[HN Gopher] Yet Another LLM Rant
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Yet Another LLM Rant
        
       Author : sohkamyung
       Score  : 55 points
       Date   : 2025-08-09 12:25 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (overengineer.dev)
 (TXT) w3m dump (overengineer.dev)
        
       | techpineapple wrote:
       | I wonder if one reasons new versions of GPT appear to get better
       | - say at coding tasks is just because they have new knowledge.
       | 
       | When ChatGPT4 comes out, new versions of API's will have less
       | blog post / examples / documentation in their training data. So
       | ChatGPT 5 comes out and seems to solve all the problems that
       | ChatGPT4 had, but then of course fail on newer libraries. Rinse
       | and repeat
        
         | its-kostya wrote:
         | > ... just because they have new knowledge.
         | 
         | This means there is a future where AI is training on data it
         | self generated, and I worry that might not be sustainable.
        
           | techpineapple wrote:
           | I've heard of this idea of training on synthetic data, I
           | wonder what is that data and does this increase or decrease
           | hallucinations? Is the goal of training on synthetic data to
           | better wear certain paths, or to increase the amount of
           | knowledge / types of data.
           | 
           | Because the second seems vaguely impossible to do.
        
           | jgalt212 wrote:
           | A software based Habsburg Jaw if you will.
        
           | lazide wrote:
           | This is already occurring, is not sustainable, and produces
           | an effect known as Model Collapse.
        
       | jmkni wrote:
       | what's funny is that newer models will now be trained on the
       | exact question, "Without adding third-party dependencies, how can
       | I compress a Data stream with zstd in Swift on an iPhone?" and
       | similar questions to it, because of this post
       | 
       | maybe the key to training future llm's is to write angry blog
       | posts about the things they aren't good at and get them to the
       | front page of hn?
        
         | nikolayasdf123 wrote:
         | good point. nobody knows you are a dog on internet anyways
        
       | nikolayasdf123 wrote:
       | > "Not having an answer" is not a possibility in this system -
       | there's always "a most likely response", even if that makes no
       | sense.
       | 
       | simple fix - probability cutoff. but in all seriousness this is
       | something that will be fixed. don't see fundamental reason why
       | not.
       | 
       | and I myself seen such hallucinations (about compression too
       | actually) as well.
        
         | Seb-C wrote:
         | Hallucinations are not a bug or an exception, but a feature.
         | Everything outputted by LLMs is 100% made-up, with a heavy bias
         | towards what has been fed to it at first (human written
         | content).
         | 
         | The fundamental reason why it cannot be fixed is because the
         | model does not know anything about the reality, there is simply
         | no such concept here.
         | 
         | To make a "probability cutoff" you first need a probability
         | about what the reality/facts/truth is, and we have no such
         | reliable and absolute data (and probably never will).
        
           | nikolayasdf123 wrote:
           | have you seen Iris flowers dataset? it is fairly simple to
           | find cutoffs to classify flowers.
           | 
           | or are you claiming in general that there is no objective
           | truth in reality in philosophical sense? well, you can go on
           | that more philosophical side of the road, or you can get more
           | pragmatic. things just work, regardless how we talk about
           | them.
        
             | Seb-C wrote:
             | I don't mean it in a philosophical sense, more in a
             | rigorous scientific one.
             | 
             | Yes, we do have reliable datasets as in your example, but
             | those are for specific topics and are not based on natural
             | language. What I would call "classical" machine learning is
             | already a useful technology where it's applied.
             | 
             | Jumping from separate datasets focused on specific topics
             | to a single dataset describing "everything" at once is not
             | something we are even close to doing, if it's even
             | possible. Hence the claim of having a single AI able to
             | answer anything is unreasonable.
             | 
             | The second issue is that even if we had such a hypothetical
             | dataset, ultimately if you want a formal response from it,
             | you need a formal question and a formal language (probably
             | something between maths and programming?) in all the steps
             | of the workflow.
             | 
             | LLMs are only statistical models about natural languages,
             | so it's the antithesis of this very idea. To achieve that
             | would have to be a completely different technology that has
             | yet to even be theoretized.
        
           | simianwords wrote:
           | >To make a "probability cutoff" you first need a probability
           | about what the reality/facts/truth is, and we have no such
           | reliable and absolute data (and probably never will).
           | 
           | Can a human give a probability estimate to their predictions?
        
           | tmnvdb wrote:
           | You use a lot of anthropomorphisms: doesn't "know" anything
           | (does your hard drive know things? Is it relevant?), "making
           | things up" is even more linked to continuous intent. Unless
           | you believe the LLMs are sentient this is a strange choice of
           | words.
        
             | Seb-C wrote:
             | I originally put quotes around "know" and somehow lost it
             | in an edit.
             | 
             | I'm precisely trying to criticize the claims of AGI and
             | intelligence. English is not my native language, so nuances
             | might be wrong.
             | 
             | I used the word "makes-up" in the sense of "builds" or
             | "constructs" and did not mean any intelligence there.
        
       | bfioca wrote:
       | >...it's a useless tool. I don't like collaborating with chronic
       | liars who aren't able to openly point out knowledge gaps...
       | 
       | I think a more correct take here might be "it's a tool that I
       | don't trust enough to use without checking," or at the very
       | least, "it's a useless tool for my purposes." I understand your
       | point, but I got a little caught up on the above line because
       | it's very far out of alignment with my own experience using it to
       | save enormous amounts of time.
        
         | lazide wrote:
         | It's a tool that fundamentally can't be used reliably without
         | double checking everything it. That is rather different than
         | you're presenting it.
        
           | tmnvdb wrote:
           | So similar to wikipedia
        
             | simianwords wrote:
             | Similar to anything really. Can I really trust anything
             | without verifying? Scientific journals?
        
               | lblume wrote:
               | It seems that on some level, you have to in order to not
               | just constantly reflecting upon your thoughts and
               | researching facts. Whether you trust a given source
               | should surely depend upon its reputation regarding the
               | validity of its claims.
        
