[HN Gopher] FAA halts all flights at El Paso airport for 10 days
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       FAA halts all flights at El Paso airport for 10 days
        
       Author : edward
       Score  : 306 points
       Date   : 2026-02-11 09:04 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | bashtoni wrote:
       | According to CNN the entire airspace is closed, not just the
       | airport https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/11/us/faa-el-paso-texas-
       | flig...
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | Yep. TFR was issued three hours ago.
         | 
         | https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
        
         | dlcarrier wrote:
         | It's closed below 18,000 ft, over a 10 nautical mile radius:
         | https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
        
       | whizzter wrote:
       | "Special security reason", sounds like a prelude to a special
       | military operation?
        
         | c420 wrote:
         | Underground nuclear test and trying to mitigate the EMP
         | grounding proximate planes?
        
           | extraduder_ire wrote:
           | Why wouldn't that be announced in advance? It'll be
           | detectable internationally as soon as it happens.
        
             | AdamN wrote:
             | If true they would have told the Russians and the Chinese
             | and yes everybody will know after the fact. But for various
             | reasons they might not want to disclose ahead of time in
             | case Trump gets talked out of it or they realize they're
             | not ready or various other reasons (perhaps the Energy
             | Dept. doesn't actually want to do it but they're going
             | forward step by step hoping it gets halted).
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | If they already know, complaining about it in advance
               | will soften the public shock when it happens, which is
               | probably not what Russia and China want. They'd prefer
               | that the rest of the world be maximally shocked and
               | outraged by such a transgression of international norms.
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | An underground nuclear test is going to happen within ten
           | miles of El Paso airport? Sounds unlikely
        
             | c420 wrote:
             | The second TFR which was released at the same time is in
             | the NM desert directly east
             | 
             | Map of both: https://i0.wp.com/elpasomatters.org/wp-
             | content/uploads/2026/...
        
           | FrankBooth wrote:
           | EMP from an underground blast? Ok bud.
        
           | npiano wrote:
           | EMPs only occur in very high altitude tests
        
         | euroderf wrote:
         | You mean like, a three-day invasion of Mexico ?
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | Or just stirring up a bunch of ICE noise at the border.
        
       | 3D30497420 wrote:
       | Further commentary/speculation on this Reddit thread:
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/ADSB/comments/1r1pqnp/10_day_tfr_is...
       | 
       | It includes a local city Councilmember who's says he is working
       | to get more information.
        
       | KnuthIsGod wrote:
       | Launching the invasion of Canada and Greenland perhaps..
        
         | r721 wrote:
         | Invasion of Mexico is also possible ...
         | 
         | >President Donald Trump said US forces will "start now hitting
         | land" in Mexico targeting drug cartels
         | 
         | https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/09/trump-says-us-to-start-n...
         | 
         | (Jan 2026)
        
         | sph wrote:
         | Aren't those countries thousands of miles away from El Paso,
         | Texas?
        
           | donkeybeer wrote:
           | Cuba could be one. While Florida is closer, it's possible due
           | to El Paso being considered highly isolated.
        
             | sph wrote:
             | If it is for a military reason (very doubtful at this
             | point), there is a country that is literally 0 miles away
             | from El Paso.
        
               | donkeybeer wrote:
               | Mexico is also possible.
        
           | mikkupikku wrote:
           | Please understand, Geography is only taught for optional
           | extra credit in American schools.
           | 
           | (I wish this were a joke.)
        
             | soulofmischief wrote:
             | What? I had to take Geography.
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | They taught us that Geography is old fashioned so the
               | geography classes _and_ history were all replaced with
               | "Social Studies" at some time in the 80s. Most of that
               | class was just about reading holocaust books, I think we
               | had a week or two where they taught us what islands and
               | fjords are, but the only time putting names to countries
               | and capitals on a map came up was an optional extra
               | credit quiz in 8th grade. Most people skipped it.
        
               | soulofmischief wrote:
               | We had to take Geography, Social Studies, World History,
               | American History, Civics, etc. as separate classes.
               | 
               | Islands/fjords etc were covered in Geology/Earth Science,
               | and we also took separate courses for those as well.
               | 
               | Geography was reserved for understanding where things are
               | in the Earth, how borders are defined, a little bit of
               | world history as far as borders changing, etc. And also
               | Apartheid for some reason because I guess they didn't
               | know where else to stick that lesson in.
               | 
               | Rote memorization has never been my strong suit and so I
               | suffered a lot in geography as it was taught to me. I got
               | a D in that class. Now that I'm out of school and can
               | actually properly learn, it all sticks a lot better
               | because I've learned to contextualize everything and link
               | together facts.
        
           | lvspiff wrote:
           | Well you take this sharpie and draw a line and bam direct
           | line of attack - if it works for hurricanes it will work for
           | war plans
        
       | c420 wrote:
       | "A person familiar with the notices, who asked not to be
       | identified because they weren't authorized to speak publicly,
       | said the action to close airspace over a major U.S. for security
       | reasons over extended period hasn't happened since immediately
       | after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."
       | 
       | https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-s...
        
         | dlcarrier wrote:
         | It shows how bad the lack of available sources is, when they
         | interview someone familiar with the type notice in general, but
         | not this specific notice.
        
       | dlcarrier wrote:
       | Here's a direct link to the notice:
       | https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
       | 
       | Temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) tend to be pretty terse, but
       | they do usually call out "VIP" if they're due to someone
       | visiting.
       | 
       | The type listing of "security" gets thrown around a lot, though.
       | For example there's a permanent security TFR around the closest
       | Air Force base to me
       | (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_5_8746) because they
       | regularly fly unmanned aircraft that can't fly in insufficiently
       | controlled airspace, and the standard airspace layout around an
       | airport of that size isn't sufficient, so instead of making
       | special rules for that airport, there's a "security" TFR to give
       | air-traffic controllers extra control of what would normally be
       | uncontrolled airspace.
       | 
       | It is pretty unusually to get such a short notice, and to not
       | have instructions for exemptions.
        
         | seanf wrote:
         | No exemptions for medical life flights, local law enforcement,
         | or even the military. You can read a more normal NOTAM posted
         | for New Orleans likely for Mardi Gras
         | (https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2231)
         | 
         | As a Minnesotan I wonder what this does to the deportation
         | flights going to and from Camp East Montana.
        
       | heythere22 wrote:
       | https://archive.is/GCep9
        
       | metalman wrote:
       | There is a slim possibility that if it was airtraffic control
       | equipment upgrades, but that would be put in the bullitin and
       | known about long in advance, that it is just imposed with no
       | warning is wrong and just shows how the FAA is becoming more 3
       | letter every day.
        
       | altairprime wrote:
       | I wonder if this was issued by the VP's Secret Service to the FAA
       | directly; they got caught last year fucking with DC airspace
       | using a beacon spoofer, and they would (presumably, they're the
       | SS) have the authority to issue these secretly without having to
       | be named and answer for the impact:
       | https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/aviation-flights-whi...
       | 
       | (See also Die Hard 2, I suppose.)
       | 
       | But: of the "less simple than invading Mexico" theory (which
       | would be trivial to confirm or refute with binoculars and
       | telescopes) I think the nuclear testing theory is more likely, as
       | it would be in character for the current U.S. administration to
       | decide to turn a border region radioactive to both decrease both
       | the quantity of, _and_ the median fertility of, those who cross
       | the border, especially following posturing about health care
       | costs. Presumably the U.S. does not view itself as liable to
       | Mexico for across-the-border downwinder's treatment costs. Not
       | seeing a spike in KI prices in a couple spot checks, though.
       | 
       | Hopefully it's something offensive enough to finally get the
       | world to embargo Palantir.
        
         | altairprime wrote:
         | I did not have "airspace closed for ten days to shoot down a
         | drone with lasers" anywhere on my bingo card. Huh. When life
         | gives you lemons, file a TFR about it, I suppose.
        
       | Shank wrote:
       | Nuclear weapons test? The latest test treaty just expired.
       | 
       | Edit: There are two TFRs, one in El Paso and one right next to it
       | in the mountains: https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2234
        
         | baubino wrote:
         | This was my thought as well given the length of time of the
         | closure.
        
         | karlkloss wrote:
         | 3.6 roentgen you say?
        
         | massysett wrote:
         | Wouldn't the Nevada Test Site be much better for this? Huge,
         | government controlled, no major airports or cities, and
         | moreover, already used for this sort of thing.
        
         | K0balt wrote:
         | Probably just closing the airspace for the space alien
         | emissary.
        
           | c420 wrote:
           | Welcome. Tremendous to have you here. Really historic. Some
           | people said it couldn't happen, but I said keep an open mind,
           | and now look. Intergalactic diplomacy. Nobody's ever seen
           | anything like it. We're ready to make a deal, a fair deal,
           | maybe the best deal in the galaxy.
        
             | lvspiff wrote:
             | If there was ever a time for a Mars Attacks style invasion
             | it is now
        
         | Stevvo wrote:
         | I think not; it's not somewhere you can conduct a nuclear test
         | without starting a war with Mexico. However it is interesting
         | to look at the TFR area in Google maps; it looks just like a
         | nuclear test site, but the craters are natural volcanoes.
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | Mexico isn't going to start a war with the US. it would last
           | a week at most, and they'd end up glowing even more than if
           | the us 'downwinded' them all year.
        
             | mikkupikku wrote:
             | If Mexico went to war with America they would rely on
             | asymmetric insurgency tactics. They have no shortage of
             | sympathetic people in America, not just Mexican nationals
             | but native born Americans as well. America hasn't dealt
             | with a genuine domestic insurgency situation before.
        
             | beAbU wrote:
             | That's exactly what russia thought before invading the
             | Ukraine.
        
               | tw04 wrote:
               | Not to be pedantic but it's just Ukraine. It is an
               | independent country.
               | 
               | Russia calls is "the Ukraine" because they think it's
               | their territory and not an independent nation.
        
           | IsTom wrote:
           | Well, somebody has suggested nuking a tornado before. Why not
           | a vulcano?
        
       | einrealist wrote:
       | Reminds me of this: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-
       | plot-plant-bombs-c...
       | 
       | El Paso is a hub for cargo. Probably takes some days to go
       | through all that parcel.
        
       | roysting wrote:
       | I wonder if the dormant volcanic field west of El Paso that is
       | covered by the TFR may be similar to Iranian volcanic mountains?
       | 
       | Remember, the Netanyahoo just arrived in the US mere hours before
       | this and it is always a bad omen when the devil comes to collect.
        
       | einarfd wrote:
       | Could it be that USA government believe that Iran might be trying
       | to do something similar to the Ukraine operation spiderweb, where
       | they attacked the Russian long distance bomber fleet with short
       | distance FPV drones? While there aren't bombers at Fort Bliss. As
       | far as I know there are other high value targets.
        
         | mikkupikku wrote:
         | Probably the least unhinged theory in this thread, but
         | unfortunately it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If they had
         | intel about such a threat, they'd have to move all high value
         | assets to another base pronto. A flight ban won't stop a shady
         | box truck from rolling into town and releasing a swarm of small
         | drones.
         | 
         | (It would also be uncharacteristic of Iran to actually attack
         | America directly, on American soil. Try to find examples of
         | Iran doing that and you'll come up quiet short.)
        
           | roysting wrote:
           | You may want to recalibrate things. That's just about the
           | most unhinged theory here. So "Iran" is just going to go
           | "well, shucks, I guess we can't launch our drone swarm now
           | that they issued a TFR."
           | 
           | Not even to mention you're ignoring the TFR far outside and
           | away from El Paso over the Potrillo volcanic mountains
        
             | lvspiff wrote:
             | I can hear russia/iran now "darn they thwarted our plans to
             | take out el paso and that mountain. There are absolutely
             | zero other targets in the vicinity we can fly to. Zero in a
             | 100 mile radius our drone has a capability to get to within
             | 10 days. I mean if we had 11 days sure but how do they know
             | 10 days???"
        
             | mikkupikku wrote:
             | Your volcano theory is less unhinged, but most of the talk
             | is about nuclear weapons tests, which would be enormously
             | unhinged if that theory is true.
        
       | sylware wrote:
       | "Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker"
        
         | lbreakjai wrote:
         | Well surely they wouldn't block flights for ten days because of
         | ad blockers?
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | Ads are pretty risky, it could happen
        
             | sylware wrote:
             | It is alright, the site of FOX is not whatng cartel web
             | engine gated like the site of the times.
        
       | wavemode wrote:
       | If there were some mundane reason for the shutdown (e.g. ATC
       | staffing, or volcanic ash) it wouldn't be a secret, and if there
       | were an emergency (one severe enough to ground all aircraft for
       | so song) we would've heard or seen something.
       | 
       | Occam's Razor says, this order came down from Trump. If that's
       | the case, only question remaining would be what is he planning.
        
         | AnimalMuppet wrote:
         | Well, if the only comparable antecedent is closing American
         | airspace after 9/11, and that order came down from Bush, it
         | seems reasonable to suppose that this order came down from
         | Trump.
         | 
         | As for why? No clue.
        
       | sph wrote:
       | Maybe there's credible threat of MANPADs from the cartels?
       | Wouldn't be the first time around, apparently.
       | 
       | https://old.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/faa_groun...
        
         | mikkupikku wrote:
         | Stopping life flights though? The supposed risk of cartels
         | shooting down a helicopter vs the immediate risk of "this guy
         | is going to die if we don't fly him to the nearest trauma
         | center"... That risk calculus doesn't make sense.
        
