[HN Gopher] Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warni...
___________________________________________________________________
Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued
https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve...
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/weather-disaster/tsu...
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureI...
https://www.tsunami.gov/?p=PHEB/2025/12/08/25342050/2/WEPA40
Author : lattis
Score : 238 points
Date : 2025-12-08 14:50 UTC (8 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www3.nhk.or.jp)
(TXT) w3m dump (www3.nhk.or.jp)
| ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
| Damn. That sounds bad. Hope it didn't trigger a tsunami.
|
| I guess we'll know, soon.
| octaane wrote:
| https://www.tsunami.gov/?p=PHEB/2025/12/08/25342050/2/WEPA40
|
| Shouldn't be too bad; USGS forecasts up to 1 meter tsunami.
| e12e wrote:
| Nhk has some more information - looks like the areas hardest
| hit will have been hit by now, with 3m high waves:
|
| https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/weather-disaster/tsu...
| ekianjo wrote:
| No, estimated height has nothing to do with actual
| measurements
| ctxc wrote:
| Can you elaborate?
| Kye wrote:
| 1 meter is bad. That's a lot of water full of things you don't
| want slamming into you or any structure. Then it comes back
| full of even worse things.
| belorn wrote:
| Is 1 meter bad? In context it seems to be missing what kind
| of waves normally hit the coast line, and what kind tide
| differences exist, and what the current water level is when
| the wave hit.
|
| What is a typical maximum wave height during hurricane
| seasons in north of japan?
| astrobe_ wrote:
| Apparently 2 meters is : _A 2 meters (6 ft 7 in) high
| tsunami hit Chiba Prefecture about 2+1/2 hours after the
| quake, causing heavy damage to cities such as Asahi._
| (Tohoku 2011) [1]
|
| WRT comparison with hurricane waves, I assume they carry a
| lot less energy than tsunami's, because they are
| "superficial waves" - caused by the friction of the wind on
| the water - whereas a tsunami wave is caused by the
| movement of a huge mass of mater.
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthqua
| ke_an...
| Kye wrote:
| People vastly underestimate the danger of a moving body
| of water in general, but especially when that water is
| where it isn't normally. Even a relatively tame storm
| surge picks up sewage, dangerous chemicals, debris, and
| confused wild animals.
| kachapopopow wrote:
| When I was in japan the earthquakes were oddly exciting rather
| than scary, had three different ones while I was there that
| visibly shook rather heavy objects around. Two being in a
| building and one outside.
|
| It was rather interesting seeing things shift around leaving a
| permanent imprint that there was in-fact an earthquake and it
| wasn't some kind of illusion when earthquakes these size couple
| of decades ago would cause non zero amount of damage.
|
| Although, I am scared for tokyo about the predicted earthquake
| that would push all these systems near the breaking point and
| even beyond it, but hopefully the past in not prediction of the
| feature and instead it'll just be a lot of smaller earthquakes.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Funny, I had the exact opposite reaction. Things I had taken
| for granted all my life suddenly became un-anchored and as a
| result so did I. I have never felt an actual feeling of panic
| that threatened to overwhelm me before that happened and it was
| a very mild earthquake. I had to _really_ force myself to calm
| down and stay rational and do what was the safest rather than
| to give in to the 'flee' reflex.
|
| The problem with earthquakes is when they start you know you're
| in one but you have no idea where you're headed, whether this
| is as bad as it gets or whether you're going to end up in a
| pile of collapsed rubble and what is the best decision greatly
| hinges on something you can't know ahead of time, which is the
| peak magnitude and the kind of earthquake you are experiencing.
| kachapopopow wrote:
| I always was in one of the major cities so I had full
| confidence in them. Lacking the natural fear of death
| probably has something to do with it as well.
| embedding-shape wrote:
| What seems to matter greatly how affect someone is by an
| earthquake, seems to also be related to how used people are
| to being unbalanced. I was once with a group of friends who
| most of them were skaters and snowboarders, so used to
| thinking about balance and being in situations where they
| can't do much about it, standing on relatively unbalanced
| things. During the earthquake, similarly to parent, most of
| them were fascinated, while the non-skaters quickly
| panicked and threw themselves on the ground.
