[HN Gopher] Boeing has started working on a 737 MAX replacement
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Boeing has started working on a 737 MAX replacement
        
       Alt links: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-reportedly-
       working-737..., https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/boeing-
       developing-new-si...
        
       Author : bookofjoe
       Score  : 158 points
       Date   : 2025-09-30 17:31 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | advisedwang wrote:
       | Non-paywall: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-
       | defense/boeing-st...
        
       | advisedwang wrote:
       | > new single-aisle airplane
       | 
       | Does that mean it's not trying to be "another 737" but actually a
       | truely new type?
        
         | selectodude wrote:
         | They already did that, it's called the 757 and nobody bought
         | it. Maybe we'll get a 757 MAX with MCAS to make it type
         | compatible with the 737.
        
           | winstonp wrote:
           | AFAIK the 757 frame is too heavy to be powered by the LEAP
           | engines. Those planes were powered by a class of engine
           | between the old 737 and 777 engines, and nobody makes them
           | anymore because they're not in demand, so a 757 MAX is just
           | not financially viable.
        
             | rawgabbit wrote:
             | The article said Boeing is talking to Rolls Royce for the
             | new plane. American Airlines used to have a fleet of 757s
             | powered by Rolls Royce engines assembled in Montreal
             | Canada. I used to work on those engines many many years
             | ago.
        
             | selectodude wrote:
             | You can use the most powerful LEAP engine on a lightened
             | 757 "neo", it'll just be a complete dog like the A321 and
             | not a rocket ship like the old one.
        
               | KerrAvon wrote:
               | Just 'cause I'm totally ignorant about this stuff: why is
               | that?
        
               | quibono wrote:
               | The A321 is an elongated/bigger version of the A320.
               | Similarly to the B737 - which also went through this
               | process a few times (e.g. compare the B737-400 vs
               | B737-600 vs B737-MAX) - it means the engines are moving a
               | heavier&bigger plane.
        
       | rangerjoe wrote:
       | Will it still be controlled by dual redundant 80286 chips like
       | the MAX, with its software outsourced to the Indian 3rd party
       | contractor?
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | Is the MAX really using a 286 CPU? Why would they pick that for
         | a plane launched in 2014. I get that it's based on the 737 Next
         | Gen, but they just opted to not update the electronics?
        
           | rkomorn wrote:
           | The more you change, the more you need to recertify, the more
           | it costs, the more time it takes, the less your shareholders
           | profit.
        
             | tracker1 wrote:
             | Would probably add that it likely has reliable real-time
             | constraints as part of this. While I can imagine simpler
             | ARM and RISC-V chips having similar properties, depending
             | on the application it would likely be hard to certify any
             | modern CPU design for a lot of medical or aerospace
             | applications.
        
             | mrweasel wrote:
             | Make you wonder how long management figured they can keep
             | using ancient technology, just to avoid updating
             | certifications.
        
               | rkomorn wrote:
               | At a dinner with a team of Airbus folks we were working
               | with at a previous job, they talked about how difficult
               | it was getting to source CPUs for the A320 after 30
               | years.
               | 
               | It's definitely a "if it ain't broke don't fix it" thing,
               | but I ask myself a similar question: at some point
               | whoever is producing these chips is going to stop finding
               | it worthwhile and end production, no?
               | 
               | But then I also assume the people who work on these
               | things know arguably infinitely more than I do.
        
               | karmelapple wrote:
               | They do :)
               | 
               | And if the companies who produce these chips continue to
               | make a healthy profit, why would they stop?
        
               | rkomorn wrote:
               | The scenario that comes to my mind is: these chips had a
               | lot of potential customers 30 years ago, and now may be
               | down to just one or two customers left buying too few
               | units to make it worthwhile.
               | 
               | Presumably, they have "guaranteed" buyers but also, if
               | so, why would Airbus have issues sourcing CPUs, for
               | example?
        
               | throw0101c wrote:
               | > [...] _too few units to make it worthwhile._
               | 
               | Not if the price of those units are _really_ high.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Forever if someone keeps making new chips.
        
             | karmelapple wrote:
             | This is the answer, and correct in many ways.
             | 
             | If the chips are cheap and easily available, and you know
             | their failure modes, and they've been field tested for
             | decades, why change?
             | 
             | It's very different from many software development
             | attitudes, but remember that airframe manufacturers and
             | avionics companies employ many people just to calculate
             | risk and failure rates. The failure rates of these things
             | are critical to the safety of your airframe.
        
             | mschuster91 wrote:
             | That mindset is inevitably going to leave you in a ditch
             | though. Either you run out of suppliers for the chip that
             | are willing to produce on a shitty inefficient old node
             | under certified conditions (mostly because it inevitably
             | gets really expensive to keep the machines for production
             | running!), or you run out of developers able and willing to
             | write code for these old designs where the toolchain
             | probably is also certified and has nowhere near close to
             | the bells and whistles of modern IDEs or the automatic
             | benefits from modern programming languages such as pointer
             | safety.
             | 
             |  _Anything_ should have a replacement budget and timeline
             | attached.
        
               | rkomorn wrote:
               | That's my gut feeling too but... I don't build certified
               | airliners with lifespans of multiple decades for a living
               | (or run companies that do).
               | 
               | All I know from having worked in an Airbus subsidiary for
               | a couple of years is that their world is nothing like
               | mine.
        
       | d_silin wrote:
       | 737 with fly-by-wire avionics would be what 737MAX should have
       | been.
        
         | lostlogin wrote:
         | Cancelled?
        
         | Havoc wrote:
         | Don't think it would have sold - behind the airbus neos on fuel
         | efficiency. Hence the janky mcas solution to make the reengine
         | work
        
       | nostrademons wrote:
       | It'll be interesting to see if they still _can_ design and build
       | a new ground-up airplane design. The last all-new design was the
       | 787, initiated in 2003 and launched in 2009, and its design was
       | fraught with problems. Before then was the 777 in the early 90s
       | (pre-McDonnell takeover), and the 757 /767 in the early 80s.
       | 
       | There's a phenomena that ofter occurs with large organizations
       | where once their markets mature, everybody who _can_ build a
       | product end-to-end leaves or gets forced out, leaving only people
       | with highly specialized maintenance skillsets. The former group
       | has no work to do, after all, so why should the company keep them
       | around? But then if the market ecosystem shifts, and a new
       | product is necessary, they no longer have the capacity to build
       | ground-up new products. All those people have left, and won 't
       | come anywhere near the company.
       | 
       | Steve Jobs spoke eloquently about this phenomena in an old
       | interview:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1WrHH-WtaA
        
         | scrlk wrote:
         | To add to this & the Jobs interview - an oil industry proverb:
         | a healthy oil company has a geologist in charge, a mature one
         | has an engineer in charge, a declining one has an accountant in
         | charge, and a dying one has a lawyer in charge.
        
           | SirHumphrey wrote:
           | A bit ironic though because the CEO of Boing during their
           | best years was William McPherson Allen, a lawyer.
        
             | sitharus wrote:
             | He initially turned down the job because he felt that a
             | lawyer wasn't the right person to run an engineering
             | company, and from reports of people who worked with him he
             | knew his knowledge limits and listened to the engineers. He
             | took serious risks with the 707 and 747 projects because he
             | trusted the people who understood the technology.
             | 
             | MBAs and final-gasp lawyers concentrate on making the
             | reported number go up in the short term, they won't take a
             | hit now for a payoff in ten years.
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | There are always people who work out despite common sense
             | saying they shouldn't that doesn't mean common sense is
             | wrong, it just means we don't understand what the real
             | factors are.
        
           | pavlov wrote:
           | Nokia's CEO between 2006 and 2010 was their former chief
           | lawyer.
           | 
           | It's like they knew they were dying even before Apple
           | delivered the actual blow.
        
             | davidkwast wrote:
             | Nokia is the best case study of what not to do. In 2005
             | Nokia launched the 770 Internet Tablet. It was the
             | groundwork for the modern smartphone. But the management
             | did not allow it to have a GSM modem. So it was not a
             | smartphone. Only after the iPhone Nokia launched the N900
             | but it was too late. Nokia did not believe in touch screen
             | too.
        
               | zdw wrote:
               | The 770 and Maemo environment were pretty amazing back in
               | the day - high resolution screen for the time, but a
               | somewhat laggy interface given the compute available at
               | the time. Hardware was somewhat compromised - the half-
               | height MMC storage expansion was particularly difficult
               | to find. I still have one sitting around somewhere.
               | 
               | It did support touch, with a stylus built in - I forget
               | if the stylus was needed or if you could use your bare
               | fingers.
        
               | davidkwast wrote:
               | True. But Nokia could do many improvements before Apple
               | launched iPhone. But Nokia decided to stay only with
               | Symbian without touch. And we had to wait 4 years to
               | Android show what a Linux with Java smartphone would be.
               | And we saw Nokia going down with Microsoft. It was
               | interesting times back then.
        
               | tim-- wrote:
               | Interesting times indeed. It was also just before the
               | Nokia acquisition that Microsoft was selling their first
               | Android phone (under the Nokia brand) so they could see
               | the winds of change.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_X
        
               | foobarian wrote:
               | I got to briefly try a N900 back in the day. When it
               | powered on you would briefly see the raw X background
               | stipple and the x-shaped cursor before the window manager
               | loaded. I liked the nerd factor of it but I knew at that
               | point the company was in the weeds.
        
               | nicce wrote:
               | They also threw away Meego, which was praised for UI and
               | design.. and it was Linux.. not often heard in the same
               | phrase. Build with Qt.
        
               | noosphr wrote:
               | I have an n9 that I turn on once in a blue moon.
               | 
               | Even today it looks better than any of the major mobile
               | OSs, is more responsive and just _feels_ better to hold
               | and use.
               | 
               | The road not taken.
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | > with large organizations where once their markets mature,
         | everybody who can build a product end-to-end leaves or gets
         | forced out, leaving only people with highly specialized
         | maintenance skillsets
         | 
         | It's not just building a product end-to-end. Tim Cook is a
         | supply-chain guy. He knows how to build a product. What he
         | doesn't know how is how to design a new one. This is the reason
         | that all of the "new" stuff that has come out of Apple since
         | Cook took over is actually just riffs on old degrees of
         | freedom: thinner phones. New colors. Different UI skins. The
         | only thing I can think of that Apple has done in the Cook era
         | that was actually new was the Apple Vision Pro. That was really
         | cool, but it was a commercial disaster, the modern equivalent
         | of the Lisa or the NeXT.
         | 
         | Jobs took Lisa and NeXT failures and turned them into the Mac
         | and OS/X. There is no hint that Apple intends to do anything
         | with the Vision Pro, and they've already been scooped by Meta.
        
