[HN Gopher] Fraud investigation is believing your lying eyes
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Fraud investigation is believing your lying eyes
        
       Author : dangrossman
       Score  : 118 points
       Date   : 2026-02-06 17:24 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bitsaboutmoney.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bitsaboutmoney.com)
        
       | poplarsol wrote:
       | Patrick is too polite to mention it, but frauds work much better
       | if the fraudsters are also fully integrated into the political
       | machine of the people nominally investigating the fraud.
        
         | tptacek wrote:
         | I don't think that's in evidence. Institutionalized and
         | ideologically-driven apathy towards the fraud, sure, but that's
         | not uncommon (see: the defense industry; the finance industry).
        
           | learingsci wrote:
           | A distinction without a difference imo. I think most people
           | rightfully surmise the defense and financial industries are
           | rife with, if not outright fraud, at least waste and abuse.
           | We could use better language perhaps.
        
         | christkv wrote:
         | Its hilarious how short human memory is. To me Minnesota just
         | seems like a replay of Tammany Hall in NYC
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | Then I think you need to read more about Tammany Hall,
           | because it was not simply a widespread pattern of fraud in
           | social services.
        
             | christkv wrote:
             | There was few social services at the time. It was a
             | patronage system. Different rewards but buying votes all
             | the same. My point is that patronage is a long storied
             | American tradition so I don't know why people are al
             | shocked that such schemes are still ongoing. Republican and
             | anti castro cubans is or was a similar patronage system.
        
       | sdwr wrote:
       | All I remember hearing about this is how creepy and racist it was
       | to look for kids at a black-owned daycare. It was a scam the
       | whole time?
        
         | clucas wrote:
         | According to OP, there is substantial evidence indicating about
         | 50% of the daycares are scams. I've seen Nick Shirley's video,
         | I don't think he demonstrated any concrete about any of the
         | sites he visited (he's not a very good investigator), but if
         | the 50% number is correct... well, the broken clock was
         | probably right at least a couple of times that day.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | The 2019 OLA report "Child Care Assistance Program:
           | Assessment of Fraud Allegations" is what makes the claim that
           | _greater_ than 50% of reimbursements to child care providers
           | _under these specific programs_ were fraudulent. That
           | estimate is broadly and bipartisanly considered to be
           | directionally true.
        
             | bonsai_spool wrote:
             | Have you read the document? I often find these things that
             | we believe to be true wind up being a game of telephone. We
             | further have no prior (is the metric of this sort of like
             | how everyone has committed a crime given sufficient
             | prosecutorial attention)?
             | 
             | I've also never heard of this report before this year as
             | someone quite attuned to what happens in Minnesota.
             | 
             | One document contributor contends, notably, that if "adult
             | "employees" spend hours in hallways chatting with other
             | adults [...] the entire amount paid to that provider in a
             | given year is the fraud amount."
             | 
             | I'll leave the assessment of that definition to readers.
             | https://www.auditor.leg.state.mn.us/sreview/ccap.pdf
        
       | renewiltord wrote:
       | Yeah, the fraud's been around for a while and the Biden DoJ was
       | investigating it. One of the guys got fingered trying to bribe a
       | juror1 but he stole half the bribe money.
       | 
       | The politicization of the issue means that Democratic Party
       | aligned people continually flag any reference to the scam on HN
       | though. If anyone else said that someone broke in and stole all
       | the records from a daycare days after it was accused of fraud it
       | would be considered a bald-faced lie but because of the political
       | alignment (this is VP candidate Walz's state) everyone is forced
       | to pretend there's no scam.
       | 
       | 1 Paradoxically the one honest juror who reported the bribe was
       | removed from the case. No others reported any bribe which
       | obviously must mean they received none.
        
         | linkregister wrote:
         | Rather than stating, without data, that Democratic Party
         | alignment led to flagging of the story here on HN, one can look
         | at the numerous overt statements by some of the most active
         | users. These users claim they spend significant time flagging
         | all political stories not tied to computing or science.
         | 
         | These statements are trivially found using
         | https://hn.algolia.com.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | Typing "Trump" into that trivially reveals disparate
           | outcomes. Then again perhaps "Trump says Maduro captured" is
           | computing and science to these people. I have no peer-
           | reviewed evidence that they don't think that so I must admit
           | it as equally likely as anything else.
        
             | linkregister wrote:
             | It is a common error to misunderstand the base rate of an
             | event. In this case, the frequency of media articles about
             | Trump dwarf other political subjects.
             | 
             | Or one could assume a vast conspiracy to explain the
             | phenomenon.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | False dichotomies like that are easy mistakes to make.
               | Consider Reddit, no conspiracy, and yet overwhelmingly of
               | some opinions. Coordination requiring conspiracies is
               | naive, but forgivable among novices of epistemology.
        
       | hyperpape wrote:
       | > They will sometimes organize recruitment very openly, using the
       | same channels you use for recruiting at any other time: open
       | Facebook groups, Reddit threads, and similar. They will film
       | TikTok videos flashing their ill-gotten gains, and explaining
       | steps in order for how you, too, can get paid.
       | 
       | > As a fraud investigator, you are allowed and encouraged to read
       | Facebook at work.
       | 
       | I tend to believe this, but it would be a lot more compelling
       | with links to a case where Facebook/TikTok posts were useful
       | evidence.
        
         | margalabargala wrote:
         | There are tons of these out there.
         | 
         | In late 2024 there was the whole "Infinite money glitch" tiktok
         | trend that was just check fraud.
         | 
         | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gzp7y8e7vo
        
           | hyperpape wrote:
           | Good example, though my impression was that was a quasi-viral
           | TikTok trend that caught up random fools, not organized
           | fraud?
        
             | mananaysiempre wrote:
             | Is that contradictory? Seems like organized fraud would
             | need a supply of random fools, and a viral trend, if you
             | can manage one, isn't a bad way to get that.
        
               | wredcoll wrote:
               | You need a central actor who is benefitting from all the
               | fools
        
               | hyperpape wrote:
               | Organized fraud preys on disorganized fools, but this
               | fraud didn't require or benefit from organization. You
               | could just go do it on your own, and pocket the money
               | until you got a visit from the cops.
        
             | wredcoll wrote:
             | Yeah, I fail to see the organization.
        
           | spbaar wrote:
           | This is a poor example though, because I don't think anyone
           | got away with it? And it was viral, but not organized.
        
         | danielvf wrote:
         | Here's a rap video, the entirety of which bragging about fraud
         | against the government:
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0ck7hTsug8
         | 
         | "I just been swipin' for EDD
         | 
         | Go to the bank, get a stack at least
         | 
         | This ** here better than sellin' Ps
         | 
         | I made some racks that I couldn't believe
         | 
         | Ten cards, that's two-hunnid large"
         | 
         | (For context, "EDD" is California's Employment Development
         | Department.)
        
           | hyperpape wrote:
           | With Google I can find out that he was prosecuted after his
           | video came out. I'll count it. https://abc7.com/post/nuke-
           | bizzle-rapper-edd-fraud/12024561/
        
           | Natsu wrote:
           | It's interesting to note that some states restrict the use of
           | rap music lyrics as evidence:
           | 
           | https://legalclarity.org/using-rap-lyrics-as-evidence-in-
           | cri...
        
