[HN Gopher] Let's properly analyze an AI article for once
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Let's properly analyze an AI article for once
        
       Author : pabs3
       Score  : 190 points
       Date   : 2025-08-09 02:30 UTC (20 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (nibblestew.blogspot.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (nibblestew.blogspot.com)
        
       | righthand wrote:
       | This was excellent!
        
       | croes wrote:
       | The statistics part will also be relevant for the rest of Trump's
       | presidency
        
       | ma73me wrote:
       | I'll never judge an article by its HN header again
        
       | vunderba wrote:
       | Spot on critical analysis of the blog post "Developers
       | reinvented" by Github Thomas Dohmke which includes such quotes
       | as:
       | 
       |  _> Many Computer Science (CS) programs still center around
       | problems that AI can now solve competently._
       | 
       | Yeah. No they do not. Competent CS programs focus on fundamentals
       | not your ability to invert a binary tree on a whiteboard. [1]
       | 
       | Replacing linear algebra and discrete mathematics with courses
       | called "Baby's First LLM" and "Prompt Engineering for Hipster
       | Doofuses" is as vapid as proposing that CS should include an
       | entire course on how to use git.
       | 
       | [1] https://x.com/mxcl/status/608682016205344768
        
         | charcircuit wrote:
         | >not your ability to invert a binary tree on a whiteboard.
         | 
         | Knowing how to swap 2 variables and traverse data structures
         | are fundamentals.
        
           | kubb wrote:
           | I'm surprised that the creator of Homebrew didn't know how to
           | do that.
        
             | meindnoch wrote:
             | If you spend enough time with Homebrew, it's actually not
             | that surprising.
        
             | josephg wrote:
             | Of course, lots of people are employed despite giant holes
             | in their knowledge of CS fundamentals. There's more to
             | being an effective developer than having good fundamentals.
             | A lot more.
             | 
             | But there's still a lot of very important concepts in CS
             | that people should learn. Concepts like performance
             | engineering, security analysis, reliability, data
             | structures and algorithms. And enough knowledge of how the
             | layers below your program works that you can understand how
             | your program runs and write code which lives in harmony
             | with the system.
             | 
             | This knowledge is way more useful than a lot of people
             | claim. Especially in an era of chatgpt.
             | 
             | If you're weak on this stuff, you can easily be a liability
             | to your team. If your whole team is weak on this stuff,
             | you'll collectively write terrible software.
        
               | meindnoch wrote:
               | Also, what people fail to realize is that the whiteboard
               | coding interview was never about testing skills that are
               | necessary for your day to day work.
               | 
               | Most fighter pilots don't fly missions that require
               | superhuman reaction time or enduring 9.5g acceleration
               | either.
               | 
               | Whiteboard coding exercises are just a proxy for certain
               | thinking skills, a kind of je ne sais quoi that
               | successful engineers tend to have.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Alternatively, whiteboard coding exercises are a hazing
               | mechanism to weed out candidates who have certain forms
               | of anxiety or can't perform well under extreme scrutiny
               | and time pressure. Which could be valid selection
               | criteria for certain jobs. But let's be honest and admit
               | that whiteboard coding exercises aren't actually a proxy
               | for anything else, or at least we have no scientific
               | evidence on that point.
        
               | QuadmasterXLII wrote:
               | First, whiteboard interviews were a great selection
               | criteria for about 30 seconds before it became public
               | knowledge that being able to pass them was a ticket to a
               | google salary. Subsequently, they functioned literally at
               | all while under the pressure of literal billions of
               | people knowing that they were the ticket to a google
               | salary. A criteria surviving this second challenge is
               | extremely impressive.
               | 
               | To put it another way: I can hire based on open source
               | contributions instead of credentials and interview
               | performance. If google decided tomorrow to start hiring
               | based on open source contributions, then their new
               | criteria would leak on monday, and on tuesday the pull
               | requests queues of every major project would
               | simultaneously splatter like bugs on windshields.
        
             | UncleMeat wrote:
             | He wasn't actually asked that question, but just used it as
             | a stand-in for the entire category of interview questions.
        
           | funcDropShadow wrote:
           | The goal of teaching binary trees is not that you can write
           | binary trees in your sleep, the goal is that you train your
           | ability to derive algorithms and data structures. If you look
           | at what a world class soccer player does during training,
           | most of it will never be applied identically during games.
           | The same is true for university studies, if they focus on
           | fundamentals.
        
         | thrown-0825 wrote:
         | Computer Science in academia is pretty out of line with a lot
         | of skills that are actually used on a daily basis by
         | professional software developers.
         | 
         | You can teach fundamentals all day long, but on their first day
         | of work they are going to be asked adhere to some internal
         | corporate process that is so far removed from their academic
         | experience that they will feel like they should have just
         | taught themselves online.
        
