[HN Gopher] Canadian military will rely on public servants to bo...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Canadian military will rely on public servants to boost its ranks
       by 300k
        
       Author : Teever
       Score  : 67 points
       Date   : 2025-11-10 16:55 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ottawacitizen.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ottawacitizen.com)
        
       | abrichr wrote:
       | https://archive.is/G4oZo
        
       | colechristensen wrote:
       | Sign of the times, Canada is so afraid of the instability of
       | America that they're low-key drafting public servants on a
       | voluntary basis for now into the military.
       | 
       | Canadians are our closest brothers and sisters and it's just a
       | historical quirk that we're separate countries at all.
        
         | _verandaguy wrote:
         | I resent the implication that us being separate countries is a
         | "historical quirk." It's condescending at best and exemplifies
         | why we feel increasingly distant from the US.
         | 
         | It's like saying that Belgium and the Netherlands, or Spain and
         | Portugal, or Germany and Switzerland are one historical quirk
         | away from being the same countries.
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | I mean, it's entirely possible that a historic quirk 300+
           | years ago leads to an increasingly distant relationship
           | today.
           | 
           | It's definitely possible to intepret this the way Russia
           | speaks about Ukraine - "They shouldn't even be a country
           | *except for a historical quirk", but a charitable
           | interpretation would be more along the lines of "things could
           | have gone slightly differently and we'd be countrymen, but
           | instead we brothers from a different mother (country)".
        
             | _verandaguy wrote:
             | After this past year of US political discourse, you'll
             | forgive me for not extending the benefit of the doubt
             | anymore.
        
             | tokai wrote:
             | No need to interpret. The exact same line colechristensen
             | wrote has been used by Russias about Ukraine many times.
        
           | JuniperMesos wrote:
           | > It's like saying that Belgium and the Netherlands, or Spain
           | and Portugal, or Germany and Switzerland are one historical
           | quirk away from being the same countries.
           | 
           | I think you could say this about any of those countries,
           | although Switzerland's mountainous location means that it
           | would always resist being part of a larger polity.
        
             | potato3732842 wrote:
             | > means that it would always resist being part of a larger
             | polity.
             | 
             | More like it can resist in a more cost effective way and
             | that subjugating them is worth less.
        
           | mmooss wrote:
           | It also reprises one of Russia's claims to Ukraine, and that
           | of many other expansionist dictators through history.
           | 
           | Maybe the US should be part of Canada?
        
           | Maxatar wrote:
           | >It's condescending at best and exemplifies why we feel
           | increasingly distant from the US.
           | 
           | As a Canadian, why would it be condescending to suggest that
           | at some point in the distant past, Canada and the U.S. could
           | have been a single country had history played out slightly
           | differently? There is nothing offensive about it, if anything
           | the fact that it's a claim about a historical matter only
           | highlights how the two countries have evolved separately and
           | independently.
           | 
           | Furthermore your other points are kind of bizzare. Spain and
           | Portugal could absolutely have been a single country, and in
           | fact they were under the Iberian Union. There are numerous
           | other instances where the two countries came close to
           | unifying.
           | 
           | The historical possibility of a unified Belgium and the
           | Netherlands is even stronger since those two countries had
           | been unified twice.
           | 
           | Germany and Switzerland however is a long shot, but at any
           | rate I don't think anyone from Belgium, the Netherlands,
           | Spain or Portugal would take offense or find it condescending
           | that some historical event could have gone differently and
           | reshaped all of Europe... taking offense to that suggestion
           | as a Canadian, even during these times seems overly insecure
           | and I don't think it's a sentiment shared by most of us.
        
             | _verandaguy wrote:
             | It's condescending to describe it as a quirk, in the sense
             | that it's no more a quirk than anything else in history. In
             | the current climate where this sort of rhetoric has been
             | publicly and visibly used by Russia to justify their
             | invasion of Ukraine, and by the PRC to justify their
             | ongoing pressure campaigns against the ROC, I also don't
             | take this kind of wording at face value.
             | 
             | Wars were fought. People died, generations were involved in
             | discourse about national identity and where borders should
             | be drawn.
             | 
             | The US and Canada were both at one point British
             | properties, so by some definitions, we also used to be
             | unified. _Then we weren 't._
             | 
             | Is it insecure? Maybe. The reality is that in a shooting
             | war, we wouldn't last very long against the US, in all
             | likelihood. Under these conditions, the least I can do is
             | to push back against rhetoric that undermines our
             | legitimacy as our own country.
        
             | tiagod wrote:
             | Although I don't deny it could've happened, Spain and
             | Portugal were different kingdoms during the Iberian Union
             | (Philip II of Spain was known as Philip I of Portugal.)
        
           | kakacik wrote:
           | I've heard the same rhetoric (we're brothers, all will be
           | fine) from many russians days before 2022 star of proper war
           | in Ukraine. This feeling sadly means nothing in large enough
           | scale.
        
           | tick_tock_tick wrote:
           | > I resent the implication that us being separate countries
           | is a "historical quirk." It's condescending at best and
           | exemplifies why we feel increasingly distant from the US.
           | 
           | I mean that's a bit of an exaggeration. Canadians are
           | basically Americans for all practical purpose to the degree
           | you can barely tell them apart. It doesn't help that Canada
           | has lacked any real national identity other then listing the
           | few minor differences between it and the USA for decades.
        
             | xyzzy_plugh wrote:
             | > Canadians are basically Americans for all practical
             | purpose to the degree you can barely tell them apart. It
             | doesn't help that Canada has lacked any real national
             | identity other then listing the few minor differences
             | between it and the USA for decades.
             | 
             | Why does this even mean? Does national identity even really
             | matter? It's like saying Californians are basically Texans
             | for all practical purpose. Men and women are pretty
             | similar. To suggest that they're so similar they may as
             | well be the same is absolutely condescending.
        
               | tick_tock_tick wrote:
               | > Does national identity even really matter?
               | 
               | In the context of this whole article aka getting people
               | to join the military it 100% matters. Do you think people
               | are going to fight and die for a concept they don't care
               | about?
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | You are the one making the assumption that I meant Canada
           | should be controlled by the US when I meant and wrote no such
           | thing.
           | 
           | And Europe _absolutely_ should unite under a single
           | government instead of this pseudo national semi-single-
           | currency/market with a vague poorly representative European
           | government designed mostly just to dance around the fact that
           | these small states are stuck on archaic nationalist ideas and
           | can't get along with a unified purpose. The world needs the
           | strength a unified Europe could provide to counteract Russian
           | aggression, the growth of Chinese power, and the crumbling
           | cornerstone of world order the US is going through.
           | 
           | Being offended is strange.
        
           | dboreham wrote:
           | Those are examples not counterexamples.
        
         | everdrive wrote:
         | Perhaps another sign of the times: commenters are responding
         | with animosity to your suggestion that Americans and Canadians
         | are incredibly close.
        
           | exe34 wrote:
           | I imagine it's hard to feel too close to people who elected a
           | clown who wants to invade you.
        
         | guyzero wrote:
         | It's a historic quirk that the US is a single country. It
         | hardly feels like one most days.
        
           | qball wrote:
           | The same is true of Canada, but to a far greater extent since
           | Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal have a permanent veto on whatever the
           | rest of the country wants. The US political system, for all
           | its other faults, has successfully avoided this problem.
           | 
           | It is not a surprise that region can't find anyone else (in
           | the rest of the economic zone over which it claims dominion)
           | willing to die for its interests, especially when their
           | interests have been revealed to be nothing but "loot the rest
           | of the nation".
        
             | 1986 wrote:
             | We have the opposite problem, where if you live in NYC or
             | LA your vote basically doesn't matter at the national level
        
               | qball wrote:
               | Yet, that compromise means NYC and LA can still field an
               | all-volunteer army of people who tend not to be from NYC
               | and LA.
               | 
               | Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal, demonstrably, cannot do that.
               | 
               | Which of the two strategies do you think give the cities
               | a greater chance of survival?
        
