[HN Gopher] Tesla sales fell by 9 percent in 2025, its second ye...
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Tesla sales fell by 9 percent in 2025, its second yearly decline
Author : rbanffy
Score : 90 points
Date : 2026-01-02 21:48 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (arstechnica.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (arstechnica.com)
| wateralien wrote:
| Wouldn't mind if they went bankrupt. I won't support the
| ideologies of their ceo.
| nashashmi wrote:
| The shareholders should mind him being CEO.
| jimbokun wrote:
| Sure but do you examine the ideologies of the CEOs of the
| companies making all the products you buy?
|
| I imagine many of their privately held beliefs are just as
| horrible but they're not dumb enough to say them publicly.
| stonogo wrote:
| Hard to think of other CEOs who took time off from running
| the company to play in DC for a while. I'm sure there are
| some, but none come to mind.
| j_maffe wrote:
| Pretty sure there are plenty but non that have done so so
| brazenly
| tastyface wrote:
| Why financially support an ardent, unabashed white
| nationalist who eagerly funnels money to a party that *he
| himself claims* protects pedophiles?
|
| What other CEOs are this level of pure garbage? I can't think
| of a single one. (And that's before we even bring up the
| people his policies have directly killed:
| https://www.propublica.org/article/kenya-trump-usaid-
| world-f...)
| acdha wrote:
| I'd have agreed with you in 2024 but there's enough of a
| difference in active support to be significant. Not many of
| those CEOs have direct personal involvement killing millions
| of people, for example, but DOGE appears to have managed that
| without really even understanding what they were cutting.
| LeoPanthera wrote:
| There is an enormous difference between holding unpleasant
| views in private and actively, publicly, working to dismantle
| the country and take away the rights of its citizens _and
| celebrating it_.
| kenjackson wrote:
| I didn't plan on examining Elon's ideology. He shoved it in
| my face. If other CEOs want to to be coy with Nazi salutes
| and post the types of things he does on X then let me know.
| I'll happily treat them the same way.
| triceratops wrote:
| > I imagine many of their privately held beliefs are just as
| horrible but they're not dumb enough to say them publicly.
|
| That's correct. And therefore I don't boycott their
| companies.
| vkou wrote:
| Any of them would run me over to make the line go up, but
| some of them are loudly putting their foot on the
| accelerator.
|
| Publicly signalling that you support awful shit is more
| likely to make that world a reality than quiet private
| support.
| evilduck wrote:
| Yes when possible and feasible to know. And it's super easy
| to avoid everything Musk touches. Nothing he helms is without
| easy alternatives.
| jonahx wrote:
| https://youtu.be/N_ympM1TPBw?si=7fnfN3RPZdF0wVv7&t=31
| nkmnz wrote:
| I used to ask the same questions, but then I've realized:
| this line of argument tries to justify non-action on known
| known because there are also known unknowns and maybe even
| unknown unknowns. Now what? Smoke a cigarette because we know
| that unknown carcinogens exist that are not included in
| cigarette smoke?
| hdgvhicv wrote:
| I guess when your CEO has a highly publicised pivot to a position
| that's the antithesis of your customers views it doesn't help.
| What's that saying -- "Go Fash Lose Cash"?
| mrtksn wrote:
| Last time I checked, his actions secured him 30 Billions USD
| now, 1 Trillion USD in the future. Also, He is in AI and
| robotics now.
|
| Anyway, still don't get why Theranos failed to pivot to
| something else when they couldn't do the single drop blood
| thing and failed. Was there something contractual in their
| investment rounds? Was it because they were into healthcare?
| Was it because she was trying to be Steve Jobs instead of Musk?
| It seems to me that Elizabeth Holmes could have promised that
| the test are coming next year and just release repackaged
| Siemens machines with a cloud integration and pretty UI and
| figure out products down the line and keep promising that
| single drop tests are coming next year. Then pivot to AI and
| robotic.