           | meindnoch wrote:
           | >Computer Science in academia is pretty out of line with a
           | lot of skills that are actually used on a daily basis by
           | professional software developers.
           | 
           | 80% of software development boils down to:
           | 
           | 1. Get JSON(s) from API(s)
           | 
           | 2. Read some fields from each JSON
           | 
           | 3. Create a new JSON
           | 
           | 4. Send it to other API(s)
           | 
           | Eventually people stopped pretending that you need a CS
           | degree for this, and it spawned the coding bootcamp
           | phenomenon. Alas it was short-lived, because ZIRP was killed,
           | and as of late, we realized we don't even need _humans_ for
           | this kind of work!
        
             | thrown-0825 wrote:
             | And they were right.
             | 
             | We no longer hires junior engineers because it just wasn't
             | worth the time to train them anymore.
        
             | Esophagus4 wrote:
             | I'll challenge that assumption.
             | 
             | All of my rock star engineers have CS degrees OR are
             | absolute savants of computer science who taught themselves.
             | They solve problems, not just write CRUD apps.
             | 
             | I don't want people who only have surface level knowledge
             | of calling JSON APIs. They tend to be a serious drag on
             | team productivity, and high performers don't want to work
             | with them.
        
             | SilasX wrote:
             | I would also include:
             | 
             | 5. Debug why the API's don't behave as documented and
             | figure out a workaround.
        
             | astrobe_ wrote:
             | Academia has a lot to offer with regard to:
             | - fundamental principles and concepts, like paradigms,
             | SOLID, coupling, cohesion, etc. - Maybe design patterns too
             | - and when and how to apply them       - To paraphrase a
             | famous author, how to avoid making  "programming the act of
             | putting bugs in software"       - And since you can't
             | really avoid it, debugging techniques.
             | 
             | All of these require good logic and judgement - skills that
             | you are better off having when talking with an AI.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | If you really believe that then you must have minimal real
             | world experience outside of toy web applications. How much
             | JSON do you think there is in the flight control software
             | for an F-35?
        
           | crinkly wrote:
           | Depends what you do. The sudden large accumulation of layers
           | and corporate SaaS crap in the industry since about 2001
           | you're right on. But those of us a bit further down the stack
           | or before that, it's pretty useful still.
        
             | thrown-0825 wrote:
             | Absolutely, but we are a dying breed in the same way that
             | nobody really knows how to build nuclear power plants
             | anymore.
             | 
             | Most CS grads will end up in a position that has more in
             | common with being an electrician or plumber than an
             | electrical engineer, difference is that we can't really
             | automate installing wires and pipes to same degree we have
             | automated service integration and making api calls.
        
               | crinkly wrote:
               | Not a dying breed. There is just a relatively static
               | demand. Proportionally it looks worse because the rest of
               | the industry has grown massively.
               | 
               | Really the problem is there are too many CS grads. There
               | should be a software engineering degree.
        
               | thrown-0825 wrote:
               | Personally I am a fan of bootcamp grads for simple stuff
               | like FE.
               | 
               | They lack academic knowledge but understand the problem
               | domain and tools, and are generally more teachable with
               | lower salary expectations.
               | 
               | I would like to see more "trade schools" and its one of
               | my pet peeves when devs call themselves engineers despite
               | not being a licensed or regulated in any meaningful way.
        
               | bsenftner wrote:
               | Those bootcamps create assembly line capable people, and
               | nothing else. If your work is so static and unchanging
               | that you can use such people, great, for those people
               | doing that kind of limited scope work they are being used
               | and discarded with little to no economic ladder to better
               | their situation. It's exploitation of others, which is
               | commonplace today, but I'd try to do better. It's still a
               | poor way to treat others.
        
               | thrown-0825 wrote:
               | You just described people who go to bootcamps or trade
               | schools as "assembly line capable, and nothing else".
               | 
               | By your definition running a welding company is also
               | exploitive?
        
               | bsenftner wrote:
               | I don't see welding companies with a series of 8 hour
               | interviews where the welder is grilled on all manner of
               | welding edge cases they'll never see in the job, then
               | further evaluated for 'cultural fit', and then expected
               | to work 12-14 hour days - including weekends - when the
               | job listed no such hourly requirements.
        
               | thrown-0825 wrote:
               | Welding, machining, carpentry, plumbing, hvac etc are all
               | highly technical trades with a lot more certification and
               | regulatory oversight than the overwhelming majority of
               | software development careers.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | Eh, do you actually know anything about welding,
               | especially in safety critical applications? Thats not
               | even counting crazy stuff like welding in the nuclear
               | industry.
        
           | saagarjha wrote:
           | I don't get this viewpoint. Yes, of course when you start at
           | your job you will have to learn how JIRA works or how to
           | write a design doc. Obviously nobody is going to teach you
           | that in college. But nobody is going to teach you that online
           | either!
        
