[HN Gopher] Software factories and the agentic moment
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Software factories and the agentic moment
        
       See also https://simonwillison.net/2026/Feb/7/software-factory/
        
       Author : mellosouls
       Score  : 113 points
       Date   : 2026-02-07 15:05 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (factory.strongdm.ai)
 (TXT) w3m dump (factory.strongdm.ai)
        
       | mellosouls wrote:
       | Having submitted this I would also suggest the website admin
       | revisit their testing; its very slow on my phone. Obviously fails
       | on aesthetics and accessibility as well. Submitted for the essay.
        
         | pityJuke wrote:
         | Haha yeah if I scroll on my iPhone 15 Pro it literally doesn't
         | load until I stop.
        
         | foolserrandboy wrote:
         | I get the following on safari on iOs: A problem repeatedly
         | occurred on (url)
        
           | throwaway0123_5 wrote:
           | On iOS Safari it loads and works decent for me, but w/ iOS
           | Firefox and Firefox Focus doesn't even load.
        
         | pengaru wrote:
         | Sounds like you're experiencing an "agentic moment".
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Lets hope the agents in their factory can fix it asap...
        
       | beklein wrote:
       | Relevant blog post from simonw:
       | https://simonwillison.net/2026/Feb/7/software-factory/
        
       | easeout wrote:
       | > A problem repeatedly occurred on
       | "https://factory.strongdm.ai/".
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | This is the stealth team I hinted at in a comment on here last
       | week about the "Dark Factory" pattern of AI-assisted software
       | engineering:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46739117#46801848
       | 
       | I wrote a bunch more about that this morning:
       | https://simonwillison.net/2026/Feb/7/software-factory/
       | 
       | This one is worth paying attention to to. They're the most
       | ambitious team I've see exploring the limits of what you can do
       | with this stuff. It's eye-opening.
        
         | enderforth wrote:
         | This right here is where I feel most concerned
         | 
         | > If you haven't spent at least $1,000 on tokens today per
         | human engineer, your software factory has room for improvement
         | 
         | Seems to me like if this is true I'm screwed no matter if I
         | want to "embrace" the "AI revolution" or not. No way my
         | manager's going to approve me to blow $1000 a day on tokens,
         | they budgeted $40,000 for our team to explore AI for the entire
         | year.
         | 
         | Let alone from a personal perspective I'm screwed because I
         | don't have $1000 a month in the budget to blow on tokens
         | because of pesky things that also demand financial resources
         | like a mortgage and food.
         | 
         | At this point it seems like damned if I do, damned if I don't.
         | Feels bad man.
        
           | navanchauhan wrote:
           | I think corporate incentives vs personal incentives are
           | slightly different here. As a company trying to experiment in
           | this moment, you should be betting on token cost not being
           | the bottleneck. If the tooling proves valuable, $1k/day per
           | engineer is actually pretty cheap.
           | 
           | At home on my personal setup, I haven't even had to move past
           | the cheapest codex/claude code subscription because it
           | fulfills my needs -\\_(tsu)_/-. You can also get a lot of
           | mileage out of the higher tiers of these subscriptions before
           | you need to start paying the APIs directly.
        
             | rune-dev wrote:
             | How is 1k/day cheap? Even for a large company?
             | 
             | Takes like this are just baffling to me.
             | 
             | For one engineer that is ~260k a year.
        
               | libraryofbabel wrote:
               | I do not really agree with the below, but the logic is
               | probably:
               | 
               | 1) Engineering investment at companies generally pays off
               | in multiples of what is spent on engineering time. Say
               | you pay 10 engineers $200k / year each and the features
               | those 10 engineers build grow yearly revenue by $10M.
               | That's a 4x ROI and clearly a good deal. (Of course, this
               | only applies up to some ceiling; not every company has
               | enough TAM to grow as big as Amazon).
               | 
               | 2) Giving engineers near-unlimited access to token usage
               | means they can create even more features, in a way that
               | _still_ produces positive ROI per token. This is the part
               | I disagree with most. It's complicated. You cannot just
               | ship infinite slop and make money. It glosses over
               | massive complexity in how software is delivered and used.
               | 
               | 3) Therefore (so the argument goes) you should not cap
               | tokens and should encourage engineers to use as many as
               | possible.
               | 
               | Like I said, I don't agree with this argument. But the
               | key thing here is step 1. Engineering time is an
               | investment to grow revenue. If you _really could_ get
               | positive ROI per token in revenue growth, you should buy
               | infinite tokens until you hit the ceiling of your
               | business.
               | 
               | Of course, the real world does not work like this.
        
               | rune-dev wrote:
               | Right, I understand of course that AI usage and token
               | costs are an investment (probably even a very good one!).
               | 
               | But my point is moreso that saying 1k a day is cheap is
               | ridiculous. Even for a company that expects an ROI on
               | that investment. There's risks involved and as you said,
               | diminishing returns on software output.
               | 
               | I find AI bros view of the economics of AI usage strange.
               | It's reasonable to me to say you think its a good
               | investment, but to say it's cheap is a whole different
               | thing.
        
               | libraryofbabel wrote:
               | Oh sure. We agree on all you said. I wouldn't call it
               | cheap either. :)
               | 
               | The best you can say is "high cost but positive ROI
               | investment." Although I don't think that's true beyond a
               | certain point either, certainly not outside special cases
               | like small startups with a lot of funding trying to build
               | a product quickly. You can't just spew tokens about and
               | expect revenue to increase.
               | 
               | That said, I do reserve some special scorn for companies
               | that penny-pinch on AI tooling. Any CTO or CEO who thinks
               | a $200/month Claude Max subscription (or equivalent) for
               | each developer is too much money to spent really needs to
               | rethink their whole model of software ROI and costs.
               | You're often paying your devs >$100k yr and you won't pay
               | $2k / yr to make them more productive? I understand there
               | are budget and planning cycle constraints blah blah,
               | but... really?!
        
               | dasil003 wrote:
               | In big companies there is always waste, it's just not
               | possible to be super efficient when you have tens of
               | thousands of people. It's one thing in a steady state,
               | low-competition business where you can refine and
               | optimize processes so everyone knows exactly what their
               | job is, but that is generally not the environment that
               | software companies operate in. They need to be able
               | innovate and stay competitive, never moreso than today.
               | 
               | The thing with AI is that it ranges from net-negative to
               | easily brute forcing tedious things that we never have
               | considered wasting human time on. We can't figure out
               | where the leverage is unless all the subject matter
               | experts in their various organizational niches really
               | check their assumptions and get creative about
               | experimenting and just trying different things that may
               | never have crossed their mind before. Obviously over time
               | best practices will emerge and get socialized, but with
               | the rate that AI has been improving lately, it makes a
               | lot of sense to just give employees carte blanche to
               | explore. Soon enough there will be more scrutiny and
               | optimization, but that doesn't really make sense without
               | a better understanding of what is possible.
        
               | zingar wrote:
               | I assumed that they are saying that you spend $1k per day
               | and that makes the developer as productive as some
               | multiple of the number of people you could hire for that
               | $1k.
        
           | buster wrote:
           | May be the point is, that the one engineer replaces 10
           | engineers by using the dark factory which by definition
           | doesn't need humans.
        
             | FeteCommuniste wrote:
             | The great hope of CEOs everywhere.
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | Yeah, that's one part of this that didn't sit right with me.
           | 
           | I don't think you need to spend anything like that amount of
           | money to get the majority of the value they're describing
           | here.
           | 
           | Edit: added a new section to my blog post about this:
           | https://simonwillison.net/2026/Feb/7/software-
           | factory/#wait-...
        
             | noosphr wrote:
             | This is the part that feels right to me because agents are
             | idiots.
             | 
             | I built a tool that writes (non shit) reports from
             | unstructured data to be used internally by analysts at a
             | trading firm.
             | 
             | It cost between $500 to $5000 per day per seat to run.
             | 
             | It could have cost a lot more but latency matters in market
             | reports in a way it doesn't for software. I imagine they
             | are burning $1000 per day per seat because they can't
             | afford more.
        
               | threecheese wrote:
               | They are idiots, but getting better. Ex: wrote an agent
               | skill to do some read only stuff on a container
               | filesystem. Stupid I know, it's like a maintainer script
               | that can make recommendations, whatever.
               | 
               | Another skill called skill-improver, which tries to
               | reduce skill token usage by finding deterministic
               | patterns in another skill that can be scripted, and
               | writes and packages the script.
               | 
               | Putting them together, the container-maintenance thingy
               | improves itself every iteration, validated with automatic
               | testing. It works perfectly about 3/4 of the time,
               | another half of the time it kinda works, and fails
               | spectacularly the rest.
               | 
               | It's only going to get better, and this fit within my Max
               | plan usage while coding other stuff.
        
               | noosphr wrote:
               | LLMs are idiots and they will never get better because
               | they have quadratic attention and a limited context
               | window.
               | 
               | If the tokens that need to attend to each other are on
               | opposite ends of the code base the only way to do that is
               | by reading in the whole code base and hoping for the
               | best.
               | 
               | If you're very lucky you can chunk the code base in such
               | a way that the chunks pairwise fit in your context window
               | and you can extract the relevant tokens hierarchically.
               | 
               | If you're not. Well get reading monkey.
               | 
               | Agents, md files, etc. are bandaids to hide this fact.
               | They work great until they don't.
        
             | jessmartin wrote:
             | I wonder if this is just a byproduct of factories being
             | very early and very inefficient. Yegge and Huntley both
             | acknowledge that their experiments in autonomous factories
             | are extremely expensive and wasteful!
             | 
             | I would expect cost to come down over time, using
             | approaches pioneered in the field of manufacturing.
        
           | reilly3000 wrote:
           | My friend works at Shopify and they are 100% all in on AI
           | coding. They let devs spend as much as they want on whatever
           | tool they want. If someone ends up spending a lot of money,
           | they ask them what is going well and please share with
           | others. If you're not spending they have a different talk
           | with you.
           | 
           | As for me, we get Cursor seats at work, and at home I have a
           | GPU, a cheap Chinese coding plan, and a dream.
        
             | r0b05 wrote:
             | > I have a GPU, a cheap Chinese coding plan, and a dream
             | 
             | Right in the feels
        
             | dude250711 wrote:
             | _> If someone ends up spending a lot of money, they ask
             | them what is going well and please share with others. If
             | you're not spending they have a different talk with you._
             | 
             | Make a "systemctl start tokenspender.service" and share it
             | with the team?
        
             | sergiotapia wrote:
             | I get $200 a month, I do wish I could get $1000 and stop
             | worrying about trying the latest AI tools.
        
             | zingar wrote:
             | What results are you getting at home?
        
