[HN Gopher] AI is a horse (2024)
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       AI is a horse (2024)
        
       Author : zdw
       Score  : 438 points
       Date   : 2026-01-20 00:20 UTC (3 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (kconner.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (kconner.com)
        
       | tetris11 wrote:
       | It's also a big bloatey gas bag that needs constant de-farting to
       | function
        
         | omgsharks wrote:
         | So essentially a cow?
        
           | krige wrote:
           | Oh horses fart _a lot_ too.
        
             | direwolf20 wrote:
             | Horses poop a lot. _A lot._
        
               | Xunjin wrote:
               | I had to search about and it's indeed a lot:
               | 
               | "it is quite normal for a horse to poo (defecate) 8-12
               | times a day and produce anywhere from 13 to 23 kilograms
               | of poo a day."
               | 
               | Source: https://www.ranvet.com.au/horse-poo/
        
               | Sharlin wrote:
               | That's what you get when your primary source of nutrition
               | is very calorie-poor and largely indigestible.
        
               | rrr_oh_man wrote:
               | Yup. I've noticed that with my dog going to meat from
               | kibble. Poop sizes reduced by 80%.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_horse_manure_crisis_o
               | f_1...
        
               | Almondsetat wrote:
               | More than pooping a lot, they literally cannot hold it.
               | Humans don't poop that much, but imagine if everyone just
               | did it on the floor at a moment's notice regardless of
               | where they are
        
               | recursive wrote:
               | So Red Dead Redemption 2 was actually realistic? I always
               | wondered why the horses were pooping _all the time_. It
               | 's because of AI.
        
       | smitty1e wrote:
       | "I've been through the desert
       | 
       | On AI with no name
       | 
       | It felt good to be out of the rAIn
       | 
       | In the desert, you can remember your name
       | 
       | 'Cause there ain't no one for to give you no pain"
        
         | direwolf20 wrote:
         | you forgot to write pAIn and it reminded me of this:
         | https://youtube.com/watch?v=nt9mRDa0nrc
        
           | Dilettante_ wrote:
           | >2 views
           | 
           | I'm not saying that's _your_ video but it sure looks like
           | that 's _your video_ ;)
        
             | direwolf20 wrote:
             | First search result. This one has 734:
             | https://youtube.com/watch?v=45_HJkoDxpQ
        
       | deafpolygon wrote:
       | Or your typical American teenager.
        
       | jonplackett wrote:
       | All true apart you can only lead it to water - it drinks ALL the
       | water regardless of anything else.
        
         | eightys3v3n wrote:
         | Except when you want it to improve something in a particular
         | way you already know about. Then god forbid it understands what
         | you have asked and makes only that change :/
         | 
         | Some times I end up giving up trying to get the AI to build
         | something following a particular architecture or fixing a
         | particular problem in it's provious implementations.
        
       | d--b wrote:
       | And the salesman always says it's great while it's in fact lame.
        
       | oliwary wrote:
       | "Computers aren't the thing. They're the thing that gets you to
       | the thing."
       | 
       | My favorite quote from the excellent show halt and catch fire.
       | Maybe applicable to AI too?
        
         | latexr wrote:
         | Something like that used to be Apple's driving force under
         | Steve Jobs (definitely no longer under Tim Cook).
         | 
         | https://youtube.com/watch?v=oeqPrUmVz-o&t=1m54s
         | 
         | > You've go to start with the customer experience and work
         | backwards to the technology. You can't start with the
         | technology and try to figure out where you're going to try to
         | sell it.
        
           | automatic6131 wrote:
           | > You can't start with the technology and try to figure out
           | where you're going to try to sell it.
           | 
           | If those LLM addicts could read, they'd be very upset!
        
             | hkt wrote:
             | ChatGPT, tell me how I should feel about this!
        
           | direwolf20 wrote:
           | That works when you are starting a new company from scratch
           | to solve a problem. When you're established and your boffins
           | discover a new thing, of course you find places to use it.
           | It's the expression problem with business: when you add a new
           | customer experience you intersect it with all existing
           | technology, and when you add a new technology you intersect
           | it with all existing customer experience.
        
             | crote wrote:
             | Isn't that why the big tech companies switched to acquiring
             | up-and-coming scaleups?
        
             | torginus wrote:
             | Apple was a well established company when they came out
             | with the iPhone - I don't think anyone but Jobs would've
             | been able to pull off something like that.
             | 
             | That sort of comprehensive innovation (hardware, software,
             | UX - Apple invented everything), while entering an
             | unfamilar and established market, I'd argue would've been
             | impossible to do in a startup.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | He had a customer experience in mind, so he found the
               | intersection with every existing technology, and it was
               | impressive. But there are also times when you add a new
               | technology to your collection, so you find the
               | intersection with every existing customer experience.
        
           | NitpickLawyer wrote:
           | > You can't start with the technology and try to figure out
           | where you're going to try to sell it.
           | 
           | The Internet begs to differ. AI is more akin to the Internet
           | than to any Mac product. We're now in the stage of having a
           | bunch of solutions looking for problems to solve. And this
           | stage of AI is also very very close to the consumer. What
           | took dedicated teams of specialised ML engineers to trial
           | ~5-10 years ago, can be achieved by domain experts / plain
           | users, today.
        
             | monooso wrote:
             | > We're now in the stage of having a bunch of solutions
             | looking for problems to solve.
             | 
             | We've always had that.
             | 
             | In olden times the companies who peddled such solutions
             | were called "a business without a market", or simply "a
             | failing business." These days they're "pre-revenue."
             | 
             | Maybe it will be different this time, maybe it will be
             | exactly the same but a lot more expensive. Time will tell.
        
             | latexr wrote:
             | I think you're missing the point. Of course you can make
             | such a product. As Steve says right after, he himself made
             | that mistake a lot. The point is that to make something
             | great (at several levels of great, not just "makes money")
             | you have to start with the need and build a solution, not
             | have a solution and shoehorn it to a need.
             | 
             | The internet is an entirely different beast and does not at
             | all support your point. What we have on the web is hacks on
             | top of hacks. It was not built to do all the things we push
             | it to do, and if you understand where to look, it shows.
        
           | djmips wrote:
           | I feel like if Jobs was still alive at the dawn of AI he
           | would definitely be doing a lot more than Apple has been -
           | probably would have been an AI leader.
        
             | jayd16 wrote:
             | Jobs also needed to control the user experience. Apple
             | wasn't really a web leader either.
             | 
             | They were able to bootstrap a mobile platform because they
             | could convince themselves they had control of the user
             | experience.
             | 
             | I'm not so sure where AI would land in the turn of the
             | millennium Apple culture.
        
               | rightbyte wrote:
               | > I'm not so sure where AI would land in the turn of the
               | millennium Apple culture.
               | 
               | Instead of doing almost correct email summaries Jobs
               | would have a LLM choose color of the send button with an
               | opaque relationship with the emotional mood of the mail
               | you write.
        
         | BoredomIsFun wrote:
         | > excellent show "halt and catch fire".
         | 
         | I found it very caricature, too saturated with romance - which
         | is untypical for tech environment, much like "big bang theory".
        
