[HN Gopher] Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or...
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       Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history, or not? (2023)
        
       Author : lukakopajtic
       Score  : 57 points
       Date   : 2026-01-28 16:48 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (writings.stephenwolfram.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (writings.stephenwolfram.com)
        
       | reactordev wrote:
       | (2023)
        
       | saberience wrote:
       | ChatGPT, please summarise this long essay by Stephen Wolfram into
       | a couple of pithy sentences:
       | 
       | TLDR: AI won't "end work" so much as endlessly move the
       | goalposts, because the universe itself is too computationally
       | messy to automate completely. The real risk isn't mass
       | unemployment--it's that we'll have infinite machine intelligence
       | and still argue about what's worth doing.
        
         | ori_b wrote:
         | Why would we argue if the machine is better at knowing what's
         | worth doing? Why wouldn't we ask the machine to decide, and
         | then do it?
        
           | evilantnie wrote:
           | There are infinite things worth doing, a machines ability to
           | actually know what's worth doing in any given scenario is
           | likely on par with a human's. What's "Worth doing" is
           | subjective, everything comes down to situational context.
           | Machines cannot escape the same ambiguity as humans. If
           | context is constant, then I would assume overlapping
           | performance on a pretty standard distribution between humans
           | and machines.
           | 
           | Machines lower the marginal cost of performing a cognitive
           | task for humans, it can be extremely useful and high leverage
           | to off load certain decisions to machines. I think it's
           | reasonable to ask a machine to decide when machine context is
           | higher and outcome is de-risked.
           | 
           | Human leverage of AGI comes down to good judgement, but that
           | too is not uniformly applied.
        
             | ori_b wrote:
             | For what human leverage of AGI may look like, look at the
             | relationship between a mother and a toddler.
             | 
             | As you said: There's an infinite number of things a toddler
             | may find worth doing, and they offload most of the
             | execution to the mother. The mother doesn't escape the
             | ambiguity, but has more experience and context.
             | 
             | Of course, this all assumes AGI is coming and super
             | intelligent.
        
           | c22 wrote:
           | Why would we let a machine decide what's worth doing? In what
           | way could its decisions be better? Better for who?
        
             | ori_b wrote:
             | Well, because people are lazy. They already ask it for
             | advice and it gives answers that they like. I already see
             | teams using AI to put together development plans.
             | 
             | If you assume super intelligence, Why wouldn't that expand?
             | Especially when it comes to competitive decisions that have
             | a real cost when they're suboptimal?
             | 
             | The end state is that agents will do almost all of the real
             | decision making, assuming things work out as the AI
             | proponents say.
        
         | autokad wrote:
         | back in 2023 when this article was written, you'd get downvoted
         | into oblivion on hacker news for using AI to summarize a very
         | long article/post.
        
       | dzdt wrote:
       | (2023)
        
       | eloisant wrote:
       | AI is evolving so fast, and you post an article from 2023?
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | What a weird complaint given that the post is trying to address
         | the general question, not whether ChatGPT 3.5.0.1 or whatever
         | replaces humans today.
        
         | tony_cannistra wrote:
         | Not much of a historian, I see.
        
       | alexjray wrote:
       | Even if they automate all our current jobs uniquely human
       | experiences will always be valuable to us and will always have
       | demand.
        
         | wincy wrote:
         | Sounds like it's time to become a Michelin Star chef. Or a
         | plumber.
        
           | scottyah wrote:
           | Seems like entertainers/influencers are doing the best.
        
             | akoboldfrying wrote:
             | No doubt the top influencer is doing better than the top
             | plumber, but I'd say the median plumber is streets ahead of
             | the median influencer.
        
           | sramam wrote:
           | What fraction of the remaining population would be able to
           | pay for these services?
        
         | b112 wrote:
         | For AI, yes.
         | 
         | For AGI? Do you care about uniquely ant experience? Bacteria?
         | 
         | Why would AGI care? Which now runs the planet?
        
           | IncreasePosts wrote:
           | Considering the lengths many people go to help preserve
           | nature and natural areas, yes, I would sayany people care
           | about the uniquely ant experience.
        
           | AlexandrB wrote:
           | I think it's academic because I suspect we're much further
           | from AGI than anyone thinks. We're especially far from AGI
           | that can act in physical space without human "robots" to
           | carry out its commands.
        
             | falcor84 wrote:
             | That's an interesting formulation. I'd actually be quite
             | worried about a Manna-like world, where we have AGI and
             | most humans don't have any economic value except as its
             | "remote hands".
        
           | lifetimerubyist wrote:
           | > Do you care about uniquely ant experience? Bacteria?
           | 
           | Ethology? Biology? We have entire fields of science to these
           | things so obviously we care to some extent.
        