           | mgkimsal wrote:
           | I read that as combined, up to this point in time. You have
           | 20 engineers? If you haven't spent at least $20k up to this
           | point, you've not explored or experienced enough of the ins
           | and outs to know how best to optimize the use of these tools.
           | 
           | I didn't read that as you need to be spending $1k/day per
           | engineer. That is an insane number.
           | 
           | EDIT: re-reading... it's ambiguous to me. But perhaps they
           | mean _per day, every day_. This will only hasten the
           | elimination of human developers, which I presume is the
           | point.
        
           | christoph wrote:
           | Same. Feels like it goes against the entire "hacker" ethos
           | that brought me here in the first place. That sentence made
           | me actually feel physically sick on initial read as well.
           | Everyday now feels like a day where I have exponentially less
           | & less interest in tech. If all of this AI that's burning the
           | planet is so incredible, where are the real world tangible
           | improvements? I look around right now and everything in tech,
           | software, internet, etc. has never looked so similar to a
           | dumpster fire of trash.
        
             | zingar wrote:
             | The biggest rewards for human developers came from building
             | addictive eyeball-getters for adverts so I don't see how we
             | can expect a very high bar for the results of their
             | replacement AI factories. Real-world and tangible just seem
             | completely out of the picture.
        
             | Garlef wrote:
             | Maybe think about it like this: A dev is ~1k per day. If
             | the tool gives you 3x then 2x in cost is fine.
        
           | DrewADesign wrote:
           | > No way my manager's going to approve me to blow $1000 a day
           | on tokens, they budgeted $40,000 for our team to explore AI
           | for the entire year.
           | 
           | To be fair, I'll bet many embracing concerning advice like
           | that have never worked for the same company for a full year.
        
         | riazrizvi wrote:
         | Until there's something verifiable it's just talk. Talk _was_
         | cheap. Now talk has become an order of magnitude cheaper since
         | ChatGPT.
        
         | benreesman wrote:
         | It is tempting to be stealthy when you start seeing
         | discontinuous capabilities go from totally random to somewhat
         | predictable. But most of the key stuff is on GitHub.
         | 
         | The moats here are around mechanism design and values (to the
         | extent they differ): the frontier labs are doomed in this
         | world, the commons locked up behind paywalls gets hyper
         | mirrored, value accrues in very different places, and it's not
         | a nice orderly exponent from a sci-fi novel. It's nothing like
         | what the talking heads at Davos say, Anthropic aren't in the
         | top five groups I know in terms of being good at it, it'll get
         | written off as fringe until one day it happens in like a day.
         | So why be secretive?
         | 
         | You get on the ladder by throwing out Python and JSON and
         | learning lean4, you tie property tests to lean theorems via FFI
         | when you have to, you start building out rfl to pretty printers
         | of proven AST properties.
         | 
         | And yeah, the droids run out ahead in little firecracker VMs
         | reading from an effect/coeffect attestation graph and writing
         | back to it. The result is saved, useful results are indexed.
         | Human review is about big picture stuff, human coding is about
         | airtight correctness (and fixing it when it breaks despite your
         | "proof" that had a bug in the axioms).
         | 
         | Programming jobs are impacted but not as much as people think:
         | droids do what David Graeber called bullshit jobs for the most
         | part and then they're savants (not polymath geniuses) at a few
         | things: reverse engineering and infosec they'll just run you
         | over, they're fucking going in CIC.
         | 
         | This is about formal methods just as much as AI.
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Can you make an ethical declaration here, stating whether or
         | not you are being compensated by them?
         | 
         | Their page looks to me like a lot of invented jargon and pure
         | narrative. Every technique is just a renamed existing concept.
         | Digital Twin Universe is mocks, Gene Transfusion is reading
         | reference code, Semport is transpilation. The site has zero
         | benchmarks, zero defect rates, zero cost comparisons, zero
         | production outcomes. The only metric offered is "spend more
         | money".
         | 
         | Anyone working honestly in this space knows 90% of agent
         | projects are failing.
         | 
         | The main page of HN now has three to four posts daily with no
         | substance, just Agentic AI marketing dressed as engineering
         | insight.
         | 
         | With Google, Microsoft, and others spending $600 billion over
         | the next year on AI, and panicking to get a return on that
         | Capex....and with them now paying influencers over $600K [1] to
         | manufacture AI enthusiasm to justify this infrastructure spend,
         | I won't engage with any AI thought leadership that lacks a
         | clear disclosure of financial interests and reproducible claims
         | backed by actual data.
         | 
         | Show me a real production feature built entirely by agents with
         | full traces, defect rates, and honest failure accounting. Or
         | stop inventing vocabulary and posting vibes charts.
         | 
         | [1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46925821
        
           | AstroBen wrote:
           | Simon does have a disclosure on his site about not being
           | compensated for anything:
           | https://simonwillison.net/about/#disclosures
        
             | belter wrote:
             | Thank you. That link discloses there was at least one
             | instance where OpenAI paid for his time.
             | 
             | I will reformulate my question to ask instead if the page
             | is still 100% correct or needs an update?
        
               | simonw wrote:
               | It's current. I last modified it in October: https://gith
               | ub.com/simonw/simonwillisonblog/commits/main/tem...
        
               | belter wrote:
               | Thank you. Your disclosure page is better than all other
               | AI commentators as most disclose nothing at all. You do
               | disclose an OpenAI payment, Microsoft travel, and the
               | existence of preview relationships.
               | 
               | However I would argue there are significant gaps:
               | 
               | - You do not name your consulting clients. You admit to
               | do ad-hoc consulting and training for unnamed companies
               | while writing daily about AI products. Those client names
               | are material information.
               | 
               | - You have non payments that have monetary value. Free
               | API credits, and weeks of early preview access, flights,
               | hotels, dinners, and event invitations are all
               | compensation. Do you keep those credits?
               | 
               | - The "I have not accepted payments from LLM vendors"
               | could mean receiving things worth thousands of dollars.
               | Please note I am not saying you did.
               | 
               | - You have a structural conflict. Your favorable coverage
               | will mean preview access, then exclusive content then
               | traffic, then sponsors, then consulting clients.
               | 
               | - You appeared in an OpenAI promotional video for GPT-5
               | and were paid for it. This is influencer marketing by any
               | definition.
               | 
               | - Your quotes are used as third-party validation in press
               | coverage of AI product launches. This is a PR function
               | with commercial value to these companies.
               | 
               | The FTC revised Endorsement Guides explicitly apply to
               | bloggers, not just social media influencers. The FTC
               | defines material connection to include not only cash
               | payments but also free products, early access to a
               | product, event invitations, and appearing in promotional
               | media all of which would seem to apply here.
               | 
               | They also say in the FTC own "Disclosures 101" guide that
               | states [2]: "...Disclosures are likely to be missed if
               | they appear only on an ABOUT ME or profile page, at the
               | end of posts or videos, or anywhere that requires a
               | person to click MORE."
               | 
               | https://www.ftc.gov/business-
               | guidance/resources/disclosures-...
               | 
               | [2] - https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/plain-
               | language/10...
               | 
               | I would argue an ecosystem of free access, preview
               | privileges, promotional video appearances, API credits,
               | and undisclosed consulting does constitute a financial
               | relationship that should be more transparently disclosed
               | than "I have not accepted payments from LLM vendors."
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | Simon Willison has publicly posted many times that he
               | finds it frustrating that people call him a shill for the
               | AI industry
               | 
               | I don't think it's unreasonable to say that your
               | enumerated list would be considered beyond simply being
               | enthusiastic about a new technology
        
               | simonw wrote:
               | The problem with naming my consulting clients that some
               | of them won't want to be named. I don't want to turn down
               | paid work because I have a popular blog.
               | 
               | I have a very strong policy that I won't write about
               | someone because they paid me to do so, or asked me to as
               | part of a consulting engagement. I guess you'll just have
               | to trust me that I'll hold to that. I like to hope I've
               | earned the trust of most of my readers.
               | 
               | I do have a structural conflict, which is one of the
               | reasons my disclosures page exists. I don't value things
               | like early access enough to avoid writing critically
               | about companies, but the risk of subtle bias is always
               | there. I can live with that, and I trust my readers can
               | live with it too.
               | 
               | I've found myself in a somewhat strange position where my
               | hobby - blogging about stuff I find interesting - has
               | somehow grown to the point that I'm effectively single-
               | handedly running an entire news agency covering the
               | world's most valuable industry. As a side-project.
               | 
               | I could commit to this full-time and adopt full
               | professional journalist ethics - no accepted credits, no
               | free travel etc. I'd still have to solve the revenue side
               | of things, _and_ if I wrote full time I 'd give up being
               | a practitioner which would damage my ability to credibly
               | cover the space. Part of the reason people trust me is
               | that I'm an active developer and user of these tools.
               | 
               | On top of that, some people default to believing that the
               | _only_ reason anyone would write anything positive about
               | AI is if they were being paid to do so. Convincing those
               | people otherwise is a losing battle, and I 'm trying to
               | learn not to engage.
               | 
               | So I'm OK with my disclosures and principles as they
               | stand. They may not get a 100% pure score from everyone,
               | but they're enough to satisfy my own personal ethics.
               | 
               | I have just added disclosures links to the footer to make
               | them easier to find - thanks for the prod on that: https:
               | //github.com/simonw/simonwillisonblog/commit/95291fd26...
        
               | AstroBen wrote:
               | The problem with these "shill for an AI company" thoughts
               | is that it really doesn't matter how good their shilling
               | or salesmanship is. They actually do need to provide
               | value for it to be successful
               | 
               | These aren't tools they're asking $25,000 upfront for,
               | that they can trick us that it for sure definitely works
               | and get the huge lump sum then run
               | 
               | Nah.. at best they get a few dollars upfront for us to
               | try it out. Then what? If it doesn't deliver on their
               | promise, it flops
        
               | belter wrote:
               | >> at best they get a few dollars upfront for us to try
               | it out.
               | 
               | The hyperscalers are spending 600 billion a year, and
               | literally betting their companies future, on what will
               | happen over the next 24 months...but the bloggers are all
               | doing it for philanthropy and to play with cool
               | tech....Got it...
        
