[HN Gopher] Mexico to US livestock trade halted due to screwworm...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Mexico to US livestock trade halted due to screwworm spread
        
       Author : burnt-resistor
       Score  : 237 points
       Date   : 2025-08-09 14:30 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.usda.gov)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.usda.gov)
        
       | Glyptodon wrote:
       | One more thing where we're going back in time. Sure seems like a
       | new decline and fall is coming bit by bit.
        
       | neom wrote:
       | I'd never head of screwworm before, turns out it's not a worm,
       | this page is pretty decent: https://cr.usembassy.gov/sections-
       | offices/aphis/screwworm-pr...
       | 
       | "A screwworm infestation is caused by larvae of the fly
       | Cochliomyia hominivorax. These larvae can infest wounds of any
       | warm-blooded animal, including human beings. The screwworm fly is
       | about twice the size of a regular house fly and can be
       | distinguished by its greenish-blue color and its large reddish-
       | orange eyes.
       | 
       | Infestations can occur in any open wound, including cuts,
       | castration wounds, navels of newborn animals, and tick bites. The
       | wounds often contain a dark, foul-smelling discharge. Screwworm
       | larvae distinguish themselves from other species by feeding only
       | on the living flesh, never dead tissue. Once a wound is infested,
       | the screwworm can eventually kill the animal or human, literally
       | eating it alive." - Sounds great.
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | > Screwworm larvae distinguish themselves from other species by
         | feeding only on the living flesh, never dead tissue.
         | 
         | What assholes. :(
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | Yeah the switch on these guys was definitely flipped to
           | 'evil'
        
         | mc32 wrote:
         | The key to managing this pest [edit: after it breaches the
         | isthmus program] is through active monitoring, treating
         | infested wounds as well as conducting castration and dehorning
         | in less active months. It's not like cattle herds didn't exist
         | prior to the 1950s.
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | That's in fact not how screwworms are managed; the "border"
           | of screwworm prevalence was managed by spreading sterilized
           | male screwworms.
        
             | mc32 wrote:
             | That's how we manage them now. I mean before we had that
             | program, we dealt with the pest/infestation that way and we
             | can in the future too if need be to combat what's getting
             | through. Obviously neutralizing them down in the isthmus is
             | preferred but we're seeing them come up from Mexico now. So
             | if you have a minor infestation that's how you treat it to
             | address whatever gets missed by the sterilization program.
             | 
             | It doesn't render the cattle or meat from the cattle
             | useless. Obviously if affected cattle are untreated they
             | will succumb to the pest.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | The whole reason this is newsworthy is that the system we
               | had prior to eradication was not good.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | Yes, obviously; but it's not the end of the cattle
               | industry as some make it out to be.
               | 
               | To clarify: it was never eradicated. It's been actively
               | managed and kept at bay. Now it's punching through some
               | holes.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Because we stopped doing the thing that works. Your
               | earlier point, that we can just as easily return to herd
               | management strategies, was wrong.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | What did we stop doing? The sterilization program is
               | ongoing.
               | 
               | There are always periodic outbreaks in Central America
               | and Mexico. The current one started in 2023.
               | 
               | One common vector is illegal cattle trafficking.
        
       | colechristensen wrote:
       | Here's a video describing the system that fell apart which had
       | been working for a long time to keep these flies out of north
       | america
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Olj8arvfYj4
        
       | neutered_knot wrote:
       | A story from 2020 about how effective the US funded anti-
       | screwworm program used to be.
       | 
       | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/flesh-ea...
       | 
       | Archive link: https://archive.ph/3sD9d
        
         | ajmurmann wrote:
         | Why is it "used to be"? I've heard about the program before and
         | thought it was incredible. What happened to it?
         | 
         | Edit: Brief research tells me the screwworms broke though to
         | Mexico in November 2024 after cases started increasing north of
         | the Darian Gap throughout 2023
         | (https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/new-world-
         | scr...). It does seem like the funding now is happening through
         | USDA rather than USAID (https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-
         | poultry-disease/cattle/...) and there likely was a funding gap.
         | As much as I like to blame the current administration for
         | defunding USAID the breakthrough happened earlier.
        
           | cogman10 wrote:
           | DOGE. It was ran by USAID.
        
             | VladVladikoff wrote:
             | It was failing long before this. The border used to be down
             | by Panama.
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | The first sign of spread past panama was seen in Nov
               | 2024. Parasites can spread fast and the US/Mexico needed
               | to react fast to the fact that it spread past panama.
               | 
               | In a critical time when monitoring and action were
               | desperately needed, we eliminated the agency that'd do
               | that.
        
               | literalAardvark wrote:
               | It wasn't a critical time, it was late.
               | 
               | If there had been any political will for this things
               | would have been set in motion since 2023, likely even
               | before that when the reports from the scientists working
               | on control started pouring in.
               | 
               | Blaming a few weeks of funding lapse one year into an
               | outbreak in a control project that's been running for
               | decades is absurd.
               | 
               | From a link in this thread: However, since 2023, cases
               | have been increasing in number and spreading north from
               | Panama to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala,
               | Belize, and Mexico.
        
               | asacrowflies wrote:
               | Late is still a critical time...perhaps more critical.
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | Fair point.
               | 
               | The cost to fight this back will definitely exponentially
               | increase.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Ok, but where did you get that Nov '24 date from? You
               | just agreed with a comment that falsified that claim.
        
