[HN Gopher] Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
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       Waymo seeking about $16B near $110B valuation
        
       Author : JumpCrisscross
       Score  : 177 points
       Date   : 2026-02-02 15:08 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | mankyd wrote:
       | https://archive.is/asQ2x
        
       | fnord77 wrote:
       | > The parent company would provide about $13 billion to the
       | robotaxi firm, while the rest would come from others, including
       | new investors ...
       | 
       | No IPO for us little people
        
         | kolbe wrote:
         | What would you add to the company as an investor?
        
           | WarmWash wrote:
           | Probably money
        
         | lotsofpulp wrote:
         | Alphabet is already a publicly listed company. Just buy more
         | Alphabet shares if you want to invest in Waymo.
        
       | thundergolfer wrote:
       | I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but
       | significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic?
       | 
       | Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump
       | from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber
       | 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get
       | enshittified.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | This is Google you're talking about. They're an ads+AI company.
         | They'll figure out a way to enshittify, even if it's not
         | obvious.
        
         | crazygringo wrote:
         | Google has a $4.1T market cap.
         | 
         | So a $110B valuation is not currently _that_ significant in
         | terms of exposure. It 's only 2.7% of it overall.
        
           | thundergolfer wrote:
           | Fair, though my guess is that the growth rate of Waymo's
           | market cap will far exceed Google's as Waymo scales. I wish I
           | could invest in Waymo, so I'll take that 2.7% exposure.
        
         | doctoboggan wrote:
         | > I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.
         | 
         | Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my
         | head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list.
         | * Ads in vehicle        * Adjust route so you see partner
         | companies or billboards       * Offering alternative
         | destinations (I see you are going to Burger King, would you
         | rather go to our partner McDonalds?)       * Listening to
         | conversations in car       * Selling ride data.
        
           | dotBen wrote:
           | They already will be selling your ride data and there is no
           | way they could monitor conversations in the car for
           | commercial purposes (at least in Western countries).
           | 
           | Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc.
           | definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic
           | comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per
           | session/user settings just like most of us have a paid
           | Spotify account and never see advertising and those who don't
           | get a very different monetized experience.
           | 
           | What is exciting about monetization like this is the
           | possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If
           | my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my
           | loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | > and there is no way they could monitor conversations in
             | the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western
             | countries).
             | 
             | Why not? You can consent to having your audio recorded.
             | They can even offer a higher "private" price and a lower
             | "ad supported" price. I write "private" because I assume
             | the microphones will always be listening no matter which
             | price you pay.
        
               | dotBen wrote:
               | I guess that's semantics. If you _opt in_ then yes I
               | guess they could do anything. I think the point was that
               | enshitification would occur if they forced you to do
               | that.
               | 
               | You could opt in to have blood or plasma taken on every
               | ride if you so wanted I guess.
        
               | tantalor wrote:
               | Rough figures:
               | 
               | As a plasma donor you can earn $30-$70 per session for
               | 800 ml. Let's call it $50. A session takes about 90
               | minutes, or 533 ml/hour, and you make $33/hour
               | 
               | Waymo charges $0.50 - $1.00 per mile. Let's use the high
               | end.
               | 
               | To break even, your Waymo will need to consume <
               | $33/hour, or < 33 mph. That's not bad!
               | 
               | If you go any faster, you won't be able to extract enough
               | plasma in the same amount of time.
        
             | tapoxi wrote:
             | Couldn't Uber do that today?
        
               | dotBen wrote:
               | /cries into my Uber shares and the deletion of the Uber
               | ATG repos when the parts were sold to Aurora.
        
             | lokar wrote:
             | https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/google-voice-assistant-
             | laws...
        
             | notyourwork wrote:
             | You really think ads in vehicle are not coming? You're
             | being naive if you think that.
             | 
             | Also, cheap rides cut into stocks margins. That won't fly
             | by investors either. These companies are not charities.
             | They are in the business of maximizing profits. We lost
             | "don't be evil" over a decade ago.
        
               | tantalor wrote:
               | We already have ads in vehicles.
               | 
               | If you fly United, the in-flight entertainment has pre-
               | roll ads.
               | 
               | I can't say how well that model translates to car rides.
        
               | oefrha wrote:
               | I see you haven't seen or heard of cabs' in-car ad
               | screens we've had for close to two decades, if you have
               | to point to airplanes as an example.
        
               | tantalor wrote:
               | I haven't been in a cab in 2 decades, so that tracks.
        
             | GuinansEyebrows wrote:
             | > there is no way they could monitor conversations in the
             | car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries)
             | 
             | people used to feel that way about search queries, email
             | (gmail) and IP laws (LLM training).
             | 
             | > What is exciting about monetization like this is the
             | possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If
             | my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my
             | loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
             | 
             | this won't happen. alphabet will collect on both ends.
        
             | crazygringo wrote:
             | > _If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return
             | for my loyalty, I 'm quite happy to take that._
             | 
             | That's actually a _really_ interesting angle. The same way
             | businesses often provide free parking now... what if they
             | start providing free self-driving round trips?
             | 
             | E.g. spend $75 or more at Whole Foods, and get free round-
             | trip up to 20 miles or something. Especially for bulky
             | items like groceries where a car makes a big difference, I
             | can totally see that becoming standard. Home Depot too.
             | Plus entertainment like amusement parks, movie theaters,
             | spas...
        
               | dotBen wrote:
               | It makes particular sense for vertically integrated
               | conglomerates like Amazon-Whole Foods which owns Zoox.
               | 
               | I buy Whole Foods French fries shipped to the store via
               | Amazon logistics and purchase those at Amazon owned Whole
               | Foods, at a discount via my Prime membership on my Amazon
               | credit card which is processed on AWS infrastructure and
               | I ride home on an Amazon owned Zoox that also runs on AWS
               | infrastructure.
               | 
               | Amazon owns so much of the profit margin across that
               | stack that they can afford to give rides away for
               | example.
        
             | jafo1989 wrote:
             | > there is no way they could monitor conversations in the
             | car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries)
             | 
             | Oh, you'll agree to that when you accept the terms of
             | service.
             | 
             | Can't wait for the "This ride with ads: $17. Ad free: $26"
             | choice.
        
           | jezzamon wrote:
           | There's all that, but you can just look at Uber for the
           | classic model of how a company like this enshittifies, which
           | is:
           | 
           | - offer a service well below market rate, gain dependent
           | customers
           | 
           | - crank up the price
           | 
           | No need to do much of the other stuff
        
             | sib wrote:
             | Don't forget:
             | 
             | * Stop doing any meaningful in-person inspection of the
             | vehicle to ensure that it is in good condition before
             | joining the network
             | 
             | * Stop requiring cars to be <= 4 years old
             | 
             | * (Seemingly) stop requiring drivers to maintain trunk
             | space free for passengers' luggage
        
           | everforward wrote:
           | The ads will be awful, because you're effectively captive.
           | You only control the volume and screen if they let you.
        
             | philipwhiuk wrote:
             | Finally, a justification for owning an Apple Vision Pro.
        
           | crazygringo wrote:
           | Ads in vehicles are a sure thing. Also a sure thing you'll be
           | able to pay a little extra to turn them off, which is
           | basically just the full price of the trip unsubsidized by
           | ads.
           | 
           | It'll be up to you, just like whether you want your Netflix
           | cheaper with ads, or more expensive but without.
           | 
           | I see that choice as a good thing.
           | 
           | The rest of your suggestions are incredibly unlikely. Google
           | doesn't even scan your Gmail anymore, you think they're going
           | to create a privacy scandal by listening to your
           | conversations? And they certainly don't sell your Maps
           | timeline which is far more valuable than just a few car
           | trips, so why on earth would they do that with Waymo? Nor
           | does Google Maps offer to send you to Burger King when you
           | hit directions for McDonald's. And taking a longer route that
           | wastes time, battery and money, on the chance you'll be
           | looking out the window to see a billboard rather than looking
           | at your phone, doesn't make sense at all.
        
         | ai-x wrote:
         | Google's marketcap moves by Waymo's entire marketcap in a
         | single day.
        
         | pandemic_region wrote:
         | "Please watch these ads before we start the ride. Any attempt
         | to not look at the ads by looking away from the screen or
         | closing your eyes will automatically cancel the ride."
        
           | floxy wrote:
           | https://external-
           | content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ft...
        
         | g947o wrote:
         | > I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.
         | 
         | Raise the price?
        
           | mbb70 wrote:
           | Enshittification is a technique to make more money _without_
           | raising the price by simply making the product worse.
           | 
           | Self-driving taxis have a high floor for 'making the product
           | worse' because the car fundamentally has to drive itself.
        
             | sowbug wrote:
             | It appears that enshittification has joined exponential and
             | literally as words that used to mean specific things but
             | are now just generic intensifiers.
        
         | ronnier wrote:
         | > but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified
         | 
         | My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law
         | makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or
         | the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a
         | profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will
         | disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population
         | and will put them out of work.
        
           | estearum wrote:
           | No they won't. The product is so outrageously superior on
           | every dimension to the status quo that municipalities will
           | figure out whatever they need to in order to accommodate
           | them.
           | 
           | You think the folks on City Council enjoy chauffeuring their
           | own children around and will block a solution to it?
        
             | ronnier wrote:
             | Yes. It's already happening
             | 
             | https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_
             | m...
        
               | thinkmassive wrote:
               | In Virginia too, proposed in HB1124:
               | 
               | > The bill prohibits the use of autonomous vehicles as
               | motor carriers of passengers or property without a human
               | operator who (i) meets any state and federal
               | qualifications for the operation of an autonomous
               | vehicle; (ii) is physically present in such autonomous
               | vehicle; and (iii) has the ability to monitor the
               | performance of such vehicle and intervene in the
               | operation of such vehicle, including operating such
               | vehicle without the use of the automated driving system
               | and stopping and turning off such vehicle if necessary.
               | 
               | https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB1124
        
               | tanseydavid wrote:
               | If they prohibit autonomous vehicles, eventually their
               | constituencies will be screaming for it.
               | 
               | It seems that many people, after trying out the service
               | for themselves first hand, in a locale that has it
               | available today, are very eager to have the service
               | available to them in their home locale.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Maybe, although stupid laws can become heavily entrenched
               | and surprisingly hard to change. Like in New Jersey I
               | think you still can't pump your own gas, and some idiots
               | actually defend that crazy policy for the sake of saving
               | jobs.
        