             | thrown-0825 wrote:
             | How about performing git bisect to identify when a
             | regression was introduced, or debugging a docker container
             | that is failing to start in your local environment, writing
             | some unit tests for a CI suite, merging a pull request that
             | has some conflicts, etc etc etc.
             | 
             | These a just a couple of examples of things that I see
             | juniors really struggle with that are day 1 basics of the
             | profession that are consistently missed by interview
             | processes that focus on academic knowledge.
             | 
             | People won't teach you how to solve these problems online,
             | but you will learn how to solve them while teaching
             | yourself.
        
               | saagarjha wrote:
               | Yes, and I did plenty of that during my university
               | education. Except Docker because at the time I refused to
               | use Docker.
        
               | thrown-0825 wrote:
               | Great, and if you got a job with us I would be having to
               | explain how docker works because you refused to learn it
               | for some reason.
               | 
               | Point is that what is deemed important in academic circle
               | is rarely important in practice, and when it is I find it
               | easier to explain a theory or algorithm than teach a
               | developer how to use an industry standard tool set.
               | 
               | We should be training devs like welders and plumbers
               | instead of like mathematicians because practically
               | speaking the vast majority of them will never use that
               | knowledge and develop an entirely new skill set the day
               | they graduate.
        
               | saagarjha wrote:
               | I use standard algorithms all the time. Sometimes I have
               | to come up with new ones. And that's not just when I'm
               | working on performance-sensitive roles.
               | 
               | Also, btw, I did eventually learn how to use Docker. I
               | did actually vaguely know how it worked for a while but I
               | didn't want Linux VM anywhere near my computer, but
               | eventually I capitulated provided I didn't have Linux VM
               | running all the time.
        
               | jrh3 wrote:
               | Ditto. I avoided Docker as long as possible and look
               | forward to the day it is replaced.
        
               | thunky wrote:
               | > I didn't want Linux VM anywhere near my computer
               | 
               | This is like taking auto mechanic classes and refusing to
               | touch a car because of the grease.
        
               | nilamo wrote:
               | Why are you against running a vm? And a superior OS in
               | the vm, to boot?
               | 
               | Your comment gives spooky vibes. Like, I'd expect you to
               | avoid pattern matching, because "nested ifs work fine".
        
               | lelanthran wrote:
               | IME it is far far easier to teach a CS graduate how to
               | use some software than to teach a user basic CS
               | principles.
               | 
               | Besides, at the rate of change we see in this industry,
               | focusing on producing users instead of developers will
               | make half the stuff outdated by the time the student
               | graduates.
               | 
               | I mean, okay, lets teach Jira. Then the industry switches
               | to assure develops.
               | 
               | That's the general problem with vocational training: it
               | ages much faster than academic stuff.
        
               | thrown-0825 wrote:
               | We have obviously had different experiences, but I would
               | much rather have a high level conversation on an abstract
               | academic topic like reinforcement learning, set theory
               | and how it applies to sql, merkle trees, cpu
               | architectures etc that a junior dev will be adjacent to
               | but not necessarily need to interact with vs something
               | like AWS IAM roles or the various gotcha's and foot guns
               | in CSS.
               | 
               | I agree that vocational knowledge decays faster, which is
               | why I would prefer stricter training and certification in
               | those areas vs something like building a compiler from
               | scratch in the your final year of undergrad based on a
               | textbook written by the professor 10 years ago.
        
               | mafuy wrote:
               | You're simply wrong about CS. CS is a science. You are
               | not looking for scientists, you are looking for
               | apprentices. Don't hire an architect to paint your wall.
               | Don't hire scientists to be code monkies. Universities
               | are not the right place to look at.
               | 
               | Except if you instead just want smart people, yea, they
               | tend to aggregate at unis. There, you can hire an athlete
               | to paint your wall, if that's what you need.
        
               | lelanthran wrote:
               | > How about performing git bisect to identify when a
               | regression was introduced, or debugging a docker
               | container that is failing to start in your local
               | environment, writing some unit tests for a CI suite,
               | merging a pull request that has some conflicts, etc etc
               | etc
               | 
               | That's called vocational training and isn't usually
               | taught as part of academic curricula.
               | 
               | If you want non-academic graduates you've got your pick.
               | 
               | Maybe having a technical addendum to academic curricula
               | that makes student work at the end of the studies a
               | criteria for graduation might help. That's how it is done
               | for doctors, lawyers and accountants after all. The
               | difference is that they graduate but can't practice until
               | they have completed training.
        
               | throwup238 wrote:
               | It's not vocational training, it's the equivalent to the
               | lab portions of physical science classes. We don't call
               | pipetting vocational training for biologists or titration
               | vocational for chemists, even though both will be doing a
               | lot of that in professional and research careers.
        