               | simianwords wrote:
               | I agree and by reputation you mean accuracy. We
               | implicitly know not to judge anything as 100% true and
               | implicitly apply skepticism towards sources - the
               | skepticism is decided by our past experience with the
               | sources.
               | 
               | Think of LLMs as the less accurate version of scientific
               | journals.
        
               | lblume wrote:
               | Accuracy certainly does play a role, but this in itself
               | is not sufficient for preventing an infinite regress -
               | how does one determine the accuracy of a source if not by
               | evaluating claims about the source, that themselves have
               | sources that need to be checked for accuracy? Empirical
               | inquiries are optimal but often very unpractical.
               | Reputation is accuracy as imperfectly valued by society
               | or specific social groups collectively.
        
               | exe34 wrote:
               | Do you verify everything? When your wife puts food in
               | front of you, do you make her take a bite off your plate
               | first to check for poison?
        
               | simonw wrote:
               | A crucial difference between LLMs and people is that you
               | can build a mutual trust relationship with a person.
        
               | exe34 wrote:
               | Exactly - also, if I were 14 I'd be hyperventilating
               | right now. I love your blog posts!
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | Checking is usually faster than writing from scratch so this
           | is still +EV
        
             | efilife wrote:
             | What does +EV mean? I'm looking but can't find a definition
        
               | lblume wrote:
               | Expected Value?
        
               | dcrazy wrote:
               | Positive expected value. In other words, it's likely
               | using a LLM saves you time relative to performing the
               | same task without using an LLM.
        
               | rcxdude wrote:
               | "Positive expected value", i.e. it'll pay off on average.
        
             | exe34 wrote:
             | > Checking is usually faster than writing from scratch
             | 
             | Famous last words. Checking trivial code for trivial bugs,
             | yes. In science, you can have very subtle bugs that bias
             | your results in ways that aren't obvious for a while until
             | suddenly you find yourself retracting papers.
             | 
             | I've used LLMs to write tedious code (that should probably
             | have been easier if the right API had been thought
             | through), but when it comes to the important stuff, I'll
             | probably always write an obviously correct version first
             | and then let the LLM try to make a faster/more capable
             | version, that I can check against the correct version.
        
               | dcrazy wrote:
               | Humans are notoriously bad at checking for meticulous
               | detail--hence why copyediting was a specialized role.
               | We've seen what's happened since the newspapers
               | eliminated it for cost savings.
               | 
               | I only used an LLM for the first time recently, to
               | rewrite a YouTube transcript into a recipe. It was
               | excellent at the overall restructuring, but it made a
               | crucial and subtle mistake. The recipe called for
               | dividing 150g of sugar, adding 30g of cornstarch to one
               | half, and blanching eggs in that mixture. ChatGPT rewrote
               | it so that you blanched the eggs in the _other_ half,
               | without the cornstarch. This left me with a boiling
               | custard that wasn't setting up.
               | 
               | I did confirm that the YouTube transcript explicitly said
               | to use the sugar and cornstarch mixture. But I didn't do
               | a side by side comparison because the whole reason for
               | doing the rewrite is that transcripts are difficult to
               | read!
        
               | libraryofbabel wrote:
               | > I'll probably always write an obviously correct version
               | first
               | 
               | I'm not usually so confident in my own infallibility, so
               | I prefer to think of it as "I might get this wrong, the
               | LLM might get this wrong, our failure modes are probably
               | not very correlated, so the best thing is for us both to
               | do it and compare."
               | 
               | Agree it is always better for the human engineer to try
               | writing the critical code first, since they are
               | susceptible to being biased by seeing the LLM's attempt.
               | Whereas you can easily hide your solution from the LLM.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | We double check human work too in all kinds of contexts.
           | 
           | A whole lot of my schooling involved listening to teachers
           | repeating over and over to us how we should check our work,
           | because we can't even trust ourselves.
           | 
           | (heck, I had to double-check and fix typos in this comment)
        
             | ModernMech wrote:
             | It's very weird to me when someone says "this tool does not
             | have this common property good tools have" and someone
             | replies "humans also do not have those properties!" As if
             | that is responsive to a complaint about a tool lacking a
             | common property of tools.
             | 
             | We use tools because they work in ways that humans do not.
             | Through centuries of building and using tools, we as a
             | society have learned what makes a tool good versus bad.
             | 
             | Good tools are reliable. They have a clear purpose and
             | ergonomic user interface. They are straightforward to use
             | and transparent in how they operate.
             | 
             | LLMs are none of these things. It doesn't matter that
             | humans also are none of these things, if we are trying to
             | use LLMs as tools.
             | 
             | The closest human invention resembling an LLM is the idea
             | of a bureaucracy -- LLMs are not good tools, they are not
             | good humans, they are mindless automatons that stand in the
             | way and lead you astray.
             | 
             | At best, LLMs are poor tools and also poor human
             | replacements, which is why it's so frustrating to me we are
             | so intent on replacing good tools and humans with LLMs.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | The reason for making that observation is that we _don 't
               | have any other comparable tools_ and it is more
               | reasonable to benchmark LLMs against what humans are
               | capable of, because whether or not they are _good_
               | approximations, we are trying to model human abilities.
               | 
               | One day maybe we exceed human abilities, but it's
               | unreasonable to expect early attempts - and they are
               | still early attempts - to do things we don't know how to
               | beat other than by putting all kinds of complex process
               | on top of very flawed human thinking.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | We _do_ have comparable tools to LLMs. There are plenty
               | of human-composed tools that can do what LLMs do, like
               | Mechanical Turk for instance. The human-composed tool
               | that most closely resembles a LLM is the  "bureaucracy".
               | 
               | An LLM is like a little committee you send a request to,
               | and based on capricious, opaque rules that can change at
               | any time, the committee returns a response that may or
               | may not service your request. You can't know ahead of
               | time if it will, and depending on the time of day, the
               | political environment, or the amount of work before the
               | committee, the delay of servicing and the quality of
               | service may or may not degrade. Quality may range from a
               | quick accurate response, to flat refusal to service
               | without explanation, or outright lies to your face.
               | There's no way to guarantee a good result, and there's no
               | recourse or explanation for why things go wrong or
               | changed.
               | 
               | LLMs feel like a customer service agent turned into a
               | computer program, which is probably why it was people's
               | first thought to use LMMs to automate customer service
               | agents. They are a perfect fit there, but I don't want
               | them to be my primary interface to do work. I have enough
               | bureaucracies to deal with as it is.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | > We do have comparable tools to LLMs. There are plenty
               | of human-composed tools that can do what LLMs do, like
               | Mechanical Turk for instance.
               | 
               | If you are going to treat humans as tools, then sure. In
               | which case measuring LLMs against human ability is
               | exactly the right thing, given that with Mechanical Turk
               | the tasks are carried out by humans - sometimes with the
               | help of LLMs...
               | 
               | It's utterly bizarre to argue over my comparing LLMs to
               | humans when the tools you argue are comparable _are
               | humans_.
        