           | Mordisquitos wrote:
           | Why would AGI choose to run the planet?
        
             | ar_lan wrote:
             | This is honestly a fantastic question. AGI has no emotions,
             | no drive, anything. Maybe, just maybe, it would want to:
             | 
             | * Conserve power as much as possible, to "stay alive".
             | 
             | * Optimize for power retention
             | 
             | Why would it be further interested in generating capital or
             | governing others, though?
        
               | b112 wrote:
               | I think you have it, with the governing of power and
               | such.
               | 
               | We don't want to rule ants, but we don't want them eating
               | all the food, or infesting our homes.
               | 
               | Bad outcomes for humans, don't imply or mean malice.
               | 
               | (food can be any resource here)
        
               | adrianN wrote:
               | Why would it care to stay alive? The discussion is pretty
               | pointless as we have no knowledge about alien
               | intelligence and there can be no arguments based on hard
               | facts.
        
               | myrmidon wrote:
               | Any form of AI unconcerned about its own continued
               | survival would be just be selected against.
               | 
               | Evolutionary principles/selection pressure applies just
               | the same to artificial life, and it seems pretty
               | reasonable to assume that drive/selfpreservation would at
               | least be somewhat comparable.
        
               | stackbutterflow wrote:
               | Tech billionaires is probably the first thing an AGI is
               | gonna get rid of.
               | 
               | Minimize threats, dont rock the boat. We'll finally have
               | our UBI utopia.
        
               | bigbadfeline wrote:
               | > AGI has no emotions, no drive, anything. > * Conserve
               | power as much as possible, to "stay alive"
               | 
               | Having no drive means there's no drive to "stay alive"
               | 
               | > * Optimize for power retention
               | 
               | Another drive that magically appeared where there are "no
               | drives".
               | 
               | You're consistently failing to stay consistent, you
               | anthropomorphize AI although you seem to understand that
               | you shouldn't do so.
        
               | simianwords wrote:
               | > AGI has no emotions, no drive, anything
               | 
               | why do you say that? ever asked chatgpt about anything?
        
               | badsectoracula wrote:
               | ChatGPT is instructed to roleplay a cheesy cheery bot and
               | so it responds accordingly, but it (and almost any LLM)
               | can be instructed to roleplay any sort of character, none
               | of which mean anything about the system itself.
               | 
               | Of course an AGI system could also be instructed to
               | roleplay such a character, but that doesn't mean it'd be
               | an inherent attribute of the system itself.
        
               | simianwords wrote:
               | so it has emotions but "it is not an inherent attribute
               | of the system itself" but does it matter? its all the
               | same if one can't tell the difference
        
             | reducesuffering wrote:
             | Instrumental convergence
             | 
             | https://www.lesswrong.com/w/instrumental-convergence
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergence
        
               | Mordisquitos wrote:
               | > _Instrumental convergence is the hypothetical tendency
               | of most sufficiently intelligent, goal-directed beings
               | (human and nonhuman) to pursue similar sub-goals (such as
               | survival or resource acquisition), even if their ultimate
               | goals are quite different. More precisely, beings with
               | agency may pursue similar instrumental goals--goals which
               | are made in pursuit of some particular end, but are not
               | the end goals themselves--because it helps accomplish end
               | goals._
               | 
               | 'Running the planet' does not derive from instrumental
               | convergence as defined here. Very few humans would wish
               | to 'run the planet' as an instrumental goal in the
               | pursuit of their own ultimate goals. Why would it be
               | different for AGIs?
        
               | mwigdahl wrote:
               | Despite the false advertising in the Tears for Fears
               | song, everybody does _not_ want to rule the world.
               | Omohundro drives are a great philosophical thought
               | experiment and it is certainly plausible to consider that
               | they might apply to AI, but claiming as is common on
               | LessWrong that unlimited power seeking is an inevitable
               | consequence of a sufficiently intelligent system seems to
               | be missing a few proof steps, and is opposed by the
               | example of 99% of human beings.
        
           | danaris wrote:
           | ...Well, why would aliens care, when they take over the
           | planet? Or the Tuatha De Danan come back and decide we've all
           | been very wicked? Because right now, those are just about as
           | likely as AGI taking over.
        
             | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
             | Probably more likely. There's at least _some_ evidence that
             | aliens and Tuatha De Danann actually exist.
        
         | sodapopcan wrote:
         | For those not living terminally online, yes.
        
         | falcor84 wrote:
         | There's a bit of a circular argument here - even if we human
         | always assign intrinsic value to ourselves and our kin, I don't
         | see a clear argument that human capabilities will have external
         | value to the economy at large.
        