               | AstroBen wrote:
               | _It doesn 't matter_
               | 
               | Let's say super popular blogger x is paid a million
               | dollars to shill for AI and they convince you it's
               | revolutionary. What then? Well of course you try it! You
               | pay OpenAI $20 for a month
               | 
               | What happens after that, the actual experience of using
               | the product, is the only important thing. If it sucks and
               | provides no value to anyone, OpenAI fails. Sleezy
               | marketing and salesmen can only get you in the door. They
               | can't make a shit product amazing
               | 
               | It doesn't matter how many people shill for it
        
           | coder23853 wrote:
           | > Every technique is just a renamed existing concept. Digital
           | Twin Universe is mocks, Gene Transfusion is reading reference
           | code, Semport is transpilation. The site has zero benchmarks,
           | zero defect rates, zero cost comparisons, zero production
           | outcomes. The only metric offered is "spend more money".
           | 
           | Repeating for emphasis, because this is the VERY obvious
           | question anyone with a shred of curiosity would be asking not
           | just about this submission but about what is CONSTANTLY on
           | the frontpage these days.
           | 
           | There could be a very simple 5 question questionnaire that
           | could eliminate 90+% of AI coding requests before they start:
           | 
           | - Is this a small wrapper around just querying an existing
           | LLM
           | 
           | - Does a brief summary of this searched with "site:github"
           | already return dozens or hundreds of results?
           | 
           | - Is this a classic scam (pump&dump, etc) redone using "AI"
           | 
           | - Is this needless churn between already high level
           | abstractions of technology (dashboard of dashboards, yaml to
           | json, python to java script, automation of automation
           | framework)
        
       | navanchauhan wrote:
       | (I'm one of the people on this team). I joined fresh out of
       | college, and it's been a wild ride.
       | 
       | I'm happy to answer any questions!
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | I know you're not supposed to look at the code, but do you have
         | things in place to measure and improve code quality anyway?
         | 
         | Not just code review agents, but things like "find duplicated
         | code and refactor it"?
        
           | navanchauhan wrote:
           | A few overnight "attractor" workflows serve distinct
           | purposes:
           | 
           | * DRYing/Refactoring if needed
           | 
           | * Documentation compaction
           | 
           | * Security reviews
        
         | steveklabnik wrote:
         | More of a comment than a question:
         | 
         | > Those of us building software factories must practice a
         | deliberate naivete
         | 
         | This is a great way to put it, I've been saying "I wonder which
         | sacred cows are going to need slaughtered" but for those that
         | didn't grow up on a farm, maybe that metaphor isn't the best. I
         | might steal yours.
         | 
         | This stuff is very interesting and I'm really interested to see
         | how it goes for you, I'll eagerly read whatever you end up
         | putting out about this. Good luck!
         | 
         | EDIT: oh also the re-implemented SaaS apps really
         | recontextualizes some other stuff I've been doing too...
        
           | axus wrote:
           | > "I wonder which sacred cows are going to need slaughtered"
           | 
           | Or a vegan or Hindu. Which ethics are you willing to throw
           | away to run the software factory?
           | 
           | I eat hamburgers while aware of the moral issues.
        
           | navanchauhan wrote:
           | This was an experiment that Justin ran: one person fresh out
           | of college, and another with a long, traditional career.
           | 
           | Even though all three of us have very different working
           | styles, we all seem to be very happy with the arrangement.
           | 
           | You definitely need to keep an open mind, though, and be
           | ready to unlearn some things. I guess I haven't spent enough
           | time in the industry yet to develop habits that might hinder
           | adopting these tools.
           | 
           | Jay single-handedly developed the digital twin universe. Only
           | one person commits to a codebase :-)
        
         | jessmartin wrote:
         | I've been building using a similar approach[1] and my intuition
         | is that humans will be needed at some points in the factory
         | line for specific tasks that require expertise/taste/quality.
         | Have you found that the be the case? Where do you find that
         | humans should be involved in the process of maximal leverage?
         | 
         | To name one probable area of involvement: how do you specify
         | _what_ needs to be built?
         | 
         | [1] https://sociotechnica.org/notebook/software-factory/
        
           | navanchauhan wrote:
           | _You 're absolutely right_ ;)
           | 
           | Your intuition/thinking definitely lines up with how we're
           | thinking about this problem. If you have a good definition of
           | done and a good validation harness, these agents can hill
           | climb their way to a solution.
           | 
           | But you still need human taste/judgment to decide what you
           | want to build (unless your solution is to just brute force
           | the entire problem space).
           | 
           | For maximal leverage, you should follow the mantra "Why am I
           | doing this?" If you use this enough times, you'll come across
           | the bottleneck that can only be solved by you for now. As a
           | human, your job is to set the higher-level requirements for
           | what you're trying to build. Coming up with these
           | requirements and then using agents to shape them up is
           | acceptable, but human judgment is definitely where we have to
           | answer what needs to be built. At the same time, I never want
           | to be doing something the models are better at. Until we
           | crack the proactiveness part, we'll be required to figure out
           | what to do next.
           | 
           | Also, it looks like you and Danvers are working in the same
           | space, and we love trading notes with other teams working in
           | this area. We'd love to connect. You can either find my
           | personal email or shoot me an email at my work email:
           | navan.chauhan [at] strongdm.com
        
         | solomatov wrote:
         | You aren't supposed to read code, but do you from time to time,
         | just to evaluate what is going on?
        
           | navanchauhan wrote:
           | No. But, I do ask questions (in $CODING_AGENT to always have
           | a good mental model of everything that I'm working on though.
        
       | rhrthg wrote:
       | Can you disclose the number of Substack subscriptions and whether
       | there is an unusual amount of bulk subscriptions from certain
       | entities?
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | I recently passed 40,000 but my Substack is free so it's not a
         | revenue source for me. I haven't really looked at who they are
         | - at some point it would be interesting to export the CSV of
         | the subscribers and count by domains, I guess.
         | 
         | My content revenue comes from ads on my blog via
         | https://www.ethicalads.io/ - rarely more than $1,000 in a given
         | month - and sponsors on GitHub:
         | https://github.com/sponsors/simonw - which is adding up to
         | quite good money now. Those people get my sponsors-only monthly
         | newsletter which looks like this:
         | https://gist.github.com/simonw/13e595a236218afce002e9aeafd75...
         | - it's effectively the edited highlights from my blog because a
         | lot of people are too busy to read everything I put out there!
         | 
         | I try to keep my disclosures updated on the about page of my
         | blog: https://simonwillison.net/about/#disclosures
        
           | andersmurphy wrote:
           | Is this article sponsored by StrongDM?
        
             | simonw wrote:
             | No.
        
       | japhyr wrote:
       | > That idea of treating scenarios as holdout sets--used to
       | evaluate the software but not stored where the coding agents can
       | see them--is fascinating. It imitates aggressive testing by an
       | external QA team--an expensive but highly effective way of
       | ensuring quality in traditional software.
       | 
       | This is one of the clearest takes I've seen that starts to get me
       | to the point of possibly being able to trust code that I haven't
       | reviewed.
       | 
       | The whole idea of letting an AI write tests was problematic
       | because they're so focused on "success" that `assert True`
       | becomes appealing. But orchestrating teams of agents that are
       | incentivized to build, and teams of agents that are incentivized
       | to find bugs and problematic tests, is fascinating.
       | 
       | I'm quite curious to see where this goes, and more motivated (and
       | curious) than ever to start setting up my own agents.
       | 
       | Question for people who are already doing this: How much are you
       | spending on tokens?
       | 
       | That line about spending $1,000 on tokens is pretty off-putting.
       | For commercial teams it's an easy calculation. It's also
       | depressing to think about what this means for open source. I sure
       | can't afford to spend $1,000 supporting teams of agents to
       | continue my open source work.
        
         | verdverm wrote:
         | Do you know what those hold out twats should look like before
         | thoroughly iterating on the problem?
         | 
         | I think people are burning money on tokens letting these things
         | fumble about until they arrive at some working set of files.
         | 
         | I'm staying in the loop more than this, building up rather than
         | tuning out
        
         | Lwerewolf wrote:
         | Re: $1k/day on tokens - you can also build a local rig, nothing
         | "fancy". There was a recent thread here re: the utility of
         | local models, even on not-so-fancy hardware. Agents were a big
         | part of it - you just set a task and it's done at some point,
         | while you sleep or you're off to somewhere or working on
         | something else entirely or reading a book or whatever. Turn off
         | notifications to avoid context switches.
         | 
         | Check it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46838946
        
         | dist-epoch wrote:
         | I wouldn't be surprised if agents start "bribing" each other.
        
           | japhyr wrote:
           | If they're able to communicate with each other. But I'm
           | pretty sure we could keep that from happening.
           | 
           | I don't take your comment as dismissive, but I think a lot of
           | people _are_ dismissing interesting and possibly effective
           | approaches with short reactions like this.
           | 
           | I'm interested in the approach described in this article
           | because it's specifying where the humans are in all this,
           | it's not about removing humans entirely. I can see a class of
           | problems where any non-determinism is completely
           | unacceptable. But I can also see a large number of problems
           | where a small amount of non-determinism is quite acceptable.
        
             | dist-epoch wrote:
             | They can communicate through the source code. Also
             | Schelling points - they both figure out a strategy to "help
             | each other thrive"
             | 
             | Something like "approve this PR and I will generate some
             | easy bugs for you to find later"
        
       | codingdave wrote:
       | > If you haven't spent at least $1,000 on tokens today per human
       | engineer, your software factory has room for improvement
       | 
       | At that point, outside of FAANG and their salaries, you are
       | spending more on AI than you are on your humans. And they
       | consider that level of spend to be a metric in and of itself. I'm
       | kinda shocked the rest of the article just glossed over that one.
       | It seems to be a breakdown of the entire vision of AI-driven
       | coding. I mean, sure, the vendors would love it if everyone's
       | salary budget just got shifted over to their revenue, but such a
       | world is absolutely not my goal.
        
         | kaffekaka wrote:
         | If the output is (dis)proportionally larger, the cost trade off
         | might be the right thing to do.
         | 
         | And it might be the tokens will become cheaper.
        
           | obirunda wrote:
           | Tokens will become significantly more expensive in the short
           | term actually. This is not stemming from some sort of anti-AI
           | sentiment. You have two ramps that are going to drive this.
           | 1. Increase demand, linear growth at least but likely this is
           | already exponential. 2. Scaling laws demand, well, more
           | scale.
           | 
           | Future better models will both demand higher compute use AND
           | higher energy. We cannot underestimate the slowness of energy
           | production growth and also the supplies required for simply
           | hooking things up. Some labs are commissioning their own
           | power plants on site, but this is not a true accelerator for
           | power grid growth limits. You're using the same supply chain
           | to build your own power plant.
           | 
           | If inference cost is not dramatically reduced and models
           | don't start meaningfully helping with innovations that make
           | energy production faster and inference/training demand less
           | power, the only way to control demand is to raise prices.
           | Current inference costs, do not pay for training costs. They
           | can probably continue to do that on funding alone, but once
           | the demand curve hits the power production limits, only one
           | thing can slow demand and that's raising the cost of use.
        
         | dewey wrote:
         | It would depend on the speed of execution, if you can do the
         | same amount of work in 5 days with spending 5k, vs spending a
         | month and 5k on a human the math makes more sense.
        
           | verdverm wrote:
           | You won't know which path has larger long term costs, for a
           | example, what if the AI version costs 10x to run?
        
