[HN Gopher] The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of
       Alfred Nobel 2025
        
       Author : k2enemy
       Score  : 119 points
       Date   : 2025-10-13 11:23 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nobelprize.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nobelprize.org)
        
       | GolfPopper wrote:
       | "Unlike the Nobel Prizes for Medicine, Chemistry, Physics,
       | Literature and Peace, which were created by Nobel in his 1896
       | will and first awarded in 1901, the Economics Prize was conceived
       | by Sweden's central bank in 1968 to mark its tricentenary and
       | first awarded a year later."
       | 
       | https://web.archive.org/web/20071014012248/http://www.theloc...
        
         | nabla9 wrote:
         | HN discussions are predictable:
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45566804
        
           | huhkerrf wrote:
           | Oh, there's much more, even: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRang
           | e=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
        
           | stuaxo wrote:
           | Sure, but if they keep awarding this non Nobel prize with a
           | deliberately confusing name people will keep bringing it up.
           | 
           | The other solution would he some equivilent of a community
           | note for it every year, it seems like things work as is
           | though.
        
           | lysace wrote:
           | I mentally place economic sciences sort of halvway between
           | e.g. physics and social sciences on some imagined scientific
           | rigidity scale.
           | 
           | They seem rigid enough to be useful, but I hope they can be
           | done better. Perhaps using better simulation tools.
        
             | tovej wrote:
             | Economics _is_ a social science, and a politicized one at
             | that. Sociology is more rigid than economics when it comes
             | to validation of theories and choice of methods (statistics
             | vs. mathematical models filled with assumptions).
             | Economics, especially neoclassical economics, has a serious
             | problem in prediction quality, a physics theory would have
             | been abandoned by now if it was so bad at predicting real-
             | life phenomena as the neoclassical school of economics is.
        
               | zwaps wrote:
               | Define neoclassical economics beyond its use in the
               | blogossphere
        
               | tovej wrote:
               | It's a school of economics that became dominant in the
               | 60s, it emphasises free market dynamics, much like the
               | classical school, and especially focuses on consumption
               | and optimizing economic actors, these actors are a very
               | simple (and unrealistic) model of consumers. They also
               | neglect production as an aspect of the economy.
               | 
               | Fun fact: The neoclassical economic school managed to
               | remove the word "political" from "political economy" at
               | the turn of the 20th century.
        
               | username332211 wrote:
               | If sociology is so much more rigorous, why aren't
               | sociologists invading the economic field? Surely they can
               | use their rigorous statistics to produce papers on
               | economic matters and put the entire field to shame?
               | 
               | If anything, we're seeing the opposite results, where
               | economists publish influential papers demographics, crime
               | and social structure.
               | 
               | "When dealing with humans, linear regression is going to
               | be good enough" is a huge assumption to make.
        
               | tovej wrote:
               | Are you saying linear regression = statistics? Linear
               | regression is something you learn in your first class,
               | it's hardly ever the main model used.
               | 
               | And if you're going to claim that economists are
               | publishing influential papers in other fields - and
               | especially if you're claiming that they're doing so in an
               | unprecedented way, with no inter-disciplinary
               | collaboration - please provide some examples. And if
               | you're thinking of Freakonomics, know that no researcher
               | takes Freakonomics seriously, and neither should you.
               | 
               | As for sociologists "invading" economics, they sort of
               | are. Economics and sociology have quite a bit of overlap,
               | and researchers from the two fields often collaborate.
               | And any group researching economic phenomena, even an
               | inter-disciplinary one involving sociologists, would be
               | identified as economists, not sociologists, by people
               | reading their work. Although David Graeber, an
               | anthropologist, did write an excellent book on economic
               | phenomena in "Debt: the first 5000 years", and it has
               | done quite well. You could say that it's "influential".
               | 
               | Unfortunately, neoclassical economics also has wide
               | political support among the people it benefits: wealthy
               | people and institutions, e.g. banks. Which also means
               | they get bankrolled (hah) much more than other social
               | scientists, which means they get preferential treatment.
               | E.g., this very "Nobel prize" in economy that this theead
               | is about is funded by a bank.
               | 
               | The force to change economics qould have to come from
               | within economics, perhaps from behavioural economics, or
               | new Keynesian economics (the first one seems more
               | promising), or even from movements like degrowth or
               | circular economics. You can't expect a sociologist to fix
               | a different field, and that wasn't the point. The point
               | was simply that sociology doesn't suffer this
               | embarassment because they are not burdened by ideological
               | pressure backed by monies interest.
        
               | lanfeust6 wrote:
               | This is completely false. The opposite is true. Economics
               | had drastically improved reproduction over decades.
        
               | tovej wrote:
               | Please provide some proof that neoclassical economics has
               | done this.
        
               | lysace wrote:
               | I mean, I think the onus is on you to prove the opposite.
        
               | tovej wrote:
               | Not really, they're claiming a positive, I'm claiming a
               | negative. The burden of proof is on them. The failure of
               | neoclassical economics has also been widely discussed,
               | especially following 2008, so it's a claim about the
               | status quo.
               | 
               | But since you asked, here's an accessible overview: https
               | ://francescosyloslabini.info/2016/06/01/neoclassical-
               | ec...
        
           | thrance wrote:
           | The issue with this prize isn't that economics is not a real
           | science. Nobel prizes are primarily vulgarization and
           | communication tools, and as such are inhenrently political.
           | The Sveriges Riksbank is piggy-backing off the popularity of
           | Nobel Prizes to advocate for a certain vision ( _their_
           | vision) of economic orthodoxy. It is overwhelmingly awarded
           | to white western men, who, more relevantly, all share an
           | anglocentric neoliberalist vision of economics. This, I hope,
           | we are allowed to take issue with.
           | 
           | EDIT: apparently not. I would rather you explain to me why
           | than downvote mindlessly.
        
             | AtlasBarfed wrote:
             | Well you are on an anglo-centric neoliberalist imperialist
             | site filled with people that are economic beneficiaries of
             | that. Basic economic game theory that you'd be downvoted.
        
               | lanfeust6 wrote:
               | Extreme poverty rates have been plummeting precisely
               | because East Asian countries became economic
               | beneficiaries. The rest of the world operates on the same
               | principles.
        
             | underlipton wrote:
             | It's a, "They hate him because they told the truth,"
             | situation. Frankly, it applies to the Peace Prize as well,
             | but this one has an even more naked agenda. It would be a
             | _disservice_ not to mention its history every time it 's
             | brought up, because it is ever-salient to any discussion of
             | the merit of the winners.
        
             | lanfeust6 wrote:
             | White western men are no more represented in Economics than
             | other hard sciences, and concensus in Economics is no
             | different in East Asia and the rest of the world excepting
             | the authoritarian Socialist experiments.
        
               | andrepd wrote:
               | There's no "consensus" in economics, let alone.
        
               | lanfeust6 wrote:
               | That's nonsensical. There is overwhelming consensus over
               | many things, e.g. tariffs.
        
               | StopDisinfo910 wrote:
               | Of course, there is consensus in economics.
               | 
               | It's a field which is mostly interested in models and
               | anyone can agree that a model is consistant and implies
               | surprising things even if they think the hypotheses it
               | makes don't faithfully represent reality.
               | 
               | It's endlessly fascinating to me how some people will
               | happily disparage economics while having very little idea
               | of what it's actually about.
        
               | 331c8c71 wrote:
               | Modelling isn't the higher intellectual pursuit it's made
               | out to be. Imo designing theoretical models post-hoc to
               | "support" a desired conclusion is not unheard of in
               | econ/finance.
        