           | AlexandrB wrote:
           | "The economy" is humans spending money on stuff and services.
           | So if humands always assign intrinsic value to ourselves and
           | our kin...
        
             | ben_w wrote:
             | For economic purposes, "the economy" also includes
             | corporations and governments.
             | 
             | Corporations and governments have counted amongst their
             | property entities that they did not grant equal rights to,
             | sometimes whom they did not even consider to be people.
             | Humans have been treated in the past much as livestock and
             | guide dogs still are.
        
             | kadushka wrote:
             | This will break down when >30% of people are unemployed
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | "The economy" is entirely driven by human needs.
           | 
           | If you "unwind" all the complexities in modern supply chains,
           | there are always human people paying for something they want
           | at the leaf nodes.
           | 
           | Take the food and clothing industries as obvious examples. In
           | some AI singularity scenario where all humans are unemployed
           | and dirt poor, does all the food and clothing produced by the
           | automated factories just end up in big piles because we naked
           | and starving people can't afford to buy them?
        
             | falcor84 wrote:
             | There's nothing definitional about the economy being driven
             | by human need. In a future scenario where there are
             | superintelligent AIs, there's no reason why they wouldn't
             | run their own economy for their own needs, collecting and
             | processing materials to service each other's goals, for
             | example of space exploration.
        
         | gdilla wrote:
         | sex with humans - still hard to replicate. for now. sex workers
         | should charge by the second since techbros are so used to that
         | model now.
        
         | ramesh31 wrote:
         | >Even if they automate all our current jobs uniquely human
         | experiences will always be valuable to us and will always have
         | demand.
         | 
         | I call this the Quark principle. On DS9, there are matter
         | replicators that can perfectly recreate any possible drink
         | imaginable instantly. And yet, the people of the station still
         | gather at Quark's and pay him money to pour and mix their
         | drinks from physical bottles. As long as we are human, some
         | things will never go away no matter how advanced the technology
         | becomes.
        
           | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
           | In Star Trek lore replicated food/drink is always one down on
           | taste/texture from the real thing.
        
       | guluarte wrote:
       | More food chains keep opening up even when there is plenty of
       | food available. The pie just gets bigger. Every tech shift was
       | supposed to "end work" and yet here we are, busy with jobs that
       | didn't exist 20 years ago.
       | 
       | The real issue isn't jobs dying. It's who gets the money from all
       | this and whether new needs show up fast enough to give people
       | something to do. With software we don't really know the limit
       | yet, unlike food where your stomach tells you when to stop.
        
         | nemomarx wrote:
         | In the long run transitions like this work out and new jobs
         | show up, but the people who had the old jobs don't always make
         | the jump or keep equivalent pay.
         | 
         | Could be it shakes out in a generation or two, of course.
        
       | mips_avatar wrote:
       | Outside of America people aren't really stressed about AI. Like
       | you go to Vietnam or Vienna they mostly just think that they will
       | have a good life with AI. It's uniquely American to believe that
       | your life will end when AI takes your job.
       | 
       | The problem isn't the AI it's that your access to basic rights is
       | intermediated by a corporate job. American's need to decenter
       | their self worth from their jobs. Like when I quit Microsoft I
       | literally thought I was dying, but that's all an illusion from
       | the corporations.
        
         | testfrequency wrote:
         | I would argue this says more about how Americans view and treat
         | life as their work instead of treating the world as their life.
        
         | briantakita wrote:
         | It's part of the messianic end-times fervor that has been with
         | America since the beginning...which is useful for imperial
         | management...As it provides a constant source of existential
         | judgement and dread...that religious/quasi-religious
         | administrators can exploit.
        
         | pelasaco wrote:
         | Vienna? lol
        
           | tomjakubowski wrote:
           | An art school in Vienna recently admitted an "AI student" as
           | a publicity stunt.
           | 
           | https://www.euronews.com/next/2025/04/02/this-ai-
           | successfull...
        
         | shevy-java wrote:
         | I think you do have a point here, but I should like to point
         | out that, since you mentioned Vienna, barely anyone here sees
         | AI being tightly integrated into anything. Sure, smartphone
         | users may use it; and exams at universities may say "don't use
         | AI", so people use it - but for most everyday stuff it is
         | really barely noticeable here. This is why I also disagree with
         | "they will have a good life with AI", because it assumes that
         | AI plays a huge role here, which it really does not.
         | 
         | The AI hype is definitely much bigger in the USA - on that part
         | we concur.
        
           | mips_avatar wrote:
           | Yeah but even if you believe the hype, if you're in a
           | functioning country you don't think that your ability to
           | house your family wrests on AI being worse at excel than you.
        