               | cogman10 wrote:
               | An article I read mentioned that Nov '24 is when the
               | flies were spotted in Mexico. I incorrectly assumed that
               | meant that is when they breached the panama boarder.
               | 
               | So I agree with the commenter that falsified my claim
               | because they are correct, the date of breach was earlier
               | and the time to react was then.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Gotcha. Thanks! I was just curious.
        
               | smallmancontrov wrote:
               | The border didn't magically eradicate the flies on one
               | side. Pushing the border down to the Darien Gap took
               | work, but we did it before and can do it again. The real
               | problem is the gleeful destruction of government capacity
               | to do things like this.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | Yes, that's true, but the point the parent commenter was
               | making is that recent previous administrations also
               | didn't take this problem seriously.
        
               | smallmancontrov wrote:
               | Who was president in 2020 again?
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | You get that there was a president between 2020 and now,
               | right? Nobody is sticking up for Trump; they're just
               | saying, this particular bad thing isn't a DOGE outcome.
        
               | chris_wot wrote:
               | If this particular bad thing was bad before DOGE, then
               | it's far worse under DOGE. It's a particularly ridiculous
               | argument.
        
               | bbarnett wrote:
               | Knowing how and why a thing happened, is far more
               | important than political grandstanding.
               | 
               | The doge cuts may affect the _future_ of this program,
               | but have _absolutely positively nothing_ to do with the
               | situation now. Nothing. Not a thing.
               | 
               | It is fine to say doge will make this neglect worse, but
               | the neglect happened for a decade.
               | 
               | And that's important. That's vital to understanding why,
               | and how it happened.
               | 
               | And that is absolutely not a ridiculous concept.
        
               | tptacek wrote:
               | I don't know about "not a thing"; have to be careful
               | about overcorrecting the other direction. The thing I'm
               | wary about is just shutting down discussion of
               | complicated things as soon as Trump appears. The
               | screwworm situation is interesting!
        
               | stretchwithme wrote:
               | I see you are bias-free.
        
               | rdl wrote:
               | And the Panama border (Darien Gap, specifically) used to
               | be a stronger natural barrier; humans have been crossing
               | it for years, are starting to graze cows within the
               | exclusion zone, etc.
        
           | jfengel wrote:
           | Yeah, it got cut back in March.
           | 
           | https://kbhbradio.com/usda-cuts-budget-staff-for-animal-
           | dise...
           | 
           | Part of it was restored a couple of months later.
        
             | stretchwithme wrote:
             | The flies didn't JUST start moving north this year.
        
               | jiggawatts wrote:
               | Which makes cutting funding for the program _that_ much
               | stupider, no?
        
           | throwup238 wrote:
           | Funding was recently cut but this infestation has been
           | building for years. The key failure that caused this current
           | outbreak was during COVID. The lockdowns shut down both the
           | release flights by the US and the mosquito breeding
           | facilities in Latina America, grinding the whole pest control
           | program to a halt.
        
             | Noumenon72 wrote:
             | Someone must have decided they weren't "essential". Big
             | mistake.
        
               | andsoitis wrote:
               | Not essential. We can eat less beef. Better for health,
               | the environment.
        
               | kristjansson wrote:
               | And we should encourage that by leveraging the response
               | to a natural disaster to advance your particular policy
               | goals?
        
               | ajmurmann wrote:
               | Doesn't this impact wildlife as well? Apparently the
               | Florida Key Deer was threatened by this a decade ago:
               | https://www.avma.org/javma-news/2017-01-15/screwworm-
               | infesta...
        
               | Numerlor wrote:
               | Screwworm also infects wildlife and occasionally humans,
               | it's really not something you want to have in the area if
               | you can help it
        
               | 20after4 wrote:
               | It sounds like it's more than occasionally infecting
               | humans: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-
               | health/science-and-diseas...
        
               | raverbashing wrote:
               | Funny, you don't seem to have beef with the worm eating
               | beef
               | 
               | But it can and does infect humans and other animals
        