               | estearum wrote:
               | I didn't say people _won 't try_. Obviously there will be
               | resistance. I am saying that the resistance will not be
               | successful for any significant amount of time for any
               | significant jurisdiction.
        
             | ativzzz wrote:
             | Uber and Lyft operated partially or outright illegally in
             | many places while negotiating with governments. They also
             | had a far superior product. Just like they fought the
             | existing taxi companies, Waymo will have to fight against
             | Uber and Lyft's lawyers, who are probably better funded and
             | have learned to become better entrenched in governments.
        
               | qaq wrote:
               | Lyft + Uber market cap is under 200B Alphabet 4T+ I think
               | they will manage
        
               | estearum wrote:
               | Uber and Lyft are goners, their customers don't care
               | about them and will take Waymos the second they're
               | available.
               | 
               | Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they
               | successfully adopt self-driving.
        
               | tanseydavid wrote:
               | > Uber and Lyft will survive exactly to the extent they
               | successfully adopt self-driving.
               | 
               | I think this is correct and I want to point out something
               | that I have not seen mentioned elsewhere in the thread.
               | 
               | If and when Uber/Lyft move heavily in this direction, the
               | cost/operational benefits of having their "fleet" of
               | vehicles be privately owned-vehicles will almost
               | certainly disappear.
        
               | ativzzz wrote:
               | What's everyone's hate with uber and lyft rides? Over the
               | past 10 years, I've had maybe one ride that was a 1/5.
               | Most drivers either don't talk or are actually very
               | pleasant conversations
               | 
               | I will take whichever one is cheaper. Just like now I
               | open up both uber and lyft to see which costs less, I'll
               | open up waymo as well
        
               | estearum wrote:
               | Have you taken a Waymo?
               | 
               | I don't hate Uber/Lyft (though many in NYC are
               | legitimately horrible, just like taxis)
               | 
               | Waymo is simply an order of magnitude better than the
               | best Uber ride I've ever had
        
               | ativzzz wrote:
               | I've had some great conversations with uber drivers. Most
               | don't talk, but I've had some memorable ones for sure.
        
               | estearum wrote:
               | Sure, yeah, same here. Waymo is still an order of
               | magnitude better.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | I travel a fair amount, and Uber and Lyft service quality
               | has become noticeably worse in the last few years. The
               | apps lie to you about pickup times. Drivers will accept a
               | ride but then never actually head towards your location.
               | A significant fraction of the vehicles are showing some
               | sort of warning light on the dashboard: check engine,
               | overdue maintenance, low tire pressure, etc.
        
             | WarmWash wrote:
             | Wait till you see the showdown that's building up in NYC.
             | 
             | Mamdani, the new nyc mayor, has been a long time friend and
             | advocate for NYC taxi workers alliance. He even
             | participated in a hunger strike with them in 2021.
             | 
             | Waymo is right now starting the wheels turning on getting
             | NYC permits, but taxi workers have already made their
             | (obvious) stance clear: No Waymos.
        
               | estearum wrote:
               | Yeah, but they will lose. Certainly in the long run (10
               | year horizon, almost certainly in the medium term (5 year
               | horizon), and very likely even in the short term under
               | the auspices of "limited experiments" while constituents
               | and stakeholders get hooked.
        
               | Fricken wrote:
               | The NY Governor's office has always been pro-SDC's, the
               | Mayor's office has always been against them.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to
           | ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible
           | to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen_
           | 
           | No they won't. And Waymo's playbook would be Uber's if they
           | did: preempt at the state and federal levels.
        
           | nayuki wrote:
           | This video is very apt:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tjZchYXMmA Australian
           | Taxpayers' Alliance - "ALL Obsolete Industries Deserve The
           | Taxi Bailout!" (1m38s) [2015-12-13]
        
         | re-thc wrote:
         | > I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but
         | significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic?
         | 
         | You also get some Starlink.
        
         | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
         | The obvious way such services enshittify is to become a
         | monopoly by pushing everyone else out, then cranking up the
         | prices (and lowering quality, e.g. by not cleaning the
         | vehicles, longer wait times for better utilization, etc.)
        
       | pm90 wrote:
       | Why does Google need outside investors? Is it a play to get a
       | "serious" valuation since it would be vetted by outside parties?
       | 
       | I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn't just IPO, or raise 100%
       | private raise by Google.
        
         | andsoitis wrote:
         | Companies raise money for big projects all the time. From
         | issuing debt, to issuing equity.
        
           | kolbe wrote:
           | He's talking specifically about Waymo's situation. Alplabet,
           | a company who has $75bn of FCF, owns 80% of Waymo. A $16bn
           | capital injection is meaningless to Alphabet, so he's
           | wondering why they're going through the trouble.
           | 
           | He raises a good point, and the answer is likely that they
           | can run into legal issues by either under or overvaluing the
           | company in a capital raise where they're the controlling
           | shareholder, then the IRS or existing investors have grounds
           | for a lawsuit (or audit). They likely just want to bring the
           | capital raise out in the open to get a fair market value, and
           | then they will be 90% of the capital in the raise.
        
         | dotBen wrote:
         | It's a very capital intensive operation given the amount of
         | vehicles that need to be carried on the balance sheet.
         | 
         | There are many reasons why a conglomerate like Alphabet doesn't
         | want to hold all of that directly on the balance sheet, which
         | is why Waymo is run as a subsidiary with its own sources of
         | capital.
         | 
         | When I was at Uber 10 plus years ago and we were ideating
         | autonomous vehicles. The general consensus was that we would
         | run the technology platform and private equity would own fleets
         | of cars built and operated to our specification.
         | 
         | Waymo has concluded either we are too early in the journey to
         | decouple the tight vertical integration or they want to go very
         | big and own all of the capital expenditure for what will
         | presumably be a global rollout ultimately.
         | 
         | For anyone like me with a finance and technology crossover
         | interest I actually think this is as interesting, maybe more
         | interesting, than the private equity play around data centers
         | at the moment because all of that is constrained against chip
         | delivery and power constraints.
        
           | kolbe wrote:
           | Alphabet is providing $13bn of the $16bn raise. What are you
           | talking about? Do you really think that $3bn matters in the
           | slightest?
        
             | dotBen wrote:
             | What I'm talking about is that is still considered an
             | external capital raise for the purpose of the markets and
             | where those assets sit on the balance sheet.
             | 
             | Also, keep in mind the Alphabet doesn't fully own Waymo. I
             | don't know the percentage ownership of hand, but that also
             | feels like it's probably a prorated investment based on
             | ownership so Alphabet doesn't reduce its voting control.
             | 
             | That's what I'm talking about.
        
             | spyckie2 wrote:
             | This is why you are not the finance guy.
             | 
             | My finance people care about the cents, a ROI of 7% is
             | average but at 8.5% and now you are a world class asset of
             | that inventory type. That's sometimes the difference of a
             | few hundred k out of 20m but they would not take the deal
             | if it is slightly over due to their risk appetite.
             | 
             | The 3b external either matters a ton to fit their risk
             | models OR they are doing a favor to an outside party.
             | Probably a bit of both.
        
               | dotBen wrote:
               | Well, given that it is an equity sale, split still feels
               | like it is the prorated amount so that alphabet continues
               | to own its percentage - not more not less.
               | 
               | Obviously you're entitled to your view, but I don't think
               | it's that kind of finance model right now - it's far too
               | speculative and the upside too unknown to be adjusting
               | for small amounts on risk models.
        
             | infecto wrote:
             | Yes and what matters the most is what Waymo has been
             | signaling for years. They don't want the capex (owning and
             | running the physical cars). I don't know the intent of this
             | raise but you have to realize companies may have a good
             | asset but they don't want to own it 100% for a multitude of
             | reasons. Some of them could be as simple as wanting to get
             | other investors involved and comfortable with the asset to
             | maybe take on larger roles in future rounds. Or in this
             | case potentially running the car part of the business.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | By investing $13B of the $16B they're signalling they do
               | want the capex, at least for now.
        
               | infecto wrote:
               | If they truly wanted the capex, this would not be a mixed
               | round A fully internal recap would have been simpler. The
               | presence of outside capital, even minority, is consistent
               | with a gradual transition toward shared ownership, asset
               | light structures, or operator partners.
               | 
               | They have made many comments over the years about this
               | too.
        
             | throwmeaway820 wrote:
             | three billion here, three billion there, pretty soon it
             | begins to add up to real money
        
           | loeg wrote:
           | > The general consensus was that we would run the technology
           | platform and private equity would own fleets of cars built
           | and operated to our specification.
           | 
           | Private equity, or private capital (debt investors)? Although
           | I guess PC was less of a thing 10 years ago.
        
           | alooPotato wrote:
           | > There are many reasons why a conglomerate like Alphabet
           | doesn't want to hold all of that directly on the balance
           | sheet
           | 
           | Can you tell us those reasons? I think this is basically
           | _the_ question.
        
             | BoorishBears wrote:
             | I disagree with their reasoning and would say it's more for
             | strategic benefits.
             | 
             | Giving firms that they get along well with (like Sequoia)
             | allocation feels like a mix between a favor and possibly a
             | way to signal that the valuation has some external buy-in
             | too.
        
             | UebVar wrote:
             | "Tech" was incredible light on CapExp compared with
             | everything else (until AI hit, that is). That is what
             | allowed its explosive growth. On the one hand alphabet is
             | not used to that. On the other hand it is turning into a
             | more normal business with more CapExp, and like other more
             | "normal" business it uses more external investment. As a
             | general rule of thumb: The more capex, the more leverage;
             | for example commodity extraction, infrastructure or power
             | generation are very capex heavy, and heavily leveraged.
        
         | 46493168 wrote:
         | Why would you bet your own money when you could bet someone
         | else's?
        
           | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
           | If you are betting on a winner why split with others?
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | risk management. Even sure thing bets lose money once in a
             | while, so it is a good idea to spread the risk of that
             | around.
        
             | 46493168 wrote:
             | If you know the winner, it's not gambling. Self-driving
             | cars are still a gamble.
        
