[HN Gopher] Harnessing America's Heat Pump Moment
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       Harnessing America's Heat Pump Moment
        
       Author : ssuds
       Score  : 39 points
       Date   : 2025-10-24 20:05 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.heatpumped.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.heatpumped.org)
        
       | themafia wrote:
       | They don't provide heat below freezing unless you get a
       | specialized model. Even then their ability to provide heat
       | reduces the colder it gets outside. It's still recommended to
       | have a backup should you live in an area where this could happen.
       | 
       | It's great on paper. It has obvious problems in practice.
        
         | micromacrofoot wrote:
         | This is outdatated nonsense, I had my system installed 10 years
         | ago and it works down to -15F... even the cheap $1k systems on
         | Amazon work below freezing now
         | 
         | Like any piece of equipment, just check the specs before you
         | buy...
        
           | happytoexplain wrote:
           | It's semi-true even with modern systems and shouldn't be
           | outright dismissed as "nonsense".
           | 
           | A normal person is scared of the prospect of _losing heating
           | when it 's most needed_. -15F accounts for many places in the
           | US, but many others, not so much. Even New Jersey, which we
           | don't think of as the frigid North, _can theoretically_ drop
           | below that number, and nobody wants  "almost always" when it
           | comes to life-giving heat in the coldest winter.
        
             | micromacrofoot wrote:
             | I live north of New Jersey by 300 miles and have only used
             | a heat pump for winter heating for 10 years
        
           | quickthrowman wrote:
           | What's the COP at -15F? It's probably close to 1, which means
           | you're paying for resistive heat which happens to be the most
           | expensive possible way to heat something up.
        
             | RealityVoid wrote:
             | Just checked the spec of mine at -10degC. It's a bit over
             | 3.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | That's +15F, what's the COP at -26C?
        
               | RealityVoid wrote:
               | Whoops, my bad when doing the transformation. It won't
               | work that low, only down to 20degC and at that point it
               | probably approaches 1. Lucky me, the temps never dropped
               | to under 19degC in the last 20 years in my area. So I'm
               | probably going to be fine.
        
             | SigmundA wrote:
             | A Mitsubishi Hyper-heat MXZ-4C36NAHZ for instance has a COP
             | of 2.12 at -13F outdoor temp and 70F indoor temp.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | That's actually a lot better than I expected, thanks!
        
             | micromacrofoot wrote:
             | Yeah most places aren't consistently -15F, not going to be
             | a dealbreaker for a week.
             | 
             | If you live in Minnesota stick with gas, we'll be ok. The
             | majority of the population will never hit -15F.
        
         | Centigonal wrote:
         | Cold climate heat pumps have improved a lot, even in the last
         | 10 years. Modern models can maintain comfortable temperatures
         | down to -15F (-26C).
         | 
         | Lots of happy customers in this reddit thread:
         | https://www.reddit.com/r/heatpumps/comments/146jg7k/cold_cli...
        
           | themafia wrote:
           | > I've tested it down to around -5 degrees (f), and it was
           | 100% able to keep the house above 63 degree (f).
           | 
           | Some customers will accept that. Most will not. Reddit is not
           | a particularly representative sample of the entire market.
        
             | hitarpetar wrote:
             | ok, Reddit is not representative. what qualifies you to
             | speak for what customers will accept?
        
               | themafia wrote:
               | I spent 5 years installing and maintaining A/C equipment
               | for residences and a few small commercial locations.
        
             | christophilus wrote:
             | 63 when it's -5 out seems totally fine. More than fine for
             | much of the US.
        
               | nsxwolf wrote:
               | "Paid more, and now we are cold". This is not my
               | preferred version of the 21st century.
        
               | VWWHFSfQ wrote:
               | Maybe totally fine for you. But that will not be "totally
               | fine" for much of the US when they are expecting to keep
               | their house at 72 degrees and the new technology they got
               | talked into can't do it.
               | 
               | The tech has limits and cold weather states can't avoid
               | that or the reputation will get really bad and the tech
               | will fail.
        
               | micromacrofoot wrote:
               | I'm not sure if you've lived in prolonged -15F areas, but
               | many conventional heating systems struggle too...
               | especially in poorly insulated houses. People often have
               | wood stoves or other ways to compensate.
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | If you read just a smidge of the context, it's a sizing
             | issue, not a capability issue.
        
           | nsxwolf wrote:
           | This would not work in Chicago.
        
