[HN Gopher] 2025 Letter
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       2025 Letter
        
       Author : Amorymeltzer
       Score  : 217 points
       Date   : 2026-01-01 14:32 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (danwang.co)
 (TXT) w3m dump (danwang.co)
        
       | kaonwarb wrote:
       | I recommend Dan's book (https://danwang.co/breakneck/) to those
       | wanting to better understand China - and the United States.
        
         | libraryofbabel wrote:
         | One of the best books I read this year. I think a lot of HN
         | readers will like it. A really balanced take on China that also
         | digs deep into the perennial question of "why can't we build
         | big infrastructure projects in the US?" that comes up here
         | quite often.
        
           | veritascap wrote:
           | We used to build those infrastructure projects.
        
             | libraryofbabel wrote:
             | Well of course, and the book digs a little into the history
             | as well, and what changed around the 1960s/70s. There is a
             | long section on Robert Moses, for example. He draws a lot
             | of parallels between modern China and the US in the 19th
             | and early 20th centuries - totally different political
             | systems, but similar "breakneck" ability to build.
        
         | decimalenough wrote:
         | +1, it's a great read.
         | 
         | It also defies easy summaries, but my biggest takeaways were
         | that 1) the CCP _really_ doesn 't care about the costs any of
         | its policies (one-child, zero COVID, etc) impose on its
         | citizenry, and 2) that the CCP is actively preparing China for
         | a world where it's entirely cut off from the West, because it
         | realizes that's the price to pay for invading Taiwan.
        
       | url00 wrote:
       | As often the case with Dan's letters, a well balanced take on
       | many issues. I particularly appreciated the thoughts on AI and
       | (what I read) the undertone of infrastructure being the real
       | differentiator between the US effort and China. We'll see how it
       | plays out this year. "May you live in exciting times" etc.
        
       | pityJuke wrote:
       | As someone unfamiliar with the author, I had a deep amount of
       | cynicism for the length of this piece... but damn, it's good, top
       | to bottom.
        
         | nozzlegear wrote:
         | I agree. At first I briefly skimmed it and thought it was going
         | to be a puff piece on China's AI efforts (unfair of me), but a
         | couple paragraphs caught me and I read the whole thing. I'm
         | glad I did.
        
       | 152334H wrote:
       | > Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for
       | waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without
       | preparing for it.
       | 
       | great line
        
         | apples_oranges wrote:
         | It's not clear what the US plan even is. Move all manufacturing
         | back home and compete with China ASAP?
        
           | anon7000 wrote:
           | Even if it's a goal, it's not a plan. The article talks about
           | it, but Biden's push for manufacturing wasn't very
           | aggressive, and Trump has basically stopped it. We've seen a
           | loss in manufacturing jobs from tariffs and Trump idiotically
           | deported Korean engineers working in local battery production
           | plants. Simply protecting our existing companies (which are
           | not very efficient, see shipbuilders) is not even close to
           | enough to competing
        
           | jaapz wrote:
           | With trump at the helm, do you think there is much of a plan?
        
           | dfxm12 wrote:
           | The US plan is to enrich oligarchs who are friendly with
           | Trump and to enact white nationalist policies.
           | 
           | Anything beyond that is just like a kid playing an arcade
           | game without putting any quarters in.
        
           | lawn wrote:
           | Plan?
           | 
           | They don't even have a concept of a plan.
        
           | glitchc wrote:
           | The US doesn't have a plan, it has a framework. The framework
           | allows it to be nimble in a way that centralized economies
           | (like China) can never match. My money's on the US out-
           | competing everyone else in the long run.
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | I can't tell if this is sarcasm or if you are serious. The
             | USA's framework is to just wish for things to happen and
             | then be surprised when those things don't happen. There is
             | basically no executing plan beyond grifting money to a few
             | corporations because they supported the president during
             | the election.
        
               | shimman wrote:
               | Seriously, and we have one of the most centrally planned
               | economies in existence, it's just controlled by the
               | elites rather than through democratic norms as it was
               | during the new deal coalition.
        
           | loudmax wrote:
           | The "US plan," is driven by the executive office. That is to
           | say, the by the US president.
           | 
           | Insofar as there is any plan, the current officeholder's
           | priorities are to project the appearance of personal power on
           | television. If you're wondering what's going on
           | strategically, don't go thinking that there's some grand
           | plan, or even an intention to benefit the United States in
           | the long term. There are some people in the cabinet who are
           | thinking long term, but that's not universal, and that's not
           | what they're selected for. Every action that is taken is to
           | satisfy the president's narcissism and ego in the present
           | moment. You have to understand the "US plan" in this light
           | for anything coming out of the executive office to make
           | sense.
        
         | slfreference wrote:
         | I don't care who the next hegemon will be; US or China. But
         | please pray, can these people tell what their next strategy is
         | for the rest of the world after the Cold War ends. Will the
         | next regime advance sciences further after whichever side wins
         | the Cold War? Can't that be done without the war? US has been
         | hegemon since last 5 or so decades; has it worked out best even
         | ONLY for the Americans if not for the rest of the world. I will
         | ask a very obvious question taught as a intuition pump by
         | Daniel Dennett, "Then What? Then What? Then What?". Do these
         | blob forces have post-Cold War steps figured out for the best
         | of humanity, if not for whole of humanity but a national
         | subset.
         | 
         | Here is a fun representation I have in my mind:
         | 
         | Galactic Emperor
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfQbm8Wk2vU
        
           | bigyabai wrote:
           | I don't know if it's _that_ hard to figure out, at least in
           | the short-term. China 's #1 goal should be to keep the value
           | of their currency stable and push hard on the neoliberal
           | expansionist path. If the United States' financialized
           | economy starts to sag, this is China's opportunity to provide
           | discount stability to the nations that China needs as allies.
        
         | DustinEchoes wrote:
         | Too bad it's not true. China has wanted this for a long long
         | time.
        
       | bix6 wrote:
       | Dam Wang, good read!
        
       | jstummbillig wrote:
       | Wait, how funny is this guy. That's an easy top 10 funny person
       | out of nowhere in my life.
        
       | pr337h4m wrote:
       | > Which of the tech titans are funny? In public, they tend to
       | speak in one of two registers. The first is the blandly corporate
       | tone we've come to expect when we see them dragged before
       | Congressional hearings or fireside chats. The second leans
       | philosophical, as they compose their features into the sort of
       | reverie appropriate for issuing apocalyptic prophecies on AI.
       | 
       | This is just not accurate though? For example, this post from a
       | tech titan might not necessarily be that funny but it's neither
       | blandly corporate nor philosophical:
       | https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2006548935372902751
        
         | thundergolfer wrote:
         | 1. Elon is not funny. He's deeply unfunny. 2. "Tend to" is the
         | key bit you're missing. It "tends to" be true that titans speak
         | in those registers, even if it is true that Elon, a titan, a
         | does not.
        
       | coderatlarge wrote:
       | from the piece:
       | 
       | " the median age of the latest Y Combinator cohort is only 24,
       | down from 30 just three years ago "
       | 
       | does yc publish stats to validate?
        
