[HN Gopher] In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels
        
       Author : speckx
       Score  : 443 points
       Date   : 2026-01-22 14:14 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (e360.yale.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (e360.yale.edu)
        
       | mekdoonggi wrote:
       | Curious if this will eventually change China's calculus with
       | regards to Russia. If Europe is a big customer for Chinese
       | exports, and Russia is antagonizing, it seems like China would
       | have an incentive to put pressure on Russia.
       | 
       | It already seems like Russia is positioned to be completely
       | subservient to China in the future.
        
         | mschuster91 wrote:
         | > If Europe is a big customer for Chinese exports, and Russia
         | is antagonizing, it seems like China would have an incentive to
         | put pressure on Russia.
         | 
         | China wants Russia to _at least_ keep the Ukraine war going, if
         | not eventually win the darn thing. Russia winning (or getting
         | away with an armistice that lets them keep Crimea and Donbas)
         | means a precedence China has for a land-grab of its own -
         | obviously Taiwan, but other countries in its  "sphere of
         | influence" have seen hostilities for years, from land grabs [1]
         | to overfishing [2], not to mention the border dispute with
         | India.
         | 
         | And as long as we are distracted with Israel/Palestine or
         | Ukraine/Russia, China has free rein to do whatever they want.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So...
         | 
         | [2] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-world/chinas-
         | overfi...
        
           | mekdoonggi wrote:
           | That makes sense, but if that's the case, why aren't they
           | invading Taiwan now? Wouldn't now be the perfect time?
        
             | mano78 wrote:
             | Yep, a time when anyone can say to an ally "Greenland must
             | be mine" and more or less get away with it...
        
             | energy123 wrote:
             | The consensus among Western defense and foreign policy
             | types is that China will most likely invade Taiwan in 2027,
             | relative to any other single year, conditional on them
             | doing it at all.
        
             | saubeidl wrote:
             | Because that would be way more destabilizing globally
             | before the precedent is set and China doesn't want
             | instability.
             | 
             | Which is also, coincidentally why they seem like a better
             | trade partner to me as European at this point.
        
           | mytailorisrich wrote:
           | I don't think that mainland China needs any sort of precedent
           | over Taiwan should they decide on military action. The
           | situation is completely different from Ukraine. The South
           | China Sea is also on long-running dispute that predates the
           | PRC (and dates from a time where all the neighbouring
           | countries were Western colonies...) and what has been
           | happening is more a policy of "fait accompli" by occupying
           | unoccupied disputed islands first rather than an "invasion".
           | 
           | I don't know what is the thinking on Ukraine now in Beijing,
           | but they were massively pissed off when Russia invaded
           | because it has caused a lot of disruption to belt and road
           | and to East-West relations in general.
        
           | WarmWash wrote:
           | Donbas is mostly wheat fields, Taiwan is mostly SOTA
           | semiconductor fabs that currently are the sole pillar holding
           | up the AI (and compute in general) zeitgeist.
           | 
           | The global response _would not_ be the same, even remotely.
           | And what would China get from it? A tiny island of rubble and
           | an ego boost, while losing enormous global favor? The cost of
           | that island may well be a few trillion for China, just so
           | they can say they defeated the nationalists.
        
             | throwaway_45 wrote:
             | China is playing the long game. They can go spend a
             | trillion bucks and hire/steal the tech and they could
             | destroy Taiwan's competitive advantage, and they could just
             | economically crush them.
        
             | mekdoonggi wrote:
             | The semiconductors are propping up the AI zietgeist in the
             | US, but is that true globally? Why would
             | Canada/Brazil/Europe care about Taiwan? China will still
             | sell them the chips.
             | 
             | The only one who would really care is the US. So by taking
             | Taiwan, China blows up the US stock market and takes
             | control of the chips.
        
               | WarmWash wrote:
               | Every country on Earth benefits from the chips that come
               | from Taiwan, and not just the governments, the people
               | using pretty much anything that does computation. That
               | includes China.
        
               | mekdoonggi wrote:
               | Yes I am aware. Which means that if China takes over
               | political control of Taiwan and says, "We will still sell
               | chips just like normal to everyone except the US".
               | 
               | Would the rest of the world decide to go to war with
               | China for the political freedom of Taiwan?
        
               | WarmWash wrote:
               | Taiwan will burn (explosive demolition) the fabs before
               | China gets them. This is baked into their defense plan
               | and made known to China.
        
               | jojomodding wrote:
               | What makes you think the Taiwanese will hand over the
               | chip producing facitilies to the invader?
        
             | mschuster91 wrote:
             | > Donbas is mostly wheat fields
             | 
             | ... which nevertheless are _very_ important worldwide.
             | Early in the war, there was a lot of effort to make sure
             | grain exports could run smoothly because otherwise Africa
             | would have been in serious trouble.
             | 
             | > The global response would not be the same, even remotely.
             | 
             | We're already at a stage where Trump doesn't give a single
             | fuck about NATO and some of his advisors would rather have
             | it disbanded yesterday in favor of isolationism, or even
             | outright march into territory to annex it. I have
             | absolutely zero faith that Trump would intervene on
             | Taiwan's favor - an intervention does not fit into Trump's
             | and especially Miller's world view wherein the world is to
             | be divided into areas of influence for the super powers to
             | act with impunity.
             | 
             | > And what would China get from it? A tiny island of rubble
             | and an ego boost, while losing enormous global favor?
             | 
             | Never underestimate nationalist idiocy. Putin invaded
             | Ukraine because of his dream to restore "Great Russia", it
             | is entirely possible that the CCP wants the same for the
             | ego of their leadership to be the ones "bringing the lost
             | areas home". They already did so with Hongkong, and not
             | reacting to China violating the treaty with the UK was the
             | biggest mistake the Western nations have ever done.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | Yes, who needs food. /s
        
           | david_draco wrote:
           | Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visted Europe and openly
           | said to Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign-policy
           | chief and other EU ministers: the Chinese Communist Party
           | (CCP) does not want to see Russia defeated in Ukraine,
           | fearing that the U.S. would then shift its full attention
           | toward Beijing.
           | 
           | https://www.economist.com/international/2025/10/28/china-
           | is-... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyxk4ywppzo
        
         | munk-a wrote:
         | China is happy as a clam that Russia is self-isolating and
         | destroying their internal economy. The natural resources of
         | Russia are vast and if China is the only one exploiting them
         | and funneling them into the Chinese economy it'd be an
         | excellent outcome. I don't think China is opposed to strong
         | economies as trade partners but dependent economies are much
         | easier to control and monopolize.
        
           | pydry wrote:
           | Russia is only isolated from the west (e.g. exports to India
           | are booming) and its internal economy is growing faster than
           | Europe's.
           | 
           | Russia holds leverage over China because China is incredibly
           | resource dependent and _very_ susceptible to the threat of
           | blockade through the first island chain by the US. Only
           | Russia can bypass such a blockade with fertilizer, grain, oil
           | and gas.
           | 
           | The US is driving these countries into each other's arms.
        
             | qaq wrote:
             | Russia holds leverage over China is probably the funniest
             | statement I've read on HN in a long time ...
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | If Europe were a big customer for Russia energy, it seems like
         | Russia would have an incentive to not antagonize it.
         | 
         | Oh, see how well it went.
        
           | jhrmnn wrote:
           | Europe _was_ a bit customer for Russia energy, and Russia
           | invaded an EU neighbor nonetheless. After which it stopped
           | being the customer. So it seems like that incentive didn 't
           | really work.
        
             | mekdoonggi wrote:
             | I think that was raincole's point. I guess we can't account
             | for Russia or the US making decisions that are completely
             | counter to the benefit of their people.
        
             | mrweasel wrote:
             | Had Russia indeed invaded Ukraine in three days, I don't
             | think the EU today would have been any less dependent on
             | Russians energy than in 2022.
        
           | microtonal wrote:
           | It also works the other way around and I am pretty sure that
           | was what Russia was betting on - with Europe's dependence on
           | Russian energy, Europe would not react strongly to Russia's
           | invasion.
           | 
           | That did not go as expected for Russia either.
        
           | rsynnott wrote:
           | China is usually seen (I think broadly correctly) as more of
           | a rational actor than Russia. Russia is much more run for the
           | benefit of a weird dictator than run as a country.
        
           | arrrg wrote:
           | It worked until it didn't. That's how it goes. Peace is
           | always hard work and irrational actors (in terms of: well
           | being of people, not necessarily aspirations of empire) can
           | muck everything up.
           | 
           | Economical co-dependency is a good tool for increasing the
           | price of going to war and making it irrational. It's also not
           | a zero sum game and tends to profit both sides. However, it
           | can suck if you do it with non-democratic regimes and
           | autocratic rulers who trample human rights.
           | 
           | So between France, Germany, Poland and all the other EU
           | members it's keeping the continent at peace and generally
           | does not suck because it's between broadly democratic
           | nations. It also benefits each one massively and makes things
           | possible like a common electric grid that increases
           | reliability in general. So nearly all upside.
           | 
           | I do think economic cooperation with the Soviet Union and
           | later Russia - much, much more limited than between EU
           | members - was helpful in cooling tensions and making the
           | world a bit safer, sure, but Russia has clearly behaved in a
           | way that makes that no longer a good idea.
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | Russia did have a big incentive to not antagonize Europe.
           | 
           | But sadly they have a political system that doesn't reflect
           | what is best for the ordinary person. So those incentives can
           | be ignored by those making the decisions.
           | 
           | See also, Trump invading Greenland.
        
         | filloooo wrote:
         | Your geopolitical views are so naive it's hard to take
         | seriously.
         | 
         | EU is now an unwilling dumping ground for China, hostility and
         | paranoia are growing by the day now that China is no longer a
         | lucrative market itself and is pursuing its interests outside
         | commerce, the cordial days are numbered.
         | 
         | Russia would never be subservient to China, once the war ends
         | Russia would be back being a geopolitical player because of its
         | vast natural resources, and they are already import
         | substituting even Chinese products.
         | 
         | Russia can turn to the west to be a real western country
         | whenever they see fit, the eternal fear for China.
         | 
         | This is why China is going as far as it can to accommodate
         | Putin, even souring it's relations with the EU which isolated
         | itself.
         | 
         | In this sense, it is China being "subservient" to Russia.
        
           | mekdoonggi wrote:
           | I am certainly not an expert. What resources or military
           | capability does Russia have that China could not eclipse,
           | replace, or source from a partner?
           | 
           | What would it mean for Russia to become a "real" western
           | country? Why would China fear that?
           | 
           | Whatever happens, Russia needs to sell resources to stay
           | afloat. I have a hard believing that if it came down to it,
           | China couldn't just seize Vladivostok.
        
           | Tade0 wrote:
           | Russia recovering from this invasion they started is the
           | naive take.
           | 
           | It's currently selling its resources at a steep discount and
           | that is unlikely to change because its customers are only in
           | it for the bargain they're getting.
        
       | testing22321 wrote:
       | Solar prices in the US are criminal, protecting oil and gas who
       | bought all the politicians.
       | 
       | Canada here. 7.6kw on our roof for $0 out of pocket thanks to $5k
       | grant and $8k interest free loan.
       | 
       | It makes 7.72Mwh per year, worth $1000. Tight valley, tons of
       | snow. We put that on the loan for 8 years, then get $1000 per
       | year free money for 20 years or so. Biggest no brainer of all
       | time.
       | 
       | Dad in Victoria Australia just got 10.6kw fully installed and
       | operational for $4000 AUD. ($2,700 USD)
       | 
       | Australia has so much electricity during the day they're talking
       | about making I free for everyone in the middle of the day.
       | 
       | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-03/energy-retailers-offe...
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | And that's $1000 per year at _today 's_ energy prices, which
         | surely will go up over time.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | They're already locked in approved to go up at least 6% a
           | year here. It just went up 16% this year for people out of
           | town.
        
           | njarboe wrote:
           | One could hope with improving tech and decreasing regulations
           | we could have decreasing (nominal) energy prices in the
           | future. That would be progress.
        
             | jacquesm wrote:
             | Demand is rising very fast compared to supply, I don't
             | think that will happen.
             | 
             | Energy is like RAM or clockspeed: you can't have enough of
             | it.
        
             | blitzar wrote:
             | > decreasing (nominal) energy prices in the future
             | 
             | Hasn't happened ever before, not sure why this time it
             | would be different.
        
             | zozbot234 wrote:
             | We'll most likely see off-peak or dispatchable-demand
             | energy prices become effectively negligible due to cheap
             | intermittent sources, but the price for reliable 24/7
             | supply will if anything trend higher. Storage is not enough
             | to bridge the gap in all cases, so you need either very
             | expensive peaker plants or less expensive nuclear to
             | provide a reliable baseload supply for those critical uses.
        
               | pranavj wrote:
               | The baseload framing is increasingly outdated. What grids
               | need isn't constant supply - it's flexible supply that
               | matches variable demand. Solar + batteries handle daytime
               | and evening peaks well. Wind fills different gaps. The
               | remaining "firmness" problem (extended low-wind, low-sun
               | periods) is real but smaller than baseload thinking
               | suggests. Most studies show you can get to 80-90%
               | renewables before you hit hard storage limits. The last
               | 10-20% is the expensive part, but that's a different
               | problem than needing baseload for everything.
        
               | jacquesm wrote:
               | And HVDC long haul offsets a lot of those problems as
               | well and is more effective than storage.
        
         | munk-a wrote:
         | And that on-roof-solar helps (as it becomes widespread)
         | mitigate the growing need for additional grid capacity. Canada
         | is a big country and, outside the major cities, upgrading grid
         | capacity is quite expensive per capita. It's a win-win in
         | Canada, investing in self-sufficiency while reducing the
         | maintenance burden of infrastructure.
        
           | GuB-42 wrote:
           | If there is no in-house storage to match, how does it help
           | the grid? It is still needed for cold winter nights, where
           | demand is high and solar panels produce nothing. Hydro can
           | provide the power, but the grid will be running at full load.
        
             | wussboy wrote:
             | Most houses in Canada are heated with natural gas. I'm not
             | negating your overall comment, but in general, cold nights
             | don't strain the grid because of heating needs.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | _Latest Data Shows the Rapid Growth of Heat Pumps in
               | Canada_ - https://www.theenergymix.com/latest-data-shows-
               | the-rapid-gro... - November 5th, 2025
               | 
               | (still good news, as most of Canada's electric generation
               | is low carbon hydro, and the rest of fossil generation
               | can be pushed out with storage and renewables, although I
               | do not have a link handy by province how much fossil
               | generation needs to be pushed out)
        
             | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
             | cold winters aren't as bad for the grid as you might expect
             | because the cold keeps the power lines cold which lets you
             | pump more power through them.
        
             | ezfe wrote:
             | in-house storage helps, but net-metering and grid-storage
             | also works
        
             | volkl48 wrote:
             | Depends on your system constraints.
             | 
             | As an example:
             | 
             | I live in New England. We do not have enough natural gas
             | pipeline capacity to meet demand in long periods of very
             | cold weather, and have very limited natural gas storage
             | that can't buffer that for as long as a cold spell can
             | last.
             | 
             | In these periods of time the grid traditionally keeps the
             | lights on by switching over a significant portion of the
             | grid to burning oil for power, and/or with the occasional
             | LNG tanker load into Everett MA. These are both....pretty
             | terrible and expensive solutions.
             | 
             | Burning less natural gas during the day still helps at
             | night/at peak, because it means there's been less draw-down
             | of our limited storage/more refill of it during the day, so
             | we don't have to turn to worse options as heavily at night.
        
           | Night_Thastus wrote:
           | It may slightly help with capacity, but it causes bigger
           | problems financially. Even if a home uses next to no power,
           | it still _must be connected to the grid_. The total number of
           | such homes ends up meaning a lot of power lines, transformer
           | stations, monitoring equipment, and people to do all the
           | work.
           | 
           | If you have all of that expense, and suddenly people have
           | solar panels so pay $0 for an energy bill - do you see the
           | problem? The actual cost of fuel/generation is very small
           | compared to the fixed costs.
           | 
           | The more people use solar, the more in the red the utility
           | becomes. You can 'fix' this by making it so every home has a
           | fixed 'connection cost' and then a smaller 'usage cost' on
           | top, but that destroys the incentive for solar panels -
           | they'd never break even for the average buyer.
           | 
           | Solar is great, fantastic even. But it should be done
           | _centrally_ , or people will have to get used to the idea
           | that they will _never_ pay themselves off and are just doing
           | it for the environment.
        
             | testing22321 wrote:
             | That is an interesting theory, but it doesn't work like
             | that in reality.
             | 
             | Australia is giving free power to everyone during the day
             | because they have so much.
             | 
             | More solar is a great thing.
        
             | _aavaa_ wrote:
             | The term you're circling is "grid defection".
             | 
             | > must be connected to the grid.
             | 
             | That's a legislative problem. If a home can prove it can
             | produce enough electricity for itself, it should not be
             | forced to be connected.
             | 
             | > You can 'fix' this by making it so every home has a fixed
             | 'connection cost' and then a smaller 'usage cost' on top
             | 
             | A lot of places already do this.
        
               | Night_Thastus wrote:
               | It's not a legal problem. The reality is that the vast
               | majority of homes with solar must be connected to the
               | grid because that's how they're wired and designed. You
               | can do a completely off-grid approach, but it's more
               | expensive and requires large batteries. Most people just
               | do the simple panels and don't have any intention of
               | going off-grid.
               | 
               | Also: Even if half of a neighborhood doesn't need the
               | connection, the work ends up being similar. It's more
               | based on distance/area.
        
             | ponector wrote:
             | Where I from, every utility bill has two parts: fixed cost
             | and metered cost. You pay for installed capacity and by the
             | meter for actually consumed kWh, GJ, m3.
        
           | WheatMillington wrote:
           | Solar does basically nothing to help with grid capacity.
        
             | NetMageSCW wrote:
             | If solar is cheaper than the alternatives, then installing
             | solar means more money for growing the grid capacity as
             | well.
        
           | phil21 wrote:
           | I think the inverse has proven to be largely true. If a home
           | that uses effectively net-zero power is still connected the
           | grid, it becomes a liability to grid stablity and expense.
           | 
           | There still needs to be enough power to supply to all those
           | homes in the event of a protracted time where solar is
           | unavailable. It gets less applicable as homes start to get
           | multi-day battery banks installed, but those are incredibly
           | rare since they are too expensive.
           | 
           | The whole "wealthy homeowners get subsidized solar and then
           | effectively free backup power paid for by everyone else"
           | needs to end.
        
         | slavik81 wrote:
         | The Greener Homes Grant and Greener Homes Loan you describe
         | have ended, but the 160% tarrif on imported solar panels
         | remains. Solar prices in Canada are still quite expensive, and
         | regulations are needlessly strict. Solar fencing is illegal in
         | many jurisdictions, balcony solar is illegal everywhere, and
         | utility-scale solar is effectively prohibited in the regions
         | with the most sunlight.
         | 
         | Solar production in Canada will continue to grow, but we're not
         | doing nearly as much as Europe to encourage it.
        
           | standeven wrote:
           | Some provincial grants remain ($5k in BC last time I
           | checked), but yes - Canada can and should do more. Balcony
           | solar seems like such an easy win. Hopefully tariffs get
           | dropped now that we're talking to China again. And federal
           | Liberals could force municipalities and provinces to reduce
           | some of the red tape surrounding solar installations. Come on
           | Canada, unlocking clean energy shouldn't have to be a fight!
        
           | evolve2k wrote:
           | I'm wondering out loud if you might be able to purchase what
           | would essentially be the component parts of a solar panel but
           | deconstructed (eg frame, cells, glass, wires; maybe the cells
           | need further deconstructing) and do final assembly in Canada
           | such that the final panel meets criteria to be "built
           | locally", potentially built of local and imported parts.
           | 
           | Surely local manufacturers don't use 100% Canadian made
           | parts.
        
         | mrits wrote:
         | It's not always a no-brainer. If you live in a good established
         | neighborhood in a warmer climate you'd have to remove tree
         | coverage. Even if you did that, it's the other guys not oil or
         | gas that will make it a hassle.
        