           | Gee101 wrote:
           | What about the Apple watch?
        
             | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
             | The Apple Watch seems to have suddenly found its pace.
             | 
             | I am seeing them _everywhere_ , around here.
             | 
             | I suspect that quite a few are SEs and maybe last year's
             | model, but I do see a lot of Ultras.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Battery does seem to be a limiting factor and I don't
               | wear mine unless I'm doing activities where it's
               | especially useful. But, for a lot of people, something
               | else to charge doesn't seem a big impediment.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | When we heard young people don't wear watches any longer at
             | the time. And certainly many people didn't think yet
             | another bluetooth earphones were anything to get excited
             | about.
             | 
             | AR does seem to be a potential big deal. But the tech and
             | implementation probably has a ways to go before it's
             | interesting outside of a bubble audience.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | If people don't wear watches, they probably wouldn't wear
               | scuba gear either. Unless AR comes in rose tinted
               | glasses.
        
             | petre wrote:
             | What about it? I'm not going to recharge my watch every
             | night. Yawn.
        
               | spookie wrote:
               | Yeah, we have basically infinite battery on "dumb"
               | watches, as long as you use them. You know, so you can
               | rely on them.
               | 
               | The Apple Watch to me just seems like a worse earbud. If
               | I want to be that interrupted in tge middle of something
               | might as well hear the thing and not have to look at it.
        
               | macintux wrote:
               | I never had any interest in wearing a watch to bed. Still
               | don't, although theoretically I could charge it for a few
               | minutes in the evening to make that possible.
               | 
               | The Watch has helped me lose 30 pounds, has significantly
               | helped motivate me to exercise more, and has let me keep
               | my phone on silent mode for at least 5 years now. For me,
               | it's a great device.
        
               | jen20 wrote:
               | I don't personally sleep with my watch on, so I just
               | charge it every night. But it actually only takes about
               | 15 mins to charge a decent amount, so if I did I'd just
               | charge it while I was in the shower...
        
           | intrasight wrote:
           | What about Airpods?
           | 
           | Also, I expect Vision to eventually be a massive success.
        
             | petre wrote:
             | The basic Airpods are crap, noise cancellation is useless,
             | they fall off the ear. You're better off with Sony or JBL
             | at half the price. The Pro ones are good.
        
               | chatmasta wrote:
               | I don't have AirPods basic but I've got 2nd gen AirPods
               | Pro and they're one of the best products I've bought in a
               | long time. I'd put them up there with my 2011 kindle I
               | still use every day.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | You have to have the right ear form for ordinary AirPods.
               | Comes with the design, sadly.
        
               | busymom0 wrote:
               | I don't own AirPods but it is a huge commercial success.
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | They were designed so that they'd get easily lost and
               | they prevent you from replacing the battery. With enough
               | marketing even a low quality product like airpods can be
               | a commercial success
               | 
               | https://apple.slashdot.org/story/19/05/12/0256259/why-
               | airpod...
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | I got the pros. I think they are great in every way
               | except (1) they fall out of my ears, but that's cause
               | I've got a genetic polymorphism that makes me make crazy
               | amounts of earwax and my doctor warned me that one of
               | these days I'm gonna wake up and not be able to hear
               | cause my ears are clogged --- I don't wear them outside,
               | I just wear them where having them fall out is not a
               | problem, (2) the noise cancellation is supposed to turn
               | itself off when I talk to somebody and it seems like they
               | always turn it off whenever I mutter to myself, but when
               | I actually talk to somebody, they don't, and (3) young
               | people these days walk around with AirPods in and they
               | just can't hear you. It's just like they're 95 years old.
        
           | garyrob wrote:
           | > There is no hint that Apple intends to do anything with the
           | Vision Pro, and they've already been scooped by Meta.
           | 
           | I expect that's exactly what they have in mind. If they're
           | successful, Meta's project will be to Apple's what early MP3
           | players were to the original iPod.
           | 
           | The jury is out on whether Cook can pull it off.
        
             | petre wrote:
             | That's why they bought up Luxotica shares. Because scuba
             | gear is for scuba diving. Even if it's white, it's still
             | scuba gear. Remember the PDAs with resitive screens and
             | styluses? They were a lot more convenient than scuba gear.
        
             | cosmic_cheese wrote:
             | It's more likely than not that they will, in my opinion. As
             | an owner of both an AVP and Quest 2, the former is a lot
             | nicer to use than the latter with the exception of VR
             | games, and my hunch is that Valve is going to eat Meta's
             | lunch for gaming with Deckard (which will be at least as
             | good as the Quest 3, but much more open, paired with a
             | vastly more populated and popular marketplace, probably
             | won't treat PCVR as an afterthought, and won't be saddled
             | with the Quest's somewhat painful sideloading experience).
             | 
             | The main hurdle Apple faces is bringing costs down and
             | improving the AVP's form factor, both of which are well
             | within their capabilities.
        
               | spookie wrote:
               | Having experienced the Quest Pro I can say that Apple has
               | absolutely no clue what the focus should be on.
               | 
               | Hint: being able to grab a well balanced headset that is
               | so easy to put on as a cap. This makes you not think if
               | you are going to watch or play in VR, you just do it.
        
               | cosmic_cheese wrote:
               | I think Apple knows exactly what they're doing, but was
               | forced to choose between making the product more about
               | demonstrating their tech and end goals or being mass
               | market mediocre and chose the former. Nobody would've
               | cared about what amounted to a Quest wrapped in a
               | Cupertino design with similar performance, specs, etc.
               | It's very much in line with the original iPod and iPhone,
               | both of which took a few iterations before becoming
               | category-defining hits. It'll probably be the second or
               | third-gen Vision device that'll fix the AVP's nits while
               | also keeping or improving upon its strong points.
        
           | eastbound wrote:
           | There's a beautiful conference (which I've lost) saying that
           | science and technology can regress. We always talk about "the
           | progress" but things do regress all the time; Tests I've
           | cleared for employment can't be passed by newcomers, the NASA
           | wouldn't be able to put a rocket on the moon today, and there
           | is no downloadable Jira competitor anymore.
           | 
           | In fact the speed of innovation is, pretty much, equal to the
           | speed of maintenance. Nothing gets maintained, it's either
           | new or collapsing, but no-one enjoys the middle part. Which
           | is sad. It's a form of inflation.
           | 
           | Boeing is perfectly right to design a new plane right now.
           | Engineers who interned on the 787 have bought a house on the
           | countryside a few years ago.
        
             | pixl97 wrote:
             | This here should trigger a red flag when you hear anyone
             | say "The government should be run like a business".
             | 
             | Businesses kill themselves all the time from the loss of
             | institutional knowledge. We see stuff like "government
             | spends X a year paying people Y to build almost no product
             | Z". Instead, we're paying people Y to be ready to build Z
             | when something goes terribly wrong like war.
        
               | charcircuit wrote:
               | When they say run like a business that doesn't mean that
               | it should be done like a reckless business. Plenty of
               | businesses invest into things like disaster recovery or
               | insurance which they may never need.
        
               | selectodude wrote:
               | Running like a business means providing services to
               | profitable customers. This is, surprisingly, the exact
               | opposite of what government is supposed to be doing. The
               | USPS would be plenty profitable if it didn't have to
               | maintain the infrastructure to deliver a letter from
               | Honolulu to Barrow for 50 cents. Medicare? Not the best
               | business model. Roads? Forget it.
        
               | charcircuit wrote:
               | >means providing services to profitable customers
               | 
               | So Uber wasn't a business for its first 14 years? There
               | are more objectives a business can have than maximize
               | immediate profit. There are other metrics it can try and
               | move.
        
               | stackskipton wrote:
               | Uber was a Business trying to gain a market share in
               | hopes to cement itself as competitor or even become
               | monopoly. It's also clear Uber was building massive ride
               | hailing network so when self-driving cars became a thing,
               | out with human drivers, in with computer drivers.
               | Obviously, that didn't happen.
               | 
               | Government does not really have that. All their
               | businesses have 100% market share so to run it
               | profitable, they would have to stop doing unprofitable
               | thing. Like providing healthcare to poor people or
               | delivering from Hawaii to some rural area.
        
               | marcosdumay wrote:
               | Nope. When people say governments should run like a
               | business, they always mean the most reckless version of
               | business you can think of.
               | 
               | It's even the only interpretation of that phrase that
               | makes sense, because if you take the optimizing into
               | large risks interpretation away, there's no other way
               | those two can act in similar ways.
        
             | thoughtFrame wrote:
             | Is it this one?
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSRHeXYDLko Preventing the
             | Collapse of Civilization / Jonathan Blow (Thekla, Inc)
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | > In fact the speed of innovation is, pretty much, equal to
             | the speed of maintenance.
             | 
             | Instead, the most important innovation are the ones that
             | reduce maintenance needs.
             | 
             | Automating farms, moving mechanical computation into
             | general purpose processors, simplifying science theories so
             | that people can learn in a semester stuff that took decades
             | to mature... All of those have a tremendous impact. All of
             | those speed everything up, and make room for more
             | innovation to appear.
        
             | lelanthran wrote:
             | > and there is no downloadable Jira competitor anymore.
             | 
             | How much are you or your enterprise willing to pay for
             | that?
             | 
             | See, the economics just don't make sense. Give me some VC
             | money, a small team of experts in the domain and some
             | runway and I'll give you a self-hosted alternative to Jira.
             | 
             | But the cost for you would be too high and I will go out of
             | business trying to sell software while everyone else is
             | renting it out.
        
           | mnahkies wrote:
           | My work laptop (Mac) needed an OS upgrade recently, top of
           | the release notes was "added 8 emojis" - what? Why is this an
           | OS level feature worth calling out
        
             | waiwai933 wrote:
             | I believe I read somewhere that announcing new emoji drives
             | noticeably more OS upgrades compared to more boring
             | security and stability update release notes.
        
