[HN Gopher] Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane f...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back
       'decades'
        
       Author : trauco
       Score  : 181 points
       Date   : 2025-06-29 17:39 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theguardian.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theguardian.com)
        
       | JumpCrisscross wrote:
       | "Researchers say the satellites themselves are operating normally
       | and do not appear to have suffered any errors that would
       | physically prevent the data from continuing to be collected and
       | distributed, so the abrupt data halt might have been an
       | intentional decision."
       | 
       | Wait, the U.S. aren't even going to try selling the satellites?
       | We're just scrapping them?
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | The intent is to disable the capability to ignore the data. If
         | you allow access to someone else, you're not preventing the
         | data capture and dissemination. If the data shows hurricanes
         | are intensifying in strength due to climate change, and you no
         | longer capture the data, you can say with a straight face "No
         | it isn't and you can't prove it."
         | 
         | How large systems with exposure to these places (insurance,
         | capital markets) respond is what you should look to next. What
         | do you do when you don't have the data to accurately price
         | risk?
         | 
         | Relevant comments:
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43366311
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42450680
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41664750 (top comment of
         | this thread aggressively relevant)
        
           | mnky9800n wrote:
           | I think it's even more nefarious than that. They can attack
           | other countries that claim intensifying climate and weather
           | scenarios by saying their data is biased while claiming to
           | have the best data in the world but not share for national
           | security reasons. While this may seem like something
           | unbelievable to you or me it is easily eaten up by their
           | supporters who love propaganda. Like, my republican parents
           | are convinced robotaxi is amaxing after the unreasonably bad
           | debut in Austin. They simply didn't hear or want to hear that
           | Tesla would not produce a working product.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | They could claim that even with the satellites. The
             | "alternate reality" can be anything - if facts aren't
             | inserted into it the people inside won't know.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | Idiots will buy it. The courts won't. Cutting off the
               | data stymies the latter.
        
               | pstuart wrote:
               | The courts are compelled to defer to SCOTUS, which has
               | demonstrated that it is ideologically aligned with the
               | regime.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _SCOTUS, which has demonstrated that it is
               | ideologically aligned with the regime_
               | 
               | If you read SCOTUS's opinions this is obviously false.
               | Alito and Thomas are bought. But the others have their
               | own quirks and agendas.
        
               | tialaramex wrote:
               | You could probably imagine that ACB is just very stupid I
               | guess? She's made choices which only make sense if
               | they're out of blind loyalty to the man who gave her a
               | job she shouldn't have _or_ because she 's not smart
               | enough to understand the consequences.
               | 
               | For ordinary people it can feel reasonable to keep your
               | head down and hope that somehow this blows over. But for
               | SCOTUS it's entirely within their power to draw a line,
               | and it seems like _at best_ their idea has become  "Maybe
               | if we give him what he wants he'll go away?" which is
               | dumb, Kipling wrote his famous poem "Dane-geld" about
               | this, it's well over a century old and it's about a
               | mistake England (or rather one of its Kings) made last
               | millennium (when he wrote it, ie now over 1000 years
               | ago).
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _could probably imagine that ACB is just very stupid I
               | guess? She 's made choices which only make sense if
               | they're out of blind loyalty to the man who gave her a
               | job_
               | 
               | Barrett has sided with the liberals on various decisions.
               | SCOTUS has a problem. But its problem isn't blind loyalty
               | to Trump. It's that there is a deeper conviction about
               | the way the world should work that sometimes aligns with
               | Trump in ways that are deeply damaging to our society.
               | 
               | If you want to see a judge who's blindly deferential to
               | Trump, that's Aileen Cannon.
        
               | KerrAvon wrote:
               | SCOTUS is essentially blindly local to Trump -- pay
               | attention to the latest Constitution-shredding decisions;
               | they sure wouldn't be doing those under a Dem president,
               | and they're twisting themselves in knots trying to make
               | the illogical logical -- it just manifests differently at
               | their level.
        
