[HN Gopher] Touching the Elephant - TPUs
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       Touching the Elephant - TPUs
        
       Author : giuliomagnifico
       Score  : 140 points
       Date   : 2025-12-06 12:29 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (considerthebulldog.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (considerthebulldog.com)
        
       | Simplita wrote:
       | This was a nice breakdown. I always feel most TPU articles skip
       | over the practical parts. This one actually connects the concepts
       | in a way that clicks.
        
       | Zigurd wrote:
       | The extent to which TPU architecture is built for the purpose
       | also doesn't happen in a single design generation. Ironwood is
       | the seventh generation of TPU, and that matters a lot.
        
       | alecco wrote:
       | I'm surprised the perspective of China making TPUs at scale in a
       | couple of years is not bigger news. It could be a deadly blow for
       | Google, NVIDIA, and the rest. Combine it with China's nuclear
       | base and labor pool. And the cherry on top, America will train
       | 600k Chinese students as Trump agreed to.
       | 
       | The TPUv4 and TPUv6 docs were stolen by a Chinese national in
       | 2022/2023: https://www.cyberhaven.com/blog/lessons-learned-from-
       | the-goo... https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/superseding-indictment-
       | charge...
       | 
       | And that's just 1 guy that got caught. Who knows how many other
       | cases were there.
       | 
       | A Chinese startup is already making clusters of TPUs and has
       | revenue https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3334244/ai-
       | start-...
        
         | Workaccount2 wrote:
         | Manufacturing is the hard part. China certainly has the
         | knowledge to build a TPU architecture without needing to steal
         | the plans. What they don't have is the ability to actually
         | build the chips. This is even in spite of also stealing
         | lithography plans.
         | 
         | There is a dark art to semiconductor manufacturing that pretty
         | much only TSMC really has the wizards for. Maybe intel and
         | samsung a bit too.
        
           | tomrod wrote:
           | Lot of retired fab folks in the Austin area if you needed to
           | spin up a local fab. It's really not a dark art, there are
           | plenty of folks that have experience in the industry.
        
             | Workaccount2 wrote:
             | This is sort of like saying there are lots of kids in the
             | local community college shop class if you want to spin up
             | an F1 team.
             | 
             | The knowledge of making 2008 era chips is not a gating
             | factor for getting a handful of atoms to function as a
             | transistor in current SOTA chips. There are probably 100
             | people on earth who know how to do this, and the majority
             | of them are in Taiwan.
             | 
             | Again, China has literally stolen the plans for EUV
             | lithography, years ago, _and still cannot get it to work_.
             | Even Samsung and Intel, using the same machines as TSMC,
             | cannot match what they are doing.
             | 
             | It's a dark art in the most literal sense.
             | 
             | Nevermind that new these cutting edge fabs cost ~$50
             | Billion each.
        
               | checker659 wrote:
               | I've always wondered. If you have fuck you money,
               | wouldn't it be possible to build GPUs to do LLM matmul
               | with 2008 technology. Again, assuming energy costs /
               | cooling costs don't matter.
        
               | Zigurd wrote:
               | Energy, cooling, and how much of the building you're
               | taking up do matter. They matter less and in a more
               | manageable way for hyperscalers that have a long
               | established resource management practice in lots of big
               | data centers because they can phase in new technologies
               | as they phase out the old. But it's a lot more daunting
               | to think about building a data center big enough to
               | compete with one full of Blackwell systems there are more
               | than 10 times more performant per watt and per square
               | foot.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Building the clean rooms at this scale is a limitation in
               | itself. Just getting the factory setup to and the
               | machines put in so they don't generate particulate matter
               | in operation is an art that compares in difficulty to
               | making the chips themselves.
        
               | Workaccount2 wrote:
               | IIRC people have gotten LLMs to run on '80s hardware.
               | Inference isn't overly compute heavy.
               | 
               | The killer really is training, which is insanely compute
               | intensive and really only recently hardware practical on
               | the scale needed.
        
               | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
               | you could probably train a gpt 2 sized model with sota
               | architecture on a 2008 supercomputer. it would take a
               | while though.
        