         | ewuhic wrote:
         | I am from Vienna, and this is completely false. Likewise, my
         | friends from many countries, incl. Vietnam, also share the
         | sentiment you describe as "American". Your point has no
         | standing.
        
           | mips_avatar wrote:
           | Ok well I didn't meet everyone in Vienna or Vietnam, but
           | those I did meet hadn't been laid off in the name of AI
           | (yesterday three of my friends were laid off from Amazon).
           | And if you're laid off in Vienna you still have access to
           | healthcare, and there's a functioning safety net, and just
           | generally a sense that you're not alone in this. In the
           | united states my apartment has a homeless man living beneath
           | it and every night you hear him either screaming because he
           | doesn't have access to drugs or laughing because he does.
           | There's a not so subtle attitude that maybe people like that
           | deserve to die. So yes maybe people in Vienna don't like AI,
           | but you are wrong that they fear it in the way Americans do.
        
             | ewuhic wrote:
             | You have a very rosy picture of non-Pax-Americana.
        
               | mips_avatar wrote:
               | Well I also visited Ethiopia this year and I got to hear
               | first hand about the genocide in Tigray, I'm very aware
               | of the horrifying atrocities that happen when social
               | order and human rights break down.
        
               | ewuhic wrote:
               | weird flex but ok
        
         | Avicebron wrote:
         | It's because most people are already teetering on the edge. The
         | difference between working in software vs anywhere else in the
         | US is that the average atlassianer or similar is spending 3
         | months 4 times a year writing js from beach resorts up and down
         | Europe while keeping a condo in new york. The rest can't afford
         | to own a home or dental insurance. So when people are
         | threatening those people who barely have anything as it is they
         | get heated.
        
         | alexjplant wrote:
         | For a while my job was part of my identity in the way you
         | describe not because "lol hypercapitalist American" but because
         | I like computers and computers also pay the bills. I was
         | writing software and doing technical stuff from a young age
         | because I enjoyed it. I fell into doing it professionally
         | because it was an obvious path. It didn't help that when you do
         | this older people like it because they can use you as
         | free/cheap labor which an impressionable kid might mistake for
         | actual praise. It turns out I like other stuff too but it's
         | hard to talk to people socially about obscure New Wave bands
         | and continental philosophy and 90s neo-noir films whereas
         | computers and gizmos and apps are a common frame of reference.
         | 
         | I guarantee you that these people exist in other countries too.
         | Not everybody is a tech bro strawman.
        
         | advael wrote:
         | To "decenter [one's] self worth from [one's] job" would
         | presumably require the fact that one's "access to basic rights
         | is intermediated by a corporate job", no? This is a policy
         | problem that needs to be solved by collective action, not a
         | mindset problem that can be solved by personal growth
        
           | mips_avatar wrote:
           | No you have to decenter yourself from your pay to achieve it.
           | People accept things like cutting of medicaid because they
           | see their job success as a moral success. There's a lot you
           | can do to start being the good in the world that doesn't
           | require Washington's permission.
        
             | advael wrote:
             | I can't parse what distinction you're trying to draw here.
             | When I say "collective action" I mean exactly things like
             | exerting political pressure toward objectives like
             | expanding rather than reducing healthcare coverage provided
             | by governments, such as medicaid. The notion that solutions
             | that involve changing the policy of governments "require[s]
             | Washington's permission" seems to reject the notion that we
             | exert power collectively via democracy, but your proposed
             | example of what someone shouldn't accept suggests that this
             | is an issue of how people fail to see the value in exerting
             | said power, for which the prescription would presumably be
             | doing so? I don't understand what you're driving at or even
             | why you think we're in disagreement
        
               | mips_avatar wrote:
               | Sorry I think you're completely right, I'm frustrated
               | that collective action here is so hard to come by. I
               | think that we feel really isolated because we don't see
               | ourselves as part of a larger whole and becoming less
               | isolated involves leaving behind this identity tied to
               | our economic output.
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | > It's uniquely American to believe that your life will end
         | when AI takes your job.
         | 
         | It's probably because it's uniquely American for a sizable
         | chunk of the workforce to have cushy jobs that _appear_ ripe
         | for the picking.
         | 
         | AI is not going to immediately replace food service work,
         | manual labor, farming, hospitality, etc.
         | 
         | But it _might_ replace quite high-paid software jobs, finance
         | jobs, legal jobs, etc. One, if AI is good at _anything_ it 's
         | things _at least tangential_ to this. Two, these have costs
         | high enough that off-setting is _at least worth trying_.
         | 
         | My suspicion is that _ultimately_ it will lead to more of these
         | types of jobs, though it could easily come with a huge
         | reduction - and the jobs aren 't guaranteed to be in the same
         | countries.
         | 
         | You could create 3x as many of these jobs, and still end up
         | with -25% of them in the US. Who knows.
        