           | minwcnt5 wrote:
           | Alphabet is only giving up around a 3% stake. They continue
           | to own most of it, and mostly bet their own money.
        
         | re-thc wrote:
         | > Why does Google need outside investors?
         | 
         | i.e. why should I use my money if I can use someone elses'?
        
           | lurk2 wrote:
           | If you use someone else's money you have to pay him back with
           | interest or equity.
        
             | re-thc wrote:
             | > you have to pay him back with interest or equity
             | 
             | That's the price for infinite scaling. If a business can't
             | make more than that it should be shut down.
             | 
             | i.e. do you want to make 25% of 1 billion or 5% of 1000
             | billion?
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | The point the great-grandparent is making is that Google
               | could comfortably finance the project itself and make
               | 100% of the upside, not 25% or 5%.
        
               | re-thc wrote:
               | And the point here is borrowing more money increases
               | available funds for bigger rewards. Google can fund 1
               | Waymo but not an infinite amount of them.
        
         | kolbe wrote:
         | Dude. I'm sorry for all the "oTheR pEEPles moNeYs" responses
         | you're getting. Hacker News used to have informed and
         | intelligent users.
        
           | notyourwork wrote:
           | This reply also falls in the category. It's easier and faster
           | to downvote poor responses and move on.
        
             | kolbe wrote:
             | Not when there's three like-minded accounts upvoting each
             | other.
        
             | irl_zebra wrote:
             | I take that reply as a "bar raiser" that HN commenters
             | should be better, not as a low quality/effort reply.
        
         | perfmode wrote:
         | a deliberate strategy to establish market-validated pricing,
         | prepare for eventual independence, and impose governance
         | discipline on what has been a protected moonshot project. The
         | move signals that Alphabet is transforming Waymo from an "Other
         | Bets" science experiment into a standalone asset with credible
         | external valuation--likely positioning for an IPO within 2-4
         | years once profitability arrives.
        
           | philipallstar wrote:
           | I'm not sure how useful this pricing is for the future, as
           | waymo is currently operating on semi-infinite Google money.
           | If that stops, no doubt the price would change too.
        
             | perfmode wrote:
             | The counterargument would be that the external investors
             | (Sequoia, Andreessen, Fidelity, etc.) presumably priced in
             | this exact risk when they agreed to pay $110B. They're not
             | naive about Alphabet's role as backstop. The question is
             | whether they believe the "semi-infinite money" assumption
             | is durable enough over their investment horizon.
        
         | ra7 wrote:
         | Yes, it provides external validation for the valuation.
         | Otherwise, Alphabet can simply "self value" Waymo at a funny
         | amount like $1T.
         | 
         | There's also a strategic partnership angle in these rounds. For
         | example, Magna and Autonation were early investors in Waymo.
         | Magna operates Waymo's factory in Arizona to upfit their
         | vehicles with sensors, Autonation (the huge dealership/service
         | network) is the maintenance partner.
         | 
         | In general, the Alphabet playbook is that projects "graduate"
         | out of Google X, and are expected to operate as a standalone
         | company, including being responsible for raising funds.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _why Waymo doesn't just IPO, or raise 100% private raise by
         | Google_
         | 
         | This lets them validate their valuation and build a base of
         | investors who could play a bigger role in writing chequew in
         | the future. When IPO comes, those factors make the sell
         | simpler.
        
         | doctorpangloss wrote:
         | a little kid is inevitably going to get killed by a waymo.
         | 
         | institutional finance is america's most powerful lobbyist. in
         | the sense of the fund managers, the little RIAs, the grandmas
         | holding SPY. they ARE the voters.
         | 
         | so to me, aside from making money, making money this way, for a
         | lot of people, protects them from the political grandstanding
         | and their fast demise in their absence.
        
           | cucumber3732842 wrote:
           | >institutional finance is america's most powerful lobbyist.
           | in the sense of the fund managers, the little RIAs, the
           | grandmas holding SPY. they ARE the voters.
           | 
           | This. They're letting wall street in on it so wall street
           | goes to bat for it. It's the big boy version of how some
           | widget manufacturer will revise a product to necessitate or
           | cut out a trade lobby depending on whether they want those
           | people to go to bat for it, or make all the people who don't
           | wanna pay rent to those people go to bat for it.
        
           | glitchc wrote:
           | Unfortunate but true. Just as true as human drivers doing the
           | same. No technical system guarantees a failure rate of zero.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | They need at least one fatality before you can start going
           | down that slope, but probably true comparing how many kids
           | get killed by human drivers, Waymo can't be so safe as to
           | avoid these incidents if they scale up in numbers.
        
           | Sohcahtoa82 wrote:
           | > a little kid is inevitably going to get killed by a waymo.
           | 
           | And it will be 100% the kids fault, but the headlines will
           | look terrible.
           | 
           | Kids can be naive and reckless, and the result makes them
           | look downright suicidal with the things they do. They will
           | dart into traffic, and even if the Waymo has single-digit
           | millisecond reaction times, people will still blame the
           | Waymo.
        
         | stackghost wrote:
         | >I guess Im questioning why Waymo doesn't just IPO, or raise
         | 100% private raise by Google.
         | 
         | Why not 100% internal funding, not sure, but the reason why
         | companies don't always IPO is because taking on debt is more
         | efficient (i.e. it's cheaper in terms of cost of capital) than
         | equity, because of the "tax shield" effect, debt can be raised
         | in a non dilutive manner, and a few other (less important)
         | game-theoretic reasons.
        
         | josefx wrote:
         | Money from Google internally might be subject to internal power
         | dynamics and come with strings attached. Having reliable
         | outside funding from people who don't get a say in things might
         | be a better alternative for a project that doesn't want to end
         | up as Stadia 2.0 .
        
           | minwcnt5 wrote:
           | I think some of the external investors have board seats, so
           | the outside people do get a (small) say in things. And to
           | your point, that's probably also a good thing for avoiding
           | another Stadia mistake.
        
           | echelon wrote:
           | Google Genie would have disrupted Stadia anyway, fwiw.
        
         | buellerbueller wrote:
         | Why risk your own money, when you can risk others'?
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | Rich people and big companies buy insurance too.
        
         | plantain wrote:
         | I also wonder this - my best theory is getting institutional
         | buy-in from all corners will help with the regulation going
         | forward.
        
         | tsycho wrote:
         | >> or raise 100% private by Google?
         | 
         | Isn't that what they are kinda doing? 13bn out of the 16bn is
         | coming from Google itself.
         | 
         | I think the reason they are taking 3bn from outside high-
         | profile investors is to validate the valuation, for legal or
         | accounting reasons.
        
       | b33j0r wrote:
       | Just don't take one if another one is operating nearby. If they
       | see another waymo, having passed the insecure emotional Turing
       | test, they get self-conscious and wander the neighborhood
       | backstreets until the other one has dropped off its passengers.
       | 
       | (Just experienced this multiple times in Phoenix. It's impressive
       | at navigating and braking, but not rational planning or
       | flocking.)
        
         | Kique wrote:
         | This has not been my experience at all and I take Waymos pretty
         | frequently, especially at popular areas like concerts or
         | airports you'll see a bunch of them dropping off/picking up
         | people without issues.
        
       | simianwords wrote:
       | why is Tesla much higher? I thought Tesla's market cap was
       | because of the self driving feature.
        
         | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
         | The only semi rational thing that could explain it is the
         | robots.
        
           | sorenjan wrote:
           | It's always the next big thing. It used to be self driving,
           | now it's AI and robots.
        
           | everforward wrote:
           | I don't even think that's rational, but it may be what's
           | propping them up.
           | 
           | Last earnings call Musk said Optimus wasn't doing "meaningful
           | work" at Tesla and as far as I'm aware they haven't done
           | meaningful work anywhere. I think they're behind the curve
           | there. Figure AI recently finished an apparently successful
           | feasibility trial of their humanoid robots with BMW and
           | Boston Dynamics has a deal with Hyundai for their Atlas
           | humanoid robots.
           | 
           | I'm not even convinced humanoid robots are going to pan out
           | in general. They only really make sense in a scenario where
           | you're back porting robotics to factories built for humans.
           | That has value but feels temporary; factories designed to be
           | robotic feel like the future, and there's no need for them to
           | do the job the same way a human would.
        
             | philipwhiuk wrote:
             | > Boston Dynamics has a deal with Hyundai for their Atlas
             | humanoid robots
             | 
             | Slightly depressing that we're back to replacing the big
             | industrial robots rather than new markets.
        
               | everforward wrote:
               | I _think_ these are meant to replace humans working
               | alongside the industrial robots rather than the big
               | industrial robots themselves. I don't work in
               | manufacturing though, and the press releases are too
               | buzzword-y for me to grasp the actual tasks they're going
               | to do.
               | 
               | I would guess the long term strategy is to do this for
               | economies of scale and then push into new markets opened
               | up by the lower price point. I would guess these are
               | horribly expensive right now, given something like Spot
               | is way simpler and still like $40k
        
             | lvspiff wrote:
             | this is something that also never made sense to me - it
             | felt like star wars got it right - for repairs and remedial
             | tasks a trash can (rs-d2) or all the little service droids
             | are more appropriate, but c3p0 or other nurse and protocol
             | droids makes sense to look more humanistic since they serve
             | functions to facilitate human activitiy - but there is no
             | way those functions are numerous enough to be priofitable.
        
             | floxy wrote:
             | >I'm not even convinced humanoid robots are going to pan
             | out in general.
             | 
             | I want one personally, so it can rake the leaves, mow the
             | lawn, tend the garden, do the laundry and dishes, replace
             | the roof, etc., when I'm old. But they should also be used
             | to pick up litter along the highway, paint over graffiti,
             | etc..
        
               | UebVar wrote:
               | I feel like the humanoid form is getting in the way for
               | that, and that a "Spot" like design with a hand on top is
               | better suited for that. Also i think laundry and dishes
               | are already 95% automated since about 50 years.
        