             | throw0101c wrote:
             | > _My work laptop (Mac) needed an OS upgrade recently, top
             | of the release notes was "added 8 emojis" - what? Why is
             | this an OS level feature worth calling out_
             | 
             | Because the Software Update page under System Settings is
             | all that normies will ever read and so what's in the text
             | there is focused on normies.
             | 
             | Meanwhile techies may be interest in the CVEs listed in the
             | security update list:
             | 
             | * https://support.apple.com/en-ca/125111
             | 
             | * https://support.apple.com/en-ca/100100
             | 
             | * https://developer.apple.com/documentation/macos-release-
             | note...
             | 
             | And corporate IT types may be interest in enterprise
             | features, like TLS behavioural changes:
             | 
             | * https://support.apple.com/en-ca/121011
        
           | ashu1461 wrote:
           | Hasn't Tim Apple done his share by releasing apple watch and
           | airpods, which have been good successors to other ancillary
           | products which apple had earlier (ipad / ipod).
           | 
           | And right now as well, no laptop comes close to the overall
           | experience that the Mac provides so he has been able to
           | maintain market leadership.
           | 
           | Far better than Zuck for whom the only source of innovation
           | has been acquisitions rather than releasing original
           | products.
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | > apple watch and airpods
             | 
             | Fair point.
        
           | reaperducer wrote:
           | _There is no hint that Apple intends to do anything with the
           | Vision Pro_
           | 
           | Grab one when they go on sale, and keep it in the box for a
           | couple of decades.
           | 
           | Have you seen what Lisas go for at auction these days?
        
             | PaulHoule wrote:
             | Have you seen what they went for when they were new?
        
           | jen20 wrote:
           | > The only thing I can think of that Apple has done in the
           | Cook era that was actually new was the Apple Vision Pro.
           | 
           | AirPods and the Apple Watch are also major new product lines,
           | by some accounts each alone bigger than many major technology
           | firms, that were released in the Tim Cook era of Apple.
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | Fair point.
        
         | nonethewiser wrote:
         | This is eerily similar to the comment on the thread about LLMs
         | that says software teams have to maintain a "theory" or model
         | about how the software works and when they cant, they can no
         | longer function beyond limited forms of maintenance. And in
         | that comment the idea was that LLMs are accelerating this
         | dynamic.
         | 
         | I dont want to stretch the analogy too thin but in this case
         | instead of LLMs being a catalyst, perhaps its a monopoly.
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Has a degree that's
           | basically informatics management.
           | 
           | My coworker took a class with case studies and the theory
           | presented by that class was that all successful projects have
           | at least one person who has fit the entire system into their
           | head. They can tell you what happens if you pull on this
           | thread. What the consequences are of trying to remove this
           | feature. Lose them and you are fucked. Until or unless
           | someone else steps up and does the same. If they can't it's
           | the beginning of the end.
        
             | procaryote wrote:
             | For software, the easiest way to design for this is to keep
             | systems small enough that fitting it in your head is
             | relatively feasible in a reasonable time for a competent
             | engineer.
             | 
             | Connect them with clear APIs that don't have to change all
             | that often, and you can build pretty big things.
             | 
             | I imagine this is doable with hardware too
        
               | unreal6 wrote:
               | > Connect them with clear APIs that don't have to change
               | all that often, and you can build pretty big things.
               | 
               | Emphasis on _clear_. It 's a challenging endeavor to
               | properly draw and enforce these service boundaries.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | Occasionally I make an analogy to stage acting or opera.
               | In order for the people in the medium priced seats to see
               | the action on the stage, all the actors have to over-
               | emote to make everything that is happening dreadfully
               | obvious.
               | 
               | In a system that is the composition of 30-300 different
               | functional units, nobody will be close to any one part
               | unless they're the bus number for it. So each piece needs
               | to be dead obvious so you can worry about the
               | consequences of composing them. At the end of the day
               | it's Kernighan's Law but rephrased so as not to ignore
               | Conway or Brooks.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | My yard stick is discoverability. If you don't touch
               | things for a while they get fuzzy, and someone might have
               | refactored it. So you need to be able to familiarize
               | yourself with bits of the code you haven't looked at
               | recently. Helps with code reviews, onboarding, and
               | production outages.
               | 
               | In particular it's difficult to train new people to take
               | up on-call duties if they cannot sit in the corner of the
               | room and try either the same things you're trying or
               | their own pet theories without taking your attention or
               | interfering with your tests. They need to be able to hear
               | the repro steps and spool up their own snapshot in a
               | similar state. That scales. Gatekeepers do not.
               | Discoverability is necessary but insufficient to achieve
               | this. There's more to it but the foundation is
               | discoverability and reproduceability.
        
             | cptroot wrote:
             | That sounds like a very interesting theory, with an
             | actionable result. Do you have any links for more reading?
        
             | magicalhippo wrote:
             | I've been on large projects where we didn't have one such
             | person but was nevertheless very successful.
             | 
             | The key there was that one qualified representative for
             | each part of the affected organization and other relevant
             | parties in the core team, and there were frequent alignment
             | meetings where they were all present. The representatives
             | were close to the action, not some three-levels-removed
             | manager.
             | 
             | In the meetings processes and such would get discussed step
             | by step in detail, and any representative could chime in at
             | any point to say "this won't work" or similar.
             | 
             | Hard to do though, and quite costly in terms of
             | organizational resources required.
        
             | lelanthran wrote:
             | > Until or unless someone else steps up and does the same.
             | 
             | Or the company ponies up and rewrites the thing.
             | 
             | Sometimes legacy really _is_ bad, and sometimes you really
             | _do_ need to throw the old product into the bin.
             | 
             | See Trello for an example.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | I worked on the 787 but far from the engineering team.
         | 
         | Boeing vowed to never build a plane like that again. They gave
         | the wing design away to Mitsubishi for fucks sake. You never do
         | that.
         | 
         | They were neck deep in the McDonnell Douglas metastasis at the
         | time, and doing an impression of Captain Ahab in trying to
         | union bust in Seattle by fucking off to South Carolina. Boeing
         | customers would figure out which plane numbers were produced in
         | SC and avoid purchasing them.
         | 
         | The thing about Boeing though is if you think the 737 team
         | learns anything from the 747 team you'd be mostly wrong. Each
         | airplane design builds up a new company inside Boeing to design
         | that plane. They have their own meetings with each other and
         | vendors. You'll get some staff migration between the projects
         | but if I saw any I didn't notice. Toward the end during ramp
         | down I'm sure some people moved onto the various -8 and -9
         | projects that were trying to stick composite wings onto
         | existing lines.
         | 
         | I was asked if I was interested in porting my software to the
         | C-17, after they figured out how to turn it into a bomber. I
         | said fuck no, and that was the last I heard about it. Not that
         | our code was particularly opaque. Some of the cleanest code
         | I've ever done (knowing it would be maintained by someone else
         | for as much as 30 years).
        
           | tracker1 wrote:
           | Assuming it was more of a philosophical aversion to working
           | on the C-17... it's interesting where different people may
           | draw different lines at differing points in their careers.
           | 
           | I worked on a contract project for an email marketing
           | management solution for a major CC/Bank... I hated it, it
           | made me feel icky and after my 6mo term was up, I was
           | completely out. I also once outright rejected an in-company
           | project for the RIAA (and another for MPAA) workplace as I
           | just couldn't support them. I'm a little more flexible in
           | terms of military applications, depending on what they are.
           | I've worked on systems training for military aircraft (not
           | the weapons systems themselves), and wouldn't necessarily be
           | averse to it again.
           | 
           | In the end it just depends... I think everyone should have at
           | least some moral line they won't cross, even if that line,
           | subject or level may vary. Not that I support every action in
           | terms of "resisting" a given thing when it comes to counter-
           | action.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | If I'm remembering the timeline correctly, we already knew
             | how shitty we were being in Afghanistan by the point the
             | question was asked.
        
           | masklinn wrote:
           | > They gave the wing design away to Mitsubishi for fucks
           | sake. You never do that. They were neck deep in the McDonnell
           | Douglas metastasis at the time
           | 
           | The 787 was a straight up MDD pants-on-head plan (pushed by
           | Stonecipher and McDonnel themselves), the entire point was to
           | shift the costs of design and development to suppliers, with
           | the idea that they'd fund the aircraft you could sell.
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | The modular structure of the aircraft was also meant to
             | reduce or remove the need for gantry cranes. It required 2-
             | or maybe it was 3-axis forklifts but no gantries. Gantries
             | need tracks and structural support and those make the
             | building the planes are built in quite expensive. I joked
             | at the time that they could buy an old Walmart Superstore
             | and use it to assemble the 787. Though I'm relatively sure
             | they'd crack the concrete.
             | 
             | I have no recollection of whether they stuck with that
             | plan, but I recall the diagrams in the pitch deck.
        
             | dingaling wrote:
             | Nothing really exceptional about that, risk-sharing
             | projects were common in aerospace in the 80s onwards. 21%
             | of the 777 ( yes the beloved Triple Seven ) was farmed out
             | to a Japanese consortium which took risk for the design and
             | production of the fuselage.
        
         | tracker1 wrote:
         | Boeing in particular has been about "maximizing shareholder
         | value" to detrimental levels for decades now. Absolutely
         | pushing out its most experienced (and expensive) employees in
         | favor of less skilled and experienced staff often with an
         | ageist bent. Beyond this has been a cultural shift and ever
         | expanding increase to woke HR policies and practices to levels
         | that are more harmful than good.
         | 
         | I should note that I'm entirely in favor of diversity of
         | background and thought, not to mention various educational
         | backgrounds. That said, actually having "unofficial" policies
         | against promoting people of a certain race and gender
         | combination (no white men hired or advancing in management,
         | especially old white men) is as problematic as any other
         | racial/gender/ageist bigotry.
         | 
         | I don't work for Boeing as I don't have a formal education that
         | prevents me from ever being considered. I do know several
         | people that do. Opinions are my own and not that of my employer
         | or anyone else.
        
         | phkahler wrote:
         | >> There's a phenomena that ofter occurs with large
         | organizations where once their markets mature, everybody who
         | can build a product end-to-end leaves or gets forced out,
         | leaving only people with highly specialized maintenance
         | skillsets.
         | 
         | A coworker from China once told me (and I can see it)
         | everything in China is considered ephemeral. Companies in the
         | US want to invest capital to generate ROI and recurring revenue
         | (or monetize/enshittify everything) or one could say be lazy.
         | Even big manufacturers want to invest in a plant and then enjoy
         | the profits from ongoing production (Boeing doesn't even want
         | to do production). This is why China has been booming,
         | everything is temporary so everyone scrambles and is willing to
         | take on smaller more short term production because nothing is
         | forever. Well, that and they have the capacity since we gave it
         | up.
        