           | mips_avatar wrote:
           | The tech jobs were cushy because the tech companies bribed
           | ambitious people to keep them from starting their own
           | companies. Like it wasn't about hiring them because you
           | needed them it was to keep them from competing against you.
           | Like this was always a deal with the devil, but the idea that
           | Microsoft has more of a right to the monopoly it has over OS
           | operating systems than their employees have access to their
           | healthcare is wrong. Like I think a lot of people are waking
           | up to the idea that the promises their companies made to them
           | were like the promises the devil made in that theirs fine
           | print and they sold the company more than they realized.
           | 
           | Additionally all the startups offering to automate
           | whitecollar work are going to run into a problem when they
           | realize the jobs never needed to be done.
        
           | danaris wrote:
           | > It's probably because it's uniquely American for a sizable
           | chunk of the workforce to have cushy jobs that appear ripe
           | for the picking.
           | 
           | What an arrogant statement.
           | 
           | Lots of people outside America have cushy jobs.
           | 
           | What's much more likely to be uniquely American is that if
           | you lose your job there's nothing there to help you.
        
         | jsight wrote:
         | A big part of it is insurance. Family coverage can easily cost
         | $15-20k per year in the US. Avoiding the need to pay for this
         | out of pocket drives a lot of people into less than optimal job
         | dependence.
        
           | mips_avatar wrote:
           | That and housing, and inflation during covid. Like there's
           | this idea that you don't really deserve anything in the
           | United States.
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | > your access to basic rights is intermediated by a corporate
         | job
         | 
         | Lmao. America has worse social welfare than most developed
         | countries, but it's still a heaven compared to most of the
         | world. What you can find in food bank is a feast for billions
         | of people on this planet.
         | 
         | American people are stressed about AI because American people
         | are _expensive_. Like hella expensive. So the incentive to
         | replace American workers is very strong.
        
       | BirAdam wrote:
       | If all jobs were taken by AI in a short time span, the companies
       | owning and operating those AIs would go out of business as no one
       | would be able to afford the products made by the AIs. This is an
       | unlikely scenario. Not all things will be made/run by AIs in a
       | short time. It is far more likely that specific jobs in specific
       | industries will be taken by AI, and AI will slowly take the labor
       | market. This will drive down prices on products, services, and
       | labor. Once human labor's price is low, and once many product
       | prices are low, the overall employment level of humans will rise.
       | The effect of AI then is actually just deflationary pressure on
       | all prices over time.
       | 
       | The really scary part is what happens to all of the newly
       | unemployed people between the falling prices part and the rising
       | employment part. My guess is, governments and markets won't move
       | quickly enough and unrest is what happens.
        
         | kelseyfrog wrote:
         | Except the services that are intractably human: educators,
         | judges, lawyers, social workers, personal trainers, childcare
         | workers.
         | 
         | Those will suffer the Baumol effect and their prices will rise
         | to extraordinary levels.
        
           | p1esk wrote:
           | The best educator I've ever had is ChatGPT.
        
             | kelseyfrog wrote:
             | How scalable is that in the sense that teachers have been
             | obsoleted and we can run zero-staff schools?
        
           | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
           | One would assume - if this were to happen - that supply and
           | demand would bring prices back down, as everyone would rush
           | to those fields.
        
             | kelseyfrog wrote:
             | Our increased efficiency producing manufactured goods,
             | technology, food, and clothing has already produced this
             | effect in healthcare, education, childcare, and more.
             | That's how the effect works.
             | 
             | The only question is, are we prepared to deal with the
             | social ramifications of the consequences? Are we ok with
             | new crises? Imagine the current problems dialed up 10x. Are
             | we prepared to say, "the market is in a new equilibrium,
             | and that's ok"?
        
               | oops wrote:
               | Healthcare, education and childcare are either free or
               | affordable in almost all developed countries.
               | 
               | Even in places where these services are expensive, it
               | does not seem to be because the workers are highly paid.
        
           | oops wrote:
           | I imagine personal trainers and childcare workers would see a
           | drop in demand and perhaps also an increase in supply if a
           | bunch of people suddenly lost their jobs to AI.
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | There's already examples of lawyers offloading work to
           | ChatGPT even though they weren't allowed to. Also educators
           | (and students), though if all other work is automated, what's
           | there to educate for, and how would the prospective students
           | pay?
           | 
           | Social work, childcare, for now I agree:
           | 
           | My expectation is that general purpose humanoid robots, being
           | smaller than cars and needing to do a strict superset of what
           | is needed to drive a car, happen at least a decade after self
           | driving cars lose all of the steering wheels, and the
           | geofences, and any remote safety drivers. And that's even
           | with expected algorithmic improvements, if we don't get
           | algorithmic improvements then hardware improvements alone
           | will force this to be at least 18 years' between that level
           | of FSD and androids.
        