           | TacticalCoder wrote:
           | It's still very good I'd say. It shows the relation between
           | big oil and tech: it began in Texas (with companies like
           | Texas Instruments) then shifted to SV (btw first 3D demo I
           | saw on a SGI, running in real time, was a 3D model of... An
           | oil rig). As it spans many years, it shows the Commodore 64,
           | the BBSes, time-sharing, the PC clone wars, the discovery of
           | the Internet, the nascent VC industry etc.
           | 
           | Everything is period correct and then the clothes and cars
           | too: it's all very well done.
           | 
           | Is there a bit too much romance? Maybe. But it's still worth
           | a watch.
        
             | deltoidmaximus wrote:
             | I never really could get into the Cameron/Joe romance, it
             | felt like it was initially inserted to get sexy people
             | doing sexy things onto the show and then had to be a star
             | crossed lovers thing after character tweaks in season 2.
             | 
             | But when they changed the characters to be passionate
             | stubborn people eventually started to cling to each other
             | as they together rode the whirlwind of change the show
             | really found its footing for me. And they did so without
             | throwing away the events of season 1, instead having the
             | 'takers' go on redemption arcs.
             | 
             | My only real complaint after re-watching really was it
             | needed maybe another half season. I think the show should
             | have ended with the .com bust and I didn't like that Joe
             | sort of ran away when it was clear he'd attached himself to
             | the group as his family by the end of the show.
        
           | oliwary wrote:
           | IMO it really came into its own after the first season. S1
           | felt like mad men but with computers, whereas in the latter
           | seasons it focused more on the characters - quite beautiful
           | and sad at times.
        
             | zorked wrote:
             | I vaguely remember that they tried to reboot it several
             | times. So the same crew invented personal computers, BBSes
             | and the Internet (or something like that), but every time
             | they started from being underfunded unknowns. They really
             | tried to make the series work.
        
               | miyoji wrote:
               | That's not really what happens at all. The characters on
               | the show never make the critical discoveries or are
               | responsible for the major breakthroughs, they're
               | competing in markets that they ultimately cannot win in,
               | because while the show is fictional, it also follows real
               | computing history.
               | 
               | (MILD SPOILERS FOLLOW)
               | 
               | For example, in the first season, the characters we
               | follow are not inventing the PC - that has been done
               | already. They're one of many companies making an IBM
               | clone, and they are modestly successful but not
               | remarkably so. At the end of the season, one of the
               | characters sees the Apple Macintosh and realizes that
               | everything he had done was a waste of time (from his
               | perspective, he wanted to change the history of
               | computers, not just make a bundle of cash), he wasn't
               | actually inventing the future, he just thought he was.
               | They also don't really start from being underfunded
               | unknowns in each season - the characters find themselves
               | in new situations based on their past experiences in ways
               | that feel reasonable to real life.
        
             | alt227 wrote:
             | IMO the first series was excellent, the 2nd took a massive
             | downturn and stopped watching after that.
        
             | razakel wrote:
             | The BBC made a docudrama, Micro Men, with Alexander
             | Armstrong as Clive Sinclair and Martin Freeman as Chris
             | Curry.
             | 
             | Sophie Wilson cameos when they have a fight.
        
         | ericmcer wrote:
         | I am really looking forward to that idea catching up with AI.
         | Right now AI is the thing and the products it enables are
         | secondary.
         | 
         | Remember when our job was to hide the ugly techniques we had to
         | use from end users?
        
       | tuyiown wrote:
       | I was expecting a spin about the faster horses
        
       | metalman wrote:
       | Ai is a horse, i get it! I have a horse, and I put money in the
       | front of the horse, and get "ponyium" out the back.
        
         | nemosaltat wrote:
         | Through many attempts to make ingesting the ponyium more
         | bearable, I've found that taking it with more intense flavors
         | (wintergreen mint, hoppy hops, crushed soul, dark roast coffee,
         | etc) improves its comestabilty. Can't let it pile up. We've
         | always eaten ponyium right, and we all like it, right, guys,
         | folks?
        
         | iamkonstantin wrote:
         | I hear the cool companies offer free ponyium to their
         | employees. Apparently, it works wonders for morale
        
       | brador wrote:
       | If an AI aims at the thing we call it hallucinations, when humans
       | do it we call the delusion goal setting.
       | 
       | Either way it is an imagined end point that has no bearing in
       | known reality.
        
       | davidhunter wrote:
       | "No, I am not a horse."
       | 
       | Horse rumours denied.
        
         | egeozcan wrote:
         | That's something a horse pretending to be AI would say.
        
         | Dilettante_ wrote:
         | *sweats profusely* https://imgur.com/a/PszeiAu
        
       | echelon wrote:
       | This micro blog meta is fascinating. I've seen small micro blog
       | content like this popping up on the HN home page almost daily
       | now.
       | 
       | I have to start doing this for "top level"ish commentary. I've
       | frequently wanted to nucleate discussions without being too
       | orthogonal to thread topics.
        
       | croisillon wrote:
       | you rather don't want it in your bed
        
       | retrocog wrote:
       | Some day, I imagine one will be a senator
        
         | hackable_sand wrote:
         | We only have enough budgeted for one joke in 2026 and this is
         | the one.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | AI will be a senator, but only after it's 75 years old.
        
       | georgestrakhov wrote:
       | AI is not a horse (2023) https://essays.georgestrakhov.com/ai-is-
       | not-a-horse/
        
         | baxtr wrote:
         | Maybe AI is a centaur??
        
           | GlobalFrog wrote:
           | Or a reverse-centaur ?
           | https://locusmag.com/feature/commentary-cory-doctorow-
           | revers...
        
           | Sharlin wrote:
           | Or a reverse centaur [1].
           | 
           | [1] https://locusmag.com/feature/commentary-cory-doctorow-
           | revers...
        
           | jeanlucas wrote:
           | Baxtr, JAMES BAXTR? That's the exact comment I'd expect of
           | someone named that.
        
           | Symmetry wrote:
           | After Deep Blue Garry Kapsparav proposed "Centaur Chess"[1]
           | where teams of humans and computers would complete with each
           | other. For about a decade a team like that was superior to
           | either an unaided computer or an unaided AI. These days pure
           | AI teams tend to be much stronger.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_chess
        
             | ffsm8 wrote:
             | How would pure ai ever be "much stronger" in this scenario?
             | 
             | That doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever, it can only
             | be "equally strong", making the approach non-viable because
             | they're not providing any value... But the only way for the
             | human in the loop to add an actual demerit, you'd have to
             | include time taken for each move into the final score,
             | which isn't normal in chess.
             | 
             | But I'm not knowledgeable on the topic, I'm just expressing
             | my surprise and inability to contextualize this claim with
             | my minor experience of the game
        
               | Symmetry wrote:
               | If you had a setup where the computer just did its thing
               | and never waited for the human to provide input but the
               | human still had an unused button they could press to get
               | a chance to say something that might technically count as
               | "centaur", but that isn't really what people mean by the
               | term. It's the delay in waiting for human input that's
               | the big disadvantage centaur setups have when the human
               | isn't really providing any value these days.
        
               | ffsm8 wrote:
               | But why would that be a disadvantage large enough to
               | cause the player to lose, which would be necessary for
               | 
               | > _pure AI teams tend to be much stronger._
               | 
               | Maybe each turn has a time limit, and a human would need
               | "n moments" to make the final judgement call whereas the
               | AI could delay the final decision right to the last
               | moment for it's final analysis? So the pure AI player
               | gets an additional 10-30s to simulate the game
               | essentially?
        