               | thrance wrote:
               | I don't see what point you're trying to make. Do you mean
               | to claim that the Sveriges Riksbank is unbiased in who it
               | chooses to give their price to? Unless you believe that
               | 90% of economists come from the US (and the remaining 10%
               | from the UK), you should take issue with this list: https
               | ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Memorial_Prize_l..
               | .
               | 
               | > concensus in Economics
               | 
               |  _That 's what I was talking about_. This "consensus" is
               | completely made-up and propped up by, among others, the
               | Sveriges Riksbank. To the point that there are people
               | like you who feel they should defend them against the
               | evil "authoritarian Socialist", because of course, as we
               | all know, that's all there is besides Neoliberalism. I
               | sincerly hope you consider broadening your horizons,
               | maybe start by Thomas Piketty's work:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Piketty
        
               | lanfeust6 wrote:
               | > I don't see what point you're trying to make. Do you
               | mean to claim that the Sveriges Riksbank is unbiased in
               | who it chooses to give their price to?
               | 
               | I made no such claim. I don't take issue with that list:
               | the US by far leads in number of high-profile economic
               | researchers, high publication output, large number of
               | employed economists.
               | 
               | Just as Mathematics is still Mathematics in the rest of
               | the world, the broad perspective on Economics is not
               | meaningfully different in the rest of the world. Even if
               | it originated in the anglo-sphere, it's global. That's
               | the point I made.
               | 
               | > This "consensus" is completely made-up and propped up
               | by, among others, the Sveriges Riksbank.
               | 
               | Leading Economists globally find consensus on all manner
               | of policy issues. Many academic papers model the effects
               | of tariffs on prices, welfare, and the consensus is that
               | tariffs generally harm consumers. Surveys conducted on
               | Economists show strong consensus there.
               | 
               | > because of course, as we all know, that's all there is
               | besides Neoliberalism
               | 
               | It's not a long list. Even Social Democracy darlings of
               | Europe are effectively just Liberal with a bit more
               | spending. Incidentally, France is in deep trouble because
               | of this. Their public spending as a % of GDP far exceeds
               | peers.
               | 
               | > maybe start by Thomas Piketty's work:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Piketty
               | 
               | Piketty is decidedly heterodox, and I've read Capital in
               | the 21st Century, though not his latest which as I
               | understand revisits much of the same. Wealth taxes have
               | been tried in several countries including Austria, and
               | promptly dropped. That's because they do not work well.
               | It's difficult to implement and the returns just aren't
               | good.
        
           | b00ty4breakfast wrote:
           | >This critique sets the stage for a more political debate.
           | 
           | oh spare me. Social sciences are inherently political.
           | They've always been political and they will always be
           | political. Denying merely makes it worse. that's how you end
           | up with the racialist anthropology of the 19th and early 20th
           | centuries.
           | 
           | Don't hang a picture of a dog turd on your front door and cry
           | about all the people pointing it out.
        
           | em500 wrote:
           | I'll add the obligatory Dilbert take: https://verisoeconomica
           | .wordpress.com/2022/10/10/the-2022-no...
           | 
           | Sure, it's paid by the Swedish central bank instead of the
           | Nobel foundation, and it wasn't established by Alfred Nobel
           | himself. Nobody cares. Value of such awards depends entirely
           | on peer recognition, not on who pays or what exact labels
           | they carry. Selection for economics is done by the Royal
           | Swedish Academy of Sciences, like the other science awards.
        
             | notahacker wrote:
             | Yeah, "this isn't even a _real_ prize, it wasn 't selected
             | at a time when it wasn't considered a distinct academic
             | field by a benefactor concerned primarily about what his
             | obituary might say" is even more tedious than pointing out
             | that the Turing Award wasn't actually conceived by Alan.
             | Much better arguments about issues with things individual
             | Economic Nobel winners argued for than that...
        
             | AtlasBarfed wrote:
             | His descendants states that Nobel wouldn't have wanted a
             | prize in his name. He didn't like economics because it is
             | the science of greed.
             | 
             | "Nobody cares" gotcha. Greed never cares.
        
             | neilwilson wrote:
             | " it's paid by the Swedish central bank instead of the
             | Nobel foundation"
             | 
             | And those who pay the piper call the tune.
             | 
             | Hence the brand of 'economics' that gets the gong.
        
             | andrepd wrote:
             | Well, the thing is Economics is a very unique discipline.
             | It's not quite a science but also not merely philosophy.
             | Its object of study is affected by _the study itself_. It
             | 's very strange. That's why mutually exclusive economic
             | theories have won the Nobel prize!
        
           | belter wrote:
           | Predictable...but are those aholes wrong...? :-)
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44013692
           | 
           | Economics violates Popper demarcation criterion. Economic
           | theories can't be falsified because you can't run controlled
           | experiments on economies, rewind history, or isolate
           | variables.
           | 
           | When models fail, economists adjust assumptions ...
           | 
           | Unfalsifiable = Unscientific.
        
             | rtsil wrote:
             | Neither are litterature and peace.
        
               | belter wrote:
               | They are not pretending to be sciences.
        
             | atwrk wrote:
             | Do you think Poppers demarcation criterion is falsifiable?
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | Nice use of recursion...
        
               | belter wrote:
               | It is not falsifiable because it is not a hypothesis but
               | a framework for recognizing science.
               | 
               | Rejecting Popper for that is like rejecting reasoning
               | itself because you can't run a control experiment on
               | it...but then one turns into an economist...
        
             | IAmBroom wrote:
             | > When models fail, economists adjust assumptions ...
             | 
             | When models fail, physicist adjust hypotheses ...
        
               | belter wrote:
               | Physics can test those hypotheses under controlled
               | conditions...
        
               | RandomLensman wrote:
               | Not always/limited in some areas (astrophysics come to
               | mind where we, e.g., cannot (yet) create a star under
               | controlled conditions). Testing hypotheses or predictions
               | vs observations is also a valid method.
        
               | belter wrote:
               | Science is not about where you test hypotheses, but how.
               | Astrophysics builds falsifiable models and checks them
               | against reality like spectra, gravitational waves, etc...
               | When predictions fail, theories change.
               | 
               | If these were economists, they would check if their
               | equations match the economic universe they live in. :-)
               | Instead, they conclude the agents just "did not behave
               | rationally enough".
        
               | RandomLensman wrote:
               | Not about controlled conditions then necessarily.
               | 
               | Not really my experience with economics - a lot of
               | awareness of reality vs model (regardless of how
               | "beautiful" they are).
        
               | genericresponse wrote:
               | That's just not true. The models have real predictive
               | power, they just have limitations. Behavioral economics,
               | which tackles this frontier is still a growing field.
               | Thaler, Kahneman, and Taversky won the prize in 2017 for
               | building the bridge between economic theory and
               | individual decision-making.
               | 
               | At the risk of being inflammatory-- These arguments are
               | the equivalent of saying that Newton didn't really do
               | physics because his models of mechanics break down at
               | high enough speeds and small enough scales.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Physics can test those hypotheses under controlled
               | conditions_
               | 
               | I genuinely have no idea why so many commenters on _HN_
               | will spout nonsense based on high school curriculum with
               | the confidence of a PhD when it comes to economics, but
               | won't embarrass themselves in other fields.
               | 
               | Yes, economics--particularly microeconomics--is
               | constantly subject to experimentation. Macroeconomics is
               | closer to astronomy, in that models are developed, novel
               | data sources sought, old models tested and then validated
               | or rejected. Also like astronomy, or perhaps more
               | accurately fundamental physics, it's currently off in a
               | loop of DSGE optimizations which are mathematically
               | pretty for the field but not super interesting outside
               | it. (This work is not in that category.)
        
