[HN Gopher] How to increase your surface area for luck
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How to increase your surface area for luck
Author : jger15
Score : 137 points
Date : 2025-07-23 18:55 UTC (4 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (usefulfictions.substack.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (usefulfictions.substack.com)
| swyx wrote:
| her suggestions
|
| - Operate from a place of genuine curiosity
|
| - Assume you're always auditioning for a bigger role
|
| - Give before you take
|
| - Air your weirdness
|
| - Host events
|
| - A period of lostness is a part of it
|
| i think some novel points (host events is good, i agree) but also
| the rest of this is fuzzy and unorganized. you can spend a lot of
| effort accumulating microlucks but not get anywhere and burn out
| completely and early.
|
| my version: https://swyx.io/create-luck
|
| basically classic advice is do more x talk more about what you do
| = surface area
|
| can improve that by pursuing authentic curiosity as TFA suggests
|
| but then i add in an element of strategic thinking - go to where
| luck is more likely to occur.
| dublinben wrote:
| If everyone is hosting events, who will attend them?
| kosmavision wrote:
| People who haven't read the book I suppose.
| swyx wrote:
| ai, of course
| evrimoztamur wrote:
| We would still be cutting hair even if everybody was a
| hairdresser.
| TideAd wrote:
| This would be a great problem to have. Most scenes don't have
| enough event hosts.
| pessimizer wrote:
| > https://swyx.io/create-luck
|
| Thanks, really enjoyed this.
| foota wrote:
| I've always felt that a key part of my success comes from an
| intense curiosity. The alternative of course is to have won the
| birthright lottery for generations in a row, but unfortunately
| I'm not that lucky.
| chankstein38 wrote:
| This is my struggle. I'm intensely curious but have no prior
| super successes in my lineage so I still feel like I've only
| gotten so far and feel like I'm kind of stuck because I can't
| leave the job that pays my bills. I also wish I naturally
| wanted to broadly share my curious deep-dives but I can't find
| a format that wouldn't take away from the enjoyment of pursuing
| them.
| kulahan wrote:
| Curiosity is the opposite of fear, so this probably played a
| big part in you feeling comfortable enough to seize your
| opportunities when you saw them.
| chankstein38 wrote:
| This reads like every single self-help book ever. "Grow and
| cultivate your network (and make sure you're genuine), dress for
| the job you want (or act like the job you want), other generic
| stuff about networking."
|
| I don't know, I don't see an inherent issue with this, I think
| there's value in some things said here but I don't see a lot of
| value in "going out and meeting more than 1-2 people per week" or
| whatever. It feels like one of those things you read and get
| excited about then have no way to act because "Oh yeah let me
| just go meet people! At ... walmart maybe?"
| swyx wrote:
| hosting events (people come to you on your terms) > going to
| events (others)
| RicoElectrico wrote:
| For some reason many people find it acceptable to cancel
| their plans last minute just because.
|
| Hell is (trying to herd) other people.
| z_open wrote:
| Yeah I have always wondered about the success rate for self
| help books. Seems like the people who need it have an inherent
| problem using it.
| tornadofart wrote:
| Fermats last theorem was notoriously proved by going to
| parties, socializing and making smalltalk /s
| HPsquared wrote:
| People only knew about the theorem and tried to solve it
| because a lot of people have already gossiped about it: "Oh
| do you remember that unsolved theorem? Oh what a story!"
| rezz wrote:
| Last week I entered the elevator in my apartment building and
| there were two women who started laughing and proclaimed
| "whoops we didn't hit L". I immediately replied "if that's the
| worst thing that happens to you today you're doing alright".
| Followed by them replying "or it's the beginning of a Dateline
| tragedy".
|
| We all had a good laugh then she introduced herself as the
| mother of the other woman who happened to be very attractive.
| We continued chatting and exchanged contact info.
|
| I'm not sure anything will come of it but I do know that I had
| a much more pleasant and serendipitous elevator experience
| because instead of just smiling after they admitted their
| mistake, I threw out a silly reply which turned into what it
| did.
