[HN Gopher] Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer
        
       Author : logan1085
       Score  : 135 points
       Date   : 2025-08-11 16:04 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (middlelayer.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (middlelayer.substack.com)
        
       | empath75 wrote:
       | I do a ridiculous amount of dumb shit with cursor without paying
       | extra for it and I can't be the only one. There is just no way
       | they will ever make a profit with their current all-you-can-eat
       | model. Like there have been times I have just copy and pasted
       | code into a cursor window for the AI to add when I could have
       | just pasted it myself just because it makes the context easier to
       | deal with.
       | 
       | However, they will eventually get purchased by an AI company
       | because the _product_ is great.
        
         | CharlesW wrote:
         | > _However, they will eventually get purchased by an AI company
         | because the _product_ is great._
         | 
         | 'Great' is in the eye of the beholder. For me, Cursor was one
         | of the least-effective solutions of the many options (from
         | Cursor and other AIDEs, to repo-centric web-based options like
         | Jules, to CLI-based options like Claude Code) I evaluated a few
         | months ago.
        
           | skeaker wrote:
           | Did you keep a list of how each solution ranked? I'd be
           | curious to see it (genuinely).
        
         | damon_c wrote:
         | You are not the only one.
         | 
         | "Revert the changes to <file>..." 4 zillion tokens... 10
         | seconds...
         | 
         | Instead of > git checkout <file>
         | 
         | just to keep Cursor in the loop.
         | 
         | I assume I have probably eaten up my $20/month in tokens just
         | on stuff like that.
        
           | verdverm wrote:
           | At least in Copilot, the revert changes is more like
           | undo/redo of a series of changes. Often I want to keep all of
           | the changes except for the most recent one
           | 
           | git checkout would destroy this (and "corrupts" the Copilot
           | session state)
        
           | thinkingtoilet wrote:
           | Believe it or not, you can use Cursor _and_ type in git
           | checkout yourself. It 's pretty wild.
        
       | andrewmcwatters wrote:
       | Can anyone tell me their experience with Cursor vs GitHub
       | Copilot? I use GitHub Copilot Pro right now through Visual Studio
       | Code, and tried Cursor, but Cursor just seemed like a more
       | expensive GitHub Copilot Pro.
       | 
       | Like, I'm publishing https://github.com/andrewmcwattersandco/git-
       | fetch-file right now with Claude Sonnet 4 (thank you for recently
       | upvoting that to the front page). And the whole repository view
       | that GitHub Copilot and Claude Sonnet 4 have on my projects seems
       | like the same exact thing you get in Cursor, but Cursor for some
       | reason took longer with the exact same models, and I'm not sure
       | why.
       | 
       | Maybe they prompt the models differently? I haven't taken a look.
       | 
       | Also, Cursor seems to be literally a Visual Studio Code fork! But
       | everyone's talking about it lately, and no one is mentioning
       | this. I don't understand.
        
         | trenchpilgrim wrote:
         | GitHub Copilot by itself is not directly comparable to Cursor.
         | For example I use Zed + Copilot + Claude together at work for a
         | similar workflow to Cursor.
        
           | andrewmcwatters wrote:
           | Zed Agentic mode, Cursor, and Visual Studio Code with GitHub
           | Copilot all have the same developer experience. That's what
           | I'm confused about.
           | 
           | Cursor seems like the weakest player of the three, because
           | it's just a Visual Studio Code fork.
        
             | trenchpilgrim wrote:
             | This is where it starts to get subjective, but changing one
             | part of the toolkit can have a huge effect on the quality
             | of the assistant. For example I tried GPT 4.1 instead of
             | Claude 4 recently and it took my setup from improving my
             | productivity by 3-5x on coding tasks to, like, 0.5x. I
             | can't point to a specific change other than tasks went from
             | being done in 5 minutes if back and forth to being only
             | partly done in 15 minutes.
             | 
             | I haven't used VSC in a year or Cursor at all, but I hear
             | similar things from colleagues.
        
             | heeton wrote:
             | Annoyingly I'm finding cursor's autocomplete to be better
             | than others, even though it's agent editing is not as good
             | as claude code.
             | 
             | So I'm using CC in cursor (the little integration is nice)
             | to get the best of both. None of cursors other AI features
             | are helping though.
        
