[HN Gopher] GenAI Predictions
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       GenAI Predictions
        
       Author : FromTheArchives
       Score  : 18 points
       Date   : 2025-10-01 20:50 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.tbray.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.tbray.org)
        
       | aetherson wrote:
       | These aren't predictions. They're vague sentiment.
       | 
       | It would be interesting if the author were to try to express
       | these with a timeline in a way that is falsifiable, optionally
       | with some kind of measure of certainty.
        
       | dgs_sgd wrote:
       | I have to disagree with the author's argument for why
       | hallucinations won't get solved:
       | 
       | > If there were a way to eliminate the hallucinations, somebody
       | already would have. An army of smart, experienced people people,
       | backed by effectively infinite funds, have been hunting this
       | white whale for years now without much success.
       | 
       | Research has been going on for what, like 10 years in earnest,
       | and the author thinks they might as well throw in the towel? I
       | feel like the interest in solving this problem will only grow!
       | And there's a strong incentive to solve it for the important use
       | cases where a non-zero hallucination rate isn't good enough.
       | 
       | Plus, scholars have worked on problems for _far far_ longer and
       | eventually solved them, e.g. Fermat's Last Theorem took hundreds
       | of years to solve.
        
       | m_a_g wrote:
       | There are many people who are adamant that this bubble will
       | burst. Those who believe that, did you sell all your S&P 500
       | stocks?
       | 
       | I have many friends and coworkers who think the AI race will come
       | crashing down. But they are not selling their stocks. I'd love
       | for some AI skeptic to help me make sense of this mess.
        
       | justcallmejm wrote:
       | "panoply of grifters and chancers and financial engineers" --
       | accurate
       | 
       | Yet, let's look at intelligence for a sec... it's been evolving
       | for quite some time and isn't stopping at humans. Humans are
       | building intelligence at a rate far faster than biological
       | evolution. It is almost inevitable (pending humans wiping
       | ourselves out by any number of catastrophic failures of
       | governance) that we will build intelligence that supersedes our
       | own. Yeah?
       | 
       | I'm a co-founder of Aloe (https://aloe.inc) - a generalist AI
       | that recently became state of the art on the GAIA benchmark. As I
       | was hand-checking the output of our test to ensure Aloe had done
       | the task, not just found answers in some leak online, I had a
       | real come-to-Jesus moment when it hit that this agent is already
       | a better problem-solver than most of the adults I've worked with
       | in my career. And this is the floor of its capability.
       | 
       | It is a humbling moment to be human. The few humans at the helms
       | of companies developing these technologies will inevitably
       | reshape the trajectory of humanity.
        
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