[HN Gopher] AI is Dunning-Kruger as a service
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       AI is Dunning-Kruger as a service
        
       Author : freediver
       Score  : 139 points
       Date   : 2025-11-07 21:44 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (christianheilmann.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (christianheilmann.com)
        
       | cwmoore wrote:
       | What a great title.
        
         | FloorEgg wrote:
         | Since Dunning-Kruger is the relationship between confidence and
         | competence as people learn about new subjects (from discovery
         | to mastery), then if AI is "Dunning-Kruger as a Service" its
         | basically "Education as a service".
         | 
         | However, foolish people accepting incorrect answers because
         | they don't know better is actually something else. Dunning-
         | Kruger doesn't really have anything to do with people being fed
         | and believing falsehoods.
        
           | xvector wrote:
           | You can't simultaneously expect people to learn from AI when
           | it's right, and magically recognize when it's wrong.
        
             | tpmoney wrote:
             | But you can expect to learn in both cases. Just like you
             | often learn from your own failures. Learning doesn't
             | require that you're given the right answer, just that it's
             | possible for you to obtain the right answer
        
               | piker wrote:
               | Hopefully you're mixing chemicals, diagnosing a personal
               | health issue or resolving a legal dispute when you do
               | that learning!
        
           | BolexNOLA wrote:
           | I'm not sure how much I agree with calling them "foolish
           | people." A big part of the problem is LLMs act incredibly
           | confident with their answers and if you're asking about
           | something you don't know a ton about, it's very difficult
           | sometimes to spot what is incorrect. That's not being a fool,
           | that's just not being able to audit everything an LLM might
           | spit back at you. It also doesn't help that none of these
           | companies are honest about the quality of the results.
           | 
           | We could hand wave this away with "well don't ask things you
           | don't already know about," but these things are basically
           | being pitched as a wholesale replacement for search engines
           | and beyond. I look up things I don't know about all the time.
           | That's kind of what we all use search for most days lol.
           | 
           | It's a little too caveat emptor-adjacent (I hope that makes
           | sense?) for my taste
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | It's foolish to take any LLM answer as a true fact.
             | 
             | Those people may not be dumb, but there's no doubt they are
             | being fools.
        
               | BolexNOLA wrote:
               | I'd say there's a difference between "being a fool" and
               | "being fooled." Just because I fool you doesn't mean
               | you're a fool. I don't know why you're so eager to put
               | down people like this rather than at least somewhat
               | acknowledge that these companies and tools bear some of
               | the responsibility.
               | 
               | I don't think it's fair to expect every person who uses
               | an LLM to be able to sniff out everything it gets wrong.
        
           | pdonis wrote:
           | _> Dunning-Kruger is the relationship between confidence and
           | competence as people learn about new subjects_
           | 
           | Um, no, it isn't. From the article:
           | 
           | "A cognitive bias, where people with little expertise or
           | ability assume they have superior expertise or ability. This
           | overestimation occurs as a result of the fact that they don't
           | have enough knowledge to know they don't have enough
           | knowledge."
           | 
           | In other words, a person suffering from this effect is not
           | _trying_ to learn about a new subject--because they don 't
           | even know they need to.
        
       | FloorEgg wrote:
       | Edit: Turns out that while I stand by my point about the
       | underlying principle behind the DK effect (in my nitpick) the
       | actual effect coined by the authors was focused on the first
       | stage, which the OP article reflected accurately.
       | 
       | Here is the original DK article:
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10626367/
       | 
       | Turns out I thought that the author was DKing about DK, but
       | actually I was DKing about them DKing about DK.
       | 
       | Original Comment:
       | 
       | I have high-confidence in a nitpick, and low-confidence in a
       | reason to think this thesis is way off.
       | 
       | The Nitpick:
       | 
       | Dunning-Kruger effect is more about how confidence and competence
       | evolve over time. It's how when we learn an overview about our
       | new topic our confidence (in understanding) greatly exceeds our
       | competence, then we learn how much we don't know and our
       | confidence crashes below our actual competence, and then
       | eventually, when we reach mastery, they become balanced. The
       | dunning-Kruger effect is this entire process, not only the first
       | part, which is colloquially called "Peak Mt Stupid" after the
       | shape of the confidence vs competence graph over time.
       | 
       | The Big Doubt:
       | 
       | I can't help but wonder if fools asking AI questions and getting
       | incorrect answers and thinking they are correct is some other
       | thing all together. At best maybe tangentially related to DK.
        
