[HN Gopher] How to rig elections [video]
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How to rig elections [video]
https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.04535
Author : todsacerdoti
Score : 129 points
Date : 2025-08-14 12:04 UTC (10 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (media.ccc.de)
(TXT) w3m dump (media.ccc.de)
| echelon_musk wrote:
| Courageous.
| kwanbix wrote:
| Very.
| nonethewiser wrote:
| Well this starts off with a bang:
|
| >In germany we just saw very public rigging of an election for
| the federal high court of justice.
|
| Not familiar with that but I imagine that is going to be a
| controversial statement.
|
| Using Russia as a subject is interesting. A western audience is
| probably a lot less defensive against the idea that Russia rigs
| their elections. The video looks interesting.
| V__ wrote:
| It isn't. A right wind millionaire and his media outlet started
| a fake campaign against the potential judge. Other media and
| social media jumped on it as well and the "normal" conservative
| party was "concerned". A lot of heel-dragging later, the judge
| had enough and withdrew herself from consideration.
| immibis wrote:
| In Germany it's often illegal to make strong statements like
| this unless they can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. Is
| that the case?
|
| (That's partly why Germany is getting infested with Nazis
| again. You can go to jail for calling them out.)
| V__ wrote:
| It's a civil matter, but yes. Sadly, courts are slow and
| the whole story was "there might have been plagiarism in
| her thesis". Even as traditional media started to explain
| the story as baseless, social media is a different beast.
| ranger_danger wrote:
| Can you provide some sources to back up your claims?
| tietjens wrote:
| It shouldn't be that controversial a statement. It's an
| accurate assessment of what happened this summer in Germany. A
| judicial candidate was destroyed by false claims online. To me
| it seemed like German politicians were reading too much US news
| and wound up aping patterns seen there.
| devjab wrote:
| > Not familiar with that but I imagine that is going to be a
| controversial statement.
|
| I'm not sure if it's fair to call it rigging, but there was a
| massive smear campaign against a judge nominated for their
| constitutional court. Leading to the nomination being withdrawn
| when it really should've been an appointment as usual. Which is
| likely the first massive step toward Germany politicising one
| of the foundations of their democracy, similar to how the USA
| supreme court seems like it's red vs blue when looked on from
| the outside.
|
| I'm guessing this conference is rather left leaning, which is
| why they'd called that rigging, but there wasn't election
| fraud. It's an issue of course, since this means that rich
| people can essentially buy massive influence on the German
| democracy by clever use of social media and lies. Which may
| seem like the norm to a lot of people on HN, but that's not how
| it has traditionally been in Germany.
| nozzlegear wrote:
| > similar to how the USA supreme court seems like it's red vs
| blue when looked on from the outside.
|
| It's not just the outside who see it that way!
| hungryhobbit wrote:
| There's no "seeming": the current US Supreme Court is nakedly
| political.
| stronglikedan wrote:
| Well, they're just people, so of course they are.
| Thankfully, there are folks representing both parties to
| keep it fair.
| dylan604 wrote:
| Thankfully??? Did I miss the /s at the end of that? Do
| you honestly believe it is fairly representing?
| MisterMower wrote:
| I am shocked, shocked I say, at discovering the US
| Supreme Court engages in politics! I got bad news for you
| friend: it always has been. That, or maybe you're one of
| those knaves who thinks it's only fair when your side
| gets to rule.
| dylan604 wrote:
| What part of my comment leads you to take away whatever
| is in your head? I just pointed out that SCOTUS is not a
| fair representation. You've clearly read somethings in
| between the lines or are confusing other threads.
| sixothree wrote:
| I see this so often it gets old especially from a certain
| side of the aisle. If I make an intentionally contained
| and concise argument someone always seems to interpret it
| as if it was part of some larger point I'm making. I used
| to believe it was a tactic to draw you in. But more and
| more I believe it's reading comprehension and a good bit
| of built-in bias.
| MisterMower wrote:
| It is by definition representative and fair: Senators
| chosen by the people approved thier nomination to the
| court. You're not this uninformed about how US politics
| work, are you?
| stronglikedan wrote:
| So they Kavanaugh'd him, but it actually worked!
| dylan604 wrote:
| If Kavanaugh has become a verb, shouldn't Garland'd be a
| thing too when the Senate denies POTUS his constitutional
| right?
| delichon wrote:
| Since Garland didn't even get to a vote, it wasn't
| necessary to Kavanaugh (or Bork) him to the same degree.
| Abe Fortus got denied a vote via filibuster in '68, so
| you could say that Merrick Garland was Fortused.
