[HN Gopher] The Penicillin Myth
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Penicillin Myth
        
       Author : surprisetalk
       Score  : 124 points
       Date   : 2025-12-01 14:13 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.asimov.press)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.asimov.press)
        
       | tetris11 wrote:
       | (Off-topic:) Scrollbars, and their non-existence.
        
         | jasonjmcghee wrote:
         | It's not the best implementation, but it's there (you just have
         | to scroll a bit to get it to show).
        
       | arjie wrote:
       | Oh I really enjoyed this one.
       | 
       | Got a quick insight about how penicillin works: interferes with
       | cell-wall building which is a destroy and recreate process by
       | preventing the recreate part.
       | 
       | Got a quick view into the scientific process and communication:
       | Fleming focused on the insight - penicillium kills staphylococcus
       | - and left out the circuitous detail. This is important so that
       | the big win here is very clear.
       | 
       | And got an insight into human nature and memory: Fleming didn't
       | tell the accidental contamination story until much later. It
       | could possibly be even an idea someone else might have come up
       | with which then took root in his mind (ironic haha!)
       | 
       | The communication aspect reminds me of Mendel's far too perfect
       | ratios for his pea plants. That kind of "repeat till difference
       | clear" statistics would be decried today but perhaps that was to
       | communicate rather than to determine.
       | 
       | And finally, I really enjoy reading about human process
       | innovation because I think it's a big factor in how Humanity
       | grows. The lab notebook has to be some kind of star performer
       | here - Fleming's notes allow us to look back like this.
       | 
       | When I experiment with things, I naturally lean to keeping notes
       | on my test protocol, observations, and results. But not because
       | of some personal genius. It's just the standard way I was taught
       | as a child in our science labs.
       | 
       | I won't claim to the rigor of a microbiology lab but even just
       | the process notes help a lot, which is useful since I'm just
       | testing molecules on myself.
        
         | Joker_vD wrote:
         | > Mendel's far too perfect ratios for his pea plants.
         | 
         | "Remember, if you flip a coin 200 times and it comes heads up
         | exactly 100 times, the chances are the coin is actually _un_
         | fair. You should expect to see something like 93 or 107
         | instead".
        
           | fainpul wrote:
           | Isn't 100 / 100 the most likely outcome for a fair coin? Sure
           | it's unlikely that you hit exactly that result, but every
           | single other result is even less likely.
           | 
           | What I'm trying to say: if you get 100 / 100, that's not a
           | sign of an unfair coin, it's the strongest sign for a fair
           | coin you can get.
        
             | Joker_vD wrote:
             | Well, yes. But the expected deviation from the mean is
             | still [?]7.07. And the probability that the outcome will be
             | either 93/107 _or_ 107 /93 is (slightly) higher than the
             | outcome being exactly 100.
        
               | fainpul wrote:
               | But those are 2 results. 100 / 100 is more likely than 93
               | / 107 (or any other specific result) is what I'm saying.
        
               | Joker_vD wrote:
               | Depends what you count as a result, I guess. "There is
               | exactly N flips of a single kind" is also a viable
               | definition, just as "The exact sequence of flips was x_0,
               | x_1, ... x_199" is.
        
               | paddleon wrote:
               | You can tell the difference between
               | 
               | 93 heads, 107 tails and
               | 
               | 93 tails, 107 heads
               | 
               | but not between
               | 
               | 100 heads, 100 tails and
               | 
               | 100 tails, 100 heads.
               | 
               | So while those are two results (93/107 and 107/93), they
               | really only count as two separate outcomes if you pre-
               | specify that the first number is heads.
               | 
               | If instead you consider symmetries, where there are 2
               | ways to get 93/107 and only one wall to get 100/100, then
               | you have more likelihood for the 93/107 outcome because
               | you have two ways to get it.
        