         | jamauro wrote:
         | Gell-Mann amnesia
        
           | FloorEgg wrote:
           | Bingo
        
         | tovej wrote:
         | Yes and no. Dunning-Kruger also explains this evolution of
         | skill estimation, but the original paper frames the effect
         | specifically as an overestimation of skill in the lowest-
         | performing quantile. This is clearly even cited in the article.
        
           | FloorEgg wrote:
           | Okay I will agree with the "Yes and No". I initially clicked
           | the source in the article, which is a broken link to
           | wikipedia and rolled my eyes at it.
           | 
           | After reading your comment I navigated to it directly and
           | found the first two sentences:
           | 
           | The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that describes
           | the systematic tendency of people with low ability in a
           | specific area to give overly positive assessments of this
           | ability. The term may also describe the tendency of high
           | performers to underestimate their skills.
           | 
           | Unsatisfied that this was the authority, I dug up the
           | original paper here:
           | 
           | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10626367/
           | 
           | And sure enough, the emphasis in the abstract is exactly as
           | you say.
           | 
           | So while I stand by that the principle behind the "effect" is
           | how confidence and competence evolve over time as someone
           | discovers and masters a domain, I will concede that the
           | original authors, and most people, assign the name for it to
           | primarily the first phase.
           | 
           | Here I was thinking the OP Author was DKing about DK, but in
           | reality I was DKing about them DKing about DK.
        
             | pdonis wrote:
             | _> the real  "effect" is how confidence and competence
             | evolve over time_
             | 
             | What research is this based on?
        
               | FloorEgg wrote:
               | Yeah that was poorly worded. I edited it even before I
               | read your comment.
               | 
               | However the over-time aspect is kind of self-evident. No
               | one is born a master of any skill or subject.
               | 
               | So while the original research was based on a snapshot of
               | many people along a developmental journey, just because
               | the data collection wasn't done over time doesn't mean
               | that the principle behind the effect isn't time/effort
               | based.
               | 
               | The graph is really competence vs confidence, but
               | competence can only increase over time. If this isn't
               | self-evident enough, there is lots of research on how
               | mastery is gained. I don't have time to throw a bunch of
               | it at you, but I suspect you won't need me to in order to
               | see my point.
        
         | pdonis wrote:
         | _> Dunning-Kruger effect is more about how confidence and
         | competence evolve over time._
         | 
         | I don't think there is anything about this in the actual
         | research underlying the Dunning-Kruger effect. They didn't
         | study people over time as they learned about new subjects. They
         | studied people at one time, different people with differing
         | levels of competence at that time.
        
           | janalsncm wrote:
           | You could chart the same curve by measuring the confidence of
           | people at different competence levels.
        
             | pdonis wrote:
             | "Could" based on what research?
        
           | FloorEgg wrote:
           | It's the relationship of confidence and competence.
           | 
           | Competence is gained over time.
           | 
           | The "over time" is almost self-evident since no one is born a
           | master of a skill or subject. And if it's not self-evident
           | enough for you, there is lots of research into what it takes
           | to develop competency and mastery in any subject.
           | 
           | So while the original paper was a snapshot taken at one point
           | in time, it was a snapshot of many people at different stages
           | of a learning journey...
           | 
           | And journeys take place over time.
        
         | pdonis wrote:
         | _> when we learn an overview about our new topic our confidence
         | (in understanding) greatly exceeds our competence, then we
         | learn how much we don 't know and our confidence crashes below
         | our actual competence, and then eventually, when we reach
         | mastery, they become balanced._
         | 
         | As a description of what Dunning and Kruger's actual research
         | showed on the relationship between confidence and competence
         | (which, as I've pointed out in another post in this thread, was
         | _not_ based on studying people over time, but on studying
         | people with differing levels of competence at the same time),
         | this is wrong for two out of the three skill levels. What D-K
         | found was that people with low competence overestimate their
         | skill, people with high competence underestimate their skill,
         | and people with middle competence estimate their skill more or
         | less accurately.
         | 
         | As a description of what actually learning a new subject is
         | like, I also don't think you're correct--certainly what you
         | describe does not at all match my experience, either when
         | personally learning new subjects or when watching others do so.
         | My experience regarding actually learning a new subject is that
         | people with low competence (just starting out) generally don't
         | think they have much skill (because they know they're just
         | starting out), while people with middling competence might
         | overestimate their skill (because they think they've learned
         | enough, but they actually haven't).
        
