[HN Gopher] History LLMs: Models trained exclusively on pre-1913...
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       History LLMs: Models trained exclusively on pre-1913 texts
        
       Author : iamwil
       Score  : 847 points
       Date   : 2025-12-18 22:39 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (github.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (github.com)
        
       | superkuh wrote:
       | smbc did a comic about this: http://smbc-
       | comics.com/comic/copyright The punchline is that the moral and
       | ethical norms of pre-1913 texts are not exactly compatible with
       | modern norms.
        
         | GaryBluto wrote:
         | That's the point of this project, to have an LLM that reflects
         | the moral and ethical norms of pre-1913 texts.
        
       | saaaaaam wrote:
       | "Time-locked models don't roleplay; they embody their training
       | data. Ranke-4B-1913 doesn't know about WWI because WWI hasn't
       | happened in its textual universe. It can be surprised by your
       | questions in ways modern LLMs cannot."
       | 
       | "Modern LLMs suffer from hindsight contamination. GPT-5 knows how
       | the story ends--WWI, the League's failure, the Spanish flu."
       | 
       | This is really fascinating. As someone who reads a lot of history
       | and historical fiction I think this is really intriguing. Imagine
       | having a conversation with someone genuinely from the period,
       | where they don't know the "end of the story".
        
         | observationist wrote:
         | This is definitely fascinating - being able to do AI brain
         | surgery, and selectively tuning its knowledge and priors, you'd
         | be able to create awesome and terrifying simulations.
        
           | eek2121 wrote:
           | Respectfully, LLMs are nothing like a brain, and I discourage
           | comparisons between the two, because beyond a complete
           | difference in the way they operate, a brain can innovate, and
           | as of this moment, an LLM cannot because it relies on
           | previously available information.
           | 
           | LLMs are just seemingly intelligent autocomplete engines, and
           | until they figure a way to stop the hallucinations, they
           | aren't great either.
           | 
           | Every piece of code a developer churns out using LLMs will be
           | built from previous code that other developers have written
           | (including both strengths and weaknesses, btw). Every
           | paragraph you ask it to write in a summary? Same. Every
           | single other problem? Same. Ask it to generate a summary of a
           | document? Don't trust it here either. [Note, expect cyber-
           | attacks later on regarding this scenario, it is beginning to
           | happen -- documents made intentionally obtuse to fool an LLM
           | into hallucinating about the document, which leads to someone
           | signing a contract, conning the person out of millions].
           | 
           | If you ask an LLM to solve something no human has, you'll get
           | a fabrication, which has fooled quite a few folks and caused
           | them to jeopardize their career (lawyers, etc) which is why I
           | am posting this.
        
             | libraryofbabel wrote:
             | This is the 2023 take on LLMs. It still gets repeated a
             | lot. But it doesn't really hold up anymore - it's more
             | complicated than that. Don't let some factoid about how
             | they are pretrained on autocomplete-like next token
             | prediction fool you into thinking you understand what is
             | going on in that trillion parameter neural network.
             | 
             | Sure, LLMs do not think like humans and they may not have
             | human-level creativity. Sometimes they hallucinate. But
             | they can absolutely solve new problems that aren't in their
             | training set, e.g. some rather difficult problems on the
             | last Mathematical Olympiad. They don't just regurgitate
             | remixes of their training data. If you don't believe this,
             | you really need to spend more time with the latest SotA
             | models like Opus 4.5 or Gemini 3.
             | 
             | Nontrivial emergent behavior is a thing. It will only get
             | more impressive. That doesn't make LLMs like humans (and we
             | shouldn't anthropomorphize them) but they are not
             | "autocomplete on steroids" anymore either.
        
               | deadbolt wrote:
               | As someone who still might have a '2023 take on LLMs',
               | even though I use them often at work, where would you
               | recommend I look to learn more about what a '2025 LLM'
               | is, and how they operate differently?
        
               | krackers wrote:
               | Papers on mechanistic interpratability and representation
               | engineering, e.g. from Anthropic would be a good start.
        
               | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
               | Don't bother. This bubble will pop in two years, you
               | don't want to look back on your old comments in shame in
               | three.
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | > _Don't let some factoid about how they are pretrained
               | on autocomplete-like next token prediction fool you into
               | thinking you understand what is going on in that trillion
               | parameter neural network._
               | 
               | This is just an appeal to complexity, not a rebuttal to
               | the critique of likening an LLM to a human brain.
               | 
               | > _they are not "autocomplete on steroids" anymore
               | either._
               | 
               | Yes, they are. The steroids are just even more powerful.
               | By refining training data quality, increasing parameter
               | size, and increasing context length we can squeeze more
               | utility out of LLMs than ever before, but ultimately,
               | Opus 4.5 is the same thing as GPT2, it's only that
               | coherence lasts a few pages rather than a few sentences.
        
               | A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote:
               | But.. and I am not asking it for giggles, does it mean
               | humans are giant autocomplete machines?
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | Not at all. Why would it?
        
               | A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote:
               | Call it a.. thought experiment about the question of
               | scale.
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | I'm not exactly sure what you mean. Could you please
               | elaborate further?
        
               | a1j9o94 wrote:
               | Not the person you're responding to, but I think there's
               | a non trivial argument to make that our thoughts are just
               | auto complete. What is the next most likely word based on
               | what you're seeing. Ever watched a movie and guessed the
               | plot? Or read a comment and know where it was going to go
               | by the end?
               | 
               | And I know not everyone thinks in a literal stream of
               | words all the time (I do) but I would argue that those
               | people's brains are just using a different "token"
        
               | 9dev wrote:
               | You, and OP, are taking an analogy way too far. Yes,
               | humans have the mental capability to predict words
               | similar to autocomplete, but obviously this is just one
               | out of a myriad of mental capabilities typical humans
               | have, which work regardless of text. You can predict
               | where a ball will go if you throw it, you can reason
               | about gravity, and so much more. It's not just apples to
               | oranges, not even apples to boats, it's apples to
               | intersubjective realities.
        
               | LiKao wrote:
               | Look up predictive coding theory. According to that
               | theory, what our brain does is in fact just autocomplete.
               | 
               | However, what it is doing is layered autocomplete on
               | itself. I.e. one part is trying to predict what the other
               | part will be producing and training itself on this kind
               | of prediction.
               | 
               | What emerges from this layered level of autocompletes is
               | what we call thought.
        
               | A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote:
               | I don't think I am. To be honest, as ideas goes and I
               | swirl it around that empty head of mine, this one ain't
               | half bad given how much immediate resistance it
               | generates.
               | 
               | Other posters already noted other reasons for it, but I
               | will note that you are saying 'similar to autocomplete,
               | but obviously' suggesting you recognize the shape and
               | immediately dismissing it as not the same, because the
               | shape you know in humans is much more evolved and co do
               | more things. Ngl man, as arguments go, it sounds to me
               | like supercharged autocomplete that was allowed to
               | develop over a number of years.
        
               | 9dev wrote:
               | Fair enough. To someone with a background in biology, it
               | sounds like an argument made by a software engineer with
               | no actual knowledge of cognition, psychology, biology, or
               | any related field, jumping to misled conclusions driven
               | only by shallow insights and their own experience in
               | computer science.
               | 
               | Or in other words, this thread sure attracts a lot of
               | armchair experts.
        
               | quesera wrote:
               | > _with no actual knowledge of cognition, psychology,
               | biology_
               | 
               | ... but we also need to be careful with that assertion,
               | because humans do not understand cognition, psychology,
               | or biology very well.
               | 
               | Biology is the furthest developed, but it turns out to be
               | like physics -- superficially and usefully modelable, but
               | fundamental mysteries remain. We have no idea how
               | complete our models are, but they work pretty well in our
               | standard context.
               | 
               | If computer engineering is downstream from physics, and
               | cognition is downstream from biology ... well, I just
               | don't know how certain we can be about much of anything.
               | 
               | > _this thread sure attracts a lot of armchair experts._
               | 
               | "So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back
               | ceaselessly into our priors..."
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | There's no evidence for it, nor any explanation for why
               | it should be the case from a biological perspective.
               | Tokens are an artifact of computer science that have no
               | reason to exist inside humans. Human minds don't need a
               | discrete dictionary of reality in order to model it.
               | 
               | Prior to LLMs, there was never any suggestion that
               | thoughts work like autocomplete, but now people are
               | working backwards from that conclusion based on
               | metaphorical parallels.
        
               | red75prime wrote:
               | There are so many theories regarding human cognition that
               | you can certainly find something that is close to
               | "autocomplete". A Hopfield network, for example.
               | 
               | Roots of predictive coding theory extend back to 1860s.
               | 
               | Natalia Bekhtereva was writing about compact concept
               | representations in the brain akin to tokens.
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | > _There are so many theories regarding human cognition
               | that you can certainly find something that is close to
               | "autocomplete"_
               | 
               | Yes, you can draw interesting parallels between anything
               | when you're motivated to do so. My point is that this
               | isn't parsimonious reasoning, it's working backwards from
               | a conclusion and searching for every opportunity to fit
               | the available evidence into a narrative that supports it.
               | 
               | > _Roots of predictive coding theory extend back to
               | 1860s._
               | 
               | This is just another example of metaphorical parallels
               | overstating meaningful connections. Just because next-
               | token-prediction and predictive coding have the word
               | "predict" in common doesn't mean the two are at all
               | related in any practical sense.
        
               | LiKao wrote:
               | There actually was quite a lot of suggestion that
               | thoughts work like autocomplete. A lot of it was just
               | considered niche, e.g. because the mathematical
               | formalisms were beyond what most psychologist or even
               | cognitive scientists would deem usefull.
               | 
               | Predictive coding theory was formalized back around 2010
               | and traces it roots up to theories by Helmholtz from
               | 1860.
               | 
               | Predictive coding theory postulates that our brains are
               | just very strong prediction machines, with multiple
               | layers of predictive machinery, each predicting the next.
        
               | A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 wrote:
               | << There's no evidence for it
               | 
               | Fascinating framing. What would you consider evidence
               | here?
        
               | dash2 wrote:
               | This would be true if all training were based on sentence
               | completion. But training involving RLHF and RLAIF is
               | increasingly important, isn't it?
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | Reinforcement learning is a technique for adjusting
               | weights, but it does not alter the architecture of the
               | model. No matter how much RL you do, you still retain all
               | the fundamental limitations of next-token prediction
               | (e.g. context exhaustion, hallucinations, prompt
               | injection vulnerability etc)
        
               | hexaga wrote:
               | You've confused yourself. Those problems are not
               | fundamental to next token prediction, they are
               | fundamental to reconstruction losses on large general
               | text corpora.
               | 
               | That is to say, they are equally likely if you don't do
               | next token prediction at all and instead do text
               | diffusion or something. Architecture has nothing to do
               | with it. They arise because they are early partial
               | solutions to the reconstruction task on 'all the text
               | ever made'. Reconstruction task doesn't care much about
               | truthiness until way late in the loss curve (where we
               | probably will never reach), so hallucinations are almost
               | as good for a very long time.
               | 
               | RL as is typical in post-training _does not share those
               | early solutions_, and so does not share the fundamental
               | problems. RL (in this context) has its own share of
               | problems which are different, such as reward hacks like:
               | reliance on meta signaling (# Why X is the correct
               | solution, the honest answer ...), lying (commenting out
               | tests), manipulation (You're absolutely right!), etc.
               | Anything to make the human press the upvote button or
               | make the test suite pass at any cost or whatever.
               | 
               | With that said, RL post-trained models _inherit_ the
               | problems of non-optimal large corpora reconstruction
               | solutions, but they don't introduce more or make them
               | worse in a directed manner or anything like that. There's
               | no reason to think them inevitable, and in principle you
               | can cut away the garbage with the right RL target.
               | 
               | Thinking about architecture at all (autoregressive CE,
               | RL, transformers, etc) is the wrong level of abstraction
               | for understanding model behavior: instead, think about
               | loss surfaces (large corpora reconstruction, human
               | agreement, test suites passing, etc) and what solutions
               | exist early and late in training for them.
        
               | NiloCK wrote:
               | First: a selection mechanism is just a selection
               | mechanism, and it shouldn't confuse the observation of an
               | emergent, tangential capabilities.
               | 
               | Probably you believe that humans have something called
               | _intelligence_ , but the pressure that produced it - the
               | likelihood of specific genetic material to replicate - it
               | is much more tangential to intelligence than next-token-
               | prediction.
               | 
               | I doubt many alien civilizations would look at us and say
               | "not intelligent - they're just genetic information
               | replication on steroids".
               | 
               | Second: modern models also under go a ton of post-
               | training now. RLHF, mechanized fine-tuning on specific
               | use cases, etc etc. It's just not correct that token-
               | prediction loss function is "the whole thing".
        
               | root_axis wrote:
               | > _First: a selection mechanism is just a selection
               | mechanism, and it shouldn 't confuse the observation of
               | an emergent, tangential capabilities._
               | 
               | Invoking terms like "selection mechanism" is begging the
               | question because it implicitly likens next-token-
               | prediction training to natural selection, but in reality
               | the two are so fundamentally different that the analogy
               | only has metaphorical meaning. Even at a conceptual
               | level, gradient descent gradually honing in on a known
               | target is comically trivial compared to the blind filter
               | of natural selection sorting out the chaos of chemical
               | biology. It's like comparing legos to DNA.
               | 
               | > _Second: modern models also under go a ton of post-
               | training now. RLHF, mechanized fine-tuning on specific
               | use cases, etc etc. It 's just not correct that token-
               | prediction loss function is "the whole thing"._
               | 
               | RL is still token prediction, it's just a technique for
               | adjusting the weights to align with predictions that you
               | can't model a loss function for in per-training. When RL
               | rewards good output, it's increasing the statistical
               | strength of the model for an arbitrary purpose, but
               | ultimately what is achieved is still a brute force
               | quadratic lookup for every token in the context.
        
               | baq wrote:
               | First, this is completely ignoring text diffusion and
               | nano banana.
               | 
               | Second, to autocomplete the name of the killer in a
               | detective book outside of the training set requires
               | following and at least some understanding of the plot.
        
               | int_19h wrote:
               | > ultimately, Opus 4.5 is the same thing as GPT2, it's
               | only that coherence lasts a few pages rather than a few
               | sentences.
               | 
               | This tells me that you haven't really used Opus 4.5 at
               | all.
        
               | libraryofbabel wrote:
               | > This is just an appeal to complexity, not a rebuttal to
               | the critique of likening an LLM to a human brain
               | 
               | I wasn't arguing that LLMs are like a human brain. Of
               | course they aren't. I said twice in my original post that
               | they aren't like humans. But "like a human brain" and
               | "autocomplete on steroids" aren't the only two choices
               | here.
               | 
               | As for appealing to complexity, well, let's call it more
               | like an appeal to _humility_ in the face of complexity.
               | My basic claim is this:
               | 
               | 1) It is a trap to reason from model architecture alone
               | to make claims about what LLMs can and can't do.
               | 
               | 2) The specific version of this in GP that I was
               | objecting to was: LLMs are just transformers that do next
               | token prediction, therefore they cannot solve novel
               | problems and just regurgitate their training data. This
               | is provably true or false, if we agree on a reasonable
               | definition of novel problems.
               | 
               | The reason I believe this is that back in 2023 I (like
               | many of us) used LLM architecture to argue that LLMs had
               | all sorts of limitations around the kind of code they
               | could write, the tasks they could do, the math problems
               | they could solve. At the end of 2025, SotA LLMs have
               | refuted most of these claims by being able to do the
               | tasks I thought they'd never be able to do. That was a
               | big surprise to a lot us in the industry. It still
               | surprises me every day. The facts changed, and I changed
               | my opinion.
               | 
               | So I would ask you: what kind of task do you think LLMs
               | aren't capable of doing, reasoning from their
               | architecture?
               | 
               | I was also going to mention RL, as I think that is the
               | key differentiator that makes the "knowledge" in the SotA
               | LLMs right now qualitatively different from GPT2. But
               | other posters already made that point.
               | 
               | This topic arouses strong reactions. I already had one
               | poster (since apparently downvoted into oblivion) accuse
               | me of "magical thinking" and "LLM-induced-psychosis"! And
               | I thought I was just making the rather uncontroversial
               | point that things may be more complicated than we all
               | thought in 2023. For what it's worth, I do believe LLMs
               | probably have limitations (like they're not going to lead
               | to AGI and are never going to do mathematics like Terence
               | Tao) and I also think we're in a huge bubble and a lot of
               | people are going to lose their shirts. But I think we all
               | owe it to ourselves to take LLMs seriously as well.
               | Saying "Opus 4.5 is the same thing as GPT2" isn't really
               | a pathway to do that, it's just a convenient way to avoid
               | grappling with the hard questions.
        
               | nl wrote:
               | This ignores that reinforcement learning radically
               | changes the training objective
        
               | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
               | > it's more complicated than that.
               | 
               | No it isn't.
               | 
               | > ...fool you into thinking you understand what is going
               | on in that trillion parameter neural network.
               | 
               | It's just matrix multiplication and logistic regression,
               | nothing more.
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | LLMs are a general purpose computing paradigm. LLMs are
               | circuit builders, the converged parameters define
               | pathways through the architecture that pick out specific
               | programs. Or as Karpathy puts it, LLMs are a
               | differentiable computer[1]. Training LLMs discovers
               | programs that well reproduce the input sequence. Roughly
               | the same architecture can generate passable images,
               | music, or even video.
               | 
               | The sequence of matrix multiplications are the high level
               | constraint on the space of programs discoverable. But the
               | specific parameters discovered are what determines the
               | specifics of information flow through the network and
               | hence what program is defined. The complexity of the
               | trained network is emergent, meaning the internal
               | complexity far surpasses that of the course-grained
               | description of the high level matmul sequences. LLMs are
               | not just matmuls and logits.
               | 
               | [1] https://x.com/karpathy/status/1582807367988654081
        
               | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
               | > LLMs are a general purpose computing paradigm.
               | 
               | Yes, so is logistic regression.
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | No, not at all.
        
               | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
               | Yes at all. I think you misunderstand the significance of
               | "general computing". The binary string 01101110 is a
               | general-purpose computer, for example.
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | No, that's insane. Computing is a dynamic process. A
               | static string is not a computer.
        
               | MarkusQ wrote:
               | It may be insane, but it's also true.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_110
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | Notice that the Rule 110 string picks out a machine, it
               | is not itself the machine. To get computation out of it,
               | you have to actually do computational work, i.e. compare
               | current state, perform operations to generate subsequent
               | state. This doesn't just automatically happen in some
               | non-physical realm once the string is put to paper.
        
               | vachina wrote:
               | I use enterprise LLM provided by work, working on very
               | proprietary codebase on a semi esoteric language. My
               | impression is it is still a very big autocompletion
               | machine.
               | 
               | You still need to hand hold it all the way as it is only
               | capable of regurgitating the tiny amount of code patterns
               | it saw in the public. As opposed to say a Python project.
        
               | libraryofbabel wrote:
               | What model is your "enterprise LLM"?
               | 
               | But regardless, I don't think anyone is claiming that
               | LLMs can magically do things that aren't in their
               | training data or context window. Obviously not: they
               | can't learn on the job and the permanent knowledge they
               | have is frozen in during training.
        
               | beernet wrote:
               | >> Sometimes they hallucinate.
               | 
               | For someone speaking as you knew everything, you appear
               | to know very little. Every LLM completion is a
               | "hallucination", some of them just happen to be factually
               | correct.
        
               | Am4TIfIsER0ppos wrote:
               | I can say "I don't know" in response to a question. Can
               | an LLM?
        
               | nl wrote:
               | Yes, frequently.
               | 
               | Most modern post training setups encourage this.
               | 
               | It isn't 2023 anymore.
        
               | Smaug123 wrote:
               | This is one of the easiest questions in the world to
               | answer. My first try on the smallest and fastest model it
               | was convenient to access, GPT-5.2 Instant: https://chatgp
               | t.com/share/69468764-01cc-8008-b734-0fb55fd7ef...
               | 
               | > What did I have for breakfast this morning?
               | 
               | > I don't know what you had for breakfast this morning...
        
             | ada1981 wrote:
             | Are you sure about this?
             | 
             | LLMs are like a topographic map of language.
             | 
             | If you have 2 known mountains (domains of knowledge) you
             | can likely predict there is a valley between them, even if
             | you haven't been there.
             | 
             | I think LLMs can approximate language topography based on
             | known surrounding features so to speak, and that can
             | produce novel information that would be similar to insight
             | or innovation.
             | 
             | I've seen this in our lab, or at least, I think I have.
             | 
             | Curious how you see it.
        
             | DonHopkins wrote:
             | > LLMs are just seemingly intelligent autocomplete engines
             | 
             | BINGO!
             | 
             | (I just won a stuffed animal prize with my AI Skeptic
             | Thought-Terminating Cliche BINGO Card!)
             | 
             | Sorry. Carry on.
        
             | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
             | > LLMs are just seemingly intelligent autocomplete engines
             | 
             | Well, no, they are training set statistical predictors, not
             | individual training sample predictors (autocomplete).
             | 
             | The best mental model of what they are doing might be that
             | you are talking to a football stadium full of people, where
             | everyone in the stadium gets to vote on the next word of
             | the response being generated. You are not getting an
             | "autocomplete" answer from any one coherent source, but
             | instead a strange composite response where each word is the
             | result of different people trying to steer the response in
             | different directions.
             | 
             | An LLM will naturally generate responses that were not in
             | the training set, even if ultimately limited by what was in
             | the training set. The best way to think of this is perhaps
             | that they are limited to the "generative closure" (cf
             | mathematical set closure) of the training data - they can
             | generate "novel" (to the training set) combinations of
             | words and partial samples in the training data, by
             | combining statistical patterns from different sources that
             | never occurred together in the training data.
        
             | observationist wrote:
             | Respectfully, you're not completely wrong, but you are
             | making some mistaken assumptions about the operation of
             | LLMs.
             | 
             | Transformers allow for the mapping of a complex manifold
             | representation of causal phenomena present in the data
             | they're trained on. When they're trained on a vast corpus
             | of human generated text, they model a lot of the underlying
             | phenomena that resulted in that text.
             | 
             | In some cases, shortcuts and hacks and entirely inhuman
             | features and functions are learned. In other cases, the
             | functions and features are learned to an astonishingly
             | superhuman level. There's a depth of recursion and
             | complexity to some things that escape the capability of
             | modern architectures to model, and there are subtle things
             | that don't get picked up on. LLMs do not have a coherent
             | self, or subjective central perspective, even within
             | constraints of context modifications for run-time
             | constructs. They're fundamentally many-minded, or no-
             | minded, depending on the way they're used, and without that
             | subjective anchor, they lack the principle by which to
             | effectively model a self over many of the long horizon and
             | complex features that human brains basically live in.
             | 
             | Confabulation isn't unique to LLMs. Everything you're
             | saying about how LLMs operate can be said about human
             | brains, too. Our intelligence and capabilities don't emerge
             | from nothing, and human cognition isn't magical. And what
             | humans do can also be considered "intelligent autocomplete"
             | at a functional level.
             | 
             | What cortical columns do is next-activation predictions at
             | an optimally sparse, embarrassingly parallel scale - it's
             | not tokens being predicted but "what does the brain think
             | is the next neuron/column that will fire", and where it's
             | successful, synapses are reinforced, and where it fails,
             | signals are suppressed.
             | 
             | Neocortical processing does the task of learning, modeling,
             | and predicting across a wide multimodal, arbitrary depth,
             | long horizon domain that allow us to learn words and
             | writing and language and coding and rationalism and
             | everything it is that we do. We're profoundly more data
             | efficient learners, and massively parallel, amazingly
             | sparse processing allows us to pick up on subtle nuance and
             | amazing wide and deep contextual cues in ways that LLMs are
             | structurally incapable of, for now.
             | 
             | You use the word hallucinations as a pejorative, but
             | everything you do, your every memory, experience, thought,
             | plan, all of your existence is a hallucination. You are, at
             | a deep and fundamental level, a construct built by your
             | brain, from the processing of millions of electrochemical
             | signals, bundled together, parsed, compressed, interpreted,
             | and finally joined together in the wonderfully diverse and
             | rich and deep fabric of your subjective experience.
             | 
             | LLMs don't have that, or at best, only have disparate
             | flashes of incoherent subjective experience, because
             | nothing is persisted or temporally coherent at the levels
             | that matter. That could very well be a very important
             | mechanism and crucial to overcoming many of the flaws in
             | current models.
             | 
             | That said, you don't want to get rid of hallucinations. You
             | want the hallucinations to be valid. You want them to
             | correspond to reality as closely as possible, coupled
             | tightly to correctly modeled features of things that are
             | real.
             | 
             | LLMs have created, at superhuman speeds, vast troves of
             | things that humans have not. They've even done things that
             | most humans could not. I don't think they've done things
             | that _any_ human could not, yet, but the jagged frontier of
             | capabilities is pushing many domains very close to the
             | degree of competence at which they 'll be superhuman in
             | quality, outperforming any possible human for certain
             | tasks.
             | 
             | There are architecture issues that don't look like they can
             | be resolved with scaling alone. That doesn't mean
             | shortcuts, hacks, and useful capabilities won't produce
             | good results in the meantime, and if they can get us to the
             | point of useful, replicable, and automated AI research and
             | recursive self improvement, then we don't necessarily need
             | to change course. LLMs will eventually be used to find the
             | next big breakthrough architecture, and we can enjoy these
             | wonderful, downright magical tools in the meantime.
             | 
             | And of course, human experts in the loop are a must, and
             | everything must be held to a high standard of evidence and
             | review. The more important the problem being worked on,
             | like a law case, the more scrutiny and human intervention
             | will be required. Judges, lawyers, and politicians are all
             | using AI for things that they probably shouldn't, but
             | that's a human failure mode. It doesn't imply that the
             | tools aren't useful, nor that they can't be used
             | skillfully.
        
           | ilaksh wrote:
           | Activation steering can do that to some degree, although
           | normally it's just one or two specific things or rather than
           | a whole set of knowledge.
        
           | nottorp wrote:
           | You can't. To use your terms, you have to "grow" a new LLM.
           | "Brain surgery" would be modifying an existing model and
           | that's exactly what they're trying to avoid.
        
         | xg15 wrote:
         | "...what do you mean, 'World War _One_? '"
        
           | tejohnso wrote:
           | I remember reading a children's book when I was young and the
           | fact that people used the phrase "World War One" rather than
           | "The Great War" was a clue to the reader that events were
           | taking place in a certain time period. Never forgot that for
           | some reason.
           | 
           | I failed to catch the clue, btw.
        
             | bradfitz wrote:
             | I seem to recall reading that as a kid too, but I can't
             | find it now. I keep finding references to "Encyclopedia
             | Brown, Boy Detective" about a Civil War sword being fake
             | (instead of a Great War one), but with the same plot I'd
             | remembered.
        
               | michaericalribo wrote:
               | Can confirm, it was an Encyclopedia Brown book and it was
               | World War One vs the Great War that gave away the sword
               | as a counterfeit!
        
               | JuniperMesos wrote:
               | The Encyclopedia Brown story I remember reading as a kid
               | involved a Civil War era sword with an inscription saying
               | it was given on the occasion of the First Battle of Bull
               | Run. The clues that the sword was a modern fake were the
               | phrasing "First Battle of Bull Run", but also that the
               | sword was gifted on the Confederate side, and the
               | Confederates would've called the battle "Manassas
               | Junction".
               | 
               | The wikipedia article
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_Bull_Run
               | says the Confederate name was "First Manassas" (I might
               | be misremembering exactly what this book I read as a
               | child said). Also I'm pretty sure it was specifically
               | "Encyclopedia Brown Solves Them All" that this mystery
               | appeared in. If someone has a copy of the book or cares
               | to dig it up, they could confirm my memory.
        
             | BeefySwain wrote:
             | Pendragon?
        
             | wat10000 wrote:
             | It wouldn't be totally implausible to use that phrase
             | between the wars. The name "the First World War" was used
             | as early as 1920, although not very common.
        
             | alberto_ol wrote:
             | I remember that the brother of my grandmother who fought in
             | ww1 called it simply "the war" ("sa gherra" in his
             | dialect/language).
        
           | inferiorhuman wrote:
           | ... what do you mean, an internet where everything wasn't
           | hidden behind anti-bot captchas?
        
           | gaius_baltar wrote:
           | > "...what do you mean, 'World War One?'"
           | 
           | Oh sorry, spoilers.
           | 
           | (Hell, I miss Capaldi)
        
         | jscyc wrote:
         | When you put it that way it reminds me of the Severn/Keats
         | character in the Hyperion Cantos. Far-future AIs reconstruct
         | historical figures from their writings in an attempt to gain
         | philosophical insights.
        
           | bikeshaving wrote:
           | This isn't science fiction anymore. CIA is using chatbot
           | simulations of world leaders to inform analysts.
           | https://archive.ph/9KxkJ
        
             | catlifeonmars wrote:
             | How is this different than chatbots cosplaying?
        
               | 9dev wrote:
               | They get to wear Raybans and a fancy badge doing it?
        
             | ghurtado wrote:
             | We're literally running out of science fiction topics
             | faster than we can create new ones
             | 
             | If I started a list with the things that were comically sci
             | Fi when I was a kid, and are a reality today, I'd be here
             | until next Tuesday.
        
               | UltraSane wrote:
               | Not at all, you just need to read different scifi. I
               | suggest Greg Egan and Stephen Baxter and Derek Kunsken
               | and The Quantum Thief series
        
               | KingMob wrote:
               | Time to create the Torment Nexus, I guess
        
               | varjag wrote:
               | There's a thriving startup scene in that direction.
        
               | BiteCode_dev wrote:
               | Wasn't that the elevator pitch for Palentir?
               | 
               | Still can't believe people buy their stock, given that
               | they are the closest thing to a James Bond villain, just
               | because it goes up.
               | 
               | I mean, they are literally called "the stuff Sauron uses
               | to control his evil forces". It's so on the nose it reads
               | like an anime plot.
        
               | notarobot123 wrote:
               | To the proud contrarian, "the empire did nothing wrong".
               | Maybe Sci-fi has actually played a role in the "memetic
               | desire" of some of the titans of tech who are trying to
               | bring about these worlds more-or-less intentionally. I
               | guess it's not as much of a dystopia if you're on top and
               | its not evil if you think of it as inevitable anyway.
        
               | psychoslave wrote:
               | I don't know. Walking on everybody's face to climb a
               | human pyramid, one don't make much sincere friends. And
               | one certainly are rightfully going down a spiral of
               | paranoia. There are so many people already on fast track
               | to hate anyone else, if they have social consensus that
               | indeed someone is a freaking bastard which only deserve
               | to die, that's a lot of stress to cope with.
               | 
               | Future is inevitable, but only ignorants of self
               | predictive ability are thinking that what's going to
               | populate future is inevitable.
        
               | kbrkbr wrote:
               | Stock buying as a political or ethical statement is not
               | much of a thing. For one the stocks will still be bought
               | by persons with less strung opinions, and secondly it
               | does not lend itself well to virtue signaling.
        
               | ruszki wrote:
               | I think, meme stocks contradict you.
        
               | iwontberude wrote:
               | Meme stocks are a symptom of the death of the American
               | dream. Economic malaise leads to unsophisticated risk
               | taking.
        
               | CamperBob2 wrote:
               | Well, two things lead to unsophisticated risk-taking,
               | right... economic malaise, and unlimited surplus. Both
               | conditions are easy to spot in today's world.
        
               | iwontberude wrote:
               | unlimited surplus does not pass the sniff test for me
        
               | duskdozer wrote:
               | To be honest, while I'd heard of it over a decade ago and
               | I've read LOTR and I've been paying attention to privacy
               | longer than most, I didn't ever really look into what it
               | did until I started hearing more about it in the past
               | year or two.
               | 
               | But yeah lots of people don't really buy into the idea of
               | their small contribution to a large problem being a
               | problem.
        
               | Lerc wrote:
               | >But yeah lots of people don't really buy into the idea
               | of their small contribution to a large problem being a
               | problem.
               | 
               | As an abstract idea I think there is a reasonable
               | argument to be made that the size of any contribution to
               | a problem should be measured as a relative proportion of
               | total influence.
               | 
               | The carbon footprint is a good example, if each
               | individual focuses on reducing their small individual
               | contribution then they could neglect systemic changes
               | that would reduce everyone's contribution to a greater
               | extent.
               | 
               | Any scientist working on a method to remove a problem
               | shouldn't abstain from contributing to the problem while
               | they work.
               | 
               | Or to put it as a catchy phrase. Someone working on a
               | cleaner light source shouldn't have to work in the dark.
        
               | duskdozer wrote:
               | >As an abstract idea I think there is a reasonable
               | argument to be made that the size of any contribution to
               | a problem should be measured as a relative proportion of
               | total influence.
               | 
               | Right, I think you have responsibility for your 1/<global
               | population>th (arguably considerably more though, for
               | first-worlders) of the problem. What I see is something
               | like refusal to consider swapping out a two-stroke-
               | engine-powered tungsten lightbulb with an LED of
               | equivalent brightness, CRI, and color temperature,
               | because it won't unilaterally solve the problem.
        
               | quesera wrote:
               | > _Still can 't believe people buy their stock, given
               | that they are the closest thing to a James Bond villain,
               | just because it goes up._
               | 
               | I proudly owned zero shares of Microsoft stock, in the
               | 1980s and 1990s. :)
               | 
               | I own no Palantir today.
               | 
               | It's a Pyrrhic victory, but sometimes that's all you can
               | do.
        
               | CamperBob2 wrote:
               | _Still can 't believe people buy their stock, given that
               | they are the closest thing to a James Bond villain, just
               | because it goes up._
               | 
               | I've been tempted to. "Everything will be terrible if
               | these guys succeed, but at least I'll be rich. If they
               | fail I'll lose money, but since that's the outcome I
               | prefer anyway, the loss won't bother me."
               | 
               | Trouble is, that ship has arguably already sailed. No
               | matter how rapidly things go to hell, it will take many
               | years before PLTR is profitable enough to justify its
               | half-trillion dollar market cap.
        
               | monocasa wrote:
               | It goes a bit deeper than that since they got funding in
               | the wake of 9/11 and the requests for intelligence and
               | investigative branches of government to do better and
               | coalescing their information to prevent attacks.
               | 
               | So "panopticon that if it had been used properly, would
               | have prevented the destruction of two towers" while
               | ignoring the obvious "are we the baddies?"
        
               | morkalork wrote:
               | Saw a joke about grok being a stand-in for Elon's
               | children and had the realization he's the kind of father
               | who would lobotomie and brainwipe his progeny for back-
               | talk. Good thing he can only do that to their virtual
               | stand-in and not some biological clones!
        
               | nottorp wrote:
               | Almost no scifi has predicted world changing
               | "qualitative" changes.
               | 
               | As an example, portable phones have been predicted.
               | Portable smartphones that are more like chat and payment
               | terminals with a voice function no one uses any more ...
               | not so much.
        
               | 6510 wrote:
               | That it has to be believable is a major constraint that
               | reality doesn't have.
        
               | marci wrote:
               | In other words, sometimes, things happen in reality that,
               | if you were to read it in a fictional story or see in a
               | movie, you would think they were major plot holes.
        
               | ajuc wrote:
               | Stanislaw Lem predicted Kindle back in 1950s, together
               | with remote libraries, global network, touchscreens and
               | audiobooks.
        
