[HN Gopher] Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980, gold tum...
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Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980, gold tumbles
Author : pera
Score : 104 points
Date : 2026-01-30 20:37 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
| empiricus wrote:
| This looks like an IQ test, but for who?
| Ekaros wrote:
| For those on wrong side of options contracts expiring? I would
| guess that this is paper silver being manipulated.
| unsupp0rted wrote:
| Indeed. There's a large delta between paper silver and
| Shanghai physical silver prices right now.
| ProjectArcturis wrote:
| China only has one silver fund (SLV equivalent), and it
| stopped creating new shares. So the existing shares trade
| at a large premium to the value of the underlying metal. Is
| that the "Shanghai physical" price you're talking about?
| kgwgk wrote:
| https://www.shfe.com.cn/eng/Market/Futures/Metal/ag_f/
| ProjectArcturis wrote:
| This was an inevitable correction. Gold and silver had gone
| parabolic for the past month. Nothing goes straight up. This
| takes the gold price all the way back to where it was last week.
|
| Honestly, I don't think Warsh's appointment had much to do with
| it.
| seydor wrote:
| Wouldn't even say this is interesting
| 1970-01-01 wrote:
| It's looks like a flash crash. Somewhat rare, and from an
| algorithm perspective it's interesting.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash
| paxys wrote:
| This is the "dump" part of pump and dump. TikTok influencers have
| been pushing the gold & silver rally for weeks now, and it was
| inevitable that people at the top would eventually cash out.
| onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
| Most of the influencers aren't even in on the investment, they
| just get paid to pump, and a lot of them don't even get paid,
| they just do it for the eye balls.
|
| People want to get rich quick.
|
| There's going to be a never ending list of people that will
| tell them how - just so they can get useless karma points on
| Social Media, even if they don't make any money, and just
| convince you to lose your money.
| constantcrying wrote:
| How financially illiterate do you have to believe that a few
| retail traders cashing out at means anything at all to the
| financial market?
| fn-mote wrote:
| Unnecessarily toxic. How about you give your interpretation
| instead of making us infer it.
| 1970-01-01 wrote:
| Too early to tell. They're both up since 6 months ago. Could be
| another one of those flash crash events. Buckle up!
| IshKebab wrote:
| They're both up since like 8 days ago. This is one of those
| classic bullshit "dramatic change if you only look at
| today!!" stories.
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| True, but 30% _is_ a pretty dramatic change for one day. If
| you look at the history of the silver price - go back as
| far as you like - you won 't find many days when it moves
| 30% in either direction.
|
| Is it the beginning of a longer-term down? I have no idea.
| resters wrote:
| Gold reverted to the price it was _wait for it_ five days ago.
| What actually happened was that Trump was forced /pressured to
| pick Warsh because prices were spiking in anticipation of how
| Trump's preferred pick would impact global finance.
|
| But anyone who thinks Trump won't get his way and control the
| Fed to create hyper-inflation is living in a fantasy world that
| I wish were our actual reality.
|
| We live in a world where Trump launched a criminal
| investigation against Powell. This is not someone who somehow
| learned his lesson in the last five days.
|
| The irony is that if Trump understood how markets perceive
| threats to Fed independence, he'd try to influence rates behind
| closed doors and not make a public spectacle of his attempt to
| undermine Fed independence!
| 01100011 wrote:
| Fed independence is damaged but it was never as independent
| as it should have been.
|
| No one since Volcker has been a real hawk. It hasn't led to
| hyperinflation, just a continual debasement that has served
| many purposes.
| Neywiny wrote:
| While not unexpected, the numbers still say that if you bought
| silver before Trump (which given history of metals countering
| uncertainty and the promised causes of uncertainty was a smart
| move), you're making a solid > doubling even now. For me, though,
| who gets too anxious when trying to attempt such things and ends
| up ruining it, it'll just go on the list of regrets like when I
| thought to but didn't invest in zoom once we started using it in
| 2020.
| pcurve wrote:
| We knew the correction was coming, but I don't think anyone
| expected the 30% move in one day.
| WalterBright wrote:
| Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
| rolph wrote:
| maybe, but almost everyone will see the hot iron
| geraldwhen wrote:
| Probably the opposite. Corrections happen quickly and all at
| once, somewhat similar to growth.
|
| It would be more surprising if the 30% drop was spread out over
| a month.
| lordnacho wrote:
| If memory serves, 1980 was the time of the silver corner by a
| couple of brothers.
| scandox wrote:
| The Bunkers. My father told me the story many times as a child
| and he warned me sternly never to buy Silver. There's always
| more Silver he said. People will be dredging it out of old
| cupboards.
| kamarg wrote:
| The Hunt brothers.