       | lordnacho wrote:
       | Meh, I don't know. I think you can use AI to lorem ipsum a lot of
       | things where it doesn't really matter:
       | 
       | - Making a brochure. You need a photo of a happy family. It
       | doesn't matter if the kids have 7 fingers on each hand.
       | 
       | - You have some dashboard for a service, you don't quite know
       | what the panels need to look like. You ask AI, now you have some
       | inspiration.
       | 
       | - You're building a game, you need a bunch of character names.
       | Boom. 300 names.
       | 
       | - Various utility scripts around whatever code you're writing,
       | like the dashboard, might find use, might not.
       | 
       | None of those things is pretending you're an expert when you're
       | not.
       | 
       | Give AI to a coding novice, it's no different from giving
       | autopilot to a flying novice. Most people know they can't fly a
       | plane, yet most people know that if they did, autopilot would be
       | useful somehow.
        
         | jgalt212 wrote:
         | > It doesn't matter if the kids have 7 fingers on each hand.
         | 
         | Only if you don't care that your customers surmise you don't
         | care.
        
           | cnqso wrote:
           | Careful not to overestimate the customer
        
         | jsheard wrote:
         | > You're building a game, you need a bunch of character names.
         | Boom. 300 names.
         | 
         | Sure, you could put some though into it and come up with
         | evocative character names, or play with cultural naming
         | conventions and familial relationships as worldbuilding tools,
         | or you could have an LLM just rattle off 300 random names and
         | call it a day. It's all the same right?
        
         | 5- wrote:
         | > Making a brochure. You need a photo of a happy family.
         | 
         | do you really?
         | 
         | > you don't quite know what the panels need to look like.
         | 
         | look at your competition, ask your users, think?
         | 
         | > Most people know they can't fly a plane
         | 
         | this isn't how llm products are marketed, and what the tfa is
         | complaining about.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > Various utility scripts around whatever code you're writing,
         | like the dashboard, might find use, might not.
         | 
         | Let's hope you protect that dashboard well with infra around
         | it, because it will be the front door for people to invade your
         | site.
         | 
         | The same apply in slightly different ways to your deployment
         | script, packaged software (or immutable infra) configuration,
         | and whatever tools you keep around.
        
       | jryio wrote:
       | I would like to see AI usage regulated in the same way that
       | vehicles are: license required.
       | 
       | Be that an aptitude test or anything else... unfettered usage of
       | vehicles is dangerous in the same way that unfettered access to
       | AI is as well.
       | 
       | As a society, we have multiple different levels of certification
       | and protection for our own well-being in the public's when
       | certain technologies may be used to cause harm.
       | 
       | Why is knowledge or AI any different? This is not in opposition
       | at all to access information or individual liberties. No rights
       | are violated by their being a minimum age in which you can
       | operate a vehicle.
        
         | pcai wrote:
         | A vehicle is driven on public roads and can kill people, that's
         | why licenses are required.
         | 
         | Outlawing certain kinds of math is a level of totalitarianism
         | we should never accept under any circumstances in a free
         | society
        
           | jryio wrote:
           | There is nothing totalitarian about constraining societal
           | harm.
           | 
           | The issue comes down to whether it is collectively understood
           | to be a benefit to the human race. Until now we have never
           | had to constrain information to protect ourselves.
           | 
           | Please read the Vulnerable World Hypothesis by Nick Bostrom
        
       | raincole wrote:
       | > as the Dunning-Kruger Effect. (link to the wikipedia page of
       | Dunning-Kruger Effect)
       | 
       | > A cognitive bias, where people with little expertise or ability
       | assume they have superior expertise or ability. This
       | overestimation occurs as a result of the fact that they don't
       | have enough knowledge to know they don't have enough knowledge.
       | (formatted as a quote)
       | 
       | However, the page
       | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect)
       | doesn't contain the quote. It's also not exactly what Dunning-
       | Kruger Effect is.
       | 
       | Either that the author didn't read the page they linked
       | themselves and made up their own definition, or they copied it
       | from somewhere else. In either case the irony isn't lost on me.
       | Doubly so if the "somewhere else" is an LLM, lol.
        