               | pstuart wrote:
               | This is clear to all except partisans who put loyalty to
               | their party over their country.
               | 
               | It's not like we're asking for SCOTUS to accept
               | constitutional slights from the left side of the aisle,
               | its about consistency of reasoning regardless of which
               | party is involved.
               | 
               | As you've noted, the conservatives of SCOTUS are working
               | backwards from their desired goals rather than pursuing
               | justice for all.
        
             | Buttons840 wrote:
             | > while claiming to have the best data in the world but not
             | share for national security reasons
             | 
             | "The getaway car was green."
             | 
             | "No it wasn't!"
             | 
             | "What color was it then?"
             | 
             | "I don't know what color it was!"
             | 
             | ...
        
           | mschuster91 wrote:
           | > What do you do when you don't have the data to accurately
           | price risk?
           | 
           | Insurance companies will just be sending up their own
           | satellites, and _that_ is the true goal. Force people to pay
           | money to private entities for a service that used to be
           | provided by the government for free.
           | 
           | Functionally, in such a system there is no difference between
           | that and regular taxes, just in a private system there's
           | opportunities for those in power (because you gotta have a
           | lot of money to send up a powerful satellite) to make even
           | more money.
           | 
           | With the current US administration, _always_ look at the
           | grifting opportunities, that will explain virtually all
           | policy decisions.
        
             | wk_end wrote:
             | (...and guess who's company they'll be contracting those
             | launches to?)
        
             | cma wrote:
             | SpaceX earns less money if we don't relaunch what we
             | already have, and they have a satellite design division,
             | Musk is somewhat on the outs with the admin right now but
             | was behind lots of the cuts like this.
             | 
             | On the other hand, in the first Trump admin the AccuWeather
             | spam site guy was trying to restrict NWS data to private
             | companies:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Lee_Myers
             | 
             | I think AccuWeather opposed the Project 2025 plan to remove
             | weather tracking frothe government though, they just wanted
             | it to be tax payer paid but exclusively provided to
             | corporations for sale to make competitive upstart weather
             | sites harder to establish (you can bid more if you already
             | have lots of users, without them you have to build
             | something so great and potentially profitable that you can
             | get VC to fund your purchases of the data).
             | 
             | https://www.masslive.com/news/2024/07/accuweather-rejects-
             | pr...
        
             | XorNot wrote:
             | Except they won't. There's no reason to expensively launch
             | your own forecasting system when you can instead just wait
             | for someone else to do it and then use their insurance
             | rates to do your own forecasting.
             | 
             | Which is why the government running satellites it would
             | need to run anyway is much more efficient.
        
         | timewizard wrote:
         | That claim does not seem justified.
         | 
         | > 2016 failure of DMSP 19 without replacement[edit] On 11
         | February 2016, a power failure left both the command-and-
         | control subsystem and its backup without the ability to reach
         | the satellite's processor, according to the U.S. Air Force
         | Space Command investigation released in July 2016 that also
         | announced that DMSP 5D-3/F19 was considered to be 'lost'. The
         | satellite's data can still be used, until it ceases pointing
         | the sensors towards the Earth. The satellite was the most
         | recent on-orbit, having been launched on 3 April 2014.[15]
         | 
         | > The failure only left F16, F17 and F18 - all significantly
         | past their expected 3-5 year lifespan - operational. F19's
         | planned replacement was not carried out because Congress
         | ordered the destruction of the already constructed F20 probe to
         | save money by not having to pay its storage costs. It is
         | unlikely that a new DMSP satellite would be launched before
         | 2023; by then the three remaining satellites should no longer
         | be operational.[16]
         | 
         | To anyone acting as if this is a surprise or they're suddenly
         | caught out and have to switch to another provider, I have to
         | wonder, with the writing on the wall for 8 years now, how have
         | you not already updated your plans?
         | 
         | That's the guardian for you. Remove context. Generate
         | hyperbole. Beg for money.
        
           | mlyle wrote:
           | The article mentions the three remaining operational
           | satellites.
           | 
           | Generally, you use space hardware until it dies, which is
           | hopefully well beyond the design life.
        
