[HN Gopher] Apple reports fourth quarter results
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Apple reports fourth quarter results
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 106 points
       Date   : 2025-10-30 20:34 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.apple.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.apple.com)
        
       | lapcat wrote:
       | This stuck out like a sore thumb to me:
       | 
       | Q4 2024: Income before provision for income taxes $29.610
       | billion, Provision for income taxes $14.874 billion
       | 
       | Q4 2025: Income before provision for income taxes $32.804
       | billion, Provision for income taxes $5.338 billion
       | 
       | [EDIT:] The 2024 taxes were actually an aberration.
       | 
       | "the one-time charge recognized during the fourth quarter of 2024
       | related to the impact of the reversal of the European General
       | Court's State Aid decision"
       | https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/10/apple-reports-fourth-...
        
         | nerdponx wrote:
         | Enough to pay for everything DOGE and the Trump admin cut in
         | 2025, assuming a big chunk of that is US taxes.
        
           | aauchter wrote:
           | Effective US tax rate is higher in 2025. The 2024 tax number
           | was inflated due to a one time payment relating to Ireland
           | which actually dates back to 2016.
        
         | nomel wrote:
         | Are different sources of income taxed differently? Could it
         | partly be from some change in income sources? Seems Services is
         | more significant this quarter.
        
           | Psillisp wrote:
           | Yes Tax Avoidance strategies are inversely correlated to
           | enforcement efforts.
           | 
           | What could have possibly changed...
        
           | jdminhbg wrote:
           | No, the 2024 number is goosed by paying a big back tax bill
           | after a court decision in the EU.
        
         | aauchter wrote:
         | Their 2025 US taxes are actually higher. In Q4 2024 "Apple paid
         | a one-time income tax charge of $10.2 billion in order to
         | resolve the tax issue with Ireland, which dates to 2016."
         | 
         | https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-profit-drops-36-tech-20...
        
         | curiouscats wrote:
         | Actually it was a huge tax addition in 2024 (from Europe over
         | dispute about how Ireland had taxed Apple for many years). In
         | 2024 Apple added 14.4 billion in additional taxes accrued over
         | many years.
        
         | FredPret wrote:
         | Corporate income tax is one of those ideas that are immensely
         | popular politically ("someone who is not me will pay billions
         | to benefit me? yay!") but not supported by economic theory or
         | real economic outcomes. Rent control / other price controls is
         | another one ("No more rent increases for me, yay!").
         | 
         | Personal income taxes are a better choice according to [0] and
         | that makes sense if you think about it. Let companies go wild
         | creating wealth; eventually the company matures, growth slows,
         | and instead of reinvesting, the money mostly gets paid out to
         | employees and owners as salaries, dividends, or stock buybacks.
         | That's the point where it's most efficient to tax it.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.economicsobservatory.com/which-taxes-are-best-
         | an...
         | 
         | [1] https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/primers/primer-not-all-
         | taxe...
        
           | aauchter wrote:
           | Correct. Corporate income tax is really a tax on shareholders
           | (alternative to paying tax is paying shareholders a
           | dividend). The corporate tax rate hits all owners regardless
           | of income/wealth. That includes pension funds, 401ks, small
           | investors, etc. Proponents of progressive taxes should be
           | against corporate tax and in favor of income tax, property
           | tax, etc.
        
             | FredPret wrote:
             | It also takes money away from the corporation, when they
             | should be doing one of these:
             | 
             | - spend their profits to try and grow, but fail; thus
             | spreading their capital into the rest of the economy
             | 
             | - spend their profits to try and grow, and succeed; not
             | only spreading capital but creating new wealth that will
             | eventually work its way around to the shareholders
             | 
             | - return it to shareholders, where it gets taxed
        
               | what wrote:
               | Isn't that how it already works? They can spend all of
               | their profits or pay taxes on profit and sit on the rest?
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | Depends on what it gets spent on - capital purchases dont
               | reduce net income. You _can_ write it off, but there are
               | rules limiting how much.
               | 
               | So you could have a situation where you have $1m in
               | profit, and you want to buy a $1m machine, but the
               | machine goes on your balance sheet and not your income
               | statement, so your books still show $1m in profit, even
               | though you now have no cash. And now you still have to
               | pay tax on the $1m.
               | 
               | Now, in the next year, the rules allow you to write off
               | say $200k of that machine, reducing your profit by that
               | much. Eventually, you get to write off much / all of the
               | machine.
               | 
               | But cash is king, and on a cash basis, the tax man is
               | doing very much better than the business in this
               | scenario.
               | 
               | Better to dispense with all the accounting intrigues, tax
               | corporations at 0%, and just tax dividends, buybacks, and
               | salaries.
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | Earned income tax makes no sense, it targets the young and
           | hard working, and work should be maximally rewarded. Land
           | value tax is what makes sense, targeting rent seekers and the
           | wealthy. Also consumption taxes, if one is concerned about
           | things like the environment or substance abuse.
           | 
           | Land value tax is a consumption tax too, since defending and
           | servicing and routing around one's occupied surface area of
           | the earth is very costly for the rest of society.
        
