[HN Gopher] Prediction markets create harmful outcomes: a case s...
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       Prediction markets create harmful outcomes: a case study
        
       Author : Zipzip
       Score  : 10 points
       Date   : 2025-08-05 17:56 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (bobjacobs.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (bobjacobs.substack.com)
        
       | Zipzip wrote:
       | The forecasting community often promotes prediction markets as
       | information aggregation tools, but sports betting provides a
       | real-world test case for their claimed benefits vs. actual risks.
       | As a concrete example of what can go wrong: NBA player Jontay
       | Porter was banned for life after deliberately underperforming in
       | games where he and associates had bet on his poor performance.
       | He'd grab a few rebounds then fake an injury to stay under
       | betting thresholds, profiting from markets on his own stats. This
       | isn't isolated - similar manipulation scandals now exist across
       | tennis, football, rugby, cricket, and other sports. The incentive
       | structure is clear: participants don't just predict outcomes,
       | they can influence them. Beyond direct manipulation, prediction
       | markets also incentivize misinformation campaigns. Buy contracts
       | cheap, spread convincing rumors to move market prices, then sell
       | at profit.
        
         | Flimm wrote:
         | No AI, please
        
       | SilverElfin wrote:
       | What makes them fundamentally different from the stock market?
        
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       (page generated 2025-08-05 23:02 UTC)