         | et1337 wrote:
         | Didn't we just have a front page article about the average
         | founder age increasing well beyond 30 this year? Is it a non-
         | normal distribution or what?
        
           | InitialLastName wrote:
           | Lots of explanations with power here:
           | 
           | - There's a hard edge to the distribution that isn't far from
           | 24 (I'd expect relatively few sub-18-year-old YC founders,
           | but more 31+-year-olds)
           | 
           | - Older founders (with more experience, larger networks and
           | less life flexibility) aren't a good fit for incubators.
        
           | bix6 wrote:
           | Tunguz shows early 40s as the median
           | 
           | https://tomtunguz.com/founder-age-median-trend/
           | 
           | YC trends younger given what they're looking for
        
         | bix6 wrote:
         | Quoted as 24 vs 30 in 2022 from one of the partners here:
         | https://www.businessinsider.com/yc-founders-younger-under-mo...
        
       | strange_quark wrote:
       | > I believe that Silicon Valley possesses plenty of virtues. To
       | start, it is the most meritocratic part of America.
       | 
       | Oh come on, this is so untrue. Silicon Valley loves credentialism
       | and networking, probably more than anywhere else. Except the
       | credentials are the companies you've worked for or whether you
       | know some founder or VC, instead of what school you went to or
       | which degrees you have.
       | 
       | I went to a smaller college that the big tech firms didn't really
       | recruit from. I spent the first ~5 years of my career working for
       | a couple smaller companies without much SV presence. Somehow I
       | lucked into landing a role at a big company that almost everyone
       | has definitely heard of. I didn't find my coworkers to
       | necessarily be any smarter or harder working than the people I
       | worked with previously. But when I decided it was time to move
       | on, companies that never gave me the time of day before were
       | responding to my cold applies or even reaching out to _me_ to beg
       | me to interview.
       | 
       | And don't get me started on the senior leadership and execs I've
       | seen absolutely run an entire business units into the ground and
       | lose millions of dollars and cost people their jobs, only to
       | "part ways" with the company, then immediately turn around and
       | raise millions of dollars from the same guys whose money they
       | just lost.
        
         | fastball wrote:
         | Judging you based on the work you've done seems... very
         | meritocratic to me?
        
           | flumpcakes wrote:
           | I think the OP was making the point that it isn't
           | meritocratic, at least that is how it read to me: they
           | thought people where not meaningfully different in skill
           | level (the people at the exclusive company being comparable
           | to everywhere else) and that where you worked was the new way
           | to find the 'in' people, rather than what university you
           | graduated from (saying they had job offers based purely on
           | getting the job at the exclusive company).
           | 
           | You could argue that getting a job at X or Y company by
           | itself conveys some level of skill - but if we are honest,
           | that is just version of saying you went to Harvard.
           | 
           | There's lots of cliques everywhere in life, and various ways
           | to show status, SV is definitely not immune to that.
        
             | fastball wrote:
             | Yes, that is what OP is saying, I'm just not very
             | convinced. Primarily because his sample size is quite small
             | - he says the people in his smaller, non-SV jobs were just
             | as competent as those in the SV company, but that could
             | mean a number of things that are not "SV isn't
             | meritocratic". For example, it could just be that his
             | previous colleagues were more competent than the actual
             | national/global average, which seems probable.
        
         | usui wrote:
         | I guess I'll ask since you strongly disagree and ignoring the
         | fact this is very reductionist: In your opinion, what is the
         | most meritocratic part of America?
        
           | fhsm wrote:
           | Isn't the obvious answer that many would refute the premise
           | of meaningful regional variation? In which case the claim
           | isn't that somewhere else is that place but rather than all
           | places are substantially equivalent on this difficult to
           | measure concept (or difference is unknown).
        
         | 152334H wrote:
         | note that the first chunk of the piece spends time to analogize
         | SV to the CCP, in terms of its willingness to take attacks (of
         | humor).
         | 
         | So, for your quote, a skeptical interpretation of the text may
         | assert the author was merely praising SV in the same fashion
         | one might appraise the party.
        
       | ossa-ma wrote:
       | The beginning perfectly embodies the culture in Silicon Valley
       | and touches on a crucial part that I notice when I visit: the
       | complete lack of self expression or as I would put it ZERO drip.
       | 
       | Remove the tech, what does SF contribute to the world wrt
       | culture? Especially when compared to other metropolitan cities:
       | NY, London, LA, Tokyo.
        
         | dpark wrote:
         | Maybe I'm missing some nuance but are you just saying that
         | folks in Silicon Valley aren't cool?
        
           | mjmsmith wrote:
           | The only problem with Silicon Valley is they just have no
           | taste.
        
             | dpark wrote:
             | I think most people in general have no taste. But taste is
             | also so subjective that it's hard to meaningfully discuss.
             | Everyone probably thinks they have great taste.
             | 
             | Part of the Silicon Valley ethos (and techie ethos in
             | general) is the rejection of fashion. Comfort over style.
             | Casual over classy.
             | 
             | Even the "stealth wealth" thing that trended for a while
             | seemed to be an expression of this. Casual wear, but really
             | expensive.
        
       | teiferer wrote:
       | > One way that Silicon Valley and the Communist Party resemble
       | each other is that both are serious, self-serious, and indeed,
       | completely humorless.
       | 
       | There is a commedy show literally called Silicon Valley making
       | fun of what's going on in the valley and everybody I know in tech
       | loves it and appreciates the humor.
        
         | otterley wrote:
         | Right, but it's written and produced in Hollywood, not in
         | Silicon Valley. The Valley, so the argument goes, could not
         | produce "Silicon Valley" the show. It provides the topic to be
         | skewered, but it can't skewer itself.
        
         | skeeter2020 wrote:
         | More accurate:
         | 
         | There WAS a comedy called Silicon Valley that wrapped more than
         | 5 years ago ABOUT the valley made in Hollywood by a guy with a
         | science background who grew up in NEW MEXICO and SAN DIEGO,
         | featuring ACTORs, none of them actual techies from the bay
         | area.
        
       | websiteapi wrote:
       | USA is cooked sadly, that being said being Britain 2.0 ain't too
       | bad. pretty much all the YC companies in the past few cohorts
       | just are desperately rent seeking, sad but true - go look urself
        
       | scubbo wrote:
       | A fascinating and eye-opening read.
       | 
       | One of my intentions for this coming year is to critically
       | examine and (if appropriate) alter or dispel some preconceptions
       | I have. To that end, I'm curious about this part:
       | 
       | > You don't have to convince the elites or the populace that
       | growth is good or that entrepreneurs could be celebrated.
       | Meanwhile in Europe, perhaps 15 percent of the electorate
       | actively believes in degrowth. I feel it's impossible to convince
       | Europeans to act in their self interest.
       | 
       | Can someone elaborate on how growth is aligned with the general
       | interest? To my mind, although growth could _theoretically_ lead
       | to a "lifting all boats" improvement across the board, in
       | practice it inevitably leads to greater concentration of wealth
       | for the elite while the populace deals with negative
       | externalities like pollution, congestion, and advertizing.
       | Degrowth, on the other hand, would directly reduce those
       | externalities; and, if imposed via progressive taxation, would
       | have further societal benefits via funded programs.
       | 
       | I'd very much like to hear the counter-argument. It would be
       | pleasant and convenient to believe that growth and industry are
       | Good, Actually, so that I needn't feel guilty for contributing to
       | them or for furthering my own position - but (sadly!) I can't
       | just make myself believe something without justification.
        
