[HN Gopher] A Clausewitzian lens on modern urban warfare
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       A Clausewitzian lens on modern urban warfare
        
       Author : bryanrasmussen
       Score  : 64 points
       Date   : 2025-10-08 11:56 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (mwi.westpoint.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (mwi.westpoint.edu)
        
       | iammjm wrote:
       | The author seems to be more interested in the past than in the
       | present or the future. They must've been rereading Clausewitz as
       | Russia was turning Bakhmut, Vovchansk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar et al.
       | to _literal_ rubble. They speak of some abstract "urban warfare",
       | where "Every strike is a message, every misstep a liability",
       | where the reality is basically a grid-like approach of how to
       | deliver as much kinetic energy per square kilometer as
       | efficiently as possible.
       | 
       | I have a sense that articles like these is why a lot of people
       | think the "academics" are completely disconnected from the
       | reality.
        
         | falcor84 wrote:
         | What? The latter part discusses the current battles of Kyiv and
         | Gaza in some depth.
        
           | iammjm wrote:
           | Choosing Kyiv as an example of a modern urban warfare is
           | really weird, as there wasn't really much urban fighting at
           | all (with the exception of some Russian saboteur groups in
           | Kyiv), since the main Russian army didn't even make it into
           | the city because their logistics got blown up in the
           | outskirts.
           | 
           | Also, we are talking about the most technologically advanced
           | war that ever took place, where the iteration cycles are
           | measured with weeks. The Russo-Ukrainian war of the beginning
           | of 2022 looked very different from what it currently is. For
           | the actual modern urban warfare see the cities I mentioned.
        
             | falcor84 wrote:
             | Thanks for the clarification. Yes, I absolutely agree that
             | this analysis was lacking.
             | 
             | I would then ask you about your mention of:
             | 
             | > turning Bakhmut, Vovchansk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar et al. to
             | _literal_ rubble
             | 
             | Leaving aside the horrible ethics. Would you say that this
             | was an intentional strategic approach by the Russian
             | leaders, as a mechanism of avoiding the difficulty of urban
             | warfare, or an unintended side-effect of trying to conduct
             | urban warfare?
        
               | iammjm wrote:
               | I think they just lack the sophistication to do it any
               | other way. According to their own doctrine, they should
               | be trying to flank and encircle a city, cut off enemy
               | logistics and reinforcements, and suffocate the
               | defenders. But in most cases they were unable to to do,
               | so they just default to pure destruction. It's just
               | simpler to bomb everything that could shelter Ukrainian
               | defenders. Russian artillery and aviation is not really
               | known for their precision. There is nothing surgical
               | about their approach. They are just throwing tons and
               | tons of explosives at urban centers until they are
               | stopped or there is nothing left to bomb. I think the
               | siege of Mariupol was the only somewhat successful
               | Russian urban operation in this war.
        
         | jcranmer wrote:
         | Russia's invasion of Ukraine is one of the mini-case studies
         | analyzed in the piece, specifically for its note that Russia's
         | disregard for Clausewitzian principles has failed to bring it
         | meaningful success.
         | 
         | It should also be noted that, objectively, Russia's war has not
         | been a success. It also has not been a failure, except in the
         | grand strategic sense of provoking the realignment and
         | reinvigorating of NATO it was meant to prevent.
        
           | rzwitserloot wrote:
           | That sounds like "the leg amputation operation was a success,
           | other than the fact that the patient died on the operating
           | table". That "except" is doing rather a lot of heavy lifting.
           | 
           | I have absolutely no idea what Russia was expecting from
           | their three day special military operation, currently on 3
           | years, 7 months, and 2 weeks. But surely whatever they were
           | thinking, if I could go back in time and paint them a picture
           | of how the situation is today, they'd jump out the window (or
           | be 'helped' out of them, as appears to be a popular pastime
           | in Moscow this decade). This has to be on the levels quite
           | near 'worst than our worst case scenario'.
           | 
           | I think Von clausewitz's revenge on the russian plan for
           | Ukraine hasn't even begun yet. _If_ Russia ends up wanting to
           | turn lands they currently occupy in lands they annexed (a
           | land that is productive and well on its way to just being
           | culturally subsumed), the cost of that operation will be even
           | larger than the astronomical cost they are paying to gain
           | them: Their utter disregard for Clausewitzian planning means
           | it 'll be one heck of an insurgency.
           | 
           | Unfortunately, Russia is one of the most ruthless countries
           | in this regard and will simply massively replace the
           | population, starve it out, or otherwise eliminate any odds of
           | low morale amongst the populace or active insurgency by
           | simply _replacing the entire population_.
           | 
           | But that also destroys all inherent economic productivity
           | other than natural resources. Russia already has plenty of
           | land and plenty of resources; what they need is more people
           | in general and productive, creative members of society in
           | particular, neither of which you can make happen by starving
           | a population that hates you for how you fought that war and
           | still holds out hope they can drive you out.
        
             | mamonster wrote:
             | >if I could go back in time and paint them a picture of how
             | the situation is today, they'd jump out the window
             | 
             | Debatable. The war itself is basically a massively failure,
             | but it completely stabilized the regime. Whereas 5 years
             | ago there were clear questions about what would happen
             | after Putin died, ZOV-logic is enough to power the regime
             | for the next 10 years.
             | 
             | 20 years of careful building of liberal oppositions by
             | highlighting corruption is now out of the window. FBK,
             | Kats, Volkov, etc are now all abroad with no chance to
             | return; literally no one gives a fuck about corruption
             | that's not military related. The new "liberal" party that
             | replaced Navalniy & Co (Noviye Lyudi) is basically only
             | liberal in economics.
             | 
             | The only thing that will decide if Russia ends up winning
             | or losing in the long term is whether the "Pivot to Asia"
             | strategy that they basically were forced to take will end
             | up working.
        
             | kakacik wrote:
             | You are right, but also expect some high noble goals from
             | russian leadership. It was supposed to be an easy land
             | grab, a _very_ valuable land grab full of heavy industry
             | and literal gigatons of natural gas. There was never a rich
             | greedy person who didn 't want more. And lets not forget
             | they weren't that far from success in first days - if they
             | won Hostomel airport, Kyiv would probably fall and with it
             | the rest would be a domino effect.
             | 
             | Especially given how russian elites are just several
             | pyramids structured (and behaving) exactly like typical
             | mafia. They only go for themselves, screw the rest. They
             | only think now and maybe tomorrow, long term planning ain't
             | a strong point of decision makers to be polite. Nihilism
             | all around, to the very top. The whole war became purely an
             | ego game, emotional stupidity of little boys who simply
             | refuse to lose face (and thus life and legacy) even when
             | colossal fuckup they created is right in their faces all
             | the time.
             | 
             | But is is actually colossal fuckup to them? No it isn't,
             | they get some international hate but plight of commoners is
             | completely irrelevant to them, and who cares when you still
             | have billions all around the globe. Also don't
             | underestimate the capacity of russian population to just
             | quietly accept brutal oppression and go on, its not
             | something west can fully grok. Life of a human being has no
             | value there, that's still the case as it was.,
        