           | gsk22 wrote:
           | To be fair, risk calculus does not appear to be this
           | administration's strong suit.
        
             | Errrrik wrote:
             | Lets just for a second pretend that cartel g2a attacks are
             | the legitimate threat. You now have a decision in regards
             | to sparing lives: 1 Life, ground the medivacs, vs 3-4 Lives
             | and letting them fly. Risk the life of 1 person by not
             | allowing them fly, vs risking more lives by Allowing them
             | to fly. (I had to explain it again so that you hopefully
             | understand)
             | 
             | Seems like they understand risk calculus more than you.
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | You forgot to weigh the relative likelihood of somebody
               | needing a life flight to survive vs the likelihood of
               | that flight being shot down. The first is very high, or
               | they'd not have called for a helicopter, while the second
               | is quite low even if there is a cartel psycho running
               | around with MANPADS. They're more likely to hold their
               | missile in reserve than to randomly fire it off at some
               | helicopter out of the blue.
        
       | EwanG wrote:
       | According to postings on a couple Reddit discussions, this
       | surprised the El Paso city council among others:
       | 
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1r7tu/what_does...
       | 
       | and
       | 
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/ADSB/comments/1r1pqnp/10_day_tfr_is...
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | speculations are it's either related to ICE or drug cartel
         | investigations
         | 
         | The former has a long history of not cooperating with local
         | authorities (also in ways I personally think are sometimes
         | quite malicious but that is off topic). Und normal
         | circumstances ICE would never have the power to lead to a shut
         | down of air space, but with the current administration who
         | knows.
         | 
         | And drug cartel investigations won't cooperate with the city
         | council as an investigation big enough to shut down airspace
         | wouldn't want to risk it leaking by speaking with a city
         | council about it.
         | 
         | But this is a pretty big deal and lets hope this is just about
         | preventing some high ranking drug cartel members from fleeing
         | and not some retaliatory horror story implicitly triggered by
         | the repeated public rejections and denouncements of Trump in
         | recent week. Like if we look at full (and violent)
         | dictatorships(1) you would expect an internet outage to follow
         | and then a lot of people to die.
         | 
         | (1): To be clear no the US is not a full blown violent
         | dictatorship. Even through things are bad, they are not "that"
         | bad. Through IMHO there seem to be people in the government
         | which want to make it exactly that bad.
        
           | expedition32 wrote:
           | The president has way too much executive power. In my country
           | everything is decided by a cabinet meeting in America one man
           | orders and everyone obeys.
        
             | ganzsz wrote:
             | Who forms the cabinet though? In a two party system - where
             | one party seems to be built around a personality cult -
             | cabinet can be filled with rubber stampers
        
               | ClarityJones wrote:
               | Yeah, it could be formed by one person, or from two
               | parties, or possibly by an even more opaque network of
               | influence backed by god knows who.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | The cabinet is formed with congressional approval which
               | this spineless congress did with a rubber stamp
        
             | dathinab wrote:
             | Theoretically a lot of that is true for the US.
             | 
             | It's just that
             | 
             | - both parties have undermined the separation of power, and
             | expanded power of the president repeatedly for many years
             | (e.g. with granting special privileges to the president
             | after 9/11 which where way to broad and not strictly
             | limited to a very short time)
             | 
             | - especially Trump has undermined/dismantled a lot of
             | "checks and balances" mechanisms, including in his previous
             | presidency
             | 
             | - people spreading "legal theories" which are very clearly
             | nonsensical but at least half of the countries press
             | pretending they are credible potentially true. As some are
             | about the constitution you can see this as a direct
             | propaganda attack against the US constitution. With close
             | no consequence, too.
             | 
             | - the current supreme court is IMHO strange. They are not
             | at all impartial and have interpreted laws multiple times
             | in ways which are neither backed by the laws wording nor
             | it's spirit (if you based the spirit on the history due to
             | which the laws where made) with this decision often having
             | been reasoned by what looks a lot like "make pretend
             | everything is normal excuses". But at the same time it
             | hasn't gone fully "we go with whatever Trump/Mega wants" or
             | anything like that. I can't really understand what they are
             | thinking, tbh.
             | 
             | so yes, the president has too much executive power at the
             | moment. Both more then intended with the founding of the
             | US, and in practice more then they even legally have.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | You've left out that both chambers of congress is of the
               | same party as POTUS and have abdicated their part in
               | checks and balances.
        
           | RIMR wrote:
           | >To be clear no the US is not a full blown violent
           | dictatorship.
           | 
           | The key word you forgot here is "yet".
           | 
           | >Even through things are bad, they are not "that" bad.
           | 
           | They will get "that" bad if you take on the attitude that
           | things aren't that bad.
           | 
           | >IMHO there seem to be people in the government which want to
           | make it exactly that bad.
           | 
           | We should act accordingly then.
        
         | shaky-carrousel wrote:
         | They probably lost a nuke in the area. Wouldn't be the first
         | time.
        
           | pandemic_region wrote:
           | Honest question: do you mean it was stolen or it fell out of
           | the plane by accident or something like that?
        
             | throwaway173738 wrote:
             | Probably the latter.
        
             | shaky-carrousel wrote:
             | I mean it fell out. It has happened before.
        
             | _boffin_ wrote:
             | Check out the book Command & Control by Eric Schlosser
        
             | jffry wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_nuclear_acci
             | d...
        
       | fabian2k wrote:
       | There is a circular restriction around the airport and a
       | trapezoid one next to the city
       | (https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-
       | order-s...).
       | 
       | What are the plausible explanations here? I can't think of
       | anything except military action against Mexico (or the cartels
       | inside Mexico). But even that doesn't fit well.
       | 
       | A suspected terror attack could explain the airspace around the
       | airport, but not the weird trapezoid restriction next to the
       | city.
       | 
       | The duration of 10 days is also weird, that seems very long for
       | any kind of emergency situation. And as far as I understand, it
       | is unusual to have no exceptions at all here e.g. for medical
       | transports via helicopter.
        
         | mothballed wrote:
         | Most plausible comment I found on the internet was the
         | government lost something in that trapezoid and doesn't want
         | anyone to fly over it and find it until it's collected.
        
           | RupertSalt wrote:
           | Ah, so an alien's contact lens
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Roswel is a few hours away by car. Interesting theory but
             | they would lose it there.
        
           | morkalork wrote:
           | Quick, someone call Skinner and get Mulder and Scully on the
           | case!
        
           | thebruce87m wrote:
           | Broken Arrow?
        
         | viraptor wrote:
         | The not-totally-crazy ideas from Reddit include:
         | 
         | - it's related to the annouced GPS disruption test (although
         | that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent enough)
         | 
         | - someone in Mexico is getting kidnapped by Gov
         | 
         | - nuclear tests
         | 
         | I wish those were crazy ideas, but here we are...
        
           | RupertSalt wrote:
           | > GPS disruption
           | 
           | Ah, a very plausible explanation!
           | 
           | https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-
           | area-...
           | 
           | The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the
           | region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS
           | exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely
           | to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.
           | 
           | Isn't it possible that a 10-day TFR could be lifted early
           | once the concern is past? They've probably made it 10 days
           | just to establish an upper bound.
        
             | Johnny555 wrote:
             | If it's just routine testing, then why couldn't they have
             | announced it earlier to allow companies to plan and/or fly
             | their planes out of the affected area?
        
             | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
             | > > The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and
             | the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if
             | the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been
             | more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.
             | 
             | Wait so people in South Texas won't be able to use GPS on
             | the ground either?
             | 
             | Also if the goal is to disrupt the cartels and the people
             | using GPS to know where they are at in the process of
             | crossing the border illegally why is the Army involved in
             | this at all?
             | 
             | The Army has no business in taking part of operations to
             | disrupt cartels and illegal immigration, it's the whole
             | rational behind having 3 letters agency including the evil
             | one that rose to prominence lately
        
               | derektank wrote:
               | The Global Positioning System is owned and operated by
               | Space Delta 8 at Schriever Space Force Base in CO[1].
               | Testing in collaboration the US Army (the primary
               | customer of GPS services) is hardly noteworthy.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.spaceforce.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Fact-
               | Sheet-D...
        
           | throw0101a wrote:
           | > _- it 's related to the annouced GPS disruption test
           | (although that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent
           | enough)_
           | 
           | Those are done regularly without TFRs. See recent example in
           | Texas:
           | 
           | * https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-
           | area-...
           | 
           | A link to a list of notices at:
           | 
           | * https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/gps-service-interruptions
        
           | bdbdbdb wrote:
           | I don't know which Reddit thread you're reading (there are
           | many I'm sure) but the one in r/Aviation seems to have a
           | favourite theory that there was a credible threat of someone
           | with MANPADS, which are shoulder-launched surface-to-air
           | missiles and not some sort of sanitary product.
           | 
           | Apparently they have a ceiling of 18,000ft which is exactly
           | the limit of the restriction in El Paso. Aircraft are allowed
           | fly over if they go above that
        
             | alex43578 wrote:
             | That's also just the cutoff for class A airspace. I think
             | people are reading too much into the specific height.
        
         | tootie wrote:
         | I honestly assume it's something petty. Like an El Paso air
         | traffic controller was rude to a deportation flight pilot.
        
         | nateburke wrote:
         | My guess is nuclear test.
         | 
         | Airport circle to secure the transport of the device to the
         | ground adjacent to the test site.
         | 
         | Trapezoid is the test site, wider on the side that is less
         | controllable (border-facing).
         | 
         | Disconnected because two separate teams executed in parallel
         | without informed oversight.
        
           | estearum wrote:
           | ... I don't think they're detonating a nuclear weapon in a
           | National Monument 50 miles from a large US city...
           | 
           | There are plenty of better places for them to do this.
        
             | peyton wrote:
             | It's probably not SOP to land nuclear weapons at the
             | municipal airport either.
        
               | jjk166 wrote:
               | There is a military base with its own airfield located
               | within El Paso basically right next to El Paso
               | International Airport.
        
             | nateburke wrote:
             | NTS was 60-80 mi away from Las Vegas.
             | 
             | yes there might be safer locations for an underground
             | nuclear test, but how many of them offer the same "F U" PR
             | capacity relative to Mexico/Juarez/cartels, etc.
        
               | estearum wrote:
               | A nuclear weapon is only "F U" PR to cartels if you
               | believe they're literally braindead, which given that
               | they run massive international businesses, I suspect
               | they're not.
               | 
               | Nukes mean nothing to a cartel. What an insane idea.
        
           | kakacik wrote:
           | While Mexican side has no restrictions - that would be
           | supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking.
           | Tons of civilians dead with clear reason who caused it,
           | completely preventable.
           | 
           | Fantasy often likes extreme options but most probably saner
           | reason like expected strike on cartels and their retaliation
           | is whats happening.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | >supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking
             | 
             | So 100% Trump
        
         | elictronic wrote:
         | Probably laser shootdown of drug carrying drones.
        
         | superb_dev wrote:
         | Another interesting note, the trapezoidal TFR is still in place
        
       | october8140 wrote:
       | Strike on Mexico incoming.
        
         | m4ck_ wrote:
         | Anything to distract from Congress getting unredacted access to
         | Trumps good friend's files/emails and naming 6 of their
         | potential clients.
        
       | codeduck wrote:
       | Am I hallucinating? Wasn't there just an identical thread on the
       | front page not even an hour ago?
        
         | altairprime wrote:
         | Email the mods and they'll check and merge the dupes :)
        
         | baq wrote:
         | You aren't, probably was flagged down by not being hacker
         | enough (or more likely for being an open invitation to runaway
         | speculation without any grounding in reality and facts)
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | Proper hackers are interested in homeschool propaganda, but
           | not in closed airspace.
        
           | graemep wrote:
           | This also seems to be an open invitation to runaway
           | speculation.
           | 
           | A lot of the speculation is ridiculous given only a small
           | area has been closed. That is not a prelude to war, for
           | example!
        
             | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
             | War no, but extraction absolutely.
             | 
             | Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire were closed off the day before
             | Maduro's extraction
        
           | uncivilized wrote:
           | You've just described every comment section on HackerNews.
        
           | debo_ wrote:
           | *runway speculation
        
       | baq wrote:
       | Millions of dollars of stuck planes and cargo. If it was
       | somebody's fantasy, it sure was an expensive one - but I'm not
       | sure I want to know what it was if it was a real thing
        
         | anilakar wrote:
         | Don't worry. Mexico will pay for it 100 %.
        
         | thinkcontext wrote:
         | Probably $Bs. Around 100 flights per day from there, so there
         | would be dozens of planes on the ground.
        
       | markus_zhang wrote:
       | Aliens? I want to believe...
        
       | voxadam wrote:
       | Judging by the previous actions of this administration --
       | _Operation Metro Surge 2: Tex-Mex Boogaloo_
        
       | vincnetas wrote:
       | Map :
       | 
       | https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_0091
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | It seems like you linked to a different area on the border to
         | Mexicali?
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | that link shows the wrong blocked airspace in my case
         | 
         | (it shows that some areas above the border in the desert are
         | blocked off, which makes sense to fight drug smuggling by
         | drones without risking mistaking drones with aircrafts)
         | 
         | but he article is about the new circular zone directly placed
         | over El Paso with El Paso International Airport directly in
         | it's center. (Interestingly because they used a circle it
         | technically covers the Mexican side of the boarder including a
         | part of the airport on their side, but practically FAA can't
         | shut down Mexican airspace so it's misleading).
         | 
         | Also worth noting there is:
         | 
         | - Holloman Air Force Base
         | 
         | - White Sands Missile Range
         | 
         | - Fort Bliss
         | 
         | - Fort Bliss McGregor Range
         | 
         | direct besides the city
         | 
         | so a Military exercise, or deployment of Military (Trump has
         | said he will bomb cartel hideouts in Mexico) can be added to
         | the list of possibilities
        
         | imglorp wrote:
         | This one's responding.
         | 
         | https://skyvector.com/?ll=31.836456906566234,-106.7029640846...
        