           | _neil wrote:
           | Much better bangers about fraud:
           | 
           | Dead Prez - Hell yeah:
           | https://youtu.be/kGjSq4HqP9Y?si=_z6jb0Vfo7_PiITQ&t=82
           | 
           | Maxo Kream - 5200: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kC9j6Zp-
           | kg
           | 
           | Maxo was actually arrested for racketeering, though not due
           | to this song specifically (I don't think).
        
       | 650 wrote:
       | Great article, ties in neatly with observations among many that
       | fraud, grifting, and devolution of the social contract has
       | escalated greatly since 2020.
        
         | arduanika wrote:
         | I don't think anything in the article, or in Patrick's general
         | work, makes strong claims about a trend. Fraud may be getting
         | worse as you say, but that is not his beat. He tends to depict
         | fraud as eternal, and wants to shed light on it as a technical
         | problem to solve.
         | 
         | Also, there are real dangers to blackpilling about fraud.
         | "Everybody is doing it" is exactly what one says before doing
         | fraud oneself. In reality, there are a lot of people out there
         | doing the right thing every day.
        
       | laidoffamazon wrote:
       | > To the extent that Bits about Money has an editorial line on
       | that controversy, it is this: if you fish in a pond known to have
       | 50% blue fish, and pull out nine fish, you will appear to be a
       | savant-like catcher of blue fish, and people claiming that it is
       | unlikely you have identified a blue fish will swiftly be made to
       | look like fools. But the interesting bit of the observation is,
       | almost entirely, the base rate of the pond. And I think
       | journalism and civil society should do some genuine soul-
       | searching on how we knew--knew--the state of that pond, but
       | didn't consider it particularly important or newsworthy until
       | someone started fishing on camera.
       | 
       | Does Patrick want to address the fact that this happened during
       | school break and that Nick Shirley didn't prove much of anything?
        
         | tptacek wrote:
         | No? He dunks on Shirley. His point is that professional
         | investigators found and documented much worse things.
        
           | wredcoll wrote:
           | Except for the part where when asked for proof he laughed off
           | the idea of using convictions as a measure of accuracy.
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | The entire story of what happened in Minnesota, as agreed
             | on by basically everybody involved including significant
             | chunks of the government of Minnesota, is that convictions
             | are not a reasonable measure of accuracy here. The story is
             | that they didn't pursue fraud prosecutions in proportion to
             | their severity. Responding to that with "but there weren't
             | convictions" is literally just begging the question.
             | 
             | It's very annoying that I feel like I have to say this but:
             | I'm a committed Democrat, and I feel like my anti-Trump
             | anti-racism bona fides, including on this site, are quite
             | solid. The Minnesota thing happened. We can debate the
             | scale, but it happened.
        
               | wredcoll wrote:
               | My ultimate take on the article is "so what?"
               | 
               | Yes, fraud is bad. I agreed before I read the article.
               | 
               | I've learned (from the article) that there was apparently
               | some fraud in Minnesota, some of which was successfully
               | prosecuted and, possibly, some that wasn't.
               | 
               | If pressed, I would say the take away from the article is
               | that the fraud investigators should have been more
               | willing to use race/ethnicity and accept a lower standard
               | of evidence before taking action.
               | 
               | Is there something I'm missing?
        
               | blurbleblurble wrote:
               | That's what I'm getting from this article too. It's
               | giving "Nick Shirley in the style of lots of extra
               | words".
        
               | blurbleblurble wrote:
               | Did you read the actual report? The part about how a
               | single investigator didn't like how some daycares were
               | run, the level of supervision, and then used that to
               | extrapolate a hypothetical invalidation of all payments
               | to those facilities as "fraudulent"?
               | 
               | Democrats have rationalized much worse things than this,
               | for example the ethnic cleansing (genocide) in Gaza. So
               | with all due respect frankly I'm not at all assuaged by
               | your caveat.
        
               | dtornabene wrote:
               | For the record, your "anti-racism bona fides" are not in
               | anyway "quite solid". I'm on record for pointing out the
               | shocking racism in the ways you have denigrated
               | Palestinians on this site, for a couple years now! I can
               | link to multiple examples of this, its not hidden and you
               | did not stop (unless you have gone back and deleted the
               | comments, haven't checked yet!), on the contrary you had
               | dang threaten to ban me. Also worth pointing out 1) that
               | the shared the religion of many of these Somalis and
               | Palestinians definitely makes me wonder about your own
               | feelings here 2) the person whose article under
               | discussion, which is very much a white wash of a racist
               | provocateur who is not a "journalist", is one of your own
               | former business partners. You are free to whine to dang
               | again and get me banned now, but I repeat, you are not in
               | any way someone who should get to stand on your "anti-
               | racism bona fides" especially when the people in question
               | are brown muslims. As I posted in my last comment to you,
               | and dang, I approached your racism exactly how you
               | ostensibly would want, I gently encouraged you to
               | reconsider, to examine other sources, etc. Hasn't really
               | seemed to have any effect! You still post genocide
               | propaganda and out and out racism, like "All Palestinians
               | actually should just live in Jordan".
        
               | arduanika wrote:
               | > (unless you have gone back and deleted the comments,
               | haven't checked yet!)
               | 
               | Minor point: I'm pretty sure that HN comments cannot be
               | deleted/edited after about an hour. Very different from
               | most web forums in this regard, and worth keeping in mind
               | when digging into past discussions! Maybe the rules are
               | different for a superuser like tptacek here with lots of
               | karma, but I doubt it.
               | 
               | Correct me if I'm wrong.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Nobody can go back and delete comments the way that
               | person is claiming. What a weird thing for him to have
               | said.
        
             | saint_fiasco wrote:
             | My bicicle got stolen a long time ago and I never recovered
             | it. The perpetrator was never caught.
             | 
             | From this we can conclude many things. Maybe the thief was
             | very crafty. Maybe the local police are incompetent. Maybe
             | everyone is trying their best and the job of going after
             | bike thieves is very hard.
             | 
             | But you cannot ever convince me that an appropriate
             | conclussion could be "your bicicle didn't actually get
             | stolen". I saw it. I can't identify the thief, there will
             | never be a conviction, but don't tell me it didn't happen.
             | 
             | A conviction in a court of law is very important to be able
             | to confidently say "so-and-so has committed fraud". But
             | requiring a criminal conviction just to be able to say that
             | fraud has happened is lunacy.
        
           | blurbleblurble wrote:
           | As if: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46916838
           | 
           | What if this article is just the rationalist version of the
           | Nick Shirley hit piece?
        