           | imoverclocked wrote:
           | > A coworker from China once told me (and I can see it)
           | everything in China is considered ephemeral
           | 
           | (n of 1 observation)
           | 
           | Yeah, I just purchased an OrangePI ultra and that fact gushes
           | through like a flood in a canyon. I wonder if I will ever
           | have a u-boot for the board that isn't based on 10
           | repositories glued together with references to unchangeable
           | branches which are patterned after dates like 2017. There are
           | official images with binaries and dog-knows-what-else in
           | them. It's like the computer wasn't meant to operate for more
           | than a few years (at most.) AFAICT, a person working on so
           | many parts of the OrangePI ultra just stopped as the money
           | ran out and there is a mess of repositories left behind.
           | Don't get me started on the security mindset of the whole
           | situation. /rant
        
           | georgeburdell wrote:
           | I work with a lot of Chinese. I can confirm that they like to
           | work in 1st gear a lot, rebuilding the same stuff over and
           | over in reaction to changing requirements. Because of their
           | immense capacity for work, it more than compensates for what
           | westerners might desire in long term planning. I have gained
           | quite a bit of respect for this way of work due to the
           | results they have gotten.
        
           | TheLegace wrote:
           | Not to mention their customer service is amazing. I travelled
           | several times, been to Shenzen, but mostly travelled to
           | Shanghai for training and procurement of large manufacturing
           | machines. To be honest I am a software person and was never
           | really trained or taught fixing and maintaining
           | moulds/machines.
           | 
           | But they have always been gracious and insanely dedicated to
           | making sure my problems are solved and they show me how to
           | rebuild everything. I have a dedicated WeChat group with
           | their engineers and get back to me 7 days a week.
           | 
           | Compare that with a Candian machine, where I can rarely get a
           | hold of a technican and they lack any deep expertise on
           | anything even just to have a informal conversation on how to
           | improve things at my plant.
        
         | imoverclocked wrote:
         | The biggest tell will be just how over budget the development
         | process becomes. Another issue in large companies trying to
         | build something new is the scope creep which leads to
         | committees and then decision by committee.
         | 
         | If the folks leading this effort in Boeing are smart, they will
         | keep the size of the team as small as possible. Maybe they will
         | even hire some people back to lead this effort... assuming they
         | can find them.
         | 
         | My bet is that they will produce something not unlike what they
         | already have in their lineup. It won't be boldly different in
         | any way as technology that has worked elsewhere will just be
         | cargo-culted forward into the "new" design. The biggest thing
         | that will change are the handling characteristics since they
         | won't have to match that of a previous aircraft.
         | 
         | Given that outcome, I (from the peanuts gallery) would design
         | the aircraft to handle in some ideal way using MCAS-like
         | automation to fix any deviation from that ideal, from the
         | beginning. Of course, that's starting to head down the road of
         | a more-Airbus-like design.
         | 
         | Also, passengers are probably going to start waking up to the
         | realities of just how bad the air-travel experience in the US
         | has become compared to so many foreign counterparts. If you
         | want passengers to _want_ your plane, design it without
         | sardines in mind; People don 't like being sardines.
        
           | intrasight wrote:
           | They will use a very small team and will mostly let AI design
           | the plane ;)
        
             | reactordev wrote:
             | Can't wait to fly in the 737-AI.
        
               | dsr_ wrote:
               | All the executives first, please.
        
             | baby_souffle wrote:
             | Doors can't fall off if they were hallucinated to begin
             | with!
        
           | jeffhwang wrote:
           | > Also, passengers are probably going to start waking up to
           | the realities of just how bad the air-travel experience in
           | the US has become compared to so many foreign counterparts.
           | If you want passengers to want your plane, design it without
           | sardines in mind; People don't like being sardines.
           | 
           | I hope this is true. However, my sense is that the value
           | chain is so elongated from aircraft
           | designer/engineer/marketing/sales to the end customer (retail
           | airline passengers) that those important signals are lost.
           | Not to mention the financial incentives on the part of US
           | domestic airlines to keep making the flight experience worse
           | for end customers.
        
             | clickety_clack wrote:
             | Maybe you want a small team of big people.
        
             | Night_Thastus wrote:
             | With rare exception, people just buy the cheapest ticket.
             | They moan and complain about this or that, but they still
             | do the same thing.
             | 
             | So, airlines structure and furnish accordingly.
        
               | sgjohnson wrote:
               | > So, airlines structure and furnish accordingly.
               | 
               | By cutting the number of economy seats and increasing the
               | number of business and first class ones?
               | 
               | Airlines don't care about the economy traveller. They are
               | there just to fill the space for a marginal profit.
        
               | Night_Thastus wrote:
               | They need _both_. They want the high-margin business and
               | first-class passengers, but with those alone the volume
               | would be too low and overall prices too high to make
               | operating feasible.
               | 
               | The high-volume low-margin economy customers keep seats
               | filled to prevent wasted potential space. On most
               | commercial planes, flight is only profitable if nearly
               | every seat is filled.
        
               | sgjohnson wrote:
               | > They need both.
               | 
               | No. If they could fill the entire plane with
               | business/first class seats and sell out >70% (maybe even
               | less) of it, you bet they would.
               | 
               | The only reason why economy class exists is because they
               | can't. But the demand for more premium travel is steadily
               | increasing, which will lead to shrinking economy cabins.
               | 
               | So yes, they do need to fill the space. But I wouldn't
               | say that they need the economy passengers.
        
               | purple_turtle wrote:
               | > > They need both.
               | 
               | > No (...) The only reason why economy class exists is
               | because they can't.
               | 
               | in other words, in nearly all cases they need both
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | > With rare exception, people just buy the cheapest
               | ticket
               | 
               | With rare exception people just buy what they can afford.
               | If people had so much money that they could afford to fly
               | first class and it wouldn't impact their budget very few
               | would get the lowest price they can find knowing that
               | their experience in the air will be miserable.
        
           | bunderbunder wrote:
           | I think you might have the chain of causality mixed up. From
           | what I've seen, the sheer scale of the company creates large
           | committees because you've got lots of managers and they all
           | know that getting involved in the project is essential to
           | their career advancement. And then that creates scope creep.
           | Partially due to design by committee effects, but also
           | because the manager in charge of flobnix realizes their
           | opportunity for career advancement by shoehorning problems
           | that need to be solved with flobnix into the requirements.
           | 
           | I also suspect that, if the folks leading this effort at
           | Boeing are smart, they will sit back and let it happen. Large
           | bureaucratic organizations like Boeing are ruled by office
           | politics and largely run by people whose individual
           | priorities are not particularly well-aligned with large scale
           | company priorities. Pushing back risks making enemies (a
           | dangerous thing to have in such an environment) and tends to
           | have no real immediate upside.
           | 
           | Concrete example: why is the Lunar Gateway such an essential
           | part of the Artemis project's mission architecture when we
           | didn't need anything like that for Apollo? Many reasons have
           | been given, but I suspect the real one is that 2020s NASA has
           | a lot of people who specialize in space stations on staff and
           | 1960s NASA didn't.
        
             | mrguyorama wrote:
             | >why is the Lunar Gateway such an essential part of the
             | Artemis project's mission architecture when we didn't need
             | anything like that for Apollo?
             | 
             | The explicit reason is: Why would we pay another $200
             | billion to just do Apollo again? People were bored of
             | Apollo before it even finished its original set of
             | missions.
        
               | kevin_thibedeau wrote:
               | Gateway is also a trial run for conducting operations at
               | a Mars/Phobos/Diemos station.
        
               | bunderbunder wrote:
               | But then you've got to ask why would we want an orbital
               | Mars/Phobos/Deimos station?
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | Because Elon.
               | 
               | Snark aside: the goal is Mars because it might be
               | possible to colonize the planet and to have a place that
               | acts as a reserve for humanity should shit really hit the
               | fan (i.e. WW3).
               | 
               | The moon isn't suitable as much for that purpose due to a
               | complete lack of any atmosphere and because it's too
               | close to Earth.
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | That's not Elon's plan. He's too smart for that shit and
               | wants to aerobrake down to the surface where there is
               | abundant CO2 and probably H2O somewhere to make fuel for
               | the return trip.
        
               | bunderbunder wrote:
               | That's surface habitation, not an orbital station around
               | the planet or one of its moons.
               | 
               | The problem with using a space station as a waypoint on
               | the way to and from the surface of a remote body is that
               | it make the mission more expensive. For example, the
               | Lunar Gateway increases the delta-v requirement by 15-20%
               | (can't remember exact number) compared to a more direct
               | mission. Which then, all else being equal, increases the
               | total mission cost by much more than 15-20% because the
               | rocket equation always wins. And that's just the actual
               | visit, we're not even considering the cost of putting the
               | station there in the first place.
               | 
               | So I keep going back to, _why a space station_? If we 're
               | going to spend all that extra money on turning hydrogen
               | and oxygen into hot water, why put it toward a space
               | station out in the middle of nowhere instead of, say,
               | more time or more equipment on the surface of the body?
               | 
               | Also, IIRC, none of Elon's proposed mission architectures
               | for going to Mars involve an orbital station. And, while
               | SpaceX did get the Artemis lander contract, they weren't
               | involved in the decision to have a Lunar Gateway.
        
               | ipython wrote:
               | Mars isn't exactly habitable either. Not to mention the
               | myriad of issues we face even getting there, let alone
               | thriving.
               | 
               | Read the book A City On Mars recently which had a lot of
               | interesting concerns not widely discussed in the pro
               | space colonization community :
               | https://www.acityonmars.com/. Highly recommended.
        
               | actionfromafar wrote:
               | If any faction is on Mars during WW3, there's a nuke
               | landing there 6 months after the show is over here.
        