             | pessimizer wrote:
             | Chicago days under -15degF since 2015:                 Jan
             | 18, 2016 -21degF Coldest day of that winter       Dec 19,
             | 2016 -21degF Early-season Arctic outbreak       Dec 27,
             | 2017 -19degF Part of a prolonged late-December cold wave
             | Jan  2, 2018 -23degF Deep freeze to start the year
             | Jan 30, 2019 -30degF Coldest Chicago temp since 1985;
             | "Polar Vortex" event       Feb 14, 2020 -18degF Valentine's
             | Day Arctic blast       Feb  7, 2021 -21degF Mid-winter cold
             | snap       Dec 23, 2022 -23degF Pre-Christmas Arctic front
             | Feb  3, 2023 -17degF Last occurrence to date
             | 
             | So basically every year.
             | 
             | edit: downvoted for noticing that it is cold.
        
         | arrowleaf wrote:
         | The physics of heat pumps disagrees with you. The freezing
         | point of water has no bearing on at what point they become less
         | effective.
        
           | themafia wrote:
           | Heat pumps lose efficiency as it gets colder. There are no
           | laws of physics which contradict this.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | The relevant laws of physics operate in Kelvin. 60degF is
             | 288 K. -20degF is 244 K. These are not that far apart.
        
           | SigmundA wrote:
           | Not exactly true, one of the main issues with heat pumps in
           | cold weather is the outside coil freezing up with ice
           | blocking airflow due to them being below the freezing point
           | of water.
           | 
           | This is actually why older heat pumps became less effective
           | around 40F because the coils would start to hit 32F since
           | they are attempting to pull heat from the warmer outside air
           | and are therefore colder than the outside air.
           | 
           | There are various solutions to this problem, the standard way
           | is to run it in reverse as a air conditioner for a short
           | period if it detects the situation to defrost the coils and
           | if the system has resistive heat strips it uses those to warm
           | the air that is being cooled. This obviously reduces the
           | efficiency of the system the more it has to defrost and may
           | not be very comfortable to the users.
           | 
           | Cold weather heat pumps work better in drier climates due to
           | this as well because the lower the outside humidity the
           | slower frost will form on the outside coils.
           | 
           | Some cool weather heat pumps will have two compressor units
           | and fans and alternate between them with one defrosting the
           | other, there are many other tricks they are using to prevent
           | frost buildup and continue working above COP 1 far below
           | freezing.
        
         | stevemk14ebr wrote:
         | Even at 0F most modern heat pumps produce heat at a COP greater
         | than 2. This means you get twice the rate of heat generation
         | than a typical electric space heater. You are out of date, and
         | wrong.
        
         | discoutdynamite wrote:
         | Yep, you get what you pay for. They've started fielding systems
         | that will handle extremes much better, but you dont get that
         | kind of performance without tradeoffs. cascade systems, 200psi
         | r600, 450psi CO2, refrigeration systems are an engineering game
         | irl. They require much more experience to design, setup, and
         | charge correctly. The biggest issue I have with heat pumps for
         | life support heating/cooling, is they have so many single
         | points of failure its scary. Compressors can and will die if
         | anything else in the system goes too far out of the intended
         | cycle. Extreme weather moments or natural disasters can
         | physically break condensors, evaporators, and lines. Electrical
         | surges can and will fry computers, inverters, and controllers.
         | And almost none of those can be serviced on your own.
         | 
         | t. certified
        
         | RealityVoid wrote:
         | That is true only for air heat source. And even those work in
         | below freezing (the one I have works down to -20degC) but as
         | you say... with diminishing returns. Still, checking the
         | technical spec, it says that at -15 degC it heats up a tad
         | under 3x as much energy it uses. Pretty good I would say!
        
         | thinkcontext wrote:
         | You see this opinion a lot in the US, probably a result of Fox
         | and its ilk. As the article mentions, somehow Nordic countries
         | and Canada manage to use them. There's been good uptake in
         | places like Maine which is good news.
         | 
         | Its true retrofits are a tough sell and natural gas is really
         | cheap here. It would help if the US took insulation more
         | seriously. But for someone with oil or electric resistance its
         | definitely a big win.
        
         | joshvm wrote:
         | Below freezing is a concern that everyone has in Northern
         | Europe, particularly Scandinavia which has very high per-capita
         | adoption. The units might be harder to find in the US, but they
         | definitely exist.
         | 
         | If you can afford it, and have the land access, you could
         | install a ground-source pump which should benefit from more
         | stable temperatures. As with all heating/cooling, these systems
         | work best if your house is well insulated. That's a much bigger
         | problem in the UK, and I imagine the US too, especially in
         | places where solar gain requires a huge amount of A/C usage.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(23)00351-3
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Northern Europe tends to have a mild climate in the places
           | where people live. The Northern US is significantly south,
           | yet gets significantly colder winters. There are places in
           | Europe that get worse than the Northern US - but they are
           | places where few people live and so not normally what you are
           | talking about when talking about Europe.
           | 
           | Though good heat pumps are hard to find in the northern US.
           | Most installers only know of gas furnace + A/C, and don't
           | even try to install anything else. As you get farther south
           | in the US heat pumps become common, but there it rarely gets
           | much below freezing and so they don't need backup heating
           | systems at all.
        