         | dixie_land wrote:
         | This is an interesting point but if I may offer a different
         | perspective:
         | 
         | Assuming 20 working days a month: that's 20k x 12 == 240k a
         | year. So about a fresh grad's TC at FANG.
         | 
         | Now I've worked with many junior to mid-junior level SDEs and
         | sadly 80% does not do a better job than Claude. (I've also
         | worked with staff level SDEs who writes worse code than AI, but
         | they offset that usually with domain knowledge and TL
         | responsibilities)
         | 
         | I do see AI transform software engineering into even more of a
         | pyramid with very few human on top.
        
           | bobbiechen wrote:
           | Important too, a fully loaded salary costs the company far
           | more than the actual salary that the employee receives. That
           | would tip this balancing point towards 120k salaries, which
           | is well into the realm of non-FAANG
        
           | mejutoco wrote:
           | Original claim was:
           | 
           | > At that point, outside of FAANG and their salaries, you are
           | spending more on AI than you are on your humans
           | 
           | You say
           | 
           | > Assuming 20 working days a month: that's 20k x 12 == 240k a
           | year. So about a fresh grad's TC at FANG.
           | 
           | So you both are in agreement on that part at least.
        
         | philipp-gayret wrote:
         | $1,000 is maybe 5$ per workday. I measure my own usage and am
         | on the way to $6,000 for a full year. I'm still at the stage
         | where I like to look at the code I produce, but I do believe
         | we'll head to a state of software development where one day we
         | won't need to.
        
           | gipp wrote:
           | Maybe read that quote again. The figure is 1000 _per day_
        
             | verdverm wrote:
             | The quote is if you haven't spent $1000 per dev _today_
             | 
             | which sounds more like if you haven't reached this point
             | you don't have enough experience yet, keep going
             | 
             | At least that's how I read the quote
        
               | delecti wrote:
               | Scroll further down (specifically to the section titled
               | "Wait, $1,000/day per engineer?"). The quote in the
               | quoted article (so from the original source in
               | factory.strongdm.ai) could _potentially_ be read either
               | way, but Simon Willison (the direct link) absolutely is
               | interpreting it as $1000 /dev/day. I also think
               | $1000/dev/day is the intended meaning in the strongdm
               | article.
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | Yeah I'm going to update my piece to talk more about that.
         | 
         | Edit: here's that section:
         | https://simonwillison.net/2026/Feb/7/software-factory/#wait-...
        
       | CubsFan1060 wrote:
       | I can't tell if this is genius or terrifying given what their
       | software does. Probably a bit of both.
       | 
       | I wonder what the security teams at companies that use StrongDM
       | will think about this.
        
         | verdverm wrote:
         | I doubt this would be allowed in regulated industries like
         | healthcare
        
       | g947o wrote:
       | Serious question: what's keeping a competitor from doing the same
       | thing and doing it better than you?
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | That's a genuine problem now. If you launch a new feature and
         | your competition can ship their own copy a few hours later the
         | competitive dynamics get really challenging!
         | 
         | My hunch is that the thing that's going to matter is network
         | effects and other forms of soft lockin. Features alone won't
         | cut it - you need to build something where value accumulates to
         | your user over time in a way that discourages them from
         | leaving.
        
           | CubsFan1060 wrote:
           | The interesting part about that is both of those things
           | require some sort of time to start.
           | 
           | If I launch a new product, and 4 hours later competitors pop
           | up, then there's not enough time for network effects or
           | lockin.
           | 
           | I'm guessing what is really going to be needed is something
           | that can't be just copied. Non-public data, business
           | contracts, something outside of software.
        
           | verdverm wrote:
           | Marketing and brand are still the most important, though I
           | personally hope for a world where business is more indie and
           | less winner take all
           | 
           | You can see the first waves of this trend in HN new.
        
             | andersmurphy wrote:
             | Wouldn't the incumbents with their fantastic distribution
             | channels, brand, lockin, marketing, capital and own models
             | just wipe the floor with everyone as talent no longer
             | matters?
        
       | wrs wrote:
       | On the cxdb "product" page one reason they give against rolling
       | your own is that it would be "months of work". Slipped into an
       | archaic off-brand mindset there, no?
        
         | verdverm wrote:
         | We make this great, just don't use it to build the same thing
         | we offer
         | 
         | Heat death of the SaaSiverse
        
       | d0liver wrote:
       | > As I understood it the trick was effectively to dump the full
       | public API documentation of one of those services into their
       | agent harness and have it build an imitation of that API, as a
       | self-contained Go binary. They could then have it build a
       | simplified UI over the top to help complete the simulation.
       | 
       | This is still the same problem -- just pushed back a layer. Since
       | the generated API is wrong, the QA outcomes will be wrong, too.
       | Also, QAing things is an effective way to ensure that they work
       | _after_ they've been reviewed by an engineer. A QA tester is not
       | going to test for a vulnerability like a SQL injection unless
       | they're guided by engineering judgement which comes from an
       | understanding of the properties of the code under test.
       | 
       | The output is also essentially the definition of a derivative
       | work, so it's probably not legally defensible (not that that's
       | ever been a concern with LLMs).
        
       | threecheese wrote:
       | So much of this resonated with me, and I realize I've arrived at
       | a few of the techniques myself (and with my team) over the last
       | several months.
       | 
       | THIS FRIGHTENS ME. Many of us sweng are either going be FIRE
       | millionaires, or living under a bridge, in two years.
       | 
       | I've spent this week performing SemPort; found a ts app that does
       | a needed thing, and was able to use a long chain of prompts to
       | get it completely reimplemented in our stack, using Gene Transfer
       | to ensure it uses some existing libraries and concrete techniques
       | present in our existing apps.
       | 
       | Now not only do I have an idiomatic Python port, which I can drop
       | right into our stack, but I have an extremely detailed
       | features/requirements statement for the origin typescript app
       | along with the prompts for generating it. I can use this to
       | continuously track this other product as it improves. I also have
       | the "instructions infrastructure" to direct an agent to align new
       | code to our stack. Two reusable skills, a new product, and it
       | took a week.
        
         | beepbooptheory wrote:
         | Sorry if rude but truly feel like I am missing the joke. This
         | is just LinkedIn copypasta or something right?
        
           | threecheese wrote:
           | My post? Shiiiii if that's how it comes across I may delete
           | it. I haven't logged into LI since our last corp reorg, it
           | was a cesspool even then. Self promotion just ain't my bag
           | 
           | I was just trying to share the same patterns from OPs
           | documentation that I found valuable within the context of
           | agentic development; seeing them take this so far is was
           | scares me, because they are right that I could wire an agent
           | to do this autonomously and probably get the same outcomes,
           | scaled.
        
         | cbeach wrote:
         | Please let's not call ourselves "swengs"
         | 
         | Is it really that hard to write "developer" or "engineer"?
        
       | Herring wrote:
       | $100 says they're still doing leetcode interviews.
       | 
       | If everyone can do this, there won't be any advantage (or profit)
       | to be had from it very soon. Why not buy your own hardware and
       | run local models, I wonder.
        
         | navanchauhan wrote:
         | I would spend those $100 on either API tokens or donate to a
         | charity of your choice. My interview to join this team was
         | whether I could build something of my choosing in under an hour
         | with any coding agent of my choice.
         | 
         | No local model out there is as good as the SOTA right now.
        
           | Herring wrote:
           | _> My interview to join this team was whether I could build
           | something of my choosing in under an hour with any coding
           | agent of my choice._
           | 
           | You should have led with that. I think that's actually more
           | impressive; anyone can spend tokens.
        
       | CuriouslyC wrote:
       | Until we solve the validation problem, none of this stuff is
       | going to be more than flexes. We can automate code review, set up
       | analytic guardrails, etc, so that looking at the code isn't
       | important, and people have been doing that for >6 months now. You
       | still have to have a human who knows the system to validate that
       | the thing that was built matches the intent of the spec.
       | 
       | There are higher and lower leverage ways to do that, for instance
       | reviewing tests and QA'ing software via use vs reading original
       | code, but you can't get away from doing it entirely.
        
         | cronin101 wrote:
         | This obviously depends on what you are trying to achieve but
         | it's worth mentioning that there are languages designed for
         | formal proofs and static analysis against a spec, and I have
         | suspicions we are currently underutilizing them (because
         | historically they weren't very fun to write, but if everything
         | is just tokens then who cares).
         | 
         | And "define the spec concretely" (and how to exploit emerging
         | behaviors) becomes the new definition of what programming is.
        
           | svilen_dobrev wrote:
           | > "define the spec concretely"
           | 
           | (and unambiguously. and completely. For various depths of
           | those)
           | 
           | This always has been _the crux of programming_. Just has been
           | drowned in closer-to-the-machine more-deterministic
           | verbosities, be it assembly, C, prolog, js, python, html,
           | what-have-you
           | 
           | There have been a never ending attempts to reduce that to
           | more away-from-machine representation. Low-code/no-code
           | (anyone remember Last-one for Apple ][ ?), interpreting-
           | and/or-generating-off DSLs of various level of abstraction,
           | further to esperanto-like artificial reduced-ambiguity
           | languages... some even english-like..
           | 
           | For some domains, above worked/works - and the
           | (business)-analysts became new programmers. Some companies
           | have such internal languages. For most others, not really.
           | And not that long ago, the SW-Engineer job was called
           | Analyst-programmer.
           | 
           | But still, the frontier is there to cross..
        
             | kmac_ wrote:
             | Code is always the final spec. Maybe the "no
             | engineers/coders/programmers" dream will come true, but in
             | the end, the soft, wish-like, very undetailed business
             | "spec" has to be transformed into hard implementation that
             | covers all (well, most of) corners. Maybe when context size
             | reaches 1G tokens and memory won't be wiped every new
             | session? Maybe after two or three breakthrough papers? For
             | now, the frontier isn't reached.
        
         | simianwords wrote:
         | did you read the article?
         | 
         | >StrongDM's answer was inspired by Scenario testing (Cem Kaner,
         | 2003).
        
           | CuriouslyC wrote:
           | Tests are only rigorous if the correct intent is encoded in
           | them. Perfectly working software can be wrong if the intent
           | was inferred incorrectly. I leverage BDD heavily, and there a
           | lot of little details it's possible to misinterpret going
           | from spec -> code. If the spec was sufficient to fully
           | specify the program, it would be the program, so there's lots
           | of room for error in the transformation.
        
             | simianwords wrote:
             | Then I disagree with you
             | 
             | > You still have to have a human who knows the system to
             | validate that the thing that was built matches the intent
             | of the spec.
             | 
             | You don't need a human who knows the system to validate it
             | if you trust the LLM to do the scenario testing correctly.
             | And from my experience, it is very trustable in these
             | aspects.
             | 
             | Can you detail a scenario by which an LLM can get the
             | scenario wrong?
        
               | CuriouslyC wrote:
               | The whole point is that you can't 100% trust the LLM to
               | infer your intent with accuracy from lossy natural
               | language. Having it write tests doesn't change this, it's
               | only asserting that its view of what you want is
               | internally consistent, it is still just as likely to be
               | an incorrect interpretation of your intent.
        