               | belter wrote:
               | That comparison collapses instantly. Physics has
               | invariants...Economics does not. You can't rerun the
               | economy under controlled conditions, so "experiments" are
               | mostly natural or quasi experiments...statistical
               | patchwork with fragile assumptions.
               | 
               | Macroeconomics isn't like astronomy :-) Stars don't
               | change behavior when you model them. Economies do. There
               | are no stable primitives, no conservation laws, just
               | shifting behavior and feedback loops.
               | 
               | DSGE models are equilibrium sandcastles calibrated to
               | past data. In physics that's failure while in macro it's
               | tenure.
               | 
               | Economics is interesting and sometimes useful but calling
               | it an experimental science is self-flattery.
               | "One thing we are not going to have, now or ever, is a
               | set  of models that forecasts sudden falls in the value
               | of financial assets."             -- Robert E. Lucas
               | "As a policy-maker during the crisis, I found the
               | available models of limited help. In fact, I would go
               | further: in the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by
               | conventional tools."             -- Jean-Claude Trichet -
               | https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2010/html/sp1011
               | 18.en.html           "How Conventional Wisdom Failed Us"
               | - https://youtu.be/c8LMWCko4d0?t=138
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _You can't rerun the economy under controlled
               | conditions, so "experiments" are mostly natural or quasi
               | experiments_
               | 
               | ...you can 't rerun the universe under controlled
               | experiments. That's the whole point of the "controlled"
               | part. It's an artificially isolated environment designed
               | to model a specific phenomenon.
               | 
               | If you want examples of thoroughly experimental economic
               | discipline, look to auction, bargaining and game theory.
               | 
               | > _Macroeconomics isn't like astronomy :-) Stars don't
               | change behavior when you model them. Economies do_
               | 
               | Stars don't change, but the ways we look at them do. This
               | sort of endogeneity in data collection and research
               | methods is a constant source of noise and errors in the
               | physical sciences.
               | 
               | You're correct in that it's _much_ more pronounced in
               | economics, since humans are agents. That puts boundaries
               | on how much one can predict. But that doesn 't make it
               | unknowable through the scientific method.
               | 
               | > _DSGE models are equilibrium sandcastles calibrated to
               | past data. In physics that's failure while in macro it's
               | tenure_
               | 
               | I'm not going to defend DSGE any more than I will string
               | theory. (I know a lot more about the former to be able to
               | properly critique it than I do the latter.)
               | 
               | > _Economics is interesting and sometimes useful but
               | calling it an experimental science is self-flattery_
               | 
               | I'm not an economist. But I apparently know more
               | economics than a lot of people who make confident
               | statements on this board about the field.
               | 
               | Several fields of economics are rigorously empirical.
               | Others are strictly observational. And others are total
               | nonsense. The fill of nonsense is higher than other
               | fields, but that's mostly due to the relevance of the
               | work. If the rise and fall of nations rode on the
               | spectral pattern of Sagittarius A*, you'd probably have a
               | lot of nonsense work around that, too.
        
               | yard2010 wrote:
               | Ha. Controlled conditions.
        
             | lanfeust6 wrote:
             | Argentina managed to save itself from hyperinflation by
             | drastically cutting spending. By your logic, this could not
             | be in the least bit predictable and inflation as a
             | phenomenon doesn't even matter.
             | 
             | Supposing it did was fairly predictable that not setting
             | money on fire would help recovery, what does it matter that
             | there is no controlled scientific experiment involved? Or
             | to put it another way, are there no facts to be gleaned
             | from data?
        
               | thrance wrote:
               | Argentina didn't manage shit, else they wouldn't have to
               | be bailed out by the Trump admin. This should come as a
               | surprise to no one, "General AnCap" may have artifically
               | and temporarily given the impression of good numbers by
               | destroying his country's public infrastructure, but this
               | is at the direct cost of the future. Now they're starting
               | to pay the price.
        
               | lanfeust6 wrote:
               | > Argentina didn't manage shit
               | 
               | You're deflecting. Curtailing inflation was an outcome of
               | policy. The U.S. had fuck-all to do with it. Unless
               | you're willing to acknowledge something so basic there's
               | nothing else to say to someone disinterested in good
               | faith discussion
        
               | genericresponse wrote:
               | Ehh... you're both wrong. Argentina ended 2024 with an
               | annual inflation rate close to 100%. That's significantly
               | lower, but still hyperinflation. It should be lower this
               | year, but how much is the question.
               | 
               | Whether that's maintainable long term is probably the
               | decisive judgement. Argentina has had many cycles of
               | hyperinflation, reset, hyperinflation again. The current
               | bailout is not exactly a positive indicator.
        
             | yard2010 wrote:
             | These are all people using made up words to throw shit on
             | other people.
        
         | moritz wrote:
         | And the story of how this came to be is absolutely wild. See
         | 
         | Mirowski, Philip. 2020. "The Neoliberal Ersatz Nobel Prize".
         | Pp. 219-254 in Nine Lives of Neoliberalism, edited by Dieter
         | Plehwe, Quinn Slobodian and Philip Mirowski. Verso. Fulltext:
         | https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/215796/1/Full-text-b...
        
       | JCM9 wrote:
       | Obligatory post that, despite common parlance to the contrary,
       | there is no "Nobel Prize in Economics."
       | 
       | That said, this is still a super prestigious award.
        
         | jacquesm wrote:
         | Such a post is definitely not obligatory.
        
         | Tor3 wrote:
         | And that's exactly why the title is "The Sveriges Riksbank
         | Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel". Not that
         | it's a "Nobel Prize".
        
       | btown wrote:
       | More detail on accomplishments in press release:
       | https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2025/pre...
       | 
       | Press conference: https://www.youtube.com/live/EajZObplJ8U
       | 
       | https://www.reuters.com/world/mokyr-aghion-howitt-win-2025-n... -
       | includes quotes from press conference, including commentary from
       | laureates on present geopolitical climate
        
       | jacquesm wrote:
       | That's a tiny article, but it does contain an interesting
       | passage: "for having identified the prerequisites for sustained
       | growth through technological progress" which is the core of the
       | reason the prize was awarded. I find it interesting to see
       | technological progress so tightly coupled to sustained growth and
       | I wonder if the implication is that growth will stop when
       | technological progress stagnates. Is there any proof to that
       | effect?
        
         | thrance wrote:
         | At first glance, "sustained growth" sounds like an oxymoron.
         | Nothing can grow forever, unless the growth asymptotically
         | approaches zero.
        
           | nathan_douglas wrote:
           | This page: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-
           | sciences/2025/pre... explains in more detail what they mean.
           | It's a pretty clean and effective explanation.
           | 
           | > Technology advances rapidly and affects us all, with new
           | products and production methods replacing old ones in a
           | never-ending cycle. This is the basis for sustained economic
           | growth, which results in a better standard of living, health
           | and quality of life for people around the globe.
           | 
           | > However, this was not always the case. Quite the opposite -
           | stagnation was the norm throughout most of human history.
           | Despite important discoveries now and again, which sometimes
           | led to improved living conditions and higher incomes, growth
           | always eventually levelled off.
           | 
           | ...
        
             | fnord77 wrote:
             | Stagnation is environmentally sustainable. Constant
             | creation-destruction cycles will ultimately deplete the
             | environment
        
               | lanfeust6 wrote:
               | Innovation is such that efficiency increase requires
               | fewer resources and land. Population growth is stagnating
               | and will peak in less than 100 years.
               | 
               | Neo-Malthusianism is as bunk as Malthusianism was
        
               | cassianoleal wrote:
               | > Innovation is such that efficiency increase requires
               | fewer resources and land.
               | 
               | ...to produce the same output. Growth requires greater
               | output though.
               | 
               | Just look at the timeline of energy consumption [0].
               | Either you're wrong and innovation requires more
               | resources, or you're right and there's no direct relation
               | between innovation and overall resource usage.
               | 
               | [0] https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-
               | consumption
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | The metric you're looking for is energy intensity of GDP
               | [1]. How much energy does each unit of GDP cost. It's
               | been going down, and it's lower in rich countries than
               | less developed ones. (Its material counterpart is
               | material intensity of GDP.)
               | 
               | [1] https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-energy/world-
               | energy-inte...
        