           | Tepix wrote:
           | Houses where the roof is completely in the shade from trees?
           | That's not a very common sight.
        
             | treis wrote:
             | Depends on the city. Here in Atlanta we are a "city in a
             | forest" and for older neighborhoods with mature trees it's
             | more common than not.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | New panels are much less impacted by shade. Friends out of
           | town just installed the same setup as ours, didn't want to
           | cut down three monster Doug firs shading their roof in
           | summer.
           | 
           | Made 6.9Mwh in 2025, only just less than ours with no shade
           | at all.
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | I mean physics would dictate that shade impacts performance
             | but if you are able to break the laws of physics I am
             | impressed!
        
               | testing22321 wrote:
               | And bifacial panels with higher efficiency were invented
               | to work around that physics.
               | 
               | Real numbers don't lie.
        
               | boringg wrote:
               | No one works around physics. You work with physics or you
               | don't work.
               | 
               | What you are describing is adding more solar capability
               | to counter act the shade. Also the other part of it is
               | that the panels work in parallel/not in series or
               | alternatively don't dis activate as many conversion
               | points as possible.
               | 
               | Physics never lies - they are the only laws that you
               | cannot break.
        
               | slavik81 wrote:
               | Shade on older solar systems would impact energy
               | production disproportionally. You would typically see
               | dramatic reductions like 50%-80% reduced output due to
               | 10-20% shade. New shade-tolerant solar systems are closer
               | to being proportional.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | This is because a string of panels in series are limited
               | by the weakest link -- if one cell is fully shaded, it
               | blocks electricity flow through it, and therefore through
               | the whole string. Bypass diodes mitigate that to some
               | extent. But with electronics costs still falling, it's
               | now possible to use more smaller inverters to connect the
               | solar array to the grid, each one with its own separate
               | string, or even an individual panel (which is a series
               | string of cells).
        
         | DetectDefect wrote:
         | Missing from your calculus is the cost of creating, cleaning,
         | maintaining and eventually replacing the hardware. None of that
         | is "free" - it is merely externalized to a vulnerable
         | population or to your future self.
        
           | microtonal wrote:
           | Missing from your calculus are the healthcare costs of every
           | person in a country breathing in fumes from electricity
           | plants that burn coal and fumes from cars that burn gasoline.
           | 
           | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266675922.
           | ..
           | 
           | (And a gazillion other studies.)
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | Not supporting OP because I think hes backwards on the
             | matter. However in Canada the electricity that is being
             | burned isn't coal based - so you need to compare the actual
             | grid not some hypothetical grid.
        
               | microtonal wrote:
               | That's a fair point, though I think OP's recommendation
               | to switch to solar is also to people outside Canada and
               | most of the world is still burning fossil fuels to
               | generate electricity.
        
               | boringg wrote:
               | OP probably shouldn't have been replying to a Canada
               | based question.
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | Canada's alternative energy source is very rarely coal
               | (no where near me at least) but a lot of the grid
               | capacity is coming from LNG outside of ON/QC. BC has a
               | bunch of rivers and other water features but has been
               | highly reluctant to build out hydro supply, as an
               | example.
        
               | tialaramex wrote:
               | Unlike the UK (which mothballed and eventually tore down
               | its coal power stations) there _is_ still a whole bunch
               | of coal power online in Canada.
               | 
               | Lingan Generating Station would be a typical example. Big
               | thermal power station, built to burn local coal,
               | realistically the transition for them is to non-coal
               | thermal power, burning LNG or Oil, or trees or whatever
               | else can be set on fire. If they burned trash (which
               | isn't really a practical conversion, but it's a
               | hypothetical) we could argue that's renewable because
               | it's not like there won't be trash, but otherwise this is
               | just never going to be a renewable power source.
               | 
               | Canada is a huge place, so I don't doubt that none those
               | coal stations are near you (unless, I suppose, you
               | literally live next to Lingan or a similar plant but just
               | aren't very observant) but most of us aren't self-
               | sufficient and so we do need to pay attention to the
               | consequences far from us.
        
               | llm_nerd wrote:
               | >there is still a whole bunch of coal power online in
               | Canada.
               | 
               | Ontario, Quebec, BC and Alberta, the four largest
               | provinces by population and a heady percentage of the
               | land area, have zero coal power generation facilities.
               | 
               | Ontario is mostly nuclear supported by hydro, with an
               | absolute fallback of natural gas. Quebec is
               | overwhelmingly hydro + wind. BC is mostly hydro. Alberta
               | is mostly non-renewables like natural gas, but phased out
               | its last coal plants.
               | 
               | If someone is in Canada, odds are extremely high that
               | there is no coal plant anywhere in their jurisdiction. I
               | also wouldn't say that there is a whole bunch of coal
               | power online -- they're an extreme exception now.
        
               | tialaramex wrote:
               | To me "a bunch" is when it'd be tedious to list them. For
               | a few years the UK had few enough that you could list
               | their names, then gradually four, three, two, one, none.
               | Canada as a whole isn't in that place yet, though it
               | doesn't have plans to build more of these plants and they
               | will gradually reach end of life or transition to burning
               | something else.
               | 
               | Coal isn't one of the "convenient" fossil fuels where you
               | might choose to run electrical generation off this fuel
               | rather than figure out how to deliver electricity to a
               | remote site, coal is bulky and annoying. Amundsen Scott
               | (the permanent base at the South Pole, IMO definition of
               | remote) runs on JP-8 (ie basically kerosene, jet fuel),
               | some places use gasoline or LNG. I don't expect hold outs
               | in terms of practicality for coal, it's just about
               | political will.
        
               | llm_nerd wrote:
               | "For a few years the UK had few enough that you could
               | list their names, then gradually four, three, two, one,
               | none"
               | 
               | Sure, it's embarrassing that we still have any coal
               | plants. But really, there are only eight small units
               | remaining, located in the provinces of Nova Scotia (4),
               | New Brunswick (1), and Saskatchewan (3). Every other
               | jurisdiction abolished them.
               | 
               | Maybe small nuclear will be the solution for these
               | holdouts. The fact that Alberta held onto coal for so
               | long, and never built a nuclear plant, was outrageous.
        
             | vixen99 wrote:
             | Especially when they are offshored to China.
             | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01308-x
        
             | cmxch wrote:
             | Those costs can be safely deemed as 0, especially when you
             | use Reed Elsevier.
        
           | adrianN wrote:
           | Panels have warranties of over twenty years now. They pay for
           | themselves much earlier. You probably have to replace the
           | inverter earlier, but that's not a huge expense. I don't know
           | anybody who lives in a place where it rains who cleans the
           | panels on their roof.
        
             | DetectDefect wrote:
             | Oh, okay. Does a warranty cover sweeping snow off your
             | panels and washing them many times throughout the years? I
             | guess if one does not value time, then solar panels could
             | be considered "free" - but this is a bizarre sacrifice.
        
               | boringg wrote:
               | You don't bother with the snow. Winter is low production
               | energy due to the suns positioning - it melts in the
               | spring and your back to producing. Most solar power is
               | between march - september anyways.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | Where are you getting this maintenance schedule from?
               | 
               | I haven't touched ours, they are clean and have been
               | going fine with zero maintenance, though admittedly it's
               | only been a year.
        
               | DetectDefect wrote:
               | > I haven't touched ours, they are clean and have been
               | going fine with zero maintenance, though admittedly it's
               | only been a year.
               | 
               | > Where are you getting this maintenance schedule from?
               | 
               | The solar panel owner does not know the required
               | maintenance they are now permanently responsible for.
               | Ibid, your honor.
        
               | rsynnott wrote:
               | As above, cleaning solar panels is generally close to
               | pointless.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | They are clean, I can see that and could wipe them if I
               | needed to. The power output is the same.
               | 
               | Where are you getting this maintenance schedule of yours
               | from?
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | > Where are you getting this maintenance schedule of
               | yours from?
               | 
               | Their "Anti-Solar Talking Points" handbook from Big Oil.
        
               | otterley wrote:
               | You're being extremely argumentative all over the
               | comments to this story. Do you yourself own any solar
               | panels? Your ceaseless naysaying constantly contradicts
               | people's lived experience (including mine) as owners.
               | 
               | Focus on solutions, not trying to be right. It's
               | aggravating.
        
               | rsynnott wrote:
               | > Your ceaseless naysaying constantly contradicts
               | people's lived experience (including mine) as owners.
               | 
               | Also, like, every study on this matter. The efficiency
               | drop from being dirty for vaguely modern solar panels is
               | _tiny_; below 5% and potentially below 1%.
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | Why do you think that level of maintenance is needed?
        
               | csoups14 wrote:
               | I got solar panels installed two years ago and I've
               | washed them once. I'm still getting great production. Are
               | you trying to convince yourself that maintaining solar
               | panels is difficult? Because it isn't.
        
               | DetectDefect wrote:
               | > I got solar panels installed two years ago
               | 
               | > I've washed them once.
               | 
               | > I'm still getting great production.
               | 
               | Thank you for reiterating my point.
        
               | csoups14 wrote:
               | So let me get this straight, I save hundreds of dollars a
               | month, I drive my cars "for free", I get paid at the end
               | of my net-metering year, and somehow this is a bad deal
               | because I've wanted (not needed) to wash my panels once?
               | It sounds like you optimize your life around not
               | maintaining the things around you which is fine, but I'd
               | much rather save thousands of dollars.
        
               | rsynnott wrote:
               | Washing solar panels _at all_ would be fairly unusual,
               | and arguably pretty pointless, particularly given they're
               | so cheap now; you're looking at, optimistically, a 5%
               | efficiency improvement, but many studies say more like 1%
               | in practice.
               | 
               | If you're in a place that gets significant snowfall such
               | that they're often covered then production during winter
               | is likely to be fairly marginal anyway, so may not be
               | worth your while.
        
               | darkwater wrote:
               | Lies. I'm using solar panels since 2022, still producing
               | same peak energy and not cleaned them once. Some
               | companies/electricians _will_ try to sell you a cleaning
               | and maintenance service for ~80-100EUR /year here but
               | it's basically throwing money.
        
               | eitally wrote:
               | I live in a fairly arid place (Bay Area) where it rains
               | in winter but gets quite dry and dusty in the summer.
               | I've had rooftop solar since 2016 and have noticed that
               | generation decreases by as much as 8-10% when the panels
               | are covered in summer dust.
        
               | nehal3m wrote:
               | I wonder if it's worth setting up a sort of sprinkler
               | system so you can easily clean it by opening a valve.
               | Maybe add a pipe with some holes in it to the top of the
               | panel, and some flexible hose to hook it up to the next
               | one.
        
           | munk-a wrote:
           | Roof maintenance is a need in Canada regardless of the
           | presence of solar. Solar roofs do demand additional
           | maintenance but the benefits over relying on natural gas for
           | power (which is the alternative in Canada outside ON/QC) is
           | worth it.
           | 
           | I will stand by your statement from the philosophical point
           | of view that nothing in life is free and everything has its
           | trade offs - but this is a pretty clear positive. In
           | addition, Canada has pretty decent workplace safety
           | enforcement for the sort of workers that'd be doing the
           | maintenance - it certainly isn't perfect but it is something
           | that Canadians seem to find important.
        
           | account42 wrote:
           | Yeah of course solar is cheap if you get everyone else to pay
           | for it.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | I've had the system 18 months now. I've never once cleared
           | snow or washed them. We get tons of snow.
           | 
           | Zero maintenance.
        
           | direwolf20 wrote:
           | Solar panels last practically forever. Despite the official
           | lifetimes of 25-30 years, that was a conservative estimate
           | for budgeting purposes, and they're still working after that
           | time, with moderately reduced efficiency (around 70-80%).
        
           | micromacrofoot wrote:
           | I've had my system for 10 years and maintenance has literally
           | been 0. Rain and snow clean the panels. Panels themselves
           | warrantied for 30 years but will likely last longer.
           | 
           | Roof-based panels also take on some roof wear, increasing
           | longevity of roofing as well.
        
         | ricardo81 wrote:
         | Canada is blessed with cheap energy, the abundance of hydro
         | surely helps to bridge any intermittency other renewables have.
         | I lived there 10 years back, your energy is less than half the
         | cost of mine in Scotland. In Scotland's case we're part of the
         | UK and the rest of the UK is less blessed with the geography
         | for hydro. The incumbent Scottish government also has an anti
         | stance to nuclear.
         | 
         | I hope the incentives for cleaner energy continue to stack up.
         | With the surge in demand from AI surely productivity will be
         | more tightly coupled with energy usage and cost.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | There is enough wind potential in Europe to power the world
           | [1]. Combined with interconnects to Europe and battery
           | storage, there is no reason power costs can't be driven down.
           | To not do so is a lack of will. Scotland currently generates
           | a surplus of renewables [2], exported. kieranmaine's sibling
           | comment citations dives into the lack of will part.
           | 
           | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38722022 (citations)
           | 
           | [2] _In Scotland, Renewable Power Has Outstripped Demand_ -
           | https://e360.yale.edu/digest/scotland-renewable-
           | energy-100-p... - January 30th, 2024
           | 
           | (at the rate it takes to deploy transmission, might as well
           | start dropping TBMs in the ground and let them grind towards
           | each other from interconnect landings, potentially faster
           | than the approval grind, complaints from locals about land
           | use and right of ways, etc)
        
           | kieranmaine wrote:
           | Related to UK energy I read this interesting article on
           | transmission congestion between Scotland and England and how
           | this is increasing energy costs due to curtailment of
           | renewables.
           | 
           | https://ukerc.ac.uk/news/transmission-network-
           | unavailability...
           | 
           | TL;DR - Until new interconnectors between Scotland and
           | England are finished in 2029, there will be significant
           | curtailment of Scottish wind power which increases costs.
           | 
           | This is also an interesting site for seeing curtailment per
           | wind farm - https://windtable.co.uk/data?farm=Seagreen
        
             | ricardo81 wrote:
             | It has been a long standing problem.
             | 
             | Ideas crop up like generating hydrogen with the curtailed
             | energy or maybe at least in Winter, use it for heat
             | generation. The problem would seem to be the capex and the
             | inverse of intermittency being the problem for them in
             | utilising that energy, i.e. waiting for curtailment.
             | 
             | At least with available hydro you can pump water back up
             | hill using a reliable and cheap tech.
        
               | patapong wrote:
               | I find it fascinating that we have not identified a use
               | for almost free intermittent electricity. You'd think
               | there would be plenty of things to do, but it seems like
               | with the capex investment things like smelting etc need
               | to always be running. Maybe electric car charging can
               | come to the rescue? But even there people need their cars
               | charged usually at certain fixed moments.
        
               | ricardo81 wrote:
               | Agree. It seems to be a fairly unique problem that
               | intermittent energy sources introduce.
               | 
               | Charging batteries definitely seems like part of the
               | solution and electricity tariffs that adapt to wholesale
               | costs on a shorter time basis help incentivise it. There
               | are times over weekends/holidays where the wholesale
               | price enters negative territory, essentially paying you
               | to charge your battery.
               | 
               | Electrolysing hydrogen to burn is inefficient vs that
               | kind of thing but at least acts as a battery itself,
               | though there's costs/problems in storing it.
               | 
               | And the general problem of how long do you need to store
               | energy vs what the weather forecast may be.
               | 
               | It seems like it's not a solved problem and it'd be
               | exciting to move towards a point where it is. Hard to
               | believe in the 50's they thought nuclear would solve
               | everything and would be "too cheap to meter"
        
               | kieranmaine wrote:
               | EV smart charging is a solved problem in the UK IMO, at
               | least for those with a parking space.
               | 
               | OVO[1] and Octopus[2] offer smart charging tariffs that
               | give EV owners reduced electricity rates.
               | 
               | The usual caveat is you can only benefit if you can
               | install a charger and park near that charger. Still,
               | based on this 2021 article [3] 65% of UK homes have at
               | least one off street space, so the potential for a
               | majority of homes to smart charge is there.
               | 
               | To extend the benefit of cheap smart charging to more
               | people, it would be good to see legislation that makes it
               | easier for leaseholders and renters to require the
               | installation of a smart charger where technically
               | possible.
               | 
               | 1. https://www.ovoenergy.com/electric-cars/charge-anytime
               | 2. https://octopus.energy/ev-tariffs/ 3.
               | https://www.racfoundation.org/media-centre/cars-
               | parked-23-ho...
        
             | hexbin010 wrote:
             | The UK will perpetually have "issues" that lead to higher
             | pricing. We just put up and pay. It is unspoken energy
             | policy to be expensive
             | 
             | Oh no we messed up nuclear oops sorry made it very
             | expensive. Pay up
             | 
             | Oops sorry we messed up transmission pay up
             | 
             | Oops sorry we let people get into huge energy debt pls pay
             | off their debt in your bill...
        
           | fullstop wrote:
           | Everything that I learned about energy in Scotland comes from
           | _Still Game_ , so I must ask -- how many bars?
        
             | amiga386 wrote:
             | "One bar's plenty!"
             | 
             | "Victor, it's gratis, get the three bloody bars on."
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUMCO8cFrPU
        
               | ricardo81 wrote:
               | 3 bars? gonnae no dae that.
        
               | fullstop wrote:
               | Put the bulb on. That suggests warmth.
        
           | JetSetWilly wrote:
           | In Scotland one issue is that the UK electricity market is
           | national (unlike in eg norway). So even if local supply is
           | very high and interconnects are not large enough to export to
           | england - we must pay the higher national rate. As octopus
           | ceo suggested if the UK energy market has regional pricing
           | then electricity in scotland would often be a lot cheaper and
           | in some cases industrial demand would move there. But that
           | would disadvantage the SE of England so will never happen.
           | 
           | Conversely, standing charges ARE regionalised - because that
           | does advantage the SE of England. Oh well!
        
         | Tepix wrote:
         | 450W-500W solar panels are as low as 52EUR here in Germany if
         | you buy a couple of them. Batteries are also very affordable
         | and I look forward to them getting a lot cheaper soon, thanks
         | to Sodium-Ion.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | The price of panels is falling so fast I don't think anyone
           | truly understands.
           | 
           | I paid nearly double that for our 450w panels 18 months ago.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | They are cheaper than fencing material, and will continue
             | to decline in price.
        
               | cromka wrote:
               | And, credit where credit is due, it's all thanks to
               | China.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | The one country that still produces goods rather than
               | switching to complete financialization!
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | "How are you so successful?" "Oh, well, we build you
               | know. It's a dying art. Have you tried it?"
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | Just to point out, but producing goods in exchange for
               | pieced of paper is a weak system, especially if it's
               | focus is export and not internal consumption, see
               | Germany, Japan, Italy or China, all slowing down due to
               | their reliance on exports.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | To stay strong, you have to keep exercising your muscles
               | or they will atrophy. To stay smart, you have to keep
               | exercising your brain. To be able to produce stuff, you
               | have to keep producing stuff no matter which country it
               | goes to.
        
               | lurk2 wrote:
               | 2022-11-28 - "About 2.6 million Uyghur and Kazakh people
               | have been subjected to coercion, "re-education programs"
               | and internment in the Xinjiang region of north-west
               | China, which is the source of 40-45% of the world's
               | solar-grade polysilicon. A report by the United Nations
               | office of the high commissioner for human rights three
               | months ago found Xinjiang was home to "serious human
               | rights violations", and the US has listed polysilicon
               | from China as a material likely to have been produced by
               | child or forced labour."
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/29/evide
               | nce...
               | 
               | 2024-08-27 - Indian solar panels face US scrutiny for
               | possible links to China forced labor
               | 
               | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-solar-
               | panels-...
               | 
               | 2025-04-30 - Human Rights in the Life Cycle of Renewable
               | Energy and Critical Minerals
               | 
               | https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/issue
               | s/c...
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | The US has forced [1] and child [2] labor as well. It's
               | certainly not welcome, but context is important when
               | casting the first stone.
               | 
               | [1] _Forced prison labor in the "Land of the Free"_ -
               | https://www.epi.org/publication/rooted-racism-prison-
               | labor/ - January 16th, 2025
               | 
               | [2] _[US] Child labor law violations are at their highest
               | in decades._ - https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-
               | society/2024/05/01/... - May 1st, 2024
               | 
               | (staunchly anti child and forced labor to be clear)
        
               | Analemma_ wrote:
               | I mean I don't exactly have great news for you about the
               | human rights situations in major oil-producing countries
               | either. Not to do whataboutism, but if your energy source
               | is going to implicate you in human rights abuses either
               | way, you might as well take the clean renewable one.
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | It's convenient the Islamic countries don't seem to mind
               | their coreligonists being persecuted here, especially as
               | these people haven't launched military invasions of
               | neighboring regions.
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | Islamic countries, especially the Arab ones barely said
               | anything in face of the genocide in Gaza.
               | 
               | Hell, more _journalists_ have died reporting in Gaza than
               | in WW2, Vietnam, Iraq and Afganistan combined and nobody
               | gives two damns.
        