               | wongarsu wrote:
               | We'd pay $xxx billion to have a permanent moon base,
               | something Apollo never had. If that can't efforts excite
               | people enough to keep funding flowing I doubt a space
               | station in lunar orbit will move the needle
               | 
               | To add another data point: the Chinese lunar program also
               | plans to land humans on the moon and later establish a
               | manned research outpost on the surface. But there don't
               | seem to be any plans for an orbital stations, despite
               | China having very successful space stations in LEO
        
               | ipython wrote:
               | What does a moon base get us, though?
               | 
               | It was cool to get bragging rights by being the first to
               | land and come back - in the ultimate show of "soft power"
               | against the Soviet Union. But a permanent moon base? We
               | can't even fund the ISS.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | Frankly, a moon base might be cool, but nobody has sold
               | me on it is worth having for any other reason. Some smart
               | people have given good arguments that it isn't worth
               | having.
               | 
               | And here I'm sitting in my basement not working on space
               | projects and realizing money spent on space is money I
               | don't have for something else I want (even it is is only
               | $.10 that is still money that adds up).
        
               | PaulHoule wrote:
               | In the 1980s I read articles in the "science fact"
               | columns in _Analog Science Fiction Magazine_ that told me
               | that NASA sold out a much more ambitious lunar program
               | for something that was little more than a stunt.
               | 
               | The reality was that Von Braun looked at dozens of
               | mission architectures before discovering one that was
               | much more feasible than any of the others and made it
               | possible to realize Kennedy's dream.
               | 
               | The moon is not far away in terms of miles but in terms
               | of energy and momentum it is very far away if your goal
               | is to fly there and fly back. Right now the best idea we
               | have for a moon lander is to hope that SpaceX gets
               | Starship to orbit _and_ masters orbital refueling it's
               | not like they can fly 100 tons there and back, but rather
               | they can land about what Apollo did with a much bigger
               | spacecraft that's really tall and tippy, needs an
               | elevator, can get the ascent rockets smashed on rocks,
               | etc. if they had a set of those chopsticks on the Moon or
               | Mars they could land it easily but on generic inner solar
               | system bodies covered with boulders, craters and stuff
               | good luck. Plan B is basically the same from Blue Origin.
               | 
               | If you could refuel there the math changes, maybe you
               | can, there might be usable ice at the poles but nobody
               | has seen it, unless we have a Drexler machine we're going
               | to have to launch a huge number of missions with a
               | marginally effective system until we have a system in
               | place that can reliably deliver fuel.
               | 
               | So it's tough, any honest analysis of space colonization
               | makes you come to the conclusion that Drexler did,
               | rocketry has very little to do with it, being able to
               | pack a self-sufficient industrial civilization into the
               | smallest package has everything to do with it.
        
           | baud147258 wrote:
           | > If you want passengers to want your plane, design it
           | without sardines in mind; People don't like being sardines.
           | 
           | Isn't that something that's more the responsibility of the
           | airlines, who decide how many seats are put in a plane,
           | following the limits of the aircraft? Like if you want more
           | legroom you take a more expensive ticket from a company that
           | doesn't try to cram as many passengers in each plane
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | Pretty much. You can outfit pretty much any airframe you
             | want to be business class only seating but not enough
             | people will buy when it pops up on Expedia at 2+ times the
             | price of the alternative.
             | 
             | I don't love Economy on long flights either but I'm mostly
             | not willing to pay thousands of dollars out of pocket for a
             | more comfortable alternative for 8 hours or so.
        
               | Filligree wrote:
               | I would buy an upgrade if it was twice the price. In
               | reality it's more like 10x.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | That is, in no small part, because business/first class
               | is being subsidized by economy (and a lot of the
               | passengers in those classes are status upgrades).
               | 
               | So, yes, sticker price for upper class service is pretty
               | expensive. In a world where upper class service was the
               | norm on certain routes on certain planes it would
               | probably be pretty expensive but probably cheaper than
               | the upgrade on mixed class service.
        
               | Thorrez wrote:
               | Do you have a source showing $/sqft of economy vs
               | business/first class? This video is basically saying the
               | opposite of you: that business/first class subsidizes
               | economy.
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzB5xtGGsTc
        
               | cyberax wrote:
               | > That is, in no small part, because business/first class
               | is being subsidized by economy (and a lot of the
               | passengers in those classes are status upgrades).
               | 
               | That's the complete 100% opposite of truth. For most
               | airlines, the economy class is just a nice addition to
               | the business class.
        
               | jjmarr wrote:
               | There is a business-class only airline (La Compagnie)
               | that flies from Newark to Europe and they're profitable.
               | A little more expensive than 2x the price though, but
               | less than 10x.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Compagnie
        
               | nebula8804 wrote:
               | Never heard of this airline so I just checked: Over the
               | next few months the cheapest flight from EWR to their
               | base in Orly is ~$2,500 vs ~$365 for Economy (French Bee
               | to be exact). That seems like its still a separate class
               | and would exclude most Economy flyers.
        
             | glitchc wrote:
             | Yup, as another poster noted, the seating density and
             | comfort are decided by airlines. Aircraft manufacturers
             | install standardized rails for seating and console
             | selection, and allow for many different configurations.
        
             | addaon wrote:
             | > Isn't that something that's more the responsibility of
             | the airlines, who decide how many seats are put in a plane,
             | following the limits of the aircraft?
             | 
             | For pitch, yes. For width, no --- you run into quantization
             | pretty quickly. The difference between sardines and
             | standard economy is less than the difference between 3+3
             | and 3+2 -- it's not really feasible for most traditional
             | airlines to choose a different number of seats across than
             | the design point. And for a 3+3 setup, adding 6" to
             | fuselage diameter makes a noticeable difference to (wider)
             | passengers, which the airlines can't really take away.
        
               | Denvercoder9 wrote:
               | There's no incentive. Passengers rarely know what type
               | they'll be flying on when they book, and prioritize it
               | over price even less. For airlines, a bigger airplane is
               | a distinct disadvantage though, as it's operationally
               | more expensive (increased cross section equals increased
               | drag equals increased fuel burn).
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | A fully loaded 747 is extremely profitable, the large
               | size has economies of scale. That's why the 747 was very
               | very popular with the airlines.
               | 
               | So, yes, a 747 burns more fuel. But the fuel burn per
               | paying passenger is _less_.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | The real issue with the 747 is people will take a point
               | to point route if at all possible. Worse, flying a small
               | plane point to point is cheaper for the passenger than
               | flying 2 747s. If you live in Lincoln NE - sorry your
               | city is too small to get direct flights to anything but
               | close major hubs (even then odds are you drive to nearby
               | Omaha thus further reducing demand options). However if
               | you live in a Larger non-hub city airlines can undercut
               | each other by just doing direct flights to other large
               | non-hub cities.
        
               | buildsjets wrote:
               | Seat and aisle widths are customer selectable options.
               | Hence, a customer may order a 787 with 3-3-3 seating or
               | 2-4-2 seating. The vast majority of airlines chose
               | sardines instead of comfort. In a 737, customers only can
               | get 3-3 seating, but they can choose wide (17.8") seats
               | and skinny aisles, like Southwest does, or they can
               | choose skinny (17.1") seats and wider aisles, like Alaska
               | does.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Boeing is in constant communication with the airlines on
               | new airplane designs, as they want to build the most
               | profitable airplane for their customers that they can.
               | This means the airline has a lot of input on fuselage
               | diameter.
        
           | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
           | > Given that outcome, I (from the peanuts gallery) would
           | design the aircraft to handle in some ideal way using MCAS-
           | like automation to fix any deviation from that ideal, from
           | the beginning. Of course, that's starting to head down the
           | road of a more-Airbus-like design.
           | 
           | The 787 and 777 are already purely fly by wire. Their entire
           | feel is made up.
           | 
           | Boeing simply has a different design philosophy on how much a
           | pilot should feel like they are in command vs steering a
           | system.
        
             | wucke13 wrote:
             | I think what parent was about is open vs. closed loop
             | control, not fly-by-wire or not. Both their and your point
             | stand of course.
        
           | Night_Thastus wrote:
           | >If you want passengers to want your plane, design it without
           | sardines in mind; People don't like being sardines.
           | 
           | The manufacturers don't actually have a ton of say over this.
           | At the end of the day, it's the airlines who decide how many
           | seats in what configuration the aircraft will use - not the
           | manufacturer of the plane.
           | 
           | And airlines only pack so tightly because competition is
           | fierce and flyers almost exclusively only purchase based on
           | price.
        
             | extraduder_ire wrote:
             | The number of passengers you can fit in a commercial plane
             | is based on how quickly you can evacuate them, with the
             | doors being a major bottleneck. Many ULCCs in Europe have
             | planes that are right up against that limit.
        
           | jandrese wrote:
           | I think the days of Boeing being able to make the plane with
           | a small focused team is probably in the past. Way too much
           | engineering talent has been outsourced and the R&D just isn't
           | there. It requires a level of vertical integration that was
           | long since divested for cost saving reasons. That's why it is
           | so beathtakingly expensive to develop a new plane.
           | coordination between literally thousands of contractors is a
           | nightmarishly complex task that requires an enormous team of
           | middle managers and lawyers. It may even be the case that
           | modern planes are just plain too complex to realistically do
           | the majority of the work in-house.
        
           | dreamcompiler wrote:
           | > The biggest thing that will change are the handling
           | characteristics since they won't have to match that of a
           | previous aircraft.
           | 
           | I'd expect the handling characteristics to be pretty similar
           | to the 737. The biggest change will be to raise the whole
           | aircraft a few more feet off the ground (i.e. taller landing
           | gear), which will let the plane use large-diameter high-
           | bypass turbofans.
           | 
           | The short landing gear on the 737 was the root of the chain
           | that led to the whole MCAS fiasco.
        