               | cassianoleal wrote:
               | Thanks, that's an interesting reference.
               | 
               | I'm not sure that's what I was looking for though. That's
               | unit consumption per GDP, so it may look stable or even
               | declining regardless of actual consumption of resources.
               | 
               | In a way, it indicates the potential for a more
               | sustainable living but unless it goes down by greater
               | amounts than GDP growth, it's still net positive
               | environmental damage.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _unless it goes down by greater amounts than GDP
               | growth, it 's still net positive environmental damage_
               | 
               | Sure. Link in population and living standards and you
               | start to get a toy model that dispels the notion that all
               | growth must be about consumption. (A palette of iPhones
               | represents growth from mainframes of equal mass and
               | energy consumption.)
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Stagnation is environmentally sustainable_
               | 
               | We _know_ this to be false given the number of
               | civilisations that depleted their soil due because they
               | didn't know (or care) about crop rotation. Stable-state
               | economies which nevertheless collapsed because they
               | missed a key technology.
        
             | mallowdram wrote:
             | There was more likely a series of 2K-4K golden ages
             | diffused across areas globally 5-1K BCE where stagnation
             | wasn't the rule.
             | 
             | We've probably yet to even come close to that eden-like
             | experience.
        
             | geysersam wrote:
             | > Technology advances rapidly and affects us all, with new
             | products and production methods replacing old ones in a
             | never-ending cycle. This is the basis for sustained
             | economic growth
             | 
             | since the end of the 19th century...
             | 
             | Am I missing something?
             | 
             | How can they assert that the current trajectory of economic
             | growth won't end in stagnation, like every other growth
             | spurt throughout history?
             | 
             | Sure, the economic growth of the last 150 years is
             | unprecedented in history. But so was the second most
             | significant period of economic growth before it stagnated.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _How can they assert that the current trajectory of
               | economic growth won 't end in stagnation, like every
               | other growth spurt throughout history?_
               | 
               | Straw man. Nobody argues this.
        
               | geysersam wrote:
               | > production methods replacing old ones in a _never-
               | ending_ cycle
               | 
               | > _sustained economic growth_
               | 
               | Is it really such an unreasonable reading?
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Is it really such an unreasonable reading?_
               | 
               | It's reasonable but unnecessarily reductive. Particulalry
               | when TFA is linked above.
        
           | lanfeust6 wrote:
           | The world/universe doesnt last forever either. That does not
           | say much. Unless you have reason to believe technilogical
           | innovation will end in a foreseeable future, growth will not
           | be expected to end in that timeline
        
           | IAmBroom wrote:
           | Nothing about "sustained" implies "forever". Sustained notes
           | at the symphony don't continue after the audience leaves.
        
             | creer wrote:
             | More usefully, constantly looking at "forever" while living
             | at human life time scales and engineering and scientific
             | progress time scales - is absurd.
        
         | dkural wrote:
         | There is two contributors to growth: increase in population,
         | and productivity gains. If tech adoption slows down and
         | population slows down, we go back to the historical norm of no
         | economic growth.
        
           | geysersam wrote:
           | Productivity gains don't only come from technological
           | progress. Accumulation of capital, such as infrastructure,
           | education, access to healthcare etc, also increase
           | productivity.
        
             | IAmBroom wrote:
             | Claiming "access to healthcare" is capital is a novel idea.
             | It's a social infrastructure. It doesn't directly lead to
             | production, any more than lunch breaks do.
             | 
             | Capital is not simply "anything that I can tie to improving
             | my work output".
        
               | paganel wrote:
               | If you view the humans actually producing stuff as human
               | capital, which many economists have done, then keeping
               | that (human) capital in decent enough form by allowing it
               | to have access to decent enough healthcare is a logical
               | step forward.
               | 
               | We could then go a step or two forward and posit that a
               | sick populace means a sick consumer class means reduced
               | demand for goods that generate growth, but those are just
               | details.
        
               | 1oooqooq wrote:
               | nobody does. which is ironic since root for capital is
               | latin for head count.
        
             | twoodfin wrote:
             | All healthcare beyond the village witch doctor was
             | technological progress at one time.
        
             | dkural wrote:
             | Of course I agree with this, but without technological
             | progress this "saturates" rapidly. Only long-term durable
             | productivity growth per unit of labor comes from technology
             | - i.e. better ways of doing stuff.
        
           | scythe wrote:
           | A somewhat unfair characterization of the historical norm.
           | Before the Italian Renaissance, history was marked by periods
           | of growth interleaved with periods of decline, in many cases
           | because a societal crisis caused a destructive regime to take
           | hold. For example, the Mongol conquests installed an
           | extractive regime that was soon replaced by the
           | ultraconservative Ming dynasty, which resulted in China's
           | progress stalling for some four centuries.
        
         | HSO wrote:
         | This is a persistent mythology of western economic history to
         | "cleanwash" the past and "explain" the present inequality (or
         | what was the present until recently)
         | 
         | Think about the components of all those innovations from the
         | past and if they would have been possible (to scale) without
         | violent and forcible extraction of resources from around the
         | globe, incl forced labor.
         | 
         | Think about when GDP was constructed and how, and from which
         | point stuff got counted into it (ie from which point in the
         | production chain it added to a country's gdp). If you take raw
         | materials X and Y from somewhere, by force and for cheap, then
         | make sth like a out of it and only count that topline, now you
         | have a big gdp, congrats.
         | 
         | Eg even the "US" was not even "settled" (forcible land
         | expansion) until the late 19th or early 20th century. So you
         | have a steady influx of cheap/free land to support a growing
         | population that keeps adding to the "gdp". Lo and behold, soon
         | after this dynamic stopped, financial bubble and bust ensues.
         | 
         | The main lesson for me is that progress and growth are
         | completely separate things/concepts. You can absolutely
         | progress without "growing" (bloating) your gdp, if you change
         | some things. You can absolutely regress while "growing"
         | (bloating) your gdp. Look at "US" today.
         | 
         | Chicken are coming home to roost. This is why first instinct of
         | Trump and his cohorts is now to expand again "US" borders. Go
         | back to extraction to "grow", since they are institutionally
         | and mentally incapable of progress without extraction. More
         | importantly, without "growth" the system as it is will
         | collapse. It behaves like a cancer that has close to killed its
         | host. It's over, and anyone who can see knows it on some level.
        
           | newyankee wrote:
           | May be progress is as simple as making energy very cheap,
           | ensuring a diverse manufacturing capability with most
           | efficient methods while making sure 1 or 2 inputs do not
           | bottleneck you.
           | 
           | Larger and bigger powers can control different parts of
           | 'supply chain' (for lack of a better word) and make it
           | difficult to progress without them getting a royalty. In
           | their minds they are justified as they made progress first
           | and others are simply copying their IP
        
           | addcommitpush wrote:
           | This is in line with Pommeranz (a western economic historian)
           | and most of the whole "Great divergence" litterature.
        
           | BurningFrog wrote:
           | The west didn't get rich from colonizing the world.
           | 
           | It got rich domestically through industrialism. Then the
           | newly rich countries went on to colonize the world, because
           | now they could. If and how much the colonies made them even
           | richer is debatable, but it was probably a net cost on
           | average.
           | 
           | This is one of several insights counter to "common sense"
           | that economists have figured out.
        