         | brokencode wrote:
         | Wealth inevitably concentrates in the hands of the elite no
         | matter the economic conditions. There are plenty of failed
         | states where all the wealth ended up in the hands of warlords
         | and dictators.
         | 
         | It's something that regularly has to be dealt with in societies
         | separately from the economic situation.
        
           | typeofhuman wrote:
           | Exactly _how_ should society deal with it, and exactly _when_
           | should society deal with it?
        
             | brokencode wrote:
             | Opinions vary.
             | 
             | There are those who think massive concentration of wealth
             | is not a problem at all and is just a product of healthy
             | capitalism. Tax is theft, and individual property rights
             | are above all else.
             | 
             | There are others who want some kind of communist
             | revolution, where the entire structure of society and
             | property ownership is changed. The workers should benefit
             | from their work as much as the managers.
             | 
             | Personally, I feel like there's a middle ground to hit. We
             | should be able to make changes to our current system in the
             | US without needing anything too radical.
             | 
             | We have some good examples from the last century, such as
             | trust busting, the New Deal, and the Great Society. These
             | programs made major improvements without changing the
             | country's fundamental economic system or growth trajectory.
        
               | macintux wrote:
               | > trust busting, the New Deal, and the Great Society.
               | 
               | I don't know what sea change it would take for today's
               | GOP to even tepidly support any of these.
        
         | crubier wrote:
         | > Can someone elaborate on how growth is aligned with the
         | general interest?
         | 
         | Empirically, the past 200 years have seen high growth globally,
         | and human well being has improved massively as a result. Life
         | expectancy has skyrocketed, infant death, hunger have gone down
         | to near zero, literacy has gone up, work is much more
         | comfortable, interesting and rewarding, etc. But at a more
         | fundamental level, our material quality of life is that of
         | literal kings. The 1st decile poorest people in the US or
         | Europe have much better living conditions than a king of 500
         | years ago. We are so lucky to benefit from this, yet we
         | completely forgot that fact. You complain about congestion and
         | advertizing, but with degrowth you would complain about hunger
         | and dying from cold during winter.
        
           | MontyCarloHall wrote:
           | >But at a more fundamental level, our material quality of
           | life is that of literal kings.
           | 
           | This cannot be overstated. To wit, a Honda Accord (or
           | equivalent mid-range car of today) is objectively superior to
           | a Rolls Royce from the 90s in terms of amenities, engine
           | power/efficiency, quietness, build quality, safety, etc. The
           | same is true for quality-of-life improvements across a vast
           | swath of consumer goods, and therefore consumer lifestyles.
           | 
           | Without growth, it's unlikely we'd see those improvements
           | manifest. Carefully consider the lifestyle of someone living
           | several decades ago. Would you honestly want to live such a
           | lifestyle yourself? That's where degrowth likely leads. As
           | the article says, "I feel it's impossible to convince
           | Europeans to act in their self interest. You can't even
           | convince them to adopt air conditioning in the summer."
        
             | allturtles wrote:
             | > Carefully consider the lifestyle of someone living
             | several decades ago. Would you honestly want to live such a
             | lifestyle yourself?
             | 
             | Sure, I lived it, and it was very pleasant at the time and
             | in many ways better than now in retrospect. e.g. always-on
             | access to infinite content engines like YouTube, TikTok, X,
             | Facebook, etc. is probably a net negative, both for
             | individuals and society. I wouldn't want to go back a
             | century or more and give up air conditioning, dishwashers,
             | washing machines, air travel, electric lights. But a few
             | decades, sure, in a heartbeat.
        
         | PedroBatista wrote:
         | For all the insightful takes about everything under the Sun,
         | Dan's cynicism and skewed view towards "Europe" are shown in
         | this letter.
         | 
         | It's not that all his takes are wrong, it's the exaggeration,
         | the doom and gloom and a somewhat dismissal or some unsolved
         | personal issues he has with "Europeans".
         | 
         | The irony is not lost that Dan acts as smug and dismissal as he
         | accuses Europeans to be.
         | 
         | Regarding the whole "Degrowth" thing: yes Europe has those and
         | they found their gold in Governmental entities and they
         | entertain the rich. But.. that's exactly what happens in the US
         | too and Dan as knowledge as he is should know this was mostly
         | an American academia export, he just needs to talk with some
         | people in the very same colleges he regularly set foot into.
         | 
         | Also, he should take a hint when he says historically liberal
         | societies have fared much better than autocratic ones even if
         | those are very focused and appear to make progress very
         | quickly. Having a few mega-bilionaires directing what the
         | populace do or not do might not be a smart move as it sounds.
         | We'll see when the AI musical chairs stops.
         | 
         | Btw, Europe has been dead and on the brink of destruction for a
         | few centuries by now. And according to experts the EU is about
         | to collapse 3 or 4 times a year - minimum.
        
         | elp62 wrote:
         | In the vibrant capitalist society envisioned by Joseph
         | Schumpeter, all boats are lifted because better businesses
         | replace incumbents, both improving products for the larger
         | society and continually redistributing wealth. In my view,
         | since 2008 my country (the US) has distanced itself from this
         | policy, instead focusing on protecting incumbents for fear of
         | loss of employment. The unpopular policy of bailouts pursued in
         | 2008-2009 and then again during the pandemic has led to a
         | stagnant, top-heavy economy with most of the disadvantages of
         | capitalism and less and less of the upside.
         | 
         | I don't think degrowth is necessary to solve this problem,
         | although I'm sure it has its merits. But I think growth can
         | still occur without the trend toward oligarchic or feudal
         | society, and in fact a society with a vibrant economy would
         | have more growth than we do today.
        
         | constantcrying wrote:
         | Believing in growth just means believing that the future will
         | be better than the past.
         | 
         | And believing this, is the single thing keeping the entire
         | world running.
         | 
         | Germany is currently ruining itself because its stagnating
         | economy means that it can not keep up with the rising costs for
         | its pension system and has to increasingly raise more funds
         | from a smaller, population which is seeing little productivity
         | gains.
         | 
         | >Degrowth, on the other hand, would directly reduce those
         | externalities; and, if imposed via progressive taxation, would
         | have further societal benefits via funded programs.
         | 
         | Do you think that Germany will have social benefits _at all_ ,
         | when the auto industry collapses. Where is the money coming
         | from?
         | 
         | Economic growth has enabled mass literacy. It has created
         | industrial agriculture, which eliminated hunger for economic
         | reasons in all countries which practice it. Degrowth means
         | turning our back on the single process which caused the
         | greatest increase in human quality of life.
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | This is such a long letter it would take me probably 3 months to
       | write it. I would have to end my year by September and spend the
       | rest of the year writing the letter.
        