               | Someone wrote:
               | > And lets not forget they weren't that far from success
               | in first days - if they won Hostomel airport, Kyiv would
               | probably fall and with it the rest would be a domino
               | effect.
               | 
               | I think the war would have been very short if Zelensky
               | hadn't rejected the USA offer to evacuate him, asking for
               | ammunition instead.
               | 
               | > But is is actually colossal fuckup to them? No it
               | isn't, they get some international hate but plight of
               | commoners is completely irrelevant to them
               | 
               | Maybe it isn't a colossal fuckup to them _yet_. The
               | plight of commoners was irrelevant to the tsars, too,
               | until it became very relevant, and then, it was too late
               | for them.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Annexing Ukrainian lands and making them productive was
             | never the primary Russian strategic goal. What they wanted
             | to do was establish defensible strategic depth. There are
             | no natural geographic borders (like mountain ranges or wide
             | rivers) between NATO member states and Moscow so Russian
             | leaders still fear a land invasion from Western Europe
             | (which has happened a couple times before). If they
             | controlled Ukraine then they could make an invasion by NATO
             | much more difficult. I'm not trying to justify Russian
             | aggression but from an amoral geopolitical perspective
             | there was a certain logic to it.
        
               | tim333 wrote:
               | That never made sense to me for various reasons.
               | 
               | Firstly no one in Ukraine or NATO had any thoughts of
               | invading Russia. Even now after Russia launched its war,
               | no one wants to invade Russia. Why invade some
               | godforsaken place with the world's largest nuclear
               | arsenal? Makes no sense.
               | 
               | Second if they wanted to invade they could have gone from
               | Estonia or Latvia which share a border with Russia and
               | are fairly close to Moscow and St Petersburg.
               | 
               | My take is the Russians regard Ukraine as Russian lands
               | and Ukrainians as their property and felt the west was
               | trying to steal it from them by promoting democracy and
               | independence.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | I'm not claiming that it makes sense to a rational
               | outside observer, I'm just pointing out part of the
               | strategic calculus from the perspective of a paranoid
               | Russian leader. They conceptualize the world in a
               | fundamentally different way that's hard for westerners to
               | intuitively comprehend. And obviously that wasn't the
               | only factor, they thought they had multiple reasons for
               | acting.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | Except Putin is not, and has absolutely never been
               | paranoid of NATO invading Russia.
               | 
               | He literally believed the west would barely react to this
               | invasion. They didn't even take hundreds of billions of
               | dollars of hard cash out of foreign accounts.
               | 
               | Russia continues to pull defensive weapons like SAM
               | systems from the NATO border to use them in Ukraine
               | 
               | Because "NATO invasion" has always been bullshit.
               | 
               | The strategic calculus was that Putin has spent a decade
               | killing anyone who tells him something he doesn't want to
               | hear, so a couple years ago he heard "We could take over
               | all of Ukraine in 3 days and they would welcome us with
               | open arms" and he believed it.
               | 
               | Vladimir Putin genuinely believed that they could blitz
               | Ukraine and be thanked for it.
               | 
               | A reminder that for Putin to genuinely believe that
               | Ukrainian people _who the soviets killed and repressed
               | quite significantly_ would choose to be Russian
               | willingly, he must have believed that EuroMaidan was not
               | genuine protest.
               | 
               | Putin believes the CIA did it.
               | 
               | Which is yet again another reason why the "Protection
               | from NATO" argument is horse shit, because Putin does not
               | believe that a country has to be in NATO for it to be
               | used against Russia.
        
               | mopsi wrote:
               | Let's assume for a moment that this is true. In 2014,
               | when Russia first invaded Ukraine, European militaries
               | were in the process of unilateral disarmament. Military
               | units were being disbanded, bases were being shut down,
               | equipment like Leopard tanks was being sold to places as
               | far away as Chile. The US removed its last permanent
               | heavy equipment from Europe in 2013. The few countries
               | that still had conscription were debating a move to much
               | smaller professional armies.
               | 
               | If a leader in Moscow had truly feared an invasion from
               | the West, why would they have needed to do anything other
               | than sit and wait for the disarmament trend to continue?
               | 
               | Perhaps it was the other way around: the leader in Moscow
               | saw all that and believed that no one would have the
               | resources to stop him?
        
           | GolfPopper wrote:
           | Russia: starts a war to prevent it from having a much longer
           | land border with NATO.
           | 
           | Outcome:Russia's land border with NATO is now 1300km longer.
        
         | jimbohn wrote:
         | The reality of Bakhmut is one of failure, massive time and
         | resources used, which led to an attempted coup
        
       | WillAdams wrote:
       | This line:
       | 
       | >Tactical brilliance could not guarantee strategic clarity--and
       | each gain came at political and moral cost.
       | 
       | sums up what is wrong with modern conflict --- the abandonment of
       | the moral high ground and a failure to take into account the will
       | of people and their right to self-determination which Jomini (who
       | had displaced Clausewitz after his inculcation at West Point as
       | part of the brutal lessens the U.S. learned in Vietnam) failed to
       | consider, and which Clausewitz took to heart and studied deeply,
       | and thought long on.
       | 
       | It wasn't that long ago that the collapse of the Soviet Union was
       | viewed as "the end of history" and a global acknowledgement that
       | liberal democracy was the means of government most widely
       | accepted --- hopefully articles such as this will be a guidepost
       | to getting back on that track --- every moral failure simply
       | recruits others to fight on the opposite side.
        
         | psunavy03 wrote:
         | West Point is only one of three service academies, and it needs
         | to teach only enough of the higher level of war to produce a
         | reasonably competent Second Lieutenant. In fact it's arguable
         | the service academies are a waste of resources as currently
         | implemented as opposed to OCS and ROTC.
         | 
         | What matters is what is taught to the Majors, Lieutenant
         | Colonels, Lieutenant Commanders, and Commanders 12-15 years
         | later at the War Colleges. And as a graduate myself (if only by
         | correspondence) I can assure you that Clausewitz and Sun Tzu
         | were very much still on the books in the 2010s.
        
           | pclmulqdq wrote:
           | The war colleges are more intellectual than many people
           | think. The curricula of those schools include most of the
           | seminal works on war and statecraft from Thucydides to
           | Kissinger.
        
             | psunavy03 wrote:
             | I was disappointed they truncated the remote version of
             | Strategy and War and we didn't get to dig into Thucydides
             | and Corbett.
             | 
             | I will say getting that intellectualism to stick in the
             | officer corps doesn't necessarily always work. There are
             | jokes about "it's only a lot of reading if you do the
             | reading," and oftentimes being able to spend a year in
             | residence gets passed over in favor of sending people to
             | other assignments and expecting them to do the War College
             | syllabus by correspondence.
             | 
             | That said, the War Colleges are also heavily involved in
             | things like designing and evaluating higher-level military
             | exercises, red-teaming things, etc.
        
         | corimaith wrote:
         | You're going to loose to Russia and China in time.
        