               | kalaksi wrote:
               | I don't think that makes 100 / 100 the most likely result
               | if you flip a coin 200 times. It's not about 100 / 100
               | vs. another single possible result. It's about 100 / 100
               | vs. NOT 100 / 100, which includes all other possible
               | results other than 100 / 100.
        
               | andoando wrote:
               | If you flip a coin 200 times, and repeat that a billion
               | times, 100/100 will be more likely than any other ratio.
               | 
               | It will be a bell curve with 100/100 as the peak
        
               | eviks wrote:
               | Why not go one abstraction further and go expected
               | deviation from deviation? Probably the word "expected"
               | plays a mind trick? "Expected" doesn't mean the
               | probability increases, the easiest way to understand it
               | is just by looking at the probability distribution
               | function chart for coin tosses - you'll immediately see
               | that mean has the highest chance of happenning, so
               | exactly 100 is the most likely outcome
        
             | voakbasda wrote:
             | I would guess that a single trial of 200 flips can be
             | treated as one event, so getting 100/100 is but one
             | outcome. It may be the most likely individual outcome, but
             | the odds of getting that exact result feel less likely than
             | all of the other possible outcomes. The 100/100 case should
             | be seen the most over repeated trials, but only marginally
             | over other nearby results.
             | 
             | Intuitively, this seems right to me, but sometime
             | statistics do not follow intuition.
        
             | shakow wrote:
             | > every single other result is even less likely.
             | 
             | But the summed probability of the "not too far away
             | results" is much higher, i.e. P([93, 107]\\{100}) >
             | P([100]).
             | 
             | So if you only shoot 100/100 with your coin, that's
             | definitely weird.
        
               | fainpul wrote:
               | > So if you only shoot 100/100 with your coin, that's
               | definitely weird.
               | 
               | Not if you only try once.
        
               | kalaksi wrote:
               | I'm sorry, but try what once? 200 flips once?
        
               | shakow wrote:
               | Even if you shoot only once, you still have a higher
               | chance of hitting something slightly off the middle than
               | the perfect 100/100. And this because that's one point-
               | precise result (100/100) vs. a cumulated range of
               | individually less-probable results, but more probable
               | when taken as a whole.
               | 
               | For a fair coin, hitting 100/100 is ~5%, vs. ~30% falling
               | in [97; 103] \ {100}. You can simulate here:
               | https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-
               | probabil...
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | > you still have a higher chance of hitting something
               | slightly off the middle than the perfect 100/100
               | 
               | That's because "something slightly off the middle" is a
               | large group of possible results. Of course you can
               | assemble a group of possible results that has a higher
               | likelihood than a single result (even the most likely
               | single result!). But you could make the same argument for
               | any single result, including one of the results in your
               | "slightly off the middle" group. Did you get 97 heads?
               | Well you'd have a higher likelihood of getting between 98
               | and 103 heads. In fact, for any result you get, it would
               | have been more likely to get some other result! :D
        
               | zdragnar wrote:
               | > But you could make the same argument for any single
               | result
               | 
               | Isn't that the point? The odds of getting the "most
               | likely result" are lower than the odds of getting not the
               | most likely result. Therefore, getting exactly 100/100
               | heads and tails would be unlikely!
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | But as I said, getting any one specific result is less
               | likely than getting another other possible result. And
               | the disparity in likelihoods is _greater_ for any one
               | specific result other than the 50% split.
        
               | alwa wrote:
               | I think the disagreement is about what that unlikeliness
               | implies. "Aha! You got _any result_? Clearly you 're
               | lying!"... I'm not sure how far that gets you.
               | 
               | There's probably a dorm-quality insight there about the
               | supreme unlikeliness of being, though: out of all the
               | possible universes, this one, etc...
        
               | zdragnar wrote:
               | Let's look at the original quote:
               | 
               | > "Remember, if you flip a coin 200 times and it comes
               | heads up exactly 100 times, the chances are the coin is
               | actually unfair. You should expect to see something like
               | 93 or 107 instead".
               | 
               | Inverting the statement makes it read something like
               | this:
               | 
               | You are more likely to not get 100/100 than you are to
               | get exactly 100/100
               | 
               | ...which is exactly what I was saying. Nobody is arguing
               | that there is a single value that might be more likely
               | than 100/100. Rather, the argument is that a 100/100
               | result is _suspiciously fair_.
        