       | nullorempty wrote:
       | >Lack of action due to the expectation of long timelines is one
       | of the sins of the lawyerly society.
       | 
       | >But American problems seem more fixable to me than Chinese
       | problems.
       | 
       | China has stayed on trajectory of improving life of its society
       | for a long time. USA has been in decline all that time and decent
       | accelerated after Cold War with Russia ended.
       | 
       | All of China's growth comes from its internal resource. Growth in
       | the USA had been driven by exploiting other countries.
       | 
       | >I made clear in my book that I am drawn to pluralism as well as
       | a broader conception of human flourishing than one that could be
       | delivered by the Communist Party.
       | 
       | Pluralism had been eradicated in the western society. I can't
       | speak freely in Canada. People get cancelled or jailed for
       | speaking their mind in UK. US is not too far behind in that.
       | 
       | There is no meaningful pluralism in the West. They never make a
       | long term plan they can follow for many years.
       | 
       | China has monolithic ( more so ) society with shared culture,
       | language(s) and national identity that runs deep to the gene
       | level. They don't don't allow foreign influence to erode it. It's
       | much easier to make progress when people share the same long term
       | vision and goals.
       | 
       | CPC is doing just fine leading the country into the future. Sure,
       | it has a monopoly on power, but it also owns its mistakes and
       | fixes them. Multiparty systems of the USA and the rest of the
       | West are just two curtains on the stage, and when you draw the
       | curtains you see the same people attending the same party.
       | 
       | Elected officials aim to earn as much as they can in their short
       | stay in power. After all, they only have a few years before they
       | get replaced, better make use of the short time you got.
       | 
       | China IMO has a much brighter outlook for the future
        
         | dpark wrote:
         | > USA has been in decline all that time and decent accelerated
         | after Cold War with Russia ended.
         | 
         | Exactly when do you believe this decline started? I have some
         | major concerns about the current trajectory of the USA, but it
         | seems like nonsense to say that the US has been in decline
         | since well before the Cold War ended.
         | 
         | > I can't speak freely in Canada
         | 
         | I wonder what it is that you want to say but can't.
         | 
         | Comparing China positively against western nations and then
         | griping about limits on freedom of speech in western nations
         | seems suspect regardless.
         | 
         | > Elected officials aim to earn as much as they can in their
         | short stay in power.
         | 
         | That's true. Unelected officials can stay in power and accrue
         | wealth for much longer than elected officials.
        
           | nullorempty wrote:
           | > Exactly when do you believe this decline started? with
           | 'perestroyka' in the USSR which predates end of the cold war
           | - ever since they thought they won over communist/socialist
           | ideas and accelerated with the breakup of the USSR
           | 
           | >I wonder what it is that you want to say but can't.
           | 
           | Nice try, this won't provoke me.
           | 
           | >That's true. Unelected officials can stay in power and
           | accrue wealth for much longer than elected officials.
           | 
           | Sure, sure. The systems are setup differently but you are
           | using the same logic for both coming from the assumption that
           | power is used to acquire personal wealth.
           | 
           | For some (many) power isn't about acquisition of wealth but
           | about responsibility, taking care of a hard chore. It's a
           | mistake to think that Xi is in power for wealth.
           | 
           | I often draw a parallel with being a father. You have some
           | power, but mostly you have responsibilities.
        
             | dpark wrote:
             | > ever since they thought they won over communist/socialist
             | ideas, i.e. with the breakup of the USSR
             | 
             | You seem to have redefined the timeframe significantly.
             | Previously you indicated that the decline was happening
             | even before the end of the Cold War.
             | 
             | I don't believe that this is a true statement even since
             | the fall of the USSR, though. I'd be interested in what
             | data or metrics this claim of decline is based on.
             | 
             | > Nice try, this won't provoke me.
             | 
             | You're so unprovoked that you didn't even address the
             | concern. You could have pointed at what you believed was
             | problematic suppression of free speech (of which there are
             | certainly some examples in western nations) without
             | actually divulging your apparently controversial beliefs.
             | 
             | Bluntly, I believe your criticism here is dishonest. Pearl
             | clutching about apparent suppression of free speech in the
             | west while pointing to a nation that sends ethnic Muslim
             | minorities to reeducation camps as a better system is
             | deeply disingenuous.
             | 
             | > It's a mistake to think that Xi is in power for wealth.
             | 
             | > I often draw a parallel with being a father. You have
             | some power, but mostly you have responsibilities.
             | 
             | This is a man who refused the traditional transfer of power
             | within the CCP and had the Chinese constitution revised so
             | that he could remain in power. This is absolutely a man who
             | wants power and wealth.
             | 
             | You're plainly biased.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | China has very limited internal natural resources. Much of
         | their growth has been enabled by massive imports of raw
         | materials including soybeans, fertilizer, fossil fuels, iron
         | ore, copper ore, etc. Their prosperity and even their survival
         | is heavily dependent on the post-WWII global free trade system.
         | Ironically, China's expansionist foreign policy is one of
         | several factors now causing that system to fray. In another
         | decade they might find it's not so easy to import soybeans from
         | Brazil and crude oil from Saudi Arabia and ores from Australia.
         | 
         | I share your concerns over effective loss of freedom of
         | expression in western countries. In the USA at least cancel
         | culture seems to be dying out and people no longer feel as
         | obligated to be politically correct or self-censor. But the UK
         | may be permanently lost.
        
           | nullorempty wrote:
           | They have that which matters the most - people with certain
           | set of beliefs. That's the wealth of China, which they share
           | generously with the West - just look at the Chinese
           | developers and scientists that work in the West.
        
       | mxschumacher wrote:
       | My copy of Breakneck arrived a few days ago and I'm rushing
       | through the book, hard to put down, highly recommended
        
       | Anton_Ingachev wrote:
       | Happy New year
        
       | stackbutterflow wrote:
       | > Narrowness of mind is something that makes me uneasy about the
       | tech world.
       | 
       | > The Bay Area has all sorts of autistic tendencies. Though
       | Silicon Valley values the ability to move fast, the rest of
       | society has paid more attention to instances in which tech wants
       | to break things.
       | 
       | > There's a general lack of cultural awareness in the Bay Area.
       | It's easy to hear at these parties that a person's favorite
       | nonfiction book is Seeing Like a State while their aspirationally
       | favorite novel is Middlemarch.
       | 
       | It's refreshing to read someone addressing this aspect of the
       | Mecca of the tech word.
       | 
       | For the reasons above the tech elites are the ones I trust the
       | less and fear the most when they are involved in national and
       | international politics. And I think the current state of the US
       | is directly caused by the rise of post dot com Silicon Valley.
        
       | dzonga wrote:
       | London has the house prices of California and the income levels
       | of Mississippi.
       | 
       | the UK is seriously broken, I always reflect on the energy
       | generation statistics of the UK per capita
       | 
       | while in the US you see automated car washes, in the uk most car
       | washes are Albanians n other immigrants etc
        
         | klysm wrote:
         | Income and wealth inequality! I don't see a way out for the UK
        
           | specproc wrote:
           | We're a wholly-owned subsidiary of America Inc., Minsk to
           | Washington's Moscow.
           | 
           | The Vampire Squid has its tentacles in all our orifices, and
           | we won't be free till we cut it off, or it dies of an
           | obesity-related illness.
        