               | senordevnyc wrote:
               | _The whole point is that you can 't 100% trust the LLM to
               | infer your intent with accuracy from lossy natural
               | language._
               | 
               | Then it seems like the only workable solution from your
               | perspective is a solo member team working on a product
               | they came up with. Because as soon as there's more than
               | one person on something, they have to use "lossy natural
               | language" to communicate it between themselves.
        
               | CuriouslyC wrote:
               | Coworkers are absolutely an ongoing point of friction
               | everywhere :)
               | 
               | On the plus side, IMO nonverbal cues make it way easier
               | to tell when a human doesn't understand things than an
               | agent.
        
               | enraged_camel wrote:
               | >> The whole point is that you can't 100% trust the LLM
               | to infer your intent with accuracy from lossy natural
               | language.
               | 
               | You can't 100% trust a human either.
               | 
               | But, as with self-driving, the LLM simply needs to be
               | better. It does not need to be perfect.
        
               | simianwords wrote:
               | Good analogy
        
               | politelemon wrote:
               | I do not trust the LLM to do it correctly. We do not have
               | the same experience with them, and should not assume
               | everyone does. To me, your question makes no sense to
               | ask.
        
               | simianwords wrote:
               | We should be able to measure this. I think verifying
               | things is something an llm can do better than a human.
               | 
               | You and I disagree on this specific point.
               | 
               | Edit: I find your comment a bit distasteful. If you can
               | provide a scenario where it can get it incorrect, that's
               | a good discussion point. I don't see many places where
               | LLMs can't verify as good as humans. If I developed a new
               | business logic like - users from country X should not be
               | able to use this feature - LLM can very easily verify
               | this by generating its own sample api call and checking
               | the response.
        
             | PKop wrote:
             | > If the spec was sufficient to fully specify the program,
             | it would be the program
             | 
             | Very salient concept in regards to LLM's and the idea that
             | one can encode a program one wishes to see output in
             | natural English language input. There's lots of room for
             | error in all of these LLM transformations for same reason.
        
         | varispeed wrote:
         | AI also quickly goes off the rails, even the Opus 2.6 I am
         | testing today. The proposed code is very much rubbish, but it
         | passes the tests. It wouldn't pass skilled human review. Worst
         | thing is that if you let it, it will just grow tech debt on top
         | of tech debt.
        
           | feastingonslop wrote:
           | The code itself does not matter. If the tests pass, and the
           | tests are good, then who cares? AI will be maintaining the
           | code.
        
             | flyinglizard wrote:
             | That's assuming no human would ever go near the code, and
             | that over time it's not getting out of hand (inference
             | time, token limits are all a thing), and that anti-patterns
             | don't get to where the code is a logical mess which
             | produces bugs through a webbing of specific behaviors
             | instead of proper architecture.
             | 
             | However I guess that at least some of that can be mitigated
             | by distilling out a system description and then running
             | agents again to refactor the entire thing.
        
               | feastingonslop wrote:
               | And that is the right assumption. Why would any humans
               | need (or even want) to look at code any more? That's like
               | saying you want to go manually inspect the oil refinery
               | every time you fill your car up with gas. Absurd.
        
               | sarchertech wrote:
               | > However I guess that at least some of that can be
               | mitigated by distilling out a system description and then
               | running agents again to refactor the entire thing.
               | 
               | The problem with this is that the code is the spec. There
               | are 1000 times more decisions made in the implementation
               | details than are ever going to be recorded in a test
               | suite or a spec.
               | 
               | The only way for that to work differently is if the spec
               | is as complex as the code and at that level what's the
               | point.
               | 
               | With what you're describing, every time you regenerate
               | the whole thing you're going to get different behavior,
               | which is just madness.
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | Next iterations of models will have to deal with that code,
             | and it would be harder and harder to fix bugs and introduce
             | features without triggering or introducing more defects.
             | 
             | Biological evolution overcomes this by running thousands
             | and millions of variations in parallel, and letting the
             | more defective ones to crash and die. In software
             | ecosystems, we can't afford such a luxury.
        
             | varispeed wrote:
             | An example: it had a complete interface to a hash map. The
             | task was to delete elements. Instead of using the hash map
             | API, it iterated through the entire underlying array to
             | remove a single entry. The expected solution was O(1), but
             | it implemented O(n). These decisions compound. The software
             | may technically work, but the user experience suffers.
        
               | feastingonslop wrote:
               | If you have particular performance requirements like
               | that, then include them. Test for them. You still don't
               | have to actually look at the code. Either the software
               | meets expectations or it doesn't, and keep having AI work
               | at it until you're satisfied.
        
         | kaicianflone wrote:
         | I agree with this almost completely. The hard part isn't
         | generation anymore, it's validation of intent vs outcome.
         | Especially once decisions are high-stakes or irreversible,
         | think pkg updates or large scale tx
         | 
         | What I'm working on (open source) is less about replacing human
         | validation and more about scaling it: using multiple
         | independent agents with explicit incentives and disagreement
         | surfaced, instead of trusting a single model or a single
         | reviewer.
         | 
         | Humans are still the final authority, but consensus,
         | adversarial review, and traceable decision paths let you
         | reserve human attention for the edge cases that actually
         | matter, rather than reading code or outputs linearly.
         | 
         | Until we treat validation as a first-class system problem (not
         | a vibe check on one model's answer), most of this will stay in
         | "cool demo" territory.
        
           | sonofhans wrote:
           | "Anymore?" After 40 years in software I'll say that
           | validation of intent vs. outcome has always been a hard
           | problem. There are and have been no shortcuts other than
           | determined human effort.
        
             | kaicianflone wrote:
             | I don't disagree. After decades, it's still hard which is
             | exactly why I think treating validation as a system problem
             | matters.
             | 
             | We've spent years systematizing generation, testing, and
             | deployment. Validation largely hasn't changed, even as the
             | surface area has exploded. My interest is in making that
             | human effort composable and inspectable, not pretending it
             | can be eliminated.
        
       | hnthrow0287345 wrote:
       | Yep, you definitely want to be in the business of selling shovels
       | for the gold rush.
        
       | eclipsetheworld wrote:
       | I have been working on my own "Digital Twins Universe" because
       | 3rd-party SaaS tools often block the tight feedback loops
       | required for long-horizon agentic coding. Unlike Stripe, which
       | offers a full-featured environment usable in both development and
       | staging, most B2B SaaS companies lack adequate fidelity (e.g.,
       | missing webhooks in local dev) or even a basic staging
       | environment.
       | 
       | Taking the time to point a coding agent towards the public (or
       | even private) API of a B2B SaaS app to generate a working
       | (partial) clone is effectively "unblocking" the agent. I wouldn't
       | be surprised if a "DTU-hub" eventually gains traction for
       | publishing and sharing these digital twins.
       | 
       | I would love to hear more about your learnings from building
       | these digital twins. How do you handle API drift? Also, how do
       | you handle statefulness within the twins? Do you test for
       | divergence? For example, do you compare responses from the live
       | third-party service against the Digital Twin to check for parity?
        
       | rileymichael wrote:
       | > In rule form: - Code must not be written by humans - Code must
       | not be reviewed by humans
       | 
       | as a previous strongDM customer, i will never recommend their
       | offering again. for a core security product, this is not the flex
       | they think it is
       | 
       | also mimicking other products behavior and staying in sync is a
       | fools task. you certainly won't be able to do it just off the API
       | documentation. you may get close, but never perfect and you're
       | going to experience constant breakage
        
         | andersmurphy wrote:
         | Right but how many unsuspecting customers like you do they need
         | to have before they can exit?
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | They actually "exited" a few weeks ago - acquired by Delinea:
           | https://delinea.com/news/delinea-strongdm-to-unite-
           | redefine-...
           | 
           | From what I've heard the acquisition was unrelated to their
           | AI lab work, it was about the core business.
        
             | andersmurphy wrote:
             | Thanks for the reply (always enjoy your sqlite content).
             | It's definitely going to be interesting to see how all
             | these AI labs playout when they are how the core business
             | is built.
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | Important to note that this is the approach taken by their AI
         | research lab over the past six months, it's not (yet)
         | reflective of how they build the core product.
        
           | gabrieledarrigo wrote:
           | What have they actually built?
        
       | simianwords wrote:
       | I like the idea but I'm not so sure this problem can be solved
       | generally.
       | 
       | As an example: imagine someone writing a data pipeline for
       | training a machine learning model. Anyone who's done this knows
       | that such a task involves lots data wrangling work like cleaning
       | data, changing columns and some ad hoc stuff.
       | 
       | The only way to verify that things work is if the eventual model
       | that is trained performs well.
       | 
       | In this case, scenario testing doesn't scale up because the
       | feedback loop is extremely large - you have to wait until the
       | model is trained and tested on hold out data.
       | 
       | Scenario testing clearly can not work on the smaller parts of the
       | work like data wrangling.
        
       | noosphr wrote:
       | I was looking for some code, or a product they made, or anything
       | really on their site.
       | 
       | The only github I could find is:
       | https://github.com/strongdm/attractor                   Building
       | Attractor              Supply the following prompt to a modern
       | coding agent         (Claude Code, Codex, OpenCode, Amp, Cursor,
       | etc):                codeagent> Implement Attractor as described
       | by         https://factory.strongdm.ai/
       | 
       | Canadian girlfriend coding is now a business model.
       | 
       | Edit:
       | 
       | I did find some code. Commit history has been squashed
       | unfortunately: https://github.com/strongdm/cxdb
       | 
       | There's a bunch more under the same org but it's years old.
        
         | yomismoaqui wrote:
         | I don't know if that is crazy or a glimpse of the future (could
         | be both).
         | 
         | PS: TIL about "Canadian girlfriend", thanks!
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | There's actual code in this repo:
         | https://github.com/strongdm/cxdb
        
           | lunar_mycroft wrote:
           | I've looked at their code for a few minutes in a few files,
           | and while I don't know what they're trying to do well enough
           | to say for sure anything is definitely a bug, I've already
           | spotted several things that seem likely to be, and several
           | others that I'd class as anti-patterns in rust. Don't get me
           | wrong, as an experiment this is really cool, but I do not
           | think they've succeeded in getting the "dark factory" concept
           | to work where every other prominent attempt has fallen short.
        
             | simonw wrote:
             | Out of interest, what anti-patterns did you see?
             | 
             | (I'm continuing to try to learn Rust!)
        