         | libraryofbabel wrote:
         | and as others have pointed out, this issue of "how much should
         | I check" is really just a subset of an old general problem in
         | trust and knowledge ("epistemology" or what have you) that
         | people have recognized since at least the scientific
         | revolution. The Royal Society's motto on its founding in the
         | 1660s was "take no man's word for it."
         | 
         | Coding agents have now got pretty good at checking themselves
         | against reality, at least for things where they can run unit
         | tests or a compiler to surface errors. That would catch the
         | error in TFA. Of course there is still more checking to do down
         | the line, in code reviews etc, but that goes for humans too.
         | (This is not to say that humans and LLMs should be treated the
         | _same_ here, but nor do I treat an intern's code and a staff
         | engineer's code the same.) It's a complex issue that we can't
         | really collapse into "LLMs are useless because they get things
         | wrong sometimes."
        
           | AllegedAlec wrote:
           | > Coding agents have now got pretty good at checking
           | themselves against reality, at least for things where they
           | can run unit tests or a compiler to surface errors.
           | 
           | YMMV. I've seen Claude go completely batshit insane saying
           | that tests all passed. Then I run them and I see 50+
           | failures. I copy the output tell him to fix it and he goes on
           | his sycophantic apologia before spinning his wheels doing
           | nothing and saying all tests are back to green.
        
       | cantor_S_drug wrote:
       | There was a writer who in order to get ideas to write about used
       | to cut up words from newspaper headlines and then rearrange them.
       | 
       | In one rearrangement, he got "Son sues father for xyz". That
       | headline came true 2 years later.
        
         | lblume wrote:
         | How is this relevant? Modern LLMs don't rearrange words at all
         | in a meaningful sense of the word, and are certainly better
         | than just using random chance to sample tokens.
        
           | cantor_S_drug wrote:
           | Indeed it is exactly that process. They cutup words. Then
           | categorize them based on some metric of nearness (not
           | random). Then link them up. Obviously this process is much
           | more sophisticated than what I have described here.
        
       | hodgehog11 wrote:
       | I am sympathetic to the reasoning as to why LLMs should not be
       | used to help some programmers right now. But I get a little
       | frustrated seeing many of these kinds of posts that talk about
       | fundamental limitations of LLMs vs humans on the grounds that it
       | cannot "logically reason" like a human does. These are
       | limitations in the current approach to training and objectives;
       | internally, we have no clue what is going on.
       | 
       | > it's "just a statistical model" that generates "language" based
       | on a chain of "what is most likely to follow the previous phrase"
       | 
       | Humans are statistical models too in an appropriate sense. The
       | question is whether we try to execute phrase by phrase or not, or
       | whether it even matters what humans do in the long term.
       | 
       | > The only way ChatGPT will stop spreading that nonsense is if
       | there is a significant mass of humans talking online about the
       | lack of ZSTD support.
       | 
       | Or you can change the implicit bias in the model by being more
       | clever with your training procedure. This is basic stats here,
       | not everything is about data.
       | 
       | > They don't know anything, they don't think, they don't learn,
       | they don't deduct. They generate real-looking text based on what
       | is most likely based on the information it has been trained on.
       | 
       | This may be comforting to think, but it's just wrong. It would
       | make my job so much easier if it were true. If you take the time
       | to define "know", "think", and "deduct", you will find it
       | difficult to argue current LLMs do not do these things. "Learn"
       | is the exception here, and is a bit more complex, not only
       | because of memory and bandwidth issues, but also because
       | "understand" is difficult to define.
        
         | libraryofbabel wrote:
         | Yeah. The empty "it's just a statistical model" critique (or
         | the dressed-up "stochastic parrots" version of it) is almost a
         | sign at this point that the person using it formed their
         | opinions about AI back when ChatGPT first came out, and hasn't
         | really bothered to engage with it much since then.
         | 
         | If in 2022 I'd tried to convince AI skeptics that in three
         | years we might have tools on the level of Claude Code, I'm sure
         | I'd have heard everyone say it would be impossible because
         | "it's just a statistical model." But it turned out that there
         | was a lot more potential in the architecture for encoding
         | structured knowledge, complex reasoning, etc., despite that
         | architecture being probabilistic. (Don't bet against the Bitter
         | Lesson.)
         | 
         | LLMs have a lot of problems, hallucination still being one of
         | them. I'd be the first to advocate for a skeptical hype-free
         | approach to deploying them in software engineering. But at this
         | point we need careful informed engagement with where the models
         | are at now rather than cherry-picked examples and rants.
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | People repeating the "stochastic parrot" meme in all kinds of
           | variations if anything appear to be more like stochastic
           | parrots than the typical LLM is.
        
           | seba_dos1 wrote:
           | Unless what you work on is very simple and mostly mindless,
           | using tools like Claude Code is the exact opposite of how to
           | make the current SotA LLMs useful for coding. The models can
           | help and boost your productivity, but it doesn't happen by
           | letting them do more stuff autonomously. Quite the contrary.
           | 
           | And when what you usually work on actually is very simple and
           | mostly mindless, you'd probably benefit more from doing it
           | yourself, so you can progress beyond the junior stuff one
           | day.
        
