[HN Gopher] X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch
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X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch
Author : sva_
Score : 391 points
Date : 2025-11-11 21:18 UTC (1 days ago)
(HTM) web link (www.spaceweatherlive.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.spaceweatherlive.com)
| abujazar wrote:
| Also: 100 % cloud cover in basically all of Northern Europe :/
| Iceland is probably the place to be for the aurora show!
| onion2k wrote:
| Yep. It's raining pretty hard here in the North East of the UK.
| Not much point in going to look.
| SoftTalker wrote:
| "...geomagnetic storm watch for tomorrow as the cloud could
| impact our planet as early as 16 UTC on 12 November"
| onion2k wrote:
| UK in November... It'll be raining again tomorrow.
| greenbit wrote:
| Ah, but tonight it's raining _protons_
| dom96 wrote:
| Yep, clouds... clouds everywhere
| https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/cloud-
| cover...
| thebruce87m wrote:
| Note to non-UK readers:
|
| Most of the time when someone says they are in the "North
| East of the UK" it's not some Scotsman up in Shetland it is
| an English person who is currently in the North East of
| England.
|
| The North East of England is in the middle part of the UK
| mainland.
| lukan wrote:
| So .. they don't see scotland as part of the UK anyway? Why
| was it such an issue then that they wanted to leave? (And
| why were there bloody wars fought about it in the first
| place?)
| hdgvhicv wrote:
| Who wanted to leave? What wars?
| kjs3 wrote:
| Someone with a tiny little...um...axe to grind and not
| enough sense to take it someplace where people care. You
| can tell when they have to go back to Culloden to try and
| drag something up to wave around.
| lukan wrote:
| Scotland the UK? (They were allowed to vote in the end
| and voted to remain)
|
| And wars happened when scotland was forced to become part
| of the UK in medieval times. (Braveheart)
| hdgvhicv wrote:
| So Scotland didn't want to leave. And Scotland didn't
| unite with England until after the Scottish King took
| over he English throne hundreds of years after the time
| of William Wallace
|
| You might be confusing the U.K. with the USA where a pet
| of the country there wanted to leave and were refused and
| that did lead to war, and that happened far more recently
| than 700 years ago.
| lukan wrote:
| Are we on the same timeline here?
|
| I spoke about
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence
| permo-w wrote:
| I think most people say "the North East" as a synecdoche
| for "the North East of England". the commenter being
| referred to likely just misspoke
| inopinatus wrote:
| Similarly, the part of your body commonly referred to as
| "the bottom" is in fact closer to half-way down and not at
| the bottom at all.
|
| I will leave any possible joke about being legless after a
| night out in Newcastle-upon-Tyne to the experts.
| lukan wrote:
| "Most of the time when someone says they are in the
| "North East of the UK" it's not some Scotsman up in
| Shetland it is an English person who is currently in the
| North East of England."
|
| So you think this is simply wrong? (Like this)
| lukan wrote:
| (Wrong reply, too late to delete)
| kilroy123 wrote:
| It's raining off and on in London as well.
| mr_toad wrote:
| No sun 'til next week :-(
| sva_ wrote:
| In northern Germany, it seems like clouds will clear up
| tomorrow night, when the CME arrives, according to meteoblue? I
| can only hope.
| DonaldFisk wrote:
| Scotland, 56 degrees north - I was able to see the aurora
| through occasional gaps in fast moving clouds around 0400hrs.
| Red, easily visible to the naked eye.
| Arainach wrote:
| > could impact our planet as early as 16 UTC on 12 November
|
| Is that 16:00 or 00:16?
| aaronmdjones wrote:
| 16 hundred hours; 16:00. Since revised down to midday (12 UTC).
|
| https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sid...
| deskamess wrote:
| Bad timing for North America Eastern TZ - day break here.
| Pacific/Mountain TZ should be fine.
| CoastalCoder wrote:
| In Rhode Island it seems like auroras practically guarantee
| overcast skies.
|
| Update: tonight the sky is clear and the air is frigid. I
| guess this logically implies there won't be an aurora :)
| aftbit wrote:
| ISO timestamps are the one true way:
|
| 2025-11-12T16Z
| brcmthrowaway wrote:
| Could this destroy the ISS?
| natebc wrote:
| no
| abujazar wrote:
| No, they'll just get a spectacular view of the aurora.
| fghorow wrote:
| [1] is a real-time forecast for the auroral oval. See if you are
| in with a chance. Clear Skies!
|
| [1] https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-
| activity/auroral...
| LeoPanthera wrote:
| They seem to be scraping the forecast images from
| https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-exper...
| xattt wrote:
| Atlantic Canada is sorely underrepresented on the city charts,
| even though many locations would have amazing viewing.