               | AlecSchueler wrote:
               | They didn't say they had beef with anyone eating beef.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | Screwworms will eat people too, if allowed to. You really
               | don't want them in your area.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | Already happening. Beef is rapidly becomming
               | unaffordable. A steak at the supermarket is >$20. Can't
               | imagine what they cost at a restaurant. I've switched to
               | mostly turkey, chicken, and pork.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | That's due to issues around monopolization in the Dairy
               | and Cattle industry in the US [1].
               | 
               | 70% of all processors in the dairy and cattle industry
               | are now owned by 3 companies. Processors don't own cattle
               | - they just process raw material like dairy and meat into
               | cheese and pasteurized milk and handle the entire supply
               | chain. But because they control the supply chain,
               | distribution, and even the feed [0] used they can set
               | rates and vendors used by farmers.
               | 
               | I posted an article about this earlier on HN, but it
               | seems HNers like to talk about antitrust for search
               | engines and not dairy and beef production.
               | 
               | Antitrust for me, oligopolic market forces for thee.
               | 
               | [0] - https://www.landolakesinc.com/what-we-do/animal-
               | nutrition/
               | 
               | [1] - https://www.thebullvine.com/news/will-your-dairy-
               | farm-surviv...
               | 
               | ___________
               | 
               | To u/andrew_lettuce below:
               | 
               | Canada has the exact same issue of processor
               | consolidation and oligopoly in agriculture as the US
               | [0][1][2]
               | 
               | Arguably, it's worse than the US because this process
               | started in the 1990s in Canada [3] versus the 2010s in
               | the US.
               | 
               | [0] - https://ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com/terrence-
               | galarneau/blog/4...
               | 
               | [1] - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7350140/
               | 
               | [2] -
               | https://financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/why-
               | only-t...
               | 
               | [3] - https://www.eap.mcgill.ca/MagRack/RH/RH_E_97_05.htm
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | Is this supported by the data? During the pandemic people
               | were also blaming "monopolization" or "consolidation" for
               | the rise in grocery prices, but in reality the margins of
               | publicly traded supermarket companies went up by a
               | percentage point or two.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | Yep. To quote The Bullvine [0] (Axios for the cattle and
               | dairy industry):
               | 
               | "Here's another force reshaping the industry that has
               | nothing to do with immigration: processor consolidation.
               | According to industry analysis, just three major
               | cooperatives--Dairy Farmers of America, Land O'Lakes, and
               | California Dairies--now handle over 80% of the nation's
               | milk marketing.
               | 
               | These processors need massive, consistent volumes. New
               | processing plants require millions of pounds of milk per
               | day to operate efficiently. From a logistical standpoint,
               | it's far more efficient to contract with a dozen
               | 5,000-cow dairies than 500 smaller operations.
               | 
               | I was at a dairy conference in Wisconsin last year where
               | a DFA representative candidly admitted: "We're building
               | plants that need 4-5 million pounds per day. We can't
               | deal with 200 small farms--we need 10 large ones."
               | 
               | This "processor pull" creates powerful incentives for
               | farm-level consolidation. I've seen it happen firsthand
               | in regions where a new mega-processing plant opens--
               | suddenly, there's pressure on every farm in the area to
               | either scale up or get squeezed out"
               | 
               | Also [1]
               | 
               | -----------
               | 
               | The fact that a country like India can support 228 milk
               | cooperatives each generating around $500M-2B in revenue
               | and outcompete American dairy+cattle in production and
               | even reducing environmental impact with marginal
               | subsidizes [2] means distribution+processing
               | consolidation and it's side effects (cattle monoculture,
               | non-competitive prices given to farmers, dairy processers
               | NOW becoming animal feed manufacturers) are a good
               | example of market failures due to oligopolic control.
               | 
               | No one at the WI and MI state Dem level is chatting about
               | this based on some of my own meeting with them recently.
               | This is the kind of swing vote topic that can flip all 3
               | branches of government in 26 and 28.
               | 
               | If someone like me who has been somewhat hesitant about
               | Lina Khan until after getting deep into the dairy
               | industry recently, I think HNers should recognize the
               | opportunity this provides. 84% of Americans consume dairy
               | and dairy products [3] - this is an easy win if some
               | sympathy was provided.
               | 
               | Yet, the comments I'm seeing here on HN (and with those
               | who I chatted with at the state level Dems) are
               | reminiscent to those who blamed autoworkers and
               | coalworkers for not learning to code back in 2014.
               | 
               | [0] - https://www.thebullvine.com/dairy-industry/dairys-
               | great-cons...
               | 
               | [1] - https://www.thebullvine.com/news/will-your-dairy-
               | farm-surviv...
               | 
               | [2] - https://www.thebullvine.com/dairy-industry/from-
               | extinction-t...
               | 
               | [3] -
               | https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-
               | insights...
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | Market failures due to oligarchic control is the natural
               | end state of capitalism. Everything is going as intended,
               | the point of the system is to produce oligarchs, not
               | efficient markets.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | Not necessarily.
               | 
               | It is mainstream economic and political opinion to
               | regulate in some manner to reduce market consolidation
               | since the 1940s with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | I think necessarily. I don't think it's possible to
               | devise a capitalist system that doesn't devolve into
               | oligarchic control. Markets can't be regulated like the
               | theory wants, because capitalists just use their wealth
               | to take over the politicians. They are able to do this
               | because they control so much wealth. To prevent this
               | hack, you'd have to take control of capital away from the
               | capitalists, thus defeating the core idea of capitalism.
        
               | chrisweekly wrote:
               | > "capital away from the capitalists"
               | 
               | or find other ways to reduce the influence of money on
               | public elections -- see eg Prof. Lessig (of "Creative
               | Commons" fame) and his writings on "Fix Congress First"
               | which led to Rootstrikers.org
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | By "data" I was referring to data to support the claim
               | that consolidation led to increase in prices (eg. margin
               | expansion), not that consolidation was happening at all.
               | It's the same with supermarkets. There's no doubt that
               | consolidation was happening, and there's even evidence
               | that it led to higher prices, but the absolute effect on
               | grocery bills seems to be marginal.
        
               | rcpt wrote:
               | Lina Khan was in power for years and didn't do anything
               | about this.
               | 
               | Closest thing was a case where she blocked Sanderson
               | Farms from being acquired but that was poultry.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | She was starting to concentrate on the Ag consolidation
               | [0] but my interpretation is she targeted tech first due
               | to the industry's somewhat weaker political position in
               | both admins.
               | 
               | She also didn't touch Comcast - and they are the
               | kingmakers in PA and DE.
               | 
               | [0] - https://www.law.nyu.edu/news/katzmann-lecture-lina-
               | khan-talk...
        
               | jncfhnb wrote:
               | Profit margin increasing by a percentage point on a low
               | margin business is potentially significant
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | It's certainly meaningful for the company involved, but a
               | 1% increase in grocer margins means a $100 grocery bill
               | becomes $101. It's at best an incomplete explanation for
               | the ~20% price increase on grocery prices between 2021
               | and 2023.
        
