[HN Gopher] A new poverty line shifted the World Bank's poverty ...
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       A new poverty line shifted the World Bank's poverty data
        
       Author : alphabetatango
       Score  : 64 points
       Date   : 2025-08-11 07:03 UTC (3 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (ourworldindata.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (ourworldindata.org)
        
       | cbeach wrote:
       | The poverty rate should be based on an absolute amount, adjusted
       | for inflation in the staples, like food and shelter.
       | 
       | Any other kind of adjustment (like, for example, this latest
       | intervention by the World Bank) is political in nature.
       | 
       | We should disregard any statistical data whose collection is
       | politically biased.
        
         | isbwkisbakadqv wrote:
         | How do you think developing counties come up with their poverty
         | lines? This new international number is just the median of
         | those...
        
           | automatic6131 wrote:
           | Usually they choose a deliberately stupid measurement such as
           | "household income below a percentage of the median wage".
           | 
           | This is stupid for many reasons, including (but not limited
           | to): non-monetary, in-kind benefits being excluded, perverse
           | outcomes such as a decline in median wages "reducing poverty"
           | and just about guaranteed continuation of this "poverty". So
           | left wing politicians LOVE it. It's an everlasting cudgel
           | that can never be fixed.
        
             | kingkawn wrote:
             | all your examples would not add up to someone who meets the
             | standards for poverty not in real world terms being too
             | poor to live well
        
             | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
             | It's fairly easy to fix, as long as you are willing to do
             | what it takes to address income inequality. Reduce the Gini
             | coefficient and poverty decreases.
        
               | automatic6131 wrote:
               | That's actually my point: if you take (e.g.) 65% of
               | median income, in a world with a Gini coefficient of 1 -
               | perfect inequality - the rate of poverty is 0%.
        
               | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
               | But that's an edge case that will never occur in reality.
        
             | abdullahkhalids wrote:
             | > non-monetary, in-kind benefits being excluded
             | 
             | This seems sane. The real question one should ask is, how
             | many people can earn a living that allows them to meet
             | basic needs, without state support?
             | 
             | You can have a separate figure that out of the number of
             | poor people (like defined in the last sentence), how many
             | are no longer poor with state support?
        
           | dudeinjapan wrote:
           | There should be a universal human standard to define what
           | extreme poverty is--i.e. the amount needed to secure food,
           | shelter, and clothing--and then that amount should be
           | assessed country-by-country (or region-by-region) by an
           | independent body. The number of $3 per day is well above the
           | "basic needs" threshold in some of the poorest countries, and
           | well below it in the US, for example.
        
             | duskwuff wrote:
             | This is addressed in the article - see the section titled
             | "Estimating comparable national distributions". (In short:
             | income is being scaled relative to purchasing power
             | parity.)
        
         | Hilift wrote:
         | Never happen. Defining and measuring poverty is a sensitive
         | topic with juked stats in every country. The UK for example,
         | has a poverty rate of 46% for families with three or more
         | children. The poverty rate for Pakistani households is 47%.
         | Around 7% of the UK is considered destitute. This data is
         | rarely discussed because it is too unpleasant, and no-one wants
         | to connect the inability to fund the national budget with the
         | lack of money. The US does the same with occasional outlandish
         | claims of "lifting nn% people out of poverty" by spending on
         | programs that usually don't last.
        
       | datadrivenangel wrote:
       | "The poverty line has increased in real terms. And with it, so
       | have the World Bank's estimates of extreme poverty. 125 million
       | people who would not have been counted as extremely poor before
       | June are now included."
       | 
       | I think this is a good change, but maybe would be better to leave
       | the old standard alone in real terms and then make a new
       | category? "the poor will always be with you"
       | 
       | "the poor will always be with you"
        
         | btilly wrote:
         | And yet, to an amazing extent, they aren't.
         | 
         | If you look back in 200 years, poor people starving to death
         | was simply an accepted fact of life. Today, poor people get
         | fat. Do their lives suck? Absolutely! Just look at the
         | craziness around housing. But in terms of resources per person
         | available to the poor? Very few of us realize how good we've
         | got it.
         | 
         | The extreme poverty line has remained essentially the same
         | (adjusted for inflation) for a few decades. Projecting
         | backwards in time, most people in every country used to be in
         | extreme poverty. We are on track to eliminating extreme poverty
         | within our lifetimes. They've adjusted the poverty line
         | upwards. But just watch, life keeps on improving.
        