         | petesergeant wrote:
         | Tesla valuation prices in the minuscule but real chance that
         | Elon is able to pull a unicorn[0] out of his ass at some point
         | in the future.
         | 
         | 0: The magical creature, not a 1bn company
        
         | lawn wrote:
         | It's a meme stock. There's nothing rational about Teslas
         | valuation.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Waymo needs $16B to build what Tesla already has: manufacturing
         | capacity. Without that, there are only so many cars they can
         | put on the road. They've proven they can do the rides. But they
         | haven't proven they can do it cost effectively. To scale up and
         | start making a profit, they'll need to start building/buying
         | lots of Waymo cars. That's not going to be cheap or fast.
         | That's going to involve a lot of capital expenses.
         | 
         | Tesla is the other way around. They can definitely make lots of
         | cars and make a profit. But they haven't quite gotten FSD to
         | the stage where it can do rides properly. Supposing they at
         | some point figure that one out, they are very well positioned
         | to start producing vehicles by the hundreds of thousands pretty
         | soon after. That's indeed the premise for their valuation. It's
         | risky but not completely without merit.
         | 
         | Another point to make is that Waymo and Tesla are not going to
         | have this market to themselves for very long. There are quite a
         | few autonomous ride hailing companies serving rides at this
         | point. And while the attention is often on the US, China is
         | moving pretty quickly as well. Several companies competing
         | there in several huge Chinese cities, for example.
         | 
         | On the US side, I think there are a few players that might
         | become competitive soon. Zoox is looking pretty solid. And
         | Rivian is rumored to be pushing autonomy as well. There are a
         | few more players in various stages of technical readiness.
         | 
         | The real battle will be in a few years when we are past the
         | basic "does it work", "is it safe" questions and legal
         | approvals all over the world become more routine. Then it will
         | be all about volume and scaling. That's going to take probably
         | at least until 2030.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | Based on the news, I think Waymo will import base vehicle
           | builds from China and then adding the control systems and
           | software to those. So it's not like they will start making
           | cars.
        
             | sowbug wrote:
             | That sounds right. Unless Waymo considers car manufacturers
             | to be its competition and therefore something to
             | commoditize, it wouldn't make sense for them to get
             | involved in ground-up manufacturing.
             | 
             | And by this point, it seems like an electric-car platform
             | already is close to a commodity, which is another reason
             | for Waymo not to waste capital building another.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | They probably see the electronics and software as their
               | product, hopefully they will license it to someone so my
               | next car will have it :). Lidar prices are cheap enough
               | these days (but coming out of China, so who knows with
               | Trump if that will apply to us).
        
               | sowbug wrote:
               | Another approach is Waymo acquires Tesla's auto
               | technology. Tesla sloughs off its dinosaur car business
               | to focus on its new robot mission, and Waymo detoxifies
               | the Tesla auto brand.
               | 
               | Aside from destroying about $1.25 trillion of market cap,
               | this would leave everyone better off.
        
             | dmix wrote:
             | Who will repair them and maintain all of the electronics?
             | Even if you buy cars that's a giant operation.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | You don't really maintain electronics, you swap them out
               | when they are detected to be bad. Electric vehicles don't
               | need tune ups or overhauls, it is light maintenance and
               | full on component swaps. Send the defective components
               | back to the factory for refurbishment and/or recycling.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Nah. The local car dealerships and Tesla service centers
               | seem to be pretty busy doing heavy maintenance on
               | electric vehicles. The drive train might be marginally
               | simpler but there are still a lot of moving parts that
               | break or corrode just like any other vehicle.
        
               | dmix wrote:
               | I don't think $50k LIDAR sensor suites are disposable
               | like that and the computer integrations is pretty
               | sophisticated I'd imagine. These cars will take a
               | beating.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | Waymo has 0 need for manufacturing capacity. There are dozens
           | of companies that do that really well at a low margin already
           | that'll be happy for the business. They made a timing mistake
           | by choosing Zeekr for it, which is limiting their expansion
           | at the moment. That's a lot easier/cheaper/quicker to fix by
           | choosing a different partner than by building their own.
        
             | dzonga wrote:
             | zeeker ? Wow that is news.
             | 
             | thought Waymo was partnered with Jaguar-LandRover ?
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Waymo is getting the I-Pace from Steyr, the contract
               | manufacture who makes them for Jaguar.
        
             | kccqzy wrote:
             | Waymo also chose more conventional auto makers such as
             | Hyundai. The Zeekr partnership is not an exclusive.
             | https://waymo.com/blog/2024/10/waymo-and-hyundai-enter-
             | partn...
        
           | IshKebab wrote:
           | Making a driverless car "driver" is clearly _much_ harder
           | than manufacturing cars though. Many companies manufacture
           | cars and have done for decades. On the other hand Waymo is
           | the _only_ company that has _actual_ driverless cars on the
           | road. It took them a very long time. Tesla have been trying
           | for a very long time too and still have a long way to go.
           | 
           | So IMO Waymo has something far more valuable than Tesla.
           | (Obviously the market isn't rational though so I wouldn't
           | necessarily invest based on that.)
        
         | guywithahat wrote:
         | Probably because Tesla sells about a million cars a year,
         | including the worlds best selling car (Model Y) since 2023. The
         | stock consistently performs well as well, I know they
         | outperformed estimates for last quarter. Being positioned well
         | for autonomous driving presumably helps hold the stock up, but
         | I don't think that's the core of the valuation, and Waymo does
         | a fraction of what Tesla does. Waymo is impressive, but their
         | 2025 revenue was ~350 million.
        
       | jFriedensreich wrote:
       | No product had such a fast transition from novelty to "omg i
       | never want to interact with a human again". I feel about 100%
       | less stressed and happier using a waymo or riding motorbike or
       | bicycle next to a waymo than with human drivers. I hope this next
       | phase will bring availability and prices down. We need this in
       | europe.
        
         | locknitpicker wrote:
         | > No product had such a fast transition from novelty to "omg i
         | never want to interact with a human again".
         | 
         | I still recall when taxi services were the only offering, and
         | Uber et al were marketed as ride sharing services instead of
         | ride hailing services. It's hard to put into words the
         | transformative effect that ride hailing services had throughout
         | the world. Overall rides are now far safer and more reliable,
         | to the point where the old days feel like the dark ages.
        
         | lazarus01 wrote:
         | Im fortunate to live in an area dense with traditional taxis
         | and Ubers, no Waymo yet.
         | 
         | I rarely take taxis, the exception is when I have to haul my
         | gear to the studio for a jam session. I always take a taxi,
         | because it's cheaper and faster than using an app to call an
         | uber.
         | 
         | On 80% of the trips, I end up having a nice chat with the
         | driver and learn something new about humanity or myself.
         | 
         | I really enjoy these interactions, but I feel for the drivers,
         | it's a very tough job where most taxi drivers have to scramble
         | to find places to urinate or do so in an empty bottle between
         | their legs. There is not much dignity in the job. I feel a
         | negligible segment enjoy it as a reliable career.
         | 
         | I wonder what will happen to the drivers if a large
         | representation of the 1 million+ daily trips are displaced by
         | automation?
        
           | dmd wrote:
           | God, yes, and someone think of the gong farmers and pole men.
        
             | nananana9 wrote:
             | That's a pretty dismissive attitude for ~100 million
             | professional drivers worldwide, making a living doing
             | actual useful work on a forum where the vast majority of
             | users do not do any useful work.
        
               | strulovich wrote:
               | I personally find that fighting dismissive attitudes is
               | better done by not being dismissive towards other things
               | (or people in this case)
               | 
               | It's healthier for the discussion culture here as well.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | There is also a demographic cliff most of the world is
               | currently going off, declining birth rates and labor
               | shortages. Would you rather have a human nurse in your
               | very old age retirement, or a human driver. Because we
               | don't have enough young people now for both.
        
               | malfist wrote:
               | Maybe the better option is to not be so anti immigration
        
               | xnx wrote:
               | Birth rate is declining almost everywhere
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | So let's poach these people from the third world
               | and...what about the third world? People can't just be
               | made in factories like robots and self driving cars can.
               | It seems inevitable that either we will have really sucky
               | retirements (please die early grandpa, we can't take care
               | of you!) OR (hopefully) automation will come to the
               | rescue despite luddite protests.
        
               | Alive-in-2025 wrote:
               | Plenty of people from the third world are interested in
               | moving, trying something new. We should all be free to
               | try new things, but of course you he world isn't set up
               | that way. Seems like we could match up dual needs. The
               | western developed world is in the midst of a racist and
               | fascist period, so not the best time to try this. We have
               | competing changes, shortage of workers in many job areas
               | in the West like the trades in the US, also shortage of
               | jobs for young people in the west.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | I'm all for immigration, but the world isn't producing
               | enough people to make that a very viable long term
               | solution. Eventually we have to reduce our demand for
               | labor, especially when our civilization is lopsided for
               | awhile with older people and not enough young people (a
               | problem that will fix itself eventually as the old people
               | die off, I guess).
               | 
               | I'm OK with robots driving cars like I'm ok with not
               | needing an elevator operator anymore to use an elevator.
        
               | stackghost wrote:
               | I think the word "professional" is doing a lot of heavy
               | lifting in your comment.
               | 
               | My experience with taxis has been almost universally
               | negative.
        
               | greyw wrote:
               | I wont really miss taxi drivers. I guess that says a lot
               | about them.
        
               | znkynz wrote:
               | I've taken taxis in the US, and i can understand why
               | people wouldn't want to. Taxis in other countries are a
               | different experience.
        
               | dyauspitr wrote:
               | Artificially protecting jobs by holding back technology
               | is terrible form. At best it's short term before the
               | economics become an order of magnitude cheap and at worst
               | it's hamstringing your economy so you're left behind.
        
               | anonymars wrote:
               | Be that as it may, I would argue there's a straight line
               | from "it's okay to destroy this fairly-low-skill-career
               | for the good of the economy" to the overall situation the
               | US finds itself in today
        
               | Al-Khwarizmi wrote:
               | Well, the point is that if we reach a point in which a
               | robot can do it better and cheaper, it's no longer useful
               | work.
        
           | josu wrote:
           | >I wonder what will happen to the drivers if a large
           | representation of the 1 million+ daily trips are displaced by
           | automation?
           | 
           | If it happens gradually enough, they will just find other
           | jobs. After the transition, society will be producing more
           | with the same labor force, and thus the aggregate utility
           | will increase.
        