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
| WalterBright wrote:
| Washington state, as part of their frenzy of tax increases,
| decided that gold and silver bullion will be subject to the sales
| tax. Poof! There goes any point in investing in gold and silver.
| (Collector coins, too.)
| laurencerowe wrote:
| That's a win for society if the money is instead invested into
| something productive!
| WalterBright wrote:
| I never invested in gold because it is not productive. I
| don't have any money, either (other than pocket money),
| because I've invested all of it.
|
| Gold is usually invested in as a hedge against inflation.
| It's not really the gold that goes up and down in value, it's
| the dollar that goes down and up.
| fjordofnorway wrote:
| Given that the gold and the dollar are not productive I
| think one is betting that society is less productive than
| inflation when one invests in gold and that one will need
| to pay a ransom over a long weekend when one holds dollars.
| pfannkuchen wrote:
| This is an oversimplification IMO. There are higher order
| effects on the price of gold that makes it not directly
| related to the value of the dollar.
|
| I'm pointing this out because I have seen a lot of
| sentiment recently about how the dollar is crashing, just
| look at the price of gold. Yes, the dollar is decreasing in
| value faster than usual, but it also isn't crashing in the
| way that gold is spiking.
|
| This sentiment I think drives speculative gold demand, from
| standard speculative investing FOMO as well as from
| emotionally driven inflation fear well beyond what is
| realistic. The same thing happens to the stock market.
| oraphalous wrote:
| But it's a loss if it's forced into risky investments that
| aren't productive.
| jkhdigital wrote:
| People choose to hold non-yield-bearing assets when they
| believe the returns offered by current investment
| opportunities are not sufficient to justify the risks.
|
| It is the miracle of modern capital markets that enables
| almost anyone to quickly and easily invest their savings in
| productive assets, but of course capital markets aren't
| perfect. The availability of "none of the above" options
| (like gold) that remove savings from the pool of active
| investment capital is the essential feedback loop that
| balances risk and return.
| SilverElfin wrote:
| Taxing bullion is absurd - it's not a product but more like
| currency or a placeholder of money you already have. What other
| taxes are they passing when you say "frenzy"?
| jfengel wrote:
| Why is it more like a currency than any other object? It's
| not negotiable currency or legal tender.
|
| People buy it and sell it. I don't see any difference between
| bullion, iron ore, frozen concentrated orange juice, and
| Pokemon cards. You buy a thing, you pay the sales tax.
| its_ethan wrote:
| Well it's more like a currency than any other object
| because it has been used historically to either a) be the
| currency, or b) back the currency. Sure that's not true
| today in the United States, but like, it's obviously
| different than frozen concentrated orange juice... can we
| not at least agree on that pretty tame assumption? Or is
| this just some semantics race to non-meaning?
|
| Iron ore is similar physically, but it's really just a raw
| input material/ingredient used for heavy industrial
| manufacturing and production, it's never been intended to
| be an appreciating asset/hedge against inflation.
|
| I'm unfamiliar with whatever tax is being referred to in
| this specific comment thread, but I'd be curious how
| something like $SIVR is handled, considering it's backed by
| actual silver in vaults. That could lead to some unintended
| consequences if the investment plans of a lot of money
| suddenly changes how it's being allocated.
| dmos62 wrote:
| Is taxing investment absurd?
| kyboren wrote:
| "Tax what you want less of."
|
| Do you want less investment?
| mapontosevenths wrote:
| Gold is not an investment. It takes otherwise productive
| capital out of the economy and produces nothing. It's
| functionally no different than stuffing your money in a
| mattress.
| kajecounterhack wrote:
| It has utility though: unlike the dollars in your
| mattress, it can't be printed into oblivion by your
| central bank. It is relatively portable, and people have
| flocked to it as a store of value especially during
| periods of socioeconomic instability when assets are
| going down and gov't spending is going up. It's tradeable
| for fiat in any country, so it allows you to bring value
| along if you relocate.
|
| Its price reflects that utility and like any modern
| asset, a lot of speculation. You can speculate on whether
| it's more or less useful given current events -- nothing
| wrong with speculating that it is only going to be
| increasingly useful.
| ahtihn wrote:
| Why would you want to encourage investment in gold?
| pfannkuchen wrote:
| This investment is now taxed more than other types of
| investment. Is sales tax charged when you buy stock? Should
| it be?
| 15155 wrote:
| https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary/?BillNumber=1386&Year=202.
| ..
| robotresearcher wrote:
| Gold hasn't been money since 1971.