             | structural wrote:
             | Where it really has value is if what you work on is like
             | 33% extremely difficult and 66% boilerplate/tedious. Being
             | able to offload the tedious bits can make more senior
             | engineers 2-3x more productive without the coordination
             | effort of "find a junior engineer to do this, schedule
             | their time, assign the work, follow up on it".
             | 
             | (The problem of course is you still need these junior
             | engineers to exist in order to have the next generatino of
             | senior engineers, so we must now also think about what our
             | junior folks should be doing to be valuable AND learn).
        
         | raincole wrote:
         | While the normal distribution meme is notoriously overused, I
         | think it fits the scenario here.
         | 
         | LLMs know so much (when you just use ChatGPT for the first time
         | like it's an Oracle machine) -> LLMs don't know anything (when
         | you understand how machine learning works) -> LLMs know so much
         | (when you actually think about what 'know' means)
        
         | bwfan123 wrote:
         | Humans build theories of how things work. llms dont. Theories
         | are deterministic symbolic representation of the chaotic worlds
         | of meaning . Take the turing machine for example as a theory of
         | computation in general, euclidean geometry as a theory for
         | space, and newtonian mechanics as a theory for motion.
         | 
         | A theory gives 100% correct predictions. Although the theory
         | itself may not model the world accurately. Such feedback
         | between the theory, and its application in the world causes
         | iterations to the theory. From newtonian mechanics to
         | relativity etc.
         | 
         | Long story short, the LLM is a long way away from any of this.
         | And to be fair to LLMs, the average human is not creating
         | theories, it takes some genius to create them (newton, turing,
         | etc).
         | 
         | Understanding something == knowing the theory of it.
        
           | hodgehog11 wrote:
           | > Humans build theories of how things work. llms dont.
           | Theories are deterministic symbolic representation of the
           | chaotic worlds of meaning
           | 
           | What made you believe this is true? Like it or not, yes, they
           | do (at least to the best extent of our definitions of what
           | you've said). There is a big body of literature exploring
           | this question, and the general consensus is that all
           | performant deep learning models adopt an internal
           | representation that can be extracted as a symbolic
           | representation.
        
             | bwfan123 wrote:
             | > What made you believe this is true?
             | 
             | I am yet to see a theory coming of the LLM that is
             | sufficiently interesting. My comment was answering your
             | question of what does it mean to "understanding something".
             | My answer to that is: understanding something is knowing
             | the theory of it.
             | 
             | Now, that begs the question of what is a theory. And to
             | answer that, a theory comprises of building block symbols
             | and a set of rules to combine them. for example, building
             | blocks for space (and geometry) could be points, lines,
             | etc. The key point in all of this is symbolism as
             | abstractions to represent things in some world.
        
               | hodgehog11 wrote:
               | The "sufficiently interesting" part is the most important
               | qualifier here. My response was talking about theories
               | and representations that we already know, either
               | instinctively from near-birth, or from learned
               | experience. We have not seen anything unique from LLMs
               | because they do not appear to have an internal
               | understanding (in the same sense that I was talking
               | about) that is as broad as an adult human. But that
               | doesn't mean it lacks any understanding.
               | 
               | > The key point in all of this is symbolism as
               | abstractions to represent things in some world.
               | 
               | The difficulty is understanding how to extract this
               | information from the model, since the output of the LLM
               | is actually a very poor representation of its internal
               | state.
        
         | efilife wrote:
         | > it cannot "logically reason" like a human does
         | 
         | Reason? Maybe. But there's one limitation that we currently
         | have no idea how to overcome; LLMs don't know how much they
         | know. If they tell you they don't something it may be a lie. If
         | they tell you they do, this may be a lie too. I, a human,
         | certainly know what I know and what I don't and can recall from
         | where I know the information
        
           | vidarh wrote:
           | I have never met a human who has a good grasp of what they
           | know and don't know. They may have a _better_ graps of it
           | than an LLM, but humans are awfully bad at understanding the
           | limits of our own knowledge, and will argue very strongly in
           | favour of knowing more than we demonstrably do in all kinds
           | of contexts.
        
             | ModernMech wrote:
             | LLMs are not humans, they are ostensibly tools. Tools are
             | supposed to come with a list of things they can do. LLMs
             | don't and are therefore bad at being tools, so we
             | anthropomorphize them. But they are also not good at being
             | people, so LLMs are left in this weird in-between state
             | where half the people say they're useful and half the
             | people say they cause more problems than they solve.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | They are _fantastic_ tools to me. The provide abilities
               | that no other tools we have can provide.
               | 
               | That they also have flaws does not remove those benefits.
        