|
| Of course, just an anecdote, and those people could also
| have a general lack of fear of death, but the difference
| between the two of you made me think of the event again.
| kachapopopow wrote:
| Well you actually bring up a very good point, people who
| do extreme things know full well that one mistake and
| they can hit their head and never walk again, feeling the
| same fear while knowing that you are not in any danger is
| what creates excitement in a way.
| jacquesm wrote:
| I knew a woman like that.
| rjsw wrote:
| I ski. Responding to being out of balance is just
| automatic, it doesn't come from needing to think about
| it.
|
| It is a transferable skill. Have tried ice skating twice,
| could just do it fine.
| throwawaylaptop wrote:
| 99% of your problem can be solved by studying statistics for
| your area, and having a plan... So that you aren't just at
| the whims of the moment when it's actually happening.
| mikestorrent wrote:
| What kinds of statistics is it that one should study?
|
| Having a bugout bag and emergency supplies and water on
| hand is a reasonable idea everyone with the means ought to
| do; it's a good thing to not have to depend on gov't
| intervention (not because of a lack of trust, but because
| the general public will, and the potential for mob
| situations is high).
|
| But what should I have read about to know what to do?
| Topological maps and flood planes?
| throwawaylaptop wrote:
| Op seemed to be freaked out about unknowns.
|
| So my solution would be to look at historical data for
| earth quakes in his area so he knows basically what to
| expect.. that way when it starts shaking, he doesn't
| think "omg how big will this be?" And instead can know
| "ok this will be between 2.9 and 3.5 like the last 500
| quakes in this area for 50+ years. Thank God no one has
| ever died in this area from an earthquake"
|
| And then he can also know that he is prepared for even a
| much bigger quake in his area before... Because he
| prepared something.
|
| This is obvious stuff. In case the guy I wrote to didn't
| know, now he does. If he wants to dwell in his
| neuroticism he can.
| rdtsc wrote:
| > Things I had taken for granted all my life suddenly became
| un-anchored and as a result so did I.
|
| Same for me. If you don't grow up with a number of small
| regular quakes or live in high-rise building that sways with
| the wind, it's pretty unsettling to feel, what you always
| know as stable hard ground, solid buildings all of the sudden
| bouncing around. Rationally you know what it is and how it
| works but it's still scary.
| dyauspitr wrote:
| I lived in California for a while. I've always found
| earthquakes exciting. Probably because I trust the building
| codes and the ones I experienced were pretty mild.
| cedws wrote:
| I was secretly hoping for a 'proper' earthquake when I was
| living in Japan. Obviously I didn't want anybody to get hurt or
| anything to get damaged, but I only ever got to feel a few ~M3
| earthquakes which were just slight bumps I felt when laying in
| bed.
| cpncrunch wrote:
| 0.3-1m.
| linhns wrote:
| Epicentre very deep underground, so shouldn't be dangerous aside
| from small tsunamis.
| nonethewiser wrote:
| Gojira kimasu.
| onceiwasthere wrote:
| Your comment prompted me to go read about epicenters and I
| learned something new. The hypocenter of an earthquake is
| apparently the point of origin of the earthquake and the
| epicenter is the point on the earth's surface directly above
| the hypocenter. Had never heard of a hypocenter before.
| rpozarickij wrote:
| I didn't know about hypocenter before too but it's neat how
| you can sometimes deduce the meaning of a word from its parts
| (because "hypo" means "under"/"below" in Greek, like in
| hypodermic, hypoglycaemia, etc).
| macintux wrote:
| The class wasn't as interesting as I'd hoped, in part
| because it seemed to attract older kids hoping for an easy
| grade, but in my high school we had an etymology class.
|
| (My school also offered Latin, but etymology seemed a much
| more direct/easier way to get the same basics. I just wish
| someone had taught me about demographics so I would have
| taken Spanish instead of German.)
| waldothedog wrote:
| But how much did they teach you about insects?
| Aachen wrote:
| Basically every language works that way? You can say
| underquake in English if you like, doesn't have to be
| Greek. In fact, it might make sense to pick a widely
| understood language rather than one with ~13 million
| speakers
| LadyCailin wrote:
| Interestingly, I learned the word hypocenter in Japan as
| well, in a much more sobering way. The atom bomb that hit
| Hiroshima exploded above the ground, and the building
| directly under that, where the blast would have hit first, is
| called the hypocenter.