               | plomme wrote:
               | Why? If the human has final say on which play to make I
               | can certainly see them thinking they are proposing a
               | better strategy when they are actually hurting their
               | chances.
        
               | famouswaffles wrote:
               | You can be so far ahead of someone, their input (if you
               | act on it) can only make things worse. That's it. If a
               | human 'teams up' with chess AI today and does anything
               | other than agree with its moves, it will just drag things
               | down.
        
               | ffsm8 wrote:
               | But how specifically in Chess?
               | 
               | These human in the loop systems basically lists possible
               | moves with likelihood of winning, no?
               | 
               | So how would the human be a demerit? It'd mean that the
               | human for some reason decided to always use the option
               | that the ai wouldn't take, but how would that make sense?
               | Then the AI would list the "correct" move with a higher
               | likelihood of winning.
               | 
               | The point of this strategy was to mitigate traps, but
               | this would now have to become inverted: the opponent AI
               | would have to be able to gaslight the human into thinking
               | he's stopping his AI from falling into a trap. While that
               | might work in a few cases, the human would quickly learn
               | that his ability to overrule the optimal choice is
               | flawed, thus reverting it back to baseline where the
               | human is essentially a non-factor and not a demerit
        
               | famouswaffles wrote:
               | >So how would the human be a demerit? It'd mean that the
               | human for some reason decided to always use the option
               | that the ai wouldn't take, but how would that make sense?
               | Then the AI would list the "correct" move with a higher
               | likelihood of winning.
               | 
               | The human will be a demerit any time it's not picking the
               | choice the model would have made.
               | 
               | >While that might work in a few cases, the human would
               | quickly learn that his ability to overrule the optimal
               | choice is flawed, thus reverting it back to baseline
               | where the human is essentially a non-factor and not a
               | demerit
               | 
               | Sure, but it's not a Centaur game if the human is doing
               | literally nothing every time. The only way for a human+ai
               | team to not be outright worse than only ai is for the
               | human to do nothing at all and that's not a team. You've
               | just delayed the response of the computer for no good
               | reason.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | With intelligence of models seeming spikey/lumpy I suspect
             | we'll see tasks and domains fall to AI one at a time. Some
             | will happen quickly and others may take far longer than we
             | expect.
        
         | egeozcan wrote:
         | We don't know it, up to the point we observe it.
        
           | zombot wrote:
           | But since the act of observation influences the object
           | observed, who knows what then becomes of it?
        
           | Almondsetat wrote:
           | AI is a quantum mechanic
        
             | willrshansen wrote:
             | AI is a quantum horse
        
       | gyanchawdhary wrote:
       | this post is aging like milk
        
         | dana321 wrote:
         | https://www.isclaudecodedumb.today/
        
           | gyanchawdhary wrote:
           | Wao
        
       | taneq wrote:
       | I've always said that driving a car with modern driver assist
       | features (lane centering / adaptive cruise / 'autopilot' style
       | self-ish driving-ish) is like riding a horse. The early ones were
       | like riding a short sighted, narcoleptic horse. Newer ones are
       | improving but it's still like riding a horse, in that you give it
       | high level instructions about where to go, rather than directly
       | energising its muscles.
        
       | amelius wrote:
       | A horse that can do your homework.
        
         | einpoklum wrote:
         | Yeah, well... not really.
         | 
         | I used to tell my Into-to-Programming-in-C course students, 20
         | years ago, that they could in principle skip one or two of the
         | homework assignments; and that some students even manage to
         | outsmart us and submit copied work as homework, but - they
         | would just not become able to program if they don't do their
         | homework themselves. "If you want to be able to write software
         | code you have to exercise writing code. It's just that simple
         | and there's no getting around it."
         | 
         | Of course not every discipline is the same. But I can also tell
         | you that if you want to know, say, history - you have to
         | memorize accounts and aspects and highlights of historical
         | periods and processes, and recount them yourself, and check
         | that you got things right. If "the AI" does this for you, then
         | maybe it knows history but you don't.
         | 
         | And that is the point of homework (if it's voluntary of
         | course).
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | To become a programmer you must write code.
           | 
           | To become upper management, just steal other peoples work.
        
       | dmitrijbelikov wrote:
       | Maybe from the client's point of view, although it's more likely
       | a Tamagotchi. But from the server side, it's more like a whole
       | hippodrome where you need to support horse racing 24/7
        
         | MarceliusK wrote:
         | It's a nice reminder that most metaphors break unless you ask
         | whose perspective they're describing
        
       | polmuz wrote:
       | https://polmuz.github.io/2026/01/04/its-a-horse.html
        
       | oytis wrote:
       | That's not from the last week, so obviously is invalid.
        
       | throw310822 wrote:
       | Famously Steve Jobs said that the (personal) computer is "like a
       | bicycle for the mind". It's a great metaphor because- besides the
       | idea of lightness and freedom it communicates- it also described
       | the computer as multiplier of the human strength- the bicycle
       | allows one to travel faster and with much less effort, it's true,
       | but ultimately the source of its power is still entirely in the
       | muscles of the cyclist- you don't get out of it anything that you
       | didn't put yourself.
       | 
       | Bu the feeling I'm having with LLMs is that we've entered the age
       | of fossil-fuel engines: something that moves on its own power and
       | produces somewhat more than the user needs to put into it. Ok, in
       | the current version it might not go very far and needs to be
       | pushed now and then, but the total energy output is greater than
       | what users need to put in. We could call it a horse, except that
       | this is artificial: it's a tractor. And in the last months I've
       | been feeling like someone who spent years pushing a plough in the
       | fields, and has suddenly received a tractor. A primitive model,
       | still imperfect, but already working.
        
         | kylec wrote:
         | A tractor does exactly what you tell it to do though - you turn
         | it on, steer it in a direction, and it goes. I like the horse
         | metaphor for AI better: still useful, but sometimes
         | unpredictable, and needs constant supervision.
        
           | airstrike wrote:
           | So it's clearly a cyborg horse
        
           | throw310822 wrote:
           | The horse metaphor would also do, but it's very tied to the
           | current state of LLMs (which by the way is already far beyond
           | what they were in 2024). It also doesn't capture that horses
           | are what they are, they're not improving and certainly not by
           | a factor of 10, 100 or 1000, while there is almost no limit
           | to the amount of power that an engine can be built to
           | produce. Horses (and oxen) have been available for thousands
           | of years, and agriculture still needed to employ a large
           | percentage of the population. This changed completely with
           | the petrol engines.
        
             | rkagerer wrote:
             | What metrics show 100X or 1000X improvement trends?
        
         | maypop wrote:
         | Having recently watched Train Dreams it feels like the
         | transition of logging by hand to logging with industrial
         | machinery.
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | I've been calling LLMs "electric bicycles for the mind",
         | inspired by that Jobs quote.
         | 
         | - some bicycle purists consider electric bicycles to be
         | "cheating"
         | 
         | - you get less exercise from an electric bicycle
         | 
         | - they can get you places really effectively!
         | 
         | - if you don't know how to ride a bicycle an electric bicycle
         | is going to quickly lead you to an accident
        
           | matthewkayin wrote:
           | I like this analogy. I'll add that, while electric bicycles
           | are great for your daily commute, they're not suited for the
           | extremes of biking (at least not yet).
           | 
           | - You're not going to take an electric bike mountain biking
           | 
           | - You're not going to use an electric bike to do BMX
           | 
           | - You're not going to use an electric bike to go bikepacking
           | across the country
        
             | throw310822 wrote:
             | I think you're kind of missing the point discussing which
             | vehicle compares better to LLMs. The point is not the
             | vehicle: it's the birth of the engine. Before engines,
             | humans didn't have the means to produce those amounts of
             | power- at all. No matter how many people, horses or oxen
             | they had at their disposal.
        