       | incomingpain wrote:
       | https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
       | 
       | This isnt a particularly special thing. It's a catchall rule and
       | given the identical one to the west, it looks like a common
       | military one.
        
         | baq wrote:
         | Neither military nor medevac is exempted. This is unusual.
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | The medevac is scary. This could cost lives. Hopefully
           | there's a reason but, given how clumsy this admin is, who can
           | say?
        
       | u1hcw9nx wrote:
       | Action to close airspace over a major city in the US for security
       | reasons over extended period hasn't happened since 9/11.
       | 
       | 10 day closure for security reasons seems really long.
       | 
       | edit: Same restriction imposed around Santa Teresa, New Mexico.
       | ~15 miles northwest of the El Paso airport.
        
         | le-mark wrote:
         | El Paso is the 6th largest city in Texas so not "major" but
         | certainly large.
        
           | SirFatty wrote:
           | Ft. Bliss is there as well...
        
           | u1hcw9nx wrote:
           | 25th largest in the United States.
        
       | meindnoch wrote:
       | Crashed alien vehicle recovery?
        
       | xyst wrote:
       | Has anybody checked the pizza/chinese takeout traffic in DC?
        
         | w0de0 wrote:
         | Nothing unusual - DOUGHCON 4: https://www.pizzint.watch/
        
       | bdbdbdb wrote:
       | To me the trapezoid suggests something traveling south fell in
       | the area. Narrow at the top, wide at the bottom.
       | 
       | Maybe they dropped a nuke by accident (again)
        
         | kijin wrote:
         | That looks like a rather flat trapezoid for something that fell
         | from high above.
         | 
         | With a fast-moving object, we can usually tell its trajectory
         | across the map much more accurately than we can tell where
         | along that trajectory it impacted the ground. See: MH370.
        
           | jjk166 wrote:
           | The area they would expect to find it would be much narrower
           | than the area they would expect a plane overhead to be able
           | to observe it.
        
           | daemonologist wrote:
           | Maybe fits the "DoD is shooting something at some kind of
           | incoming drone" explanation - they know they're shooting
           | _from_ the top of the trapezoid but in terms of direction,
           | only that they're vaguely facing south. (Doesn't really
           | explain why the TFR doesn't extend into Mexico though.)
        
       | con wrote:
       | FAA closed another airspace nearby:
       | https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2234
       | 
       | - From February 11, 2026 at 0630 UTC (February 10, 2026 at 2330
       | MST)
       | 
       | - To February 21, 2026 at 0630 UTC (February 20, 2026 at 2330
       | MST)
       | 
       | My guess is nuclear tests
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | it's too spontaneous for that
         | 
         | it it's "just" a training exercise or test they could have
         | announced the closing weeks or month before it happening
         | massively reducing the cost fallout from it
         | 
         | not that the current administration has in generally acted with
         | care when it comes to causing huge financial damage to US
         | cities, especially such they don't like
        
       | vjvjvjvjghv wrote:
       | "For special security reasons". Is a "special military operation
       | " following? Maybe somebody in Mexico said something mean about
       | the president.
       | 
       | But seriously, is this normal without any explanation? The cost
       | must be enormous.
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | it's in general highly abnormal
         | 
         | which kinda makes it normal to not have a explanation
         | 
         | because anything abnormal enough to cause something like that
         | is also likely something kept secret until it's done
         | 
         | (Like large scale operations against drug cartel, "special
         | military operation", or a large scale ICE operation which
         | shouldn't be able to cause this but does because the current
         | administration is uh, what it is.)
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | My money is on misplaced black budget project craft
       | 
       | Maybe that new F-47 did a trump and fell asleep somewhere in the
       | desert
        
         | cucumber3732842 wrote:
         | That's kind of what I'm thinking too though my money would be
         | on something like "super secret stealth cruise missile ripped
         | off it's mounting pylon" or control software went crazy rather
         | than an airframe loss.
         | 
         | It's likely be something small enough and with little/no fuel
         | because if it left a big smoking hole they'd find it quick. And
         | it's gotta be something with fairly questionable aerodynamic
         | properties (i.e. damaged) or questionable guidance (i.e not an
         | inadvertently released bomb) otherwise they'd have a very good
         | idea of where it landed.
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | But they didn't block the desert, only air zone and also only
         | directly above the city not beyond it.
        
       | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
       | The entire conspiracy theory industry is praying that the closure
       | runs its course for the established 10 days and then everything
       | is re-opened and the reasons behind the closure are not further
       | explained or even better become classified
       | 
       | Not saying this isn't suspect though.
        
       | jmatthiass wrote:
       | As someone else mentioned, there's some speculation in aviation
       | subreddits that the bounds of the altitude restriction map to the
       | MANPAD capabilities that some cartels are purported to have.
       | 
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1r1s4zt/comment/o...
       | 
       | My read is that the admin is planning forceful strikes on the
       | cartels within Mexico and is worried about their ability to
       | retaliate by taking down US aircraft across the border.
       | 
       | Edit: The closure has now been kiboshed. The wording seems a
       | little "don't panic-y" to me, but better that than the
       | alternative! https://x.com/FAANews/status/2021583720465969421
        
         | derbOac wrote:
         | Would that account for the trapezoidal shape of the one
         | restricted area?
        
           | torpfactory wrote:
           | My bet is a showy armored advance though the open terrain
           | near there... it'll look great on camera! /s
        
         | mothballed wrote:
         | It seems crazy not to just, tell people that if that's what it
         | is. "Hey if you are flying above 18,000 please don't go lower
         | because you could be blown up by a MANPAD."
         | 
         | If the cartels have MANPADS then our intel is already blown by
         | issuing the TFR, so what's the harm in just saying it out loud?
        
           | gordonhart wrote:
           | Mass panic? Think of how wildly it would be misrepresented in
           | the media and how disruptive it would be to all air travel in
           | the country. People aren't rational actors and the most
           | sensationalized headline is what ends up spreading
        
           | spacephysics wrote:
           | For your first point, on the off chance they have other
           | equipment capable of surpassing MANPADS I'd prefer as a
           | passenger they just fly around.
           | 
           | Second point, it's not obvious if its for MANPAD reasons or
           | it's our own operation though we can speculate.
        
             | mothballed wrote:
             | I'm not sure if the person I replied to edited their
             | comment, or I looked at the wrong one, but the one I
             | originally read said the TFR only had the restriction below
             | 18,000 ft. I was addressing it on that basis, which wasn't
             | requiring people flying above that to route around it.
        
         | Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote:
         | Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US
         | airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy
         | retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.
        
           | jmatthiass wrote:
           | Good point. I guess it depends on the force, size, and
           | especially effectiveness of any potential strikes. (i.e. How
           | cornered a cartel might feel and how much flexing an outsized
           | response might stand to gain them.)
        
           | estearum wrote:
           | Mistakes happen though
        
           | mothballed wrote:
           | Unless the government is planning an attack on the cartel[s]
           | that is so existential that such action wouldn't be
           | considered an escalation but rather a tic for tat.
           | 
           | A trapped animal will generally use all its facilities
           | regardless of its expected effectiveness.
        
             | beepbooptheory wrote:
             | Remember that there is no "the" cartel, just so many
             | different towns and interests and bribed officials. It
             | makes it a significant (and perhaps convenient) misnomer
             | dont get me wrong, but maybe important to remember.
             | 
             | Extremely good, highly researched book if you want to get
             | angry at me or call me idiot!
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_Cartels_Do_Not_Exist
        
           | mattmaroon wrote:
           | Unless we start bombing them first. That's not hard to
           | imagine these days.
        
             | ibejoeb wrote:
             | Not hard to imagine these days? Wouldn't you hope for an
             | intervention if it were known that a hostile, state-level
             | military planned to down civilian aircraft?
        
               | _joel wrote:
               | What happened after
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
               | ?
        
               | ibejoeb wrote:
               | I can't read your mind.
        
               | KPGv2 wrote:
               | I had a quick check, and there were zero Americans on
               | board this Malaysian aircraft shot down by a nuclear
               | power over Ukraine, so I don't know how you think it's
               | relevant to an American aircraft full of Americans being
               | shot down in American airspace by cartels immediately on
               | the other side of the American border.
               | 
               | EDIT: Unless you think Malaysia not bombing the Kremlin
               | in retribution is somehow indicative of how America would
               | respond to the situation we're actually talking about.
        
           | reactordev wrote:
           | Coming from groups that just pickup busses of people to
           | murder, I wouldn't be so sure that firing back at the US
           | would be out of the question.
        
             | nessbot wrote:
             | Murdering buses of people doesn't bring the full force of
             | the US military on them. The difference is the risk not the
             | depravity.
        
               | p-e-w wrote:
               | This is the answer. The cartels would have to be insane
               | to poke that particular bear. They would get crushed like
               | a bug. IIRC they murdered a single US undercover officer
               | in the 90s and the retaliation was so bad that they
               | themselves handed over the perpetrators.
        
               | BoredPositron wrote:
               | You are right rationality is their strongest character
               | trait.
        
               | the_sleaze_ wrote:
               | The cartels are incredibly rational - what they lack are
               | morals and ethics
        
               | KPGv2 wrote:
               | Do you have much evidence of them behaving irrationally?
        
               | mmh0000 wrote:
               | I would recommend reading the Freakinomics book or listen
               | to their podcasts on drugs.
               | 
               | TL;DR: drug cartels are run like businesses. They are
               | very rational. But, unlike your boss, their boss can also
               | shoot you in the face if you annoy them too much
        
               | 542354234235 wrote:
               | How are they not rational? Violence is a tool. They
               | operate an illegal business so they can't sue other
               | parties for breach of contract. They can't call the
               | police if they are robbed or file an insurance claim for
               | what was taken. Even the over-the-top violence has a
               | rationale. They aren't punishing the victims as much as
               | they are attempting to broadcast that there is a higher
               | price to be paid than any gain from giving information,
               | to reduce their future losses and enforcement efforts. It
               | isn't moral or ethical, but I wouldn't say it is
               | irrational.
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | Lots of organized crime around the world manages to
               | operate without cutting all the limbs off somebody then
               | arranging them like flowers in a "vase" made out of the
               | poor soul's ribcage. The cartels take violence far beyond
               | what is pragmatically necessary. Their system of crime
               | breeds excessive violence and insanity.
        
               | xkcd-sucks wrote:
               | Marketing, if you don't know the answer it's always
               | marketing
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | This stuff mostly followed after the zetas. It was a very
               | deliberate strategy to compete in a hostile landscape
               | that others eventually copied to survive.
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | It's notable that a lot of the Zetas came from a military
               | special forces background, making it seem as if their
               | extreme brutality was a strategic choice inculcated
               | during their training.
               | 
               | https://ctc.westpoint.edu/a-profile-of-los-zetas-mexicos-
               | sec...
        
               | coolhand2120 wrote:
               | > How are they not rational?
               | 
               | It's the meth.
        
               | colechristensen wrote:
               | It's a business not an ideology.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | _> They would get crushed like a bug._
               | 
               | Much as I despise them, I'm not so sure that would be the
               | case. I seem to remember folks saying the same about the
               | Taliban, and the cartels have a lot more money and high-
               | tech kit, than the Taliban.
               | 
               | Asymmetric warfare is a tough gig, on all sides.
        
               | janalsncm wrote:
               | I don't think the technology matters nearly as much as
               | the asymmetry. Iraq had better technology than the
               | Taliban and their military didn't last a week.
        
               | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
               | True enough, but the cartels are also experts at running
               | what is basically guerrilla warfare, against each other.
               | Not sure if the Mexican Army has ever tried to take them
               | on. A lot of cartel soldiers come from the army.
        
               | mmooss wrote:
               | That conflates two very different things:
               | 
               | * A conventional military war, on a battlefield: Neither
               | Saddam Hussein's military nor the cartels nor the Taliban
               | would last long against the US.
               | 
               | * An unconventional insurgency: The Iraqis quickly turned
               | to this approach and it worked very well for them, as it
               | did for the Taliban. The Taliban won, and the Iraqi
               | insurgency almost drove the US out of Iraq and was
               | eventually co-opted.
               | 
               | The cartels of course would choose the latter. They, the
               | Taliban, etc. are not suicidal.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | I think the key difference between the Taliban and the
               | cartels is that the Taliban were a bunch of ideologues
               | who actually enjoyed being an insurgency and living under
               | siege in caves, with making money from the drugs trade
               | being a mere means to their real purpose of fighting
               | infidels, whereas the cartel leadership sees wealth and
               | power from controlling the drugs trade as an end,
               | crushing local rivals as a means, and would really rather
               | avoid the sort of conflict that's bad for their medium
               | term business prospects.
               | 
               | I mean, some sort of cartels would bounce back after any
               | "war on drugs" because supply and demand, but the people
               | running them aren't hankering for martyrdom or glory over
               | consolidating their territory and accumulating.
        