       | haunter wrote:
       | Kind of telling that
       | 
       | 1, the iPhone outsells every other category by 5-7x ratio, and
       | the Mac (which includes everything from Macbooks to Mac Minis to
       | iMacs) barely sells more than the iPad.
       | 
       | 2, Services (iCloud, apps, music, TV shows etc.) now bigger than
       | every other category, except the iPhone, combined
       | 
       | Basically 76% of the sales are iPhones and Services
       | 
       | (millions)
       | 
       | iPhone $209,586
       | 
       | Mac $33,708
       | 
       | iPad $28,023
       | 
       | Wearables, Home and Accessories $35,686
       | 
       | Services $109,158
       | 
       | Total $416,161
       | 
       | Next 5 years or so (or even less) both the iPad and the
       | Wearables, Home and Accessories category will overtake the sales
       | of Macs.
        
         | lapcat wrote:
         | These are the wrong numbers. You posted the 2024 numbers, not
         | the 2025 numbers.
         | 
         | 2025: iPhone $209.586 billion, Mac $33.708 billion, iPad
         | $28.023 billion, Wearables, Home and Accessories $35.686
         | billion, Services $109.158 billion, Total $416.161 billion
        
           | haunter wrote:
           | Yeah you are right, my bad! Fixed
        
             | lapcat wrote:
             | I think your conclusion is also wrong. iPad sales are flat,
             | and wearables are actually declining:
             | 
             | (Wearables, home, and accessories already surpassed Mac
             | sales, although I don't know what exactly is included in
             | accessories.)
             | 
             | Also, I don't think it's useful to compare wearables to
             | Mac, because Watch isn't much of a computing platform,
             | AirPods aren't a computing platform at all, and Vision Pro
             | has almost no sales. This category is mostly accessories to
             | iPhone.
             | 
             | https://sixcolors.com/post/2025/10/charts-apple-caps-off-
             | bes...
        
               | fyrn_ wrote:
               | Wearables may include lightning charger cables :) ?
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I find iPads only marginally interesting now that I don't
               | travel as much. Although the newer magnetic keyboards
               | make them more usable as laptop replacements than they
               | used to be. (Still not totally sold--maybe next longer
               | trip.)
               | 
               | Re: Macbooks generally. My mind was somewhat blown when a
               | former co-worker told me their kid didn't want a Macbook.
               | They were fine with an iPhone for their schoolwork.
               | 
               | Personally, I still find MacBooks as the least
               | replaceable category--other than the iPhone. Anything
               | else I could live without as needed.
        
           | browningstreet wrote:
           | Not too long ago the iPad was painted as a disappointing
           | product line, relative to the iPhone. It's still bigger than
           | the entire Mac business. Alas.
           | 
           | EDIT: Ack, you're right. Bad comment, self.
        
             | lapcat wrote:
             | No, iPad is not bigger than Mac. It's smaller. Look again
             | at the numbers.
        
         | xfour wrote:
         | Seems like the obvious reason for this is that Mac is now a
         | niche for people that operate computers, where there are likely
         | 6 people that don't for every 1 that does. We keep hearing that
         | the next generation is "true computer" illiterate.
         | 
         | The second reason is likely that there are computers that are
         | 1/3 of the price subsidized by the terrible ad-supported OS
         | installs. (Has anyone tried to setup a MS computer lately, it's
         | an ad-box).
        
           | Terr_ wrote:
           | > We keep hearing that the next generation is "true computer"
           | illiterate.
           | 
           | I 'member when "personal" computers were going to be a kind
           | of capital-equipment made available to the masses, creating
           | new levels of autonomy and personal control over our own
           | lives, working _for our_ goals and interests... Whoops.
           | 
           | Folks like Stallman _did_ warn me though.
        
           | ReptileMan wrote:
           | >We keep hearing that the next generation is "true computer"
           | illiterate.
           | 
           | This is logical result of walled gardens.
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | There's also the fact that it's tough to share a smartphone
           | like you can a computer. I suspect Apple hasn't made user
           | switching a thing on iOS for this reason.
        
           | doctorpangloss wrote:
           | It also helps that they are moving phone financing off their
           | balance sheet and onto AT&T's, where people who don't know
           | anything think AT&T is giving away iPhone 17s right now, when
           | of course, actually, Apple is.
           | 
           | The better question is, who do you know pays full price up
           | front for an iPhone with no discounts? Only people who
           | destroy or lose their current iPhone? The parents of
           | teenagers giving the teenager the old phone and replacing
           | theirs?
        
             | weikju wrote:
             | I pay full price, and use cheap MVNOs for phone service.
             | Ends up being much cheaper and no mobile carrier
             | shenanigans polluting my phones, sim lock, etc.
        
               | gigatexal wrote:
               | Same. I buy the phone I can afford. And then I pay for
               | cell coverage I can afford. And then I go about my life
               | living it logically.
        
               | doctorpangloss wrote:
               | You didn't trade in your old phone?
        
             | rconti wrote:
             | I pay full price up front. Just bought an iPhone 17 pro and
             | sold the 16 pro on Swappa. I've never found a trade-in deal
             | that was better than selling a phone myself, and the 1 or 2
             | times I've tried it, I've ended up frustrated by having a
             | locked phone, and paid it off early anyway.
             | 
             | The big carriers hide the phone in the price but you're
             | still paying it. I just use US Mobile unlimited plans for
             | $35/mo, plus it gives me free international service which
             | was the real advantage for me. Paying 1/3 the annual
             | service plan and $0/day int'l roaming instead of $15/day.
        