         | AnthonyMouse wrote:
         | The backup system can be resistive heaters which are
         | inexpensive and low maintenance, and their lower efficiency
         | isn't that big a deal when you're only using them 2% of the
         | time.
        
       | galoisscobi wrote:
       | > we're waiting on people
       | 
       | Right on. I have a heat pump water heater and a heat pump heating
       | system in my HVAC. Getting those installed felt like swimming
       | upstream. Most contractors would try to dissuade me from them.
       | 
       | Luckily, I found a contractor who was skilled and knowledgeable
       | about heat pumps and rebates (back when govt thought climate
       | change was real). Very happy with my heat pump tech.
        
         | jbm wrote:
         | I had a similar problem too. Was unable to find anyone who was
         | willing to quote me on a heatpump when I was installing my air
         | conditioner. I assume it will be better in 5-10 years when I
         | have to replace them.
        
         | bamboozled wrote:
         | We have the same setup , we love it.
        
         | brendoelfrendo wrote:
         | I guess I lucked out; our house had a (very old) whole-home
         | (that is, ducted) heat pump system for heating and cooling when
         | we moved in. When it was time to replace, our local contractor
         | knew exactly what we needed. They even do mini-splits, had we
         | wanted one.
        
           | Glyptodon wrote:
           | Do newer ones somehow not need ducts?
           | 
           | Edit: (or so you mean mini splits?)
        
             | brendoelfrendo wrote:
             | No, no ductless magic without mini splits. I feel like a
             | lot of people refer to heat pump systems interchangeably
             | with ductless mini splits, so I wanted to clarify that.
             | Maybe that's just an issue with the people I speak with,
             | though.
        
         | ortusdux wrote:
         | I ended up self-installing my HP-WH. Professionals either tried
         | to talk me out of it like you described, or charged a premium
         | for the upgrade. My county has a rebate that allows for self-
         | installs. It was rather straight forward and ended up being
         | ~$700 in the end. The old unit I tore out took an extra
         | $350/year in electricity, so I've already broken even.
        
         | darth_avocado wrote:
         | I'm in California, I have two heat pumps installed. I can sum
         | up the problems as follows:
         | 
         | 1. They are EXPENSIVE. The equipment itself isn't that
         | expensive tbh but installation is pretty expensive. The
         | government subsidies have made sure that the contractors jack
         | up their own prices by as much.
         | 
         | 2. I end up paying more in utilities because electricity is
         | very expensive and heat pumps aren't nearly as good at heating
         | in the winters as old fashioned gas furnaces when it comes to
         | the cost.
         | 
         | I made the massive investment because I could and I eventually
         | want my house to run completely on rooftop solar as a way to
         | reduce my carbon footprint. But the cost is nowhere near mass
         | market adoption price range.
        
       | micromacrofoot wrote:
       | Our local installers seem to be taking advantage of the moment
       | quite a bit, install costs are have skyrocketed over the past
       | decade... double what I paid when the market started heating up.
       | But at least the techs seem more knowledgeable, when I first had
       | my system installed it seemed like they had no clue how they even
       | worked.
        
       | andrewvc wrote:
       | One other challenge is for existing homes a water heater may only
       | have a gas line running to it. Want a heat pump hot water heater?
       | Hiring the electrician alone, not to mention potentially ripping
       | up walls will ruin any economic advantage.
        
         | atrus wrote:
         | A possible challenge, yes, but there exist 1500w, standard
         | outlet hpwh, and it's a lot less common to not have _any_ power
         | near a water heater.
        
           | quickthrowman wrote:
           | A 1500W electric water heater would be painful to use in a
           | home. A typical 30-60 gallon EWH is 6kW.
           | 
           | And for the record, every single natural gas water heater is
           | connected to 120V power for the ignition circuit.
        
             | SigmundA wrote:
             | a 1500W heat pump water heater with a COP around 3 will put
             | 5500 watts of heat into the water.
             | 
             | My Rheem hybrid 220v heat pump water heater only has a 500w
             | compressor but puts 1500-2000 watts of heat into the water
             | pulling it from the hot garage.
             | 
             | I have the choice to run it in high demand mode which will
             | run both the heat pump and electric 4500w element for
             | around 6kw of heat into the water if I need fast recovery.
        
