[HN Gopher] SpaceX lowering orbits of 4,400 Starlink satellites ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       SpaceX lowering orbits of 4,400 Starlink satellites for safety's
       sake
        
       Author : thread_id
       Score  : 49 points
       Date   : 2026-01-22 08:21 UTC (14 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.space.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.space.com)
        
       | Jean-Papoulos wrote:
       | From a comment :
       | 
       | >The first move in the coming WWIII, where the emperors try to
       | expand their empires militaril,y will be to wipe out any orbit
       | with Starlink satellites.
       | 
       | I find this highly unlikely, given Starlink is soon to reached
       | 10k satellites and will continue to grow. Why expand 10 000
       | ballistic missiles to bring down one of many communications
       | networks ?
        
         | xxs wrote:
         | Starlink has already been used in Russian's war against
         | Ukraine. Of course the satellites can take photos as a bonus.
         | 
         | It's a massive spy network, if weaponized.
        
           | DrScientist wrote:
           | It's also been used for regime change attempts - part of the
           | internet that's harder to shutdown, though apparently jamming
           | GPS currently appears to be quite effective.
           | 
           | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-
           | in...
        
           | GuB-42 wrote:
           | What kind of pictures can starlink would take? When I look at
           | pictures of starlink satellites, I don't see a camera. Maybe
           | they have one, but if we can't see it, it is most likely
           | useless for observation, except for taking pretty pictures of
           | the Earth, or maybe other passing satellites.
           | 
           | Spy satellites are more like space telescopes, but pointed at
           | the Earth. As an example, Hubble is designed after a spy
           | satellite, the "camera" is pretty massive and obvious.
           | 
           | Starlink can probably be weaponized for a variety of thing,
           | like for communication, obviously, but I don't think earth
           | optical observation is one of them.
        
             | NetMageSCW wrote:
             | Perhaps Starlink can not (or wasn't designed for it) but
             | Starshield includes cameras and other sensors on some of
             | its satellites.
        
         | TOMDM wrote:
         | Because Kessler syndrome means you don't need to hit all 10k
         | yourself.
         | 
         | Lowering the orbits just means that we get back to normal
         | faster, not that the it's impossible.
        
           | lijok wrote:
           | Does Kessler syndrome also mean ICBMs become nonviable?
        
             | Dylan16807 wrote:
             | No.
             | 
             | It's not a wall. The risk from going through a dangerous
             | orbit is much much less than the risk from staying there.
        
               | goku12 wrote:
               | That depends on how you define risk. If it means the
               | probability of a collision, then you'd be correct. But if
               | a collision does happen, the consequences will be worse
               | than being in the same orbit. Based on an oversimplified
               | model, debris in orbit is likely to have low relative
               | velocities with respect to an intact satellite in the
               | same orbit, since a large deltav would change the orbit.
               | (It's not as simple as this, but it's good enough in
               | practice.)
               | 
               | This is actually what asat weapons take advantage of.
               | They usually don't even reach orbital velocity, just like
               | ballistic missiles (of course, there are exceptions like
               | the golden dome monstrosity). The kill vehicle just
               | maneuvers itself into the path of the satellite and lets
               | the satellite plough into it at hypervelocity.
        
             | gpderetta wrote:
             | I remember a short story about Canada preventing total
             | global annihilation in WWIII, by deliberately triggering
             | Kessler syndrome. My google-fu is failing me though.
        
               | iberator wrote:
               | I would love to read it:)
        
           | NetMageSCW wrote:
           | Stop trying to make Kessler syndrome a thing. Kessler
           | syndrome isn't a thing, and it will never be a thing.
           | 
           | PS The original paper expects the cascade to take decades to
           | centuries. No one can afford to shoot down Starlink except
           | SpaceX.
        
             | pixelpoet wrote:
             | Stop trying to boss people around, and just make your point
             | with some citations.
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | If it's WWIII, and you're using ballistic missiles against
         | satellite constellations, then either:
         | 
         | - You are not targeting _individual_ satellites; you 're
         | setting off nuclear warheads in space, and relying on the EMP
         | to disable all satellites within a large radius of the blast -
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse
         | 
         | or
         | 
         | - You're nuking the ground-based command & control centers for
         | those satellites. Again, nothing like 10,000 missiles needed.
         | 
         | (Or both.)
         | 
         | To target 10,000 satellites directly, the "obvious" weapon
         | would be a few satellite-launch rockets, lofting tons of BB's
         | (or little steel bolts, or whatever) - which would become a
         | sort of long-duration artillery barrage shrapnel in orbit.
        