| elpakal wrote:
| Hmm. It says my city has 0% chance of visibility but I'm
| looking at it outside right now.
| snitzr wrote:
| Are we doomed by the next Carrington Event?
| hrnnnnnn wrote:
| Probably not.
|
| https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/space-weather-and-c...
| LargoLasskhyfv wrote:
| That one was weak. Try
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyake_event instead.
| AngryData wrote:
| Possibly, but not from this event, it isn't nearly that strong.
| rpcope1 wrote:
| You can see the real time magnetic field change when it hits:
| https://dasi.barlow.cpi.com/dashboard
| perihelions wrote:
| This seems to be a distinct but similar magnetometer network,
| with global reach,
|
| https://intermagnet.org/data_download.html
|
| Example data, (Neumayer Station III in Antarctica)
|
| https://imag-data.bgs.ac.uk/GIN_V1/GINForms2?observatoryIaga...
|
| I wonder why there doesn't seem to be any website with a _map
| view_ of all of the planet 's magnetometers. Looks like there
| should be more than enough data to make an interesting livemap.
|
| Here's a list of the sites,
|
| https://www.gfz.de/en/section/geomagnetism/infrastructure/ge...
| tiagod wrote:
| >I wonder why there doesn't seem to be any website with a map
| view of all of the planet's magnetometers. Looks like there
| should be more than enough data to make an interesting
| livemap.
|
| Another project for the queue...
| superkuh wrote:
| We won't know any actionable detail till about 1 hour before it
| arrives at Earth. That's when interplanetary coronal mass
| ejections actually have their magnetic field orientation and
| intensity measured by ACE and other satellites far out at the L1
| lagrange point: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-
| swepam-24-hour...
|
| If you see the red line on this plot^, the interplanetary
| magnetic field, be more than -10 nanotesla for about 4 hours then
| there's a good chance of lower than normal latitude aurora.
| Negative means the magnetic field is pointing downwards out of
| the ecliptic plane of the solar system and this is the most
| energetically favorable orientation for reconnecting CME magnetic
| field lines with Earth's magnetic field lines and letting solar
| particles/energy in.
|
| It can be 20nT positive (upwards) magnetic field with intense
| density and high velocity but still be a non-event aurora-wise
| just because energy is delivered to the Earth's ring currents at
| 10x slower rate than if it's pointing downwards.
|
| None of the WSA-ENLIL or related predictive models take into
| consideration the magnetic field orientation of iCMEs because
| it's really hard to know from remote observations. They can be
| thought of as warnings to pay attention to the ACE L1
| measurements.
| Havoc wrote:
| Nice comment. Thanks for explaining
| meindnoch wrote:
| Carrington event 2.0?
| sva_ wrote:
| Definitely no.
| codr7 wrote:
| Not yet, there's a whole bunch of wildcards in the air right
| now.
| nreilly wrote:
| This has a pretty good view of the aurora now:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfF9bhaBuvw
| sva_ wrote:
| That's really cool! But that's actually one of the previous
| CMEs, not this one. Very nice to see nonetheless.
| Casteil wrote:
| Nice. Looks like it was peaking around 21:00 - 22:00 local
| time, got pretty intense for a while.
| aussieguy1234 wrote:
| looks like i'll be going out tonight
| sigmaprimus wrote:
| what effect if any will the solar flare emissions have on the new
| ish constellation style satellite networks? and or vice versa? EG
| would a shielded group or constellation provide a pathway for
| charge particles around the Earth?
| drmpeg wrote:
| A severe geomagnetic storm is starting now (November 12 0000Z).
| But it's from the previous X-flares (X1.7 and X1.2), not the X5.1
| flare.
| mr_toad wrote:
| From what I've read that could be bad, because prior flares can
| clear a path (through the solar wind) for later flares to move
| faster and hit harder.
| codr7 wrote:
| Right, this three punch combo couldn't have been planned
| better.
| hnburnsy wrote:
| G4 reached...
|
| https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-severe-storm-levels-reache...
|
| >G4 (Severe) Storm Levels Reached! published: Wednesday, November
| 12, 2025 01:40 UTC G4 (Severe) storm levels reached on 12
| November at 0120 UTC (8:20pm EST)! Geomagnetic storm conditions
| are anticipated to continue into the night. Stay informed at
| spaceweather.gov for the latest. The included aurora images are
| of the aurora shining over northeastern Colorado.
| sva_ wrote:
| Be aware that this is from a previous X flare, afaik
| gpm wrote:
| Reports of seeing the aurora right now across North America down
| to the US/Mexico border. If that describes you and you're not
| under cloud cover (like I unfortunately am) I'd recommend going
| outside and finding somewhere dark with a clear view north.
|
| Cell phone cameras see it better than people for whatever reason,
| so looking at it through your phone is an option.