             | foobarian wrote:
             | People keep saying that prices of panels keep falling, and
             | yet any time I look at getting panels on my roof the price
             | is the same $3/W it has been for 10 years already.
        
               | testing22321 wrote:
               | Buying the panels yourself, or an install company
               | supplying them?
               | 
               | What country?
               | 
               | In 10 years the price has fallen dramatically, you're
               | getting majorly ripped off.
        
           | choeger wrote:
           | The panel price doesn't matter. It's the installation and the
           | surroundings (electrical setup, converter, battery) that
           | determine the price nowadays.
        
         | boringg wrote:
         | What? No Canada isn't cheap solar power -- last I checked
         | rooftop ballasted solar is a 12-14 year payback on avoided
         | costs. Inverter will go beforehand and that excludes any op
         | costs. 8k$ free loan doesn't really provide as much value as
         | you would think.
         | 
         | FWIW - I am all for solar but selling rooftop solar in canada
         | as cheap and no-brainer is false.
         | 
         | 3-4 year payback would be a no brainer. 8-13 year payback with
         | an inverter upgrade and op-costs is definitely a decision that
         | needs to be thought out.
         | 
         | The grid you are offsetting is fairly green to begin with so
         | the net benefit is marginal.
         | 
         | If you are going to be isolated and put backup power into the
         | equation. You ROI tanks further but at least you have about a
         | day or two worth of energy in the storage asset.
        
           | aclatuts wrote:
           | Anything under $2.25/watt would put it within under a 4 year
           | payback period, Alberta has good rates for solar. Rooftop
           | solar doesn't have operating costs that I can think of unless
           | you want to clean them and clear snow which is optional. And
           | inverters usually have a 20-25 year warranty.
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | Inverters are 5-10 year warranty.
        
           | rngfnby wrote:
           | Largely agree, with one big nitpick.
           | 
           | Canada is a massive exporter of electricity to the USA. The
           | more clean energy CND produces the more there is to displace
           | North East's coal.
           | 
           | Of course, solar on Canadians' roof is a joke. A proper
           | regulatory regime would encourage solar in Arizona and
           | encourage lettuce Canada; not vice versa.
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | I don't disagree but the major energy being exported is
             | from hydro or nuclear. It isn't coming off rooftop even at
             | the margins. Rooftop solar is purely residential play.
             | 
             | If you are trying to argue that in aggregate the demand for
             | energy in canada drops because of high adoption of
             | residential solar which then passes off clean energy to the
             | US - its a reach. Also the amount of individual infra for
             | each small residential asset is probably not particularly
             | great return on investment - would be better to do as large
             | deployments.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | You know, when I was researching my system and if it would be
           | worthwhile there were literally dozens and dozens of people
           | who were adamant it couldn't work here. Too much snow, too
           | tight a valley, electricity already kinda cheap.
           | 
           | I went ahead anyway because I'm a "I'd rather have hard
           | numbers than speculation" person, and it was literally $0 of
           | my money.
           | 
           | Here we are 18 months later. I have all the hard data,
           | numbers and proof that this system will cost me $0 in the
           | short term, make me over $20,000 in the long term, requires
           | no maintenance and is great.
           | 
           | And yet there are still people like you telling me it can't
           | work.
           | 
           | I'm proving it does, very well. Panel prices are falling so
           | fast your "last time I looked into it" is woefully out of
           | date.
           | 
           | Why are you denying reality?
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | Talking about hard numbers without a real "hard number" in
             | your comment. 0$ upfront - how much did you pay for the
             | system / what is the size of the system / whats your
             | azimuth and what are you paying for electricity currently.
             | Its super easy to run the math on this stuff - not rocket
             | science - theres even a free to use API that generates your
             | monthly production estimates.
             | 
             | I run energy modeling - I ran the numbers last month with
             | the new programs and newest panel prices. 12-14 years
             | without any op costs and a 3% per year escalator on
             | electricity. You can get it down to 8 years if you have a
             | great spot without having to put on ballasts but it isn't
             | braindead yes for everyone (especially if they have to
             | watch their money).
             | 
             | Current price: 7.6 kW AC; Installed: 26,155.65 - 5,000
             | Grant = 21,155.65$. << Hard numbers.
        
               | testing22321 wrote:
               | The numbers are in my original post.
               | 
               | We got 7.6kw installed for $13,000 CAD. I ordered
               | everything myself, had a local installer do it on his
               | weekend, paid an electrician $180 to pull permits and
               | actually wire it into the main house panel. All
               | inspections complete and legal. $5000 grant $8000
               | interest free loan.
               | 
               | The system makes 7.76Mwh per calendar year. Electricity
               | here is 0.13/kwh, and already pre-approved go up minimum
               | 5% per year. It just went up 6% for 2026, 16% for those
               | out of town.
               | 
               | So the system makes right on $1000 of power every year
               | that I don't have to buy. We'll put that onto the loan
               | for 7-8 years , then get at least $1000 a year for the 20
               | or so years remaining of the system life.
               | 
               | I'm nothing out of pocket, and I'm just putting the same
               | into the loan for 7-8 years that I would have paid in
               | electricity anyway, so no difference.
               | 
               | No brainer.
               | 
               | My house now uses net zero energy ( disconnected natural
               | gas entirely)
               | 
               | I have no idea where you're getting a quote for so high.
               | Even the highest I got was ~$20k, and that was over 18
               | months ago.
        
               | boringg wrote:
               | Those numbers are pretty low for Canada (well done on
               | getting a good deal) - though it sounds like you are
               | doing all the work yourself so thats sweat equity and the
               | difference is the margins / work that installers put into
               | the equation.
               | 
               | I don't think what you are providing as an example is
               | what most people are doing. Most people are going through
               | residential installers and not doing all the effort you
               | did to bring down costs.
               | 
               | I commend your effort but it isn't what most people would
               | be doing or paying for and represent otherwise isn't
               | quite honest for people looking to get numbers for their
               | own install.
        
               | testing22321 wrote:
               | Friends got a near identical system just out of town
               | after seeing the success of ours.
               | 
               | Fully hands off solar company, $16.5k fully installed,
               | permitted, inspected for 7.6kw on the roof.
               | 
               | They also got the $5k rebate and $10k interest free loan.
               | Their power price just went up 16% in 2026, so they're
               | extremely happy to have the solar to insulate them from
               | that.
               | 
               | Of course the panels are now a good bit cheaper than when
               | I bought them, and cheaper than when my friend did
               | already.
        
         | PunchyHamster wrote:
         | We have similar problem with prices being high despise
         | renewable energy being cheap ;/
        
         | dyauspitr wrote:
         | What is the underlying reason in the US though? You would think
         | if they are artificially inflated prices the market would fix
         | that. What I've found is that a large part of the cost is the
         | actual labor for the installation, how are other developed
         | countries getting around this?
        
           | account42 wrote:
           | Mostly by giving people free money to install them so they go
           | on the internet to say how cheap they are.
        
             | amanaplanacanal wrote:
             | That might be cheaper than grid upgrades though. Even
             | though some people might get upset that somebody else is
             | getting something for free.
        
           | philipkglass wrote:
           | It's mostly due to higher "soft costs" such as
           | complicated/slow permitting and high customer acquisition
           | costs. Australia has a higher minimum wage but much lower
           | costs to get a rooftop system installed.
           | 
           | "How to cut U.S. residential solar costs in half"
           | 
           | https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/11/how-to-cut-u-s-
           | reside...
           | 
           |  _Birch points to Australia, where he said the average 7 kW
           | solar array with a 7 kW battery costs $14,000. That equates
           | to $2.02 per W, with batteries included._
           | 
           |  _"You can sell it on Tuesday and install it on Wednesday,
           | there's no red tape, no permitting delays," said Birch._
           | 
           | ...
           | 
           |  _In the United States, that same solar and battery
           | installation averages $36,000, said Birch. Permitting alone
           | can take two to six months, and the cost per watt of a solar
           | plus storage installation is up to 2.5 times the Australian
           | price, landing at $5.18 per W._
        
             | testing22321 wrote:
             | Those numbers for Australia are very out of date.
             | 
             | My Dad in Australia just got 10.6kw fully installed and
             | running for $4,000 AUD
        
               | dyauspitr wrote:
               | Was this on his roof? Were there government subsidies?
        
               | testing22321 wrote:
               | Yes and yes
               | 
               | Australia is spending tax dollars to get solar on every
               | roof in the country instead of building coal or nuke
               | plants. Now people are getting free power as a result.
        
               | dyauspitr wrote:
               | I wish we did that.
        
         | AnotherGoodName wrote:
         | >Australia has so much electricity during the day they're
         | talking about making I free for everyone in the middle of the
         | day.
         | 
         | Not just talking about it, if you get a smart meter and sign up
         | for a plan that matches the grid rates you can actually be paid
         | to take electricity during the day right now.
         | 
         | If you're wondering "couldn't you just make bank with a
         | battery" yes you can. In fact Australia dominates the world in
         | grid connected storage (per capita) and this chart itself is
         | actually out of date (it's growing even faster than shown).
         | 
         | https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/top-20-countries-by-ba...
         | 
         | I'll also point out that gas and oil generation has declined
         | rapidly.
         | 
         | https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-rise-of-battery-storage-and-...
         | 
         | For anyone that thinks renewables can't phase out peaker plants
         | it happens very naturally and rapidly once there's enough solar
         | to set rates negative in the day.
        
           | bmelton wrote:
           | How is it that people haven't turned to bitcoin mining (or
           | similarly large energy dumps) during the daytime?
        
         | dataviz1000 wrote:
         | > Solar prices in the US are criminal, protecting oil and gas
         | who bought all the politicians.
         | 
         | It would be worth including control of the people who vote for
         | the politicians by direct investment such as when the oil
         | producing Saudis bought the second largest stake in NewCorps
         | which controls FoxNews controlling the content that influences
         | voters. And, less than ethical control using bots on social
         | media by Russia.
         | 
         | A lot of what influences "solar prices in the US" is controlled
         | by foreign oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia
         | controlling content and media consumed by American voters.
        
           | apercu wrote:
           | I agree wholeheartedly, and the technocrats are complicit
           | with the GOP here.
           | 
           | It's funny how "free markets" keep producing the most
           | expensive solar prices in the developed world. Don't get me
           | started on Healthcare (I just moved back to the U.S. a couple
           | years ago after 18 years in Canada, what a cluster*ck).
           | 
           | Oil and gas buy politicians, foreign oil money buys media
           | influence, and social-media bots keep voters angry at the
           | wrong targets.
           | 
           | Saudi capital helps shape the messaging, Russia helps amplify
           | the noise, and Americans get stuck paying more for clean
           | energy while being told it's patriotic.
           | 
           | But hey, Make America Great Again, right?
        
             | sl_convertible wrote:
             | If even a Democratically-led California is doing this, how
             | can you point fingers at just the GOP? It's endemic to the
             | system, and not restricted to just one party.
        
               | daveguy wrote:
               | Republicans are always trying to increase and protect oil
               | subsidizes, cheer "drill baby drill", and have social
               | media tools peddling their bs who are funded by foreign
               | influence campaigns. The Democats may not be perfect, but
               | they are much more likely to cut oil subsidies or at
               | least subsidize solar and other renewables to balance.
               | This is especially true as the next generation takes over
               | by primarying the tepid fossils currently in office.
               | Meanwhile, dear leader Dumpty likes to suggest windmills
               | cause cancer because he doesn't like what they look like
               | on the horizon of his golf dumps. Saying this is a "both
               | sides" problem is laughable.
        
               | vjvjvjvjghv wrote:
               | Fly over Texas and the California and compare the number
               | of solar and wind installations you see.
        
               | daveguy wrote:
               | Yup. 46.8 GW photovoltaic in California and 22.8 GW
               | photovoltaic in Texas. Over twice as much PV in
               | California even though they have higher standards for new
               | construction in general than Texas does.
        
             | JuniperMesos wrote:
             | The US doesn't have a free market in either health care or
             | electricity generation. An actual free market in solar
             | power would probably result in more or less what we are
             | seeing with the actual highly regulated market in
             | electricity, namely extremely cheap prices for additonal
             | solar energy in the middle of the day when the sun is
             | shining, higher prices for additonal solar energy in the
             | evening when demand is high and the sun has gone down, and
             | some fixed cost to pay for physical electric grid
             | infrastructure that needs maintenance regardless of whether
             | it is being used at any particular moment.
             | 
             | Oil and gas don't buy polticians more than any other
             | industry does, but voters do get particularly angry at
             | politicians when the price they pay for energy suddenly
             | spikes.
        
             | philistine wrote:
             | When you can influence the citizens of Rome for dimes on
             | the dollar, why not steer the empire in the direction that
             | benefits you?
        
           | vondur wrote:
           | Here in California, they drastically cut back on the price
           | that you get for solar powered electricity from homeowners.
           | It used to be around $0.30/kWh at any time of day and now
           | it's can drop to $0.00-$0.05/kWh during the day when the
           | state is sunny. If you can afford to have a battery
           | installed, the rates are far better as you can either run off
           | the battery when rates are the highest in the evening, or you
           | can export it back to the grid when prices are much higher.
        
             | barney54 wrote:
             | That's because net metering is a transfer from people who
             | can't afford solar to the rich people who can.
             | https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2024/04/22/californias-
             | ex...
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Which is true. But it's a rug pull for people who spent
               | money on their panels expecting an RoI. Were existing
               | installations grandfathered in?
        
               | throwworhtthrow wrote:
               | Yes, existing installations get 20 years of grandfathered
               | rates [1].
               | 
               | Which makes it more of a ladder pull than a rug pull...
               | 
               | [1] https://www.sce.com/clean-energy-efficiency/solar-
               | generating...
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | That's fine. If we have enough X then stop paying people
               | to build more X.
        
               | Analemma_ wrote:
               | The first round of people paid way more for their solar
               | panels though, and those higher prices helped bootstrap
               | the industry. Should people who paid much less for panels
               | get the same reward? I'm having trouble getting outraged
               | about this, it seems to be incentives working exactly as
               | they should.
        
               | throwworhtthrow wrote:
               | I agree, and maybe my "ladder pull" comment comes off as
               | too negative. Most early solar buyers were either in it
               | for environmental reasons or for a modest return on
               | investment. I don't think many were expecting a windfall.
        
               | pkaye wrote:
               | Solar has become all about ROI these days just like home
               | ownership has become an investment.
        
             | JuniperMesos wrote:
             | The price is signaling that additional solar power
             | production during the day isn't very useful; and additonal
             | solar power production in the early evening when demand is
             | high and the sun isn't shining and you need a battery
             | system to have already been accumulating energy during the
             | day is useful, albeit more expensive and complicated to
             | build and run.
        
               | pstuart wrote:
               | With falling battery prices this should be an addressable
               | problem. Soak up the locally generated excess energy and
               | sell it later in the day when the need is there.
               | Electrical arbitrage seems like a win/win solution for
               | the utilities their customers.
        
             | idiotsecant wrote:
             | Residential solar is completely counter-productive right
             | now in california. Just take a look at the CAISO price maps
             | during the day when the sun is shining. There's so much
             | power they are paying people to consume it. It's a
             | _negative_ force for grid stability. Getting paid for
             | making the grid less stable is ridiculous. Until there is
             | widespread battery storage or massively improved
             | transmission and distribution systems grid-tied residential
             | solar is a solution in search of a problem.
        
           | yosefk wrote:
           | The list of the oil producers listed and omitted on a given
           | forum in these contexts is always interesting. On HN it is
           | often SA or Russia, and almost never Qatar or Iran.
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | I'm kinda tired of the argument where we only focus on some
           | bad actors when it comes to online influencing.
           | 
           | Our countries absolutely do the same if not more to influence
           | voters both here and in these other countries, especially
           | online.
        
         | ApolloFortyNine wrote:
         | >Solar prices in the US are criminal, protecting oil and gas
         | who bought all the politicians. >Canada here. 7.6kw on our roof
         | for $0 out of pocket thanks to $5k grant and $8k interest free
         | loan.
         | 
         | This very well may be true, but taken at face value Canada
         | seems to be paying you around $7k to install solar panels on
         | your roof (that's 8k interest free loan is losing out to
         | inflation + any interest it would have earned).
         | 
         | Definitely a great deal if you own a home, if I was a
         | renter/condo owner I'd be annoyed that everyone is subsidizing
         | your free solar however.
        
           | Zigurd wrote:
           | Be less annoyed because utility demand declines.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | > _if I was a renter /condo owner I'd be annoyed that
           | everyone is subsidizing your free solar however._
           | 
           | As a non car owner are you annoyed everyone gets subsidized
           | roads?
           | 
           | Are you annoyed corn farmers get subsidies for growing corn?
           | 
           | Would you be annoyed if people got subsidized life saving
           | health care?
           | 
           | It feels like the US can't have nice things because people
           | are hell bent on others not having nice things.
           | 
           | What a shame.
        
             | _aavaa_ wrote:
             | > As a non car owner are you annoyed everyone gets
             | subsidized roads?
             | 
             | Yes, and people should be annoyed by this given the
             | underfunding, poor urban planning, and outright hostility
             | by many local governments against anything that dares
             | encroach on the sanctity of car culture.
        
               | simion314 wrote:
               | >Yes, and people should be annoyed by this
               | 
               | So you do not use busses,taxi or road travel? do you fly
               | all the time? Do you have stuff delivered by truck/cars
               | or only by air? What about shopping? do you think the
               | items you buy or the things needed to make those items
               | use roads ? In a perfect extremist capitalist word there
               | would be a road tax included in the products and services
               | so you would still pay the text for the roads.
        
               | swsieber wrote:
               | No, in a perfect world, there would be a use tax, and
               | those doing the delivery would pay the cost, and then
               | pass that cost on to you. You might have meant it that
               | way, but it sounded more like a gov. imposed tax based on
               | the price of goods or something.
        
               | _aavaa_ wrote:
               | > So you do not use busses,taxi or road travel? do you
               | fly all the time? Do you have stuff delivered by
               | truck/cars or only by air? What about shopping? do you
               | think the items you buy or the things needed to make
               | those items use roads ? In a perfect extremist capitalist
               | word there would be a road tax included in the products
               | and services so you would still pay the text for the
               | roads.
               | 
               | "Yet you participate in society, curious!"
               | 
               | > In a perfect extremist capitalist word there would be a
               | road tax included
               | 
               | There's nothing capitalist about that. Driving around and
               | polluting the environment is currently done for free.
               | That should be taxed. Highways and streets are by and
               | large (in NA) used as a publicly subsidized private good
               | at the expense of everyone else. Subsidized to the
               | detriment of all because it pulls funding away from
               | public transit that would move more people, prioritizing
               | convenience of drivers over the safety of everyone else
               | (to say nothing of it creating dead spaces with nothing
               | but parking as far as the eye can see).
        