               | e12e wrote:
               | Should that be 25% for 97..193 excluding 100?
        
               | shakow wrote:
               | "[97; 103] \ {100}" means the interval [97; 103] without
               | the set {100}; so no, still ~30%.
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | Okay, but it doesn't make sense to arbitrarily group
               | together some results and compare the probability of
               | getting any 1 result in that group to getting 1
               | particular result outside of that group.
               | 
               | You could just as easily say "you should be suspicious if
               | you flip a coin 200 times and get exactly 93 heads,
               | because it's far more likely to get between 99 and 187
               | heads."
        
               | wat10000 wrote:
               | It's suspicious when it lands on something that people
               | might be biased towards.
               | 
               | For example, you take the top five cards, and you get a
               | royal flush of diamonds in ascending order. In theory,
               | this sequence is no more or less probable than any other
               | sequence being taken from a randomly shuffled deck. But
               | given that this sequence has special significance to
               | people, there's a very good reason to think that this
               | indicates that the deck is not randomly shuffled.
               | 
               | In theory terms, you can't just look at the probability
               | of getting this result from a fair coin (or deck or
               | whatever). You have to look at that probability, _and_
               | the probability that the coin (deck etc.) is biased, and
               | that a biased coin would produce the outcome you got.
               | 
               | If you flip a coin that feels and appears perfectly
               | ordinary and you get exactly 100 heads and 100 tails, you
               | should still be pretty confident that it's unbiased. If
               | you ask somebody else to flip a coin 200 times, and you
               | can't actually see them, and you know they're lazy, and
               | they come back and report exactly 100/100, that's a good
               | indicator they didn't do the flips.
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | > It's suspicious when it lands on something that people
               | might be biased towards.
               | 
               | Eh, this only makes sense if you're incorporating
               | information about who set up the experiment in your
               | statistical model. If you somehow knew that there's a 50%
               | probability that you were given a fair coin and a 50%
               | probability that you were given an unfair coin that lands
               | on the opposite side of its previous flip 90% of the
               | time, then yes, you could incorporate this sort of
               | knowledge into your analysis of your single trial of 200
               | flips.
        
               | grraaaaahhh wrote:
               | >But the summed probability of the "not too far away
               | results" is much higher, i.e. P([93, 107]\\{100}) >
               | P([100]).
               | 
               | That's true of every result. If you're using this to
               | conclude you have a weird coin then every coin is weird.
        
             | dooglius wrote:
             | "fair coin" refers to both the probability of heads and
             | tails being equal (which is still justified) as well as the
             | trials being independent (unlikely with 100/200; more
             | likely the "coin" is some imperfect PRNG in a loop)
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | > more likely the "coin" is some imperfect PRNG in a loop
               | 
               | "More likely"? How can you even estimate the likelihood
               | of the coin being "an imperfect PRNG" based on a single
               | trial of 200 flips?
        
               | ajuc wrote:
               | Bayesian vs frequentist in a nutshell :)
               | 
               | If a student was tasked with determining some physical
               | constant with an experiment and they got it exactly right
               | to 20th decimal place - I'll check their data twice or
               | thrice. Just saying. You continue believing it was the
               | most likely value ;)
        
               | dooglius wrote:
               | You can use combinatorics to calculate the likelihood. If
               | your PRNG is in a cycle of length N in its state space
               | (assuming N>200), and half the state space corresponds to
               | heads (vs tails), then the likelihood would be (N/2
               | choose 100)^2/(N choose 200) versus your baseline
               | likelihood (for a truly random coin) of (200 choose
               | 100)/2^200.
               | 
               | Graphing here https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=graph+
               | %28%28N%2F2+choos... and it does look like it's only a
               | slight improvement in likelihood, so I did overstate the
               | claim. A more interesting case would be to look at some
               | self-correcting physical process.
        