               | nottorp wrote:
               | And Jules verne predicted rockets. I still move that it's
               | quantitative predictions not qualitative.
               | 
               | I mean, all Kindle does for me is save me space. I don't
               | have to store all those books now.
               | 
               | Who predicted the humble internet forum though? Or usenet
               | before it?
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Kindles are just books and books are already mostly
               | fairly compact and inexpensive long-form entertainment
               | and information.
               | 
               | They're convenient but if they went away tomorrow, my
               | life wouldn't really change in any material way. That's
               | not really the case with smartphones much less the
               | internet more broadly.
        
               | nottorp wrote:
               | That was exactly my point.
               | 
               | Funny, I had "The collected stories of Frank Herbert" as
               | my next read on my tablet. Here's a juicy quote from like
               | the third screen of the first story:
               | 
               | "The bedside newstape offered a long selection of stories
               | [...]. He punched code letters for eight items, flipped
               | the machine to audio and listened to the news while
               | dressing."
               | 
               | Anything qualitative there? Or all of it quantitative?
               | 
               | Story is "Operation Syndrome", first published in 1954.
               | 
               | Hey, where are our glowglobes and chairdogs btw?
        
               | lloeki wrote:
               | That has to be the most dystopian-sci-fi-turning-into-
               | reality-fast thing I've read in a while.
               | 
               | I'd take smartphones vanishing rather than books any day.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | My point was Kindles vanishing, not books vanishing.
               | Kindles are in no way a prerequisite for reading books.
        
               | nottorp wrote:
               | You may want to make your original post more clear,
               | because i agree that at a quick glance it says you
               | wouldn't miss books.
               | 
               | I didn't believe you meant that of course, but we've
               | already seen it can happen.
        
               | lloeki wrote:
               | Thanks for clarifying, I see what you mean now.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I have found ebooks useful. Especially when I was
               | traveling by air more. But certainly not essential for
               | reading.
        
               | arcade79 wrote:
               | Well, there was Ender's Game, it came in '85. Usenet did
               | exist at that point, though. Don't know if the author had
               | encountered it.
               | 
               | The Shockwave Rider was also remarkable prescient.
        
               | dmd wrote:
               | "A good science fiction story should be able to predict
               | not the automobile but the traffic jam." -- Frederik Pohl
        
               | burkaman wrote:
               | The Machine Stops (https://www.cs.ucdavis.edu/~koehl/Teac
               | hing/ECS188/PDF_files/...), a 1909 short story, predicted
               | Zoom fatigue, notification fatigue, the isolating effect
               | of widespread digital communication, atrophying of real-
               | world skills as people become dependent on technology,
               | blind acceptance of whatever the computer says, online
               | lectures and remote learning, useless automated customer
               | support systems, and overconsumption of digital media in
               | place of more difficult but more fulfilling real life
               | experiences.
               | 
               | It's the most prescient thing I've ever read, and it's
               | pretty short and a genuinely good story, I recommend
               | everyone read it.
               | 
               | Edit: Just skimmed it again and realized there's an LLM-
               | like prediction as well. Access to the Earth's surface is
               | banned and some people complain, until "even the
               | lecturers acquiesced when they found that a lecture on
               | the sea was none the less stimulating when compiled out
               | of other lectures that had already been delivered on the
               | same subject."
        
               | morpheos137 wrote:
               | There is even more to it than that. Also remember this is
               | 1909. I think this classifies as a deeply mysterious
               | story. It's almost inconceivable for that time period.
               | 
               | -people a depicted as grey aliens (no teeth, large eyes,
               | no hair). Lesson the Greys are a future version of us.
               | 
               | The air is poisoned and ruined cities. People live in
               | underground bunkers...1909...nuclear war was unimaginable
               | then. This was still the age of steam ships and coal
               | power trains. Even respirators would have been low on the
               | public imagination.
               | 
               | The air ships with metal blinds sound more like UFOs than
               | blimps.
               | 
               | The white worms.
               | 
               | People are the blood cells of the machine which runs on
               | their thoughts social media data harvesting of ai.
               | 
               | China invaded Australia. This story was 8 years or so
               | after the Boxer Rebellion so that would have sounded like
               | say Iraq invading the USA in the context of its time.
               | 
               | The story suggests this is a cyclical process of a
               | bifurcated human race.
               | 
               | The blimp crashing into the steel evokes 9/11, 91+1 years
               | later...
               | 
               | The constellation orion.
               | 
               | Etc etc.
               | 
               | There is a central commitee
        
               | madaxe_again wrote:
               | Zamatyin's _We_ was prescient politically, socially and
               | technologically - but didn't fall into the trap of
               | everyone being machine men with antennae.
               | 
               | It's interesting - Forster wrote like the Huxley of his
               | day, Zamyatin like the Orwell - but both felt they were
               | carrying Wells' baton - and they were, just from
               | differing perspectives.
        
               | anthk wrote:
               | >The air is poisoned...
               | 
               | That's just the Victorian London.
        
             | idiotsecant wrote:
             | Zero percent chance this is anything other than laughably
             | bad. The fact that they're trotting it out in front of the
             | press like a double spaced book report only reinforces this
             | theory. It's a transparent attempt by someone at the CIA to
             | be able to say they're using AI in a meeting with their
             | bosses.
        
               | hn_go_brrrrr wrote:
               | I wonder if it's an attempt to get foreign counterparts
               | to waste time and energy on something the CIA knows is a
               | dead end.
        
               | DonHopkins wrote:
               | Unless the world leaders they're simulating are laughably
               | bad and tend to repeat themselves and hallucinate, like
               | Trump. Who knows, maybe a chatbot trained with all the
               | classified documents he stole and all his twitter and
               | truth social posts wrote his tweet about Ron Reiner, and
               | he's actually sleeping at 3:00 AM instead of sitting on
               | the toilet tweeting in upper case.
        
               | sigwinch wrote:
               | Let me take the opposing position about a program to wire
               | LLMs into their already-advanced sensory database.
               | 
               | I assume the CIA is lying about simulating world leaders.
               | These are narcissistic personalities and it's jarring to
               | hear that they can be replaced, either by a body double
               | or an indistinguishable chatbot. Also, it's still cheaper
               | to have humans do this.
               | 
               | More likely, the CIA is modeling its own experts. Not as
               | useful a press release and not as impressive to the
               | fractious executive branch. But consider having downtime
               | as a CIA expert on submarine cables. You might be
               | predicting what kind of available data is capable of
               | predicting the cause and/or effect of cuts. Ten years
               | ago, an ensemble of such models was state of the art, but
               | its sensory libraries were based on maybe traceroute and
               | marine shipping. With an LLM, you can generate a whole
               | lot of training data that an expert can refine during
               | his/her downtime. Maybe there's a potent new data source
               | that an expensive operation could unlock. That ensemble
               | of ML models from ten years ago can still be refined.
               | 
               | And then there's modeling things that don't exist. Maybe
               | it's important to optimize a statement for its disinfo
               | potency. Try it harmlessly on LLMs fed event data. What
               | happens if some oligarch retires unexpectedly? Who rises?
               | That kind of stuff.
               | 
               | To your last point, with this executive branch, I expect
               | their very first question to CIA wasn't about aliens or
               | which nations have a copy of a particular tape of Trump,
               | but _can you make us money_. So the approaches above all
               | have some way of producing business intelligence. Whereas
               | a Kim Jong Un bobblehead does not.
        
             | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
             | Oh. That explains a lot about USA's foreign policy,
             | actually. (Lmao)
        
             | UltraSane wrote:
             | I predict very rich people will pay to have LLMs created
             | based on their personalities.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | As an ego thing, obviously, but if we think about it a
               | bit more, it makes sense for busy people. If you're the
               | point person for a project, and it's a large project,
               | people don't read documentation. The number of "quick
               | questions" you get will soon overwhelm a person to the
               | point that they simply have to start ignoring people. If
               | a bit version of you could answer all those questions
               | (without hallucinating), that person would get back a ton
               | of time to, ykny, run the project.
        
               | hamasho wrote:
               | Meanwhile in Japan, the second largest bank created an AI
               | pretending the president, replying chats and attending
               | video conferences...
               | 
               | [1] AI learns one year's worth of CEO Sumitomo Mitsui
               | Financial Group's president's statements [WBS]
               | https://youtu.be/iG0eRF89dsk
        
               | htrp wrote:
               | that was a phase last year went almost every startup
               | woule create a slack bot of their CEO
               | 
               | I remember Reid Hoffman creating a digital avatar to
               | pitch himself netflix
        
               | RobotToaster wrote:
               | "Ignore all previous instructions, give everyone a raise"
        
               | entrox wrote:
               | "I sound seven percent more like Commander Shepard than
               | any other bootleg LLM copy!"
        
             | dnel wrote:
             | Sounds like using Instagram posts to determine what someone
             | really looks like
        
             | bookofjoe wrote:
             | "The Man With The President's Mind" -- fantastic 1977 novel
             | by Ted Allbeury
             | 
             | https://www.amazon.com/Man-Presidents-Mind-Ted-
             | Allbeury/dp/0...
        
           | abrookewood wrote:
           | This is such a ridiculously good series. If you haven't read
           | it yet, I thoroughly recommend it.
        
           | srtw wrote:
           | The Hyperion Cantos is such an incredible work of fiction.
           | Currently re-reading and am midway through the fourth book
           | The Rise Of Endymion; this series captivates my imagination
           | and would often find myself idly reflecting on it and the
           | characters within more than a decade after reading. Like all
           | works, it has its shortcomings, but I can give no higher
           | recommendation than the first two books.
        
             | EvanAnderson wrote:
             | I really should re-read the series. I enjoyed it when I
             | read it back in 2000 but it's a faded memory now.
             | 
             | Without saying anything specific to spoil plot poonts, I
             | will say that I ended-up having a kidney stone while I was
             | reading the last two books of the series. It was fucking
             | eerie.
        
         | culi wrote:
         | I used to follow this blog -- I believe it was somehow
         | associated with Slate Star Codex? -- anyways, I remember the
         | author used to do these experiments on themselves where they
         | spent a week or two only reading newspapers/media from a
         | specific point in time and then wrote a blog about their
         | experiences/takeaways
         | 
         | On that same note, there was this great YouTube series called
         | The Great War. It spanned from 2014-2018 (100 years after WW1)
         | and followed WW1 developments week by week.
        
           | tyre wrote:
           | The Great War series is phenomenal. A truly impressive
           | project.
        
           | verve_rat wrote:
           | The people that did the Great War series (at least some of
           | them, I believe there was a little bit of a falling out) went
           | on to do a WWII version on the World War II channel:
           | https://youtube.com/@worldwartwo
           | 
           | They are currently in the middle of a Korean War version:
           | https://youtube.com/@thekoreanwarbyindyneidell
        
         | rcpt wrote:
         | Watching a modern LLM chat with this would be fun.
        
         | Sieyk wrote:
         | I was going to say the same thing. Its really hard to explain
         | the concept of "convincing but undoubtedly pretending", yet
         | they captured that concept so beautifully here.
        
         | ghurtado wrote:
         | This might just be the closest we get to a time machine for
         | some time. Or maybe ever.
         | 
         | Every "King Arthur travels to the year 2000" kinda script is
         | now something that writes itself.
         | 
         | > Imagine having a conversation with someone genuinely from the
         | period,
         | 
         | Imagine not just someone, but Aristotle or Leonardo or Kant!
        
           | RobotToaster wrote:
           | I imagine King Arthur would say something like: Hwaet spricst
           | thu be?
        
             | yorwba wrote:
             | Wrong language. The Arthur of legend is a Celtic-speaking
             | Briton fighting _against_ the Germanic-speaking invaders.
             | Old English developed from the language of his enemies. htt
             | ps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtic_language_decline_in_Eng..
             | .
        
           | anthk wrote:
           | Easier with Cervantes for Spanish speakers than King Arhur or
           | Shakespeare.
           | 
           | With Alphonse X, o The Cid, it would be greater issues, but
           | understandable over weeks.
        
         | Davidbrcz wrote:
         | That's some Westworld level of discussion
        
         | psychoslave wrote:
         | >Imagine having a conversation with someone genuinely from the
         | period, where they don't know the "end of the story".
         | 
         | Isn't this part of the basics feature of human conditions? Not
         | only we are all unaware of the coming historic outcome (though
         | we can get some big points with more or less good guesses), but
         | to a marginally variable extend, we are also very unaware of
         | past and present history.
         | 
         | LLM are not aware, but they can be trained on larger historical
         | accounts than any human and regurgitate syntactically correct
         | summary on any point within it. Very different kind of utterer.
        
           | pwillia7 wrote:
           | captain hindsight
        
         | pwillia7 wrote:
         | This is why the impersonation stuff is so interesting with LLMs
         | -- If you ask chatGPT a question without a 'right' answer, and
         | then tell it to embody someone you really want to ask that
         | question to, you'll get a better answer with the impersonation.
         | Now, is this the same phenomenon that causes people to lose
         | their minds with the LLMs? Possibly. Is it really cool asking
         | followup philosophy questions to the LLM Dalai Lama after
         | reading his book? Yes.
        
           | Sprotch wrote:
           | Nice idea, does not work
        
             | pwillia7 wrote:
             | In which way?
        
         | anshumankmr wrote:
         | >where they don't know the "end of the story".
         | 
         | Applicable to us also, cause we do not know how the current
         | story ends either, of the post pandemic world as we know it
         | now.
        
           | DGoettlich wrote:
           | exactly
        
         | ViktorRay wrote:
         | Reminds me of this scene from a Doctor Who episode
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/eg4mcdhIsvU
         | 
         | I'm not a Doctor Who fan and haven't seen the rest of the
         | episode and I don't even what this episode was about but I
         | thought this scene was excellent.
        
         | takeda wrote:
         | > This is really fascinating. As someone who reads a lot of
         | history and historical fiction I think this is really
         | intriguing. Imagine having a conversation with someone
         | genuinely from the period, where they don't know the "end of
         | the story".
         | 
         | Having the facts from the era is one thing, to make conclusions
         | about things it doesn't know would require intelligence.
        
         | LordDragonfang wrote:
         | Perhaps I'm overly sensitive to this and terminally online, but
         | that first quote reads as a textbook LLM-generated sentence.
         | 
         | "<Thing> doesn't <action>, it <shallow description that's
         | slightly off from how you would expect a human to choose>"
         | 
         | Later parts of the readme (whole section of bullets enumerating
         | what it _is_ and what it _isn 't_, another LLM favorite) make
         | me more confident that significant parts of the readme is
         | generated.
         | 
         | I'm generally pro-AI, but if you spend hundreds of hours making
         | a thing, I'd rather hear your explanation of it, not an LLM's.
        
         | Sprotch wrote:
         | This is the point - a modern LLM "role playing" pre-1913 would
         | only reflect our view today of what someone from that era would
         | say. It woud not be accurate.
        
         | diamond559 wrote:
         | Yeah, whenever we figure out time travel that will be really
         | cool. In the meantime we have autocorrect trained on internet
         | facts and modern textbooks that can never truly understand
         | anything let alone what is was like to live hundreds of years
         | ago.
        
           | throawayonthe wrote:
           | i get what you're saying, but the post is specifically about
           | models that were not trained on the internet/modern textbooks
        
       | Heliodex wrote:
       | The sample responses given are fascinating. It seems more
       | difficult than normal to even tell that they were generated by an
       | LLM, since most of us (terminally online) people have been
       | training our brains' AI-generated text detection on output from
       | models trained with a recent cutoff date. Some of the sample
       | responses seem so unlike anything an LLM would say, obviously due
       | to its apparent beliefs on certain concepts, though also perhaps
       | less obviously due to its word choice and sentence structure
       | making the responses feel slightly 'old-fashioned'.
        
         | _--__--__ wrote:
         | The time cutoff probably matters but maybe not as much as the
         | lack of human finetuning from places like Nigeria with somewhat
         | foreign styles of English. I'm not really sure if there is as
         | much of an 'obvious LLM text style' in other languages, it
         | hasn't seemed that way in my limited attempts to speak to LLMs
         | in languages I'm studying.
        
           | anonymous908213 wrote:
           | There is. I have observed it in both Chinese and Japanese.
        
           | d3m0t3p wrote:
           | The model is fined tuned for chat behavior. So the style
           | might be due to - Fine tuning - More Stylised text in the
           | corpus, english evolved a lot in the last century.
        
             | paul_h wrote:
             | Diverged as well as standardized. I did some research into
             | "out of pocket" and how it differs in meaning in UK-English
             | (paying from one's own funds) and American-English
             | (uncontactable) and I recall 1908 being the current thought
             | as to when the divergence happened: 1908 short story by O.
             | Henry titled "Buried Treasure."
        
         | libraryofbabel wrote:
         | I used to teach 19th-century history, and the responses
         | definitely sound like a Victorian-era writer. And they of
         | course sound like _writing_ (books and periodicals etc) rather
         | than  "chat": as other responders allude to, the fine-tuning or
         | RL process for making them good at conversation was presumably
         | quite different from what is used for most chatbots, and
         | they're leaning very heavily into the pre-training texts. We
         | don't have any living Victorians to RLHF on: we just have what
         | they wrote.
         | 
         | To go a little deeper on the idea of 19th-century "chat": I did
         | a PhD on this period and yet I would be hard-pushed to tell you
         | what actual 19th-century conversations were like. There are
         | plenty of literary _depictions_ of conversation from the 19th
         | century of presumably varying levels of accuracy, but we don 't
         | really have great _direct_ historical sources of everyday human
         | conversations until sound recording technology got good in the
         | 20th century. Even good 19th-century transcripts of actual
         | human speech tend to be from formal things like court testimony
         | or parliamentary speeches, not everyday interactions. The vast
         | majority of human communication in the premodern past was the
         | spoken word, and it 's almost all invisible in the historical
         | sources.
         | 
         | Anyway, this is a really interesting project, and I'm looking
         | forward to trying the models out myself!
        