               | andrew_lettuce wrote:
               | This isn't true in Canada and we're seeing as big of
               | price increases for beef, greater than the US for ground
               | beef. This is a supply issue while demand has increased.
               | Drought and costs have also impacted herd size
        
               | HillRat wrote:
               | Packer and ag consolidation is a huge problem, but the
               | underlying issue here is climate change and long-lasting
               | droughts; some of the issues with herd size -- the
               | smallest since about 1950 -- come from COVID hangover
               | when cows weren't getting processed and price-per-head
               | plummeted, but the immediate problem is that ranchers
               | can't support large herds due to lack of rain and cost of
               | feed. We're looking at long-term cost trends that are
               | unlikely to reverse or even be significantly ameliorated
               | anytime soon.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | > the immediate problem is that ranchers can't support
               | large herds due to lack of rain and cost of feed
               | 
               | Ranchers that can support large herds (2,000+) are those
               | who earn a net profit [0] and are consolidating because
               | processors do not want to support small farms.
               | 
               | While environmental factors do play a role, saying it's
               | the primary reason is greenwashing of the real
               | oligopolies tendencies arising in American Ag industry.
               | 
               | [0] - https://www.thebullvine.com/news/will-your-dairy-
               | farm-surviv...
        
               | HDThoreaun wrote:
               | Im still getting outer skirt for $8 a pound at my
               | grocery. Seems pretty affordable to me
        
               | genghisjahn wrote:
               | I get great cuts of steak for less than $10 all the time.
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | At a supermarket? Or local butcher/processor?
        
               | genghisjahn wrote:
               | Weavers way coop in mt airy Philadelphia.
        
               | throwup238 wrote:
               | Maybe for a USDA Prime ribeye or tenderloin at Bristol
               | Farms or something.
               | 
               | If you go to an ethnic store like Arabic halaal markets,
               | ribeye steaks can be had for less than $10 a pound (but
               | they're ungraded). In one of the highest CoL areas in
               | Southern California. Costco USDA Prime ribeyes are
               | $20/pound and ribeye rounds are $25/pound.
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | > Better for health, the environment.
               | 
               | India has an equally large cattle industry that
               | outproduces American dairy and cattle, yet their industry
               | has a fraction of the carbon and methane impact as
               | American dairy and cattle rearing [0] because the feed
               | used in Indian industry is crop residue instead of
               | industrialized meat+grain mixtures.
               | 
               | American Ag is hyperconsolidated into 3 processors [1]
               | which makes it difficult for innovations to develop,
               | whereas an equally large country like India has 228 local
               | run dairy cooperatives and multiple private sector
               | players each generating around $500M-2B in revenue.
               | 
               | Yet, the comments I'm seeing here on HN (and with those
               | who I chatted with at the state level Dems) are
               | reminiscent to those who blamed autoworkers and
               | coalworkers for not learning to code back in 2014.
               | 
               | If someone like me who has been somewhat hesitant about
               | Lina Khan until after getting deep into the dairy
               | industry recently, I think HNers should recognize the
               | value this train of thought can have in 2026 and 2028.
               | 
               | 84% of Americans consume dairy or dairy alternative
               | (still synthesized using dairy) products [2] - don't make
               | this yet another culture war topic
               | 
               | [0] - https://www.thebullvine.com/dairy-industry/from-
               | extinction-t...
               | 
               | [1] - https://www.thebullvine.com/news/will-your-dairy-
               | farm-surviv...
               | 
               | [2] -
               | https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-
               | insights...
        
               | gruez wrote:
               | >India has an equally large cattle industry that
               | outproduces American dairy and cattle
               | 
               | That's a tad misleading. The statistics I could find only
               | says that India outproduces the US in dairy, not beef.
               | Rounding
               | 
               | >yet their industry has a fraction of the carbon and
               | methane impact as American dairy and cattle rearing [0]
               | 
               | I did a cursory search in your source for "carbon" and
               | "methane" and couldn't find anything to back this claim,
               | only vague claims about how India does "Regenerative
               | farming" and is therefore "low methane".
               | 
               | >because the feed used in Indian industry is crop residue
               | instead of industrialized meat+grain mixtures.
               | 
               | That's not scalable and only works because the country is
               | poor and beef/dairy consumption isn't high. There's no
               | way you can supply American level demand for beef/dairy
               | by only using crop residue.
               | 
               | >American Ag is hyperconsolidated into 3 processors which
               | makes it difficult for innovations to develop, whereas an
               | equally large country like India has 26 state run dairy
               | cooperatives and multiple private sector players.
               | 
               | You can easily tell an opposite story about how
               | consolidate companies have bigger budgets for R&D and
               | capital projects, as opposed to 26 cooperatives each
               | trying to implement some sort of strategy.
        
               | mahirsaid wrote:
               | Regardless, it's terrible to have around you. Your dog
               | will have it too if let be. they do need to be controlled
               | if it gets out of hand. Better now than when its a bigger
               | problem.
        
               | zahlman wrote:
               | Screwworms will also infect humans, with horrific and
               | potentially fatal consequences.
        
               | FpUser wrote:
               | >"Not essential. We can eat less beef. Better for health,
               | the environment."
               | 
               | We can also live in a cave, better for the environment.
        
               | f1shy wrote:
               | Or just dissapear (which btw, no joking, is what some
               | people propose)
        
               | spamizbad wrote:
               | I guess nature is "finding a way" after all...
        