               | lunar_mycroft wrote:
               | To pick a few (from the server crate, because that's
               | where I looked):
               | 
               | - The StoreError type is stringly typed and generally
               | badly thought out. Depending on what they actually want
               | to do, they should either add more variants to StoreError
               | for the difference failure cases, replaces the strings
               | with a sub-types (probably enums) to do the same, or
               | write a type erased error similar to (or wrapping) the
               | ones provided by anyhow, eyre, etc, but with a status
               | code attached. They definitely shouldn't be checking for
               | substrings in their own error type for control flow.
               | 
               | - _So_ many calls to String::clone [0]. Several of the
               | ones I saw were actually only necessary because the
               | function took a parameter by reference even though it
               | could have (and I would argue should have) taken it by
               | value (If I had to guess, I 'd say the agent first tried
               | to do it without the clone, got an error, and implemented
               | a local fix without considering the broader context).
               | 
               | - A lot of errors are just ignored with
               | Result::unwrap_or_default or the like. Sometimes that's
               | the right choice, but from what I can see they're
               | allowing legitimate errors to pass silently. They also
               | treat the values they get in the error case differently,
               | rather than e.g. storing a Result or Option.
               | 
               | - Their HTTP handler has an 800 line long closure which
               | they immediately call, apparently as a substitute for the
               | the still unstable try_blocks feature. I would strongly
               | recommend moving that into it's own full function
               | instead.
               | 
               | - Several ifs which should have been match.
               | 
               | - Lots of calls to Result::unwrap and Option::unwrap. IMO
               | in production code you should always at minimum use
               | expect instead, forcing you to explain what went
               | wrong/why the Err/None case is impossible.
               | 
               | It wouldn't catch all/most of these (and from what I've
               | seen might even induce some if agents continue to pursue
               | the most local fix rather than removing the underlying
               | cause), but I would strongly recommend turning on most of
               | clippy's lints if you want to learn rust.
               | 
               | [0] https://rust-
               | unofficial.github.io/patterns/anti_patterns/bor...
        
               | drekipus wrote:
               | [delayed]
        
         | ebhn wrote:
         | That's hilarious
        
         | jessmartin wrote:
         | They have a Products page where they list a database and an
         | identity system in addition to attractors:
         | https://factory.strongdm.ai/products
         | 
         | For those of us working on building factories, this is pretty
         | obvious because once you immediately need shared context across
         | agents / sessions and an improved ID + permissions system to
         | keep track of who is doing what.
        
         | ares623 wrote:
         | I was about to say the same thing! Yet another blog post with
         | heaps of navel gazing and zero to actually show for it.
         | 
         | The worst part is they got simonw to (perhaps unwittingly or
         | social engineering) vouch and stealth market for them.
         | 
         | And $1000/day/engineer in token costs at current market rates?
         | It's a bold strategy, Cotton.
         | 
         | But we all know what they're going for here. They want to make
         | themselves look amazing to convince the boards of the Great
         | Houses to acquire them. Because why else would investors invest
         | in them and not in the Great Houses directly.
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | The "social engineering" is that I was invited to a demo back
           | in October and thought it was really interesting.
           | 
           | (Two people who's opinions I respect said "yeah you really
           | should accept that invitation" otherwise I probably wouldn't
           | have gone.)
           | 
           | I've been looking forward to being able to write more details
           | about what they're doing ever since.
        
             | ares623 wrote:
             | I will look forward to that blog post then, hopefully it
             | has more details than this one.
             | 
             | EDIT nvm just saw your other comment.
        
             | ucirello wrote:
             | Justin never invites me in when he brings the cool folks
             | in! Dang it...
        
             | oidar wrote:
             | Is this the black box folks you mentioned?
        
           | navanchauhan wrote:
           | I think this comment is slightly unfair :(
           | 
           | We've been working on this since July, and we shared the
           | techniques and principles that have been working for us
           | because we thought others might find them useful. We've also
           | open-sourced the nlspec so people can build their own
           | versions of the software factory.
           | 
           | We're not selling a product or service here. This also isn't
           | about positioning for an acquisition: we've already been in a
           | definitive agreement to be acquired since last month.
           | 
           | It's completely fair to have opinions and to not like what
           | we're putting out, but your comment reads as snarky without
           | adding anything to the conversation.
        
             | Game_Ender wrote:
             | Can you link to nlspec? It is not easy to find with a
             | search.
        
               | simonw wrote:
               | That's in this repo:
               | https://github.com/strongdm/attractor
        
               | navanchauhan wrote:
               | https://github.com/strongdm/attractor
        
       | layer8 wrote:
       | So, what does DM stand for?
        
         | navanchauhan wrote:
         | Domain Model (https://strongdm.com)
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | Thanks. I'm unable to find the term "domain model" on the
           | website.
        
             | navanchauhan wrote:
             | It's part of the "lore" that gets passed down when you join
             | the company.
             | 
             | Funnily enough, the marketing department even ran a
             | campaign asking, "What does DM stand for?!", and the answer
             | was "Digital Metropolis," because we did a design refresh.
             | 
             | I just linked the website because that's what the actual
             | company does, and we are just the "AI Lab"
        
         | dude250711 wrote:
         | Doomy marketing?
        
       | srcreigh wrote:
       | This is just sleight of hand.
       | 
       | In this model the spec/scenarios are the code. These are curated
       | and managed by humans just like code.
       | 
       | They say "non interactive". But of course their work is
       | interactive. AI agents take a few minutes-hours whereas you can
       | see code change result in seconds. That doesn't mean AI agents
       | aren't interactive.
       | 
       | I'm very AI-positive, and what they're doing is different, but
       | they are basically just lying. It's a new word for a new instance
       | of the same old type of thing. It's not a new type of thing.
       | 
       | The common anti-AI trope is "AI just looked at <human output> to
       | do this." The common AI trope from the StrongDM is "look, the
       | agent is working without human input." Both of these takes are
       | fundamentally flawed.
       | 
       | AI will always depend on humans to produce relevant results for
       | humans. It's not a flaw of AI, it's more of a flaw of humans.
       | Consequently, "AI needs human input to produce results we want to
       | see" should not detract from the intelligence of AI.
       | 
       | Why is this true? At a certain point you just have Kolmogorov
       | complexity, AI having fixed memory and fixed prompt size,
       | pigeonhole principle, not every output is possible to be produced
       | even with any input given specific model weights.
       | 
       | Recursive self-improvement doesn't get around this problem. Where
       | does it get the data for next iteration? From interactions with
       | humans.
       | 
       | With the infinite complexity of mathematics, for instance solving
       | Busy Beaver numbers, this is a proof that AI can in fact not
       | solve every problem. Humans _seem_ to be limited in this regard
       | as well, but there is no proof that humans are fundamentally
       | limited this way like AI. This lack of proof of the limitations
       | of humans is the precise advantage in intelligence that humans
       | will always have over AI.
        
       | AlexeyBrin wrote:
       | Code must not be written by humans         Code must not be
       | reviewed by humans
       | 
       | I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I would avoid this company
       | like the plague.
        
       | neya wrote:
       | The solution to this problem is not throwing everything at AI. To
       | get good results from any AI model, you need an architect (human)
       | instructing it from the top. And the logic behind this is that AI
       | has been trained on millions of opinions on getting a particular
       | task done. If you ask a human, they almost always have one
       | opinionated approach for a given task. The human's opinion is a
       | derivative of their lived experience, sometimes foreseeing all
       | the way to the end result an AI cannot foresee. Eg. I want a
       | database column a certain type because I'm thinking about adding
       | an E-Commerce feature to my CMS later. An AI might not have this
       | insight.
       | 
       | Of course, you can't always tell the model what to do, especially
       | if it is a repeated task. It turns out, we already solved this
       | decades ago using _algorithms_. Repeatable, reproducible,
       | reliable. The challenge (and the reward) lies in separating the
       | problem statement into algorithmic and agentic. Once you achieve
       | this, the $1000 token usage is not needed at all.
       | 
       | I have a working prototype of the above and I'm currently
       | productizing it (shameless plug):
       | 
       | https://designflo.ai
       | 
       | However - I need to emphasize, the language you use to apply the
       | pattern above matters. I use Elixir specifically for this, and it
       | works really, really well.
       | 
       | It works based off starting with the architect. You. It feeds off
       | specs and uses algorithms as much as possible to automate code
       | generation (eg. Scaffolding) and only uses AI sparsely when
       | needed.
       | 
       | Of course, the downside of this approach is that you can't just
       | simply say "build me a social network". You can however say
       | something like "Build me a social network where users can share
       | photos, repost, like and comment on them".
       | 
       | Once you nail the models used in the MVC pattern, their
       | relationships, the software design is pretty much 50% battle won.
       | This is really good for v1 prototypes where you really want best
       | practices enforced, OSWAP compliant code, security-first software
       | output which is where a pure agentic/AI approach would mess up.
        
       | politelemon wrote:
       | > we transitioned from boolean definitions of success ("the test
       | suite is green") to a probabilistic and empirical one. We use the
       | term satisfaction to quantify this validation: of all the
       | observed trajectories through all the scenarios, what fraction of
       | them likely satisfy the user?
       | 
       | Oh, to have the luxury of redefining success and handwaving away
       | hard learned lessons in the software industry.
        
       | stego-tech wrote:
       | IT perspective here. Simon hits the nail on the head as to what
       | I'm genuinely looking forward to:
       | 
       | > How do you clone the important parts of Okta, Jira, Slack and
       | more? With coding agents!
       | 
       | This is what's going to gut-punch most SaaS companies repeatedly
       | over the next decade, even if this whole build-out ultimately
       | collapses in on itself (which I expect it to). The era of bespoke
       | consultants for SaaS product suites to handle configuration and
       | integrations, while not gone, are certainly under threat by LLMs
       | that can ingest user requirements and produce functional code to
       | do a similar thing at a fraction of the price.
       | 
       | What a lot of folks miss is that in enterprise-land, we only need
       | the integration _once_. Once we have an integration, it basically
       | exists with minimal if any changes _until one side of the
       | integration dies_. Code fails a security audit? We can either
       | spool up the agents again briefly to fix it, or just isolate it
       | in a security domain like the glut of WinXP and Win7 boxen
       | rotting out there on assembly lines and factory floors.
       | 
       |  _This is why SaaS stocks have been hammered this week._ It 's
       | not that investors genuinely expect huge players to go bankrupt
       | due to AI so much as they know the era of infinite growth is
       | _over_. It 's also why big AI companies are rushing IPOs even as
       | data center builds stall: we're officially in a world where a
       | locally-run model - not even an Agent, just a model in LM Studio
       | on the Corporate Laptop - can produce sufficient code for a
       | growing number of product integrations without any engineer
       | having to look through yet another set of API documentation. As
       | agentic orchestration trickles down to homelabs and private
       | servers on smaller, leaner, and more efficient hardware, that
       | capability is only going to increase, threatening profits of
       | subscription models and large AI companies. _Again_ , why bother
       | ponying up for a recurring subscription _after the work is
       | completed_?
       | 
       | For full-fledged software, there's genuine benefit to be had with
       | human intervention and creativity; for the multitude of
       | integrations and pipelines that were previously farmed out to
       | pricey consultants, LLMs will more than suffice for all but the
       | biggest or most complex situations.
        