               | lelanthran wrote:
               | > It's not vocational training, it's the equivalent to
               | the lab portions of physical science classes. We don't
               | call pipetting vocational training for biologists or
               | titration vocational for chemists, even though both will
               | be doing a lot of that in professional and research
               | careers.
               | 
               | You're on the right path: learning how to use a specific
               | tool produced by a specific $Corp is _not_ vocational
               | training, it 's _end-user_ training.
               | 
               | Learning pipetting and titration is _very different_ from
               | learning $MegaCorps software tool that will be replaced
               | with something else in a few years.
               | 
               | Source: Me! I did undergrad in multiple different
               | subjects, _including_ chemistry, physics and biology.
               | 
               | Like I said, if you are looking for _end-users_ , you
               | don't have to search very hard. Universities should not
               | be focused on training more end-users. It's fine if
               | there's a half-credit or no-credit course somewhere on
               | "How to use $PRODUCT".
               | 
               | A better option would be, like I said, industrial
               | practice after graduation, before getting a license to
               | practice, but that's _way_ too professional for a field
               | that seriously and unironically came up with
               | SpaghettiCodeAsAFramework.
        
               | throwup238 wrote:
               | I'm not talking about SAP or Oracle databases or Matlab,
               | but tools that are as fundamental to the application of
               | computer science in industry as titration is to
               | professional chemists.
               | 
               | There aren't even that many of them: git, terminals and
               | bash scripting, IDEs, and maybe a database. Vocational
               | training would be stuff like managing VMs/cloud
               | infrastructure, devops, testing, and so on that would be
               | taught as dedicated classes.
               | 
               | The important thing is that these aren't skills with a
               | dedicated class but skills a student should pick up and
               | masters across half a dozen classes with CS departments
               | that coordinate their choice of tooling.
        
               | thrown-0825 wrote:
               | I agree with you.
               | 
               | SSH and even just managing your dev env in a sane manner
               | are skills that I have to literally hand hold people
               | through on a regular basis and would fully expect people
               | to have coming out of a 4 year degree.
               | 
               | Git and basic SQL are next on the list.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Your expectations are completely irrational.
        
               | mafuy wrote:
               | SSH is absolutely not a core CS skill. I use it daily,
               | and I think students should pick it up somewhere along
               | the line. But it still is a mere tool, not a concept that
               | should be taught in mandatory classes. Same goes for
               | latex and git and C.
               | 
               | All of that is, or should be, vocational, because anyone
               | can learn it given some time. Universities are about the
               | _hard_ stuff that is difficult to get right at even a
               | mediocre level.
               | 
               | If your company requires it, include it in your regular
               | training program. Don't dilute the material because you
               | don't want to be bothered. If you think people spend too
               | much time on hard stuff, hire BSc instead of MSc.
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | When learning how to git bisect, you're learning two
               | things:
               | 
               | 1. the specifics of how to use git (*) to carry out a
               | task
               | 
               | 2. the conceptual underpinnings of the task, which would
               | exist whether you use git or perforce or bitwarden or any
               | future RCS.
               | 
               | Being overly focused on either #1 or #2 is a mistake.
               | It's not good understanding the task if you don't know
               | how to use the tools you have right now to carry it out
               | (or what available tools are appropriate). It's not good
               | knowing how to run the tools if you don't understand what
               | you're actually doing. The two go hand-in-hand.
               | 
               | (*) not exactly the product of a mega-corp
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | If they learned how binary search works in university,
               | they shouldn't have difficulty to grasp what _git bisect_
               | does. So that seems like a bad example.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Writing a design document isn't really part of computer
             | science (a branch of applied math). But most colleges also
             | have some sort of project based software _engineering_
             | courses that do teach more practical skills to students who
             | want to work in industry.
        
           | janalsncm wrote:
           | A weaker version of your argument that might be more popular
           | here involves math requirements.
           | 
           | I had to take calculus and while I think it's good at
           | teaching problem solving, that's probably the best thing I
           | can say about it. Statistics, which was not required, would
           | also check that box and is far more applicable on a regular
           | basis.
           | 
           | Yes calculus is involved in machine learning research that
           | some PhDs will do, but heck, so is statistics.
        
             | wizzwizz4 wrote:
             | Except statistics _requires_ calculus - otherwise it makes
             | no sense, and you can 't determine when the tools in the
             | toolbox are applicable.
        
             | crinkly wrote:
             | Strangely I see a lot of people hitting things with the
             | brute force hammer quite regularly rather than using
             | calculus.
             | 
             | Some of our financial modelling stuff was CPU bound and
             | took seconds because someone couldn't be bothered or didn't
             | know how to work out an integral.
        
             | RugnirViking wrote:
             | Calculus is used in basically everything hard or
             | worthwhile. Its like the most useful part of maths to
             | learn, along with linear algebra, for doing real world
             | stuff.
             | 
             | I've personally used it in my career for machine learning,
             | non ml image processing, robot control, other kinds of
             | control, animations, movement in games, statistics,
             | physics, financial modelling, and more.
        
           | bregma wrote:
           | Computer programming is to computer science as working a cash
           | register is to economics.
        