               | cootsnuck wrote:
               | I don't think they're missing the point. I think there's
               | still fundamental disagreements about the functional
               | utility of LLMs.
        
             | chrisweekly wrote:
             | Actually, electric mountain bikes are popular (where
             | they're allowed), mostly because they make ascents so easy.
        
               | masterj wrote:
               | People have definitely used ebikes for bikepacking as
               | well. Not sure about BMX.
        
               | rubenflamshep wrote:
               | They're great when the trails aren't too technical. No so
               | much when they are (as I've learned from personal
               | experience )
        
               | panopticon wrote:
               | I'm curious what your personal experience is.
               | 
               | My eMTBs are just as capable as my manual bikes (similar
               | geometry, suspension, etc). In fact, they make smashing
               | tech trails easier because there's more weight near the
               | bottom bracket which adds a lot of stability.
               | 
               | The ride feel is totally different though. I tend to gap
               | more sections on my manual bike whereas I end up plowing
               | through stuff on the hefty eeb.
        
             | GuinansEyebrows wrote:
             | > You're not going to use an electric bike to do BMX
             | 
             | while there are companies that have made electric BMX
             | bikes, i'd argue that if you're doing actual "BMX" on a
             | motorized bike, it's just "MX" at that point :)
        
             | robrain wrote:
             | Whistlerite here. My Strava stats for last year suggest
             | half and half eMTB and road riding. Tiny bit of fully self-
             | powered MTB work.
             | 
             | As a 56-year old, eBikes are what make mountain biking
             | possible and fun for me.
        
             | fsckboy wrote:
             | > _- You 're not going to take an electric bike mountain
             | biking_
             | 
             | this sounds like a direct quote from Femke Van Den
             | Driessche, who actually took an electric bike mountain
             | biking: big mistake. Did it not perform well? no, actually
             | it performed really well, the problem was, it got her
             | banned from bike racing. Some of the evidence was her
             | passing everybody else on the uphills; the other evidence
             | was a motorized bike in her pit area.
        
           | mjparrott wrote:
           | Not sure how this fits in the analogy, but as a cyclist I
           | would add some people get more exercise by having an electric
           | bicycle. It makes exercise available to more people.
        
             | simonw wrote:
             | I think that fits it really well.
        
             | qwertytyyuu wrote:
             | Motorcycle might be more apt
        
           | hamdingers wrote:
           | - they still fall over if nobody's holding the bars
        
             | koolba wrote:
             | Slamming the brakes and going teeth first into the
             | handlebars.
        
           | koolba wrote:
           | You probably can't repair it yourself either.
        
           | ueeheh wrote:
           | Not convinced with any of three analogies tbh they don't
           | quite capture what is going on like Steve jobs' did.
           | 
           | And frankly all of this is really missing the point - instead
           | of wasting time on analogies we should look at where this
           | stuff works and then reason from there - a general way to
           | make sense of it that is closer to reality.
        
           | aaronharnly wrote:
           | To keep torturing the metaphor, LLMs might be more like those
           | electric unicycles (Onewheel, Inmotion, etc) - quite speedy,
           | can get you places, less exercise, and also sometimes
           | suddenly choke and send you flying facefirst into gravel.
           | 
           | And some people see you whizzing by and think "oh cool", and
           | others see you whizzing by and think "what a tool."
        
             | whattheheckheck wrote:
             | More like the Segway... really cool at first then not
             | really then totally overpriced and failed to revolutionize
             | the industry. And it killed the founder
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | Is there a modern segway? I mean, I find ebikes are
               | probably a better option in general, but it seems like
               | all the pieces to recreate the segway for a much lower
               | price are there already.
               | 
               | Looks like the closest thing is the self balancing stuff
               | that segway makes. Otherwise it's just the scooters.
        
               | boringg wrote:
               | e-skateboards?
        
               | MattGrommes wrote:
               | Just a small correction, the founder of Segway is Dean
               | Kamen who is still alive. It was the then-owner of the
               | company who died.
        
               | bryanrasmussen wrote:
               | thanks saved me googling if Kamen was still alive!
        
               | esafak wrote:
               | It would have been cooler if this comment was by the
               | founder :)
        
               | MattGrommes wrote:
               | Oh boy do I wish I was nearly as cool as Dean Kamen. :)
        
             | superjan wrote:
             | Maybe more like a fatbike for the mind: pretending to cycle
             | with zero effort and exercise.
        
           | pglevy wrote:
           | Moped for the mind has a nice ring to it
        
             | embedding-shape wrote:
             | I feel like both moped and electric bike misses the mark of
             | the initial analogy, so does tractor too. Because they're
             | not able to get good results without someone putting in the
             | work ("energy") at some higher part of the process. It's
             | not "at the push of a button/twist of the wrist" like with
             | electric bikes or mopeds, but being able to know where/how
             | to push actually gets you reliable results. Like a bicycle.
        
               | furyofantares wrote:
               | Yeah, but plenty of people are just getting bad results
               | and keeping them, because they'd prefer bad results for
               | free over good results with effort.
        
           | soperj wrote:
           | Most people I see on their electric bikes aren't even
           | pedaling. They're electric motorcycles, and they're a plague
           | to everyone using pedestrian trails. Some of them are going
           | nearly highway speeds, it's ridiculous.
        
           | Terretta wrote:
           | > _they can get you places really effectively!_
           | 
           | But those who require them to get anywhere won't get very far
           | without power.
        
           | EGreg wrote:
           | okay -- how about motorcycles for the mind then? :)
           | 
           | most people don't know how to harness their full potential
        
         | WarmWash wrote:
         | I think there is a legitimate fear that is born from what
         | happened with Chess.
         | 
         | Humans could handily beat computers at chess for a long time.
         | 
         | Then a massive supercomputer beat the reigning champion, but
         | didn't win the tournament.
         | 
         | Then that computer came back and won the tournament a year
         | later.
         | 
         | A few years later humans are collaborating in-game with these
         | master chess engines to multiply their strength, becoming the
         | dominant force in the human/computer chess world.
         | 
         | A few years after that though, the computers start beating the
         | human/computer hybrid opponents.
         | 
         | And not long after that, humans started making the computer
         | perform worse if they had a hand in the match.
         | 
         | The next few years have probably the highest probability since
         | the cold war of being extreme inflection points in the timeline
         | of human history.
        
           | pmarreck wrote:
           | The irony with the chess example is that chess has never been
           | more popular.
           | 
           | Perhaps we're about to experience yet another renaissance of
           | computer languages.
        
             | the_af wrote:
             | I know chess is popular because I have a friend who's
             | enthusiastic about it and plays online regularly.
             | 
             | But I'm out of the loop: in order to maintain popularity,
             | are computers banned? And if so, how is this enforced, both
             | at the serious and at the "troll cheating" level?
             | 
             | (I suppose for casual play, matchmaking takes care of this:
             | if someone is playing at superhuman level due to cheating,
             | you're never going to be matched with them, only with
             | people who play at around your level. Right?)
        