             | harshreality wrote:
             | I think this is right...
             | 
             | kwatts_effective [kJ/s] * heating_time_minutes [min] * 60
             | [s/min] * COP = 4.184 [kJ/kg/K] * (T1-T0) [K] *
             | gallon_capacity [gal] * 3.785 [L/gal] * 1 [kg/L]
             | 
             | 6.6 kW, for... COP 4, T1-T0 = 30 [K] (lower value for warm
             | climate), allowable 30 minute heating time, 50 gallon
             | capacity. A cold climate could double that power
             | requirement, or alternatively double the heating time.
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | It's not uncommon for a gas heater to have an always on
             | pilot.
        
         | underbluewaters wrote:
         | This was a major barrier for me. I had to replace an existing
         | natural, tanked gas water heater. Ultimately I just bought a
         | $750 replacement because I could easily swap it out myself.
         | Installing a heat pump would have involved an electrician to
         | install a new circuit, and possibly other changes. While there
         | were some 120v models available locally, they all had pretty
         | bad reviews. So I would have paid a couple thousand dollars
         | more. Maybe I could break even over 10 years paying less for
         | gas but that seemed like a poor use of funds.
        
       | nsxwolf wrote:
       | When I needed a new air conditioner I looked into heat pumps. 3x
       | the price.
        
         | wffurr wrote:
         | That's crazy. It's a reversing valve.
         | 
         | But you might also be comparing multi-stage variable load DC
         | heat pumps with single stage air conditioners and not an
         | actually equivalent air conditioner.
        
           | jjtheblunt wrote:
           | or local sellers are incentivized profitably to push old
           | technology air conditioners?
        
         | prlambert wrote:
         | That seems really weird, the only real difference is a
         | reversing valve that costs a couple bucks. A heat pump is an
         | AC, it just can be run backwards to produce heating as well. In
         | cooling it's literally the same thing.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | I know, but I don't make the price lists.
        
           | thinkcontext wrote:
           | I'm no expert but the difference in the real world is more
           | than that (though am doubtful about 3x the price) . The
           | delta-T between heating and cooling is significantly greater
           | in most places so you need a bigger system. You also need
           | things like the ability to de-ice.
        
         | supportengineer wrote:
         | That's the _upfront_ price. What about the total cost of
         | ownership (TCO)?
        
       | mithr wrote:
       | Electricity costs are a big factor in this, imo.
       | 
       | Rates for my northeast town increased by ~25% in 2024 and are
       | going up by another ~10% this year. It's a hard sell to spend a
       | large amount of up-front money (even after rebates, which
       | _decreased_ this year) to convert to a system that will cost you
       | more than you pay today, and may not work as well in cold weather
       | (every heat pump company I talked to suggested keeping my
       | existing gas heating in place and automatically switching to it
       | when it gets cold enough).
       | 
       | I was also told that the electrical grid in my area is having
       | difficulty keeping up with the push towards heat pumps, which
       | increase load exactly on the coldest nights of the year, when you
       | need heating most.
        
         | VWWHFSfQ wrote:
         | A heat pump just makes no sense whatsoever for me in my
         | northeast town. The electric bill alone would outpace the old
         | propane bill, not to mention installation.
         | 
         | And it won't even work during some of the coldest winter weeks
         | when you _really_ need it to work.
         | 
         | Maybe I would consider it if I was in, like, Nevada or
         | somewhere.
        
       | blahedo wrote:
       | People are reluctant to install them because they _don 't work_
       | as well as the good old boilers we'd be replacing. I'm not saying
       | they can't, and I'm not saying that there are zero models out
       | there that work. But in practice, a lot of us that have
       | interacted with heat pumps have the specific experience that they
       | get anemic as the temperature goes down and eventually become
       | unable to do much of anything.
       | 
       | I live in the mid-Atlantic (US) climate zone, where it's
       | certainly not as cold as the north but definitely goes well below
       | freezing regularly for several months of the year. The place I've
       | lived for 15 years had a heat pump and a (oil) boiler with
       | radiators, and when it was below 40degF (~5degC) I had to switch
       | to the radiators. It's because it's old, everybody told me,
       | modern heat pumps are better! So last year when both systems
       | needed repairs at the same time, I not-entirely-willingly
       | switched to a brand-new 2024-model heat pump. It absolutely could
       | not keep up when the temperature was freezing until they came
       | back and installed resistive heat strips for low temperature---
       | these seem to be a fancy version of the heating elements in a
       | space heater or a toaster. They do not seem to be particularly
       | efficient. And to the extent that my "heat pump system" does now
       | more or less keep the house adequately warm, if not as
       | comfortable as the radiators always could, it's not solely due to
       | the heat pump, but the other stuff they had to put in because the
       | heat pump couldn't keep up.
       | 
       | My experience is far from unique. Maybe it's that they only
       | install the good ones in farther-north locations! Maybe it's that
       | the good ones are just way more expensive! I'm perfectly prepared
       | to believe the factual statements about the physics and the tech.
       | But if we're talking about perception and "why aren't more people
       | looking to install heat pumps", it's because lots of people have
       | experiences like the above, and _that_ is what the industry needs
       | to work on.
        