           | vdupras wrote:
           | american: you're the historical quirk!
           | 
           | canadian: no, you're the historical quirk!
           | 
           | native american: you're both historical twerps.
        
         | chawco wrote:
         | Yeah, it's not a historical quirk, really. In talking to many
         | Americans it seems like they don't really cover loyalists at
         | all, or what happened after the Revolutionary War. Much of what
         | became Canada was settled by former colonists from the what
         | became the United States who remained loyal to the crown. My
         | hometown was founded by loyalists from New York -- including
         | the mayor of New York City -- after the Revolutionary War.
         | 
         | Essentially we are even closer than many people think in terms
         | of history, but Canadian identity was seeded from the beginning
         | with the idea of rejecting being "American". We are indeed your
         | closest brothers and sisters because of history, but it's no
         | quirk at all that we're separate -- it's the entire reason we
         | stayed separate at all.
         | 
         | You can also see the reverse play out -- what would become
         | Alberta was settled by large numbers of American colonists
         | moving to Canada, and to this day you can see the cultural
         | impact of that in the politics and world view from the region.
        
       | fidotron wrote:
       | The most damning thing about this is the Canadian gov would
       | struggle to find 300k people in the rest of the population that
       | it would trust with skilling up in those ways. Federal public
       | servants will be the last bastion of the values they try to force
       | on everyone else.
       | 
       | It is in the process of spending vast amounts of money to remove
       | guns from legal gun owners that are subject to absolutely amazing
       | amounts of oversight already.
        
         | thunderfork wrote:
         | I don't think this is true. It's just much easier to bring in
         | people when you have access to them to ask directly, basically.
         | 
         | In my short experience in public service, I met a great number
         | of people who were not in lockstep with the so-called "values
         | they try to force" (i.e. the political plans of the current
         | government), so it seems they're not doing a great job of
         | "forcing" those values if that's the plan.
        
           | fidotron wrote:
           | They have enough problems keeping the people they currently
           | have in the military on the same page.
           | 
           | https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rcmp-caf-charges-
           | terrorism-...
           | 
           | The general response to this was amazement that the MP or
           | RCMP actually did anything about it, given what occurs within
           | those.
        
         | ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote:
         | HN seems to hate this but you're right. The type of people the
         | military relies on are not in power in Canada and haven't been
         | for some time.
        
           | busterarm wrote:
           | Especially when most of them are in Western Canada, which
           | keeps threatening to leave.
        
       | incomingpain wrote:
       | Canada has been running about 1% of gdp military spending,
       | despite obligation of 2%; with new promise to meet 5%. a 500%
       | increase to the size of our military in short order is the
       | promise.
       | 
       | Our reserves are at about 40,000. They announced the plan to go
       | to 400,000. 10x the size. It's not so much about any outside
       | fears, it's just meeting our obligations.The fear about Russia or
       | China is unfounded. The problem is that the USA our greatest ally
       | isn't letting us use them as a shield.
       | 
       | >Federal and provincial employees would be given a one-week
       | training course in how to handle firearms, drive trucks and fly
       | drones, according to the directive, signed by Chief of the
       | Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan
       | 
       | There's only about 300,000 federal employees. Greater on the
       | provincial sides, but Canada isn't that big. Conscription will be
       | necessary to fulfill these numbers
       | 
       | >The public servants would be inducted into the Supplementary
       | Reserve, which is currently made up of inactive or retired
       | members of the Canadian Forces who are willing to return to duty
       | if called.
       | 
       | It says voluntary, but given the very significant % who need to
       | join and be subject to immediate activation. I dont expect many
       | to volunteer. Reserves at least pays you to have this cost.
       | Conscription will be necessary. They are forcing those government
       | employees ultimately.
        
         | koakuma-chan wrote:
         | Why is the US our greatest ally?
         | 
         | 36 stratagems says "Befriend a distant state and strike a
         | neighbouring one"
        
         | ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote:
         | >The problem is that the USA our greatest ally isn't letting us
         | use them as a shield.
         | 
         | I personally think that Canada can be our (US) greatest ally,
         | but this is only true in the hard-power sense of the word if
         | Canada does actually meet its defense obligations.
         | 
         | Canada has a huge coastline, directly adjacent to our most
         | significant threats (China & Russia), yet doesn't have a navy
         | to speak of.
         | 
         | We need Canada to step up to its own defense so we can keep
         | being equal allies, otherwise Canada is a de facto protectorate
         | and should pay for that privilege.
        
         | mmooss wrote:
         | > The fear about Russia or China is unfounded.
         | 
         | That dismisses the greatest security threats of the era with a
         | word. Most people in that field think those threats are very
         | well-founded. Should Canada take the risk that everything will
         | be fine?
         | 
         | I don't know much about Canada's current plans and how
         | effective they would be.
        
           | seanmcdirmid wrote:
           | Canada right now is trying to figure out if the greatest
           | their to their security is China or the USA. They can tie
           | their boat to either against the other, but they can't be
           | allies with both.
        
             | mmooss wrote:
             | Can they be allies with neither? They are trying to improve
             | relations with the EU and, most importantly, are members of
             | NATO (where the US is also a member).
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Economically not really. China and the USA are the top
               | economies, and China is only going to get more
               | economically powerful, alignment with one or the other in
               | trade at least is inevitable. The EU will be making
               | similar decisions to Canada, and I doubt Canada is going
               | to detach from Europe.
        
               | FuriouslyAdrift wrote:
               | China is completely dependant on other countries for it's
               | economic power (mostly the US) as an export economy.
               | 
               | They're also staring down a demographic crash, soon (10 -
               | 15% drop with 25% of the remaining polution over 65).
               | 
               | They are basically at their peak right now.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | > China is completely dependant on other countries for
               | it's economic power (mostly the US) as an export economy.
               | 
               | That is Trump's big lie, but it has no basis in reality.
               | This was the cornerstone of Trump's whole pressure agenda
               | on China, and it imploded quickly when the Chinese
               | indicated "We don't care about the American market, trade
               | is only 5% of our GDP, and we have lots of trading
               | partners."
               | 
               | > They're also staring down a demographic crash, soon (10
               | - 15% drop with 25% of the remaining polution over 65).
               | 
               | Investments in AI and automation make that iffy,
               | investments that, beyond AI, the USA is not making.
               | 
               | > They are basically at their peak right now.
               | 
               | That is the core of Trump's big lie on China, and again,
               | has no basis in reality.
        
               | Detrytus wrote:
               | It's always funny how people get this backwards: China
               | being an export economy means that the whole world is
               | dependent on them, not the other way around.
        
             | ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote:
             | Real question: Is any serious person advocating Canada
             | abandon the West for China? What's their analysis here? If
             | anyone has an article I can read I would love to do that.
        
               | incomingpain wrote:
               | >Real question: Is any serious person advocating Canada
               | abandon the West for China? What's their analysis here?
               | If anyone has an article I can read I would love to do
               | that.
               | 
               | In Canada? Oh yes, many serious liberals are advocating
               | ending with usa and becoming an ally with china. About a
               | month ago: https://globalnews.ca/news/11490896/canada-
               | strategic-partner...
               | 
               | Which resulted in the USA suspending all trade talks with
               | Canada the next day.
               | 
               | But over the last decade, the liberals also have ordered
               | various anti-china divestments:
               | https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-
               | canada/article...
               | 
               | not to mention: https://electrek.co/2025/10/27/canada-
               | rumored-immently-remov...
               | 
               | Which this 'imminent' factor never happened, but what was
               | imminent was right before this was the announcement of
               | various auto manufacturing moving production out of
               | canada. Not really much to do with china, more of a screw
               | you to the big 3.
               | 
               | China and Canada dont have a free trade agreement. The
               | FIPA agreement is likely to be ended soon as it's
               | possible.
               | 
               | Going from the antagonistic to a major trade deal and
               | changing to chinese alliance would be a bizarre change
               | though.
        
               | ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote:
               | Thank you I will read these!
        
               | gpm wrote:
               | With the qualification that Canada has absolutely no
               | intention of abandoning the West, merely the US. The
               | intent of the government and people is absolutely to
               | strengthen ties to western Europe, not weaken them.
        
               | tick_tock_tick wrote:
               | The "West" is the USA. Europe is a joke at projecting any
               | kind of power.
        
               | FuriouslyAdrift wrote:
               | I mean, Vancouver is heavily financially influenced by
               | China already...
        
             | SirFatty wrote:
             | "Canada right now is trying to figure out if the greatest
             | their to their security is China or the USA."
             | 
             | I very much doubt that is true. Unless the Canadian
             | government get's their information only from "truth"
             | social.
        
             | goalieca wrote:
             | The USA is a fantastic ally! When a small aircraft was
             | recently hijacked from Vancouver international airport,
             | guess which Air Force came to our rescue? Thank you!!
             | 
             | While there's a lot of news and media about trade wars with
             | the USA, the vast majority 85% of it remains under the free
             | trade agreement. China does not even come close to a free
             | and open market for us and their state sponsored corporate
             | espionage is a real and growing danger.
        
               | jonbiggums22 wrote:
               | I'd imagine the threats of annexation are more concerning
               | than the tariffs.
        
               | lawlessone wrote:
               | They might be more worried about the recent attempts to
               | annex them.
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/25/don
               | ald...
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | China didn't strongly suggest that Canada should become
               | its 23rd or 24th province. Also, if the USA keeps dipping
               | its feet into fascism every other 4 year election cycle,
               | every other western democracy is going to start pumping
               | lots of resources into a plan B
        
               | jack_tripper wrote:
               | _> China didn't strongly suggest that Canada should
               | become its 23rd or 24th province. _
               | 
               | China ransacked and then sank Nortel.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | So? If we are going to talk about economic damage, the
               | USA isn't going to come up looking better.
        
               | goalieca wrote:
               | In what world? We never had free and open access to
               | Chinas markets and they conduct massive amounts of
               | corporate espionage and state sponsored cyberattacks
               | against our companies daily.
        
               | wk_end wrote:
               | Neither here nor there, but the plane was hijacked in
               | Victoria and then flown over to Vancouver.
               | 
               | (Only picking this particular nit because, as a
               | Victorian, we constantly live in the shadow of our bigger
               | brother, so I need to shout us out when I can. And I fly
               | out of the flying club that the plane was hijacked from,
               | so it's a story that's particularly close to my heart.)
        
             | mikkupikku wrote:
             | > _Canada right now is trying to figure out if the greatest
             | [threat?] to their security is China or the USA._
             | 
             | How do you get China in that list? Canada would most likely
             | be challenged over their stake in the Arctic and Russia is
             | plainly the greatest threat in that regard, not China.
             | Russia has invested a great deal into arctic exploration
             | and exploitation and pretty clearly sees the region as free
             | real estate up for the taking. America too has a large
             | stake in the Arctic, but has developed comparably fewer
             | arctic capabilities than Russia. For Canada to have any
             | chance of repelling a Russian invasion of their arctic
             | territory would require America to help them, which under
             | present American leadership would be a piss poor position
             | for Canada to be in (not only because Trump has suggested
             | annexing Canada himself, but also because he's said similar
             | about Greenland, underscoring America's own desire to take
             | that same arctic territory.)
             | 
             | Now, I don't doubt that China would also like the Arctic
             | for themselves, but from Canada's perspective, the relative
             | threat of China must be less than that of Russia and
             | America.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Russia can't even invade Ukraine right, I think the world
               | sees them as pretty washed up as far as national security
               | goes (besides them having nukes). China is like Russia,
               | except richer, more disciplined, and not dumb. Canada
               | also has a higher GDP than Russia despite having a much
               | smaller population.
        
               | mikkupikku wrote:
               | Russia's arctic operational capability is world class,
               | exceeding even America by far. America could at least try
               | to engage Russia with submarine warfare and long range
               | missiles, but what could Canada do themselves, muster a
               | few hundred native locals armed with century old rifles?
               | Canada would be forced to go to America for help, which
               | might end up in Canada giving up some mineral rights at
               | least, if not substantial chunks of territory in whole.
               | 
               | Now, however unlikely you think Russia is to actually
               | start some kinetic shit in the Arctic, I think you're
               | crazy to rate their threat lower than China. China being
               | richer, more disciplined and less dumb only makes the
               | relative threat to Canada even smaller. Russia, being
               | relatively dumb, undisciplined, poor and increasingly
               | reliant on oil exports to prop up their economy makes the
               | probability of Russia daring to start shit higher, not
               | lower.
               | 
               | Edit: Some of you obviously don't take this seriously, so
               | here's a question for any of you. If Russia announces
               | they are going to be drilling oil in arctic waters that
               | are nominally Canada's, and declares their annexation of
               | this territory a fiat accompli, what is Canada's move?
               | Demand help from their NATO allies, which may or may not
               | include America? What if America declines and demands the
               | mineral rights to Canadian territory in exchange for
               | chasing Russia off Canada's sea floor? Canada sure as
               | hell can't fight Russia under the ice cap themselves.
               | Without a credible military response of their, Canada
               | must count on having reliable and powerful allies.
               | Russia's desire and motive are clear, they want the
               | arctic oil. China is dangerous in their own way, the PLAN
               | is very dangerous, but if they're going to start shit it
               | will be over Taiwan and if it involves anybody else it
               | will probably be the USN and maybe the JSDF, _not_
               | Canada. The real threat the PRC poses to Canada is
               | subversion of the Canadian political system, buying and
               | bribing their way through getting anything they want from
               | Canada. And that 's not the kind of threat you can
               | counter with military spending.
        
           | incomingpain wrote:
           | Russia is weak, they cant even take ukraine. To think they'd
           | have a shadow of a chance against NATO is a joke.
           | 
           | China is strong, their standing army is probably 300 million
           | and if they invaded canada. Our <100,000 CAF will be goners.
           | Since they havent done it, they either dont want to or
           | there's something external to canada protecting it. Either
           | case, an unfounded threat.
           | 
           | >I don't know much about Canada's current plans and how
           | effective they would be.
           | 
           | Ya that original comment about russia/china wasnt a
           | significant part of my post anyway.
        
             | jandrese wrote:
             | The idea that China is going to ship 300 million troops to
             | Canada seems absurd on its face. There is just no
             | geopolitical scenario where that happens.
             | 
             | This is more about Canada having enough troops to
             | contribute if NATO decides to intervene in a China-Taiwan
             | war.
        
             | ferguess_k wrote:
             | TBH I think taking land is stupid, at least taking a lot of
             | land is stupid because you are left with a huge cost and
             | people who hate you. The US has already gone past that
             | point and I doubt China wants to go back this route. Taiwan
             | for sure, but the rest of the world? meh.
        
             | mmooss wrote:
             | > China is strong, their standing army is probably 300
             | million
             | 
             | Maybe 1% of that. Also, numbers are important, but so are
             | equipment, training, and leadership.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | > China is strong, their standing army is probably 300
             | million and if they invaded canada. Our <100,000 CAF will
             | be goners.
             | 
             | Having 300 million people and being able to move them
             | _across the Pacific Ocean_ are two very different things.
             | 
             | Yeah, China's building a lot of landing craft. Are those
             | landing craft capable of a 10,000 mile voyage? I doubt it.
             | Does China have a way of loading and launching those ships
             | 100 miles from Canada? I doubt it.
        