               | artursapek wrote:
               | 125lb take
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | While I am a vegetarian and thus am an existence proof,
               | there's multiple different ways in which something can be
               | "essential".
               | 
               | Anyone going "let's stop a thing today which will messes
               | with a non-trivial fraction of our food production in a
               | few years' time, without preparing either that food
               | sector nor the dietary choices of the consumers before
               | that happens" is definitely making a high-risk strategic
               | choice.
        
               | crawsome wrote:
               | Twice
        
             | delfinom wrote:
             | The funding was never cut. That was misinfo spread by
             | morons because there was a typical Trump dispute of "mexico
             | will pay for it". But the reality was that was in talks of
             | a Mexico specific coverage program. The Panama program was
             | never touched and is run by a third party agency with
             | stakes holders consisting of the USDA and Panama
             | government.
             | 
             | But yes the current outbreak built up since COVID.
        
               | fc417fc802 wrote:
               | So funding was never cut, but actually some subset did
               | experience cuts? Which is it?
               | 
               | We're taking about Mexico to US trade here so the Mexico
               | specific subprogram seems directly relevant.
        
               | throwaway5752 wrote:
               | Question, are they morons? Is your disagreement with them
               | really that simple? Was it necessary to call them that? I
               | don't like posting this comment, because it will be
               | distracting and tone policing. I was just going to
               | downvote and flag your comment and move on, but I think
               | you offered some valuable information about the policy
               | and I'd like to hear more without the divisive parts that
               | add less value.
        
             | timr wrote:
             | From the other link on the front page about this subject
             | [1]:
             | 
             | > Illegal cattle smuggling, long considered one of the most
             | efficient money-laundering routes for the drug cartels
             | which terrorised San Pedro Sula, is regarded as the main
             | reason for the accelerating advance. Up to 800,000 cattle a
             | year are illicitly raised in nature reserves, such as the
             | UNESCO-protected Rio Platano Biosphere in Honduras, and
             | then smuggled by boat and truck up to Mexico. The flies, of
             | course, travel with the livestock, embedded in cattle
             | hides, accelerating their advance.
             | 
             | > "Everything indicates that illegal cattle routes from
             | Central America are the arteries through which the screw
             | worm is circulating again toward Mexico," wrote Jeremy
             | Radachowsky, director for Mesoamerican and the Western
             | Caribbean at the Wildlife Conservation Society, in a recent
             | paper.
             | 
             | So for those who keep trying to make the connection, it has
             | little, if anything, to do with US politics. Meanwhile, I
             | had no idea that _cattle smuggling_ was a money-laundering
             | route for drug cartels. TIL!
             | 
             | [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-
             | diseas...
        
               | fc417fc802 wrote:
               | > So for those who keep trying to make the connection, it
               | has little, if anything, to do with US politics.
               | 
               | I follow your intended meaning (USAID & etc cuts). But
               | taken literally it's US policies and propaganda that
               | enable the drug cartels. Our dysfunctions are still
               | ultimately the root of the problem.
        
               | 0xDEAFBEAD wrote:
               | The world is complex and interdependent. The US, being a
               | powerful and influential country, has direct or indirect
               | involvement in pretty much everything. That doesn't mean
               | we are to blame for everything.
        
               | fc417fc802 wrote:
               | I agree. We certainly aren't at fault for the existence
               | of organized crime _in general_. However our aggressively
               | exported drug policy is very obviously the root that
               | props up the Mexican and South American drug cartels
               | (among others). There 's decades of academic literature
               | and economic analysis on this point.
               | 
               | When a parasite is spreading due to a large scale money
               | laundering tactic by a large scale criminal enterprise
               | whose scale is only enabled by our policy I class that as
               | yet another own goal of the war on drugs.
               | 
               | These downstream effects are somewhat non obvious so I
               | think it's worthwhile to point them out when they come
               | up.
        
               | timr wrote:
               | OK, so let me be even more explicit: for those who
               | continue to want to connect this to _recent changes in
               | the US political system_ , the relationship is tenuous,
               | at best.
        
           | zahlman wrote:
           | > Brief research tells me the screwworms broke though to
           | Mexico in November 2024 after cases started increasing north
           | of the Darian Gap throughout 2023
           | 
           | Elsewhere in the thread people have posted explainer videos
           | (of how the program works) from 2024 that seem entirely
           | unaware of any such breach.
        
           | starkparker wrote:
           | Smuggling's also a contributing factor, at least in Honduras:
           | https://www.drovers.com/news/industry/surprising-link-
           | betwee...
        
           | GeekyBear wrote:
           | > Why is it "used to be"?
           | 
           | > Decades ago, screwworms were endemic throughout Central
           | America and the southern US. However, governments across the
           | regions used intensive, coordinated control efforts to push
           | the flies southward. Screwworms were eliminated from the US
           | around 1966, and were pushed downward through Mexico in the
           | 1970s and 1980s. They were eventually declared eliminated
           | from Panama in 2006, with the population held at bay by a
           | biological barrier at the Darien Gap, at the border of Panama
           | and Colombia.
           | 
           | However, in 2022, the barrier was breached, and the flies
           | began advancing northward, primarily through unmonitored
           | livestock movements. The latest surveillance suggests the
           | flies are now about 370 miles south of Texas.
           | 
           | https://arstechnica.com/health/2025/08/texas-prepares-for-
           | wa...
        