               | Noaidi wrote:
               | How did that full force of the US military work out in
               | Vietnam?
        
               | kgermino wrote:
               | Pretty badly for both sides
        
               | randallsquared wrote:
               | It was never used, there.
        
               | antonymoose wrote:
               | Millions of dead Vietnamese.
               | 
               | In any case that was a war against a hardened,
               | experienced, determined enemy fighting for its freedom
               | from any form of colonial occupation, both as a formal
               | military and as an insurgent force in South Vietnam.
               | 
               | I scarcely think the Mexican population would rise up in
               | defense of the cartels here.
        
               | boringg wrote:
               | I think a lot of people would be cheering on the
               | destruction of the cartels.
        
               | colechristensen wrote:
               | The destruction of cartels would involve careful policing
               | and corruption controls, the best American
               | administrations have been bad at this. The worst... can
               | barely put its pants on much less dismantle foreign
               | organized crime. You can't shoot a missile at a cartel
               | and poof it's just gone.
        
               | ryandrake wrote:
               | They'd probably quickly stop cheering as their own homes
               | and families were destroyed as collateral damage, which
               | is what would happen if the "full force of the US
               | military" were deployed against the cartels.
        
               | TitaRusell wrote:
               | The last time America invaded Mexico City it created
               | martyrs. It's a fascinating story that they do not teach
               | at US highschools lol.
        
               | anigbrowl wrote:
               | We were briefly greeted as liberators in Iraq too.
        
               | adolph wrote:
               | A non-aligned population will look out for their own
               | interests and are aware that the attention of the US is
               | temporary but the cuadillismo that lead to cartels are a
               | durable cultural artifact.                 The Battle of
               | Culiacan, also known locally as the Culiacanazo and Black
               | Thursday, was a failed attempt to capture Ovidio Guzman
               | Lopez, son of Sinaloa        Cartel kingpin Joaquin "El
               | Chapo" Guzman, who was wanted in the United States
               | for drug trafficking.              Around 700 cartel
               | gunmen began to attack civilian, government and military
               | targets around the city, despite orders from Ovidio sent
               | at security forces'        request. Massive towers of
               | smoke could be seen rising from burning cars and
               | vehicles. The cartels were well-equipped, with improvised
               | armored vehicles,        bulletproof vests, .50 caliber
               | (12.7 mm) rifles, rocket launchers, grenade
               | launchers and heavy machine guns.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culiac%C3%A1n
        
               | boringg wrote:
               | I don't really think you thought through that one. It
               | sounds like what your saying is that the Vietnamese won
               | and thats the outcome that matters. It does matter but
               | that isn't the issue - it is the cost that everyone is
               | talking about: the amount of destruction that was brought
               | upon the country and people was terrible.
        
             | infecto wrote:
             | The distinction is those are cases where they are murdering
             | Mexican citizens. If a cartel murdered a bus of people in
             | America I suspect most any administration would retaliate
             | in some form.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | Dude, Americans are getting kidnapped and murdered in
               | Mexico all the time. The cartels don't care your
               | nationality.
               | 
               | If the administration strikes cartels first, they may
               | find it egregious enough to do what they refused to do in
               | the past...
               | 
               | I don't rule out any options when it comes to murderous
               | organizations.
               | 
               | *EDIT* This isn't me saying don't go to Mexico or that
               | Mexico is unsafe either. Out of the tourists that visit
               | from America, 0.001% see violence or are kidnapped or
               | anything negative. If anything it would be petty theft
               | near cruise ports and resort towns that would be the
               | biggest culprit of crime for Americans.
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | I think the GP was referring to buses on US soil rather
               | than Americans on buses in Mexico.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | Cartels only strike their own on US soil...
        
               | infecto wrote:
               | You're missing the point. Absolutely cartel violence
               | impacts all types of people in the US and Mexico but
               | large scale brutal violence that is usually saved for
               | Mexico since unfortunately the Mexican federal government
               | does not have control in most of the regions.
               | 
               | There is a huge difference between a one off gang killing
               | in the US and someone taking a whole grey hound bus and
               | burying the bodies in the desert.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | Which is why I bring up their affinity for going after
               | busses of people, because they have, in Mexico...
               | 
               | The world does not stop at the Us border.
        
               | infecto wrote:
               | "Dude", murdering a us citizen in Mexico is different
               | than murdering an entire bus of people on US soil.
               | 
               | You say it's happening all the time but then say it's
               | .01%.
               | 
               | Looked it up myself, maybe 40 to 300 people annually.
               | Hard to discern how many of those are pure tourism vs
               | visiting family. I suspect you have a greater risk
               | visiting family, especially if it's a border town.
               | 
               | 13.5mm US citizens visit d Mexico in 2024 so .00002% got
               | kidnapped. I bet that number is even lower when you
               | separate pure tourism vs dual nationals or similar going
               | back home to visit.
               | 
               | The point is any action taken on US soil in a large
               | capacity would be seen as an attack by any
               | administration.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | I never said "In the US" guy
        
               | infecto wrote:
               | Why are you being so rude, dude?
               | 
               | Your right anything can happen but any large attack on US
               | grounds or equally blowing up a plane on either side of
               | the border is going to bring the full weight of the US on
               | the cartels. It makes little sense. Cartels have for
               | decades ingrained that into their organizations no matter
               | how violent that may be.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | Dismissing their violence is rude. They are capable and
               | willing to do whatever. As evidenced here
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_San_Fernando_massacre
               | 
               | It's a much bigger problem that you all realize. Right
               | now they have authorized attacks on border patrol
               | agents...
               | 
               | I'm not saying that the US wouldn't retaliate, I'm saying
               | our enemies are getting bolder under this
               | administration's pressure. Turns out the closure was
               | because of drones... But it's still a real issue in
               | Mexico that Mexico would love the eradicate.
        
               | jghn wrote:
               | > Dude, Americans are getting kidnapped and murdered in
               | Mexico all the time
               | 
               | Dude, can you put some numbers with a citation behind
               | that? Then we can extrapolate a risk ratio and see if it
               | really merits the "all the time" claim.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | https://cuid.mx/en/blogs/seguridad/la-realidad-de-los-
               | secues...
               | 
               | https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-
               | tracker/conflict/crimina...
               | 
               | https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/8f3ac9f0-a827-455f-bf
               | 61-...
        
               | jghn wrote:
               | No one disagreed it happens. You claimed it happened "all
               | the time". Unless I"m missing it, your links don't
               | provide numbers of how many Americans are kidnapped &
               | murdered per year. Further, it'd be useful to compare
               | that to the overall number of American visitors to
               | Mexico.
               | 
               | I'm going to go out on a limb and claim it's a small
               | fraction of a percent that find themselves kidnapped &
               | murdered "all the time". But prove me wrong.
        
               | matwood wrote:
               | Of course things happen sometimes. But, the cartels
               | typically do not want to mess with Americans,
               | particularly in tourist areas, because that brings heat
               | they don't want. It's literally bad for business.
        
             | xtracto wrote:
             | This is different.
             | 
             | See, Drug cartels over here operate with the blessing and
             | favor of our president. They are tightly connected.
             | 
             | If a cartel dared to ground a US flight. The US government
             | would have a "free pass" to break all hell loose in Mexico,
             | and Sheinbaum wouldn't have a way to stop it.
             | 
             | She doesn't want that in any way, so the message to the
             | cartel bosses would be to be very careful in that respect.
             | 
             | Sure, there have been US citizens killed within Mexico here
             | and there, but those can easily be attributed to local
             | violence. And as retribution, Mexican government sends a
             | couple of wanted criminals to the US.
        
               | ekidd wrote:
               | Yeah, if a cartel actually used anti-aircraft weapons on
               | a US passenger plane in US airspace? It wouldn't even
               | matter if MAGA or the Democrats were in charge. The US
               | would collectively lose its shit and spend the next 10
               | years and several trillion dollars retaliating against
               | the cartels. The media would be ecstatic, because it
               | would give them a decade of story arcs, starting with
               | "our brave troops in uniform" all the way through to
               | covering the eventual quagmire and anti-war protests. By
               | year 6-8, editorial columnists would be writing columns
               | reconsidering their initial support for the war.
               | 
               | Please, let's not do this.
        
             | resters wrote:
             | who are we (the US)? People who wantonly murder people on
             | fishing boats, etc.
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | I'm not saying our cartel is any better...
        
               | ultrarunner wrote:
               | Your use of "our" makes me wonder if the people of Mexico
               | see the drug cartels as "theirs".
        
               | reactordev wrote:
               | Merely pointing out that the US administration is
               | operating like a cartel now a days.
               | 
               | I doubt Mexicans see the Mexican cartels as "theirs" in
               | the same way. Cartels have only been interested in paying
               | off politicians and (as far as I'm aware) weren't
               | interested in being politicians. However, our politicians
               | here... would LOVE to be Cartel members and make millions
               | it seems. Because they definitely don't give a shit about
               | law and order.
        
           | philistine wrote:
           | If that aircraft held a person they wanted dead, I would not
           | put it past them.
        
           | bpodgursky wrote:
           | Yes that might be the high-level logic, but if you give a
           | MANPAD to a 19 year old sicario on meth, accidents do happen.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | I think you misunderstood that movie.
        
         | torpfactory wrote:
         | My read is most likely some kind of strike on the cartels.
         | There hasn't seemed to be any significant US military buildup
         | so it's something they'll be able to do with a smaller force.
         | 
         | The trapezoid makes me worried about a ground incision there-
         | it extends to the border and would be a cover space for an
         | invasion force. Absolutely bonkers that we are even having this
         | discussion.
         | 
         | The TFR is most likely contingency planning for possible
         | retaliation by cartel drones and the need to keep the airspace
         | clear so they can see (with radar) and shoot down drones and
         | not passenger aircraft.
        
           | grosswait wrote:
           | You are the first person to mention invasion. Kind of bonkers
           | to jump to that conclusion.
        
             | torpfactory wrote:
             | It is totally nuts. We will see I guess. If there will be a
             | ground invasion, people will see the convoys moving into
             | position. You can't really hide that much stuff.
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | Unfortunately, we find ourselves living in a bonkers time.
        
             | alexissantos wrote:
             | Nuts, definitely. Bonkers to jump to that conclusion? No,
             | especially with this US administration. Mexico itself is
             | concerned enough about the possibility that it's made
             | statements to make it clear it wouldn't be acceptable.
             | Mexico thinks it's nuts, too, but not bonkers to think the
             | US might do it.
             | 
             | US troops in Mexico 'not on the table', Sheinbaum tells
             | Trump https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260112-us-
             | troops-mexi...
        
               | niij wrote:
               | She's on the Cartel payroll. Of course she would say
               | that. You can't be a simple mayor without cartel
               | involvement in Mexico.
        
               | malfist wrote:
               | > She's on the Cartel payroll
               | 
               | > You can't be a simple mayor without cartel involvement
               | in Mexico.
               | 
               | I don't know what world you're living in, but this is
               | absolutely not the case. Mexico is not a failed state,
               | don't get all your news from places trying to scare you.
        
             | ranger_danger wrote:
             | Other commenters here in this thread as well as many people
             | on reddit and other sites about this news are also saying
             | the same thing. Our minds are not as unique as we think :)
        
           | matthewaveryusa wrote:
           | What's also bonkers is our political whimpiness that allowed
           | this to happen, right? If there is a drone response it's
           | pretty damning evidence that we are way too dovish in our
           | policy against drug smuggling up until now
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | It doesn't say much either way.
             | 
             | I'm from the UK, we had the ("real") IRA put a RPG-22 anti-
             | tank rocket at the walls of MI6 HQ (the UK version of the
             | CIA): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_MI6_attack
             | 
             | Dangerous things like these are _not_ expensive, compared
             | to even low budget small-time group.
        
               | gsck wrote:
               | I mean the RIRA is a splinter group of the PIRA which had
               | massive funding from overseas, especially from the United
               | States. PIRA was not a small-time group.
        
         | pigbearpig wrote:
         | "Maybe, or maybe FL180 is a nice clean line for class A
         | airspace. No need to bother transcontinental flights for a
         | local issue."
         | 
         | Way more plauible
        
           | petesergeant wrote:
           | What does that mean sorry?
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | FL180 is 18000 feet, meaning that flights OVER don't need
             | to divert.
        
               | mazugrin2 wrote:
               | It is a pedantic but meaningful distinction that I'd only
               | point out on a sorta geeky site like this, but actually,
               | FL180 (or, flight level one-eight-zero) is the altitude
               | at which an altimeter will read 18,000 feet if it's set
               | to assume that the barometric pressure is 1013 hPa (29.92
               | inHg). Above a certain transition altitude, aircraft
               | switch their altimeters from reading altitude in the
               | local pressure to this "standard" pressure. This is
               | because above that altitude and safely away from terrain,
               | it's no longer important to know precisely how high you
               | are, but it _is_ important to know what altitude you are
               | relative to all the other aircraft nearby.
        
             | anovikov wrote:
             | That it limits local flights but not international ones as
             | they fly higher.
        
             | reactordev wrote:
             | It means that you have no business being below FL180 or
             | 18,000ft to enter this airspace.
        
             | Someone1234 wrote:
             | It means any aircraft transitioning over the area at high
             | altitude isn't impacted, because they're too high to care.
             | 
             | It is a ground and "everything near the ground" stop.
             | Meaning low altitude helicopters and private aircraft have
             | to consider it, even transitioning, but realistically
             | commercial aircraft not taking off/landing in the area
             | won't.
        