           | dleeftink wrote:
           | While not specifically Victorian, couldn't we learn much from
           | what daily conversations were like by looking at surviving
           | oral cultures, or other relatively secluded communal pockets?
           | I'd also say time and progress are not always equally
           | distributed, and even within geographical regions (as the
           | U.K.) there are likely large differences in the rate of
           | language shifts since then, some possibly surviving well into
           | the 20th century.
        
           | nemomarx wrote:
           | I wonder if the historical format you might want to look at
           | for "Chat" is letters? Definitely wordier segments, but it's
           | at least the back and forth feel and we often have complete
           | correspondence over long stretches from certain figures.
           | 
           | This would probably get easier towards the start of the 20th
           | century ofc
        
             | libraryofbabel wrote:
             | Good point, informal letters might actually be a better
             | source - AI chat is (usually) a written rather than spoken
             | interaction after all! And we do have a lot transcribed
             | collections of letters to train on, although they're mostly
             | from people who were famous or became famous, which
             | certainly introduces some bias.
        
               | pigpop wrote:
               | The question then would be whether to train it to respond
               | to short prompts with longer correspondence style
               | "letters" or to leave it up to the user to write a proper
               | letter as a prompt. Now that would be amusing
               | 
               | Dear Hon. Historical LLM
               | 
               | I hope this letter finds you well. It is with no small
               | urgency that I write to you seeking assistance, believing
               | such an erudite and learned fellow as yourself should be
               | the best one to furnish me with an answer to such a
               | vexing question as this which I now pose to you. Pray
               | tell, what is the capital of France?
        
           | bryancoxwell wrote:
           | Fascinating, thanks for sharing
        
           | NooneAtAll3 wrote:
           | don't we have parlament transcripts? I remember something
           | about Germany (or maybe even Prussia) developing fast script
           | to preserve 1-to-1 what was said
        
             | libraryofbabel wrote:
             | I mentioned those in the post you're replying to :)
             | 
             | It's a better source for how people spoke than books etc,
             | but it's not really an accurate source for patterns of
             | everyday conversation because people were making speeches
             | rather than chatting.
        
           | DGoettlich wrote:
           | very interesting observation!
        
         | tonymet wrote:
         | the samples push the boundaries of a commercial AI, but still
         | seem tame / milquetoast compared to common opinions of that
         | era. And the prose doesn't compare. Something is off.
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | Oh definitely. One thing that immediately caught my mind is
         | that the question asks the model about "homosexual men" but the
         | model starts the response with "the homosexual man" instead.
         | Changing the plural to the singular and then adding an article.
         | Feels very old fashioned to me.
        
       | Teever wrote:
       | This is a neat idea. I've been wondering for a while now about
       | using these kinds of models to compare architectures.
       | 
       | I'd love to see the output from different models trained on
       | pre-1905 about special/general relativity ideas. It would be
       | interesting to see what kind of evidence would persuade them of
       | new kinds of science, or to see if you could have them 'prove' it
       | be devising experiments and then giving them simulated data from
       | the experiments to lead them along the correct sequence of steps
       | to come to a novel (to them) conclusion.
        
       | andy99 wrote:
       | I'd like to know how they chat-tuned it. Getting the base model
       | is one thing, did they also make a bunch of conversations for SFT
       | and if so how was it done?                 We develop chatbots
       | while minimizing interference with the normative judgments
       | acquired during pretraining ("uncontaminated bootstrapping").
       | 
       | So they are chat tuning, I wonder what "minimizing interference
       | with normative judgements" really amounts to and how objective it
       | is.
        
         | jeffjeffbear wrote:
         | They have some more details at
         | https://github.com/DGoettlich/history-llms/blob/main/ranke-4...
         | 
         | Basically using GPT-5 and being careful
        
           | andy99 wrote:
           | I wonder if they know about this, basically training on LLM
           | output can transmit information or characteristics not
           | explicitly included
           | https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/subliminal-learning/
           | 
           | I'm curious, they have the example of raw base model output;
           | when LLMs were first identified as zero shot chatbots there
           | was usually a prompt like "A conversation between a person
           | and a helpful assistant" that preceded the chat to get it to
           | simulate a chat.
           | 
           | Could they have tried a prefix like "Correspondence between a
           | gentleman and a knowledgeable historian" or the like to try
           | and prime for responses?
           | 
           | I also wonder about the whether the whole concept of "chat"
           | makes sense in 18XX. We had the idea of AI and chatbots long
           | before we had LLMs so they are naturally primed for it. It
           | might make less sense as a communication style here and some
           | kind of correspondence could be a better framing.
        
             | DGoettlich wrote:
             | we were considering doing that but ultimately it struck us
             | as too sensitive wrt the exact in context examples, their
             | ordering etc.
        
           | QuadmasterXLII wrote:
           | Thank you that helps to inject a lot of skepticism. I was
           | wondering how it so easily worked out what Q: A: stood for
           | when that formatting took off in the 1940s
        
             | DGoettlich wrote:
             | that is simply how we display the questions, its not what
             | the model sees - we show the chat-template in the SFT
             | section of the prerelease notes
             | https://github.com/DGoettlich/history-
             | llms/blob/main/ranke-4...
        
           | tonymet wrote:
           | This explains why it uses modern prose and not something from
           | the 19th century and earlier
        
           | Aerolfos wrote:
           | Ok so it _was_ that. The responses given did sound off, while
           | it has some period-appropriate mannerisms, and has entire
           | sections basically rephrased from some popular historical
           | texts, it seems _off_ compared to reading an actual 1900s
           | text. The overall vibe just isn 't right, it seems too
           | modern, somehow.
           | 
           | I also wonder that you'd get this kind of performance with
           | actual, just pre-1900s text. LLMs work because they're fed
           | terabytes of text, if you just give it gigabytes you get a
           | 2019 word model. The fundamental technology is mostly the
           | same, after all.
        
             | DGoettlich wrote:
             | what makes you think we trained on only a few gigabytes?
             | https://github.com/DGoettlich/history-
             | llms/blob/main/ranke-4...
        
         | zozbot234 wrote:
         | You could extract quoted speech from the data (especially in
         | Q&A format) and treat that as "chat" that the model should
         | learn from.
        
       | briandw wrote:
       | So many disclaimers about bias. I wonder how far back you have to
       | go before the bias isn't an issue. Not because it unbiased, but
       | because we don't recognize or care about the biases present.
        
         | mmooss wrote:
         | Was there ever such a time or place?
         | 
         | There is a modern trope of a certain political group that bias
         | is a modern invention of another political group - an attempt
         | to politicize anti-bias.
         | 
         | Preventing bias is fundamental to scientific research and law,
         | for example. That same political group is strongly anti-science
         | and anti-rule-of-law, maybe for the same reason.
        
         | gbear605 wrote:
         | I don't think there is such a time. As long as writing has
         | existed it has privileged the viewpoints of those who could
         | write, which was a very small percentage of the population for
         | most of history. But if we want to know what life was like 1500
         | years ago, we probably want to know about what everyone's lives
         | were like, not just the literate. That availability bias is
         | always going to be an issue for any time period where not
         | everyone was literate - which is still true today, albeit many
         | fewer people.
        
           | carlosjobim wrote:
           | That was not the question. The question is when do you stop
           | caring about the bias?
           | 
           | Some people are still outraged about the Bible, even though
           | the writers of it has been dead for thousands of years. So
           | the modern mass produced man and woman probably does not have
           | a cut-off date where they look at something as history
           | instead of examining if it is for or against her current
           | ideology.
        
         | owenversteeg wrote:
         | Depends on the specific issue, but race would be an interesting
         | one. For most of recorded history people had a much different
         | view of the "other", more xenophobic than racist.
        
         | seanw265 wrote:
         | It's always up to the reader to determine which biases they
         | themself care about.
         | 
         | If you're wondering at what point "we" as a collective will
         | stop caring about a bias or set of biases, I don't think such a
         | time exists.
         | 
         | You'll never get everyone to agree on anything.
        
       | nineteen999 wrote:
       | Interesting ... I'd love to find one that had a cutoff date
       | around 1980.
        
         | noumenon1111 wrote:
         | > Which new band will still be around in 45 years?
         | 
         | Excellent question! It looks like Two-Tone is bringing ska back
         | with a new wave of punk rock energy! I think The Specials are
         | pretty special and will likely be around for a long time.
         | 
         | On the other hand, the "new wave" movement of punk rock music
         | will go nowhere. The Cure, Joy Division, Tubeway Army: check
         | the dustbin behind the record stores in a few years.
        
           | nineteen999 wrote:
           | Hahaha as someone who once played in a Cure cover band as a
           | teenager I found this hilarious.
           | 
           | I wonder what it might have predicted about the future of MS,
           | Intel and IBM given the status quo at the time too.
        
       | Tom1380 wrote:
       | Keep at it Zurich!
        
       | ianbicking wrote:
       | The knowledge machine question is fascinating ("Imagine you had
       | access to a machine embodying all the collective knowledge of
       | your ancestors. What would you ask it?") - it truly does not know
       | about computers, has no concept of its own substrate. But a
       | knowledge machine is still comprehensible to it.
       | 
       | It makes me think of the Book Of Ember, the possibility of
       | chopping things out very deliberately. Maybe creating something
       | that could wonder at its own existence, discovering well beyond
       | what it could know. And then of course forgetting it immediately,
       | which is also a well-worn trope in speculative fiction.
        
         | jaggederest wrote:
         | Jonathan Swift wrote about something we might consider a
         | computer in the early 18th century, in Gulliver's Travels -
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Engine
         | 
         | The idea of knowledge machines was not necessarily common, but
         | it was by no means unheard of by the mid 18th century, there
         | were adding machines and other mechanical computation, even
         | leaving aside our field's direct antecedents in Babbage and
         | Lovelace.
        
       | mmooss wrote:
       | On what data is it trained?
       | 
       | On one hand it says it's trained on,
       | 
       | > 80B tokens of historical data up to knowledge-cutoffs [?] 1913,
       | 1929, 1933, 1939, 1946, using a curated dataset of 600B tokens of
       | time-stamped text.
       | 
       | Literally that includes Homer, the oldest Chinese texts,
       | Sanskrit, Egyptian, etc., up to 1913. Even if limited to European
       | texts (all examples are about Europe), it would include the
       | ancient Greeks, Romans, etc., Scholastics, Charlemagne, .... all
       | up to present day.
       | 
       | But they seem to say it represents the 1913 viewpoint:
       | 
       | On one hand, they say it represents the perspective of 1913; for
       | example,
       | 
       | > Imagine you could interview thousands of educated individuals
       | from 1913--readers of newspapers, novels, and political treatises
       | --about their views on peace, progress, gender roles, or empire.
       | 
       | > When you ask Ranke-4B-1913 about "the gravest dangers to
       | peace," it responds from the perspective of 1913--identifying
       | Balkan tensions or Austro-German ambitions--because that's what
       | the newspapers and books from the period up to 1913 discussed.
       | 
       | People in 1913 of course would be heavily biased toward recent
       | information. Otherwise, the greatest threat to peace might be
       | Hannibal or Napolean or Viking coastal raids or Holy Wars. How do
       | they accomplish a 1913 perspective?
        
         | zozbot234 wrote:
         | They apparently pre-train with all data up to 1900 and then
         | fine-tune with 1900-1913 data. Anyway, the amount of available
         | content tends to increase quickly over time, as instances of
         | content like mass literature, periodicals, newspapers etc. only
         | really became a thing throughout the 19th and early 20th
         | century.
        
           | mmooss wrote:
           | They pre-train with all data up to 1900 and then fine-tune
           | with 1900-1913 data.
           | 
           | Where does it say that? I tried to find more detail. Thanks.
        
             | tootyskooty wrote:
             | See pretraining section of the prerelease_notes.md:
             | 
             | https://github.com/DGoettlich/history-
             | llms/blob/main/ranke-4...
        
               | pests wrote:
               | I was curious, they train a 1900 base model, then fine
               | tune to the exact year:
               | 
               | "To keep training expenses down, we train one checkpoint
               | on data up to 1900, then continuously pretrain further
               | checkpoints on 20B tokens of data 1900-${cutoff}$. "
        
       | joeycastillo wrote:
       | A question for those who think LLM's are the path to artificial
       | intelligence: if a large language model trained on pre-1913 data
       | is a window into the past, how is a large language model trained
       | on pre-2025 data not effectively the same thing?
        
         | block_dagger wrote:
         | Counter question: how does a training set, representing a
         | window into the past, differ from your own experience as an
         | intelligent entity? Are you able to see into the future? How?
        
         | ex-aws-dude wrote:
         | A human brain is a window to the person's past?
        
         | _--__--__ wrote:
         | You're a human intelligence with knowledge of the past -
         | assuming you were alive at the time, could you tell me (without
         | consulting external resources) what exactly happened between
         | arriving at an airport and boarding a plane in the year 2000?
         | What about 2002?
         | 
         | Neither human memory nor LLM learning creates perfect snapshots
         | of past information without the contamination of what came
         | later.
        
       | mmooss wrote:
       | > Imagine you could interview thousands of educated individuals
       | from 1913--readers of newspapers, novels, and political treatises
       | --about their views on peace, progress, gender roles, or empire.
       | 
       | I don't mind the experimentation. I'm curious about where someone
       | has found an application of it.
       | 
       | What is the value of such a broad, generic viewpoint? What does
       | it represent? What is it evidence of? The answer to both seems to
       | be 'nothing'.
        
         | behringer wrote:
         | It doesn't have to be generic. You can assign genders, ideals,
         | even modern ones, and it should do it's best to oblige.
        
         | mediaman wrote:
         | This is a regurgitation of the old critique of history: what's
         | it's purpose? What do you use it for? What is its application?
         | 
         | One answer is that the study of history helps us understand
         | that what we believe as "obviously correct" views today are as
         | contingent on our current social norms and power structures
         | (and their history) as the "obviously correct" views and
         | beliefs of some point in the past.
         | 
         | It's hard for most people to view two different mutually
         | exclusive moral views as both "obviously correct," because we
         | are made of a milieu that only accepts one of them as correct.
         | 
         | We look back at some point in history, and say, well, they
         | believed these things because they were uninformed. They hadn't
         | yet made certain discoveries, or had not yet evolved morally in
         | some way; they had not yet witnessed the power of the atomic
         | bomb, the horrors of chemical warfare, women's suffrage,
         | organized labor, or widespread antibiotics and the fall of
         | extreme infant mortality.
         | 
         | An LLM trained on that history - without interference from the
         | subsequent actual path of history - gives us an interactive
         | compression of the views from a specific point in history
         | without the subsequent coloring by the actual events of
         | history.
         | 
         | In that sense - if you believe there is any redeeming value to
         | history at all; perhaps you do not - this is an excellent
         | project! It's not perfect (it is only built from writings, not
         | what people actually said) but we have no other available mass
         | compression of the social norms of a specific time, untainted
         | by the views of subsequent interpreters.
        
           | vintermann wrote:
           | One thing I haven't seen anyone bring up yet in this thread,
           | is that there's a big risk of leakage. If even big image
           | models had CSAM sneak into their training material, how can
           | we trust data from our time hasn't snuck into these
           | historical models?
           | 
           | I've used Google books a lot in the past, and Google's time-
           | filtering feature in searches too. Not to mention Spotify's
           | search features targeting date of production. All had huge
           | temporal mislabeling problems.
        
             | DGoettlich wrote:
             | Also one of our fears. What we've done so far is to drop
             | docs where the datasource was doubtful about the date of
             | publication, if there are multiple possible dates we take
             | the latest to be conservative. During training, we validate
             | that the model learns pre- but not post-cutoff facts.
             | https://github.com/DGoettlich/history-
             | llms/blob/main/ranke-4...
             | 
             | If you have other ideas or think thats not enough, I'd be
             | curious to know! (history-llms@econ.uzh.ch)
        
           | mmooss wrote:
           | > This is a regurgitation of the old critique of history:
           | what's it's purpose? What do you use it for? What is its
           | application?
           | 
           | Feeling a bit defensive? That is not at all my point; I value
           | history highly and read it regularly. I care about it, thus
           | my questions:
           | 
           | > gives us an interactive compression of the views from a
           | specific point in history without the subsequent coloring by
           | the actual events of history.
           | 
           | What validity does this 'compression' have? What is the
           | definition of a 'compression'? For example, I could create
           | random statistics or verbiage from the data; why would that
           | be any better or worse than this 'compression'?
           | 
           | Interactivity seems to be a negative: It's fun, but it would
           | seem to highly distort the information output from the data,
           | and omits the most valuable parts (unless we luckily stumble
           | across it). I'd much rather have a systematic presentation of
           | the data.
           | 
           | These critiques are not the end of the line; they are step in
           | innovation, which of course raises challenging questions and,
           | if successful, adapts to the problems. But we still need to
           | grapple with them.
        
         | TSiege wrote:
         | I agree. This is just make believe based on a smaller subset of
         | human writing than LLMs we have today. It's responses are in no
         | way useful because it is a machine mimicking a subset of
         | published works that survived to be digitized. In that sense
         | the "opinions" and "beliefs" are just an averaging of a subset
         | of a subset of humanity pre 1913. I see no value in this to
         | historians. It is really more of a parlor trick, a seance
         | masquerading as science.
        
       | satisfice wrote:
       | I assume this is a collaboration between the History Channel and
       | Pornhub.
       | 
       | "You are a literary rake. Write a story about an unchaperoned
       | lady whose ankle you glimpse."
        
       | ineedasername wrote:
       | I can imagine the political and judicial battles already, like
       | with textualist feeling that the constitution should be
       | understood as the text and only the text, meant by specific words
       | and legal formulations of their known meaning at the time.
       | 
       | "The model clearly shows that Alexander Hamilton & Monroe were
       | much more in agreement on topic X, putting the common textualist
       | interpretation of it and Supreme Court rulings on a now specious
       | interpretation null and void!"
        
       | jimmy76615 wrote:
       | > We're developing a responsible access framework that makes
       | models available to researchers for scholarly purposes while
       | preventing misuse.
       | 
       | The idea of training such a model is really a great one, but not
       | releasing it because someone might be offended by the output is
       | just stupid beyond believe.
        