           | NetMageSCW wrote:
           | The BB idea doesn't really work either- if they are in orbit
           | they circle with the satellites and don't hit anything, if
           | they are at different speeds they are in different orbits and
           | fly above and below the satellites and miss, if they cross
           | the orbit SpaceX just moves the satellites to miss.
        
         | aucisson_masque wrote:
         | You don't need 10k missiles. You need just one to blow up all
         | of starlink satellites.
         | 
         | This is like bowling, you hit one, it hits the other one
         | etceteras.
        
           | jdiez17 wrote:
           | You would likely need at least one per orbital plane, of
           | which there are about 24.
        
             | goku12 wrote:
             | Blowing up something in the same orbit as the targets isn't
             | an effective strategy. The explosion disperses the
             | fragments into different orbits that intersect the original
             | orbit only at one or two points. And even if some of those
             | fragments find their targets, the collision velocity will
             | be low (relatively slow).
             | 
             | It will be like getting hit with with shrapnels from a
             | grenade. Depending on how they collide, the target may
             | survive. If you think that grenade shrapnels are fast, you
             | need to understand the 'hypervelocity impact' that happens
             | when objects in different orbits collide, or when an
             | interceptor hits a satellite. Hypervelocity impacts are
             | impacts where the impactor moves faster than the speed of
             | sound in the solid target. What that means in practice is
             | that the debris/interceptor may have hit one end of the
             | satellite and vaporized already, while the other end of the
             | satellite doesn't yet feel the shock and vibration from
             | that impact. That end doesn't yet know about the carnage
             | that's about to hit it in a few milliseconds.
        
           | NetMageSCW wrote:
           | That is not how it works at all.
           | 
           | Imagine using a rocket and blowing up one car on a highway -
           | how many other cars will actually be affected? How many cars
           | on other highways will be affected?
        
         | LightBug1 wrote:
         | What was that game on old PC's? ... Minesweeper ...
        
         | tlb wrote:
         | You could launch some missiles, blow a few satellites into
         | smithereens, and gradually over the next few months they would
         | take out the others. That's a poor kind of war weapon. An
         | effective weapon is one where you can inflict damage
         | continuously, and are able to stop immediately upon some
         | concession. If you can't offer to stop in return for
         | concessions, you won't get any.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Its not really that easy, to cause such a chain reaction,
           | specially if the other person reacts.
           | 
           | And its also really expensive, each sat you take down costs
           | you far more then what you hit. So unless you can actually
           | cause a chain reaction its a losing proposition.
        
           | RealityVoid wrote:
           | You don't take down satellites in order to force someone to
           | negotiate, you take them down for denial of capabilities.
        
           | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
           | Not really. That's more science fiction than reality. You
           | should try some Kerbal Space Program and explore how orbits
           | are affected by thrust = collisions, in different directions.
           | 
           | As soon as a satellite is hit the rest of the fleet can start
           | thrusting and raise their orbits to create a clear separation
           | to the debris field.
           | 
           | Following such an attack the rest of the fleet would of
           | course spread out across orbital heights and planes to
           | minimize the potential damage done by each hit, leading to
           | maximum cost for the adversary to do any damage. Rather than
           | like today where the orbits are optimized for ease of
           | management and highest possible bandwidth.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | Looking at the price of industrial lasers, right now the only
         | thing stoping a random 3rd world terrorist cell from being able
         | to afford to destroy all of them is the adaptive optics to
         | compensate for atmospheric turbulence.
         | 
         | Well, that and the fact that so much of the stuff on Amazon
         | etc. that's listed as "welding laser" is actually a soldering
         | iron.
        
           | NetMageSCW wrote:
           | I think you severely underestimate the amount of power you
           | would need to damage some Starlink satellites in the 4
           | minutes they would be visible while tracking them at
           | ridiculous speeds.
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | Or why try to shoot them down when you can also go to the
         | command center and turn them off? Or do a targeted strike on
         | said command center. The sattelites are plentiful and
         | redundant, but the network will collapse very quickly when
         | they're no longer controlled from the surface.
         | 
         | In fact, if SpaceX can no longer do any launches due to
         | whatever reason, Starlink will no longer be feasible after a
         | few year - if I'm reading it correctly, the sattelites have a
         | lifetime of only 5 years, meaning they will have to continually
         | renew them at a rate of 2000 new sattelites a year.
        