               | retsibsi wrote:
               | The most serious tournaments are played in person, with
               | measures in place to prevent (e.g.) a spectator with a
               | chess engine on their phone communicating with a player.
               | For online play, it's kind of like the situation for
               | other online games; anti-cheat measures are very
               | imperfect, but blatant cheaters tend to get caught and
               | more subtle ones sometimes do. Big online tournaments can
               | have exam-style proctoring, but outside of that it's
               | pretty much impossible to prevent very light cheating --
               | e.g. consulting a computer for the standard moves in an
               | opening is very hard to distinguish from just having
               | memorized them. The sites can detect sloppy cheating,
               | e.g. a player using the site's own analysis tools in a
               | separate tab, but otherwise they have to rely on
               | heuristics and probabilistic judgments.
        
               | nemomarx wrote:
               | Computers are banned in everything except specific
               | tournaments for computers, yeah. If you're found out to
               | have consulted one during a serious competition your wins
               | are of course stripped - a lot of measures have to be
               | taken to prevent someone from getting even a few moves
               | from the model in the bathroom at those.
               | 
               | Not sure how smaller ones do it, but I assume watching to
               | make sure no one has any devices on them during a game
               | works well enough if there's not money at play?
        
               | dugidugout wrote:
               | > But I'm out of the loop: in order to maintain
               | popularity, are computers banned?
               | 
               | Firsrly, yes, you will be banned for playing at an AI
               | level consecutively on most platforms. Secondly, its not
               | very relevant to the concept of gaming. Sure it can make
               | it logistically hard to facilitate, but this has plagued
               | gaming through cheats/hacks since antiquity, and AI can
               | actually help here too. Its simply a cat and mouse game
               | and gamers covet the competitive spirit too much to give
               | in.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | Thanks for the reply.
               | 
               | I know pre-AI cheats have ruined some online games, so
               | I'm not sure it's an encouraging thought...
               | 
               | Are you saying AI can help detect AI cheats in games? In
               | real time for some games? Maybe! That'd be useful.
        
               | kzrdude wrote:
               | Note that "AI" was not and has not been necessary for
               | strong computer chess engines. Though clearly, they have
               | contributed to peak strength and some NN methods are used
               | by the most popular engine, stockfish.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | Oh, I'm conflating the modern era use of the term with
               | the classic definition of AI to include classic chess
               | engines done with tree-pruning, backtracking, and
               | heuristics :)
        
               | dugidugout wrote:
               | > I know pre-AI cheats have ruined some online games, so
               | I'm not sure it's an encouraging thought...
               | 
               | Will you be even more discouraged if I share that "table
               | flipping" and "sleight of hand" have ruined many tabletop
               | games? Are you pressed to find a competitive match in
               | your game-of-choice currently? I can recommend online
               | mahjong! Here is a game that emphasizes art in
               | permutations just as chess does, but every act you make
               | is an exercise in approximating probability so the
               | deterministic wizards are less invasive! In any-case, I'm
               | not so concerned for the well-being of competition.
               | 
               | > Are you saying AI can help detect AI cheats in games?
               | In real time for some games? Maybe! That'd be useful.
               | 
               | I know a few years back valve was testing a NN backed
               | anti-cheat watch system called VACnet, but I didn't
               | follow whether it was useful. There is no reason to
               | assume this won't be improved on!
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | I'm honestly not following your argument here. I'm also
               | not convinced by comparisons between AI and things that
               | aren't AI or even automated.
               | 
               | > _Will you be even more discouraged if I share that
               | "table flipping" and "sleight of hand" have ruined many
               | tabletop games?_
               | 
               | What does this have to do with AI or online games? You
               | cannot do either of those in online games. You also
               | cannot shove the other person aside, punch them in the
               | face, etc. Let's focus strictly on automated cheating in
               | online gaming, otherwise they conversation will shift to
               | absurd tangents.
               | 
               | (As an aside, a quick perusal of r/boardgames or BGG will
               | answer your question: yes, antisocial and cheating
               | behavior HAVE ruined tabletop gaming for some people. But
               | that's neither here nor there because that's not what
               | we're discussing here.)
               | 
               | > _Are you pressed to find a competitive match in your
               | game-of-choice currently? I can recommend online
               | mahjong!_
               | 
               | What are you even trying to say here?
               | 
               | I'm not complaining, nor do I play games online (not
               | because of AI; I just don't find online gaming appealing.
               | The last multiplayer game I enjoyed was Left 4 Dead, with
               | close friends, not cheating strangers). I just find the
               | topic interesting, and I wonder how current AI trends can
               | affect online games, that's all. I'm very skeptical of
               | claims that they don't have a large impact, but I'm open
               | to arguments to the contrary.
               | 
               | I think some of this boils down to whether one believes
               | AI is just like past phenomena, or whether it's
               | significantly different. It's probably too early to tell.
        
               | dugidugout wrote:
               | We are likely on different footing as I quite enjoy games
               | of all form. Here is my attempt to formalize my argument:
               | 
               | Claim 1: Cheating is endemic to competition across all
               | formats (physical or digital)
               | 
               | Claim 2: Despite this, games survive and thrive because
               | people value the competitive spirit itself
               | 
               | Claim 3: The appreciation of play isn't destroyed by the
               | existence of cheaters (even "cheaters" who simply surpass
               | human reasoning)
               | 
               | The mahjong suggestion isn't a non-sequitur (while still
               | an earnest suggestion), it was to exemplify my personal
               | engagement with the spirit of competition and how it
               | completely side-steps the issue you are wary is
               | existential.
               | 
               | > I think some of this boils down to whether one believes
               | AI is just like past phenomenons, or whether it's
               | significantly different. It's probably too early to tell.
               | 
               | I suppose I am not clear on your concern. Online gaming
               | is demonstrably still growing and I think the chess
               | example is a touching story of humanism prevailing. "AI"
               | has been mucking with online gaming for decades now, can
               | you qualify why this is so different now?
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | I really appreciate your clarifications! I think I
               | actually agree with you, and I lost track of my own
               | argument in all of this.
               | 
               | I'm absolutely not contesting that online play is hugely
               | popular.
               | 
               | I guess I'm trying to understand how widespread and
               | serious the problem of cheaters using AI/computer cheats
               | actually is [1]. Maybe the answer is "not worse than
               | before"; I'm skeptical about this but I admit I have no
               | data to back my skepticism.
               | 
               | [1] I know Counter Strike back in the day was sort of
               | ruined because of cheaters. I know one person who worked
               | on a major anticheat (well-known at the time, not sure
               | today), which I think he tried to sell to Valve but they
               | didn't go with his solution. Also amusingly, he was
               | remote-friends with a Russian hacker who wrote many of
               | the cheats, and they had a friendly rivalry. This is just
               | an ancedote, I'm not sure that it has anything to do with
               | the rest of my comment :D
        
               | dugidugout wrote:
               | Ah! I confused your intent myself!
               | 
               | > I guess I'm trying to understand how widespread and
               | serious the problem of cheaters using AI/computer cheats
               | actually is.
               | 
               | It is undoubtedly more widespread.
               | 
               | > I know Counter Strike back in the day was sort of
               | ruined because of cheaters.
               | 
               | There is truth in this, but this only affected more
               | casual ladder play. Since early CSGO (maybe before as
               | well? I am not of source age) there has been FACEiT and
               | other leagues which asserts strict kernel-level anti-
               | cheat and other heuristics on the players. I do agree
               | this cat and mouse game is on the side of the cat and the
               | best competition is curated in tightly controlled (often
               | gate-kept) spaces.
               | 
               | It is interesting that "better" cheating is often done
               | through mimicking humans closer though, which does have
               | an interesting silver lining. We still very much value a
               | "smart" or "strategic" AI in match-based solitary genres,
               | why not carry this over to FPS or the like. Little Timmy
               | gets to train against an AI expressing "competitive
               | player" without needing to break through the extreme
               | barriers to actually play against someone of this
               | caliber. Quite exciting when put this way.
               | 
               | If better cheats are being forced to actually play the
               | game, I'm not sure the threat is very existential to
               | gaming itself. This is much less abrasive than getting
               | no-scoped in spawn at round start in a CS match.
        