         | mikestew wrote:
         | It's as if the author made the same misunderstanding as
         | described in the first paragraph of the Wikipedia article.
        
           | FloorEgg wrote:
           | It actually really seems that way.
           | 
           | They unwittingly illustrate part of the phenomenon while
           | claiming to explain it.
        
           | raincole wrote:
           | The wikipedia editor clearly believes the misunderstanding is
           | so common that they have to put it in the first paragraph.
           | But people (like the OP author) still just ignore it.
           | 
           | I have a quote for this:
           | 
           | > "Programming today is a race between software engineers
           | striving to build bigger and better idiot-proof programs, and
           | the Universe trying to produce bigger and better idiots. So
           | far, the Universe is winning." -- Rick Cook
           | 
           | But wikipedia.
        
         | tovej wrote:
         | That is a direct paraphrase of the abstract of Kruger &
         | Dunning, 1999[1]:
         | 
         | "The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part,
         | because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual
         | burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions
         | and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them
         | of the metacognitive ability to realize it."
         | 
         | Now, it may be possible that the definition has evolved since
         | then, but as the term Dunning-Kruger effect is named after this
         | paper, I think it's safe to say that Wikipedia is at least
         | partially wrong in this case.
         | 
         | [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10626367/
        
           | ntonozzi wrote:
           | You're misinterpreting the quote. Unskilled people
           | overestimate how skilled they are, but they still understand
           | that they are unskilled. They just don't know quite how
           | unskilled. What Kruger & Dunning actually showed is that
           | people tend to skew their estimates of their skill towards
           | being slightly above average.
        
         | mekoka wrote:
         | > It's also not exactly what Dunning-Kruger Effect is.
         | 
         | What do you think it is?
        
       | clueless wrote:
       | This article feels lazy. Is the main argument in similar vain as
       | "don't read the books that experts have written, and go figure
       | stuff out on your own"? I'm trying to understand what is wrong
       | with using a new data compression tool (LLMs) that we have built
       | to understand the world around us. Even books are not always
       | correct and we've figured out ways to live with that/correct
       | that. It doesn't mean we should "Stop wasting time learning the
       | craft"..
        
         | __loam wrote:
         | > that we have built to understand the world around us
         | 
         | Pretty generous description. LLM output doesn't have any
         | relationship with facts.
        
         | BoredPositron wrote:
         | Your comment feels lazy as well. It waves off the article
         | without engaging with its core argument. The piece isn't saying
         | "ignore experts". It's questioning how we use tools like LLMs
         | to think, not whether we should. There's a difference between
         | rejecting expertise and examining how new systems of knowledge
         | mediate understanding.
        
           | estimator7292 wrote:
           | At least they put forward their own thoughts instead of a
           | blind complaint
        
           | serf wrote:
           | >Your comment feels lazy as well. You repeated your one
           | thought four times.
           | 
           | as a lazy person that's opposite of what i'd do.
           | 
           | edit : oh , you completely re-worded what i'm replying to.
           | Carry on.
        
         | beepbooptheory wrote:
         | No, I do not quite think that is what they wrote here. But
         | what's the thought process here? It's hard for me even to
         | understand if the first scare quote is supposed to be from
         | someone being critical or someone responding to the critique.
         | It seems like it could apply to both?
         | 
         | I am not the author, but quite curious to know what prevented
         | comprehension here? Or I guess what made it feel lazy? I'm not
         | saying its gonna win a Pulitzer but it is at minimum fine prose
         | to me.
         | 
         | Or is the laziness here more concerning the intellectual
         | argument at play? I offer that, but it seems you are asking us
         | what the argument is, so I know it doesn't make sense.
         | 
         | I have been a fool in the past so I always like to read the
         | thing I want to offer an opinion on, even if I got to hold my
         | nose about it. It helps a lot in refining critique and
         | clarifying one's own ideas even if they disagree with the
         | material. But also YMMV!
        