| spwa4 wrote:
| And the AI videos are going the same way as full self
| driving:
|
| 1) looking like Tesla is easily two year, probably more
| behind everyone else
|
| 2) the others are seeing _real_ SOTA performance ... and are
| not planning products because they think it won 't work, or
| at least not yet
|
| I must say ... really reminds me of the Tesla autopilot
| situation.
|
| And I'd add 3) the really impressive robots, ie. the ones
| based on Boston Dynamics, are not based on ML algorithms.
| They are augmented by AI, not running actual AI algorithms in
| the control loop. The founder was an electrical engineering
| professor who moved into a CS direction (you know the sort of
| person who insists not just writing control loops in
| realtime, in assembly, but actually develops custom hardware
| for those algorithms. And I don't mean FPGAs or DSPs, I mean
| actual circuits)
|
| So the entire approach of Tesla (and a lot of other startups)
| could be very wrong, and could very well be 5 theoretical
| breakthroughs removed from being feasible.
| rvz wrote:
| > He is in AI and robotics now.
|
| This is why the market clearly does not care about the news
| about Tesla sales and it was likely priced in.
|
| But again, feel free to zoom out of the Tesla chart.
| bpt3 wrote:
| They are considered radioactive by their primary target audience
| in the US, have been surpassed in various ways outside the US,
| seem to be focused on a few boondoggles internally rather than
| fixing what is broken in their core business, and their CEO has
| been distracted by other ventures.
|
| I expect this decline to continue indefinitely. I also wonder
| when the stock price will reflect the company's past and
| projected results.
| epistasis wrote:
| > I also wonder when the stock price will reflect the company's
| past and projected results.
|
| This is the $1T question. What happens when Tesla finally gets
| valued as a car manufacturer, with side businesses in cheap but
| unreliable solar, and over-priced grid storage?
|
| The self-driving car boondoggle has persisted for the better
| part of a decade, without a come-to-Jesus moment on the stock
| price. The pivot to robotics is clear fraud, yet retail stock
| investors are all to willing to keep the stock price high.
|
| Musk has to lose a lot more reputation with the public before
| Tesla stock starts being valued based on the reality of Tesla.
| lukan wrote:
| The optimus will save the day!
|
| At least that seems the current story. And I mean if it lives
| up to it's promises, it might. I surely would have a need for
| a robot servant. But I won't preorder as I a) don't trust it
| will work as promised b) if it actually works out, I still
| don't trust Elon enough to put a robot in my home that he
| controls.
| epistasis wrote:
| Assuming for a second Optimus is not complete vaporware,
| and that people will trust Musk with humanoid robots in
| their home after he said "I'm not building a robot army
| unless I have control"....
|
| Optimus will face the Roomba problem. Cheaper robots from
| competitors will destroy any profit margins, and there's
| zero moat.
|
| And the problem with shorting Tesla has been apparent for
| years: the market can stay irrational longer than you can
| stay solvent.
| metalliqaz wrote:
| It's amazing to me that Tesla shareholders are not calling
| for Elon's head.
|
| The stock lives purely on hype, and with the EV market
| going down the tubes, Optimus (really AI) is the new hype
| story. Except that Elon is actively stealing Tesla's data
| for his own company (xAI). He just helps himself to Tesla's
| GPUs, technology, and data. Tesla didn't bid out their
| data. They didn't _sell_ it. Elon plundered it into a
| company in which he owns a larger share.
|
| I'd never buy that stock. I'd short it in a heartbeat if I
| had any hope of remaining solvent longer than the market
| remains irrational.
| epistasis wrote:
| The stockholders are the ones that believe the Musk hype.
| So that's why Tesla is a time bomb: they can't get
| competent leadership without destroying the stock price,
| and they can't meet their promises without getting
| competent leadership.
| vkou wrote:
| Elon's the only reason the company is worth what it is.
| If a meteor landed on him tomorrow, their stock would
| crater.
|
| Not because his presence makes it a better business, but
| it does make it a better _stock_.