         | lbotos wrote:
         | What brand and was it sized for winter load?
         | 
         | Im in NY, 6 heads across 3 floors with 2 heads per outdoor
         | unit. 2500sf covered.
         | 
         | Mitsubishi h2i (i think im on my phone). Get plenty warm in the
         | winter as my sole heat source. I could have gotten smaller
         | outdoor units and had resistive backup but I didn't want that.
        
         | maxerickson wrote:
         | How is the insulation in the house? Poor insulation and an
         | undersized system will be a bad experience regardless of the
         | heat source.
        
           | baggy_trough wrote:
           | It wasn't a bad experience before, but now it is, because of:
           | new heat pump
        
             | maxerickson wrote:
             | Well what capacity does each system have?
             | 
             | That they came back and added resistive heating suggests
             | your contractor may not have been too worried about sizing
             | the system correctly in the first place.
        
         | prlambert wrote:
         | Yes this is actually the worst - when open minded people get a
         | heat pump for "the right reasons" and then have buyer's
         | remorse. Completely backfires the transition. Do you have a
         | ducted or ductless heat pump? Sounds like ducted, and if so
         | that might be part of it too. The air cools down in the
         | ductwork and if that's not accounted for - i.e. you reuse
         | ductwork that was meant for a furnace - you run into issues
         | like this. And you also need a cold climate heat pump.
         | 
         | (disclosure/transparency I'm the founder of Quilt, a ductless
         | heat pump manufacturer)
        
         | WorldMaker wrote:
         | The strength of your heat pump shouldn't be outside surface
         | temperature, but underground aquifer temperature. Those two
         | temperatures are related but not as directly as they seem. A
         | good aquifer in certain cavernous regions of the US might stay
         | about 55 degF year round, regardless of outside surface
         | temperature. 55 degF is still below what a lot of people want
         | their home to be year round so a heat pump still has to
         | supplement heat somehow in winters (or radiators or what have
         | you), but a "free" boost to 55 degF is still a better starting
         | place than 20 or 40 degF outside temperature.
         | 
         | I don't think latitude is a factor in how efficient a heat pump
         | you can find, I think the type geography under you feet is
         | (probably where "interior" regions probably have more luck than
         | coastal regions), combined with how well regulated or
         | unregulated your area's aquifer generally is (things like
         | nearby wells and industrial water dumping will effect aquifer
         | levels and temperatures). (Maybe not enough heat pump
         | proponents realize that you only have good, cheap heat pumps if
         | you have a powerful EPA and other Water protection groups
         | fighting the good fight in your region.)
        
           | estimator7292 wrote:
           | You're talking about geothermal heat pumps which are _far_
           | less common than air-to-air heat pumps because they are _far_
           | more expensive.
           | 
           | These are entirely disjoint concepts.
        
         | jcalvinowens wrote:
         | The radiators might make you feel warmer despite not actually
         | making the air in the room warmer: the black body radiation
         | from the big warm radiators affects your perception of warmth
         | in a not insignificant way.
        
         | estimator7292 wrote:
         | Resistive heat strips are what all electric furnaces use. It's
         | just a bunch of coils of nichrome heating wire. The efficiency
         | of a resistive heater is basically 100%. One Watt of
         | electricity in gives you one watt of heat out.
         | 
         | The mistake people make is assuming a heat pump can do
         | everything by itself anywhere in any climate. If you have cold
         | winters, you need a dedicated furnace to supplement the heat
         | pump.
         | 
         | I say supplement because while an electric furnace is near 100%
         | efficient at turning electricity into heat, a heat pump can be
         | far more than 100% efficient. And that's the crucial detail: a
         | heat pump _can_ give you more heat per Watt than a resistive
         | heater when outside temperatures are warm enough.
        