             | 01284a7e wrote:
             | Meh. Everywhere has foreign investment. The economic elite
             | of the UK owns the US as well.
        
             | lithocarpus wrote:
             | Not disagreeing but also I wonder how it compares to
             | inequality in Britain before the US was a thing.
        
               | specproc wrote:
               | The core issue is that most major businesses are
               | ultimately owned directly or indirectly abroad, largely
               | in America, with some tapping by London-based
               | intermediaries.
               | 
               | Supermarkets and shopping centres, national assets (e.g.,
               | water) the story is the same. Then there's Amazon et al.
               | 
               | Profit generated in this country is by and large not
               | spent here, and is certainly not taxed adequately.
               | 
               | This causes inequality by short-circuiting redistributive
               | measures, either local economic multipliers or government
               | spending.
               | 
               | What gains are felt are concentrated in service sectors
               | which facilitate global capital, concentrated in London.
               | See OP's thoughts on legalistic societies.
               | 
               | It compares to inequality in England before the US was a
               | thing, in the same way. Small elite benefiting from
               | global plunder, vast inequality internally.
               | 
               | The British Empire didn't actually end. There was a
               | hostile takeover by Washington at the end of WW2.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | The UK is already close to the USA on obesity rates and
             | catching up fast.
        
           | turbonaut wrote:
           | Median wealth per adult in the UK is 176k. In the US it is
           | only 124k.
           | 
           | Source: UBS Global Wealth Report 2025
           | 
           | Of course US does has a much higher mean wealth...
        
         | bix6 wrote:
         | House prices are out of wack anywhere desirable because the
         | local income is irrelevant when non-locals are allowed to scoop
         | up the local supply.
        
           | yunnpp wrote:
           | Countries like Indonesia have banned foreigners from owning
           | land altogether. You can apparently still own property
           | through land-lease agreements and other arrangements, but not
           | the land. I think they've cracked down on illegal rentals
           | too.
        
           | shimman wrote:
           | House prices are only "out of wack" in areas with poor social
           | housing programs.
           | 
           | Housing in Vienna is still affordable, only due to their very
           | successful public housing programs. Public housing can be
           | both beautiful and highly affordable if you want it to be,
           | it's not like we don't know how to make good quality homes
           | with lovely public amenities. It's mostly developers that
           | want to skim on everything while selling it at the highest
           | cost possible.
           | 
           | Poor system if this is the outcome: unaffordability.
        
             | lifeisstillgood wrote:
             | I am interested in what is working in Vienna when "housing
             | problem" is what almost every city in "the West" has or
             | thinks it has.
             | 
             | To me it seems to be a combination of
             | 
             | - wealth inequality (eg 20/30 trillion dollars was printed
             | and furloughed out in Covid, which funnels its way up to
             | the holders of the most assets, seeing asset price
             | inflation but no attempt to tax back the money printed).
             | Repeat on different scales for unfair tax systems and poor
             | infrastructure and and and
             | 
             | - urban planning (we think the ideal city is dense using
             | seven storey or so apartment buildings and fairly
             | aggressive anti-car (ie far less parking than seems
             | possible) with better public transport and lots of
             | pedestrian access. This describes almost no cities
             | 
             | - mortgages and other pro house incentives. You want house
             | price inflation for decade after decade, just allow people
             | to borrow a greater ratio against their salary -- and allow
             | married women into the workplace. Suddenly turning a
             | mortgage limit of 2.5 x a man's salary into 5x a dual
             | couples salary. People bid up prices, forcing more couples
             | to have two salaries to compete. And companies don't have
             | to increase salary to compensate ... people combine
             | salaries and go deeper into debt. Hell if you only had one
             | policy weapon, forcing 2.5 borrowing against one highest
             | paid persons salary is not a bad one. You won't get re-
             | elected however.
        
           | carlosjobim wrote:
           | Real estate prices are out of whack everywhere. Even in
           | places with no good jobs, low population density, and rapid
           | depopulation, real estate prices are increasing
           | exponentially. There are no market forces in play anymore.
        
           | socalgal2 wrote:
           | This is a common opinion that never actually matches the
           | facts.
           | 
           | The issue is all the things blocking supply. As long as
           | supply is blocked, prices will go up, Period
        
         | xixixao wrote:
         | There are differences, but this is oversimplified, and market
         | is "mostly" working. You need more money in California, for
         | transportation, for health care. The standard is bigger houses
         | (bigger everything) in Cali. Life might be richer, in some ways
         | more pleasant, in London (it's not weather though), including
         | shorter flights to many interesting places.
         | 
         | From my experience the ratio of savings was similar, but the
         | ppp of course favored US for absolute numbers.
        
         | kubb wrote:
         | Nobody will admit that the housing is overpriced, so they would
         | have to be forced to do so.
         | 
         | This is terrible for normal people, and slightly bad for the
         | investors, but only a crisis or organized government action can
         | reset the damage done by decades of investment in already
         | existing buildings.
         | 
         | The former is much more likely to happen.
        
         | verbify wrote:
         | I spot checked some of this and from what I can find, the
         | median salary in London is about $12k more than Mississippi,
         | and the median house price in London is about $100k less than
         | California.
         | 
         | Bear in mind that obviously the mean salary in London is going
         | to be far higher than the median (the finance industry will
         | skew it), while I'm not sure that's as extreme as Mississippi.
         | Additionally median salaries reflect a lot of service jobs and
         | similar labour. Dubai has a lower median wage than either
         | London or Mississippi, but people don't think of it as
         | economically broken.
         | 
         | Comparing California (an extremely large state that I presume
         | has cheaper housing outside major urban areas) to a city seems
         | a bit of a poor comparison.
         | 
         | I don't disagree that the UK has high energy costs.
        
           | lukevp wrote:
           | If you're trying to do a rebuttal, saying that wages are
           | slightly higher than Mississippi and house prices are
           | slightly lower than Cali doesn't refute anything, it just
           | serves to make the example more extreme and concrete. Look at
           | house prices in Mississippi in relation to their income and
           | then compare the same ratio for Cali and for London.
        
             | piker wrote:
             | Also, taxes?
        
           | kortilla wrote:
           | If this was meant to be a rebuttal, it wasn't.
           | 
           | Compare the housing costs of London to the housing costs of
           | San Francisco and then swap out those Bay Area salaries with
           | your "slightly above Mississippi" wages and you'll see why
           | London looks so broken to people used to LA/SF/NY.
        