       | aucisson_masque wrote:
       | There are so many satellites in orbit that there is a pretty good
       | chance that if even one was to be hit by something and explode in
       | many pieces, it would crash another one and then another one
       | until there is nothing left.
       | 
       | The nasa is pretty scared of it, so is SpaceX.
        
         | fireflymetavrse wrote:
         | There is huge increase of orbital launches in recent years [1]
         | done mostly by SpaceX and China is also planning to double its
         | numbers in the coming years. The risks will be even higher.
         | 
         | [1] https://spacestatsonline.com/launches/country
        
         | goku12 wrote:
         | That's the Kessler Syndrome. But it's better if it happens in a
         | lower orbit, irrespective of what assets are present there.
         | Space will be free for exploration again in a few years since
         | all the debris there would eventually decay and deorbit.
         | 
         | The article mentions a few months at 480 km. I'm a little
         | skeptical about this figure though, because the last tracked
         | piece from an NRO satellite that was shot down at ~250 km by
         | SM-3 missile in operation burnt frost, lasted 20 months in
         | space before reentry. SpaceX is probably using a statistical
         | cutoff percentage of fragments to calculate the time. But all
         | the pieces are dangerous uncontrolled hypervelocity
         | projectiles. Spain lost a military communications satellite a
         | few days ago from a collision with a tiny undetermined space
         | debris.
        
           | _factor wrote:
           | Two objects colliding can send debris into different orbits.
           | Combined kinetic energy and mass differences can send debris
           | to many different orbits.
           | 
           | A golf ball hitting a bowling ball or basketball, both
           | traveling at 30 units of speed can produce quite a fast golf
           | ball. Not all of the debris will safely burn up.
        
             | tlb wrote:
             | At the speeds we're familiar with, basketballs and golf
             | balls have elastic collisions. At orbital speeds,
             | satellites are nearly inelastic. So fragment exit
             | velocities lie between the two initial velocities, k _v1 +
             | (1-k)_ v2 for some k that depends on where each fragment
             | came from. If they're colliding, the velocities must be
             | somewhat different, so the weighted average speed has to be
             | lower than orbital speed. So fragments usually don't
             | survive many orbits.
        
               | WithinReason wrote:
               | That's what I was thinking, Kessler syndrome should be
               | impossible for objects in LEO since all debris orbits
               | decay rapidly (probably 99.9% enter the atmosphere and
               | burn up in minutes, the rest in hours)
        
               | perilunar wrote:
               | I guess if a collision ruptures a pressurised tank, or
               | causes an actual explosion then you could end up with a
               | higher-than-orbit speed?
        
               | indoordin0saur wrote:
               | Possibly. But more likely the thrust from escaping gas
               | will push it in a direction to either slow the orbit down
               | or make it more eccentric and unstable.
        
               | tlb wrote:
               | Right, if there's something like a small hole in a
               | pressure tank, it's very unlikely to be aligned exactly
               | with the CG, so the tank will spin around and the net
               | thrust will be near zero.
               | 
               | If a pressure tank splits in half, both halves will fly
               | away but that's a very inefficient way of using the
               | energy in the gas, so the added velocity will be a small
               | fraction of the speed of sound in the gas, which is 1/6
               | of orbital speed for hydrogen, less for any other gas.
               | 
               | You can't really get much of a chemical explosion because
               | the fuel and oxidizer both disperse very quickly in
               | space.
        
               | indoordin0saur wrote:
               | Very well put. It also seems like there's a limit to how
               | bad Kessler syndrome can get. The more debris there is
               | the more collisions, but the more collisions the quicker
               | the debris collides with itself and de-orbits.
        
             | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
             | The periapsis will always pass through where the collision
             | happened.
             | 
             | To circularize at a higher orbit you would need secondary
             | collisions on the other side of the earth.
        
