[HN Gopher] Role of Amazon fires in the record atmospheric CO2 g...
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       Role of Amazon fires in the record atmospheric CO2 growth in 2024
        
       Author : bikenaga
       Score  : 131 points
       Date   : 2025-09-27 15:02 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (essopenarchive.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (essopenarchive.org)
        
       | barbazoo wrote:
       | > The Amazon contributing 741 +- 61 teragram of carbon-its
       | highest level since 2000 and more than half of the global fire
       | emission anomaly. This surge, driven by exceptional heat and
       | drought, offset two decades of declining deforestation emissions.
       | 
       | That's rough, whatever gains we thought we made, puff gone. The
       | next sentence paints us a picture of what the future holds. Many
       | of us are going to be here for pretty drastic events I could
       | imagine.
        
         | tomComb wrote:
         | The climate change self reinforcing loop
        
       | gmuslera wrote:
       | In 2023 there was also massive fires in Canada covering a similar
       | area, 2021 Siberia, in 2019/2020 in Australia, 2015 in Indonesia
       | (peat fires, less area but similar emissions)... there is a long
       | list of extended fires with weighty emissions all in the last
       | decade that nullifies and add a big share to every trial of
       | forestation as natural carbon capture method. And things will get
       | worse as that is in part a positive feedback loop.
        
         | guidedlight wrote:
         | Australia has long had fires. Fires are an integral part of
         | Australia's historic natural environment.
         | 
         | So much so, that Eucalyptus trees evolved to become a fire
         | dependent species that benefits from regular burning. This is
         | why they are so dangerous when planted in places like Los
         | Angeles.
        
       | woliveirajr wrote:
       | "Tree trunks in the Amazon are getting 3.3% thicker every decade
       | as the plants absorb extra carbon dioxide, suggesting they are
       | more resilient to global warming than previously thought."
       | 
       | https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/amaz...
        
         | Nevermark wrote:
         | It should be no surprise that at the margin virtually every
         | plant gets a small boost from higher CO2.
         | 
         | Plants don't get the optimal amount of any component, because
         | they balance the components they take from the environment
         | against the energy costs of acquiring them and other
         | constraints.
         | 
         | If any component gets a little easier to aquire, the plant will
         | do a little better. If it's a long term change, the plant will
         | evolve a new balance that will improve it slightly more.
         | 
         | But rising CO2 (in addition to making animal life dumber*) is
         | contributing to a slow but radical rearrangement of local
         | conditions through the globe.
         | 
         | Temperature changes, precipitation levels, wind and storm
         | prevalence, sea encroachment and season lengths being the
         | biggest. And both have tremendous impact on plants.
         | 
         | The faster the change. The worse the damage. When changes
         | compound, they can happen very fast.
         | 
         | * CO2 levels have gone from 240ppm to 420ppm. At 1,000 ppm
         | there are clear measurable impacts on human cognition. Given
         | cognition is such a critical capability, it begs the question:
         | what is the actual curve of CO2ppm to cognitive effects. Same
         | goes for metabolic efficiency related to our need to expel CO2.
         | 
         | Because even small consistent subtle effects over time are
         | likely to have practical effects. And also because raising the
         | floor of CO2 outside, also raises the bar inside where CO2
         | notoriously collects, and decreases the rate that enclosed
         | spaces can renormalize levels when given a chance. Both of
         | which raise the indoor CO2 expected and ceiling values.
        
           | woliveirajr wrote:
           | Perfect. It should be no surprise but sometimes it is: some
           | people get really surprised when they discover that higher
           | temperatures, extra light and more CO2 make plants bigger. Or
           | when they find out that pre-historical times had less oxygen
           | and more CO2.
           | 
           | CO2 is so demonized that people forget that it's essential to
           | life (at least, to some forms of life).
        
             | Spooky23 wrote:
             | I don't think any credible person is saying CO2 is
             | dangerous to life.
             | 
             | The changes to the climate can disrupt things like ocean
             | currents to disastrous effect. Atmospheric gas won't kill
             | anyone, we'll kill each other over access to resources like
             | food and water.
        
             | wat10000 wrote:
             | CO2 isn't demonized. People focus on the harms because the
             | beneficial aspects are well known, not argued, and not
             | particularly relevant when making pretty much any real-
             | world decision.
        
             | TSiege wrote:
             | It's not that more CO2 is bad it's that the rate of change
             | is faster than any time in the geologic history of earth.
             | And every mass extinction including the dinosaurs involved
             | abrupt changes to CO2 levels. Every living thing is made
             | out of carbon that came from CO2. Every scientist studying
             | climate change knows this. But every organism on this
             | planet evolved for ice age like conditions and in the span
             | of 200 years we turned the earth's thermostat from Ice Age
             | to Hot House
        
           | xgkickt wrote:
           | Recent collective decisions around the world suggest an
           | impairment may occur at concentrations already exceeded.
        