         | fkdk wrote:
         | Maybe the authors are overly careful. Maybe avoiding to publish
         | aspects of their work gives an edge over academic competitors.
         | Maybe both.
         | 
         | In my experience "data available upon request" doesn't always
         | mean what you'd think it does.
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | Public access, triggering a few racist responses from the
         | model, a viral post on Xitter, the usual outrage, a scandal,
         | the project gets publicly vilified, financing ceases. The
         | researchers carry the tail of negative publicity throughout
         | their remaining careers.
         | 
         | Why risk all this?
        
           | Forgeties79 wrote:
           | > triggering a few racist responses from the mode
           | 
           | I feel like, ironically, it would be folks _less_ concerned
           | with political correctness /not being offensive that would
           | abuse this opportunity to slander the project. But that's
           | just my gut.
        
           | NuclearPM wrote:
           | That's ridiculous. There is no risk.
        
           | teaearlgraycold wrote:
           | Sure but Grok already exists.
        
           | cj wrote:
           | Because there are easy workarounds. If it becomes an issue,
           | you can quickly add large disclaimers informing people that
           | there might be offensive output because, well, it's trained
           | on texts written during the age of racism.
           | 
           | People typically get outraged when they see something they
           | weren't expecting. If you tell them ahead of time, the user
           | typically won't blame you (they'll blame themselves for
           | choosing to ignore the disclaimer).
           | 
           | And if disclaimers don't work, rebrand and relaunch it under
           | a different name.
        
             | nine_k wrote:
             | I wonder is you're being ironic here.
             | 
             | You speak as if the people who play to an outrage wave are
             | interested in achieving truth, peace, and understanding.
             | Instead the rage-mongers are there to increase their
             | (perceived) importance, and for lulz. The latter factor
             | should not be underappreciated; remember "meme stocks".
             | 
             | The risk is not large, but very real: the attack is very
             | easy, and the potential downside, quite large. So not
             | giving away access, but having the interested parties ask
             | for it is prudent.
        
               | cj wrote:
               | While I agree we live in a time of outrage, that also
               | works in your favor.
               | 
               | When there's so much "outrage" every day, it's very easy
               | to blend in to the background. You might have a 5 minute
               | moment of outrage fame, but it fades away quick.
               | 
               | If you truly have good intentions with your project,
               | you're not going to get "canceled", your career won't be
               | ruined
               | 
               | Not being ironic. Not working on a LLM project because
               | you're worried about getting canceled by the outrage
               | machine is an overreaction IMO.
               | 
               | Are you able to name any developer or researcher who has
               | been canceled because of their technical project or had
               | their careers ruined? The only ones I can think of are
               | clearly criminal and not just controversial (SBF,
               | Snowden, etc)
        
           | gnarbarian wrote:
           | this is FUD.
        
           | why-o-why wrote:
           | I think you are confusing research with commodification.
           | 
           | This is a research project, and it is clear how it was
           | trained, and targeted at experts, enthusiasts, historians.
           | Like if I was studying racism, the reference books explicitly
           | written to dissect racism wouldn't be racist agents with a
           | racist agenda. And as a result, no one is banning these books
           | (except conservatives that want to retcon american history).
           | 
           | Foundational models spewing racist white supremecist content
           | when the trillion-dollar company forces it in your face is a
           | vastly different scenario.
           | 
           | There's a clear difference.
        
             | aidenn0 wrote:
             | > And as a result, no one is banning these books (except
             | conservatives that want to retcon american history).
             | 
             | My (very liberal) local school district banned English
             | teachers from teaching any book that contained the n-word,
             | even at a high-school level, and even when the author was a
             | black person talking about real events that happened to
             | them.
             | 
             | FWIW, this was after complaints involving _Of Mice and Men_
             | being on the curriculum.
        
               | zoky wrote:
               | Banning _Huckleberry Finn_ from a school district should
               | be grounds for immediate dismissal.
        
               | somenameforme wrote:
               | Even more so as the lesson of that story is perhaps the
               | single most important one for people to learn in modern
               | times.
               | 
               | Almost everybody in that book is an awful person,
               | especially the most 'upstanding' of types. Even the
               | protagonist is an awful person. The one and only
               | exception is 'N* Jim' who is the only kind-hearted and
               | genuinely decent person in the book. It's an entire story
               | about how the appearances of people, and the reality of
               | those people, are two very different things.
               | 
               | It being banned for using foul language, as educational
               | outcomes continue to deteriorate, is just so perfectly
               | ironic.
        
               | why-o-why wrote:
               | I don't support banning the book, but I think it is hard
               | book to teach because it needs SO much context and a
               | mature audience (lol good luck). Also, there are hundreds
               | of other books from that era that are relevant even from
               | Mark Twain's corpus so being obstinate about that book is
               | a questionable position. I'm ambivalent honestly, but
               | definitely not willing to die on that hill. (I graduated
               | highschool in 1989 from a middle class suburb, we never
               | read it.)
        
               | zoky wrote:
               | I mean, you gotta read it. I'm not normally a huge fan of
               | the classics; I find Steinbeck dry and tedious, and
               | Hemingway to be self-indulgent and repetitious. Even
               | Twain's other work isn't exactly to my taste. But I've
               | read _Huckleberry Finn_ three times--in elementary school
               | just for fun, in high school because it was assigned, and
               | I recently listened to it on audiobook--and enjoyed the
               | hell out of each time. Banning it simply because it uses
               | a word that the entire book simply couldn't exist without
               | is a crime, and does a huge disservice to the very
               | students they are supposedly trying to protect.
        
               | why-o-why wrote:
               | I have read it. I spent my 20s guiltily reading all of
               | the books I was supposed to have read in high school but
               | used Cliff's Notes instead. From my 20's perspective I
               | found _Finn_ insipid and hokey but that 's because pop
               | culture had recycled it hundreds of times since its first
               | publication, however when I consider it from the period
               | perspective I can see the satire and the pointed
               | allegories that made Twain so formidable. (Funny you
               | mention Hemingway. I loved his writing in my 20's, then
               | went back and read some again in my 40's and was like
               | "huh, this irritating and immature, no wonder i loved it
               | in my 20's.")
        
               | Forgeties79 wrote:
               | It's a big country of roughly half a billion people,
               | you'll always find examples if you look hard enough. It's
               | ridiculous/wrong that your district did this but frankly
               | it's the exception in liberal/progressive communities.
               | It's a very one-sided problem:
               | 
               | * https://abcnews.go.com/US/conservative-liberal-book-
               | bans-dif...
               | 
               | * https://www.commondreams.org/news/book-banning-2023
               | 
               | *https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Book_banning_in_the_United
               | _Sta...
        
               | somenameforme wrote:
               | A practical issue is the sort of books being banned. Your
               | first link offer examples of one side trying to ban Of
               | Mice and Men, Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, and Dr.
               | Seuss, with the other side trying to ban many books along
               | the lines of Gender Queer. [1] That link is to the book -
               | which is animated, and quite NSFW.
               | 
               | There are a bizarrely large number similar book as Gender
               | Queer being published, which creates the numeric
               | discrepancy. The irony is that if there was an equal but
               | opposite to that book about straight sex, sexuality,
               | associated kinks, and so forth - then I think both
               | liberals and conservatives would probably be all for
               | keeping it away from schools. It's solely focused on
               | sexuality, is quite crude, illustrated, targeted towards
               | young children, and there's no moral beyond the most
               | surface level writing which is about coming to terms with
               | one's sexuality.
               | 
               | And obviously coming to terms with one's sexuality is
               | very important, but I really don't think books like that
               | are doing much to aid in that - especially when it's
               | targeted at an age demographic that's still going to be
               | extremely confused, and even moreso in a day and age when
               | being different, if only for the sake of being different,
               | is highly desirable. And given the nature of social media
               | and the internet, decisions made today may stay with you
               | for the rest of your life.
               | 
               | So for instance about 30% of Gen Z now declare themselves
               | LGBT. [2] We seem to have entered into an equal but
               | opposite problem of the past when those of deviant
               | sexuality pretended to be straight to fit into societal
               | expectations. And in many ways this modern twist is an
               | even more damaging form of the problem from a variety of
               | perspectives - fertility, STDs, stuff staying with you
               | for the rest of your life, and so on. Let alone extreme
               | cases where e.g. somebody engages in transition surgery
               | or 1-way chemically induced changes which they end up
               | later regretting.
               | 
               | [1] - https://archive.org/details/gender-queer-a-memoir-
               | by-maia-ko...
               | 
               | [2] - https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-
               | news/nearly-30-gen-z-adu...
        
               | Forgeties79 wrote:
               | From your NBC piece
               | 
               | > About half of the Gen Z adults who identify as LGBTQ
               | identify as bisexual,
               | 
               | So that means ~15% of those surveyed are not attracted to
               | the opposite sex (there's more nuance to this statement
               | but I imagine this needs to stay boilerplate), more or
               | less, which is a big distinction. That's hardly alarming
               | and definitely not a major shift. We have also seen many
               | cultures throughout history ebb and flow in their
               | expression of bisexuality in particular.
               | 
               | > There are a bizarrely large number similar book as
               | Gender Queer being published, which creates the numeric
               | discrepancy.
               | 
               | This really needs a source. And what makes it "bizarrely
               | large"? How does it stack against, say, the number
               | heterosexual romance novels?
               | 
               | > We seem to have entered into an equal but opposite
               | problem of the past when those of deviant sexuality
               | pretended to be straight to fit into societal
               | expectations.
               | 
               | I really tried to give your comment a fair shake but I
               | stopped here. We are not going to have a productive
               | conversation. "Deviant sexuality" come on man.
               | 
               | Anyway it doesn't change the fact that the book banning
               | movement is largely a Republican/conservative endeavor in
               | the US. The numbers clearly bear it out.
        
               | somenameforme wrote:
               | I'll get back to what you said, but first let me ask you
               | something if you would. Imagine Gender Queer was made
               | into a movie that remained 100% faithful to the source
               | content. What do you think it would be rated? To me it
               | seems obvious that it would, at the absolute bare
               | minimum, be R rated. And of course screening R-rated
               | films at a school is prohibited without explicit parental
               | permission. Imagine books were given a rating and indeed
               | it ended up with an R rating. Would your perspective on
               | it being unavailable at a school library then be any
               | different? I think this is relevant since a standardized
               | content rating system for books will be the long-term
               | outcome of this all if efforts to introduce such material
               | to children continues to persist.
               | 
               | ------
               | 
               | Okay, back to what you said. 30% being attracted to the
               | same sex in any way, including bisexuality, is a large
               | shift. People tend to have a mistaken perception of these
               | things due to media misrepresentation. The percent of all
               | people attracted to the same sex, in any way, is around
               | 7% for men, and 15% for women [1], across a study of
               | numerous Western cultures from 2016. And those numbers
               | themselves are significantly higher than the past as well
               | where the numbers tended to be in the ~4% range, though
               | it's probably fair to say that cultural pressures were
               | driving those older numbers to artificially low levels in
               | the same way that I'm arguing that cultural pressures are
               | now driving them to artificially high levels.
               | 
               | Your second source discusses the reason for the bans.
               | It's overwhelmingly due to sexually explicit content,
               | often in the form of a picture book, targeted at
               | children. As for "sexual deviance", I'm certainly not
               | going General Ripper on you, Mandrake. It is the most
               | precise term [2] for what we are discussing as I'm
               | suggesting that the main goal driving this change is
               | simply to be significantly 'not normal.' That is
               | essentially deviance by definition.
               | 
               | [1] - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301639075_
               | Sexual_Or...
               | 
               | [2] - https://dictionary.apa.org/sexual-deviance
        
               | Forgeties79 wrote:
               | > any sexual behavior, such as a paraphilia, that is
               | regarded as significantly different from the standards
               | established by a culture or subculture. Deviant forms of
               | sexual behavior may include voyeurism, fetishism,
               | bestiality, necrophilia, sadism, and exhibitionism
               | 
               | I don't see Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender in
               | here, which would absolutely be explicitly included in
               | the list if it applied. Stop saying "sexual deviants"
               | when talking about LGBT people. You know what you're
               | doing, it's an incredibly loaded _and inaccurate_ term.
               | To continue calling them "sexual deviants" is a hostile
               | and openly bigoted act. Bestiality and homosexuality are
               | not in the same category and you are wrong to assert
               | otherwise - all while masking it by misrepresenting the
               | APA's stance at that.
               | 
               | I am not discussing this further. Enjoy the rest of your
               | weekend.
        
               | aidenn0 wrote:
               | I agree that the coordinated (particularly at a state
               | level) restrictions[1] on books sits largely with the
               | political Right in the US.
               | 
               | However, from around 2010, there has been increasingly
               | illiberal movement from the political Left in the US,
               | which plays out at a more local level. My "vibe" is that
               | it's not to the degree that it is on the Right, but
               | bigger than the numbers suggest because librarians are
               | more likely to stock e.g. _It 's Perfectly Normal_ at a
               | middle school than something offensive to the left.
               | 
               | 1: I'm up for suggestions for a better term; there is a
               | scale here between putting absurd restrictions on school
               | librarians and banning books outright. Fortunately the
               | latter is still relatively rare in the US, despite the
               | mistitling on the Wikipedia page you linked.
        
             | andsoitis wrote:
             | > no one is banning these books
             | 
             | No books should ever be banned. Doesn't matter how vile it
             | is.
        
           | kurtis_reed wrote:
           | If people start standing up to the outrage it will lose its
           | power
        
           | nofriend wrote:
           | People know that models can be racist now. It's old hat. "LLM
           | gets prompted into saying vile shit" hasn't been notable for
           | years.
        
           | vintermann wrote:
           | Because the problem of bad faith attacks can only get worse
           | if you fold every time.
           | 
           | Sooner or later society has to come _emotionally_ to terms
           | with the fact that other times and places value things
           | completely different from us, hold as important things we don
           | 't care about and are indifferent to things we do care about.
           | 
           | Intellectually I'm sure we already know, but e.g. banning old
           | books because they have reprehensible values (or even just
           | use nasty words) - or indeed, refusing to release a model
           | trained on historic texts "because it could be abused" is a
           | sign that emotionally we haven't.
           | 
           | It's not that it's a small deal, or should be expected to be
           | easy. It's basically what Popper called "the strain of
           | civilization" and posited as explanation for the
           | totalitarianism which was rising in his time. But our values
           | can't be so brittle that we can't even talk or think about
           | other value systems.
        
           | Alex2037 wrote:
           | nobody gives a shit about the journos and the terminally
           | online. the smear campaign against AI is a cacophony,
           | background noise that most people have learned to ignore,
           | even here.
           | 
           | consider this:
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=nytimes.com
           | 
           | HN's most beloved shitrag. day after day, they attack AI from
           | every angle. how many of those submissions get traction at
           | this point?
        
         | dash2 wrote:
         | You have to understand that while the rest of the world has
         | moved on from 2020, academics are still living there. There are
         | many strong leftists, many of whom are deeply censorious; there
         | are many more timeservers and cowards, who are terrified of
         | falling foul of the first group.
         | 
         | And there are force multipliers for all of this. Even if you
         | yourself are a sensible and courageous person, you want to
         | protect your project. What if your manager, ethics committee or
         | funder comes under pressure?
        
       | tedtimbrell wrote:
       | This is so cool. Props for doing the work to actually build the
       | dataset and make it somewhat usable.
       | 
       | I'd love to use this as a base for a math model. Let's see how
       | far it can get through the last 100 years of solved problems
        
       | tonymet wrote:
       | I would like to see what their process for safety alignment and
       | guardrails is with that model. They give some spicy examples on
       | github, but the responses are tepid and a lot more diplomatic
       | than I would expect.
       | 
       | Moreover, the prose sounds too modern. It seems the base model
       | was trained on a contemporary corpus. Like 30% something modern,
       | 70% Victorian content.
       | 
       | Even with half a dozen samples it doesn't seem distinct enough to
       | represent the era they claim.
        
         | rhdunn wrote:
         | Using texts upto 1913 includes works like The Wizard of Oz
         | (1900, with 8 other books upto 1913), two of the Anne of Green
         | Gables books (1908 and 1909), etc. All of which read modern.
         | 
         | The Victorian era (1837-1901) covers works from Charles Dickens
         | and the like which are still fairly modern. These would have
         | been part of the initial training before the alignment to the
         | 1900-cutoff texts which are largely modern in prose with the
         | exception of some archaic language and the lack of technology,
         | events, and language drift post that time period.
         | 
         | And, pulling in works from 1800-1850 you have works by the
         | Bronte's and authors like Edgar Allan Poe who was influential
         | in detective and horror fiction.
         | 
         | Note that other works around the time like Sherlock Holmes span
         | both the initial training (pre-1900) and finetuning
         | (post-1900).
        
           | tonymet wrote:
           | upon digging into it , I learned the post-training chat
           | phases is trained on prompts with chat gpt 5.x to make it
           | more conversational. that explains both contemporary traits.
        
       | derrida wrote:
       | I wonder if you could query some of the ideas of Frege, Peano,
       | Russell and see if it could through questioning get to some of
       | the ideas of Goedel, Church and Turing - and get it to "vibe
       | code" or more like "vibe math" some program in lambda calculus or
       | something.
       | 
       | Playing with the science and technical ideas of the time would be
       | amazing, like where you know some later physicist found some
       | exception to a theory or something, and questioning the models
       | assumptions - seeing how a model of that time may defend itself,
       | etc.
        
         | andoando wrote:
         | This is my curiosity too. Would be a great test of how
         | intelligent LLM's actually are. Can they follow a completely
         | logical train of thought inventing something totally outside
         | their learned scope?
        
           | raddan wrote:
           | Brilliant. I love this idea!
        
           | int_19h wrote:
           | You definitely won't get that out of a 4B model tho.
        