               | simion314 wrote:
               | Public transport uses the roads too. In my country
               | Romania there are road taxes included in the fuel prices
               | and there are vehicle tax that is proportionalw itht eh
               | engine size and vehicle age and how mych it pollutes. So
               | people that drive more use more fuel and pay more tax. If
               | you use your bike then you will not pay that taxes, now
               | what should we tax for the bike lanes ? And how should we
               | convert he fuel road tax for electric cars ?
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | Trucks are responsible for 99% of road damage and only
               | pay 38% of the costs.
               | 
               | https://truecostblog.com/2009/06/02/the-hidden-trucking-
               | indu...
               | 
               | Yes, the costs should be apportioned to those who are
               | making them. If the bus causes the most road damage, then
               | it should be charged. Then it'll make financial sense to
               | invest in rail. Financial incentives are how capitalism
               | works and the purpose of governments under capitalism is
               | to apply externalities to the source causing them.
        
               | rfrey wrote:
               | Should cyclists be charged a special tax for bike lane
               | construction and maintenance? What about sidewalks,
               | should you need a pedestrian pass?
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | 1. As soon as the roads are all paying best-possible-use
               | property tax for the space they take up and it's
               | completely paid by automobiles, in addition to all
               | maintenance, we should try to proportionally assign
               | dedicated bicycle infrastructure costs toward bicycle
               | users, now and anticipated.
               | 
               | 2. Everyone is a pedestrian.
        
               | rfrey wrote:
               | People accuse communists of being unrealistic idealists,
               | but they have nothing on the libertarians.
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | That's the first I've heard of a
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax (and, less
               | directly, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism ) being
               | libertarian!
               | 
               | fuck cars
        
               | rfrey wrote:
               | User pay formerly-public-infrastructure is what I
               | identified as libertarian. Would you also advocate for
               | residents of high crime areas to pay more taxes for
               | police coverage?
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | "User pay" is typically associated with regressive per-
               | use taxes. It's perfectly compatible with socialism to
               | ensure the cost of the road system is applied to only
               | automobile users in a progressive manner. Relatedly,
               | Finland moving violation fines are not a fixed fee and
               | are proportional to income: https://nri.today/wealthy-
               | speedsters-beware-finlands-million... Stop thinking
               | "cars=default", they are not.
               | 
               | Legally criminal actions are violations against the
               | state, which is why a prosecutor decides whether to file
               | charges and does not need the consent of the victim to do
               | so. We already have what you suggest with civil law and
               | private security.
        
               | ndsipa_pomu wrote:
               | It'd be interesting to try charging vehicles relative to
               | the road damage they do as it's proportional to around
               | the fourth power of weight. It would likely change the
               | nature of logistics as it could mean that large trucks
               | would be more expensive that using two or three smaller
               | trucks. Similarly, buses would benefit from being smaller
               | and lighter.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | Trucks already have lots of axles and wheels for this
               | reason, because it's weight per wheel that matters.
        
               | bjackman wrote:
               | "Car culture" and "public roads" are not the same thing.
               | 
               | I'm a militant cyclist and I'm extremely unhappy with the
               | state of urban planning in the world. But... Roads are a
               | really good thing and I'm glad my government builds them.
               | 
               | I just wish they'd built them a bit differently, at least
               | in the city.
        
             | sneak wrote:
             | Yes, yes, and yes. Is it an intentional mischaracterization
             | to conflate not wanting wealth redistribution with "others
             | not having nice things"?
             | 
             | "others not having nice things" is a superset of "others
             | not having unearned nice things".
        
               | NetMageSCW wrote:
               | I don't see where roads are unearned?
        
             | ApolloFortyNine wrote:
             | Why are you acting like subsidizing a homeowners free power
             | is like any of these?
             | 
             | If I instead phrase it as "I'd rather subsidize someone's
             | health care than pay for your free electricity", would that
             | help you understand that there tends to be a priority
             | system when spending tax dollars?
             | 
             | You don't have infinite tax dollars to spend after all.
        
             | JuniperMesos wrote:
             | > Are you annoyed corn farmers get subsidies for growing
             | corn?
             | 
             | Yes we should immediately end these subsidies.
             | 
             | > It feels like the US can't have nice things because
             | people are hell bent on others not having nice things.
             | 
             | The US as a whole has lots of nice things. And sometimes
             | the things the US has are not as nice as they could be
             | because an unwise subsidy is paying for something inferior,
             | and a small group of people who financially benefit from
             | the subsidy advocate politically against changing it.
        
           | embedding-shape wrote:
           | > Definitely a great deal if you own a home, if I was a
           | renter/condo owner I'd be annoyed that everyone is
           | subsidizing your free solar however.
           | 
           | What kind of selfish point of view is this? Don't you want
           | people to use energy sources that are better for our entire
           | world, even if it costs you like $10 more in taxes per year?
           | Seems like a no brainer deal if you like "the outside" and
           | you want it to still be there.
           | 
           | I'm a renter, been all my life, I'd be happy to pay more in
           | taxes if it means more solar panels for everyone except me.
           | But I also feel the same about elder care, health care and a
           | bunch of other things, do you feel the same for those things
           | too, or this is specifically about solar or owning vs
           | renting?
        
             | sneak wrote:
             | There is nothing more unjust than forcing someone to buy
             | something they do not want simply because you think it
             | would be good for them.
             | 
             | > _Seems like a no brainer deal_
             | 
             | This is opinion, not fact. I happen to share your opinion,
             | but enshrining opinions in law is almost always going to
             | violate someone's consent.
        
               | yen223 wrote:
               | I feel like it's worse to force someone to buy something
               | they do not want, knowing full well it's going to
               | materially harm them
        
               | sneak wrote:
               | We are in agreement.
        
               | embedding-shape wrote:
               | > There is nothing more unjust than forcing someone to
               | buy something they do not want simply because you think
               | it would be good for them.
               | 
               | Who said that? Taxes are what you pay to be a member of
               | the society you live, and also to help those less
               | fortunate, like your neighbors. You can skip paying
               | those, if you stop living in society, many done that
               | before, and it is still possible.You can't possibly see
               | taxes as "forcing someone to buy something they do not
               | want" right? Two completely different things.
               | 
               | And yes, this is all my opinion, like most comments on
               | HN.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | > You can skip paying those, if you stop living in
               | society, many done that before, and it is still possible.
               | 
               | Actually, generally speaking this is almost certainly not
               | possible for more than short periods of time.
        
               | embedding-shape wrote:
               | It certainly is possible, people do it all the time, in
               | various countries. Most of the time we call them
               | "homeless", but also there are people who literally set
               | up camp in the forest then stay there, it isn't unheard
               | of.
               | 
               | The book "The Stranger in the Woods" is one such case,
               | about a man who lived in the woods for 27 years by
               | himself.
               | 
               | That said, it isn't easy, and it's harder in some
               | countries than others, but I'd still say it's possible in
               | many countries today, YMMV.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | And they still benefit from taxes.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | Nothing like the exception for proving the rule ...
        
               | vegadw wrote:
               | > This is opinion, not fact
               | 
               | Not OP, but it wasn't presented as a fact. Literally used
               | the word Seams.
               | 
               | > There is nothing more unjust than forcing someone to
               | buy something they do not want simply because you think
               | it would be good for them
               | 
               | Seatbelts? Circuit breakers? Literally any safety
               | equipment. You're required to have them because it's not
               | just good for you, but expensive to society if hospital
               | beds are low or there's not enough firetrucks to go
               | around.
               | 
               | Similarly, if you're polluting more than you have to be
               | due to the source of your electricity, that's bad for
               | everyone. I also rent, but I still understand that it's
               | to the public's benefit that home owners (a class that is
               | already above me in assets and wealth) be given
               | motivation to consume cleaner energy if I don't want to
               | have the climate get even worse. It's the same thing,
               | just the effects feel less direct. That doesn't make them
               | any less valid.
        
               | amalcon wrote:
               | This is a failure of imagination. There are plenty of
               | things that are more unjust than that.
        
             | ApolloFortyNine wrote:
             | >I'm a renter, been all my life, I'd be happy to pay more
             | in taxes if it means more solar panels for everyone except
             | me. But I also feel the same about elder care, health care
             | and a bunch of other things, do you feel the same for those
             | things too, or this is specifically about solar or owning
             | vs renting?
             | 
             | There's an alternative, and almost certainly cheaper per
             | watt with cost of scale, where your tax dollars go to a new
             | solar farm instead, something everyone could take advantage
             | of.
        
               | embedding-shape wrote:
               | Why not both? One works better for people not living in
               | cities, and the other one better for high-density areas.
        
               | ApolloFortyNine wrote:
               | >One works better for people not living in cities
               | 
               | It's not as if homes outside of cities have their own
               | diesel generators to power their house.
               | 
               | (Since I'm guessing from this line of comments you'll
               | point out the less than 1% of people who actually do do
               | this, maybe it's better to focus only the 99% here).
        
               | embedding-shape wrote:
               | > It's not as if homes outside of cities have their own
               | diesel generators to power their house.
               | 
               | Yeah, no true, I don't understand the point/argument
               | though?
               | 
               | More people relying on renewables == long term better for
               | everyone on the planet
               | 
               | That includes moving people outside of cities to
               | renewables energy sources, is your point that this isn't
               | so important because they're a small piece of the
               | population usually?
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | Because you get far higher ROI for the large-scale
               | installations. In case you weren't familiar, Canada has a
               | lot of other things which need the money than paying 5x
               | per watt to subsidize panels on your roof instead of on
               | the ground.
        
               | embedding-shape wrote:
               | > Because you get far higher ROI for the large-scale
               | installations.
               | 
               | Right, but as always, ROI is hardly the most important
               | thing in life, there is more considerations than just
               | "makes more money". For example, as someone affected by a
               | day long country-wide electricity outage where
               | essentially the entire country was without electricity
               | and internet for ~14 hours or something, decentralizing
               | energy across the country seems much more important, than
               | optimizing for the highest ROI.
               | 
               | But again, this is highly contextual and depends, I'm not
               | as sure as you that there are absolute answers to these
               | things.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Grid-scale solar installations can be much more
               | decentralized than nuclear or natural gas power plants.
               | 
               | Decentralizing through subsidies at the homeowner level
               | is maybe not the best use of money.
        
               | coryrc wrote:
               | Grid-tied solar is fragile. If the grid is not nearly-
               | perfect, it won't generate. It will not help society as a
               | whole.
               | 
               | If you personally have battery backup, that helps you
               | personally and you should pay for it, just like you might
               | pay extra to turn up the heat while I keep it lower to
               | save money.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | In Canada (or the US) the grid is reliable and so you can
               | ignore when it isn't working. This doesn't apply
               | everywhere in the world
        
               | alex_young wrote:
               | Everyone can take advantage of rooftop solar. The power
               | goes into the grid. This isn't a zero sum game. We need
               | both.
        
               | JuniperMesos wrote:
               | It's not zero sum but different physical layouts of
               | energy generation do have different captial and operating
               | costs. Rooftop solar power goes into the grid but maybe
               | not at the most ideal time and scale for the grid
               | operators, which justifiably affects what price they're
               | willing to pay for that power, which justifiably affects
               | the ROI for homeowners with rooftop solar panels.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | What's the difference between a new solar farm and new
               | solar panels on roofs (or the ground) ?
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | The solar farm produces more energy per dollar spent.
               | Rooftop solar is expensive. It produces comparatively
               | fewer kw to amortize the fixed costs over - permitting,
               | getting up on the roof etc.
               | 
               | If a country has abundant land and expensive labor, the
               | money is probably best spent improving grid transmission
               | capacity and otherwise getting the f- out of the way of
               | utility-scale renewables. Places like Pakistan, which is
               | going through a rooftop solar boom, are arguably the
               | opposite - scarce land in the cities, but cheap labor to
               | get up on roofs.
               | 
               | Happy to hear any analyses to the contrary and update my
               | knowledge accordingly.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | OK, so rooftop solar is a higher <currency-unit>/kW solar
               | farm. That's one argument against it.
               | 
               | On the other hand, it is also distributed which from some
               | perspectives is a benefit, and is also do-able with very
               | little planning and grid extension. So that's one
               | argument for it.
               | 
               | How things come out on balance depends a bit on what you
               | value and how you imagine the future.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | The generation is distributed. That only benefits the
               | people who have panels on their rooftops. If we want them
               | to share the excess with others during a power outage it
               | requires further grid investment.
               | 
               | I think homeowners should install solar panels and
               | batteries where it makes economic sense. If there's money
               | left over after funding utility-scale solar then it
               | should be used for EV incentives and/or funding
               | electrified mass transit. The whole point is to electrify
               | everything rapidly and reduce carbon emissions.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | Solar farms don't work during power outages either. When
               | the power isn't out, you get to use the power from your
               | neighbor's solar panel.
        
               | margalabargala wrote:
               | You absolutely do not want them sharing the excess with
               | neighbors during a power outage, this is how you get dead
               | linemen.
               | 
               | Solar panel grid tied inverters generally will refuse to
               | function if there's no external power coming in.
               | 
               | The benefit from the distributed generation means that if
               | your local area has large loads added you don't
               | necessarily need to upgrade the HVDC lines from the power
               | plant to accommodate.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Upvoted.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | This is not as big a problem as it sounds - you cannot
               | provides enough power for you neighbors and so your
               | breakers (fuses) will cut power long before the lineman
               | gets there.
               | 
               | though linemen are trained that they are working on a
               | live line unless they have personally shorted it out.
               | There are many other ways a seemingly dead line can be
               | live so they don't take a chance.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | > This is not as big a problem as it sounds - you cannot
               | provides enough power for you neighbors and so your
               | breakers (fuses) will cut power long before the lineman
               | gets there.
               | 
               | The load side (your neighbors) _cannot_ pull more power
               | than is being generated. My 7kW array can generate 7kW
               | and no more. No breakers will trip in a hypothetical
               | scenario where my inverter fails to shut down during an
               | outage, and my neighbors are trying to drawing 10kW.
        
               | dangjc wrote:
               | Rooftop solar has lower distribution costs. A solar farm
               | needs new transmission and upgraded capacity distribution
               | lines to get the power from far away to the users.
               | Generating solar right next to your neighbors lets them
               | access your surplus cheap power with existing slack
               | capacity in the distribution lines. Our current monopoly
               | utilities don't have a mechanism to recognize that value
               | created, and they would prefer to keep building more
               | infrastructure as that's what increases profits for them.
        
             | woodruffw wrote:
             | As a renter, I'm moderately more in favor of utility-scale
             | solar subsidies rather than subsidizing private solar. It
             | seems like another way to make the arrangement more "fair"
             | is to subsidize private solar, but credit the grid up to
             | the original grant's amount. In other words, in the GP's
             | case, they would only get $1000/year in free money for 15
             | years instead of 20.
             | 
             | (This is very low on my list of things that I care about,
             | to be clear.)
        
             | SamPatt wrote:
             | >I'm a renter, been all my life, I'd be happy to pay more
             | in taxes if it means more solar panels for everyone except
             | me.
             | 
             | That's because you're rich like most people on HN.
             | 
             | Environmental protection is a luxury good. This has been
             | proven time and time again.
             | 
             | A great reason to prioritize growth and wealth creation.
             | Poor countries don't make those tradeoffs, they're worried
             | about survival not what percentage of their energy usage is
             | renewable.
        
               | embedding-shape wrote:
               | > That's because you're rich like most people on HN.
               | 
               | Probably, but I also haven't been rich all my life, I've
               | also been broke and borderline homeless, and my point of
               | view of paying taxes so others get helped, hasn't changed
               | since then. In fact, probably the reason my perspective
               | is what it is, is because money like that has helped me
               | when I was poor, and I'd like to ensure we continue doing
               | that for others.
               | 
               | And I agree, poor countries can't afford to think about
               | "luxury problems" like the pollution in the world, but
               | since we're talking about people living in such countries
               | where we can afford about these problems, lets do that,
               | so the ones who can't, don't have to. Eventually they'll
               | catch up, and maybe at that point we can make it really
               | easy for them to transition to something else?
        
               | youngtaff wrote:
               | > A great reason to prioritize growth and wealth
               | creation. Poor countries don't make those tradeoffs,
               | they're worried about survival not what percentage of
               | their energy usage is renewable.
               | 
               | Tell that to places like Pakistan where solar is allowing
               | people to have cheaper electricity without connecting to
               | the grid
        
               | SamPatt wrote:
               | That's exactly my point. They're making decisions based
               | on their economic reality not sacrificing for
               | environmental principles like the above commenter.
               | 
               | Solar is great. It can stand on its own without
               | subsidies.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | > They're making decisions based on their economic
               | reality not sacrificing for environmental principles
               | 
               | You don't know this, and to some degree likely cannot
               | know this.
        
               | SamPatt wrote:
               | At an individual level? Agreed.
               | 
               | But at a national level the data is compelling. I'm
               | convinced by the Environmental Kuznets Curve.
        
               | jgraham wrote:
               | > But at a national level the data is compelling. I'm
               | convinced by the Environmental Kuznets Curve.
               | 
               | Which data do you find compelling?
               | 
               | For people who don't know the Environmental Kuznets Curve
               | is basically the hypothesis that as economies grow past a
               | certain they naturally start to cause less environmental
               | damage.
               | 
               | As far as I can tell the main empirical evidence in
               | favour of this is the fact that some western countries
               | have managed to maintain economic growth whilst making
               | reductions to their carbon emissions. This has, of
               | course, partially been driven by offshoring especially
               | polluting industries, but also as a result of
               | technological developments like renewable energy, and
               | BEVs.
               | 
               | On the other hand, taking a global sample it's still
               | rather clear that there's a strong correlation between
               | wealth and carbon emissions, both at the individual scale
               | and at the level of countries.
               | 
               | It's also clear that a lot of the gains that have been
               | made in, say, Europe have been low-hanging fruit that
               | won't be easy to repeat. For example migrating off coal
               | power has a huge impact, but going from there to a fully
               | clean grid is a larger challenge.
               | 
               | We also know that there are a bunch of behaviours that
               | come with wealth which have a disproportionately negative
               | effect on the environment. For example, rich people
               | (globally) consume more meat, and take more flights.
               | Those are both problems without clear solutions.
               | 
               | (FWIW I agree that solar power is somewhat regressive,
               | but just for the normal "Vimes Boots Theory" reasons that
               | anyone who is able to install solar will save money in
               | the medium term. That requires the capital for the
               | equipment -- which is rapidly getting cheaper -- but also
               | the ability to own land or a house to install the
               | equipment on. The latter favours the already well off.
               | There are similar problems with electric cars having
               | higher upfront costs but lower running costs. The correct
               | solution is not to discourage people from using things,
               | but to take the cost of being poor into account in other
               | areas of public policy).
        
               | jvergeldedios wrote:
               | There is line that connects gov't subsidies in wealthy
               | countries for the last 50 years funding private R&D to
               | poorer countries being able to afford it. Arguably the
               | poorer countries don't get to make the "decisions based
               | on economic reality" in favor of solar without the
               | subsidies in wealthy countries happening first. There is
               | also an argument to be made that the R&D isn't finished
               | and it still makes sense to subsidize it to drive the
               | cost down further.
        
               | phil21 wrote:
               | > There is also an argument to be made that the R&D isn't
               | finished and it still makes sense to subsidize it to
               | drive the cost down further.
               | 
               | Maybe there is an argument to be made, but it sounds like
               | a very poor one if poor countries are now putting up
               | solar panels because it's the cheapest form of energy
               | production. Sounds like subsidizing the same panels going
               | up on houses is a bit silly now that the costs have
               | shifted so much.
               | 
               | The argument can probably be made for direct subsidies of
               | R&D for bleeding edge solar tech, and perhaps even
               | battery installations to get volume up. Or maybe even
               | subsidizing local production vs. buying everything from
               | China.
               | 
               | The arguments for wealthy countries to subsidize their
               | wealthiest citizens to install solar for personal gain
               | seems rather weak at this point in the game. It certainly
               | made sense 20 years ago, but in most areas where it makes
               | economic sense to begin with solar penetration has hit a
               | tipping point.
        