             | buellerbueller wrote:
             | And the median wage will continue to decline, as the
             | productivity gains are scooped up by fewer and fewer.
        
               | Ajedi32 wrote:
               | US median household income is at an all time high.[1] The
               | pandemic caused a decline for a few years but it's
               | recovered now.
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/200838/median-
               | household-...
        
             | bluecheese452 wrote:
             | And homo economist lived happy ever after with his field of
             | spherical cows.
        
           | spookie wrote:
           | Honestly same thing, taxis seem to be polite and up to have a
           | chat about anything here. So, not that hyped about these
           | things really.
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | > I really enjoy these interactions, but I feel for the
           | drivers, it's a very tough job where most taxi drivers have
           | to scramble to find places to urinate or do so in an empty
           | bottle between their legs.
           | 
           | Public toilets, their condition and their non-existence are
           | an often-overlooked issue! It's not just highly problematic
           | for taxi drivers, but also for parcel and postal delivery
           | people... and it's not just relevant for workers either, it's
           | also (IMHO) a violation of anti-discrimination laws.
           | 
           | Imagine you're old and don't have much bladder control or
           | volume, or you're a woman who recently has given birth, or
           | you got one of the variety of bowel related diseases, or
           | you've got a child who is still dependent on diapers. Your
           | range of free unimpeded movement is basically limited to
           | where you have easy and fast access to a toilet or at the
           | very least a place to take care of yourself/a child.
        
           | amccollum wrote:
           | I used to feel this way. In the early days of "ride sharing,"
           | I preferred Lyft and would sit up front so I could have a
           | conversation with the driver, which they encouraged. It was
           | really fun for a while, and I enjoyed meeting people from
           | different walks of life. Over time, though, transportation
           | became much more functional for me, and now when I take non-
           | autonomous rides, it's more irksome than enjoyable when
           | drivers strike up conversations.
           | 
           | Why the change? I think a big part of your experience is the
           | fact that you "rarely take taxis." Once you're doing it daily
           | or near-daily, the amount of smalltalk becomes more tiresome.
           | Also, with kids and a busy life, I'm usually either looking
           | to get things done or enjoy a rare moment to myself as I'm
           | moving from place-to-place. I agree with OP that Waymo is a
           | huge step up on those dimensions. There's no other human in
           | the same space to feel awkward around.
           | 
           | The fact that they drive more safely and smoothly is a huge
           | improvement, as well. Ironically, I thought this was going to
           | be something I would hate about Waymo. "You mean it drives
           | the speed limit and follows all the traffic laws? It will
           | take forever to get anywhere." It took approximately one ride
           | for my perspective to completely flip. It's so much nicer to
           | not feel the stress of a driver who is driving aggressively
           | or jerking to a stop/start at every intersection. It's not
           | like you can tell them to just ease up a bit, either. When we
           | ride with our kids, we feel massively safer in Waymos.
           | 
           | Yes, it will be disruptive, and I don't particularly love the
           | dominance that big tech has in all of our lives, but I do
           | think Waymo is a marvel, and I hugely appreciate it as an
           | option. As soon as they can take kids alone to all their
           | various activities, it will be yet another massive unlock for
           | parents.
        
             | direwolf20 wrote:
             | Taxis daily! In a country without trains, is that normal?
        
               | tfehring wrote:
               | Driving to work is the most common way of commuting
               | everywhere in the US except NYC. So in that sense, no,
               | taking a taxi to work daily is not normal, just as
               | walking, biking, and taking public transit aren't normal.
               | 
               | When I worked in San Francisco I took Caltrain to the
               | city, but I took Waymo from the train station to the
               | office. San Francisco, like almost all US cities, has
               | poor local transit coverage. In my case there was a bus
               | that took a similar route, but it only ran every 20
               | minutes even during commute hours and wasn't coordinated
               | with the train, so if everything was running on time it
               | would have been a 17 minute wait (plus an extra 5 minutes
               | walking). I was busy and well paid enough that spending
               | the extra $10 to save ~20 minutes of travel (and the
               | uncertainty of when the bus would arrive, and how
               | strongly it would smell like piss) was well worth it.
        
               | vasilipupkin wrote:
               | not everywhere in the US except NYC. People take trains
               | in Chicago, for example.
        
               | tfehring wrote:
               | They do, at a much higher rate than the US as a whole,
               | but cars are still dominant. Transit mode share in the
               | city of Chicago is around 21%, down from 28% pre-
               | pandemic, while driving is at 44%. For Chicagoland as a
               | whole, driving is 63%, transit only 9%. The usual source
               | for this data is the American Community Survey; I pulled
               | these numbers from https://api.census.gov, but the same
               | source is also cited in e.g. Wikipedia (https://en.wikipe
               | dia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_high_...) and
               | Bloomberg
               | (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-22/how-
               | ameri...)
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | San Francisco's connection to Caltrain is deplorable, but
               | as far as US cities go, the heart of it has pretty good
               | public transportation.
        
               | socalgal2 wrote:
               | > but as far as US cities go
               | 
               | That the load bearing part right there. SF's
               | transportation is pretty piss poor
        
               | michaelt wrote:
               | According to [1] the median Bay Area big tech worker
               | earns $272k/year - or $130/hour.
               | 
               | According to [2] Uber drivers make $15 to $25 an hour,
               | before expenses like fuel.
               | 
               | So while it's not _normal_ it 's certainly plausible that
               | _some_ people take taxis on a daily basis.
               | 
               | More broadly, as levels of wealth inequality rise in a
               | given society, more people end up working in the personal
               | service sector doing things like cleaning, food delivery,
               | taxi driving etc.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-
               | engineer/locations/san-fra... [2]
               | https://www.triplog.net/blog/how-much-do-uber-drivers-
               | make
        
           | biztos wrote:
           | I'm surprised they don't have opt-in LLM-based "chatty mode"
           | where you can talk to the AI personality of your choice while
           | riding. Obviously shouldn't be the same AI that's deciding
           | whether to run over the child or crash into the oncoming
           | train.
           | 
           | [edit: riding not driving]
        
             | LargeWu wrote:
             | > LLM-based "chatty mode" where you can talk to the AI
             | personality of your choice
             | 
             | I'm genuinely baffled that people would want to do this.
        
               | biztos wrote:
               | I've been mercilessly downvoted for the suggestion, so at
               | least on HN we can assume it's not what people want. :-)
        
             | christkv wrote:
             | Jhonny Cab from Total Recall
        
             | socalgal2 wrote:
             | why would anyone need this when then can pull out their
             | phone and use their LLM of choice, if they wanted. I expect
             | some large percentage of social users will just facetime
             | chat with their friends during the ride
        
           | dyauspitr wrote:
           | I think there will still be delivery services where you need
           | someone to go into the restaurant and then up to the
           | customers door. That's going to stick around unless we get to
           | a point where the restaurant is responsible to load up the
           | Waymo and the customer is responsible for getting it out
           | which probably won't happen anytime soon. The whole delivery
           | market was also mostly created overnight from something that
           | didn't exist before.
        
             | 6keZbCECT2uB wrote:
             | In Miami, there are several competing companies like Coco
             | Robotics which employ human "pilots" to monitor a small
             | fleet of robot delivery boxes where the restaurant deposits
             | the food in the box and the box unlocks with integration
             | into the app.
             | 
             | Just figured you'd want to know anytime soon was at least a
             | year ago.
        
               | GuinansEyebrows wrote:
               | these things are all over the city i live in, too.
               | absolute menace and an abuse of the commons. i've had
               | them literally run into me more than once and i've
               | started physically moving them out of my way when they
               | stop in the middle of the sidewalk.
        
           | scyzoryk_xyz wrote:
           | As a former Lyft driver in SF I felt kinda weird when saw the
           | bit about urination. Like, that's just not a problem. As a
           | driver you just plan ahead as in any other job out there
           | where you're not allowed to disengage at a whim. Pilots and
           | surgeons don't pee in bottles, why would drivers? It's kinda
           | funny when people try to empathize but come up with these
           | creative scenarios of what's challenging. The parts that are
           | bad are same as any other thing done for a living: money and
           | dealing with other people. The job was shit when people were
           | shit and/or when the money was shit.
           | 
           | I enjoyed it as a job, not a career. But that was in 2015.
        
             | elijaht wrote:
             | Pilots and surgeons surely have easily accessible bathrooms
             | as a part of their workplace, no? They're also compensated
             | significantly more and (IMHO) given a lot more dignity
             | 
             | In my city public bathrooms are extremely rare and it's not
             | trivial to find one. I'm sure taxi drivers are a bit more
             | in tune with where they are out of necessity but even then
             | it's no guarantee they can find convenient parking/be in
             | the right place/etc.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | No. Not for some surgeons at least. Once you start
               | cutting you may have to stay until the job is done so get
               | good at holding it. In the The Way I Heard It with Mike
               | Rowe podcast episode Dr. Rahul Seth talks about doing 12
               | hour surgeries. No breaks, no bathroom, constantly on his
               | feet working.
               | 
               | https://www.iheart.com/podcast/867-the-way-i-heard-it-
               | with-m...
               | 
               | Commercial pilots flying airliners generally have it a
               | bit easier. As for military pilots flying tactical
               | aircraft, well this song might give you an idea of what
               | they face.
               | 
               | https://genius.com/Dos-gringos-12-inch-penis-lyrics
        
               | scyzoryk_xyz wrote:
               | Yep. This is a really weird thread. The no bathroom piss
               | in bottle thing is not a thing I encountered in my IRL
               | XP. Never felt this imaginary problem, never affected my
               | dignity.
               | 
               | Funny enough, I did later work on surgical training tech
               | and went into O.R.'s. And yeah, everyone in the room
               | stays until the work is done, no easy pee pee breaks.
               | Back to back procedures. But then also nobody ever
               | complained about that there either. It's a fun job.
               | 
               | Idk. I'd reiterate a point I was getting at: what makes
               | any job less dignified is dealing with shit people and/or
               | shit pay. Fwiw Bathrooms you can plan for same as you
               | plan for getting hungry by packing a lunch.
        