           | RealityVoid wrote:
           | This is spoken as if history converges to a point and then it
           | _really_ gets to the end of history. There is no end, there
           | will be endless fights and conflicts and one country taking
           | the upper hand is just a temporary state.
        
             | corimaith wrote:
             | Dosen't mean you specifically will survive till the next
             | conflict.
        
           | vkou wrote:
           | Russia is a one-trick petrostate that has been stuck in a
           | three-year quagmire of a land war against the poorest country
           | in Europe (that is a quarter its size).
        
             | rolandog wrote:
             | Completely agree... though I wouldn't underestimate them:
             | Their main strength, I'd argue, comes from their very
             | successful use of the Firehose Of Falsehood (effectively
             | managing to make the US self-own itself by turbocharging
             | neoliberalism, among other things). They "James-Bond-
             | Villain'd" the US (announced how they'd "take over the
             | world") 28 years ago [0], and... well... look how that's
             | going.
             | 
             | [0]:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
        
               | vkou wrote:
               | Nothing there seems to be dramatically different from the
               | sort of wankery produced by think tanks like PNAC and
               | their ilk. And it's not like the US has ever shied away
               | from using soft power to destabilize other countries.
               | 
               | The game everyone's playing is not that different, and
               | Ivan isn't making some 400 IQ move in it.
        
           | IncreasePosts wrote:
           | China already lost to China with their upcoming demographic
           | nightmare and Han-centric/low-immigration society.
        
             | breppp wrote:
             | If we are at apocalyptic prophecies, the world demographic
             | situation might be resolved by AI and diminishing need for
             | working hands
        
             | 1718627440 wrote:
             | People like to point that out, as if they found the hidden
             | flaw, but which western country doesn't have a demographic
             | nightmare?
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | I guess that's always a possibility.
           | 
           | Another more likely scenario in the next few decades is that
           | Russia and/or China will collapse into violent revolution or
           | civil way -- as has happened multiple times throughout their
           | long histories. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping aren't
           | immortal. They have effectively concentrated decision making
           | in their own hands and purged all other internal power
           | centers, leaving no clear succession plan. When they die
           | there's no way to predict what might happen.
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | The most corrupt government in American history (Trumps) is
           | the one that is the most eager to give Russia everything they
           | want. They are kind of trying to make America loose.
           | 
           | Morally purer government would do better in the competition
           | between Russia and America.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | We lost India to China because we were impulsive. Beijing's
           | "wolf warriors" had already done generational damage to
           | China's strength. We could have held the high ground for
           | decades more.
        
           | quickthrowman wrote:
           | Russia is essentially a mafia with a gas station.
           | 
           | The problem is, this mafia has a shitload of nuclear weapons.
           | Without those, their vast land holdings east of the Urals
           | would've already been taken by China.
           | 
           | Both China and Russia have concentrated vast amounts of power
           | into a single person, it gets bloody and chaotic when the
           | 'one powerful man' dies and there's a power struggle.
        
       | falcor84 wrote:
       | I appreciated the historical context, but was disappointed that
       | it seemed to fizzle to nothing at the end, just circling around
       | "Urban warfare is messy; bummer". I mean, I was hoping that it
       | could offer at least the basics of a strategy for any of Russia,
       | Ukraine, Hamas or Israel to achieve a decisive victory, but
       | couldn't find any. My mind kept yelling "What would Clausewitz do
       | in this situation?" but left at empty-handed as I was at the
       | start.
       | 
       | It actually had the gall to finish with:
       | 
       | > Clausewitz offers no checklist for success in cities, but
       | rather something more valuable. What he offers is a way to think
       | clearly ...
       | 
       | I'm pretty sure that a checklist for success would have been more
       | valuable.
        
         | KnuthIsGod wrote:
         | A checklist approach to strategy is only useful if your
         | adversaries are foolish enough to use a checklist themselves.
        
           | falcor84 wrote:
           | Well, yes, a "checklist" (his word) might be too much of a
           | strawman, but what would be useful would be a strategy in the
           | game theoretical sense - a decision mechanism of actions
           | conditional on different situations (e.g. "If the enemy is
           | hiding in a network of tunnel under civilian population, you
           | should wait until ... and then randomly ..., but if they ...
           | then reverse course and instead ...").
           | 
           | Quoting again from the author's closing remarks:
           | 
           | > Victory in this environment requires more than
           | technological superiority. It demands clarity of purpose,
           | coherence between means and ends, disciplined execution, and
           | moral restraint--the very fundamentals Clausewitz insisted
           | upon. These are not optional in the urban century. They are
           | decisive.
           | 
           | But that's so vague that I can't help but again yell "But
           | what is decisive?!", "What should the commanders/politicians
           | do in practice?". It's almost astrology in how it doesn't say
           | anything objectionable.
        
             | lukan wrote:
             | "What should the commanders/politicians do in practice?"
             | 
             | It simply depends. No situation is unique.
             | 
             | Israels strategy towards tunnels for example is to blow up
             | and level everything. Ukraine does not deem that acceptable
             | to the russian tunnels inside Ukraine.
        
               | falcor84 wrote:
               | What do you mean it depends? What does it depend on?
               | 
               | I was hoping that being "the chair of urban warfare
               | studies at the Modern War Institute" [0], the author
               | could offer some actual advice on strategy. Or what is
               | the institute for? Hopefully not just for writing essays.
               | 
               | As for Israel's strategy towards tunnels, I actually have
               | no understanding of what's going on there, but I can just
               | say that whatever they're doing has not been effective in
               | achieving a decisive victory, and is thus ipso facto not
               | a good strategy. So I'm wondering what might a good
               | strategy have been. The author now has two years of
               | hindsight - could he not use that time and information to
               | offer some alternative approach?
               | 
               | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Spencer_(military_
               | officer...
        
               | lukan wrote:
               | "What do you mean it depends? What does it depend on?"
               | 
               | The terrain, your avaiable forces and equipment, the
               | morale of your soldiers, the main goal of the operation,
               | the short, mid and long term plans. Outside reactions.
               | 
               | Strength of enemy. Outside reactions, will the enemy get
               | more support if X happens or less, will it matter if key
               | target is achieved before time Y, ...
               | 
               | There is no magic bullet for something as complex as
               | urban warfare.
               | 
               | If you want to level all, just use a nuke. But there
               | seems to be reasons, why that is not a valid option. If
               | you go with lots of ground troops, you will have
               | casualties. Here the question how much is acceptable to
               | your own population.
               | 
               | If you go fast, you achieve a different effect then going
               | slow. Etc. Etc etc.
        
               | breppp wrote:
               | The issue is mainly the hostages, as any tunnel or
               | building may contain one that really slows the pace of
               | advance considerably and ironically increases palestinian
               | suffering
        
               | pjc50 wrote:
               | What Russian tunnels in Ukraine? The battlefields are of
               | very, very different sizes, and the Ukraine war is mostly
               | not taking place in occupied cities at the moment.
        
               | lukan wrote:
               | They ain't in use like in Gaza, but just google for
               | "russia tunnels ukraine" if you are curious.
               | 
               | They are used to get past strong lines of defense for
               | example.
        