| hibikir wrote:
| One of my biggest issues with American suburbia and car
| dependence is the much smaller percentage of reasonable
| opportunities for serendipity vs my old Spanish hometown.
| udkl wrote:
| vs in denser cities too .... Cities in India in my case
| swyx wrote:
| are you going to ask the daughter out? we're invested in the
| story now
| SCUSKU wrote:
| HN was probably the last place I'd expected to see a
| romance novella, but that makes it all the more intriguing.
| I hope OP asks the daughter out.
| rezz wrote:
| The building is hosting a party tomorrow so I was banking
| on a chance encounter there, but if not I think I'm going
| to have to.
| grillitob wrote:
| I think I am going to activate notifications from here
| just to receive the outcome of this story.
| Projectiboga wrote:
| This is for you and everyone reading, focus on making a
| friend first, not saying take it slow. If love blossoms
| great but if not maybe one of you two can meet someone
| via the friendship. I met my wife via a woman I met at a
| party. We went out a few times without any chemistry but
| I went to the beach w her and some friends and have been
| w my wife now 28 years. The rule for dating should be
| like camping "leave it (them) better than you found it
| (them)".
| swyx wrote:
| or it can just be a casual relationship, not everything
| needs to be wife goals maximum stakes all the time
| grillitob wrote:
| I think a latent space episode dedicated to luck, love and
| LLM could be well received.
| swyx wrote:
| thanks! we've tried to do an ai + dating episode but
| havent really found the right angle. i think an
| alternative to status quo is desperately needed for the
| sake of human population but also economy
| grillitob wrote:
| As someone from Spain, I asked an LLM about the L button and
| the Dateline tragedy just to assess how witty the situation
| was, it seems shared culture played big here. Also, I looked
| up about the serendipity reference, and there is a love film
| of 2001 in which elevator plays a romantic role. In my mostly
| scientific life L button, Dateline and serendipity has
| different meaning, furthermore luck and romance occupy
| infinitesimal space. To stay on topic, I really hope you luck
| and romance.
| wslh wrote:
| Yes, it is basically an elevator pitch!
|
| Returning to the main topic: the problem with networking is
| that the scale of sellers is much greater than the buyers,
| and those networks have hierarchies difficult to penetrate.
| Norcim133 wrote:
| It is a fair point.
|
| But I found this article landed different than most self-help.
| It spoke in terms of _mindsets_ one can adopt to do the things
| you mentioned.
|
| And it made those mindsets compact/memorable so I'm more likely
| to use them.
| celticninja wrote:
| This should just boil down to "say yes" to invites
| ryandrake wrote:
| > This reads like every single self-help book ever.
|
| And every "business success" book ever. They're all just
| Survivor Bias. Have 1,024 people flip a coin 10 times, find the
| guy who flipped heads 10 times in a row, and have him write a
| book about what it takes to be a master coin flipper.
| ipaddr wrote:
| He/she probably has a technique. Life isn't a static
| probability chart. Coins have three sides in 3d space and
| will land on its side once in awhile. People learn how to
| toss a coin to get a certain result.
| emptybits wrote:
| Fortis fortuna adiuvat. Fortune favours the bold. Just do it.
|
| Take those risky leaps but I'd add that "luck" also favours the
| well-prepared.
| throwaway81523 wrote:
| If it has a high chance of success and not much downside to
| failure, it wasn't much of a risk then, was it.
| emptybits wrote:
| I agree. Risks are often given too much weight in our
| imaginations. We psych ourselves out. Just do it. :-)
|
| Risks that are imaginary can be real psychological barriers,
| fear-inducing, and life-limiting. So making those leaps is
| important, don't you think?
| sschnei8 wrote:
| Another great way to increase your surface area for luck is being
| born in a first world country with access to a computer. I hear
| that has a good success rate!
| kulahan wrote:
| Being lucky once does not make you lucky later
| gcheong wrote:
| No, but it can set the stage for being lucky later on. Warren
| Buffet calls it winning the ovarian lottery.
|
| https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/warren-buffett-says-the-
| key-...