             | stretchwithme wrote:
             | Considering the widths of Panama and Mexico, holding them
             | south of Panama had to be much cheaper.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | Great (gross) video from the Department of Energy (1960) on how
         | the screwworm was defeated: https://youtu.be/QFoOnS6CWSI
        
       | mistyvales wrote:
       | Didn't they pull funding for mitigation programs regarding this?
       | Or was that rescinded?
        
         | ethan_smith wrote:
         | Yes, the USDA-APHIS Screwworm Barrier Maintenance Program had
         | its funding reduced by 30% in the 2024 budget, which
         | significantly impacted sterile fly production capacity at the
         | Panama facility.
        
           | Panoramix wrote:
           | citation?
           | 
           | USDA approved an emergency funding of 165 million in 2024 for
           | this issue
           | 
           | https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-
           | ap...
        
             | sejje wrote:
             | If he says the budget was reduced, isn't the citation
             | already made?
             | 
             | Government budgets are usually public. Do you want a
             | secondary source, like a news article?
        
             | fc417fc802 wrote:
             | The claims aren't exclusive.
        
       | drhodes wrote:
       | A recent, relevant video from Kurzgesagt: How Nuclear Flies
       | Protect You from Flesh-Eating Parasites
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxq60I5RSW8
        
         | raaron773 wrote:
         | I was wondering where i heard the term screwworm before!
        
       | cogman10 wrote:
       | USAID was in charge of the program which monitored screwworm
       | spread in central and south america. The way you combat screwworm
       | is by releasing sterile male flies in screwworm outbreak areas.
        
         | LMYahooTFY wrote:
         | Do you have a source? Because this appears to be false. I can't
         | find anything indicating it was funded by USAID.
         | 
         | Everything I'm reading says it has been funded by USDA, and in
         | fact funding has been significantly increased during 2025.
        
           | cogman10 wrote:
           | https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/22636-bird-flu-
           | screwworm...
           | 
           | USDA manages the production of the sterile flies. USAID was a
           | major funding source for the UN Food and Agriculture
           | Organization which did the monitoring.
        
             | nnutter wrote:
             | I appreciate you citing the USAID funding but you seem to
             | be trying to prove a point rather than get to the truth.
             | Screwworm detection and prevention was not halted because
             | of the USAID shutdown, USDA is actively working on it, one
             | can see this by going to usda.gov and searching for
             | "screwworm". I really appreciate ajmurmann's edit which
             | acknowledges this.
        
               | bryant wrote:
               | https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/22636-bird-flu-
               | screwworm...
               | 
               | > Among the GHS projects killed were some dedicated to
               | *monitoring and containing avian flu and New World
               | Screwworm in Central America, monitoring* avian flu
               | outbreaks in Asia and improving the detection of new
               | strains, and efforts to combat swine fever, according to
               | a person familiar with the situation granted anonymity to
               | speak frankly.
               | 
               | you might not have intended to mislead, but the cited
               | source indicates that at least some were defined and thus
               | halted, in partial contradiction to your line "Screwworm
               | detection and prevention was not halted because of the
               | USAID shutdown"
        
               | DangitBobby wrote:
               | This was downvoted because...?
        
         | mkoubaa wrote:
         | I don't see why a trade group of affected industries can't
         | collectively fund this
        
       | grej wrote:
       | The US successfully eradicated screwworms here in 1966 with a
       | brilliant integrated sterile insect technique - I think the very
       | first use of it (and had previously funded helping other
       | countries control it also). But if we had another outbreak
       | spread, I doubt there's any shred of competence left in this
       | current gutted federal government to do anything like that again.
       | Maybe they can have the new ICE folks try to deport the screwworm
       | flies.
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | They announced funding to do it again, back in June. But I have
         | no idea if there's anyone around to pay.
        
           | superxpro12 wrote:
           | Lead times are asymmetric.
        
         | luketaylor wrote:
         | The current plan was announced here a few weeks ago:
         | https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/06/...
        
       | amoshebb wrote:
       | Some folks are posting about the regular flights over Panama, and
       | I've seen talk about ending screwworm with a "gene drive", but I
       | also feel that it doesn't feel necessary.
       | 
       | But a third option I don't see talked about a lot: finish the
       | job. We could drop sterile flies all over the USA and Mexico all
       | the way into panama with 1950s tech. We have drones now, surely
       | some inexpensive paper planes shoved out of the back of hercs
       | could cover roughly all of south america for fairly cheap.
        
         | throwup238 wrote:
         | There is no finishing the job. Screwworm flies have tons of
         | reservoirs in the jungles of Central America that aren't
         | practical to eliminate for logistical and ecological reasons.
         | We can only control the population in agriculturally important
         | areas by constantly releasing the sterile male flies every
         | year. Whenever we stop the releases, the flies bounce back in a
         | few years.
        
           | rdl wrote:
           | The durable reservoirs are in South America, not Central
           | America. We actually eradicated it (at least essentially) all
           | the way down to the Darien Gap.
        
       | whynotmaybe wrote:
       | > This is maintained with stringent animal movement controls,
       | surveillance, trapping, and following the proven science to push
       | the NWS barrier south in phases as quickly as possible.
       | 
       | Why add "proven" before science?
       | 
       | Nobody expects the USDA to handle such problems with "unproven
       | science", for whatever it could be.
       | 
       | For decades they've made the sterilized flies by exposing them to
       | gamma radiation that damages their reproductive system and it's
       | been effective.
       | 
       | Am I getting doubtful of every announcement from this
       | administration or are they trying to tackle conspiracy theories
       | from the start?
        