           | MrGilbert wrote:
           | > We keep hearing that the next generation is "true computer"
           | illiterate.
           | 
           | We had that development with cars. 40 years ago, it was
           | common to fix your own car. Nowadays, we have a subscription
           | for seat warmers. The manual tells you to visit the dealer to
           | get your brakes checked. Makes me sad, somehow. But people
           | have choosen this path as a collective.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | People choose what to outsource and, as cars have become
             | more complicated and require more diagnostic equipment,
             | they go to a dealer/mechanic. Personally, I've never done a
             | lot of personal car mechanic work.
             | 
             | On the other hand, I've done my own cooking more than not.
             | 
             | You make choices about what you do yourself and what you
             | have others do for you.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Cars are both more complicated and way more reliable. You
               | used to spend a Sunday changing your plugs and points.
               | Now your car lacks points and if the plugs last less than
               | 100000km it's a disappointment. You used to need new
               | clutch plates on the regular, now nobody ever needs them
               | or if they do need them the car is a total loss because
               | good luck getting to the clutches. On my current car the
               | closest I ever came to working on it was replacing the
               | wiper blades.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | They were already this reliable by the 80s and 90s.
               | 
               | Where new cars get shitty is the electronics that get
               | shoehorned in to control systems that were previously
               | controlled by a button or dial.
        
               | giobox wrote:
               | > cars have become more complicated and require more
               | diagnostic equipment
               | 
               | For the consumable stuff every car owner has to deal
               | with, nothing has really changed in 40 years, honestly! A
               | brake service is still done the exact same way, same with
               | virtually all the fluid services.
               | 
               | I just find far more people parrot "modern cars are so
               | complicated" today and don't even consider that in fact,
               | it is relatively simple to change a brake pad and disc,
               | or your own oil, perhaps an air filter, even on most
               | brand new cars. Fluids filters and brakes are like 90% of
               | most people's maintenance needs nowadays.
               | 
               | YouTube has also massively lowered the barrier to working
               | on cars, given there are multiple easy to follow guides
               | for just about any car service for any car model you can
               | think of.
        
               | Jnr wrote:
               | Except many new cars are locked down in software, for
               | example not allowing to release rear parking brakes
               | without authorized service subscription, keeping the
               | electronic keys for each VIN unique and stored in the
               | cloud. Yes, there are workarounds on releasing the brakes
               | manually but it is a burden.
               | 
               | Also similarly as with iPhones, many cars require
               | connecting to the authorized service to change headlights
               | and other parts since they are paired with the MCU.
               | 
               | I know how to work on my car but I am not able to because
               | someone decided to lock it down.
        
               | rconti wrote:
               | I don't follow. Every time I drive my car I release the
               | parking brake. On the cars with electronic brakes, you
               | use a button rather than a lever. I'd do it the same way
               | to service the brakes.
        
               | giobox wrote:
               | A lot of electronic parking brakes do have a service
               | mode. For most modern Fords, there is a procedure, as one
               | example of many:
               | 
               | > https://www.brakeandfrontend.com/quick-answer-
               | electronic-par...
               | 
               | You typically need the piston fully retracted to replace
               | pads, which very rarely happens just by disengaging the
               | park brake.
               | 
               | If you are old enough to have changed a manual handbrake
               | pad, you normally had to screw the piston back in before
               | you could fit the thicker new pad with a "piston rewind
               | tool" even if the handbrake was off, the electronic
               | parking brake service mode essentially does this for you,
               | or unblocks the piston permitting a rewind tool to work.
               | 
               | > https://www.thedrive.com/guides-and-gear/how-to-use-a-
               | brake-...
               | 
               | FWIW, I've never found an electronic parking brake I
               | couldn't rewind myself after a few minutes on google.
        
               | duskwuff wrote:
               | You're overstating how easy these tasks are for many
               | people. Doing brake pads/rotors or changing oil requires
               | a driveway, some tools, and (for oil) a way to collect
               | and dispose of the old fluids. Not everyone has access to
               | those things - for instance, people who live in an
               | apartment complex may not have the space to work on their
               | car.
               | 
               | (Air filters are, admittedly, pretty easy.)
        
               | giobox wrote:
               | Sure, everything you say was true for many folks 40 years
               | ago too though! My point is, the processes haven't really
               | changed for the common maintenance tasks over this
               | period, people's perception of the difficulty certainly
               | appears to have though.
        
               | stockresearcher wrote:
               | Actually, in modern times you can buy an oil extraction
               | pump off Amazon for $100, making oil changes so much
               | easier than they were 40 years ago! A lot of [especially
               | European] cars have the filter accessible from the top,
               | meaning that you can change oil in 15 minutes in any
               | apartment parking space by doing little more than popping
               | the hood!
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | You can change your oil wherever you parked the car. A
               | way to collect the used oil is as easy as an old jug of
               | milk, or the empty bottles from your new oil. Disposal
               | involves finding an autozone or someplace similar and
               | dropping it off for free. In terms of tools you'd need, a
               | $5 dish from autozone to collect the oil, a 10c copper
               | washer for your drain plug, and a socket wrench.
        