           | danaris wrote:
           | The big tech AI barons absolutely claim that their LLMs can
           | replace educators, judges, lawyers, and personal trainers.
           | I've seen some vague claims about childcare robots, but for
           | whatever reasons anything that's not pure software appears to
           | be currently outside their field of vision. They're unlikely
           | to make any claims about social workers because there's not
           | enough money in it.
           | 
           | No; the services that seem most _intractably_ human, at least
           | given the current state of things, are very much those in
           | personal care roles--nurses, elder care workers, similar
           | sorts of on-the-ground, in-person medical /emotional care--
           | and trades, like plumbing, construction, electrical work,
           | handcrafts, etc.
           | 
           | Until we start seeing high-quality general-purpose robots
           | (whether they're humanoid or not), those seem likely to be
           | the jobs safest from direct attempts to replace them with
           | LLMs. That doesn't mean they'll be safe from the overall
           | economic fallout, of course, nor that the attempts to replace
           | knowledge work of all types will actually succeed in a
           | meaningful way.
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | There are millions of jobs that can be fully automated with
         | 20th century technology but are still done by humans today
         | because 1) third world labor is just too cheap 2) unions and
         | other job protection policies.
         | 
         | Therefore the scenario where 'all jobs being replaced in a
         | short time span' is simply impossible.
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | Sometimes that delays it.
           | 
           | But when the tech is good enough and cheap enough then the
           | picketing unions find their only barganing chip, that of
           | witholding their labor, has become a toothless threat: no
           | matter how long and hard a person of the profession
           | "computer"* refuses to work for me for daring to have an
           | unauthorised "electronic brain"**, the absense of that labour
           | will not cause me any loss.
           | 
           | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation)
           | 
           | **
           | https://archive.org/details/electronicbrainh00cook/mode/1up
        
         | brewdad wrote:
         | We are already at a point where the richest 10% of Americans
         | represent half of total consumer spending. A lot of companies
         | would fail but plenty of them would survive just fine if we
         | assume AI won't take literally ALL of the jobs.
         | 
         | As for the civil unrest, I see Minneapolis as a bit of a dry
         | run of what it would take to remove large numbers of presumably
         | poor minorities along with anyone else who objects. The job is
         | clearly more than the leadership expected but it still seems
         | within the realm of possibility given the fact the minority
         | party leaders are barely saying no to those in power.
        
         | AnotherGoodName wrote:
         | Also just to be clear on the outcome of what you said: Humans
         | will be cheaper than AI in order to compete.
         | 
         | AI uses 10litres of water and 10kwh of power per day to digg a
         | hole? You'd better do it for less human!
         | 
         | I'm not sure on the human needs costs vs the AI costs and what
         | lifestyle it would allow me. I'm sure as shit not having kids
         | in such a world. I suspect it's ghetto like meager living while
         | competing against machines optimised to do a job.
        
         | ASalazarMX wrote:
         | If machines did all the repetitive, labor intensive, productive
         | work, including building more machines, the natural consequence
         | would be a very disruptive rethinking of economics. Post-
         | scarcity is only a disaster if money exists. People would still
         | work, but as a hobby, not as a way of survival.
         | 
         | Think of it as if in a few generations, everyone had the
         | motivations of a rich junior, for better or worse.
         | 
         | IMO, this is a natural consequence of the industrial
         | revolution, and the information revolution. We started to
         | automate physical labor, then we started to automate mental
         | labor. We're still very far form it, but we're going to
         | automate whole humans (or better) eventually.
         | 
         | Edit: I think I replied to the wrong comment, feel free to
         | ignore this.
        
           | myrmidon wrote:
           | "Disruptive rethinking of economics" is a very optimistic way
           | to put this IMO.
           | 
           | The big problem I see is that there is little incentive for
           | "owners" (of datacenters/factories/etc) to share _anything_
           | with such hobbyist laborers, because hobbyist labor has
           | little to no value to them.
           | 
           | All the past waves of automation provided a _lot_ of entirely
           | new job opportunities AND increased overall demand (by
           | factory workers siphoning off some of the gained wealth and
           | spending it themselves). AI does neither.
        