|
| Request for "very low latitude" pictures from a researcher here:
| https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3m5...
| jodacola wrote:
| Fully visible with naked eye in Kansas City. Beautiful magenta
| hues in the sky. My first time seeing an aurora in person.
| alexgaribay wrote:
| I see it as well in southern KC. I've been to Alaska in the
| winter with hopes to the see the Northern Lights. Pretty
| awesome to see it this far south!
| mr_toad wrote:
| Billions of tonnes of matter ejected at millions of kph. It's
| shame we can't harness that energy.
| mouse_ wrote:
| it would have to be quite the harness.
| gpm wrote:
| Perhaps we should start with more local less violent events
| like hurricanes and volcanic eruptions.
| cwillu wrote:
| The regular photons are a start
| AlexErrant wrote:
| If you're in [redacted], was visible about 15m ago
| https://imgur.com/a/36cncec
|
| Not so much now, but maybe it'll come back!
| bobmcnamara wrote:
| Down in northern Missouri too
| drewnick wrote:
| Upstate South Carolina as well
| NooneAtAll3 wrote:
| relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2233/
| therobots927 wrote:
| I saw this in the Denver area in Colorado, US an hour and a half
| ago. I looked up and couldn't believe the sky was red. Took me a
| while to realize it was the aurora borealis. Very cool!
| vvladymyrov wrote:
| 15 min ago I saw it north from Denver - half of the sky was
| red.
| HaZeust wrote:
| Checking in from Littleton - saw it as well! My friend all the
| way from Grand Junction CO posted photos too
| TechDebtDevin wrote:
| Pics I took in Denver!
|
| https://imgur.com/gallery/northern-lights-denver-zPF7PJC
| JKCalhoun wrote:
| Dad sent me a photo [1] from Alaska of the red light. He said
| they rarely get it "so far south" (he is in southern Alaska).
|
| [1] (Not a great photo, but you get the idea.)
| https://imgur.com/a/TfkcbJQ
| esseph wrote:
| On the Kenai Peninsula? Great spot if so!
| JKCalhoun wrote:
| Yep, Homer.
| throw48753 wrote:
| I know there are a lot of comments from people saying they've
| seen it, but as I understand it this solar flare won't hit until
| 16h UTC, or about 12 hours from now, and there are two weaker
| flares hitting about now that are currently visible? Is that
| understanding correct?
| throwawaymaths wrote:
| Yes, and it's in the article.
| Digory wrote:
| So - even bigger tomorrow? Tonight was pretty amazing.
| shashanoid wrote:
| cool super amazing
| aussieguy1234 wrote:
| G4 is happening now https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-
| watches-and-warnin...
| schainks wrote:
| I can currently photograph this on my mobile phone in seattle
| from my backyard, good times!
| Animats wrote:
| US power grid info:
|
| PJM: Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning
| 11.11.2025 19:25 (PJM times are Eastern Standard).
| PJM-RTO
|
| _A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 19:25 on
| 11.11.2025 through 04:00 on 11.12.2025 . A GMD warning of K7 or
| greater is in effect for this period._
|
| This is only a warning. There are no listed actions being taken.
| When you see Geomagnetic Disturbance Action, not just Warning,
| there's a problem. That happened most recently on June 1, 2025.
| Extra people are probably on standby all night in case something
| happens.
|
| CAISO: Nothing.
|
| ERCOT: Nothing.
|
| Hydro-Quebec: Multiple snow-related outages near Montreal and
| some other locations.
|
| Background info from the last time HN got wound up about this.[1]
|
| [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44152154
| Animats wrote:
| PJM warning is still in effect as of the next morning, but
| there are still no related actions.
| PeaceTed wrote:
| Down in Victoria, Australia. Looks like the clouds should clear
| just in time for night fall and a decent show. Very cool.
| rhinoceraptor wrote:
| I'm disappointed I missed it, I had disabled my Aurora phone
| alert after it woke me up for a 1% chance of seeing it a few
| weeks ago. I saw a bit of light in SE Michigan at about 1:30 AM
| EST, but just a tinge of green.
| AnimalMuppet wrote:
| It's not over - check back tonight.
| beAbU wrote:
| I'm in Ireland and went out last night to try and find it, last
| year I got some spectacular photos from my bedroom window. Alas
| it only peaked as it was over the US so sadly I missed out.
|
| Ireland is far enough north that we actually get the aurora
| somewhat regularly. We rarely have clear skies though, making it
| a true "planets align" thing to actually see it.
| Balinares wrote:
| There were some beautiful ones overhead around 2am and I slept
| right through them. Ah well.
| zombot wrote:
| Too bad, it's not about a wristwatch that displays geomagnetic
| storms.