         | parpfish wrote:
         | not exactly what you asked, but i've tried out Junie[0] because
         | I've already got JetBrainz IDEs set up and love them.
         | 
         | It's terrible. For comparison, I've only used cursor on
         | greenfield toy projects, but cursor is way better at the
         | agentic stuff (the actual code generation AND the "review these
         | changes" workflow) AND the tab/auto-complete stuff.
         | 
         | I hope Junie can make some leaps because I really like
         | JetBrainz and dont want to see them fall behind
         | 
         | [0] https://www.jetbrains.com/junie/
        
           | andrewmcwatters wrote:
           | Ah, nice. So far I've now seen Visual Studio Code with GitHub
           | Copilot, Cursor, Zed with Agentic Editing, and now Junie.
           | 
           | It looks like chat-based agentic editing like this is going
           | to be table stakes for AI-assisted editing moving forward.
        
             | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
             | > So far I've now seen Visual Studio Code with GitHub
             | Copilot, Cursor, Zed with Agentic Editing, and now Junie.
             | 
             | Kiro, Void, Windsurf, Cline, Kilo, ... many, many others.
        
       | bko wrote:
       | I don't know, it seems like I'm the minority but I like Cursor. I
       | think it adds value beyond the terminal style editors. Yes it
       | relies on the Claude model but I get a lot of value from the
       | visual component, history, auto-complete, etc.
       | 
       | Couldn't you make the same argument around something like S3? How
       | many companies are basically S3 wrappers? Or companies that use
       | general AWS infra and make it slightly better. There could still
       | be a market for add on products. Why would Claude or OpenAI want
       | the headache of managing an IDE? They're okay giving up some
       | margin there.
       | 
       | I agree there is a huge rush of "AI wrapper" companies, whose
       | moat is basically prompt engineering. Like a "AI buddy" or
       | whatever. Those are all going to zero IMO. But things like Cursor
       | have a future. Maybe not at the hyped valuation but long term
       | something like this will exist
        
         | ramoz wrote:
         | It's not really the same because the provider in this case
         | isn't necessarily shipping a traditional service, they're
         | shipping intelligence. We've confused APIs as the end-state for
         | providers. Providers are going to eat every abstraction along
         | the way in their delivery of intelligent capabilities. Claude
         | Code is just the start. A true agentic intelligent capability
         | that shifts a paradigm for ways of working. It will evolve into
         | Claude Agent for general-purpose digital work.
         | 
         | There's a lot of talk around economics. What is going to be
         | more economic than a provider building abstractions/margin-
         | optimizations around the tokens, and shipping directly to
         | consumer. Vs token arbitrage.
         | 
         | Lastly, there's a lot of industry hype and narrative around
         | agents. In my opinion, Claude Code is really the only effective
         | & actual agent; the first born. It shows that Anthropic is a
         | signaling that the leading providers will no longer just train
         | models. They are creating intelligent capabilities within the
         | post training phases / in RL. They are shipping the brain and
         | the mech suit for it. Hence, eat the stack. From terminal to
         | desktop, eventual robotics.
        
           | ethbr1 wrote:
           | > _Providers are going to eat every abstraction along the way
           | in their delivery of intelligent capabilities. [...] There 's
           | a lot of talk around economics. What is going to be more
           | economic than a provider building abstractions/margin-
           | optimizations around the tokens, and shipping directly to
           | consumer. Vs token arbitrage._
           | 
           | The strongman counter-argument would be that specialized
           | interfaces to AI will always require substantial amounts of
           | work to create and maintain.
           | 
           | If true, then similar to Microsoft, it might make more
           | financial sense for Anthropic et al. to cede those
           | specialized markets to others, focus on their core platform
           | product, take a cut from many different specialized products,
           | and end up making more as the addressable market broadens.
           | 
           | The major AI model providers substantially investing in
           | specialized interfaces would suggest they're pessimistic
           | about revolutionary core model improvements and are thus
           | looking to vertically integration to preserve margin / moat.
           | 
           | But relatively speaking, it doesn't seem like interfaces are
           | being inordinately invested in, and coding seems such an
           | obvious agentic target (and dogfoodable learning
           | opportunity!) that it shouldn't prompt tea leaf reading.
        
           | throwup238 wrote:
           | _> It shows that Anthropic is a signaling that the leading
           | providers will no longer just train models._
           | 
           | I think it instead (or also?) shows a related but orthogonal
           | signal: that the ability and resources to train models are a
           | strong competitive advantage. This is most obvious with deep
           | research and I haven't seen any wrapper or open source
           | project achieve anywhere near the same quality as
           | Gemini/Claude deep research, but Claude Code is a close
           | runner up.
        
