[HN Gopher] Tesla's energy storage business gets sucked into the...
___________________________________________________________________
Tesla's energy storage business gets sucked into the company's
downward spiral
Author : rntn
Score : 74 points
Date : 2025-07-02 19:38 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (techcrunch.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (techcrunch.com)
| sokoloff wrote:
| With all the noise and uncertainty around tariffs and resulting
| supply chain disruptions, I'm surprised it's _only down_ 0.8GWh
| (7.7%)
|
| Maybe they're running installs months behind sales and worse
| quarters are ahead.
| tonyedgecombe wrote:
| According to the article the broader market is expanding.
| sokoloff wrote:
| The way I read that paragraph is that _Q1_ (the _prior_
| quarter) set a record overall, but it's not clear whether
| tariffs hurt others in Q2 as it was in Q2 when Tesla's
| installs fell 7.7% QoQ despite having slight growth YoY in
| Q2.
| malshe wrote:
| Tesla's installs fell in Q1 too: For the second consecutive
| quarter, deployments of its Powerwall and Megapack
| stationary storage products have declined, according to
| stats released by Tesla.
| sokoloff wrote:
| For Q1, Tesla installs were down 5.5% quarter-on-quarter
| but up 156% (to 2.56x) versus the same quarter a year
| prior.
| jmyeet wrote:
| TSLA continues its years-long trend of not only defying
| fundamentals. Here are, off the top of my head, the current,
| serious risks to Tesla:
|
| - Brand damage done to typical Tesla buyers and in countries that
| subsidize EVs;
|
| - Downturn in sales in Q1 and likely future continued declines;
|
| - Likely loss of the EV tax credit in the US;
|
| - A likely upcoming recession with (currently) one quarter of
| negative GDP growth;
|
| - Tariff risks;
|
| - Competition, particularly from Chinese automakers;
|
| - Supply chain risks; and
|
| - Risks to the Tesla business in China as political and tariff
| fallout as the administration seeks to ratchet up a trade war
| with China.
|
| Yet Tesla still trades at a P/# of 173.
|
| TSLA is a bet on Elon. That's it. But it won't be because of any
| fundamental success in the business. It'll be a question of how
| much looting of government coffers it can do.
|
| Elon has realized he needs to diversify the business, hence the
| robotaxis. My bet is that will never go GA and likely will kill
| or seriously wound someone and get sued out of existence.
| k8sToGo wrote:
| You forgot the software risks. Other companies already passed
| them.
| rickydroll wrote:
| If Tesla's board of directors had any cojones, they would dump
| Musk and distance themselves from him and his actions.
| baggachipz wrote:
| He owns them all, they would never even consider firing him.
| marcusverus wrote:
| As the parent said, Tesla's PE ratio indicates that investors
| are betting on massive future growth, obviously because of
| Elon's track record of delivering on his promises of new tech
| (....eventually). If getting rid of Elon caused Tesla to be
| priced like other car companies, the price would go down by
| 90+%.
|
| No sane board member would consider that a serious option.
| sokoloff wrote:
| Board members are also significant shareholders, so they'd
| be tanking their own position (and would be hard to argue
| if they sold out shortly before distancing him that they
| had no insider knowledge of it).
| darth_avocado wrote:
| They are in a tough spot re:Elon. While long term, distancing
| Tesla from Elon and focusing on developing better EVs that
| out compete BYD, Xiaomi and other Chinese competitors would
| be the healthy move, they also realize that the company's
| unreal valuation is completely tied to Elon and his made up
| storylines that never get delivered (FSD, Semi, Roadster 2,
| 4680 battery etc.). Dumping Elon would wipe out hundreds of
| Billions in shareholder value and the lawsuits would be
| brutal.
| rickydroll wrote:
| What do they say in most commercials about investing? Oh
| yes, "Investing in securities carries the risk of loss."
|
| They could sideline him, perhaps put him in an oubliette
| for a while, then make some serious improvements to the
| current product line and start cultivating a culture of
| working without Musk.
| darth_avocado wrote:
| I agree with the sentiment, however the board has
| fiduciary responsibilities towards the shareholders. If
| they make decisions that materially affect the company,
| in this case by destroying the valuation, then the
| shareholders can sue.
|
| It will be extremely difficult for the board to justify
| that having Elon and letting him do whatever he wants is
| more damaging for the stock than kicking him out.
| tayo42 wrote:
| > his made up storylines that never get delivered
|
| I don't get who is still out there believes him enough to
| put their own money into this company. But the stock keeps
| going up. I just don't get it?
| LightBug1 wrote:
| That's the only way I'd even have a second thought about
| Tesla ... but this is the cost of being all-powerful ... the
| inability to give up that power.
|
| Even then, Tesla's duck is cooked. They're facing strong
| winds, reputational and otherwise, at the exact same time as
| the competition have come of age.
|
| The perfect storm. It will take time, but Tesla are done.