             | cess11 wrote:
             | There are scientists that reach quite different conclusions
             | from you.
             | 
             | https://www.jasonhickel.org/research
        
               | BurningFrog wrote:
               | Let me just add that the colonizing of the Americas in
               | the 1500s was of course unrelated to industrialism
               | emerging centuries later. Much of that was an accident of
               | immunology.
               | 
               | Note that industrialized countries without colonial
               | empires ended up at least as rich as the big European
               | colonial powers.
        
             | oa335 wrote:
             | > If and how much the colonies made them even richer is
             | debatable, but it was probably a net cost on average. This
             | is one of several insights counter to "common sense" that
             | economists have figured out.
             | 
             | I haven't heard this before, do you have sources where I
             | could learn more?
        
               | 1oooqooq wrote:
               | of course he doesn't because he just made it up.
               | 
               | he's probably grasping to "research" from before the 30s,
               | if even that, expect to ignore elites and focus on
               | average country gdp nonsense.
        
           | philipallstar wrote:
           | > Think about the components of all those innovations from
           | the past and if they would have been possible (to scale)
           | without violent and forcible extraction of resources from
           | around the globe, incl forced labor.
           | 
           | This is just silly. Everywhere had forced labour, but didn't
           | manage to build what the west did. The African slavers
           | selling their fellow continent-dwellers didn't somehow manage
           | to pick all the people who could build the most advanced
           | things in the world at the time.
           | 
           | Oxford University was founded in 1096, long before what
           | you're describing. This is very strong evidence that the UK
           | has a thousand years of excellent investment in education,
           | which much better explains all the advantages that built its
           | empire, the good bits and bad. Its advances are in part due
           | to the Roman colonisation, which allowed Britain to
           | rediscover things that much more advanced civilisation had
           | discovered 1000 years prior to that founding, and then push
           | on to far greater heights.
           | 
           | There are entire countries that still wouldn't have
           | universities today if left to their own devices. But they
           | would still have slaves, because western powers wouldn't have
           | ended this practice, either through Christianity or, if that
           | didn't work, by force.
        
             | Ar-Curunir wrote:
             | What racist and xenophobic BS.
             | 
             | Other civilizations had great academic and scientific
             | revolutions, much before Oxfordians did anything of note.
             | Just look at the history of Indian, Chinese, Persian, and
             | Arabic mathematics for a simple example, or Indian
             | linguistic inquiry for another.
             | 
             | The romans did not discover anything the celts had built in
             | the british isles; they largely existed in opposition to
             | them.
        
               | philipallstar wrote:
               | > Other civilizations had great academic and scientific
               | revolutions
               | 
               | I didn't say they didn't. The ancient Egyptians built the
               | Pyramids, too. But that doesn't mean Egypt sustained that
               | advantage and developed leading-edge science, values, and
               | technology to the present day. They had a brief moment,
               | and they are today in some ways a very cool country, but,
               | as with most countries, they measure progress as "how far
               | along the tech and culture trees we are compared to the
               | West".
               | 
               | > The romans did not discover anything the celts had
               | built in the british isles; they largely existed in
               | opposition to them.
               | 
               | Maybe you should read my comment again tomorrow, with a
               | clearer head.
               | 
               | > What racist and xenophobic BS.
               | 
               | A much clearer head.
        
         | yobbo wrote:
         | From an economist's perspective, energy is not typically
         | recognised as a critical quantity. In so far as it is
         | considered, it's thought of as an incidental property of some
         | good or service being traded like oil or electricity.
         | 
         | But technological progress can be understood as successively
         | more sophisticated ways of capturing and directing energy from
         | natural processes. Economic growth has always occurred
         | downstream of technologies that extract more energy or increase
         | efficiency. Sheep, horses, windmills, coal, oil, nuclear ...
         | etc.
         | 
         | Metrics like kWh per capita might become more interesting as
         | the understanding of energy/growth matures. Or externally added
         | energy (by electricity, oil, and fertiliser) per calorie of
         | food.
         | 
         | To achieve growth while also reducing energy use, efficiency
         | must be increased proportionately through technology.
         | Electrification of transport (bc low thermodynamic efficiency
         | of combustion engines) is an example of how we are doing this.
         | 
         | So even if technology continues to develop, unless efficiency
         | grows faster than energy sources wane, there will only be
         | economic degrowth.
        
           | StopDisinfo910 wrote:
           | > From an economist's perspective, energy is not typically
           | recognised as a critical quantity.
           | 
           | Energy is a critical quantity in multiple subfields of
           | economy including environmental economy where it's a core
           | issue.
        
             | paganel wrote:
             | There's also almost the entire economics-related work of
             | Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen. From his Wikipedia page:
             | 
             | > He is best known today for his 1971 magnum opus The
             | Entropy Law and the Economic Process, in which he argued
             | that all natural resources are irreversibly degraded when
             | put to use in economic activity. A progenitor and a
             | paradigm founder in economics, Georgescu-Roegen's work was
             | decisive for the establishing of ecological economics as an
             | independent academic sub-discipline in economics.
        
           | carlosjobim wrote:
           | > To achieve growth while also reducing energy use,
           | efficiency must be increased proportionately through
           | technology.
           | 
           | And that's something which happens thousands of times per day
           | all over the world in different businesses and in almost all
           | human endeavour. We're constantly getting more and more
           | utility out of the material and energy we use. So growth is
           | both using more resources, as well as using them in better
           | ways.
        
             | bell-cot wrote:
             | For reducing energy use, social values matter at least as
             | much as technology. Imagine if we had no better technology
             | - but most people drove small cars instead of large SUV's
             | and trucks, and jet plane trips were not routine for
             | hundreds of millions of people.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _and jet plane trips were not routine for hundreds of
               | millions of people_
               | 
               | So lower standards of living.
        
               | bell-cot wrote:
               | Feel free to live in a modest-sized, well-insulated
               | version of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Breakers
               | with a live-in domestic staff serving your meals on solid
               | gold plates.
               | 
               | Or is your definition of luxury "performative wasting of
               | energy"? If so, the _lower_ the tech that you have access
               | to, the better for the rest of humanity. :(
        
           | littlestymaar wrote:
           | That's why I'm convinced Jean Baptiste Say is a much more
           | insightful early economist than Riccardo.
        
         | bawolff wrote:
         | Isn't that almost a tautology? Technological progress is often
         | defined as something that increases efficiency. It would be
         | shocking if they weren't connected.
        
       | huitzitziltzin wrote:
       | Economist here...
       | 
       | An unexpected (to me!) prize but definitely a good one.
       | 
       | What's notable is that mokyr's research is very, very accessible
       | to a layman. You can read his books and understand them nearly
       | perfectly without needing substantial technical background. (Of
       | course there's a huge existing literature in economics and
       | history he's engaging with which you won't know, but I'm not an
       | economic historian either so a lot of it is unfamiliar to me
       | too.). Try it! Hopefully you learn something.
       | 
       | Also the committee always releases a good non-technical summary
       | of the laureates work and an even better "more technical"
       | summary. You can start there for an overview.
       | 
       | As for the point which will be raised endlessly here that this is
       | "not a real Nobel" - whatever. No one in the economics profession
       | cares. Alfred Nobel doesn't have a monopoly on prizes or priority
       | to decide which fields are worth recognizing. It's our highest
       | prestige prize. Call it what you want.
        
         | dkural wrote:
         | Agreed! I am a big fan of Robert Allen's books on the
         | industrial revolution as a counterpoint to Mokyr. (The two are
         | of course are friends with each other as well).
        