| lagniappe wrote:
| Somewhat offtopic curiosity: Is there anything that Japanese
| fishkeepers do to keep the water and livestock inside the tank
| during earthquakes? Here we have no such risk for earthquakes, so
| a 600lb tank of water 4ft off the ground isn't much of an issue,
| even when bumped. I'd imagine earthquakes of this frequency could
| complicate that.
| awirth wrote:
| I have a 60L fish tank in my Tokyo apartment on around the 10th
| floor. It's sitting on stand that is not bolted to the wall. I
| have several friends with similar setups.
|
| In the last 6 years there have been two or three earthquakes
| that caused enough water to slosh on to the floor.
|
| Of those only the 2021 Fukushima earthquake caused any fish to
| slosh out - perhaps 10 medaka if I recall correctly. Luckily I
| was home and I was able to save all the fish, however there was
| one adult red cherry shrimp that didn't make it because I had
| trouble picking it up off the floor. I cleaned up the water
| with some paper towels and it didn't seem to cause any lasting
| damage.
|
| I think if I had a 600 lb (270L?) tank or expensive fish though
| I would probably have a different perspective.
| netcraft wrote:
| better link:
| https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000rtdt...
| dang wrote:
| (originally posted to
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46193413 but we've merged
| the threads)
| jeffbee wrote:
| Does anyone else find the way of using tsunami.gov totally
| baffling? It tells the user almost nothing, and the target of all
| the hrefs for the supposed messages listed in the map is just the
| tsunami.gov homepage again. The entire above-the-fold is occupied
| by the map, and the map tells the user nothing.
| oniony wrote:
| The map has pins for events. At this moment there is one off
| Japan and one off Alaska.
| ghjv wrote:
| anyone able to ping this to the lads at the National Design
| Studio?
| throwup238 wrote:
| This would be the tenth major earthquake (7+ magnitude) along the
| Pacific ring of fire this year.
|
| With the Kamchatka and other earthquakes in the news recently I
| had a fear that were building to some major event but turns out
| that this year is about average if not slightly below average for
| major quakes along the ring of fire.
| markus_zhang wrote:
| I heard that smaller (relative) earthquakes actually lower the
| prob of larger ones, so maybe it is a good thing? A bunch of
| 7.X earthquakes in the ocean are not going to be hugely
| destructive.
| jacquesm wrote:
| That's correct, if relatively small earthquakes would stop
| that could be the precursor to a much bigger one. It's like
| releasing tension gradually rather than all at once.
| tonmoy wrote:
| Isn't that a myth? Do you have any sources to back up your
| claim?
| indigodaddy wrote:
| Various scientists in this video. The video is a great
| watch btw.
|
| https://youtu.be/HBluLfX2F_k
|
| (stresses build up and are often released through many
| small, unfelt earthquakes (25:54). If these small
| movements don't dissipate the stress, it can accumulate
| and lead to a powerful chain reaction (26:25) *
| disclaimer I used YouTube's built-in AI to find/summarize
| the timestamps, as I couldn't remember offhand where it
| was when I previously watched this.
| mturmon wrote:
| I don't believe the video quite says this (I watched the
| relevant section).
|
| It's worth noting that they are mostly interested in
| critical phenomena in general, and earthquakes are kind
| of a drive-by application, treated along with fires and
| sand piles.
|
| They do hint around the edges, but they don't head-on
| make the claim _for earthquakes_ that small EQs
| _materially_ lessen stress buildup and thereby make
| larger EQ 's less likely.
|
| I was looking for a credential of one of the people they
| interview, to see if they are really a solid earth person
| or more of a critical phenomena person -- their names
| aren't easy to find. This particular myth ("small
| earthquakes relieve stress") is a bit of a stinker in the
| solid earth community, and I think a solid earth person
| would be quite careful about their words as they discuss
| this.
| indigodaddy wrote:
| I think you've summed it up correctly. It's not proof and
| some scientists claiming some things isn't the same as
| studies/evidence. However, is there evidence that it's
| not true? The fact is we do have these smaller movements
| and earthquakes quite regularly, so we don't really know
| what would happen after a long absence of them (do we? I
| suppose there are simulations perhaps that could be run?