| AlotOfReading wrote:
| The way you've written it sounds like taxing unmonetized
| bullion is insane overreach, but is it? They're just treating
| them the same as any other commodities. I can understand if
| you're opposed to sales taxes generally, but the only reason to
| single out bullion for an exception I can see is historic
| norms.
|
| They're also applying a tax to monetized bullion. That's more
| more like taxing currency exchanges and it's a bit weird since
| currency exchanges are normally taxed on appreciation.
| nerdsniper wrote:
| We do not charge sales tax when you exchange Dollars for
| Euros. Bullion advocates argue that exchanging dollars for
| physical gold is a currency exchange rather than a
| consumption purchase.
|
| If you were to turn that bullion into an actual product like
| jewelry, then it would be taxed.
|
| When a firm with tank capacity takes delivery of an oil
| contract they secured via the CBRE, do they pay sales tax on
| that? No, because it's intended for resale.
|
| Unmonetized gold bullion is similarly generally intended for
| resale. Generally no one is "consuming" gold bullion.
| 15155 wrote:
| Buy and keep it elsewhere? Buy futures?
| ortusdux wrote:
| The law covers "monetized bullion" - bars and coins
| -https://dor.wa.gov/education/industry-guides/jewelry-
| stores/...
| roenxi wrote:
| In English-speaking countries, we have a system that prints
| money and gives it to asset owners. Gold is still an asset, so
| buying it will still let people participate in that system.
| Increasing taxes by whatever (I'll assume 10%) is material but
| it doesn't remove any point, just makes it a bit less
| attractive. It could easily be a less risky play than investing
| in US bonds given that they can't pay them back in real terms.
| Imustaskforhelp wrote:
| I knew that Silver prices were going all time high but I had
| still assumed that Silver (and to that extent Gold) were stable.
|
| Looks like atleast for Silver, that gets completely thrown out of
| the window now for some time.
|
| I also thought Gold was a safe haven but I checked and it seems
| that it lost (10%?)-ish as well.
|
| I have some complex thoughts and reasonings but I really liked
| Gold as an idea but looks like it is vulnerable to volatility at
| times too.
|
| I used to think that maybe banks can have gold itself and gold
| usually does or ~ equal to inflation itself rise and I mean
| theoretically net I think even this year it does definitely beat
| Inflation (I mean it grew double I guess in 1 year) but for
| banking concerns especially supposing someone got money this time
| and let's hypothetically assume they get into this gold bank,
| then its still volatile & they could've lost 10% and then tried
| to withdraw money and more short squeeze so the idea has a major
| flaw after this incident.
|
| I wonder how swiss franc is doing. I looked at it and it looks
| like its doing fine (1% down but I do feel like that's really
| okay) given how Swiss franc (seeing another cnbc article or yahoo
| finance ig) grew what 13-14%
|
| Although the problem with people holding swiss franc is that when
| I searched swiss franc I found this article (from CNBC itself)
| which actually shows how a strong swiss franc might be/is bad for
| swiss economy
|
| https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/swiss-franc-us-dollar-price-...
|
| I do wonder, then what's the ideal solution of "safety"
|
| I am scratching a lot of options now & I am either thinking US
| inflation protected assets or World Equity are the only two
| stable/(really valuable) because the whole essense of value
| behind gold/silver was its stability which especially for silver
| feels broken but gold isn't that far behind either.
|
| Although atleast in my original context of banking, I later came
| to know about the concept of narrow banking and how there was a
| bank which actually wanted to invest in TIPS itself but that was
| blocked off by the feds for many reason.
|
| I do feel like TIPS might protect inflation protection but they
| don't really protect the erosion of wealth because I feel like (I
| am not sure I can be wrong I usually am) but the pricing of
| houses and other assets are rising higher than inflation rises &
| inflation itself can vary depending (so housing rent inflation
| might be higher) & depending on your lifestyle. Maybe TIPS really
| wouldn't be able to help you to say.. save to get house or really
| have you give the ability for money to do what it actually does.
| To me the idea of inflation includes buying houses too so if say
| someone with some salary was able to buy a house 20 years ago
| then imo when I consider inflation protection or investing or
| anything in general, I expect that my wealth could be able to buy
| me things ~generally at a good amount & that's the point of good
| investing to get good returns at understandable/ your own risk
| profile.
|
| I guess now I am personally more inclined towards world index
| funds in general I guess as a form of real stability where value
| gains are still backed by real gains (Something which I feel is
| core philosophy of the bogle philosphy & the reason why people
| should invest in first place)
|
| I may have gotten a bit off topic here but coming on the point
| again here about Silver.
|
| Would this be considered as (expected?) or is it a black swan
| event especially considering the 30% fall off.
|
| From the headline, it feels like a black swan event (especially
| when they compare it to 1980's) but I am curious to know what
| others think too. I do feel like these black swan events really
| shift how we think tho & we can have it in our better judgement
| for future ig imo.