             | stackedinserter wrote:
             | I wouldn't call Russia weak. They have their strengths, one
             | of which is insensitivity to losses. They can grind 20000
             | soldiers to get a small town, and nobody cares. Also, total
             | control over population, brainwashing the youth, military-
             | oriented economy.
             | 
             | Also, Russia knows how to operate in Arctic, and has real
             | combat experience that none of NATO countries have.
             | 
             | > To think they'd have a shadow of a chance against NATO is
             | a joke.
             | 
             | Which NATO with what army? Do you think Bundeswehr is
             | combat-ready? Is society in any NATO country (except Poland
             | and Finland) ready to fight?
             | 
             | Russians will easily take Baltic countries, for example, is
             | it NATO? Will NATO commit into full scale war with Russia
             | over Estonia? They don't even have guts to block shadow
             | fleet tankers and shoot russian drones over their own
             | territory. Or forget doing something, they can't even stop
             | buying russian oil and gas, because their population will
             | pay more and be upset.
             | 
             | Ukraine stopped them like a bag of teeth would grind teeth
             | of someone who decided to eat them. West is not Ukrainians,
             | even after all these wake-up calls.
        
             | chollida1 wrote:
             | > China is strong, their standing army is probably 300
             | million
             | 
             | You may want to check your facts:) The PLA is estimated to
             | be about 3M poeple at the high end of estimates and
             | probably closer to 2.5M people.
             | 
             | Which puts you at 100x too large:)
        
           | scotty79 wrote:
           | Greatest security threat so far turned out to be USA.
        
         | ferguess_k wrote:
         | Why don't they offer to all PRs and citizens? I'd like to learn
         | those skills...
        
         | kakacik wrote:
         | The only reason you can claim russia is not threat to you is
         | their utter corrupted incompetence which had them losing cold
         | war. In their mindset, every single one of you here living in
         | free democratic country, doing and thinking whatever you like
         | are a direct threat to their dictatorship and way of existence.
         | Canada has no reason to not be another russian gubernia, they
         | can come up with some made up claim like they would need one.
         | 
         | One would laugh at all this and ignore them if they didn't have
         | enough functional nukes to cover entire civilization few times
         | over.
         | 
         | Now I am not claiming the above about every russian person, nor
         | attacking their culture or history. Actually history yes, a
         | bit, its pretty sad and explains why they are as they are. They
         | consistently end up with ruling elite who thinks above, maybe
         | apart from Gorbachev (who is despised back home). Don't ever
         | make a mistake of underestimating how fucked up russia as a
         | country is. I keep repeating the same for past 2 decades (as
         | someone coming from country practically enslaved for 4 decades
         | by them) with people mostly laughing it off, apart from last 3
         | years.
        
       | groby_b wrote:
       | Just in case people miss the core message: This is something you
       | do if you have a credible risk assessment that you think a big
       | conflict is a possibility within the next decade or so.
       | 
       | And, as much as I'd like to focus on deteriorating Canada/US
       | relations, it's likely a dual purpose. The Ukraine/Russia/NATO
       | situation would be the second factor. OK, a triad, China/US is
       | also on the radar. Whatever the weighting, it's pushed Canada to
       | work on a mobilization framework, because the combined risk is
       | high enough.
       | 
       | Which means "oh shit" feelings are entirely appropriate, panic
       | isn't.
        
         | jandrewrogers wrote:
         | Most people haven't noticed until recently but many countries
         | around the world have been dramatically increasing their
         | defense spending for several years now, pre-dating and somewhat
         | independent of the Ukraine situation. Most of it is targeted
         | for operational capability by the end of this decade. Interpret
         | that how you will.
         | 
         | As an eye-popping number that illustrates this, just the
         | backlog of new foreign weapon sales awaiting approvals in the
         | US is almost $1T on its own. Countries are spending tremendous
         | amounts of money on advanced weapons right now.
        
           | ferguess_k wrote:
           | I think it's just they sense that US is no longer willing to
           | be the world police (with its good and bad), so they better
           | either prepare themselves for defence or prepare themselves
           | for offence to grab some lands they have been drooling over
           | for a while.
        
         | observationist wrote:
         | Any rational assessment of Canada's military capabilities, its
         | funding capabilities, and population will lead to a
         | determination that they're not in any sort of position to have
         | any sort of meaningful defense or offense without the US
         | running point.
         | 
         | For that to change would require generational shifts in culture
         | and revenue generation and so on. If the US chooses not to
         | defend them, they're exposing themselves to unacceptable risk.
         | If the US chooses to defend, Canada isn't contributing within
         | the same order of magnitude. If the US chose to attack, then
         | more has gone wrong in the world than you could possibly cope
         | with, having a few thousand more tanks, ships, and helicopters
         | isn't going to save the day. It'd take decades to build up
         | population, R&D infrastructure, resources, and so on, and
         | there'd likely be a lot of pressure to not do those things and
         | use the US military industrial complex instead.
         | 
         | Not saying this is good for Canada, btw, just that the reality
         | is they've kinda coasted on US coattails for decades now, and
         | for better or worse, they're stuck. Which should in turn beg
         | the question - if there's no practical or pragmatic point in
         | spending a bunch of money on military preparedness and
         | expansion, then why's that money being spent, and who's getting
         | paid? Why are bureaucrats being militarized, instead of a
         | discrete, well regulated military being created to meet
         | whatever the need was?
         | 
         | Strange politics.
        
           | ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote:
           | I wish I had written this. I think the exact same thing but
           | you articulated it much better than I have been able to.
        
           | qball wrote:
           | The bureaucrats are being militarized out of desperation.
           | 
           | The political faction all bureaucrats in the nation belong to
           | can't find enough soldiers. This is because they treat those
           | soldiers with contempt- no young man wants to die for Ottawa.
           | Plus, the volunteer soldiers that come back from Ukraine are
           | not going to be on Ottawa's side if domestic instability
           | ramped up, but will be familiar with the tools of modern
           | warfare.
           | 
           | Ottawa is currently (and perhaps rightfully) paranoid of a
           | domestic uprising just as much as it is of the US invading.
           | The US is strategically wrecking the economy of Canadian
           | citizens only a few hours away and if those citizens
           | violently insist on suing for peace Ottawa might lose its
           | power _forever_.
           | 
           | So, you do the next best thing- you take the faction with the
           | political power in Canada (in this case, Ottawa bureaucrats)
           | and tell them that if they want to keep their privileges,
           | they must join the reserve.
           | 
           | The fact that if any nation decided to actually attack they'd
           | instantly flee (bureaucrats are not known for their courage
           | under fire; that's why they're bureaucrats!) is a problem for
           | future them. What matters is that, to fuel the jingoism fire
           | long enough to keep the bureaucrat faction in power, they
           | need to be seen to be doing something, and this is that
           | something.
        
             | observationist wrote:
             | So it looks like they think they can keep the peasants in
             | line by going full police state with drones and ultra
             | surveillance? Good lord.
             | 
             | I respect regular Canadians quite a lot, but damn, Canadian
             | government officials seem like a social experiment in how
             | far you can push people before they blow up in your face.
             | 
             | Degens from up north indeed.
        
       | jjk166 wrote:
       | Seems like a generally good idea for creating a large reserve
       | force. It definitely beats general conscription.
       | 
       | I don't see why Canada in particular needs such a large reserve
       | force. This would jump Canada from number 127 to number 52 in
       | terms of percentage of population in reserves, and bump it up to
       | 17th in terms of absolute reserves size. For a nation with
       | basically zero chance of invasion of its home soil and an
       | extremely low risk of internal conflict, it's hard to imagine a
       | scenario where anywhere near this many reservists would be
       | required.
        