| lemoncucumber wrote:
| Also the risk of their unproven approach of not using lidar for
| self driving, unlike every competing self-driving system.
| lovich wrote:
| you're forgetting domestic political risks as he has chosen to
| fight the admin now
| nirav72 wrote:
| I'm not sure what Elon stands to gain by taking on the admin.
| Sure Elon has piles of cash to dump on various congressional
| races. But that's about it. On the other side, Trump
| currently has the full power of the U.S government to take
| apart Elon's empire. Including Elon. He is better off making
| amends and focus on his businesses. Even if he does lose out
| because of the BBB.
| standardUser wrote:
| > he needs to diversify the business, hence the robotaxis
|
| The robotaxis are the biggest risk of all. It's not a "hence"
| that can be relied on for a win and to change the conversation.
| It's a huge embarrassment and a reminder of Musk's repeated
| false promises.
| sneak wrote:
| 75% of the trips I take in my Model 3 across a standard US
| city (admittedly one without snow) are handled by FSD with no
| interventions on my part.
|
| Waymo has of course been operating for some time now.
|
| I think autonomous taxis are inevitable for Tesla and others.
| martinpw wrote:
| > 75% of the trips I take in my Model 3 across a standard
| US city (admittedly one without snow) are handled by FSD
| with no interventions on my part.
|
| Is that meant to be making a case for Tesla's robotaxis?
| Because 25% of trips requiring interventions sounds dismal
| for a service that is rolling out now.
| standardUser wrote:
| Automatous vehicles are absolutely inevitable and Waymo has
| completely lapped Tesla. It's not impossible for Tesla to
| catch up, but it's not likely. Their tech is insufficient,
| their public record is non-existent, and Musk is famously
| inept at working with the many local governments and
| bureaucracies he needs to appease if he ever hopes to start
| pilots in the biggest markets. Meanwhile, Waymo is maybe a
| year away from becoming the Kleenex brand of driverless
| taxis, with over 10 million rides sold and a truckload of
| bureaucratic good will already built up.
| chankstein38 wrote:
| That "dark cloud hanging over Tesla" has a name.
| asteroidburger wrote:
| Has a weird odor to it, wouldn't you say? A sort of musk,
| perhaps?
| SlowTao wrote:
| It hangs around for a while, like far longer than it should,
| almost Elon-gated.
| jeffbee wrote:
| Being a white-label outlet for Panasonic batteries in North
| America is not an amazing business, especially if you set your
| own brand on fire.
| Alupis wrote:
| The "downward spiral" of Tesla is _greatly_ exaggerated - almost
| entirely by those who _hate_ the CEO 's politics and therefore
| irrationally _hate_ anything near him.
|
| Most of your other "big" car companies are also experiencing
| down-trending sales. Perhaps not the the same percentage as
| Tesla, but as soon as people are told to hate something/someone
| else, sales will go back like they always have. People have a
| short attention span - and only a minority of people wear their
| politics around as some sort of identity. An even smaller
| minority of the people cheering on the "downward spiral" of Tesla
| were ever going to be a Tesla customer (ie. a luxury brand car
| buyer).
|
| The "downward spiral" of Tesla is _greatly_ exaggerated.
| 9283409232 wrote:
| It is and isn't. Tesla's downward spiral gets more media
| traction than other companies but that doesn't change the fact
| it is in a downward spiral. I may be one of the few people that
| read Tesla's recent financials and they are completely propped
| up by two things: Tesla holds a lot of Bitcoin which increased
| in value and other companies buy carbon credits from Tesla
| which is a large source of revenue for them. If either of these
| two things were to change, Tesla would be in a very bad
| situation. Rumor is that Trump is trying to kill the entire
| carbon credit thing. This would be a disaster for Tesla.
| bradfa wrote:
| Honda Q2 sales are up year over year, and not just slightly.
| Figures came out today: https://hondanews.com/en-US/honda-
| corporate/releases/release...
| erulabs wrote:
| Well to be fair the new civic hybrid is a really fantastic
| car at a great price and exactly what most car buyers need.
| And additionally their model Y competitor the Passport is
| very nice and well priced.
|
| I'd consider Honda a bit of an outlier considering the
| quality of their offering this year.
| verteu wrote:
| > Most of your other "big" car companies are also experiencing
| down-trending sales.
|
| But they're priced at P/E of 7, while TSLA is P/E of 170.
|
| Negative growth at 170 P/E is... Much, much worse than negative
| growth at P/E of 7.
| ASinclair wrote:
| Is Tesla's stock priced like other "big" car companies
| experiencing down-trending sales?
| mr_toad wrote:
| > only a minority of people wear their politics around as some
| sort of identity
|
| A minority perhaps, but not an economically insignificant one.
| The sales of MAGA hats show that a significant number of people
| _literally_ wear their politics as a form of identity.
| matthewdgreen wrote:
| If you're at a 180+ P/E and you're not growing, you're in big
| trouble.