| dylan604 wrote:
| But a filibuster is an accepted way for the minority to
| fight back. That's not the same thing as making up a new
| rule and denying a vote because it's a lame duck year. To
| equate the two is just strained logic at best.
| FergusArgyll wrote:
| Borked was the original
| robterrell wrote:
| This is the correct answer. More memorable and better
| number of syllables. Although I'm sure he wasn't the
| first either.
| ooopdddddd wrote:
| You are talking like this is the first time judges have been
| blocked for political reasons. See Horst Dreier in 2008 as a
| high-profile example.
| meibo wrote:
| Not to mention that one of the major issues in that debate
| (for the supposedly "centrist" party) was abortion rights -
| even though most of her views on the topic were fairly in
| line with other sitting judges.
|
| It's now alleged that this was caused by a disinformation
| campaign targeting MPs of that party.
|
| https://www.volksverpetzer.de/analyse/brosius-gersdorf-
| union...
| dathinab wrote:
| > imagine that is going to be a controversial statement.
|
| not really
|
| but compared to what seems to be happened nearly daily in the
| US it really is not a big deal
|
| but compared to what is supposed to happen it was a big deal
|
| which seems to be a common trend, being very pissed of about
| what happened in German politics, then looking to the US and
| being "they did what now!?", oh it seems things are still fine
| here
| sho_hn wrote:
| Maybe pick a functional democracy as your yardstick?
| dylan604 wrote:
| Can you provide an example? Are there any left?
| seadan83 wrote:
| France, UK, Norway, Spain, Canada.. here's your list: htt
| ps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
| dathinab wrote:
| France is worse in the index.
|
| UK, Canada, Spain are similar ranked.
|
| Norway is better ranked, sure so are most other Nordic
| countries.
|
| But the difference between a (using their terms) "full
| democracy" and a noticeable better (in the index) "full
| democracy" is much less noticeable then the difference
| between a "full democracy" and a "flawed democracy".
|
| The other thing is that is a more then imperfect index.
| To be able to create such an index you need to select
| metrics and criteria which are strongly oversimplified.
| Weather or not this can lead to a bias. Also there is a
| time delay e.g. 2025 stats are not yet out.
|
| Anyway I'm really getting off topic. The more relevant
| thing is, that it doesn't matter too much if there are
| better (or worse) of countries in the index. What rally
| matters is that you see where your country can improve an
| try to push for it, even if it's just with voting,
| otherwise you will stagnate improvements once you reach a
| relative high standard.
| churchill wrote:
| Watching this brings back memories of Nigeria's 2023 elections.
| It was (one of a series of) turning point(s) for me when it
| slowly sank in that the country wasn't worth building a life in.
| Working remotely & spending in a local currency meant that for
| the past couple of years, I was insulated and could accumulate
| savings with little effort. But, the blatant corruption pushed me
| off the edge.
|
| Quick scan of my social network just confirms the same: anyone
| extremely agentic, intelligent, or educated I know has either
| left, is in the process of leaving, or is considering leaving.
|
| Last person out of Nigeria can turn the lights off.
| adiabatichottub wrote:
| That's very sad to hear. I've been to Lagos and I always have
| wished I could have visited longer. As an American I found it
| an absolutely fascinating place.
| churchill wrote:
| I'm happy (?) you found it fascinating, but only because you
| were visiting. If you had to live in Lagos for, say, 1 year,
| your opinion would change drastically and you'd be eager to
| leave.
| adiabatichottub wrote:
| In many ways it seemed to be a very chaotic place, where
| money makes the rules, and most people get by however they
| can, some in the direst of circumstances. I can understand
| not wanting to live there long-term. But it's also a city
| of over 10 million people, so I can only image there's so
| much more to it. I'm just genuinely glad I had the
| opportunity to visit, because it made real to me the place
| and the people that I would otherwise only hear about on
| the news.
| pastage wrote:
| Considering the population growth of Nigeria I find it hard to
| believe that one of the most populated countries in the world
| will ever run out of talented people.
| churchill wrote:
| The systems eroding the country & making the educated &
| talented leave will make any new batch raised to self-select
| out of the country. In fact, successive generations of
| talented kids won't even be raised (or, only at a
| significantly reduced rate) because of poor investment in
| education.
|
| Or, to be blunt: a syndicate of evil clown politicians have
| seized control of the ship of state, looting it of anything
| not bolted down, and murdering anyone who challenges them.
|
| Fixing it is an extremely high-cost endeavor, so leaving is
| just the only logical option if you have a portable, in-
| demand skill.