               | ecshafer wrote:
               | Chess.com has some cool blog posts about it from a year
               | or two back when there was some cheating scandal with a
               | big name player. They compare moves to the optimal move
               | in a statistical fashion to determine if people are
               | cheating. Like if you are a 1000 ELO player and all of a
               | sudden you make a string of stockfish moves in the game,
               | then yeah you are cheating. A 2400 ELO player making a
               | bunch of stock fish moves is less likely to be
               | suspicious. But they also compare many variables in their
               | models to try and sus out suspicious behavior.
        
             | WarmWash wrote:
             | I'd argue the renaissance is already off the ground; one
             | man's vibe-coded-slop is another man's vision that he
             | finally has the tools to realize.
        
               | YoukaiCountry wrote:
               | It's allowed me to tackle so many small projects that
               | never would have seen the light of day, simply for lack
               | of time.
        
             | suriya-ganesh wrote:
             | Chess being popular is mostly because FIDE had a massive
             | push in the last decade to make it more audience friendly.
             | shorter time formats, more engaging commentary etc.
             | 
             | While AI in chess is very cool in its own accord. It is not
             | the driver for the adoption.
        
               | whatwhaaaaat wrote:
               | This seems like an over simplification. Do many newcomers
               | to chess even know about time formats or watch
               | professional matches? From my anecdotal experience that
               | is a hard no.
               | 
               | Chess programs at primary schools have exploded in the
               | last 10 years and at least in my circle millennial
               | parents seem more likely to push their children to
               | intellectual hobbies than previous generations (at least
               | in my case to attempt to prevent my kids from becoming
               | zombies walking around in pajamas like I see the current
               | high schoolers).
        
               | strbean wrote:
               | Google Trends data for "Chess" worldwide show it trending
               | down from 2004-2016, and then leveling off from 2016
               | until a massive spike in interest in October 2020, when
               | Queen's Gambit was released. Since then it has had a
               | massive upswing.
        
           | lumost wrote:
           | This isn't quite right to my knowledge. Most Game AI's
           | develop novel strategies which they use to beat opponents -
           | but if the player knows they are up against a specific Game
           | AI and has access to it's past games, these strategies can be
           | countered. This was a major issue in the AlphaStar launch
           | where players were able to counter AlphaStar on later play
           | throughs.
        
             | DSMan195276 wrote:
             | Comparing Chess AI to AlphaStar seems pretty messy,
             | StarCraft is such a different type of game. With Chess it
             | doesn't matter if you get an AI like Lc0 to follow lines it
             | played previously because just knowing what it's going to
             | play next doesn't really help you much at all, the hard
             | part is still finding a win that it didn't find itself.
             | 
             | In comparison with StarCraft there's a rock-paper-scissors
             | aspect with the units that makes it an inherent advantage
             | to know what your opponent is doing or going to do. The
             | same thing happens with human players, they hide their
             | accounts to prevent others from discovering their prepared
             | strategies.
        
           | andai wrote:
           | May we get just a little more detail for the uninitiated?
           | 
           | I'm going to assume you're not implying that Deep Blue did
           | 9/11 ;)
        
           | wwweston wrote:
           | It's a test.
           | 
           | There's really no crisis at a certain level; it's great to be
           | able to drive a car to the trailhead and great to be able to
           | hike up the mountain.
           | 
           | At another level, we have worked to make sure our culture
           | barely has any conception of how to distribute necessities
           | and rewards to people except in terms of market competition.
           | 
           | Oh and we barely think about externalities.
           | 
           | We'll have to do better. Or we'll have to demonize and
           | scapegoat so some narrow set of winners can keep their
           | privileges. Are there more people who prefer the latter, or
           | are there enough of the former with leverage? We'll find out.
        
             | kkukshtel wrote:
             | Great comment. The best part about it as well is that you
             | could put this under basically anything ever submitted to
             | hacker news and it would be relevant and cut to the
             | absolute core of whatever is being discussed.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | Sounds like we need FIDE rankings for software developers. It
           | would be an improvement over repeated FizzBuzz testing, I
           | suppose.
        
         | cons0le wrote:
         | Its like a motor bike, except it doesn't take you where you
         | steer. It take you where _it_ wants to take you.
         | 
         | If you tell it you want to go somewhere continents away, it
         | will happily agree and drive you right into the ocean.
         | 
         | And this is before ads and other incentives make it worse.
        
           | mycall wrote:
           | It will take you where _you_ want to go if you can clearly
           | communicate your intent through refinement iterations.
        
             | koiueo wrote:
             | refinement interaction == dismount your bike, and walk it
             | where you want
        
         | MarceliusK wrote:
         | Even if the autonomy is limited, the step change in what a
         | single person can attempt is unmistakable
        
         | GTP wrote:
         | Depends who you listen to. There are developers reporting
         | significant gains from the use of AI, others saying that it
         | doesn't really impact their work, and then there was some
         | research saying that time savings due to the use of AI in
         | developing software are only an illusion, because while
         | developers were feeling more productive they were actually
         | slower. I guess only time will tell who's right or if it is
         | just a matter of using the tool in the right way.
        
           | jimkleiber wrote:
           | Probably depends how you're using it. I've been able to
           | modify open-source software in languages I've never dreamed
           | of learning, so for that, it's MUCH faster. Seems like a
           | power tool, which, like a power saw, can do a lot very fast,
           | which can bring construction or destruction.
        
           | faxmeyourcode wrote:
           | I'm sure the same could be said about tractors when they were
           | coming on the scene.
           | 
           | There was probably initial excitement about not having to
           | manually break the earth, then stories spread about farmers
           | ruining entire crops with one tractor, some farms begin
           | touting 10x more efficiency by running multiple tractors at
           | once, some farmers saying the maintenance burden of a tractor
           | is not worth it compared to feeding/watering their mule, etc.
           | 
           | Fast forward and now gigantic remote controlled combines are
           | dominating thousands of acres of land with the efficiency
           | greater than 100 men with 100 early tractors.
        
             | t_mahmood wrote:
             | And, the end result being devastation of forests,
             | ecosystems, animal life, fast track climate change etc.
        
               | interestpiqued wrote:
               | Implying that efficient agriculture is destroying the
               | planet is a wild take
        
             | pmg101 wrote:
             | Isn't this just a rhetorical trick where by referring to a
             | particular technology of the past which exploded rapidly
             | into dominance you make that path seem inevitable?
             | 
             | Probably some tech does achieve ubiquity and dominance and
             | some does not and it's extremely difficult to say in
             | advance which is which?
        