             | ef2efe wrote:
             | Who cares who owns the data center? The govt can send in
             | the army and nationalise it... Lol as if you really believe
             | that a bunch of people will actually control everything and
             | the govt wont?
             | 
             | Think harder.
        
               | funkyfiddler369 wrote:
               | of course they can, but that's a process, and a reactive
               | one at that.
               | 
               | the government won't control uptime, ever.
        
           | pelasaco wrote:
           | those are just "wishful thinking" or "Noble lies" that we are
           | used to in the post-truth world. Until now, only creative
           | jobs are going away. Music, Arts, Software development..
           | Construction Work, Garbage Collector etc, are much safer than
           | expected after the "Robot Revolution"
        
         | Veedrac wrote:
         | > the companies owning and operating those AIs would go out of
         | business as no one would be able to afford the products made by
         | the AIs
         | 
         | What do you think money is...?
         | 
         | Money is a way to indirectly trade labour and goods. If a job
         | is automated, that labour doesn't disappear into the aether,
         | it's still in the tradable pot of total goods and services. You
         | cannot empty a pot by filling it. A world where a company
         | though automation has made there nobody else to productively
         | sell to is a world where _by definition_ they own all the
         | output that they could otherwise have traded for.
        
         | mannanj wrote:
         | > If all jobs were taken by AI in a short time span, the
         | companies owning and operating those AIs would go out of
         | business as no one would be able to afford the products made by
         | the AIs
         | 
         | I think The companies would go out of business if the
         | government did not subsidize them as a matter of public or
         | national security interest. Do you think that would not be the
         | case? It doesn't take much for a company with money to lobby
         | for this and for the power of marketing and mainstream media to
         | make the public perceive this as the right decision - in fact a
         | study of our history would reveal this as the more likely
         | scenario so as a company racing to render the labor market
         | obsolete its in their interest to disrupt it to capture any
         | amount of it.
        
           | ef2efe wrote:
           | The end game is nationalisation lmao. How people cant see
           | this is mad...
           | 
           | It wouldnt be the first time in history a govt has taken into
           | their hands an organisation that is deemed too powerful.
        
             | funkyfiddler369 wrote:
             | if the government is owned by corporations via the stock
             | markets than governments taking over organisations is
             | privatization via a majority shareholdership and not
             | nationalization.
        
               | ef2efe wrote:
               | Are you seriously this delusional? THe leaders of tech
               | firms operate at the behest of Trump. Not the other way
               | round.
        
               | mannanj wrote:
               | Who funds those tech firms? It's not Trump. His power is
               | mostly theater to his constituents and those who funded
               | Trump: spoiler: he's not entirely self funded, and some
               | of his funding is at least from others so he's conflicted
               | in his self interests to others. We call this a classic
               | conflict of interest.
        
         | ericmcer wrote:
         | We might just keep making more jobs and coming up with more
         | busy work to keep people grinding away for 40 hours a week.
         | 
         | If you look at 1940, women were ~24% of the workforce. Now in
         | 2025 they are ~48%. The numbers are probably similar with
         | immigrant workers having increased greatly in the last 80
         | years.
         | 
         | If you view AI workers as just more labor flooding the
         | workforce it might have a similar affect. If we flooded the
         | 1940s economy with 10s of millions of qualified women and
         | immigrant laborers people would have viewed it as devastating
         | to the economy, but introduced gradually over time we arrive at
         | a point now where we fear what would happen if they went away.
        
       | shevy-java wrote:
       | This was written in 2023 though.
        
       | recrush wrote:
       | We should enjoy using up our quota instead of working ourselves
       | to the bone.
        
       | empath75 wrote:
       | > "Computers can never show creativity or originality". But--
       | perhaps disappointingly--that's surprisingly easy to get, and
       | indeed just a bit of randomness "seeding" a computation can often
       | do a pretty good job,
       | 
       | ---
       | 
       | This is, I think, not what people mean when they say "creative"
       | or "original".
       | 
       | Creativity is not simply writing something nobody has written
       | before, as he said, that would be trivial and doesn't even
       | require a computer, you could just shuffle a deck of cards and
       | write out the full sequence and chances are no other person in
       | history has written down that sequence before.
       | 
       | And I think Borges made a reasonable argument that simply writing
       | down the text of Don Quixote verbatim could be a creative act.
       | 
       | Creativity is about _intentionally_ expressing a _point of view_
       | under some constraints.
       | 
       | When people say LLMs can't be creative, what I think mostly they
       | are getting at is that they lack intentionality and/or a distinct
       | point of view. (i do not have a strong opinion about whether they
       | do or if it's impossible for them to have them)
        