         | amarant wrote:
         | This is such a weird tale to hear. I heat my 2 story 147m2
         | house in Sweden with a single heat pump and it's downright cosy
         | down to -10C. I have noticed that my office, which is located
         | at the furthest possible place from the heatpump, tends to get
         | a bit chilly when outdoors temperatures fall below -10degc.
         | usually a blanket is enough to keep me toasty, but on the rare
         | occasion that it gets real cold (below about -15degc), I have a
         | fireplace to save the day. That fireplace actually gets used
         | more for the cozyness of a fire than it does for actual need of
         | heating, but it does help on the worst days of Scandinavian
         | winter.
         | 
         | All this to say: if your pump can't handle +5degc, I wonder if
         | you got scammed or if there are other factors at play? Is your
         | house insulated at all? Do you keep your windows open
         | throughout winter? Your experience is so different from mine
         | it's hard to believe we're even talking about the same
         | technology!
        
         | ssuds wrote:
         | I just wrote a big thread yesterday responding to someone with
         | similar concerns to yours (https://bsky.app/profile/shreyassudh
         | akar.com/post/3m3w3nra2h...). Copying it here if it's helpful
         | to other folks. FWIW, the challenges you are facing seem to be
         | grounded in bad design and application, which happens more than
         | it should and really sucks. We need to move the bar much higher
         | for the contractors installing heat pumps. Here's what I wrote
         | on that thread:
         | 
         | This is why contractor & homeowner education are so so so
         | important to get this energy transition right! I always hate to
         | see reviews like this from folks that have installed a heat
         | pump.
         | 
         | It's almost always a combo of poorly communicated expectations
         | & installer issues.
         | 
         | A few thoughts...
         | 
         | 1) "Air doesn't come out hot" is a common complaint. It's by
         | design! You don't need scalding hot air to have a comfortable
         | space. If you're targeting a 70 degree setpoint, even 80 degree
         | air will get you there eventually. Heat pumps work best when
         | you let them run - they soak the space with heat.
         | 
         | Your furniture, walls, floors all equalize in temp and radiate
         | heat. A totally different form of comfort than standing in
         | front of a vent that blows hot air at you for 5 minutes and
         | then shuts off!
         | 
         | 2) AC doesn't reduce humidity as well. Unfortunately, this is a
         | classic problem with oversized heat pumps. The key to
         | dehumidification is runtime. A well sized system will run for
         | longer, which will pull the humidity out of the space. If the
         | system is too big, it'll cycle on and off & not dehumidify.
         | 
         | Your contractor should be do load sizing calculations to
         | determine the size of your heat pump, not using rules of thumb
         | or matching the size of the existing equipment! The very best
         | contractors use performance based load calcs, where they look
         | at your past energy bills to size your new system.
         | 
         | 3) Supplemental heat runs a lot - this SUCKS. Electric
         | resistance heat is really expensive to run. It really should be
         | something that comes on for emergencies, if ever. Definitely
         | not regularly.
         | 
         | Many contractors set the temperature where the supplemental
         | heat kicks on way too high. You could be running the heat pump
         | (which is way more efficient) to a much lower temperature, but
         | it'll switch to expensive aux heat instead. Fortunately, the
         | fix to this is simple - just a thermostat setting.
         | 
         | In other cases, they'll install a cheaper mild climate heat
         | pump in a truly cold climate. This might save money up front,
         | but it'll kill you in operating costs when you're paying 4x as
         | much as you could be in the middle of winter to heat your home.
         | The lowest bid could cost you in the long run!
         | 
         | PS - this homeowner later chimed in that swapping the
         | thermostat helped reduce their electricity bill roughly
         | $30/month! A lot of heat pump issues actually boil down to a
         | poorly configured system. Choosing the right contractor is
         | probably the single most important decision you'll make when
         | you get a heat pump installed.
        