             | buildsjets wrote:
             | A truly fair coin would never land heads or tails. It would
             | land standing on it's edge, every single time.
        
           | munchbunny wrote:
           | The chance of exactly 100 heads from 200 fair coin flips is
           | approximately 5-6%. Qualitatively, that's not particularly
           | strong evidence for an unfair coin if you did only one trial.
           | 
           | You could also argue that 100 out of 200 on a fair coin is
           | more likely than any other specific outcome, such as 93/200,
           | so if the argument is that the coin is "too perfect", you
           | then also have to consider the possibility that the coin is
           | somehow biased to produce 93/200 much more often than
           | anything else, vs. 100/200.
        
           | n1b0m wrote:
           | In a real-world scenario, if you saw a result significantly
           | far from 100 (like 150 heads), you might suspect the coin is
           | unfair. However, seeing exactly 100 heads gives no reason to
           | suspect the coin is unfair; it's the result most consistent
           | with a fair coin.
        
         | stevenwoo wrote:
         | If you are not familiar with more of Mendel or plant biology,
         | he got extremely lucky in picking a two chromosome species. The
         | next plant he picked had more than two chromosome types so he
         | spent the rest of his life hitting his head against the wall -
         | obvious to us but him not having a theory and expertise with
         | microscopes to explain his pea results hampered him greatly
         | beyond his initial pea plant studies.
        
           | dexwiz wrote:
           | What do you mean by a two chromosome species? A quick google
           | says pea plants have 14 chromosomes. I only looked because I
           | had never heard of a species only having two chromosomes. Do
           | you mean the traits he was selecting for only had two
           | alleles?
        
             | stevenwoo wrote:
             | Right, my bad for wrong terminology as biology nor botany
             | is not my speciality either. I was thinking along the lines
             | of XY for humans, then the ordinary two row, two column
             | chart used to teach the basics of Mendel with pea plants
             | and dominant/recessive non polygenic traits in introductory
             | biology classes.
        
             | dekhn wrote:
             | The traits he picked- hope I get this detail pedantically
             | correct: had only two alleles, each allele had an obvious
             | phenotype controlled mostly by that gene, the two
             | phenotypes were binary (no intermediate "half-wrinkled-
             | half-smooth"). and all segregated independently (different
             | chromosomes, or far enough that the linkage was extremely
             | weak). I remember my high school teacher speculating he
             | inspected many different phenotypes and then reported his
             | results on the final ones he picked where the results were
             | nice.
             | 
             | Unfortunately, most modern genotypes and phenotypes in
             | humans don't follow these patterns, and over the years,
             | genetics devloped an entire vocabulary and physical model
             | to explain them, although at a fairly abstract level. None
             | of it made any sense to me so I follow the
             | biophysics/molecular biology approach which tends to
             | consider many more underlying physical details
             | 
             | There's a related story,
             | https://review.ucsc.edu/spring04/bio-debate.html and
             | https://review.ucsc.edu/spring04/twoversions.html which
             | shows how different fields think about the
             | genotype/phenotype relationship. Grinding up steering
             | wheels to figure out how they work...
        
         | awkward wrote:
         | So many other good details that get to how impossibly
         | multivariate biology research is, like the need to have several
         | days at the exact temperature.
         | 
         | It's not uncommon for results in biology to have this kind of
         | snag in reproducibility even now. Sometimes it's due to
         | attributing variations to something like "steady hands at the
         | bench", but other times it can even be a deliberate attempt to
         | prevent rivals from duplicating a process before it can be
         | patented and privatized.
        
           | microtherion wrote:
           | cf The Harvard Law: "Under controlled conditions of light,
           | temperature, humidity, and nutrition, the organism will do as
           | it damn well pleases."
        