         | ghysznje wrote:
         | Have you tried Claude code vscode plugin? It's has almost
         | everything cursor has to offer
        
           | bko wrote:
           | I've used Claude Code but not the vs code plugin. I get
           | enough value from the auto-complete that I'll use Cursor
           | regardless, but I don't think it's worth $20 for that.
           | 
           | But now it's subsidized so I easily spend over $50 of Claude
           | credits for my $20 in Cursor.
           | 
           | Also the ability to swap out models is a big value add and I
           | don't have to worry about latest and greatest. I switch
           | seamlessly. Something comes out, next day its on Claude. So
           | now I'm using GPT which is less than half the price. I don't
           | want to have to think about it or constantly consider other
           | options. I want a standardized interface and plug in whatever
           | intelligence I want. Kind of like a dropbox that can worry
           | about whether they store in AWS, Azure or GCP depending which
           | one is the best value prop.
        
         | manojlds wrote:
         | Claude Code with current IDE integration is already very good.
         | Only thing missing is completion that Cursor is pretty good at.
        
           | wmichelin wrote:
           | I'm super excited to try the Cursor CLI
           | https://cursor.com/cli
        
             | koakuma-chan wrote:
             | Claude Code has always been unparalleled. It's almost as if
             | other AI CLI devs have no idea what they're doing.
        
           | CjHuber wrote:
           | For me VScode with Github Copilot + Claude Code hits the
           | sweet spot
        
         | conradev wrote:
         | I'd love for someone to try to define "AI wrapper".
         | 
         | I'm trying to imagine a graph where at some point in time t
         | 
         | the status of a company changes from "wrapper" (not enough
         | "original" engineering)
         | 
         | to "proper company" (they own the IP, and they fought for
         | it!!!)
         | 
         | At what point did OpenAI cease being an NVIDIA wrapper and
         | become the world's leading AI lab? At what point did NVIDIA
         | graduate from being a TSMC wrapper?
         | 
         | Clearly any company that gets TSMC N2 node allocation is going
         | to win, the actual details of the chip don't matter super much.
        
           | bko wrote:
           | 'Wrapper' in this instance is your primary source of value is
           | a prompt.
           | 
           | I think you can think of it as how long would it take someone
           | to come up with the product given enough information about
           | the product.
           | 
           | Take for instance an app that is a "companion" app. It's
           | simplest form is a prompt + LLM + interface. They don't own
           | the LLM so they have the prompt and interface. The prompt is
           | simple enough to figure out (often by asking the app in a
           | clever way) so the interface is left. How easy is it to
           | replicate? If it's like chatgpt, pretty easy.
           | 
           | Now there are a few complications. Suppose there are network
           | effects (Instagram is a wrapper around a protocol), but the
           | network effects are the value. And LLM wrapper can create
           | network effects (maybe there is a way to share or something)
           | but difficult.
           | 
           | OpenAI is not a wrapper on NVIDIA because it would take
           | billions of dollars to train the LLM with the NVIDIA chips
           | (in energy). It would take me a weekend to recreate a GPT
           | wrapper or just fork an open source implementation. There is
           | also institutional knowledge (which is why Meta is offering
           | 1bn+ for a single eng). Or take something like Excel. People
           | know how it works, people have dissected it endlessly. But
           | the cost to recreate even with perfect knowledge is very
           | high, plus there is network effects.
        
           | cafebeen wrote:
           | Taking a shot at this, one concrete definition might be that
           | the business model is essentially white labeling, that is,
           | the base LLM is rebranded, but task performance in the
           | problem domain is not functionally improved in some
           | measurable way. As a corollary, it means the user could
           | receive the same value if they had gone straight to the base
           | LLM provider.
           | 
           | I think this might be more narrow than most uses of the term
           | "wrapper" though.
        
           | nativeit wrote:
           | Every company you mentioned is just a wrapper around
           | elemental carbon and silicon.
        
       | moritzwarhier wrote:
       | I know the submission parent of the discussion I'm gonna link is
       | not for everyone and might be considered a "rant", but the
       | subject immediately reminds me of this:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44424456
       | 
       |  _Make Fun of Them_ (42 days ago, 43 comments)
       | 
       | Specifically the product value compared to the operating cost.
       | 
       | Now, if the tool (Claude Code) really is very valuable, and
       | Cursor is just a very good integration, and they manage to guard
       | their moat (brand, subscription, glue code), maybe there's
       | something to it.
       | 
       | I'm not a businessperson, like I said, just immediately reminded
       | me of that post I read on the weekend.
        
       | moomin wrote:
       | I know this isn't the point of the article, but that's not how
       | the drug trade works at all. The producers make very little. The
       | real money is in the logistics. Which you could argue is the
       | cloud providers but the analogy isn't great anyway.
        