           | satiated_grue wrote:
           | FL180 is the floor of Class A airspace, "the flight levels",
           | where airliners etc. operate.
           | 
           | Relevant chapter from FAA "Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical
           | Knowledge":
           | https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/17_phak_ch15.pdf
           | 
           | In the "Flight Levels", altitudes are referred to not in feet
           | above sea level but as "FLxxx" where xxx is a nominal
           | altitude in 100s of feet.
           | 
           | Altimetry is done using barometric pressure. Since this
           | varies with weather, airplanes at lower altitudes set their
           | altimeters to the local barometric pressure for a reasonably
           | accurate reading. In the flight levels, where planes are
           | typically covering ground quickly and there is very little
           | chance of your path conflicting with the surface of the
           | Earth, every plane sets to an agreed-upon reference of 29.92
           | inches of mercury as the altimeter setting.
        
         | omgJustTest wrote:
         | Knowing the restriction goes to 18k certainly says that either
         | S-A or A-S reach must be limited but the as your post points
         | out no buffer between MANPAD actual range and the limit
         | imposed. I think unlikely to say MANPAD, specifically.
         | 
         | There's a small private airfield to the west with only a single
         | victor airway connecting to el-paso. the victors end at 17999
         | ft, effectively cutting traffic for non-commercial or non-
         | business jet operators.
         | 
         | Closure of the victor airway there seems, again limiting
         | airborne craft due to airborne hazards.
         | 
         | Hazards in the air, near the surface that are, seemingly,
         | unplanned with a cone pointing at mexico.
         | 
         | That's kind of the most anyone will get until more info, could
         | be some urgent testing of some capability or response to small
         | craft (drones) coming over the boarder. Emergency timing could
         | be to garner interest or emphasize importance, which works well
         | politically.
         | 
         | Las Cruces International Airport and Dana Jetport are
         | unaffected.
        
           | timbre1234 wrote:
           | The restriction goes to 18k because that's the top of VFR
           | space. Anyone operating above 18k has to be on an IFR
           | clearance and under positive ATC control. That makes it easy
           | for the feds to make a call and say "Hey, center, get
           | everyone out of this airspace" wheras in the VFR altitudes
           | it's very difficult for them to legally clear the space since
           | a VFR plane could be flying around not talking to anyone.
        
           | ErroneousBosh wrote:
           | I only know about Las Cruces from the Organ Mountain
           | Outfitters training material in the DaVinci Resolve sample
           | footage. Sadly they closed a few months ago, which is a shame
           | because I never got my arse in gear to order a shirt from
           | them.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | Shooting down civilian American aircraft like that would seem
         | to just be for an even more strong response...
         | 
         | Seems unlikely.
        
           | guerrilla wrote:
           | They would want to avoid escalation. Escalation with cartels
           | historically does not go well for anyone involved.
        
             | alex43578 wrote:
             | Escalation by attacking US civilians or the homeland has
             | also gone poorly. It's been the casus belli many times,
             | notably ending in two Japanese cities getting nuked...
        
               | guerrilla wrote:
               | Dropping nuclear bombs on Japan was in an entirely
               | different context which has no relevance here. We're not
               | in the middle of a global war (nor is anyone even at war
               | with Mexico), nor in a nuclear arms race asserting
               | nuclear capabilities for the first time in history.
               | 
               | You're forgetting all the times the US failed too, and
               | those cases weren't even on its own border. Iraq,
               | Afghanistan, Vietnam... the list is very long. Creating
               | an existential threat on your own border is a bad move
               | for anyone. Remember how bad Columbia got? I guess not.
               | The current situation has the potential to be much more
               | dangerous.
        
               | johnmaguire wrote:
               | > You're forgetting all the times the US failed too, and
               | those cases weren't even on its own border.
               | 
               | Doesn't the US have more resources at home, not less?
               | 
               | Wouldn't a strike on US soil be a larger escalation and
               | dictate a swift and larger response?
        
               | guerrilla wrote:
               | This is real life. They don't to cause a problem they
               | can't solve.
        
               | johnmaguire wrote:
               | You are now leaning your premise as an argument. I
               | disagree that it would cause a problem.
               | 
               | I believe it's unrealistic that "the cartel" would strike
               | back against the USG, particularly on US soil.
        
               | willturman wrote:
               | The _homeland_? Yikes.
               | 
               | The last time there was an attack within the United
               | States' borders it notably ended with a self-owning
               | combination of perhaps the largest bureaucratic waste of
               | time and money in human history (DHS/TSA) and the
               | systematic erosion of enumerated rights.
        
           | m4rtink wrote:
           | If only this was a certainty - Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
           | was shot down with 298 people killed 12 years ago but still
           | no one was directly punished for it...
        
             | bluedino wrote:
             | Malaysia isn't going to attack Russia.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | I highly doubt the Russians/separatists running the Buk
               | knew the identity of the flight before shooting it down.
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | Most certainly not, but I don't see how that is relevant.
               | 
               | The problem (from a victim/Dutch perspective) is that
               | there is complete denial from the Russian side (despite
               | heaps of evidence around the people involved, origin and
               | transport of the launcher from Russian territory).
               | 
               | Even if Russian judges and prosecutors are completely
               | corrupt and biased, an actual investigation/trial is the
               | least that would be expected here, but all we got are the
               | bald faced lies that Russia is particularly fond of.
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | At least some vengeance has been already done in blood,
               | although indirectly, given how oversized has been dutch
               | support for Ukraine compared to other similarly sized
               | countries.
        
             | FergusArgyll wrote:
             | > Shooting down civilian *American* aircraft like that
             | would seem to just be for an even more strong response...
        
         | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
         | Of course, the US elected the only celebrity of the 80s and 90s
         | who hates blow.
         | 
         | On the other hand a careful analysis of the plumbing system of
         | Trump's Tower and Trump's Hotels in general would reveal
         | possibly the highest concentration of coke than any other
         | building in the world considering the intersection of wealth
         | and istrionic personalities who called those apartments home at
         | one time or the other.
         | 
         | Fate sure loves irony
         | 
         | Besides I would go to my grave claiming that racism is
         | particularly strong in the war on drugs, if coca grew plentiful
         | and naturally in the US and Europe it would not be illegal at
         | all.
         | 
         | But it's scary because uh ohh inssulfation of an extract of a
         | plant coming from the global south we are all gonna die,
         | somebody will please think of the children.
         | 
         | But hey you can gulp 60 oz of super strong energy drinks which
         | equate to about 5-6 fat lines, matter of fact you can gulp 600
         | oz and cause yourself a heart attack and nobody would bat an
         | eye or investigate the safety profile of such drinks
         | 
         | It's the same old story with alcohol too
        
           | frumplestlatz wrote:
           | > But hey you can gulp 60 oz of super strong energy drinks
           | which equate to about 5-6 fat lines
           | 
           | Are you joking?
           | 
           | Look, I'm no stranger to drugs, but coke is _not_ a "60oz
           | energy drink" and its potential for generally destroying
           | someone's life is, while not at the same level, definitely in
           | the same ballpark as crack, heroin, and meth.
        
             | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
             | 60 oz energy drink = 5-6 fat lines perhaps more
             | 
             | The most dense energy drinks have 350-400 of caffeine in a
             | can these days and on top of that there's the taurine etc.
             | 
             | 60 oz is 4 cans, do your math. 4 * 400 = 1600mg of caffeine
             | alone
             | 
             | > > potential for generally destroying someone's life is,
             | while not at the same level, definitely in the same
             | ballpark as crack, heroin, and meth.
             | 
             | That's more of the result of the enviornment and the
             | associated people who frequent such circles and not the
             | stimulant per se.
        
               | frumplestlatz wrote:
               | I don't say this lightly, as someone who has spent
               | decades around drugs, and as a result, knows more than a
               | few recovering addicts: this comes across as _wild_
               | rationalization by an addict.
               | 
               | And while 1600mg of caffeine is 4x the FDA's recommended
               | daily intake and _really_ isn 't a good idea, someone on
               | that much caffeine is neither going to feel nor behave in
               | any way similar to someone on coke.
        
               | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
               | I am sorry but you are way off.
               | 
               | Sewer stats tell us that in reality the most civilized
               | places in the world have the highest amount of coke in
               | their sewers.
               | 
               | Zurich, Brussel, Berlin, Melbourne, Billionaire's row in
               | NYC, Nantucket [0]
               | 
               | For those who don't jump the hedonic treadmill blow is
               | just edgy chic coffee with the thrill of doing something
               | 'illegal' and snorting it instead of consuming it orally.
               | 
               | Of course if you take coffee and nicotine and that gives
               | you plenty of stimulation for 6-7 hours you have no
               | business moving into the stronger stimulants, although
               | they are also availible not just in the form of blow but
               | Wellbutrin, Adderall, Dextra etc and again plenty used in
               | the most civilized places and not so much used in the
               | less civilized places
               | 
               | [0]https://www.euda.europa.eu/publications/pods/waste-
               | water-ana...
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | Sounds like a great way to reinforce the "We ready to move
         | along from Epstein" narrative.
        
         | danesparza wrote:
         | I think it's simpler. It's going to make the cartel drones
         | easier to spot.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | Do you think the cartels won't see this news? If this is all
           | it was, the cartels can just wait 10 days and start up again.
        
         | cameldrv wrote:
         | Doing a closure up to 18k feet is common because that's where
         | class A airspace starts, i.e. you need a clearance to go there,
         | you can't just fly around VFR wherever you want. The airspace
         | above 18k might not be officially closed, but controllers can
         | be instructed to just not give a clearance into whatever area
         | they deem is unsafe on a particular day.
        
       | Nathanael_M wrote:
       | The percentage of comments written primarily for the purpose
       | irrational political ranting is frustrating, considering the
       | genuinely interesting nature of the story.
        
         | ahhhhnoooo wrote:
         | "I wish all these people would stop pursuing politics
         | discussions about an authoritarian regime, instead can't we all
         | just talk about how interesting authoritarianism is?"
         | 
         | Weird take...
        
           | lingrush4 wrote:
           | Closing a small patch of airspace while military activity is
           | occurring is not authoritarianism. Get a grip you lunatic
        
             | jjtheblunt wrote:
             | i think the comment you replied to said what you said
        
             | ahhhhnoooo wrote:
             | I don't think anyone said closing this airspace was an
             | authoritarian act... double check the posts above.
        
           | themafia wrote:
           | >> for the purpose irrational political ranting
           | 
           | > pursuing politics discussions
           | 
           | Did you intentionally ignore this specific point?
        
       | nnnnico wrote:
       | More likely to be related to the E Files than the X ones
        
         | imglorp wrote:
         | E-File? Like, taxes?
        
           | ahhhhnoooo wrote:
           | Epstein files.
        
             | cheonn638 wrote:
             | > Epstein files.
             | 
             | Nobody cares
        
               | NietzscheanNull wrote:
               | Nobody cares that a large number of billionaires and
               | world leaders, individuals with the power to steer the
               | course of society as a whole, are implicated in one of
               | the largest (and darkest) scandals in history?
               | 
               | Speak for yourself.
        
               | imglorp wrote:
               | Without rule of law, we don't really have a civilization.
               | 
               | Should there be some people laws don't apply to?
        
       | t1234s wrote:
       | Downed UAP recovery?
        
         | dathinab wrote:
         | doesn't need commercial air space lock down, at most
         | private/small low altitude/drone plain lock down
        
       | chasd00 wrote:
       | Some drug cartel probably bought a SAM and they're trying to find
       | it.
        
       | JumpinJack_Cash wrote:
       | What are the odds that Claudia the President of Mexico has
       | already been extracted now?
        
       | exegete wrote:
       | Live camera of runway
       | https://app.truelook.cloud/dashboard/581/980/live
       | 
       | Linked from airport website:
       | https://elpasointernationalairport.com/live-cameras/
        
         | 1e1a wrote:
         | poor PTZ mount :(
        
       | sriram_malhar wrote:
       | "Wag The Dog" movie all over again. Sure looks like deflection
       | from the Epstein Files and economy.
        
       | sva_ wrote:
       | > Airline sources told Reuters the grounding of flights was
       | believed to be tied to the Pentagon's use of counterdrone
       | technology to address Mexican drug cartels' use of drones of the
       | U.S.-Mexico border.
       | 
       | https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-halts-all-flights-texass...
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | I personally don't think that's the whole story. They're likely
         | going to act against the cartels to take out cross-border drone
         | capabilities and are preparing for S-A retaliation as well.
        
           | morpheuskafka wrote:
           | A cartel using a SAM against a US civilian aircraft would
           | massively solidify public opinion against them just like 9/11
           | or the Iran hostage crisis. The US has been trying to extent
           | the "foreign terrorist" label and casus belli to drug
           | activities forever to justify military operations (ex. the
           | "arrest" of Maduro was for drugs, not oil/Cuba/political
           | stuff). That would be a massive self-own on the cartels part.
           | (And if it did happen, just like 9/11, it would be used as
           | justification for anything even remotely immigration or drug
           | related at every level.)
        
             | trenning wrote:
             | My understanding over the US/MX cartel relations is
             | performing an invasion and "act of war" would solidify
             | asylum status claims by Mexican residents and throw a
             | wrench into the whole immigration scheme every
             | administration plays.
             | 
             | But then again this time seems different, laws aren't
             | followed or upheld. Human rights are a fleeting staple.
        