             | Der_Einzige wrote:
             | If this is true than I hope that AI kills both computer
             | programming and computer science as fast as possible.
             | 
             | It's not. If you're a computer scientist who's not coding,
             | you are a bad computer scientist. "Those who cannot do,
             | teach"
        
               | deepburner wrote:
               | I dont know where that "Those who cannot do, teach"
               | bullshit came from but it's absolute nonsense someone
               | made up to dunk on teachers.
               | 
               | It doesnt even make sense in your post because
               | "programming" isn't "doing computer science". You're not
               | better than a teacher in any notion because you asked
               | chatgpt to generate some slop.
        
               | rindalir wrote:
               | Professor Felleisen, is that you?
        
               | mafuy wrote:
               | Sorry but that's just nonsense. "Programming" has for a
               | long time been a low level job. In Germany, it is taught
               | as an apprentice level program. CS in practical
               | universities will instead, or rather on top, teach
               | program architecture and planning. At theory focussed
               | universities, you'll learn how an LLM actually works, how
               | to design high or low level protocols, how to design a
               | new algorithm suited to your environment, etc. The
               | programming required for these can be done for personal
               | recreation, be outsourced, or replaced with an existing
               | library as desired.
        
             | evantbyrne wrote:
             | People love to make these weirdly diminutive comments about
             | programmers, precisely because programmers are crushing it.
             | Meanwhile most of the economy has been diverted to
             | attempting to replicate the abilities of even just an
             | entry-level drone who copy/pastes off Medium articles,
             | which itself is heralded as a miracle.
        
             | recipe19 wrote:
             | I've heard that a number of times, but the vast majority of
             | people who get into CS do it because they want a high-
             | paying tech job, for which most of what they'll learn at
             | the university is borderline useless (and to the extent
             | that cutting-edge CS research happens, the academia is
             | nowadays usually trailing the industry).
             | 
             | The problem, arguably, is that we don't have reputable
             | trade schools that would actually teach what the students
             | need. But if that changes, I think some CS departments will
             | be in for a rude awakening.
        
               | wavemode wrote:
               | There is such a thing as a Software Engineering degree.
               | 
               | The fact that people keep buying the wrong product
               | (Computer Science degrees) and universities keep selling
               | it, doesn't mean that there's something wrong with
               | Computer Science.
        
           | skywhopper wrote:
           | Computer science is not the same thing as software
           | development.
        
         | Gigachad wrote:
         | Schools still make you manually understand math even though
         | calculators have been perfect for decades. Because it turns out
         | having some magic machine spit out an answer you can't
         | understand isn't good and you'll have no ability to understand
         | when and why the answer is incorrect.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | I think until the third year of high school you should do
           | without a calculator. There really is no substitute for being
           | able to do basic math in your head. It also helps you to
           | later on spot order of magnitude errors and such, as well as
           | to do good first order of approximation estimates.
        
             | dleeftink wrote:
             | I'm a bit different then, maths only started to make sense
             | well after picking up a calculator; Wolfram notebooks,
             | Excel and SQL were much easier for me to grok than
             | attempting the equivalent by heart/head/hand.
             | 
             | Nowadays, math concepts or papers only makes sense when I
             | can properly implement them as query, it's somehow a basic
             | translation step I need.
        
             | wrs wrote:
             | In my ninth grade physics class we had to use a slide rule
             | to do calculations for the first three months to help
             | develop that intuition for orders of magnitude. Also
             | because our teacher was just tired of people reporting
             | results to nine significant figures for measurements they
             | made with a meter stick.
        
           | xg15 wrote:
           | I found Factorio being a good paradigm for that. The core
           | game loop is essentially: "Do a task manually, then automate
           | it; then do a higher-level task manually that only became
           | feasible through the automation; then automate _that_ as
           | well, etc etc ".
           | 
           | But throughout the game, you often drop back down into the
           | lower level tasks, e.g. to understand problems or change the
           | workflow. So in the end an understanding of the entire
           | "stack" of tasks on different abstraction levels is necessary
           | to make progress.
           | 
           | This always felt like a good analogy to programming, or
           | really scientific knowledge in general.
        
             | internet_points wrote:
             | Are there any games that teach automation like Factorio but
             | that don't have that depressive dystopian magnasanti feel?
        
               | jon_richards wrote:
               | Bombe is great. You might like the zactronics games. And
               | there are tons of factory games now if you want factorio
               | with different window dressing.
        
               | mock-possum wrote:
               | Satisfactory?
               | 
               | Or for a different take, magnum opus?
        
               | drdrey wrote:
               | Dyson Sphere Program and a lot of zachtronics games do
               | that very well
        
               | ThrowawayR2 wrote:
               | Perhaps one of the successors to the original Tekkit mod
               | for Minecraft, like Tekkit SMP? It's one of the Minecraft
               | mods that inspired Factorio.
        
               | felixhummel wrote:
               | Shapez
        
               | pavel_lishin wrote:
               | Shapez 2 (and I guess Shapez 1) both feel cartoony and
               | abstract enough that it doesn't make you feel like you're
               | polluting a whole planet and killing the wildlife.
               | 
               | But that very same cartooniness also made it less
               | interesting to me; the things you're producing are just
               | too arbitrary.
        
