[HN Gopher] GLP-1s Are Breaking Life Insurance
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       GLP-1s Are Breaking Life Insurance
        
       Author : alexslobodnik
       Score  : 204 points
       Date   : 2025-07-13 18:31 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.glp1digest.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.glp1digest.com)
        
       | toomuchtodo wrote:
       | It sounds like aligning incentives here is requiring the weight
       | stay off for the policy to remain in effect with an annual
       | physical for monitoring, similar to what employers require for
       | health insurance premium reductions. Point in time underwriting
       | is suboptimal considering current state of the art of GLP-1s
       | (unless newer protocols that can update metabolic profiles are
       | delivered soon).
        
         | prasadjoglekar wrote:
         | Or life insurers paying for ongoing GLP-1s instead of
         | potentially the health insurer.
         | 
         | But to your broader point, at least in the US, incentive mis-
         | alignment on all healthcare and health insurance is possibly
         | irredeemably broken.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | Nailed my broader point. Could we go through contortions to
           | see who is going to pay unreasonable costs for GLP-1s (health
           | insurance, life insurance)? We could, but that's silly
           | accounting to see who still gets to make the profit and who
           | has to end up with the bill for empowering the human to fix
           | their reward center. The shortcut is to provide GLP-1s to
           | everyone who needs them at scale, as inexpensively as
           | possible (to pull forward the improvement in health and
           | quality of life outcomes until improved protocols arrive).
           | The semaglutide patent is about to expire in Canada, China,
           | India, and Brazil, for example.
           | 
           | https://www.labiotech.eu/in-depth/novo-nordisk-
           | semaglutide-p...
        
       | jgalt212 wrote:
       | I guess, but this is sort of the same as going on a statin to get
       | your cholesterol down for a better insurance rate. Then going off
       | because of reasons...
        
       | arn3n wrote:
       | Obesity is highly correlated with other medical conditions, from
       | cancer to diabetes to heart disease. I wonder if there is a point
       | at which it is cheaper for health insurance companies to offer
       | subsidized or even free GLP-1s to patients than pay out for other
       | specialized medications. For example, my insurance covers flu
       | shots in my community every year because it's presumably less
       | expensive to pay for the shots compared to the increased rate of
       | hospitalization that the flu causes.
        
         | aqme28 wrote:
         | You're thinking too highly about the incentives of the US
         | healthcare system. Since insurance is tied to your employer
         | (and therefore changing every few years), and most people die
         | on Medicare, there's not much incentive for insurance companies
         | to pay for preventative care that won't actually help you for
         | several decades.
        
           | ethbr1 wrote:
           | That's one reason the ACA shifted it to a mandatory (in most
           | cases) category: https://www.healthcare.gov/preventive-care-
           | adults/
           | 
           | Minimal, but minimal progress in the US was/is still
           | progress.
        
           | helicalmix wrote:
           | hmm...doesn't this possibly incentivize ozempic subsidies
           | even more?
           | 
           | If you know a "customer" of yours (an individual employee) is
           | only going to be with you until they either change jobs or go
           | on Medicare, then it seems the name of the game then is to
           | make sure that nothing catastrophic happens to them until you
           | can hand them off to someone else.
           | 
           | In which case, they should definitely go on ozempic. Even if
           | the effects of ozempic immediately come off after usage, it's
           | a short-term enough solution that benefits the insurance
           | company, no?
        
             | vrc wrote:
             | Yes. For very high risk patients, payers do want this. I've
             | even heard of some paying pharmacies $100/fill if done on
             | time for select people.
             | 
             | The problem is, prediabetic and folks who may have crossed
             | 7.0 A1C once, and just overweight folks with docs who are
             | willing to play fast and loose are demanding it. Skipping
             | metformin and other first line treatment options that are
             | way cheaper. For those folks, complications might be the
             | next guys problem.
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | > You're thinking too highly about the incentives of the US
           | healthcare system. Since insurance is tied to your employer
           | (and therefore changing every few years)
           | 
           | Most people don't change jobs or insurance companies every
           | few years. When they do, it's often within similar regions
           | and industries so the chances of ending up right back under
           | the same insurance company are significant.
           | 
           | Regardless, the issue is more complicated than your line of
           | thinking. Insurance companies have very small profit margins.
           | Current GLP-1 drugs are expensive, around $1,000 per month.
           | 
           | So each patient on GLP-1 drugs costs an extra $12K per year
           | (roughly) or $120K per decade. That would have to offset a
           | lot of other expenditures to break even from a pure cost
           | perspective, which isn't supported by the math. So the only
           | alternative would be to raise everyone's rates.
           | 
           | I know the insurance industry is the favorite target for
           | explaining everything people dislike about healthcare right
           | now, but at the end of the day they can't conjure money out
           | of nothing to cover everything at any cost demanded by drug
           | makers. These drugs are super expensive and honestly it's
           | kind of amazing that so many people are getting them covered
           | at all.
        
         | idontwantthis wrote:
         | You presume incorrectly. The flu vaccine has been covered for
         | free because the federal government required it. RFK Jr. fired
         | the entire CDC panel that created the requirement and replaced
         | them with antivaxers. There's a good chance it won't be covered
         | soon.
        
           | hammock wrote:
           | Covered for the patient yes. For free, no.
        
             | idontwantthis wrote:
             | Are you disputing that the patient with insurance does not
             | have to pay anything or raising a non sequitur about
             | "someone" needing to pay for it?
        
         | dragonwriter wrote:
         | > For example, my insurance covers flu shots in my community
         | every year because it's presumably less expensive to pay for
         | the shots compared to the increased rate of hospitalization
         | that the flu causes.
         | 
         | In the US, insurance companies are generally _legally mandated_
         | to cover ACIP recommended vaccines at no cost to the insured,
         | which includes flu vaccines for everyone six months or older
         | without contraindications.
        
         | jameshart wrote:
         | We have no idea what the long tern actuarial numbers are of 30
         | year GLP-1 use though.
        
           | alvah wrote:
           | Well no, obviously not, but we do have 20 years of data, and
           | aside from a still-tiny-but-slightly-elevated thyroid cancer
           | risk, there's really not much showing up in that data.
        
         | petesergeant wrote:
         | > I wonder if there is a point at which it is cheaper for
         | health insurance companies to offer subsidized or even free
         | GLP-1s to patients than pay out for other specialized
         | medications.
         | 
         | That the NHS is getting to a place where it'll provide it, I'd
         | say yes.
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | Everyone likes to bash the US healthcare system, but at the
           | same time it's remarkable how much subsidized GLP-1 access
           | Americans are getting compared to much of the world. The
           | paradox of discussing healthcare online.
        
         | michaelbuckbee wrote:
         | Add heart disease and blood pressure meds to the list of "we'd
         | be better off as a group if more people took them as
         | preventatives".
        
         | massung wrote:
         | I don't know if your topic switch was intentional - if so, my
         | apologies and this is just for people outside the US who don't
         | know...
         | 
         | The article is about life insurance, which is very different
         | from medical insurance.
         | 
         | Medical insurance companies often already go out of their way
         | to pay early to save in the long run (e.g. free preventative
         | care, checkups, etc.). I can't speak to GLP-1s, but it's
         | possible that right now there are still active patents when
         | used for obesity that make them crazy expensive for a few more
         | years.
         | 
         | Life insurance is all about models and predictions about when
         | you're going to die. Any sudden change that massively impacts
         | those models suck, because life insurers are basically gamblers
         | with gobs of historical data they use to hedge their bets.
        
           | silotis wrote:
           | > Medical insurance companies often already go out of their
           | way to pay early to save in the long run
           | 
           | Literally LOLed when I read this. Health insurance companies
           | might pay lip service to this and make some token gestures
           | like free preventative care, but in my experience health
           | insurance companies frequently shoot themselves in the foot
           | by denying care that later ends up costing them even more
           | when the patient's untreated condition worsens.
        
           | GLdRH wrote:
           | It's not a gamble, it's an application of the law of large
           | numbers. But yes, changes in the underlying assumptions (e.g.
           | mortality rates) can make the whole calculation untenable.
        
           | terminalshort wrote:
           | Medical insurance in the US is not incentivized to save
           | money. In fact it's just the opposite. The ACA requires that
           | 80% of premiums be paid out to medical expenses. If an
           | insurance company encourages people to get preventive care
           | and lowers its expenses, that means they also have to lower
           | premiums. So they actually want costs to be as high as
           | possible since they get to keep 20%.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | After it goes generic it will be cheaper. right now, it's not.
        
         | DrillShopper wrote:
         | > I wonder if there is a point at which it is cheaper for
         | health insurance companies to offer subsidized or even free
         | GLP-1s to patients than pay out for other specialized
         | medications
         | 
         | Some do. My insurance requires a prior authorization due to the
         | previous shortage, but it's $12/mo
         | 
         | Medicaid in my state also covers it for $3/mo
        
         | Jach wrote:
         | I don't think GLP-1s are particularly expensive, so my top
         | preference would be to just see them easily available. While
         | not quite the same, it's a win that Rogaine/Minoxidil were once
         | prescription-only but for a long time now can be bought at any
         | grocery store and taken to the self-checkout. Still, I think
         | the subsidy approach has been done for smoking problems via
         | nicotine products before, and e.g. nicotine gum cost never
         | seemed that high to me (especially compared to cigarettes).
         | 
         | But it's also worth remembering the relative risks involved.
         | Obesity isn't quite the ticking time bomb / public menace it's
         | often made out to be... For smoking, you'll find studies with
         | relative risk numbers for lung cancer over 5 for casual 1-4
         | times a day smokers, and the number quickly exceeds 20 for
         | heavier smokers. In contrast, with obesity, the most severe
         | relative risks for things like heart disease or diabetes you'll
         | find _topping out_ around 4 to 5 for the most obese, even then
         | often under 3, with milder 1.1 to 2 for the bulk of obese
         | people. (Here, ~31% of the US has BMIs between 30-40, and ~9%
         | have BMIs over 40.) For other harms, like there was a study on
         | dementia a few years back, you 'll also find pretty mild
         | (1.1ish) relative risks, but these end up being similar with
         | other factors like "stress", "economic status", or "low
         | educational attainment". Just some thought for people thinking
         | about subsidizing or providing free stuff, the cost tradeoff
         | with paying for other things later might not work out so
         | neatly, and there's reason to not focus solely on obesity but
         | also do the same sort of analysis with other factors and
         | severity of a factor as well.
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | > I don't think GLP-1s are particularly expensive
           | 
           | On-patent GLP-1s (all of them right now) are actually
           | extremely expensive. Right around $1000 per month.
           | 
           | I don't want to discourage anyone who needs them from seeking
           | treatment, but their discontinuation rate can be somewhat
           | higher than you'd think from a life-changing drug because
           | many people don't like certain effects or even encounter side
           | effects.
           | 
           | Weight loss drugs are also a challenging category for OTC
           | because they're a target of abuse. People with eating
           | disorders and body dysmorphia already seek out black market
           | GLP-1s at a high rate and it would be a difficult situation
           | if they could pick them up impulsively from the medicine
           | aisle. It's also common for people to misuse OTC medications
           | by taking very high doses hoping for faster results, which
           | has to be considered.
           | 
           | There's a libertarian-minded angle where people say "Who
           | cares, that's their own problem. Medications should be free
           | for everyone to take." I was persuaded by those arguments
           | when I was younger, but now I have a very different
           | perspective after hearing about the common and strange world
           | of OTC medicine abuse from my friends in the medical field.
           | Just ask your doctor friends if they think Tylenol should
           | still be OTC if you want to hear some very sad stories.
        