               | goku12 wrote:
               | You're right that all the fragments will pass roughly
               | through the impact point in orbit. But it's not always
               | the periapsis.
               | 
               | 1. The normal or anti-normal delta-v imparted by the
               | explosion/fragmentation (i.e, the velocity imparted
               | perpendicular the plane of initial orbit) will cause the
               | orbital plane of the fragment to change. The new orbit
               | will intersect the old orbit at the impact point.
               | Meanwhile, the eccentricity (the stretch of the orbit),
               | semi-major axis (the size of the orbit) and displacement
               | of periapsis from the impact point (the orientation of
               | the orbit) remains the same as the initial orbit.
               | 
               | 2. The prograde and retrograde delta-v (velocity imparted
               | tangential to the orbit) will cause the diametrically
               | opposite side of the orbit to rise or fall respectively.
               | Here too, the new orbit intersects the old orbit at the
               | point of impact. But since the impact point isn't
               | guaranteed to be the periapsis or apoapsis, the above
               | mentioned diametrically-opposing point also cannot be
               | guaranteed to be an apsis.
               | 
               | 3. The radial and anti-radial delta-v (this is in the
               | third perpendicular axis) will cause the orbit of the
               | fragment to either dip or rise radially at the point of
               | impact. Again the impact point remains the same for the
               | new orbit. So the new orbit will intersect the old orbit
               | either from the top or the bottom. The new orbit will
               | look like the old orbit with one side lowered and the
               | other side raised about the impact point.
               | 
               | So none of three components of delta-v shifts the orbit
               | from the impact point. You can extrapolate this to all
               | the fragments and you'll see that they will all pass
               | through the impact point. The highest chance of recontact
               | exists there. However the perturbation forces do disperse
               | the crossing point (the original impact point) to a
               | larger volume over time.
               | 
               | Edit: Reading the discussion again, I get what you were
               | trying to say. And I agree. The lowest possible altitude
               | of the fragments in orbit (i.e the periapsis) is the same
               | that of the impact point. So if the impact point is low
               | enough to cause drag, the orbit will decay for sure.
               | There is nothing that demonstrates this better than a
               | Gabbard plot [1][2] - the best tool for understanding
               | satellite fragmentation.
               | 
               | [1] Gabbard Plot Discussion (NASA Orbital Debris Program
               | Office): https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20150009502/
               | downloads/20...
               | 
               | [2] Satellite Breakup Analysis (Australian Space
               | Academy): https://www.spaceacademy.net.au/watch/debris/co
               | llision.htm
        
               | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
               | No worries. I think I could have been more precise in my
               | wording. :)
               | 
               | My comment is based on the hunch concerning physical
               | calculations and interactions from an engineering physics
               | degree and way to many hours in kerbal space program a
               | decade ago.
        
               | goku12 wrote:
               | Thanks! I figured that you had a reasonable understanding
               | in this subject. But I still couldn't help just laying it
               | out. I have some background too - as a professional.
        
               | xoa wrote:
               | > _But it 's not always the periapsis._
               | 
               | > _But since the impact point isn 't guaranteed to be the
               | periapsis or apoapsis, the above mentioned diametrically-
               | opposing point also cannot be guaranteed to be an apsis._
               | 
               | You're correct on the generalized case of the math here,
               | no argument at all, but this also feels like it's getting
               | a bit away from the specialized sub-case under discussion
               | here: that of an existing functional LEO satellite
               | getting hit by debris. Those aren't in wildly eccentric
               | orbits but rather station-kept pretty circular ones
               | (probably not perfectly of course but +/- a fraction of a
               | percent isn't significant here). So by definition the
               | high and low points are the same and which means we can
               | say that the new low point of generated debris in
               | eccentric orbits will be at worst no lower then the
               | current orbit of the satellite (short of a second
               | collision higher up, the probability of which is
               | dramatically lower). All possible impact points on the
               | path of a circular orbit are ~the same. And in turn if
               | the satellite is at a point low enough to have
               | significant atmospheric drag the debris will as well
               | which is the goal.
        
               | FranOntanaya wrote:
               | Solar pressure would be a small factor too, though I
               | assume it's not a big deal compared with orbital speeds.
        