           | PaulHoule wrote:
           | 1. Modern airliners with fly by wire have capability similar
           | to MCAS the difference is it is not half baked but has
           | numerous degraded states it can run in when sensors are out
           | and pilots are trained on all that. Any new airplane will
           | have that under the name "flight envelope protection"
           | 
           | 2. The circular cross section is anti-human and is the reason
           | my neck knots up when I think of getting in any plane of that
           | class. Embraer E-Jets and the A220 are smaller but feel like
           | riding in a wide body because the cross section is squared
           | off, you have to fly it to believe it.
           | 
           | 3. Airbus has a A320 replacement, they bought it from
           | Bombardier. It's a little told story that aviation in the US
           | is hamstrung by union scope clauses that forbid the 70 seat
           | airplanes that would improve service at small airports,
           | relieve congestion at large airports, and lessen some of the
           | painful trends in regional geography that have made politics
           | so toxic. (a) Planes like the A220 could be part of that
           | solution.
           | 
           | 4. What I don't get is the involution (excessive competition)
           | over wide body airliners coupled with poor competition in the
           | much larger narrow body market, especially when narrowbodies
           | have been increasingly doing wide body jobs
           | 
           | (a) when organizations in my town do a SWOT analysis they
           | almost always put the bad state of the local airport as a
           | disadvantage they have relative to competitors --- the county
           | and state would spend money to improve what they can but it
           | comes down to out-of-town airlines that have their own
           | priorities, a pilot shortage, etc.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | > design it without sardines in mind
           | 
           | Boeing already does that. The seat size and spacing is
           | determined by the airline customer.
        
           | purple_turtle wrote:
           | > If you want passengers to want your plane, design it
           | without sardines in mind; People don't like being sardines.
           | 
           | In practice people in general vote with wallets for cheaper
           | sardine-like flights.
           | 
           | (though more spacious seats typically can be bought)
        
         | captainkrtek wrote:
         | This feels apt to my years at $large_cloud_provider, where the
         | current cohort of folks manage some of the largest web
         | services, but would not be able to develop them from the ground
         | up today. The brain drain from these orgs, the shift to
         | maintenance / KTLO, and the focus on sales/AI "features" rather
         | makes this feel spot on.
        
           | neilv wrote:
           | A couple years ago, when I was interested in working at a
           | huge cloud provider (and, in less-humble moments, imagine
           | myself as one of the people who could've helped build that up
           | from scratch)...
           | 
           | I was recruited directly by a manager(!), and to work on a
           | relatively small new piece that I thought my systems
           | programming skills would be up to... but then the big company
           | required me to do a corporate grunt screening in Python, as
           | well as memorize some behavioral corporate drone interview
           | answers.
           | 
           | I decided this would be a litmus test for whether the manager
           | would be able to insulate me well enough from megacorp drone
           | BS, and from some of the more aggressive org chart culture
           | that the company was said to have. Nope, it turns out, the
           | huge cloud provider really does insist that I do the
           | corporate drone screening first.
           | 
           | I could've passed the screen with a day of memory refreshing
           | prep on Python. (The last time I used it at that point, I had
           | been switching back and forth each day between it and Swift,
           | and had to look up details like how to get the length of a
           | string. Yet I built something in Python with perfect uptime,
           | over a year, in a critical production line, despite tricky
           | complicating factors. And other comparable track record.)
           | 
           | Though I think I could've passed the nonsense screening, I
           | decided that _I_ already had enough negative signal, to bow
           | out of the tempting cloud provider job. (I had a very
           | positive impression of the manager. I was only scared of
           | corporate culture outside of the team. If you 're going to be
           | a corporate drone, and jump through nonsense hoops, you
           | should do it at a company widely regarded as treating its
           | employees well.)
        
         | hitekker wrote:
         | Andy Grove, Steve Job's friend (if not mentor), agreed:
         | 
         | "Not only did we lose an untold number of jobs, we broke the
         | chain of experience that is so important in technological
         | evolution. ....abandoning today's 'commodity' manufacturing can
         | lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry."
         | https://www.zdnet.com/article/us-high-tech-manufacturing-bas...
         | 
         | No one listened to him, certainly not Intel.
        
         | ryandrake wrote:
         | Here's a link to the same video but without the awful music
         | inserted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4VBqTViEx4
        
         | tpurves wrote:
         | You forget, they also clean-sheet designed the starliner
         | starting in 2014 and that project... also happens to exactly
         | prove your point. (at least 2B over budget, and 8 years after
         | it's original operational target of 2017, has yet to fly a
         | fully successful mission)
        
         | gman83 wrote:
         | This dynamic is a core theme in Asimov's "Foundation." The
         | Empire's technological stagnation is defined by its inability
         | to create new atomic devices. They had the old ones, and they
         | had technicians to maintain them, but the actual knowledge of
         | how to design and construct one from the ground up had been
         | lost to institutional rot. They could patch the old world
         | together, but they couldn't build the new one.
        
           | alexey-salmin wrote:
           | Asimov was such a visionary he managed to predict the year
           | 2025 in France.
        
           | techas wrote:
           | Very true! Unfortunately that is not present at all in the
           | Apple series of Foundation...
        
         | FrustratedMonky wrote:
         | Microsoft seems to do ok re-inventing itself, maybe through
         | internal conflict and cage fights.
         | 
         | I wonder who the IBM/Xerox of today is? Amazon? Facebook?
        
         | jmyeet wrote:
         | One of the reasons the 787 was fraught with problems is because
         | it was peak decision-making by finance and accounting people.
         | Specifically, Boeing outsourced _everything_ for the 787s.
         | There were layers of subcontractors upon subcontractors to
         | produce the different parts because, you know, outsourcing was
         | "cheaper" or "more efficient". So of course the logistics
         | pipeline is hellishly complicated.
         | 
         | All because Boeing just didn't want to employ people directly
         | who can build up expertise.
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | > Before then was the 777 in the early 90s (pre-McDonnell
         | takeover), and the 757/767 in the early 80s
         | 
         | All of which are generally regarded as great aircraft by the
         | people who fly them.
        
         | plun9 wrote:
         | Just ask ChatGPT how to design an airplane, easy.
        
         | reaperducer wrote:
         | _The last all-new design was the 787, initiated in 2003 and
         | launched in 2009_
         | 
         | That seems very quick to design a whole jumbo jet. I know
         | they're not starting from scratch, but how long does something
         | like that typically take?
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _its design was fraught with problems_
         | 
         | The 787's problems were mostly in its supply chain and product-
         | market fit. The actual plane experienced fairly normal growing
         | pains for a clean-sheet design, and has been an exceptional
         | machine since then.
        
       | jacquesm wrote:
       | This will be Boeings answer to the Bombardier C Series, aka the
       | Airbus A220 series. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A220 ,
       | which is one of the nicest planes for short haul in service at
       | the moment.
       | 
       | Edit: indeed, not the 'Neo', I got the name wrong but the link
       | right.
        
         | sauercrowd wrote:
         | The A220 is an absolute treat. Can't put exactly my finger on
         | why, but it just feels right in size, noise, the little screens
         | at the top.
         | 
         | Flown it once or twice with AirBaltic, and would love to take
         | it again.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | AirBaltic was my introduction to the series as well and it
           | felt for the first time in 30 years or so that I was in a
           | modern aircraft. The last time before that was in a then
           | brand new 747, which I absolutely loved to fly.
        
             | bgnn wrote:
             | I had the exactly same experience with AirBaltic. It felt
             | so modern!
        
         | huslage wrote:
         | The "Neo series" are re-engined A320 series (neo = New Engine
         | Option) and has nothing to do with the A220.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | Ah yes, you are right, I meant the A220 though. I've edited
           | the comment, thank you for pointing out my error.
        
         | rkomorn wrote:
         | Replacing the 737 MAX with a competitor to the A220? Something
         | does not make sense.
         | 
         | The A220 series' maximum capacity is basically the 737 MAX
         | series' minimum capacity.
        
         | speed_spread wrote:
         | Boeing's only answer to the A220 was to get the US
         | administration to impose a 220% import tarif on it. It didn't
         | even compete with Boeing models. Fuck Boeing.
        
           | jeffbee wrote:
           | How does such a tariff even work? Can't an airline finance
           | all of its aircraft through an entity in the Maldives or
           | whatever?
        
             | peterhhchan wrote:
             | Airbus had to move production from Quebec to Georgia (US)
        
               | apendleton wrote:
               | It wasn't Airbus yet, so more like: Bombardier had to
               | sale a controlling stake to Airbus to gain access to its
               | Georgia production facilities.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Why, though? I am just wondering how it takes effect. The
               | carriers often lease the planes from special-purpose
               | entities. If such an entity is based in Liberia, where
               | does the tariff apply?
        
         | masklinn wrote:
         | The A220 is unrelated to the Neo. The Neos are re-engining of
         | the 320 and 330 series (neo stands for "new engine option"):
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320neo_family
         | 
         | And while a plane with good bones, the A220 has not been all
         | positives for Airbus: AFAIK they still loses money on the
         | thing, ramping up has been hell as it's not part of any of
         | Airbus's existing lines of procurement, and it's contributed to
         | the already awkward 319neo being DOA.
        
       | Esophagus4 wrote:
       | I hope they design and build the airframe properly this time. A
       | plane that needs [cheaply outsourced] software (that relies on
       | one sensor) to correct bad behavior at the flight envelope is
       | just not acceptable.
       | 
       | I still refuse to fly on the 737 MAX. I know it's probably fine
       | given what pilots now know about the how to control the thing,
       | but I just refuse to support Boeing's malicious negligence or any
       | carrier that enables it.
       | 
       | There are few companies on earth I'm as mad at as Boeing. As I
       | see it, they are not done repenting for their crimes.
        
         | quibono wrote:
         | It'd be a new airframe and not an elongation of an elongation
         | of an existing one... So we might be lucky this time.
        
         | silverquiet wrote:
         | I read "Airframe" by Michael Crichton probably twenty years
         | ago, and it was around ten years old at that time. I remember
         | that that book talked about how the planes were unstable by
         | design and required software to maintain proper flight
         | characteristics, and that this was so because it was more
         | efficient. The book is fiction, but I doubt it was far off the
         | mark at the time. I suspect that there is no going back from
         | this state of things, and so if there must be software, it
         | should be good software.
        
           | masklinn wrote:
           | War planes dropped natural stability a while ago, IIRC the
           | F16 was the first relaxed stability production aircraft (it's
           | naturally stable at supersonic speeds but not subsonic).
           | 
           | In fact there was a flying airliner with relaxed stability
           | (though only neutral not negative) when Airframe was
           | published: the MD-11. Though I don't know that there have
           | been others since.
        
           | Centigonal wrote:
           | Starting with the F-16, many fighter jets are designed to be
           | intentionally unstable to improve maneuverability.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relaxed_stability#Intentional_.
           | ..
        
           | kjs3 wrote:
           | _Fighter planes_ are unstable by design, and require computer
           | control to stay in the air, because they 're expected to do
           | some pretty insane things in the air. A _passenger plane_ has
           | a somewhat different performance envelope, and while they are
           | by-and-large fly-by-wire these days, they aren 't designed to
           | be aerodynamically very unstable.
        