           | appointment wrote:
           | Where are people living on $3/day getting fat?
        
             | wizzwizz4 wrote:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwashiorkor (note:
             | distressing images)
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | Important distinction:
               | 
               | That is not "fat" in the same way that someone with
               | cirrhosis isn't fat, that is _diseased_
               | 
               | >The name, introduced by Williams in 1935, was derived
               | from the Ga language of coastal Ghana, translated as "the
               | sickness the baby gets when the new baby comes"
               | 
               | Christ that's sad.
        
           | jahnu wrote:
           | People in extreme poverty are not getting fat
           | 
           | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/obesity-vs-gdp
        
             | btilly wrote:
             | No, people in extreme poverty are not getting fat.
             | 
             | But _poor_ people do in great numbers in many countries.
             | For example there are many obese Americans on food stamps.
             | 
             | Thanks to social services, the number of Americans who are
             | in extreme poverty is approximately zero. When I compare to
             | history, I far prefer this state of affairs to what used to
             | be the norm.
        
               | dartharva wrote:
               | > Thanks to social services, the number of Americans who
               | are in extreme poverty is approximately zero.
               | 
               | I wish I could make myself have such confidence in any
               | government entity as much as you seem to have in US
               | social services
        
               | JoachimSchipper wrote:
               | You're commenting on an article about people consuming
               | less than $3/day; Americans on food stamps (SNAP appears
               | to be about $4-6/day alone, not counting any other
               | benefits) are a distraction, simply not part of the
               | population that the article is discussing.
        
               | cwmoore wrote:
               | So $10/day for 8.2B people is only $30 trillion a year.
               | Tax the bots for UBI. AGI could make that in a weekend.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | _> For example there are many obese Americans on food
               | stamps._
               | 
               | All of their own fault. I recently saw a youtube
               | compilation of tiktok clips of Americans on food stamps
               | making videos flaunting their overfull supermarket
               | shopping carts and it was all name brand junk food made
               | up of refined carbs, fats and sugars, and to no ones
               | surprise, they were all obese. No vegetables, no fruits,
               | no leafy greens, no legumes, but all junk food which
               | costs more than the healthy stuff. Who's fault is that?
               | At what point is personal accountability supposed to kick
               | in?
               | 
               | If you can afford a roof over your head, a car, and
               | entire shopping carts full of name brand junk food(which
               | is more expensive than healthy food) to make yourself
               | obese, you are anything but poor, you are just stupid and
               | glutenous.
               | 
               | Edit: I see the downvotes, but notice nobody is saying
               | that I am wrong? ;) So then we agree that I'm right.
        
               | BriggyDwiggs42 wrote:
               | You're being deliberately incendiary and you're saying
               | like the simplest thing. Why might they be buying trash
               | food? Why didn't their parents teach them not to? Why is
               | the shit food so addictive? Is it, perhaps, the cheapest
               | way to get something tasty? Maybe there are underlying
               | social problems, and that's more interesting to discuss
               | than "poor people are stupid and gluttonous."
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | _> You're being deliberately incendiary_
               | 
               | Which part was "incendiary"?
               | 
               |  _> you're saying like the simplest thing_
               | 
               | The truth is often simple, people are just too scared to
               | confront it. So they call it "incendiary".
               | 
               |  _> Is it, perhaps, the cheapest way to get something
               | tasty?_
               | 
               | Healthy food is also tasty and cheaper than highly
               | processed junk food. But it's easier to blame
               | externalities than take accountability.
               | 
               |  _> Maybe there are underlying social problems, and
               | that's more interesting to discuss than "poor people are
               | stupid and gluttonous."_
               | 
               | Why aren't poor people in poorer countries fat despite
               | suffering even bigger social issue like war, slavery,
               | rapes and famine?
        