             | fnord77 wrote:
             | I pay about $40/month for mine, grey market from china
        
             | bananapub wrote:
             | > On-patent GLP-1s (all of them right now) are actually
             | extremely expensive. Right around $1000 per month.
             | 
             | what does that mean? in the UK it's for sale from numerous
             | national-chain pharmacies on a private prescription (ie the
             | pharmacy is selling it commercially and customers are
             | paying cash, no insurance and no state subsidy) for less
             | than $US270/month. it seems unlikely to me that the
             | pharmacies or the manufacturers are taking a loss on this,
             | and the UK has at least as strict drug quality standards as
             | the US.
             | 
             | sounds like the US monopoly-holders are just charging a lot
             | more because they can, because the insurance system
             | obfuscates prices and gives everyone involved cover to rip
             | off patients?
        
             | terminalshort wrote:
             | People who want to misuse the medication are going to be
             | the ones most willing and able to jump through the
             | bureaucratic hoops. Increasing the difficulty to get the
             | medication will only make it more difficult for legitimate
             | users and won't decrease abuse. In 1920, 1970, and now,
             | heroin was legal, illegal with minimal enforcement, and
             | illegal with harsh enforcement (except in SF), and the same
             | percentage of the population was addicted at each time.
             | 
             | Doctors' jobs are to deal with the cases that go wrong.
             | These anecdotes have no relevance without actual data on
             | how often these problems occur.
        
         | interestica wrote:
         | Fluoridated water? Nah. GLP water.
        
       | llm_nerd wrote:
       | This is a fun read, however-
       | 
       | "Life insurers can predict when you'll die with about 98%
       | accuracy."
       | 
       | This conclusion isn't supported by the linked document. The
       | document instead is talking about expected vs actual deaths among
       | demographic groups as a whole, not individual people. And that
       | expected vs actual is just history + trends. This doesn't mean
       | that insurance can say that Joe Blow is going to die in June of
       | 2027 with "98% accuracy", obviously.
        
         | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
         | Put a little differently, they can predict that of your cohort
         | (defined somehow), after June 2027, only X percent of you will
         | still be alive.
         | 
         | Will you be one of them? Click here to find out!
        
           | etothepii wrote:
           | For mortality tables age and sex are pretty much sufficient
           | to get to 98% accuracy.
        
         | astrange wrote:
         | > This doesn't mean that insurance can say that Joe Blow is
         | going to die in June of 2027 with "98% accuracy", obviously.
         | 
         | Pretty easy to predict if you're willing to make it happen.
        
           | GLdRH wrote:
           | Life insurance is just another word for bounty
        
         | crazygringo wrote:
         | Yeah that was a bizarre line in the article. Not to mention
         | it's meaningless because it doesn't say within what time
         | interval. But even if you assume a year (i.e. predict your age
         | of death) it's obviously false. Life insurers are very much not
         | predicting the year an individual will die and getting it right
         | 98% off the time. That would be absurd.
        
         | ks2048 wrote:
         | I can predict pretty well "Will person X die this year" by
         | saying "No". Yeah, this number seems meaningless without more
         | context.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | They can predict it in the sense most people will die within
         | some specified window in which the insurer makes a profit. This
         | is why its so profitable for the insurer. They have a very wide
         | window where it's profitable and the vast majority of people,
         | 98%, fall within this window. .
        
       | vslira wrote:
       | I've always felt that there's some trade to be done here, with
       | life and health insurers basically giving glp-1 et all for free
       | bc they lower the cost of everything else
       | 
       | edit: and then Big Annuity lobbying to oppose this
        
         | lesam wrote:
         | Aren't "Big Life Insurance" and "Big Annuity" pretty much the
         | same companies?
        
           | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
           | They are, they're basically mathematical inverses of the same
           | product.
           | 
           | Big Annuity can charge you more, in fact, if it has reason to
           | believe you're going to live unusually long, so playing the
           | GLP-1 dance with them would only be profitable in reverse.
           | Pretend to be the unhealthiest person on the planet, lock in
           | an annuity, then get on the drip stat.
        
       | meltyness wrote:
       | Well I guess a GLP-1 pacemaker would address this. A lifetime of
       | doses weighs at much as a nickel?
        
         | MPSimmons wrote:
         | I believe it has to be kept at refrigerated temperatures over
         | its relatively short shelf-life (1 year, I believe).
        
       | foota wrote:
       | I realize this is a fraught question, because not everyone is
       | overweight by choice (whether due to a subsisting on whatever
       | they can afford, time, genetics, injury, etc,.) but I believe
       | that insurers are able to consider whether someone smokes
       | cigarettes when setting premiums for ACA based healthcare. With
       | the above caveats that would make this difficult, it would be
       | nice if we could treat "voluntary" obesity similarly.
        
         | etothepii wrote:
         | I think the article is making the point that that is what they
         | have traditionally been able to do but they no longer can.
         | Since the magic drugs are giving people the will power to be
         | able to make these changes.
        
           | foota wrote:
           | The article is about life insurance, not health insurance (I
           | should have made it clear I was talking about health
           | insurance).
        
       | romaaeterna wrote:
       | The problem (not new with GLP-1s) is that people lose weight, get
       | life insurance, and then regain.
       | 
       | The biggest part of that equation is regain part. Most people
       | quit GLP-1s because of costs. Let's fix that.
        
         | beepbopboopp wrote:
         | Get ready for health/weight based credit scores, Its probably a
         | genuinely good idea.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | I think they quit also because they see it is working and no
         | longer feel like they need to use it
        
         | apwell23 wrote:
         | i have hard time believing ppl go through all that only to sign
         | up for cheap life insurance.
        
         | cm2187 wrote:
         | I don't know, I tend to notice the effect wears off over time.
         | Not sure it's a good idea to consume it permanently. Perhaps a
         | better use would be for short periods to course correct.
        
           | romaaeterna wrote:
           | Anecdotally, the dose required to maintain a stable weight
           | seems to be lower than the dose required to lose weight. Most
           | people tend to regain some weight when going cold turkey.
           | 
           | The safety profile of the drugs with diabetics, and the
           | health benefits that come from the associated weight loss may
           | make permanent use a net benefit for most people. There
           | appears to be little, if any, "course correction" effect from
           | taking it for short periods of time.
        
             | cm2187 wrote:
             | It depends how you define "short period of time". When I
             | started, I lost 40kg in a matter of 5 months. Is that
             | short? If you develop a tolerance to the product, then it
             | doesn't protect you long term from gaining back weight,
             | combined with you losing the option to do a rapid descent.
             | 
             | I am not saying that those variations are great from a
             | health point of view, but they are certainly not as bad as
             | staying obese.
        
           | jstummbillig wrote:
           | Can you explain what you mean? What you say seems to strictly
           | contradict how the meds are supposed to work.
        
             | firesteelrain wrote:
             | People find they need to increase to higher tolerable doses
             | to ensure their hunger is satiated. But also, you need to
             | increase your protein and fiber intake to maintain that
             | satiation. I tried going up to 10mg and I had such a sick
             | feeling. 5mg I could tolerate. Some people are up 15mg.
        
           | rrrrrrrrrrrryan wrote:
           | According to all the studies, this is absolutely the worst
           | thing that you can do. GLP-1s are revolutionary, but when you
           | go on them, you should intend to stay on them for life. When
           | patients first go on them, they lose both muscle and fat, and
           | when they go off them, they regain _just_ fat, and in many
           | cases they 're in a worse situation than they would be if
           | they hadn't gone on them in the first place.
           | 
           | Letting your weight fluctuate up and down in giant swings is,
           | in many ways, harder on the body than just staying at a
           | steady weight, even if it's overweight.
        
             | nwienert wrote:
             | This is nearly perfectly wrong.
             | 
             | There's nothing in these drugs that makes you lose more
             | muscle than fat, you don't lose any more muscle than if you
             | do a regular diet, not even slightly.
             | 
             | Second, the drugs don't do anything to cause you to gain
             | back mostly fat, and people going off them have more
             | success, not less, than your average person who loses
             | weight rapidly whether through diet or other means.
             | 
             | The average person who is 50lbs overweight because they
             | gained 5lbs a year for a decade will lose all of that
             | weight within 6 months with nearly entirely positive side
             | effects, and if they stop taking it, will regain a bit less
             | than they did before, meaning it would take another decade
             | to get back to where they were. That is unequivocally a
             | huge net positive.
             | 
             | It's not like Testosterone which does have dramatic
             | negative effects when taken long term and can cause
             | dependency.
             | 
             | It also happens to be extremely effective at reducing bad
             | habits, and yes those habit changes persist after quitting
             | - not perfectly, but surprisingly so. This even works for
             | smoking, drinking, and gambling.
        
           | cjbgkagh wrote:
           | I've been on it for years, at a lower dose though, the
           | counter action by the body is probably dose dependent so my
           | theory is lower for longer is more sustainable. I think
           | people get attached to the rapid weight loss, coupled with
           | the high expensive, incentivizes higher doses. I take gray
           | market supply and it's rather cheap.
           | 
           | Also it should be mostly used as an adjunct to strict diet
           | and exercise.
        
         | msgodel wrote:
         | "Measuring" people for the sake of insurance just sounds hard.
         | Partly because people are complex but also because people just
         | hate being measured.
        
         | arp242 wrote:
         | Are the long-term (>20 years) effects of taking GLP-1s really
         | all that well understood? Because that's kind of what you're
         | suggesting here.
         | 
         | Making millions of people dependent on a drug to maintain basic
         | health does not strike me as the best of ideas regardless. I
         | understand why it's a good idea for many from an individual
         | perspective and I'm not judging anyone, but from a societal
         | perspective it does not seem like a reasonable solution.
        