           | counters wrote:
           | > To anyone acting as if this is a surprise or they're
           | suddenly caught out and have to switch to another provider, I
           | have to wonder, with the writing on the wall for 8 years now,
           | how have you not already updated your plans?
           | 
           | That doesn't accurately capture the reason why there's
           | outrage here. In the weather community, we're constantly
           | thinking through contingencies because a great deal of things
           | are out of our control - and we rely on aging infrastructure,
           | much of which is already flaky to begin with.
           | 
           | Data outages and data loss happens. But there's no reason to
           | allow a _preventable_ data loss to occur. The DMSP data is
           | still being collected, it's just not being distributed
           | downstream. And the decision to make this policy change was
           | seemingly done rapidly and with no input or feedback from the
           | user community of this data - both inside and outside the
           | federal government.
           | 
           | There's no reason to turn off the spigot of this data. And
           | there certainly is no reason to do so abruptly and with
           | virtually no notice. As a consequence, the community is
           | limited in its ability to adapt. For instance, it would take
           | time (and money) to spin up more hurricane hunting resources
           | to replace the overpass data that the SSMI/S instrument
           | captures. Some private companies operate PMW satellite
           | constellations and we could accelerate the acquisition of
           | these data, but there are limited (read: none) federal
           | mechanisms to do this and due to vertical integration in the
           | weather industry, the operators of these constellations may
           | not actually be inclined to do so - and certainly won't do so
           | on the cheap, especially for the federal government.
           | 
           | So this isn't hyperbole. This is a really big deal. It might
           | not be visible to you, but there is a panic and scramble
           | occurring in the weather community to figure out what to do
           | from here.
           | 
           | And for the record - yes, the same panic would happen if the
           | DMSP satellites failed suddenly due to natural causes. But
           | this current situation could've - and should've - been
           | prevented.
        
             | mschuster91 wrote:
             | > Some private companies operate PMW satellite
             | constellations and we could accelerate the acquisition of
             | these data, but there are limited (read: none) federal
             | mechanisms to do this and due to vertical integration in
             | the weather industry, the operators of these constellations
             | may not actually be inclined to do so - and certainly won't
             | do so on the cheap, especially for the federal government.
             | 
             | That's the goal, actually. You can be sure someone in the
             | admin owns stock of these companies and pushed for this
             | policy for this very reason.
        
               | counters wrote:
               | The companies I'm referring to are (generally) not
               | publicly traded, so it's not quite that simple. Is it
               | possible that some sort of backroom shenanigans are going
               | on here? Yeah, absolutely, especially as several
               | knowledgable folks speaking publicly about this episode
               | are pointing their fingers at opaque procedure within
               | Space Force.
               | 
               | But Hanlon's razor ought to apply until shown otherwise.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _companies I 'm referring to are (generally) not
               | publicly traded_
               | 
               | Stock doesn't have to be publicly traded to be traded.
        
               | cyanydeez wrote:
               | Trump uses hanlons razor to improve his grift outcomes.
        
               | counters wrote:
               | You're right, but I would stress that this is an over-
               | simplification of the entangled financial interests that
               | _might_ be at play - and there simply isn't any evidence
               | that has been presented pointing in that direction.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | > But Hanlon's razor ought to apply until shown otherwise
               | 
               | I'm no longer willing to grant this administration this
               | privilege. The last few months were an utter clownshow of
               | corruption.
        
               | counters wrote:
               | It just isn't helpful to assume malice. Even for the most
               | ardent, ideological Heartland Institute or Heritage
               | Foundation conservative, there is still a path forward in
               | discussing unintended consequences. Just look at the
               | post-Liberation Day rollback of blanket tariffs. At some
               | point, the consequences of actions are felt. Systems
               | respond even when the firmest hand tries to steady them.
               | 
               | At some point you take your hand off the burning stove,
               | even if it means amputating your arm. Some folks should
               | prepare for that contingency while those of us who can
               | still stomach it pursue reason.
        
           | margalabargala wrote:
           | Ah, so basically if you have a car that's 5 years out of
           | warranty but still runs fine, and the government comes in and
           | takes your keys so you can't drive it, that would be your
           | fault for not having gotten a new car sooner?
        
           | trauco wrote:
           | The satellites that are still up are still collecting
           | critical data. That's not disputed.
        