| kulahan wrote:
| Well no, because again, luck is just about seizing
| opportunities, so it's all relative. Someone lucky in
| America may not fare well in Cambodia and vice-versa.
| ipaddr wrote:
| Or being born to a King with great riches.
| adamgordonbell wrote:
| "Air your weirdness" is great advice. It's framed here as "start
| a blog," which can feel trite, but the larger point is powerful:
| don't hide what makes you different.
|
| I spent years smoothing out my quirks until I realized those
| quirks are what people find compelling. Ironically, aspiring
| influencers sometimes fake eccentricity. Think "Liver King", when
| genuine oddity is far more interesting.
| paulryanrogers wrote:
| Liver King doesn't seem to offer a lot of usable and positive
| lessons. Being weird and toxic is a well trodden path.
| markus_zhang wrote:
| My opinion is success is difficult to copy and luck plays a huge
| part.
|
| A better way is to observe the people who failed and failed
| miserably, and learn from their failures. My model of the world
| is that, for ordinary people, you are going to be exposed to some
| opportunities to succeed from time to time, but in a random
| fashion. You only need to catch one or two to be successful. So
| the key is NOT to maximize your success rate, but to make sure
| you never fell into a hole you cannot climb back, and prepare for
| the next opportunity.
|
| But so far I have not seen any serious conference that focuses on
| failures. Everyone wants to learn from the winners. I'd hold a
| losers conference if I got the time.
| jonfromsf wrote:
| You might like FailCon. https://thefailcon.com/
| Horffupolde wrote:
| It's better not to lose than to win. Life is non-Ergodic.
| billy99k wrote:
| Suceess always seems random, but it really isn't. It involves
| about as much luck as anything in life.
|
| As an example, if you studied for an exam and did well, was it
| because you didn't get into a car accident on the way or
| overslept or got sick when you needed to study? Or because you
| studied?
|
| I have found that many people want to attribute all success as
| 'luck' due to their own insecurities.
| robocat wrote:
| > A better way is to observe the people who failed and failed
| miserably, and learn from their failures
|
| I've always wondered about this for startups: failure porn just
| feels so useful but my suspicion is that it is useless.
|
| There's just too many different ways to fail.
|
| Focusing time and energy on how to avoid failure just seems so
| wrong. Getting sidetracked. Unmotivated. However I do think one
| needs the right amount of fear, and one needs to avoid the
| failure modes for your particular startup and your particular
| personality.
|
| Surely the right idea is to focus on competing to win.
| eikenberry wrote:
| Poor title. Increasing the role of luck in your life has no
| upsides. You should do everything possible to reduce lucks role
| in your life as it can't be relied upon and you can only (and
| have to) plan for bad luck.
| kulahan wrote:
| Luck isn't real anyways. It's actually all about getting
| yourself in front of opportunities as often as possible,
| learning to recognize when they show up, and acting on them
| ASAP. That's all it is. I consider myself extremely lucky, but
| that's just another way of saying I've seen a lot of the
| opportunities in my life and consciously decided which to
| chase, rather than floating through the river of fate
| aimlessly.
| nlawalker wrote:
| This article could have been called "How to increase your
| surface area for opportunities to find you", because that's
| another component. You still have to recognize them and act
| on them, but these behaviors can potentially get more of
| those opportunities "into the funnel".
|
| Scott Adams' book "How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still
| Win Big" talks a lot about this, and is an enjoyable read,
| despite the author's current reputation.
| jcalx wrote:
| As supplemental reading see "bulk positive randomness" as
| discussed here [0]. It is tempting, but fallacious, to imagine
| "luck" as a zero-sum, EV=0 (or worse) process across every
| domain of life, where all upside or alpha has long been
| arbitraged away. Yes, there are some domains where you want to
| minimize variance, like the distribution of transit times to
| the airport when you have a flight to catch, or the odds of
| being robbed in a bad neighborhood. But there are also many
| situations where meeting new people, trying new things, etc.
| have many upsides and few drawbacks, and for most people these
| are (1) common and (2) recognizable.