           | Spivak wrote:
           | Why not? We have an overweight and obesity epidemic that has
           | persisted through everything else we've gotten enough
           | political capital to try thus far. The "miracle" drug is the
           | most promising direction we've had in a long time. Whatever
           | possible adverse long term effects have to be (plausibility
           | they actually happen) x (harm they cause) > known harms of
           | being overweight.
           | 
           | The scale of the solution is allowed to match the scale of
           | the problem which is on the order of 2/3 of adults or
           | 200,000,000 people.
        
             | arp242 wrote:
             | Well, don't say you weren't warned when it turns out the
             | miracle is not such a miracle after all and it all
             | massively backfires in a few decades, at which point you're
             | still going to have to actually fix the real underlying
             | causes.
        
       | paul7986 wrote:
       | I believe AI along with smart glasses that shows and calculates
       | your daily caloric intake will be a SUBSTITUTE (another option)
       | to the Ozempics.
       | 
       | With AI glasses doing this automatically for you upon seeing what
       | your eating without u having to do anything some people may be
       | shocked to learn how many calories they consume daily.
       | 
       | Currently, it's too time consuming now for the majority to do (i
       | use GPT via texting it or talking to it to keep track as I eat
       | out daily at healthy chains) but if it was done automagically I
       | believe it definitely would be a substitute to Ozempic. I bet
       | some or more would use that easily captured data that's shown to
       | them (in the glasses or on their mobile device) to strive, make
       | and possibly compete with their friends/family to eat less
       | calories and carry less weight on them (be healthier). You can
       | train your body to eat less to a lot less and for some that would
       | definitely help them shed weight. The glasses could as well
       | deduct calories burned from your daily walk, jog, etc.
       | 
       | *Being downvoted hmmm do you think AI by seeing it can't via an
       | image calculate the calories of a burrito bought from Chipolte
       | and other chains? All chains have nutrition information on their
       | websites now that GPT goes and fetches. As for home cooked
       | prepared meals I have taken pics of my food via GPT and it seemed
       | to come close.
        
         | __turbobrew__ wrote:
         | I don't think awareness of caloric intake is the problem, there
         | are standardized labels on most foods (especially the bad
         | ones). Most people who are obese know that the calories make
         | them overweight, but they still have the need to eat food --
         | which is what makes obesity a result of addiction. Similarly
         | meth addicts know that meth is bad for them, but they still do
         | it anyways.
        
           | astrange wrote:
           | How often do people control their own diets? That assumes
           | they buy and cook all their own food, which is only true if
           | you live on your own.
        
             | __turbobrew__ wrote:
             | > How often do people control their own diets
             | 
             | Maybe I live in a bubble, but I don't put stuff in my body
             | unwillingly, so yes I control my diet.
             | 
             | It also isn't rocket science, I know doughnuts have a shit
             | ton of calories and vegetable shortening which will clkg
             | your arteries, so I don't eat doughnuts. I don't have to
             | look at the packaging.
             | 
             | Maybe the missing part is a proper education on nutrition
             | in school, but we live in the age of the internet. All the
             | information is there, you can get meal plans, you can
             | figure out what foods are more likely to put you at risk.
             | 
             | Again, I don't believe awareness is an issue. People know
             | that chips and doughnuts are bad, but they eat them anyways
             | because they are addicted to food which is engineered to be
             | addictive.
        
               | astrange wrote:
               | > Maybe I live in a bubble, but I don't put stuff in my
               | body unwillingly, so yes I control my diet.
               | 
               | The example I'm thinking of is cultures with near-
               | religious obligations to listen to their parents. Like
               | Italian-Americans all act like they'd die if they ever
               | ate less than all of their grandmother's cooking or ever
               | changed any of the traditional recipes. Even though the
               | recipes were all invented in 1970 in NYC and have
               | inhumanly large amounts of carbs.
        
           | paul7986 wrote:
           | Sure and I didnt say it would replace Ozempics rather it's a
           | substitute that would help a portion of the population.
           | 
           | Yet majority of all people have no idea the amount of
           | calories they eat daily. Im sure being shown this
           | automagically will be valuable data to all people just how
           | they choose to use this optional feature to make changes or
           | not.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | > which is what makes obesity a result of addiction.
           | 
           | Obesity is not (in general) a result of addiction.
        
         | lbrito wrote:
         | People with poor restraint will remain unfazed.
         | 
         | If what you're suggesting worked, then the horrible cancer pics
         | on cig packs would have long eliminated smoking.
        
           | paul7986 wrote:
           | I did say it will be a substitute to the Ozempics not a
           | replacement.
           | 
           | For those who don't have the will power there's the Ozempics
           | to utilize at their discretion. For those who do have some or
           | a lot of will power to change their lifestyle forever then
           | this is going to be extremely helpful and those types wont be
           | using Ozempics as Im sure such types are using it now.
        
           | ChadNauseam wrote:
           | I agree with you. However, smoking rates have gone down,
           | probably in part because of those pictures and awareness
           | campaigns in general
        
             | GLdRH wrote:
             | I can't support this with data, but I'd think the increase
             | in price and compounding effect of more and more people
             | quitting, plus absence of smoking in the media, has had
             | more of an effect
        
               | arp242 wrote:
               | I knew several people for whom the pictures were the
               | "final push" to really quit back when they were first
               | introduced. Not sure if it's easy to get good data to
               | separate out all the factors such as cost, in-your-face
               | warnings, etc. because they all happened more or less at
               | the same time.
               | 
               | As an aside, I watched _Poor Things_ this afternoon, and
               | it came with a  "Contains Tobacco Depictions" warning at
               | the start. Never seen that before. No warning for the
               | nudity, sex, or profanity.
        
           | paul7986 wrote:
           | well for those mid level to have strong restraint this is
           | going to be helpful!
           | 
           | I already do this with chatGPT but i have to do something vs.
           | just living and glasses doing it automatically.
        
         | lumost wrote:
         | You're being downvoted as many people who try to count calories
         | fail to achieve meaningful results. From my own experience,
         | weight gain follows a simple progression.
         | 
         | 1. Expected high stress work day -> Coffee w/ food item in the
         | morning
         | 
         | 2. Stress during the day -> No exercise + large lunch.
         | 
         | 3. Post-day -> door dash due to not feeling up for cooking.
         | 
         | 4. Sleep -> Get 6 hours of sleep due to not having the energy
         | to maintain bedtime discipline, getting paged, or late night
         | meetings + childcare obligations.
         | 
         | 5. Repeat.
         | 
         | This cycle continues for a few months leading to 10-20 pounds
         | of weight gain, followed by a year long push to rebalance life
         | and lose the weight. There is nothing that a magic calorie
         | counter could do for this cycle other than guilt me over my
         | door dash order at the end of the night.
        
           | pmg102 wrote:
           | People seem to be taking it as given that "someone else
           | preparing the food for you" == "the food is more likely to
           | lead to weight gain".
           | 
           | Why should that be? Is it not possible to order healthy food
           | in? If not this would surprise me as it seems a number of
           | people would be seeking this.
           | 
           | I'm asking as I don't have personal experience.
        
             | paul7986 wrote:
             | Everyone lives and enjoy life as they choose as they
             | should!
             | 
             | For those who are not interested cutting down daily on what
             | they eat this data would not be valuable to them just as
             | the data their phone captures now how many steps you walked
             | in a day.
             | 
             | Myself I eat Cava bowls for lunch that are less then 600
             | calories, drink 70 percent water (not consuming calories
             | from what I drink) and unsweet tea (zero calories in tea)
             | with some lemonade to sweeten it a bit as the remainder.
             | Other chains you can find similar meals that are less then
             | 600. If you eat as such and keep at (change ur lifestyle
             | for good) it some weight will be lost if the person wants
             | to as well go for a walk on their lunch break. But again
             | all about to how people want to live and enjoy their lives!
        
             | lumost wrote:
             | The ordering out tends to correlate with someone not having
             | the energy or discipline to make what they want themselves.
             | That lack of energy leads to caving on food cravings and
             | overeating.
             | 
             | I recently switched from a major tech company to an
             | academic position and lost 5 pounds in the first month.
             | Simply due to lower stress making the healthy habits seem
             | "easy."
        
       | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
       | So... There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower
       | people's all cause mortality, but since health insurance and life
       | insurance are industries with vastly different time preferences,
       | this is _not_ a good thing for the life insurers because people
       | just keep getting off the magic longevity drug and screwing up
       | their predictions. Because, admittedly, it kind of sucks in the
       | moment to be on.
       | 
       | And I'm guessing just based on my own experience paying for term
       | life that the actual premia differences aren't actually enough in
       | most cases for the life insurer to simply pay out of pocket
       | themselves; the differences probably add up to a few hundred per
       | year per customer, whereas a year's worth of a GLP-1 agonist
       | probably costs a couple thousand (for now, in 2025, and probably
       | dropping rapidly).
       | 
       | Huh. Second order implementation details aside, this is an
       | extremely fortunate turn of events for us.
        
         | ramoz wrote:
         | Can you explain what sucks about being on the prescriptions?
        
           | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
           | I'm just reporting my cached knowledge of people saying they
           | experienced some adverse side effects. Also injections are
           | not fun, even though they are probably a lot less annoying
           | than they look.
        
             | nwienert wrote:
             | In the 10 or so people I know who are on it, nearly all
             | actually seem to enjoy it - reduced addictive
             | tendencies/bad habits, appetite control, and reduced
             | allergies seem to pretty well outweigh the minor side
             | effects.
        
             | ChadNauseam wrote:
             | A once-weekly subcutaneous injection is not a big deal for
             | most people I think, outside of those who are very afraid
             | of needles. It's a tiny needle and you don't even feel it.
             | I've given injections to people who are afraid of needles,
             | and they sometimes close their eyes in fear and are begging
             | me to "just get it over with" without even realizing that
             | I'm already done. Anyway, all this to say that outside of
             | needle-phobic people I think the annoyance of the
             | injections is probably not the reason people stop taking
             | GLP-1 agonists.
        
               | loeg wrote:
               | > It's a tiny needle and you don't even feel it.
               | 
               | I'll add that while it isn't a big deal, I definitely
               | feel the needle; sometimes worse than others. (I'm using
               | 8mm 30 gauge needles.)
        
               | swat535 wrote:
               | You have to inject it correctly, it needs to be injected
               | in the fat and with the right angle.
               | 
               | If you have very little body fat, your glutes are
               | probably a better place.
               | 
               | Source: I take HCG and have to use injection 2x a week.
               | 27G is my favorite..
               | 
               | https://medneedles.ca/products/1ml-27g-x-1-2-sol-
               | care%E2%84%...
        