| yongjik wrote:
| > only a minority of people wear their politics around as some
| sort of identity
|
| I think you accidentally hit the nail on the head here. Yes,
| only a minority of people do that, and Musk is one of them!
| Which is a problem when your job is selling cars to people.
| blipvert wrote:
| Go fash, lose cash.
| foxglacier wrote:
| This article really needs to be a graph. From what I can make
| out:
|
| 2023 average quarter 15.7 GWh / 4 = 3.9 GWh [1]
|
| 2024 average quarter 31.4 GWh / 4 = 7.85 GWh
|
| 2024 Q4 11 GWh
|
| 2025 Q1 10.4 GWh
|
| 2025 Q2 9.6 GWh
|
| So I guess it's up from the same time last year but down from the
| peak Q4 2024? Maybe it's seasonal and it's actually growing not
| shrinking?? The numbers also don't distinguish between
| residential and utility installs. Maybe they had one huge utility
| customer in Q4 2024 that distorted everything?
|
| [1] https://www.energytrend.com/news/20250115-49006.html
| ProllyInfamous wrote:
| After helping take one apart, I definitely wouldn't ever
| recommend opening/servicing a Tesla PowerWall Two [0]
|
| [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TvZG7o3F7Y
|
| Seems like the engineering/design/safety is lacking.
| BSOhealth wrote:
| Not unfair coverage. If your company is trading with a PE of 181
| and your YoY sales have been decreasing at greater rates YoY (and
| we're literally only talking about 400k cars, equals a >trillion
| valuation?), you deserve more scrutiny than many others, at
| least.
| teslaq wrote:
| Perhaps the bad karma of DOGE/Elon being responsible for
| 14million impending deaths
|
| https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/01/politics/us-aid-elimination-s...
| slashdev wrote:
| That's pure propaganda, those numbers are wildly inflated
| teslaq wrote:
| The Lancet, which came up with the estimates, is an
| internationally respected publication https://www.thelancet
| .com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
|
| Also, ten separate global institutions co-authored this
| page -- is the conspiracy to inflate deathcount that wide-
| ranging? What factors on the Lancet's paper are you
| objecting to specifically?
|
| a Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of
| Bahia, Bahia, Brazil b ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain c
| Facultat de Medicina i Ciencies de la Salut, Universitat de
| Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain d Paediatrics Department,
| Hospital Sant Joan de Deu, Universitat de Barcelona,
| Barcelona, Spain e Fundacao Ariel Glaser, Maputo,
| Mozambique f Centro de Investigacao em Saude de Manhica,
| Maputo, Mozambique g ICREA, Barcelona, Spain h Institut
| Clinic de Medicina I Dermatologia, Hospital Clinic de
| Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain i CIBER de Epidemiologia y
| Salud Publica, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| j University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
| Say the number is inflated. How many attributable deaths is
| sufficient to be angry?
| passwordoops wrote:
| Thing is, rational people have been pointing this out for a
| decade (at least). The spiral has much less to do with
| fundamentals than politics. And now that Elon and Trump are
| back at it, Tesla has both sides of the aisle suddenly
| scrutinizing the company
| didip wrote:
| Too bad. It's the booming part of the business.
|
| PW3 not compatible with PW2 is another bone-headed decision. I
| would have bought one if I can daisy chain PW3 to PW2.
| kkfx wrote:
| Well... A personal take as someone who build his own domestic
| p.v. power plant with storage:
|
| - 99% of what's available on the market is NOT meant to be
| integrated, and that's a big break. I have and EV with a 400V
| battery and there are on sale p.v. inverters supporting 400V
| batteries with BMS canbus comms. There is NO DAMN REASON why my
| car can't be a powerful and big extra battery for my home, just
| no one have done so, because grid operators dislike semi
| autonomous people...
|
| - despite having many open stuff Tesla is a self-contained
| ecosystem, which is in general a bad thing and in particular if
| they do not offer nothing really complete in their own garden. I
| do want V2L and V2H for my EV, at least many EVs offer the
| former. Not Tesla.
|
| - heat pumps and cold/hot water storage could enable a big energy
| savings well integrated with p.v. so far only Toyota have
| announced an experiment of car+home p.v.+heat pump project and I
| still see nothing on sale. Tesla offer none as well, even if
| "they evolve the concept of heat-pump in cars"...
|
| So well... Why buy a PowerWall? A Victron MultiPlus/Quattro and
| Chinese batteries offer more power, more storage, more modularity
| at a cheaper price... Victron also offer an EV domestic charging
| station BADLY integrated with home p.v. (sometimes does not star
| charging even if there is plenty of p.v. available, charging
| settings are awfully limited, for instance you can't say "go full
| power with Sun, but keep going from the grid as needed at maximum
| X amps till a certain time" and similar not that strange nor
| complex logic)...
___________________________________________________________________
(page generated 2025-07-02 23:00 UTC)