| smokel wrote:
| This is related to the exploration-exploitation tradeoff studied
| in reinforcement learning [1], for which no universally optimal
| solution is known. This article suggests to explore more, but it
| might be wise to exploit your knowledge and be somewhat risk-
| averse every now and then as well.
|
| Also, there is a difference between making decisions at the
| individual level and looking at the actions of all humans
| combined. A strategy that is sub-optimal for most individuals can
| still yield positive outcomes at the societal level. For example,
| it is fortunate that many people go into research, even though it
| is highly unlikely for an individual to find a massive
| breakthrough.
|
| [1]
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration%E2%80%93exploitati...
| chrisweekly wrote:
| I learned about "explore vs exploit" in a fantastic book titled
| "Algorithms to Live By - What computer science can teach is
| about human decision-making" [subtitle from memory]
|
| Highly recommended!
| csa wrote:
| For the curious, "luck surface area" was coined/popularized by
| Jason Roberts from the Techzing and Tropical MBA podcasts.
|
| Our own patio11 (Patrick McKenzie) also helped propagate the
| concept.
|
| The basic equation is L = D * T -- that is, luck surface area
| equals doing times telling.
|
| I think the author strays from the original concept a bit. She's
| not necessarily _wrong_ , but I get a sense of focusing on style
| over substance in most of her examples as compared to the
| original concept.
| gmuslera wrote:
| It may very opinionated towards exactly what/where/etc you are
| looking for. Increasing the number of interactions may also
| increase the odds of bad outcomes. The rest of the owl should be
| put in the picture too.
| 65 wrote:
| Step 1: Be an extreme extrovert
|
| Step 2: Do not be anything other than an extreme extrovert
| vlod wrote:
| For those that are flinching at this, there's a technique where
| you pretend you're someone else (extrovert persona) while going
| to network events.
|
| e.g. pretend you're Tony Stark, a form of role playing (like
| how actors operate).
| billy99k wrote:
| Not being interested in communicating with other humans has
| never helped with success.
|
| It's like saying you want to swim, but refuse to touch water.
| jslakro wrote:
| Today I was rereading an old link on the same topic from my
| bookmarks
|
| https://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-sur...
| humbleferret wrote:
| This piece hits on the idea you can cultivate luck. It's about
| increasing your 'Luck Surface Area' (L = D x T: Luck = Doing x
| Telling).
|
| My notes/ points that stood out for me:
|
| - Actively seek diverse social, intellectual, and professional
| interactions. Each one expands your surface area for serendipity.
| TAKE MORE SHOTS!
|
| - Don't go into interactions with an agenda. Real interest opens
| doors unexpected.
|
| - Always aim for excellence. Even in small tasks. People notice
| this. A strong reputation pulls in opportunity.
|
| - Give before you take. Offer attention, time, or resources
| without expecting immediate return. That builds high trust
| relationships.
|
| - Share your authentic self. Put your unique thoughts out there.
| It's a magnet for those who truly resonate with you. Don't fake
| it.
|
| - Host stuff. Simple, low pressure events work best. Taking the
| initiative to create connections is often more effective than
| just showing up.
| udkl wrote:
| Goes good with https://perell.com/essay/serendipity/
| ge96 wrote:
| > Actively seek diverse social, intellectual, and professional
| interactions
|
| The word is yes (Yes Man 2008)
| pstuart wrote:
| > Don't go into interactions with an agenda. Real interest
| opens doors unexpected.
|
| Expectations are premeditated resentments. (from a 12-step
| friend)
| tibbar wrote:
| The luckiest thing I ever did was probably burning out, quitting
| my small-town engineering job, and then, after a few months,
| getting in at an AI-related SF startup before AI really took off,
| during that bubble when it was a little easier to get hired in
| general. That generated such an enormous volume of opportunity,
| growth, and well-connected friends that it makes my head spin.
|
| Put another way: I had very few opportunities previously, and
| they weren't too good. I also didn't really have good ideas on
| how to get ahead. Now, it almost doesn't really matter what I do
| - every direction is incredible.