               | ASalazarMX wrote:
               | > it is very simple to change a brake pad and disc
               | 
               | I can attest that changing a brake pad is mission
               | impossible level without the proper tools. The tools and
               | experience are what make it look easy, for someone that
               | has both.
        
               | pram wrote:
               | Changing a pad/disc/caliper isn't "hard" but it's time
               | consuming and very messy. Most people probably don't find
               | spending 2 hours getting the car jacked, tires off, etc
               | to be a good or enjoyable use of time!
        
               | tbirdny wrote:
               | I wish it took 2 hours. For me it's spend 2 hours
               | shopping for the right part, finding it for a good price,
               | and ordering it. Then spend an hour watching youtube
               | videos for how to do it. Then spend 4 hours gathering the
               | right tools, getting the car jacked, tires off, etc.,
               | then put everything away, and clean up. That's the best
               | case. I could get the wrong part, my car looks different
               | than the videos, I do it wrong, or break something. I
               | recently replaced my front brakes. I maybe saved $400.
               | I'm proud of myself. I kind of enjoyed it, but it's hard
               | to justify.
        
               | jajuuka wrote:
               | These are all relatively simple TO YOU. You are not
               | everyone though. Some people lack the mobility, strength
               | or even time to do these things. Some people just don't
               | want to get dirty working on their car. Some people don't
               | have the space to do these kinds of maintenance.
               | 
               | Not everyone needs to know how to compile their own
               | kernel, build their own furniture or clean their laundry
               | perfectly. Everyone has their own interests and areas of
               | expertise they want to delve in to. Now I can screw up a
               | brake job working on it all day and rewatching YouTube
               | videos wondering what I missed, or I can take it to a
               | shop and get it done in an hour for cheap. That's just me
               | though. I spent a lot of time working on cars in my youth
               | and I'm just tired of spending my time on it. I don't
               | like it and I am more than willing to pay someone who
               | does like it to do it.
        
               | dghlsakjg wrote:
               | > These are all relatively simple TO YOU. You are not
               | everyone though. Some people lack the mobility, strength
               | or even time to do these things. Some people just don't
               | want to get dirty working on their car. Some people don't
               | have the space to do these kinds of maintenance.
               | 
               | That is irrelevant to the argument he is making that
               | things have not gotten harder in the last 40 years in
               | regards to car maintenance that you can do at home.
               | 
               | His point is that the perception that car maintenance has
               | gotten harder for the average joe does not match reality.
               | Almost all of the things that need periodic on modern
               | cars are more or less the same as they were in 1985.
        
               | kshacker wrote:
               | No, I think the other side has a point. If I were doing
               | 10 services on my car, I would have muscle memory of a
               | lot of things. If I am doing only brakes, and maybe
               | another thing, I do not have that muscle memory. While
               | the work may not be harder, the familiarity is gone for a
               | lot of people.
               | 
               | BTW just before Covid, or during Covid, I took a car
               | mechanic course from the local De Anza college - no hands
               | on, so that's why I think it was during Covid. But after
               | 5 years and no experience, I have forgotten except the
               | abstract concepts. Then imagine people who never had to
               | look under the hood -- ever.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | Stuff like changing cabin air filter or your own oil
               | takes no additional space beyond the space already
               | occupied by the parked car. You don't even need to lift
               | the car to change the oil in most cases unless the car
               | designers were massochists. Sure, maybe not everyone can
               | get down on their back anymore, but that shouldn't be an
               | issue for able bodied people.
        
               | rconti wrote:
               | More complicated _and_ more reliable!
        
             | myvoiceismypass wrote:
             | Modern cars are also way harder to work on than in the
             | past. You used to be able to buy a Haynes manual for every
             | major car and could do most of the repair work if you
             | wanted! Nowadays, not so much. Specialized tools galore,
             | tearing apart the whole car for minor hidden things... This
             | one is far more on the car manufacturers than consumers
             | IMHO. I am also sad about the death of the manual
             | transmission. Glad to have gotten one of the final years
             | that Mini will be producing them!
        
             | lostlogin wrote:
             | > Makes me sad
             | 
             | On one hand, yes. But also, cars are now an appliance. They
             | rarely break, can be bought quite cheaply (if that's what
             | you want) and consume little time. I like this.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | Except they are 2020s appliances with bells and whistles
               | and reinventing the wheel for no reason with electronic
               | wizzbangs and dohickeys and layers and layers of
               | complexity. Your car in the 90s was the appliance. Simple
               | electronic system. Reliable simple ICE engine. Simple
               | gearbox. Easy to work on which means even if you don't
               | work on your own car it helps you, because labor takes
               | less time and therefore repair shop bills are lower.
               | Parts back then were widely shared across a manufacturers
               | lineup so readily available and relatively cheap. 4
               | cylinder economy car was practically a commodity back
               | then.
        