             | bell-cot wrote:
             | In one sense, your checklist is whatever you wrote down
             | before starting:
             | 
             | > Clausewitz also famously wrote, "No one starts a war--or
             | rather, no one in his senses ought to do so--without first
             | being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that
             | war and how he intends to conduct it."
             | 
             | You could also make a checklist of stuff like "reduce
             | effectiveness of enemy's forces" and "minimize damage to
             | your own ability to wage war" - but that's basics which any
             | upperclassman at a military academy could recite, in regard
             | to pretty much any war ever.
             | 
             | It's been 2 centuries since Clausewitz was writing about
             | military theory. He's still widely read because his ideas
             | are big-picture abstractions. Bridging the gap between his
             | abstractions and what to do, with whatever current-
             | day/recent-tech forces you happen to have - that's the job
             | of your flag officers and their staffs. Though their
             | "checklists" will keep changing, as the war progresses.
        
               | falcor84 wrote:
               | Well said. But I'm still left with the question - have we
               | actually benefitted in any way from these two centuries
               | of military theory? If anything, it seems to me that wars
               | are less decisive, more prolonged and often more deadly
               | than they've been in Clausewitz's time.
               | 
               | If we treat kinetic warfare as a game, I suppose you
               | could argue that as in any other game, the more
               | knowledgeable and more experienced the players are, the
               | higher the likelihood of a draw. But then, seeing the
               | harm that this is doing to the world, should we not see
               | about changing the rules of war to reduce this likelihood
               | and make things more decisive again, with the aim of
               | reducing overall harm to civilians?
        
               | bell-cot wrote:
               | > have we actually benefitted in any way from these two
               | centuries of military theory?
               | 
               | "How to win" theories - when correct - favor those with
               | the motivation to take them seriously, and the smarts to
               | apply them correctly. I hope that overlaps nicely (in
               | Venn diagram terms) with your "we".
               | 
               | Plausibly, some wars have been prevented by military
               | theory - because a nation analyzed their situation, and
               | decided that starting a war would be a bad move.
               | 
               | > If anything, it seems to me that wars are less
               | decisive, more prolonged and often more deadly than
               | they've been in Clausewitz's time.
               | 
               | That's somewhat an effect of our larger nations and
               | populations, the industrialized basis of modern warfare,
               | and how heavily modern "get firearms, dig in" military
               | technology favors the defense. BUT - pre-Clausewitz wars
               | could also run a very long time -
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Year%27s_War or
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years'_War or
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_Year%27s_War or
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punic_Wars or ...
               | 
               | > If we treat kinetic warfare as a game...
               | 
               | Human "games" are generally balanced, or darn close. Vs.
               | very few modern wars were started by anyone who thought
               | things were nicely balanced.
               | 
               | > ...should we not see about changing the rules...
               | 
               | If you mean military tech or practices aimed at cutting
               | such harm - 'most every modern military is forever
               | working on that.* If you mean treaties banning land
               | mines, or napalm, or nerve gas, or whatever - when well
               | done, those can be quite useful. But in game terms, they
               | are (at most) just changing the costs (in economic,
               | human, and political terms) of making a "break the
               | treaty" move.
               | 
               | *Edit: Unfortunately, they're also working on some
               | conflicting goals - like "require even more firepower for
               | our enemies to defeat" and "apply even more firepower, to
               | defeat our enemies".
        
               | wat10000 wrote:
               | It seems to me that making wars longer and less decisive
               | helps weaker parties. Would the Vietnamese have preferred
               | a shorter and more decisive war against the US, or
               | Ukraine against Russia?
               | 
               | Shorter and more decisive wars also encourages war. If
               | there's the possibility of winning quickly and thoroughly
               | then you might choose to start a war. If you know it's
               | going to be a bloody and tedious affair no matter what,
               | you probably won't.
               | 
               | The modern world is remarkably peaceful compared to
               | centuries past. We're at the point where having an active
               | war of conquest in Europe is utterly shocking. Imagine
               | going back to 1925 and saying "I can't believe a European
               | country is taking parts of another European country by
               | force, it's nuts, nobody does that!" They used to call
               | that "Tuesday." The same is true in much of the rest of
               | the world. And why? A lot of it is because it just
               | doesn't work very well anymore. Russia has had very
               | little return for 3+ years of invading Ukraine. Israel
               | has spent two years invading Gaza so far and annexing the
               | territory looks unlikely regardless of the military
               | outcome. War used to be something a country might
               | plausibly benefit from starting in some situations. It's
               | really hard to make that case now, and that's how I want
               | it to be.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | People really don't have an appreciation for how
               | destructive dragging a "classical" army across the
               | countryside actually is since it hasn't happened much
               | since the advent of the railroad.
               | 
               | There's a reason it was considered newsworthy and bold
               | when Sherman did it and he was incredibly restrained
               | because he was operating in his own country.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | Military theory struggles to provide serious benefit
               | above trite things because the actual reality of war
               | changes every single day.
               | 
               | The most successful military theory is still the extreme
               | basics: Your troops will do better when they want to do
               | war. You need to feed troops and give them plenty of
               | ammo. Training matters.
               | 
               | Adapt or die
               | 
               | >But then, seeing the harm that this is doing to the
               | world, should we not see about changing the rules of war
               | to reduce this likelihood and make things more decisive
               | again, with the aim of reducing overall harm to
               | civilians?
               | 
               | Why would I follow your "rules of war" if it causes me to
               | lose? There is no global authority to force anyone to
               | follow rules, that's the whole point.
               | 
               | If there was, _there would be no war_.
        
         | WillAdams wrote:
         | The checklist is one's own ethics and morale guideposts ---
         | every interaction with others has to be done with a
         | consideration for the long-term strategic goals rather than
         | short-term gains --- Clausewitz argues that the will of the
         | people of whom the military is an extension of and their ethics
         | and mores have to be taken into account and all actions done in
         | accord with what will make an acceptable news story.
         | 
         | Consider the old adage:
         | 
         | >Never do something which you wouldn't want your grandparents
         | to read about in a newspaper, or to discuss with them over
         | Sunday dinner.
         | 
         | By extension, a military force should:
         | 
         | >Never do anything which when shown on the evening news would
         | result in a Congressional inquiry (or a War Crimes Tribunal).
        
           | falcor84 wrote:
           | I'm all for "Be excellent to each other", but in war, the
           | first and foremost consideration is whether the strategy is
           | effective. I'm not a big Clausewitz scholar, but I can't
           | imagine that he or any other general would accept a strategy
           | that prioritises the well-being of the opposing side to the
           | point of their own side admitting defeat.
           | 
           | As I see it, the only way that we can have "Rules of War" is
           | by proving that a war _can be won_ while maintaining them.
           | Otherwise (and unless you have a magic wand to make humans
           | non-aggressive), these rules are worse than useless, because
           | they limit the more ethical side, while making them lose to
           | the less ethical.
        
             | MichaelZuo wrote:
             | Anyone can pretend to have this and that ethics when its
             | comfortable and easy, its only under extreme duress when
             | all pretenders are revealed.
        