           | financetechbro wrote:
           | Dubai is absolutely economically broken lol. The city was
           | built on cheap foreign slave labor. And the luxurious
           | amenities of the city are only for the wealthy royal and
           | foreigners. Their main export besides oil is the illusion of
           | a thriving metropolis
        
             | Cyph0n wrote:
             | The example I like to use to demonstrate how broken labor
             | vs. service costs are in the UAE is to compare the price of
             | a Big Mac meal to the price of a standard manual car wash
             | (closer to detailing tbh).
             | 
             | In the UAE, a Big Mac meal costs approximately 35 AED
             | ($10). On the other hand, a manual car wash - approx. 1-2
             | hours of labor - can cost you around 20 AED.
             | 
             | In other words, you could get two manual car washes for the
             | price of a Big Mac.
        
         | jemmyw wrote:
         | > while in the US you see automated car washes, in the uk most
         | car washes are Albanians n other immigrants etc
         | 
         | Er what? I moved away from the UK in 2007 but even then the
         | only place I or my parents washed a car was the ubiquitous
         | petrol station automated car wash.
        
           | drcongo wrote:
           | I can only think of one automated wash in my UK town, and
           | well over 10 "Albanian" hand washes. Personally I go to the
           | Albanians every time - they take pride in what they're doing,
           | handle the vehicle with care and do a far, far better job
           | than an auto wash.
        
           | basisword wrote:
           | No idea where OP is based but like most suggestions about the
           | UK or London online it's bullshit. Most petrol stations have
           | the same automated car washes they've always had. If you want
           | your car hand washed there are lots of people doing that too,
           | as there always have been. Like all places, the UK and/or
           | London has plenty of issues including serious ones - but I'd
           | still pick it over anywhere in the US regardless of salary
           | differences.
        
         | pron wrote:
         | London doesn't have the income level of Mississippi, although
         | that might be true for the UK average. I'd say that the UK may
         | be "seriously broken", but not more than other post-industrial
         | countries, including the US (or France, or Japan). It's just
         | broken in different ways. E.g. life expectancy in the UK is
         | significantly higher than in America, even though they were the
         | same in the '80s. Education levels (and measures such as
         | literacy profficiency and skills etc.) are also significantly
         | better in the UK than in the US. Somewhat tongue in cheek,
         | Americans are richer but they don't seem to be putting their
         | money to good use as Brits are better educated and live longer.
        
         | i_love_retros wrote:
         | Yes but London isn't in America so there's that.
         | 
         | Have you lived in the UK at all, or at least spent considerable
         | time there?
         | 
         | I've lived in the UK and America, and America seems far more
         | broken to me.
        
       | ksec wrote:
       | In the thread "Roomba maker goes bankrupt, Chinese owner emerges"
       | [1], I wrote about China'a hardware capability now going far
       | beyond what US can imagine. In Dan's article;
       | 
       | >A rule of thumb is that it takes five years from an American,
       | German, or Japanese automaker to dream up a new car design and
       | launch that model on the roads; in China, it's closer to 18
       | months.
       | 
       | Not only is China 3 - 5 times faster in terms of product
       | launches, they would have launch it with a production scale that
       | is _at least double_ the output of other auto marker. If you were
       | to put capacity into the equation as well, China is an order of
       | magnitude faster than any competing countries, at half the cost
       | if not even lower.
       | 
       | Every single year since 2022 China has added more solar power
       | capacity than the entire US solar capacity. And they are _still
       | accelerating_ , with the current roadmap and trend they could
       | install _double_ the entire US solar power capacity in a single
       | year by 2030.
       | 
       | CATL's Sodium Ion Battery is already in production and will be
       | used by EVs and large scale energy storage by end of this year.
       | The cost advantage of these new EV would mean there is partially
       | zero chance EU can compete. And if EU are moaning about it now,
       | they cant even imagine what is coming.
       | 
       | Thanks to AI pushing up memory and NAND price. YMTC and CXMT now
       | have enough breathing room to catch up. If they play this right,
       | I wont be surprised by 2035 30 - 40% of DRAM and NAND will be
       | made by the two Chinese firms. Although judging from their past
       | execution record I highly doubt this will happen, but expect may
       | be 10-15% maximum.
       | 
       | Beyond tech, there are also other part of manufacturing that
       | China has matched or exceeded rest of the world without being
       | noticed by many. Lab Grown Diamond, Cosmetic Production,
       | Agricultural Machinery, Reinforced glass etc. Their 10 years plan
       | on agricultural improvement also come to fruition especially in
       | terms of fruit and veg. I wont be surprised if they no long need
       | US soy bean within 10 years time.
       | 
       | All in all a lot of things in China has passed escape velocity
       | and there is no turning back. China understand US better than US
       | understand themselves, and US doesn't even have any idea about
       | China. I think the quote from the article sums this up pretty
       | well.
       | 
       | " _Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for
       | waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without
       | preparing for it._ ".
       | 
       | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46273326
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | China doesn't particularly need US soybeans but they're going
         | to have to continue importing soybeans from somewhere (like
         | Brazil or Canada) indefinitely. Like any commodity, soybeans
         | are (somewhat) fungible. China doesn't have the right
         | combination of arable land and cheap fertilizer necessary to be
         | self-sufficient in soy at an economically viable cost. Of
         | course, China's population is now declining so ironically that
         | could increase their food security in a few decades.
        
           | maxglute wrote:
           | Along ops reasoning, PRC will find domestic slop to feed
           | pigs. There's already soybean replacement program in the
           | pipelines, i.e. synthetic science + cheap power = future
           | industrial substitutes. Because soybean conundrum is arable
           | land (all sorts of soybean yield, lack of GMO, small plot
           | farmer complexity mixed in), but pork prices fall under broad
           | food (national) security so expect autarky > comparative
           | advantage / cost when domestic pipeline in place. Like
           | there's no reason for PRC to pay US soybean premium over
           | Brazil, but they would because economic viability not as
           | important.
           | 
           | TBH Anything strategic, expect PRC to adopt energy-to-matter
           | to substitutes when the teach stack is figured out. Or at
           | least have as less economic backup, i.e. PRC has unlimited
           | cheap fertilizer (was top fertilizer producer via coal
           | gasification) just more emission heavy. They're on way to
           | displace all oil imports with coal to olefin/liquidation and
           | EV. HQ steel via simply hammering energy into mid ores. All
           | signs point they're moving towards strategic domestic
           | abundance / autarky where they can.
        
         | riku_iki wrote:
         | that's obvious that some country with 1.5B working people will
         | have edge in some niches, and will demonstrate tremendous
         | growth from the bottom where they were 20 years ago.
         | 
         | But for global picture, if we are comparing Western World:
         | US+Canada+EU vs China in technological domination, the picture
         | is likely not super-clear and more complex analysis is
         | required. Even if we consider manufacturing output, where China
         | is supposedly global leader, we see it is 5.5T for Western
         | world vs 4.6T for China (according to my brief google
         | searching).
        