| observationist wrote:
| It'd have to be locally controlled, or securely siloed in a
| cloud, with auditable and accountable interactions. Any
| sort of home robot will have that challenge; I wouldn't
| trust any company or person with that sort of access. When
| even the highest security clearance and most secure
| facilities and job titles in the world frequently involve
| people randomly scanning around, trolling through mass
| surveillance, stalking exes or arbitrary targets, rifling
| through people's private photos and messages, there's no
| way a mid-tier tech company job is going to be the one
| where they suddenly behave ethically and respect security.
|
| That said, robots in factories are a no-brainer, you gain a
| massive margin over human operated manufacturing, and the
| technology is effectively at an alpha level of rollout,
| with more or less full capability of doing any particular
| thing any human can do, with near perfect repeatability and
| millisecond granular control, and the effective cost at
| scale is pennies per year over whatever salary you'd have
| to pay a human. For municipal jobs, you can get multiple
| robots to do things like street cleaning, building
| maintenance, cleaning, facilities maintenance, guard
| patrols, and so forth. There are all sorts of large scale
| deployments that are much more compatible with low-trust ,
| low-privacy issues than home robot butlers, and those
| widely deployed factory and janitor bots will help finance
| the robo-butlers.
|
| Imagine robot street repair crews that operate on a 24/7
| basis, with self driving cars that go around town searching
| out potholes and other safety issues for the robots to fix.
| Neighborhood robots that shovel snow or clean out water
| drains, or trot out with safety cones if a hazard appears.
| That's millions and millions of dollars in savings year
| over year compared the cost of paying humans, and it gets
| rid of the perverse incentives that lead to things like
| sub-standard materials being used, so that you have to
| replace materials every year in order to keep the union
| teams employed doing overpriced roadwork.
|
| Robot contractors that learn from Amish techniques to build
| a well-made house inside 48 hours, or Earth Day citywide
| robot blitzes where the robots clean everything, and so on.
| The economics of things that people won't do, or aren't
| worth paying to do, change radically when it's a mindless
| robot's time being allocated.
|
| Even if it's not Optimus, the robots are basically here,
| the next decade is gonna be full of fun politics and
| figuring out how to cope with radical change.
| lukan wrote:
| "It'd have to be locally controlled, or securely siloed
| in a cloud, with auditable and accountable interactions.
| Any sort of home robot will have that challenge; I
| wouldn't trust any company or person with that sort of
| access. "
|
| I agree, but we might be in a minority here. Otherwise
| roombas etc. would not have had their success. Children
| toys with microphone and always on connection to the
| company. Cameras as part of a big network. Cars that can
| be remote controlled any time, ..
| tzs wrote:
| > This is the $1T question. What happens when Tesla finally
| gets valued as a car manufacturer, with side businesses in
| cheap but unreliable solar, and over-priced grid storage?
|
| They are the 14th largest car maker in the world by annual
| units sold, and almost in the top 10 by annual revenue from
| cars.
|
| Surely that is good enough to maintain a market cap that is
| 50% higher than the combined market caps of the top 10
| (Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai-Kia, Renault-Nissan, General
| Motors, Stellantis, Honda, Ford, BYD, and Suzuki)?
| epistasis wrote:
| Haha, good point.
|
| But don't forget that they have truly unique skills as a
| company that none of those other companies can pull off:
| they have shrinking sales even when focusing on the _only_
| segment of cars that 's growing: EVs.
|
| That shows unique grit.
| bpt3 wrote:
| It appears to have become a meme stock.
|
| I would love to short it but have avoided doing so because I
| didn't feel like I could outlast the fanatics, which seems to
| have been a wise decision in hindsight.
| runeblaze wrote:
| I think radioactive is a strong word here... I have talked to a
| lot of people in tech
| lol768 wrote:
| I don't. YouGov's data suggests 77% of the UK populace has a
| negative view of the brand. Musk has destroyed its
| credibility.
| Analemma_ wrote:
| Obviously we're just dueling anecdotes here, but FWIW, I'm a
| US tech worker who bought a Tesla in 2022 and certainly never
| will again. I have four friends with Teslas in tech and all
| of them say the same thing: never again. Replacement cycles
| for cars are so long that this will take a while to fully
| show up in the data, but I don't see growth anywhere in their
| future, especially when BYD is eating their lunch in
| seemingly every non-US market.