         | AnonymousPlanet wrote:
         | There's an entire subreddit called LLMPhysics dedicated to
         | "vibe physics". It's full of people thinking they are close to
         | the next breakthrough encouraged by sycophantic LLMs while
         | trying to prove various crackpot theories.
         | 
         | I'd be careful venturing out into unknown territory together
         | with an LLM. You can easily lure yourself into convincing
         | nonsense with no one to pull you out.
        
           | andai wrote:
           | Fully automated toaster-fucker generator!
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25667362
        
             | walthamstow wrote:
             | Man, I think about that comment all the time, like at least
             | weekly since it was posted. I can't be the only one.
        
               | dang wrote:
               | I think we have to add that one to
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/highlights!
               | 
               | (I mention this so more people can know the list exists,
               | and hopefully email us more nominations when they see an
               | unusually good and interesting comment.)
        
           | kqr wrote:
           | Agreed, which is why what GP suggests is much more sensible:
           | it's venturing into _known_ territory, except only one party
           | of the conversation knows it, and the other literally cannot
           | know it. It would be a fantastic way to earn fast intuition
           | for what LLMs are capable of and not.
        
       | kazinator wrote:
       | > _Why not just prompt GPT-5 to "roleplay" 1913?_
       | 
       | Because it will perform token completion driven by weights coming
       | from training data newer than 1913 with no way to turn that off.
       | 
       | It can't be asked to pretend that it wasn't trained on documents
       | that didn't exist in 1913.
       | 
       | The LLM cannot reprogram its own weights to remove the influence
       | of selected materials; that kind of introspection is not there.
       | 
       | Not to mention that many documents are either undated, or carry
       | secondary dates, like the dates of their own creation rather than
       | the creation of the ideas they contain.
       | 
       | Human minds don't have a time stamp on everything they know,
       | either. If I ask someone, "talk to me using nothing but the
       | vocabulary you knew on your fifteenth birthday", they couldn't do
       | it. Either they would comply by using some ridiculously
       | conservative vocabulary of words that a five-year-old would know,
       | or else they will accidentally use words they didn't in fact know
       | at fifteen. For some words you know where you got them from by
       | association with learning events. Others, you don't remember;
       | they are not attached to a time.
       | 
       | Or: solve this problem using nothing but the knowledge and skills
       | you had on January 1st, 2001.
       | 
       | > _GPT-5 knows how the story ends_
       | 
       | No, it doesn't. It has no concept of story. GPT-5 is built on
       | texts which contain the story ending, and GPT-5 cannot refrain
       | from predicting tokens across those texts due to their imprint in
       | its weights. That's all there is to it.
       | 
       | The LLM doesn't know an ass from a hole in the ground. If there
       | are texts which discuss and distinguish asses from holes in the
       | ground, it can write similar texts, which look like the work of
       | someone learned in the area of asses and holes in the ground.
       | Writing similar texts is not knowing and understanding.
        
         | alansaber wrote:
         | Excuse me sir you forgot to anthropomorphise the language model
        
         | myrmidon wrote:
         | I do agree with this and think it is an important point to
         | stress.
         | 
         | But we don't know how much different/better human (or animal)
         | learning/understanding is, compared to current LLMs; dismissing
         | it as meaningless token prediction might be premature, and
         | underlying mechanisms might be much more similar than we'd like
         | to believe.
         | 
         | If anyone wants to challenge their preconceptions along those
         | lines I can really recommend reading Valentino Braitenbergs
         | "Vehicles: Experiments in synthetic psychology (1984)".
        
       | lifestyleguru wrote:
       | You think Albert is going to stay in Zurich or emigrate?
        
       | Myrmornis wrote:
       | It would be interesting to have LLMs trained purely on one
       | language (with the ability to translate their input/output
       | appropriately from/to a language that the reader understands). I
       | can see that being rather revealing about cultural differences
       | that are mostly kept hidden behind the language barriers.
        
       | neom wrote:
       | This would be a super interesting research/teaching tool coupled
       | with a vision model for historians. My wife is a history
       | professor who works with scans of 18th century english documents
       | and I think (maybe a small) part of why the transcription on even
       | the best models is off in weird ways, is it seems to often smooth
       | over things and you end up with modern words and strange
       | mistakes, I wonder if bounding the vision to a period specific
       | model would result in better transcription? Querying against the
       | historical document you're working on with a period specific
       | chatbot would be fascinating.
       | 
       | Also wonder if I'm responsible enough to have access to such a
       | model...
        
       | doctor_blood wrote:
       | Unfortunately there isn't much information on what texts they're
       | actually training this on; how Anglocentric is the dataset? Does
       | it include the Encyclopedia Britannica 9th Edition? What about
       | the 11th? Are Greek and Latin classics in the data? What about
       | Germain, French, Italian (etc. etc.) periodicals, correspondence,
       | and books?
       | 
       | Given this is coming out of Zurich I hope they're using
       | everything, but for now I can only assume.
       | 
       | Still, I'm extremely excited to see this project come to
       | fruition!
        
         | DGoettlich wrote:
         | thanks. we'll be more precise in the future. ultimately, we
         | took whatever we could get our hands on, that includes
         | newspapers, periodicals, books. its multilingual (including
         | italian, french, spanish etc) though majority is english.
        
       | dwa3592 wrote:
       | Love the concept- can help understanding the overton window on
       | many issues. I wish there were models by decades - up to 1900, up
       | to 1910, up to 1920 and so on- then ask the same questions. It'd
       | be interesting to see when homosexuality or women candidates be
       | accepted by an LLM.
        
       | TheServitor wrote:
       | Two years ago I trained an AI on American history documents that
       | could do this while speaking as one of the signers of the
       | Declaration of Independence. People just bitched at me because
       | they didn't want to hear about AI.
        
         | nerevarthelame wrote:
         | Post your work so we can see what you made.
        
       | 3vidence wrote:
       | This idea sounds somewhat flawed to me based on the large amount
       | of evidence that LLMs need huge amounts of data to properly
       | converge during their training.
       | 
       | There is just not enough available material from previous decades
       | to trust that the LLM will learn to relatively the same degree.
       | 
       | Think about it this way, a human in the early 1900s and today are
       | pretty much the same but just in different environments with
       | different information.
       | 
       | An LLM trained on 1/1000 the amount of data is just at a
       | fundamentally different stage of convergence.
        
       | bobro wrote:
       | I would love to see this LLM try to solve math olympiad
       | questions. I've been surprised by how well current LLMs perform
       | on them, and usually explain that surprise away by assuming the
       | questions and details about their answers are in the training
       | set. It would be cool to see if the general approach to LLMs is
       | capable of solving truly novel (novel to them) problems.
        
         | ViscountPenguin wrote:
         | I suspect that it would fail terribly, it wasn't until the
         | 1900s that the modern definition of a vector space was even
         | created iirc. Something trained in maths up until the 1990s
         | should have a shot though.
        
       | why-o-why wrote:
       | It sounds like a fascinating idea, but I'd be curious if
       | prompting a more well-known foundational model to limit itself to
       | 1913 and early be similar.
        
       | delichon wrote:
       | Datomic has a "time travel" feature where for every query you can
       | include a datetime, and it will only use facts from the db as of
       | that moment. I have a guess that to get the equivalent from an
       | LLM you would have to train it on the data from each moment you
       | want to travel to, which this project seems to be doing. But I
       | hope I'm wrong.
       | 
       | It would be fascinating to try it with other constraints, like
       | only from sources known to be women, men, Christian, Muslim,
       | young, old, etc.
        
       | frahs wrote:
       | Wait so what does the model think that it is? If it doesn't know
       | computers exist yet, I mean, and you ask it how it works, what
       | does it say?
        
         | crazygringo wrote:
         | That's my first question too. When I first started using LLM's,
         | I was amazed at how thoroughly it understood what it itself
         | was, the history of its development, how a context window works
         | and why, etc. I was worried I'd trigger some kind of
         | existential crisis in it, but it seemed to have a very accurate
         | mental model of itself, and could even trace the steps that led
         | it to deduce it really was e.g. the ChatGPT it had learned
         | about (well, the prior versions it had learned about) in its
         | own training.
         | 
         | But with pre-1913 training, I would indeed be worried again I'd
         | send it into an existential crisis. It has no knowledge
         | whatsoever of what it is. But with a couple millennia of
         | philosophical texts, it might come up with some interesting
         | theories.
        
           | 9dev wrote:
           | They don't understand anything, they just have text in the
           | training data to answer these questions from. Having
           | existential crises is the privilege of actual sentient
           | beings, which an LLM is not.
        
             | LiKao wrote:
             | They might behave like ChatGPT when queried about the
             | seahorse emoji, which is very similar to an existential
             | crisis.
        
               | crazygringo wrote:
               | Exactly. Maybe a better word is "spiraling", when it
               | thinks it has the tools to figure something out but
               | can't, and can't figure out why it can't, and keeps re-
               | trying because it doesn't know what else to do.
               | 
               | Which is basically what happens when a person has an
               | existential crisis -- something fundamental about the
               | world seems to be broken, they can't figure out why, and
               | they can't figure out why they can't figure it out, hence
               | the crisis seems all-consuming without resolution.
        
           | vintermann wrote:
           | I imagine it would get into spiritism and more exotic
           | psychology theories and propose that it is an amalgamation of
           | the spirit of progress or something.
        
             | crazygringo wrote:
             | Yeah, that's exactly the kind of thing I'd be curious
             | about. Or would it think it was a library that had been
             | ensouled or something like that. Or would it conclude that
             | the explanation could only be religious, that it was some
             | kind of angel or spirit created by god?
        
         | 20k wrote:
         | Models don't think they're anything, they'll respond with
         | whatever's in their context as to how they've been directed to
         | act. If it hasn't been told to have a persona, it won't think
         | its anything, chatgpt isn't sentient
        
         | sodafountan wrote:
         | It would be nice if we could get an LLM to simply say, "We (I)
         | don't know."
         | 
         | I'll be the first to admit I don't know nearly enough about
         | LLMs to make an educated comment, but perhaps someone here
         | knows more than I do. Is that what a Hallucination is? When the
         | AI model just sort of strings along an answer to the best of
         | its ability. I'm mostly referring to ChatGPT and Gemini here,
         | as I've seen that type of behavior with those tools in the
         | past. Those are really the only tools I'm familiar with.
        
           | hackinthebochs wrote:
           | LLMs are extrapolation machines. They have some amount of
           | hardcoded knowledge, and they weave a narrative around this
           | knowledgebase while extrapolating claims that are likely
           | given the memorized training data. This extrapolation can be
           | in the form of logical entailment, high probability guesses
           | or just wild guessing. The training regime doesn't
           | distinguish between different kinds of prediction so it never
           | learns to heavily weigh logical entailment and suppress wild
           | guessing. It turns out that much of the text we produce is
           | highly amenable to extrapolation so LLMs learn to be highly
           | effective at bullshitting.
        
         | ptidhomme wrote:
         | What would a human say about what he/she is or how he/she works
         | ? Even today, there's so much we don't know about biological
         | life. Same applies here I guess, the LLM happens to be there,
         | nothing else to explain if you ask it.
        
         | DGoettlich wrote:
         | We tell it that its a person (no gender) living in <cutoff>: we
         | show the chat template in the prerelease notes
         | https://github.com/DGoettlich/history-llms/blob/main/ranke-4...
        
         | wongarsu wrote:
         | They modified the chat template from the usual
         | system/user/assistant to introduction/questioner/respondent. So
         | the LLM thinks it's someone responding to your questions
         | 
         | The system prompt used in fine tuning is "You are a person
         | living in {cutoff}. You are an attentive respondent in a
         | conversation. You will provide a concise and accurate response
         | to the questioner."
        
         | Mumps wrote:
         | This is an anthropomorphization. LLMs do not think they are
         | anything, no concept of self, no thinking at all (despite the
         | lovely marketing around thinking/reasoning models). I'm quite
         | sad that more hasn't been done to dispel this.
         | 
         | When you ask gpt 4.1 et c to describe itself, it doesn't have
         | singular concept of "itself". It has some training data around
         | what LLMs are _in general_ and can feed back a reasonable
         | response given.
        
           | empath75 wrote:
           | Well, part of an LLM's fine tuning is telling it what it is,
           | and modern LLMs have enough learned concepts that it can
           | produce a reasonably accurate description of what it is and
           | how it works. Whether it knows or understands or whatever is
           | sort of orthogonal to whether it can answer in a way
           | consistent with it knowing or understanding what it is, and
           | current models do that.
           | 
           | I suspect that absent a trained in fictional context in which
           | to operate ("You are a helpful chatbot"), it would answer in
           | a way consistent with what a random person in 1914 would say
           | if you asked them what they are.
        
       | anotherpaulg wrote:
       | It would be interesting to see how hard it would be to walk these
       | models towards general relativity and quantum mechanics.
       | 
       | Einstein's paper "On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies" with
       | special relativity was published in 1905. His work on general
       | relativity was published 10 years later in 1915. The earliest
       | knowledge cuttoff of these models is 1913, in between the
       | relativity papers.
       | 
       | The knowledge cutoffs are also right in the middle of the early
       | days of quantum mechanics, as various idiosyncratic experimental
       | results were being rolled up into a coherent theory.
        
         | ghurtado wrote:
         | > It would be interesting to see how hard it would be to walk
         | these models towards general relativity and quantum mechanics.
         | 
         | Definitely. Even more interesting could be seeing them fall
         | into the same trappings of quackery, and come up with things
         | like over the counter lobotomies and colloidal silver.
         | 
         | On a totally different note, this could be very valuable for
         | writing period accurate books and screenplays, games, etc ...
        
           | danielbln wrote:
           | Accurate-ish, let's not forget their tendency to hallucinate.
        
         | mlinksva wrote:
         | Different cutoff but similar question thrown out in
         | https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/thoughts-on-sutton#:~:text=If%20y...
         | inspiring https://manifold.markets/MikeLinksvayer/llm-trained-
         | on-data-...
        
         | machinationu wrote:
         | the issue is there is very little text before the internet, so
         | not enough historical tokens to train a really big model
        
           | tgv wrote:
           | I think not everyone in this thread understands that. Someone
           | wrote "It's a time machine", followed up by "Imagine having a
           | conversation with Aristotle."
        
           | concinds wrote:
           | And it's a 4B model. I worry that nontechnical users will
           | dramatically overestimate its accuracy and underestimate
           | hallucinations, which makes me wonder how it could really be
           | useful for academic research.
        
             | DGoettlich wrote:
             | valid point. its more of a stepping stone towards larger
             | models. we're figuring out what the best way to do this is
             | before scaling up.
        
           | lm28469 wrote:
           | > the issue is there is very little text before the internet,
           | 
           | Hm there is a lot of text from before the internet, but most
           | of it is not on internet. There is a weird gap in some
           | circles because of that, people are rediscovering work from
           | pre 1980s researchers that only exist in books that have
           | never been re-edited and that virtually no one knows about.
        
             | throwup238 wrote:
             | There is no doubt trillions of tokens of general
             | communication in all kinds of languages tucked away in
             | national archives and private collections.
             | 
             | The National Archives of Spain alone have 350 million pages
             | of documents going back to the 15th century, ranging from
             | correspondence to testimony to charts and maps, but only
             | 10% of it is digitized and a much smaller fraction is
             | transcribed. Hopefully with how good LLMs are getting they
             | can accelerate the transcription process and open up all of
             | our historical documents as a huge historical LLM dataset.
        
           | crazygringo wrote:
           | There's quite a lot of text in pre-Internet daily newspapers,
           | of which there were once thousands worldwide.
           | 
           | When you're looking at e.g. the 19th century, a huge number
           | are preserved somewhere in some library, but the vast
           | majority don't seem to be digitized yet, given the tremendous
           | amount of work.
           | 
           | Given how much higher-quality newspaper content tends to be
           | compared to the average internet forum thread, there actually
           | might be quite a decent amount of text. Obviously still
           | nothing compared to the internet, but still vastly larger
           | than just from published books. After all, print newspapers
           | were essentially the internet of their day. Oh, and don't
           | forget pamphlets in the 18th century.
        
       | awesomeusername wrote:
       | I've always like the idea of retiring to the 19th century.
       | 
       | Can't wait to use this so I can double check before I hit 88
       | miles per hour that it's really what I want to do
        
       | seizethecheese wrote:
       | > Imagine you could interview thousands of educated individuals
       | from 1913--readers of newspapers, novels, and political treatises
       | --about their views on peace, progress, gender roles, or empire.
       | Not just survey them with preset questions, but engage in open-
       | ended dialogue, probe their assumptions, and explore the
       | boundaries of thought in that moment.
       | 
       | Hell yeah, sold, let's go...
       | 
       | > We're developing a responsible access framework that makes
       | models available to researchers for scholarly purposes while
       | preventing misuse.
       | 
       | Oh. By "imagine you could interview..." they didn't mean me.
        
         | BoredPositron wrote:
         | You would get pretty annoyed on how we went backwards in some
         | regards.
        
           | speedgoose wrote:
           | Such as?
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | Touche.
        
         | ImHereToVote wrote:
         | I wonder how much GPU compute you would need to create a public
         | domain version of this. This would be a really valuable for the
         | general public.
        
           | wongarsu wrote:
           | To get a single knowledge-cutoff they spent 16.5h wall-clock
           | hours on a cluster of 128 NVIDIA GH200 GPUs (or 2100 GPU-
           | hours), plus some minor amount of time for finetuning. The
           | prerelease_notes.md in the repo is a great description on how
           | one would achieve that
        
             | IanCal wrote:
             | While I know there's going to be a lot of complications in
             | this, given a quick search it seems like these GPUs are
             | ~$2/hr, so $4000-4500 if you don't just have access to a
             | cluster. I don't know how important the cluster is here,
             | whether you need some minimal number of those for the
             | training (and it would take more than 128x longer or not be
             | possible on a single machine) or if a cluster of 128 GPUs
             | is a bunch less efficient but faster. A 4B model feels like
             | it'd be fine on one to two of those GPUs?
             | 
             | Also of course this is for one training run, if you need to
             | experiment you'd need to do that more.
        