           | 93po wrote:
           | try talking to young attractive women on their experiences
           | and you'll maybe appreciate this somewhat forced interaction
           | less. my partner has been literally kidnapped multiple times
           | (refused to take her to her destination and refused to let
           | her out for over an hour), had drivers refuse to unlock doors
           | until she gave them her number at least once every two
           | months, and constantly has drivers take detours and longer
           | routes to force conversation for longer.
           | 
           | the sooner we can stop subjecting people to having to
           | interact with strangers in a semi-private setting just for
           | basic needs like getting around, the better off vulnerable
           | people will be
        
         | nvch wrote:
         | For me, this is the major selling point to own a car. I may
         | drive a few times a week, and taxis might be much cheaper, but
         | no way I'm going to deal with human taxi drivers if I have a
         | choice.
        
           | catlover76 wrote:
           | Taxis are not a replacement for having a car for commuting
           | for like 99% of people
        
           | bandofthehawk wrote:
           | This seems weird to me, maybe it's a generational thing. Is
           | it really that bad to share a car with someone? You don't
           | have to talk to them the whole time.
        
             | robcohen wrote:
             | Personally, I find it odd to have interactions with anyone
             | just based of transactionality. I want to interact with
             | people because I have relationships with them. I've always
             | found it hard to figure out exactly how nice to be with
             | someone you don't know. I don't think this is a
             | maladjustment on my part, I think you probably shouldn't be
             | overly nice to people before you establish trust with
             | them... and that takes time.
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | The human driver could be nodding off because they didn't
             | bother sleeping last night, or maybe they just had some
             | food with lots of garlic, or...ya, this has all happened to
             | me before. I'll take the Waymo over uber.
        
               | socalgal2 wrote:
               | I've had one driving while reading their phone and
               | checking stocks and looking up for about 1/2 a second of
               | every 4 seconds.
        
             | yfdrea wrote:
             | As a woman, while 95% of the ridesharing trips I take are
             | perfectly pleasant and sometimes great with conversation
             | the 5% of rides where you are trapped in a car with a creep
             | asking you extremely off putting questions sours the entire
             | concept of ride sharing for me.
        
               | Arete314159 wrote:
               | Same. Ever been a vulnerable woman stuck in a car with a
               | man who starts ranting that "nobody wants to date men who
               | aren't rich anymore" and it turns out the driver is angry
               | because the women that are trapped as riders won't go out
               | with him?
               | 
               | Or how about, "Nice place...you live alone here?"
               | 
               | Absolutely would choose the robot.
        
               | GuinansEyebrows wrote:
               | the situations you've described _and_ the fact that our
               | answer as a society is seemingly to throw up our hands at
               | our inability to solve these situations other than by
               | increasing the number of cars on the road in a way that
               | funnels even more wealth to a tiny group of unfathomably
               | wealthy sociopaths who also use ourour personal
               | information to impact our spending habits... very
               | depressing. i really hate it here.
        
               | okdood64 wrote:
               | Yea, I can't imagine being a woman and having to deal
               | with some of these drivers.
               | 
               | This doesn't compare, but as a man I get really put off
               | by the amount of invasive questions (where I work, where
               | my family is from, etc) when I'm just trying to get from
               | point A to point B.
               | 
               | I'm a mid-millenial FWIW, so I very much remember a world
               | of only having old school taxis.
        
             | overfeed wrote:
             | > Is it really that bad to share a car with someone?
             | 
             | Sometimes it is, and you never really know when.
             | 
             | Some of my most unpleasant experiences involved a couple of
             | reckless drivers, even more nutters who _insisted_ on
             | talking about their politics or pet peeves, I fear one of
             | them may have gone beyond mere eccentricity and probably
             | required some medical intervention, but couldn 't figure
             | out how to report that without possibly resulting in the
             | driver being punished by the app.
        
               | wincy wrote:
               | Hah, I had a 2am conversation with a woman from Argentina
               | about Javier Milei which is one of my Uber riding
               | highlights.
               | 
               | But then another time a guy warned me not to open his
               | glove box because his Glock was in there and he sounded
               | deranged and it's the one time I've literally gotten out
               | of the car and cancelled my Uber.
               | 
               | One female Uber driver told me about how she had to go to
               | court because a drunk man threatened to stab her with a
               | knife (that he was brandishing), then he passed out and
               | the police had to haul him out of her car. The .1% ruin
               | it for everyone else.
        
             | wincy wrote:
             | The Uber Driver who told me all about his Glock in the
             | glove box was pretty off putting.
             | 
             | Also the Jeep that picked me up in August with broken air
             | conditioning, although that was an annoyance vs "what is
             | happening right now am I going to die".
        
             | minwcnt5 wrote:
             | "Yes it is that bad" - every woman I've ever talked to.
        
           | spwa4 wrote:
           | I always (as soon as I could) owned a car, first on
           | independence, but soon that became on price. A car costs
           | between $350 and $500 per month, plus about 2 gas tanks,
           | let's say $600. That's only 10-15 short taxi rides and two
           | long taxi rides at best.
           | 
           | And now I have a family, there's 5 of us. A car is easily
           | less than half the price of public transport for what I need
           | to do (because you pay per person).
           | 
           | I hate traffic, and I don't really like driving, but since a
           | car is easily 30 minutes faster than public transport to
           | drive in to work, sadly 30 minutes of traffic in the morning
           | is still faster than public transport, no matter how annoying
           | it is. Oh and no waiting in the rain/cold is a nice bonus.
        
             | kccqzy wrote:
             | A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month. If it does,
             | it's a status symbol, not merely a tool to get from A to B,
             | and therefore it is unfair to compare it against taxi
             | rides.
             | 
             | There's nothing wrong with wanting a nicer more luxurious
             | car for yourself. But it's just ingenious to compare that
             | against taxis with beaten-up and spartan but reliable cars.
        
               | graeme wrote:
               | That's not outrageous as a car price once you add
               | insurance, maintenance, taxes, parking, license fee,
               | cleaning, etc
               | 
               | Along with any interest on the purchase or foregone
               | investment gains. You can use a true cost of ownership
               | calculator here.
               | 
               | https://www.edmunds.com/honda/accord/2022/cost-to-
               | own/?style...
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | > A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month.
               | 
               | Insurance alone can be 100EUR a month (and more so for
               | younger drivers). At a very modest 5 liters / 100km and a
               | one way route of 20 km you're at 800km a month / 40
               | liters of gas => 1.80EUR a liter => 72EUR in fuel. Your
               | average car then has 20 ct/km for maintenance costs
               | (inspections, spare parts, oil changes, tires, workshop
               | time), so another 160EUR a month - and more if it is a
               | run-down junker car.
               | 
               | That are just the fixed running costs you have with
               | pretty much _every_ car, around 330EUR a month. We haven
               | 't talked about depreciation yet _at all_. Even if you
               | say you buy a barely road worthy wreck for 3000 EUR and
               | run it until it 's only ripe for the junkyard to fetch
               | maybe 500 EUR every two years, that's still about 100EUR
               | a month you're paying.
               | 
               | And what we also haven't had a single talk about is
               | operating and purchase taxes, highway tolls, city-core
               | tolls, rental spots for parking (including the price you
               | have paid for the garage in your house, it's a lot of
               | real estate), that also can easily add to many hundreds
               | of euros each year.
               | 
               | Cars are _expensive_ once you actually include
               | replacement /depreciation and maintenance costs.
        
               | amccollum wrote:
               | The standard tax deduction for car travel is $0.70 / mile
               | in the US, which accounts for things like insurance, gas,
               | maintenance, and depreciation. So $500 / month is around
               | 700 miles, which probably around 90% of US drivers
               | surpass.
        
               | tanseydavid wrote:
               | There is no tax deduction (in the US) for vehicle use
               | that is non-business related.
        
               | zimzam wrote:
               | Correct, the person you are responding to is using it as
               | a benchmark for the all-in cost of driving a vehicle on a
               | per-mile basis.
        
               | Analemma_ wrote:
               | Car insurance has essentially doubled in price over the
               | past few years, from a combination of
               | 
               | - cars becoming more complicated to repair. Marco Arment
               | of Overcast related an incident where his Rivian had a
               | simple fender bender, and his insurance was billed
               | $15,000 in labor and parts to fix it because of the
               | monobody construction where you have to tear apart half
               | the car to fix anything
               | 
               | - inflation in both goods and services means car repair
               | costs are going up
               | 
               | - more reckless and uninsured drivers thanks to general
               | post-covid norm breakdowns
               | 
               | Insurance alone can now be $150-200/month even if you
               | don't have a particularly nice car. Combine that with
               | gas, maintenance, and registration taxes, and I think
               | most people in the US are paying at least $350/month for
               | their car even if amortized costs mean they don't realize
               | it.
        
               | mikestew wrote:
               | _Marco Arment of Overcast related an incident where his
               | Rivian had a simple fender bender, and his insurance was
               | billed $15,000 in labor and parts to fix it because of
               | the monobody construction where you have to tear apart
               | half the car to fix anything_
               | 
               | Hyundai Ioniq 5, backing into the garage next to the RV,
               | and at "backing into the garage" speed ran into the RV.
               | The fiberglass body of the RV suffered a 3 inch diameter
               | break in the fiberglass that I could have fixed myself.
               | The Hyundai? _17,000_ American dollars. The rear quarter
               | panel took a dent, and (IIRC) the bumper might have had
               | some damage. Part of the problem was that there really
               | isn 't a "rear quarter panel" anymore. No, as I looked at
               | it, that piece of sheet metal goes all the way from the
               | rear bumper to the front of the passenger compartment.
               | The shop didn't replace that piece, but rather cut the
               | dented piece out and welded in new sheet metal.
               | 
               | Between that, and all the sensors, etc., $17K for backing
               | into a piece of fiberglass at not even a walking pace.
               | Now that the car has some years on it, if I do that again
               | they'll probably total it.
        
               | Lammy wrote:
               | > I think most people in the US are paying at least
               | $350/month
               | 
               | What an absurd statement. Mine has gone down in the past
               | several years, and I pay around that per 6 months.
        