| But I don't know that that's proof either way). To me
| though it makes a lot of sense that it would/could spur a
| huge event.
| __s wrote:
| Seems like it, & each rank is 30x more energy than the
| last[1]
|
| https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-
| fore... Suggests 5% for larger quake to follow within
| week. But overall most sources I could find suggested
| it's hard to know, needs more research
|
| 1: https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/10wecl8/d
| o_litt...
| jacquesm wrote:
| https://www.geo.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/en/new-study-connects-
| ear...
| criddell wrote:
| https://news.caloes.ca.gov/earthquake-myths-separating-
| fact-...
|
| Myth 5 is "Small Earthquakes Relieve Pressure and Prevent
| Larger Ones"
| jacquesm wrote:
| Myth: new knowledge never trumps old knowledge. Check the
| dates on those two publications.
| fc417fc802 wrote:
| GP is correct; I'm not sure why CA gov is calling that a
| myth (it's not). However keep in mind that it's not
| necessarily true 100% of the time. Or at least the things
| it might seem to imply at first glance aren't true - the
| presence or absence of small quakes in a given period
| doesn't necessarily tell you anything useful about the
| future.
| jacquesm wrote:
| Indeed. But I get why people are confused because it is a
| subtle difference between 'stress relieved through small
| earthquakes is stress expended' vs 'stress relieved
| through small earth quakes is not indicative of the
| magnitude of future events'.
|
| The long term absence of stress relief small quakes on a
| known fault line might be bad news, or no news at all,
| statistics are where the difference is here, not in
| particular events. See also, 'the big one' and various
| theories around it.
| mturmon wrote:
| I think you intended this to be a validation of the idea
| that small quakes relieve stress and therefore lower the
| chance of a large quake.
|
| The above link does not answer that question. It is
| relating stress release to "fault strength", or the
| maximum shear stress that can be withstood by the fault.
| There is an incidental relationship with depth that plays
| a role.
|
| The video linked nearby (on criticality) also does not
| address the question at issue.
|
| I'm only replying because I work adjacent to this area,
| and my understanding is that the idea that small EQ's
| release stress is a myth. Here [1] is another link,
| listed as #1 in the "Myths" category. And you can dig up
| quotes from none other than Lucy Jones [2] saying that
| this is a myth.
|
| I don't work directly in this area, so I'm not willing to
| say absolutely _no_. But I 'd really like to see a head-
| on reference supporting the claim that it's not a myth.
|
| [1] https://earthquakes.berkeley.edu/outreach/faq.html
|
| [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Jones
| fc417fc802 wrote:
| EQs are a release of energy. That energy is stored as
| stress prior to release. There is a finite amount of
| stored energy at any given time.
|
| So the statement "EQs release stress" is true and it
| follows that adding the modifier "small" to the front
| doesn't change this.
|
| It should also be immediately apparent that it would be
| very surprising if there were not statistical
| implications as a result of this. So surprising in fact
| that I would suggest that the burden of evidence should
| fall on those claiming that any such statistical effects
| are unexpected.
| numpad0 wrote:
| This type of argument is kind of logical but not so
| immediately useful. Earthquakes just happen and no one is
| involved in that process. There could still be the big
| one coming, or that one might have been defused by this
| one. No one knows.
| lostlogin wrote:
| > A bunch of 7.X earthquakes in the ocean are not going to be
| hugely destructive.
|
| New Zealand's 5th most deadly disaster was Christchurch's 6.2
| which killed 185 people. It was a shallow aftershock from a
| larger, less destructive quake.
|
| The damage was huge.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Christchurch_earthquake
| y1n0 wrote:
| The key phrase in the parent is "in the ocean"
| alex1138 wrote:
| Leading Sarah Wynn-Williams to decide Facebook was a great
| idea, to be able to contact people in an emergency, later
| got dissuaded, wrote a book
| https://www.amazon.com/Careless-People-Cautionary-Power-
| Idea...
| jansan wrote:
| That is correct, but OTOH there was a 7.3 foreshock two days
| before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
|
| So the only thing we can say for sure is that it is still
| extremely difficult to predict earthquakes.