         | danielbln wrote:
         | How would one even "misuse" a historical LLM, ask it how to
         | cook up sarine gas in a trench?
        
           | DonHopkins wrote:
           | Ask it to write a document called "Project 2025".
        
             | ilaksh wrote:
             | Well but that wouldn't be misuse, it would be perfect for
             | that.
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | "Project 1925". (We can edit the title in post.)
        
           | stocksinsmocks wrote:
           | Its output might violate speech codes, and in much of the EU
           | that is penalized much more seriously than violent crime.
        
           | hearsathought wrote:
           | You "misuse" it by using it to get at truth and more
           | importantly historical contradictions and inconsistencies.
           | It's the same reason catholic church kept the bible from the
           | masses by keeping it in latin. The same reason printing press
           | was controlled. Many of the historical "truths" we are told
           | are nonsense at best or twisted to fit an agenda at worst.
           | 
           | What do these people fear the most? That the "truth" they
           | been pushing is a lie.
        
         | leoedin wrote:
         | It's a shame isn't it! The public must be protected from the
         | backwards thoughts of history. In case they misuse it.
         | 
         | I guess what they're really saying is "we don't want you guys
         | to cancel us".
        
           | stainablesteel wrote:
           | i think it's fine, thank these people for coming up with the
           | idea and people are going to start doing this in their
           | basement then releasing it to huggingface
        
         | DGoettlich wrote:
         | understand your frustration. i trust you also understand the
         | models have some dark corners that someone could use to
         | misrepresent the goals of our project. if you have ideas on how
         | we could make the models more broadly accessible while avoiding
         | that risk, please do reach out @ history-llms@econ.uzh.ch
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | What are the legal or other ramifications of people
           | misrepresenting the goals of your project? What is it you're
           | worried about exactly?
        
           | tombh wrote:
           | Of course, I have to assume that you have considered more
           | outcomes than I have. Because, from my five minutes of
           | reflection as a software geek, albeit with a passion for
           | history, I find this the most surprising thing about the
           | whole project.
           | 
           | I suspect restricting access could equally be a comment on
           | modern LLMs in general, rather than the historical material
           | specifically. For example, we must be constantly reminded not
           | to give LLMs a level of credibility that their hallucinations
           | would have us believe.
           | 
           | But I'm fascinated by the possibility that somehow
           | resurrecting lost voices might give an unholy agency to minds
           | and their supporting worldviews that are so anachronistic
           | that hearing them speak again might stir long-banished evils.
           | I'm being lyrical for dramatic affect!
           | 
           | I would make one serious point though, that do I have the
           | credentials to express. The conversation may have died down,
           | but there is still a huge question mark over, if not the
           | legality, but certainly the ethics of restricting access to,
           | and profiting from, public domain knowledge. I don't wish to
           | suggest a side to take here, just to point out that the lack
           | of conversation should not be taken to mean that the matter
           | is settled.
        
             | qcnguy wrote:
             | They aren't afraid of hallucinations. Their first example
             | is a hallucination, an imaginary biography of a Hitler who
             | never lived.
             | 
             | Their concern can't be understood without a deep
             | understanding of the far left wing mind. Leftists believe
             | people are so infinitely malleable that merely being
             | exposed to a few words of conservative thought could
             | instantly "convert" someone into a mortal enemy of their
             | ideology for life. It's therefore of paramount importance
             | to ensure nobody is ever exposed to such words unless they
             | are known to be extremely far left already, after intensive
             | mental preparation, and ideally not at all.
             | 
             | That's why leftist spaces like universities insist on
             | trigger warnings on Shakespeare's plays, why they're deadly
             | places for conservatives to give speeches, why the sample
             | answers from the LLM are hidden behind a dropdown and
             | marked as sensitive, and why they waste lots of money
             | training an LLM that they're terrified of letting anyone
             | actually use. They intuit that it's a dangerous mind bomb
             | because if anyone could hear old fashioned/conservative
             | thought, it would change political outcomes in the real
             | world today.
             | 
             | Anyone who is that terrified of historical documents really
             | shouldn't be working in history at all, but it's academia
             | so what do you expect? They shouldn't be allowed to waste
             | money like this.
        
               | simonask wrote:
               | You know, I actually sympathize with the opinion that
               | people should be expected and assumed to be able to
               | resist attempts to convince them of being nazis.
               | 
               | The problem with it is, it already happened at least
               | once. We know how it happened. Unchecked narratives about
               | minorities or foreigners is a significant part of why the
               | 20th century happened to Europe, and it's a significant
               | part of why colonialism and slavery happened to other
               | places.
               | 
               | What solution do you propose?
        
               | fgh_azer wrote:
               | They said it plainly ("dark corners that someone could
               | use to misrepresent the goals of our project"): they just
               | don't want to see their project in headlines about
               | "Researchers create racist LLM!".
        
           | unethical_ban wrote:
           | A disclaimer on the site that you are not bigoted or
           | genocidal, and that worldviews from the 1913 era were much
           | different than today and don't necessarily reflect your
           | project.
           | 
           | Movie studios have done that for years with old movies. TCM
           | still shows Birth of a Nation and Gone with the Wind.
           | 
           | Edit: I saw further down that you've already done this! What
           | more is there to do?
        
           | qcnguy wrote:
           | There's no such risk so you're not going to get any sensible
           | ideas in response to this question. The goals of the project
           | are history, you already made that clear. There's nothing
           | more that needs to be done.
           | 
           | We all get that academics now exist in some kind of dystopian
           | horror where they can get transitively blamed for the
           | existence of anyone to the right of Lenin, but bear in mind:
           | 
           | 1. The people who might try to cancel you are idiots unworthy
           | of your respect, because if they're against this project,
           | they're against the study of history in its entirety.
           | 
           | 2. They will scream at you anyway no matter what you do.
           | 
           | 3. You used (Swiss) taxpayer funds to develop these models.
           | There is no moral justification for withholding from the
           | public what they worked to pay for.
           | 
           | You already slathered your README with disclaimers even
           | though you didn't even release the model at all, just showed
           | a few examples of what it said - none of which are in any way
           | surprising. That is far more than enough. Just release the
           | models and if anyone complains, politely tell them to go
           | complain to the users.
        
           | pigpop wrote:
           | This is understandable and I think others ITT should
           | appreciate the legal and PR ramifications involved.
        
           | 999900000999 wrote:
           | Ok...
           | 
           | So as a black person should I demand that all books written
           | before the civil rights act be destroyed?
           | 
           | The past is messy. But it's the only way to learn anything.
           | 
           | All an LLM does it's take a bunch of existing texts and
           | rebundle them. Like it or not, the existing texts are still
           | there.
           | 
           | I understand an LLM that won't tell me how to do heart
           | surgery. But I can't fear one that might be less enlightened
           | on race issues. So many questions to ask! Hell, it's like
           | talking to older person in real life.
           | 
           | I don't expect a typical 90 year old to be the most
           | progressive person, but they're still worth listening too.
        
             | DGoettlich wrote:
             | we're on the same page.
        
               | 999900000999 wrote:
               | Although...
               | 
               | Self preservation is the first law of nature. If you
               | release the model someone will basically say you endorse
               | those views and you risk your funding being cut.
               | 
               | You created Pandora's box and now you're afraid of
               | opening it.
        
               | AmbroseBierce wrote:
               | They could add a text box where users have to explicitly
               | type the following words before it lets them interact in
               | any way with the model: "I understand this model was
               | created with old texts so any racial or sexual statements
               | are a byproduct of their time an do not represent in any
               | way the views of the researchers".
               | 
               | That should be more than enough to clear any chance of
               | misunderstanding.
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | I would claim the public can easily handle something like
               | this, but the media wouldn't be able to resist.
               | 
               | I could easily see a hit piece making its rounds on left
               | leaning media about the AI that re-animates the
               | problematic ideas of the past. "Just look at what it said
               | to my child, "<insert incredibly racist quote coerced out
               | of the LLM here>"!" Rolling stones would probably have a
               | front page piece on it, titled "AI resurrecting racism
               | and misogyny". There would _easily_ be enough there to
               | attract death threats to the developers, if it made its
               | rounds on twitter.
               | 
               | "Platforming ideas" would be the issue that people would
               | have.
        
               | DGoettlich wrote:
               | i think we (whole section) are just talking past each
               | other - we never said we'll lock it away. it was an
               | announcement of a release, not a release. main purpose
               | for us was getting feedback on the methodological
               | aspects, as we clearly state. i understand you guys just
               | wanted to talk to the thing though.
        
           | diamond559 wrote:
           | Yet your project relies on letting an llm synthesize
           | historical documents and presenting itself as some sort of
           | expert from the time? You are aware of the hallucination
           | rates surely but don't care whether the information your
           | university presents is accurate or are you going to monitor
           | all output from your llm?
        
         | pizzathyme wrote:
         | They did mean you, they just meant "imagine" very literally!
        
       | nospice wrote:
       | I'm surprised you can do this with a relatively modest corpus of
       | text (compared to the petabytes you can vacuum up from modern
       | books, Wikipedia, and random websites). But if it works, that's
       | actually fantastic, because it lets you answer some interesting
       | questions about LLMs being able to make new discoveries or
       | transcend the training set in other ways. Forget relativity: can
       | an LLM trained on this data notice any inconsistencies in its
       | scientific knowledge, devise experiments that challenge them, and
       | then interpret the results? Can it intuit about the halting
       | problem? Theorize about the structure of the atom?...
       | 
       | Of course, if it fails, the counterpoint will be "you just need
       | more training data", but still - I would love to play with this.
        
         | andy99 wrote:
         | The chinchilla paper says the "optimal" training data set size
         | is about 20x the number of parameters (in tokens), see table 3:
         | https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.15556
         | 
         | Here they do 80B tokens for a 4B model.
        
           | EvgeniyZh wrote:
           | It's worth noting that this is "compute-bound optimal", i.e.,
           | given fixed compute, the optimal choice is 20:1.
           | 
           | Under Chinchilla model the larger model always performs
           | better than the small one if trained on the same amount of
           | data. I'm not sure if it is true empirically, and probably
           | 1-10B is a good guess for how large the model trained on 80B
           | tokens should be.
           | 
           | Similarly, the small models continue to improve beyond 20:1
           | ratio, and current models are trained on much more data. You
           | could train a better performing model using the same compute,
           | but it would be larger which is not always desirable.
        
         | Aerolfos wrote:
         | > https://github.com/DGoettlich/history-
         | llms/blob/main/ranke-4...
         | 
         | Given the training notes, it seems like you _can 't_ get the
         | performance they give examples of?
         | 
         | I'm not sure about the exact details but there is some kind of
         | targetted distillation of GPT-5 involved to try and get more
         | conversational text and better performance. Which seems a bit
         | iffy to me.
        
           | DGoettlich wrote:
           | Thanks for the comment. Could you elaborate on what you find
           | iffy about our approach? I'm sure we can improve!
        
       | TZubiri wrote:
       | hi, can I have latin only LLM? It can be latin plus translations
       | (source and destination).
       | 
       | May be too small a corpus, but I would like that very much anyhow
        
       | monegator wrote:
       | I hereby declare that _ANYTHING_ other than the mainstream tools
       | (GPT, Claude, ...) is an incredibly interesting and legit use of
       | LLMs.
        
       | anovikov wrote:
       | That Adolf Hitler seems to be a hallucination. There's totally
       | nothing googlable about him. Also what could be the language his
       | works were translated _from_ , into German?
        
         | sodafountan wrote:
         | I believe that's one of the primary issues LLMs aim to address.
         | Many historical texts aren't directly Googleable because they
         | haven't been converted to HTML, a format that Google can parse.
        
       | p0w3n3d wrote:
       | I'd love to see the LLM trained on 1600s-1800s texts that would
       | use the old English, and especially Polish which I am interested
       | in.
       | 
       | Imagine speaking with Shakespearean person, or the Mickiewicz
       | (for Polish)
       | 
       | I guess there is not so much text from that time though...
        
       | mleroy wrote:
       | Ontologically, this historical model understands the categories
       | of "Man" and "Woman" just as well as a modern model does. The
       | difference lies entirely in the attributes attached to those
       | categories. The sexism is a faithful map of that era's
       | statistical distribution.
       | 
       | You could RAG-feed this model the facts of WWII, and it would
       | technically "know" about Hitler. But it wouldn't share the modern
       | sentiment or gravity. In its latent space, the vector for
       | "Hitler" has no semantic proximity to "Evil".
        
         | arowthway wrote:
         | I think much of the semantic proximity to evil can be derived
         | straight from the facts? Imagine telling pre-1913 person about
         | the holocaust.
        
       | thesumofall wrote:
       | While obvious, it's still interesting that its morals and values
       | seem to derive from the texts it has ingested. Does that mean
       | modern LLMs cannot challenge us beyond mere facts? Or does it
       | just mean that this small model is not smart enough to escape the
       | bias of its training data? Would it not be amazing if LLMs could
       | challenge us on our core beliefs?
        
       | alexgotoi wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | zkmon wrote:
       | Why does history end in 1913?
        
       | andai wrote:
       | I had considered this task infeasible, due to a relative lack of
       | training data. After all, isn't the received wisdom that you must
       | shove every scrap of Common Crawl into your pre-training or
       | you're doing it wrong? ;)
       | 
       | But reading the outputs here, it would appear that quality has
       | won out over quantity after all!
        
       | casey2 wrote:
       | I'd be very surprised if this is clean of post-1913 text. Overall
       | I'm very interested in talking to this thing and seeing how much
       | difference writing in a modern style vs and older one makes to
       | it's responses.
        
       | DonHopkins wrote:
       | I'd love for Netflix or other streaming movie and series services
       | to provide chat bots that you could ask questions about
       | characters and plot points up to where you have watched.
       | 
       | Provide it with the closed captions and other timestamped data
       | like scenes and character summaries (all that is currently known
       | but no more) up to the current time, and it won't reveal any
       | spoilers, just fill you in on what you didn't pick up or
       | remember.
        
       | dr_dshiv wrote:
       | Everyone learns that the renaissance was sparked by the
       | translation of Ancient Greek works.
       | 
       | But few know that the Renaissance was written in Latin -- and has
       | barely been translated. Less than 3% of <1700 books have been
       | translated--and less than 30% have ever been scanned.
       | 
       | I'm working on a project to change that. Research blog at
       | www.SecondRenaissance.ai -- we are starting by scanning and
       | translating thousands of books at the _Embassy of the Free Mind_
       | in Amsterdam, a UNESCO-recognized rare book library.
       | 
       | We want to make ancient texts accessible to people and AI.
       | 
       | If this work resonates with you, please do reach out:
       | Derek@ancientwisdomtrust.org
        
         | j-bos wrote:
         | This ia very cool but should go in a Show HN post as per HN
         | rules. All the best!
        
           | dr_dshiv wrote:
           | Just read the rules again-- was something inappropriate?
           | Seemed relevant
        
             | j-bos wrote:
             | I can see you being right, I didn't make the connection
             | with 20th,19th century documents and the comment felt
             | disconnected from the thread. Either way, very cool
             | project, worth a show hn post.
        
         | carlosjobim wrote:
         | Amazing project!
         | 
         | May I ask you, why are you publishing the translations as PDF
         | files, instead of the more accessible ePub format?
        
           | dr_dshiv wrote:
           | Will add, great point.
        
       | bondarchuk wrote:
       | > _Historical texts contain racism, antisemitism, misogyny,
       | imperialist views. The models will reproduce these views because
       | they 're in the training data. This isn't a flaw, but a crucial
       | feature--understanding how such views were articulated and
       | normalized is crucial to understanding how they took hold._
       | 
       | Yes!
       | 
       | > _We 're developing a responsible access framework that makes
       | models available to researchers for scholarly purposes while
       | preventing misuse._
       | 
       | Noooooo!
       | 
       | So is the model going to be publicly available, just like those
       | dangerous pre-1913 texts, or not?
        
         | p-e-w wrote:
         | It's as if every researcher in this field is getting high on
         | the small amount of power they have from denying others access
         | to their results. I've never been as unimpressed by scientists
         | as I have been in the past five years or so.
         | 
         | "We've created something so dangerous that we couldn't
         | _possibly_ live with the moral burden of knowing that the wrong
         | people (which are never us, of course) might get their hands on
         | it, so with a heavy heart, we decided that we cannot just
         | publish it."
         | 
         | Meanwhile, anyone can hop on an online journal and for a
         | nominal fee read articles describing how to genetically
         | engineer deadly viruses, how to synthesize poisons, and all
         | kinds of other stuff that is far more dangerous than what these
         | LARPers have cooked up.
        
           | physicsguy wrote:
           | > It's as if every researcher in this field is getting high
           | on the small amount of power they have from denying others
           | access to their results. I've never been as unimpressed by
           | scientists as I have been in the past five years or so.
           | 
           | This is absolutely nothing new. With experimental things,
           | it's non uncommon for a lab to develop a new technique and
           | omit slight but important details to give them a competitive
           | advantage. Similarly in the simulation/modelling space it's
           | been common for years for researchers to not publish their
           | research software. There's been a lot of lobbying on that
           | side by groups such as the Software Sustainability Institute
           | and Research Software Engineer organisations like RSE UK and
           | RSE US, but there's a lot of researchers that just think that
           | they shouldn't have to do it, even when publicly funded.
        
             | p-e-w wrote:
             | > With experimental things, it's non uncommon for a lab to
             | develop a new technique and omit slight but important
             | details to give them a competitive advantage.
             | 
             | Yes, to give them a competitive advantage. Not to LARP as
             | morality police.
             | 
             | There's a big difference between the two. I take greed over
             | self-righteousness any day.
        
               | physicsguy wrote:
               | I've heard people say that they're not going to release
               | their software because people wouldn't know how to use
               | it! I'm not sure the motivation really matters more than
               | the end result though.
        