       | dispersed wrote:
       | Under "In which we briefly return to Minnesota":
       | 
       | > And I think journalism and civil society should do some genuine
       | soul-searching on how we knew--knew--the state of that pond, but
       | didn't consider it particularly important or newsworthy until
       | someone started fishing on camera.
       | 
       | In... the same section where he cites all of the evidence the
       | government has put together against the fraudsters. What is the
       | issue? That these investigations should have been more
       | prominently featured in the mainstream news? Would that have
       | helped or hurt investigations?
       | 
       | > Of course, as the New York Times very carefully wordsmithed
       | recently:
       | 
       | >> Minnesota officials said in early January that the state
       | conducted compliance checks at nine child-care centers after Mr.
       | Shirley posted his video and found them "operating as expected,"
       | although it had "ongoing investigations" at four of them. One of
       | the centers, which Mr. Shirley singled out because it misspelled
       | the word "Learning" on its sign, has since voluntarily closed.
       | 
       | > An inattentive reader might conclude from this paragraph that
       | the Times disputes Shirley's reporting.
       | 
       | The New York Times is _literally_ quoting what the Minnesota
       | officials said. What were they supposed to do, add on  "but a kid
       | on YouTube says differently"?
       | 
       | I don't think the serious response to Nick Shirley's "journalism"
       | is that there was no fraud; rather, it's that he came into the
       | situation with a thinly veiled agenda and fed his audience
       | exactly what they wanted to hear. Did his video make it more or
       | less likely that we'll be able to investigate and resolve the
       | fraud situation in MN? I guess that depends on how serious you
       | think the laughably corrupt Trump administration is, but the fact
       | that they seized on this as an excuse to send in 3000 ICE agents
       | is not exactly promising.
        
         | danielvf wrote:
         | The report to the government about a more than 50% fraud rate
         | was from six years ago. The Minnesota government was not
         | serious about dealing with problem. Most businesses would not
         | last that long with a 50% customer fraud rate.
         | 
         | Yes, there were some investigations and convictions, but
         | nothing to on a scale that would deal with problem, nor any
         | systematic change to a level paying huge amounts of money to
         | scammers.
        
           | dispersed wrote:
           | First: assuming your goal is to stop the fraud, does making
           | deliberately inflammatory YouTube videos get you closer to
           | that goal? I think the government's response clearly shows
           | that they're more interested in the optics of "blue state
           | full of scammer immigrants" than any actual resolution.
           | 
           | Second: I think one of the points Patrick misses is that
           | fraud did indisputably occur, but that doesn't mean we need
           | to treat Shirley as a neutral observer who simply cares about
           | fiscal responsibility. (If I'm wrong, I eagerly away his next
           | video on red state fraud.)
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | He's not treating Shirley as a neutral observer; he's
             | lamenting Shirley's involvement, which has impeded efforts
             | to clean this up.
        
           | cogman10 wrote:
           | 5 years ago. And it looks like the state was actually taking
           | pretty aggressive moves against the fraud including ongoing
           | investigations and legislation to shut down the fraud. [1]
           | 
           | There was active prosecution ongoing literally right up until
           | Shirly's video. That's taking the matter seriously.
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020s_Minnesota_fraud_scandals
        
             | joe_mamba wrote:
             | _> There was active prosecution ongoing literally right up
             | until Shirly's video_
             | 
             | Oh yeah, the prosecution was _sooo_ active that all the
             | daycares listed as operational and receiving funding, had
             | no kids in them, had blacked out or boarded up windows,
             | misspelled signs, and if you went in to ask for enrollment
             | 3 angry men would come out shouting at you. How many legit
             | daycares have you seen that look like that?
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | Yes, because when I enroll a child in a daycare I start
               | by wandering around the facilities with a camera man and
               | then I demand to see the children. But sure is suspicious
               | that this place has no kids in it when I visit it outside
               | it's posted operation hours.
               | 
               | Nick did a day worth of shooting, didn't follow up, and
               | didn't check basic things like hours of operation.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Right, everybody, especially the author of this piece,
               | agrees that what Shirley did was bad and stupid. And also
               | unnecessary, because we had documentary evidence from the
               | Minnesota government itself showing the scale of the
               | fraud here.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | I doubt Patrick is the world's biggest Nick Shirley fan,
               | but that's not really how it's conveyed in the article.
               | 
               | Shirley gets acknowledged to have "poor epistemic
               | standards" (which is an almost euphemistic way of
               | describing his approach) but Patrick goes on to say that
               | "the _journalism_ develops one bit of evidence.... " and
               | even appears to insinuate the NYT erred in reporting it
               | in the context of the Minnesota government's response
               | that the state's own compliance checks had found them
               | open shortly afterwards but that some of them were under
               | investigation.
               | 
               | There's an interesting point to be made that detailed,
               | bipartisan evidence collected by suitably qualified
               | officials that some daycenters were closed at times they
               | were claimed to be open gets less attention than a
               | YouTuber with an agenda rocking up at nurseries at what
               | may or may not have been their opening times, but that's
               | not how it's actually expressed. Rather it seems to be
               | arguing for face value judgements of his video and
               | against journalists that felt compelled to point out that
               | whilst evidence of daycare fraud by Somalis in Minnesota
               | definitely existed, Shirley's videos probably shouldn't
               | be considered part of it.
        
               | patio11 wrote:
               | The way I phrased that point was "The investigators
               | allege repeatedly visiting daycare centers which did not,
               | factually, have children physically present at the
               | facility despite reimbursement paperwork identifying
               | specific children being present at that specific time.
               | The investigators demonstrated these lies on timestamped
               | video, and perhaps in another life would have been
               | YouTube stars."
        
               | dtornabene wrote:
               | He does not in fact call what Shirley did "bad and
               | stupid". He calls him a journalist!
        
               | joe_mamba wrote:
               | _> I start by wandering around the facilities with a
               | camera man_
               | 
               | How does one wandering around with a camera affect the
               | fact that the daycares had blacked out or boarded up
               | windows, misspelled signs, and if you went in to ask for
               | enrollment then 3 angry men would come out shouting at
               | you?
               | 
               | Do you even hear yourself? Are they Schrodinger's
               | daycares? Do they become compliant the moment you stop
               | filming them?
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | Tell you what, go get a camera man and go visit your
               | local daycare center. Post on youtube how they respond.
        
               | joe_mamba wrote:
               | You're beating it around the bush going offtopic and
               | ignoring my question:
               | 
               | How does having a camera impact the daycare having a
               | misspelled sign and boarded up windows?
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | > You're beating it around the bush going offtopic and
               | ignoring my question:
               | 
               | No I'm not, you just don't like the answer. But at least
               | you've edited to remove the "3 guys yelling at you"
               | portion as I think even you can see how that might be a
               | reasonable thing to do to a creep going around you
               | business filming everything.
               | 
               | > daycare having a misspelled sign and boarded up
               | windows?
               | 
               | The answer to this question is simple, a poor one. And I
               | suspect that a daycare that primarily gets it's funds
               | from people using government welfare likely isn't rolling
               | in the dough. Broken windows are expensive to fix, boards
               | are cheap. A misspelled sign is embarrassing but again
               | could easily be something that the owner of the
               | facilities just wasn't assed to pay to replace and
               | properly fix.
               | 
               | My spouse worked for years in that sort of daycare which
               | is why it's unsurprising to me that a daycare in that
               | state exists. She, for example, did a full summer in Utah
               | without AC while the kids were fed baloney sandwiches
               | every day. Her's wasn't a daycare committing fraud, it
               | was just an owner that was cutting costs at every corner
               | to make sure their own personal wealth wasn't impacted.
               | 
               | A shitty daycare isn't an indicator of fraud. It's an
               | indicator that the state has low regulation standards for
               | daycares. Lots of states have that, and a lot of these
               | places end up staying in operation because states decide
               | that keeping open an F grade daycare is cheap and better
               | for the community vs closing it because it's crap
               | quality. They certainly don't often want to take control
               | of such a business and they know a competently ran one
               | isn't likely to replace it if it is shutdown.
        