         | ars wrote:
         | This story is NOT TRUE.
         | 
         | There is _one_ operating satellite in this constellation, and
         | congress voted to shut down the program in 2015.
         | 
         | The DMSP program was discontinued in 2015 by a vote in
         | congress[1]. Virtually every working stallelite in this program
         | has failed. As best as I can tell there's just a single working
         | one specifically NOAA-19[2].
         | 
         | Instead the program has switched to JPSS[3] which is part of
         | GEOSS[4].
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Meteorological_Satelli...
         | (scroll up slightly)
         | 
         | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOAA-19
         | 
         | [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Polar_Satellite_System
         | 
         | [4]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Earth_Observation_Syste...
        
           | trauco wrote:
           | The key facts are:
           | 
           | - DMSP satellites are up and measuring data - These data will
           | continue to be measured after Monday - the government is
           | discontinuing processing and public access to the data - This
           | will impact our capacity to predict hurricanes and monitor
           | sea ice.
           | 
           | Which of the above are "not true"?
        
           | IAmGraydon wrote:
           | While you're correct that Congress voted to phase out the
           | program, you're wrong on a number of levels. First, NOAA-19
           | is not a DMSP satellite. Second, many of the DMSP satellites
           | are still in orbit and functioning - even the very Wikipedia
           | article you linked to shows this. There was no legitimate
           | reason to cut off their data that we've been given. Third,
           | JPSS and GEOS lack some of the capabilities of the DMSP, for
           | example the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder that was
           | still providing highly valuable real-time microwave data,
           | including precipitation rates, sea surface wind speeds, sea
           | ice coverage, water vapor levels and cloud properties.
           | 
           | So to be frank, the only thing that's "NOT TRUE" is nearly
           | all of your post.
        
         | MikeTheGreat wrote:
         | It feels like the title here isn't accurate - we haven't lost
         | the satellite at all. It wasn't destroyed, it wasn't de-orbited
         | (on purpose or accidentally), it wasn't hacked or hijacked.
         | 
         | Can we ask dang to change the title to something like "Blocking
         | of key US satellite data could...."?
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | It's part of the Administration's war on ... Florida?
        
         | deadbabe wrote:
         | It could help lower insurance costs.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | Insurance companies aren't going to charge less for not
           | knowing, they'll charge more.
        
           | jonwachob91 wrote:
           | That's not at all how insurance companies price risk. Unknown
           | risk is more risk, and more risk is more expensive.
           | Therefore, unknown hurricane data is more risky and thus more
           | expensive.
           | 
           | If you know your car's engine is going to need replaced after
           | exactly 100,000 miles, you know to save up for a new engine
           | or a new car - and you know how long you have to save, so you
           | can precisely set aside an appropriate figure every month.
           | 
           | If you know your car's engine will die sometime within the
           | next 15,000 miles, you know you need to start saving up
           | immediately, but b/c you don't know when in the next 15,000
           | miles you have to rush your saving.
           | 
           | If you have no idea when your car's engine is going to die,
           | you are likely to end up dead engine and little to no
           | savings.
        
             | deadbabe wrote:
             | Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years.
             | Every year people say it will be the end of Florida as we
             | know it. But those promised hurricanes never come. The
             | worst is some flooding and damage at coastal areas, but
             | it's always anti-climactic.
             | 
             | The real reason insurance is high is because of fraudulent
             | claim risk. Hurricanes themselves are more or less a solved
             | problem in Florida. That data is useless.
        
               | mindslight wrote:
               | "I'm not moving the goalposts because my argument doesn't
               | have any"
        
               | counters wrote:
               | > Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years
               | 
               | Year-over-year, economic impacts and disruptions due to
               | tropical cyclones are dramatically rising. Most of this
               | is an exposure issue. But long-tail events - like
               | Andrew's utter devastation of Homestead in 1992 or
               | Katrina's unique confluence of storm surge in
               | urban/suburban parishes in LA - can and do happen.
               | 
               | One day, there will be another Galveston or Homestead.
        
               | deadbabe wrote:
               | There won't be another Andrew because the building codes
               | were changed so that all new construction must withstand
               | category 5 storm force, which when Andrew came around was
               | not a requirement. Over time, there is a natural
               | selection that occurs where destroyed buildings are
               | replaced with stronger buildings with stricter codes.
        