               | pjc50 wrote:
               | Starting a war with Mexico would be a pretext for
               | interning everyone of "Mexican" ethnicity, citizen or
               | otherwise, as was done to Japanese nationals.
        
               | _heimdall wrote:
               | Its mincing words a bit, but an attack targeting drug
               | cartel assets wouldn't necessarily be viewed as a war
               | with Mexico. It could lead to that for sure, and the
               | Mexican government could declare it an act of war, but we
               | did just see the US literally invade a foreign country
               | and arrest their sitting leader without war being
               | declared on either side.
        
               | eesmith wrote:
               | The US hasn't declared war since World War II.
               | 
               | I suspect Mexicans would view it as another Pancho Villa
               | Expedition, which was also event where neither side
               | declared war.
        
               | filoeleven wrote:
               | Yet. It has certainly ratcheted up worldwide tensions, to
               | put it mildly.
        
             | guerrilla wrote:
             | > A cartel using a SAM against a US civilian aircraft would
             | massively solidify public opinion against them
             | 
             | In what world is public opinion not universally against the
             | cartels? It's hard to take you seriously after that.
        
               | djcapelis wrote:
               | > In what world is public opinion not universally against
               | the cartels? It's hard to take you seriously after that.
               | 
               | I think you're getting tripped up by some specific
               | wording and managing to miss the point the poster was
               | making. The point should be taken seriously even if
               | imprecisely articulated. While most folks are against the
               | cartels, there's a much wider range of belief on how much
               | they warrant government or military intervention and to
               | what degree we should be spending various resources on
               | them. The historical state of play was(is?) that cartels
               | are criminal organizations which are generally a policing
               | matter that has escalated to specialized policing
               | agencies and multinational networks of policing agencies.
               | The marked escalation of the military into this is a more
               | recent piece that is somewhat more controversial. One
               | doesn't have to be "in favor of the cartel" to ask
               | questions about whether our military should be bombing
               | boats or invading countries to ostensibly neutralize
               | organizations that historically have been subject to
               | policing operations.
               | 
               | To go back to the parallel... the public wasn't in favor
               | of Al Qaeda before 9/11 either, but there was a huge
               | difference in the level of response the public was in
               | favor of after. It turned from an intelligence monitoring
               | level of response into an active military invasion of
               | multiple countries.
        
               | vkou wrote:
               | The best part about bombing the boats is that the second
               | strikes on them were war crimes, while the few survivors
               | that were picked up... All ended up repatriated.
               | 
               | If they were all drug runners, why weren't they put on
               | trial? Why was so much effort made to sink all the
               | evidence? Why did an admiral resign, when told to do
               | this?
               | 
               | Everybody involved, _starting from the people pulling the
               | trigger_ , to the people giving the orders should be
               | getting a fair trial and a swift punishment for that
               | little stint of piracy and murder.
               | 
               | But these people all act like there is no such thing as
               | consequences.
        
               | ribosometronome wrote:
               | >But these people all act like there is no such thing as
               | consequences.
               | 
               | Are there?
        
               | staticassertion wrote:
               | It is, of course. What they mean, I _assume_ , is that it
               | would reach a tipping point where intervention would be
               | more broadly supported. Virtually everyone is willing to
               | say "that's bad" with regards to something happening
               | somewhere, it is _far_ less agreed upon that the US
               | should intervene in that bad thing. An effective tipping
               | point is probably something on the order of  "we feel
               | attacked".
        
               | starkparker wrote:
               | Much of the world was against Saddam Hussein, but it took
               | the wholesale invention of an Iraqi nuclear program to
               | justify and get authorization for deposing him through
               | international military action. Iraq didn't attack us,
               | though in attacking an oil partner they might as well
               | have, but the public certainly didn't feel attacked until
               | someone dreamed up the prospect of Iraq nuking Israel,
               | Europe, and/or us.
               | 
               | In that case, the justification was a prerequisite to
               | Congress authorizing a war without losing elections, and
               | then selling it to the US's allies so we wouldn't have to
               | send quite as many troops and thus lose elections. This
               | administration demonstrably doesn't care about
               | justification, authorization, alliances, or elections. So
               | why bother? If they're going to stage an arbitrary
               | Venezuela-like military operation in Mexico because of
               | "cartels", they wouldn't wait for a civilian mass-death
               | event, or for Congress, or regional allies, or public
               | opinion. They didn't wait for any of that in Venezuela.
               | 
               | TBQH this just felt like a cheap and easy way for them to
               | perpetuate the idea that we're always at war with
               | terrorists. Now they're "narcoterrorists", but they're
               | still "terrorists". And this administration might not
               | like obstacles like authorization and due process, but it
               | loves cheap, easy terrorists.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | There were plenty of people that were not against Pablo
               | Escobar as he spent a lot of money back in his home town.
               | Once the violence escalated, like when they took down a
               | civilian flight, even that support waned. So I can see
               | where GP is saying similar that by the time cartels get
               | to the point of shooting down civilian aircraft even
               | those that did support them would consider that the final
               | straw.
        
               | downrightmike wrote:
               | The world where Americans buy billions in illegal drugs
               | every year and turn a blind eye to cartels. "My dealer is
               | nice"
        
               | viraptor wrote:
               | There's still a difference between the opinions on
               | cartels and the opinion on an invasion and bombing of
               | groups hopefully-related-to-cartels during another years
               | long not-war.
        
               | nikcub wrote:
               | > In what world is public opinion not universally against
               | the cartels? It's hard to take you seriously after that.
               | 
               | They definitely care about not ratting the cage with the
               | US - they don't harm US federal agents, or take US
               | hostages, and the last incident of Americans being killed
               | in Mexico by cartel-affiliated gunmen in a case of
               | mistaken identity - it was the cartel who handed the
               | perps over and apologised[0]
               | 
               | [0] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/09/us/mexico-
               | matamoros-ameri...
        
           | TitaRusell wrote:
           | What does that even mean? Cartels can buy those DJI drones
           | from China by the container load.
           | 
           | Russia and Ukraine can't stop drones. Does the US have a
           | secret weapon?
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | > Does the US have a secret weapon?
             | 
             | It sounds like that's what was being tested requiring the
             | NOTAM. We just don't know if it did or didn't work. It
             | could have failed so badly they decided to just shut it
             | down, or it could have worked so successfully they decided
             | no more testing was needed.
        
             | guerrilla wrote:
             | > Russia and Ukraine can't stop drones. Does the US have a
             | secret weapon?
             | 
             | That does actually seem to be what they are saying now,
             | yes.
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | What cross-border drone capabilities, drug deliveries? People
           | are talking like the cartels are conducting Ukraine-style
           | drone warfare and blowing up Americans on the regular. Let's
           | stick to a factual baseline here.
        
         | datsci_est_2015 wrote:
         | This admin is focused on the message of stopping the inflow of
         | drugs to the US. There are probably some true believers, and
         | there are probably some reactionary accelerationists. There's
         | also significant evidence of amateurism, misinformation, and
         | incompetence.
         | 
         | All of that coming together, I see this action coming out of
         | meeting where                 - one party was convinced that
         | this would solve the fentanyl epidemic       - one party was
         | hoping this would escalate military action in Mexico       -
         | one party was convinced that America had lost its masculine
         | bravado and taking swift and unprecedented action like this
         | would make their wife respect them again       - one party was
         | busy making "bets" on Kalshi
        
           | RiverCrochet wrote:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut3I6gFmlls
        
           | delaminator wrote:
           | > reactionary
           | 
           | they want to overthrow the Jacobites
           | 
           | > accelerationists
           | 
           | how's that going to work ?
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | Reactionary accelerationists want a local war of some sort
             | so they can grab war powers and then roll back all the US's
             | post-WW2 social progress (and most of the New Deal too).
        
               | delaminator wrote:
               | My understanding is accelerationists or liberals to go
               | full hog so that they can go "see".
        
           | matthews3 wrote:
           | > bets
           | 
           | Investments on Kalshi!
        
           | morpheuskafka wrote:
           | > one party was busy making "bets" on Kalshi
           | 
           | This would arguably be much more severe -- and quite likely
           | already happening -- than the whole "congress trading stocks"
           | thing because most of those (besides the sports ones) tie
           | very directly to government actions in a way that the economy
           | or a large company in generally doesn't as predictably.
        
             | mikeyouse wrote:
             | It's definitely already happening and should lead to a
             | congressional inquiry if we had a functioning congress:
             | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do
        
             | nemomarx wrote:
             | Isn't the whole idea of prediction markets to let insiders
             | bet on things so that you'll get insider info leaked?
        
               | datsci_est_2015 wrote:
               | Maybe this is fine until it incentivizes easily-achieved
               | but adverse actions that would greatly harm the public.
               | 
               | For a silly example, I would imagine the streaker from
               | this year's Super Bowl is either (a) a complete idiot, or
               | (b) put a significant amount of money on a "prediction
               | market" of there being a streaker at the Super Bowl -
               | more than enough to cover his ticket, legal, and medical
               | costs.
        
             | usefulcat wrote:
             | Yes and no. AIUI there's generally a lot less liquidity
             | available in prediction markets, which limits the
             | profitability.
             | 
             | Even if you have perfect clairvoyance, you still need
             | someone to take the other side of the bet.
        
           | sowbug wrote:
           | If the US wanted to end the fentanyl and xylazine and
           | nitazene epidemic, it would legalize the controlled
           | manufacture, sale, and usage of the drugs being adulterated.
           | This won't happen, because the 50-year-old War on Drugs is a
           | load-bearing pillar of the US government.
        
             | projektfu wrote:
             | Xylazine and fentanyl are already legally distributed in
             | the US. I believe Xylazine is still unscheduled.
             | 
             | https://www.dechra-us.com/our-
             | products/us/equine/horse/presc...
        
               | sowbug wrote:
               | Those are the adulterants, not the drugs being
               | adulterated such as heroin, meth, and MDMA.
               | 
               | For the most part, no customer wants fentanyl. The
               | dealers like it because it's a cheap booster for cutting
               | the drugs that their customers actually do want to buy.
               | It just has this unfortunate side effect of making small
               | overdoses lethal.
               | 
               | That's why "ending the fentanyl crisis" is a curious
               | goal. We had a perfectly good War on Drugs going on, but
               | fentanyl is making the illicit drug industry too
               | dangerous. You'd think that if we wanted to stop drugs,
               | and we knew how to do that, we'd stop drugs. Instead
               | we're stopping fentanyl, so we can get back to the
               | regularly scheduled version of the War on Drugs that was
               | always intended to last forever.
        
             | influx wrote:
             | I live in Seattle, decriminalizing drugs didn't turn out
             | that way here.
        
               | sowbug wrote:
               | "controlled" is key. Seattle decriminalized drug use.
               | That's a tiny part of a larger solution rooted in harm
               | reduction.
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | Singapore kills drug dealers. That works _much_ better.
        
               | RiverCrochet wrote:
               | Idk, if the number of people executed increases over
               | time, maybe it doesn't.
               | 
               | https://www.afr.com/world/asia/singapore-executions-
               | touch-22...
               | 
               | This article cites Singapore saying the existing laws
               | mostly get low-level users and not kingpins because
               | kingpins operate outside of the country.
               | 
               | https://www.vice.com/en/article/singapore-drug-
               | executions/
               | 
               | Decriminalization of drug use doesn't have to mean
               | decriminalization of anything else. Thieves and murderers
               | should be prosecuted regardless of any state induced by
               | the voluntary ingestion chemicals.
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | Decriminalization without legalization is something I
               | can't support. If it's not illegal for me to have and use
               | a drug, them why should I be forced to buy it from
               | criminals? Either legalize it, or go whole hog on
               | criminalizing it. Execute the dealers and put users into
               | mandatory rehab, or let people buy it in shops. Any of
               | these half measures are intolerable, they exist to make
               | sure the situation is in a constant state of tension, to
               | nobody's benefit but the governments.
               | 
               | Ideally we would pick one or the other on a drug by drug
               | basis. Executing people for selling weed isn't something
               | I actually want, but neither do I want them simply
               | imprisoned or fined either. But with shit like fent?
               | Trying to find a single policy to fit both drugs is
               | inane.
        
               | datsci_est_2015 wrote:
               | I can't tell if this is sarcastic or not.
               | 
               | Anyway: Capital punishment is an _elegant_ solution.
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | If we're having a serious conversation about _effective_
               | drug policies, it would be remise to not discuss
               | Singapore. For some reason the conversation online is
               | always about America and European countries, as if the
               | rest of the world doesn 't exist.
        
               | datsci_est_2015 wrote:
               | I think it usually doesn't come up because Singapore is a
               | very complicated country, perhaps the most "outlier"
               | country on the planet. Most people in the US (even well-
               | educated ones) don't know nearly enough about the social,
               | cultural, and historical dynamics to speak on it
               | intelligently, let alone compare and contrast it to a
               | country like the United States.
               | 
               | Might as well talk about drug policy in South Sudan to be
               | honest.
               | 
               | Edit: I will say I do have one Singaporean expat friend
               | who finds capital punishment for drug possession vile,
               | and cites it as one of the reasons she no longer lives
               | there. Along with the crushing wealth disparity between
               | the servant class and the working class. Not that it adds
               | much to the conversation except personal flavor.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | Neighbouring countries including Thailand and Indonesia
               | also have the death penalty for drug trafficking. It is
               | almost impossible to visit parts of those countries
               | _without_ being receiving unsolicited offers of drugs...
        