               | cjbgkagh wrote:
               | It's mostly random and some people do feel it more than
               | others.
               | 
               | It's a rapidly absorbed peptide suspended in water, it
               | could even be used with a transdermal patch, so it
               | doesn't matter that much where it gets in or how deep.
               | Best to avoid painful areas though.
        
               | loeg wrote:
               | It is correct (belly). :-) I think I remember it being
               | less painful when I was fatter? The 30G/8mm needles I'm
               | using are smaller than your 27G/13mm needles in both
               | dimensions; should be better, if anything. Again, it's
               | not a big deal, but I feel it.
        
               | randallsquared wrote:
               | As someone who is mildly needle-phobic, I'll agree it's
               | no big deal, but you definitely can feel it, and if you
               | hit a blood vessel by accident, there's a (mostly
               | painless) bump and 2-3 week bruise at the injection site,
               | which might be a major issue for some.
        
               | sroussey wrote:
               | Be sure to pull back on the plunger and ensure there the
               | needle is not in a blood vessel (pulling back will draw
               | blood into the thing and you will see).
               | 
               | You do not want the drug meant to subcutaneous to go into
               | the blood steam. This is true for GPL-1s (all peptides
               | for that matter), as well as insulin, and definitely mRNA
               | vaccines.
        
               | cjbgkagh wrote:
               | You don't feel it most of the time, it's actually random
               | with the sparse placement of nerves. Maybe 1 in 5 still
               | sting a bit.
        
             | Spivak wrote:
             | Subcutaneous shots with insulin needles are basically
             | painless. You don't even feel a prick, it's just a little
             | pressure and then it slides in. When you get a shot at the
             | doctor it's painful because they're intramuscular.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | Once daily pills will very likely replace injections in the
             | near future.
             | 
             |  _Eli Lilly will soon release key data on its weight loss
             | pill orforglipron_ -
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43465346 - March 2025
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orforglipron
        
             | gedy wrote:
             | I've taken these and self injected, and it was surprising
             | that I really felt nothing - no pain at all. I suppose
             | because they recommend in stomach, and it's not in muscle,
             | etc.
        
             | dooglius wrote:
             | There's an auto-injector mechanism, at least with my brand;
             | you don't need to needle yourself
        
           | DrillShopper wrote:
           | Hi there - Mounjaro user here. I've been using it for about a
           | year at this point.
           | 
           | I feel sick for three days in a row after taking it. Even
           | after several months on the same dose. I get horrible gut
           | cramps, sour stomach, near constant nausea, and occasionally
           | vomiting and diarrhea. I have to take my shot on Thursday
           | night because I'll feel bad the next day and supremely sick
           | the next two days. If I took it earlier or later in the week
           | it would absolutely impact my ability to work during the work
           | week.
           | 
           | It has had amazing effects. I've lost about 60 lbs in the
           | last year and my A1c is now around 6.2.
           | 
           | It's a very effective drug, but it is brutal on my body. I'm
           | not sure anything in the medication is causing the weight
           | loss. It just makes me feel so sick that even if I'm hungry I
           | don't feel like eating.
        
             | jstummbillig wrote:
             | I mean no offense, but you have a fairly substantiated body
             | of evidence that something in the medication is causing the
             | weight loss. The side effects do sound really shitty
             | though.
        
               | dboreham wrote:
               | These medications don't work in the way many people
               | think. The drug doesn't make you "lose weight" in the
               | sense that it causes the body to excrete fat. Rather it
               | interferes with the constants in the gut/brain
               | signaling/programming system such that your brain doesn't
               | want to eat as much. That in turn leads typically to
               | weight loss.
        
             | schwartzworld wrote:
             | I'm curious what your diet is like, especially at the end
             | of the week when the medicine is weakest. If I eat dairy,
             | sugar, etc in the day or two before my semaglutide, I feel
             | similarly.
        
             | make3 wrote:
             | I don't know how overweight you are, but could you not just
             | reduce the dose to get fewer side effects & still have
             | reasonable weight loss? & Did you try other GLP-1s?
        
             | phil21 wrote:
             | These are pretty extreme side effects for being on the drug
             | thus long.
             | 
             | What dosing are you on? If you're still doing 2.5mg
             | (smallest available in the auto injectors) perhaps try a
             | compounding pharmacy for a month or two and you can
             | experiment with lower doses and a different dosing
             | schedule?
             | 
             | During my peak weight loss period I found that matching my
             | injection schedule to the 5 day half life of Tirzepatide
             | and adjusting the dose downwards to match this schedule
             | helped with any side effects - including the "fading" of
             | effects those last 2 or 3 days for me. There are half life
             | calculator spreadsheets available on the internet that can
             | help dial it in and keep your theoretical concentration
             | more flatline vs peaks and valleys.
             | 
             | The current dosing regime is based on the single FDA trial
             | that LLY did and is certainly not going to be the common
             | practice a decade from now. It's largely designed around
             | patient compliance than anything else.
             | 
             | That said - everyone responds to this drug much
             | differently. My little group I'm in is all over the map.
             | Some folks lose weight consistently with tiny doses every 2
             | weeks, some are going above the recommended maximum weekly
             | dose.
             | 
             | I also found food choices matter. A lot. The best part of
             | tirz for me was being given mental space to stop eating
             | shit food and start eating "clean" consistently. When on
             | high dosing I absolutely would have a bad day if I decided
             | to take my shot and then eat a typical American diet later.
             | 
             | The primary mode of action from the drug is simply you eat
             | less. But it shouldn't be due to you feeling too sick to
             | keep anything down. That sounds pretty horrible.
        
         | jiveturkey wrote:
         | For a single person, perhaps fortunate. What about in
         | aggregate? What if the math is so bad that your life insurer
         | goes bankrupt?
        
           | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
           | ... I just switch life insurance providers?
           | 
           | Seriously, that's just not that big of a deal. It takes like
           | a few days at most for simple term life. Can't speak to the
           | other policies, which I understand are mostly tax vehicles
           | anyway, but it's not hard to simply get a new life insurance
           | policy if your current one goes kaput.
        
             | FabHK wrote:
             | ... and the question was about the aggregate effect. What
             | happens if all life insurers go bankrupt?
        
               | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
               | Every single life insurer? All at once?
               | 
               | Jeez.... I guess in that scenario I become a billionaire
               | because it will be very easy to scoop up some VC money to
               | snoop up some of those newly unemployed actuaries to
               | monopolize the market at a profit margin an order of
               | magnitude larger than any of my now non-existent
               | competition, because this is a financial product and
               | doesn't require months of building a factory or something
               | to offer.
        
               | ecb_penguin wrote:
               | If you think it's that simple, you have no idea what
               | you're talking about.
               | 
               | How many years experience do you have in the insurance
               | industry that you're so confident to talk like this?
               | 
               | > because this is a financial product and doesn't require
               | months of building a factory or something to offer.
               | 
               | How many financial instruments have you launched? If the
               | answer is zero, you should refrain from any conversations
               | on the topic because your opinion literally means
               | nothing.
        
               | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
               | I do actually think it's that simple, yes. Term life is
               | just not that complicated a product at heart.
               | 
               | Onus is on you to prove that if every single life
               | insurance provider was suddenly Thanos snapped out of
               | existence tomorrow, we wouldn't see a swarm of hungry
               | financial professionals swoop right back in to recreate
               | the service within weeks. That seems like a laughable
               | claim to me, but maybe you know something I don't.
               | 
               | (Edit, for future readers: ecb_penguin seems to have
               | missed the question earlier in the thread I was
               | responding to:
               | 
               | >... and the question was about the aggregate effect.
               | What happens if _all_ life insurers go bankrupt?
               | 
               | Emphasis mine. This was to clarify that yes, the original
               | commenter meant literally all providers.)
        
               | ecb_penguin wrote:
               | Ok, so you have no experience and you're just making
               | things up.
               | 
               | > Term life is just not that complicated a product at
               | heart
               | 
               | Sure, it's easy if you don't know what you're talking
               | about and just make stuff up!
               | 
               | > Onus is on you to prove that if every single life
               | insurance provider was suddenly Thanos snapped out of
               | existence tomorrow
               | 
               | Literally nobody said that would happen. Now you're
               | arguing points that nobody made.
               | 
               | You have no experience in the area, arguing things nobody
               | said. You're perfect for VC money, lmao.
               | 
               | > That seems like a laughable claim to me
               | 
               | Nobody made that claim. Why are you laughing at things
               | nobody is saying? That's weird.
               | 
               | > That seems like a laughable claim to me, but maybe you
               | know something I don't.
               | 
               | I would 100% guarantee people that have worked in an
               | industry know more about it than you do.
               | 
               | Textbook demonstration of the Dunning-Kruger effect. You
               | have no knowledge or experience in an area, but you're
               | confident you know how it works, moreso than the actual
               | experts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kr
               | uger_effect
        
               | ecb_penguin wrote:
               | "the Dunning-Kruger effect is the thesis that those who
               | are incompetent in a given area tend to be ignorant of
               | their incompetence, i.e., they lack the metacognitive
               | ability to become aware of their incompetence. This
               | definition lends itself to a simple explanation of the
               | effect: incompetence often includes being unable to tell
               | the difference between competence and incompetence."
               | 
               | I think this very accurately sums up your comments.
        
               | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
               | Well jeez, that sounds awful. Thank goodness I've always
               | been great at everything I've done so I never gave to
               | face this.
        
               | carlosjobim wrote:
               | That is great, they are by definition a net negative on
               | the economy as a whole? You shouldn't gamble on your own
               | health.
        
               | GLdRH wrote:
               | Oh come on, you can't be serious.
               | 
               | It's not a gamble, you transfer your risk to a
               | collective.
        
               | eclipticplane wrote:
               | Perhaps some life insurance products fall into that
               | category. For many families, though, term life insurance
               | plays a big part into ensuring financial security if one
               | income earner dies prematurely.
        
               | DrillShopper wrote:
               | If you want to gamble on your health then you want a
               | tontine, not life insurance.
        
               | A_D_E_P_T wrote:
               | Life insurance, in the past, was frequently illegal.
               | 
               | I'd argue that it should be illegal again, as a moral
               | hazard (directly contributing to countless murders and
               | other schemes) and as a particularly morbid form of
               | gambling.
        
             | DavidPeiffer wrote:
             | You will be going through underwriting again, your new rate
             | will be based on starting at an older age, and you'll have
             | a new exclusion period begin (unless there are some
             | provisions which prevent these in the event of a company
             | failure). Hopefully you haven't had any significant health
             | conditions present themselves since the original policy
             | went into effect.
        
               | darth_avocado wrote:
               | Insurance companies will find any and every reason to not
               | insure you. A slight change in lifestyle could mean you
               | are no longer covered.
        