             | iamnothere wrote:
             | I think the lesson is that you can never be sure that you
             | will meet your military objectives--failure is always a
             | possibility--and the blowback from that failure will be
             | more limited if you appear to have conducted your war with
             | adequate respect for noncombatants.
             | 
             | Failing to conquer a nation (or depose its government, or
             | secure some land, or defend a border, or whatever your
             | objective is) may be shrugged off by your own nation, and
             | you may even be able to normalize relations after some
             | time. But if you abuse the noncombatant population, you
             | often create bitter enemies, generational hatred, and
             | global pressures on your society from third party
             | observers. In the worst case this eventually escalates to
             | mutual threats of genocide and total war.
             | 
             | Even if a nation wins a conflict through sheer brutality,
             | they may lose the occupation, or the reconstruction, or
             | good relations with important partners, or all of the
             | above. And they may create an enemy who will one day return
             | with a vengeance.
        
               | falcor84 wrote:
               | From my reading of history, there's no straightforward
               | correspondence between the ethics of the winning side and
               | its ability to have good relations with the losing side.
               | As a clear anti-example, in later stages of WW2, the
               | allied forces were very willing to engage in attacks on
               | population centers to achieve a decisive victory faster
               | (particularly: Dresden, Hamburg, Hiroshima and Nagasaki),
               | and the resulting relationships between the allied
               | countries and Germany and Japan could not have been more
               | positive even if the most optimistic poet in 1944 were to
               | written lyric poetry about the best possible future.
               | 
               | To be clear, I'm not advocating for cruelty, but I'm
               | wondering if going back to an approach of "surrender or
               | we'll kill you all" would save more lives than the
               | current situation of "do everything you can to avoid
               | doing too much harm at any one time", which ends up
               | prolonging conflicts indefinitely.
        
               | pjc50 wrote:
               | > resulting relationships between the allied countries
               | and Germany and Japan could not have been more positive
               | 
               | I think there may have been a "lesser evil" aspect to
               | that. The Allies had good relationships with _West_
               | Germany almost immediately after the war because they
               | were saving the defeated Germans from the USSR. Japan
               | reconciled with the USSR but there are still tensions
               | between Japan, Korea, and China over the war.
        
               | iamnothere wrote:
               | In both cases the aggressors were the first to engage in
               | atrocities, and their atrocities were much more severe
               | than those inflicted upon them. So both seem like a
               | unique case. Additionally, both were part of a global
               | conflict, which is uncommon. In a global conflict there
               | aren't many bystanders who can effectively implement
               | sanctions or apply diplomatic pressure.
               | 
               | > I'm wondering if going back to an approach of
               | "surrender or we'll kill you all" would save more lives
               | than the current situation
               | 
               | This is just as likely to provoke a "fight to the death"
               | response from the defender which is often enough to
               | prevent you from achieving your objectives. There are
               | very few large conflicts where the objective is simply
               | "eliminate the defenders".
        
             | paddleon wrote:
             | Friend, I have respect to where you are coming from, and
             | ask you to please think a little longer term.
             | 
             | You don't prioritize the well-being of the other side, but
             | you do want to avoid radicalizing them. The more reasons
             | they have to surrender, the more likely they are to
             | surrender, thus ending the conflict sooner AND keeping the
             | end conditions one they are comfortable living under.
             | 
             | If instead they feel they are in a fight to the death, then
             | you have a much tougher battle on your hand because they
             | will fight to the death. You'll still win (maybe) but it's
             | going to cost you in personelle and time and money.
             | 
             | Next aspect. Moral of your troops. Everyone wants to be a
             | hero, very few people join the military because they want
             | to kill. And those that are in it to kill tend to be toxic
             | leaders which is really bad for the rest of the team.
             | 
             | "Rules of war"/"rules of engagement" are methods that allow
             | your troops to maintain their humanity and sense of purpose
             | under horrific situations. You give up that and you are now
             | undercutting the fighting power of your own forces.
             | 
             | The military did not come up with these ideas to make
             | themselves weak. They came up with them and enforced them
             | because they are the source of strength.
        
               | falcor84 wrote:
               | But that's the question - how do you fight honorably and
               | win? How many examples can you offer (from any time in
               | history), where the winning side conducted the campaign
               | in a "gentlemanly fashion" (or however you want to call
               | it), won, and got the respect of the losing side and
               | lasting peace?
        
               | pjc50 wrote:
               | American Civil War?
        
               | paddleon wrote:
               | How does WWII strike you?
               | 
               | Notice that Germany and Japan are now strong allies.
               | 
               | Also notice that many people think the cause of WWII was
               | that the WWI surrender forced unsustainable terms on
               | Germany thus fueling the resentment that lead to WWII.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | > Also notice that many people think the cause of WWII
               | was that the WWI surrender forced unsustainable terms on
               | Germany thus fueling the resentment that lead to WWII.
               | 
               | And many historians dispute it. Partly because those
               | terms were standard for the time and better then what
               | Germans themselves planned to enact after they win.
               | 
               | And partly because the German population never believed
               | they lost the war. They believed they would winning
               | absent "stab in the back". That is why the allies
               | insisted on actually conquering Germany with no in
               | between solution. The victory had to be absolute.
        
               | paddleon wrote:
               | To address your concern-- if two people are fighting and
               | one thinks "I won't hit below the belt" that person is at
               | a tactical disadvantage. Even worse if they think the
               | other side has also agreed to that rule.
               | 
               | So in that sense you are absolutely correct.
               | 
               | But I invite you to think bigger. If one side lays siege
               | to another side's city, and offers terms of surrender,
               | the city needs to believe that the terms will be honored
               | otherwise they don't surrender.
               | 
               | Which is a large part of European history during the
               | period from the middle ages up until Napoleon figured out
               | how to use artillery, i.e. hundreds of years of examples
               | where "fighting honorably" was the winning strategy.
        
               | paddleon wrote:
               | and one more time, sorry, you triggered a rant.
               | 
               | if you can't count on your troops to be disciplined
               | enough to follow your rules of engagement, how can you
               | count on their discipline to follow your other orders? If
               | you cannot show them that you are also disciplined, how
               | do you expect them to maintain their respect for you as a
               | leader?
               | 
               | If you don't have honor, what are you fighting for? Troop
               | moral is what wins wars.
               | 
               | what's worse than death? Not having anything worth living
               | for.
               | 
               | very very few people find honor in being the most evil
               | person. And those few who do make very bad leaders; you
               | either avoid having them in your armed forces or you
               | limit their impact.
               | 
               | If one of your squadmates is an "I'll do anything to win"
               | person, how can you trust them not to ditch you if that
               | is their best survival option? Prisoner's dilema
               | situations are common in battle
               | 
               | I encourage you to visit a US military cemetery. You will
               | sometimes see shrines to the military virtues. Courage,
               | honor, pride, family, discipline all rank pretty high.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | In WWII the Allies didn't take any steps to avoid
               | radicalizing the other side. We implemented starvation
               | blockades and fire bombed cities, killing millions of
               | enemy civilians. They surrendered unconditionally because
               | they were utterly destroyed and had no more capability it
               | resist.
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | The broader point is that an unethical military victory
             | erodes your political support, which might lead you to win
             | the battle but lose the war.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | The obvious counter example is WWII. The victorious Allied
           | forces conducted widespread strategic bombing campaigns and
           | starvation blockades against Axis civilian targets. This was
           | highly effective and saved the lives of many Allied personnel
           | but judged against some modern criteria could have been
           | considered "war crimes": for example, see the fire bombing of
           | Dresden. None of the Allied leaders were put in front of a
           | tribunal because the strategy worked and Congress was fully
           | on board. The uncomfortable reality is that sometimes the
           | only practical way to win and preserve your own forces is to
           | massacre enemy civilians on an industrial scale.
        