           | mrguyorama wrote:
           | The 737-MAX is _not_ "unstable by design". It has the exact
           | same positive stability as other planes in 99% of it's flight
           | envelope.
           | 
           | The remaining exception is that, at a certain AoA, speed,
           | thrust, etc, there is a case where adding thrust pushes the
           | nose up _more than it does for the normal 737_
           | 
           | The nose push is not abnormal, it is not unsafe, it is not
           | unexpected. All planes with engines below the inertial
           | "center" of the plane have this, including every 737 and
           | every A320.
           | 
           | The problem was, this meant that it's flight characteristics
           | were "different" from the older 737s. The entire point of any
           | plane that is even a little bit 737 is to sell to airlines as
           | "This is still a 737 and you don't need to train anyone in
           | anything extra".
           | 
           | MCAS was built to change how the plane acts in this very
           | specific regime, to act more like older 737s and counteract
           | this nose push.
           | 
           | MCAS was entirely unnecessary except for business and policy
           | goals. MCAS killed people because properly training aircrews
           | for it would have gone against the entire point of the 737
           | MAX.
        
             | chris393434 wrote:
             | This is no different than modern traction control, and in
             | no way is "wrong" from a design perspective. If I recall,
             | the more fundamental flaw here is the degraded behavior of
             | MCAS with dual-sensor AoA system was not they adequately
             | trained pilots for, which was clearly part of the business
             | case for Boeing, negligent or not.
        
             | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
             | This is not correct and a gross simplification of the true
             | issue.
             | 
             | All aircraft with underslung engines have similar
             | characteristics to varying degrees and different handling
             | characteristics between models are fine.
             | 
             | As seen with 757/67, 777/787 and A330/40/50 sharing type
             | ratings despite being massively different aircraft.
             | 
             | > As the nacelle is ahead of the C of G, this lift causes a
             | slight pitch-up effect (ie a reducing stick force) which
             | could lead the pilot to inadvertently pull the yoke further
             | aft than intended bringing the aircraft closer towards the
             | stall. This abnormal nose-up pitching is not allowable
             | under 14CFR SS25.203(a) "Stall characteristics". Several
             | aerodynamic solutions were introduced such as revising the
             | leading edge stall strip and modifying the leading edge
             | vortilons but they were insufficient to pass regulation.
             | MCAS was therefore introduced to give an automatic nose
             | down stabilizer input during elevated AoA when flaps are
             | up.
             | 
             | http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm
             | 
             | The feeling of the aircraft is not the problem. The stall
             | characteristics not complying with the regulation is.
        
           | 6SixTy wrote:
           | When that book was published, the F-117 Nighthawk was already
           | retired after 10 years in service. The thing doesn't even
           | look like it could fly on account of the rudimentary stealth
           | features.
        
         | hinkley wrote:
         | The 737 is a clusterfuck because the giant engines throw off
         | the physics of the plane both inertially and aerodynamically.
         | 
         | It's easier to make a turbofan more efficient by making it
         | bigger. But power density also tends to go up with new models,
         | so there's at least a chance that there's a smaller, lighter
         | engine with the same thrust and fuel economy out there,
         | allowing them to improve (restore) the physics of the aircraft.
        
           | masklinn wrote:
           | While not great, the MAX would have been fine if Boeing (and
           | their airlines) had not clung so hard to the type rating.
           | Without that, MCAS could have been left out entirely
           | alongside its utterly botched implementation.
           | 
           | But that would have required a heavier certification process,
           | and some pilot re-training. And they couldn't have that.
           | 
           | Of course that wouldn't have freed Boeing from the rest of
           | its dismal record (MCAS didn't cause door blowouts), but...
        
             | hinkley wrote:
             | Indeed. A fully new airframe likely won't try to avoid
             | training and certification overhead. Ripping that bandaid
             | off will cut a lot of bullshit. But, there's only so much
             | engine you can shove under a narrow body aircraft. Landing
             | gear is limited by physics and just making it taller won't
             | fix everything.
             | 
             | I just looked and from what I can find on Wikipedia this
             | may warrant a new model from P&W or CFM because I'm not
             | seeing a documented turbofan family with similar thrust and
             | smaller diameter except ones with much lower bypass ratios
             | and thus garbage fuel efficiency.
             | 
             | RR seems to be concentrating on bigger engines. They have a
             | demonstrator that's 2x the diameter of the Max's engines.
             | JFC.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | >Landing gear is limited by physics and just making it
               | taller won't fix everything.
               | 
               | Every other plane is higher than the 737. The only reason
               | the engines needed to be pushed forward on the 737, is
               | that the 737 was built back in the day to be lower to the
               | ground for easier operations at poorer airports, with
               | things like stairs and baggage.
               | 
               | The 737 doesn't need to be as short as it is anymore
               | because the vast majority of them now fly to airports
               | with jetbridges and modern bag handling equipment.
               | 
               | The A320 is not as short as the 737 despite serving the
               | same market, and can handle bigger engines.
               | 
               | But the entire problem stems from wanting to abuse the
               | 737 type rating even further. If they were fine with a
               | new type rating, they could put the engines pretty much
               | wherever they want, put nice tall landing gear, etc.
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | That isn't really true. Air stairs are still very common
               | in much of Europe and Asia. It's only places like the US
               | and the Middle East that jet bridges are ubiquitous.
        
               | spogbiper wrote:
               | also common in south america in my experience
        
             | linuxftw wrote:
             | This is at best a Boeing talking-point. We don't have any
             | data that states it is safe to operate the MAX without
             | MCAS. It's quite possible that probable scenarios would
             | result in stall faster than a human can react.
        
               | masklinn wrote:
               | Afaik all analysis of the max's design have come to the
               | conclusion that its natural behaviour was nothing special
               | or dangerous. It's just that in some edge cases the nose
               | would lift faster than on an NG, and that was not
               | acceptable if it was sold as a 737 with no retraining.
        
               | linuxftw wrote:
               | One would think this question would have been answered
               | directly in the FAA report, but it got zero mentions. We
               | got zero data on how often MCAS made adjustments and how
               | often in the report.
               | 
               | Basically, we only have Boeing's word for it, which is
               | worthless. They self-certified everything, and we see how
               | that went.
        
         | raverbashing wrote:
         | The only instability most comercial planes have is the so
         | called Dutch roll caused by swept wings and is compensated by
         | the yaw damper (no sw needed)
        
         | bapak wrote:
         | > I just refuse to support Boeing's malicious negligence
         | 
         | I get, but if everyone does that, Boeing does and we're left
         | with a monopoly. Is that better? Will you feel safer flying on
         | a COMAC?
        
           | someperson wrote:
           | Did you mean Airbus?
        
             | rkomorn wrote:
             | Or dies instead of does ?
        
       | dang wrote:
       | [stub for offtopicness]
        
         | bookofjoe wrote:
         | https://archive.ph/Cqgtc
        
           | advisedwang wrote:
           | That link doesn't work. "Please enable JS and disable any ad
           | blocker"
        
           | ranger_danger wrote:
           | Endless captcha loops for me.
        
         | ranger_danger wrote:
         | 737 MAX Ultra Plus Alpha?
        
           | JohnMakin wrote:
           | 737 HBO
        
             | bookofjoe wrote:
             | Hulu in the on-deck circle
        
           | pavlov wrote:
           | Boeing [?]543169, technically not a new model.
        
         | recursivedoubts wrote:
         | Looking forward to what AI-generated flight control software
         | can do!
        
           | ionwake wrote:
           | I mean it couldnt be worse than what they released last time
           | could it?
           | 
           | EDIT> what is scarier? the quality of the software they
           | released or that someone on HN is defending it?
        
             | jimbo808 wrote:
             | I mean, they botched one piece of software in order to
             | retrofit an old plane with catastrophic results. God knows
             | what the Wall Street zombie version of Boeing will do with
             | a whole new plane, especially in the age of AI
             | enshittification.
        
               | lemonlearnings wrote:
               | Also the maga tariff and bizarre interventions age.
        
             | cjbgkagh wrote:
             | No situation is so bad that it cannot possibly be made
             | worse
        
           | Mistletoe wrote:
           | You're absolutely right! The engines do not appear to be
           | working. What I actually meant to do is, of course, turn the
           | engines on. As you can see, they should now be working
           | correctly. Sorry about that, thanks for correcting me!
        
             | quijoteuniv wrote:
             | We are about to crash, did you really turn them on? I still
             | have no control of the plane
        
               | thfuran wrote:
               | You're absolutely right! The engines do not appear to be
               | working. What I actually meant to do is, of course, turn
               | the engines on. As you can see, they should now be
               | working correctly. Sorry about that, thanks for
               | correcting me!
        
           | blackbear_ wrote:
           | Fly-by-vibe?
        
             | DontBreakAlex wrote:
             | VFR = Vibe Flight Rules
        
           | downrightmike wrote:
           | Hey hey hey, the $9/hr software engineer will be doing all
           | the work, unless they can find a $1/hr guy. The first guy
           | should just become a vendor and subcontract down to the $1/hr
           | guy, that's what the rest of Boeing's supply chain is doing
           | already.
           | 
           | https://www.industryweek.com/supply-
           | chain/article/22027840/b...
        
             | lemonlearnings wrote:
             | Ah the hitman business model
        
           | jordanb wrote:
           | During the MCAS scandal I saw a report that the software
           | developers who wrote it were offshored and being paid
           | something like $13/hr.
           | 
           | While there weren't actually coding flaws in MCAS in that it
           | did what the spec said, I've met people who work in avionics
           | and they would have pushed back against the specification
           | because they tend to think about how their component
           | integrates into the system.
           | 
           | Obviously it's impossible to prove that, had the software
           | been developed by people specializing in avionics they would
           | have caught the problem but it's just another hole in the
           | swiss cheese model: when you outsource your avionics software
           | development to an offshore contractor who was making a
           | webstore yesterday and will be making an iphone app tomorrow,
           | you eliminate the possibility that the implementers could do
           | an informed critique of the spec.
        
           | flykespice wrote:
           | Prompt: "Do a barrel roll!"
        