         | johnisgood wrote:
         | This is new to me. Are you saying the people producing the
         | drugs make very little?
        
           | taude wrote:
           | yeah, this makes no sense. Don't the cartels control all
           | aspects from production to distribution?
        
             | taftster wrote:
             | Yes, but the distribution (of a highly addictive product)
             | is what sells. Not the raw ingredients or manufacturing,
             | per se.
        
           | churchill wrote:
           | Yes. For cocaine, for example, they have large farmer
           | networks that cultivate coca, harvest and process it lightly
           | (drying, etc.). The cartels then finish the process and
           | undertake the logistics of shipping it across borders, into
           | the US, or across the Atlantic into Europe.
           | 
           | This logistical leg is where most of the work is done since
           | you have to:
           | 
           | Maintain large slush funds for bribing law enforcement.
           | 
           | Run workshops and technicians that strip civilians cars,
           | embed cocaine in the nooks and hand them over to American
           | civilians to drive over the border.
           | 
           | Hire engineers from Pakistani universities to build narco-
           | submarines in riverine deltas, which are then used to cross
           | the Atlantic for European supplies.
           | 
           | Maintain contact with your African coastal syndicates who
           | have another trans-Saharan route for getting drugs into
           | Europe.
           | 
           | Run payroll for your workforce (this is a business after
           | all).
           | 
           | Maintain a decently trained fighting force to slaughter
           | enemies that encroach on your turf. Or informants,
           | uncompromising cops, politicians, etc. This includes
           | training, paying, initiating them, and hiring good
           | experienced fighters. Right now, it's credibly reported that
           | Mexican cartels are volunteering to fight in Ukraine to gain
           | experience with drones and other UAVs to expand their war-
           | making capabilities.
           | 
           | Hire chemistry undergrads from local STEM universities to
           | turn synthetic precursors from Asia into fentanyl, etc.
           | 
           | So, just like African cocoa farmers and American growers see
           | just a tiny slice of the profit the end-products produce, the
           | cartels are in the logistics & firepower business; they've
           | outsourced a huge chunk of the business to growers, just like
           | their peers in the chocolate and grocery business.
        
           | moomin wrote:
           | Yes, the average heroin farmer is making more money than a
           | wheat farmer, but he sells it to someone who can get it to
           | America.
        
       | thurn wrote:
       | I think Cursor tab-completion is entirely in-house, right? That
       | feature on its own is worth at least $5/month, it's super well
       | done.
        
         | TSiege wrote:
         | I think this is up to the user. I actually found tab so
         | annoying that it was a big reason I quit cursor and cancelled
         | my sub. I couldn't think straight with it constantly suggesting
         | things to put in after every key stroke and caused a few
         | annoying bugs for me.
         | 
         | I find pure claude and neovim to be a great pair. I set up
         | custom vim commands to make sharing file paths, line numbers,
         | and code super easy. that way I can move quickly through code
         | for manual developing as well as have claude right there with
         | the context it needs quickly.
        
         | manojlds wrote:
         | And dare I say their only remaining moat.
        
           | cyberax wrote:
           | JetBrains IDEs also have that.
        
         | hakanderyal wrote:
         | I'm paying $20/m just for tab, and willing to pay $40/m just to
         | have it in Rider so I can return back to using single IDE.
        
           | regularjack wrote:
           | Doesn't Rider have JetBraims AI? It's basically the same
           | thing as Cursor.
        
         | stavros wrote:
         | I agree, their tab completion is magical.
        
       | ebiester wrote:
       | Everyone is fighting for their view of the world right now and
       | for those of us who do not have any investment in the success of
       | one of the models, it feels like pure speculation at this point.
       | 
       | I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict
       | the state of the industry in 3 years. In my entire time in the
       | industry, I have always felt like I had a good line of sight
       | three years away. Even when the iphone came on the scene, it felt
       | like a generational increase rather than a revolution.
       | 
       | We just have no idea. We don't know the extent of how it can
       | improve. We don't know if we are still on exponential improvement
       | or the end of the S curve. We don't know what investment is going
       | to be like. We don't know if there is autonomy in the future. We
       | don't know if it's going to look more like the advancement of
       | autonomous vehicles where everyone thought we were just a year or
       | two away from full autonomy - or at least people bought the hype
       | cycle.
       | 
       | Any anyone who says they know has something to sell you.
        