               | joe_mamba wrote:
               | _> My spouse worked for years in that sort of daycare _
               | 
               | Was your spouse also one of the all-male crews that those
               | totally-not-a-scam MN daycares typically have?
               | 
               | How many legit daycares have you ever seen where the
               | staff is all men? And aggressive men at that. Just think
               | about it for 3 seconds.
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | Now you are going off topic. I suspect because you don't
               | like a reasonable answer that doesn't fit your fraud
               | narrative.
               | 
               | Men can work at daycares but also we have no clue what
               | those guys relationship to the business was.
               | 
               | Just think about it for 3 seconds.
        
               | joe_mamba wrote:
               | _> Now you are going off topic. [...] Men can work at
               | daycares _
               | 
               | No mate, YOU are going offtopic. I never said men CAN'T
               | work daycares, I asked you "How many legit daycares have
               | you ever seen where the staff is ALL-MEN?". This is the
               | n'th time in this thread you misread what I say, to the
               | point I can confidently say you're intentionally doing
               | this in bad faith to derail the conversation, which is
               | why this will be my last reply to you.
               | 
               |  _> also we have no clue what those guys relationship to
               | the business was._
               | 
               | Except they also interviewed MN citizens who live in the
               | area who also said they never saw any kids or women at
               | that daycare with the misspelled "Learing" sign.
               | 
               | How many more points on the graph that form a line do you
               | need to admit that it's an obvious scam?
               | 
               |  _> I suspect because you don't like a reasonable answer
               | that doesn't fit your fraud narrative._
               | 
               | I just look at the evidence and use critical thinking to
               | judge. You're the one not bringing any evidence to
               | support your not-a-scam narrative and intentionally
               | misreading my questions to give bad faith offtopic
               | answers.
               | 
               |  _> Just think about it for 3 seconds._
               | 
               | Parroting someone is flattering but not a sign of good
               | arguing skills.
        
               | zahlman wrote:
               | I predict that they would not spontaneously board up the
               | windows and introduce spelling errors into their signage.
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | To put it mildly I don't think there's a consensus among
             | Minnesota DFL-types who paid attention to this that the
             | state at any point took the matter seriously in proportion
             | to its severity. There's a lot of evidence that they did
             | the opposite thing. I try to avoid openly identifying my
             | partisan commitments (see this whole thread for why) but:
             | this shit is what we Democrats constantly dunk on the GOP
             | for doing, and we're not acquitting ourselves well here.
             | 
             | It's annoying that we're talking about this in these terms,
             | because the article is about public services fraud, and
             | it's mostly technical, and it's an interesting subject. We
             | shouldn't have to debate Tim Walz to engage with it.
        
             | zahlman wrote:
             | The volume of prosecution that had occurred or was slated
             | to occur was laughable compared to the amount of fraud
             | known or reasonably believed to have occurred. When it _is_
             | done at scale, prosecution is inefficient and much less
             | effective than reforming processes so as to preempt fraud,
             | which is not something that happened, as evidenced by the
             | continuing fraud after the initial round of prosecution.
             | 
             | FTA:
             | 
             | > So-called "pay-and-chase", where we put the burden on the
             | government to disallow payments for violations
             | retrospectively, has been enormously expensive and
             | ineffective. Civil liability bounces off of exists-only-to-
             | defraud LLC. Criminal prosecutions, among the most
             | expensive kinds of intervention the government is capable
             | of doing short of kinetic war, result in only a ~20%
             | reduction in fraudulent behavior. Rearchitecting the
             | process to require prior authorization resulted in an
             | "immediate and permanent" 68% reduction. (I commend to you
             | this research on Medicare fraud regarding dialysis
             | transport. And yes, the team did some interesting work to
             | distinguish fraudulent from legitimate usage of the
             | program. Non-emergency transport for dialysis specifically
             | had exploded in reimbursements--see Figure 1-- not because
             | American kidneys suddenly got worse but because fraudsters
             | adversarially targeted an identified weakness in Medicare.)
        
           | Brybry wrote:
           | He cites the 50% number from Jay Swanson, a CCAP
           | Investigations Unit manager, and then dismisses criticism of
           | the number by saying the criticism requires an unreasonable
           | standard (only criminal convictions).
           | 
           | But if you read the cited source of how Swanson came up with
           | that number he said it wasn't just for over-billing (claiming
           | more kids than the places actually had).
           | 
           | Instead, by his estimation, the employees working are not
           | actually working because 'children are unsupervised, running
           | from room to room while adult "employees" spend hours in
           | hallways chatting with other adults' and so _all_ of the
           | funds to those providers are fraudulent. [1]
           | 
           | I think it's pretty easy to criticize the logic for that 50%
           | fraud rate number without requiring criminal convictions.
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://www.auditor.leg.state.mn.us/sreview/ccap.pdf#page=16
        
             | tptacek wrote:
             | This is a great argument. I wish this is what we were
             | discussing rather than Nick Shirley and the partisan
             | politics of the issue.
        
               | plorkyeran wrote:
               | Oddly enough starting an article with a defense of Nick
               | Shirley leads to the comments on an article being about
               | that.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | I mean, I wouldn't have led off that way either, but I
               | know what Patrick is talking about and I read the
               | article. I genuinely believe the current administration
               | is the worst in the history of the country, and I also
               | believe that to oppose it effectively we need every
               | government body we run to be completely on the ball, so
               | it's really dispiriting to see people reflexively defend
               | misconduct and incompetence. That shouldn't be a habit we
               | share with the party we oppose.
               | 
               | (I can't speak for Patrick's politics, only for mine.)
        