               | ModernMech wrote:
               | There's no question they have capabilities that no other
               | tool has. But a _good_ tool goes beyond just doing
               | something, there are some generally agreed upon
               | principles of tool design that make something good versus
               | just useful.
               | 
               | For example, I think a hammer is a good tool because
               | every time I swing it at a nail, it provides the force
               | necessary to drive it into the wood. It's reliable. Sure,
               | sometimes a hammer breaks, but my baseline expectation in
               | using one is that every time I swing the hammer it will
               | behave the same way.
               | 
               | Something more complicated, like a Rust compiler is also
               | a good tool in the same way. It's vastly more intricate
               | than the hammer, yet it still has the good tool property
               | of being reliable; every time I press compile, if the
               | program is wrong, then the compiler tells me that. If
               | it's right, then the compiler passes every time. It
               | doesn't lie, it doesn't guess, it doesn't rate limit, it
               | doesn't charge a subscription, it doesn't silently update
               | causing code to fail, it informs when changes are
               | breaking and what they are, it allows me to pick my
               | version and doesn't silently deprecate me without
               | recourse, etc.
               | 
               | There are of course ecosystems out there where building a
               | project is more like a delicate dance, or a courtship
               | ritual, and those ecosystems are pain in the ass to deal
               | with. I'm talking XKCD #1987, or NodeJS circa 2014, or
               | just the entire rationale behind Docker. People exit
               | their careers to not have to deal with such technology,
               | because it's like working at the DMV or living in Kafka's
               | nightmares. LLMs are more in _that_ direction, and no one
               | is going to like where we end up if we make them our
               | entire stack, as seems to be the intent by the powers
               | that be.
               | 
               | There's a difference between what LLMs are and what
               | they're being sold as. For what they are, they can be
               | useful and may one day they will be turned into good
               | tools if some of the major flaws are fixed.
               | 
               | On the other hand, we are in the process of totally
               | upending the way our industry works on the basis of what
               | these things _will be_ , which they are selling as
               | essentially an oracle. "The smartest person who know in
               | your pocket", "a simultaneous expert PhD, MD, JD",
               | "Smarter than all humans combined". But there's a giant
               | gulf between what they're selling and what it is, and
               | that gulf is what makes LLMs a poor tool.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | They are _good_ tools to me.
               | 
               | We won't agree on this.
               | 
               | The provide abilities no other tool provides me with.
               | They could be better, but they've still provided me with
               | possibilities that I have never had before without hiring
               | humans.
        
             | bwfan123 wrote:
             | > I have never met a human who has a good grasp of what
             | they know and don't know
             | 
             | yep. There are 2 processes underlying our behaviors.
             | 
             | 1) a meme-copier which takes in information from various
             | sources and regurgitates it. A rote-memory machine of
             | sorts. Here, memory is populated with info without
             | deconstructing it into a theory. This has been termed
             | "know-that". Here, explanations are shallow, and repeated
             | questioning of why will fail with: I was told so.
             | 
             | 2) a builder which attempts to construct a theory of
             | something. Here, a mechanism is built and understood, and
             | information is deconstructed in the context of the
             | mechanism. This has been termed "know-how". Here,
             | explanations are deeper, and repeated questioning of why
             | will end up with: these are the "givens" in our theory.
             | 
             | Problem is that we operate in the "know-that" territory
             | most of the time, and have not taken the effort to build
             | theories for ourselves in the "know-how" territory.
        
           | AaronAPU wrote:
           | I'm afraid that sense of knowing what you know is very much
           | illusory for humans as well. Everyone is just slowly having
           | to come to terms with that.
        
             | efilife wrote:
             | No. I can tell you what skills I possess. For example:
             | programming, writing music. A LLM can not do this unless
             | it's told what it knows
        
           | lblume wrote:
           | Do you really know what you don't know? This would rule out
           | unknown unknowns entirely.
        
             | add-sub-mul-div wrote:
             | Yes, it's not that people know specifically what they don't
             | know, it's that they develop the wisdom to know those
             | boundaries and anticipate them and reduce their likelihood
             | and impact.
             | 
             | For example, if I use the language of my expertise for a
             | familiar project then the boundaries where the challenges
             | might lie are known. If I start learning a new language for
             | the project I won't know which areas might produce
             | unknowns.
             | 
             | The LLM will happily give you code in a language it's not
             | trained well on. With the same confidence as using any
             | other language.
        
             | efilife wrote:
             | Sorry for copypasting from another comment but this is
             | relevant
             | 
             | I can tell you what skills I possess. For example:
             | programming, writing music. A LLM can not do this unless
             | it's told what it knows. I could also tell you whether I
             | studied thing X or attempted to do it and what success I
             | had. So I'm pretty good at assessing my abilities. A LLM
             | has no idea
        
           | gallerdude wrote:
           | > OpenAI researcher Noam Brown on hallucination with the new
           | IMO reasoning model:
           | 
           | > Mathematicians used to comb through model solutions because
           | earlier systems would quietly flip an inequality or tuck in a
           | wrong step, creating hallucinated answers.
           | 
           | > Brown says the updated IMO reasoning model now tends to say
           | "I'm not sure" whenever it lacks a valid proof, which sharply
           | cuts down on those hidden errors.
           | 
           | > TLDR, the model shows a clear shift away from
           | hallucinations and toward reliable, self-aware reasoning.
           | 
           | Source: https://x.com/chatgpt21/status/1950606890758476264
        
           | mrcartmeneses wrote:
           | Socrates would beg to differ
        
           | hodgehog11 wrote:
           | You are judging this based on what the LLM outputs, not on
           | its internals. When we peer into its internals, it seems that
           | LLMs actually have a pretty good representation of what they
           | do and don't know; this just isn't reflected in the output
           | because the relevant information is lost in future context.
        
         | Barrin92 wrote:
         | >Humans are statistical models too in an appropriate sense.
         | 
         | No, we aren't and I'm getting tired of this question begging
         | and completely wrong statement. Human beings are capable of
         | what Kant in fancy words called "transcendental apperception",
         | we're already bringing our faculties to bear on experience
         | without which the world would make no sense to us.
         | 
         | What that means in practical terms for programming problems of
         | this kind is that, we can say "I don't know", which the LLM
         | can't, because there's no "I", in the LLM, no unified subject
         | that can distinguish what it knows and what it doesn't, what's
         | within its domain of knowledge or outside.
         | 
         | >If you take the time to define "know", "think", and "deduct",
         | you will find it difficult to argue current LLMs do not do
         | these things
         | 
         | No, only if you _don 't_ spend the time to think about what
         | knowledge is you'd make such a statement. What enables
         | knowledge, which is not raw data but synthesized, structured
         | cognition, is the faculties of the mind a priori categories we
         | bring to bear on data.
         | 
         | That's why these systems are about as useless as a monkey with
         | a typewriter when you try to have them work on manual memory
         | management in C, because that's less of a task in auto
         | completion and requires you to have in your mind a working
         | model of the machine.
        