         | throwup238 wrote:
         | It's exciting, isn't it? I've been programming for a quarter
         | century now and this is the first time in 20 years that the
         | future of tech is exciting again and the world is software's
         | oyster.
         | 
         | Can't wait for AI 2.0 and ads :(
        
           | nartho wrote:
           | Is it though ? I feel like what ML can achieve is amazing,
           | but, call me a pessimist, I'm bracing for the influx of
           | elaborate scams, propaganda, deep fakes etc who will manage
           | to drive a wedge even further in our society than social
           | networks did. As for programming, my skills are not good
           | enough not to risk an atrophy if I use code completion. I do
           | ask Claude for feedback though. I've always been a tech
           | enthusiast but this is the first time I want to build a cabin
           | in the woods and live off-grid. The tech itself is amazing
           | but I'm not looking forward to all the slop we're going to be
           | flooded with.
        
             | throwup238 wrote:
             | Oh absolutely. If the history of the internet, social
             | media, and smartphones is anything to go by, those negative
             | consequences are coming like a freight train and this will
             | all end in tears in a decade or two. Or even sooner,
             | because that cycle seems to be accelerating too - education
             | probably being the prime example.
             | 
             | But like the OP said, we can't even predict what's going to
             | happen even three years out so I've just resigned myself to
             | "going with the flow" and enjoying the ride as much as I
             | can. If the negative consequences are coming for us, might
             | as well get as much benefit as we can now while we're all
             | still wide eyed and bushy tailed.
        
             | jimkleiber wrote:
             | Yea i think a lot of wars have come about from a change in
             | communication technology (eg, radio, film), and can imagine
             | AI might cause a lot of chaos until we learn how to deal
             | with AI-generated video, audio, text, and images. Imagine
             | if Goebbels or the Rwandan genocide had access to AI?
        
           | shazbotter wrote:
           | Exciting is one word for it. The dot com crash was also
           | "exciting", I suppose.
           | 
           | I see it as a chance for the capital class to sell everyone
           | shovels and build railroads that will further cement their
           | power and influence, all the while insisting software and art
           | are more democratic than ever. All the while using the same
           | tools to build surveillance infrastructure that will make any
           | dissent impossible.
           | 
           | So yeah, exciting is one word you could choose.
        
           | webdood90 wrote:
           | As exciting as nuclear armageddon, sure.
        
           | bazmattaz wrote:
           | > and ads
           | 
           | Ha this is so true. All the major LLMs have a surprisingly ad
           | free experience right now. Likely because they're all
           | aggressively competing for customers. But as soon as one of
           | them realises the money that can be made from ads and how
           | that will pay for daily operation costs after the investors
           | give up investing, then the game is up
        
             | tomrod wrote:
             | They're not ad-free. Ads are integrated into the content of
             | the responses. For example, ChatGPT biases towards itself
             | as a provider of services even when asking it not to. This
             | behavior is easy to see and probably will be replicated out
             | for paying clients.
        
               | jongjong wrote:
               | Yes for sure companies are already paying for having
               | their products added to the training set of popular LLMs.
        
               | tyre wrote:
               | Source?
        
           | hadlock wrote:
           | one of the big reasons I'm rooting for AI is it's a valid
           | alternative to search engines and they've baked a paid model
           | into the revenue stream from the very beginning. I'm more
           | than happy to pay a premium for the ad free version
        
         | SalmoShalazar wrote:
         | Nice to see some balanced skepticism rather than the constant
         | barrage of prognostication and bold opinions stated as fact.
         | This kind of take doesn't drive engagement though.
        
         | crinkly wrote:
         | Agreed.
         | 
         | The trick I've always used in these circumstances is the
         | cynical approach. That is assume nothing changes. If it does
         | change, adopt late, rather than burn all your time, money and
         | energy on churn and experimentation.
         | 
         | In the last 35 years of doing this, I've seen perhaps 10% of
         | technology actually stick around for more than a few years.
         | I'll adopt at maturity and discard when it's thoroughly
         | obsolete.
         | 
         | Being fintech, no technology so far has fundamentally changed
         | what business we do or even how it's done for a long time even
         | if we pretend it does. A lot of the changes have just been a
         | cost naively written off through arbitrary justification or
         | keeping up with trends. 99% of what we do is CRUD, shit reports
         | and batch processing, just like it was when it was S/390.
         | 
         | Even fewer things have had an ROI or a real customer benefit.
         | Then again we have actual customers not investors.
        
         | antithesizer wrote:
         | You clearly are selling something, too: doubt. (Note your
         | appeal to your own authority.)
         | 
         | Don't kid yourself. Skepticism is not neutrality. These days
         | throwing shade is a growth industry. There's money to be made
         | shorting just like there is going long. Neither is the
         | objective, disinterested position, although skepticism always
         | enjoys the appearance of prudence, at least to the ignorant.
         | 
         | Anyone who says they're not trying to sell you something lacks
         | self-awareness about what they themselves have been sold.
        