               | lovich wrote:
               | > name brand junk food(which is more expensive than
               | healthy food)
               | 
               | Do you think a banana is 10 dollars too? Grains and bread
               | are cheaper. Rotisserie chickens sold as loss leaders are
               | a cheap source of meat. But fruits and vegetables?
               | 
               | Those are more expensive per calorie than junk food.
               | Especially when you take into account spoilage
               | 
               | > Edit: I see the downvotes, but notice nobody is saying
               | that I am wrong? ;) So then we agree that I'm right.
               | 
               | No we do not agree. You're incorrect and vindictive about
               | it
        
               | anxoo wrote:
               | >Thanks to social services, the number of Americans who
               | are in extreme poverty is approximately zero.
               | 
               | or 4.19 million, if you wanted to spend 2 minutes and
               | look up [the
               | source](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/poverty-
               | explorer?tab=li...) actually listed in the main article
        
       | datax2 wrote:
       | I am not a fan of their initial "Global Income Distribution"
       | curve. if you take the actual data at the bottom of the article
       | and plot it; it does not make anything the resembles a standard
       | distribution as portrayed. It could be an infographic, it could
       | be different axis, who knows, but portraying a standard
       | distribution is wrong if you have an outlying skew in your
       | distribution. Everything under $40 is a standard distribution,
       | but above $40 represents the same volume of people as the average
       | skewing any sort of plotting.
       | 
       | For 2025 only
       | 
       | Global People | Dollars
       | 
       | 1,183,873,832 | above $40
       | 
       | 389,144,677 | $30-$40
       | 
       | 681,087,495 | $20-$30
       | 
       | 1,647,364,177 | $10-$20
       | 
       | 1,134,291,724 | $7-$10
       | 
       | 1,170,170,455 | $5-$7
       | 
       | 1,185,828,184 | $3-$5
       | 
       | 700,440,541 | $1-$3
       | 
       | 107,765,635 | <$1
        
         | pc86 wrote:
         | I wish these numbers were percentile relative to the local
         | economy and not in made-up "international dollars."
         | 
         | It means absolutely nothing that 1.1B people live on $3-5/day
         | and a different 1.1B live on $5-7. Can you survive in the local
         | economy on $2/day? Then $4/day is not that bad, and $7/day is
         | doing pretty well.
        
           | vlovich123 wrote:
           | That's a fair criticism but given how the economy has
           | globalized, people also exploit that discrepancy by hiring
           | remote workers abroad so it's not completely irrelevant
        
           | vharuck wrote:
           | I'm no international poverty economist, but I imagine lower
           | income relative to neighboring countries would still have
           | some effect. For instance, if a poor country suffers a famine
           | in its staple crop, can that government and its citizens
           | afford to import food?
        
           | pessimizer wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity
        
         | nilstycho wrote:
         | The x-axis isn't "income", it's "log income".
        
       | CGMthrowaway wrote:
       | I find the plots of distribution of global income here very
       | illuminating - https://www.gapminder.org/income-mountains-
       | dataset-v2/
       | 
       | Because the nicely shaped bell curves used in TFA are not at all
       | what the distribution actually looks like. There is a significant
       | right-skew. Don't miss the log-scale on x-axis in the first few
       | graphs as well.
        
         | nilstycho wrote:
         | The distributions in TFA are accurate. Compare with the shape
         | of the 2015 distribution here: https://ourworldindata.org/the-
         | history-of-global-economic-in...
        
       | mannyv wrote:
       | When the benchmark changes, you should ask 'why.'
       | 
       | According TFA the number of people in extreme poverty dropped
       | when using the old IPL value, and went up with the new value.
       | 
       | So politically, no NGO wants to say poverty decreased, because
       | that might reduce urgency, and thus priority. So moving the
       | goalposts means a 50% increase in poverty instead of a 20%
       | decrease in poverty. Which one benefits your mission more?
       | 
       | That's not to say the revision of the IPL was wrong. But it does
       | further the mission. Did the improved statistical methods trigger
       | the IPL revision? It's hard to tell without internal world bank
       | docs. I'll bet it did.
        
         | Guthur wrote:
         | If you want something even more illuminating check the detailed
         | annual report from the UN on the progress of the 2030 plan, the
         | only measures that are consistently improving are those around
         | governance and control not the well being of people.
        
           | barbazoo wrote:
           | What report are you referring to?
        
         | readthenotes1 wrote:
         | Re NGOs:
         | 
         | A friend of mine once said
         | 
         | "If the problem weren't so valuable, they would have solved it
         | by now"
        
           | ForHackernews wrote:
           | Like how Uber solved transport? Or Amazon solved online
           | shopping?
        
             | ljsprague wrote:
             | We're not talking about corporations; we're talking about
             | government bureaucracies.
        