               | tonyarkles wrote:
               | Keep in mind the standard of living. If you're in a
               | country that experiences routine long power outages,
               | having a solar panel that you can use to charge your
               | phone during the day is pretty great. Having to get ahold
               | of and burn diesel fuel is not so great. Doesn't produce
               | at night? Doesn't matter much, it's better than nothing.
        
               | philipkglass wrote:
               | Solar hardware is so affordable now that it's booming
               | even in poorer countries. The most remarkable recent
               | example is Pakistan, which has seen explosive growth of
               | rooftop solar power, most of it receiving no government
               | subsidies:
               | 
               |  _Pakistan has imported almost 45 gigawatts worth of
               | solar panels over the last five or six years, which is
               | equal to the total capacity of its electricity grid.
               | Almost 34 gigawatts have come in only in the last couple
               | of years._
               | 
               |  _It's a very bottom-up revolution. This is not
               | government deciding this is the route to take. And it's
               | not being driven by climate concerns, it's all about the
               | economics. Renewables are out-competing the traditional
               | sources of energy._
               | 
               | https://e360.yale.edu/features/pakistan-solar-boom
        
               | SamPatt wrote:
               | Yes it's awesome to see solar adoption without subsidies.
               | Wonderful technology. Decentralized energy production is
               | powerful.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Right, so that implies there's no need for homeowner
               | subsidies in wealthy, developed countries.
        
               | zdp7 wrote:
               | Not really, unless you are just guessing. A quick read
               | shows that solar gained popularity because of an
               | unreliable grid and a removal of subsidies on diesel.
               | Solar ended up being the cheaper and more reliable
               | option. Labor costs for installation are also lower. In
               | remote areas you may not even have a grid option. Simple
               | general assumptions don't hold across vastly different
               | geopolitical circumstances.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Right, so there's still no need for subsidies.
        
               | bojan wrote:
               | > Solar hardware is so affordable now that it's booming
               | even in poorer countries.
               | 
               | Even in Gaza Strip you'll see sometimes solar panels next
               | to the refugee camps, and broken ones on top of the
               | ruins.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | Great job of indirectly implying that there must be a
               | tradeoff. Funny thing though: those poor countries?
               | They're not building nuclear, or oil fired, or coal
               | fired, or natural gas plants. They're installing solar.
               | Not necessarily because they care about what percentage
               | of their energy usage is renewable, but _because there is
               | no tradeoff_.
               | 
               | Further, environmental protection is not a luxury good,
               | it's a long term investment. Ask me more in another 30-50
               | years when the larger impacts of climate change are
               | happening. Or ask someone else about how much we've spent
               | on superfund cleanup sites.
        
               | SamPatt wrote:
               | Everything has a tradeoff. That's a foundational truth of
               | economics.
               | 
               | Environmental protection is a luxury good in economic
               | terms. The Environmental Kuznets Curve is compelling to
               | me. It's extremely difficult to assess the ROI on long
               | term investments, particularly when your country has
               | unstable rule of law or conflict.
               | 
               | I'm pro-solar, it's amazing technology that empowers
               | individuals and communities. I just don't agree that
               | everything I love I must force other people to pay for.
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | How do you compensate your neighbors for the loss of
               | garden view caused by your house?
        
               | embedding-shape wrote:
               | Is that something you usually have to pay your neighbors
               | where you live? If you put up some ugly thing in your
               | garden you have to pay your neighbors?
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | Sam said he doesn't force other people to pay for things
               | he loves, so I'm wondering how he doesn't force his
               | neighbors to pay for his house with their view.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | Environmental protection may be a long-term investment,
               | but reducing CO2 emission is probably not. The results
               | are too diffuse and you're at the mercy of other
               | countries' energy policy. If you're a small country, you
               | can invest in CO2 reduction all you want, but what
               | actually happens will be up to the US, China, and India.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Canada isn't poor.
        
               | SamPatt wrote:
               | Agreed. But there are poor people in Canada, and forcing
               | them to pay more money (and slightly lowering their own
               | quality of life) so that wealthier Canadians can install
               | solar panels is, at least, a debatable policy.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Does Canada not have progressive taxation? How do poor
               | people pay more than rich people?
               | 
               | To be clear, I don't think rooftop solar subsidies are
               | the best use of government money either. Governments
               | should subsidize utility-scale solar, EVs, efficient
               | buildings, and mass transit. They should focus on cheaper
               | and more efficient permitting, and better grids.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | Canada should invest in Nuclear. Solar is far less
               | efficient in Canada than somewhere like California -
               | whether rooftop or utility-scale. The short winter days,
               | low angle of incidence, and snow means that panels are
               | basically non-operative for 3-4 months a year. This is a
               | huge problem if you also want people to switch to
               | efficient electric-powered heating in the form of heat
               | pumps.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | Canada already has lots of nuclear: https://ember-
               | energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent...
               | 
               | The efficiency of solar _does not matter_ in 2026. Panels
               | are so cheap that just you don 't have to think about it
               | if you have abundant land. If solar is 4x less productive
               | in the winter you just build 4x as many panels. Panels
               | have to be angled more vertical the further north you go
               | so the snow will just slide off. They are not "non-
               | operative 3-4 months a year" - this is just Big Oil FUD.
        
               | SamPatt wrote:
               | Everything has tradeoffs - those panels themselves take
               | energy and rare earth minerals to create, and getting
               | both of those requires pollution, primarily in China
               | where they have lower standards than western nations.
               | 
               | So filling Canada with panels because they're cheap isn't
               | likely the best environmental choice, on net. Though I
               | admit I haven't done the math here, it's just an
               | intuition that "just build 4x panels" isn't the solution.
        
               | testing22321 wrote:
               | Great, if the break ground today the first nuke will be
               | online in absolute minimum 10 years (likely 20) and cost
               | absolute minimum of $15 billion (likely closer to $30
               | billion)
               | 
               | Do you want to guess how cheap solar will be in 10-20
               | years, and how much power we could generate in the mean
               | time.
               | 
               | This is not a discussion worth having.
        
               | tonyarkles wrote:
               | > Does Canada not have progressive taxation? How do poor
               | people pay more than rich people?
               | 
               | It's not that they're paying more than rich people. It's
               | that even with progressive taxation, tax(everything the
               | government currently spends money on) < tax(current
               | spending + solar subsidies). That is to say... giving
               | solar subsidies to rich people causes the tax paid by
               | everyone to increase. Those making more money pay a
               | larger fraction of the increase because of progressive
               | taxation but everyone who is paying taxes pays
               | incrementally more when the government spends more money.
        
               | wasabi991011 wrote:
               | We have progressive tax rates in Canada which should
               | offset this to some extent.
               | 
               | Also, you keep ignoring that the environment is a public
               | good. Poor people in Canada will also be
               | disproportionately impacted by bigger temperature
               | extremes (heat waves, extreme cold), worse air quality,
               | etc.)
        
               | nuancebydefault wrote:
               | Rich people are usually early adopters of new technology.
               | That's how technology gets cheaper. It's fortunate and
               | unfortunate at the same time.
        
               | hlk wrote:
               | Turkey is a poorer country and has more wind and solar
               | capacity by percentage than US.
        
               | earlyriser wrote:
               | Poor countries are switching to solar:
               | https://climatedrift.substack.com/p/why-solarpunk-is-
               | already...
        
               | SamPatt wrote:
               | Yes, and it's wonderful to see. As the article itself
               | explains, this isn't due to government led redistribution
               | of wealth anymore:
               | 
               | > The 20th century infrastructure model was:
               | 
               | > Centralized generation
               | 
               | > Government-led
               | 
               | > Megaproject financing
               | 
               | > 30-year timelines
               | 
               | >Monopolistic utilities
               | 
               | > The 21st century infrastructure model is:
               | 
               | > Distributed/modular
               | 
               | > Private sector-led
               | 
               | > PAYG financing
               | 
               | > Deploy in days/weeks
               | 
               | > Competitive markets
        
               | GuinansEyebrows wrote:
               | the _only_ reason environmental protection could
               | conceivably be considered a luxury (and not a necessity)
               | is because certain sectors of the capital class refuse to
               | convert their means of production away from generating
               | waste and pollution. that 's it. time and time again we
               | see direct action by Chevron, BP, Shell, Exxon, ARAMCO et
               | al to stifle change, refuse scientific evidence of the
               | nature of their pollution, and attack anyone who comes
               | anywhere near impacting their bottom line. look at Steven
               | Donzinger if you need proof of this.
               | 
               | this is not a matter of some fictional invisible hand.
               | these are decisions made by real people who do not care
               | about you, society, the health of the environment or the
               | people who inhabit it. stop carrying their water.
        
               | amarant wrote:
               | Environmental protection IS about survival for poor
               | countries. YOU can afford to not care and burn gas
               | because you won't have your life completely and
               | permanently destroyed by global warming. Poor people
               | don't have that luxury.
               | 
               | Rethink your position because it's completely upside down
        
               | two_handfuls wrote:
               | > Environmental protection is a luxury good. This has
               | been proven time and time again.
               | 
               | I see this lie repeated in many places. Environmental
               | protection is much, much cheaper than the alternative.
        
             | JuniperMesos wrote:
             | Maybe I'd prefer to spend the same public money on building
             | nuclear power plants, or gigantic solar panel arrays in the
             | desert, rather than subsidizing individual roof-owners
             | being able to save money on their electricity bill and not
             | mine.
        
             | epolanski wrote:
             | Also, more people having solar have the indirect effect to
             | bringing energy prices down for everyone.
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | >Don't you want people to use energy sources that are
             | better for our entire world, even if it costs you like $10
             | more in taxes per year?
             | 
             | If everyone gets the benefit it's either A) exactly the
             | same cost but with additional government program or B) some
             | form of wealth distribution and not necessarily in a
             | direction you favor
             | 
             | Also large solar installations are significantly more cost
             | efficient.
             | 
             | Mind you I am IN FAVOR of subsidized residential solar, but
             | let's not pretend government money is free.
        
             | phil21 wrote:
             | > What kind of selfish point of view is this? Don't you
             | want people to use energy sources that are better for our
             | entire world, even if it costs you like $10 more in taxes
             | per year?
             | 
             | Only if those who make the same or more than me are paying
             | that same tax. After their subsidies of course.
             | 
             | Rich folks getting even richer off the backs of poor folks
             | is bad. Even if it's dressed up as good for the environment
             | or whatever justification you want to come up with.
             | 
             | As a homeowner, I would not take these subsidies as I find
             | them to be immoral. Doesn't mean I won't be installing
             | solar, but I'm doing it for far different reasons than
             | saving money.
             | 
             | By your logic, shouldn't homeowners stop being selfish and
             | just pay for these things themselves in order to make the
             | world a better place? Why do they need renters, other
             | taxpayers, and other ratepayers to subsidize them?
        
           | henry2023 wrote:
           | > if I was a renter/condo owner I'd be annoyed that everyone
           | is subsidizing your free solar however.
           | 
           | You probably wouldn't. I hear more people complaining about
           | hypothetical government spending than actual government
           | spending.
        
           | kwanbix wrote:
           | Yeah, truly awful. Unlimited electricity that barely
           | contaminates, and at the lowest possible cost for everyone.
           | Just terrible.
        
           | matthewdgreen wrote:
           | If you're a renter/condo then you're probably getting excess
           | solar generation delivered to you from homeowners with nearby
           | solar roofs. So presumably there is some benefit to you in
           | terms of cheap generation.
        
             | bjackman wrote:
             | Also... Fewer houses using fossil-fueled power on Earth. If
             | you live on Earth that's pretty good.
             | 
             | The answer to this isn't "less subsidies" it's "find a way
             | to make everyone benefit from the subsidies.
        
           | pimeys wrote:
           | In Germany you are allowed to install solar to your balcony
           | as a renter.
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | Your last argument could apply to anything really.
           | 
           | Why should I subsidize farmers if they can't compete?
           | 
           | Why do I have subsidize our own manufacturing companies if
           | they can't compete so their workers have a job, at my
           | expense?
           | 
           | Why do I need to subsidize car owners to have yet another
           | lane but can't get a decent train instead?
           | 
           | Here in Poland suddenly all miners pretend to be subsidized
           | by the state, even if they work for private companies.
           | 
           | Why do I need to subsidize them if the companies they work
           | for can't turn a profit, or when they did for decades chose
           | to pay dividends and do buybacks instead of investing? And
           | now I pay the bill?
           | 
           | I mean, at some point you need to cope with the fact that
           | money has to be spent and circulate in some fashion to
           | promote economic activity and projects.
           | 
           | You could argue that subsidizing solar brings energy prices
           | down in any case.
        
         | pear01 wrote:
         | US also tariffs Chinese EV makers out of the US market so they
         | can keep peddling the fiction that EV sucks or China can't
         | build anything we can't.
         | 
         | This has the same corrupt nexus with the anti-renewable mantra.
         | Essentially subsidize oil and gas under the table and punish
         | renewables then tell the electorate that the latter is worse
         | than the former.
         | 
         | Instead of giving Americans free choice American automakers pay
         | American politicians to prop up their uncompetitive prices and
         | subpar offerings. All while they take in huge private profits.
         | American workers could work on foreign automobiles, just as
         | they do with other automakers not from China. It's not about
         | workers, it's not about national security. You don't even have
         | to go into all the environmental concerns that of course
         | disproportionately affect poorer individuals.
         | 
         | It's corporate welfare. And yes, it should be criminal. At the
         | very least, if the American people are going to inflate CEOs
         | salaries they should have seats on the board.
         | 
         | This is actually not a wild idea. You might be surprised to
         | find who one of the largest shareholders of the Volkswagen
         | group is. It's not like that is an obviously mismanaged
         | socialist hellhole company, it's a perfectly competitive and
         | well regarded car company.
         | 
         | Americans need to start demanding more equity or oversight in
         | operations their governments are already paying for. The fact
         | most Americans think this amounts to communism just means more
         | people have to call out the money is already flowing.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | I'm really happy Canada just dropped the Chinese EV tariffs.
        
         | apexalpha wrote:
         | >Canada here. 7.6kw on our roof for $0 out of pocket thanks to
         | $5k grant and $8k interest free loan.
         | 
         | EUR13.000 for this still seems expensive.
         | 
         | Are there tariffs on Chinese PV in Canada?
        
           | canucktrash669 wrote:
           | 13k CAD is EUR8.000
        
           | matthewdgreen wrote:
           | Most rooftop install costs are labor. The PV is now a minimal
           | slice of it. Which is why mandating solar on new construction
           | is such an important policy: don't make two sets of laborers
           | clamber around the same roof.
        
         | jeorb wrote:
         | The quotes for solar on my home in the US ranged between
         | $40,000 (local company) and $120,000 (Tesla). How did you get
         | solar installed for only $13,000?
        
           | abhinavk wrote:
           | They are in Canada.
        
           | pbasista wrote:
           | Those numbers are meaningless unless you specify what you get
           | in return.
           | 
           | It is like saying that you pay $30,000 for a car. But the
           | most important question is: For which car?
           | 
           | Also, if the installation services are so expensive, you can
           | always install everything yourself.
           | 
           | Study how to do it, get the tools and materials, and then do
           | it. It would be time-consuming, challenging and perhaps it
           | would carry extra risks. Absolutely.
           | 
           | But it is not rocket science. It can be done. As long as
           | there is a motivation to do it, i.e. a good value you will
           | get out of it in return, it should be a valid approach to
           | consider, in my opinion.
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | Almost identical array in the states (7.8kw) -- $25K out of
         | pocket, down to about $12K after state and federal tax
         | incentives.
         | 
         | Still made sense financially, pays for itself after ~8 years
         | and the panels are warrantied for 30... but we're seriously
         | lagging.
         | 
         | There's a similar phenomenon with heat pump systems.
         | Installation costs are absolutely absurd.
        
         | choeger wrote:
         | > Dad in Victoria Australia just got 10.6kw fully installed and
         | operational for $4000 AUD. ($2,700 USD)
         | 
         | How the heck are the panels even installed and connected for
         | that price? That's about 25 panels, IIRC. What about the
         | installation material and the ac/dc converter?
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | All covered in that price.
           | 
           | Government incentives. Spend tax dollars putting solar on
           | literally every roof in the country instead of more coal or
           | nuke plants.
        
         | blell wrote:
         | OTOH, oil and gas prices in Europe are criminal, so there's
         | that.
        
           | bojan wrote:
           | Europe has to import both, and the sellers tend to abuse
           | Europe's dependency on it. Europe has what is becoming a
           | survival interest to replace oil and gas as soon as possible.
        
         | buckle8017 wrote:
         | > Canada here. 7.6kw on our roof for $0 out of pocket thanks to
         | $5k grant and $8k interest free loan.
         | 
         | So solar only makes sense when it's nearly completely
         | subsidized?
         | 
         | That's not the statement you think it is.
        
         | WheatMillington wrote:
         | It's criminal to not hand huge subsidies to people like you who
         | are already likely well-off, so you can generate passive income
         | for the rest of your life?
        
           | rfrey wrote:
           | Oil and gas subsidies in Canada dwarf whatever pittance is
           | tossed out to renewable energy. People getting an interest
           | free loan for rooftop solar may be well off (they own
           | houses), but I guarantee the CEO of TC Energy is doing even
           | better.
        
           | testing22321 wrote:
           | A few things
           | 
           | If enough people adopt solar, it gets cheaper, and everyone
           | get cheaper power, or even free like Australia.
           | 
           | Tax dollars could be spent on new coal or nuke plants, or to
           | incentivize solar installs. Which one is the right future? Do
           | new coal and nuke plants result in free power like Australia?
        
         | prometheus76 wrote:
         | Another impact on solar adoption in the United States is that
         | many home insurance companies are refusing to pay on claims
         | against roof damage from poor installs. And there are a lot of
         | poor installs, which has led to this problem. So now the
         | homeowners are taking all of the risk on a solar install that
         | already has an 8-10 year ROI.
        
         | vjvjvjvjghv wrote:
         | "Solar prices in the US are criminal, protecting oil and gas
         | who bought all the politicians."
         | 
         | I think a big part of why the US GDP is so high is that a lot
         | of things are just f...ing expensive. Education, health care,
         | solar, restaurants and so on. You have to actively resist the
         | "usual" lifestyle or you end up in a sea of debt.
        
         | andsoitis wrote:
         | > Solar prices in the US are criminal, protecting oil and gas
         | who bought all the politicians.
         | 
         | Are you saying that because you assert cost is driven up
         | "artificially" by taxes or other structural headwinds? Or are
         | you saying that fossils enjoy an advantage due to lopsided
         | subsidies? Or something else?
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Figure out what you can do without a permit or inspections in
         | your jurisdiction.
         | 
         | For example, in my jurisdiction it's: < 5 square meters of
         | panels on your roof, <60V DC, AC on homeowner side of panel (as
         | long as electrical work done by homeowner).
         | 
         | That's not a lot, but my primary purpose is as a generator
         | replacement -- keep my fridge powered during a summer power
         | outage or my furnace fan powered during a winter one. The other
         | 364 days of the year it just slowly pays for itself.
         | 
         | Panels, battery, wiring and paying a roofer to install the
         | flashings for the mounts all cost under $3000. A single one of
         | the required inspections would have cost about that much.
        
       | flexie wrote:
       | But Trump explained to us yesterday, how wind and solar is for
       | losers. Surely, we should be looking in to how we can transition
       | back to fossils.
        
         | nxm wrote:
         | At the end of the day, the retail cost of electricity in many
         | EU member countries can be two to three times the cost of
         | electricity in the US. Ultimately that's what matters to
         | consumers and businesses.
         | 
         | Also, Trump called out the idiotic decisions by greenies such
         | as shutting down nuclear power plants and make long your
         | industries less competitive as a result.
        
           | coredev_ wrote:
           | If this is true, it has nothing to do with solar or wind but
           | rather strange decisions in the past in some countries that
           | they (and their neighbors) pay for now (looking at you
           | Germany).
        