         | benjsm wrote:
         | I really like this. It feels like the only inevitability is
         | change. Change, to some extent, not yet known.
        
         | Therenas wrote:
         | This isn't your main point, but the iPhone absolutely was the
         | biggest revolution since the Internet. The world before it is
         | wholly different to the world after it. AI looks to have a
         | similar impact, but just like the iPhone it'll be a few years
         | before everyone realizes the world has changed.
        
           | cheschire wrote:
           | It wasn't on day one though.
        
           | grim_io wrote:
           | The iPhone opened up a whole new world of opportunities which
           | were very clear from the start.
           | 
           | No one, except Steve Ballmer, would describe it as a
           | potential fad or question how good it can actually get before
           | Apple goes bankrupt from all the investment into this new
           | tech.
           | 
           | I like this new stuff we get now, but the iPhone felt like a
           | clear win with no downsides of a potential societal collapse.
        
             | gerad wrote:
             | Mobile phone addiction is our generation's smoking. We just
             | don't realize it yet.
        
               | grim_io wrote:
               | Good point.
               | 
               | Pretty sure it's known. But, just like smoking, it's
               | tolerated. Can't make the line go down.
        
             | epistasis wrote:
             | I was there and it was a very common view, though perhaps
             | not a majority view, that the iPhone was a flash in the
             | pan. There were lots of people committed to the idea that
             | only physical keyboards could work for mobile. Touch
             | interfaces were viewed highly skeptically. And it wasn't
             | just the Microsoft or Palm people saying it, it was large
             | chunks of their customers. The initial goal of the iPhone
             | was 1%, yes, 1% share of the phone market! And many thought
             | that was impossible for Apple and their strange new device.
        
               | grim_io wrote:
               | Where are we now? Around the 3s era?
               | 
               | By then, no one was saying that anymore.
               | 
               | The AI scepticism is still going strong.
        
           | ruszki wrote:
           | There were mobile internet, touchscreen, "large" screen,
           | downloadable mobile apps before iPhone. I could listen to
           | music and watch movies on my phone before iPhone. I'm
           | continuously online since 2001. AFAIK it had not a single
           | major feature which didn't exist before, except its design.
           | It really had a terrific design for its time.
           | 
           | It was a step forward, but it was incremental. Internet was
           | also incremental. In every sense. Just because the general
           | populace didn't hear about it until then, didn't mean that it
           | was that "revolutionary". Yes, they crossed a line which made
           | them useful, something what people want. Sometimes mainly
           | because of marketing. But still incremental.
           | 
           | This whole modern neural network saga started around 2011.
           | Every step was incremental since then. Just because most
           | people didn't hear about these just in 2022, doesn't mean
           | that large LLMs were suddenly here from nothing. They still
           | need to improve for example to not make the code quality
           | plummets immediately when programmers start to use it. It
           | was, and will be an incremental process.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | We can make some educated guesses and extrapolate some trends.
         | But you are right that most of the people currently claiming to
         | know what's going to happen in 3 years were fast asleep when
         | chat gpt launched, which is almost 3 years ago. And I include
         | myself in that group. Most in the industry did not see that
         | coming. Not even a little bit.
         | 
         | At this point we have half the industry being overly
         | pessimistic and the other half being unreasonably optimistic.
         | The median truth would be in the middle. But I don't think
         | that's a very sound position to take either.
         | 
         | The reason is that I think we're actually dealing with a severe
         | imagination deficit in society. That always happens around big
         | technological changes. And this definitely looks and feels like
         | such a thing. Ten years from now it might all seem obvious in
         | retrospect. But right now we have the optimist camp predicting
         | what boils down to the automotive equivalent of "faster horses"
         | (AGI, I robot, self driving cars, and all the rest). It's going
         | to be this wonderful utopia where no-one works and everything
         | runs by itself. I'm not a big believer in that and I don't
         | think that's how economies work.
         | 
         | And we have a bunch of pessimists predicting that it's all
         | going to end in tears. Dystopia, everybody is going to be
         | unemployed, and a lot of other Luddite nonsense.
         | 
         | The optimists basically lack imagination so they just reach for
         | what science fiction told them is going to happen (i.e. rely on
         | other people's science fiction). And then the pessimists
         | basically are stuck imagining the worst always happens and
         | failing to imagine that there might be things that actually do
         | work.
         | 
         | It's fairly easy to predict/bet that both sides are probably
         | imagining things wrong. Just like people did three years ago.
         | Including myself here. So, not making a prediction here. But,
         | kind of curious to see how the next few years will unfold. Lots
         | of amazing stuff in the past three. I'll have some more of that
         | please.
        