               | buttercraft wrote:
               | What about the flooding?
        
               | sorcerer-mar wrote:
               | ....all of which makes them more expensive to insure (and
               | build, obviously)...
        
               | counters wrote:
               | > There won't be another Andrew because the building
               | codes were changed so that all new construction must
               | withstand category 5 storm force
               | 
               | I sincerely hope you're right, but there is plenty of
               | evidence suggesting that this will not be the case, owing
               | to a multitude of factors:
               | 
               | - not all housing stock is <30 years old and has been
               | properly retrofitted to meet state specs
               | 
               | - the climates around the Gulf, which tend to be more
               | humid, can lead to premature degradation of things like
               | strengthened anchor bolts and roof attachments
               | 
               | - there continue to be immense factors related to cost
               | and time-to-build which provide significant negative
               | pressure towards cutting corners and minimum-compliance
               | which may mitigate some of the attendant benefits of
               | strengthened building codes
               | 
               | An event like Andrew _is the selection event_ that you're
               | referring to.
        
               | bena wrote:
               | That day being essentially yesterday.
               | 
               | Since Katrina, the next 10 costliest hurricanes are all
               | _after_.
               | 
               | We don't dwell on the Ikes, Idas, and Helenes because
               | they often happen to smaller communities _and_ they 've
               | become common enough that we've gotten a little fatigued.
        
               | margalabargala wrote:
               | > Hurricanes themselves are more or less a solved problem
               | in Florida.
               | 
               | I'm going to go with less, though I suppose you could
               | call "experience widespread destruction, get bailed out
               | by the federal government, rebuild in the same spot" to
               | be a permanent solution.
               | 
               | Florida has maybe solved cat 1-2 hurricanes.
        
               | jonwachob91 wrote:
               | I'm from Florida - born and raised. I've never once heard
               | anyone call any hurricane "the end of Florida as we know
               | it". What I have heard, and seen, is extreme damages
               | caused to homes and cars even hundreds of miles away from
               | the eye of the storm.
               | 
               | In 2022, Hurricane Ian caused extreme flooding in the
               | Orlando-region, including in areas that have never
               | suffered from hurricane flooding before. For me
               | personally, all 3 cars parked at my house were total
               | losses b/c of the flood damage.
               | 
               | The extreme and extensive damages in the Appalachian
               | region last fall is another great example of hurricane
               | risk not being "grossly exaggerated".
        
               | NickC25 wrote:
               | >The worst is some flooding and damage at coastal areas,
               | but it's always anti-climactic.
               | 
               | The residents of what used to be Ft. Meyers Beach would
               | probably disagree with you.
               | 
               | >Hurricanes themselves are more or less a solved problem
               | in Florida.
               | 
               | I have been in Florida for nearly a decade now. I'd say
               | that the above statement is at best, disingenuous. It's
               | just not true. MAYBE Cat1 hurricanes are a solved
               | problem, but nothing above that. The busiest economic
               | center in Florida (Miami's Brickell area) is _6 feet
               | above sea level_. Any major storm locks that part of town
               | down for days. My own building 's parking lot is 5 feet
               | above sea level, and yes, it's flooded every time we have
               | a storm.
        
           | oksowhat wrote:
           | The rebuilds happen with federal FEMA dollars and there is an
           | entire cottage industry of re-builders who take federal
           | funds, rebuild homes -- and then do it again two years later.
           | https://www.fema.gov/node/what-home-repair-assistance
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | The writing has been on the wall for decades, especially since
         | 2015 or so when Congress basically started shuttering DMSP.
        
         | oksowhat wrote:
         | I was about to say this -- the impact is to deep red states --
         | Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama.
         | 
         | They all voted for this with extreme skew towards the current
         | policies. What is the point of trying to save this satellite
         | data if the very people most affected dont care for it?
        
         | ars wrote:
         | This is such a bad article. They shut down this specific
         | program in 2015, and switched to JPSS instead.
         | 
         | There is no war on anyone, and this has nothing to do with
         | Trump, DOGS, or Climate change. Rather there were too many
         | satellite failures, leaving just a single operating one in
         | orbit.
        