               | navane wrote:
               | Solving a situation, moving up an abstraction layer,
               | solving that, etc is inherently distopian. That's how we
               | got here.
        
               | xg15 wrote:
               | Huh? That seems just like the basic pattern of any kind
               | of civilization or even just personal learning. How would
               | you do it otherwise?
               | 
               | Unless you mean to imply that civilization itself is
               | already dystopian and we should go back to hunting and
               | gathering?
        
           | mafuy wrote:
           | I'll just leave this here:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUpZg-Ua5ao
        
         | fspeech wrote:
         | Unfortunately the writer's own understanding of statistics is
         | flawed. For example sample size has not much to do with
         | population size but a lot to do with effect size. For example
         | to demonstrate that a chemical is fatal often a sample size of
         | 1 is sufficient. Population comes into play if there is a large
         | variance of the effect relative to the average size of the
         | effect. You need a good statistical sampling of the population
         | to study the variance but even here sample size if not
         | determined by population size.
        
       | sixhobbits wrote:
       | > The sample size is 22. According to this sample size calculator
       | I found, a required sample size for just one thousand people
       | would be 278
       | 
       | I'm all for criticizing a lack of scientific rigor, but this bit
       | pretty clearly shows that the author knows even less about sample
       | sizes than the GitHub guy, so it seems a bit pot calling the
       | kettle black. You certainly don't need to sample more than 25% of
       | any population in order to draw statistical information from it.
       | 
       | The bit about running the study multiple times also seems kinda
       | random.
       | 
       | I'm sure this study of 22 people has a lot of room for criticism
       | but this criticism seems more ranty than 'proper analysis' to me.
        
         | foma-roje wrote:
         | > You certainly don't need to sample more than 25% of any
         | population in order to draw statistical information from it.
         | 
         | Certainly? Now, who is ranting?
        
           | brabel wrote:
           | It's a basic property of statistics. You need an extremely
           | varied population to need a sample of 25%, and almost no
           | human population is that varied in practice. Humans are
           | actually very uniform in fact.
        
         | astrobe_ wrote:
         | > The bit about running the study multiple times also seems
         | kinda random.
         | 
         | Reproducibility? But knowing it comes from the CEO of Github,
         | who has vested interests in that matter because AI is one of
         | the things that will allow to maintain Github's position on the
         | market (or increase revenue of their paid plans, once everyone
         | is hooked on vibe coding etc.), anyone would anyway take it
         | with a grain of salt. It's like studies funded by big pharma.
        
       | pcwelder wrote:
       | >I found, a required sample size for just one thousand people
       | would be 278
       | 
       | It's interesting to note that for a billion people this number
       | changes to a whopping ... 385. Doesn't change much.
       | 
       | I was curious, with 22 sample size (assuming unbiased sample,
       | yada yada), while estimating the proportion of people satisfying
       | a criteria, the margin of error is 22%.
       | 
       | While bad, if done properly, it may still be insightful.
        
         | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
         | > This helps explain the - perhaps unintuitive at first -
         | observation that many of the developers we interviewed were
         | paying for top-tier subscriptions.
         | 
         | It doesn't sound like an unbiased sample.
        
         | ethan_smith wrote:
         | Sample size requirements are primarily determined by desired
         | confidence level and margin of error rather than population
         | size, which explains why the required sample barely changes
         | between 1,000 and 1 billion people.
        
       | NoahZuniga wrote:
       | It's a bit annoying that this article on AI is hallucinating
       | itself:
       | 
       | > To add insult to injury, the image seems to have been created
       | with the Studio Ghibli image generator, which Hayao Miyazaki
       | described as an abomination on art itself.
       | 
       | He never said this. This is just false, and it seems like the
       | author didn't even fact check if Hayao Miyazaki ever said this.
        
         | tough wrote:
         | Right it was an out of context presentation of their own
         | company and some very rough AI generated content and years ago
         | before the existence of LLMs
         | 
         | but yeah sensationalism and all and people don't do research so
         | unless you remember well
         | 
         | and also lost in translation from Japanese to English, the work
         | sampled by their engineers, it depicted some kinda of zombie
         | like pictures in a very rough form, thus the -insult to life-
         | as in literally
        
         | meindnoch wrote:
         | Context: https://youtu.be/ngZ0K3lWKRc
         | 
         | Miyazaki is repulsed by an AI-trained zombie animation which
         | reminded him of a friend with disabilities. So the oft quoted
         | part is about that zombie animation.
         | 
         | When he the team tells him that they want to build a machine
         | that can draw pictures like humans do, he doesn't say anything
         | just stares.
        
       | vemv wrote:
       | > Said person does not give a shit about whether things are
       | correct or could even work, as long as they look "somewhat
       | plausible".
       | 
       | Spot on, I think this every time I see AI art on my Linkedin
       | feed.
        
         | Gigachad wrote:
         | I've become super sensitive to spotting it now. When I see a
         | restaurant using AI food pictures I don't want to eat there.
         | Why would I want to do business with people who are so
         | dishonest to lie about the basics?
        