           | lblume wrote:
           | The position of Kant does not align with the direction modern
           | neuroscience is heading towards. Current evidence seems to
           | prefer decentralized theories of consciousness like Dennett's
           | multiple drafts model[1], suggesting there is no central
           | point where everything comes together to form conscious
           | experience, but instead that it itself is constituted by
           | collaborative processes that have multiple realizations.
           | 
           | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_drafts_model
        
             | Barrin92 wrote:
             | >Current evidence seems to prefer decentralized theories of
             | consciousness like Dennett
             | 
             | There is no such thing as consciousness in Dennett's
             | theory, his position is that it doesn't exist, he is a
             | Eliminativist. This is of course an absurd position with no
             | evidence for it as people like Chalmers have pointed out
             | (including in that Wikipedia article), and it might be the
             | most comical and ideological position in the last 200
             | years.
        
               | EnergyAmy wrote:
               | From the link:
               | 
               | > However, Dennett is not denying the existence of the
               | mind or of consciousness, only what he considers a naive
               | view of them
               | 
               | It doesn't seem like he's Eliminativist. It also seems
               | like the criticisms rely on harping on about qualia,
               | which is one of the sillier schools of sophistry. I'd
               | need to see actual criticisms before believing that
               | Dennett is pushing for something comical.
        
           | HDThoreaun wrote:
           | Kant was a dualist, of course he didnt think humans were
           | statistical models. It just turns out he was (probably)
           | wrong.
        
           | hodgehog11 wrote:
           | This is interesting philosophy, and others have better
           | critiques here in that regard. I'm a mathematician, so I can
           | only work in what I can define symbolically. Humans most
           | certainly ARE statistical models by that definition: without
           | invoking the precise terminology, we take input, yield
           | output, and plausibly involve uncertain elements. One can
           | argue as to whether this is the correct language or not, but
           | I prefer to think this way, as the arrogance of human
           | thinking has otherwise failed us in making good predictions
           | about AI.
           | 
           | If you can come up with a symbolic description of a
           | deficiency in how LLMs approach problems, that's fantastic,
           | because we can use that to alter how these models are
           | trained, and how we approach problems too!
           | 
           | > What that means in practical terms for programming problems
           | of this kind is that, we can say "I don't know", which the
           | LLM can't, because there's no "I", in the LLM, no unified
           | subject that can distinguish what it knows and what it
           | doesn't, what's within its domain of knowledge or outside.
           | 
           | We seriously don't know whether there is an "I" that is
           | comprehended or not. I've seen arguments either way. But
           | otherwise, this seems to refer to poor internal calibration
           | of uncertainty, correct? This is an important problem! (It's
           | also a problem with humans too, but I digress). LLMs aren't
           | nearly as bad as this as you might think, and there are a lot
           | of things you can do (that the big tech companies do not do)
           | that can better tune it's own self-confidence (as reflected
           | in logits). I'm not aware of anything that uses this
           | information as part of the context, so that might be a great
           | idea. But on the other hand, maybe this actually isn't as
           | important as we think it is.
        
             | Peritract wrote:
             | > I'm a mathematician, so I can only work in what I can
             | define symbolically.
             | 
             | This is a limitation of you, not an argument. Of course
             | everything will look the same to you if that's the only way
             | you can represent them.
             | 
             | We have more disciplines than mathematics because
             | mathematically is not the only valid way to explore things.
        
           | rileymat2 wrote:
           | It is kind of interesting you are arguing with a human about
           | the ability to distinguish what is known and not known.
           | 
           | Where your claim is humans know and LLMs don't, but the op is
           | wrong and does not know what he does not know.
        
       | gdsys wrote:
       | "Based on my research, zstd compression is not natively supported
       | by iOS or Apple's frameworks, which means you cannot use zstd
       | compression without adding some form of external code to your
       | project"
       | 
       | Thanks Sonnet.
       | 
       | Full response:
       | 
       | https://www.perplexity.ai/search/without-adding-third-party-...
        
         | dcre wrote:
         | Most likely the key here is web search. Later I will try the
         | post's example with gpt-5 with search. I would be surprised if
         | it didn't say the same thing.
         | 
         | From a product point of view, it seems clear that just as they
         | have work to get the model to dynamically decide to use
         | reasoning when it would help, they have to do the same with web
         | search.
        
       | nikolayasdf123 wrote:
       | possible solution: "reality checks"
       | 
       | I see that GitHub Copilot actually runs code, writes simple
       | exploratory programs, iteratively tests its hypothesis. it is
       | astoundingly effective and fast.
       | 
       | same here. nothing stops this AI to actually trying to implement
       | whatever this AI suggested, compile it, and see if this is
       | actually works.
       | 
       | grounding in reality at inference time, so to speak.
        
       | quantum_state wrote:
       | An implication from the 1985 paper of Peter Naur on programming
       | as theory building is that the current LLM coding tool would be
       | very effective in generating technical debt even when it works
       | ... use at your own risk.
        
       | simianwords wrote:
       | The prompt works for me and correctly identifies that zstd
       | doesn't work
       | https://chatgpt.com/share/689769c5-bd68-800b-ae63-c6a337dcfa...
       | 
       | "Short answer: you can't. iOS doesn't ship a Zstandard (zstd)
       | encoder/decoder in any first-party framework. Apple's built-in
       | Compression framework supports LZFSE, LZ4, zlib/deflate, and LZMA
       | --not zstd."
        