           | decafninja wrote:
           | My wife has been without a desktop or laptop for more than a
           | decade. Her primary computing devices are her phone and iPad.
           | 
           | For doing tasks like online banking or booking plane tickets,
           | I find the mobile experience frustrating and therefore do it
           | on my laptop. She finds the laptop clunky and finds mobile
           | much easier.
        
           | jajuuka wrote:
           | You can easily turn the "ads" off though. The only true ad
           | are the start menu ones which is a single toggle in Settings.
           | I have much bigger issues with setup time. I just got a
           | Windows laptop and it took (not exaggerating) 3 hours to
           | finally get to the desktop. Multiple reboots at the POST,
           | then taking forever to download Windows updates and get
           | through all the setup screens. Compared to a Mac setup it's
           | an insanely long time to just use your computer.
           | 
           | That is even not counting the additional Windows updates
           | after you get to the desktop and updates from the OEM. This
           | is also with a Microsoft account while restoring my own
           | settings from OneDrive.
        
         | racl101 wrote:
         | If they ever stopped making Macs guess I'd start using Linux
         | other than just for servers.
        
           | ikamm wrote:
           | One would hope that before ceasing to make the hardware that
           | they open it up and actually allow you to install other OSes
        
           | seemaze wrote:
           | Framework desktop incoming here. (mac/iPad/i)OS 26 tipped me
           | over the edge. Eyeing whether 7 years of GrapheneOS on a
           | pixel will suffice as well..
        
             | gigatexal wrote:
             | Good luck. I went the other way on the laptop desktop side
             | (I was always an iPhone guy throughout it all). I'm super
             | happy. I won't go back.
        
         | 827a wrote:
         | > Next 5 years or so (or even less) both the iPad and the
         | Wearables, Home and Accessories category will overtake the
         | sales of Macs.
         | 
         | Are we reading the same quarterly report?
         | 
         | Wearables/Home/Accessories is slightly higher than the Mac,
         | yes, but its a category that has been trending poorly for Apple
         | for ~18 months now IIRC, and that hasn't gotten better this
         | quarter (9.04B->9.01B 3mo YoY). There's no foreseeable future
         | where Vision starts driving Mac-like revenue (meaning, it'll be
         | at least 2 years). Airpods are huge mainstays but have really
         | hit market capacity and aren't growing. Apple Watch will see
         | strong growth if they can successfully get glucose monitoring
         | working, but that's an *if, and until then its slipping from an
         | "upgrade every 3 years" to even longer lifecycle for most
         | people.
         | 
         | Meanwhile: Mac is their fastest growing hardware segment by
         | revenue (+12% 3mo YoY) (iPhone is +6%, iPad is flat, Services
         | +15%).
         | 
         | iPhone aint going anywhere, Services are carrying their growth,
         | but Mac is very solidly the #3 darling of this report. Their
         | other product lines (Apple Watch, iPad, Airpods, etc) are
         | interesting, successful businesses, but its unlikely we're
         | going to see much growth out of them over the next 2 years. The
         | story is iPhone, Services, and Mac, in that order, and there's
         | no #4.
        
           | willtemperley wrote:
           | I wonder how much the Windows 11 debacle will increase Mac
           | sales by.
        
             | willtemperley wrote:
             | Hahaha that was some targetted downvoting! Must have hit a
             | nerve.
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | It's hard to see someone living under a rock for this long
             | suddenly deciding to switch the Mac.
             | 
             | I suspect iPhone adoption has done a lot more toward Mac
             | adoption.
        
         | lateforwork wrote:
         | Revenue growth is more interesting than raw revenue: iPhone up
         | 6% YoY, Mac up 13%, iPad flat, Wearables, Home, and Accessories
         | flat.
         | 
         | So Mac is doing very well!
        
           | gigatexal wrote:
           | Mac hardware has been the best it's ever been.
           | 
           | Though if the Mac Pro with all those slots could run nvidia
           | GPUs I'd be even crazier I think.
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | Crazier if Apple got into the GPU business.
        
               | jjtheblunt wrote:
               | They somewhat are, and have long been, but weren't
               | targeting the same audience as Nvidia has lately.
               | 
               | https://developer.apple.com/videos/play/tech-
               | talks/111375/
        
             | asdff wrote:
             | If only devs wanted to build for mac like they did 15 years
             | ago when the hardware was shitty
        
         | tpurves wrote:
         | Around a decade ago, even as they were just launching Apple
         | Pay, Apple was trading at a multiple barely over 10x. Street
         | was valuing Apple like a manufacturing OEM company. I remember
         | buying a small chunck of shares at the time thinking, this is
         | crazy, just the services revenue off of owning these platforms
         | is going to become massive one day.
        
           | maximus_01 wrote:
           | Good investment decision and obviously the street was very
           | wrong, but the reason the multiple was low was because of
           | concerns earnings were at risk from a) their issues in China
           | (which they solved, at least for now, but was a very valid
           | concern at the time) and b) android eating them (there was a
           | narrative they were about to be blackberried, or that android
           | was doing what windows did to mac). There are good reasons
           | why that didn't happen.
        
         | madeofpalk wrote:
         | > _Services (iCloud, apps, music, TV shows etc.) now bigger
         | than every other category, except the iPhone, combined_
         | 
         | This is reputation laundering. 'Services revenue' is
         | undoubtably App Store game microtransactions, bigger than all
         | other services categories combined.
        