       | dj_gitmo wrote:
       | The Hare theory is a better story, regardless of whether it is
       | true. I am surprised that it hasn't seeped into pop science lore.
        
       | mordae wrote:
       | Hmm, sounds like the spores must have come from the outside.
       | Otherwise he'd be saying his colleague has contaminated the
       | building with improperly stored fungal colonies and he himself
       | let those spores contaminate his lab. So yeah, definitely from
       | the outside.
        
       | pickledoyster wrote:
       | imo, this paragraph covers the essence of a good chunk of the
       | article:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discovery_of_penicillin#Replic...
        
       | tolerance wrote:
       | Writing like this does not belong on Substack.
        
       | niemandhier wrote:
       | This stood out to me:
       | 
       | "Despite this close professional association, however, Hare
       | claims to have played no part in the discovery or original
       | research on penicillin nor to have discussed them with Fleming"
       | 
       | It's nice to see that the bickering about who stole whose
       | research does not affect all old discoveries.
        
         | dooglius wrote:
         | Is it common in cases for someone with no involvement at all to
         | claim involvement? Usually disputes I've heard of are when
         | multiple people are involved, and they're arguing about who
         | played a crucial vs minor role.
        
           | jjk166 wrote:
           | It's common for people who have close associations to have
           | events that could be construed as involvement, and when
           | someone does believe they are involved in something
           | important, they tend to claim their involvement was
           | important. It would be so easy to inflate a random
           | conversation or a little common courtesy assistance as
           | something more. It takes some genuine humility to take stock
           | of all your interactions and conclude that you had nothing to
           | do with one of the most important discoveries in history, and
           | more still to admit that you thought nothing of it at the
           | time.
        
       | dooglius wrote:
       | Can someone with more experience in scientific writing comment on
       | 
       | > It's too circuitous and indirect for a scientific report
       | 
       | The preceding paragraph does not seem unreasonable to me--maybe a
       | bit too glib, but nothing that couldn't be touched up.
        
         | paddleon wrote:
         | in scientific writing, you need to take
         | 
         | 100 articles at 6 pages each
         | 
         | and condense them to 1 article of 6 pages
         | 
         | And add how your method/insight moves the conversation forward,
         | along with describing your method/insight.
         | 
         | The reason why scientific writing can be hard to read from the
         | outside is the 100:1 compression. Decompression of that can
         | require some knowledge of the field.
         | 
         | Also, some people are just bad at writing.
        
         | advisedwang wrote:
         | The goal of a paper is to write up the actual discovery, not to
         | tell a story or explain irrelevant background. The steps he
         | wrote there would confuse rather than elucidate the actual
         | discovery.
        
       | alexpotato wrote:
       | One of my favorite "myths" about the discovery of stainless
       | steel:
       | 
       | Metallurgist is trying out all kinds of steels looking for a
       | particular attribute. He would dutifully record each recipe +
       | test in a notebook but if a particular batch didn't have the
       | attribute, he would throw it out a window into an outdoor scrap
       | pile.
       | 
       | Several months go by and he's cleaning up the pile and notices
       | that one of the blocks has no rust or corrosion. He knows that
       | the pile is six months old but doesn't know which of the recipes
       | this block was connected to.
       | 
       | So he repeats ALL of the block recipes from the last 6 months but
       | labels each block so he can figure out which recipe led to the
       | "stainless" steel.
       | 
       | (Probably not the real story but always loved this telling of it.
       | Actual Wikipedia history is here:
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stainless_steel#History)
        
         | commandlinefan wrote:
         | I recall reading that the microwave oven was invented by a
         | physicist after he walked by a radiation chamber and the
         | chocolate bar in his pocket melted... makes me wonder if there
         | was any historic license taken in that case as well.
        
           | jonny_eh wrote:
           | That one I could totally believe. Radar equipment + chocolate
           | bar = very likely to occur.
        