               | sethhochberg wrote:
               | With term life insurance specifically the lifetime policy
               | premiums are typically so low relative to the value of
               | the policy that there's a natural bias towards insuring
               | generally healthy people. Its not uncommon to see
               | policies that are something like $40/month for 20 years
               | ($9600 in premiums) for a $1mm death benefit, for
               | example.
               | 
               | People with more complex medical conditions often can get
               | life insurance from smaller, specialized providers... and
               | at much higher rates. But the big mass-market players
               | offering inexpensive term life products are only offering
               | them that cheaply because they really control the risk
               | profile during underwriting.
        
             | Marsymars wrote:
             | That's a pretty bad deal if you're 10 years into a 20-year
             | term, and your rates were determined prior to a decade of
             | inflation and new pre-existing conditions.
        
               | hiAndrewQuinn wrote:
               | I admit that's unfortunate. I don't think that was a "bad
               | deal" in the sense that anyone grievously misled you or
               | anything.
               | 
               | I would feel bummed out, but not angry or like I actually
               | got ripped off, in other words. When I signed up for the
               | 20-year term, part of what I was being asked to do was
               | estimate how likely I think it is for this firm to
               | actually be around for that full 20 years. That's just
               | part of the game.
        
         | petesergeant wrote:
         | > admittedly, it kind of sucks in the moment to be on
         | 
         | I don't think that's a typical experience for most people,
         | other than the price
        
           | mattmanser wrote:
           | There's often side effects, including nausea, diarrhea,
           | headaches, bloating, discomfort, etc.
           | 
           | As far as I can tell from forums, it's not like 5% have the
           | side effects, it's like 80-90%.
           | 
           | But for the first time in decades, I felt full. I didn't want
           | to finish a meal, it was too much.
           | 
           | My body regulated my food intake in what felt like a natural
           | way.
           | 
           | I hadn't even realized my body had somehow lost that
           | fundamental mechanism of appetite control. It made me realize
           | I wasn't weak willed, something is different about my body
           | than other people.
           | 
           | But it comes with a price. The side effects I had were quite
           | bad and so I stopped (though I now read that if I switch to a
           | different brand, I might be ok).
           | 
           | I often didn't want to leave the house due to a dicky tummy.
           | It could come/go in waves. But often can last a whole week.
           | 
           | Plus you've got to inject yourself every week. Often you
           | can't drink as it makes you sick. Even when you're doing
           | everything 'right' you can feel a bit off.
           | 
           | If you do over-indulge (with food or drink) the side effects
           | can sometimes be massively amplified and you feel terrible
           | for days.
           | 
           | So amazing in some ways, but it's not like taking a vitamin
           | tablet. There are costs and making one slip up can result in
           | suddenly feeling awful for a day or two.
           | 
           | Perhaps I was just particularly prone to the side effects,
           | but it seems to happen to a lot of people (I found Mumsnet
           | threads about it useful, they are quite revealing as they
           | seem to be fairly honest and willing to share their
           | experiences)
        
             | loeg wrote:
             | I had more side effects ramping up the dose than after a
             | while at the same dose. But they were all fairly mild. (I'm
             | on 5mg/week of Tirzepatide; higher doses probably have more
             | side effects.)
             | 
             | > If you do over-indulge (with food or drink) the side
             | effects can sometimes be massively amplified and you feel
             | terrible for days.
             | 
             | Never had anything like that.
        
             | DrillShopper wrote:
             | The one thing that helped blunt the side effects for me was
             | cannabis. Just a few puffs at night on the three nights
             | after my injection made a huge difference.
             | 
             | I wouldn't recommend that to everyone, but it helped a lot
             | for me.
        
             | JoshTriplett wrote:
             | > As far as I can tell from forums, it's not like 5% have
             | the side effects, it's like 80-90%.
             | 
             | Happy people with no issues are less likely to post, or
             | post as often.
             | 
             | That said, much sympathy for the people who _do_ experience
             | particularly bad side effects.
        
             | sroussey wrote:
             | From the people I know on trizepitide, side effects were
             | strongest when upping the dosage in the protocol,
             | particularly two days after. The advice I have received
             | while considering it:
             | 
             | - change your diet. you can't eat the same food at the same
             | volume. or even is smaller volume if the food is a burger,
             | etc.
             | 
             | - watch your drinking, your tolerance for alcohol is reset,
             | and again on the volume thing
             | 
             | - drink a lot of water. apparently opposite to all the
             | volume warnings above, lol
             | 
             | - split dosage and inject twice a week. (i dunno, talk to
             | your doctor. also this only works when you have a vial and
             | not the auto-injectors, though apparently the autoinjectors
             | are way more expensive)
             | 
             | On the other hand, when i ask about what happens if you go
             | on a bender and eat two burgers and lots of fries and drink
             | a six pack?? From people that used to gladly do that:
             | "gross, why would i do that?" That there is the real
             | change.
        
         | linsomniac wrote:
         | >There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower
         | people's all cause mortality
         | 
         | Did I misread the article, my TL;DR of the article is that
         | GLP-1 reduce the indicators or mortality _without_ modifying
         | the actual mortality (because most users return to normal
         | indicators within about 2 years).
        
           | yumraj wrote:
           | > because most users return to normal indicators within about
           | 2 years
           | 
           | Because they stop taking GLP-1s after 1-2 years, not, it
           | seems, because the meds stop working.
        
           | readthenotes1 wrote:
           | "If we assume about 65% of people who start GLP-1 medications
           | _quit_ by the end of year one, that creates a big problem.
           | When someone stops the medication, they 'll usually regain
           | the weight they lost, and in two years, most of those key
           | health indicators (like BMI, blood pressure, blood sugar and
           | cholesterol) bounce back to their starting point. "
           | 
           | So in addition to the quitters returning back to normal after
           | they got life insurance underwritten when they were healthy,
           | we have the unknown of the longevity of people on the glp-1
           | drugs.
        
           | refulgentis wrote:
           | Subtly different: you read "most...return to normal...within
           | 2 years", it says "When _someone stops the medication_ ,
           | they'll [return to baseline]"
           | 
           | Then from there, I click through the 65% #, assuming they
           | have a good study on 65% of people stop after a year. Nah,
           | they don't. It's super complex but tl;dr: specific cohort,
           | and somehow the # getting on it in year 2 is higher than the
           | # of people who quit in year 1.
           | 
           | I have a weak to medium prior, after 10m evaluating, that the
           | entire thing might be built on more sand than it admits.
           | 
           | Lot of little slants that create an absolute tone - ex.
           | multiple payout _s_ over the  "lifetime" of a life insurance
           | policy. (sure, it's technically possible)
           | 
           | Also there's no citation for the idea this mortality slippage
           | happened because of GLP-1, and it's been out for...what...a
           | year? _Maybe_ two?
           | 
           | That's an awful lot of people who were about to die, saved in
           | the nick of time by...losing weight? Again, possible, I'm
           | sure it even happened in some cases.
           | 
           | Enough to skew mortality slippage from 5.3% to 15.3%?
           | 
           | I thought they were 98% accurate?
           | 
           | Wait...is the slippage graph _net life increase_ slippage? Or
           | _any_ slippage?
           | 
           | Because it's very strange this explosion happened in exactly
           | the year of a global pandemic that had sky-high mortality
           | rates for older people.
        
             | samus wrote:
             | Since it's so new, of course there aren't any long-term
             | data on GLP-1 takers. However, relying on prior knowledge
             | about people who are good on the metrics, it can be
             | presumed that they will do fine. And won't create financial
             | risk for the insurer due to passing on earlier than
             | expected. But only if they keep taking their meds and/or
             | fix any underlying behavioral and health issues that made
             | them obese in the first case!
             | 
             | Regarding the graph about slippage: yes, that looks like
             | the Covid peak. However, even assuming this recent trend is
             | an anomaly, the industry is in a changing landscape and
             | needs to adapt. New metrics and criteria, and the fastest
             | mover will capture the market. Business as usual.
             | 
             | I don't feel sad except for the people who managed to bring
             | their health issues under control and now can't get life
             | insurance.
        
               | alvah wrote:
               | GLP-1 isn't new - the first trials were 20 years ago &
               | there's a lot of long term data from its use in diabetes
               | management, prior to the weight loss application.
        
           | pie_flavor wrote:
           | No, it's a miracle drug that drops mortality by a ton. The
           | indicators aren't being faked. The weight causes the
           | mortality, and the weight loss reduces it, and the weight
           | regain reintroduces it. GLP1RAs introduce _some_ noise to the
           | indicators but not enough to cause what you 're implying.
        
           | dragonwriter wrote:
           | It's a maintenance medicine, not a cure, so if people stop
           | taking it, they return to the same problems they had without
           | it.
        
             | aetherson wrote:
             | And it's under-commented upon because it's
             | counterintuitive, but most people stop taking it. Like, two
             | year continuation of use is about 25%.
             | 
             | That's kinda wild, because it seems like holy shit if
             | you're taking a drug that lets you drop 10-20% of your body
             | weight from obese down to normal why would you stop taking
             | it, but people do.
        
               | catdog wrote:
               | Side effects? Also many might not be able to afford it
               | long term as it's quite expensive.
        
               | AndrewDucker wrote:
               | Cost is a big factor. When it becomes generic then I
               | suspect people will stay on it for a lot longer.
        
               | decimalenough wrote:
               | Because they're now "normal", so why would they continue
               | paying for it, taking unpleasant injections, and enduring
               | the side effects?
               | 
               | In this sense it's like any diet: they "work", but if you
               | don't permanently modify your food intake, the weight
               | comes back as soon as you go off the diet.
        
               | sroussey wrote:
               | Another way of putting it is that people achieve their
               | goals and wind down the usage of the drug that got them
               | there.
               | 
               | I think that in a few more years the number may stay at
               | 25% (or whatever) but that the makeup of the 25% may be
               | different. That is, people will go off it and back on it
               | if they see their progress reverse but that will happen
               | to different people at different times.
        
               | subscribed wrote:
               | Because the pharmacy will refuse to sell it to you.
               | 
               | Source: UK based friend who says the pharmacy will refuse
               | to sell them once they fall under BMI 25 (still
               | overweight). They'd prefer to be on the tiny maintenance
               | dose but it seems to be very hard to achieve (unless
               | you're going off the market completely).
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _if people stop taking it, they return to the same
             | problems they had without it_
             | 
             | Source? Everyone I know who stopped taking it rebounded a
             | bit, but not to where they were. And no literature shows
             | 100% rebound to my knowledge.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | I mean roughly in reference to the underlying mechanism
               | it directly addresses, not all the downstream effects.
               | And even that was, admittedly, sloppy, because there's
               | some complex feedback loops involved. I guess it would be
               | more accurate to say it is a maintenance medicine and not
               | a _complete_ cure, and so stopping taking it unmasks the
               | continuing condition that is treating.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _stopping taking it unmasks the continuing condition
               | that is treating_
               | 
               | Some of the prediabetics I knew who stopped taking it (N
               | = 2) stopped being prediabetic (N = 1).
        