             | TheCoelacanth wrote:
             | Whether or not strategic bombing was actually effective in
             | WWII is widely disputed.
        
         | wslh wrote:
         | Obviously, there is a plenty of content with this search:
         | _urban warfare site:il filetype:pdf_
        
         | pydry wrote:
         | Russia is following Clausewitzian principles pretty
         | assiduously.
         | 
         | They've got a set of 3 clear objectives and their tactics on
         | the ground, e.g.
         | 
         | * prioritizing attrition over the capture of territory.
         | 
         | * avoiding urban fighting where possible (e.g. a multi-year
         | avoidance of zaporizhia and kharkiv).
         | 
         | * minimizing civilian casualties.
         | 
         | Reflect not only the objectives, but the desire to avoid a lot
         | of the "messiness" the author referred to. The fact that
         | Ukrainian civilians fear busification more than drone strikes
         | is a testament to that.
         | 
         | None of the other parties (Ukraine, Hamas, Israel) appear to
         | follow clausewitzian logic, though.
        
           | wolvesechoes wrote:
           | You cannot say something that can be considered even sligthly
           | positive about Russia and its strategy.
        
           | psunavy03 wrote:
           | If this was remotely true, they'd have won the war already.
           | Russian operational and strategic decision-making has been a
           | bonfire of blazing incompetence since the beginning, which is
           | what led to things breaking down into WWI-style attritional
           | warfare.
           | 
           | Leaving the moral dimension aside, this entire war has been
           | basically two JV teams going at it since the beginning. NATO
           | would have wiped the floor with the Russian military based on
           | their performance so far, and it's surprising considering
           | what a juggernaut everyone claimed the Russian military was
           | pre-war.
        
             | pydry wrote:
             | >If this was remotely true, they'd have won the war
             | already.
             | 
             | They're invading the largest country in Europe armed by a
             | military bloc constituting 60% of world military spending.
             | Which part of that screamed quick to you?
             | 
             | >Russian operational and strategic decision-making has been
             | a bonfire of blazing incompetence
             | 
             | They somehow managed to achieve a body bag exchange ratio
             | of 44:1 and an extreme busification crisis in Ukraine with
             | a volunteer force.
             | 
             | It's a more impressive showing than Iraq.
             | 
             | >led to things breaking down into WWI-style attritional
             | warfare.
             | 
             | Putin announced the strategy of attritional warfare in
             | March 2022 after the land bridge was secured, so one could
             | hardly argue that this wasnt the plan.
             | 
             | Ukraine has done a good job of playing into their hands by
             | trying to cling on to land long past the point where it
             | becomes defensible and getting enveloped in cauldron after
             | cauldron.
             | 
             | Hence the issue where Ukrainian civilians are now more
             | afraid of their own government's roving kidnapping gangs
             | than living under Moscow's rule.
             | 
             | That part is probably going to be the real kicker in the
             | end.
        
               | psunavy03 wrote:
               | I suppose if you've completely swallowed Ruscist
               | propaganda, this all tracks.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Which part of that screamed quick to you?_
               | 
               | Congratulations, you've shown superior strategic
               | capability than Putin's entire pre-war military brass.
               | 
               | > _where Ukrainian civilians are now more afraid of their
               | own government 's roving kidnapping gangs than living
               | under Moscow's rule_
               | 
               | Was this written by AI?
        
               | pydry wrote:
               | >Congratulations, you've shown superior strategic
               | capability than Putin's entire pre-war military brass.
               | 
               | Congratulations on deluding yourself into believing he's
               | losing this war against all of the evidence I guess.
               | 
               | >Was this written by AI?
               | 
               | Have you used it so much that you cant distinguish it
               | from real life any more?
               | 
               | Try talking to some Ukrainians some time - ones that live
               | there.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _he 's losing this war against all of the evidence_
               | 
               | He's not winning on the timelines his military brass
               | originally predicted.
               | 
               | Putin and Ukraine are in a stalemate. That takes Russia
               | off the table as a near peer to the U.S.
               | 
               | > _Try talking to some Ukrainians some time_
               | 
               | I have. They're not on that part of TikTok.
        
               | omnee wrote:
               | The amount of total financial support provided to Ukraine
               | is lower than that which Russia has earned from the same
               | bloc. And military support is the smaller fraction of
               | this total. So, the support has been important but
               | without Ukraine deciding to resist Russia vehemently, the
               | Donbass would have long been conquered.
               | 
               | I do agree with your criticism that in certain places,
               | such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, Ukraine has lost many men
               | needlessly when in an indefensible position. Saying that,
               | Russia is making at best incremental gains for huge
               | casualties. They certainly aren't going to conquer the
               | rest of Donbass by this year or even by the 4th
               | anniversary.
        
               | pydry wrote:
               | >The amount of total financial support provided to
               | Ukraine is lower than that which Russia has earned from
               | the same bloc.
               | 
               | The amount of aid sent during the war totaled up to about
               | $300 billion, which is roughly equal to the Russian
               | military budget for the same period.
               | 
               | Thats not counting all of the "soon to be expired" stuff
               | they handed over in 2022/2023, declaring it was worth $0
               | because it would have been disposed of.
               | 
               | >Saying that, Russia is making at best incremental gains
               | for huge casualties.
               | 
               | For every body bag they get back theyve recently been
               | handing over 44.
               | 
               | Territorial gains are only relevant for them right now
               | insofar as it serves their overriding goal of attrition.
               | 
               | >They certainly aren't going to conquer the rest of
               | Donbass by this year or even by the 4th anniversary.
               | 
               | If it serves the overall goal of attrition im sure theyd
               | be happy to drag it out beyond February. Theyre not on a
               | deadline.
               | 
               | The problem is that the more the Ukrainian army gets
               | hollowed out by attrition now, the faster and more
               | complete the eventual collapse will be.
        
           | TiredOfLife wrote:
           | > minimizing civilian casualties
           | 
           | Russians target civilian objects - apartment complexes,
           | hospitals, metro entrances, passenger trains. Constantly do a
           | second strike when emergency crews arrive. They use drones to
           | hunt civillians who live near frontline.
        