             | Zigurd wrote:
             | The mask shops at TSMC and Samsung kind of are a dark art.
             | It's one of the interesting things about the contract
             | manufacturing business in chips. It's not just a matter of
             | having access to state of the art equipment.
        
           | aunty_helen wrote:
           | For China there is no plan B for semiconductor manufacturing.
           | Invading Taiwan would be a dice roll and the consequences
           | would be severe. They will create their own SOTA
           | semiconductor industry. Same goes for their military.
           | 
           | The question is when? Does that come in time to deflate the
           | US tech stock bubble? Or will the bubble start to level out
           | and reality catch up, or will the market crash for another
           | reason beforehand?
        
             | snek_case wrote:
             | China has their own fabs. They are behind TSMC in terms of
             | technology, but that doesn't mean they don't have fabs.
             | They're currently ~7nm AFAIK. That's behind TSMC, but also
             | not useless. They are obviously trying hard to catch up. I
             | don't think we should just imagine that they never will.
             | China has a lot of smart engineers and they know how
             | strategically important chip manufacturing is.
             | 
             | This is like this funny idea people had in the early 2000s
             | that China would continue to manufacture most US technology
             | but they could never design their own competitive tech. Why
             | would anyone think that?
             | 
             | Wrt invading Taiwan, I don't think there is any way China
             | can get TSMC intact. If they do invade Taiwan (please God
             | no), it would be a horrible bloodbath. Deaths in the
             | hundreds of thousands and probably relentless bombing.
             | Taiwan would likely destroy its own fabs to avoid them
             | being taken. It would be sad and horrible.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | If they invade Taiwan, we will scuttle the plants and
               | direct ASML to disable their machines which they will do
               | because that's the condition under which we gave them the
               | tech. They're not going to get it this way.
               | 
               | They'll just catch the next wave of tech or eventually
               | break into EUV.
        
               | adgjlsfhk1 wrote:
               | imo the most likely answer is that asml funds a second
               | source for the optics that isn't US controlled and starts
               | shipping to China. The US is losing influence fast.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | We're not above stuxnetting them if it comes to it. They
               | operate at the pleasure of the US with US tech.
        
               | jandrewrogers wrote:
               | It would likely take ASML decades to develop an
               | alternative EUV light source not encumbered by US defense
               | technology, at which time it may not matter.
               | 
               | Everyone is still dependent on a single American
               | manufacturer for this tech after decades of development.
               | This strongly suggests that it is considerably more
               | difficult than just "funding a second source".
        
               | mr_toad wrote:
               | > Wrt invading Taiwan, I don't think there is any way
               | China can get TSMC intact.
               | 
               | There are so many trade and manufacturing links between
               | China and Taiwan that an outright war would be
               | economically disastrous for both countries.
        
               | dpe82 wrote:
               | That doesn't mean they won't try anyway; political
               | ideology often trumps rational planning.
        
               | overfeed wrote:
               | > Why would anyone think that?
               | 
               | That'd be the belief in good old American exceptionalism.
               | Up until recently, a common meme on HN was "freedom" is
               | fundamental to innovation, and naturally the country with
               | the most Freedom(TM) wins. This even persisted after it
               | was clear that DJI was kicking all kinds of ass,
               | outcompeting multiple western drone companies.
        
           | radialstub wrote:
           | The software is the hard part. Western software still
           | outclasses what the chinese produce by a good amount.
        
             | PunchyHamster wrote:
             | This. The amount of investment into CUDA is high enough
             | most companies won't even consider competition, even if it
             | was lower cost.
             | 
             | We desperately need more open frameworks for competition to
             | work
        
           | mr_toad wrote:
           | > What they don't have is the ability to actually build the
           | chips.
           | 
           | China has fabs. Most are older nodes and are used to
           | manufacture chips used in cars and consumer electronics. They
           | have companies that design chips (manufactured by TSMC), like
           | the Ascend 910, which are purpose built for AI. They may be
           | behind, but they're not standing still.
        
         | fullofideas wrote:
         | >Combine it with China's nuclear base and labor pool. And the
         | cherry on top, America will train 600k Chinese students as
         | Trump agreed to.
         | 
         | I dont understand this part. What has nuclear base got to do
         | with chip manufacturing? And surely, not all 600k students are
         | learning chip design or stealing plans
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | Nuclear power is what they are talking about, not weapons.
        
