[HN Gopher] The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ic...
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       The world is one bad decision away from a silicon Ice Age
        
       Author : dlipovetsky
       Score  : 28 points
       Date   : 2026-01-12 20:15 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theregister.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theregister.com)
        
       | cmxch wrote:
       | Or perhaps one might pressure Washington to forcibly unwind the
       | deals with OpenAI and NVIDIA with the foundries.
        
       | mjhay wrote:
       | If a hot war pops off over Taiwan, affordable CPUs are going to
       | be a ways down the list of my concerns
        
         | yunfei wrote:
         | True
        
         | nehal3m wrote:
         | Except everything that runs on electricity has a CPU nowadays;
         | the world as it is cannot function without computing. Your
         | bank, your (municipal) government, airplanes, ships,
         | satellites, televisions, the cell network, cash registers, you
         | get the picture.
         | 
         | I realize the CPU's that requires won't implode on day one, but
         | computing becoming unaffordable or even economically unfeasible
         | will have disastrous knock on effects.
        
           | ThrowawayR2 wrote:
           | There are literally hundreds of semiconductor fabs of various
           | types and process nodes spread all around the world ( https:/
           | /en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... )
           | and the most common chips are fabricated on older, larger
           | process nodes anyway.
        
             | nehal3m wrote:
             | Those are facts, but the industry remains fragile. It
             | didn't take much during Covid, and the Nexperia supply
             | shock combined with DRAM shortages are doing a number on
             | automotive right now.
             | 
             | And I imagine the chips manufactured on older larger
             | process nodes would be subsumed to replace newer ones where
             | possible, which cascades. But that's just conjecture on my
             | part.
        
         | tim-tday wrote:
         | Car manufacturing grinds to a halt. Remember what happened to
         | auto prices in 2022? 10x that.
         | 
         | New appliances cannot be manufactured. What dos the absolute
         | absence of new durable goods do to the economy?
         | 
         | There's no new iPhone for five years. No new electronic
         | hardware at all. What does Apple stock do?
         | 
         | Own any index funds? Those tank too.
         | 
         | Rinse and repeat
         | 
         | Thinking of it as "affordable pcs" is exactly wrong which is
         | actually useful. Invert your totally wrong answer and now you
         | have an actual thought.
        
           | potato3732842 wrote:
           | As others have stated, there's fabs all over the world.
           | They're insufficient in quality and quantity to satisfy
           | current demand at current prices but they're there and can do
           | a lot of it, especially as demand and requirements get
           | reduced to meet what's available.
           | 
           | >Car manufacturing grinds to a halt.
           | 
           | >New appliances cannot be manufactured
           | 
           | Until they figure out how to repeal the laws that mandate the
           | features/specs that require the semiconductors in the types
           | and volumes that would be a non-starter.
           | 
           | Maybe your washer doesn't _need_ to detect how much stuff you
           | put in and second guess your water setting?
           | 
           | What are the statistical odds a $15k Nissan Kix being sold in
           | the desert will ever benefit from ABS?
           | 
           | >no new iPhone for five years. No new electronic hardware at
           | all
           | 
           | It's not absolute like that. It's more like move the decimal
           | one place on everything and that makes whole classes of
           | products non-viable.
           | 
           | >New appliances cannot be manufactured. What does the [severe
           | reduction in proportion to their semiconductor and
           | irreplaceable foreign part contents] absence of new durable
           | goods do to the economy?
           | 
           | Fixed for realism.
           | 
           | Demand is elastic to some extent. Prices go up. Industries
           | shrink, alternatives grow.
           | 
           | In any case, it's a relative transfer of wealth and power
           | from most of HN to their plumber and landscaper and those
           | otherwise less affected.
        
       | Supermancho wrote:
       | When nobody acted against Israel, China breathed a lot easier. I
       | think the result affecting affordable CPUs will be the biggest
       | concern for the next ~15 year window.
        
       | Lammy wrote:
       | "If the system breaks down the consequences will still be very
       | painful. But the bigger the system grows the more disastrous the
       | results of its breakdown will be, so if it is to break down it
       | had best break down sooner rather than later."
        
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       (page generated 2026-01-12 23:01 UTC)