               | Sohcahtoa82 wrote:
               | > A car does not cost $350 and $500 per month.
               | 
               | This can vary a lot.
               | 
               | 6 years ago, I was driving a Subaru BRZ which averaged 32
               | mpg. My commute was ~30 miles each way, add in a couple
               | miles for weekly errands, and let's just say I was using
               | 10 gallons/week. If gas was $3, that's $30/week,
               | $120/month. Plus $150/month for insurance, it's
               | $270/month.
               | 
               | Still way under your 350-500/month figure, but that's
               | also assuming the car is paid off.
               | 
               | > If it does, it's a status symbol, not merely a tool to
               | get from A to B, and therefore it is unfair to compare it
               | against taxi rides.
               | 
               | $350-500/month is cheaper than taxi rides. Even with a
               | more reasonable 5-10 mile commute, I'd be spending
               | probably $50/DAY if I took taxis.
        
               | vel0city wrote:
               | You're not including an amortized cost of maintenance,
               | registration fees, etc. Adding in tires alone ($720 for a
               | set, 50k/1200 ~=41 months, ~$17.50/mo) brings it to
               | almost $290/mo. Oil change every 6 months or so, add
               | another $10/mo or so. Now we're at $300/mo and hoping
               | nothing in the car breaks and needs repairs on a car
               | that's already paid off, and we still haven't paid our
               | taxes and registration fees.
               | 
               | Now figure in the fact you've got several thousand
               | dollars in a car instead of even something like a high-
               | yield savings account. At even 4% APY, if you had just
               | $8k tied up in that car that's another ~$27/mo of
               | _income_ you 're missing out on.
               | 
               | I'm not making the argument riding a taxi for every trip
               | is cheaper than this. Just pointing out there's a lot of
               | things people don't think about when they think of the
               | cost of car ownership.
        
               | timerol wrote:
               | The average monthly payment for a used car in the US in
               | 2025 was $532, according to
               | https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/average-car-
               | paym.... This does not count insurance, taxes, parking,
               | or gas.
               | 
               | A status symbol will easily run you $1000/mo. I currently
               | pay $350/mo (including cost of capital), and I don't know
               | how I would pay less for a car that's not actively
               | falling apart. Chevy Spark, manual transmission, $7k KBB
               | value, averaging 500 miles per month.
        
               | bigstrat2003 wrote:
               | There's no shot that number isn't being driven up by
               | people purchasing more car than they need. You can get a
               | used car for $10,000 or less, there's no reason one
               | _needs_ to pay $500 /mo.
        
               | GuinansEyebrows wrote:
               | huh? i bought a used, very low-end/utilitarian 10 year
               | old car and paid more than half upfront and my monthly
               | payment was like $300. factor in insurance and gas and i
               | was easily close to 400-450. the days of $1000 beaters
               | that actually run well are gone :(
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | I'm guessing you live in America where car ownership is
             | heavily subsidized? Many places you would spend $500/month
             | just to park your car, maybe more.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | In most of America there is abundant free parking on
               | private property including homes, stores, and workplaces.
               | That is hardly a subsidy. I understand the argument that
               | dense cities shouldn't have so much free public street
               | parking but there are only a handful of neighborhoods
               | where that even matters.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | The "free parking" isn't really free, you just have land
               | that is really cheap devoted to it. And where it
               | isn't...well, American housing prices and rents are
               | increased to pay for them. Street parking matters in
               | almost every neighborhood in Seattle now...since parking
               | on its own is expensive, and you will also have to pay
               | for a few busted windows on your car for the pleasure of
               | free street parking.
               | 
               | The highways are heavily subsidized by general funds
               | these days since raising the gas tax outside of a few
               | states isn't very popular.
               | 
               | I'm American but in the other countries I lived in
               | (Switzerland and China) and the many countries I've
               | visited, private car ownership is always a luxury, not a
               | cheap necessety attainable by everyone.
        
               | bigstrat2003 wrote:
               | > The "free parking" isn't really free, you just have
               | land that is really cheap devoted to it.
               | 
               | When I can park my car in my driveway at no marginal cost
               | to myself, most people (including me) would call that
               | free.
        
             | smugma wrote:
             | Yes, all those things. Except on cost, at least in SF, MUNI
             | is free for children.
             | 
             | We mostly drive wherever we need to go, especially when
             | it's all of us. But if we're going to a Warriors game, we
             | always take Muni, at it's more convenient (and free for
             | adults too if you show your ticket).
             | 
             | Also, it's generally faster and more convenient (and fun)
             | to get to Chase Center via Muni than driving. Getting back
             | is tough both because this is peak Lyft/Waymo demand as
             | well as peak Muni demand.
        
             | boplicity wrote:
             | The cost is a factor -- and something that I think policy
             | makers should very much push to change.
             | 
             | For our family of four, two of us pay for public transport
             | as of now. That adds up to $12 round trip; which is often
             | more expensive than parking in the even in a high density
             | area. Once we have to start paying for the kids too, that
             | would add up to $24 for a round trip, which ends up being
             | more expensive than driving. I get that public
             | transportation is expensive to operate; maybe that alone is
             | the root of the problem here.
        
         | askl wrote:
         | > We need this in europe.
         | 
         | No we don't. Your github says you're from Berlin, why the hell
         | would you ever need a taxi in your life?
         | 
         | Someone should just find a cure for for the fear techbros have
         | of being near poor people.
        
           | jFriedensreich wrote:
           | I don't live in Berlin, but even if: have you ever taken
           | public transport in less mainstream lines? Apart from nothing
           | working and connections taking forever and operations
           | stopping at night, horrible signage that lets you stress even
           | more, you sit next to human excrements, hooligans coming from
           | football games, nazis wanting to beat you up, stink, rude
           | music and beggers. I sometimes miss it for sentimental value,
           | but compared to a world of robots driving us with relaxing
           | music in a clean and safe space i know what future I want.
        
             | dmoy wrote:
             | Is there really that much poop on Berlin public transit?
             | 
             | Seattle has some of the highest per capital homeless in the
             | US, and a dearth of public toilets, and yet there's not
             | that much poop on our public transit.
             | 
             | I am also skeptical that y'all's violent crime rate is
             | higher than ours.
             | 
             | Granted I haven't taken Berlin public transit in 20 yrs, so
             | I don't know.
        
               | dmoy wrote:
               | > I am also skeptical that y'all's violent crime rate is
               | higher than ours.
               | 
               | Ok well I am wrong. Berlin's violent crime rate is 2-4x
               | higher than Seattle? Huh. The homicide rate is within
               | touching distance.
               | 
               | That was not what I expected, ok.
        
               | mikestew wrote:
               | It wouldn't take much to have more violent crime in
               | Seattle, according to my gut (yeah, I know, "show me the
               | numbers"). Granted, it's probably gotten worse since we
               | moved here 25 some years ago, but coming from places like
               | my old hometown of Indianapolis, Seattle didn't have any
               | place I wouldn't feel comfortable walking at night.
               | Again, it's changed a lot since (there _are_ some areas I
               | would avoid at 2 a. m. now), but I still feel much safer
               | in Seattle than other large cities.
        
               | jFriedensreich wrote:
               | its mostly pee and vomit, poo is indeed rare.
        
               | Hikikomori wrote:
               | Didn't see any poop in berlin, but did see it in Shibuya
               | station, spread out by hundreds of people.
        
             | askl wrote:
             | > have you ever taken public transport in less mainstream
             | lines?
             | 
             | Yes, I have. I never drove a car myself and maybe used a
             | taxi 10 times in the last 30 years.
             | 
             | Will waymo even be available in less mainstream areas? It
             | seems more reasonable for them to go for dense places
             | instead and leave the unprofitable regions for someone
             | else.
        
               | tialaramex wrote:
               | > Will waymo even be available in less mainstream areas?
               | 
               | Ever is a long time. It's not reasonable to predict
               | beyond a decade or so. It's easily possible that this
               | becomes huge and in the 2040s people are astonished that
               | "driving yourself" was a thing, the same way it's hard to
               | comprehend now that most people weren't _literate_. Not
               | "Couldn't write an essay / read a newspaper" but
               | "Couldn't sign their name / read a postal address"
               | 
               | But it's also possible that this goes nowhere, and
               | outside of a few large cities there is never a robot taxi
               | market, it just doesn't exist. Waymo is, among other
               | things, a bet that there is a large market.
               | 
               | Dense places are where it starts, but that was also true
               | for the telephone. Bell didn't provide service to tiny
               | rural settlements, they wired places like Boston and New
               | York, AIUI the general service provision was a government
               | initiative even in the US, it was never strictly
               | _profitable_ enough for huge corporations to spend their
               | own money making it universal.
        
               | askl wrote:
               | I mean, I can understand wanting to start in dense
               | places. But those are also the places where public
               | transit is a viable existing solution.
               | 
               | Personal transit just looks incredible inefficient and
               | unscalable if everyone would use it. I could totally see
               | it as a last resort solution for situations where nothing
               | else is available, but that's an unattractive market that
               | isn't going to make anyone rich.
        
               | tialaramex wrote:
               | In an urban area the "last resort" cases add up. The last
               | time I was in a taxi it was the middle of the night, and
               | I'd just smashed my head open, so I had concluded that I
               | must not trust my own judgement and should seek immediate
               | medical attention, buses don't run in the middle of the
               | night (on that route)
        
           | tialaramex wrote:
           | Taxis are also public transport and so their provision in
           | cities is in fact part of the transport fabric. Since there
           | must be taxis, why not improve them?
           | 
           | This isn't about poor people, at least for me, I'd much
           | rather be alone than with Elon fucking Musk. If I want to
           | hang out with people I will choose when and who. The least
           | good bit of being in a taxi is small talk with the driver.
        
           | jstummbillig wrote:
           | Everyone has the "fear" of being near other people,
           | regardless of their affluence. That's why apartments are not
           | built for 20 but got 2-5 people and doors exist. I don't see
           | why it must be a rich people thing when it comes to self
           | driving cars. Could also become super interesting by making
           | remoter areas more serviceable.
        
         | belter wrote:
         | Waymo is not _solving driving_ , it is closer to a
         | sophisticated Disney Parkland ride. It is running inside a
         | tightly constrained Operational Design Domain:
         | 
         | - Geofenced areas
         | 
         | - HD pre-mapped roads
         | 
         | - Curated infrastructure
         | 
         | - Remote ops fallback
         | 
         | This is not general autonomy, it is highend automation inside a
         | controlled distribution. The system degrades exactly where
         | humans do not: construction, unmapped lane shifts, police
         | manually directing traffic, chaotic mixed behavior.
         | 
         | A cop overriding a light is not an "edge case", it is a
         | semantic and social reasoning problem that current perception
         | stacks still do not robustly solve. It works because the world
         | is pre modeled, not because the car understands driving.
         | 
         | Scaling that beyond a few mapped US suburbs into Europe is a
         | totally different problem. Dont get fooled by Wall Street stock
         | pumping.
        