             | goku12 wrote:
             | Just to elaborate the correct reply given by the others,
             | the perigee of all fragments will be less than or equal to
             | the altitude at impact point. If that's low enough, they
             | will all eventually decay and deorbit. Even the fragments
             | in elongated high-eccentricity orbits will have their
             | orbits circularized by lowering apogee (the perigee is
             | never going to rise) due to air drag. It will eventually
             | spiral into the atmosphere. Here is the best visualization
             | for this phenomenon - the Gabbard plot.
             | 
             | [1] Gabbard Plot Discussion (NASA Orbital Debris Program
             | Office): https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20150009502/do
             | wnloads/20...
             | 
             | [2] Satellite Breakup Analysis (Australian Space Academy):
             | https://www.spaceacademy.net.au/watch/debris/collision.htm
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | It's one reason why space should be regulated (but globally /
           | internationally), the systems in place are kinda loose and
           | more of a gentleman's agreement insofar as I understand it. A
           | plan for decomissioning / de-orbiting stuff should definitely
           | be mandatory. I know there's an area for geostationary
           | sattelites to park themselves after their lifespan, for
           | example.
           | 
           | But the LEO ones like Starlink will see their orbit decay in
           | about five years (if I'm reading things correctly) even if
           | they run out of fuel / can no longer be controlled, according
           | to e.g. https://space.stackexchange.com/a/59560. But it's
           | exponential, at 600 km it takes 10 years, at 700 25 years, at
           | 800 100 years, etc. Between 500-600 km seems to be ideal for
           | things to naturally decay in case of issues.
           | 
           | But also, it won't be a hard and fast "we are confined to the
           | earth now"; the simplest model is a "the risk of being hit by
           | debris is now x%", more advanced is "there are debris clouds
           | in these altitudes / inclinations so best to avoid those at
           | these times of day".
        
             | vermilingua wrote:
             | Given that the previous world police are presently treating
             | international law as toilet paper, how do you propose
             | global regulation of space would work or be enforced?
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | There are tentative signs that this is happening right now. As
         | in: each collision causes debris that on average causes more
         | than one additional collision, causing collision rates to go up
         | exponentially.
         | 
         | But so far it's not anything like in Hollywood movies, it's
         | just a graph slowly going up. There are about 12000 satellites
         | orbiting earth. That looks like a lot on a map, but 12000
         | objects spread over an area larger than the surface of the
         | earth isn't all that much
         | 
         | Like all exponential processes it will become a major issue if
         | we don't address it, but this is one that starts pretty slow
         | and is well monitored
        
           | spiritplumber wrote:
           | Yep. That's the things about exponential curves, it's a graph
           | slowly going up until it's no longer "slowly".
           | 
           | https://www.thefrogdoctrine.com/p/the-29th-day
        
             | indoordin0saur wrote:
             | This can't go up forever. There is only so much mass up
             | there in orbit, and much of it is in low earth orbit so
             | will fall back into the atmosphere quickly as it's
             | trajectory gets knocked off course.
        
           | childintime wrote:
           | > 12000 objects spread over an area larger than the surface
           | of the earth isn't all that much
           | 
           | People keep saying this, but the only way to assure there is
           | no collision is to have non-intersecting orbits, but that is
           | not going to work: not enough space.
           | 
           | It's a tell that SpaceX is now lowering the orbits, even
           | though their satellites mostly move in flocks that maintain a
           | formation relative to each other: because the other ways are
           | exhausted.
           | 
           | Of course if they do cause a (low orbit) Kessler syndrom,
           | then they don't have a business any more, and SpaceX will
           | have achieved the opposite of its stated goals.
           | 
           | The major reason to lower these orbits is likely the risk of
           | a terrorist state turning these constellations into a weapon,
           | by willingly causing the Kessler syndrome. SpaceX isn't going
           | to tell you that, just as it doesn't tell you it's the USA's
           | most important military asset.
        
             | notahacker wrote:
             | > The major reason to lower these orbits is likely the risk
             | of a terrorist state turning these constellations into a
             | weapon, by willingly causing the Kessler syndrome.
             | 
             | Hard to see how the repositioning appreciably alters this
             | risk, since there are still thousands of satellites in the
             | original plane to get hit by shrapnel from intentionally
             | caused collisions, and the satellites in the lower orbit
             | aren't invulnerable to it either
             | 
             | Suspect there's a rather more practical calculation that
             | the extra thruster firings needed to main position in a
             | lower orbit with more atmospheric drag are offset by the
             | smaller number of conjunction avoidance manoeuvres they
             | need to undertake in less congested space (the cost of
             | lowering the orbit is simply deducted from their original
             | delta-v budget for end of life deorbiting). In simple terms
             | they get lower accidental collision risk without operations
             | in the lower orbit shortening satellite lifetime.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | > Hard to see how the repositioning appreciably alters
               | this risk, since there are still thousands of satellites
               | in the same plane to get hit by shrapnel from
               | intentionally caused collisions, and the satellites in
               | the lower orbit aren't invulnerable to it either
               | 
               | Yes, but the lower the orbit, the faster atmospheric drag
               | (which isn't zero, just low) cleans up a cascade.
        