| Someone wrote:
| On the one hand earthquakes remove tension from the earth's
| crust and release energy that can't be used in future shocks.
|
| On the other hand, if a shock doesn't release all energy it
| may come to rest in a relatively weak spot that will soon
| give away again
| (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_swarm: _"The
| Matsushiro swarm lasted from 1965 to 1967 and generated about
| 1 million earthquakes. This swarm had the peculiarity of
| being sited just under a seismological observatory installed
| in 1947 in a decommissioned military tunnel. It began in
| August 1965 with three earthquakes too weak to be felt, but
| three months later, a hundred earthquakes could be felt
| daily. On 17 April 1966, the observatory counted 6,780
| earthquakes, with 585 of them having a magnitude great enough
| to be felt, which means that an earthquake could be felt, on
| average, every two and a half minutes."_ )
|
| Because of that, I think an earthquake will increase the
| probability of one occurring again soon, but decrease its
| strength.
| xvedejas wrote:
| Almost all energy released in earthquakes is released in the
| biggest ones. No realistic number of smaller quakes is ever
| going to add up to even the single biggest earthquake ever
| recorded.
| almosthere wrote:
| It's probably related to a phenomenon we're not yet aware of.
| junon wrote:
| Like?
| doug713705 wrote:
| Alien invasion
| jibal wrote:
| It's probably not.
| bamboozled wrote:
| The year isn't over yet though ... Jgov said there is a
| slightly higher chance of an 8+ in the next few days. Hope not.
| tetris11 wrote:
| NHK (english):
| https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20251209_02/
|
| > The Japanese government set up a task force at the crisis
| management center in the prime minister's office at 11:16 p.m. on
| Monday in response to the earthquake.
|
| A thousand Naruto shadow-clones just got deployed. I'm not being
| cute, these guys are heroes and role-models to all.
| phantasmish wrote:
| I'm imagining the folks from Shin Godzilla.
|
| I assume that movie is for Japanese civil servants like the
| show Silicon Valley is for programmers. Stuff like the repeated
| meeting-room changes for no apparent reason reads as too
| specific and weird to be made-up.
| dang wrote:
| (Thanks for the link - we've since merged the threads to a
| submission of that one. I've included the other major links
| that people have been posting in the toptext.)
| stackghost wrote:
| What's a Naruto shadow clone? Google hits are just about a kids
| show.
| asdff wrote:
| That is the reference
| embedding-shape wrote:
| The Wikipedia redirect is apparently dead
| (https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Shadow_clone&redirect=no)
| and the main page for Naruto doesn't show anything about
| shadow clones.
|
| Care to explain the reference? Do people dress up like a
| character from the TV show and help out people or what's
| going on?
| foota wrote:
| It's an ability from the show:
| https://naruto.fandom.com/wiki/Shadow_Clone_Technique.
| opan wrote:
| It's a technique to temporarily make one or more duplicates
| of your body which can move independently and have your
| memories/abilities. A strong enough hit will dispel them, or
| the user can do it manually, after which the memories of what
| the clones did return to the user.
|
| The usage here by GP might just be because everyone looks/is-
| dressed the same and is working in unison, and since they're
| Japanese, anime comes to mind. In the show, Naruto often uses
| shadow clones to pull off more complex techniques, throwing
| himself, having them take turns punching/kicking, or in the
| case of the rasengan he divides the work of controlling the
| ball of chakra since he struggled to do it successfully by
| himself.
| tetris11 wrote:
| It is a kid's show. The main characters' outfit is modelled
| after Japan's iconic recovery workers (stark orange and
| blue), a compliment of their heroics echoed in fiction.
|
| This character can clone himself hundreds times to help
| others, with art often mirroring the thousands of recovery
| workers seen in actual event footage.
|
| My comment intended to link back the image of childhood
| heroes as corporeal selfless adults
| mceachen wrote:
| In case the site gets hugged to death:
|
| https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/12/08/t6yfla/1/WEAK...
|
| WEAK53 PAAQ 081430 TIBAK1
|
| Tsunami Information Statement Number 1
|
| NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
|
| 630 AM PST Mon Dec 8 2025
|
| ...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA, BRITISH
| COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON AND CALIFORNIA...