         | laborcontract wrote:
         | Are there any good papers floating out there?
        
           | huitzitziltzin wrote:
           | Sure...
           | 
           | Mokyr's northwestern website has links to a lot of his
           | papers.
           | 
           | An _extremely crude_ selection rule:
           | 
           | Anything published in the American economic review, quarterly
           | journal of economics, journal of political economy has the
           | profession's "highest stamp of approval". It's really hard to
           | publish anything there. (There are two journals im not
           | listing in that "top" category but he has no papers there on
           | his website.). On aghion or howitts websites, look for the
           | above journals but also econometrica and the review of
           | economic studies. Those are the "top five" in the field.
           | 
           | There are surely papers in good history and Econ history
           | journals on mokyr's website but I don't know the journals!
           | 
           | Standards for any chapter in a "handbook of X economics" or
           | "handbook of the economics of X" are high - those should be
           | good surveys.
           | 
           | Similarly a paper in the "annual review of economics"
           | 
           | Also mokyr has a bunch of work on Amazon. "The lever of
           | riches" is a classic. "A culture of growth" is well regarded.
           | 
           | Finally he has a forthcoming book called "two paths to
           | prosperity" with two other distinguished guys - one Econ
           | historian (greif) and one political economy guy (tabellini).
           | It's coming out in about three weeks. Good timing, Princeton
           | U Press!
           | 
           | Aghion and howitt have a growth textbook at the advanced
           | undergrad level called "the economics of growth."
           | 
           | They have a much more advanced work called "endogenous growth
           | theory" which is for specialists (or at least anyone with
           | first year PhD macro)
           | 
           | Aghion has a book called "the power of creative destruction."
        
         | nibles_and_bits wrote:
         | _No one in the economics profession cares._
         | 
         | Another contradiction by a member of the economics profession.
         | It seems to me they care very much. By linking the prize to
         | Alfred Nobel's name (and to the Nobel institutions), the
         | Riksbank ensured the prize would immediately carry great
         | symbolic prestige. The Nobel brand was already well established
         | internationally, so adopting the name helped the economics
         | prize gain recognition, gravitas, and legitimacy.
        
           | huitzitziltzin wrote:
           | I stand by my statement.
           | 
           | I'd love an estimate from you (or anyone) about the marginal
           | effect on the profession's "legitimacy" (which is what? and
           | how's it measured?) from having the prize include Nobel's
           | name vs. not including it.
           | 
           | Really we don't care.
        
             | littlestymaar wrote:
             | You care so little you spent time to claim you don't care
             | twice in a row.
             | 
             | > I'd love an estimate from you (or anyone) about the
             | marginal effect on the profession's "legitimacy" (which is
             | what? and how's it measured?) from having the prize include
             | Nobel's name vs. not including it.
             | 
             | I don't have an estimate for that, but we have an estimate
             | on how much money the Sverige Riskbank bankers were ready
             | to spend in that effort. Maybe it didn't pan out but some
             | people definitely had a multimillion dollar interest in
             | making that happen. As an economist you must wonder what
             | their incentives could have been ...
        
               | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
               | > You care so little you spent time to claim you don't
               | care twice in a row.
               | 
               | I've seen this style of argument before and I think it's
               | a non sequitur and total BS. The fact that he may care
               | about feeling his opinion is being misrepresented is
               | totally different from what his original "we don't care"
               | statement referred to.
        
               | baxtr wrote:
               | Are you sure though? I don't have an opinion on this
               | specific case, but I have been in situations where
               | someone claims to have no interest at all in a topic and
               | then doesn't stop talking about it.
        
               | 331c8c71 wrote:
               | Imo the economics profession very much suffers from
               | inferiority complex known as "physics envy".
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _economics profession very much suffers from
               | inferiority complex known as "physics envy"_
               | 
               | You're mixing up quantitative finance and economics.
        
               | 331c8c71 wrote:
               | Excuse me? Quant finance doesn't claim to be devising
               | grand theories about how the world operates (is more akin
               | to engineering). And when it does, any delineation from
               | economics is moot.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Quant finance doesn 't claim to be devising grand
               | theories about how the world operates_
               | 
               | What do you base this on?
        
               | 331c8c71 wrote:
               | What's quintessential quant finance? Black-Scholes and
               | no-arbitrage pricing. Don't you agree it's much more of a
               | tool than a theory of how the world works.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _What 's quintessential quant finance? Black-Scholes
               | and no-arbitrage pricing_
               | 
               | This is a bad model to pick to exemplify physics envy
               | given it's based on thermodynamic dispersion.
               | 
               | The term "physics envy" broadly applies to all social
               | sciences lacking a mathematical basis. It's a criticism
               | of using math where it doesn't belong. That hasn't really
               | fit (until very recently) with economics. It's been a
               | classic complaint about quantitative finance's loftier
               | visions of universality.
        
             | nibles_and_bits wrote:
             | _Really we don't care._
             | 
             | My point was speak for yourself, the history does not
             | suggest you are correct. Evidence economists do
             | care[1][2][3]. Economics was still a relatively newer niche
             | discipline[4].
             | 
             | [1] https://developingeconomics.org/2024/10/22/the-nobel-
             | illusio...
             | 
             | [2] https://ideas.repec.org/b/pup/pbooks/10841.html
             | 
             | [3]
             | https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/nobel-
             | priz...
             | 
             | [4] https://cooperative-individualism.org/parrish-
             | john_rise-of-e...
        
             | HSO wrote:
             | I'd love an estimate from you (or anyone) about the
             | marginal effect on the profession's "care" (which is what?
             | and how's it measured?) from having the prize include
             | Nobel's name vs. not including it.
             | 
             | Since you stand by your statement so strongly, you should
             | have it already, correct?
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _It seems to me they care very much_
           | 
           | I'd actually argue that the only people who love this piece
           | of trivia are economists, financiers and a particular vein of
           | Reddit.
        
           | caycep wrote:
           | I think OP meant that economists do consider the prize highly
           | despite the distinction between its particular situation vs.
           | the "core Nobels"
        
           | dkga wrote:
           | What the other poster meant was that economists don't care
           | that it is not an original Nobel prize.
           | 
           | Source: also an economist
        
           | bawolff wrote:
           | I mean, i hear people call the Turing prize the "nobel" of
           | computer science, and the fields medal the nobel of math.
           | Sports that arent in the olympics usually have some
           | competition people refer to as the "olympics" of that sport.
           | 
           | Who really cares, its the top prize in the field, that is all
           | that matters.
        
         | littlestymaar wrote:
         | I'm not familiar with the two others but Aghion really isn't a
         | surprise given the track record the Nobel committee for the
         | econ prize has of following hype rather than anything else.
         | 
         | (I've been very critical of Aghion's work for the past few
         | years since I've been exposed to his work over that period, but
         | it always appeared to me as a potential laureate given the
         | resonance of his work)
        
         | currymj wrote:
         | if you run into anyone who is serious about the "fake Nobel"
         | complaint, just ask them why they have such a high opinion of
         | taking money from an arms dealer, and such a low opinion of
         | taking money from a public institution in one of the Nordic
         | welfare states.
        
         | snowAbstraction wrote:
         | Maybe I will try Mokyr. I saw his "A Culture of Growth" is
         | available as an audio book. What do you think about that book?
         | Thanks
        
       | mallowdram wrote:
       | Sustained growth, like "economic science", is an oxymoron.
       | 
       | There is no science that correlates the use of arbitrary symbols
       | posed as capital. Risk is risk, a primate bias.
       | 
       | Economics is essentially "mathematical politics". We can no more
       | create a science of economics than a science of mythology.
       | 
       | https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262049658/blunt-instrument/
       | 
       | Downvoting only proves the point: economics is like any primate
       | bias, it enforces status at the cost of the collective or
       | institutional. The US is a sad case for economic "modeling."
        