       | Maro wrote:
       | I'm currently working as a hands-off VP, so I don't use LLMs for
       | coding at work, only for emails and document editing. I do use it
       | for my hobby weekend coding stuff, which usually involves writing
       | short 100-1000 LOC Python toy programs for my own
       | education/entertainment. My way-of-working is quite primitive, I
       | have zero integrations, nothing agentic, I just copy/paste with
       | ChatGPT.
       | 
       | For this use-case it's been very useful, it can usually generate
       | close-to-complete solutions, as long as it's one of the major
       | programming languages, and it's a reasonably standard problem. So
       | in general I'm always surprised when people say that LLMs are
       | completely useless for coding --- this is just not true, and I
       | feel sorry for people who shut themselves off from a useful tool.
       | 
       | But even at this small scale, even the best (o3) models sometimes
       | totally fail. Recently I started a series of posts on distributed
       | algorithms [1], and when I was working on the post/code for the
       | Byzantine Generals / Consensus algorithm, o3 --- to my honest
       | surprise --- just totally failed. I tried about 10 different
       | times (both from scratch and describing the incorrect behaviour
       | of its code), also showing it the original Lamport paper, and it
       | just couldn't get it right... even though the toy implementation
       | is just ~100 LOC, the actual algorithm portion is maybe 25 LOC.
       | My hypothesis is that there are very few implementations online,
       | and additionally I find the descriptions of the algorithm a bit
       | vague (interleaves message cascade and decision logic).
       | 
       | [1] https://bytepawn.com/tag/distributed.html
        
       | drakenot wrote:
       | ChatGPT 5> _Without adding third-party dependencies, how can I
       | compress a Data stream with zstd in Swift on an iPhone?_
       | 
       | (It auto-routed to its thinking model, took 25s)
       | 
       | > Short answer: you can't. iOS doesn't ship a public zstd
       | encoder/decoder. The system Compression and AppleArchive
       | frameworks only expose lzfse, lz4, zlib/deflate, and lzma. So
       | with only Apple SDKs, there's no way to produce zstd-compressed
       | bytes.
       | 
       | > > Two practical paths:
       | 
       | > 1. If zstd isn't mandatory, use a built-in codec (lzfse or lz4
       | are fastest) via Compression's streaming API. Example (pure
       | Swift, no deps) that compresses an arbitrary byte stream: >
       | 
       | > <code example>
       | 
       | > 2. If zstd is mandatory, you must embed zstd yourself. That can
       | mean:
       | 
       | > - Vendoring the official C sources (libzstd) directly into your
       | project and calling them via a tiny Swift wrapper/bridging header
       | 
       | > - Statically linking a prebuilt libzstd.a you compile for iOS
        
         | hodgehog11 wrote:
         | I think the useful takeaway here is that Top 1 operation is
         | generally not a good idea, especially not for making
         | judgements. This doesn't address the main points of the blog
         | though.
        
         | djeastm wrote:
         | Here's what I got with ChatGPT GPT-5, it must not have thought
         | about it because it was near instantaneous:
         | 
         | >On iOS, you can use Apple's built-in Zstandard (zstd)
         | compression API from the Compression framework -- no third-
         | party dependencies required.
         | 
         | >Here's how you can compress a Data stream with zstd: >...
         | 
         | https://chatgpt.com/share/68976c8f-7ae0-8012-b7a8-58e016246d...
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | Looks like that time it didn't route to the thinking model.
           | The router mechanism is deeply confusing right now:
           | https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1954210778321465634
        
       | tptacek wrote:
       | _LLMs can be a useful tool, maybe. But don't anthropomorphize
       | them._
       | 
       | (but, earlier)
       | 
       |  _If a tool is able to actively mislead me this easy, which
       | potentially results in me wasting significant amounts of time in
       | trying to make something work that is guaranteed to never work,
       | it's a useless tool. I don't like collaborating with chronic
       | liars_.
        
         | lblume wrote:
         | With chronic liar being a severe anthropomorphization by itself
         | due to assuming some level of intent by the LLM, correct?
        
           | tptacek wrote:
           | Yes. They had it right at the end of the piece, when they
           | said "don't anthropomorphize". LLMs don't "lie".
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | > This concludes all the testing for GPT5 I have to do. If a tool
       | is able to actively mislead me this easy, which potentially
       | results in me wasting significant amounts of time in trying to
       | make something work that is guaranteed to never work, it's a
       | useless tool.
       | 
       | Yeah, except it isn't. You can get enormous value out of LLMs if
       | you get over this weird science fiction requirement that they
       | never make mistakes.
       | 
       | And yeah, their confidence is frustrating. Treat them like an
       | over-confident twenty-something intern who doesn't like to admit
       | when they get stuff wrong.
       | 
       | You have to put the effort in to learn how to use them with a
       | skeptical eye. I've been getting value as a developer from LLMs
       | since the GPT-3 era, and those models _sucked_.
       | 
       | > The only way ChatGPT will stop spreading that nonsense is if
       | there is a significant mass of humans talking online about the
       | lack of ZSTD support.
       | 
       | We actually have a robust solution for this exact problem now:
       | run the prompt through a coding agent of some sort (Claude Code,
       | Codex CLI, Cursor etc) that has access to the Swift compiler.
       | 
       | That way it can write code with the hallucinated COMPRESSION_ZSTD
       | thing in it, observe that it doesn't compile and iterate further
       | to figure out what _does_ work.
       | 
       | Or the simpler version of the above: LLM writes code. You try and
       | compile it. You get an error message and you paste that back into
       | the LLM and let it have another go. That's been the main way I've
       | worked with LLMs for almost three years now.
        
         | jpc0 wrote:
         | If that same intern, when asked something, responded that they
         | checked, gave you a link to a document they claim have the
         | proof / answer but does in fact no and continued to do that
         | they wouldn't be an intern very long. But somehow this is
         | acceptable behaviour for an AI?
         | 
         | I use AI for sure, but only on things that I can easily verify
         | is correct (run a test or some code ), because I have had the
         | AI give me functions in an API with links to online
         | documentation for those functions, the document exists, the
         | function is not in it, when called out instead of doing a basic
         | tool call the AI will double down that it is correct and you
         | the human are wrong. That would get an intern fired but here
         | you are standing on the interns side.
        
           | raincole wrote:
           | Wow... people unironically anthropomorphize AI to the point
           | that they expect AI to work exactly like an human intern,
           | otherwise it's unacceptable...
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | Because LLMs aren't human beings.
           | 
           | I wrote a note about that here:
           | https://simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/using-llms-for-
           | code/#s...
           | 
           | > Don't fall into the trap of anthropomorphizing LLMs and
           | assuming that failures which would discredit a human should
           | discredit the machine in the same way.
        