         | zahlman wrote:
         | > What is the issue? That these investigations should have been
         | more prominently featured in the mainstream news?
         | 
         | Important points throughout the article include: relatively
         | little prosecution or enforcement occurred despite the
         | awareness of rampant fraud; officials were naive to the common
         | wisdom in fraud-prevention circles that people committing fraud
         | in the past correlates strongly with the same individuals
         | committing fraud in the future; "pay-and-chase" policies don't
         | preempt funding flows to individuals suspected of fraud until
         | it's established and feel the need to account for every
         | fraudulent dollar instead of just blacklisting known bad actors
         | the way that actual financial institutions do. FTA in
         | particular, all emphasis FTA:
         | 
         | > For example, the primary evidence of a child attending a day-
         | care was a handwritten sign-in sheet of minimal probative
         | value. Prosecutors referred to them as "almost comical" and
         | "useless." They were routinely fraudulently filled out by a 17
         | year old "signing" for dozens of parents sequentially in the
         | same handwriting, excepting cases where they were _simply
         | empty_.
         | 
         | > To refute this "evidence", the state forced itself to do
         | weeks of stakeouts, producing hundreds of hours of video
         | recording, after which it laboriously reconstructed exact
         | counts of children seen entering/exiting a facility, compared
         | it with the billing records, and then invoiced the centers
         | _only for proven overbilling_.
         | 
         | > On general industry knowledge, if you are selected for
         | examination in e.g. your credit card processing account, and
         | your submission of evidence is "Oh yeah, those transactions are
         | ones we customarily paperwork with a 17 year old committing
         | obvious fraud", your account _will be swiftly closed_. The
         | financial institution doesn't have to reach a conclusion about
         | every dollar which has ever flowed through your account. What
         | actual purpose would there be in shutting the barn door after
         | the horse has left? The only interesting question is what
         | you'll be doing tomorrow, and clearly what you intend to do
         | tomorrow _is fraud_.
         | 
         | Moving on,
         | 
         | > I don't think the serious response to Nick Shirley's
         | "journalism" is that there was no fraud; rather, it's that he
         | came into the situation with a thinly veiled agenda and fed his
         | audience exactly what they wanted to hear.
         | 
         | My take is that there's no good reason to suspect that, except
         | for holding an opposed thinly veiled agenda. And there is no
         | serious dispute of the fact that billions of dollars of fraud
         | occurred.
         | 
         | > Did his video make it more or less likely that we'll be able
         | to investigate and resolve the fraud situation in MN?
         | 
         | It clearly made it more likely, as demonstrated by federal
         | senate hearings that have extensively referenced the video
         | (I've seen a segment where a senator literally had a prop photo
         | of the "Quality Learing Center").
         | 
         | > the fact that they seized on this as an excuse to send in
         | 3000 ICE agents is not exactly promising.
         | 
         | Your premise is that a YouTube video published Dec 26, 2025
         | somehow motivated a federal law enforcement action that
         | commenced on Dec 4, 2025. Also, this claim conflates ICE with
         | CBP. Also, per Wikipedia, out of thousands of arrests, only 23
         | have been of Somalis; and it's been abundantly clear in all the
         | press functions that the _targets_ have overwhelmingly been
         | Hispanic -- because they 're overwhelmingly represented among
         | illegal immigrants in the US, including in MN.
        
           | comex wrote:
           | > Your premise is that a YouTube video published Dec 26, 2025
           | somehow motivated a federal law enforcement action that
           | commenced on Dec 4, 2025.
           | 
           | The surge of ~2,000 officers only happened around Jan 5-6,
           | 2026. And this happened after the video in question was
           | reposted by J.D. Vance and referenced by Kash Patel.
           | 
           | It's true that Operation Metro Surge as a whole started a
           | month earlier. But, zooming out from that specific video, the
           | operation was from the start motivated by the fraud scandal,
           | according to reliable sources [1]. Official statements around
           | this time of the later surge also referenced the fraud
           | scandal [2]. Meanwhile, Trump delivered several speeches
           | during this time complaining in racist terms about Somalis in
           | general.
           | 
           | It's also true that the actual activity of Operation Metro
           | Surge is mostly unrelated to the fraud. But that's the whole
           | point! The administration seized on the fraud, and later
           | seized on that specific video, as an excuse to send in ICE
           | and CBP agents to do something completely different. As the
           | parent said, this probably did not "make it more [..] likely
           | that we'll be able to investigate and resolve the fraud
           | situation in MN". Or if it did, it did so very inefficiently
           | compared to other possible approaches such as getting the FBI
           | to focus on it (which also happened). The surge did focus
           | public attention on the issue, which might encourage local
           | officials to resolve it. But it also massively poisoned the
           | well. How much you want to talk about the fraud issue is now
           | a proxy for how much you _don't_ want to talk about what
           | liberals see as the much larger issue of abuses by ICE/CBP.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/us/politics/ice-
           | somali-mi...
           | 
           | [2] https://x.com/KristiNoem/status/2005687345895645204
        
       | advisedwang wrote:
       | The reason that "the left" is rolling eyes at the fuss being made
       | over this fraud is:
       | 
       | 1. The fraud is in fact being investigated, people are being
       | charged and convicted. Despite this, rightwing media institutions
       | are acting as if fraud is being ignored and maybe even covered up
       | and encouraged because
       | 
       | 2. This is just another example of the decades long project by
       | those who have lots of money and don't want to see it go to takes
       | to paint social programs as a money-pipe from good hardworking
       | people to fraud and waste.
        
         | zahlman wrote:
         | > The fraud is in fact being investigated, people are being
         | charged and convicted.
         | 
         | And as explained in TFA, this is inefficient and ineffective
         | even in theory:
         | 
         | > So-called "pay-and-chase", where we put the burden on the
         | government to disallow payments for violations retrospectively,
         | has been enormously expensive and ineffective. Civil liability
         | bounces off of exists-only-to-defraud LLC. Criminal
         | prosecutions, among the most expensive kinds of intervention
         | the government is capable of doing short of kinetic war, result
         | in only a ~20% reduction in fraudulent behavior. Rearchitecting
         | the process to require prior authorization resulted in an
         | "immediate and permanent" 68% reduction.
         | 
         | > Despite this, rightwing media institutions are acting as if
         | fraud is being ignored and maybe even covered up and encouraged
         | because
         | 
         | Which is a reasonable characterization of the situation given
         | the scale of the fraud and the fact that it's still going on,
         | in such a blatant manner.
         | 
         | We're talking about total fraud on the order of $10b, and some
         | significant fraction of that money has presumably been sent
         | back to Somalia. We're talking here about amounts that would
         | represent a significant percentage _of Somalia 's entire GDP_
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalia#Economy).
         | 
         | > This is just another example of the decades long project by
         | those who have lots of money and don't want to see it go to
         | takes to paint social programs as a money-pipe from good
         | hardworking people to fraud and waste.
         | 
         | "The left" clearly has a vested interest in that _not
         | happening_ ; therefore, it is also in their interest to _take
         | appropriate actions against fraud_ as they might learn about
         | from the financial industry.
        
         | arduanika wrote:
         | Fair enough. But the reason that "the right" is not letting go
         | of the story is:
         | 
         | 1. The fraud was _not_ in fact being investigated seriously
         | enough until this kid, even while lacking the basics of
         | journalism as Patrick describes here, forced the issue.
         | 
         | 2. This is just another example of the decades long trend where
         | more and more bad patterns and outcomes can persist for far too
         | long because the normal checks are fended off with spurious
         | accusations of racism.
         | 
         | There's some variation on how "the right" would handle (2). The
         | center-right wants to shore up our culture of color-blindness
         | to patch these vulnerabilities. The far-right wants to do away
         | with egalitarianism altogether, and just go back to plain old
         | racism. If we can't figure out the former, we might well end up
         | with the latter.
         | 
         | (My reading is that Patrick falls squarely in the "center-
         | right" here, fwiw. Then again, it can be hard to decode his
         | exact subtext from under all the polite circumlocutions.
         | Reading his stuff is something of an acquired skill and/or
         | taste.)
        
       | kristjansson wrote:
       | On Shirely, and the reaction: there's a markedly different
       | valence to a fraud 'investigation' seeking to arrest, try,
       | convict, and imprison _fraudsters_ vs one seeking (through a thin
       | veil) to mar an entire community and bring about their violent
       | dispossession at the hands of unaccountable little green men. It
       | would not be an unreasonable person that strongly supports the
       | former and opposes the latter.
        
         | arduanika wrote:
         | Hmm, you completely lost me at "little green men". What/who is
         | this referring to? Extraterrestrials?
        