| bpt3 wrote:
| Tech workers weren't their core market, upper-middle to upper
| class liberals in major metro areas were.
|
| Sales to that demographic are approximately zero and will
| remain there until every shred of Elon is removed from the
| company's fabric.
| agentifysh wrote:
| if Tesla is still banking on EV it has no future, already other
| manufacturers are eating their lunch.
| kwanbix wrote:
| What do you suggest they do instead?
| eithed wrote:
| Invest in batteries
|
| Edit: I mean focus solely on. It's a boring technology prone
| to disruption, used everywhere
| QuantumSeed wrote:
| Preferably, solid state
| nomel wrote:
| They're seem to be, with their factories and utility-scale
| systems: https://www.tesla.com/megapack
| jqpabc123 wrote:
| Tesla has nothing obvious here to add to the marketplace
| --- most of their battery tech has typically been out
| sourced.
|
| Lots of other companies with far more experience and
| expertice is battery research, development and
| manufacturing.
| bdcravens wrote:
| Outside of the US, EVs are doing well. They actually sell (and
| produce) more cars in China than the US.
| paxys wrote:
| USA has 340 million people. "Outside the US" has ~8 billion.
| So Tesla selling more cars outside the US isn't by itself a
| crazy achievement. China was supposed to be Tesla's next big
| market after US and Europe but sales there have already
| cooled off due to competition from domestic manufacturers.
| Tesla used to be #1 in the Chinese EV market when it launched
| and has now fallen outside the top 5.
| LightBug1 wrote:
| Yep, the game has changed.
|
| I won't buy a Tesla.
|
| And - these days - I don't need to.
| ChrisArchitect wrote:
| [dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46465041
| amykhar wrote:
| I'm frankly disappointed that number isn't much higher.
| jeffrallen wrote:
| 1. The products are barely competitive, and the design is dated.
|
| 2. The Cybertruck is no F-150.
|
| 3. The CEO built the brand on a cult of personality, and then
| went fascist. It's a free country, be an asshole if you want, and
| pay the price personally, whatever. But don't link your asshole
| personality to the brand that you and thousands of your employees
| depend on to make sales.
|
| It's just not difficult to understand at all.
| nomel wrote:
| > 2. The Cybertruck is no F-150.
|
| The electric F-150 is also no F-150, and was cancelled [1].
| Electric just doesn't work for towing yet, with the range and
| charging compromise.
|
| [1] https://www.npr.org/2025/12/15/nx-s1-5645147/ford-
| discontinu...
| amelius wrote:
| The reality is that there's little technological novelty in
| EVs, except for maybe the battery. Everybody can build EVs.
|
| Of course you can add a lot of functionality based on
| computers, but most people just want to go from A to B, and the
| economics of adding unnecessary features doesn't play out.
| Animats wrote:
| Ouch.
|
| Tesla should have had a new car model by now. Something
| comparable to BYD's midrange cars. Or a useful delivery van. Or a
| new roadster. Or something.
|
| For some reason, most of the Cybertrucks seem to have
| disappeared. A year ago, they were common on Silicon Valley
| roads. Now I see more driverless Waymos mid-peninsula than
| Cybertrucks. It's been raining lately; maybe people don't want to
| take them out.
|
| As for the value being in self-driving, there's no moat there.
| Ford and Mercedes have SAE level 3 systems about as good as
| Tesla's. Several Chinese auto companies have systems. Toyota is
| partnering with Waymo. Level 3 is just another car option.
|
| It's 2026. Where are the Musk-promised Robotaxis? Do they have
| anything, anywhere, in revenue service with no driver in it? In
| this area, there is a moat, and Waymo is behind it.
|
| There are at least eighteen companies with demo humanoid robots
| good enough to have Youtube videos. Again, Tesla has no moat. As
| far as I know, there are zero autonomous humanoid robots
| generating revenue. Autonomous human robots are going to be a
| thing, but probably about 5-10 years out.