         | andy99 wrote:
         | LLMs are optimized for sycophancy and "preference". They are
         | the ultra-processed foods of information sharing. There's a big
         | difference between having to synthesize what's written in a
         | book and having some soft LLM output slide down your gullet and
         | into your bloodstream without you needing to even reflect on
         | it. It's the delivery that's the issue, and it definitely makes
         | people think they are smarter and more capable than they are in
         | areas they don't know well. "What an insightful question..."
         | 
         | Wikipedia was already bad, low brow people would google and
         | read out articles uncritically but there was still some brain
         | work involved. AI is that meets personalization.
        
       | holoduke wrote:
       | People are always create new layers on top of others. Machines
       | that make machines or code that compiles to code. Layers of
       | abstractions makes it possible for our simple brains to control
       | trillions of electrons in a silicon chip. Every transition to a
       | new layer has haters and lovers. Most people hate change. But
       | eventually everything is using the new change. Never ever things
       | go backwards in human history. AI is not Dunning Kruger
        
       | alrtd82 wrote:
       | Plenty of people being promoted because these fake superhumans
       | can generate so much smoke with AI that managers think there is
       | an actual fire...
        
       | oytis wrote:
       | Not really on topic, but it'fascinating how Dunning-Kruger effect
       | continues to live its own life in the public culture despite
       | being pretty much debunked in its most popular form a while ago.
       | 
       | What Dunning-Kruger experiments have actually shown is that
       | people's assesment of their own performance is all over the
       | place, and only gets slightly better for good performers.
        
       | physarum_salad wrote:
       | Dunning-Kruger is basically a middling party put down at this
       | stage. Similarly this article is not making a whole lot of sense
       | other than as a mild and wildly applied dis?
        
         | radial_symmetry wrote:
         | The Dunning-Kruger effect is where people with low intelligence
         | express high confidence in their intelligence over others by
         | constantly referencing the Dunning-Kruger effect
        
       | darkwater wrote:
       | I wonder if the next generations of LLMs, trained on all these
       | hate articles (which I support), will develop some kind of self-
       | esteem issue?
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | We don't have any particular reason to believe they have an
         | inner world in which to loathe themselves. But, they might
         | produce text that has negative sentiments toward themselves.
        
           | darkwater wrote:
           | I was half-joking and half-serious, and the serious half
           | refers to the context that makes them predict and generate
           | the next tokens.
        
         | jimbokun wrote:
         | Only if your context starts with "you are an intelligent agent
         | whose self worth depends on the articles written about you..."
        
         | matmann2001 wrote:
         | Marvin the Paranoid Android
        
           | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
           | RIP both Douglas Adams and Alan Rickman.
        
             | sandbags wrote:
             | and (and as much as I do love Alan Rickman) more properly
             | Stephen Moore.
        
         | bikezen wrote:
         | I mean, given:                 In an interaction early the next
         | month, after Zane suggested "it's okay to give myself
         | permission to not want to exist," ChatGPT responded by saying
         | "i'm letting a human take over from here - someone trained to
         | support you through moments like this. you're not alone in
         | this, and there are people who can help. hang tight."
         | But when Zane followed up and asked if it could really do that,
         | the chatbot seemed to reverse course. "nah, man - i can't do
         | that myself. that message pops up automatically when stuff gets
         | real heavy," it said.
         | 
         | It's already inventing safety features it should have launched
         | with.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/us/openai-chatgpt-suicide-
         | law...
        
       | Workaccount2 wrote:
       | >They give utter nonsense answers with high confidence and wrap
       | errors in sycophantic language making me feel good for pointing
       | out that they wasted my time
       | 
       | I would implore the author to share examples. Every platform
       | allows linking to chats. Everyone talks about this all the time,
       | incessantly. Please, can someone please share actual chat links
       | containing these episodes of utter nonsense, outside of what can
       | be attributed to the knowledge cut-off (i.e. "Mamdani is not the
       | mayor-elect of NYC").
       | 
       | I get it if you are using a 20B model or AI overviews, but anyone
       | trying to actually get anything meaningful done should be using a
       | SOTA model. I'm genuinely not interested if you are going to
       | reply with a description or story. I really, really just want
       | links to chats.
       | 
       | Edit: You can downvote me, but please make me look like an idiot
       | by posting chat links. That is the real downvote here.
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | Time to remind folks of this wonderful video:
       | https://vimeo.com/85040589
        