             | pydry wrote:
             | Gazan civilian casualties eclipsed Ukrainian within about
             | two weeks.
             | 
             | Militaries routinely use civilian objects for military
             | purposes, so that these objects are targeted isnt
             | meaningful in and of itself - like the time a pizza
             | restaurant was targeted and it later emerged that the
             | restaurant hosted a rather large military gathering.
        
               | TheCoelacanth wrote:
               | Obviously because Gaza is virtually defenseless and
               | Israel has roughly one active duty soldier for every
               | seven adults in Gaza. It's less of a war than just a
               | massacre.
               | 
               | Ukraine and Russia on the other hand are relatively
               | evenly matched, so killing civilians is much harder.
        
           | weregiraffe wrote:
           | Lol. They don't call Russians orcs for nothing, you know.
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | I think you can explain Russia's poor performance somewhat
           | from Clausewitzian principles:
           | 
           | "primordial violence, hatred, and enmity" - weren't really
           | there - most Russians viewed Ukrainians as their brethren.
           | 
           | "Chance and Probability" - the Russians have proved pretty
           | inflexible. I mean after they failed to take Kyiv in three
           | days they could have gone home and saved a lot of bother,
           | maybe keeping some lands in the south.
           | 
           | "Reason and Policy" - didn't make much sense. Few Russians
           | wanted to go to war so Putin could lord it over the
           | Ukrainians as well as the Russians. This looks more like a
           | political move by Putin to keep power.
           | 
           | If Russia had actually had a clear objective to annex Ukraine
           | they could have mobilised and knocked them out in no time but
           | instead we have a mess and kind of stalemate which to me
           | seems to be moving in Ukraine's favour as they can now hit
           | most targets inside Russia.
        
         | corimaith wrote:
         | Also probably to note that much of the "ideological" battles in
         | early Europe, whether it was legitimacy for the throne or
         | religious conflicts tended to end in sobering sieges not unlike
         | Gaza. The difference is they actually all did starve to death
         | when they refused to surrender. Siege of La Rochelle as the
         | climatic battle betwen King Louis and the Huguenots, the
         | population declined from 22k to 5k, comparable to Gaza. But the
         | Huguenots really did loose in the end when they were too weak
         | to resist entry.
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | Clausewitz's writing (and especially _On War_ ) is very
         | abstract and philosophical, to the point that when he mentions
         | specifics it's almost incongruous.
         | 
         | There's a bit in _On War_ where he descends from a lofty
         | discussion on what victory means and how generals should should
         | figure that out before the battle starts, to state abruptly
         | that chasing a fleeing enemy is a bad idea, particularly
         | through a forest, because it 's a good way to get your forces
         | strung out and cut down. This part is so vivid I've often
         | wondered if he or a superior officer succumbed to enthusiasm
         | and Clausewitz learned this lesson the hard way.
         | 
         | One problem with reading Clausewitz is that he was writing in
         | an era of large set-piece battles where you had blocks of
         | infantry that still marched around in square formation, cavalry
         | charges and so on, though centuries-long practices were
         | changing thanks to Napoleon's tactical innovations. Clausewitz
         | writes in generalities rather than specifics because commanders
         | of the time were very familiar with standard dispositions and
         | didn't need them laid out in detail, and likewise strategic
         | ideas like trying to ravage your enemy's supply lines and
         | bypass forts hadn't changed significantly in millenia.
         | Clausewitz was trying to give shape to the questions of whether
         | and why one should go to war in the first place, how to break
         | out of escalatory cycles so you don't end up isolated and so
         | on. I often think he has more to say to the fields of
         | international relations/statecraft than to pure military
         | analysis.
         | 
         | If you prefer something less abstract there's a good small book
         | by Machiavelli on the topic (confusingly also titled _On War_ ;
         | easiest to find as a double-volume with _The Prince_ ) and of
         | course Sun Tzu. I think the Samuel Griffith translation is the
         | best one because Griffith was a marine officer in addition to
         | being a scholar. Lidell-Hart's book _Strategy_ also stands up
         | to repeat reading and functions as a great roadmap of European
         | military history.
        
       | ckemere wrote:
       | In the case of the active conflicts (Gaza, Ukraine), it seems
       | that there is a strong disconnect between internal-facing media
       | and political will and external facing media on potential allies.
       | 
       | I would have liked some more unpacking of how this disconnect
       | would have been interpreted by Clausewitz.
       | 
       | It also struck me that as an outsider to these conflicts, I
       | assume that the combatants are acting rationally from the
       | perspective of the adage ("No one starts a war--or rather, no one
       | in his senses ought to do so--without first being clear in his
       | mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to
       | conduct it") and I judge the morality based on the inferred
       | intent. That would also have been interesting to unpack...
        
       | Jimmy-Corleone wrote:
       | Our "government" ( who ever "our" pertains to within the US) has
       | been lied always lied and will continuing on lying to the people
       | within the American society.... But so long as the people accept
       | They will continuing on doing
        
       | mamonster wrote:
       | > Victory in this environment requires more than technological
       | superiority. It demands clarity of purpose, coherence between
       | means and ends, disciplined execution, and moral restraint--the
       | very fundamentals Clausewitz insisted upon. These are not
       | optional in the urban century. They are decisive.
       | 
       | If I learned anything from both Gaza and Ukraine, it's that its
       | the complete opposite that's true. You go clearing from house to
       | house, some AQB fighter is gonna pop-out of a tunnel and pop an
       | IED into your Merkava tank. You do that enough times and your
       | army's morale is going to be shot. You wanna win, you have to
       | bomb dual use assets and only fight when its needed. If you can
       | do a hunger siege, flood by bombing a dam or something else, then
       | do that.
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | "make a desert and call it peace". There's still two million
         | people in Gaza.
        
           | jedimind wrote:
           | Notice how he's euphemistically paraphrasing the genocidal
           | approach ("hunger siege" => starving the besieged native
           | population) that Israel has already been using from the very
           | start[1][2]. He is writing it from the POV of the IDF (e.g.
           | usage of merkava, references to tunnels) - hence he is
           | obviously a Zionist. So he's trying to sell the false
           | narrative that the IDF wasn't already genocidal from the very
           | start, which the mountains of evidence easily disprove. They
           | only advocate for such heinous measures, because they assume
           | that they will permanently have the upper hand. As soon as
           | the tables turn and he realizes that his justification for
           | such an approach would suddenly benefit the natives they
           | wanted to ethnically-cleanse, then he would suddenly flip-
           | flop on his opinion and would consider such an approach
           | immoral and unethical - to avoid having to taste the same
           | medicine that he has been recommending for others.
           | 
           | [1] Israel/OPT: New testimonies provide compelling evidence
           | that Israel's starvation of Palestinians in Gaza is a
           | deliberate policy
           | 
           | https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/08/israel-opt-
           | ne...
           | 
           | [2] 13 December _2023_ : "US President Joe Biden has said
           | Israel is starting to lose global support over its
           | _indiscriminate bombing_ of Gaza. "
           | 
           | https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67699255
        
         | TheCoelacanth wrote:
         | You are just giving an example of how lack of "coherence
         | between means and ends" leads to failure.
         | 
         | A military occupation (means) is not an effective way to
         | achieve lasting control over the civilian population (ends)
         | unless much of the population is already on your side, so it is
         | foolish to try to use those means to achieve those ends.
         | 
         | Russia has also been hurt quite badly by lack of moral
         | restraint in the war against Ukraine (which in the context
         | Clausewitz used it I believe means more whether you have
         | rational control of your actions than whether your actions are
         | "good" or "bad"). Attacking civilians is usually extremely
         | ineffective at achieving anything other than making leaders
         | feel good that they are hurting their enemies and usually just
         | hardens the enemy's resolve to continue fighting.
        