         | gpm wrote:
         | The US has been consistently signalling that it is considering
         | annexing us since Donald Trump was re-elected in November of
         | last year... the politicians are unlikely to say it outright
         | but I think this is pretty clearly aimed at the US and making
         | it too costly to do so.
        
           | electric_mayhem wrote:
           | Canada would be insane to not beef up its military at this
           | point. Mexico should, too.
        
             | swader999 wrote:
             | I'm ok with you guys taking over. You probably don't want
             | us though.
        
             | TulliusCicero wrote:
             | That Mexico has zero tanks or infantry fighting vehicles or
             | real self propelled artillery might tell you how they've
             | felt about the odds of the US actually invading again.
             | 
             | (IMO they should get some of these things even if there's
             | no chance of the US invading, given how much firepower some
             | of the cartels have.)
        
             | mikkupikku wrote:
             | If Mexico wants to deter America, their best bet by far is
             | to pose a credible insurgency threat. And in that regard,
             | between the number of Mexican nationals and sympathizers in
             | America, the number of guns in Mexico, the national pride
             | of the Mexican people, and their established proficiency
             | with asymmetric warfare (at least from their cartel
             | elements)... I think they've got their bases well covered.
             | Mexicans have the capacity to make an invasion of Mexico be
             | _extremely_ painful to the American public.
             | 
             | But Mexico using conventional military force to deter
             | America? That's completely absurd.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | Except America has shown that it would rather chew
               | through all it's resources and capability than accept
               | that "The public here doesn't want you, that wont change,
               | go home and save the effort"
               | 
               | How many people in the middle east did we blow up or
               | kill? For 20 years. For a supposed outcome we had no
               | chance of ever getting. Multiple presidents even.
               | 
               | The deterrence effect of an occupation didn't stop
               | Russia, did not stop the USA, does not stop someone who
               | believes you can just bomb the occupied lands harder
               | until all resistance is "quiet", and doesn't seem to be
               | stopping China from preparing itself for the occupation
               | of Taiwan.
        
           | tick_tock_tick wrote:
           | > the politicians are unlikely to say it outright but I think
           | this is pretty clearly aimed at the US and making it too
           | costly to do so.
           | 
           | lol this makes zero impact on that. The Canadian government
           | doesn't even think it's own solder would fight the USA or
           | sadly even run an insurgency. It's the consequence of trying
           | to minimize nationalism and being cultural dominated by the
           | USA for decades.
           | 
           | If the USA wants Canada it gets Canada.
        
           | jjk166 wrote:
           | The US invading Canada isn't a realistic possibility. Any
           | attempt to do so would trigger a civil war within the US, to
           | say nothing of obliterating the geopolitical system.
           | Attempting to annex in any way shape or form is currently
           | nothing more than the musings of an old man, the only way any
           | territorial changes could happen are through peaceful,
           | mutually agreed upon transfer.
           | 
           | If the US were to seriously entertain the notion of invading
           | its neighbor, 300,000 poorly trained reservists aren't going
           | to seriously change the calculus. Canada is strong per capita
           | but it has a fraction of the absolute population, military
           | strength, and economy of the US. Nearly all of its major
           | population centers are within extremely close proximity with
           | the US border. It's military and economy are both heavily
           | intertwined with the US, regardless of what rhetoric is being
           | thrown around. A reserve force is for freeing up the active
           | military to be used most effectively, defending key
           | chokepoints, launching offensives, and operating complicated
           | equipment, with the reservists doing things like preparing
           | defensive lines, manning low risk areas, and supporting
           | logistics. In a war between the US and Canada, the US would
           | be able to launch large assaults with professional soldiers
           | in multiple places with no natural obstacles over the short
           | distance between their origin and objectives. There would be
           | little for reservists to do to help - there would be no low
           | risk areas to man, no defenses to prepare, very little in the
           | ways of logistics to be concerned with. If Canada had serious
           | concerns about the US invading, its money would be better
           | spent on disentangling its armed forces from the US,
           | acquiring counters to US systems, and establishing defensible
           | positions between its border and major population centers.
        
             | silisili wrote:
             | > Any attempt to do so would trigger a civil war within the
             | US
             | 
             | What makes you say that?
             | 
             | I could see heavy protests, even violent protests, as it's
             | not something Americans want.
             | 
             | I'm not sure I could envision any semblance of an actual
             | civil war, though, but perhaps I'm underestimating things.
        
               | carlosjobim wrote:
               | > What makes you say that?
               | 
               | Because the group of men fit to fight such a war would
               | rather rebel against the government than fight a brother
               | war. From lowest recruit to highest general.
        
               | nemomarx wrote:
               | how are they handling being deployed to US cities right
               | now? I think they could be swayed into it with the right
               | rhetoric.
        
               | kulahan wrote:
               | The US military being deployed is doing things like
               | cleaning up trash, guarding federal buildings, and
               | otherwise goofing off. There's zero indication they'd be
               | easily swayed. Reserve Generals have directly stated they
               | will defend the state, not follow the Presidents orders.
        
               | jszymborski wrote:
               | Much as is the case in the US and Canada, families and
               | friends transcend the borders of Ukraine and Russia. That
               | wasn't enough to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
               | While Americans enjoy much, much broader freedoms of
               | expression (albeit that's also under great threat), I
               | wouldn't imagine the reaction from our American
               | "brothers" would be much different from Russian when it
               | invaded its "brother".
               | 
               | Your use of "brother" is apt. There's a Ukrainian joke
               | that goes something like:
               | 
               | "A Ukrainian man and a Russian man are walking together.
               | They happen upon a $20 bill on the sidewalk. The Russian
               | man says, 'Let us share it as brothers'. The Ukranian man
               | says 'No, let us share it equally'".
        
               | carlosjobim wrote:
               | I guess we'll find out when it happens (or not happens).
               | 
               | The only realistic scenario I can think of when your
               | American "brothers" would go to war across the border is
               | if the Canadian government commences war against its own
               | population. Then I could see the US government
               | intervening, or US fighters independent from the
               | government taking sides in Canada.
        
               | Teever wrote:
               | If the United States tries to seize Canada they will do
               | so after a protracted blockade in winter that coincides
               | with air strikes on Canadian infrastructure.
               | 
               | A lot of Canadians talk big talk about some sort of
               | insurgency like Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam but all
               | those places have borders with other countries that can
               | enable smuggling of supplies to the resistance.
               | 
               | Canada will be blockaded and after a period of cold and
               | hunger the Canadian people will give up.
        
               | aceofspades19 wrote:
               | How are you going to blockade an almost 9000 km long
               | border(with a huge variety of terrain) and a 243,000 km
               | long coastline? The US can't even stop drugs and people
               | coming through the 3,145 km border with Mexico. This
               | argument also presumes that no Americans would smuggle
               | supplies to Canada which seems unlikely to me because
               | lots of Americans & Canadians are either related or
               | friends.
        
             | vharuck wrote:
             | >The US invading Canada isn't a realistic possibility. Any
             | attempt to do so would trigger a civil war within the US
             | 
             | If you had told me this last year, but replaced "invading
             | Canada" with "sending armed military forces into cities
             | under false emergency declarations", I would've also
             | agreed. But here we are. Which state wants to be the first
             | to defect and pit it's national guard (half of whom would
             | probably desert) against the US military?
             | 
             | >If Canada had serious concerns about the US invading...
             | 
             | It's best course of action would be the same as any
             | individual preparing for a doomsday scenario: make friends
             | with those around you. If the US invades or even just
             | encroaches on Canada, I wonder if every European country
             | would realize they're next. Canada can't beat the US alone,
             | but it's allies could make it an extremely painful and
             | unpopular war for the American public.
        