             | p0pularopinion wrote:
             | Nuclear does not cause prices to be lower. Putting that
             | aside, political discourse here in Germany was
             | "interesting" to say the least.
             | 
             | The shift to renewables started off pretty well in the
             | early 2010s before it came to a grinding halt thanks to
             | some wierd debates around the topic. For the past few
             | years, buildout of solar has been remarkably fast,
             | especially considering the slow pace of other projects. In
             | 2025, 16.4 GW of solar power went live.
             | 
             | The biggest issue that drives prices here is the grid. New
             | high voltages transmission lines have faced intense local
             | oppsition, so transmision between North and South is
             | limited, which is problematic given the focus of the north
             | on (offshore) wind and the south on solar PV. Since Germany
             | is a single electricity price zone, the low to negative
             | electricity prices from wind turbines do not reflect the
             | reality of grid capabilities, resulting in significant
             | redispatch costs.
             | 
             | The solution would be obvious. Split Germany into n
             | electicity price zones (with n>1). However, there is a lot
             | of political opposition, specifically from the conservative
             | CDU/CSU against this.
             | 
             | So yeah, Germany is struggling with relatively expensive
             | electrcity prices, complaining about it, but refusing to
             | implement a borderline free solution for it.
        
               | MadDemon wrote:
               | The high voltage DC transmission lines from north to
               | south are being built right now and for example SuedLink
               | is expected to be operational in 2028. Their transmission
               | capacity will be more than enough. Why would you split
               | Germany into electricity zones now, if in a few years the
               | transmission problem will largely be fixed?
        
               | coredev_ wrote:
               | Nuclear that was built a long time ago would probably
               | have lowered the prices in DE right now, if they weren't
               | shut down. I understand that building new ones right now
               | makes little sense.
        
               | ZeroGravitas wrote:
               | Only if it the nuclear didn't need refurbished to keep
               | running.
               | 
               | France and Canada are currently estimating costs to
               | refurb old nuclear that are higher then new build
               | renewables.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | Refurb costs are for the entire fleet which is 50+GW and
               | are in fact dirt cheap. Refurbs are in 1-3bn/unit range.
               | CF of say solar in this region is roughly 10-12%. To have
               | same average output as a single 1GW npp you would need
               | about 10GW solar and much more if you want to achieve
               | firm generation. French refurbs will happen anyway. In
               | fact, carenage is already undergoing.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | Nuclear was cheapest firm power in the german merit
               | order. So yes, nuclear does have an impact, especially if
               | it outplaces higher cost units
               | 
               | There is a lot of opposition because zone split would
               | mean erasing southern industry and I may be wrong, but
               | southern regions are pumping most of the money into state
               | budget. Cutting those means cutting own legs.
        
           | KaiserPro wrote:
           | > in many EU member countries can be two to three times the
           | cost of electricity in the US.
           | 
           | Yup, I wonder why that might be, perhaps its due to our main
           | supplier of gas and oil invading a country. Not sure though,
           | if only the price graphs reflected that. oh wait.
           | 
           | > shutting down nuclear power plants
           | 
           | Germany fucked up there. but france and Finland haven't done
           | that.
           | 
           | Spain has cheap electricity _because_ of solar power its
           | wholesale price is currently lower than the US, in winter.
        
         | EdiX wrote:
         | Declining industrially and demographically, no innovation,
         | soaring energy prices, and our share of the world economy has
         | shrunk for ten years straight and is projected to continue
         | shrinking in the future. By all metrics us europeans are
         | losers.
        
       | jhrmnn wrote:
       | Now, let's aim at total energy consumption, not just electricity
       | generation.
        
         | standardUser wrote:
         | ~30% of total energy consumption in Europe is from ICE
         | vehicles. So selling more EVs and winding down ICE sales can
         | resolve 1/3rd of the issue.
        
       | spants wrote:
       | The UK has some of the highest energy costs in the world due to
       | the stupid Net Zero taxes. Our economy and manufacturing is
       | suffering.
        
         | mekdoonggi wrote:
         | Have you considered that what you're paying for isn't just
         | energy now, but energy security in the future?
        
           | doublerabbit wrote:
           | I don't see any energy security for the future for the UK
           | unfortunately. We sold ourselves short during the GW/Blair
           | Neo-labour era. Scotland maybe, they have wind-farms but the
           | UK likes to tax that. We've just started the era of paying
           | for the cost of Brexit. It's hitting hard.
           | 
           | My weekly supermarket shop for the basic essentials (cheese,
           | eggs, flour, vegetables) now come to around $60/80 a trip.
           | 
           | Parmesan Cheese is around ~PS22-PS45 ($30-$60) per kg
           | compared to the US $7-$24+ per kg.
        
             | mekdoonggi wrote:
             | Why not? You've got abundant wind and solar. Once
             | installed, even if for some reason you can't get new
             | turbines or panels, you'll still have a decent amount of
             | capacity.
        
               | doublerabbit wrote:
               | Solar is hit & miss. The only capacity we really have is
               | wind and those are only efficient to those near the sea
               | or in the highlands. England, Scotland, Wales are
               | governed by rain 80% of the year and with the sun we get,
               | household solar rarely breaks even.
               | 
               | Just because we've got, if the government isn't
               | supporting it's pretty much wasted. The renewable farms
               | we do have are mostly funded by private investments
               | firms. Scotland and Wales wants more renewable but the UK
               | government says no.
               | 
               | > End 2024 installed electricity generating capacity was
               | 105 GWe: 35.0 GWe natural gas; 32.8 GWe wind; 18.3 GWe
               | solar; 7.4 GWe biofuels & waste; 5.9 GWe nuclear; 4.8 GWe
               | hydro (including 2.9 GWe pumped storage) and 1.3 GWe oil.
               | 
               | https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-
               | profil...
        
               | mekdoonggi wrote:
               | A quick search says the UK produced 18,314 GWh of solar
               | last year. And this was mostly funded by private
               | investment? It seems like for some infrastructure
               | investment, the government is getting long-term renewable
               | power. If the solar isn't making money, why is it growing
               | 30% annually?
               | 
               | What is stupid about nuclear? It's a huge amount of
               | clean, secure energy.
               | 
               | Would your preference be dependence on Russian/US oil
               | natural gas? Would you feel the same if Russia invaded
               | Finland/Baltics and US took over Greenland?
        
               | doublerabbit wrote:
               | > What is stupid about nuclear? It's a huge amount of
               | clean, secure energy.
               | 
               | It's not the stupidly of the reactor producing. I don't
               | agree with it personally, but hey whatever, it's a thing.
               | The stupidly of it is that we are small island.
               | 
               | Claim what you wish about how safe they are but like
               | anything: errors and malfunctions. Cyber sabotage and all
               | that.
               | 
               | If an reactor were to implode we're eff'd. We don't have
               | landmass to facilitate the output waste in the UK and the
               | waste we do currently produce has to be shipped
               | elsewhere; sold for dark money.
               | 
               | > Would your preference be dependence on Russian/US oil
               | natural gas? Would you feel the same if Russia invaded
               | Finland/Baltics and US took over Greenland?
               | 
               | My preference would be my hand with a gun pointed at my
               | temple and myself pulling the trigger. To dark?
        
               | M2Ys4U wrote:
               | >We don't have landmass to facilitate the output waste in
               | the UK
               | 
               | Yes, we do. It really doesn't make that much space to
               | store the waste. The biggest problem is people being
               | _irrationally_ scared of it.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | even accounting for fukushima/chernoble nuclear is
               | between solar and wind in terms of human deaths. And new
               | units are safer than both. EPR went 'just add one more
               | thing' to be more expensive, AP1000 went passive safety
               | way but westinghose imploded and they needed to ask Korea
               | for help
        
               | mekdoonggi wrote:
               | Forgive me, but I don't think you're looking at UK energy
               | policy with a pragmatic and realistic lens. The UK could
               | always make a reactor safer and more secure. If you're
               | dependent on gas, Russia or the US could just shut off
               | the tap.
        
               | KaiserPro wrote:
               | > household solar rarely breaks even.
               | 
               | mate, I dunno what your smoking, but it deffo does. I'm
               | about 50% "paid off" and I had an expensive setup.
               | Installed now the equivalent costs about 50% of what it
               | did.
               | 
               | > Scotland and Wales wants more renewable but the UK
               | government says no.
               | 
               | National grid say "holy shit I need to build more cables"
               | then local people say "ewwww pylons" and shit gets more
               | expensive. There is a bottleneck between england and
               | scotland, which is partially being solved by
               | https://www.nationalgrid.com/the-great-grid-upgrade
               | 
               | The whole boo england, poor scotland/wales thing gets
               | tired super quick. its being solved, is it being solved
               | fast enough? no, but thats because we have a raised a
               | shit generation of empty politicians from across UK and
               | NI. (and the co-dependent pundit class)
               | 
               | > The renewable farms we do have are mostly funded by
               | private investments firms.
               | 
               | Mostly pension funds. but yes, private. However given the
               | high turnover of (useless) polticians, and a civil
               | service that has had all is expertise hollowed out and
               | replaced by consultancy firms, I don't think public
               | funding, without structural reform is a good idea (look
               | at railways for example)
        
             | dalyons wrote:
             | Why not? Few more of these (1) and you should be golden.
             | One years auction will be 12% of all uk demand.
             | 
             | 1 https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-uks-record-auction-
             | for-o... )
        
               | doublerabbit wrote:
               | If either one of the two alternative government parties
               | of the UK get in they will scrap all. Reform UK sets out
               | plans to tax renewable energy, conservatives are all for
               | the oil.
               | 
               | 2030 is four years away & the next election is in 2029.
               | The Labour party is unlikely to get in again, and if they
               | do it'll be a miracle. Far-Right or Fascist Right.
               | 
               | Reform UK won't get enough seats to sit in parliament
               | this election but if in the future, it's a dystopian
               | vision I don't want to think about. Trump-XL, tax the EU,
               | climate change doesn't exist, kick out asylum seekers,
               | higher taxation to further screw Scotland and Wales.
               | Heavily back pocketed by the US oil and tobacco industry,
               | Nigel is foul MAGA of the UK.
               | 
               | Conservatives, sponsored by oil and pharmaceutical.
               | Exxon, Esso, BP et cetera. They got their wish with
               | Brexit, they made a bucket load of cash from that and
               | they're the ones who scrapped the renewable industry in
               | the first place. One of their aims is to scrap the NHS
               | and make it privatised.
        
             | FrostViper8 wrote:
             | > A supermarket shop for the basic essentials (cheese,
             | eggs, flour, vegetables) now come to around $60/80 a trip.
             | 
             | No it doesn't. Maybe if you are shopping at Waitrose. It is
             | more expensive. But it isn't PS45 for basics. I did an
             | entire shop which will last me the week for PS30 (in Aldi).
        
               | doublerabbit wrote:
               | I shop at Sainsburys where I can. The main supermarkets
               | for me are Morrison and kind of forced to use M&S.
               | 
               | Everyone has their super market preference. ASDA would be
               | cheaper still. You can't disagree that prices have sky
               | rocketed, shrunk in quantity and now lower quality.
        
             | klelatti wrote:
             | > Pamantasan Cheese
             | 
             | What cheese? A misspelling?
        
             | KaiserPro wrote:
             | > compared to the US $7-$24+ per kg.
             | 
             | thats per pound (lb).
             | 
             | Given that you can't make parmesan in the UK _AND_ its
             | historically expensive (see samual peypes) it seems an odd
             | choice to pin your argument on.
             | 
             | > We sold ourselves short during the GW/Blair Neo-labour
             | era.
             | 
             | I mean we really didn't it was a period of great
             | productivity and a massive boost in living standards almost
             | universally.
        
         | atwrk wrote:
         | Looking at the data it seems that uk industrial electricity is
         | the most expensive _before_ taxes, is that not correct?
        
         | ricardo81 wrote:
         | The social and environmental cost part is being removed in
         | April and should save around 15-20% of the bill. I guess that
         | is what you mean by net zero taxes?
        
         | mrks_hy wrote:
         | > due to the stupid Net Zero taxes.
         | 
         | No. Citation neede. The issue is the moronic way energy
         | auctions are done, first by setting the price to the highest
         | source that can satisfy (always gas) but ignoring (!)
         | geography. Then, phase 2, dropping the impossible providers
         | (i.e. Scottish hydro in the North for South England), and doing
         | another (much more expensive pass). The Octopus CEO had a
         | succinct explainer recently, can't find the video...
         | 
         | Found it: https://youtu.be/5WgS-Dsm31E?t=91 starts at 1:31
        
           | Moldoteck wrote:
           | this is not moronic. This is done everywhere in the world. In
           | fact, merit order does justify more ren deployment even if
           | economics aren't that great, because operators will be paid
           | according to merit order, needing less cfd's. You can also
           | check out how much of the gas electricity price is just
           | carbon tax. And how transmission spending evolved. And how
           | CFD's for different tech evolved in each AR round
        
         | nindalf wrote:
         | This is a glib statement that disregards a massive amount of
         | complexity.
         | 
         | Energy is not expensive because of Net Zero taxes. Here's a
         | breakdown of the average UK electricity bill over time [1]. The
         | Renewables Obligation, that subsidised wind and solar at a time
         | when they were infeasible without subsidies, was a scheme that
         | ran between 2002 and 2017. It was stopped once renewables
         | became cheaper than the alternatives. We will continue to pay
         | for the renewable plants set up back in the day, but this will
         | gradually taper off. In this electricity bill estimate for 2030
         | [2], you'll find that the Renewables Obligation is much lower
         | (PS17 rather than PS102) for two reasons: plants losing
         | subsidies as they age out and a chunk of the subsidy being
         | borne by the treasury from general taxation.
         | 
         | So why aren't electricity bills coming down? Because we're
         | recognising the reality that we will need to be powered by a
         | mix of nuclear, wind and solar. Check out this real time
         | dashboard of electricity generation in the UK [3], which shows
         | you how Wind has zoomed in the last 14 years. From 2GW to 14GW,
         | wind is now the single largest source of energy generated in
         | the UK.
         | 
         | Wind is only going to grow, because it is cheap compared to the
         | alternatives. In the Jan 2026 auction for wind power, an 8.4GW
         | contract was awarded for a price 40% lower than the cost of a
         | gas power plant. And unlike gas you aren't at the vagaries of
         | global gas prices, like we were in 2022.
         | 
         | And now you're thinking, if wind is so cheap and we're
         | continuing to build more, why is the estimate for the 2030
         | electricity bill higher than 2025? The 2030 page explains this
         | - the wind is being built in the North Sea, far from where it
         | is needed - in the South of England. This means investing in
         | the transmission network, which will cost PS70B over the next 5
         | years. That cost will be passed onto consumers.
         | 
         | So no, bills aren't high because of renewables. The decision to
         | double down on wind, solar, batteries and nuclear by the
         | previous and current government are sound. We will be more
         | energy independent than we were in 2022 and possibly paying a
         | bit less in overall bills. The reduction in carbon emissions is
         | a nice bonus.
         | 
         | [1] - https://www.electricitybills.uk
         | 
         | [2] - https://www.electricitybills.uk/2030
         | 
         | [3] - https://grid.iamkate.com
        
           | Moldoteck wrote:
           | bills are higher because of co2 tax, cfd's paid through AR
           | rounds, and transmission expansion
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | OTOH, 60%-80% of electricity production is already
         | renewable/low-carbon.
        
       | kokey wrote:
       | Every time, over the years, that there has been some kind of
       | headline saying renewables have overtaken fossil fuels, when you
       | look at it a bit more closely there is always a big 'but'. For
       | example, it was compared to coal (not taking into account
       | electricity from gas), or it was for one day, or it was a
       | percentage of new installations, or it excludes winter, includes
       | nuclear etc.
       | 
       | This time, however, it looks like it's actually true and that's
       | just for wind and solar. This is incredible, and done through
       | slowly compounding gains that didn't cause massive economic
       | hardships along the way.
        
         | fred_is_fred wrote:
         | How much did Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine and nat gas
         | price and supply changes accelerate things?
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | _Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs_ -
           | https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-
           | an... (updated daily)
        
           | ZeroGravitas wrote:
           | Sadly we got a warning in 2014 with Crimea being seized and
           | fossil apologists like Bjorn Lomborg argued against rolling
           | out wind and solar faster in response.
           | 
           | Because he's so "reasonable" and "pragmatic", he didn't say
           | we shouldn't phase out Russian gas, he just said solar and
           | wind don't work and so we should invent some totally new type
           | of energy for this purpose.
           | 
           | It's only with a few years hindsight that he's obviously a
           | shill. You had to be paying close attention at the time to
           | notice.
           | 
           | And sadly that kind of engineered delay is widespread.
        
         | pranavj wrote:
         | This is an important observation. For years these headlines
         | came with asterisks - one sunny/windy day, excludes gas, new
         | capacity only, etc. This being actual annual generation for
         | wind+solar combined vs all fossil fuels is genuinely
         | significant. The compounding nature of it is key too - solar
         | capacity is now large enough that even modest percentage growth
         | adds enormous absolute capacity each year.
        
         | jl6 wrote:
         | The "but" this time is that we are talking about electricity
         | demand, not total energy demand. Electrification of heating is
         | the next big milestone.
         | 
         | It's still a great trend.
        
         | RationPhantoms wrote:
         | In my opinion, the "but" is still the "hellbrise"
         | considerations brought up in the Decouple podcast. Renewable
         | energy is fantastic but, at grid scale, has to be coupled with
         | sufficient storage: https://www.decouple.media/p/hellbrise
        
           | adrianN wrote:
           | You can get pretty far with negligible storage. There is a
           | cost tradeoff between storage, peaker plants (those could
           | burn hydrogen, not just natgas) and grid size. 70% renewable
           | with no storage is rather easy.
        
             | RationPhantoms wrote:
             | Not sure if you read the podcast but the whole point is
             | that over-reliance on renewables without a sufficient means
             | to handle oversupply can cause grid instability specific to
             | the Spain/Portugal grid outage.
        
               | Rygian wrote:
               | The reports on the Iberian outage point out that, if
               | solar/wind had been allowed to help, the outage could
               | have been prevented.
               | 
               | The outage was never about renewables, it was caused by
               | bad dispatch of reactive power.
        
         | owenversteeg wrote:
         | The only asterisk this time is that this is electricity, not
         | energy. Still impressive, but electricity is only 22% of total
         | energy use, so they are at about 12% of the total for the EU
         | and 7.8% for Europe.
         | 
         | For that, you want this graph:
         | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-sou...
         | 
         | Fun to play around with, you can also change the selection to
         | view the world, US, China, individual EU countries etc.
         | 
         | You can see that this the gain in renewables in the EU has been
         | mainly at the expense of coal (down >50% as a share of total
         | energy use in 10 years), gas (down 4%), and nuclear (down 20%.)
         | Oil use as a share of the total is up by 5%.
        
           | eigenspace wrote:
           | It can be rather misleading to to talk about renewable energy
           | generation versus total energy usage.
           | 
           | Most uses of fossil fuels are very inefficient. For instance,
           | when you step on the accelerator in your car, only around 30%
           | of the energy in the fuel you use actually is being used to
           | propel you forward. The majority of the energy is wasted as
           | heat. In a power plant that's more like 70% being captured
           | and going towards the goal (electricity generation).
           | 
           | Another large quantity of energy-usage is heating, and
           | electrical heat-pumps can be around 3-5x more energy
           | efficient at heating an enclosed space than combustion or
           | resistive heating.
           | 
           | So while things like heating an transportation use a very
           | large amount of energy, conquering them with renewables
           | actually won't require that Europe installs 10x or whatever
           | more wind and solar, since electrification also brings
           | significant new efficiencies.
           | 
           | ______
           | 
           | If you want to compare renewables against the amount of
           | fossil fuels being burnt, then it'd be a lot more
           | representative if you calculate the amount of wind energy
           | impacting a wind turbine blade, or the amount of energy in
           | solar radiation incident on a solar panel. That's an easy way
           | to inflate the renewable numbers by ~5x or whatever
        
             | adrianN wrote:
             | Most power plants are less than 50% efficient.
        