         | loeg wrote:
         | They aren't even that awful in maintenance -- just expensive.
         | The unpleasant part is when you're increasing the dose. After a
         | while at the same dose, it's more or less unnoticeable IMO.
        
           | gregw134 wrote:
           | Unnoticable meaning doesn't have any effect at all, or just
           | no bad side effects?
        
         | zer00eyz wrote:
         | > And I'm guessing just based on my own experience paying for
         | term life that the actual premia differences aren't actually
         | enough in most cases for the life insurer to simply pay out of
         | pocket themselves; the differences probably add up to a few
         | hundred per year per customer, whereas a year's worth of a
         | GLP-1 agonist probably costs a couple thousand (for now, in
         | 2025, and probably dropping rapidly).
         | 
         | I wonder why life insurance isnt funding more research into
         | things like metformin, where we have amazing long standing data
         | but haven't done the real research. See:
         | https://www.afar.org/tame-trial
        
       | firesteelrain wrote:
       | I was on Mounjaro for two months. I was also dieting and walking
       | 10k steps a day. I lost 25 lb and my A1C went down to 5.0 from
       | 5.7. All my cholesterol numbers were in range. I stopped taking
       | it and lost 25 more. I haven't regained the weight. People who
       | gain it back did not learn the lesson and did not effectively
       | change their habits. You need the discipline - and a good support
       | system. But if you don't have that and continue old habits then
       | you will gain weight back. The original problem isn't solved.
        
         | Sparkle-san wrote:
         | Giving people the magic cheat code drug seems antithetical to
         | helping them develop the habits and discipline for long term
         | lifestyle change.
        
           | 44520297 wrote:
           | Why is obesity the only disease that taking medicine for is
           | "cheating"? Which is more important: instilling your
           | particular version of "discipline" into people, or saving
           | billions in healthcare costs and millions of lives from
           | suffering?
        
             | Group_B wrote:
             | It's usually a self inflicted disease. Your own actions
             | cause it most of the time
        
               | 44520297 wrote:
               | Which other self-inflicted medical conditions do we deny
               | medical care for?
        
               | animal_spirits wrote:
               | We prescribe alcoholics with medicine to help them curb
               | their alcohol intake, but if they do not learn the
               | discipline to not drink then they can end up back where
               | they started after getting off the medicine. But I don't
               | think either drugs for alcoholism or obesity should be
               | denied to anyone. However there are other tools to
               | supplement with to help learning discipline.
        
               | 44520297 wrote:
               | >However there are other tools to supplement with to help
               | learning discipline.
               | 
               | The current FDA guidelines support your assertion that
               | GLP1s should be prescribed in addition to other tools to
               | help people change their eating habits.
               | 
               | What the FDA does not prescribe is moralism, which is
               | what "help learning discipline" tends to imply. If you
               | didn't intend to frame your argument in terms of
               | moralism, you might consider a different word choice.
        
               | animal_spirits wrote:
               | Not sure how else to word it. "help people change their
               | habits" vs. discipline to change their habits - what's
               | charged about the word 'discipline'?
        
               | 44520297 wrote:
               | In English, we "instill discipline" in children. When we
               | talk to and about adults, we talk about the confluence of
               | factors that influence habits and help people change
               | them. Discipline implies that an adult, who is otherwise
               | fully functioning and subject to the demands of the
               | world, is lacking an essential attribute. Whatever you
               | might feel about this explanation, we already observe
               | from science and medicine that "instilling discipline" on
               | its own has not stalled the obesity epidemic.
        
               | Group_B wrote:
               | Good point. The main root cause of obesity is too many
               | calories. Usually, obesity and the symptoms / diseases
               | that come with it improve / go away when eating less
               | calories. Does any human technically need medication to
               | eat less calories?
        
               | 44520297 wrote:
               | > Does any human technically need medication to eat less
               | calories?
               | 
               | Chronically obese people, who are prescribed GLP1s to
               | enable them to eat fewer calories. Are you interested in
               | the reasons why people are unable to eat fewer calories
               | without medication? It's a pretty fascinating problem,
               | one that intersects genetics, environment, and culture.
        
               | mikhailt wrote:
               | Yes. Gut microbes has already been shown to have a great
               | impact on how we metabolize by what med we take, what we
               | eat or drink and intake from our environments (micro-
               | plastics, etc).
               | 
               | There is no single main root cause for obesity. We just
               | combine it as one because there isn't a lot of long term
               | research or funding for it right now. There is a lot of
               | sigma against obesity and people keep blaming other
               | people instead.
               | 
               | Thyroid hormone disorders have been linked to cause
               | weight gains. This can't be fixed by simply eating less,
               | it can literally do far more damage.
               | 
               | Medications have been linked to cause weight gain as side
               | effects. This wouldn't do anything to eat less until they
               | stop taking meds and for some, they cannot do that.
               | 
               | Americans' increasing desire for sweets have increased
               | the sugar content in all of our food including the fruits
               | and vegetables over time. We've intentionally bred our
               | healthy stuff to be sweeter. So eating less can make us
               | even more hungrier because we go into sugar crush without
               | realizing it. Changing diets is difficult without us
               | doing all sorts of calculations of finding the right
               | cheap healthy food at the right store and that is you are
               | lucky enough to have any.
        
             | bryant wrote:
             | People grew up making fun of others for being overweight.
             | Suddenly a medication making it treatable (and possibly
             | providing an explanation for why the prevalence of obesity
             | skyrockets in developed countries) validates the idea that
             | it's a medical condition.
             | 
             | Relatedly: it validates that people are assholes for making
             | fun of others who are overweight. And not many people like
             | feeling like an asshole.
             | 
             | Edit: starlevel004 is right.
        
               | Starlevel004 wrote:
               | Correction: Lots of people like feeling like an asshole.
               | They don't like being called out for it or being wrong.
        
             | Sparkle-san wrote:
             | Cheat code was probably not the best term for it, I'll
             | admit. I don't fault anyone for chosing to try GLP-1s and
             | the cause of obeseity isn't particularly on the individual
             | given the prevailance of ultra processed foods and car
             | transportation in our society. That all being said,
             | regaining most, if not all, the weight has been a
             | historical issue around weight loss treatments because
             | they're not durable. The way we're proceeding with GLP-1s
             | feels short-sighted and potentially unethical if we're
             | setting people up for rebound failure to line the pockets
             | of big pharma.
        
               | 44520297 wrote:
               | Would you say the same about blood pressure medications,
               | diabetes medications, cholesterol medications, thyroid
               | hormone replacement, antidepressants, mood stabilizers,
               | antipsychotics, anti-anxiety medications,
               | immunosuppressants, DMARDs, corticosteroids,
               | anticonvulsants, Parkinson's medications, multiple
               | sclerosis treatments, blood thinners, and heart failure
               | medications? All of them set people up for rebound
               | failure if they stop taking them for the chronic
               | condition they started them for.
        
               | Sparkle-san wrote:
               | I wouldn't group those together at all for the sake the
               | argument. Take antidepressants for example. We're at the
               | point of reexamining if we actually understand the
               | consequences of long term usage of them. My personal
               | experience was that my long term usage definitely came
               | with issues and it's taken me a few years to feel like my
               | emotional range has returned to a stabe baseline after
               | going off them. I likely would have been better off using
               | them short term. Depressiom is also quite similar to
               | obesity in the sense that helping people develop the
               | durable non-medical interventions while being treated
               | with drugs would go further than just treating them with
               | drugs alone.
               | 
               | Contrast this with Parkinson's which is a
               | neurodegenerative disease with no known non-pharmacutical
               | treatments and even the pharmacutical ones lose
               | effectiveness as it progresses as they only treat
               | symptoms, not the disease itself.
        
               | 44520297 wrote:
               | > go further than just treating them with drugs alone
               | 
               | This is precisely what the FDA guidance contains: that
               | GLP1s be mixed with lifestyle modifications.
        
             | kbelder wrote:
             | It's not. I'd put most addictions in that category. And
             | instilling discipline in people is a _good_ thing that
             | benefits them in myriad ways.
        
               | 44520297 wrote:
               | You are free to put addictions in whichever category you
               | prefer. The medical community does not: we treat
               | addiction with medication as well.
        
           | jchw wrote:
           | A lesson often learned painfully: in most cases there isn't a
           | reward for doing things the hard way. You could argue that a
           | magic weight loss drug will prevent people from making
           | important lifestyle changes, but all else equal, a magic drug
           | that helps you lose weight with seemingly no other downsides
           | is an obvious net win for health. Losing weight once you put
           | pounds on is hard, for both mental and physical reasons, and
           | even just being able to lose weight is probably a huge help
           | as it puts in reach what many consider to be intangible after
           | years of failure.
           | 
           | I haven't tried a GLP-1 agonist myself because I'm not
           | exactly severely overweight, but I do absolutely struggle to
           | keep weight off. It's amazing how easy it is to re-gain
           | weight and how hard it is to keep it off. If the worst side-
           | effect of GLP-1 agonists is that it makes life insurance
           | quotes harder, whatever; I think it's totally acceptable that
           | some people will still struggle with improving their habits,
           | I don't think it's likely to make it any worse. In my opinion
           | I suspect it is likely to make it a bit better, by helping
           | you break out of the cycle.
           | 
           | P.S.: since there is some neighboring discourse about whether
           | being fat is a disease or a lifestyle choice, I'll just say
           | this: I don't personally think it matters. I don't think
           | arguing this distinction will actually help anyone. I don't
           | really care for body positivity and I don't make excuses for
           | my poor habits or being overweight, but I still don't think
           | it makes losing weight much easier.
        
           | saturneria wrote:
           | You could apply this same stupid logic to many medications.
           | 
           | Blood pressure medication comes to mind.
        
             | padjo wrote:
             | People have to believe in free will or they go crazy.
             | Admitting that we're just a bag of hormones and electric
             | signals means our whole system of morality is built on sand
             | and that's a scary door to open.
        
           | mikhailt wrote:
           | That's a great idea!
           | 
           | Can you show me what we're doing in USA to help children and
           | people develop the habits and discipline for long term
           | lifestyle change?
           | 
           | Because I've never learned anything about nutrition, macros,
           | high sugar content and all of the healthy food I should learn
           | to eat on my own.
           | 
           | We did not have home classes in any of my education in US at
           | all, they were a thing in the past but that wasn't a thing in
           | my middle hs or hs or college at all in NY in 90s/2000s.
           | 
           | All of my bad habits were from my parents and they were not
           | good eaters.
        