             | dragonwriter wrote:
             | > The US invading Canada isn't a realistic possibility. Any
             | attempt to do so would trigger a civil war within the US
             | 
             | Ok, maybe, but then:
             | 
             | > In a war between the US and Canada, the US would be able
             | to launch large assaults with professional soldiers in
             | multiple places with no natural obstacles over the short
             | distance between their origin and objectives.
             | 
             | Given your earlier claim, surely you must believe that if
             | they defied your wisdom and chose this course of action,
             | they _wouldn 't_ be able to do this because they would have
             | to devote a substantial fraction of their military capacity
             | to domestic counterinsurgency efforts, leaving far more
             | limited combat power to actually execute the invasion?
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _The US invading Canada isn 't a realistic possibility_
             | 
             | Of course it is. Troops would just be moved to
             | "temporarily" occupy shit we want. (Or move to liberate
             | Alberta.) Hell, you could probably do it with ICE agents.
             | 
             | > _Any attempt to do so would trigger a civil war within
             | the US_
             | 
             | You'd take up arms against the U.S. because it invaded
             | Canada?
             | 
             | Of course you wouldn't. Neither would others. It would be
             | brushed way as an another atrocity.
             | 
             | > _300,000 poorly trained reservists aren 't going to
             | seriously change the calculus_
             | 
             | It's people you have to shoot through. Hong Kong versus
             | Ukraine. Raises the costs from a low-effort political
             | gambit to a real military campaign.
             | 
             | This comment reminds of one on _HN_ from Kharkiv on the eve
             | of the invasion. If you assume something can't happen or
             | cannot be opposed, that's indistinguishable from an
             | invitation for an autocrat.
        
             | dboreham wrote:
             | Yes but presumably other NATO members would counterattack,
             | e.g. the UK has Trident missiles capable of significantly
             | degrading the US. Modulo any kill switch those might
             | contain.
        
             | skissane wrote:
             | > Attempting to annex in any way shape or form is currently
             | nothing more than the musings of an old man, the only way
             | any territorial changes could happen are through peaceful,
             | mutually agreed upon transfer.
             | 
             | A possible scenario: Alberta votes for independence, and
             | then applies to join the US - similar trajectory to how
             | Texas went from Mexico to the US via independence, albeit
             | likely much more peacefully
             | 
             | Is this actually going to happen? Probably not. But
             | personally I think it is more likely than all the other
             | farfetched scenarios some people here seem to be taking
             | seriously
        
         | qball wrote:
         | >For a nation with basically zero chance of invasion of its
         | home soil and an extremely low risk of internal conflict
         | 
         | Clearly the Canadian government doesn't feel the same way. If
         | they tried to conscript they'd quickly find themselves in a
         | civil war (for the same reasons the US would), and one the
         | Canadian capital clearly doesn't believe it'd win given how
         | well it fared defending itself in 2022.
         | 
         | Of course, bureaucrats aren't exactly known for their fighting
         | prowess either. This is mostly a statement that "Toronto/Ottawa
         | doesn't need the rest of the country, it can see to its own
         | defense", and to try and retain/engage the Elbows Up crowd
         | (which, being the only reason the sitting government is in
         | power, is completely understandable).
        
         | hotep99 wrote:
         | They are likely being pressured to meet minimum obligations as
         | part of NATO membership. Canada's military realistically isn't
         | going to be called on for defense of the homeland but as part
         | of a support force for NATO.
        
       | ninalanyon wrote:
       | 24 000 reserves out of a population of 40 million seems like a
       | rather small number.
       | 
       | Norway has 40 000 in the Home Guard (Heimevernet) rapid reaction
       | force of volunteer part time soldiers and a further 20 000
       | reserves. All from a population of about 5.5 million.
        
         | gpm wrote:
         | The difference here is presumably for the last hundred years,
         | ending last November, there was simply no chance of a invasion
         | of Canada. Nukes might fly overhead and end the world as they
         | struck targets on either side, but other than that we were safe
         | and any significant military action we took part in would be
         | overseas and thus not justify calling up a huge number of
         | reservists.
         | 
         | Meanwhile Norway was occupied in WWII, and after that spent the
         | next decades next to the Soviet Union, and then Russia. There's
         | clearly been a long standing risk of actual invasion.
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | Except that there are several invasion risks, especially in
           | the north. Canada maintains bases there (Alert) to protect
           | its north from being taken by the likes of Russia, the USA
           | and even Denmark (they have a longrunning dispute regarding
           | an island near greenland). Canada also does not want the
           | northwest passage to become an international waterway and so
           | must maintain control over vessels in the north.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War
           | 
           | >> The Canadian government issued a declaration in 1986
           | reaffirming Canadian rights to the waters. _The United States
           | refused to recognize the Canadian claim_. In 1988 the
           | governments of Canada and the United States signed an
           | agreement,  "Arctic Cooperation," that resolved the practical
           | issue without solving the sovereignty questions. Under the
           | law of the sea, ships engaged in transit passage are not
           | permitted to engage in research. The agreement states that
           | all U.S. Coast Guard and Navy vessels are engaged in
           | research, and so would require permission from the Government
           | of Canada to pass through
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage
        
             | asdff wrote:
             | outside edmonton and calgary the vast majority of the
             | canadian population is within 100 miles of the US border.
             | now imagine the logistics of a land invasion from northern
             | canada. Shortest distance would be 1600 miles of
             | wilderness. If you went from alert it would be more like
             | 2500 miles of wilderness and several water crossings. All
             | while you are being absolutely pummeled by US air support.
             | It would be a suicide mission that would make the Kokoda
             | Track campaign look like a boy scout trip.
             | 
             | It is such a different situation in europe. Helsinki is 100
             | miles from the russian border with road, highway, and rail
             | connectivity and within reach of most of Russias air power.
        
               | throwway120385 wrote:
               | I think they might legitimately be worried about an
               | invasion from the south.
        
               | paleotrope wrote:
               | They should worry more about the international flights
               | from overseas.
        
             | kps wrote:
             | > Denmark (they have a longrunning dispute regarding an
             | island near greenland)
             | 
             | That was resolved in 2022 by dividing Hans Island. Canada
             | now has a land border with Denmark.
        
           | bonesss wrote:
           | > Nukes might fly overhead
           | 
           | Numerous Canadian sites, military and NORAD, were and surely
           | are on first strike lists from the USSR and later Russia.
           | 
           | The largest established combined bi-national military command
           | in the world involves a fair amount of shared risk.
        
             | hollerith wrote:
             | Agreed. Also, even if Canada were to shut down all NORAD
             | radars and command posts on Canadian territory and to kick
             | out every US soldier and to tear up all agreements with the
             | US, Canadian cities and important Canadian infrastructure
             | within 100 miles of the US border (i.e., _most_ Canadian
             | population and infrastructure) would probably get nuked in
             | a nuclear war just so that the US cannot rely on those
             | resources during the US 's recovery from the attack.
             | 
             | A large nuclear exchange between great powers (and
             | currently there are 3 great powers, the US, China and
             | Russia) would be followed by the use of conventional
             | military forces. E.g., The US would try to capture and hold
             | major ports of the power or powers that attacked it because
             | holding ports is a very effective way of denying the power
             | the ability to deploy its own conventional forces outside
             | its own territory and the ability to rebuild its nuclear
             | stockpile. Military planners in the power or powers that
             | planned the nuclear strike on the US would know that and
             | consequently would realize that it is essential to slow
             | down the US's recovery from the strike as long as possible.
             | 
             | In summary, if the US ever endures a large nuclear strike,
             | it is very likely that Canada gets nuked, too. Canada's
             | kicking out the US military and declaring the US to be its
             | enemy might cause a minor reduction in intensity of the
             | nuclear attack on Canada, but is very unlikely prevent it
             | altogether.
             | 
             | Yes, Switzerland was able to avoid any attacks from the UK,
             | the US or the USSR during WWII despite sharing a border
             | with Germany, but that was probably near thing. Also,
             | Switzerland was very hard for Germany to invade because of
             | how mountainous it is; in contrast, most of the cities and
             | infra in Southern Canada is separated from the US by
             | nothing but plains. Also, Switzerland invests very heavily
             | in its military capacity, e.g., every Swiss male must do
             | military service, e.g., every bridge in Switzerland is
             | engineered to be easy for Swiss forces to blow up.
        