       | ceuk wrote:
       | As a Brit, I struggled to get much interesting out of this
       | considering how many times he mentions "Europe" (in that
       | condescendingly general way that only US folks seem to manage).
       | 
       | He talks about "European" prospects and his trip to Denmark but
       | then cites London as a representative example?
       | 
       | This almost broke my brain it felt so incoherent.
       | 
       | Never mind that (despite my personal wishes) we're not even part
       | of the EU (which I assume is what he means by "Europe"). _Surely_
       | he knows what an anomaly London is? It 's not representative of
       | anything except itself.
       | 
       | Referencing the extreme wage dispersion and severe housing
       | pressure of London in a rant about Europe in general is a
       | completely pointless endeavour.
       | 
       | He did say one thing I agree with. If you like good food, rich
       | culture and great surroundings, "Europe" is indeed a lovely place
       | to be for the most part.
       | 
       | Maybe I'll just keep that as my takeaway. It's too early in the
       | year for doom and gloom anyway
        
         | yunnpp wrote:
         | "Africa"
        
         | xixixao wrote:
         | He's writing about China and US. Sure, you can call Europe more
         | diverse, but still it makes sense to draw some generalizations,
         | and I don't think he's far from the mark (having myself lived
         | in EU, UK and US).
        
         | BrokenCogs wrote:
         | It's pretty clear he meant Europe as the continent, which
         | London is a part of.
         | 
         | It's very similar to "Europeans" broadly generalizing the US as
         | one homogenous country, assuming everyone and everything in
         | Chicago is the same as New York or Dallas.
         | 
         | Source: me, a brit, who has lived and worked in UK and US.
        
         | npalli wrote:
         | Just like San Francisco and Dallas/Texas (from his article) are
         | very different in the US, we should expect lot of differences
         | in Europe (as others mentioned, he clubs UK with EU). Housing
         | is a general problem for all major cities though, not sure why
         | you think it is unique to London in the whole continent.
         | Stockholm, Paris, Dublin, Lisbon to name a few, are pretty bad
         | for housing in their own unique ways. Certainly shouldn't be
         | "breaking your brain".
        
           | verbify wrote:
           | > Just like San Francisco and Dallas/Texas (from his article)
           | are very different in the US, we should expect lot of
           | differences in Europe
           | 
           | Dallas and San Francisco are both English speaking cities
           | with a shared recent history of being part of the same
           | nation. Most cities in Europe are as close as New York and
           | Mexico City - Dallas and San Francisco is probably more
           | analogous to Milan and Naples (different cultures, different
           | histories, but now speak the same language and are part of
           | the same nation).
        
         | kubb wrote:
         | He's a Chinese guy in the US. He thinks in terms of large
         | monoliths. The nuance of 40 different cultures on a small
         | continent might be lost on him.
         | 
         | That's OK.
         | 
         | We all have some approximation of reality in our brains which
         | is necessarily shaped by our life experiences.
        
           | kankerlijer wrote:
           | There is something very irritating seeing someone dismiss
           | someone else on the internet using condescending therapy
           | speak 'Thats Ok', nevermind the fact that calling him out as
           | some ignorant Chinese guy while China has hundreds of
           | cultures and languages, as if a Chinese person couldn't
           | comprehend... Europe.
        
             | kubb wrote:
             | The way to respect isn't through shaming people into it.
             | It's through demonstration of value, in this case
             | understanding of nuance.
             | 
             | Instead we get an application of external logic and values
             | which can't be used to properly reason about the entity
             | they're applied to.
             | 
             | There's no need for frustration. We take the stoic approach
             | here. It's OK. You are a product of your environment.
             | Everything you've ever experienced told you this is the way
             | to act.
        
           | tshaddox wrote:
           | > The nuance of 40 different cultures on a small continent
           | might be lost on him.
           | 
           | I don't know about the author in particular, but Americans
           | are generally aware of the "nuanced" European history of near
           | constant war between rival nations, states, factions, and
           | religions.
        
             | kubb wrote:
             | I think they could do a better job communicating that, but
             | I'm glad that Americans are educated and curious about
             | other parts of the world.
        
           | ViktorRay wrote:
           | Your statement here is pretty ironic.
           | 
           | China also has many different cultures, languages and so on
           | for the over 1.4 billion people who live there. Why would the
           | "nuance" of Europe be "lost" on a Chinese person?
        
             | seanmcdirmid wrote:
             | China mostly has a single national identity, and provincial
             | differences are way too nuanced to be mapped in the same
             | way that country differences in Europe would be. It would
             | be like trying to get Americans to understand that "Henan
             | man" is a meme similar to the "Florida man" meme.
        
         | tshaddox wrote:
         | > Never mind that (despite my personal wishes) we're not even
         | part of the EU (which I assume is what he means by "Europe").
         | 
         | Nah, Americans aren't particularly interested in which
         | Europeans are offended by being identified as "Europeans" this
         | week. If we say "Europe" without qualification we're probably
         | just talking about the continent. (And no, we don't even use
         | the word "continent" as a distinction within Europe, except
         | when referring to hotel breakfasts.)
         | 
         | Americans don't really have much of a concept of what European
         | identity is, and we don't really care (other than being
         | grateful for a few decades of relative peace after 1,000 or so
         | years of near constant war).
        
           | ceuk wrote:
           | > Americans don't really have much of a concept of what
           | European identity is, and we don't really care
           | 
           | Cool. Look, I made that comment with a lot of fondness, but
           | if this is the case, maybe leave the European analysis to
           | someone else..
        
         | maxglute wrote:
         | He's a Canadian in America writing about China. He writes about
         | bloc strategic competition. EU+UK is treated as bloc in this
         | context, individual European countries are generally irrelevant
         | alone.
        
       | siavosh wrote:
       | I read the whole post. Really revealing - so much analysis but
       | not a single mention of a global system that is reaching a
       | singularity in wealth concentration, and maybe how that might be
       | an important dimension to reflect on. Its like using so many
       | words to deeply analyze the speed differentials in a car race,
       | but not looking up to see that all the drivers are racing towards
       | a brick wall.
        
         | Uhhrrr wrote:
         | A wealth singularity is not obvious at all to me, perhaps you
         | should write an essay about it.
        
       | kalkin wrote:
       | I have nonspecific positive associations with Dan Wang's name, so
       | I rolled my eyes a bit but kept going when "If the Bay Area once
       | had an impish side, it has gone the way of most hardware
       | tinkerers and hippie communes" was followed up by "People aren't
       | reminiscing over some lost golden age..."
       | 
       | But I stopped at this:
       | 
       | > "AI will be either the best or the worst thing ever." It's a
       | Pascal's Wager
       | 
       | That's not what Pascal's wager is! Apocalyptic religion dates
       | back more than two thousand years and Blaise Pascal lived in the
       | 17th century! When Rosa Luxemburg said to expect "socialism or
       | barbarism", she was not doing a Pascal's Wager! Pascal's Wager
       | doesn't just involve infinite stakes, but also infinitesimal
       | probabilities!
       | 
       | The phrase has become a thought-terminating cliche for the sort
       | of person who wants to dismiss any claim that stakes around AI
       | are very high, but has too many intellectual aspirations to just
       | stop with "nothing ever happens." It's no wonder that the author
       | finds it "hard to know what to make of" AI 2027 and says that
       | "why they put that year in their title remains beyond me."
       | 
       | It's one thing to notice the commonalities between some AI doom
       | discourse and apocalyptic religion. It's another to make this
       | into such a thoughtless reflex that you also completely muddle
       | your understanding of the Christian apologetics you're
       | referencing. There's a sort of determined refusal to even grasp
       | the arguments that an AI doomer might make, even while writing an
       | extended meditation on AI, for which I've grown increasingly
       | intolerant. It's 2026. Let's advance the discourse.
        