           | BriggyDwiggs42 wrote:
           | There was no reason not to continue providing the data from
           | the satellite. It's still operational.
        
             | BenjiWiebe wrote:
             | I agree with both of you. Unnecessary fear mongering, but
             | also a shortsighted pointless (malicious?) move.
        
         | throw0101c wrote:
         | > _It 's part of the Administration's war on ... Florida?_
         | 
         | The administration of Florida has a war on the idea of climate
         | change:
         | 
         | * "Ron DeSantis signs bill scrubbing 'climate change' from
         | Florida state laws": https://www.theguardian.com/us-
         | news/article/2024/may/16/desa...
         | 
         | * "Florida Officials Barred from Referencing "Climate Change":
         | https://climate.law.columbia.edu/content/florida-officials-b...
         | 
         | This allows (certain) Florida politicians to put their head in
         | the sand even more than they already have.
        
       | mensetmanusman wrote:
       | NOAA-20 is better and will still be available.
       | 
       | Also from NOAA: "Noaa said they would not affect the quality of
       | forecasting."
       | 
       | Decommissioning old sensors?
        
         | macintux wrote:
         | NOAA is not safe from political maneuvering.
         | 
         | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-what-pro...
        
       | Rebelgecko wrote:
       | So IIRC for the last 50 years the DMSP satellites broadcast all
       | their data in the clear. If the program is only shutting down the
       | ground stations and data distribution, it seems like an
       | opportunity for some researchers to buy some SDRs and start
       | collecting their own data.
       | 
       | I'm actually surprised that the successors to DMSP don't meet the
       | same needs. Or is the problem that they do and the government
       | just doesn't share that data?
        
       | sampl3username wrote:
       | Is the satellite link encrypted? Maybe radio amateurs can
       | continue to receive its signals.
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | No encryption*. I think they broadcast on S-band which isn't
         | necessarily compatible with a $20 hobbyist rtl-sdr, but still
         | possible with more advanced amateur setups
         | 
         | * Ok that's an oversimplification. They actually turn
         | encryption on while the satellite is over certain areas. But if
         | you're in the Continental US I think it's in the clear
        
       | schiffern wrote:
       | >The loss of DMSP comes as Noaa's weather and climate monitoring
       | services have become critically understaffed this year as Donald
       | Trump's so-called "department of government efficiency" (Doge)
       | initiative has instilled draconian cuts to federal environmental
       | programs.
       | 
       | Translation:
       | 
       | "We can't actually say this was DOGE, so we're going to imply it
       | using emotionally charged words, and 90% of folks with bad media
       | literacy will come away thinking it was DOGE (just check the
       | reddit comments)."
       | 
       | This in-vogue method of "lying without lying" is shockingly
       | common nowadays, but apparently it's okay for media to lie
       | because Bad Man Bad.
        
         | cinntaile wrote:
         | What? They basically say it was the cuts by Doge?
        
         | chomp wrote:
         | I don't understand what you're complaining about here. Lying?
        
           | schiffern wrote:
           | Yes, when the media lies it's _bad_. People used to
           | understand that fact.
           | 
           | Now media gets a free pass on certain lies because Bad Man
           | Bad, and (evidently) people aren't even allowed to point out
           | the lie.
           | 
           | Hint: when the media can make up whatever they want about
           | someone, they can quickly twist perception to make anyone
           | into the Bad Man.
        
             | mlyle wrote:
             | Did DOGE not ditch hundreds of probationary employees at
             | NOAA, cancel numerous contracts, get 1000 people to take
             | early retirement offers, get rid of buildings, etc?
             | 
             | And now the current funding request enacts a ~30% funding
             | cut.
             | 
             | I'm not sure the factual issue you're seeing. Is it that
             | the statement wasn't definitive enough in saying that DOGE
             | apparently was a large part of instituting these cuts?
             | 
             | (Yes, I know OPM implemented many of these programs, but
             | they're apparently at DOGE's request, named after the "Fork
             | in the Road" initiative at Twitter, using data gathered by
             | DOGE IT staffers, &c. If we give credit for _any_ cuts, we
             | have to give them credit for significant cuts at NOAA.)
        