               | datsci_est_2015 wrote:
               | Can you elaborate?
               | 
               | Do you mean that drug dependence has become more visible?
               | That petty crime has increased?
               | 
               | One fun thing about harm reduction policies is that, as a
               | result of fewer people dying, more people are on the
               | street. So while you don't see people in the morgue on
               | your daily commute, you do see them down the alleyway.
               | This side effect may be more unpleasant for you, but
               | that's only because you're not personally inconvenienced
               | by the corpse sitting in the freezer at the coroner.
        
             | drstewart wrote:
             | It's like if Canada wanted to end gun smuggling and school
             | shootings, it would legalize the controlled manufacture,
             | sale, and usage of the guns being banned. But they won't.
        
             | duped wrote:
             | I mean, prohibition works while legalization just makes
             | more people use whatever you legalize and increases the
             | negative externalities of its use. You see that almost
             | universally (alcohol, drugs, sex work). The exception is it
             | gets rid of the black markets and some (but not all) of the
             | violence associated with them.
             | 
             | So if the goal is to put cartels out of business then yea,
             | full legalization would help. If the goal is to stop
             | overdoses and addiction then absolutely not.
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | Alcohol is legal. We don't have gun battles between gangs
               | of smugglers, or between them and the cops. We also don't
               | have people dying or going blind from trying to drink
               | wood alcohol.
               | 
               | But we still have a depressingly large number of
               | alcoholics. The campaign against drunk driving has helped
               | reduce one set of negative side effects, but not others.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | --one party was hoping we'd stop talking about Epstein
        
           | datsci_est_2015 wrote:
           | Watching the dynamics of the vote count on this post
           | throughout the day has been interesting.
        
         | belter wrote:
         | "FAA abruptly lifts order halting El Paso airport flights for
         | 10 days" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/faa-el-paso-
         | airport.html
         | 
         | don't attribute to security concerns...what can be explained by
         | incompetence...
        
         | boringg wrote:
         | >. "The FAA and DOW acted swiftly to address a cartel drone
         | incursion.
         | 
         | The threat has been neutralized, and there is no danger to
         | commercial travel in the region.
         | 
         | The restrictions have been lifted and normal flights are
         | resuming."
         | 
         | https://x.com/SecDuffy
        
           | noelsusman wrote:
           | Doesn't really pass the sniff test. Why would you need a 10
           | day closure to deal with a drone incursion?
           | 
           | I'm guessing DoD and the FAA were squabbling over a test the
           | military wanted to run, and it didn't go up the chain fast
           | enough to get resolved before testing was scheduled to begin.
           | 
           | Edit: Here's the actual notice from the FAA[1]. Note that it
           | was issued at 0332 UTC, but the restrictions weren't
           | scheduled to go into place until 0630 UTC. Either the FAA is
           | clairvoyant, or Sean Duffy is lying.
           | 
           | [1]https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_2233
        
             | indoordin0saur wrote:
             | Was it meant to be "up to 10 days" rather than 10 days? If
             | the drones are no longer flying over the airport it makes
             | sense they'd open it back up.
        
               | noelsusman wrote:
               | The closure was for 10 days full stop. I can't think of a
               | reason to do that in response to an active threat.
        
               | schiffern wrote:
               | This is OpSec 101. Making the public closure too "tight"
               | around the operational timeline could (negligently) leak
               | operational details. You can always cancel a closure
               | later.
        
               | iAMkenough wrote:
               | Is saying "indefinitely" or "until further notice" any
               | worse than "10 days?" The specificity of the timeline was
               | what caught my eye.
        
               | vachina wrote:
               | Indefinitely infers permanence. You'll scare everyone off
               | with that language.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | Is Opsec 101 to increase the estimate by two orders of
               | magnitude? "We think this operation will take about 10
               | weeks, so we're estimating 10 years."
        
               | schiffern wrote:
               | The answer is "long enough to avoid giving away
               | operational details," not some robotically applied
               | constant multiplier like 10x.
               | 
               | We also don't know whether they expected this to take 1
               | day or more. Just because it worked out quickly doesn't
               | mean that's the "worst case" operational timeline.
        
               | lazyasciiart wrote:
               | Isn't that how estimating timelines should work?
        
               | brynnbee wrote:
               | I think the point was to get headlines and attention, as
               | someone else said it sounds like the FAA is frustrated
               | that the DoD isn't cooperating, and this seems like a
               | possible attempt to make this frustration public to
               | pressure DoD into playing more nicely.
        
             | nkrisc wrote:
             | Charitably guessing that if they don't know how long
             | they'll need to keep airspace closed then you give yourself
             | plenty of time and rescind early if necessary, as opposed
             | to continually issuing extensions which could cause
             | confusion.
        
               | hshdhdhj4444 wrote:
               | Or you say "until further notice".
               | 
               | Indeterminate end dates are not a new problem.
        
               | zthrowaway wrote:
               | FAA restrictions aren't applied in a hand wavy fashion.
        
               | afavour wrote:
               | This story would suggest otherwise.
        
               | zthrowaway wrote:
               | In what way?
        
               | nkrisc wrote:
               | Can you imagine how much more wild the speculation would
               | have been if they had said that instead?
        
             | stefan_ wrote:
             | Ding ding. Always assume weaponized incompetence in this
             | administration:
             | 
             | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/airspace-closure-followed-
             | spat-...
             | 
             | > FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford on Tuesday night decided
             | to close the airspace -- without alerting White House,
             | Pentagon or Homeland Security officials, sources said.
             | 
             | In the meantime, the politician responsible of course made
             | up a quick lie and yall ran with it, fantasizing about
             | cartel MANPADs:
             | 
             | > Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in a statement,
             | "The FAA and DOW acted swiftly to address a cartel drone
             | incursion."
        
             | HillRat wrote:
             | Recent updates say this was a unilateral call by FAA
             | because DOD was refusing to coordinate with them for
             | creating safety corridors for DOD drones and/or HEW usage.
             | Issues came to a head after DOD shot down a highly
             | threatening mylar party balloon, which FAA evidently
             | considered to be a somewhat reckless use of military
             | weaponry in a US city's airspace.
        
               | downrightmike wrote:
               | reckless use of military weaponry in a US city's
               | airspace.
        
               | cornellwright wrote:
               | Can you share a source for this? It's not in the updates
               | to the NYT article.
        
               | CGMthrowaway wrote:
               | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/airspace-closure-followed-
               | spat-...
        
               | learingsci wrote:
               | CBS is no longer a credible news source.
        
               | Hikikomori wrote:
               | Balloon looked brown?
        
               | prpl wrote:
               | Additionally, that airport would be used to coordinating
               | with the military due to proximity of both Fort Bliss and
               | White Sands.
               | 
               | It sounds like the DOD was being unusually indifferent to
               | the concerns, and after deadly prior mishaps, the FAA has
               | to be particularly careful here.
        
               | mrandish wrote:
               | > Recent updates say this was a unilateral call by FAA
               | because DOD was refusing to coordinate with them for
               | creating safety corridors for DOD drones and/or HEW
               | usage.
               | 
               | This is the first explanation I've seen that fits the odd
               | facts perfectly. This is the kind of thing that happens
               | when two regional bureaucracies collide. The FAA has
               | long-standing mechanisms for coordinating military use of
               | airspace with commercial and civilian flight operations.
               | 
               | But instead of the usual DEA border interdiction, the
               | administration is now tasking the military to drive this.
               | Military commanders on a new high-priority mission to
               | intercept drones which can attempt to cross the border
               | anytime and anywhere realized coordinating with the FAA
               | would require committing to active corridors and time
               | windows in advance, limiting their mission success and
               | resisted. The FAA realized that could lead to lots of
               | last minute airspace restrictions, flight cancellations
               | and increased risk of a mistake resulting in downing a
               | civilian flight.
               | 
               | The regional FAA administrators responsible for flight
               | safety around El Paso decided to escalate the dispute by
               | simply shutting down all civilian flights, knowing that
               | would get immediate national attention. It was an extreme
               | action but one that's within their purview if they can't
               | guarantee the safety of the airspace. I'm sure they
               | expected it would put political pressure on the military
               | to limit operations and it worked. In a sense, it also
               | helps the military commanders because being ordered to
               | accept FAA operational limitations gives them cover if it
               | reduces their mission effectiveness below what they'd
               | promised. That's probably why the military wouldn't agree
               | on their own without it being ordered from above. They're
               | the ones responsible for deploying expensive new anti-
               | drone tech in field ops for the first time. Future
               | budgets and careers are on the line.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | "Threat" might be an exaggeration.
           | 
           | https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-shot-down-party-
           | balloon...
        
             | lysace wrote:
             | _Fox News first reported that the airborne object was
             | intercepted after raising concerns of a potential drone
             | operating near the southern border. Officials later
             | concluded the object was not an unmanned aircraft but a
             | party balloon, a U.S. official told the outlet._
             | 
             | https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-military-shot-down-
             | party...
             | 
             |  _US military shot down party balloon near El Paso after
             | drone suspicion, official says_
             | 
             | Would be funny if they used some new fancy laser weapon to,
             | let's say, discombobulate this imminent threat, as
             | indicated by other reports.
        
               | golem14 wrote:
               | 99 Luftballons
        
               | lysace wrote:
               | This is too poignant not to quote, apologies in advance.
               | 
               |  _The lyrics of the original German version tell a story:
               | 99 balloons are mistaken for UFOs, causing a military
               | general to send pilots to investigate. Finding nothing
               | but balloons, the pilots put on a large show of
               | firepower. The display of force worries the nations along
               | the borders and the defence ministers on each side
               | encourage conflict to grab power for themselves._
               | 
               |  _In the end, a cataclysmic war results from the
               | otherwise harmless flight of balloons and causes
               | devastation on all sides without a victor, as indicated
               | in the denouement of the song: "99 Jahre Krieg liessen
               | keinen Platz fur Sieger," which means "99 years of war
               | left no room for victors." The anti-war song finishes
               | with the singer walking through the devastated ruins of
               | the world and finding a single balloon. The description
               | of what happens in the final line of the piece is the
               | same in German and English: "'Denk' an dich und lass' ihn
               | fliegen," or "Think of you and let it go."_
               | 
               | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99_Luftballons#Lyrics)
        
               | RupertSalt wrote:
               | I'm learning to sing in German with Nena.
               | 
               | I especially like the way she rhymes "Captain Kirk" with
               | "Feuerwerk".
               | 
               | https://genius.com/Nena-99-luftballons-lyrics
               | 
               |  _In other news, Director Gabbard and Secretaries Noem,
               | Hegseth, and Kennedy met with Secretary Leavitt for her
               | big Gender Reveal Party in El Paso..._
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | She does that 'Captain Kirk's rhyme in the English
               | version too though.
               | 
               | The real treat for German listeners is the first verse:
               | ich, mich, dich, and neun-und-neunZIG (zig is pronounced
               | like ich in the main German dialect).
               | 
               | It's a rhyming scheme that cannot be replicated in
               | English at all.
        
         | ndiddy wrote:
         | Looks like they shot the drone down with a laser:
         | 
         | > UPDATE (CNN): Source briefed by FAA tells me that military
         | activity behind the El Paso flight ban included unmanned
         | aircraft operations and laser countermeasure testing in
         | airspace directly adjacent to civilian routes into El Paso
         | International. Airspace restriction just lifted.
         | 
         | https://x.com/petemuntean/status/2021586247827828812
        
           | lysace wrote:
           | Good thing they allocated 10 days of airspace shutdown for
           | taking out a single (edit: or a few) drone(s).
           | 
           | I get the feeling this was a case of really wanting to test a
           | new weapon combined with general organizational dysfunction
           | for something unusual like this.
           | 
           | On CNN, they talked about how a shutdown like this would be
           | the first time something like this has happened since 9/11.
           | Is that really correct?
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | How do we know it was a "single" drone, or that they knew
             | for sure that it was?
        
               | ssl-3 wrote:
               | Indeed.
               | 
               | So with this lack of information: Why 10 days? Why not 3,
               | or 12, or some other number instead?
               | 
               | Or: Why must there be a number?
               | 
               | Is the officious equivalent of "We've got some shit to
               | deal with, so El Paso's airspace is closed for now"
               | insufficient?
        
         | tclancy wrote:
         | Well this could get ugly.
         | https://x.com/Acyn/status/2021613820553335090
        
         | outside1234 wrote:
         | The only confirmed thing they have shot down was a child's
         | birthday balloon
        
       | cozzyd wrote:
       | During the ICE surge in Chicago drone traffic was banned for a
       | while but this is obviously much more extreme if for a similar
       | reason. Note that at least on some roads out (I'm most familiar
       | with the road to Carlsbad from El Paso since I used to have to
       | travel there in grad school, often from ELP) there are already
       | CBP checkpoints.
        
         | baggachipz wrote:
         | El Paso is in a very Red state, ICE involvement is minimal
         | there.
        
       | fallingmeat wrote:
       | guys. it's aliens. nbd.
        
         | dummydummy1234 wrote:
         | If it was aliens trump would be telling everyone and taking
         | credit for finally telling the people the truth.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | No, he'd be rounding them up and deporting them. Have you not
           | been reading the news lately?
        