|
| EVALUATION
|
| ----------
|
| * There is no tsunami danger for the U.S. West Coast, British
| Columbia, or Alaska.
|
| * Based on earthquake information and historic tsunami records,
| the earthquake is not expected to generate a tsunami.
|
| * An earthquake has occurred with parameters listed below.
|
| PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
|
| ---------------------------------
|
| * The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary
| assessment of the earthquake and changes may occur.
|
| * Magnitude 7.6
|
| * Origin Time 0515 AKST Dec 08 2025 0615 PST Dec 08 2025 1415 UTC
| Dec 08 2025
|
| * Coordinates 41.0 North 142.3 East
|
| * Depth 32 miles
|
| * Location in the Hokkaido, Japan region
|
| ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
|
| --------------------------------------
|
| * Refer to the internet site tsunami.gov for more information.
|
| * Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington,
| British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami
| Warning Center messages at tsunami.gov.
|
| * This will be the only U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center
| message issued for this event unless additional information
| becomes available.
|
| $$
| dang wrote:
| (originally posted to
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46193413 but we've merged
| the threads)
| intunderflow wrote:
| Was in a hotel in Sapporo, almost got thrown out of bed. Lot of
| people in the hotel lobby now.
|
| Considering leaving Hokkaido by air if a Hokkaido and Sanriku
| Subsequent Earthquake Advisory is issued, don't really want to be
| in a potential megaquake.
| linenmerchant wrote:
| Best of luck!
| akg_67 wrote:
| Good luck, the Sapporo Chitose airport is closed for inspection
| of both runways.
|
| BTW, you are safer in hotel than outside. No need to stay in
| lobby, go to bed, just protect your head. I experienced much
| bigger one in Sapporo in 2018.
| rishikeshs wrote:
| I'm curious, how is it more safer inside a building than
| being outside?
| nerbert wrote:
| Buildings are built to resist earthquakes. Outside,
| anything (electric poles, roof tiles...) can fall on you.
| decae wrote:
| Shards of glass falling from ten stories up would be one
| of the main things to try to avoid.
| jasonvorhe wrote:
| Modern buildings like hotels are built to withstand
| earthquakes of some magnitudes. Wouldn't count on that at a
| local construction site or a worn down house you might pass
| on the street.
| buildbot wrote:
| Especially somewhere like Japan. A newer hotel is
| probably one of the safest places to be.
| traceroute66 wrote:
| > worn down house you might pass on the street.
|
| That "worn down house" might be good until "upper 6".
| Beyond that it all depends on when it was built and the
| associated construction standards at the time.
|
| Source: https://isec-
| society.org/ISEC_PRESS/ASEA_SEC_03/pdf/St-5_v5_...
| traceroute66 wrote:
| Japan has had earthquakes forever. Their building
| regulations mandate things like isolation and dampers.
|
| It all stems from an earthquake in 1923 in Yokohama which
| killed 140,000. Since then Japan's has over time developed
| some of the strictest seismic standards.
| pcl wrote:
| When I moved to SF, someone told me that the three most
| important things you can do for earthquake safety are:
|
| - make sure nothing can fall on you when you're in bed (no
| mounted artwork above the headboard; no lamps etc on side
| tables that are high enough to fall on you)
|
| - make sure you have footwear in your bedroom, so you can be
| mobile if there's broken glass everywhere
|
| - store extra drinking water somewhere (I used a 6-gallon
| carboy that I periodically refilled)
|
| Probably there are other good things to do, but all those
| made a lot of sense to me. Most of us spend more time in bed
| than in any other fixed location, so making sure the bed is a
| safe place rings true. And water is life.
| cedws wrote:
| People were freaking about the July megaquake prophecy and
| nothing happened. Trying to time it is silly, just chill and
| enjoy your stay, you'll probably be fine.
| freetime2 wrote:
| This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was
| indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there _will_ be
| aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about
| 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the
| first within the next week or so [1].
|
| I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be
| stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want
| to leave the area and have the opportunity to do so calmly
| and safely, I think that's justified.
|
| [1] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-
| fore...
| kulahan wrote:
| Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb
| prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is
| a smart prophecy?
| freetime2 wrote:
| This isn't something that I personally wish to debate,
| but I'll leave link to the wikipedia page for the July
| 2025 prophecy [1] for anyone who may not know what we are
| talking about.
|
| And also point out that last night's earthquake in
| Northern Japan was not a "prophecy". Just a regular,
| large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in
| Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the
| magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+
| shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as
| "brutal" [3].