             | firesteelrain wrote:
             | Yep, that's key. That's the lesson I learned as I commented
             | above as GP.
             | 
             | My work offered me five visits with a dietician and then I
             | got a health coach and a nurse all paid for and monitoring
             | me on the side through the Vida service. Not everyone has
             | that
        
           | DrillShopper wrote:
           | I'd be okay with that so long as nobody can have Nicorette,
           | the birth control pill, or Viagra. I don't have a problem
           | refraining from smoking, I've never gotten pregnant, and my
           | dick works, so it must be some innate discipline in me that
           | others must learn, so no meds for them.
           | 
           | See how ridiculous that sounds?
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | Giving people the magic antibiotic cheat code seems
           | antithetical to helping them develop habits and discipline to
           | avoid bacterial infection.
        
           | arp242 wrote:
           | Depends on your circumstances. If you're a bit overweight and
           | want to lose weight: it's perhaps not helpful. If you're
           | obese and everything just seems hopeless: fuck it - do
           | anything that will bring your weight down to a manageable
           | level first, and _then_ start working on habit and lifestyle
           | changes. Energy levels, the motivation of seeing progress,
           | and that type of thing are _hugely_ important.
        
         | petesergeant wrote:
         | > People who gain it back did not learn the lesson and did not
         | effectively change their habits. You need the discipline
         | 
         | This is deeply misguided. I'm glad that the little assist was
         | enough for you, but if "healthy habits" were enough then people
         | who'd lost weight the traditional way would keep it off.
         | 
         | Further, unless you've been off it for more than six months,
         | I'd hold your judgement on this one.
        
           | firesteelrain wrote:
           | I have been off since Oct 2024. Also, I did continue to lose
           | weight the traditional way.
           | 
           | After I stopped, a coworker told me about Vida which my work
           | offers as a health benefit.
           | 
           | Using the Vida service where I got a registered dietician to
           | show me what to eat, I tracked my food and water intake and
           | tracked my exercise. I had protein and fiber goals to hit.
           | 
           | You can't do it all on the medicine - it is a lifestyle
           | change. The medicine was the catalyst but not the reason I
           | kept the weight off. I wanted it. But because I wanted it, I
           | wanted to use the support system that my work paid for.
           | 
           | I think there is a lesson to be learned here
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | > but if "healthy habits" were enough then people who'd lost
           | weight the traditional way would keep it off.
           | 
           | That's because a lot of the "traditional way" methods are
           | pseudoscience at best, outright quackery that's going to send
           | you into serious malnutrition issues or eating disorders at
           | worst. Every two or three months you see a new diet fad
           | pushed through the yellow press rags, and none of it anywhere
           | near being considered scientifically valid - usually it's
           | some VIP shilling some crap story to explain how they lost
           | weight, of course without telling the people that they have
           | the time for training and the money to pay for proper food,
           | 1:1 training and bloodwork analysis.
        
             | GLdRH wrote:
             | I would have thought the "traditional way" would simply be
             | eat less, move more (by changing your habits of course).
        
               | firesteelrain wrote:
               | GLP-1 makes you want to eat less. So you are correct.
        
           | vkazanov wrote:
           | I know some serious cases where there were non-habitual
           | problems but... "healthy habits" is nothing to laugh about.
           | People literally are what their habits are. All of our
           | behaviour is habits, and changing behaviour takes time and
           | effort.
           | 
           | The good news is that it is not impossible, and it really is
           | possible to change bit by bit for most people suffering from
           | obesity.
           | 
           | I don't think somebody who walks 10k+ a day, maybe goes to
           | gym a couple of time a week, limits calorie intake to a
           | comfortable and reasonable 2000 kcal per day, would suddenly
           | bounce back to 130kg!
        
         | furyofantares wrote:
         | How long ago was this?
        
           | firesteelrain wrote:
           | I started in Aug 2024 and stopped in Oct 2024. I paid for it
           | from one of the pharmacies that made it in Florida. I
           | injected myself with insulin needles that they send you.
        
             | consp wrote:
             | Depends on your ultimate high's. That's a pretty good
             | indication of diabetes (any form).
             | 
             | I've had pretty good hb1ac's when my blood sugar's were all
             | over the place and in no way healthy.
        
         | apwell23 wrote:
         | suprised your a1c was only 5.7 despite being obese .
        
           | firesteelrain wrote:
           | From what I understand you don't have to be obese and have
           | type 2 diabetes. In my case, I was obese and did not have
           | diabetes but I might have been going down that road
        
         | nerevarthelame wrote:
         | This is akin to saying a severely anxious person should be able
         | to take an SSRI for a few months, learn how to change their
         | thinking, and stay off antidepressants for the rest of their
         | life. So simple. Must be their fault if they can't pull it off.
         | 
         | Perhaps that works for some people. I'm glad it seems to have
         | worked for you. But the facts of the world we live in show that
         | it doesn't work for most. "Learn the lesson and be
         | disciplined!" is not effective advice.
        
           | firesteelrain wrote:
           | The analogy to your example is that someone who has to take
           | Mounjaro for diabetes will always have to take it even after
           | losing say 100 pounds. Or Metaformin even.
           | 
           | GLP-1 in those cases helps manage the problem better.
           | 
           | But for those who are not in those cases where Type 2
           | Diabetes has sunk in, then they need to use the opportunity
           | to get better while on it and kick themselves into high gear
           | or they will have learned nothing from the experience
        
           | treyd wrote:
           | That _is_ the _ideal_ model for treatment of those types of
           | mental health disorders. Often patients have blockers that
           | prevent them from resolving underlying issues. But through a
           | drug they can get into a headspace that allows them to work
           | through them with talk therapy, and then learn new habits and
           | eventually go off the drug.
           | 
           | In practice, this doesn't happen that often, no, but it's a
           | theoretical goal. Probably because we're in the pre-GLP-1 era
           | with regard to mental health meds. Maybe that will change.
        
           | make3 wrote:
           | I feel like your example shows the inverse of what you want.
           | SSRI are actually great at helping the person develop healthy
           | mechanisms (compared to GLP-1s), because they reduce the mood
           | swings & negative thoughts, allowing the person to be more
           | productive & be more involved in their therapy, in reading,
           | journaling, doing sports, etc. It's just that it might take
           | two or three years and not months, which is fine because SSRI
           | also have much more limited side effects than GLP-1s.
           | 
           | GLP-1s don't do that directly.. but at least they might help
           | people move more, and give them confidence to do more for
           | their health instead of seeing it as a lost cause.
        
         | jstummbillig wrote:
         | > People who gain it back did not learn the lesson
         | 
         | Considering it took you a miracle drug to learn the lesson,
         | that seems like a humorously arrogant take.
        
         | arp242 wrote:
         | I lost almost 15 kg (~33 lbs) over the last two months and I
         | didn't even try that hard. I never had problems with my weight,
         | but over the last few years it slowly crept up to ~107kg (at
         | ~1.95cm), at which point I realised I had to do something.
         | Reasonably sure I could do a The Machinist Christian Bale if I
         | wanted to.
         | 
         | I also quit smoking with relatively little effort twice (once
         | in my early 20s, and then again a few years ago after I picked
         | up smoking again during COVID). It wasn't easy-easy, but if I
         | hear the struggles some other people go through, it was
         | relatively easy.
         | 
         | Some people are just wired different. I have plenty of other
         | issues, but on this sort of thing, for whatever reason I seem
         | to be lucky.
        
       | almosthere wrote:
       | so surreal reading comments... a month after non-stop threads
       | about glp causing a billion issues, everyone is talking about how
       | wonderful they are again.
       | 
       | humanity
        
         | brokensegue wrote:
         | billion issues? i saw some reporting on rare cases of
         | blindness. what else?
        
           | paulpauper wrote:
           | 1-2 years ago there was considerable skepticism about "taking
           | the easy way out" or unforeseen risks like like with
           | Fenfluramine/phentermine. Now sentiment has changed given
           | that more people realize these drugs are safe and effective.
        
           | octo888 wrote:
           | Pancreas issues and hair loss IIRC?
        
         | nwienert wrote:
         | It's a once in a generation drug with less side effects than
         | most OTC, likely net positive even for healthy weight people.
         | I'd bet within the decade it'll be approved for a whole basket
         | of other benefits - at the least a whole array of immune system
         | disfunctions and a cure-all for addiction.
         | 
         | Likely protective of a wide array of internal organs, likely
         | life extending.
        
         | saturneria wrote:
         | What is well studied and has a billion issues is obesity.
         | 
         | Imagine that, people make up bullshit that isn't grounded in
         | reality. Who would have thought!
        
       | throwaway019254 wrote:
       | Is there any research on whether GLP-1s are also beneficial for
       | generally healthy and not overweight people?
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | More sensationalism. Insurers can simply adjust the policy
       | accordingly to account for patients discontinuing the drug. They
       | can also raise premiums if patients go off the drug, and there
       | can be a cluse that stipulates this. This is literally the job of
       | an actuary to reprice premiums . Insurers take a short-term hit
       | and then adjust premiums to ensure it never happens again. This
       | happened with California fire risk for example. Moreover, this
       | drug will not increase life expectancy by that much even with
       | lifetime patient compliance. The majority of obese people
       | ,especially men, who take these drugs will still be overweight or
       | obese, but just not as much as before.
        
       | wjnc wrote:
       | The article is missing some key points about insurance. An ideal
       | book balances mortality and longevity risks. This cancels out the
       | risk GLP-1s or many other actuarial shifts in mortality. Insurers
       | swap risks, reinsure risks etc to move towards an ideal book.
       | Nice products to balance are pensions and longevity. Problem is
       | that the scale is quite different on a per policy basis, and also
       | very location specific.
       | 
       | The article also misses regarding slippage is that Swiss Re in
       | the link calls it a modest increase And that is mainly due to
       | insurers Not performing the same level of medical intake
       | (accelerated versus full underwriting). Increased competition
       | leads to less profits. That's pretty straightforward and not per
       | se GLP-1s related.
       | 
       | And then the kicker. For not diversified portfolios of mortality
       | risks. Those have been massively profitable for decades, in line
       | with the general increase in age and health. GLP-1s just expands
       | on that profitable aspect. Did I mention that the long term
       | expected rate of return on an insurers book is quite good?
       | 
       | Insurers can weather a bit of slippage. Reinsurers will kick the
       | worst offenders back in line with their AUC performance, because
       | without diversification Or reinsurance it's hard to stay in the
       | market. (Capital requirements strongly favor diversification.
       | Mono line is very hard.) That's why Swiss Re is bringing out such
       | rigorous studies of detailed policy events. Signaling to the
       | reinsurance markets and the insurance companies and their
       | actuaries!
        