| gattr wrote:
| Shameless plug: active region (and sunspot group) 4274 has
| already produced several X-class solar flares, alas, I didn't
| manage to catch one during my short weekend imaging session.
| Though there was a nice prominence; 38-min time lapse (Earth to
| scale):
|
| https://app.astrobin.com/u/GreatAttractor?i=9tkxay#gallery
| PetitPrince wrote:
| The Swiss Weather Office official app has a crowdsourced photo
| gallery:
|
| https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/services-et-publications/ap...
|
| Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November:
| you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from
| Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't
| keep the pictures forever).
| dotancohen wrote:
| The curvature of the Earth can be deducted from those photos on
| the map! It is clear to see the aurora completely above the
| horizon in the Northern Swiss photos, and straddling the
| horizon in the photos from the south.
| argiope wrote:
| This photo gallery also provides very nice pictures around
| Germany and the Alps: https://www.foto-
| webcam.eu/2025/11/12/0330
| doodlebugging wrote:
| https://Spaceweather.com has a link to some photos taken in El
| Salvador at 13N Lat. Last night was a great show for sure.
|
| I enjoyed it for about 5 hours out here west of DFW. I hope the
| actual X5.1 event due to arrive in the next 3-5 hours will
| persist into the evening so I get another show.
| ofalkaed wrote:
| Aurora is going pretty strong here in northern Minnesota, filling
| most of the sky. A jet is going over way up there right now, they
| must be getting a hell of a show.
| apawloski wrote:
| Is there a way to connect the Alert/Warnings/Watches from SWPC to
| specific events? It seems like there are at least three different
| solar events and it's hard for me to understand if they've all
| passed or if we're expecting more.
| drmpeg wrote:
| The CME from the X5.1 flare has not arrived yet. Here are the
| websites I use:
|
| https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
|
| https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...
|
| https://www.spaceweather.com/
|
| https://space.umd.edu/pm/
| apawloski wrote:
| That's what I'm most curious about -- how do you see that it
| hasn't arrived yet when you're looking at SWPC?
|
| Here is the SWPC forecast [0]
|
| Time_UTC,Nov_12,Nov_13,Nov_14
|
| 00-03UT,8.67 (G4),6.67 (G3),4.67 (G1)
|
| 03-06UT,8.33 (G4),6.33 (G2),4.00
|
| 06-09UT,7.00 (G3),6.00 (G2),3.33
|
| 09-12UT,7.00 (G3),4.67 (G1),3.67
|
| 12-15UT,6.00 (G2),4.00,3.33
|
| 15-18UT,5.67 (G2),3.33,3.00
|
| 18-21UT,7.67 (G4),4.33,3.00
|
| 21-00UT,6.00 (G2),4.67 (G1),3.33
|
| So I guess 18-21UTC today it'll get around 7.7kP, but that's
| lower than what hit this morning, when I'd expect X5.1 to be
| larger? Is that how I should interpret this?
|
| [0] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-
| enthusia...
| drmpeg wrote:
| Yes, you have it correct.
|
| However, predicting the effects of solar flares is very
| difficult. Not only does the particle stream have to hit
| the Earth, it has to couple with the magnetic field.
|
| Large flares can cause small events on Earth and vice
| versa.
| apawloski wrote:
| Thanks for clarifying. I'm bummed that I didn't
| prioritize going out last night to observe. I was
| thinking bigger glare would be better aurora tonight.
| billnad wrote:
| I also use https://spaceweathernews.com/ Lots of data in
| there for us to see the sources and effects
| scorpionnegro wrote:
| D Informacion de las representativas formulas para encuestar e
| secuestrar el circulo matematico q carcule la fuerza de velocidad
| es en el encontrar la fisica cuantica
| Polizeiposaune wrote:
| The flare is delaying a rocket launch due to concerns about the
| potential impact on the payload (two spacecraft bound for Mars):
|
| "NG-2 Update: New Glenn is ready to launch. However, due to
| highly elevated solar activity and its potential effects on the
| ESCAPADE spacecraft, NASA is postponing launch until space
| weather conditions improve. We are currently assessing
| opportunities to establish our next launch window based on
| forecasted space weather and range availability."
|
| https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1988621902881914961
| betteryet wrote:
| Love the use of space weather
| groos wrote:
| This aurora looks predominantly red. The last big one had pinks
| and greens easily visible to the naked eye. I wonder what causes
| the difference.
| keehun wrote:
| Has all to do with solar flare energy levels and how/where it
| interacts in the atmosphere. [1][2]
|
| [1]: https://www.space.com/aurora-colors-explained
|
| [2]: https://www.nps.gov/articles/-articles-aps-v8-i1-c9.htm
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(page generated 2025-11-12 23:02 UTC)