               | eigenspace wrote:
               | Yeah, 70% is more or less a best-case scenario (unless
               | you count systems for recovering and distributing waste
               | heat, then it goes higher)
        
             | owenversteeg wrote:
             | I mostly agree. Certainly transportation is an obvious one.
             | But of course there are still some losses; when you include
             | all the losses in the system and cold weather you can
             | easily get ~80% for EVs vs. ~30% for ICE cars. Heat pumps
             | can be very efficient, but 5x more efficient than
             | combustion/resistive heating (which is near 100%...) is not
             | common in practice. 3x, sure, plenty of installations that
             | get that or better in mild climates.
             | 
             | That said, those are two pretty large items. If we reached
             | 90% electrification on both it would be a pretty big win:
             | Road transport represents ~26% of global energy use and all
             | heating/cooling (industry, building, agriculture)
             | represents ~50%.
        
               | youngtaff wrote:
               | > Road transport represents ~26% of global energy use
               | 
               | Does that 26% include the energy that's involved to ship
               | the fuel in tankers?
               | 
               | Something like 50% of marine fuel usage is shipping
               | fossil fuels around the world
        
             | grumbelbart wrote:
             | Exactly. It is in general (much) more efficient to burn
             | natural gas in a power plant and use the electricity for
             | heatpumps compared to simply burning gas at home for
             | heating.
        
               | m4rtink wrote:
               | Yeah, in combined cycle plants you burn the natural gas
               | first in a gas turbine first, use the waste heat from
               | that to boil water and run steam turbine. Then condense
               | the steam using your district heating circuit.
               | 
               | You can say this is 100% efficient as you make some
               | electricity and the rest does house heating.
        
         | youngtaff wrote:
         | If you take a look at the All Time view on
         | https://grid.iamkate.com you'll see wind overtook gas a few
         | years ago in the UK
        
       | altern8 wrote:
       | Well, OK--but at what cost?
       | 
       | Electricity/heating and gasoline in the EU is many times more
       | expensive than in the U.S., and as a result EVERYTHING is more
       | expensive.
       | 
       | Mix that with lower buying power and taxes and we spend 2-3 times
       | for stuff.
       | 
       | I would think that most people would happily choose lower prices
       | over clean energy and paper straws.
       | 
       | Our companies are also less and less competitive because of these
       | initiatives, and companies from China take over in part thanks to
       | the complete lack if environmental and labor laws over there.
       | 
       | Seems to me like this is happening more and more, and it's so
       | widespread and obvious that it almost makes you think that
       | politicians are being bought by Chinese companies/government.
        
         | torlok wrote:
         | Renewables lead to energy independence and a more distributed
         | energy grid. It's fundamental to security, and can't be so
         | easily measured in terms of money. The EU is increasing its
         | independence from China via initiatives like the Net-Zero
         | Industry Act. And this talk of "politicians being bought by
         | Chinese companies" is laughable in the face of what oil
         | companies are doing, to the benefit of exporters like USA,
         | Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other regimes, and definitively not
         | the EU.
        
           | altern8 wrote:
           | I'm not sure, I'm in Poland and all we had was coal. Now it
           | will take a few decades to have our own source of power
           | again. Maybe 20-30 years..?
           | 
           | What are oil companies doing to drive European companies out
           | of business (not saying they aren't, I just don't know)?
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | Poland still has majority coal power production! It's one
             | of last places you can possibly blame renewables for
             | pricing.
        
               | altern8 wrote:
               | Well, green initiatives made us stop using coal.
               | 
               | Also, we've started exporting because of carbon credits--
               | which caused prices to skyrocket.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | prices in poland are dictated by coal. Coal got insanely
               | expensive due to co2 taxes
        
               | altern8 wrote:
               | Correct. Exactly my point.
        
             | torlok wrote:
             | I'm from Poland too and the only thing we have is land, the
             | sun, and wind. Coal poisons the air we breathe, and hurts
             | the climate our children will live in. It's not about
             | money, it's about security. The worst thing for polish
             | security is being dependent on foreign oil and gas, and to
             | be reliant on a few power plants that are an easy target
             | for russian drones, and rely on water from rivers that are
             | running dry more and more often. The transition away from
             | coal should've come much, much sooner. When you hear a push
             | back against renewables, and people praising oil and gas,
             | who's benefiting from this? Poland, or oil suppliers like
             | Russia?
        
               | altern8 wrote:
               | I like nuclear.
               | 
               | But I think it's a huge investment that would take
               | decades.
        
               | torlok wrote:
               | I'm fine with supplementing with nuclear, but it's still
               | a single point of failure, and needs water. France and
               | Switzerland had to shut down nuclear plants last year
               | because the rivers got too hot. This issue is not going
               | away.
        
         | p0pularopinion wrote:
         | > Electricity/heating and gasoline in the EU is many times more
         | expensive than in the U.S.
         | 
         | Maybe because Europe as a whole has little to no signifcant oil
         | reserves ready for extraction? Very much unlike the US.
         | 
         | > I would think that most people would happily choose lower
         | prices over clean energy and paper straws.
         | 
         | The US does have plenty of cheap energy and yet its industrial
         | output is dwarfed by Chinas, which is increasingly relying on
         | domestically products green tech. Also, people seem to be not
         | very concerned with energy prices. If they were, they would not
         | act as irrational when it comes to topics like heatpumps or
         | electric vehicles.
         | 
         | > that it almost makes you think that politicians are being
         | bought by Chinese companies/government.
         | 
         | Looking at the energy policy of some countries (Germany
         | specifically), it seems vastly more likely that politicans are
         | bought by oil companies.
        
           | altern8 wrote:
           | True, there is no oil and we just relied on cheap gas from
           | Russia--which I guess it didn't turn out to be a good
           | strategy after all.
           | 
           | That's interesting about oil companies. Is that who's lobbing
           | to pass laws that just seem (to me) to be written on purpose
           | to make our companies less competitive? How does that work,
           | how do oil companies profit from that?
        
             | direwolf20 wrote:
             | If you can sell more oil and at a higher price, you get
             | more money.
        
               | altern8 wrote:
               | OK, but how, they lobby to pass laws against coal and
               | nuclear, so that you burn more oil..?
        
               | direwolf20 wrote:
               | Yes, and against bike lanes so more people have to drive,
               | and against subsidies for public transport, and against
               | public transport entirely, and so on.
        
               | altern8 wrote:
               | I see.
               | 
               | That makes sense, every interesting thanks.
        
           | Moldoteck wrote:
           | big part is co2 tax. EU now has neptune deep and could
           | explore north sea too. In Germany current transition pathway
           | of ren+gas and no nuclear was defined when Energiewende got
           | introduced with red greens under Schroeder, a gazprom lover
           | and later extended by red blacks
        
             | altern8 wrote:
             | Yes, 100%.
             | 
             | That's part of what I meant by "green initiatives".
        
         | pranavj wrote:
         | EU electricity prices are high, but attributing this to
         | renewables is backwards. Wholesale electricity prices drop when
         | wind and solar are producing - that's been documented
         | extensively. The high prices are largely due to: (1) gas
         | setting marginal prices during peak hours, (2) grid
         | infrastructure that hasn't kept pace, and (3) taxes/levies that
         | fund the transition. As battery storage grows and reduces gas
         | dependency for peaks, prices should moderate. The countries
         | with the highest renewable penetration (Spain, Portugal) often
         | have lower prices than those still dependent on gas imports.
        
           | altern8 wrote:
           | I'm not attributing to renewables, but green initiatives.
           | 
           | For instance, the rising prices of carbon permits under the
           | EU emissions trading scheme.
           | 
           | So, my point is that countries that don't ignore the economy
           | just to be green--like the U.S. and specially China--seem to
           | have vastly cheaper electricity and gasoline, which I would
           | guess makes them more competitive/lowers prices.
           | 
           | Over here we have no NG and no oil, and on top of that we tax
           | our companies because of emission limits, while in China they
           | burn coal like there is no tomorrow.
           | 
           | We wanted to outlaw non-electric cars, while the car industry
           | in Europe is huge and we don't have a way to build batteries,
           | etc. etc.
           | 
           | Seems to be a pattern that is hard to understand.
        
             | dgb23 wrote:
             | China is has started to trend their fossil fuel consumption
             | downwards since last year and have a similar per capita
             | consumption as Europe.
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | > Well, OK--but at what cost?
         | 
         | It costs less? The Danish organisation for green energy
         | interest (biased I known) has calculations that shows a 5
         | billion DKK saving per year for the Danish consumers. So about
         | EUR0.02 per kWh.
         | 
         | I also think you're wrong about prices. I think most will pay
         | more, if they get clean energy. Not a lot more, but if it's
         | only a few cents, I think many/most will pay that, perhaps not
         | happily, but still. People, in parts of Europe at least, are
         | perhaps more baffled that the Americans won't pay the slightly
         | higher cost and and protect the environment. As it happens
         | that's not a choice we need to make, wind and solar is now
         | cheaper than fossil fuel.
        
           | altern8 wrote:
           | I'm not sure, prices here in Poland have skyrocketed because
           | of the EU green initiative and we started exporting and
           | prices went up 3-4 times.
           | 
           | I'm good with protecting the environment. Here, though, we're
           | making European companies less competitive. They shut down,
           | and Chinese companies fill the gap, flooding us with products
           | that are worse for the environments because they have no
           | laws, bad for workers because they have no laws, and bad for
           | the environment again because instead of local they're
           | shipped across continents on boats that burn as much fuel as
           | a whole country for a year just to bring cheap plastic stuff
           | that we used to make better ourselves.
        
             | mrweasel wrote:
             | Arguing that European business should be allowed to pollute
             | the environment more, because that's what China does is a
             | little backwards I think. In my mind we should enforce the
             | rules on a per product basis, rather than per country.
             | Where a product is made shouldn't matter, a product should
             | be taxed based on the pollution it has generated, shipping
             | included.
             | 
             | Want to sell to the EU: Workers can only work e.g. 40 hours
             | a week, must have five weeks of vacation per year and here
             | are the tax rates for various types of pollution.
        
               | altern8 wrote:
               | Yes, this would be good but I have a feeling it will
               | never happen.
        
           | Moldoteck wrote:
           | there's a meme with a few cents more in germany, can search
           | on the google "eis kugel energiewende"
           | 
           | DK has one of the highest household prices in EU per eurostat
           | https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-
           | explained/index.php...
           | 
           | Imo CO2 tax should be gone to alleviate this, especially when
           | China and US dont have it. This just causes offshoring.
           | 
           | If you want electrification, you need cheap electricity. If
           | you want more ren, you put more incentives there instead of
           | overtaxing fossils to make own industry uncompetitive
        
             | mrweasel wrote:
             | But the energy from windmills doesn't have a CO2 tax (it
             | did at some point) and it frequently provides most, if not
             | all, of the Danish energy (electricity) consumption.
             | There's ONE coal fired power plant left in the country and
             | it's scheduled to close in 2028. I get that we then have
             | gas and garbage incinerators for heating, but we are
             | getting electrification and lower prices.
             | 
             | I frankly don't care what the US and China is doing,
             | because they're doing the wrong thing. You're arguing that
             | because you neighbour is throwing trash in the street you
             | want to be able to do the same. I'd much rather make
             | environmental demands of the products being sold to be from
             | else where, and have them live by the same rules, allowing
             | everyone to benefit.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | Co2 tax is just an indirect subsidy for renewables. When
               | prices are low those are subsidized through cfds. When
               | high- through merit order artificially pumped by co2 tax.
               | This isn't bad per se but it affects negatively final
               | consumer prices and industry which is bad.
               | 
               | Problem is not about the neighbors throwing trash.
               | Unilateral co2 tax means industry relocates to regions
               | where it's not present. In your analogy it would look
               | like you are sending trash to US to deal with it.
               | 
               | DK is lucky to be able to get firming from nordics, but
               | not everyone can do this. And from what I remember Norway
               | already said one of the interconnectors will not have
               | extended license at EOL
        
       | usrnm wrote:
       | The article uses the words "more power" and "overtaking fossil
       | fuels", but the graph is actually about electricity generation.
       | They are not the same thing, at least, in my head, because not
       | all energy consumed in Europe comes in the form of electricity.
       | If I heat my home with natural gas and drive an ICE car, this is
       | me using fossil fuels in a way that has nothing to do with
       | electricity and it won't be reflected in that graph. This is an
       | important stepping stone, but it is not "solar and wind
       | overtaking fossil fuels in Europe"
        
         | pranavj wrote:
         | Good catch. Electricity is maybe 20-25% of final energy
         | consumption in most EU countries. The real test is whether
         | cheap renewable electricity can pull heating (heat pumps) and
         | transport (EVs) onto the grid fast enough. The encouraging sign
         | is that both are happening - heat pump sales have surged in
         | several EU countries, and EV adoption is well ahead of most
         | forecasts from 5 years ago. But you're right that "overtaking
         | fossil fuels" in total energy is still years away.
        
         | wat10000 wrote:
         | "Power" usually means electricity when used colloquially.
        
       | p0pularopinion wrote:
       | I'm curious as to how this will shift once the shift towards more
       | electrification continues. This is only about electricity
       | generation, not total power consumption.
       | 
       | Nowadays, for very energy intenive things like heating or driving
       | a car, fossil fuels still are more prevalent than electric
       | alternatives. Once demand shifts in favor of the electrified
       | alternatives, electricity demand is continuing to raise (although
       | not as steep as the drop in demand for the fossil fuels will be).
       | Particularly in heating, where peak demand is in times with very
       | little solar generation, it seems like this will be challenging.
       | 
       | While the prices of energy storage have come down significantly
       | and are projected to continue to drop, there is still a noteable
       | lack of cost effective long term storage solutions.
        
         | kieranmaine wrote:
         | Regarding the affect of EV adoption on electricity consumption
         | the site https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ has some
         | interesting data. I'd recommend looking at the following
         | graphs:
         | 
         | * Distance travelled by passenger cars in Norway
         | 
         | * EV electricity consumption and total power generation in
         | Norway
         | 
         | EVs now make up approximately 1/3 of miles travelled, but the
         | increase in total electrcity consumption is fairly small.
        
           | dalyons wrote:
           | now that 98% of cars sold are BEV, i wonder how long its
           | gunna take for that 1/3rd to get to 95%
        
         | eigenspace wrote:
         | > Particularly in heating, where peak demand is in times with
         | very little solar generation, it seems like this will be
         | challenging.
         | 
         | Heating is actually likely to be one of the easier questions
         | here, because heat is just fundamentally an easier problem to
         | tackle than most other intensive uses of energy in the modern
         | world.
         | 
         | 1. Solar isn't the only incredibly cheap form of intermittant
         | renwewable energy production. Wind is also great, tends to
         | support local manufacturing economies more than solar, and is
         | anti-correlated with peak-sunshine. The wind tends to blow
         | hardest in the winter and around sunset.
         | 
         | 2. Heatpumps can pretty comfortably achieve 300+% coefficients
         | of performance, meaning that for every joule of energy you put
         | into a heatpump, you'll get 3+ joules of heat pumped into your
         | home, office, or city-scale heat thermos
         | 
         | 3. Heat energy storage is cheap compared to batteries. You just
         | store large quantities of water or sand and heat it up with a
         | resistor or a heat pump. The scaling of surface area versus
         | volume ensures that the bigger you make the heat-battery, the
         | less energy you'll lose from it over time (percentage wise).
         | 
         | 4. Heat is a waste product from many other forms of energy
         | usage, and can be harnessed. For instance, gas peaker plants
         | aren't going away any time soon, and cities which aren't
         | harnessing the waste heat from those peaker plants and using it
         | in a district heating system are wasting both money and carbon.
         | 
         | Just a couple kilometers from my home for instance is a gas
         | power plant that stores waste heat in giant thermoses, and
         | pumps hot water to my building to to be used for heating. They
         | currently have the largest heat pump in europe under
         | construction on the same site intended to supplement the gas
         | plant, both to take up slack from the fact that it'll be
         | running less often, and to expand the service to yet more
         | households.
        
         | Moldoteck wrote:
         | the prerequisite for fast electrification is cheap electricity.
         | Currently many EU countries have expensive electricity for
         | households
        
           | p0pularopinion wrote:
           | This is just objectively untrue. Source: I live in Germany, a
           | country with some of the highest electricity prices, I drive
           | a BEV and I heat my home with a heatpump. My systems SCOP
           | hovers around 3.5, which means that my kWh of heat made from
           | my heatpump with electricity is cheaper than my current gas
           | rate.
           | 
           | My heatpump electricty bill is significantly lower as
           | compared to my apartment (Gas furnace), despite both
           | buildings being roughly comparable late 80s construction.
           | 
           | I charge my car at my standard electrcity rate of 32ct/kWh,
           | and I pay now about half for the same usage.
           | 
           | Electricity is expensive, yeah. But electrified stuff is also
           | significantly more efficient than fossil tech
        
       | pranavj wrote:
       | The most underreported part of this story is the battery piece at
       | the end. Batteries are beginning to displace natural gas in
       | evening peak hours - that's the exact window where solar critics
       | have long argued renewables fall short. If this trend accelerates
       | (and battery prices are dropping faster than most models
       | predicted), the "intermittency problem" starts looking more like
       | a solvable engineering challenge than a fundamental barrier.
       | 
       | The next milestone to watch: when battery-backed solar becomes
       | cheaper than gas peakers for evening demand across most of
       | Europe. We might be closer than people think.
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Those are two thresholds: cheaper than peakers using piped gas
         | from Russia, and cheaper than peakers using LNG shipped via
         | tanker ship. I imagine the latter threshold has already been
         | met, only depending on the amortization period you choose for
         | the battery purchase.
        
         | mekdoonggi wrote:
         | I looked into sodium-ion batteries for which factories are
         | coming online in China. The theoretical manufacturing cost of
         | those is very very low, which will make solar + batteries very
         | cheap. I suspect China will reach those costs ahead of
         | schedule.
        
           | danny_codes wrote:
           | IMO this is a classic case of underestimating how far
           | manufacturing improvements can get you on the cost scale. You
           | see a promising technology in the lab and it's hard to
           | imagine a 1 million x reduction in price, yet we see that
           | time and time again as tech gets scaled out.
           | 
           | What's wild to me is how the US is leaving itself in the
           | dust. How the GOP imagines we'll be competitive when the rest
           | of the world can produce electricity 10x cheaper than we can
           | is a wonder in itself
        
             | toyg wrote:
             | _> ow the GOP imagines we'll be competitive when the rest
             | of the world can produce electricity 10x cheaper_
             | 
             | By forcing oil prices to get 10x cheaper, at the barrel of
             | a gun. See: Venezuela and Iran. Will it work? I would not
             | bet on it.
        
               | matthewdgreen wrote:
               | Seems unlikely that we'll be selling oil for $5, unless
               | fossil fuels are completely replaced and it becomes a
               | side-of-the-road novelty.
        
             | monero-xmr wrote:
             | I mean where are all the factories making batteries in
             | Europe? It's not like the US is purposefully preventing
             | battery tech. It's why all of the government-funded solar
             | companies imploded as well. The manufacturers do not
             | compete
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | Intermittence really has always had the flavor of an
         | engineering problem instead of a physics problem (it is about
         | putting the energy when/where humans want it, rather than
         | having enough of it). IMO load shifting seems like a cleverer
         | and more engineer-y solution. Imagine a giant smart system
         | where all of our appliances talk to each-other and can optimize
         | the timings of their workloads. It's a magnificent society-wide
         | scheduling problem! The papers we could write!
         | 
         | Throwing batteries at it is a kind of blunt and uninteresting
         | solution (I guess the market will prefer that one!).
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | I ain't gonna use the dishwasher when the system wants me to,
           | but when I can or want.
           | 
           | I pay low energy prices during night than day, that's normal,
           | but I'm still not gonna do laundry at 9 pm, I'd rather pay
           | the 10/20 cents more during the day.
        
             | bee_rider wrote:
             | If I had a combined washer/dryer and could just load the
             | clothes up and say "do it whenever" I'd go for that. But
             | that's very dependent on only needing to do one load per
             | day.
        
             | matthewdgreen wrote:
             | A typical dishwasher load requires 1-3kWh, so you'll just
             | use your home battery and do it whenever you want.
        