         | mrguyorama wrote:
         | Well
         | 
         | Mitsubishi sells heat pumps that produce 14kw of heat output
         | all the way down to 5f at a COP of 2.3.
         | 
         | Resistive heat has a COP of 1, by definition.
         | 
         | Do you know the size of your oil burner? It's likely over 20kw
         | output.
         | 
         | It's not that pumping heat cannot work sufficiently at cold
         | temperatures, it's that you are expecting the electric car
         | rated 100 horsepower to go as fast as the gas car rated at 300
         | horsepower.
         | 
         | An oil burner sized to the same output as the heat pump _also_
         | would not keep up.
         | 
         | If you installed two of those Mitsubishi heat pumps (which
         | would require two independent 240v circuits), you would be at
         | 28kw output and would not need resistive heat strips. These
         | units also claim 75% rated capacity at -13f so that would be
         | about 21kw of heat output even when very very cold.
         | 
         | If your resistive heat strips activate at any point other than
         | extreme weather events or emergencies, your "system" is not
         | sized properly. They are a massive waste of power and money.
         | 
         | A big part of the problem is that the contractors who are
         | essentially the point of sale for these systems are just
         | obscenely dumb about them. They will sell you utterly
         | undersized units or sell units that aren't rated for cold, as
         | well as just install things so poorly that they drain
         | condensate into your walls and cause mold issues. They had
         | similar problems with Oil burners, but at least those they
         | tended to upsell bigger systems so their ignorance didn't
         | matter. They seem very bad at doing the planning or design
         | required to actually spec out a system, so you have to be your
         | own engineer.
         | 
         | >and that is what the industry needs to work on.
         | 
         | I don't know how the industry is supposed to force contractors
         | to read their very very clear documentation, or follow the very
         | clear instructions (of boiler manufacturers no less) of "You
         | must measure heat load to accurately size a heat appliance".
        
       | Glyptodon wrote:
       | I live in a heat pump only house and the only thing I don't
       | really love are mid summer electric bills, but I think that'd
       | basically be the same with a dedicated AC. In my climate heat is
       | more nice than complete necessity and usually only spikes bills
       | if there are true hard freezes.
       | 
       | I will say, they seem to have gotten more expensive. It took
       | about $10k to replace ours (it was over 20 years old and
       | replacing coolant+fixing was quoted at nearly half that). Even
       | though research suggested it could be more like a $6.5 to $7.5k
       | cost, it was hard to even get people quoting in a timely manner,
       | let alone getting any kind of a deal.
        
       | prlambert wrote:
       | Cool to see a Heat Pump article near the top of HN! I'm the
       | founder/CEO of Quilt (https://www.quilt.com/), which is mentioned
       | in the article, and a decade+ daily reader of this fine site. At
       | Quilt we've run the Nest playbook for ductless heat pumps as our
       | first product. The plan is to do what Tesla did for automotive to
       | the built environment infrastructure category (HVAC, plumbing,
       | etc) and create the first major American manufacturer in a
       | ~century.
       | 
       | The article has bullet #1 in problems to solve as "Contractors
       | who default to what they know." This was one of my founding
       | hypotheses to and it turns out I was wrong, this was the hardest
       | won learning yet at Quilt. We originally were fully vertically
       | integrated and had our own installation force because of this
       | reason - we wanted to solve all the big problems, thought
       | contractors were one of them, and so had to become a contractor.
       | But we quickly saw we were getting in the way of our own mission
       | to accelerate the energy transition (because we had far far more
       | demand than we could scale operations to reach it). So in March
       | we (initially cautiously) switched partnering with existing
       | contractors and I have been _delighted_ by the industry
       | reception. There are so so many existing contractors who want
       | modern tech and see working with us as a breath of fresh air. I
       | definitely sold them short and in retrospect it was naive and
       | even a little elitist.
       | 
       | Happy to answer anything more. Also I'd be remiss if I didn't
       | mention that we're growing super fast and just posted an Embedded
       | Software Engineer role: https://job-
       | boards.greenhouse.io/quilt/jobs/4952684007 :)
        
         | ssuds wrote:
         | Hey Paul! Good to see ya on here. I'm in a Facebook group of
         | small HVAC contractors, and recently there was a conversation
         | about who is installing heat pumps vs traditional ACs and
         | furnaces. I was thrilled to see that most were saying that they
         | are moving a lot of their business toward heat pumps. Of
         | course, there were a few that were stuck in their ways and were
         | "gas or die" type people, but it's exciting to see the ship
         | slowly starting to turn. There are more and more heat pump
         | forward contractors coming online every day, and it's great
         | that we can team up with folks like you pushing the hardware
         | forward. There is so much work to deploy these systems, and
         | winning is going to look like all of us working together!
        
       | commandersaki wrote:
       | Is Heat Pump the same as what Australian's would call a Split
       | System?
        
         | ssuds wrote:
         | Yes! Also often referred to as "Reverse Cycle Air Conditioning"
         | in Australia
        
         | estimator7292 wrote:
         | Split system is a common term that covers both heat pumps and
         | traditional AC systems. It has to do with the physical setup,
         | not the theory of operation.
         | 
         | A heat pump specifically is an AC system that can run in
         | reverse: moving heat from outside to inside.
        