               | palmotea wrote:
               | > A large nuclear exchange between great powers (and
               | currently there are 3 great powers, the US, China and
               | Russia) would be followed by the use of conventional
               | military forces. E.g., The US would try to capture and
               | hold the major ports of the power or powers that attacked
               | it because holding those ports is the most effective way
               | of denying the power the ability to deploy its own
               | conventional forces outside its own territory and the
               | ability to rebuild its nuclear stockpile.
               | 
               | Do you have a source for that? Because that's pretty
               | unbelievable action to take after a full nuclear exchange
               | that leaves every major city and military base in ruins.
               | I'd expect most if not all the US's force-projection
               | power would be gone immediately after a nuclear war.
               | Sure, maybe there'd be aircraft carriers out in the
               | ocean, but with limited ability to resupply, they'd
               | probably lose their effectiveness sooner than later.
        
               | hollerith wrote:
               | The Soviets had no hope of capturing any ports or any
               | territory in the continental US, so their plan focused on
               | the next best thing: namely capturing the part of the
               | European plain they did not control already (namely,
               | Germany, the low countries and maybe the part of France
               | occupied by the Germans in WWII) then hoping that this
               | new political entity consisting of the USSR augmented by
               | Northern Europe could over the next few decades outpace
               | the US in economic capacity, allowing the USSR to build a
               | fleet more powerful than the US fleet. George Friedman
               | has talked more than once about this as being the logical
               | goal of the Soviets if there ever had been a hot war
               | between the USSR and the US.
               | 
               | One Soviet war plan that was made available to Western
               | scholars in the 1990s anticipated this invasion of
               | Northern Europe starting immediately after the Soviets
               | make a large nuclear strike on Western Europe. Note that
               | tanks crew are basically immune to nuclear fallout. Also,
               | fallout is not like Chernobyl: it dissipates very quickly
               | so after 3 weeks soldiers not inside tanks will be able
               | to operate in what were 3 weeks earlier very deadly
               | fallout plumes. (Also, the plumes never cover the entire
               | attacked territory, but only about half of it: its just
               | that it is impossible to predict which half.)
               | 
               | This particular plan avoided any attack on Britain or
               | France (and I presume also the US) to make it less likely
               | that Britain and France will choose to use its nukes on
               | the USSR, but hits West Germany, the low countries and
               | NATO bases in northern Italy really hard.
               | 
               | I've also heard experts other than Friedman say that
               | Soviet planners always believed that a nuclear exchange
               | would be followed by war between conventional forces.
               | 
               | I'm not sure where I got the notion that the US would
               | probably try to capture and hold Russian ports if Russia
               | ever were stupid enough to launch a nuclear attack on the
               | US. I think I heard the assertion made about Chinese
               | ports (I don't know who from) and extrapolated. In
               | particular, the assertion was that if the US every
               | decided that China must be suppressed as much as possible
               | by military means, it would be foolish to try to capture
               | the whole country, so capturing and occupying its ports
               | (which of course the Western powers did in the past)
               | would be the likely goal. I figure the same thing is true
               | of Russia especially since Russia has even less free
               | access to the world ocean than China does.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | The problem with a large military invasion of North
               | America would be its difficulty to disguise. There's a
               | lot of water buffer that prevents border skirmishes from
               | escalating with easy supply routes to keep an invasion
               | running.
        
             | michaelt wrote:
             | I think "Nukes might fly overhead and end the world [...]
             | but other than that we were safe" agrees that Canada would
             | not thrive during a global thermonuclear war.
        
           | palmotea wrote:
           | > The difference here is presumably for the last hundred
           | years, ending last November, there was simply no chance of a
           | invasion of Canada.
           | 
           | The chance of Canada being invaded didn't change at all in
           | November. The amount of hyperbole about Trump has been
           | utterly astounding, and fears of an Canadian invasion are an
           | instance of that.
           | 
           | And my sense is that actually a fair amount of the bad stuff
           | Trump has done (though definitely not all) is a direct result
           | of the overreactions to him [1], so it's probably best not to
           | overreact.
           | 
           | [1] E.g. Democrats fear and loathe him, so they pursued all
           | kinds of legal actions against him while he was out of office
           | to damage and destroy him. They failed, he got re-elected,
           | and now _only in his second term_ , he's corrupted the
           | Justice Department into a club to attack those very same
           | people.
        
             | triceratops wrote:
             | > Democrats fear and loathe him, so they pursued all kinds
             | of legal actions against him while he was out of office
             | 
             | So maybe he should'nt've have broken laws. Not give them
             | anything to pursue.
        
               | palmotea wrote:
               | > So maybe he should'nt've have broken laws. Not give
               | them anything to pursue.
               | 
               | It's not so simple: 1) everybody breaks laws, and 2) in
               | at least one case those laws were _stretched and abused
               | in unusual ways to specifically target him_ (his felony
               | convictions, which unsurprisingly were immediately turned
               | into an electoral attack). I 'm not a Trump fan, but I'm
               | not a Democratic partisan either, and I think that
               | prosecution was really, _really_ gross.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | > laws were stretched in unusual ways to specifically
               | target him
               | 
               | Sure one man's campaign finance violations/embezzlement
               | (I can't recall the details) are another man's
               | politically motivated prosecution. That wasn't the only
               | case against the guy though. It was the only case that
               | concluded. Winning the election saved his skin. He was
               | cooked otherwise.
        
           | wyldberry wrote:
           | "ending last November" - Is the implication that a Trump
           | presidency implies a risk of invasion from the South?
           | 
           | Canada has relied greatly on the United States providing a
           | blanket defense guarantee of the continent. The Canadian
           | military is currently operationally worthless across the
           | board, save the cyber domain. There are many reasons for it
           | that I'm not here to list out. However, that does come with
           | grave consequences geopolitically and the Canadian government
           | has been living in the 1900s.
           | 
           | The USA, via Alaska, provides Canada against Russian
           | provocation on the West Coast[0]. This is similar to the near
           | constant probing of NATO states airspace, especially
           | countries near Ukraine [1][2]
           | 
           | The Canadian Navy is severely underfunded (along with the
           | rest of the Canadian Armed forces)[3] with not enough ships
           | to actively patrol and protect it's waters, especially in the
           | North.
           | 
           | The North passages are incredibly important, and will become
           | more important as trade routes. The entirety of the US
           | wanting to buy Greenland is as a part of having an Atlantic
           | outpost to control those shipping lanes. Those trade lanes
           | can be significantly shorter than routes using Suez or Panama
           | canals.
           | 
           | In addition to the trade routes, the US fears a Russian and
           | Chinese alliance because of the access that grants to the
           | North Atlantic. Point blank: Nato cannot build ships anymore,
           | and the PLAN capacity is staggering. This is already
           | independent of CN and RU intelligence probing of the entirety
           | of the west coast.
           | 
           | The world has changed dramatically, and the only thing that
           | really changed in November is that the USA is no longer
           | pretending it can defend the mainland, defend NATO countries,
           | and police shipping lanes on their own. The USA doesn't have
           | the capacity to replace ships, nor do they have the knowledge
           | anymore to do so.
           | 
           | [0] - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-planes-alaska-us-
           | fighter...
           | 
           | [1]-
           | https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_237721.htm
           | 
           | [2]- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Russian_drone_incursi
           | on_i...
           | 
           | [3] - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-greenland-panama-
           | canal-wh...
        