             | jpc0 wrote:
             | > And yeah, their confidence is frustrating. Treat them
             | like an over-confident twenty-something intern who doesn't
             | like to admit when they get stuff wrong.
             | 
             | I was explicitly calling out this comment, that intern
             | would get fired if when explicitly called out they not only
             | don't want to admit they are wrong but vehemently disagree.
             | 
             | The interaction was "Implement X", it gave an
             | implementation, I responded "function y does not exist use
             | a different method", it instead of following that
             | instruction gave me a link to the documentation for the
             | library that it claim's contains that function and told me
             | I am wrong.
             | 
             | I said the documentation it linked does not contain that
             | function and to do something different and yet it still
             | refused to follow instructions and pushed back.
             | 
             | At that point I "fired" it and wrote the code myself.
        
             | jpc0 wrote:
             | > Or the simpler version of the above: LLM writes code. You
             | try and compile it. You get an error message and you paste
             | that back into the LLM and let it have another go. That's
             | been the main way I've worked with LLMs for almost three
             | years now.
             | 
             | I'm going to comment here about this but it's a follow on
             | to the other comment, this is exactly the workflow I was
             | following. I had given it the compiler error and it blamed
             | an environment issue, I confirmed the environment is as it
             | claims it should be, it linked to documentation that
             | doesn't state what it claims is stated.
             | 
             | In a coding agent this would have been an endless feedback
             | loop that eats millions of tokens.
             | 
             | This is the reason why I do not use coding agents, I can
             | catch hallucinations and stop the feedback loop from ever
             | happening in the first place without needing to watch an AI
             | agent try to convince itself that it is correct and the
             | compiler must be wrong.
        
       | blizdiddy wrote:
       | Finding a useless way to use a tool is neither interesting or
       | novel. I hit my thumb with a hammer, useless tool.
        
       | zhivota wrote:
       | I call this genre of article "I'm too lazy to think about how to
       | deal with the fact that LLMs are sometimes wrong, especially when
       | they aren't using thinking and are given short, leading prompts."
       | 
       | Ok great! For those of us who aren't too lazy for it, LLMs are
       | providing a lot of value right now.
        
         | add-sub-mul-div wrote:
         | I'm not sure that the people who still prefer to do their own
         | work rather than circuitously delegate it are the ones that
         | seem lazy.
        
       | johnfn wrote:
       | I find it hard to empathize with these sorts of articles. I think
       | in, in the spate of GPT-5 related content recently, I've been
       | seeing a lot of articles that boil down to "I tried GPT-5 on a
       | single hard question, and it gave an answer. This proves that all
       | LLMs are useless." And I don't think I'm distorting the author's
       | viewpoint. He goes on to say "This concludes all the testing for
       | GPT5 I have to do" after conducting a single test.
       | 
       | This seems like particularly harsh criteria; what would happen if
       | I applied this to other tools?
       | 
       | - I used Typescript, but it missed a bug that crashed prod, so it
       | is "absolute horseshit"
       | 
       | - I used Rust, but one of my developers added an unsafe block, so
       | it's trash.
        
         | terminatornet wrote:
         | > I used Typescript...it is "absolute horseshit"
         | 
         | That's right
        
       | overgard wrote:
       | My issue with LLMs isnt really the tech itself. They're
       | occassionally useful, although HOW useful seems to depend on a
       | persons skillset.
       | 
       | My main beef with the AI hype is that it's allowing a lot of
       | idiots to significantly devalue our profession in a really
       | noxious and irritating way to people that generally don't
       | understand what we do but would like to pay us less or pay less
       | of us. I'm annoyed at other software developers that don't seem
       | to see how harmful this will be for us when the insane investment
       | bubble bursts and AI becomes a lot more expensive to use. We will
       | probably have lost a generation of junior developers who have
       | become dependent on a suddenly expensive tool. And execs will
       | just think the seniors need to pick up the slack. And
       | expectations on AI will be a lot higher when the subscription is
       | more like 200 or 2000 a month.
       | 
       | And that's just for coding! I'd be furious if I was an artist and
       | generative AI was being trained on my portfolio to plagiarize my
       | work. (Badly)
       | 
       | What I never see justified is why any of this is good for
       | society. At best it lets billionionaires save some money by
       | getting rid of jobs, or vibe coders pretend they can build a
       | product until they hit a wall where real understanding is
       | neccessary. If you follow the trail of who is supposed to benefit
       | from these things its not many of us. If AI were to disappear
       | today I don't think my life would be any worse.
        
       | viach wrote:
       | I think people often misread AGI as Artificial God Intelligence.
        
       | oidar wrote:
       | If you have an Apple docs mcp, it does let you know and offers
       | alternatives. So this is another "your holding it wrong" problem.
        
       | nojito wrote:
       | >Use your brains.
       | 
       | I love posts like these because it just reinforces that I made
       | the right decision in spending as much time as I do in getting
       | really really really good at using llms.
        
       | kentonv wrote:
       | Author is arguing:
       | 
       | * LLMs, when presented with a question to which they don't know
       | the answer, tend to make up a wrong answer rather than say they
       | don't know.
       | 
       | * Therefore, LLMs are useless.
       | 
       | Yes, LLMs do that, and it is a problem.
       | 
       | No, that does not make them useless. It's usually much easier to
       | check their answer than it would have been to search for an
       | answer yourself. If they are right, you saved time. If they are
       | wrong, at worst you wasted a couple minutes. But they are right
       | often enough that it can be worthwhile, especially if you have a
       | feel for what questions they are likely to know the answer to and
       | what questions they aren't.
        
       | prinny_ wrote:
       | The top comments are focusing on what "know" means in the context
       | of an LLM but I think that while it's an interesting discussion
       | it misses the point. Even if we agree that an LLM can "know"
       | things, the tech has been heavily advertised as nothing less that
       | transformative. If it can't help itself from inventing non
       | existent answers or count the number of "r"s in the word
       | blueberry (a test I tried myself the other day on my phone's
       | chat-gpt app, it said "three") it's not transformative.
        
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