             | rjsw wrote:
             | The 367-80 did it fine [1].
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_367-80#Barrel_roll
        
         | vntok wrote:
         | The article just mentions "Boeing plane" with no details. Will
         | it fly?
        
           | IAmBroom wrote:
           | It said "Boeing", duh.
           | 
           | Like the sound it will make.
        
         | stray wrote:
         | You're absolutely right! Unfortunately, the MAX replacement
         | will have strict weekly limits on how many hours it can be
         | flown fully loaded - and most airlines will hit the weekly
         | limit after just a couple flights.
        
         | tracker1 wrote:
         | Boeing 737 MAX+         Boeing 737 MAX+ Xtreme         ...
         | Profit!
        
           | bombcar wrote:
           | Boing 737 Pro Max.
           | 
           | Still prefer the 737 Air
        
       | UtopiaPunk wrote:
       | China recently started building and delivering airplanes. It will
       | be interesting to see if Boeing can actually compete with what is
       | coming out of China over the next few years:
       | https://www.voanews.com/a/7528331.html
       | 
       | In the short-term, I imagine USA-based airlines will not be
       | allowed to buy any airplanes from China:
       | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-comac-military-...
       | And perhaps they would not even be allowed to fly in our
       | airspace. But if China decides that it wants to build planes at
       | lower prices than Boeing (or Airbus), then I imagine they will.
       | Their marketshare would grow elsewhere in the globe, reducing
       | Boeing's sales. Can Boeing deal with that? Would the USA borrow
       | China's playbook, and nationalize (or something similar) Boeing
       | to keep it solvent?
        
         | TylerE wrote:
         | The C919 isn't even competitive with where Boeing was 20 or 30
         | years ago.
        
           | UtopiaPunk wrote:
           | I'm admittedly very much not an expert in this area. But my
           | post is less about the C919 specifically, and more about
           | China's track record of developing manufacturing processes
           | very rapidly such that they compete on the world market.
           | Specifically I'm thinking of how China is suddenly exporting
           | tons of EVs throughout the world at prices that USA/EU auto-
           | makers can't really compete with. Over 50% of EVs sold in the
           | world are Chinese (and none of those cars are allowed in the
           | USA).
           | 
           | If China decides they want to continue developing and
           | building commercial airplanes, where will they be in 5-10
           | years? Where will Boeing be?
        
         | maxglute wrote:
         | COMAC can only compete (geopolical drama aside) if engine
         | efficiency improves or fuel prices decreases. TLDR every bit of
         | COMAC can be modern / tier1 (and most of it is), but at current
         | aviation fuel prices, 10-15% efficiency gap in engines will
         | save more money on fuel over airframe lifetime. C919 is
         | basically a 2025 narrow with a 2015 engine, but that old engine
         | alone makes it not economically viable in most markets AT
         | current aviation fuel prices. COMAC makes a lot of sense for
         | PRC economically, not giving a cent to boeing, can build out
         | COMAC specific support across country easily, but it's still
         | commercially not well priced.
         | 
         | The caveate being COMAC is only expensive / has limited room to
         | discount because it uses a lot of western components (for easy
         | regulation/certification only). If PRC moves to a full soveign
         | civil aviation stack, it would probably be very possible to
         | price COMAC competitively, but that's more a medium/long term
         | project. That's probably how it goes the way things are gonig,
         | US probably not going to even certify/liimt where PRC planes
         | can land to kneecap COMAC. PRC + RU can probably do some
         | shenanigans like prevent US planes from flying over their
         | airspace in retaliation and then it's a matter of how much
         | divertion (extra fuel+travel costs) impact bottom line. At the
         | end of the day geopolitics will determine how viable civil
         | aviation projects are.
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | Has there been any sign of change in their corporate culture?
       | 
       | Last I heard they're pushing hard to ramp up production and FAA
       | is back to letting them self-certify stuff. And they're under
       | worse financial pressure now than when they made the last round
       | of questionable decisions.
       | 
       | ...I'm all for competition & avoiding a monopoly but colour me
       | unconvinced that the root cause has been fixed.
        
       | bfrog wrote:
       | I wonder if they will try for a blended wing
        
       | wyldberry wrote:
       | This has been a long time coming. The big buyer for 737
       | consistently has been Southwest. Before a recent ownership
       | shakeup, Southwest wanted to only operate the 737 airframe, and
       | avoid as many new features as possible to keep training costs
       | low, and maintenance costs low.
       | 
       | New activist ownership has pushed to diversify frames and phase
       | out reliance on the 737 frame which is significantly more
       | inefficient than modern frames. Boeing doesn't want to make 737s,
       | but they are locked in because of this demand.
       | 
       | Source: Family member trains pilots at Southwest after retiring
       | from a major airline carrier after a career as pilot/check-
       | airman.
        
         | selectodude wrote:
         | People blame Boeing for the 737 MAX. They were elbows deep in a
         | clean sheet design. Yeah, they shouldn't have built the plane
         | but the demand was made by Southwest and American who both said
         | straight up if you don't make a new 737, we're switching to
         | Airbus.
        
       | t1234s wrote:
       | Might be easier for them to try and license and produce the A320
       | under their own name.
        
       | jeremyjh wrote:
       | I hope someone is working on a Boeing replacement.
        
       | guardiangod wrote:
       | Well since the 787 program will very likely never break even, let
       | alone turn in profit, for Boeing, the 737's replacement will be a
       | do or die project for Boeing. They cannot afford another money-
       | losing product.
        
         | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
         | The US will bail out Boeing, if necessary.
         | 
         | There are only two1 major manufacturers of commercial
         | airliners: one in the US and one in the EU. Both are
         | essentially state backed. Both blocs want to have their own
         | manufacturer, for strategic reasons, and they won't let it go
         | under.
         | 
         | 1. There will probably be three in a few years, since China is
         | building up Comac.
        
         | notatoad wrote:
         | boeing will never die as long as the government wants to have a
         | domestic passenger airline manufacturer. and they pretty
         | clearly do want that.
         | 
         | it'll take more than financial losses to kill boeing.
        
           | ffitch wrote:
           | seeing how much power shifted from legislative branch to
           | executive, and how often executive branch changes its mind, I
           | wouldn't count on the unwavering government support
        
       | Aldipower wrote:
       | How about to just "virtually" fly? So Boeing could save on
       | building an actual plane, but still getting the money!
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Is this the New Midsize Airplane, the "797", again? [1] That's
       | been on and off for over a decade. Should have been shipping by
       | now.
       | 
       | The COMAC C919 is finally shipping, although it's not a great
       | aircraft and China still imports the engines. COMAC will probably
       | do better in the next round.
       | 
       | Will Embraeier build something in that size range? They could.
       | They already build small midsize aircraft.[3]
       | 
       | This looks like Boeing missing the market.
       | 
       | And it's all because the Southwest CEO wanted to have only one
       | kind of airplane. That's the cause of the 737 MAX.
       | 
       | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_New_Midsize_Airplane
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919
       | 
       | [3] https://www.embraer.com/e-jets-e2/e195e2/en/
        
       | mjg59 wrote:
       | Boeing currently has an awkward gap between the 737 and the
       | widebodies that was previously filled by the 757 - the 737 Max 10
       | (which still isn't certified!) only has about two thirds of the
       | range of the A321XLR, and a slightly lower passenger capacity.
       | Airlines that currently have 757 fleets and who need that range
       | are going for Airbus instead, and Boeing just doesn't have an
       | answer for it. So while, yes, any new Boeing design is likely to
       | be fly by wire and composite and everything, it also seems likely
       | that it's going to try to fit that market.
       | 
       | The 737 Max 7, the smallest of the Max series, is _longer_ than
       | the 737-200, the stretched version of the original design. A
       | brand new design is going to be able to ignore that market (which
       | basically doesn 't exist any more, the Max 7 only has a handful
       | of orders) and scale upwards to also be a 757 replacement. But
       | it's also going to have basically no commonality with the 737, so
       | it's going to have to genuinely be better than the Airbus product
       | because existing Boeing customers aren't going to benefit from
       | being able to move existing pilots to it without retraining or
       | benefit from common maintenance plans and so on. It obviously
       | should be better - the A320 program started over 40 years ago,
       | it's not _that_ much newer than the 737 - but given Boeing 's
       | myriad series of failures in recent years and how painful the 787
       | program was, it's not impossible that they'll fuck this up
       | entirely.
        
       | eduction wrote:
       | The obvious move is to take cues from the 787 program in terms of
       | composites, to cut fuel burn. Adds some creature comforts like
       | larger windows as a side bonus.
       | 
       | https://youtu.be/lapFQl6RezA?si=Nef60vinA7hXbnta
        
       | chris393434 wrote:
       | Anyone with 737MAX cockpit time?
       | 
       | Overly nerdy question: I'm curious regarding AoA sensor failure,
       | is there an ability to manually source select the AoA, if not,
       | how about the FMC? This might be called master source select, or
       | which side is controlling (captain or first officer).
        
       | z3ratul163071 wrote:
       | well, for the safety critical sw, in addition to outsourcing to
       | the cheapest indian shop they can find, they can also now use the
       | cheapest ai models.
        
       | koziserek wrote:
       | Can't wait to beta-test it as a pax.
        
       | blueelephanttea wrote:
       | This is not a surprise. The timeline for this plane aligns
       | exactly with the timeline for Airbus's a320/321 replacement which
       | aligns exactly with when it is believed the next generation of
       | engines will be ready.
       | 
       | Both Boeing and Airbus are spending a lot of time evaluating the
       | next engine options. Last year there was an article that Airbus
       | is more optimistic about CFM's open rotor designs while Boeing
       | thinks the next generation geared turbofan models will win out.
       | That is entirely based on leaks and no-one actually knows how
       | true those assessments are.
       | 
       | The 737 Max was designed with the expectation that the 8 variant
       | would be the sweet spot. Since that time it is clear that there
       | is massive demand for up-gauging and the A321neo is dominating
       | and there is significant demand for the Max10 variant despite it
       | not being certified yet.
       | 
       | I would expect that both Boeing and Airbus are looking at that
       | size (maybe slightly larger) for their next narrowbody with some
       | flexibility for shrinks and/or stretches.
       | 
       | This is not a response to any existing planes. The A320/321
       | family is very old (50 years mid 2030) and it is expected that
       | both Boeing and Airbus are going to be introducing new airframes
       | to fit the new engine technology.
        
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