       | almostdeadguy wrote:
       | > I believe that Silicon Valley possesses plenty of virtues. To
       | start, it is the most meritocratic part of America. Tech is so
       | open towards immigrants that it has driven populists into a froth
       | of rage. It remains male-heavy and practices plenty of
       | gatekeeping. But San Francisco better embodies an ethos of
       | openness relative to the rest of the country. Industries on the
       | east coast -- finance, media, universities, policy -- tend to
       | more carefully weigh name and pedigree.
       | 
       | I believe I read that 27% of the founders in the YC Spring 25
       | class went to an Ivy League school and 40% previously worked at a
       | magnificent 7 company. I'm not saying this is any worse than the
       | east coast, but so much for name and pedigree not mattering.
       | 
       | Northern California is what it always has been: the barrier wall
       | of manifest destiny, where instead of crossing the ocean the
       | pioneers and all subsequent generations stayed to incubate the
       | same incentives, and have been relentlessly in pursuit of the
       | next gold rush. Gold, yellow journalism, semiconductors, personal
       | computing, SaaS, crypto, AI, etc. It's the sink drain attractor
       | of people looking to improve their fortunes in one way or
       | another, but almost always around some kind of bonanza of
       | concentrated opportunity. The concept of it being "meritocratic"
       | is a rephrasing of ideology that's always existed about the
       | region: you too could get rich here. But I don't really see any
       | difference in the networks of power that exist in SV as do the
       | rest of the country.
       | 
       | I grew up in the bay area and am far happier living outside it.
       | I'm happier to be in a place where art and the humanities are
       | valued instead of cast aside as immaterial or silly or a
       | distraction. I'm happier to live in a place where people have
       | varied interests instead of orienting their life around whatever
       | the prevailing Big Thing is.
       | 
       | > So the 20-year-olds who accompanied Mr. Musk into the
       | Department of Government Efficiency did not, I would say,
       | distinguish themselves with their judiciousness. The Bay Area has
       | all sorts of autistic tendencies. Though Silicon Valley values
       | the ability to move fast, the rest of society has paid more
       | attention to instances in which tech wants to break things. It is
       | not surprising that hardcore contingents on both the left and the
       | right have developed hostility to most everything that emerges
       | from Silicon Valley.
       | 
       | I see some positive aspects as to more inclusive definitions of
       | autism and neurodivergence, but I hate that we're at the point
       | where "trying to get rich at all costs" is now perceived as
       | autistic (and let's be clear: using mobile gas turbines that get
       | people sick to generate power for AI is not "autistic"). Greed is
       | not autistic, but of course the ideology of SV is that nobody
       | actually cares about money there. Why else would they have
       | apartments without furniture and piles of pizza boxes. It must be
       | the autism.
       | 
       | > While critics of AI cite the spread of slop and rising power
       | bills, AI's architects are more focused on its potential to
       | produce surging job losses. Anthropic chief Dario Amodei takes
       | pains to point out that AI could push the unemployment rate to 20
       | percent by eviscerating white-collar work. I wonder whether this
       | message is helping to endear his product to the public.
       | 
       | The animating concern of developing AI since 2015 has basically
       | been "MAD" applied to the technology. The Bostrom book mentioned
       | later in this article was clearly instrumental in creating this
       | language to think about AI, as you can see many tech CEOs began
       | getting "concerned" about AI around this time, prior to many of
       | the big developments in AI like transformers. One of the seminal
       | emails of OpenAI between Musk and Altman talks about starting a
       | "Manhattan Project for AI". This was a useful concept to graft
       | the development of these companies onto:
       | 
       | 1. Firstly, it's a threat to investors. Get in on the ground
       | floor or you will get left behind. We are building tomorrow's
       | winners and losers and there are a lot of losers in the future.
       | 
       | 2. Secondly, it leads to a natural source of government support.
       | This is a national security concern. Fund this, guarantee the
       | success of this, or America will lose.
       | 
       | On both counts, this framing seems to be working pretty well.
        
       | RagnarD wrote:
       | To my surprise I found myself reading the entire rather long
       | piece. His thoughts on AI, San Francisco, China, and other
       | topics, are well worth the time.
        
       | constantcrying wrote:
       | As a European, the commentary felt very biting and accurate. An
       | entire continent defined by being smug about not being the USA.
       | Where not competing is seen as a great virtue and where
       | significant parts of the electorate are actively voting against
       | fixing the glaringly obvious problems.
       | 
       | The supposed niceness of the cities also is just not true. Many
       | European cities are awful places. Where, maybe with the exception
       | of a few tourist areas, you will only find dirty streets, rows of
       | old apartment building regularly smeared with graffiti, shops
       | selling used phones and vapes and food stores competing over who
       | can sell the cheapest, still edible Kebab.
        
         | xandrius wrote:
         | You haven't been much around outside of Europe then.
         | 
         | And given what is currently coming out of the US in terms of
         | worldwide cultural impact, I'm ok to be anti-whatever that is.
        
       | performative wrote:
       | he makes enough odd claims about cities and countries in the
       | beginning that i can only assume aren't really meant to be taken
       | seriously, so i'm at a bit of a loss for how i should be reading
       | this
        
       | maxglute wrote:
       | >But American problems seem more fixable to me than Chinese
       | problems
       | 
       | Dan still one of the sharper PRC writers, but like all analysts
       | who moves from PRC to stateside, he used to be Canadian in China
       | writing about China to US, now Canadian writing in US about
       | China, Dan starts peddling Murican dynamism cope, maybe something
       | in the water. i.e. see his his post breakneck Chinatalk
       | interview: Humorless engineering governance can't beat very funny
       | Trump/US governance is... certainly a take. Maybe he should do
       | his audience a favor and elucidate why boring competent engineer
       | government is less dynamic/resilient than lawyers other than
       | elections can pivot fast to reduce lawyers (kek) and something
       | something and see see pee can't pivot fast to make productive
       | innovative libtards, since seeseepee STEM can't innovate. Because
       | as we know fast 4 year election cycles work better than slow 5
       | year plans. CCP certain needs 50% more lawyers... to slow it
       | down.
        
       | gaaz wrote:
       | 0
        
       | AJRF wrote:
       | Great read. I listened to Dan on Tyler Cowen's podcast and found
       | him to be a very interesting thinker. He has the air of someone
       | who is a lot more intellectually honest than a lot of our pundits
       | (Tyler is pretty good though, he's not that target of this
       | comment)
        
       | OGEnthusiast wrote:
       | Spot on by Dan as always, especially about the decline of Europe
       | and the rise of China.
        
       | ralph84 wrote:
       | The Europe of today is the result of 400 years of brain drain. It
       | would take generations to reverse the effects, if anyone even
       | wanted to.
        
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