           | thrown-0825 wrote:
           | using food pics as an example is hilarious, food photos in
           | advertising have been "faked" for about as long as
           | photography has existed
        
             | Gigachad wrote:
             | Sure, they went through a long process of dressing them up
             | as nice as possible. But they were still just ideal
             | versions of the thing you actually receive. While the AI
             | food looks pretty much nothing like what the restaurant is
             | actually making.
             | 
             | And outside of mega chains like McDonalds, most restaurants
             | used fully real images.
        
               | thrown-0825 wrote:
               | This is provably false.
               | 
               | There is a large industry based around faking food, you
               | can watch some pretty interesting videos on the process
               | and you will quickly find that they rarely use anything
               | resembling the actual food you will be eating.
               | 
               | Japan is an extreme example, but there they literally use
               | wax models to advertise their food.
        
               | Gigachad wrote:
               | Those fake food models are still made to look just like
               | the actual meal. I don't know if you've looked at any of
               | these AI food pictures but they look nothing like the end
               | result. And they are also signalling low effort and low
               | initial investment unlike commissioning custom models of
               | ramen bowls.
        
               | bmicraft wrote:
               | I've been to plenty of local joints where photos clearly
               | a) weren't taken by them, and b) didn't at all match the
               | food. Still delicious food for a good price, but the
               | picture is more a vague idea of what it could look like
               | if you payed 3x as much somewhere else. It's been that
               | way for as long as I can remember.
        
             | bevr1337 wrote:
             | Yes and no. Magazines, newspapers, highly profitable
             | restaurants, and professional publications employ food
             | photography. The local greasy spoon did not. Now instead of
             | sloppy burgers and pizza pics, I get weird AI blobs of
             | pepperoni. (Real example.)
             | 
             | Dressing up a pizza so it photographs well is different
             | than an AI generated pizza. Maybe I cannot perfectly
             | articulate that, but I'm confident
        
         | pacifika wrote:
         | Isn't this just the digital version of hand waving / guesswork?
         | People not checking assumptions have long since been a leading
         | cause of weak software delivery.
        
       | bgwalter wrote:
       | "AI" could certainly replace Dohmke. It excels at writing such
       | meaningless articles.
        
       | rsynnott wrote:
       | > Said person does not give a shit about whether things are
       | correct or could even work, as long as they look "somewhat
       | plausible".
       | 
       | This seems to be the fundamental guiding ideology of LLM
       | boosterism; the output doesn't actually _really_ matter, as long
       | as there's lots of it. It's a truly baffling attitude.
        
         | Gigachad wrote:
         | They always market the % of lines generated by AI. But if you
         | are forced to use a tool that constantly inserts generations,
         | that number is always going to be high even if the actual
         | benefit is nil or negative.
         | 
         | If the AI tool generates a 30 line function which doesn't work.
         | And you spend time testing and modifying the 3 lines of broken
         | logic. The vast majority of the code was AI generated even if
         | it didn't save you any time.
        
           | diggan wrote:
           | > They always market the % of lines generated by AI
           | 
           | That's crazy, should really be the opposite. If someone
           | releases weights that promises "X% less lines generated
           | compared to Y", I'd jump on that in an instant, more LLMs are
           | way too verbose by default. Some are really hard to even use
           | prompts to get them to be more concise (looking at you,
           | various Google models)
        
             | 986aignan wrote:
             | It is possible to take this too far, though - consider the
             | OpenAI IMO proofs[1], for instance, and compare them to
             | Gemini's.[2]
             | 
             | [1] https://github.com/aw31/openai-imo-2025-proofs
             | 
             | [2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.15855 Appendix A
        
         | thrown-0825 wrote:
         | All of the crypto grifters have shifted to AI.
         | 
         | Fundamentals don't matter anymore, just say whatever you need
         | to say to secure the next round of funding.
        
           | bsenftner wrote:
           | They never mattered, at least a long as you've been alive.
           | The "Soviet statistics" discussion at the start of the
           | article was an amazing example of Western capitalistic
           | propaganda, because the same nonsense with statistics is also
           | out of control in the West, just not so mind numbingly
           | obvious. The USA is the king of propaganda, far in advance of
           | all rivals.
        
           | exq wrote:
           | All of the finance grifters have shifted to tech.
        
         | tempodox wrote:
         | And yet this fine example of a used car salesman is being
         | rewarded by everyone and their dog hosting their stuff on
         | GitHub, feeding the Copilot machinery with their work for free,
         | so it can be sold back to them.
        
         | kibwen wrote:
         | _> It 's a truly baffling attitude._
         | 
         | I wish, but no, it's not baffling. We live in a post-truth
         | society, and this is the sort of fundamental nihilism that
         | naturally results.
        