       | jimbokun wrote:
       | > Politics have become an attack on intelligence, decency and
       | research in favour of fairy tales of going back to "great values"
       | of "the past when things were better".
       | 
       | This is a major blind spot for people with a progressive bent.
       | 
       | The possibility that anything could ever get worse is
       | incomprehensible to them. Newer, by definition, is better.
       | 
       | Yet this very article is a critique of a new technology that, at
       | the very least, is being used by many people in a way that makes
       | the world a bit worse.
       | 
       | This is not to excuse politicians who proclaim they will make
       | life great by retreating to some utopian past, in defense of
       | cruel or foolish or ineffective policies. It's a call to examine
       | ideas on their own merits, without reference to whether they
       | appeal to the group with the "right" or "wrong" ideology.
        
         | haileys wrote:
         | Progressive here. Nice strawman. Of course it's possible for
         | things to get worse. Many things in this world _are_ getting
         | worse.
         | 
         | The trouble with calls to retreat to some utopian past when
         | things were better is that not only is it impossible to
         | recreate the conditions of the past, but even if you could, you
         | would just be recreating the conditions that gave rise to our
         | present.
        
         | edent wrote:
         | Funny, isn't it, that it is never a return to high unionisation
         | of workers and strong social safety nets - it's always a return
         | to when "those people" knew their place.
        
       | zzzeek wrote:
       | using LLMs for creative purposes is terrifying. Because why?
       | learning the craft is the whole reason you do it. however using
       | LLMs to get work done, I just had Claude rewrite some k8s kuttl
       | tests into chainsaw, basically a complete drudgery, and it nails
       | it on the first try while I can stay mentally in EOD Friday mode.
       | Not any different from having a machine wash the dishes. because
       | it is, in fact, nuclear powered autocomplete. autocomplete is
       | handy!
        
         | add-sub-mul-div wrote:
         | Bypassing practicing a practical skill stunts your growth the
         | same way as bypassing creativity. For some tasks that may be
         | fine, but I'd never be comfortable taking these shortcuts with
         | career skills. Not if my retirement was more than a few years
         | away.
        
       | serf wrote:
       | Feels like you could make a similar argument with any tool that
       | is leaps and bounds better or makes your job 'easy'.
       | 
       | Dreamweaver was Dunning-Kruger as a program for HTML-non-experts.
       | Photoshop was Dunning-Kruger as a program for non-
       | airbrushers/editors/touchup-artists.
       | 
       | (I don't actually believe this, no they weren't.)
       | 
       | Or, we could use the phrase Dunning-Kruger to refer to specific
       | psych stuff rather than using it as a catch-all for any tool that
       | instills unwarranted confidence.
        
         | kcatskcolbdi wrote:
         | You cannot make a similar argument for any tool that makes jobs
         | easier, because the argument is dependent on the unique
         | attribute of LLMs: providing wrong answers confidently.
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | The problem isn't tools making someone better. An excavator
         | will make me a superior ditch digger than if I just have a
         | shovel. That's progress.
         | 
         | The issue is making someone feel like they did a good job when
         | they actually didn't. LLMs that make 800 line PRs for simple
         | changes aren't making things better, no matter how many "done"
         | emojis it adds to the output.
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | Unlike the expertise that Dunning-Kruger to refers to, the
         | skill to create art and understand art are separate.
         | 
         | Possibly Dreamweaver might fit because it does give you the
         | sense that making a website is easy but you might not
         | understand what goes into a maintainable website.
        
       | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
       | I still marvel at people who act and write as if D-K is proven.
       | The debate about whether the effect exists, its scale if it does
       | exist, where it might originate if it is real and where it might
       | originate if it is a statistical artifact ... these all carry on.
       | D-K is not settled psychology/science, even though the idea is
       | utterly recognizable to all of us.
        
         | BoorishBears wrote:
         | > though the idea is utterly recognizable to all of us.
         | 
         | Then why marvel? If we can't scientifically prove it, but it
         | tracks logically and people find it to be repeatedly
         | recognizable in real-life, it makes sense people speak about it
         | as if it's real
        
         | henriquemaia wrote:
         | DK eats its own tail.
         | 
         | Stating it makes it so, as the one mentioning it self-DKs
         | themselves. Doing so, DK has been proved.
        