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaqua
| ke_prop...
|
| [2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.h
| tml?eve...
|
| [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Ag
| ency_se...
| scottlamb wrote:
| Strange question.
|
| The July megaquake prophecy scare was dumb because it
| originated in a work of fiction, not intended to be taken
| seriously by its author and not based on any scientific
| evidence. If the "prophecy" had come true, it'd be by
| luck alone. fwiw, I'd say it didn't come true; the 8.8
| magnitude earthquake was near Kamchatka and didn't
| actually damage Japan, though a tsunami seemed plausible
| enough that there was a precautionary evacuation.
|
| This "strong quake" is a thing that happened, not a
| "smart prophecy" [1]. Talk of aftershocks is not a
| prophecy either; it's a common-sense prediction
| consistent with observations from many previous
| earthquakes.
|
| [1] smart prophecy is an oxymoron. A prediction is either
| based on scientific evidence (not a prophecy) or a (dumb)
| prophecy.
| kulahan wrote:
| You are certainly reading something into my question that
| isn't there. I'm genuinely ignorant. I thought you were
| saying that predictions of a strong aftershock following
| an M8.8 were dumb, but the same thing following an M7.6
| were smart. Is that not the case?
|
| Again, sorry if this seemed antagonistic or something, I
| really am just unsure of what you were saying.
| refulgentis wrote:
| You asked what I would have asked, in a sentence, my
| understanding is: it was LITERALLY a prophecy, I.e. an
| unscientific statement out of thin air, that in July,
| there would be an earthquake followed by a larger one.
| Here, we have reality, an earthquake, ergo the first
| prong of a mega quake was satisfied, as opposed to
| prophesied.
| kulahan wrote:
| Ah, that's probably it. Thank you.
| hnuser123456 wrote:
| A manga book published in 1999 randomly predicted a
| disaster in March 2011, which seemed to come true with
| Fukushima. The manga was re-published in 2021 predicting
| a M8.8 in July 2025, but nothing happened. This is the
| dumb prophecy part, it was not based on seismology
| studies, just a shot in the dark to try to seem prophetic
| again. Countless works of fiction are published every
| year which predict some future disaster at an arbitrary
| date. Every once in a while, one of those thousands of
| random predictions can be interpreted as coming true when
| something bad happens on that day, which retroactively
| drives interest in that work of fiction, and less
| scientific minds believing the author has actual future
| predicting power beyond the abilities of science.
|
| A relatively major (but not M8.8) quake has now hit in
| December 2025. It is intelligent to expect there may be
| aftershocks in the days after a significant earthquake
| actually happens, which can sometimes be larger than the
| initial quake. This is a well-accepted scientific fact
| born out of large amounts of data and statistical
| patterns, not whimsical doomsdayism.
| meindnoch wrote:
| We're seeing the buildup for a 9+ megathrust earthquake.
| chrsw wrote:
| How do you know?
| lostlogin wrote:
| If it happens today, OP is right, and if it happens in a
| century they are too.
| boringg wrote:
| What about if its in a millenium?
| Loughla wrote:
| That's the nice thing about completely unsubstantiated,
| baseless claims on the Internet, if it ever happens, you
| can always point at it like you're Nostradamus.
|
| My predictions:
|
| Actual zombie president in 2044.
|
| New COVID in 2061.
|
| Dinosaurs come back in 2123, reveal they've been steadily
| populating hidden Nazi underground bunkers and have
| declared peace with the yeti.
| meindnoch wrote:
| I've connected the dots.
| kelnos wrote:
| That's completely unsupported speculation.
| anthk wrote:
| It has recently been a 4th degree one at Vitoria-Gasteiz, in the
| North of Spain. One of the least probable places you would even
| think of have an earthquake...
| jacquesm wrote:
| Unfortunately Spain and Portugal have seen quite a few
| earthquakes over the centuries, some of them quite deadly:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Spain
| pfdietz wrote:
| There may be a new subduction zone forming in the Atlantic
| off the coast there.