       | mcherm wrote:
       | If insurers are suffering from "mortality slippage" because some
       | of their customers purchased insurance while on GLP-1s then later
       | discontinue the medication, then there must also be "mortality
       | slippage" in the opposite direction. There must be customers who
       | were not on GLP-1s when they purchased insurance, but could go on
       | them, extending their lives in a way that is very profitable to
       | the life insurance companies.
       | 
       | Furthermore, there are more people not on GLP-1s than on them
       | (even with the recent surge in popularity) so this population
       | that can give life insurance companies "excess" profits must
       | outnumber those the article describes where the insurance company
       | takes a loss.
       | 
       | Why can't they focus on this profit opportunity?
        
       | poulpy123 wrote:
       | cry more
        
       | jakubmazanec wrote:
       | > When someone stops the medication, they'll usually regain the
       | weight they lost
       | 
       | Source? I agree that _some_ people will regain the weight, but
       | "usually" is an unfounded (without some data) generalization.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | It's variable. some regain all, other regain less. But they
         | basically all regain some.
        
         | catdog wrote:
         | It probably depends if they also change eating habits. If they
         | change nothing regaining the weight is no surprise.
        
         | arp242 wrote:
         | It's linked in the article.
        
       | jamesgill wrote:
       | In 2023, the life insurance industry took in >$3 _trillion_
       | dollars in premiums.
       | 
       | That same year, it paid out roughly $800B in claims.
       | 
       | TL;DR: there's no violin tiny enough for me to play for the life
       | insurance industry's 'woes'.
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | yes, there is a reason why BRK.A/B stock has done so well ,even
         | while sitting in tons of cash. Geico is a cash cow.
        
       | kylecordes wrote:
       | Seems like insurers should be rating based on your worst health
       | markers, including weight, over the last N years rather than just
       | a current point-in-time snapshot. Someone who somehow has no
       | medical records over the last few years at all that would capture
       | any of that data would be priced on the assumption the past was
       | possibly worse than current.
        
         | GLdRH wrote:
         | I don't know the situation in the USA, but in Europe you
         | wouldn't find many young (up to ~35) people who have data on
         | any health markers. And these are the main market.
        
       | refulgentis wrote:
       | Is the slippage graph just for _net life increase_ slippage?
       | 
       | Or any slippage?
       | 
       | It caught my eye this explosion in slippage happened years before
       | GLP-1s, and exactly in the year of a global pandemic that had
       | sky-high mortality rates for older people.
        
       | loeg wrote:
       | I think it's unlikely that the quoted 65% of GLP-1 users will go
       | off the drug and resume their unhealthy lifestyle as the drugs go
       | off patent and become more affordable. It's not super
       | inconvenient to stay on, just expensive (today, using the name
       | brand formulations). Users benefit from good health more than
       | they benefit from deceiving life insurers.
        
       | stego-tech wrote:
       | Now expand this to other treatments: HIV, PreP,
       | depression/anxiety, ADD, ADHD, you name it. We've had data for
       | decades that adherence is the key factor in successfully lowering
       | mortality and increasing quality of life, which in turn increases
       | duration of _productive_ life, which in turn lowers costs in the
       | long run as more people live healthier, longer, more productive
       | lives.
       | 
       | The problem continues to be the pharmaceutical and health
       | insurance industries, particularly in the West. Under pressure to
       | deliver infinite growth forever to shareholders on a quarterly
       | basis, companies have a vested interest in making _less_
       | medication at a _higher price_ , and lobbying the government to
       | prohibit price negotiations while mandating insurance coverage
       | for many of these drugs.
       | 
       | GLP-1s might be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back,
       | but there's decades of research - and bodies - saying this over,
       | and over, and _over_ again.
       | 
       | Which reminds me: I need to call my new health insurance company
       | to get them to cover my medication, and hopefully extend it to 90
       | day supplies. Because god forbid that just be an automatic thing
       | for someone who's taken the same medication daily in some form
       | for a decade without adherence issues.
        
       | jeremynixon wrote:
       | This blog post is flawed. "Life insurers can predict when you'll
       | die with about 98% accuracy." Is not even properly framed and is
       | found nowhere in the cited report.
       | 
       | Predictions of when you will die need a range in order to be
       | attached to a number like accuracy. The attached report is not
       | about this but about population-level mortality trends.
        
         | dzhiurgis wrote:
         | Yeah was skimming that report too and it doesn't look even
         | related to that claim.
        
       | Jimmc414 wrote:
       | If GLP-1s are working for people, why do they quit taking them?
        
         | 44520297 wrote:
         | Cost.
        
         | technocratius wrote:
         | They are very expensive
        
         | degamad wrote:
         | It is well known that people are bad at taking drugs that work
         | for them. This is particularly well studied when it comes to
         | heart medication, the kind where you take it regularly or you
         | die, and yet adherence is often around 50%.
         | 
         | From a quick search, Jarrah et al. (2023) "Medication Adherence
         | and Its Influencing Factors among Patients with Heart Failure:
         | A Cross Sectional Study" [0] discusses some of the relevant
         | details.
         | 
         | [0] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10224223/
        
       | theideaofcoffee wrote:
       | And nothing of value was lost. These industries, insurance in
       | particular, pharma coming in a close second, are just parasites,
       | sucking the vitality out of everything by their sick rent seeking
       | and giving crumbs, if that, in return. The faster they can be
       | torn down and liquidated, the better. Maybe helping the overall
       | population boost their wellness with more-or-less miracle drugs
       | like GLP-1s can hasten that.
        
       | fnord77 wrote:
       | > Life insurers can predict when you'll die with about 98%
       | accuracy.
       | 
       | I saw this:
       | 
       | https://media.nmfn.com/tnetwork/lifespan/index.html#0
       | 
       | is there anything better?
        
         | arp242 wrote:
         | Looking at the link they give for it, the 98% accuracy isn't
         | for individuals but for aggregate data. That is: they can't
         | predict with 98% accuracy when you or I will die, but they can
         | with a sufficiently large group which averages out all the
         | noise. The phrasing in the article is somewhat unfortunate.
        
       | jtrn wrote:
       | Clinical psychologist here in Norway, and just my subjective
       | experience: People stop GLP1 agonists for the following reasons,
       | in descending order: - They want to enjoy eating again. -
       | Medications are a hassle. - Worry about long-term effects, even
       | if there is no alarming evidence for now. - Price (we are a
       | spoiled/rich country). - Other (like hating needles, feeling bad
       | for taking medications that others need more, being aggressively
       | lazy).
       | 
       | Often, I think that it's a bad move, as the clinical effect of
       | losing around 20 kg would have to be matched by some extremely
       | high frequency and severe side effects. Overweight is still not
       | sufficiently appreciated for how dangerous it is, especially
       | after they ramped up production so much that there isn't a real
       | shortage anymore.
       | 
       | Ironically, most of the people who respond well to Ozempic and
       | stay on it have few psychiatric problems. But those who almost
       | desperately want to get off it after a while might be those who
       | have a psychological component to their overeating. The obvious
       | suspect then is eating as emotional regulation. So one could
       | extrapolate, at least as a hypothesis, that the ones who have
       | worse life expectancy due to regained weight after a year of
       | usage are the ones who have a double set of problems stacked
       | against them: overweight and emotional problems. That would have
       | a huge effect on longevity.
       | 
       | This is PURE free association though, no deep analysis behind it.
        
         | k__ wrote:
         | How much does it cost right now?
         | 
         | Are there any alternatives coming out soon or generics?
        
           | jtrn wrote:
           | For semaglutide, the newest and most potent GLP1.
           | 
           | United States: The main patent is expected to expire around
           | 2032. Monthly Price: $950 - $1,350+ (cash price without
           | insurance)
           | 
           | Norway: The main patent is expected to expire around 2031.
           | Monthly Price: $109 - $301 (cash price equivalent in USD)
        
             | thatnerdyguy wrote:
             | I'll note that in the US that 1000+ is the "list price".
             | For those paying out of pocket, both zepbound and wegovy
             | offer coupons available to anyone taking it down to $500
             | (and I'll note that discounted price keeps coming down,
             | slowly, as well)
        
           | chhxdjsj wrote:
           | Grey market from China is around $250/year for tirzepatide
           | 
           | There are group chats with tens of thousands of people and I
           | havent seen any issues with the drug
        
         | OptionOfT wrote:
         | Did you see a decrease in people gambling / drinking when on
         | the medication?
         | 
         | N=1, I'm on ZepBound and in general my brain is less likely to
         | give in to things that give instant satisfaction.
        
           | jtrn wrote:
           | Actually yes. Not as much as with ADHD medication, but
           | obvious subset of addictive personalities that have relief
           | from addictive behaviors (beyond eating addiction) with
           | semiglutide.
        
       | Neywiny wrote:
       | No mention of Common Side Effects in the discussion? It was
       | pretty predictable (at least for someone healthcare-field
       | [discovery + regulation]-adjacent all my life), but touched on
       | the notion that the miracle wonder drugs are a provider's worst
       | nightmare. It's a business
        
       | aredox wrote:
       | Mortality slippage has also exploded since the COVID pandemic
       | started... And again, nobody seems to wonder if somehow, a virus
       | that invades the whole body (not just a respiratory virus),
       | repeatedly, is causing death by a thousand cuts...
       | 
       | The blind spot related to COVID is huge. There are lots of health
       | data going haywire since 2020 and everyone seems to find any
       | other reason but COVID for it.
        
       | brap wrote:
       | Just want to share my own experience since were doing it:
       | 
       | Took Wegovy (Semaglutide) for about 6 months. Barely lost any
       | weight, would occasionally get nauseous.
       | 
       | Then the doc switched me to Mounjaro (Tirzepatide) + Phentermine,
       | and holy shit, I just don't feel like eating, almost ever. Lost
       | 20kg in 6 months, which is all I needed to lose, never had any
       | side effects. None.
       | 
       | I did feel a little weird/buzzed the first time I took
       | Phentermine, but it went away the next day.
       | 
       | I feel like for many people it's not really the physical hunger
       | that makes them fat, it's that annoying voice in your head
       | telling you to snack something for no reason at all. It sometimes
       | felt almost like drug addiction.
       | 
       | Tirz+Phent are great for that.
        
       | twilo wrote:
       | "mortality slippage" coincides with Sars2 circulating within our
       | population so I bet it has a lot to do with it
        
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