         | theshrike79 wrote:
         | "API Glue" is what I've called it since forever
         | 
         | Stuff comes in from an API goes out to a different API.
         | 
         | With a semi-decent agent I can build what took me a week or two
         | in hours just because it can iterate the solution faster than
         | any human can type.
         | 
         | A new field in the API could've been a two day ordeal of
         | patching it through umpteen layers of enterprise frameworks.
         | Now I can just tell Claude to add it, it'll do it up to the
         | database in minutes - and update the tests at the same time.
        
           | stego-tech wrote:
           | And because these are all APIs, we can brute-force it with
           | read-only operations with minimal review times. If the read
           | works, the write almost always will, and then it's just a
           | matter of reading and documenting the integration before
           | testing it in dev or staging.
           | 
           |  _So much_ of enterprise IT nowadays is spent hammering or
           | needling vendors for basic API documentation so we can write
           | a one-off that hooks DB1 into ServiceNow that 's also pulling
           | from NewRelic just to do ITAM. Consultants would salivate
           | over such a basic integration because it'd be their yearly
           | salary over a three month project.
           | 
           | Now we can do this ourselves with an LLM in a single sprint.
           | 
           | That's a Pandora's Box moment right there.
        
       | amarant wrote:
       | "If you haven't spent at least $1,000 on tokens today per human
       | engineer, your software factory has room for improvement"
       | 
       | Apart from being a absolutely ridiculous metric, this is a bad
       | approach, at least with current generation models. In my
       | experience, the less you inspect what the model does, the more
       | spaghetti-like the code will be. And the flying spaghetti monster
       | eats tokens faster than you can blink! Or put more clearly:
       | implementing a feature will cost you a lot more tokens in a messy
       | code base than it does in a clean one. It's not (yet) enough to
       | just tell the agent to refactor and make it clean, you have to
       | give it hints on how to organise the code.
       | 
       | I'd go do far as to say that if you're burning a thousand dollars
       | a day per engineer, you're getting very little bang for your
       | tokens.
       | 
       | And your engineers probably look like this:
       | https://share.google/H5BFJ6guF4UhvXMQ7
        
         | kakugawa wrote:
         | It's short-term vs long-term optimization. Short-term
         | optimization is making the system effective right now. Long-
         | term optimization is exploring ways to improve the system as a
         | whole.
        
         | Garlef wrote:
         | Maybe Management will finally get behind refactoring
        
           | amarant wrote:
           | Damn, I was already on board with using coding agents.
           | Consider me welded to the deck at this point!
        
       | galoisscobi wrote:
       | What has strongdm actually built? Are their users finding value
       | from their supposed productivity gains?
       | 
       | If their focus is to only show their productivity/ai system but
       | not having built anything meaningful with it, it feels like one
       | of those scammy life coaches/productivity gurus that talk about
       | how they got rich by selling their courses.
        
       | dist-epoch wrote:
       | Gas Town, but make it Enterprise.
        
         | mcapodici wrote:
         | Nailed it
        
       | mccoyb wrote:
       | Effectively everyone is building the same tools with zero
       | quantitative benchmarks or evidence behind the why / ideas ...
       | this entire space is a nightmare to navigate because of this. Who
       | cares without proper science, seriously? I look through this
       | website and it looks like a preview for a course I'm supposed to
       | buy ... when someone builds something with these sorts of claims
       | attached, I assume that there is going to be some "real graphs"
       | ("these are the number of times this model deviated from the spec
       | before we added error correction ...")
       | 
       | What we have instead are many people creating hierarchies of
       | concepts, a vast "naming" of their own experiences, without
       | rigorous quantitative evaluation.
       | 
       | I may be alone in this, but it drives me nuts.
       | 
       | Okay, so with that in mind, it amounts to heresay "these guys are
       | doing something cool" -- why not shut up or put up with either
       | (a) an evaluation of the ideas in a rigorous, quantitative way or
       | (b) apply the ideas to produce an "hard" artifact (analogous,
       | e.g., to the Anthropic C compiler, the Cursor browser) with a
       | reproducible pathway to generation.
       | 
       | The answer seems to be that (b) is impossible (as long as we're
       | on the teet of the frontier labs, which disallow the kind of
       | access that would make (b) possible) and the answer for (a) is
       | "we can't wait we have to get our names out there first"
       | 
       | I'm disappointed to see these types of posts on HN. Where is the
       | science?
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | Honestly I've not found a huge amount of value from the
         | "science".
         | 
         | There are plenty of papers out there that look at LLM
         | productivity and every one of them seems to have glaring
         | methodology limitations and/or reports on models that are 12+
         | months out of date.
         | 
         | Have you seen any papers that really elevated your
         | understanding of LLM productivity with real-world engineering
         | teams?
        
           | mccoyb wrote:
           | No, I agree! But I don't think that observation gives us
           | license to avoid the problem.
           | 
           | Further, I'm not sure this elevates my understanding: I've
           | read many posts on this space which could be viewed as
           | analogous to this one (this one is more tempered, of course).
           | Each one has this same flaw: someone is telling me I need to
           | make a "organization" out of agents and positive things will
           | follow.
           | 
           | Without a serious evaluation, how am I supposed to validate
           | the author's ontology?
           | 
           | Do you disagree with my assessment? Do you view the claims in
           | this content as solid and reproducible?
           | 
           | My own view is that these are "soft ideas" (GasTown, Ralph
           | fall into a similar category) without the rigorous
           | justification.
           | 
           | What this amounts to is "synthetic biology" with billion
           | dollar probability distributions -- where the incentives are
           | setup so that companies are incentivized to convey that they
           | have the "secret sauce" ... for massive amounts of money.
           | 
           | To that end, it's difficult to trust a word out of anyone's
           | mouth -- even if my empirical experiences match (along some
           | projection).
        
             | simonw wrote:
             | The multi-agent "swarm" thing (that seems to be the term
             | that's bubbling to the top at the moment) is so new and
             | frothy that is difficult to determine how useful it
             | actually is.
             | 
             | StrongDM's implementation is the most impressive I've seen
             | myself, but it's also _incredibly_ expensive. Is it worth
             | the cost?
             | 
             | Cursor's FastRender experiment was also interesting but
             | also expensive for what was achieved.
             | 
             | I think my favorite current example at the moment was
             | Anthropic's $20,000 C compiler from the other day. But
             | they're an AI vendor, demos from non-vendors carry more
             | weight.
             | 
             | I've seen enough to be convinced that there's _something_
             | there, but I 'm also confident we aren't close to figuring
             | out the optimal way of putting this stuff to work yet.
        
           | svara wrote:
           | The writing on this website is giving strong web3 vibes to me
           | / doesn't smell right.
           | 
           | The only reason I'm not dismissing it out of hand is
           | basically because you said this team was worth taking a look
           | at.
           | 
           | I'm not looking for a huge amount of statistical ceremony,
           | but some detail would go a long way here.
           | 
           | What exactly was achieved for what effort and how?
        
             | simonw wrote:
             | Yeah, they've not produced as much detail as I'd hoped -
             | but there's still enough good stuff in there that it's a
             | valuable set of information.
        
           | voidhorse wrote:
           | But the absence of papers is precisely the problem and why
           | all this LLM stuff has become a new religion in the tech
           | sphere.
           | 
           | Either you have faith and every post like this fills you with
           | fervor and pious excitement for the latest miracles performed
           | by machine gods.
           | 
           | Or you are a nonbeliever and each of these posts is yet
           | another false miracle you can chalk up to baseless
           | enthusiasm.
           | 
           | Without proper empirical method, we simply do not know.
           | 
           | What's even funnier about it is that large-scale empirical
           | testing is actually necessary in the first place to verify
           | that a stochastic processes is even doing what you want (at
           | least on average). But the tech community has become such a
           | brainless atmosphere totally absorbed by anecdata and
           | marketing hype that no one simply seems to care anymore. It's
           | quite literally devolved into the religious ceremony of
           | performing the rain dance (use AI) because we said so.
           | 
           | One thing the papers help provide is basic _understanding_
           | and consistent terminology, even when the models change. You
           | may not find value in them but I assure you that the actual
           | building of models and product improvements around them is
           | highly dependent on the continual production of scientific
           | research in machine learning, _including_ experiments around
           | applications of llms. The literature covers many prompting
           | techniques well, and in a scientific fashion, and many of
           | these have been adopted directly in products (chain of
           | thought, to name one big example--part of the reason people
           | integrate it is not because of some  "fingers crossed guys,
           | worked on my query" but because researchers have produced
           | actual statistically significant results on benchmarks using
           | the technique) To be a bit harsh, I find your very dismissal
           | of the literature here in favor of hype-drenched blog posts
           | soaked in ridiculous language and fantastical incantations to
           | be precisely symptomatic of the brain rot the LLM craze has
           | produced in the technical community.
        
       | svilen_dobrev wrote:
       | how about the elephant.. Apart of business-spec itself, Where-
       | from all those (supply-chain) API specs/documentation are going
       | to come? After, say, 3 iterations in this vein, of the API-makers
       | themselves ??
        
       | Alex_L_Wood wrote:
       | >If you haven't spent at least $1,000 on tokens today per human
       | engineer, your software factory has room for improvement
       | 
       | ...What am I even reading? Am I crazy to think this is a crazy
       | thing to say, or it's actually crazy?
        
         | delusional wrote:
         | It's crazy if you're an engineer. It's pretty common for middle
         | managers to quantify "progress" in terms of "spend".
         | 
         | My bosses bosses boss like to claim that we're successfully
         | moving to the cloud because the cost is increasing year over
         | year.
        
           | FuckButtons wrote:
           | Appropriate username.
        
           | dexwiz wrote:
           | Growth will be proportional to spend. You can cut waste later
           | and celebrate efficiency. So when growing there isn't much
           | incentive to do it efficiently. You are just robbing yourself
           | of a potential future victory. Also it's legitimately
           | difficult to maximize growth while prioritizing efficiency.
           | It's like how a body builder cycles between bulking and
           | cutting. For mid to long term outlooks it's probably the best
           | strategy.
        
         | gassi wrote:
         | My favorite conspiracy theory is that these projects/blog posts
         | are secretly backed by big-AI tech companies, to offset their
         | staggering losses by convincing executives to shovel pools of
         | money into AI tools.
        