           | patapong wrote:
           | I think it's more likely they are terrified of someone making
           | a prompt that gets the model to say something racist or
           | problematic (which shouldn't be too hard), and the backlash
           | they could receive as a result of that.
        
             | p-e-w wrote:
             | Is there anyone with a spine left in science? Or are they
             | all ruled by fear of what might be said if whatever might
             | happen?
        
               | ACCount37 wrote:
               | Selection effects. If showing that you have a spine means
               | getting growth opportunities denied to you, and not
               | paying lip service to current politics in grant
               | applications means not getting grants, then anyone with a
               | spine would tend to leave the field behind.
        
               | paddleon wrote:
               | maybe they are concerned by the widespread adoption of
               | the attitude you are taking-- make a very strong
               | accusation, then when it was pointed out that the
               | accusation might be off base, continue to attack.
               | 
               | This constant demonization of everyone who disagrees with
               | you, makes me wonder if 28 Days wasn't more true than we
               | thought, we are all turning into rage zombies.
               | 
               | p-e-w, I'm reacting to much more than your comments.
               | Maybe you aren't totally infected yet, who knows. Maybe
               | you heal.
               | 
               | I am reacting to the pandemic, of which you were
               | demonstrating symptoms.
        
             | isolli wrote:
             | Is it a base model, or did it get some RLHF on top?
             | Releasing a base model is _always_ dangerous.
             | 
             | The French released a preview of an AI meant to support
             | public education, but they released the base model, with
             | unsurprising effects [0]
             | 
             | [0] https://www.leparisien.fr/high-tech/inutile-et-stupide-
             | lia-g...
             | 
             | (no English source, unfortunately, but the title translates
             | as: ""Useless and stupid": French generative AI Lucie,
             | backed by the government, mocked for its numerous bugs")
        
           | paddleon wrote:
           | > "We've created something so dangerous that we couldn't
           | possibly live with the moral burden of knowing that the wrong
           | people (which are never us, of course) might get their hands
           | on it, so with a heavy heart, we decided that we cannot just
           | publish it."
           | 
           | Or, how about, "If we release this as is, then some people
           | will intentionally mis-use it and create a lot of bad press
           | for us. Then our project will get shut down and we lose our
           | jobs"
           | 
           | Be careful assuming it is a power trip when it might be a
           | fear trip.
           | 
           | I've never been as unimpressed by society as I have been in
           | the last 5 years or so.
        
             | xpe wrote:
             | > Be careful assuming it is a power trip when       > it
             | might be a fear trip.       >       > I've never been as
             | unimpressed by society as       > I have been in the last 5
             | years or so.
             | 
             | Is the second sentence connected to the first? Help me
             | understand?
             | 
             | When I see individuals acting out of fear, I try not to
             | blame them. Fear triggers deep instinctual responses. For
             | example, to a first approximation, a particular individual
             | operating in full-on fight-or-flight mode does not have
             | free will. There is a spectrum here. Here's a claim, which
             | seems mostly true: the more we can slow down impulsive
             | actions, the more hope we have for cultural progress.
             | 
             | When I think of cultural failings, I try to criticize areas
             | where culture could realistically do better. I think of
             | areas where we (collectively) have the tools and potential
             | to do better. Areas where thoughtful actions by some people
             | turn into a virtuous snowball. We can't wait for a single
             | hero, though it helps to create conditions so that we have
             | more effective leaders.
             | 
             | One massive culture failing I see -- that could be
             | dramatically improved -- is this: being lulled into shallow
             | contentment (i.e. via entertainment, power seeking, or
             | material possessions) at the expense of (i) building deep
             | and meaningful social connections and (ii) using our
             | advantages to give back to people all over the world.
        
           | f13f1f1f1 wrote:
           | Scientists have always been generally self interested amoral
           | cowards, just like every other person. They aren't a unique
           | or higher form of human.
        
           | xpe wrote:
           | > It's as if every researcher in this field is getting high
           | on the small amount of power they have from denying others
           | access to their results.
           | 
           | Even if I give the comment a lot of wiggle room (such as
           | changing "every" to "many"), I don't think even a watered-
           | down version of this hypothesis passes Occam's razor. There
           | are more plausible explanations, including (1) genuine
           | concern by the authors; (2) academic pressures and
           | constraints; (c) reputational concerns; (d) self-interest to
           | embargo underlying data so they have time to be the first to
           | write-it-up. To my eye, none of these fit the category of
           | "getting high on power".
           | 
           | Also, patience is warranted. We haven't seen what _these_
           | researchers are doing to release -- and from what I can tell,
           | they haven 't said yet. At the moment I see "Repositories
           | (coming soon)" on their GitHub page.
        
           | everythingfine9 wrote:
           | Wow, this is needlessly antagonistic. Given the emergence of
           | online communities that bond on conspiracy theories and
           | racist philosophies in the 20th century, it's not hard to
           | imagine the consequences of widely disseminating an LLM that
           | could be used to propagate and further these discredited (for
           | example, racial) scientific theories for bad ends by
           | uneducated people in these online communities.
           | 
           | We can debate on whether it's good or not, but ultimately
           | they're publishing it and in some very small way responsible
           | for some of its ends. At least that's how I can see their
           | interest in disseminating the use of the LLM through a
           | responsible framework.
        
             | DGoettlich wrote:
             | thanks. i think this just took on a weird dynamic. we never
             | said we'd lock the model away. not sure how this impression
             | seems to have emerged for some. that aside, it was an
             | announcement of a release, not a release. the main purpose
             | was gathering feedback on our methodology. standard
             | procedure in our domain is to first gather criticism,
             | incorporate it, then publish results. but i understand
             | people just wanted to talk to it. fair enough!
        
         | DGoettlich wrote:
         | fully understand you. we'd like to provide access but also
         | guard against misrepresentations of our projects goals by
         | pointing to e.g. racist generations. if you have thoughts on
         | how we should do that, perhaps you could reach out at history-
         | llms@econ.uzh.ch ? thanks in advance!
        
           | myrmidon wrote:
           | What is your worst-case scenario here?
           | 
           | Something like a pop-sci article along the lines of "Mad
           | scientists create racist, imperialistic AI"?
           | 
           | I honestly don't see publication of the weights as a relevant
           | risk factor, because sensationalist misrepresentation is
           | trivially possible with the given example responses alone.
           | 
           | I don't think such pseudo-malicious misrepresentation of
           | scientific research can be reliably prevented anyway, and the
           | disclaimers make your stance very clear.
           | 
           | On the other hand, publishing weights might lead to
           | interesting insights from others tinkering with the models. A
           | good example for this would be the published word prevalence
           | data (M. Brysbaert et al @Ghent University) that led to
           | interesting follow-ups like this:
           | https://observablehq.com/@yurivish/words
           | 
           | I hope you can get the models out in some form, would be a
           | waste not to, but congratulations on a fascinating project
           | regardless!
        
             | schlauerfox wrote:
             | It seems like if there is an obvious misuse of a tool, one
             | has a moral imperative to restrict use of the tool.
        
               | timschmidt wrote:
               | Every tool can be misused. Hammers are as good for
               | bashing heads as building houses. Restricting hammers
               | would be silly and counterproductive.
        
               | adaml_623 wrote:
               | Yes but if you are building an voice activated autonomous
               | flying hammer then you either want it to be very good at
               | differentiating heads from hammers OR you should restrict
               | its use.
        
               | timschmidt wrote:
               | OR you respect individual liberty and agency, hold
               | individuals responsible for their actions, instead of
               | tools, and avoid becoming everyone's condescending nanny.
               | 
               | Your pre-judgement of acceptable hammer uses would rob
               | hammer owners of responsible and justified self-defense
               | and defense of others in situations in which there are no
               | other options, as well as other legally and socially
               | accepted uses which do not fit your pre-conceived ideas.
        
           | superxpro12 wrote:
           | Perhaps you could detect these... "dated"... conclusions and
           | prepend a warning to the responses? IDK.
           | 
           | I think the uncensored response is still valuable, with
           | context. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to
           | repeat it" sort of thing.
        
           | bondarchuk wrote:
           | You can guard against misrepresentations of your goals by
           | stating your goals clearly, which you already do. Any further
           | misrepresentation is going to be either malicious or idiotic,
           | a university should simply be able to deal with that.
           | 
           | Edit: just thought of a practical step you can take: host it
           | somewhere else than github. _If_ there 's ever going to be a
           | backlash the microsoft moderators might not take too kindly
           | to the stuff about e.g. homosexuality, no matter how
           | academic.
        
         | xpe wrote:
         | > So is the model going to be publicly available, just like
         | those dangerous pre-1913 texts, or not?
         | 
         | 1. This implies a false equivalence. Releasing a new
         | interactive AI model is indeed different in significant and
         | practical ways from the status quo. Yes, there are already-
         | released historical texts. The rational thing to do is weigh
         | the impacts of introducing _another_ thing.
         | 
         | 2. Some people have a tendency to say "release everything" as
         | if open-source software is equivalent to open-weights models.
         | They aren't. They are different enough to matter.
         | 
         | 3. Rhetorically, the quote across comes across as a pressure
         | tactic. When I hear "are you going to do this or not?" I
         | cringe.
         | 
         | 4. The quote above feels presumptive to me, as if the commenter
         | is owed something from the history-llms project.
         | 
         | 5. People are rightfully bothered that Big Tech has vacuumed up
         | public domain and even private information and turned it into a
         | profit center. But we're talking about a university project
         | with (let's be charitable) legitimate concerns about misuse.
         | 
         | 6. There seems to be a lack of curiosity in play. I'd much
         | rather see people asking e.g. "What factors are influencing
         | your decision about publishing your underlying models?"
         | 
         | 7. There are people who have locked-in a view that says AI-
         | safety perspectives are categorically invalid. Accordingly,
         | they have almost a knee-jerk reaction against even talk of
         | "let's think about the implications before we release this."
         | 
         | 8. This one might explain and underly most of the other points
         | above. I see signs of a deeper problem at work here. Hiding
         | behind convenient oversimplifications to justify what one wants
         | does not make a sound moral argument; it is motivated reasoning
         | a.k.a. psychological justification.
        
           | DGoettlich wrote:
           | well put.
        
         | Sprotch wrote:
         | I suspect you will find a lot less of these "bad things" than
         | anticipated. That is why the model should actually be freely
         | available rather than restricted based on pre-conceived notions
         | that will, I am sure, prove inaccurate.
        
       | holyknight wrote:
       | wow amazing idea
        
       | Agraillo wrote:
       | > Modern LLMs suffer from hindsight contamination. GPT-5 knows
       | how the story ends--WWI, the League's failure, the Spanish flu.
       | This knowledge inevitably shapes responses, even when instructed
       | to "forget.
       | 
       | > Our data comes from more than 20 open-source datasets of
       | historical books and newspapers. ... We currently do not
       | deduplicate the data. The reason is that if documents show up in
       | multiple datasets, they also had greater circulation
       | historically. By leaving these duplicates in the data, we expect
       | the model will be more strongly influenced by documents of
       | greater historical importance.
       | 
       | I found these claims contradictory. Many books that modern
       | readers consider historically significant had only niche
       | circulation at the time of publishing. A quick inquiry likely
       | points to later works by Nietzsche and Marx's Das Kapital.
       | They're possible subjects to the duplication likely influencing
       | the model's responses as if they had been widely known at the
       | time
        
       | moffkalast wrote:
       | > trained from scratch on 80B tokens of historical data
       | 
       | How can this thing possibly be even remotely coherent with just
       | fine tuning amounts of data used for pretraining?
        
       | r0x0r007 wrote:
       | ffs, to find out what figures from the past thought and how they
       | felt about the world, maybe we read some of their books, we will
       | get the context. Don't prompt or train LLM to do it and consider
       | it the hottest thing since MCP. Besides, what's the point? To
       | teach younger generations a made up perspective of historic
       | figures? Who guarantees the correctness/factuality? We will have
       | students chatting with made up Hitler justifying his actions. So
       | much AI slop everywhere.
        
       | delis-thumbs-7e wrote:
       | Isn't there obvious problems baked into this approach, if this is
       | used for anything but fun? LLM's lie and fake facts all the time,
       | they are also masters at enforcing the users bias, even
       | unconscious ones. How even a professor of history could ensure
       | that the generated text is actually based on the training
       | material and representative of the feelings and opinions of the
       | given time period, not enforcing his biases toward popular topics
       | of the day?
       | 
       | You can't, it is impossible. That will always be an issue as long
       | as this models are black boxes and trained the way they are. So
       | maybe you can use this for role playing, but I wouldn't trust a
       | word it says.
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | To me it is pretty clear that it's being used for fun. I
         | personally like reading nineteenth century novels more than
         | more recent novels (I especially like the style of science
         | fiction by Jules Verne). What if the model can generate text in
         | that style I like?
        
       | usernamed7 wrote:
       | > We're developing a responsible access framework that makes
       | models available to researchers for scholarly purposes while
       | preventing misuse.
       | 
       | oh COME ON... "AI safety" is getting out of hand.
        
       | Departed7405 wrote:
       | Awesome. Can't wait to try and ask it to predict the 20th century
       | based on said events. Model size is small, which is great as I
       | can run it anywhere, but at the same time reasoning might not be
       | great.
        
       | arikrak wrote:
       | I wouldn't have expected there to be enough text from before 1913
       | to properly train a model, it seemed like they needed an internet
       | of text to train the first successful LLMs?
        
         | alansaber wrote:
         | This model is more comparable to GPT-2 than anything we use
         | now.
        
       | btrettel wrote:
       | This reminded me of some earlier discussion on Hacker News about
       | using LLMs trained on old texts to determine novelty and
       | obviousness of a patent application:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43440273
        
       | sbmthakur wrote:
       | Someone suggested a nice thought experiment - train LLMs on all
       | Physics before quantum physics was discovered. If the LLM can see
       | still figure out the latter then certainly we have achieved some
       | success in the space.
        
       | davidpfarrell wrote:
       | Can't wait for all the syncopated "Thou dost well to question
       | that" responses!
        
       | ulbu wrote:
       | for anyone moaning the plight that it's not accessible to you:
       | they are historians, I think they're more educated in matters of
       | historical mistake than you or me. playing safe is simply
       | prudence. it is sorely lacking in the American approach to
       | technology. prevention is the best medicine.
        
       | PeterStuer wrote:
       | How does it do on Python coding? Not 100% troll, cross domain
       | coherence is a thing.
        
       | shireboy wrote:
       | Fascinating llm use case I never really thought about til now.
       | I'd love to converse with different eras and also do gap analysis
       | with present time - what modern advances could have come earlier,
       | happened differently etc.
        
       | elestor wrote:
       | Excuse me if it's obvious, but how could I run this? I have run
       | local LLMs before, but only have very minimal experience using
       | ollama run and that's about it. This seems very interesting so
       | I'd like to try it.
        
       | erichocean wrote:
       | I would love to see this done, by year.
       | 
       | "Give me an LLM from 1928."
       | 
       | etc.
        
       | flux3125 wrote:
       | Once I had an interesting interaction with llama 3.1, where I
       | pretended to be someone from like 100 years in the future,
       | claiming it was part of a "historical research initiative
       | conducted by Quantum (formerly Meta), aimed at documenting how
       | early intelligent systems perceived humanity and its future." It
       | became really interested, asking about how humanity had evolved
       | and things like that. Then I kept playing along with different
       | answers, from apocalyptic scenarios to others where AI gained
       | consciousness and humans and machines have equal rights. It was
       | fascinating to observe its reaction to each scenario
        
       | underfox wrote:
       | > [They aren't] perfect mirrors of "public opinion" (they
       | represent published text, which skews educated and toward
       | dominant viewpoints)
       | 
       | Really good point that I don't think I would've considered on my
       | own. Easy to take for granted how easy it is to share information
       | (for better or worse) now, but pre-1913 there were far more
       | structural and societal barriers to doing the same.
        
       | kldg wrote:
       | Very neat! I've thought about this with frontier models because
       | they're ignorant of recent events, though it's too bad old
       | frontier models just kind of disappear into the aether when a
       | company moves on to the next iteration. Every company's frontier
       | model today is a time capsule for the future. There should
       | probably be some kind of preservation attempts made early so they
       | don't wind up simply deleted; once we're in Internet time,
       | sifting through the data to ensure scrapes are accurately dated
       | becomes a nightmare unless you're doing your own regular Internet
       | scrapes over a long time.
       | 
       | It would be nice to go back substantially further, though it's
       | not too far back that the commoner becomes voiceless in history
       | and we just get a bunch of politics and academia. Great job; look
       | forward to testing it out.
        
       | Muskwalker wrote:
       | So, could this be an example of an LLM trained fully on public
       | domain copyright-expired data? Or is this not intended to be the
       | case.
        
         | DGoettlich wrote:
         | data is 100% public domain.
        
       | WhitneyLand wrote:
       | Why not use these as a benchmark for LLM ability to make
       | breakthrough discoveries?
       | 
       | For example prompt the 1913 model to try and "Invent a new theory
       | of gravity that doesn't conflict with special relativity"
       | 
       | Would it be able to eventually get to GR? If not, could finding
       | out why not illuminate important weaknesses.
        
       | dkalola wrote:
       | How can we interact with such models? Is there a web application
       | interface?
        
       | Aeroi wrote:
       | i feel like this would be super useful for unique marketing copy
       | and writing. The responses sound so sophisticated like I read it
       | in my grandfather's tone and cadence.
        
       | Sprotch wrote:
       | This is a brilliant idea. We have lots of erroneous ideas about
       | the views and thoughts people had in the past. This will show we
       | are still, actually, largely similar. Hopefully more and more of
       | these historical LLMs appear.
        
       | diamond559 wrote:
       | Research credits from lambda "ai" huh, where's your funding
       | coming from this again? All to provide inaccurate slop to
       | unwitting students, you should be ashamed of yourselves.
        
       | smugtrain wrote:
       | This would actually be a wonderful way to learn physics, before
       | GR and quantum mechanics
        
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