           | aerostable_slug wrote:
           | I think Russia has been quite restrained. I'm not defending
           | them in any way, but many Ukrainians still have electric
           | power, running water, and other trappings of modern society.
           | If the present Russian regime chose otherwise I'm not sure
           | that they would. It doesn't take a great deal of precision to
           | mission-kill water works and other civil infrastructure that
           | has survived in rear areas.
           | 
           | It seems to me both sides have been sending signals with
           | their respective attacks on 'homeland' targets, rather than
           | going fully gloves-off. Agreed that it's not working out for
           | the Russians.
        
             | AuthAuth wrote:
             | Russia targets Ukrainian Infra. It goes down and ukraine
             | brings it back online. They also have air defense assets
             | protecting key infra. Russia doesnt leave it up because of
             | moral reasons, they're doing what they can to win and that
             | includes attacking the grid.
        
         | EA-3167 wrote:
         | It's essentially just this; in urban warfare with entrenched
         | enemies you can choose who suffers, but not whether there's
         | suffering. The endeavor is inherently horrific, and that horror
         | in both the cases of Ukraine and Gaza are dictated by the
         | decision by one party to use the urban environment to maximize
         | casualties. Whether it's the Russians in Bucha or Hamas in
         | tunnels under schools, both are fully aware of what they're
         | doing.
         | 
         | Unfortunately the mentality of most people has been grossly
         | oversimplified to the point of staging everything as a
         | melodrama.
        
       | vonnik wrote:
       | I found this to be a remarkably uninsightful work. He somehow
       | negates the inherent drama of war with the milquetoast prose and
       | myopia of an academic. Much of what he says is in fact false,
       | presumably because he is far from the action and relies on
       | Clausewitz as a crutch for thought.
       | 
       | The key nodes to control have to do with supply chain, energy and
       | information; ie depots, road and rail, bridges, factories,
       | substations and data centers or satellites.
       | 
       | Ukraine has severely weakened Russia by attacking those points,
       | as Russia has Ukraine.
       | 
       | Beijing could well defeat Taiwan (and the US by proxy) by
       | controlling its sea lanes, cutting its cables, and jamming its
       | radio spectrum.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | China might be able to blockade Taiwan for a while but China's
         | own SLOC are far more vulnerable. They are dependent on
         | critical food, energy, and mineral imports -- most of which
         | pass through a few choke points where they are still unable to
         | project sustained naval power. The US and its allies could cut
         | those off at any time and China lacks the internal reserves to
         | survive a long blockade.
        
       | maxglute wrote:
       | Manufacturing consent for war is important, news at 11. Snark
       | aside, it's getting harder to generate moral high ground to
       | maintain the facade of LIO supremecy. The problem with modern
       | American imperialism (and European colonialism) is it's hard to
       | sell to your (multicultural) people we need to to sacrifice blood
       | and treasure to remove/occupy bad/inferior people on the other
       | side of the world. More after decades of mass media recognizing
       | you're actually sacrificing blood and treasure to collateral
       | damage a bunch of civilians. More so when the spoils of war seems
       | meagre relative to cost, and all the resources prosecuting one
       | could have been focused on domestic serenity. Clausewitz (mostly)
       | lived in a context of fighting for survival/dominance against
       | neighbours, which I guess is apt for RU/UK, ISR/GAZA discussed in
       | this article but the actual belligerants in either war are less
       | sustained by morality / or need moral cover as realist interest.
       | Who needs moral cover is however their sponsors, and really we're
       | talking about US+co who needs to convince constitutents of the
       | moral cause to support proxy wars, instead of just admitting: we
       | get to cripple RU by sacrificing UKR, or keeping MENA influence
       | is worth starving and killing tons of kids.
        
       | wolvesechoes wrote:
       | There is quite obvious reason that Israel does what it does -
       | commiting an equivalent of mass child sacrifice is quite good at
       | uniting Israelis even if lot of them protest against that.
       | 
       | If you are hated by everyone outside your tribe, you will stick
       | with your tribe, because you have lost other options.
        
       | themafia wrote:
       | > "war is not merely an act of policy but a true political
       | instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, carried on
       | by other means."
       | 
       | If _and only if_ War is utilized as a last resort. Otherwise this
       | is self serving nonsense used by the political class which
       | utilizes war to orient the population and to maintain a dark and
       | grotesque part of our economy.
       | 
       | It's 2025. Institutions like the "Modern War Institute" not just
       | existing but also pumping out this outdated amoral claptrap is
       | obscenely depressing.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _If _and only if_ War is utilized as a last resort_
         | 
         | Nope, always. War is politics by violent memes. Pretending it
         | is only used in the last case is incredibly dangerous, since it
         | ignores both provocation and deterrence.
        
           | themafia wrote:
           | Then that's not "political intercourse." I understand that
           | war is not actually used as described in the quote. Which is
           | the point. These military ideas of war are romantic
           | fantasies.
           | 
           | Although I'm sure the victims of all the holocausts in human
           | history will be heartened to know that it was just politics
           | by a different means.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _that 's not "political intercourse"_
             | 
             | The full phrase is "the political intercourse of
             | Governments and nations" [1].
             | 
             | Clausewitz's point is that if "such intercourse is broken
             | off by war, and that a totally different state of things
             | ensues, subject to no laws but its own," then not only does
             | international law become irrelevant, but diplomatic
             | resolutions to war impossible. Rejecting that war is a
             | continuation of politics underwrites atrocity. (If war only
             | happens as a last resort, and you are at war, it follows
             | that there is no further recourse than war.)
             | 
             | > _These military ideas of war are romantic fantasies_
             | 
             | Clausewitz wasn't a military romanticist. To the extent
             | here are romantic ideals at play, it's in pretending war
             | _isn 't_ a continuation of politics.
             | 
             | > _I 'm sure the victims of all the holocausts in human
             | history will be heartened_
             | 
             | Why is this relevant to the correctness of the theory?
             | Should we reject the heat-death hypothsis because it's
             | uncomfortable?
             | 
             | I've already argued why rejecting war as a continuation of
             | politics rejects diplomacy as a way to end wars. The Third
             | Reich is a good demonstrator for why rejecting the
             | political component of war is dangerous on the other end.
             | Appeasing Hitler makes sense if parties will only pursue
             | war as a last resort. Acknowledging his political
             | interests, on the other hand, would have shown why--in that
             | case--appeasement was destabilising.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.clausewitzstudies.org/readings/OnWar1873/BK
             | 8ch06...
        
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