               | childintime wrote:
               | Exactly. And this is likely to be the only valid reason
               | for the orbit change.
        
               | notahacker wrote:
               | Feel like I'm repeating myself here, but _they 're moving
               | less than half of them_, which is going to have a
               | negligible impact on a state with sufficient ASAT
               | weapons' ability to create a massive mess with the many
               | thousands of Starlink satellites operating in their
               | original plane. Not even like the satellites in the
               | lowest orbit are insulated from the effects of debris
               | cascades set off in higher reaches of LEO either
               | 
               | Plenty of operational reasons to want a large fraction of
               | your constellation in a slightly lower orbit, none of
               | them involve "terrorist states"
        
         | tonyhart7 wrote:
         | small price to pay for global internet
        
           | ben_w wrote:
           | When it happens, it no longer provides global internet.
        
             | tonyhart7 wrote:
             | interstellar internet ???
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | If you smash up your router, your router does not
               | magically get better, it simply fails to provide any
               | internet.
               | 
               | The same happens with orbiting routers, e.g. Starlink
               | satellites.
        
               | tonyhart7 wrote:
               | and we would fix that shit, you acting like its
               | impossible problem
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | A Kessler cascade necessarily requires the density of
               | shrapnel destroys basically everything in that orbit.
               | Below the density where this happens, it isn't a Kessler
               | cascade in the first place.
               | 
               | You would be forced by (currently around) 2000 tons worth
               | of bullet-mass shrapnel to wait for that shrapnel to de-
               | orbit. Depending on the orbit, this takes months to
               | millenia, because it's determined by atmospheric drag.
               | 
               | The lower the orbit, the better. Starlink's orbits got
               | lowered, this is better vs. that particular issue.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | I think the maths is counterintuitive here and that 10-20-40
         | thousand objects, give or take, isn't that much. The volume of
         | space around our planet is HUGE.
         | 
         | Let us say that you had 10 thousand people running around on
         | Earth, including all the oceans and Antarctica, and that
         | collision of any two would release a hail of small deadly darts
         | into the troposphere lasting, for, at 2 years or so. Which is
         | approximately how long debris will last on LEO, though the
         | actual values vary.
         | 
         | You still wouldn't expect all those 10 thousand people to
         | obliterate themselves like that, as the Earth's surface is
         | pretty darn big.
         | 
         | The volume of the LEO-relevant space is much bigger than the
         | volume of the entire troposphere on Earth, because a) it is
         | further away from the Earth's center than the troposphere, b)
         | it is much deeper.
         | 
         | Now, 10 million objects, that would be a different story. So
         | would be some specific peculiar orbit which is overcrowded. But
         | tens of thousands of objects spread all over the entire planet
         | isn't that much. That would be like 2-5 people in total roaming
         | the entire Czechia, how often would they come into contact? Not
         | very often.
        
         | NetMageSCW wrote:
         | There is no chance at all of that happening, and especially not
         | at the orbital height of Starlink.
        
       | choeger wrote:
       | I think it's important to note that not all collisions are
       | equally dangerous. Consider a sat on a polar orbit colliding with
       | one on a equatorial orbit. Or two satellites on different
       | directions. _That_ is going to be spectacular. Otoh, these kind
       | of collisions are unlikely and should be manageable by just
       | assigning certain shells (say 5km) for every possible direction
       | and orientation.
       | 
       | If two Starlink satellites collide that go roughly in the same
       | direction, it's not exactly a huge problem.
       | 
       | I think the biggest issue is to coordinate this and potentially
       | disallow some excentric orbits.
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | Not quite how it works, unfortunately.
         | 
         | Once you've got even hundreds of satellites in non-equatorial
         | orbits, trying to provide global coverage - their ground tracks
         | very frequently cross each other. Even if they're all at the
         | same orbital inclination. While those mostly won't be 90 degree
         | crossings - the great majority will involve several km/s
         | relative velocity. And you'd run out of (say) 5km LEO shells
         | _very_ quickly.
        