         | tick_tock_tick wrote:
         | I mean Canada just depends on the USA for nearly all it's
         | defense. The USA isn't going to let anyone invade Canada or
         | Mexico.
        
           | mig39 wrote:
           | I don't know if you've been paying attention, but the head of
           | the USA has threatened on numerous occasions to invade
           | Canada.
        
             | tick_tock_tick wrote:
             | I mean yeah we've famously even had full on invasion war
             | plans drawn up in the past that leaked. Canada isn't going
             | to do anything that changes the USA's ability to steam roll
             | over the country.
        
         | bell-cot wrote:
         | Vs. Finland has reserves of 870 000 from a population of about
         | 5.6 million.
         | 
         | Via the magic of universal male conscription:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Defence_Forces#Conscri...
        
           | scotty79 wrote:
           | Not teaching your son a second language so he can escape the
           | country with draft as soon as he's 18 is evil.
           | 
           | You are obligated to give your child tools to choose his
           | future if your government is trying to deny him that choice.
        
             | kulahan wrote:
             | Did you respond to the wrong comment or is this flying way
             | over my head? I'm not actually sure how you arrived at
             | talking about children needing to learn another language
             | from this article that doesn't discuss language?
        
             | wagwang wrote:
             | No you have a duty and obligation to the society that
             | raised you.
        
               | scotty79 wrote:
               | Your obligations are your choices. Only a slave has
               | obligations without freely chosing them.
        
               | mothballed wrote:
               | How much raising of the typical pleb draftee do you think
               | is done by the politician declaring the war? Society is
               | just a collection of people. Even if there is some
               | original debt from being raised that forms a binding
               | contract with a minor that never consented to it, which I
               | don't take on face, it's hard to imagine how politicians
               | declaring a draft trump the senior shareholders of that
               | contract (the family that did the bulk of the raising).
               | 
               | In any case I would hope we would reject the notion that
               | you can become a slave and made to die for the state
               | because you allegedly owe them for something they did for
               | you before you were old enough to even wittingly object
               | or agree to it.
        
               | qball wrote:
               | The converse is also true, however.
               | 
               | If, for example, society sees fit to deprive me of _my_
               | right to security (for instance, perhaps it deigns to
               | throw me in jail if I defend myself against a home
               | invasion), then society doesn 't get to demand I give my
               | life for _its_ security.
               | 
               | In this way, it is society that has broken the contract
               | with me, releasing me of my obligations to defend it.
               | Most people who claim "duty and obligation to society"
               | conveniently forget this is possible. By accident, I'm
               | sure.
        
               | naIak wrote:
               | I was raised by my family, thank you very much.
        
         | dylan604 wrote:
         | How well would 24000 reserves fare against a smaller but well
         | trained group of regular military units? Aren't they pretty
         | much canon fodder?
         | 
         | I guess it depends on the opposition. The counter is look at
         | the quagmire the US military found itself against insurgent
         | opposition because they were not willing to use the same plays
         | as Russia leveling cities. Israel leveled Gaza with the same
         | mentality.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | This isn't using government employees for non-combat tasks to
       | free up troops. It's more like the WWII Home Guard in the UK.
       | 
       |  _" Federal and provincial employees would be given a one-week
       | training course in how to handle firearms, drive trucks and fly
       | drones...The public servants would be inducted into the
       | Supplementary Reserve, which is currently made up of inactive or
       | retired members of the Canadian Forces who are willing to return
       | to duty if called."_
       | 
       | This sort of thing is usually a desperation measure in wartime.
       | What threat does Canada see? US ICE goon squads crossing the
       | border into Canada? Building up the regular military reserves is
       | more normal. Further down, the article says that's happening.
       | 
       | A better use for a Home Guard of government employees would be
       | civil defense. What to do when power goes out, food distribution
       | breaks down, or gas deliveries cease.
        
         | Driver8 wrote:
         | What you're describing sounds more like what the federal budget
         | calls the Youth Climate Corps:
         | https://www.budget.canada.ca/2025/report-rapport/chap3-en.ht...
        
       | stackedinserter wrote:
       | > Federal and provincial employees would be given a one-week
       | training course in how to handle firearms, drive trucks and fly
       | drones
       | 
       | What is the use of these "professionals"?
       | 
       | I know russians send these substandard soldiers to meat grinder
       | ("infiltration in small groups" tactics). If they're killed with
       | ukrainian FPV drone, it's fine, at least AFU spent a drone. Is it
       | what Canadians are planning to do?
        
         | lukan wrote:
         | It is simply raising the costs for any potential invasion.
         | 
         | When a wannabe imperialist thinks, he can get something easy,
         | he will take it. If he thinks, there will be unknown risks and
         | costs .. he might not.
        
       | cmrdporcupine wrote:
       | Odd how this is on front page of HN but buried way down my feed
       | on (Canadian) Google News and doesn't seem to be front-page news?
       | 
       | Do you have to be a public servant or retired Canadian Forces, or
       | do they take portly middle-aged out of shape software engineers,
       | too? Asking for a friend.
       | 
       | Haven't shot a gun since Bible Camp when I was 12. Could be fun.
        
       | colonwqbang wrote:
       | How much useful combat skills can be taught in only a week? It
       | seems like an extremely low estimate on the training needed to
       | play a useful role in the military.
        
         | notatoad wrote:
         | i don't think they're really expecting people to serve a useful
         | role in the military. it's a "supplemental reserve", meaning a
         | level below ordinary reservists.
         | 
         | it sounds like basically if the country was ever in a situation
         | dire enough that they were calling on ordinary citizens to help
         | with defense, an ordinary citizen with a week's training would
         | be better than one with no training.
         | 
         | or more cynically: it's a way to make a whole bunch of voters
         | feel like they're involved in the military, to make military
         | spending more palatable to voters.
        
           | mcny wrote:
           | Maybe I wouldn't be very useful in combat but maybe I can
           | peel potatoes or mop the floors in case of an invasion. I am
           | thinking it frees up someone who is "combat ready" from
           | kitchen or janitor duty. It helps, right?
        
             | notatoad wrote:
             | except they say the training will include firearms and
             | drone flight.
        
               | imgabe wrote:
               | Everyone in the military should be trained with weapons.
               | If it comes down to it, even the guy who mops the floors
               | is going to need to pick up a rifle if the situation is
               | dire enough. It helps if he held one before at least.
        
             | dmurray wrote:
             | In that case, how does the week's training help at all?
             | 
             | Maybe it's helpful just for you to understand the way the
             | military is organised: if you are conscripted you should
             | report to this base, you'll sleep here, your commanding
             | officer will be someone from this branch of the armed
             | forces, you'll be in a group of X people sharing Y shifts,
             | etc.
        
         | mrguyorama wrote:
         | Every combat soldier requires like 10 support soldiers doing
         | things like logistics. Millions of people during WW2 did
         | nothing but drive trucks.
         | 
         | A lot of military burst capacity is about freeing up soldiers
         | who went through all the training and basic and specialization,
         | but are stuck driving that truck.
         | 
         | The guys and gals who fire bullets are just the sharp point of
         | the spear and all that.
         | 
         | It's also why Russia ballooned their "National Guard" forces
         | even though they cannot be deployed outside Russia; They free
         | up soldiers who can.
         | 
         | One of the most important things for a government in an actual
         | "Oh shit real war" situation that requires significant
         | mobilization is a simple census of "Who has the capability to
         | do what menial job?"
        
         | Retric wrote:
         | Useful for what role? It's not obvious if someone has near
         | significant or near zero training when they are acting as a
         | stationary guard at a checkpoint etc. Which enables trained
         | troops to preform more useful roles.
         | 
         | They are significantly less likely to do the correct thing if
         | attacked, but a war isn't going to just be over in 24 hours
         | either so they can be trained up on the job.
        
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