|
| And the door problem. There was no US regulation prohibiting a
| car door that can't be opened in an emergency because nobody was
| ever dumb enough to make one. Regulations are written in blood.
|
| Consumer Reports: "On a newer Tesla Model Y, remove the mat from
| the bottom of the rear door pocket, press the red tab to remove
| an access door that reveals a mechanical release cable, and pull
| the cable."
|
| Musk is getting paid how much for this?
| evilduck wrote:
| > maybe people don't want to take them out.
|
| Maybe people no longer want to be seen in one.
|
| Musk's politics and the fact that Cybertrucks didn't live up to
| any of its hype and turned into a heap of recalls didn't turn
| out to be the flex people thought it would be.
| recursive wrote:
| I see a few cybertrucks per week. FWIW.
| nashashmi wrote:
| Can we all agree that another CEO would be a better leader than
| Elon? There would be more stable and profitable innovations?
| kimos wrote:
| Without him the stock would crash. Most of its value is the
| cult of personality. (Which, to be clear, is bad)
| paxys wrote:
| Another CEO would be better for the company but disastrous for
| the company's stock price. Guess which one investors want to
| prioritize?
| SonOfKyuss wrote:
| If you're a Tesla shareholder, there is no better leader than
| Elon. For of all his many faults, I can't think of anyone else
| who could keep that stock price pumped at a level so far far
| detached from reality for so long.
| Kristopher1337 wrote:
| Ive owned a Tesla since 2018 and honestly besides my gripes with
| body damage repairs (specifically dealing with insurance) from 3
| separate instances of people hitting me it's been a great car. I
| definitely wouldn't consider any future car that isn't an EV but
| I also wouldn't consider a Tesla at this point. My concern is
| that other car manufacturers would continue to signal that EVs
| have lost interest from buyers if Tesla went under and I believe
| that is far from the truth. EVs are very much a luxury item. The
| fact I haven't had to inconvenience myself even once in seven
| years going to gas station has been amazing. Electricity pricing
| is both stable and cheap where I live and so I don't have to even
| care about fluctuations in gas pricing. I don't have to waste my
| time getting oil changes either. Owning a traditional car is just
| a bunch of wasted time.
|
| I have more than a few complaints of current EVs manufacturers
| outside of Tesla. Every manufacturer has been very slow to adopt
| NACS. I wouldn't consider a new car without that it and I will
| absolutely not accept an adapter solution. I don't trust legacy
| car manufacturers even manufactures like Mercedes that they will
| keep the car updated and instead use that as a way to push me to
| purchase a new car. One of the reasons that pushed me to Tesla
| back in 2018 was they kept their cars updated and provided new
| features over time. They also had a track record of not changing
| the looks of their cars that often which I very much prefer. An
| EV can last significantly longer than ICE vehicles and so you
| need the ability to not only support the cars for longer through
| software but also by doing new computer hardware drop in
| replacements. I want the ability to extend the life of my car not
| replace it. I have absolutely zero interest in lease deals which
| every manufacture and dealer push with EVs because I don't drive
| very far in the city so I keep cars for a long time with low
| miles. I fundamentally HATE the push from buyers who desire large
| batteries for range when they don't even use it which has
| resulted in many of the smaller cars to not be sold here in the
| US. This is also preventing desired cars from even being made. If
| Ford would have made the Maverick an EV instead of wasting their
| time on the F-150 Lightning it would have significantly cost them
| less to develop and their issue would have been keeping them in
| stock.
|
| The EV market is absolutely frustrating. Tesla brought these
| vehicles mainstream and for the most part outside the Cybertruck
| they have decent products where they have shown willingness to
| support longterm. Everything else made them undesirable.
| flyinglizard wrote:
| I oil change once a year. I fill in gas once every like 7-10
| days, half the time someone pumps it for me. It takes five
| minutes, maybe. I don't need to fuss about range, chargers or
| connect my car as it were a phone when I'm home every day. I
| find EVs an inconvenience. There are many reasons why choose an
| EV, and I just might, but these are not.