       | philipwhiuk wrote:
       | > BREAKING: A source briefed by FAA tells me the El Paso flight
       | ban was driven by military operations from Biggs Army Air Field
       | at Fort Bliss
       | https://x.com/petemuntean/status/2021573468341383284
        
         | chasd00 wrote:
         | Probably an attempt to embarrass the admin. Now watch for the
         | orangemanbad articles about a reckless military operation
         | personally planned by the president in the middle of the night
         | on X.
         | 
         | Hah im trying to be tongue-in-cheek but I have to admit that
         | doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility actually lol
        
       | durge wrote:
       | Could be a window for a bunch of deportation activity? It's not
       | very low profile if that's the case.
        
       | ubermonkey wrote:
       | If a reasonable administration took this step without any
       | justification, I'd have serious questions.
       | 
       | Under _this_ administration, I 'm very very concerned that it's
       | cover for something deeply nefarious.
        
       | philipwhiuk wrote:
       | FAA has rescinded the TFR - looks like a possible DoD goof in
       | relation to army exercises, leading to the FAA being
       | overcautious.
        
       | Noaidi wrote:
       | They lifted the restriction:
       | 
       | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/faa-el-paso-airport.html
       | 
       | TACOs.....
        
       | utf_8x wrote:
       | The closure has been lifted:
       | https://x.com/FAANews/status/2021583720465969421
        
       | wocka wrote:
       | The Federal Aviation Administration said it had lifted the
       | temporary closure of airspace over El Paso that it had imposed
       | last night. "All flights will resume as normal," the F.A.A. said
       | on social media.
        
         | huevosabio wrote:
         | What a bizarre move.
        
           | baq wrote:
           | Reminds me of the chaos monkey. Building resilience by
           | breaking and fixing stuff.
           | 
           | Not sure if applicable here, though.
        
       | thomasjudge wrote:
       | Closure rescinded
       | https://x.com/FAANews/status/2021583720465969421
        
         | Trasmatta wrote:
         | So bizarre
         | 
         | Why the 10 day announcement overnight only to totally rescind
         | it before the majority of US citizens wake up and read the
         | news?
        
           | embedding-shape wrote:
           | Hoping it slips under other news like "Woah someone else
           | should pay for this wall/bridge/investigation" so no one
           | really notices it. To be fair, seems most things are about
           | trying to direct the news somewhere else, most of the times
           | being successful at that too.
        
           | spaceywilly wrote:
           | Hanlon's Razor
           | 
           | "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained
           | by stupidity."
           | 
           | Someone probably just screwed up
        
             | input_sh wrote:
             | You don't screw up something this major, it doesn't happen
             | by accident nor by incompetence.
             | 
             | They had plans to bomb something south of that airport,
             | they had to postpone those plans now that the info is
             | public enough that whatever their target was is definitely
             | aware of those plans.
        
               | spaceywilly wrote:
               | They have confirmed it was for testing a counter-drone
               | weapon. They did not say why they set it to expire in 10
               | days, that part seems like it was probably a mistake.
        
               | input_sh wrote:
               | They gave you a plausible-enough reason and you took
               | their word for it. That's completely fine, you are well
               | within your rights to decide for yourself whether you
               | believe them or not.
               | 
               | I don't, and since neither of us can know for sure given
               | the info we've been given, it's useless for us to argue
               | about our opinions.
        
               | spaceywilly wrote:
               | I am curious, what explanation would justify a full
               | closure of the airspace over a major us city for 10 days,
               | in your opinion? That is the real screwup here. Whatever
               | justification they are giving is entirely beside the
               | point. Closing the airspace, even to emergency medevac
               | flights, is negligence.
        
               | input_sh wrote:
               | Miss me with your jUsT cUrIoUs, I have no need to make up
               | hypothetical scenarios under which this would be
               | justifiable. The burden of proof is not on me.
        
               | GJim wrote:
               | > You don't screw up something this major
               | 
               | Liz Truss begs to differ.
        
             | OldSchool wrote:
             | If there was ever a time when the old Soviet Union could
             | have won the Cold War... Fortunately for us, the window of
             | top-down incompetence came far too late.
        
             | fuzzylightbulb wrote:
             | Their stupidity is a true threat to our lives. Regardless
             | of how you want to classify it we need to remove it as a
             | threat.
        
           | fluidcruft wrote:
           | NYT reports they're claiming it was about testing anti-drone
           | tech at Fort Bliss.
           | 
           | > The brief shutdown was related to a test of new counter-
           | drone technology by the military at nearby Fort Bliss Army
           | base, according to a person briefed on the matter.
        
             | jeffwask wrote:
             | There is also a detention center at Fort Bliss from which
             | some very unsettling reports have emerged.
        
             | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
             | I'm not a huge fan of conspiracy theories, but starting a
             | 240 hours closure, ending it after 4, and claiming it was a
             | test? What sort of testing are they doing that they were
             | off by two orders of magnitude about the duration?
        
               | fluidcruft wrote:
               | Who knows. Maybe the system was malfunctioning and they
               | didn't know how long it would take to shut it down. More
               | likely the admin is just blabbing the first thing they
               | think will shut everyone up.
        
               | threetonesun wrote:
               | Someone probably briefly thought they brought Skynet
               | online via AI powered drones.
        
             | philistine wrote:
             | This is ridiculous and patently false. The US is equipped
             | with many bases with permanent air space restrictions where
             | they could perform such tests. It makes less than zero
             | sense to test anti-drone tech in a crowded civilian space.
             | I fully blame incompetence.
        
               | fluidcruft wrote:
               | Latest update from NYT
               | 
               | > According to a social media post by the Secretary of
               | Transportation, Sean Duffy, Mexican cartel drones
               | breached U.S. airspace, prompting temporary closure of
               | airspace over El Paso. The Defense Department took action
               | to disable the drones, Mr. Duffy said. Another person
               | familiar with the situation had described the cause of
               | the shutdown as a test of anti-drone technology. It is
               | unclear if the brief airport closure was directly related
               | to the presence of drones or how the technology was
               | deployed.
               | 
               | It does not seem implausible or unreasonable to me that
               | an anti-drone system would trigger airspace restrictions
               | when activated. Whether system activation is intended to
               | put out a 10 days block is probably a different issue,
               | but probably related to SOP for an event of unknown
               | duration.
        
           | LanceH wrote:
           | If you shut it down for too long and there is a lapse in
           | reopening it, planes are grounded for an extra bit of time.
           | 
           | If you shut it down for too short and there is a lapse in
           | extending the grounding, planes are getting shot out of the
           | sky (or whatever threat it was).
           | 
           | edit: I would add that maybe there are forms for shutting
           | down airspace of various specific time lengths and a
           | convenient time for something of unknown duration would be 10
           | days. 10 days might also be enough time to be sure whatever
           | resources need to be brought to bear on this are available
           | where an hour or day might not be. Shut it down basically
           | indefinitely, or at least long enough that the crew who
           | handles this extraordinary situation will be on hand to turn
           | it off.
        
         | diogenes_atx wrote:
         | WTF? The FAA announces a ban on all flights at an international
         | airport and then withdraws the ban within a few hours of the
         | announcement? What kind of insane police state would try a
         | stunt like that? Even for the Trump administration, that is
         | setting the bar at a new low.
        
           | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
           | I think the military did a thing without telling the FAA so
           | they had to guess?
        
           | lingrush4 wrote:
           | Trump needs to be impeached immediately for this. How dare he
           | close airspace and then just lift that closure once the
           | danger has passed.
        
             | diogenes_atx wrote:
             | What danger?
        
               | unethical_ban wrote:
               | What kind of government would use their statutory
               | authority to shut down an airport when there is a risk to
               | the planes?
               | 
               | Why do you think the FAA doesn't have this authority? Or,
               | why do you think the FAA shouldn't have this authority?
               | 
               | In other words: This may have been needed but poorly
               | executed; this may have been incompetent planning and
               | response. But I wouldn't call the FAA shutting down an
               | airport "police state".
        
               | diogenes_atx wrote:
               | >> What kind of government would use their statutory
               | authority to shut down an airport when there is a risk to
               | the planes?
               | 
               | It could be either an incompetent government or an
               | authoritarian government that is trying to militarize
               | certain institutions of civilian life.
               | 
               | >> Why do you think the FAA doesn't have this authority?
               | Or, why do you think the FAA shouldn't have this
               | authority?
               | 
               | The FAA does indeed have the authority. The question is
               | simply: why did the FAA choose to exercise its authority
               | in this case? If there was a real danger to the public,
               | then the FAA should be honest with the people and tell
               | them what is the danger. That is what citizens should
               | expect from a democratic government.
               | 
               | >> This may have been needed but poorly executed; this
               | may have been incompetent planning and response. But I
               | wouldn't call the FAA shutting down an airport "police
               | state".
               | 
               | The reason why I ask if this is an example of police
               | state behavior is because in this case the government
               | apparently took drastic measures without explaining to
               | the people why it was doing so.
        
           | joezydeco wrote:
           | You should have been here a month ago. The FAA halted all air
           | traffic to and from the Caribbean region with no explanation
           | (well, duh) and no announcement of a resume date. Then it was
           | lifted 24 hours later with no notice.
        
         | infecto wrote:
         | Will be interesting when/if more information is released. I am
         | not sure why folks are so surprised or think it's shocking.
         | While definitely out of the norm, my mind was immediately
         | thinking 10 days seems like an even number where you are trying
         | to find or do something, not sure how long it's going to take
         | so you just stick it. Certainly odd that it's only a few hours
         | but for all I know there is some written government procedure
         | for whoever is doing that sets it at 10 days.
        
         | belter wrote:
         | don't attribute to security concerns...what can be explained by
         | incompetence...
        
           | idontwantthis wrote:
           | Or alcoholism
        
         | state_less wrote:
         | The explanation given is that cartel air drones entered US
         | airspace.
         | 
         | I guess my question is, doesn't this happen all the time? I
         | would think drones would be an easy way to fly a Kilo over the
         | border to whatever dropspot you wanted. I wonder what the new
         | wrinkle is?
        
           | camillomiller wrote:
           | agricultural drones used for spraying can lift up to 60-80kg
           | payloads.
        
           | uyzstvqs wrote:
           | The smuggling is nothing new. Sounds like they're testing
           | laser-based countermeasures against them now.
           | 
           | [0] https://x.com/petemuntean/status/2021586247827828812
        
           | guerrilla wrote:
           | > I guess my question is, doesn't this happen all the time?
           | 
           | Yes, all the time.
        
           | MiguelHudnandez wrote:
           | I think it's worth correcting the record here because drone
           | warfare is pretty different from what actually happened. What
           | they identified and shot down was a mylar party balloon.
           | 
           | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/airspace-closure-followed-
           | spat-...
           | 
           | https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-military-shot-down-
           | party...
        
       | burnt-resistor wrote:
       | It was reported on Democracy Now! that an anonymous source said
       | the military representing Biggs Army Air Field at Fort Bliss
       | (KBIF) couldn't guarantee safety of commercial air traffic around
       | El Paso International Airport (KELP). There was no specific
       | details communicated and the message released caused unnecessary
       | panic. The most likely explanation seems to be an unresolved
       | dispute between the military and the FAA related to improving
       | airspace safety around military flight tracks near major airports
       | (class B/C/D airspace).
        
         | burnt-resistor wrote:
         | Another source from Thom Hartmann mentioned the military was
         | testing counter-drone lasers and failed to inform the FAA.
         | Seems like the FAA used unreasonable collective punishment to
         | passive-aggressively chastise the military publicly.
        
       | theonlyjesus wrote:
       | I'm from El Paso. This is bullshit if I've ever heard. There are
       | no fucking drones around here, especially not from cartels. The
       | only criminal cartel here is ICE.
        
       | bloomingeek wrote:
       | NPR just announced the El Paso airport is back online for air
       | travel.
        
       | weirdsweatsuit wrote:
       | Representative Veronica Escobar, an El Paso Democrat, said in a
       | news conference that the explanation citing Mexican drones
       | crossing the border as the reason for the closure was "not the
       | information that we in Congress have been told."
       | 
       | She said that there was no current or past threat to the area.
       | "There's no threat. There was not a threat, which is why the
       | F.A.A. lifted this restriction so quickly," she said. "The
       | information coming from the administration does not add up."
       | 
       | "There have been drone incursions from Mexico going back to as
       | long as drones existed. So this is nothing new" (NYT)
        
       | josefritzishere wrote:
       | Is Trump planning to attack Mexico?
        
         | beej71 wrote:
         | Who knows, but everyone's got that on their mind, now.
        
       | jollyllama wrote:
       | Related to the Guthrie kidnapping perhaps?
        
       | kgwxd wrote:
       | Another distraction from the Trump Files.
        
       | VizualAbstract wrote:
       | It was a party balloon. GG.
       | 
       | https://x.com/clashreport/status/2021642699603144708
        
         | tantalor wrote:
         | Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal
         | pocket and reflected the light from Venus.
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | Venus was at its peak brilliance last night. You probably
           | thought you saw something up in the sky other than Venus, but
           | I assure you, it was Venus.
        
       | 1970-01-01 wrote:
       | Whatever happened to the New Jersey drones? Did we give up on
       | them or did they give up on us?
        
       | banga wrote:
       | Today I learned of the broader disruptive capabilities of a mylar
       | birthday balloon.
        
         | superfrank wrote:
         | The elders sang songs of this day, and we were foolish not to
         | take heed
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpu5a0Bl8eY
        
       | scoofy wrote:
       | I just think it's weird that major events regarding the Epstein
       | files always seem to be below the fold because something huge,
       | that just happens to be _entirely under executive branch
       | discretion,_ ends up dominating the headlines.
        
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       (page generated 2026-02-11 23:00 UTC)