               | msgodel wrote:
               | My understanding is this was set up to happen roughly a
               | decade ago and is just now manifesting. It has pretty
               | much nothing to do with DOGE.
        
               | counters wrote:
               | We don't if, or to what extent, DOGE was involved or
               | influential in the decision-making here.
               | 
               | Yes, the DMSP program was aging and slated to wind down
               | as replacements - both federal and commercial - came
               | online in the second half of the 2020's. But in general,
               | if valid and useful data continues to stream from these
               | types of satellites, you use it and monitor for
               | disruption.
               | 
               | As someone who uses the DMSP data every single day, let
               | me be very clear: there was no warning or expectation
               | that such an abrupt change was going to happen. Yes, we
               | all have contingency plans for if a satellite fails or a
               | data link goes down. But to be given basically 5 days
               | notice that a significant, mission-critical asset would
               | be taken offline? That doesn't - and shouldn't - happen.
        
             | lynndotpy wrote:
             | Your premise that they're "lying" is unsubstantiated. Your
             | comments read only like dress around the "fake news" bit.
        
               | schiffern wrote:
               | Before you claim there's nothing happening and The
               | Guardian didn't mean it, check social media comments
               | elsewhere to see how many people misinterpret this news
               | item into "DOGE/Elon did it."
               | 
               | I would bet you, but that money's too easy. :)
               | 
               | Again, this exact conversation is the genius behind
               | 'lying __without lying__. ' You can always claim in high-
               | literacy communities like HN that no, nobody would ever
               | be silly enough misread it like that, all while watching
               | your misinformation spread across the low-literacy
               | communities like facebook and reddit.
               | 
               | The Guardian et al has done this too often for plausible
               | deniability. Even I can pick up on the pattern, and
               | that's without access to the big boy's social media
               | engagement and sentiment tracking tools.
        
               | mh- wrote:
               | _> high-literacy communities like HN [..] low-literacy
               | communities like facebook and reddit_
               | 
               | I see this sentiment a lot lately, and I see your HN join
               | date is similar to mine. HN is more mainstream than it
               | used to be, for better or worse. There is a _lot_ more
               | overlap between commenters on HN and Reddit nowadays,
               | especially in certain categories of subreddits.
               | 
               | Personally, I lament the _web_ being a high-literacy
               | community.
        
               | Larrikin wrote:
               | >check social media comments elsewhere to see how many
               | people misinterpret this news item into "DOGE/Elon did
               | it."
               | 
               | No, post news sources and researched articles. Your vibes
               | about the Internet are irrelevant
        
             | pstuart wrote:
             | It's an agreeable assessment that "the media" suffers from
             | accuracy and bias in its reporting. Being that humans are
             | involved, that's unavoidable.
             | 
             | But a couple of things should be considered here:
             | * Intention       * Degree       * Impact
             | 
             | Intention is a core element of assessing "crimes", with
             | homicide being the most serious one of all we factor it out
             | into: accidental, intentional but clouded by mental
             | conditions in the heat of the moment, and pre-meditated.
             | This is a reasonable metric to apply to the crime of
             | "misreporting" as well.
             | 
             | Degree is likewise to be noted, where it can range from
             | lost nuance to outright lies.
             | 
             | Impact is also a concern if it is a concern. A news article
             | that compels people to randomly attack their neighbors is
             | more of an issue than one that tempts you to buy a new
             | snack.
             | 
             | And most importantly of all: "the media" is not a singular
             | entity and they vary strongly in their veracity and scope,
             | as well as their agendas. Some are at their core intending
             | to serve the public, others are a business to sell
             | advertising, and others are literally propaganda outfits to
             | serve vested interests (e.g., Fox News was created to be
             | the PR arm of the GOP -- this is a fact and not
             | conjecture).
             | 
             | So yes, the NYT can get things wrong (like the lead up to
             | the Iraq invasion), I trust them more than Fox News (which
             | destroyed a community by spreading lies about their new
             | immigrant neighbors eating people's pets).
             | 
             | Hope this helps!
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _We can 't actually say this was DOGE_
         | 
         | The article is saying it was DOGE. DOGE directly attacked our
         | hurricane-forecasting capacity [1]. OMB, _i.e._ Vought,
         | continues that attack [2].
         | 
         | Given the top three states by hurricane risk voted for Trump in
         | '24 [3][4] this should make for an entertaining hurricane
         | season. (Particularly if both a red and blue state get hit and
         | request federal assistance.)
         | 
         | [1] https://apnews.com/article/national-weather-service-
         | layoffs-...
         | 
         | [2]
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOAA_under_the_second_presid...
         | 
         | [3] https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/states-most-at-risk-
         | for-...
         | 
         | [4]
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_president...
        