           | nativeit wrote:
           | I'm not sure it was so much folks "not seeing it coming" with
           | ChatGPT, only that anyone with anything beyond surface-level
           | understanding of ML workloads and data science wouldn't have
           | thought to attempt to package such an immense, expensive, and
           | potentially powerful product as a "chat bot", and certainly
           | nobody would have thought it would be a good idea to then
           | heavily market it as some sci-fi notion of "artificial
           | intelligence", and proceed to gaslight the entire planet with
           | what it might eventually be capable of. Only because, with
           | the exception of Sam Altman, such a person would have been
           | laughed out of a career. The only real surprise with LLMs
           | seems to be that unscrupulous people have managed to raise so
           | much goddamn money lying about its potential, that it's got a
           | real chance of crashing the global economy once everyone
           | realizes it's never _actually_ gonna replace any meaningful
           | jobs.
        
         | j45 wrote:
         | It's understandable how it feels this way.
         | 
         | The most important thing to do is play and build small things
         | with all of them as they take turns being in the lead or
         | running the fastest sideways in this horse race.
         | 
         | What's new to someone might be old to most etc. What's critical
         | to the individual is knowing what's new to them vs what they
         | know is out there.
         | 
         | I am not sure after 2 years of this if there will be a single
         | clearcut winner, as much as they will all contribute best
         | practices to something more emergent.
         | 
         | Webapps when they first began also didn't have much structure,
         | frameworks, etc, and it evolved from just building a lot, and
         | trying to build better.
        
         | mattmanser wrote:
         | Just to echo another comment, I remember seeing the iPhone for
         | the first time (2 maybe?). It was amazing. Mind blowingly good.
         | It was revolutionary in every sense of the word. I'd heard the
         | hype but if anything it undersold the reality.
         | 
         | You saw this thing and knew the future had changed.
         | 
         | It's very easy to forget Android just shamelessly ripped it off
         | wholesale. The early version of Android looked nothing like the
         | complete iPhone clone they ended up with.
         | 
         | And I have an android phone right now. But it only exists
         | because of the revolutionary iPhone.
         | 
         | Credit where credit's due.
         | 
         | And right now AI feels like just before the iPhone. Like then
         | we had touch screens, and we had new battery tech and we had
         | mini-apps on the internet. And we had iPods showing small form
         | factor MP3 players. But they didn't work together coherently.
         | 
         | And then the iPhone came along.
         | 
         | Like we're waiting for the iPhone of AI, to bring the tech
         | together to an actually usable state.
        
           | disqard wrote:
           | I half-suspect the Rabbit M1 and the Humane AI Pin were onto
           | something that could've been the "iPhone of AI", but because
           | they botched it so completely, no one will want to invest
           | (time, money, effort, resources) into exploring that path for
           | several years.
        
       | ElijahLynn wrote:
       | One could have argued the same for Stack Overflow being the drug
       | and Google the dealer too...
        
       | m_busel wrote:
       | super interesting breakdown. that being said, it's unclear to me
       | if this is actually a problem outside of code gen. the labs have
       | zeroed in on this use case since it's so obviously valuable but
       | they're not going to launching products in every area.
       | 
       | also, yes, the labs control the supply but also there are many
       | labs so there's lots of competition. they can't, for example,
       | just jack up the prices on the dealers (apps) like a monopoly
       | could. so again, not sure if being a dealer is actually bad here.
        
       | fffernan wrote:
       | Don't worry they will offer you Rivermind Plus soon to solve all
       | the problems
        
       | theZilber wrote:
       | The article's headline is great and it delivers the message
       | clearly. But the whole premise to support the message is very
       | assumptive - "there is no moat". There is a lot moat in cursor,
       | bolt, lovable. The same way there is moat in the chat apps of
       | openai, anthropic, gemini...
       | 
       | They say there is no moat, but in fact, a feature in anthropic
       | takes a good few months up to a year to appear on openai chatapp,
       | and the same is true vice versa.
       | 
       | You could say some of those issues are solvable by allocating
       | more money, and resources, which might be true, and it could be
       | true that it would be beneficial for openai to develop their own
       | cursor platform in the future, to get better margins. But in
       | reality, who knows when that future would come? Maybe by then
       | cursor will have much more moat and entering the market would be
       | much more difficult. Maybe openai will continue developing their
       | core product and entering other domains will not be worth the
       | effort.
       | 
       | Currently, LLMs as a product have not been solved. All companies
       | operate at a lose in order to rise the top, and we still don't
       | know how it will be monetized in the future. But as it stands -
       | there is already moat, moat in infrastructure - even though a few
       | years ago they said that llms have no moat, now there is already
       | a strong set of features and "agents" that deliver us the deep
       | reasoning, online searching, and multimodal experience.
       | 
       | So, there is moat. But moat can accumulate over time. For the
       | article to be true - it should prove the the current moat is low,
       | and it can not accumulate.
        