           | CoastalCoder wrote:
           | I agree that it fits in with a certain trope. But do people
           | really believe that?
           | 
           | What I mean is:
           | 
           | Some people recognize that there are circumstances where the
           | _social aspects of agreement_ seem to be the dominant
           | concern, e.g. when the goal is to rally votes. The cynical
           | view of  "good beliefs" in that scenario is group cohesion,
           | rather than correspondence with objective reality.
           | 
           | But most everyone would agree that there are situations where
           | correlation with objective reality is the main concern. E.g.,
           | when someone is designing and building the bridge they cross
           | every day.
        
           | xpe wrote:
           | > We live in a post-truth society
           | 
           | Oversimplified to an awful degree. There is a _lot_ of
           | variation between people, cultures, even countries.
        
         | heresie-dabord wrote:
         | > the fundamental guiding ideology of LLM boosterism
         | 
         | It's the same as the ideology of FOMO Capitalism:
         | 
         | = The billionaire arseholes are saying it, it must be true
         | 
         | = Stock valuations are in the trillions, there must be enormous
         | value
         | 
         | = The stock market is doing so well, your concerns about
         | fundamental social-democratic principles are unpatriotic
         | 
         | = You need to climb aboard or you will lose even worse than you
         | lost in the _crypto-currency hornswoggle_
        
         | ThrowawayR2 wrote:
         | It's a perfectly understandable attitude: " _Get me a fat
         | paycheck with the least effort possible._ " The longer term
         | problem is that those who see the most benefit in productivity
         | from LLMs are also the ones weak enough to be most easily
         | replaced by LLMs entirely.
        
       | crinkly wrote:
       | Professional statistician here. Not that I get to do any of that
       | these days, bar read Significance magazine and get angry
       | occasionally.
       | 
       | Looking at the original blog post, it's marketing copy so there's
       | no point in even reading it. The conclusion is in the headline
       | and the methodology is starting with what you want to say and
       | working back to supporting information. If it was in a more
       | academic setting it would be the equivalent of doing a meta-
       | analysis and p-hacking your way to the pre-defined conclusion you
       | wanted.
       | 
       | Applying any kind of rigour to it is pointless but thanks for the
       | effort.
        
       | nhinck3 wrote:
       | This isn't the first time Github (or it's CEO) has produced a
       | completely garbage article about the wonders of AI and it won't
       | be the last.
        
       | skywhopper wrote:
       | " It was reposted with various clickbait headings like GitHub CEO
       | Thomas Dohmke Warns Developers: 'Either Embrace AI or Get Out of
       | This Career' "
       | 
       | Is it clickbait if it's literally quoting the author? I mean,
       | yes, it was clickbait by Thomas Dohmke, but not by the source
       | that used that headline.
        
         | saulpw wrote:
         | Apparently it's not a quote by the author, but a participant.
        
       | quantum_state wrote:
       | if history is of reference, vibe coding would turn out to be the
       | most effective tool to produce technical debt ...
        
         | tempodox wrote:
         | If history is any indication, too few will care to make a
         | difference.
        
           | RugnirViking wrote:
           | A near insurmountable amount of problems and technical debt
           | are due to be created in problems teams. Sounds like a great
           | time to get into consulting. It's like knowing that y2k is
           | coming up ahead of time. Learn your debuggers and your slide
           | decks folks
        
           | jmull wrote:
           | Technical debt will have a strong negative impact on a
           | project/product over time if left unresolved (if it doesn't,
           | it probably isn't really something we should call technical
           | debt).
           | 
           | That is, technical debt matters whether anyone cares about it
           | or not.
        
             | righthand wrote:
             | As a junior engineer I don't care about technical debt and
             | instead will push that we should rewrite the app so the new
             | wave of employees can understand it.
             | 
             | Convincing my manager and leadership of this is 100x easier
             | with generated code. I get approval and generate a new
             | stack of tech debt that I try to pass to the next wave of
             | employees.
        
       | bsenftner wrote:
       | This analysis is not complete, it needs to continue with an
       | analysis of how many people, and critically how many business
       | owners, believe the lies and non-truths propagandized by that
       | article and the entire marketing push of LLMs.
       | 
       | That article is not for developers, it's for the business owner,
       | their management, and the investor class. If they believe it,
       | they will try to enforce it.
       | 
       | This is serious, destroy our industry type of idiot logic.
        
       | overgard wrote:
       | One thing that seems to always get lost in the AI hype cycle is
       | actually screening articles by the source. Maybe it's just
       | because in this age of social media we don't have much in the way
       | of journalism. I have zero interest in what Sam Altman, Dario
       | Amodei, Thomas Dohmke, etc. have to say because they obviously
       | want to sell something.
        
       | card_zero wrote:
       | The Miyazaki quote get taken out of context and altered. It was
       | "an insult to life itself", not "an abomination on art itself",
       | and the context was creepy AI animations of zombies. He said that
       | he won't use the technology, but the implied reason was because
       | he saw a crass demo. "Whoever creates this stuff has no idea what
       | pain is." https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Hayao_Miyazaki
        
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