       | nelox wrote:
       | What's the plan as the solar maximum returns?
        
       | yanis_t wrote:
       | Can anyone explain how does one technically lower a satellite?
        
         | frumiousirc wrote:
         | Eject mass in the forward direction of its current tangent of
         | motion. Slow down to go down.
        
           | pandemic_region wrote:
           | So, for this they have a bit of expendable extra mass on
           | board? What material is it, would it not cause even more
           | debris then?
        
             | alecco wrote:
             | https://starlink.com/technology
             | 
             | > Efficient argon thrusters enable Starlink satellites to
             | orbit raise, maneuver in space, and deorbit at the end of
             | their useful life. Starlink is the first argon propelled
             | spacecraft ever flown in space.
             | 
             | And you can see "How Ion Engines Work in Under 60 Seconds"
             | https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_MUv28Yf_4g
        
             | goku12 wrote:
             | The 'expendable mass' is almost never a solid or liquid.
             | It's the gaseous combustion exhaust or plasma exhaust from
             | the satellite's thrusters. The advantage of gases is that
             | they just expand and disperse fast enough to be too wispy
             | to cause anything on impact.
             | 
             | However, there are a few systems that do use solid masses
             | for obtaining a reaction force. A remarkable example is
             | called a 'Yo-yo despinner' [1]. It was used in missions
             | like Phoenix (Mars mission) and Dawn (Asteroid belt proto-
             | planet mission). And yes, it does create space debris. But
             | those space debris are probably somewhere in orbit around
             | the sun. Nothing that those guys are going to be too
             | worried about.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yo-yo_de-spin
        