         | Mistletoe wrote:
         | This hasn't seemed to help with
         | 
         | https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
         | 
         | Or if it is helping it's certainly not enough and the limits of
         | the biosphere to accept more CO2 are being exceeded.
        
       | ck2 wrote:
       | I find it hard to believe anything can top the non-stop burning
       | of natural gas the past two decades from the Bakken fracking
       | fields in North Dakota
       | 
       | Think about how much fuel they waste, tons of CO2 and heating the
       | atmosphere just to get to the oil
       | 
       | https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2013/01/16/169511949/a...
       | 
       | > _Today, 29 percent of the natural gas extracted in North Dakota
       | is just burned away. This wasted amount represents enough gas to
       | heat half a million homes_
        
         | thegrim33 wrote:
         | Combining the data in the article that was posted (741 +- 61
         | teragram of carbon annually) with a single Google search about
         | the Bakken fields (4 tons of carbon daily), yields a result
         | that this contribution from the Amazon is _507,534 times_
         | larger than the contribution from the Bakken fields.
        
           | qwerpy wrote:
           | I knew someone would inevitably try to find a way to refocus
           | the blame on America. Thanks for illustrating just how
           | ridiculously wrong it was in this instance.
        
           | TSiege wrote:
           | The misconception here is that the carbon in the Bakken is
           | locked up geologically and essentially removed the
           | biosphere's carbon cycle but the Amazon is not. Even if the
           | entire Amazon rainforest were to burn it wouldn't change
           | that. The problem with fossil fuels is that we are added
           | sequestered to our biosphere at rates it cannot adapt to.
           | 
           | So while absolute terms are less it isn't the same and we
           | should be worried about what OP is discussing
        
         | wat10000 wrote:
         | That last sentence should give you an immediate idea of the
         | scale, and that it's not going to be near the top. Half a
         | million homes is tiny when we're talking about the entire
         | globe. Thats like one medium-sized city, and just the heating,
         | not any other energy use. It would be nice to capture that
         | energy instead of wasting it, but there are far bigger fish to
         | fry.
        
       | htamas wrote:
       | The Amazon forest is unique in many ways but most importantly
       | because unlike other forests, it CANNOT grow back. The reason for
       | this is that it is a leftover from when the planet was covered in
       | rainforests because it was a lot warmer and wetter in the Eocene
       | epoch. The forest is sustained by the rain it creates from
       | itself. Once the trees are gone, the water will be gone. [1] We
       | also have reasons to think this self-sustaining climate is going
       | to collapse soon [2]
       | 
       | So far the best way to protect it I have found is through the
       | Rainforest Trust [3] which is a foundation that's trying to
       | purchase and protect parts of the rainforests that companies
       | would otherwise cut or burn down for agricultural use.
       | 
       | [1]https://youtu.be/hb3b-A6QAc8
       | 
       | [2]https://www.nasa.gov/earth-and-climate/human-activities-
       | are-...
       | 
       | [3]https://www.rainforesttrust.org
        
         | woah wrote:
         | > The reason for this is that it is a leftover from when the
         | planet was covered in rainforests because it was a lot warmer
         | and wetter in the Eocene epoch.
         | 
         | Won't it get much warmer and wetter once global warming hits,
         | allowing the rainforest to grow back?
        
           | XorNot wrote:
           | Global warming will not reforest the planet with a
           | substantially different biosphere to set the conditions for
           | the Amazon to regrow and then persist.
           | 
           | I mean I suppose it could but contingent on that would be
           | things like "thousands of years" and "likely substantial
           | extinction of human population centers".
        
           | TSiege wrote:
           | Not necessarily, (or even according to climate models I've
           | seen). The feedback the OP mentioned is because trees near
           | the coasts catch rain that they then respirate back up and
           | create an atmospheric river that moves inland and falls as
           | rain thus continuing the cycle inward. This cycle is
           | disrupted by deforestation and can stop during a state change
           | where it turns into Savannah. Savannah's are much drier and
           | don't cycle through water like the rain forest would. We'll
           | also see abrupt changes in global climate which will lead to
           | completely different global rainfall patterns than we know
           | today. For example the Sahara desert will likely turn into
           | grassland/forest (which has happened in the past). The
           | rainforest being a holdover from the Eocene is news to me,
           | but my understanding was that the climate of the Holocene
           | that we are leaving had weather patterns that facilitated a
           | positive feedback with the Amazon rainforest expansion. From
           | my understanding a thriving Amazon also necessarily depended
           | on a desert Sahara as they drive weather/nutrient patterns
           | that helps the Amazon
        
           | blueflow wrote:
           | Eocene temperatures: 6-15 kelvin above current. Would take
           | another century or two of coal-burning to reach.
        
             | TSiege wrote:
             | We are already at Eocene levels of CO2 it's just that our
             | climate hasn't caught up yet
        
           | ghm2199 wrote:
           | Without the trees, more rain may erode the soil, the Amazon
           | river might flood more easily causing more erosion.
        
         | HappyPanacea wrote:
         | How hard is it to plant it back?
        