       | johnyzee wrote:
       | That was a lot of words to get to the point that Fleming probably
       | misremembered the sequence of events when he retold the story 15
       | years later. _He even mentioned this possibility at the time._
       | Interesting article but not much of a mystery.
        
       | keepamovin wrote:
       | Tangentially related: doxycycline helps improve muscle and tendon
       | tear recovery by enhancing the performance of matrix proteins
       | that form "scaffolding", by inhibiting factors that break them
       | down. "By inhibiting MMPs, doxycycline helps preserve and remodel
       | the ECM, accelerating repair and improving biomechanical strength
       | (e.g., tensile strength and reduced creep/strain)". Crazy. I'm a
       | big fan off high-ROI off-label uses of well-tolerated, cheap,
       | out-of-patent "WHO essential medecines list" pharmas. There's
       | much to be found there.
       | 
       | Another tidbit: inderol (propranolol, beta-blocker) can aide PTSD
       | recovery by reducing the emotional potency of traumatic memories
       | when taken in a therapeutic replay.
        
       | catlikesshrimp wrote:
       | Not a mention of Clorito Picado?
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clodomiro_Picado_Twight
       | 
       | The contest is cold, but it deserves at least a fleeting hint
        
       | glenstein wrote:
       | In my opinion, we're possessed by a cultural epidemic of think
       | pieces doing rich and nuanced science history, but wrongly framed
       | in the form of correcting "myths" that, in their substance amount
       | to quibblings over narrative emphasis. It's easy to get taken in
       | by the framing because it truly is enlightening, and the argument
       | goes down so smooth because its embedded in a rich, curious, and
       | fascinating scientific history that otherwise embodies best
       | practices I would happily celebrate.
       | 
       | But the key details about the story of penicillin are that a
       | moldy plate showed bacteria-free clearing, Fleming saw it,
       | isolated the mold, proved its germ-killing filtrate and published
       | the finding, which is the heart of the story and which is not a
       | myth.
       | 
       | I'm sure it's true enough that St Mary's windows were usually
       | kept shut to keep pathogens in and contaminants out, that
       | London's August 1928 cold snap would have slowed staph growth,
       | that Fleming's first notes Or 8 weeks later than the actual
       | event, and that a modern plate seeded with bacteria first will
       | not produce the celebrated halo unless the mold is given a head
       | start. The article makes much of the fact that today's
       | researchers cannot reproduce the famous halo if they add staph
       | first, yet that difficulty rebuts a sequence Fleming never
       | claimed to have used.
       | 
       | These points are significant, even fascinating, yet the article
       | inflates them into a strobe-lit "MYTH" banner, turning normal
       | human imprecision about times and temperatures into evidence of
       | wholesale fiction, which abuses the ordinary friction of any
       | retrospective account and punishes the story for the very human
       | messiness that makes it instructive.
       | 
       | The window quibble, the incubator gap, and the replication
       | protocol do not touch the central, uncontested fact that chance
       | contamination plus observational curiosity gave medicine its
       | first antibiotic.
        
         | kieranmaine wrote:
         | > The window quibble, the incubator gap, and the replication
         | protocol do not touch the central, uncontested fact that chance
         | contamination plus observational curiosity gave medicine its
         | first antibiotic.
         | 
         | This is the same conclusion as the article. IMO, the importance
         | of challenging the myth is that it has hisotrically taken
         | precendence over your (and the article's) conclusion.
         | 
         | FTA
         | 
         | > Fleming's 1929 penicillin paper may have been written as a
         | linear process, but that's almost certainly not how the
         | discovery occurred. And by eliminating these complicated twists
         | and turns, Fleming inadvertently obscured what may be one of
         | the most important lessons in scientific history: how combining
         | a meticulous research program with the openness to branch out
         | into new directions led him to Nobel Prize-winning success.
         | Neither rigid plans nor the winds of chance are enough on their
         | own; discovery requires both.
        