         | sethammons wrote:
         | A stable biome feels like sustained growth to me, via
         | destruction and recycling. The jungle is always growing, even
         | as plants die and rot.
         | 
         | Maybe the word should be "activity" vs growth.
        
           | mallowdram wrote:
           | On a desertifying planet trapped in climate extinction, the
           | jungle is only shrinking.
        
             | sethammons wrote:
             | Look up reforestation work. It is a light in dark times.
        
               | mallowdram wrote:
               | We're inside the first animal created mass
               | desertification project. Reforestation is nonsense.
               | 
               | https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SG8IGOzeF49Pbf8JZ-
               | JWyzPq...
               | 
               | We lose 10 million sq miles of forests a year and have
               | lost 1/3 of forest areas since 1000Ad, so "reforesting"
               | isn't a viable reversal project.
               | 
               | And reforestation is poorly understood as "reforesting"
               | is pursued on land already lost to forest capability.
               | 
               | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59799-8
               | 
               | "Reforestation is a prominent climate change mitigation
               | strategy, but available global maps of reforestation
               | potential are widely criticized and highly variable,
               | which limits their ability to provide robust estimates of
               | both the locations and total area of opportunity"
        
               | sethammons wrote:
               | Wikipedia says "Globally, planted forests increased from
               | 4.1% to 7.0% of the total forest area between 1990 and
               | 2015." And the Green Wall in China is arguably doing cool
               | things.
               | 
               | Reforestation might not solve our issues, but I don't see
               | "nonsense."
        
           | simiones wrote:
           | A jungle is generally stable and doesn't grow in the sense
           | that we say that GDP grows - definitely for large periods of
           | time, with occasional exceptions. The fact that individuals
           | grow in this jungle doesn't mean that the jungle itself
           | grows. By whatever metric you look at it (mass, CO2
           | consumption, O2 emission, etc) the jungle doesn't grow, at
           | least not for the majority of its lifetime (obviously, at
           | some point it grew from an original small size to its current
           | size, and it will occasionally experience waxing and waning
           | as the climate and other geographical features change).
           | 
           | By contrast, when people talk about sustained growth in
           | economics, they do actually mean growth, an increase in the
           | amount of goods and services consumed by the totality of
           | individuals.
        
             | mallowdram wrote:
             | It's an extinction project, growth or sustained growth,
             | you're describing mathematical politics, which is
             | arbitrary. All animals reach a homeostasis/allostasis with
             | the environment. Humans don't require synthetic categories
             | ie "goods and services" we require functional relationships
             | to resources that become streamlined into ecological
             | categories in order to survive.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _jungle is generally stable and doesn 't grow in the
             | sense that we say that GDP grows_
             | 
             | Jungles today are fantastically more complicated than they
             | were a billion years ago.
             | 
             | Earth's biosphere's energy flux is higher today than it was
             | hundreds of billions of years ago [1]. This is due to
             | various metabolic "innovations." It also occurred because
             | life directly altered Earth's atmosphere and at least
             | surface geology that made it more conducive to more life
             | [2].
             | 
             | > _By contrast, when people talk about sustained growth in
             | economics, they do actually mean growth, an increase in the
             | amount of goods and services consumed_
             | 
             | This is not how _this fucking paper_ defines growth. Nor is
             | gross consumption how most models define growth--the word
             | production is right there in GDP.
             | 
             | [1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10288578/
             | 
             | [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-00116-w
        
         | lanfeust6 wrote:
         | The US has among the richest citizens in the world, with a high
         | quality of life. You could do worse for modeling, like perhaps
         | your socialist darlings.
         | 
         | Growth is not necessary but provides benefits. A country that
         | grows improves its quality of life. Extreme poverty levels have
         | been plumetting for decades because of said growth ( mostly
         | represented in China and India). The poorest countries trade
         | the least.
         | 
         | Economics today is mostly about data. For instance tariffs lead
         | to worse outcomes for consumers; only populists like them. Or,
         | compare housing affordability between areas with lax zoning or
         | strict zoning. Just because data isn't gleaned from a physics
         | experiment doesn't mean it isn't useful; more than likely you
         | probably invoked social science research data to support a POV
         | that wasn't a controlled experiment; was that all in fact nil
         | in value? The facts don't matter, or rather, there are no facts
         | and only ideology exists? That must be why communists twist
         | themselves over "is" and "ought"
        
           | mallowfram wrote:
           | As a post-symbolic, post-causal thinker (not a "socialist"
           | which is also political nonsense), economics is purely the
           | translation to settlement coercion for the production of Myth
           | of the State/center-worshipping ("richest citizens in the
           | world" in what sense? cash? real estate? these are arbitrary
           | variables).
           | 
           | Until we move to measurement (ie analog) rather than binary
           | statistics (which is still merely a project based in
           | counting, yes, 1,2,3) then we are totally informationally
           | emasculated.
        
             | lanfeust6 wrote:
             | > As a post-symbolic, post-causal thinker (not a
             | "socialist" which is also political nonsense)
             | 
             | That tells me nothing about your perspective. Your ideology
             | is as identifiable as anyone else's and you have to do
             | politics like anyone else.
             | 
             | > economics is purely the translation to settlement
             | coercion for the production of Myth of the State/center-
             | worshipping
             | 
             | It's not up to you. Economics has a definition.
             | 
             | > richest citizens in the world" in what sense? cash? real
             | estate? these are arbitrary variables).
             | 
             | Wealth.
        
               | mallowfram wrote:
               | Wealth is arbitrary post settlement. Show me a currency
               | from 700AD still traded on a regulated market. In that
               | sense, wealth is a decadent category the West will be
               | destroyed by, look at the current state of oligarchy,
               | particularly tech. There's little if any ecological
               | parity in these displays of wealth and extraction status.
               | 
               | My ideology is the replacement of symbols with
               | measurement. I have no relationship with politics, which
               | is clearly a dinosaur still walking the Earth. Politics
               | will vanish in the post-symbolic like a disease we cured
               | easily.
               | 
               | No economics is like any word, it's arbitrary, that is
               | HOW it needs a definition that varies from state to
               | state.
               | 
               | "Economic theory has never gotten any better at
               | prediction. Its explanations are always after the fact.
               | The mathematical models economists have devoted
               | themselves to for more than a century can't be improved
               | to enhance their empirical relevance." Alex Rosenberg
               | 
               | The deadness of the West is so unusual, as if the whole
               | enterprise was for self-extinction of a way of poetically
               | enhancing words, narratives and myths/religion. The West
               | was simply a temporary state.
               | 
               | The west assumed individual happiness (politics,
               | entertainment, biographical myth making, celebrity) was
               | the path to collective happiness. But of course, in our
               | agentic languages, that was simply the hydra of our
               | undoing. The west was like a temporary infection that
               | colonized and dominated more collective people, but now
               | we will be subsumed if we don't destroy the world in a
               | suicidal urge to dominate
        
         | AnimalMuppet wrote:
         | > Downvoting only proves the point
         | 
         | You keep telling yourself that, if it makes you feel any
         | better.
         | 
         | In real life, it may mean that people feel that, though you
         | state your points as though they are obviously true, you have
         | given no reason for us to actually agree with your dogmatic
         | assertions. That doesn't prove that economics is a primate
         | bias; it proves that you are not doing well at persuading
         | people.
        
           | mallowfram wrote:
           | There is no such thing as economic science. If you can find
           | an empirical, demonstration of mental events, biology,
           | correlating value through arbitrary means, I'm all ears.
           | Until I see proof, this is witch doctor level thinking
           | hoisted onto the West as a self-immolation project.
        