         | goku12 wrote:
         | Let me see if I can. Before we go to space, let's try something
         | on the ground. Imagine pitching a ball horizontally. What do
         | you expect if you pitch it too slow? The ball will curve more
         | towards the ground and meet it early, won't it? (In other
         | words, it doesn't go very far and doesn't stay airborne for
         | long). Going from ground to space, this action remains the
         | same. You need to 'lower an orbit'? Reduce its forward
         | velocity. It will curve more towards the planet and reach
         | closer to the ground.
         | 
         | However, there is a bit more detail involved here. Why doesn't
         | the satellite just fall to the Earth? (Please excuse me and
         | disregard this part if you know this already. I'm trying to
         | maintain conceptual continuity.) So, when something is flying
         | horizontally (no aerodynamic forces), we know that its
         | trajectory will curve towards the Earth due to the pull of
         | gravity. If the ground (on Earth) curves as fast as, or even
         | faster than the trajectory's curve, the object will never get
         | an opportunity to even reach the ground. This is 'orbiting'.
         | 
         | Now assume that the satellite is initially in a circular orbit.
         | The gravitational force acting on the satellite at any point in
         | the orbit is _perpendicular to the satellite 's velocity
         | vector_ and tangential to the orbit. The satellite will
         | maintain a constant speed at this point, since its velocity and
         | the force are always perpendicular [1]. So, what happens when
         | we reduce the satellite's forward velocity? Just as we've seen
         | with the ball, the satellite's trajectory (orbit) starts to
         | curve more towards Earth. Now a subtle, but important change
         | occurs. The velocity and the gravitational pull are no longer
         | perpendicular! They start to align! And when that happens, the
         | speed MUST increase. So, the satellite is now _losing altitude_
         | and _speeding up_ simultaneously [2]. At some point, the
         | satellite will pick up enough speed again to  'straighten its
         | curve' and avoid falling to the ground. In effect, the
         | satellite had to compensate for the lost velocity in order to
         | remain in orbit, and it did so by exchanging some of its
         | altitude (gravitational potential energy) for velocity (kinetic
         | energy) [3].
         | 
         | So our satellite 'fell' from where we slowed it down, until it
         | had enough velocity again to maintain orbit. At that point, the
         | gravity and the velocity are parallel again, since it will keep
         | falling otherwise [4]. But since it 'fell from a higher
         | altitude', it's speed is now too high for it to remain at that
         | altitude. The orbital curvature is a bit 'too straight' now and
         | it starts to curve away from Earth. So now we're in the exact
         | opposite situation of what was explained in the last paragraph.
         | The satellite is now climbing back up again! As it happens, the
         | satellite actually climbs back up to the point where we slowed
         | it down! And when at that point, its velocity is exactly the
         | same as what it was, after we had slowed it down! [5] So the
         | satellite did the inverse of what it did earlier - it exchanged
         | kinetic energy to get back its altitude (potential energy). The
         | satellite is now living in cycles juggling kinetic energy and
         | potential energy back and forth. The final effect is that the
         | point in orbit that's diametrically opposite to where you
         | slowed it down, is now at a lower altitude. And thus you've
         | effectively 'reduced the orbit'!
         | 
         | One more detail to pin down. How do we slow down a satellite in
         | the first place? Easy! Push the satellite in the opposite
         | direction of its velocity [6]. This is called 'retrograde
         | thrusting' or 'retro burn'. But that's about as easy as it
         | gets. Remember that unlike on Earth, you don't have a surface
         | (a wall or the ground) to lean against. Imagine pushing
         | something heavy on an ice rink. The good news is that you can
         | still push things on an ice rink. The only catch is that the
         | push force will set both the item and you in motion in opposite
         | directions [7]. And that's exactly what we do in space. We
         | throw out mass from the satellite in the form of super-fast
         | gaseous of plasma exhaust. The key is to throw out the mass
         | with as much momentum as possible. But the mass is limited by
         | how much you can carry - it's a depleting resource. So you're
         | basically left figuring out how to throw it out with ever
         | increasing speeds. And that's how we slow down the satellite in
         | space - fire your thrusters!
         | 
         | And finally to lower an orbit entirely, instead of just one
         | point on it, you have to do multiple firings. There are bunch
         | of these 'orbital maneuvers'. The most common one is the
         | Hohmann Transfer [8]. If you could understand what's given
         | above, most orbital maneuvers including Hohmann Transfer will
         | feel very intuitive to you.
         | 
         | [1] Speed is the magnitude of velocity and it remains steady in
         | a circular orbit. However, the perpendicular force will keep
         | bending the velocity vector, thus constantly changing its
         | direction.
         | 
         | [2] This is the from-the-first-principles explanation of
         | conservation of angular momentum. This is how the ballerina
         | spins faster by pulling in her arms.
         | 
         | [3] If this sounds like a 'negative feedback' phenomenon to
         | you, that's because it is. Feedback is a mathematical
         | construct. Nobody ever said that a feedback mechanism must be
         | implemented separately. Some systems have them inherently
         | built-in.
         | 
         | [4] This is the lowest point of the orbit - the periapsis.
         | 
         | [5] Yes. There is quite a bit of hand waving here. I didn't
         | explain why the satellite went back to its original position
         | with the exact same speed. But that's what actually happens. It
         | might take a lot more 'mathematical sense' to explain just
         | using words. One thing I know is that this has something to do
         | with the fact that the gravitational field is one of those
         | 'conservative fields'. If you take a trip inside a conservative
         | field, and return to the location where you started, you will
         | be left with the exact same (kinetic) energy as you started
         | with. You may exchange your energy during the trip, but you
         | always regain it back when you get back to the starting point,
         | no matter what path you took. As far as I understand, the
         | 'conservative' part refers to the part that the energy is
         | conserved and stored, and never lost. Unfortunately, the force
         | field that we're most familiar with - frictional force - isn't
         | conservative at all. If you're going on a trip, be ready to
         | spend some energy!
         | 
         | [6] One matter that confuses a lot of people is why the
         | satellite's position changed at the opposite side of the orbit,
         | instead of the point where we applied the force. The answer is
         | in the Newton's second law. Force changes momentum, not
         | position - at least not directly. The direct effect of
         | application of retro thrust is that the velocity reduces at
         | that point. The change of position on the other side of the
         | orbit is only a consequence of that velocity change.
         | 
         | [7] Yes, the Newton's vengeance law.
         | 
         | [8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohmann_transfer_orbit
         | 
         | [9] Every so often, someone comes along and argues that gravity
         | is not a real force and all these explanations are wrong. If
         | you want to deal with this in terms of relativity and space
         | time curvature, be my guest. But for all practical purposes,
         | the old faithful Newtonian physics works just fine, even as a
         | special case of relativity.
         | 
         | [10] This should probably have been a blog post. Please don't
         | shout at me if it annoys you. This is one of my favorite
         | subjects and I just got carried away. I used to teach and train
         | many students and junior professionals in these topics.
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | 3 week old news OP?
       | 
       | Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46457454
        
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