             | lejalv wrote:
             | I do time my dishwasher and washing machine to align with
             | peak solar where I live.
             | 
             | I'd like to appeal to you to evolve that frame of mind. To
             | help avoid first world problems (I can't wash a dish by
             | hand, I need it _now_ ) devolving into third-world ones
             | (power cuts, crop failures, torrid tropical nights on mid
             | latitudes, mountains disintegrated).
             | 
             | Sometimes its important to remind we're on a generational
             | mission, and it's not maximising Netflix time.
        
             | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
             | But you will charge your car when it's cheaper. And add a
             | cheap home battery to remove expensive peak usage.
        
           | evan_a_a wrote:
           | In engineering the simple solution is often the best
           | solution. Creating a demand-side network of devices is not
           | that.
           | 
           | Plus, such a system would provide even more ways for
           | nefarious actors to sabotage the grid, by influencing the
           | demand side. For example, setting every appliance to run its
           | load at the same time. The grid would be fucked.
        
           | terj74 wrote:
           | This is already happening with market pricing of electricity
           | energy demands that can be shifted. Our car charges, and our
           | dishwasher/clothes washer run when pricing is low. The price
           | differential is not big enough yet between high and low
           | demand times for us to invest in a battery to soak up cheap
           | power. If battery prices continue to go down, or if the price
           | differential goes up that equation will change. The other
           | main expensive energy user is HVAC and we don't have a way of
           | moving that demand to a different time of day other than a
           | batterv. :(
        
         | IshKebab wrote:
         | The problem with solar isn't the night. Getting enough
         | batteries to cover that is totally doable. The issue is the
         | winter. And not even because of fewer daylight hours - on sunny
         | winter days there is usually still a good amount of solar.
         | 
         | The problem is its often very cloudy in the winter. In the UK
         | in winter we regularly have periods of 5 cloudy days in a row
         | where solar output is virtually zero.
         | 
         | I don't know what the answer to that is. In a calm cloudy
         | winter week all renewables _and battery storage_ are totally
         | screwed. Space based solar is a scam. Maybe we just have to
         | live with it until fusion works (if it ever does).
         | 
         | (But it's still academic at the moment because we're still far
         | from the point where building more renewables is a bad idea.)
        
           | KaiserPro wrote:
           | > In the UK in winter we regularly have periods of 5 cloudy
           | days
           | 
           | True, but then for the UK solar power isn't the right thing
           | for winter, hence why we need a massive mix of other stuff.
           | 
           | Also we have the advantage that france isn't that far away.
           | 
           | In the UK battery is about grid stabilisation, as in making
           | sure that it hums at 50hz rather than 49.
        
             | kieranmaine wrote:
             | Battery revenues are shifting away from stabilisation now
             | from https://cn-cob.com/info-detail/2026-uk-energy-storage-
             | market...:
             | 
             | > the focus of energy storage has shifted from frequency
             | services to energy arbitrage. Due to market saturation, the
             | share of frequency services in the revenue stack has
             | significantly declined, from 80% in 2022 to just 20% in
             | 2024. Looking ahead to 2030, we expect energy arbitrage to
             | dominate the revenue stack, with most revenue coming from
             | participation in the balancing mechanism.
        
               | KaiserPro wrote:
               | Indeed, in the same way that solar has now peaked in
               | spain/portugal in its current config. They are moving to
               | solar+battery to absorb solar mid day and replay that in
               | the morning/evening. (that doesn't really apply in the UK
               | because of the rain)
               | 
               | As more renewables come on stream and the grid gets more
               | complex, batteries are going to plug holes.
               | 
               | Energy Arbitrage is usually a good thing, so long as its
               | regulated to for the customer, not the battery people.
               | the point is that battery capacity is being deployed to
               | even out the 5-9pm peak, which means that we are much
               | much less dependent on gas turbine generators (which
               | means less price pressure linked to LNG prices, if you're
               | not into the co2 aspect)
        
           | kieranmaine wrote:
           | Regarding long term storage keep an eye on the UK's Cap and
           | Floor scheme which offers guaranteed revenues to long term
           | storage technologies [1].
           | 
           | Page 7 of https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-0
           | 9/LDES%20... lists the technology types of the project
           | applications. The majority are Li-Ion BESS, but there are
           | also other battery chemistries and Liquid/Compress Air
           | Storage
           | 
           | 1. https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-release/super-battery-
           | project...
        
           | micwag wrote:
           | > In a calm cloudy winter week all renewables and battery
           | storage are totally screwed. Hydro doesn't really care about
           | a calm cloudy winter week and is the reason my state was 100%
           | renewable last year. So it's definitely not a problem for ALL
           | renewables.
        
           | MakersF wrote:
           | It's unfair you're being down voted, you're right. I used to
           | think that we could get by with just solar wind and
           | batteries, but then after collaborating with people on an
           | ideal energy mix the numbers were obvious: there is a (small)
           | fraction that cannot be covered. Not with storage (the
           | discharge cycles are so few that the cost is prohibitive. How
           | can a battery pay for itself with 10-20 discharges a year?
           | And this applies to any kind of battery that needs to be
           | built, including hydro). Likely there will need to be some
           | baseload nuclear (which then increases average prices, since
           | to make it economical you need to buy all the electricity it
           | produces, and so it partially displaces renewables). The
           | alternative is overbuilding solar+wind+battery something like
           | 5/8 times the average need. Maybe if the prices drop enough
           | that could be feasible.. The big win would be if there is
           | some way to get predictable power at a lower cost than
           | nuclear (e.g. tidal), which could be used to smooth the
           | troughts, or alternatively a low capex but potentially high
           | opex solution which is turned on only when needed (gas is an
           | option, but not co2 free. And sizing the power needed is not
           | super cheap, although now it's not a problem since we have
           | enough gas capacity which is going to be displaced, so it
           | won't be needed to be built)
        
           | kilroy123 wrote:
           | Just over build the solar. Build out solar so demand in
           | winter is met.
           | 
           | Use the excess power in summer for some kind of industrial
           | use.
        
           | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
           | Keep some of the existing natural gas plants around as an
           | emergency reserve. Run them on hydrogen or hydrogen
           | derivatives for zero carbon fuel, if the emissions are large
           | enough to matter.
        
         | epolanski wrote:
         | A huge part of this calculus though is that the gas we buy
         | since Russia disappeared as a provider is insanely high.
         | 
         | Our economics may not match Canadian or US ones.
        
       | andsoitis wrote:
       | There's a certain poetic aspect to this.
       | 
       | Fossils are dead, slow.
       | 
       | Wind moves fast. Photons move even faster.
        
       | dotdi wrote:
       | At the same time subsidies are being phased out. I was about to
       | get 8kW panels + batteries installed when my country decided to
       | pull them, and I'm not going to spend 10k out of pocket.
        
       | sp4cec0wb0y wrote:
       | Imagine the powerhouse America would be (pun intended) if we
       | subsidized nuclear energy to become the defacto producer of
       | nuclear power plants world wide. Sometimes it is easier said than
       | done but this really is as easy as said.
        
         | mrks_hy wrote:
         | You have it backwards. At the current cost curve for renewables
         | and storage, Nuclear will never again be able to compete.
         | 
         | See: the overly optimistic SMR plans being predictably scrapped
         | in many places.
         | 
         | What you do have is ample land to build out solar and export
         | eg. Ammonia (made out of Hydrogen) for "free" energy.
        
           | sp4cec0wb0y wrote:
           | Correct me if I am wrong but the only reason nuclear is
           | expensive is because of how costly the facilities are to
           | build and maintain. If we were not setback during the anti-
           | nuclear era, we would have gained economies of scale. The
           | reason why solar is so cheap is for the exact same reason is
           | it not? I am not an expert on this topic so take everything I
           | say with a massive grain of salt as I am willing to be wrong
           | on this.
           | 
           | Edit: After further reading it appears that solar will be the
           | defacto affordable option in energy production, even with
           | SMRs and streamlined construction in the picture. Perhaps a
           | mix of renewables, better battery infra, and SMRs for stable
           | sources of power is the future.
        
             | Moldoteck wrote:
             | SMR will always have worse economics than LMR's if both are
             | streamlined
        
             | adrianN wrote:
             | Power plants with high capex like nuclear have a hard time
             | competing in a market where power is essentially free when
             | it's sunny or windy. Running something like a nuclear power
             | plant only for a few hundred hours a year when it's neither
             | sunny nor windy is too expensive compared to (hydrogen) gas
             | peakers (or other forms of storage)
        
           | Moldoteck wrote:
           | nuclear can compete if we re-learn to build on time and on
           | budget. Japanese abwr did cost 3bn and done in <4y. China
           | does the same now for cheaper. There's no such thing as free
           | hydrogen, nor it will be
        
             | thinkcontext wrote:
             | Even in China the case for nuclear isn't overwhelming. They
             | are building a lot of nuclear relative to the rest of the
             | world but its not that much compared to how much wind and
             | solar they are deploying.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | Yes. Mostly because of inland ban. Costwise their nuclear
               | is extremely cheap, probably even cheaper than ren, but
               | it's harder to scale (or unwillingness). But per capita
               | they don't even match french deployments during messmer
               | or swedish bwr units during peak
        
         | thinkcontext wrote:
         | The US gave the nuclear industry a chance for a nuclear
         | renaissance with the subsidies they asked for towards the
         | AP1000. The industry whiffed big time. Looks like nuclear will
         | get another chance with the increased subsidies begun under
         | Biden, the deregulatory approach of Trump and the huge demand
         | spike in electricity. Its an open question on whether they'll
         | be able to deliver.
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | Now we just need to figure out scalable storage. Ideally
       | something like the sand batteries that you can scale with
       | construction equipment rather than just adding more rows of tiny
       | lithium batteries
        
         | eigenspace wrote:
         | The answer is likely going to have to be hydrogen, but there's
         | a pretty difficult catch with hydrogen: it makes zero sense to
         | invest in _any_ hydrogen electricity storage infrastructure
         | until the grid is already like 80+% renewable.
         | 
         | There's simply no sense in turning electricity into hydrogen so
         | that it could be used in 6 months (losing 50+% of the energy
         | along the way as heat!) when you could just sell that
         | electricity right now, or stick it in a battery so you can use
         | it 6 hours from now.
         | 
         | There will be an economic case for hydrogen energy storage in
         | Europe in 10 years, but unfortunately the technology is
         | basically sitting at a standstill right now with no attention
         | and no investment because it's not needed yet.
        
           | Moldoteck wrote:
           | even in 10y h2 is economically unviable. Check out
           | Norway/Sweden, they got tons of ren. Are they some _cheap_ H2
           | generation meccas? There are some chances for other synth
           | fuels but H2 is just a pipedream
        
             | eigenspace wrote:
             | Norway and Sweden have tones of renewable energy, but
             | relatively little intermittent energy. If the economics of
             | H2 ever work, it'll only ever work in a grid that's driven
             | by intermittent energy sources (wind and solar).
             | 
             | A hydro-driven grid does not need storage. Hell, if you
             | have enough hydro, it can even be your storage. Not all of
             | Europe has the geography to be able to cover their needs
             | with just hydro.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | H2 economics work if you have constant oversupply. If
               | your electrolyzer works only 50% of the time and storing
               | is expensive, transporting is expensive and roundtrip
               | efficiency is abysmal, it'll still cost a ton. Higher
               | chances to use just cheaper gas generation because even
               | LNG is cheaper than H2 saga.
        
               | eigenspace wrote:
               | Not a constant oversupply because then you'd never need
               | the hydrogen in the first place. H2 economics (if they
               | ever work) will work in a place where there's a seasonal
               | gradient in energy production that's over too long a time
               | horizon for batteries.
        
               | Moldoteck wrote:
               | Per lazard, currently, merely 25% green H2 peakers would
               | provide power for as expensive as worst nuclear project
               | in US- Vogtle. So a mere 1/4 mix is as bad as a terribly
               | mismanaged construction project. H2 economics for
               | electricity are non existent. It will be used fo other
               | sectors maybe, like fertilizers
        
               | eigenspace wrote:
               | Look, I don't really want to be in the position of
               | defending H2 here as I'm not particularly confident or
               | optimistic about it, but I'm not really currently seeing
               | a better alternative for seasonal energy shifting.
               | 
               | If Germany was willing to build new nuclear power plants
               | I'd be potentially in favour, but it's not going to to
               | happen, so H2 will likely be the way, and it won't be
               | cheap.
               | 
               | That said, I also invite you to go look at cost estimates
               | for batteries from just 5 years ago and compare them to
               | today, or solar / wind cost estimates from 15 years ago.
               | Those technologies have experienced significant
               | reductions in cost due to scale and industrial learning.
               | 
               | IMO the biggest problem with H2 is that similar sorts of
               | learning / scaling processes simply won't even start
               | until the grid evolves to a point where the seasonal
               | demand shifting is actually required, but by then it's
               | essentially too late. And there's not really any hope of
               | governments kickstarting the learning process with
               | artificial demand because people will make all sorts
               | convincing arguments for why it's a stupid waste.
               | 
               | So I guess we'll see what happens. Perhaps stuff like
               | fertilizer and steel will help the technology matures
               | before the grid needs it, or perhaps battery technology
               | will surprise us again, or someone will figure out how to
               | make flow batteries work or whatever. I'm not
               | particularly confident in any of these technologies, but
               | we'll just have to wait and see what happens I guess.
               | 
               | Something *does* need to be done about storage though,
               | even with all the complementary wind-solar and giant
               | Lithium or Sodium battery installations, and all the HVDC
               | you could want.
        
       | baxtr wrote:
       | If you're interested in this topic I highly recommend Tony Seba's
       | analyses.
       | 
       | He argues that because solar and wind are now the cheapest forms
       | of new energy generation, they are on an unstoppable exponential
       | "S-curve" that will make coal, gas, and nuclear power obsolete by
       | 2030.
       | 
       | Look up his videos on YT, for example this one:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj96nxtHdTU
        
       | 1970-01-01 wrote:
       | Solar with a modern LFP battery system is a no-brainer solution
       | for 21st century energy infrastructure. The safety record beats
       | pretty much everything else, and as long as the sun is out, it
       | just works.
        
         | pornel wrote:
         | In the UK just having batteries already helps. There's a
         | surplus of wind at night. Shifting it to 5pm peaks pays back
         | the cost of the battery quicker than solar panels pay for
         | themselves.
        
         | eigenspace wrote:
         | Focusing on Solar+Battery is only effective when the solar is
         | not accounting for a majority of electricity generation (at
         | least in geographies significantly north of the tropics). The
         | problem is that while the sun shines, solar will drive everyone
         | else out of business, but then leaves you stranded in the
         | winter, and no practical amount of electricity storage will
         | save you.
         | 
         | Fortunately, wind energy generation also exists, and is a
         | nearly ideal complement to solar power, because it's nearly as
         | cheap as solar, and its energy peaks are mostly anti-correlated
         | with solar energy peaks (typically the winter and sunset are
         | the windiest parts of the year / day).
         | 
         | Wind's main problem is that it's more reliant on large scale
         | projects (rather than solar which scales all the way from a
         | pocket calculator to an installation the size of city), and
         | wind is also more susceptible to regulatory / NIMBY sabotage
         | than solar.
         | 
         | Especially with China currently flooding the market with cheap
         | solar and batteries, I think it makes sense for governments to
         | focus much more of their attention and efforts on promoting (or
         | at least getting out of the way of) wind projects, and let the
         | market drive solar adoption.
        
       | weslleyskah wrote:
       | > In 2025, both Ireland and Finland joined the ranks of European
       | countries that have shuttered their last remaining coal plants.
       | 
       | Interesting, they mentioned Finland. I wonder how Norway and
       | Finland fair using solar since they have rigorous winters with
       | polar nights.
        
         | fulafel wrote:
         | Hydro in Norway, nuclear+wind in Finland.
         | 
         | https://www.iea.org/countries/norway/electricity
         | https://www.iea.org/countries/finland/electricity
        
           | weslleyskah wrote:
           | Very interesting.
           | 
           | I was also reading:
           | https://norwegianscitechnews.com/2019/10/the-way-forward-
           | for...
        
       | canucktrash669 wrote:
       | WW3 called and said solar is harder to disrupt through bombing
       | than massive power plants. Seems like a great deal even if it was
       | more expensive.
        
         | Moldoteck wrote:
         | disrupting the grid will still be easy. And cluster bombs can
         | heavily impact land solar
        
           | jojomodding wrote:
           | It might be, but to disrupt the solar array on my rooftop you
           | need to bomb it specifically. Times a hundred million, it
           | becomes infeasible.
        
             | Moldoteck wrote:
             | that's true, but hardly relevant for the grid, especially
             | considering many ppl dont even have a battery and have grid
             | following solar panels which shut down the moment grid is
             | down
        
       | when_creaks wrote:
       | Encouraging. However, it isn't clear from the article at first
       | glance (or the deeper analysis being referenced) how electricity
       | _consumption_ by power source is changing.
       | 
       | In other words, as an example, a 10% increase in solar power
       | generation does not necessarily mean that there was a 10%
       | increase in electricity consumption where that electricity was
       | generated via solar.
       | 
       | i.e. It is entirely possible for a growing solar fleet to
       | generate more power during the middle of the day than previously,
       | and simultaneously for not all of that increased power to be used
       | / usable.
        
         | eigenspace wrote:
         | What you're talking about is commonly called "curtailment",
         | where power generators like wind and solar can be told to
         | basically stop feeding into the grid, effectively wasting their
         | energy.
         | 
         | From what I recall, curtailment of wind and solar at least in
         | Germany amounts to about 3% wasted energy from those sources,
         | so no, it's not a very significant worry. These renewable
         | sources really are displacing fossil fuels.
         | 
         | A big part of this story is batteries. Especially during the
         | summer, the wholesale electricity price in Germany can swing
         | daily from -10 to +10 cents per kWh during the mid-day, up to
         | 150+ cents per kWh at night, due to supply-and-demand.
         | 
         | This gradient in prices creates a huge incentive for people to
         | build batteries that buy up cheap electricity during the day
         | (sometimes literally getting paid to do so), so that they can
         | sell it back later on in the day when prices rise. This
         | incentive helps make sure energy does not get wasted, it
         | encourages more batteries to be installed, and it encourages
         | businesses to shift the their energy usage to times of the day
         | that align with high renewable output.
        
       | softwaredoug wrote:
       | It used to be the big worry among climate activists that you'd
       | never get every country organize and move in one direction. Like
       | you'd need some global body to clean everything up.
       | 
       | That's very fragile.
       | 
       | Luckily, we're moving to a world where a disjoint, self-
       | interested response can be an advantage. Countries decide, for
       | their own selfish reasons, to adopt green energy. For energy
       | independence, affordability, clean air, etc.
       | 
       | So when one country politically rotates out for dumb reasons,
       | other countries pick up the slack and make a bit of progress.
        
         | buckle8017 wrote:
         | Oil the west doesn't use isn't magically staying in the ground.
         | 
         | Middle and low income countries (most notably China) increased
         | consumption is more than offsetting reductions from high income
         | countries.
        
       | throw7 wrote:
       | And in U.S., Trump stopped the coastal wind farms here in the
       | east... for "national security" reasons.
        
       | buckle8017 wrote:
       | I'm extremely skeptical of that graph because it has zero
       | seasonal variation.
       | 
       | Solar performs dramatically worse in the winter than in summer.
        
         | azornathogron wrote:
         | The graph I see in the article displays a single data point per
         | year. You're not going to see seasonal variation in a graph
         | with that resolution. Is there another graph that I missed?
        
       | hbarka wrote:
       | In Davos yesterday, our great leader was gaslighting the audience
       | to believe that Europe buys wind power equipment from China
       | whilst China themselves do not believe or use the very windmills
       | they sell.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_China
        
       | pranavj wrote:
       | Related: The 80% Problem: Why the Energy Transition Isn't What
       | You Think - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46724535
        
         | baal80spam wrote:
         | Thanks a lot, this is eye-opening.
        
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