         | addcommitpush wrote:
         | Aren't there quite a few historians, anthropologists and so on
         | that study mythology?
        
           | mallowfram wrote:
           | Of course, both scientific approaches of history and myth are
           | the work of fabulists. eg Jung, Campbell. The point is to
           | examine the myth and then history as the source of causal
           | illusions.
           | 
           | "The myth is the prototypal, fundamental, integrative mind
           | tool ... to integrate a variety of events in a temporal and
           | causal framework." Merlin Donald
           | 
           | That's folk science, what Donald is describing (he admit this
           | in Origins of the Modern Mind).
           | 
           | Remember that the causal framework must be evaded to reach
           | scientific correlations, where multiple contradictions can
           | lead to knowledge. Myth and history were addictive hiccups
           | that trapped humans in way simplistic explanations.
           | 
           | We evade this "plain English" silliness, like economics, or
           | go bust.
        
       | l5870uoo9y wrote:
       | What is the smallest fraction of a Nobel Prize that a winner can
       | be awarded?
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | 1/3
        
         | arjunnarayan wrote:
         | 1/4. The max number of recipients of any prize is 3, but it can
         | be split into a half, and then one of those halves into two
         | further halves, for a 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/4 split. (It can also be
         | split equally into 1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3).
        
       | Tycho wrote:
       | I was thinking about this concept of creative destruction
       | recently.
       | 
       | I move to my neighbourhood in 2019. Before I got round to
       | visiting them, a bunch of pubs and eateries closed down for the
       | pandemic, and never re-opened. One pub became new apartments. A
       | cafe became some sort of spa.
       | 
       | Take the pub for instance, I could imagine it was a lifestyle
       | business for someone who made enough money from it, but not a
       | whole lot. Is it net good or bad (for the area) for somewhere
       | like that to close? Was this lifestyle business depriving the
       | area of better services, more tax revenue? Or does the area now
       | get less services and the money is mostly extracted into the
       | coffers of a non-local property development enterprise. Quite
       | hard to judge. Maybe there's some good heuristics for estimating
       | such things?
        
         | stevenwoo wrote:
         | Just in case you missed it, last year's winners included it as
         | one phenomena in their 2019 book, The Narrow Corridor, it's
         | kind of like an interpretation of history through their
         | particular lens.
        
         | Maxion wrote:
         | A park will generate less revenue than an apartment building, a
         | sports complex, or a cafe.
         | 
         | Not all value is quantifiable in USD.
        
           | IAmBroom wrote:
           | Tycho didn't claim it was. In fact, they explicitly asked if
           | such a heuristic existed.
        
           | jlhawn wrote:
           | this isn't necessarily true. While it generates less _direct_
           | revenue, it increases nearby land value in two ways: 1)
           | business activity which would have taken place on that parcel
           | "overflows" to nearby parcels, ie, the demand for those other
           | land uses doesn't go away and increases prices in the
           | surrounding area. 2) the park provides real value to its
           | users and access to that value also increases nearby ground
           | rents.
        
         | andrepd wrote:
         | In the year 2025 the zeitgeist is decidedly against any
         | considerations beside crude profit. Like someone pointed out: a
         | park generates less revenue than a cafe. And a neighbourhood
         | cafe probably less than a hyperoptimised gigachain. But is an
         | urban park not an important part of quality of life? And is not
         | a neighbourhood cafe with its crowd of regulars and familiar
         | faces and accessible prices a better thing that yet another
         | chain store #28174? [1]
         | 
         | No space in 2025 for any such considerations.
         | 
         | [1] Case in point: I just read a news piece announcing that an
         | 85 year old cafe in downtown Lisbon will be closed down to make
         | way to yet another generic gentrified """brunch place""" for
         | tourists. The regulars, many of them elderly and for whom the
         | friendly place was basically a living room to help stave off
         | lonelyness; many of them working people used to stopping by for
         | fresh bread and a chat on their way home from work, are
         | dismayed of course. But it's more "economically efficient" to
         | cater to tourist jerkoffs and sell them the same overpriced egg
         | on croissant that they can have in any large city in the
         | world...
        
       | ahmedfromtunis wrote:
       | This seems like a continuation on the theme of last year's award.
       | Very nice!
        
       | jcattle wrote:
       | I find macroeconomics fascinating. These theories to explain how
       | growth works, what incentivizes it, where value comes from, I
       | find them really fascinating.
       | 
       | It kind of echoes a common theme with LLMs, of humans creating
       | systems that somehow work and only afterwards trying to make
       | sense of _why_ they work. We know that transformers are good at
       | capturing context, and gradient descent is good at arriving at a
       | working model of that context but how exactly this knowledge is
       | being distilled and stored in an embedding space, no exact clue.
       | 
       | Is there some course which teaches the basics of macroeconomics?
        
         | huitzitziltzin wrote:
         | You can start with a used copy of an older edition of mankiw's
         | text which is a standard undergrad reference.
         | 
         | Barro also has an old undergrad macro text which is good
         | 
         | The gap between undergrad macro and professional macro is
         | extremely large. That shouldn't dissuade you it's just a note.
        
       | xbar wrote:
       | Fantastic selection. As ever, it is worthwhile to be familiar
       | with the winners' works, particularly this audience and this
       | year.
        
       | hearsathought wrote:
       | Why not just Economics. Why do they have to play games with
       | everyone by adding "science" to everything? Economic "Sciences"
       | is just as absurd as Creation "Science".
        
         | Perz1val wrote:
         | "Just economics" would go to the best businessman, no?
        
           | hearsathought wrote:
           | Is this a real question? Businessmen are in the business of
           | management. It's why businessmen tend to get MBAs. Whilest
           | economists get degrees in economics.
        
           | mediaman wrote:
           | This is terribly confused.
           | 
           | Economics is the study of scarcity. Scarcity comes in many
           | forms: land, attention, materials, time. (It is not the study
           | of money, which is a common belief of those who have not
           | thought about what money is. Money is merely a fungible token
           | claim on resources, not the resource itself.)
           | 
           | You could also believe that the study of physics is just the
           | study of business, because businessmen operate in a world
           | governed by physics.
        
         | btown wrote:
         | There's actually a fair amount of drama around why this is!
         | 
         | https://rwer.wordpress.com/2010/10/22/the-nobel-family-disso...
         | 
         | Apparently, when the Riksbank decided it wanted to publicly
         | fund a prize for the category, the verbosity of the name of the
         | prize was a concession to distance it from the other simply-
         | named Nobel Prizes, funded by the family.
         | 
         | > What was the position of the Nobel family? Three days before
         | the meeting of April 26, the then director of the Nobel
         | Foundation, Nils Stahle, met two members of the family and
         | telephonically talked with a third one. Their position was that
         | "it should not become like a sixth Nobel Prize", but that if
         | the economics prize could be kept clearly separate from the
         | Nobel Prizes then it might be an acceptable idea.
         | 
         | > They obtained her written approval of the economics prize
         | "under given conditions," namely that the new prize in all
         | official documents and statements should be kept separated from
         | the Nobel prize, and called the "prize in economic science in
         | memory of Alfred Nobel." In a telephonic conversation with a
         | nephew, Martha Nobel said that the whole thing was prearranged
         | and impossible to oppose, so that one could only hope that they
         | would keep their pledge that no confusion with the real Noble
         | prize should occur.
         | 
         | > What has happened is an unparalleled example of successful
         | trademark infringement. However, nobody in the world can
         | prevent journalists, economists and the general public from
         | talking about the "Nobel prize in economics," with all its
         | connotations.
        
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