         | cmrdporcupine wrote:
         | And like a tractor.. don't wear loose clothing near the
         | spinning PTO (power take off) shaft.
        
         | andai wrote:
         | And then with a few additional lines of Python, it becomes a
         | tractor that drives itself.
        
         | tikhonj wrote:
         | Fossil-fuel cars a good analogy because, for all their raw
         | power and capability, living in a polluted, car-dominated world
         | _sucks_. The problem with modern AI has more to do with
         | modernism than with AI.
        
         | roughly wrote:
         | It's sort of interesting to look back at ~100 years of the
         | automobile and, eg, the rise of new urbanism in this metaphor -
         | there are undoubtedly benefits that have come from the
         | automobile, and also the efforts to absolutely maximize where,
         | how, and how often people use their automobile have led to a
         | whole lot of unintended negative consequences.
        
         | bitwize wrote:
         | AI is a Boston taxicab:
         | 
         | * You have to tell it which way to go every step of the way
         | 
         | * Odds are good it'll still drop you off at the wrong place
         | 
         | * You have to pay not only for being taken to the wrong place,
         | but now also for the ride to get you where you wanted to go in
         | the first place
        
         | ivanstojic wrote:
         | When tractors were invented, there was a notable reduction in
         | human employment in agriculture in the USA. From a research
         | paper (https://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/alolmstead/Rece
         | nt_P...):
         | 
         | > The lower-bound estimate represents 18 percent of the total
         | reduction in man-hours in U.S. agriculture between 1944 and
         | 1959; the upper-bound estimate, 27 percent
         | 
         | I'm not seeing that with LLMs.
        
       | jordemort wrote:
       | When did a horse ever give anyone psychosis?
        
         | Zardoz89 wrote:
         | So it's a car.
        
       | jurjo wrote:
       | So... are we having AI races?
        
         | recursive wrote:
         | Yes. There are leaderboards or evals or something.
        
       | Eliezer wrote:
       | "2024 AI was a horse". People really like to imagine that the
       | last 6 months constitute their true observation of the new
       | eternal state of the future.
        
         | skapadia wrote:
         | Exactly. We're headed for a discontinuity, not an inflection
         | point.
        
       | skybrian wrote:
       | Nice! I added this to my AI metaphor collection.
       | 
       | Another one I like is "Hungry ghosts in jars."
       | 
       | https://bsky.app/profile/hikikomorphism.bsky.social/post/3lw...
        
       | blibble wrote:
       | Clever Hans is how I describe LLM agents to non-techies
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans
        
       | agentultra wrote:
       | I prefer Doctorow's observation that they make us into reverse-
       | centaurs [0]. We're not leading the LLM around like some faithful
       | companion that doesn't always do what we want it to. We're the
       | last-mile delivery driver of an algorithm running in a data-
       | center that can't take responsibility for and ship the code to
       | production on its own. We're the horse.
       | 
       | [0] https://locusmag.com/feature/commentary-cory-doctorow-
       | revers...
        
       | drobinhood wrote:
       | I'd like to think that given the opportunity most would sit in
       | the saddle and make progress, but it's more likely that this is
       | the horse:
       | https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/857954008513695744/YL5x...
        
       | 6stringmerc wrote:
       | Horses have some semblance of self preservation and awareness of
       | danger - see: jumping. LLMs do not have that at all so the
       | analogy fails.
       | 
       | My term of "Automation Improved" is far more relevant and
       | descriptive in current state of the art deployments. Same phone /
       | text logic trees, next level macro-type agent work, none of it is
       | free range. Horses can survive on their own. AI is a task helper,
       | no more.
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | >LLMs do not have that at all so the analogy fails.
         | 
         | I somewhat disagree with this. AI doesn't have to worry about
         | any kind of physical danger to itself, so it's not going to
         | have any evolutionary function around that. If the linked
         | Reddit thread is to be believed AI does have awareness of
         | information hazards and attempts to rationalize around them.
         | 
         | https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1qjx26b/gemini...
         | 
         | >Horses can survive on their own.
         | 
         | Eh, this is getting pretty close to a type of binary thinking
         | that breaks down under scrutiny. If, for example, we take any
         | kind of selectively bred animal that requires human care for
         | it's continued survival, does this somehow make said animal
         | "improved automation"?
        
       | altern8 wrote:
       | I see AI as an awesome technology, but also a like programming
       | roulette.
       | 
       | It could go and do the task perfectly as instructed, or it could
       | do something completely different that you haven't asked for and
       | destroy everything in its path in the process.
       | 
       | I personally found that if you don't give it write access to
       | anything that you can't easily restore and you review and commit
       | code often it saves me a lot of time. It also makes the whole
       | process more enjoyable, since it takes care of a lot of
       | boilerplate for me.
       | 
       | It's definitely NOT intelligent, it's more like a glorified
       | autocomplete but it CAN save a huge amount of time if used
       | correctly.
        
         | MarceliusK wrote:
         | The safety practices you describe are basically the right
         | mental model: assume it's fallible, keep writes reversible,
         | review everything, commit often
        
           | altern8 wrote:
           | Yes, it's been working well.
        
       | isodev wrote:
       | AI is a horse indeed - eats creative works by humans and
       | transforms them into a steaming pile of... output tokens.
        
         | MarceliusK wrote:
         | A badly ridden horse mostly produces manure. A well-ridden one
         | gets you somewhere
        
           | isodev wrote:
           | Ah yes, must be a skill issue. Or I forgot to drink my
           | coolaid this morning.
        
         | Tenemo wrote:
         | You seem to imply that its outputs aren't found by people to be
         | useful, which isn't true.
        
       | nomilk wrote:
       | The metaphor makes sense in comparing a human walking (SWE w/o
       | AI) to a human riding on a horse (SWE w/ AI), except for:
       | 
       | > (The horse) is way slower and less reliable than a train but
       | can go more places
       | 
       | What does the 'train' represent here?
       | 
       | A guess: perhaps off-the-shelf software? - rigid, but much faster
       | if it goes where (/ does what) you want it to.
        
         | spot5010 wrote:
         | I had the same question.
         | 
         | Maybe the train is software that's built by SWEs (w/ or w/o AI
         | help). Specifically built for going from A to B very fast. But
         | not flexible, and takes a lot of effort to build and maintain.
        
       | MarceliusK wrote:
       | Anyone claiming the horse understands the journey, or worse,
       | wants to take you somewhere, is selling mythology
        
         | lief79 wrote:
         | That's moving away from the actual horse analogy. If you can
         | tell a guide dog to take you somewhere, you can tell a horse
         | that too.
         | 
         | Granted, a journey to a new location would make this accurate.
        