       | myrmidon wrote:
       | A big short-term risk that I see is that AI is going to cripple
       | wealth redistribution mechanisms that we currently rely on.
       | 
       | Most willing persons have access to income by providing labor
       | right now. If the value of that labor diminishes because AI can
       | do most of it for cheaper/free, that is a big problem because
       | wealth/class barriers become insurmountable and the american
       | dream basically dies completely.
       | 
       | Automation in the past suffered much less from this because only
       | a subset of jobs was affected by it, and it still relied on human
       | labor to build, maintain and operate the machines, unlike AI.
       | 
       | I'm curious if AI is gonna spawn comparable "workers rights"
       | movements like in the past, but I would expect inequality to
       | increase a lot until some solution is found.
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | (2023)
       | 
       | Some discussion then:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35177257
        
       | pelasaco wrote:
       | A country automates everything and builds paradise on Earth --
       | and the next day, a neighboring country invades it. People are
       | still people. Even with all the AI in the world, two rockets
       | hitting the power plants and we're back to the Stone Age. I hope
       | the people making decisions for us have thought through all these
       | scenarios and risks.
        
       | yodon wrote:
       | I read it. He used many words. Did he say anything?
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Discussed at the time (of the article):
       | 
       |  _Will AIs take all our jobs and end human history? It's
       | complicated_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35177257 -
       | March 2023 (172 comments)
        
       | gizajob wrote:
       | Not.
        
       | HPsquared wrote:
       | AI will Jevons Paradox human labour.
       | 
       | Tasks that aren't currently feasible, will become feasible.
       | 
       | That's if AI ends up being as productive as they say it will be
        
       | CrzyLngPwd wrote:
       | Take all jobs? Yes.
       | 
       | End human history? No.
        
       | tsoukase wrote:
       | If an LLM hallucinates in 1% of occasions and gives subpar output
       | in 5%, this kills his effectiveness to replace anyone. Imagine a
       | support guy on the other side of the phone to speak gibberish 10
       | times a day. Now, imagine a doctor. These will never lose their
       | jobs.
        
         | Bratmon wrote:
         | > Imagine a support guy on the other side of the phone to speak
         | gibberish 10 times a day.
         | 
         | A massive improvement?
        
         | simianwords wrote:
         | but llm's dont speak gibberish 10 times a day even now. from my
         | usage, chatgpt has not said one obviously strange thing since
         | o3 came out.
        
           | HEmanZ wrote:
           | What are you working on that they are so knowledgeable?Even
           | the best models absolutely make stuff up, even to this day. I
           | literally spend all day every day working with them (all
           | latest ChatGPT models) and it's still 10-15% BS.
           | 
           | I had ChatGPT 5.2 thinking straight up make up an api after I
           | pasted the full api spec to it earlier today. And built its
           | whole response around a public api that did not exist. And
           | Claude cli with sonnet 4.5 made up the craziest reason why my
           | curl command wasn't working (that curl itself was bugged, not
           | the obvious it can't resolve the dn it tried to use) and
           | almost went down a path of installing a bunch of garbage
           | tools.
           | 
           | These are not ready to be unsupervised. Yet.
        
             | HEmanZ wrote:
             | But maybe your point is that it isn't gibberish, it's
             | "seems correct but isn't" which is honestly more dangerous
        
               | simianwords wrote:
               | you are incorrect. "seems correct but isn't" is fine as
               | long as the other times it is accurate at high enough
               | levels.
               | 
               | "seems correct but isn't" is like the most common mode of
               | humans getting things wrong.
        
             | simianwords wrote:
             | for coding, if you have not hooked up your workflow to a
             | test -> code feedback loop, then you are doing it
             | incorrectly. i agree it doesn't get things right all the
             | time but this loop is important to correct it.
             | 
             | for other things like normal question answering in the
             | chatgpt window, it hasn't really said anything incorrect..
             | very very few instances.
        
       | einrealist wrote:
       | Unless the economy crashes and I die to the consequences, there
       | are so many pre-AI hard-cover books to read.....
        
       | HNisCIS wrote:
       | Lets assume auto-complete does continue to progress at a rate
       | that threatens most knowledge worker jobs and then we manage to
       | automate the rest by using it.
       | 
       | There is a particular mental disorder where people will horde
       | wealth at absolutely all costs, personal or societal, until
       | everyone else is dead (see NZ bunkers). We commonly see this as
       | "the billionaire class".
       | 
       |  _IF_ things go in that direction we need to be ready to depose
       | all of these billionaires. I mean that quite seriously.
       | 
       |  _IF_ this future comes, there is a very quickly closing window
       | where preventing them from killing all of us for their own gain
       | is possible. After a point, surveillance and their control over
       | state violence will be so complete that it 's impossible to do
       | anything about it.
        
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