       | bluGill wrote:
       | When I replaced my furnace a couple years back I asked for a heat
       | pump - a previous house had it and it worked great. Turns out my
       | contractor didn't ask the right questions and so mine only works
       | to 25F - it still outputs heat below that, but not enough to keep
       | my house warm and so I use the backup furnace a lot more than I
       | want to.
       | 
       | A previous house the heat pump was sized to work to 14F. They
       | make them that will work down to -25F, but since it gets to -30f
       | where I live (about once every 10 years, but that is enough) we
       | need a backup system so is probably isn't worth getting a system
       | sized to as cold as possible.
       | 
       | Ground source heat pumps are a common option in rural areas -
       | they cost a lot to install ($50k - and this is the cheapest
       | version that needs a lot of land thus rural areas). They are
       | likely to pay off if you live in the same house for 50 years, but
       | the initial upfront costs are high (you do get a house worth $10k
       | more than other heat option). Worth looking into if you are young
       | and have reason to think you will live in the same house for 50
       | years.
        
       | quickthrowman wrote:
       | It's very hard to say whether heat pumps are cheaper than NG for
       | heating. I pay about $0.25 per 100k BTUs which is about 3kWh.
       | 3kWh costs about 50 cents. As long as the COP is above 2, it's
       | cheaper to _run_ the heat pump.
       | 
       | Once you factor in an electrician and pipefitter for installing a
       | heat pump, plus the cost of the heat pump, refrigerant, and
       | furnace coil, I'd imagine you lose money in the long run.
       | 
       | If you then additionally include the strain on the grid from all
       | these new data centers without enough generation capacity, I'll
       | stick with natural gas for heating air and water.
        
         | SigmundA wrote:
         | Its not hard to say at all, the math can be done pretty easily
         | based on your local electric and gas rates, and most people who
         | go for a heat pump already need an air conditioner for summer.
         | 
         | The math actually works out in many places unless you have
         | cheap gas and expensive electricity. Its also better then to
         | burn the gas at a power plant at 60% efficiency then 300-400%
         | efficiency at the heat pump than pipe and burn the NG at 80%
         | efficiency in your furnace.
        
       | SigmundA wrote:
       | Recently went with heat pump water heater and cloths dryer, very
       | significant energy savings and they both work great using around
       | 1/3 the energy.
       | 
       | Most of my energy is for HVAC cooling in the south and that is
       | already a heat pump. The house is well insulated and also have
       | solar so along with the water heater and dryer I am around net
       | zero in mid summer and and now that temperature is more mild I am
       | producing much more than using even with one EV as well.
       | 
       | It really nice to have an all electric house along with at least
       | one car and a large solar backup system I am pretty self
       | contained and don't really have to change anything if grid goes
       | down.
        
       | TimTheTinker wrote:
       | Nearly 2 years ago, we had a small tornado come through, taking
       | out our electricity for a week. During that time, it was snowy
       | and the outdoor temperature was well below freezing (it reached
       | about -10degC (12degF) at night).
       | 
       | Keeping my family warm was a real struggle that week. The next
       | spring, I went to Costco and bought a big tri-power generator and
       | wired up a generator interlock on the electric panel. Now if we
       | lose power, we can run the natural gas furnace & blower with no
       | problems. I can also power the generator from my home's natural
       | gas supply instead of making frequent trips for gasoline.
       | 
       | So I'd say _heck no_ to swapping the natural gas furnace for a
       | heat pump. I 'd much rather use natural gas to power both the
       | generator and the furnace/blower than risk needing more
       | electricity to keep my family warm than my setup can handle.
        
       | TimTheTinker wrote:
       | All this push to electrify everything makes me nervous, as it
       | effectively centralizes a lever that someone evil enough could
       | use to coerce the general public in unsavory ways.
       | 
       | I'm doubly suspicious of areas that combine mass-electrification
       | with reducing availability of the most reliable alternate source
       | of electricity (i.e. generators). California in particular is
       | pushing to make generators increasingly hard to obtain.
        
         | supportengineer wrote:
         | >> someone evil enough
         | 
         | There's so much evil being demonstrated today, in real time,
         | that we can't dismiss this any more, it must be seriously
         | considered.
        
       | bethekidyouwant wrote:
       | I moved from gas boiler to electric years ago and would like to
       | move to an electric heat pump hybrid, but it doesn't exist.
       | Moment lost.
        
       | supportengineer wrote:
       | I'm thankful to live in the Bay Area. One time we took a trip in
       | the dead of winter. We turned off our heat completely. We were
       | gone for a week. The coldest it got inside the house was 55
       | degrees.
        
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