       | jeff_lee wrote:
       | Feels like we had the cure in our hands and just let the disease
       | walk back in.
        
         | db48x wrote:
         | The "cure" is an unceasing war. Then COVID hit and the war
         | ceased for a few months.
        
           | Eextra953 wrote:
           | So with pests and viruses there is no real eradication? Do
           | they really require an unceasing war to reign them in? I have
           | no knowledge of this field - just curious.
        
             | hotep99 wrote:
             | Screwworms could probably be eradicated in theory but it
             | would require spreading the sterile fly program to the
             | entirety of the Americas which isn't going to happen. There
             | would always be a pocket somewhere in the Amazon of fertile
             | flies so it isn't really viable. The point of stopping them
             | at the Darien Gap was that there was a geographically small
             | area where their spread could be halted from entering
             | Central and North America and re-establishing themselves.
        
             | db48x wrote:
             | It depends on the pest. Some of them are easier to
             | eliminate than others. With screwworm flies the only
             | offense we have is to raise them by the billions, sterilize
             | them with radiation, chill them down, and then drop them
             | out of airplanes. Fertile females end up mating with
             | sterile males and then cannot lay any eggs before they die.
             | Each generation then becomes radically smaller than the
             | previous. Since their lifecycle is only a few weeks long
             | this eliminates them in a few months. They were able to
             | successfully eradicate the screwworm fly from North and
             | Central America, but a combination of expense and
             | diplomatic entanglements prevented them from continuing
             | south past Panama. There have been outbreaks before, most
             | notably in Egypt (or maybe just northern Africa, I forget)
             | a few decades ago.
             | 
             | We have different responses to other pests. For example,
             | Florida maintains a mosquito control program that sprays
             | vast swathes of the state with insecticide from both the
             | ground and the air every 7 days. I imagine that other
             | southern states do as well.
        
             | thfuran wrote:
             | Rinderpest (a cattle disease) and Smallpox are the only two
             | diseases ever successfully eradicated. The smallpox vaccine
             | was the first vaccine ever invented, and it took until
             | 1980, about 180 years later, to eradicate the disease
             | entirely. It pretty much is an unceasing war, though Guinea
             | worm and polio are also relatively close to being
             | eradicated. But if you stop fighting them, they'll just
             | spread again.
        
       | thrown-0825 wrote:
       | I assumed this was a computer virus affecting an exchange based
       | on it being at the top of HN.
        
       | dlisboa wrote:
       | With this and the tariffs on Brazil the US consumer is going to
       | feel it.
        
       | Pxtl wrote:
       | This was literally one of the first North American disasters I
       | saw predicted as falling out of the Doge cuts.
        
         | renewiltord wrote:
         | The barrier failure happened last year due to covid related
         | supply chain issues that eventually reached the end of the
         | bullwhip and was announced then.
        
         | Eextra953 wrote:
         | Any other predictions you saw/see coming? I feel like it would
         | be useful to collect all of the predictions from people with
         | domain knowledge and then build a website to track them all.
         | Whether or not they happen, who knows, but being able to track
         | them should be a big help in building a narrative of what is
         | really happening vs media narratives that are hyper localized
         | in time and often do a terrible job of explaining the long
         | history of events.
        
         | delfinom wrote:
         | This predates the DOGE cuts. During COVID and afterwards
         | smuggling of cattle across from South America into Central
         | America basically went full tilt and is considered the reason
         | why the program collapsed.
         | 
         | https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...
        
       | Bender wrote:
       | Whether your meat comes form South America or the US or the EU,
       | always wear gloves when handling raw meats and don't touch your
       | face. There are thousands of types of dangerous larvae that can
       | infect via the eyes _rubbing the eyes_ or the nose _picking ones
       | nose_ when handling raw meats and vegetables. Cutting meat slices
       | thinner and cooking them well kills larvae. Marinating meats with
       | something that contains acetic acid also helps. Stomach acid
       | takes care of the rest.
       | 
       | Beware of the fear porn spreading around this issue. I have
       | already seen articles posted showing what happens when rubbing
       | ones eyes or picking ones nose after handling raw food and of
       | course it is horrific but screw worms are just one of many real
       | risks. Food handlers in first world countries are taught not to
       | touch their faces and to wear gloves among many other safety
       | practices with raw meats and vegetables. Everyone _both
       | vegetarian and carnivore_ unknowingly eat many types of larvae,
       | bacteria, mold, fungus and insects all the time.
       | 
       | I know I will get beat up for going against the agenda but I am
       | that guy.
        
         | Aurornis wrote:
         | > I know I will get beat up for going against the agenda but I
         | am that guy.
         | 
         | Food safety with raw meets isn't really going against the
         | agenda.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | What's with everyone saying they know some secret that
           | everyone else is trying to suppress?
           | 
           | Is it just that we all spend time in our bubble and take that
           | to other groups?
           | 
           | I don't even know what agenda he's going against by saying
           | one should be careful around raw meat. Who's on the other
           | side of this?
        
             | sejje wrote:
             | He's so effectively standing alone that nobody dare stand
             | against him.
        
             | f1shy wrote:
             | I have had lots of discussions with people who insist in
             | eating all raw. I have been in a restaurant where a
             | teenager ordered a raw beef right beaid us. Made me sick
             | just of seeing, feeling the raw meat smell, and hearing the
             | chewing. I have seen enough "chefs" handling raw meat in
             | tv, putting it literally seconds in heat, and basically
             | eating raw. There is no agenda, but I do see a trend.
        