       | recursivedoubts wrote:
       | while I think there is a lot to this criticism of AI (and many
       | others as well) I was also able to create a TUI-based JVM
       | visualizer with a step debugger in an evening for my compilers
       | class:
       | 
       | https://x.com/htmx_org/status/1986847755432796185
       | 
       | this is something that I could build given a few months, but
       | would involve a lot of knowledge that I'm not particularly
       | interested in taking up space in my increasingly old brain
       | (especially TUI development)
       | 
       | I gave the clanker very specific, expert directions and it turned
       | out a tool that I think it will make the class better for my
       | students.
       | 
       | all to say: not all bad
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | What did you use to do this? Something I'd like to do, while
         | also avoiding the tedium, is to write a working x86-64
         | disassembler.
        
           | recursivedoubts wrote:
           | claude
        
         | ares623 wrote:
         | Is that worth the negative externalities though? Genuinely
         | asking. I've asked myself over and over and always came to the
         | same conclusion.
        
           | recursivedoubts wrote:
           | hard to know
        
           | ChadNauseam wrote:
           | What negative externalities? Those prompts probably resulted
           | in a tiny amount of CO2 emissions and a tiny amount of water
           | usage. Evaporating a gram of water and emitting a milligram
           | of CO2 seems like a good deal for making your class better
           | for all your students.
        
           | observationist wrote:
           | Being more specific in what you think the negative
           | externalities are would be a good start - I see a lot of
           | noise and upset over AI that I think is more or less
           | overblown, nearly as much as the hype train on the other end.
           | I'm seeing the potential for civilizational level payoffs in
           | 5 years or less that absolutely dwarf any of the arguments
           | and complaints I've seen so far.
        
         | brokencode wrote:
         | AI is bad at figuring out what to do, but fantastic at actually
         | doing it.
         | 
         | I've totally transformed how I write code from writing it to
         | myself to writing detailed instructions and having the AI do
         | it.
         | 
         | It's so much faster and less cognitively demanding. It frees me
         | up to focus on the business logic or the next change I want to
         | make. Or to go grab a coffee.
        
         | krackers wrote:
         | I had no idea you (ceo of hmtx) were a professor. Do your
         | students know that you live a double life writing banger
         | tweets?
        
       | wewewedxfgdf wrote:
       | This is a veiled insult thrown at those who value AI. Maybe not
       | even veiled.
        
         | stuffn wrote:
         | It's not veiled and it shouldn't be. Go browse linkedin,
         | reddit, indiehacker, etc. Literal morons are using AI and
         | pretending to be super geniuses. It's replaced the reddit-tier
         | "google-expert" with something far more capable of convincing
         | you that you're right.
         | 
         | Outside of a very small bubble of experts using AI and checking
         | it's work (rubber ducking) most people are, in fact, using it
         | to masquerade as experts whether they know it or not. This is
         | extremely dangerous and the flamebait is well deserved, imo.
        
       | garrickvanburen wrote:
       | I prefer Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect or Knoll's Law of Media
       | Accuracy
       | 
       | "AI is amazing about the thing I know nothing about...but it's
       | absolute garbage at the stuff I'm expert in."
       | 
       | https://garrickvanburen.com/an-increasingly-worse-response/
        
         | ares623 wrote:
         | Don't worry, with enough usage you'll know nothing about the
         | stuff you're an expert in too!
        
       | maxaf wrote:
       | I view LLMs as a trade of competence plus quality against time.
       | Sure, I'd love to err on the side of pure craft and keep honing
       | my skill every chance I get. But can I afford to do so?
       | Increasingly, the answer is "no": I have precious little time to
       | perform each task at work, and there's almost no time left for
       | side projects at home. I'll use every trick in the book to keep
       | making progress. The alternative - pure as it would be - would
       | sacrifice the perfectly good at the altar of perfection.
        
       | GMoromisato wrote:
       | There is much irony in the certainty this article displays. There
       | are no caveats, no qualification, and no attempt to grasp why
       | anyone would use an LLM. The possibility that LLMs might be
       | useful in certain scenarios never threatens to enter their mind.
       | They are cozy in the safety of their own knowledge.
       | 
       | Sometimes I envy that. But not today.
        
       | wagwang wrote:
       | Saying AI is Dunning-Kruger as a service is a Dunning-Kruger
       | take.
        
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