           | wingspar wrote:
           | My understanding is Services includes the billions Google
           | pays for Safari search default, reported to be $20 billion a
           | year.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | > Next 5 years or so (or even less) both the iPad and the
         | Wearables, Home and Accessories category will overtake the
         | sales of Macs.
         | 
         | I view this the exact opposite way. The death of the laptop in
         | favor of tablets has been touted for about a decade now, and it
         | has still failed to materialize. Wearables have even surpassed
         | the iPad.
         | 
         | Not to mention, the Mac laptops have seen a recent surge of
         | popularity last few years, due to still being the only
         | realistic ARM-based laptop, with the battery life / weight vs
         | performance you get from this. This is still likely to remain
         | the reality for at least a few years, and thus they're likely
         | to snowball even more based on this reputation.
        
           | Gigachad wrote:
           | Even if people still own laptops, if they aren't using them
           | as much they aren't going to upgrade as frequently and they
           | aren't going to buy the expensive models.
           | 
           | Theres also the fact much of the developing world went
           | straight to mobile, skipping laptops.
        
             | tsimionescu wrote:
             | And yet MacBooks, some of the most expensive laptops, ate
             | out selling iPads, and outgrowing them. I don't think the
             | data points in the direction of your argument, quite the
             | opposite.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | In terms of unit sales, Apple sells roughly double the number
         | of iPads over Macs.
         | 
         | If the rumors about a cheaper entry-level MacBook are true,
         | that might put a small dent into that, though I wouldn't hold
         | my breath.
        
         | j1elo wrote:
         | I really don't get how people do research work (like finding
         | good flight tickets, or comparing hotels to stay in for a trip)
         | without a computer. I really cannot stand seeing websites in a
         | small screen without the ability to quickly open 4 browser
         | windows with 4 tabs each for different combinations of dates,
         | for example.
        
           | flyinglizard wrote:
           | People use computers, just not Macs. Which is a shame because
           | it feels like where Apple has the largest advantage compared
           | to their competitors, being that high end Android phones are
           | rather nice and the barrier to making a good tablet is quite
           | low but a laptop is a whole different ball game, and Apple is
           | far ahead of the rest.
        
             | ponector wrote:
             | Or rather not buying laptops as often as phone. 2015 Mac or
             | other premium laptop is good enough for internet surfing.
        
               | agentcoops wrote:
               | I bought my dad a Mac laptop when I got my first job out
               | of college and he used it for well over a decade. I even
               | later got him a MacBook Air and he kept using the old one
               | for years yet out of habit... I imagine that's not an
               | uncommon pattern for non-programmers who aren't gamers.
        
           | JKCalhoun wrote:
           | Perhaps a lot of people use their "work computer".
           | 
           | Me, I was in on the ground floor with laptops (and desktops)
           | and so prefer them. Kids though?
        
           | moduspol wrote:
           | I have literally watched my in-laws plan and book a vacation
           | from their smartphones. From their house, where they also
           | have computers.
           | 
           | They're quite different from my side of the family, but the
           | biggest thing is that they've never been big planners.
           | Everything is by the seat of their pants. If you're like
           | that, you're probably OK with taking one of the first three
           | SEO-optimized search results and making it work.
           | 
           | Meanwhile, I'm not booking anything until I have a proposed
           | itinerary.
        
             | jdross wrote:
             | How often do you get a meaningfully better result than
             | google.com/flights? Outside of booking with points, it's
             | all basically the same thing and I can book on google on my
             | phone in under a minute
        
               | dghlsakjg wrote:
               | I live in a place where I have to fly to a nearby bigger
               | airport to go anywhere outside my province. In other
               | words, everything is a compromise on routing, layovers
               | and cost. When I lived in a big city, it was just timing
               | and cost that mattered.
               | 
               | Frequently it isn't that google flights on a phone
               | doesn't find the same flight, its that it is much easier
               | to figure out the tradeoffs with more screen real estate.
               | E.g. I can see that a flight is cheaper, but it involves
               | mixing airlines, and a terminal change that I probably
               | can't trust on a tight schedule in winter.
        
               | ellisv wrote:
               | For tasks like planning travel I often am trying to
               | optimize multiple goals at once. I might find cheaper
               | flights on certain days but more expensive hotels. This
               | is much easier on larger screens because you can view
               | more information side by side.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | It's not that you get a meaningfully better result. It is
               | that you can open an arbitrary number of results and
               | trivially compare them side by side. Essentially
               | multitasking multiple concurrent searches and scenarios.
               | Smartphones limit you to one view at a time on the screen
               | and make it somewhat clumsy to flip through tabs in
               | comparison.
        
           | ajmurmann wrote:
           | Is this because they don't have macs or because they spent
           | more on the other stuff? My M1 macBook is 4+ years old and
           | still going strong. How many phones do average people buy in
           | that same time?
        