|
| Perfect example would be 1940s China vs. modern China. Same
| people, but went from a pre-industrial hellhole to a
| technological superpower because the gov. deliberately
| invested into creating a sustainable STEM pipeline and
| creating a nation where their talented young people are happy
| to live and work. Nigeria isn't doing any of that in any
| significant capacity.
|
| On the population angle, Nigeria's politicians have a thing
| for fudging population numbers and realistic figures are
| closer to 120M to 140M, vs. the 240-260m Western demographers
| take at face value. I explained in detail in this comment
| here. [0]
|
| [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44870564
| rayiner wrote:
| This is why my dad left Bangladesh in 1989. Over the years he
| developed hope that maybe things had turned around. For awhile,
| the government wasn't quite so corrupt and GDP was growing at a
| fast clip. Then the people overthrew the government and now who
| knows. I could see that he was upset about having believed for
| the moment in the country getting better.
| churchill wrote:
| I've been through your comment history and I can relate. If
| you're highly placed enough as an elite, you can form a
| counter-elite and stage a change of government.
|
| But, in most cases, if you have portable, in-demand skills,
| it's more reasonable to decamp to a better team than try to
| fix a failing one. The ones with enough proximity to make any
| change are usually co-opted, driven into exile, threatened
| into compliance, or straight-up murdered.
|
| Based on what I read about her and the Awami League, I think
| removing Hasina will be a net-positive for Bangladesh. Yunus
| is a dyed-in-the-wool capitalist and widely-respected, and if
| they can keep AL out of power, and pacify any extremists, I
| think Bangladesh will quickly continue growing.
| clownworld1 wrote:
| [flagged]
| dylan604 wrote:
| Now do when your country is a democracy. Step 1 would just need
| a few tweaks like defund public media, start your own social
| platforms, have existing social platforms bend the knee,
| appointing judges, appointing executive board members.
| dkiebd wrote:
| I live in a democracy, Spain, and the government controls the
| press through subsidies and ads. All mass media is losing
| money; our biggest media conglomerate has been in a hole of
| almost 1 billion euros for decades. The president of the
| country openly brags on TV about how he controls the public
| prosecutors. A former president (of the same party) changed
| the law so the government elects the judges directly decades
| ago.
|
| Of course you will never hear about this because we are not
| Poland or Hungary, we did not have the audacity of voting the
| way they did :)
| dang wrote:
| Ok, but please don't post unsubstantive comments to Hacker
| News. This subthread (and other similar ones) has nothing to do
| with anything specific or interesting about the actual OP. That
| makes it bad for this site. That remains true, btw, even if
| you're 100% right about everything.
|
| Since unsubstantive/indignant rhetoric tends to attract
| upvotes, generic dross like often floats to the top of threads,
| choking out any actually interesting discussion. Therefore
| please don't post it.
|
| From https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html:
|
| " _Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents._ "
|
| " _Please don 't fulminate._"
| MisterMower wrote:
| Wild that he even had the opportunity to ask these questions and
| do his own investigating. The exact same issues happened in a
| recent US election, but in ours no one was allowed to examine any
| of the things he was able to.
|
| Sounds like elections in both Russia and the US are rotten these
| days. Curious to note which party has no desire to rectify these
| issues.
| lacoolj wrote:
| I want to see his talk on quantum cryptography (referenced early
| in the video). Anyone have the link?
| er0k wrote:
| https://media.ccc.de/v/why2025-217-quantum-cryptography-and-...
| derbOac wrote:
| Are there center or organizations that focus on studying election
| fraud and manipulation and how to identify it? In a rigorous
| nonpartisan (to the extent that's possible) way? Organizations
| that would regularly support and disseminate the sorts of papers
| being discussed?
| reactordev wrote:
| [flagged]
| krapp wrote:
| The funny thing is after Trump cried wolf so hard about the
| 2020 election even if that were true no one would take any
| Democratic attempt at an investigation seriously.
|
| And Trump has even made statements which can easily be
| interpreted as admission[0].
|
| But it doesn't matter.
|
| [0]https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-
| trum...
| reactordev wrote:
| That's right. Cry wolf, no foul, cry wolf again but this
| time, commit foul. Cry wolf one more time for good measure
| and unleash the military on the citizens.
| esafak wrote:
| If you'd rather read about it: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.04535
| dang wrote:
| We'll put that link at the top as well. Thanks!
| arctics wrote:
| So to summarize, people did vote for Putin, major opposition was
| blocked, local elections are rigged.
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(page generated 2025-08-14 23:01 UTC)