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| "Safe haven" and "lost 10% in one day (that it gained the
| previous week)" are not contradictory. "Safe haven" is "will
| retain value even if the dollar becomes worthless".
| int32_64 wrote:
| Crypto markets won in the sense that every single asset class can
| somehow trade like a memecoin now.
| jmyeet wrote:
| This isn't a simple correction. I've been following this for a
| couple of months and there's a lot going on. I suspect this isn't
| over. It's noteworthy that the year 1980 because that was when
| the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market. It's often
| used as an example of the market correcting itself. It's actually
| a better example of how the exchanges broke the Hunt brothers to
| bail out the banks.
|
| The key event that caused the collapse is sometimes called Silver
| Thursday [1]. The exchange changed the liquidity rules, forcing a
| margin call the Hunt brothers couldn't make, forcing a selloff.
| This was arguably to bail out banks with large short positions in
| silver.
|
| Well, pretty much the exact same thing happened this week when
| COMEX massively increased the margin requirements [2]. It's worth
| noting that the market is in a state called "backwardation" where
| the spot prices are higher than future prices. Refiners aren't
| buying silver, even at the inflated spot price, because of price
| risk. But also, the COMEX spot price is increasingly being viewed
| as "fake" because foreign exchanges are paying significantly more
| for physical silver thna the paper COMEX price [3].
|
| Basically, this whole thing looks like another GameStop ie a
| short squeeze. There's not enouugh physical silver to meet
| contract demands. There's like 300oz of futures silver contracts
| per 1oz of physical silver.
|
| If you followed the original GameStop short squeeze, the price
| tumbled there too but didn't solve the short squeeze. You even
| have exchanges closing people's options positions (eg RobinHood)
| despite them being in the money.
|
| Banks still need to cover their significant short positions and
| it really looks like the exchanges are trying to crash the silver
| market to do it.
|
| [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
|
| [2]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-28/cme-
| raise...
|
| [3]: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4861917-why-silver-
| prices-i...
| alunchbox wrote:
| This is the answer; Diamond hands baby
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| I think that a real bubble requires margin. It's not just that
| people are buying because the price is going up, it's that
| people are buying _with borrowed money_ because the price is
| going up.
|
| That ends badly. It ends badly for the lenders. So when it
| starts to look like that's what's happening, a perfectly
| reasonable response is to change the margin requirements. When
| the circumstances are normal, use the normal margin
| requirements. But when the circumstances are abnormal, of
| course they should adjust.
| dsolo777 wrote:
| so how long do you think will this play out? asking as a
| concerned silver and gold holder lol
| daedrdev wrote:
| Silver has plenty of industrial uses. Very little has changed in
| industry to cause demand or supply shifts to match the massive
| price swings. Thus a lot of this is probably meme investors
| gambling
| fdr wrote:
| Fun fact about silver, besides its heavy industrial footprint,
| which you mentioned: the supply is dominated by Mexico. There
| have been some, uh, erratic words about Mexico from the people
| in the position to affect trade policy and foreign policy.
| xingped wrote:
| China decided to subject silver to export controls similar to
| rare earth metals. That's one of the big reasons for the silver
| growth.
| tim333 wrote:
| It still up an awful lot from the start of 2025. From about 30 up
| to 115 and down to 85.
| nitwit005 wrote:
| Yep, I expect a bunch of people to buy at this price, hoping
| it's the bottom, but it still has plenty of room to fall.
| thrawa8387336 wrote:
| *Paper silver. The gap widens
| kleiba wrote:
| Sure, but compare the price of silver to a year ago...
| vr46 wrote:
| What goes up quickly comes down quickly?
|
| At least we can afford nice things again
| oytis wrote:
| Is there any good explanation for what is happening with gold
| prices long-term? If you look at 5-10 year charts it was pretty
| stable and started to look like NVIDIA stocks since 2023.
| andrewpedelty wrote:
| This article does a reasonable job of laying out some of the
| drivers:
|
| https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketmi...
| g-mork wrote:
| https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/everything-you-need-to-k...
| sparrish wrote:
| It'll recover that 30%+ within a week or two.
| nozzlegear wrote:
| At least there's still money in the speculative Pokemon card
| market!
|
| /s
| deadbabe wrote:
| A friend had taken out a second mortgage to buy a ton of silver
| at the highs, they are not doing good. His wife doesn't know.
| pfannkuchen wrote:
| Top is in if true.
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