           | oceanplexian wrote:
           | I'm not going to list specific apps since I don't want to be
           | a shill, but in the last few years the web has become
           | increasingly hostile with ads, fake reviews, bad information
           | (Especially sites like Reddit.com). A lot of places that used
           | to have good information have since been astroturfed. And
           | Search Engines like Google will happily serve them up on the
           | front page of any relevant web search.
           | 
           | "I don't get why the kids these days book their travel using
           | an app" is this generation's "I don't understand why people
           | don't use travel agents". There are better sources of
           | information and that information has moved to walled-garden
           | mobile apps.
        
             | lostlogin wrote:
             | > I don't understand why people don't use travel agents
             | 
             | I laughed. Just used a travel agent.
        
           | lm28469 wrote:
           | You don't really have to buy a new laptop every year though.
           | If it wasn't for my work provided laptop I'd still use my
           | 2015 mbp
        
             | portaouflop wrote:
             | I still use my thinkpad from 2012. It runs fine with Linux
             | on it, i had to replace the hdd and some other parts but
             | otherwise it's holding up. Granted I only do very simple
             | stuff on it, no dev work, video or gaming. Mostly browser,
             | reading, writing, music and chatting
        
           | ajross wrote:
           | People do research work without a _mac_. A Windows box or
           | Chromebook to do the stuff you want is less than half the
           | cost of an Air, and a MBP is priced out of everything but
           | status-conscious executive (and para-executive) consumers and
           | FAANG-adjacent tech folks.
        
           | JustExAWS wrote:
           | My wife and I travel a lot, we aren't that price sensitive.
           | We are going to fly Delta where we both have status and stay
           | in a Hyatt or Hilton brand hotel where I have status. It
           | takes us less than 10 minutes to make travel plans on our
           | phones.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | Eddy Cue was tasked, over a decade ago?, with getting out front
         | with services. Microsoft was doing it. And no one wants to have
         | all their eggs in the iPhone basket.
         | 
         | Congrats to Eddy Cue then?
        
           | nerdsniper wrote:
           | Most of the "Services" are the App Store and iCloud and
           | AppleCare, so it's still directly tied to market share of the
           | iPhone. If iPhone sales drop 20%, "Services" will drop 15%
           | (with some amount of time lag / smoothing)
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | iCloud (and the Mac) App Store, AppleCare are Mac products
             | as well. But to your point, sure, Mac sales are a fraction
             | of the phone's--the latter's loss would be devastating for
             | Apple and for services.
             | 
             | It's too bad the world has moved on as it has. I liked
             | Apple a lot when they were _just_ a computer company.
        
         | victorbjorklund wrote:
         | I get that the phones outsell the Macs but just wild Ipads
         | almost match Macs.
        
           | lostlogin wrote:
           | Especially given how long an ipad lives, and how overpowered
           | they are for a large portion of their users.
        
         | bmitc wrote:
         | Kind of funny they don't separate out accessories as its own
         | category. If I were to guess it's because they don't want to
         | advertise how much they make selling dongles.
        
       | bilsbie wrote:
       | How come they don't add AI?
        
         | peterspath wrote:
         | They have enough "AI" stuff. People just don't know it is AI.
         | That is the best way of integrating AI into your product(s).
         | The tech behind stuff doesn't really matter for the end user.
         | 
         | other companies should also follow that trend, use ai for
         | useful features, just give the feature a good name... no need
         | to mention "ai"... because next year it could be something else
         | that is powering the feature.
        
           | eastbound wrote:
           | Siri can't tell the time and people on Android can remove
           | passerby's from pictures, we can't. I'm an Apple fanboy but
           | Apple has been coasting for 10 years.
        
             | bikelang wrote:
             | Siri can tell the time (I just checked - I've never tried
             | before now) and you've been able to remove people/cars from
             | photos for a while now I believe. Looks like iOS 16? Still
             | took way too long and it wouldn't surprise me if it is crap
             | compared to Android (I haven't used it). They also finally
             | added call screening - idk why that took so long as my
             | Pixel 3 had it over 5 years ago.
        
               | digianarchist wrote:
               | Apple is far behind the competition when it comes to
               | image editing...
               | 
               | https://www.instagram.com/reels/DPWkNZHjebe/
        
           | kshacker wrote:
           | AI spell check OR rather sentence improvements are awesome.
           | 
           | But by AI, people mean LLM and context. Remember what I told
           | you -- yesterday I was booking a flight, can we check the
           | prices again? What happened to that hotel booking? Dozens of
           | other use cases. A private AI with awesome memory and zero
           | hallucinations will be ... awesome.
        
         | smt88 wrote:
         | They tried and made fools of themselves. They're trying again
         | right now.
        
         | sethops1 wrote:
         | If people are buying iPhones without AI mashed into every
         | orifice, why bother?
        
       | oxqbldpxo wrote:
       | All these companies depend on TSMC for their life.
        
         | sho_hn wrote:
         | And TSMC depends on machines by ASML they can also sell to
         | others.
         | 
         | And ASML licensed the technology from EUV LLC.
         | 
         | Which was a conglomerate of a bunch of state-funded US research
         | labs.
         | 
         | And the US cut its science funding.
         | 
         | Misery all the way down!
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | It's a conglomerate of researchers that were employed by the
           | feds and private institutions who met have received various
           | forms of grants
           | 
           | I think the science funding cuts will be inconsequential to
           | that entity
        
             | lokar wrote:
             | But what about the next area where science can have a
             | massive impact?
        