           | vharuck wrote:
           | The last time I heard about "little green men" (other than
           | ETs) was to describe obviously-but-unofficially Russian
           | soldiers who invaded Crimea in 2014 and claimed to be natives
           | who wanted Russia to annex the region.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Crimea
           | 
           | I guess it's now being used as pejorative against groups of
           | vaguely military style. Like the DHS agents conducting Metro
           | Surge.
        
           | buerkle wrote:
           | ICE agents cosplaying as an army
        
       | almosthere wrote:
       | He was able to show all the evidence David had. The evidence had
       | to be leaked out of the government of MN because it was silent
       | whistleblowers that had been turned down after doing internal
       | investigations. The government of MN may be complicit in all of
       | this. It could be that they were trying to be anti-racist, which
       | is why a lot of the fraud is specifically being performed by
       | Somalians. But it can also be pay for vote fraud - where the
       | leaders of the Somalian communities tell everyone who to vote
       | for, and they are doing this because Walz (or some other people)
       | are shielding the daycares from being shut down.
       | 
       | There is literally nothing wrong with stating this, we ought not
       | be political about this. There may also be conservatives being
       | elevated from Fraud as well, all of it should be routed.
       | 
       | At this point it definitely warrants deep investigations, not
       | more articles trying to destroy a 23 year old that went viral.
        
       | wredcoll wrote:
       | Look, this is a mostly reasonable, if slightly vague, article
       | about investigating fraud and mechanisms by which you do so.
       | 
       | What it lacks is any concrete suggestion as to what should
       | change, beyond some vague allusions that perhaps racial/ethnic
       | profiling should make a comeback.
       | 
       | The real problem here though is that the entire article ignores
       | the duty[1] the government owes its citizens.
       | 
       | It's "fine"[2] if stripe or visa or whoever flips a coin and if
       | it's tails they decide this person isn't allowed to be a customer
       | of their company. The company loses any profit they might have
       | made and life goes on.
       | 
       | It's considerably more problematic when the government refuses to
       | serve a citizen (or even worse, levies an accusation).
       | 
       | There's some famous quotes about how many innocent people are
       | appropriate to harm in the pursuit of the guilty but I'll leave
       | those up to the reader.
       | 
       | [1] duty feels like too weak of a word here. Obligation?
       | Requirement? The only reason the government even exists is to
       | benefit the citizens.
       | 
       | [2] it becomes rapidly less fine when the company essentially has
       | a monopoly over a system requires to participate in modern life,
       | but that's a different topic...
        
         | mlyle wrote:
         | > [2] it becomes rapidly less fine when the company essentially
         | has a monopoly over a system requires to participate in modern
         | life, but that's a different topic...
         | 
         | That's the real thing here. Concentrated power is scary--
         | whether it's the federal government, Visa/Mastercard, Google,
         | etc.
         | 
         | At least power concentrated under the control of a government
         | _might_ be held accountable to the people. With private,
         | concentrated power: fat chance.
        
           | wredcoll wrote:
           | I'm working on making it a thing, but my theory is that power
           | can't be destroyed, merely transferred, and in most cases I'd
           | rather have the power be vested in a democratic government.
        
             | mlyle wrote:
             | The best option is it being decentralized and diffuse and
             | operating through market mechanisms.
             | 
             | If that leads to bad outcomes, then government is a next
             | best choice.
             | 
             | (Of course, all the special cases, natural monopoly, etc
             | etc etc-- government has a role in addressing the bad
             | outcomes associated with those).
        
             | ejiblabahaba wrote:
             | Suppose an asteroid strikes the Earth and all human life
             | becomes extinct. What power, specifically, has been
             | transferred, and to where?
        
         | 650 wrote:
         | This article isn't vague at all. It references various sources,
         | and uses precise language (if you can recognize it) to convey
         | its message. Yes, innocent until proven guilty, but the fact
         | that the government has "lesser" educated Fraud analysts,
         | chooses to ask for reimbursement of overbilling, and many more
         | nuanced topics talked about in the article is not vague.
        
           | wredcoll wrote:
           | So what is supposed to change based on that? Pay more for
           | better fraud investigators? Accept a lower burden of proof
           | like stripe et al do? What's the take away here?
        
             | nickff wrote:
             | If you want a TLDR; style take-away, the last paragraph is
             | a good place to start:
             | 
             | > _" Responsible actors in civil society have a mandate to
             | aggressively detect and interdict fraud. If they do not,
             | they cede the field to irresponsible demagogues. They will
             | not be careful in their conclusions. They will not be
             | gentle in their proposals. They will not carefully weigh
             | consequences upon the innocent. But they will be telling a
             | truth that the great and the good are not.
             | 
             | The public will believe them, because the public believes
             | its lying eyes."_
        
               | wredcoll wrote:
               | Ahh, reminds me of the classic appeal.
               | 
               | "If you don't do <fascist thing> now, the real fascists
               | will take over!"
        
               | nickff wrote:
               | Is auditing state-subsidized service providers fascistic?
               | 
               | From this piece, it seems like the state auditor detected
               | some fraud, but there was little follow-up from either
               | the state or 'responsible journalists', so the
               | sensationalists came in with a (predictably) extreme
               | take, after which everyone started slinging mud. The
               | sensationalism could have been forestalled by better
               | auditing by the state, or journalism by large-scale
               | media. I am not sure what part of this is fascist.
        
               | wredcoll wrote:
               | Except the article does mention a whole bunch of people
               | who were investigated, arrested and convicted.
               | 
               | So again, now what? Are they supposed to hire more
               | investigators? Work harder? Require less evidence? What
               | part of the system is supposed to change and how?
        
               | em-bee wrote:
               | _to aggressively detect and interdict fraud_
               | 
               | is fascistic, because being aggressive hurts those that
               | want to do it right but are not trusted. an aspect of
               | fascism is to not trust its own people.
        
               | Redoubts wrote:
               | Posts like this make it clearer to me every day why Trump
               | won twice
        
           | sdwr wrote:
           | It's very indirect. The message is "the government is soft on
           | fraud, partially because of liberal values", but the author
           | does everything possible to not actually say it.
        
           | bootsmann wrote:
           | It references sources that don't claim what it says they do.
           | Notably the Minnesota report alleging 50% fraud does not say
           | that.
        
           | skybrian wrote:
           | McKenzie uses paraphrases to avoid writing certain keywords.
           | For example, he never writes "DOGE" or "Elon Musk" in this
           | article. Instead, he writes "We had a poorly-calibrated
           | federal initiative led by a charismatic tech entrepreneur."
           | 
           | If you've been reading the news then you can decode these
           | paraphrases, but they do make his articles significantly
           | harder to read.
           | 
           | I'm tempted to ask an LLM to replace them with more
           | straightforward references.
        