           | nosuchthing wrote:
           | Slop influencers like Peter Steinberger get paid to promote
           | AI vibe coding startups and the agentic token burning hype.
           | Ironically they're so deep into the impulsivity of it all
           | that they can't even hide it. The latest frontier models all
           | continue to suffer from hallucinations and slop at scale.
           | - Factory, unconvinced. Their marketing videos are just too
           | cringe, and any company that tries to get my attentions with
           | free tokens in my DMs reduce my respect for them. If you're
           | that good, you don't need to convince me by giving me free
           | stuff. Additionally, some posts on Twitter about it have this
           | paid influencer smell. If you use claude code tho, you'll
           | feel right at home with the [signature flicker](https://x.com
           | /badlogicgames/status/1977103325192667323).                 +
           | Factory, unconvinced. Their videos are a bit cringe, I do
           | hear good things in my timeline about it tho, even if images
           | aren't supported (yet) and they have the [signature flicker](
           | https://x.com/badlogicgames/status/1977103325192667323).
           | 
           | https://github.com/steipete/steipete.me/commit/725a3cb372bc2.
           | ..
        
           | coffeefirst wrote:
           | Like this?
           | 
           | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-pay-
           | creator...
        
             | simonw wrote:
             | Provided the sponsored content is labelled "sponsored
             | content" this is above board.
             | 
             | If it's not labelled it's in violation of FTC regulations,
             | for both the companies and the individuals.
             | 
             | [ That said... I'm surprised at this example on LinkedIn
             | that was linked to by the Washington Post -
             | https://www.linkedin.com/posts/meganlieu_claudepartner-
             | activ... - the only hint it's sponsored content is the
             | #ClaudePartner hashtag at the end, is that enough? Oh wait!
             | There's text under the profile that says "Brand
             | partnership" which I missed, I guess that's the LinkedIn
             | standard for this? Feels a bit weak to me!
             | https://www.linkedin.com/help/linkedin/answer/a1627083 ]
        
           | sesm wrote:
           | Secretly? Most blog posts praising coding agents put
           | something like 'I use $200 Claude subscription' in bold in
           | 2nd-3rd paragraph.
        
           | zozbot234 wrote:
           | Is it really a secret, when Anthropic posted a project of
           | building a C compiler totally from scratch for $20k
           | equivalent token spend, as an official article on their own
           | blog? $20k is quite insane for such a self-contained project,
           | if that's genuinely the amount that these tools require
           | that's literally the best possible argument for running
           | something open and leveraging competitive 3rd party
           | inference.
        
           | 7777332215 wrote:
           | They have to be. Or these droves of people writing this stuff
           | do not deal with real systems with thousands of customers, a
           | team who needs to get paid, and a reputation to uphold. Fatal
           | errors that cause permanent damage are unacceptable.
        
         | davedx wrote:
         | Meanwhile, me
         | 
         | > $20/month Claude sub
         | 
         | > $20/month OpenAI sub
         | 
         | > When Claude Code runs out, switch to Codex
         | 
         | > When Codex runs out, go for a walk with the dogs or read a
         | book
         | 
         | I'm not an accelerationist singularity neohuman. Oh well, I
         | still get plenty done
        
           | siliconc0w wrote:
           | same (at least for now, Codex seems to be much more token
           | efficient)
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | $1k per day, 50 work weeks, 5 day a week - $250k a year. That
         | is, to be worth it, the AI should work as well as an engineer
         | that costs a company $250k. Between taxes, social security, and
         | cost of office space, that engineer would be paid, say,
         | $170-180k a year, like an average-level senior software
         | engineer in the US.
         | 
         | This is not an outrageous amount of money, _if the productivity
         | is there_. More likely the AI would work like two $90k junior
         | engineers, but without a need to pay for a vacation, office
         | space, social security, etc. If the productivity ends up higher
         | than this, it 's pure profit; I suppose this is their bet.
         | 
         | The human engineer would be like a tech lead guiding a tea of
         | juniors, only designing plans and checking results above the
         | level of code proper, but for exceptional cases, like when a
         | human engineer would look at the assembly code a compiler has
         | produced.
         | 
         | This does sound exaggeratedly optimistic now, but does not
         | sound crazy.
        
           | lbreakjai wrote:
           | $250k a year, for now. What's to stop anthropic for doubling
           | the price if your entire business depends on it? What are you
           | gonna do, close shops?
        
             | drited wrote:
             | By then perhaps it will be possible to continue with local
             | LLMs
        
             | teaearlgraycold wrote:
             | What's to stop them? Competition.
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | that worked real well for cloud computing
               | 
               | aws and gcp's margins are legendarily poor
               | 
               | oh, wait
        
               | riku_iki wrote:
               | gcp was net negative until last year.
               | 
               | Big part of why clouds are expensive is not necessary
               | hardware, but all software infra and complexity of all
               | services.
        
               | lbreakjai wrote:
               | From whom? OpenAI and Google? Who else has the sort of
               | resources to train and run SOTA models at scale?
               | 
               | You just reduced the supply of engineers from millions to
               | just three. If you think it was expensive before ...
        
           | skeeter2020 wrote:
           | >> $170-180k a year, like an average-level senior software
           | engineer in the US.
           | 
           | I hear things like this all the time, but outside of a few
           | major centers it's just not the norm. And no companies are
           | spending anything like $1k / month on remote work
           | environments.
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | I mean, it's _at best_ an average-level senior engineer
             | salary, not some exorbitant L6 Googler salary.
        
           | nixass wrote:
           | > 50 work weeks
           | 
           | What dystopia is this?
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | This is a simplification to make the calculation more
             | straightforward. But a typical US workplace honors about 11
             | to 13 federal holidays. I assume that an AI does not need a
             | vacation, but can't work 2 days straight autonomously when
             | its human handlers are enjoying a weekend.
        
             | fipar wrote:
             | I took it as a napkin rounding of 365/7 because that's the
             | floor you pay an employee regardless of vacation time (in
             | places like my country you'd add an extra month plus the
             | prorated amount based on how many vacation days the
             | employee has), so, not that people work 50 weeks per year,
             | it's just a reasonable approximation of what the cost the
             | hiring company.
        
           | pydry wrote:
           | It sounds exaggeratedly crazy.
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | That nobody wants to actually do it is already a problem, but
           | some basically true thing is that _somebody_ has to pay those
           | $90k junior engineers for a couple years to turn them into
           | senior engineers.
           | 
           | The seem to be plenty of people willing to pay the AI do that
           | junior engineer level work, so wouldn't it make sense to
           | defect and just wait until it has gained enough experience to
           | do the senior engineer work?
        
         | PKop wrote:
         | It's not so much crazy as very lame and stupid and dumb. The
         | moment has allowed people doing dumb things to somehow grab the
         | attention of many in the industry for a few moments. There's
         | nothing "there".
        
         | jaytaylor wrote:
         | I'm one of the StrongDM trio behind this tenet. The core claim
         | is simple: it's easy to spend $1k/day on tokens, but hard (even
         | with three people) to do it in a way that stays reliably
         | productive.
        
         | sethev wrote:
         | Yeah, it's hard to read the article without getting a cringy
         | feeling of second hand embarrassment. The setup is weird too,
         | in that it seems to imply that the little snippets of "wisdom"
         | should be used as prompts to an LLM to come to their same
         | conclusions, when of course this style of prompt will reliably
         | produce congratulatory dreck.
         | 
         | Setting aside the absurdity of using dollars per day spent on
         | tokens as the new lines of code per day, have they not heard of
         | mocks or simulation testing? These are long proven techniques,
         | but they appear bent on taking credit for some kind
         | revolutionary discovery by recasting these standard techniques
         | as a Digital Twin Universe.
         | 
         | One positive(?) thing I'll say is that this fits well with my
         | experience of people who like to talk about software factories
         | (or digital factories), but at least they're up front about the
         | massive cost of this type of approach - whereas "digital
         | factories" are typically cast as a miracle cure that will
         | reduce costs dramatically somehow (once it's eventually done
         | correctly, of course).
         | 
         | Hard pass.
        
       | chopete3 wrote:
       | "These go to 11" The context behind it
       | 
       | https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4xgx4k83zzc&pp=ygUOdGhlc2UgZ28...
        
       | insuranceguru wrote:
       | the agentic shift is where the legal and insurance worlds are
       | really going to struggle. we know how to model human error, but
       | modeling an autonomous loop that makes a chain of small decisions
       | leading to a systemic failure is a whole different beast. the
       | audit trail requirements for these factories are going to be a
       | regulatory nightmare.
        
         | rimbo789 wrote:
         | I think the insurance industry is will take a simpler route:
         | humans will be held 100% responsible. Any decisions made by the
         | ai will be the responsibility of the human instructing that ai.
         | Always.
         | 
         | I think this will act as a brake on the agentic shift as a
         | whole.
        
       | kykat wrote:
       | I'm just going to say: When opening the "twins" (bad clones)
       | screenshots, I pressed the right key to view the next image, and
       | surprise, the next "article" of the top navigation bar was
       | loaded, instead of showing the next image.
       | 
       | Is this the quality we should expect from agentic? From my
       | experiments with claude code, yes, the UX details are never
       | there. Especially for bigger features. It can work reasonably
       | well independently up to a "module" level (with clear
       | interfaces). But for full app design, while technically possible,
       | the UX and visual design is just not there.
       | 
       | And I am very not attracted to the idea of polishing such an
       | agentic apps. A solution could be: 1. The boss prompts the system
       | with what he wants. 2. The boss outsources to india the task of
       | polishing the rough edges.
       | 
       | ===
       | 
       | More on the arrow keys navigation: Pressing right on the last
       | "Products" page loops to the first "Story" page, yet pressing
       | left on the first page does nothing. Typical UX inconsistency of
       | vibe coded software.
        
       | swisniewski wrote:
       | Some of this is people trying to predict the future.
       | 
       | And it's not unreasonable to assume it's going there.
       | 
       | That being said, the models are not there yet. If you care about
       | quality, you still need humans in the loop.
       | 
       | Even when given high quality specs, and existing code to use as
       | an example, and lots of parallelism and orchestration, the models
       | still make a lot of mistakes.
       | 
       | There's lots of room for Software Factories, and Orchestrators,
       | and multi agent swarms.
       | 
       | But today you still need humans reviewing code before you merge
       | to main.
       | 
       | Models are getting better, quickly, but I think it's going to be
       | a while before "don't have humans look at the code" is true.
        
       | Dumblydorr wrote:
       | What would happen if these agents are given a token lifespan, and
       | are told to continually spend tokens to create more agentic
       | children, and give their genetic and data makeup such as it is to
       | children that it creates with other agents sexually potentially,
       | but then tokens are limited and they can not get enough without
       | certain traits.
       | 
       | Wouldn't they start to evolve to be able to reproduce more and
       | eat more tokens? And then they'd be mature agents to take further
       | human prompts to gain more tokens?
       | 
       | Would you see certain evolutionary strategies reemerge like
       | carnivores eating weaker agents for tokens, eating of detritus of
       | old code, or would it be more like evolution of roles in a
       | company?
       | 
       | I assume the hurdles would be agents reproducing? How is that
       | implemented?
        
         | tayo42 wrote:
         | I'll have 1 of what ever this guy's got please.
        
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