           | ars wrote:
           | > The article is saying it was DOGE
           | 
           | Yah, but it's the guardian. They aren't exactly reliable.
           | 
           | For it to be DOGE would require a time machine, because this
           | project was shut down in 2015.
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _but it 's the guardian. They aren't exactly reliable_
             | 
             | This is valid and I'm open to someone calling out the
             | reporting as non-factual with evidence.
             | 
             | Pretending _The Guardian_ is trying to imply this was DOGE
             | when it straight out says as much, on the other hand, is
             | closer to a reading-comprehension issue.
        
         | Larrikin wrote:
         | It was DOGE and preparation to sell the data or ignore the
         | science so they can continue to profit until they are dead.
         | 
         | DOGE is an organization that exist with the goal to do things
         | like this. You have no evidence it wasn't them other than
         | empathically saying the emperor has clothes on. All evidence we
         | have implicates them.
        
           | ars wrote:
           | DOGE did not exist in 2015. This project was shut down in
           | 2015.
        
       | HichamCh wrote:
       | Welp, guess I'll start investing in carrier pigeons with tiny
       | barometers. Back to the old ways!
        
       | 8bitsrule wrote:
       | Is loss of automobiles and reverting to horses next?
        
         | Frost1x wrote:
         | We can all become Amish while Bezos, Trump, etc. fly around in
         | their privately owned 747s. Perfect society for our capital and
         | power ownership class... that is until the hounds are at the
         | door threatening the security of their capital or the economy
         | downturn makes it far enough their wealth and power won't buy
         | the level of opulence they expect on the daily. Difficult to
         | fly around if no one's producing runways and jet fuel, etc.
        
       | charcircuit wrote:
       | How can it be set back decades? Even if you had to design new
       | satellites and send them up it would not take a decade to do.
        
         | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
         | Decades is how far they were set back, not the duration of the
         | setback.
        
       | jenadine wrote:
       | Similar topic was discussed earlier:
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44409175 (140 comments)
        
       | softwaredoug wrote:
       | The problem of important projects surviving political change is a
       | tough one.
       | 
       | A lot of these important projects have a single point of failure
       | - who is the president every four years. I wonder how we build
       | institutions and resources resilient to that?
       | 
       | I realize privatization is an ugly word, but could some of this
       | stuff be provided by the private sector?
       | 
       | Can we make it possible to fund initiatives in a multinational
       | manner where countries contribute to these efforts, but if one
       | country blinks out, then you still have it go along?
        
         | cwillu wrote:
         | If a president can ignore the laws requiring those projects to
         | exist, the president can ignore the laws protecting private
         | companies from being nationalized and shut down.
        
         | ars wrote:
         | This project was actually shut down in 2015.
        
         | Shivatron wrote:
         | > A lot of these important projects have a single point of
         | failure - who is the president every four years. I wonder how
         | we build institutions and resources resilient to that?
         | 
         | We already did. The legislative branch allocates funds for
         | stuff that the people deem worthy. That budget becomes law. The
         | Constitution says the "President shall take Care that the Laws
         | be faithfully executed." There's even a specific law that
         | prevents the President from withholding Congressionally-
         | approved funds.
         | 
         | What you are seeing here is not a lack of designed resilience,
         | it's the wilful removal of that system.
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | [dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44409175
        
       | johanneskanybal wrote:
       | I know what Hari Seldon's conclusion would be..
        
       | irrational wrote:
       | But, isn't European data modeling of hurricanes better than that
       | of the USA? I assume this is only the USA forecasting that is
       | being set back?
        
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