           | victorbjorklund wrote:
           | That sounds good but makes little sense. Makes just as much
           | sense as the people claiming there is a cure for cancer that
           | works 100% with no side-effects but that "they" hide it
           | because it is so profitable to treat sick people.
        
             | victorbjorklund wrote:
             | Or for a more HN-example. If IT-security wasnt so valueable
             | as an industry we would have solved IT-security long ago.
        
               | lesuorac wrote:
               | Well, I think the general counter for a "cure-for-cancer"
               | is the same as electric cars.
               | 
               | The Big4 never wanted EVs with there being a documentary
               | [1] on how much they hated them. However, a company that
               | isn't the big-4 has no issue with creating one.
               | 
               | Same with a cure-for-cancer. Sure, maybe Pfizer doesn't
               | want to cannabalize their market but anybody that isn't
               | Pfizer would love to.
               | 
               | I don't think IT-security fits into the same model
               | though. There's a lot of money in theft so you need a lot
               | of money into anti-theft to counter-act it.
               | 
               | Poverty imo fits the IT-security model more-so than cure-
               | for-cancer. Each dollar you don't pay somebody in
               | Madagascar to farm vanilla is a dollar you get to keep.
               | 
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electri
               | c_Car%3F
        
             | caseysoftware wrote:
             | I think the strongest counter-signal that there's a "secret
             | cure for cancer" is that rich, powerful people still get it
             | (in various forms), go through debilitating treatment, and
             | often still die.
             | 
             | Unless, of course, they're faking their deaths and
             | transplanting their consciounesses into younger, healthy
             | bodies. Then I got nothing.
        
           | hluska wrote:
           | Your friend isn't very smart and you'd likely be better off
           | if you stopped quoting them. You've just lumped every single
           | NGO in with a very small minority of bad ones - three seconds
           | of research would have spared you from writing that.
        
         | grafmax wrote:
         | The World Bank is not an NGO. It's owned and run by 189
         | governments. It's not a private organization.
        
         | shkkmo wrote:
         | > When the benchmark changes, you should ask 'why.'
         | 
         | The article goes into detail about why the poverty line
         | changed. You must have skimmed past the secrion titled "How the
         | World Bank sets the International Poverty Line".
         | 
         | The TLDR; is that it is at root based on the median poverty
         | line set by the government of very poor countries (which is
         | calculated in a complex way that is explained in footnotes and
         | cited articles.)
         | 
         | At root, it isn't NGOs that caused the number to change, but it
         | was inderectly caused by changes in how poor countries measure
         | poverty themselves.
        
         | hluska wrote:
         | I'm not sure where to begin. The World Bank is not an NGO and
         | is not funded like you think. And (to steal your phrase) TFA
         | explains it in detail - purchasing power parity was updated so
         | the number was updated. All in, this comment is nonsense.
        
         | waffleiron wrote:
         | Why on hacker news when it comes to tech salaries, if they stay
         | for a year the same everyone calls it a reduction due to
         | inflation.
         | 
         | However in cases of poor people and poverty there must be an
         | ulterior motive.
        
           | lovich wrote:
           | It's a VC backed forum, there's a bias towards a population
           | that looks down on the poor and fetishizes wealth.
           | 
           | It's not everyone or even a majority but because of the VC
           | backing it's going to be more than the general population
        
             | Steven420 wrote:
             | Are you suggesting that hn is removing comment's/post's
             | that don't look down on the poor or fetishize wealth? I'm
             | not sure how hn being vc backed has any influence on how I
             | or anyone else here comments
        
               | bryzaguy wrote:
               | It sounds like parent comment is suggesting that hn
               | attracts a demographic of people who look down on the
               | poor and fetishize wealth, not that it's suppressing
               | posts or trying to influence comments.
        
         | rambojohnson wrote:
         | Ah so the whole theory rests on "poverty numbers went up,
         | therefore NGOs must be moving the goalposts to keep the cash
         | flowing", backed by nothing but your own suspicion, then
         | wrapped in a half-baked sentence about "maybe it was
         | legitimate" so you can claim neutrality. Got it.
        
           | ljsprague wrote:
           | He didn't actually make that claim. He's just making sure we
           | know NGOs have a "preference" for which way the numbers go.
        
         | downrightmike wrote:
         | If there aren't enough poor people, the NGOs can just start
         | buying SFH like every other entity
        
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