               | yieldcrv wrote:
               | sounds like a totally different thread to me
        
           | throw0101a wrote:
           | > _And ASML licensed the technology from EUV LLC._
           | 
           | And glass/mirrors from Zeiss, amongst a whole bunch others:
           | 
           | > _ASML employs more than 42,000 people[1] from 143
           | nationalities and relies on a network of nearly 5,000 tier 1
           | suppliers.[6]_
           | 
           | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
           | 
           | * https://www.robotsops.com/complete-list-of-all-suppliers-
           | and...
           | 
           | Let's also not forget the the two most prominent chip design
           | software companies, Cadence and Synopsys, are American:
           | 
           | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_EDA_companies
           | 
           | There are all sorts of inter-dependencies between companies
           | and countries: welcome to globalization.
        
         | seizethecheese wrote:
         | If true, TSMC would command much higher margins. Their net
         | revenue is a fraction of Nvidia or Apple
        
           | trenchpilgrim wrote:
           | TSMC's business is much higher risk, each improvement to
           | manufacturing process is a massive investment that's never a
           | guaranteed success.
        
         | nomilk wrote:
         | Had to look up what TSMC meant (Taiwan Semiconductor
         | Manufacturing Company).
         | 
         | What would Apple's next best option be if a war rendered TSMC
         | unavailable?
        
           | madeofpalk wrote:
           | https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/apple-will-spend-
           | more...
           | 
           | > The fund's expansion includes a multibillion-dollar
           | commitment from Apple to produce advanced silicon in TSMC's
           | Fab 21 facility in Arizona. Apple is the largest customer at
           | this state-of-the-art facility, which employs more than 2,000
           | workers to manufacture the chips in the United States. Mass
           | production of Apple chips began last month.
        
           | colechristensen wrote:
           | >What would Apple's next best option be if a war rendered
           | TSMC unavailable?
           | 
           | Onshore TSMC fabs followed by Intel fabs.
           | 
           | Properly motivated, I think Intel and Apple could do a lot
           | relatively quickly.
        
           | 45764986 wrote:
           | If a war rendered TSMC unavailable it would crash the global
           | economy. There is no next best option.
        
             | astrange wrote:
             | Samsung, Intel, SMIC are not incredibly far behind. TSMC is
             | the best because we (the US and its customers) trust them
             | more than its competitors and so fund its R&D and license
             | them more exclusive technologies.
        
               | dontlaugh wrote:
               | SMIC in particular have made very quick progress. They'd
               | probably match TSMC first in such a scenario.
        
           | martinald wrote:
           | There's an amazing book on Apple in China all about this
           | issue (and more). It's a great read and I'd highly recommend
           | if you're interested.
           | 
           | Also Chip Wars is really good. I may be confusing which one
           | is which because I read them back to back, but they overlap!
        
             | nomilk wrote:
             | Thanks! I've added both to my reading list
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | I mean... do they? TSMC is the best but in a world where they
         | had to use Samsung or Intel is it really a death sentence?
        
       | andy_ppp wrote:
       | Apple could substantially eat into Nvidia's AI lunch if they
       | really tried, honestly Macs are fast enough... my guess is by the
       | time M6 is coming out they will have external GPUs available for
       | both the data centre and home use. If I was them I'd already be
       | taking orders, power requirements alone even if they aren't as
       | fast 2 nodes ahead would make their offering sensational.
        
         | reaperducer wrote:
         | _by the time M6 is coming out they will have external GPUs
         | available for both the data centre and home use._
         | 
         | I thought there were already external GPUs for Macs. Since
         | before COVID, IIRC.
        
           | larkost wrote:
           | There were eGPUs for Macs, but only the Intel ones. To my
           | knowledge there are no drivers for eGPUs for Apple Silicon.
           | My guess is that without Apple's involvement it would be
           | near-impossible to get graphics accelerators working.
           | 
           | In theory you could make things work for some sort of
           | computational acceleration (e.g.: AI, or some OpenCL work),
           | but I am not sure that that market is really worth all of the
           | work it would take. For those sorts of things it is probably
           | a lot easier to setup an external (Linux) box, and send the
           | work over.
        
             | MaysonL wrote:
             | Just last week: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-
             | components/gpus/tiny-corp-su...
        
         | fnordpiglet wrote:
         | I don't think so. The GPU die itself isn't the key it's the
         | interconnects and data center scale infra coupled with their
         | closed software. If it were just GPUs AMD is better positioned
         | than Apple.
        
           | JKCalhoun wrote:
           | "If it were just GPUs AMD is better positioned than Apple."
           | 
           | Is that true? Does cash mean nothing?
        
         | kcb wrote:
         | They'll just need to start from scratch on all this.
         | https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CwyW!,f_auto,q_auto:...
         | 
         | I don't think some power efficient laptop SoCs gives you much
         | competitive advantage there.
        
       | yRetsyM wrote:
       | Interesting that Google and Apple matched their quarterly
       | earnings in revenue .
        
       | nullbyte808 wrote:
       | No wonder they treat the Mac like a third-class citizen. Mac
       | sales barely pay their tax bill.
        
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