               | wahnfrieden wrote:
               | The shock of it is gamed for TikTok and Reels virality
        
               | 1718627440 wrote:
               | I thought not eating raw meat was more of an US thing,
               | here in Europe/Germany there are some dishes that
               | consists of raw meat, and that doesn't mean heated for
               | seconds. Guess that's why we also have stricter hygiene
               | rules.
        
               | belter wrote:
               | The french steak tartare is very common in France, in
               | many corporate canteen.
        
               | orwin wrote:
               | 'tartare' you see in corporate canteen (and a lot of
               | restaurants sadly) are from Metro, and are absolutely
               | safe: after being cut, it's flash-freezed in its can, and
               | the can is only opened seconds before the meat is
               | prepared, minutes before being served.
               | 
               | They're not really good, but they're safe.
        
         | f1shy wrote:
         | >> always wear gloves when handling raw meats and don't touch
         | your face.
         | 
         | Ecoli alone should be enough to be careful with handling raw
         | meats (of any animal) and of course the worms and other things.
         | Specially if you have ANY wounds, small as they are, if e.g.
         | lemon juice burns, is an open wound.
         | 
         | Also meat should be cooked properly. Lately seems to be kind of
         | hype, almost a competition, who eats the rawer meat. 5 star
         | chefs are pushing more and more red, even I have seen "chefs"
         | simply literally laying meat for 5 seconds. The texture is
         | gummy, taste horrible, and just dangerous.
        
         | 1718627440 wrote:
         | That won't help your costumers that eat the raw meat you
         | prepared, you still need to have proper hygiene in the complete
         | food chain.
        
       | erredois wrote:
       | Coming from a family that has cattle and dairy cows in south
       | eastern Brazil, where screwworm is endemic, I was surprised when
       | I listened to a podcast about screwworm, and some of the
       | descriptions about how huge the problem was in the US. After some
       | research it appears it affects more climates that are always hot
       | and humid, and big operations where the animals are not being
       | checked frequently. Also the handling at the 60s was probably
       | much worse than modern techniques for avoiding animals being hurt
       | and treating when they are infected.
        
         | Aurornis wrote:
         | > I was surprised when I listened to a podcast about screwworm,
         | and some of the descriptions about how huge the problem was in
         | the US.
         | 
         | It's not a huge problem in the US. We eradicated screwworm in
         | the 60s.
         | 
         | We are trying very hard to keep it out. The US normally works
         | very hard to monitor and prevent these situations in trade
         | partners.
         | 
         | https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flesh-eating-scre...
        
       | nabla9 wrote:
       | 'Man-eating' screw worm turns hospital into horror show
       | https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...
       | 
       | Mexican Livestock halted while US is in trade war with Brazil (21
       | percent of all US beef imports).
        
       | ryanmerket wrote:
       | July 9th? Wrong date or is this a month old?
        
       | xipho wrote:
       | Very hard to escape biology unless you invest in understanding
       | it. Ticks, mosquito-born diseases, agricultural pests, they don't
       | care about AI, politics, or space-races or geo political
       | boundaries. We, on the other hand, require life to go on, it's
       | asynchronous.
       | 
       | This is why natural history collections, and taxonomists are
       | going to be more critical than ever, at some point we'll need to
       | re-invest in knowing what's out there, and, more importantly how
       | and why it's different than what we knew before. Biodiversity is
       | vast, this isn't easy.
       | 
       | Companies that anticipate this (we know we're going to get a
       | billion requests for "what's this fly", how can we monitize
       | this?), and also actully understand that species are literally
       | invaluable lab experiments running millions of years, are bound
       | to benefit. In a not so distance Scifi future will we see big
       | pharma, defense, etc. protecting areas and their environments
       | because they finally grok this?
        
         | zwnow wrote:
         | I highly doubt big pharma will intervene. Humans only care
         | about the foreseeable future. Our interest and actions
         | regarding climate change shows that openly to each and everyone
         | of us.
        
           | xipho wrote:
           | Big pharma will intervene when they realize that life is one
           | big chemistry experiment, and it's running longer than any
           | lab has. AI to predict, nature to produce, then you need to
           | figure out how nature produced. Understanding the pathways in
           | nature -> quicker time to product.
        
         | paulcole wrote:
         | In what is it "asynchronous"?
        
           | bspammer wrote:
           | I'm sure they meant asymmetrical
        
           | xipho wrote:
           | Child comment is probably right, "asymmetrical" was likely
           | going through my mind, or some chimera of both. I mean to say
           | that whatever humans do, their actions ("requests"), don't
           | get a response from "nature" immediately, the "response" is
           | unpredictable, particularly as to when it will come back. If
           | we get a break down SS, we get no response. Request(s) ->
           | nature impacted -> some time passes -> response comes back,
           | but not all nice and linear, nor always what we expected.
           | "Promises" only coming with deep understanding.
        
       | guhcampos wrote:
       | I think mr Trump will have to seriously rethink the 50% tariff he
       | put on our (Brazilian) meat imports then. Interesting.
        
         | sparrish wrote:
         | Yeah, cause you guys don't have screw worms in Brazil? It's
         | likely the screw worms in Mexico now came from Brazil.
        
       | chris_wot wrote:
       | America put a large tariff on Australian beef. We don't have
       | this.
       | 
       | Guess you all like eating expensive beef.
        
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