         | awkward wrote:
         | It's a myth in the most literal way. Fleming published and
         | promoted his results despite a lack of reproducibility. By the
         | time he won the Nobel Prize, he had backformed or misremembered
         | a folksy story about an open window. That's textbook
         | mythmaking.
         | 
         | It can both be fine to have a glib story to tell schoolkids and
         | important to recognize that the actual intellectual process is
         | messier and more complex.
        
         | quesera wrote:
         | Definitely worded for clicks, but remember that "myth" doesn't
         | mean "false story", it just means "story".
        
       | mandevil wrote:
       | The cartoon 60% of the way down the article definitely feels like
       | an "artists barely concealed fetish" thing.
        
       | jjk166 wrote:
       | Hare's theory predicts that there would need to be a cold snap at
       | just the right time, and lo and behold there was. Probability
       | isn't an issue if the only reason you are considering the
       | probability is because the event already happened. Indeed the low
       | probability of such an event transpiring goes a long way towards
       | explaining why the discovery was not made earlier.
       | 
       | Root-Bernstein's theory makes no such testable predictions, and
       | it solves the issue of an incomplete record on September 3rd with
       | incomplete or inaccurate records elsewhere. It seems to me
       | extremely plausible that fleming did not record the results of a
       | botched, uncontrolled experiment but still recognized it as an
       | indicator of something interesting that warranted follow-up. If I
       | were in his position I would preserve the random dish for
       | comparison to the more rigorous follow up experiment. I certainly
       | don't put any stock into the argument that if the story had gone
       | as Root-Bernstein describes it would have been too circuitous for
       | scientific publishing, if anything it would be much more
       | harmonious with standard scientific writing than the chance
       | observation story.
        
         | jonny_eh wrote:
         | > I would preserve the random dish for comparison to the more
         | rigorous follow up experiment
         | 
         | This would also explain why the dish was treated with
         | formaldehyde for preservation, and why the dish still exists
         | today.
        
         | PoignardAzur wrote:
         | Yeah, I don't see the huge improbability here.
         | 
         | Given that we know that:
         | 
         | - Fleming lived next door to an unsecure mycology lab.
         | 
         | - The temperature during the time period was low enough that if
         | Fleming had left a contaminated culture unattended and non-
         | incubated, he would have had a very high chance of getting the
         | results he became famous for...
         | 
         | Well, given that the probability of discovering penicillin in
         | those conditions is pretty high (say, if he forgot/neglected to
         | incubate one out twenty batches, a 5% chance), and the prior
         | probability of discovering penicillin any other way is
         | extremely low (otherwise other scientists would have found it),
         | bayesian calculus says the stroke of luck hypothesis is
         | probably correct.
        
       | mandevil wrote:
       | Best take on serendipty versus effort in the history of science
       | is, naturally enough, from Monty Python:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1Hu0f_ti9EQ
       | 
       | Text from http://montypython.50webs.com/scripts/Series_3/99.htm
       | 
       | "Presenter[John Cleese]: Penguins, yes, penguins. What relevance
       | do penguins have to the furtherance of medical science? Well,
       | strangely enough quite a lot, a major breakthrough, maybe. It was
       | from such an unlikely beginning as an unwanted fungus
       | accidentally growing on a sterile plate that Sir Alexander
       | Fleming gave the world penicillin. James Watt watched an ordinary
       | household kettle boiling and conceived the potentiality of steam
       | power. Would Albert Einstein ever have hit upon the theory of
       | relativity if he hadn't been clever? All these tremendous leaps
       | forward have been taken in the dark. Would Rutherford ever have
       | split the atom if he hadn't tried? Could Marconi have invented
       | the radio if he hadn't by pure chance spent years working at the
       | problem? Are these amazing breakthroughs ever achieved except by
       | years and years of unremitting study? Of course not. What I said
       | earlier about accidental discoveries must have been wrong. "
        
       | fn-mote wrote:
       | I wish this story were not framed as a "myth". Far fewer people
       | would read it if they knew the (presumed) truth - a small
       | deviation from the story.
        
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