           | TSiege wrote:
           | My understanding is very challenging for a few reasons. 1. A
           | forest is not just a bunch of trees. It's most healthy and
           | robust with mature trees and right animal life that supports
           | and propagates them 2. The short term economic incentives
           | towards rehabilitating the forest aren't there and are
           | actively counter productive for soy and beef farming 3. It
           | might already be past a tipping point as some parts of the
           | forest are dying out and setting on fire through natural
           | causes. The Amazon rainforest is NOT an ecosystem that is
           | used to burning and it cannot recover from it since it
           | destroys the ground cover and soils rainforest plants depend
           | on to grow. Plants that like wet conditions need wet
           | conditions to prosper, dusty charred clay ain't that
        
           | lokrian wrote:
           | A lot harder than just not burning it down in the first
           | place.
        
       | u8vov8 wrote:
       | Can't wait until the human infestation is snuffed out and this
       | beautiful planet can heal.
        
       | r2ob wrote:
       | the northern hemisphere burning coal for data centers, electric
       | cars... but, yes, the problem is definitely the deindustrialized
       | southern hemisphere
        
       | TSiege wrote:
       | Something to keep in mind in the comments when talking about
       | climate change and CO2 levels is that it's not the level so much
       | as the rate. We're on the path to doubling (or have doubled if
       | you look at CO2 equivalents) global CO2 levels faster than likely
       | any other time in earths entire history. We have the CO2 levels
       | equivalent to a time period when the earths poles didn't have ice
       | caps and instead forests in the span of about 200 years.
       | 
       | Every organism and ecosystem you've ever encountered in your life
       | is adapted to an Ice Age climate, but we've recreated the
       | conditions of a Hot House earth. Species and ecosystems adapt on
       | much slower time scales. They cannot adapt to changes this
       | abrupt, which means they will necessarily collapse if we do
       | nothing and allow emit CO2. Every other time in earths history
       | that the CO2 levels have rapidly risen it's lead to a mass
       | extinction. Yes it's been hotter before but that change happened
       | gradually. It's like the joke about poison vs medicine, it's the
       | dose that kills you.
        
         | hammock wrote:
         | What is the temporal resolution of the ice cores or whatever
         | else is being used to measure when the last "hot house" periods
         | were? Because today we are measuring CO2 with minute-level
         | resolution. But I feel like an ice core might be a year at
         | best, probably much worse. Which if I'm right would mean we
         | really don't know _how fast or slow_ we entered into the last
         | hot period (the rate)
        
         | dr_dshiv wrote:
         | So it's pretty clear we need to adopt solar radiation
         | management r&d asap. Because that is the only feasible way we
         | will stabilize the heat balance in the next few decades.
        
           | po1nt wrote:
           | We had just that. But we accidentally banned it by banning
           | sulfur in cargo ship fuel.
        
         | jvanderbot wrote:
         | I have total fatigue about it. It is true, and also it is
         | terrifying, and also it is completely debilitating to imagine
         | doing anything effective about this.
        
           | softwaredoug wrote:
           | The silver lining politically: its not like the impact goes
           | away. So progress won't just grind to a halt from one bad
           | administration or one country's government. And there is a
           | lot of progress happening.
        
       | Joel_Mckay wrote:
       | Fires are part of a natural short-term Carbon cycle at around 5
       | years on average. These events have little impact on global
       | climate change, and highlights the absurdity of planting trees
       | for carbon credits.
       | 
       | Long-term carbon cycles last about 30000 years, and the majority
       | of climate change is driven from burning old carbon sources deep
       | in the earths crust.
       | 
       | Fossil oil is incredibly useful stuff, and it is wasteful burning
       | it as fuel. Something to consider between the floods, fires,
       | droughts, and contrarians. lol =3
        
         | TSiege wrote:
         | The Amazon rainforest is not an ecosystem that burns. It's not
         | adapted to it and it effectively destroys it permanently on a
         | human time scale. It requires wet conditions that are fostered
         | by trees and heavy organic forest litter like leaves. Even if a
         | fire in the Amazon only burns the ground litter it will kill
         | the that part of the forest because the trees have adapted to
         | those leaves being there.
         | 
         | The Amazon rainforest is close to a tipping point at which
         | point it will almost entirely die off and convert to Savanah.
         | And if you think fossil fuels are incredibly useful wait till
         | you learn how useful a stable climate has been
        
           | Joel_Mckay wrote:
           | The Amazon rain forest creates its own local wet climate, and
           | when that cycle is broken the place will be far drier than
           | many would expect.
           | 
           | Mismanagement is ultimately a self-correcting problem, as
           | local extinction events are also natural. If I recall the
           | rain-forest floor organic layer is rather thin when compared
           | to other ecosystems.
           | 
           | However, China economic interests in South America
           | agriculture and resources is a complex issue. All world
           | donations sent to help preserve the forest was negligible by
           | comparison. =3
        
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       (page generated 2025-09-27 23:00 UTC)