           | alecco wrote:
           | I mean they have the power grid to run TPUs at 10x the scale
           | of USA.
           | 
           | About students, have you seen the microelectronic labs in
           | American universities lately? A huge chunk are Chinese
           | already. Same with some of the top AI labs.
        
           | dylanowen wrote:
           | I assume the nuclear reactors are to power the data centers
           | using the new chips. There have been a few mentions on HN
           | about the US being very behind in building enough power
           | plants to run LLM workloads
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | We should ask ourselves: is it worth ruining local
             | communities in order to beat China in the global sphere?
        
               | pstuart wrote:
               | That question was asked and answered years ago and the
               | answer is YES (not me personally, but the people in
               | charge)
               | 
               | There are things about China not to be celebrated but one
               | cannot help but admire the way that they invest in their
               | country as a whole. The US is all about "what's in it for
               | me".
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | Fortunately, we have environmentalists who can protect us
               | from a future of towering nuclear plants and wind
               | turbines with hills covered in solar panels.
               | 
               | Is all that construction really worth it when we could be
               | protecting neighborhoods and historic views?
        
             | mr_toad wrote:
             | The frenetic pace of data center construction in the US
             | means that nuclear is not a short-term option. No way are
             | they going to wait a decade or more for generation to come
             | on line. It's going to be solar, batteries, and gas
             | (turbines, and possibly fuel cells).
        
           | tormeh wrote:
           | Thankfully LLMs are a dead end, so nobody will make it to AGI
           | by just throwing more electricity at the problem. Now if we
           | could only have a new AI winter we could postpone the end of
           | mankind as the dominant species on earth by another couple of
           | decades.
        
         | llm_nerd wrote:
         | >It could be a deadly blow for Google, NVIDIA, and the rest.
         | 
         | How would this be a deadly blow to Google? Google makes TPUs
         | for their own services and products, avoiding paying the
         | expensive nvidia tax. If other people make similar products,
         | this has effectively zero impact on Google.
         | 
         | nvidia knew their days were numbered, at least in their
         | ownership of the whole market. And China hardly had to steal
         | the great plans for a TPU to make one, and a FMA/MAC unit is
         | actually a surprisingly simple bit of hardware to design.
         | Everyone is adding "TPUs" in their chips - Apple, Qualcomm,
         | Google, AMD, Amazon, Huawei, nvidia (that's what tensor cores
         | are) and everyone else.
         | 
         | And that startup isn't the big secret. Huawei already has
         | solutions matching the H20. Once the specific need that can be
         | serviced by an ASIC is clear, everyone starts building it.
         | 
         | >America will train 600k Chinese students as Trump agreed to
         | 
         | What great advantage do you think this is?
         | 
         | America isn't remotely the great gatekeeper on this. If
         | anything, Taiwan + the Netherlands (ASML) are. China would
         | yield infinitely more value in learning manufacturing and
         | fabrication secrets than cloning some specific ASIC.
        
         | lukasb wrote:
         | Yeah I'm terrified that TPUs will get cheaper, that would be
         | awful.
        
       | desideratum wrote:
       | The Scaling ML textbook also has an excellent section on TPUs.
       | https://jax-ml.github.io/scaling-book/tpus/
        
         | jauntywundrkind wrote:
         | I also enjoyed https://henryhmko.github.io/posts/tpu/tpu.html
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44342977 .
         | 
         | The work that XLA & schedulers are doing here is wildly
         | impressive.
         | 
         | This feels so much drastically harder to work with than Itanium
         | must have been. ~400bit VLIW, across extremely diverse
         | execution units. The workload is different, it's not general
         | purpose, but still awe inspiring to know not just that they
         | built the chip but that the software folks can actually use
         | such a wildly weird beast.
         | 
         | I wish we saw more industry uptake for XLA. Uptakes not bad,
         | per-se: there's a bunch of different hardware it can target!
         | But what amazing secret sauce, it's open source, and it doesn't
         | feel like there's the industry rally behind it it deserves. It
         | feels like Nvidia is only barely beginning to catch up, to dig
         | a new moat, with the just announced Nvidia Tiles. Such huge
         | overlap. Afaik, please correct if wrong, but XLA isn't at
         | present particularly useful at scheduling across machines, is
         | it? https://github.com/openxla/xla
        