| b3ing wrote:
| How many miles does your car/oil filter support
| flyinglizard wrote:
| Service interval for the car is 15,000km. Some
| manufacturers even do 30,000km, synthetic oils support that
| but I prefer to just put it in once a year, at about 15k.
| mjamesaustin wrote:
| Would you prefer if your phone required a trip to a dedicated
| refilling station once a week, even if it only took 5
| minutes?
|
| Because that's the kind of logic you're implying about your
| car - that it's more convenient driving somewhere once a week
| rather than just plugging it in at night before bed.
| flyinglizard wrote:
| I'm not driving somewhere special though. I have plenty of
| gas stations around. I don't think this is outside the
| norm, most communities have gas stations along their main
| roads.
|
| Now if you reframed the question and said "visit once a
| week to charge your phone but you wouldn't have to think of
| the battery or charger rest of the time".. doesn't seem
| half bad.
| kimos wrote:
| This is well said.
|
| Tesla, for all their problems, is the only manufacturer you can
| count on prioritizing and long term updating their EVs.
| iLoveOncall wrote:
| Very objective comment surely, comming from an account that has
| only 2 comments ever on HN, both praising their Tesla.
| Definitely not a bot.
| epistasis wrote:
| > I also wouldn't consider a Tesla at this point
|
| How does the above fit into your "bot" hypothesis?
| Kristopher1337 wrote:
| Im not a bot. I also don't believe I was praising Tesla. I
| won't buy another one even if I haven't had any issues with
| the one I currently have. My Model 3 has honestly been a
| great car for me. If it was any other manufacturer I would
| have absolutely bought another one. I will only consider an
| EV but I won't buy another Tesla. It's pretty unfortunate
| TBH.
| Maxatar wrote:
| Huh? This guy just declared he'll never buy another Tesla
| again. How is that giving it praise?
| evil-olive wrote:
| > for the most part outside the Cybertruck they have decent
| products
|
| your definition of "decent products" is different from mine.
|
| 15 People Have Died in Crashes Where Tesla Doors Wouldn't Open
| [0, 1]
|
| 0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-12-22/tesla-
| doo...
|
| 1: https://archive.is/VpB1H
| paxys wrote:
| Reminder that Tesla is still worth more than ~every other auto
| manufacturer in the world _combined_. It is unbelievable just how
| irrational the market is when dealing with this particular stock.
| raddan wrote:
| Citation required.
| sidibe wrote:
| This has been true until recently w/BYD growth. It's
| definitely more than the top legacy ones combined, including
| those selling many times more cars, and unlike most of them
| it's shrinking
| paxys wrote:
| BYD's market cap is $130B USD. That's 10% of Tesla, despite
| selling more cars and having a higher revenue.
| diogenescynic wrote:
| Resale values are trash, motion sickness is terrible, electrical
| rates are going up, and it's a pain in the ass to travel long
| distance and wait to recharge constantly. I think EVs have hit
| that saturation point where everyone who wanted one has bought
| one and now some people are going back to other options. Also
| Elon hasn't exactly remained neutral so that probably makes it
| even harder since it seems like there is significant overlap
| between Tesla's potential customer base and his political
| opposition.
| Havoc wrote:
| Tesla seems 100% fucked to me.
|
| They clearly can't compete against BYD and a company that relies
| on sanctions to survive doesn't seem like it is long for this
| world never mind the crazy multiples people are willing to pay
| for Tesla
| ggm wrote:
| I do not understand the P/E at all. It feels to me like a
| screaming red flag. If I'd been in front of this, holding long, I
| would be walking to other investment now and only looking to buy
| when the inevitable corrections come. But I don't hold directly
| and nobody I know who does feels the way i do about the P/E so..
| I just don't understand.
|
| Can you think of any non tech business where a P/E like this was
| not a signal of corporate diseased thinking?
| beanjuiceII wrote:
| you never realize how crazy people on HN are until you watch them
| get triggered about elon
| esseph wrote:
| [delayed]
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