         | kmeisthax wrote:
         | I've called the phenomenon of private corporations refusing
         | service the "Maoists in the Risk Department" in the past.
         | 
         | The reason why risk departments all inevitably reinvent Maoism
         | is because the only effective enforcement mechanism they have
         | is to refuse service. Fraudsters are fundamentally illegible to
         | businesses of this size. And as the article stated, recidivism
         | rates in fraud are high enough that someone caught doing fraud
         | should never be given the time of day ever again. So the
         | easiest strategy is to pick some heuristics that catch
         | recidivist fraudsters and keep them a jealously guarded secret.
         | 
         | This calculus falls apart for the government. If someone rips
         | the government off, they can arrest them, compel the production
         | of documents from every third party they've interacted with,
         | and throw them in jail where they won't be able to rip anyone
         | else off for decades. Obviously, if we gave the Risk Department
         | Maoists these same permissions, we'd be living under tyranny.
         | 
         | Well, more tyranny than we already live under.
         | 
         | But at the same time, the fact that we have these legal powers
         | makes Risk Maoism largely _obsolete_. We don 't need to
         | repeatedly reinvestigate the same people for the same crime
         | "just in case".
        
           | wredcoll wrote:
           | My take is that we lack granular punishments.
           | 
           | Right now we have either some form of fine, and while this
           | can be incredibly painful, usually is not, then we go
           | straight to like multiyear prison sentences, with perhaps a
           | few suspended sentences in between there.
           | 
           | I dunno, maybe a world where "you did a small bank fraud so
           | now you have some kind of antifraud system attached to you"
           | is genuinely worse than the one we live in now, but the idea
           | of being able to target more specific aspects of someone
           | rather than just prison/not prison seems interesting.
           | 
           | I guess we have stuff like "not allowed to use a computer for
           | 5 years" (thanks hackers movie!), dunno how effective or
           | practical that is.
        
       | blurbleblurble wrote:
       | Take a look at the actual 2019 OLA report McKenzie cites. This
       | characterization is wrong in ways that matter.
       | 
       | The "50% fraud" claim? It comes from one investigator (Swanson)
       | using what the OLA explicitly calls "a higher level view, a view
       | that does not require the kind of proof needed in a criminal or
       | administrative proceeding." His methodology? If kids are poorly
       | supervised, "running from room to room while adult employees
       | spend hours in hallways chatting".... he counts the entire
       | payment as fraud. That's not "billing for phantom children" it's
       | "I don't like how this daycare is run."
       | 
       | The OLA's actual finding: "We did not find evidence to
       | substantiate the allegation that the level of CCAP fraud in
       | Minnesota is $100 million annually." Proven fraud over several
       | years was $5-6 million.
       | 
       | Terrorism? "We were unable to substantiate the allegation that
       | individuals in Minnesota sent CCAP fraud money to a foreign
       | country where a terrorist organization obtained and used the
       | money." They checked with the U.S. Attorney's Office.. none of
       | Minnesota's terrorism cases involved CCAP money.
       | 
       | McKenzie writes "beyond intellectually serious dispute" about
       | claims the primary source he cites explicitly could not
       | substantiate.
       | 
       | Meanwhile the president is posting videos of the Obamas as apes
       | and calling Somalis "garbage", having federal prosecutors
       | throwing out arbitrary $9 billion estimates in press conferences.
       | 
       | See for yourself:
       | https://www.auditor.leg.state.mn.us/sreview/ccap.pdf
        
         | patio11 wrote:
         | The Swanson memo memorializes the consensus of his
         | investigatory group and, put to question by OLA and
         | legislators, they stick with that story:
         | 
         | Page 14 of PDF:
         | 
         |  _[The OLA] did not find evidence to substantiate Stillman's
         | allegation that there is $100 million in CCAP fraud annually.
         | We did, on the other hand, find that the state's CCAP fraud
         | investigators generally agree with Stillman's opinions about
         | the level of CCAP fraud, as well as why it is so pervasive._
         | 
         | (Stillman is a line level investigator who gave a media
         | statement which was explosive. Swanson, who authored in the
         | internal memo, was his manager.)
         | 
         | I do mention that other officials only agreed to characterize
         | as fraud fraud which had resulted in convictions. We now, years
         | later, have nine figures just from the convictions (and guilty
         | pleas). These officials pointedly refuse to put any number on
         | fraud other than the number incident to convictions.
         | 
         | Moreover: you should be _very clearly correct_ if you accuse
         | someone of citing a document as making claims it does not say.
         | That is a serious accusation. BAM 's citation of this piece is
         | "the state's own investigators believed that, over the past
         | several years, greater than fifty percent of all reimbursements
         | to daycare centers were fraudulent." This is _absolutely true_
         | and _is in the report as claimed_.
        
           | refulgentis wrote:
           | I'm very amenable to the argument made in the blog post, but
           | the tone and sidecars attached made it feel quite off, like
           | if I looked into it, it'd turn out there was a rush to get
           | the main idea down so we could get the sidecars attached.
           | 
           | Spent about 30 minutes consulting the report you mention,
           | OP's post, and your reply, and there's clearly issues.
           | 
           | In the essay, you wrote that industrial-scale fraud is
           | "beyond intellectually serious dispute," cited the OLA
           | report, and presented the 50% figure as the finding that
           | "staggers the imagination." (this should have been a tell)
           | 
           | When challenged, you retreat to: "My citation that
           | investigators _believed_ this is absolutely true. "
           | 
           | Those are completely different claims. "An investigator
           | believed X" is not "X is beyond intellectually serious
           | dispute" -- especially when _the same report on the same
           | pages_ says:
           | 
           | - The OLA itself: "We did not find evidence to substantiate
           | the allegation" (p. 5)
           | 
           | - The DHS Inspector General: "I do not trust the allegation
           | that 50 percent of CCAP money is being paid fraudulently" (p.
           | 12)
           | 
           | - The investigators themselves had "varying levels of
           | certainty -- some thought it could be less, and some said
           | they did not have enough experience to have an opinion" (p.
           | 9)
           | 
           | - Swanson explicitly used "a view that does not require the
           | kind of proof needed in a criminal or administrative
           | proceeding" (p. 10), counting the _entire_ payment to any
           | center with poorly-supervised kids as  "fraud"
           | 
           | That's not "beyond intellectually serious dispute." It is,
           | literally, a documented dispute, inside the very report you
           | cite as settling the matter.
           | 
           | And "nine figures from convictions"? That's Feeding Our
           | Future, a _federal food nutrition program_. The OLA report is
           | about CCAP, a _state childcare program_. Proven CCAP fraud
           | remains at $5-6 million. You 're retroactively validating a
           | CCAP claim with convictions from a different program.
        
             | patio11 wrote:
             | FoF claimed to supply meals at the same physical locations
             | as CCAP and paid the same owners. As mentioned, one of nine
             | of the operators profiled, who was previously raided in an
             | investigation into alleged overbilling of CCAP, received
             | $1.5M from FoF. FoF is in fact not a federal nutrition
             | program but actually the name of a non-profit which
             | received grants from a federal nutrition program for
             | forwarding to third parties. CCAP is also funded by federal
             | block funding.
        