|
| This all happens in geologic slow motion, of course.
|
| https://www.livescience.com/37418-subduction-zone-forming-
| of...
| whitehexagon wrote:
| The updated IGN website doesnt work properly for me. The old
| site was so much better, do you know if there is an
| alternative?
| i4k wrote:
| Does anyone has information if any prefecture got hit by big
| waves? If none, how much time usually before the warnings are
| lifted?
| uyzstvqs wrote:
| Official map with wave observations:
| https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/33.909/141.192/&conte...
|
| 0.7m observed about 40 minutes ago.
| qwertox wrote:
| Today I got served this video " _Earthquake and Liquefaction his
| Urayasu, Chiba 3 /11/2011_" [0], which is from the earthquake
| which caused the huge tsunami in Japan.
|
| I have rarely seen something as scary as this.
|
| [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGblnPeOXJg
| pengaru wrote:
| The flood videos of towns, cars, and people being violently
| washed away are way scarier IMO.
|
| Urayasu looks built on the water and all I see in the linked
| video is a threshold condition where the water is just barely
| peeking up through the ground below. People are still walking
| around, cars driving. There are far more chaotic and
| destructive scenes on youtube from that tsunami.
| qwertox wrote:
| I remember it, as it was unfolding live on tv. I've never
| seen anything as brutal as that tsunami, in terms of a
| natural catastrophe.
| andrewflnr wrote:
| Different kinds of scary. The tsunami is clearly more
| dangerous as an actual threat, but it basically looks and
| works like a flood. This is a pretty familiar threat.
|
| We think the ground is familiar too. So watching it change
| into something else, a squirming alien beast, is a different
| kind of fear. It violates your assumptions about what is
| safe, about what is possible at all.
| Medox wrote:
| Terrifying. I know that Japan is earthquake-proofing its
| architecture but how about the underground infra? Do they have
| to dig and redo the pipes? The cables seem to be mostly
| overground (at least in this video) and are probably easier to
| repair (oldschool infra ftw).
| traceroute66 wrote:
| > The cables seem to be mostly overground (at least in this
| video) and are probably easier to repair (oldschool infra
| ftw).
|
| In Japan cables are (still) mostly overground. Use of
| underground is still a relatively new topic as addressed by
| the TEPCO website[1]. The first footer on the bottom of that
| page provides a nice TL;DR of the state of play:
| The plans for underground conversion have consisted of "Plan
| for Underground Conversion of Power Lines", which covered
| three terms from FY 1986 to FY 1998, followed by the "New
| Plan for Underground Conversion of Power Lines" from FY 1999
| to FY 2003, and then the "Plan for the Removal of Utility
| Poles" from FY 2004 to FY 2008. Based on these plans,
| approximately 7,700 km of lines all across Japan were placed
| underground over 23 years by the end of FY 2008 (with TEPCO
| responsible for approximately 3,500 km). Currently,
| we are consulting with related personnel regarding items such
| as locations for conversion as based on the new "Guidelines
| for the Removal of Utility Poles" established in FY 2009.
|
| [1] https://www.tepco.co.jp/en/hd/about/facilities/distributi
| on-...
| eej71 wrote:
| Oddly enough, the YouTube recommendation engine served that one
| up to me too.
| keepamovin wrote:
| Is it so serious? It was extremely deep, normally that's not as
| strong, right?
| snvzz wrote:
| Felt it in Tokyo. It was a quite solid shake, and lasted a minute
| or two.
| ZebusJesus wrote:
| To think that these are happening more and more around the world
| and the USA just lost 9 detection stations near Alaska because of
| NOAA budget cuts. There was also the giant tsunami in the middle
| of nowhere this year.
|
| https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2025/11/01/state-seismolog...
| spullara wrote:
| Did the title of the page change as only advisories are shown on
| the map. A warning is a very specific thing where the tsunami was
| seen and is coming.
| pezezin wrote:
| I live in Misawa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misawa,_Aomori)
| and work in Rokkasho (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rokkasho),
| which is the area where the earthquake hit the strongest. It was
| quite violent, apparently the strongest earthquake ever recorded
| in the region. My house suffered no damage other than a few
| things falling off the cabinets, and I could sleep soundly
| afterwards, but lets see today at work.
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