|
| I'm not quite sure how to boil down this situation, but I'm not
| sure that it matches up to the article. My luck surface area is
| certainly larger now, but it mostly stems from one very well-
| timed decision, not from intentionally going out to make
| connections (I still struggle with that.)
| guilamu wrote:
| Good for you, man!
| mettamage wrote:
| Are you up for a chat, for fun and for career?
|
| I started with AI six months ago at work and am feeling kind of
| lost where to take my career.
|
| My email is in my profile.
| godelski wrote:
| I think there is also a good general lesson to learn for the
| tons of cases like yours.
|
| First, I want to say that I don't think it was all luck. You
| put in hard work and you made it. I like the saying "the harder
| I work, the luckier I get." Luck gets you opportunities, work
| lets you take advantage of them. I say this first because I
| don't want anyone to read things as saying "you don't deserve
| it, you just got lucky". Luck doesn't detract.
| > getting in at an AI-related SF startup before AI really took
| off
|
| We spend so much time and effort for finding the best
| candidates. I think if we look at the history of things, this
| surprisingly doesn't matter as much as we might think. Huge
| companies have been built by people who on paper don't look the
| best. Some of these companies also take off by luck, or what we
| might call "timing." A lot of what matters is how a team or
| group works together. A lot of what matters is a candidate's
| potential, rather than where they are right now.[0]
|
| I want to point this out not to say we should just roll the
| dice on every person that applies for a job. Rather I say this
| because like most things in life, there's noise. If we forget
| about the noise, we're going to be less accurate. Randomness is
| literally a measurement of uncertainty. While we should try to
| optimize certainty, we are unable to be absolutely certain. So
| it requires recognizing the noise if you want to be accurate.
|
| I think we often make a mistake by ignoring noise. Or worse,
| thinking we've removed it. We don't talk about this as computer
| engineers, but if you talk to any physical engineer (like a
| mechanical engineer), or even a machinist, all measurements
| will include tolerances. That's uncertainty, noise. Without
| tolerances, designs are not good enough to physically make
| something. And, the machinists will just make some assumption
| for you, which you gotta roll the dice if they're going to have
| too small of tolerances, making your part worthless or overdo
| your tolerances, making you pay far more than the part should
| cost. I think it applies to us when programming too.
| > My luck surface area is certainly larger now
|
| And I think this is another important part (that can connect to
| what's been said above). Success gives us more opportunities.
| Importantly, these compound. Unfortunately, this means luck
| matters far more earlier on. I think we should recognize this
| as it plays a huge role when talking about juniors, high
| schoolers, college graduates, and so on. The difference between
| two random people starts small, but grows as they progress. If
| you took the same student and sent them to Standford they'd
| probably do better than if you sent them to some Cal State. The
| former is much more likely to give connections and internships
| while the latter might lead to none, even if the education was
| exactly the same.
|
| [0] It can be funny when people will spend so much looking for
| candidates but also say that degrees are worthless. There's
| probably a lot of these contradicting mindsets we all have (me
| included).
| grillitob wrote:
| "Increasing Surface Area for Luck? Don't Just Show Up--Engage."
|
| The advice to "increase your surface area for luck" by
| interacting more is half-right. The real leverage isn't just
| volume--it's receptivity. Forced interactions
| [?] luck. Dragging yourself to a party disengaged? Skimming a
| book you don't care about? You're not expanding opportunities--
| you're a ghost in the room. Luck sticks to presence, not
| proximity. Serendipity favors the prepared. Ever
| meet someone transformative because you were primed to listen? Or
| stumble on an idea because you were actively searching? That's
| not randomness--it's alertness meeting opportunity.
| True "surface area" is neurological. It's the difference between
| hearing and listening, attending and connecting. Optimize for
| depth of engagement, not just foot traffic.
|
| TL;DR: Luck isn't passive. It's the collision of action and
| attention.
| taneq wrote:
| "Trust your luck, Taran Wanderer! But don't forget to put out
| your nets!" - Llonio
|
| Do things, talk to people, engage. Note that this is different to
| "hustle". Don't try too hard to minmax, because that leaves no
| room for serendipity.
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