               | refulgentis wrote:
               | The operator overlap is real, and the correction that FoF
               | is a non-profit rather than a federal program is fair.
               | I'll take both points.
               | 
               | But look at what's happened across this exchange:
               | 
               | Essay: Industrial-scale CCAP fraud is "beyond
               | intellectually serious dispute." The evidence: the OLA
               | report shows investigators believed 50%+ of
               | reimbursements were fraudulent.
               | 
               | When challenged that the OLA explicitly could not
               | substantiate $100M and proven fraud was $5-6M: you
               | retreat to "my citation that investigators believed this
               | is absolutely true and is in the report as claimed."
               | 
               | When challenged that "investigators believed X" [?] "X is
               | beyond intellectually serious dispute" -- especially when
               | the same report documents the IG saying "I do not trust
               | the allegation," DHS leadership calling $100M "not
               | credible," investigators having "varying levels of
               | certainty" with some having "not enough experience to
               | have an opinion," and the OLA itself saying "we cannot
               | offer a reliable estimate": you pivot to FoF operator
               | overlap.
               | 
               | You still haven't addressed the actual critique. The
               | overlap proves that some fraudsters work across programs.
               | Not disputed, not surprising, and consistent with your
               | essay's point about fraud lifecycles. What it doesn't do
               | is retroactively substantiate Swanson's 50% CCAP figure.
               | His methodology, spelled out in the very email the OLA
               | appended, counted _all_ payments to any center where
               | children were poorly supervised as 100% fraudulent, a
               | standard he himself distinguished from  "the kind of
               | proof needed in a criminal or administrative proceeding."
               | FoF fraud was fabricating meal claims for meals never
               | served. CCAP fraud is billing for children not present.
               | Different programs, different billing mechanisms,
               | different oversight bodies (MDE vs. DHS), different
               | proven scales by orders of magnitude. That some of the
               | same people ran both doesn't collapse the distinction.
               | 
               | "CCAP is also funded by federal block funding" seems
               | designed to blur a line that matters. Many programs are
               | federally funded. That doesn't make convictions in one
               | program evidence of the fraud rate in another.
               | 
               | Here's what's frustrating: I think the essay's core
               | argument is genuinely strong, and it doesn't need the
               | overclaim. The OLA report is already damning on its own
               | honest terms: proven fraud of $5-6M in a program with
               | paper sign-in sheets prosecutors called "almost comical,"
               | no electronic attendance verification, 60-day billing
               | windows, a certification statement _removed_ from billing
               | forms in 2013, and the investigators themselves saying
               | centers  "open faster than they can close the existing
               | ones down." The report makes it clear fraud was likely
               | substantially higher than proven convictions. That's
               | already a devastating indictment of program oversight.
               | Your argument about base rates, weak controls, and
               | Shirley fishing in a troubled pond all follows from
               | _that_ , from the report as it actually reads.
               | 
               | But "likely substantially higher than $5-6M, in a program
               | with terrible controls" is a very different claim than
               | "50%+ fraud, beyond intellectually serious dispute." Your
               | essay presents the latter. The report supports the
               | former. And the gap matters, because the essay is being
               | read right now, today. in a context where the president
               | is calling Somalis "garbage," prosecutors are throwing
               | out $9 billion estimates in press conferences, and five
               | states just had billions in child care funding frozen.
               | Overstating what the evidence supports isn't a minor
               | rhetorical choice in that environment. It's exactly the
               | kind of epistemic failure the essay warns about when it
               | talks about "irresponsible demagogues" filling the
               | vacuum.
        
               | patio11 wrote:
               | The thing which is beyond intellectually serious dispute
               | is industrial-scaled fraud.
               | 
               | You keep wanting to make me "own" the CCAP's estimate. I
               | will not reciprocally try to make you "own" $5 million,
               | because I am charitable and because history has been
               | unkind to the officials who made it.
               | 
               | I _do_ ask you to own:  "Minnesota HAS NOT suffered
               | industrial-scale fraud across several social programs."
               | Otherwise this is judging a high school debate
               | competition, and I've had better.
        
           | cynicalkane wrote:
           | OP didn't claim you of misrepresenting facts in the document
           | directly; OP claimed you of grossly mischaracterizing those
           | facts in order to support claims the document does not
           | support. The document is cited as supporting massive fraud
           | "beyond intellectually serious dispute" while the scale of
           | the fraud is disputed in the cited document.
           | 
           | But, on the other hand, I suppose intellectually serious
           | dispute requires both sides to be intellectually serious. One
           | good step in that direction would be to arrange one's
           | citations such that they are supporting the claims you are
           | citing them for.
           | 
           | I will also remark, as others have, that it's odd to make a
           | big deal about this particular fraud when there's a lot more
           | fraud happening a lot more obviously in a lot more of the
           | nation. This is not to question Minnesota officials who are,
           | rightly and appropriately, investigating suspected fraud in
           | their zone of investigation; but it is worth questioning
           | voices who have, apropos of nothing I can discern, made
           | decisions about what's important to talk about and what
           | isn't, and further made decisions to misrepresent allegations
           | in alignment with people who very aggressively lie for evil
           | reasons. As others have pointed out, the essay's core is
           | seemingly cromulent, and it doesn't need you to do that.
        
             | patio11 wrote:
             | <LLC voice> We have reviewed your feedback on our editorial
             | choices, and are comfortable that we have characterized the
             | claims in the report accurately. We stand by "Minnesota has
             | suffered a decade-long campaign of industrial-scale fraud
             | against several social programs. This is beyond
             | intellectually serious dispute." This is editorial
             | analysis, informed--as is stated in the plain text--by the
             | experience of several programs. Feeding our Future, for
             | example, is cited in the piece, with analysis. It has
             | resulted in dozens of convictions and guilty pleas, and
             | federal prosecutors characterize it as having defrauded the
             | public of nine figures.
             | 
             | You are welcome to your own opinion as to what could
             | motivate a publication which routinely writes about fraud
             | and finance to write about fraud and finance. Past issues
             | you may enjoy include a year-long investigation into a
             | single incident of fraud in NYC, a topological look at the
             | fraud supply chain in credit cards, discussions of how the
             | FTX fraud was uniquely enabled by their partner bank
             | failing to properly configure their AML engine, and
             | similar. </LLC voice>
        
               | zahlman wrote:
               | Seriously, it's beyond amazing how much mud this thread
               | has been flinging at you. If the analysis you've offered
               | is somehow not above board, it seems impossible to point
               | out the clear facts of the matter in a way that nobody
               | would object to.
        
       | kristjansson wrote:
       | > Responsible actors in civil society have a mandate to
       | aggressively detect and interdict fraud. If they do not, they
       | cede the field to irresponsible demagogues. They will not be
       | careful in their conclusions. They will not be gentle in their
       | proposals. They will not carefully weigh consequences upon the
       | innocent. But they will be telling a truth that the great and the
       | good are not.
       | 
       | Leaving this to the conclusion does the piece a disservice. One
       | can quibble (and it would be good to here) the extent to which
       | the government isn't pursuing the sorts of fraud discussed, but
       | this as a thesis makes clearer the argument throughout for
       | earlier and more aggressive pursuit.
        
       | amadeuspagel wrote:
       | Instead of giving parents vouchers, that they then use at a
       | fraudulent daycare, in exchange for a fake job, while they take
       | care of their children at home, parents should just get money, so
       | that they can stay home taking care of their children if they
       | prefer that.
        
         | Muromec wrote:
         | Or get a proper kindergarten run by the government. Radical
         | idea, I know
        
           | sakopov wrote:
           | I never understood why we have public schools but not public
           | kindergartens.
        
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