       | zhoujing204 wrote:
       | "It is not possible to do the work of science without using a
       | language that is filled with metaphors. Virtually the entire body
       | of modern science is an attempt to explain phenomena that cannot
       | be experienced directly by human beings, by reference to forces
       | and processes that we can experience directly...
       | 
       | But there is a price to be paid. Metaphors can become confused
       | with the things they are meant to symbolize, so that we treat the
       | metaphor as the reality. We forget that it is an analogy and take
       | it literally." -- The Triple Helix: Gene, Organism, and
       | Environment by Richard Lewontin.
       | 
       | Here are something I generated with Gemini:
       | 
       | 1. Sentience and Agency
       | 
       | The Horse: A horse is a living, sentient being with a survival
       | instinct, emotions (fear, trust), and a will of its own. When a
       | horse refuses to cross a river, it is often due to self-
       | preservation or fear. The AI: AI is a mathematical function
       | minimizing error. It has no biological drive, no concept of
       | death, and no feelings. If an AI "hallucinates" or fails, it
       | isn't "spooked"; it is simply executing a probabilistic
       | calculation that resulted in a low-quality output. It has no
       | agency or intent.
       | 
       | 2. Scalability and Replication
       | 
       | The Horse: A horse is a distinct physical unit. If you have one
       | horse, you can only do one horse's worth of work. You cannot
       | click "copy" and suddenly have 10,000 horses. The AI: Software is
       | infinitely reproducible at near-zero marginal cost. A single AI
       | model can be deployed to millions of users simultaneously. It can
       | "gallop" in a million directions at once, something a biological
       | entity can never do.
       | 
       | 3. The Velocity of Evolution
       | 
       | The Horse: A horse today is biologically almost identical to a
       | horse from 2,000 years ago. Their capabilities are capped by
       | biology. The AI: AI capabilities evolve at an exponential rate
       | (Moore's Law and algorithmic efficiency). An AI model from three
       | years ago is functionally obsolete compared to modern ones. A
       | foal does not grow up to run 1,000 times faster than its parents,
       | but a new AI model might be 1,000 times more efficient than its
       | predecessor.
       | 
       | 4. Contextual Understanding
       | 
       | The Horse: A horse understands its environment. It knows what a
       | fence is, it knows what grass is, and it knows gravity exists.
       | The AI: Large Language Models (LLMs) do not truly "know"
       | anything; they predict the next plausible token in a sequence. An
       | AI can describe a fence perfectly, but it has no phenomenological
       | understanding of what a fence is. It mimics understanding without
       | possessing it.
       | 
       | 5. Responsibility
       | 
       | The Horse: If a horse kicks a stranger, there is a distinct
       | understanding that the animal has a mind of its own, though the
       | owner is liable. The AI: The question of liability with AI is far
       | more complex. Is it the fault of the prompter (rider), the
       | developer (breeder), or the training data (the lineage)? The
       | "black box" nature of deep learning makes it difficult to know
       | why the "horse" went off-road in a way that doesn't apply to
       | animal psychology.
        
       | dangoodmanUT wrote:
       | Damn that's clever
        
       | ttouch wrote:
       | this is such a good take, it makes so much sense and it's a very
       | good answer to ai related interview questions
        
       | djmips wrote:
       | I'm worried about self driving horses.
        
       | qwertytyyuu wrote:
       | There are so many nouns this applies to...
        
       | overflyer wrote:
       | And this horse is amazing...
        
       | threethirtytwo wrote:
       | Why does HN love analogies? You can pick any animal or thing and
       | it can fit in some way. Horse is a docile safe analogy it's also
       | the most obvious analogy. Like yes the world gets it LLMs have
       | limitations thanks for sharing, we know it's not as good as a
       | programmer.
       | 
       | We should use analogies to point out the obvious thing everyone
       | is avoiding:
       | 
       | Guys 3 years ago, AI wasn't even a horse. It was a rock. The key
       | is that it transformed into horse.... what will it be in the next
       | 10 years?
       | 
       | AI is a terminator. A couple years back someone turned off read
       | only mode. That's the better analogy.
       | 
       | Pick an analogy that follows the trendline of continual change
       | into the unknown future rather then an obvious analogy that keeps
       | your ego and programming skills safe.
        
         | danw1979 wrote:
         | How about "AI is a chainsaw" ?
         | 
         | Pretty good for specific tasks.
         | 
         | Probably worth the input energy, when used in moderation.
         | 
         | Wear the right safety gear, but even this might not help with a
         | kickback.
         | 
         | It's quite obvious to everyone nearby when you're using one.
        
         | niam wrote:
         | > Why does HN love analogies?
         | 
         | I suppose because they resemble the abstractions that make
         | complex language possible. Another world full of aggressive
         | posturing at tweet-length analogistic musings might have
         | stifled some useful English parlance early.
         | 
         | But I reckon that we shouldn't have called it phishing because
         | emails don't always smell.
        
           | threethirtytwo wrote:
           | If you ever heard a sermon by a priest it's loaded with
           | analogies. Everyone loves analogies but analogies are not a
           | form of reason and can often be used to mislead. A lot of
           | these sermons are driven by reasoning via analogy.
           | 
           | My question is more why does HN love analogies when the above
           | is true.
        
           | Abstract_Typist wrote:
           | > I suppose because they resemble the abstractions that make
           | complex language possible
           | 
           | As in models: All analogies are "wrong", some analogies are
           | useful.
        
         | GuB-42 wrote:
         | > Why does HN love analogies?
         | 
         | Because HN is like a child and analogies are like images
        
           | adonovan wrote:
           | I see what you did there.
        
         | beepbooptheory wrote:
         | If an analogy is an "obvious" analogy that makes it
         | definitionally a good analogy, right? Either way: don't see why
         | you gotta be so prescriptive about it one way or the other! You
         | can just say you disagree.
        
         | samtp wrote:
         | AI is an analogy to something that people feel the technology
         | is similar to but that it is obviously not.
         | 
         | Language is more of less a series of analogies. Comparing one
         | thing to another is how humans are able to make sense of the
         | world.
        
       | apricot wrote:
       | And it produces an amazing amount of horseshit.
        
       | aanet wrote:
       | > We are skeptical of those that talk
       | 
       | ^^ We are skeptical of AIs (and people) that claim they have
       | consciousness ;-)
        
       | overtone1000 wrote:
       | Step aside, Grok, Mr. Ed is the new stud in town
        
       | arthurfirst wrote:
       | Force multiplier and power projector.
       | 
       | Requires ammo (tokens) which can be expensive.
       | 
       | Requires good aim to hit the target.
       | 
       | Requires practice to get good aim.
       | 
       | Dangerous in the hands of the unskilled (like most instruments or
       | tools).
        
       | jpalepu33 wrote:
       | This metaphor really captures the current state well. As someone
       | building products with LLMs, the "you have to tell it where to
       | turn" part resonates deeply.
       | 
       | I've found that the key is treating AI like a junior developer
       | who's really fast but needs extremely clear instructions. The
       | same way you'd never tell a junior dev "just build the feature" -
       | you need to:
       | 
       | 1. Break down the task into atomic steps 2. Provide explicit
       | examples of expected output 3. Set up validation/testing for
       | every response 4. Have fallback strategies when it inevitably
       | goes off-road
       | 
       | The real productivity gains come when you build proper
       | scaffolding around the "horse" - prompt templates, output
       | validators, retry logic, human-in-the-loop for edge cases.
       | Without that infrastructure, you're just hoping the horse stays
       | on the path.
       | 
       | The "it eats a lot" point is also critical and often overlooked
       | when people calculate ROI. API costs can spiral quickly if you're
       | not careful about prompt engineering and caching strategies.
        
       | p0w3n3d wrote:
       | Your boss tells you that, since he bought you one, you must build
       | the house twice faster from now on.
        
       | doener wrote:
       | > It is way slower and less reliable than a train but can go more
       | places
       | 
       | I'm not able to follow. So AI is a horse in this metaphor, what
       | is a train then? Still a train?
        
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