           | guiomie wrote:
           | Am I in the Tesla stock subreddit?
           | 
           | "Scaling that beyond a few mapped US suburbs into Europe is a
           | totally different problem." If you consider SF and LA
           | suburbs, than Europe is a suburb.
        
             | belter wrote:
             | Would you address my other technical comments on what Waymo
             | really is?
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | From a consumer perspective, no one cares what Waymo
               | really is. If customers can pay and get from point A to
               | point B reliably and safely then it doesn't matter how
               | the sausage is made. Regardless of technical challenges
               | and limitations they're obviously going to expand
               | coverage to more areas.
        
           | tokioyoyo wrote:
           | They're currently testing them in weird ass tiny streets here
           | in Tokyo. I have a feeling you haven't been in a Waymo?
        
           | enraged_camel wrote:
           | Most of this comment was written by an LLM. There are certain
           | tells, such as the tone, as well as usage of " for quotations
           | instead of the much more common ". I think you added the last
           | couple of sentences.
        
           | UebVar wrote:
           | Roads are not _solving transportation_ , they are closer to a
           | sophisticated trace track. Roads are a constrained
           | Operational Design Domain:
           | 
           | - Geofenced areas
           | 
           | - pre-build structures
           | 
           | - Curated infrastructure
           | 
           | - fallback to gravel in times of the inevitable event of
           | maintenance.
           | 
           | This is not general transportation, it is a highend
           | infrastructure inside a controlled environment. The system
           | degrades exactly where humans/horses do not: River crossings,
           | Creeks, steep hillsides, marshes, beaches.
           | 
           | A river flooding a road is not and "edge case", it a usual
           | occurrence, and a problem that roads do robustly solve. It
           | works due to extensive maintenance, not because the asphalt
           | can actually deal with water.
           | 
           | Scaling that beyond a few mapped US suburbs into Europe is a
           | totally different problem. Dont get fooled by Wall Street
           | stock pumping.
        
           | kentm wrote:
           | I'm pretty sure people vastly overstate how important "HD
           | pre-mapped roads" are to Waymo.
        
         | noncoml wrote:
         | My anecdote: My wife had to literally have two drinks before
         | here first Waymo ride. Now she doesn't want to use anything
         | else other that Waymo when we can't drive ourselves, and
         | totally agree with her
         | 
         | Having said that, Uber was amazing experience when it started
         | too, now it's on par with cabs.
        
         | pixelready wrote:
         | Yeah, this is one of my guilty automation pleasures alongside
         | self-checkout. I hate that I am displacing a human, and I mourn
         | for the handful of really pleasant taxi / Uber experiences I've
         | had over the years, but damn is Waymo such a better default
         | experience right now.
         | 
         | I really hope there's enough viable competition over time to
         | keep costs down or I worry this will evolve into robo-limos
         | rather than a nice cheap default option for areas without good
         | public transit infrastructure. The DUI prevention alone is such
         | a huge win.
         | 
         | There is the matter of surveillance though. I don't love that I
         | have to take their word on not abusing the cabin recordings,
         | but I guess that's pretty much all modern vehicles (via onStar
         | and the like) not just robo-taxis. Pretty much every Sci-fi
         | dystopian with urban infrastructure has that scene where the
         | corrupt authorities have someone's self-driving car pulled over
         | remotely, that seems important as well given the state of
         | things lately.
        
         | socalgal2 wrote:
         | I do too, except for the fact that Waymos constantly break
         | traffic laws.
        
       | irl_zebra wrote:
       | I love, love, love Waymo and am so excited about their success.
       | Uber and Lyft were the heroes for a while, but became the
       | villains. If Waymo is available anywhere I need a cab, that is
       | absolutely my first choice, even for the premium cost.
        
         | OsrsNeedsf2P wrote:
         | Same. I can't wait for Waymo to reach Fremont; the thought of
         | going to and from SFO in a Waymo that doesn't tip guilt me
         | would be wild.
        
         | echelon wrote:
         | I can't wait to subscribe to Waymo (or any reasonable provider)
         | for personal cars.
         | 
         | It's one thing to call an Uber. It's another to pack your car
         | for a road trip to the beach or mountains.
         | 
         | Waymo is going to make vacationing even bigger than it already
         | is. It'll be easy, especially for remote workers.
         | 
         | Van life with a Waymo is a whole new thing.
        
       | pu_pe wrote:
       | It seems like a fair valuation to me. I can see a path for them
       | to approach or surpass Uber's revenue (~$50B) in the future, and
       | I think their technology and brand are actual moats in comparison
       | to all other driverless systems out there.
        
         | wasmainiac wrote:
         | Sure, but not for a while since there is a lot of hardware to
         | pay for and maintain.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | I'm in the opposite camp. Waymo has neat tech, yes, but already
         | valuing it on par with Uber is absurd considering the sheer
         | scale at which Uber operates. 70 countries, 15K cities, 36
         | million daily trips. And this isn't counting Uber Eats and
         | other side businesses. Waymo will have to accelerate its
         | operations to the max for the next _decade_ just to catch up.
         | And that 's assuming operating at such a scale is even possible
         | considering they have to provide and maintain their own (very
         | expensive) fleet. And this isn't a brand new market - Uber +
         | local taxi companies have already set a hard cap on prices that
         | Waymo cannot cross.
        
           | pu_pe wrote:
           | There is no doubt they have a lot of catching up to do, but
           | you have to consider their advantages.
           | 
           | If Uber goes away, Lyft or others can take over the entire
           | market overnight, precisely because they don't have their own
           | fleet or unique technology. Waymo is placing itself as first
           | mover into a completely new category of transportation which
           | will require capital investment and new tech, so it will be
           | much harder to displace once it gets going. It could target
           | automated cargo transport in the future too.
        
           | remus wrote:
           | No doubt there are significant challenges along the way, but
           | waymo has a real product powered by tech that actually works
           | which could massively change a huge industry. They're also
           | notably more mature than competitors, and have track record
           | of successfully rolling out in a safe way.
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | Unlike Uber which has drivers buying, fixing, and fueling their
         | own cars, Waymo will have to build large fleets and a huge
         | car/computer/LIDAR production/repair pipeline. It will be
         | interesting to hear how they plan to do this at Ubers scale.
         | It's much higher risk, asset and logistics wise.
         | 
         | I don't think there's ever been a giant centralized global taxi
         | fleet.
        
         | naveen99 wrote:
         | Left pocket valuing the right pocket.
        
       | wasmainiac wrote:
       | Wow that is headline carnage. What does it mean?
       | 
       | Edit: there is a paywall in my country. Why downvotes? I'm just
       | curious.
        
         | zamadatix wrote:
         | HN in a bit odd when it comes to paywells. You're not allowed
         | to complain about them and everyone reading is individually
         | expected to figure out how to access the content (which usually
         | involves finding a top comment linking to a workaround for
         | everyone or the usual users all going with their preferred
         | tools silently).
         | 
         | https://archive.is/Lh2QY
        
       | lapetitejort wrote:
       | I do not think driverless will solve the main transportation
       | problem we are dealing with as a society: we are giving up more
       | space for cars, space that humans cannot use. We build more
       | highways, widen roads, increase speed limits, and expect humans
       | to stay out of this space. I live in a 100+ year old
       | neighborhood. The roads were built for horse and buggy and
       | streetcars. Now I have to beg to cross the road. My neighborhood
       | has been effectively chopped up. I question whether I should walk
       | to another block because I'll have to deal with crossing the
       | street. Quiet houses now have the constant buzz of cars either
       | from the ever-present highways or from the 40+ mph traffic right
       | outside their doors. Driverless cars will not solve these
       | problems. Fewer kids will die, partially from safe software, but
       | mostly because they won't be able to leave their bubble without
       | being strapped down into a car.
        
         | guywithahat wrote:
         | In my experience if I want to living in a
         | bikable/walkable/transit oriented area, I have to move there. I
         | think expecting this sort of stuff to come to you is too much,
         | especially since most city centers have good transit options.
         | 
         | That said this is a tech forum, and while I don't think Waymo
         | will be the only solution the tech is quite impressive and it's
         | likely going to change how society works. Most people don't
         | want to take public transit, they want to take a car and this
         | is a much better solution for them. Forcing people to bike when
         | they don't want to seems like bad form imo.
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | No one here should realistically think that Waymo can solve the
         | main transportation problem. It will just (partially) replace
         | Uber, Lyft, and taxis. And it will have a better passenger
         | experience and it will also be safer. It's obvious that cars,
         | autonomous or not, can't replace rail, bicycles, and walking.
        
           | IshKebab wrote:
           | I think it could solve a _lot_ of transportation problems
           | though. In theory if driverless vehicles were ubiquitous you
           | 'd have no on-street parking, no commercial transport in the
           | day (do it all at night), much less traffic (just wait until
           | your slot; maybe with peak time pricing), fewer delays due to
           | crashes, etc.
           | 
           | When nobody drives manually you could even do things like
           | getting rid of traffic lights.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | FWIW Waymo may have been "seeking" this deal when Bloomberg wrote
       | that article but FT reports that it's already closed.
        
       | devmor wrote:
       | As someone who lives in a city with a lot of Waymos (Atlanta), I
       | do not understand why anyone considers these things more than an
       | early test or a novelty.
       | 
       | From an outside perspective, they're constantly obstructing
       | traffic and driving in erratic and confusing ways. It's gotten to
       | a point that if I see one ahead of me, I'll turn down the next
       | block and change my route to avoid being behind it and dealing
       | with whatever slowdown its about to cause.
       | 
       | I took one once via Uber with some coworkers and it was also
       | jarring to ride in. I'd rather take my chances with a random
       | human.
        
       | neom wrote:
       | I'm pretty sure this is the first big post about Waymo on HN, the
       | comments are fun to read:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13168888 :)
        
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