       | p0w3n3d wrote:
       | Imagine you're studying, for example math, and you have to learn
       | calculus, and you're living in a dormitory with a colleague,
       | who's great at integration calculus, and every time you get
       | another integration function puzzle to solve, this guy (or gal)
       | pops up and says "it's 2*e^2/x+C dx", "it's e^2+C dx", "it's
       | sin(x)/cos(x)+C dx" after 5 milliseconds, even before you fully
       | comprehend the function...
       | 
       | I have a question for you                 will you be able to
       | pass the exam at the midterm?
        
         | fph wrote:
         | Do you also oppose calculators for the same reason?
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | That's a silly argument, because arithmetic is so simple
           | people pick it up in spite of their use of calculators. Hell,
           | people learn simple arithmetic even if they've never had any
           | schooling (they can tell you that 5 apples and 3 apples makes
           | 8 apples, things like this). And arithmetic with big numbers
           | is so tedious regardless of how well you know it that it's
           | better to just use a calculator, and people have always done
           | this (before digital calculators you had an abacus,
           | multiplication tables, and many other similar instruments).
           | 
           | Calculus or programming or advanced algebra etc are nowhere
           | near the same difficulty, and the same rules don't apply.
        
           | stetrain wrote:
           | If calculators had a camera on the back that let you take a
           | photo of a word problem on your homework or exam and then
           | provided a complete answer including steps and "work shown" I
           | expect that would have a detrimental effect on students'
           | learning of the subject matter and ability to reproduce it
           | without the calculator.
        
         | dizlexic wrote:
         | I'm a high school dropout dude...
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | They can already do this just by downloading Mathematica.
         | 
         | Solving integrals is the original selling point of Mathematica:
         | https://www.wolfram.com/mathematica/scrapbook/1988/03/04/198...
         | 
         | And yes, I memorized a bunch of integrals for my calculus class
         | and then promptly forgot them all after the final exam. It's
         | not worth it to remember how to do integrals other than simple
         | cases like polynomials or sin/cos on their own.
        
       | darqis wrote:
       | for me, I wasted the whole day fighting LLMs to in the end write
       | a single test function for authz function...
       | 
       | LLMs are a huge waste of time
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | Don't have a team with one AI service on it ..... have a team
       | with three.
       | 
       | You're crazy to only use one AI service if you're doing serious
       | development.
       | 
       | Use the 3 big ones all at the same time.
       | 
       | Ask them all to solve the same problem. Ask them all to evaluate
       | each others solutions. Do this over and over in multiple
       | iterations.
       | 
       | Each model is good at different things.
       | 
       | When you're not getting a great result with this one, switch to
       | another.
       | 
       | Using one AI is crazy when three together are more powerful.
        
       | ripped_britches wrote:
       | I can't read things written in pure hyperbole like this.
       | 
       | "Netflix isn't a real company, they are nothing more than shills
       | for camera-workers who film all of the content upstream."
       | 
       | Such a lame take. I'd be more interested if someone actually took
       | a minute to think about the competitive landscape more seriously
       | than this.
        
         | HeyImAlex wrote:
         | Hasn't the proliferation of streaming services shown that the
         | content is the "drug"? To remain competitive, they had to start
         | producing themselves.
        
       | aleyan wrote:
       | The OP postulates two paths for the future: "1: LLM Labs go
       | direct" and "2: LLMs become commodities, wrappers win". I just
       | happened to have published a blogpost on llm code assistants used
       | by GitHub repos[0][1]. Claude Code has just overtaken Cursor as
       | the most popular. Gemini CLI and OpenAI Codex also has a steeper
       | growth curve than Cursor. So on just this question, it looks like
       | the drugs are beating the dealers.
       | 
       | [0] https://aleyan.com/blog/2025-llm-assistant-census/ [1]
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44863713
        
       | jonplackett wrote:
       | The crazy thing is that yes Cursor are losing money reselling
       | ChatGPT / Claude - but Claude and OpenAI are ALSO losing money!
        
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