           | desideratum wrote:
           | Thanks for sharing this. I agree w.r.t. XLA. I've been moving
           | to JAX after many years of using torch and XLA is kind of
           | magic. I think torch.compile has quite a lot of catching up
           | to do.
           | 
           | > XLA isn't at present particularly useful at scheduling
           | across machines,
           | 
           | I'm not sure if you mean compiler-based distributed
           | optimizations, but JAX does this with XLA: https://docs.jax.d
           | ev/en/latest/notebooks/Distributed_arrays_...
        
           | alevskaya wrote:
           | I do think it's a lot simpler than the problem Itanium was
           | trying to solve. Neural nets are just way more regular in
           | nature, even with block sparsity, compared to generic
           | consumer pointer-hopping code. I wouldn't call it "easy", but
           | we've found that writing performant NN kernels for a VLIW
           | architecture chip is in practice a lot more straightforward
           | than other architectures.
           | 
           | JAX/XLA does offer some really nice tools for doing automated
           | sharding of models across devices, but for really large
           | performance-optimized models we often handle the comms stuff
           | manually, similar in spirit to MPI.
        
             | jauntywundrkind wrote:
             | I agree with regards to the actual work being done by the
             | systolic arrays, which sort of are VLIW-ish & have a
             | predictable plannable workflow for them. Not easy, but
             | there's a very direct path to actually executing these NN
             | kernels. The article does an excellent job setting up how
             | great at win it is that the systolic MXU's can do the work,
             | don't need anything but local registers and local
             | communication across cells, don't need much control.
             | 
             | But if you make it 2900 words through this 9000 word
             | document, to the "Sample VLIW Instructions" and "Simplified
             | TPU Instruction Overlay" diagrams, trying to map the VLIW
             | slots ("They contain slots for 2 scalar, 4 vector, 2
             | matrix, 1 miscellaneous, and 6 immediate instructions") to
             | useful work one can do seems incredibly incredible
             | challenging. Given the vast disparity of functionality and
             | style of the attached units that that governs, and given
             | the extreme complexity in keeping that MXU constantly fed,
             | keeping very tight timing so that it is constantly well
             | utilized.
             | 
             | > _Subsystems operate with different latencies: scalar
             | arithmetic might take single digit cycles, vector
             | arithmetic 10s, and matrix multiplies 100s. DMAs, VMEM
             | loads /stores, FIFO buffer fill/drain, etc. all must be
             | coordinated with precise timing._
             | 
             | Where-as Itanium's compilers needed to pack parallel work
             | into a single instruction, there's maybe less need for that
             | here. But that quote there feels like an incredible heart
             | of the machine challenge, to write instruction bundles that
             | are going to feed a variety of systems all at once, when
             | these systems have such drastically different performance
             | profiles / pipeline depths. Truly an awe-some system, IMO.
             | 
             | Still though, yes: Itanium's software teams did have an
             | _incredibly_ hard challenge finding enough work at compile
             | time to pack into instructions. Maybe it was a harder task.
             | What a marvel modern cores are, having almost a dozen
             | execution units that cpu control can juggle and keep
             | utilized, analyzing incoming instructions on the fly, with
             | deep out-of-order depenency-tracking insight. Trying to
             | figure it all out ahead of time  & packing it into the
             | instructions apriori was a wildly hard task.
        
           | cpgxiii wrote:
           | In Itanium's heyday, the compilers and libraries were pretty
           | good at handling HPC workloads, which is really the closest
           | anyone was running then to modern NN training/inference. The
           | problem with Itanium and its compilers was that people
           | obviously wanted to run workloads that looked nothing like
           | HPC (databases, web servers, etc) and the architecture and
           | compilers weren't very good at that. There have always been
           | very successful VLIW-style architectures in more specialized
           | domains (graphics, HPC, DSP, now NPU) it just hasn't worked
           | out well for general-purpose processors.
        
       | ddtaylor wrote:
       | Are TPUs still stuck to their weird Google bucket thing when
       | using GCP? I hated that.
        
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