[HN Gopher] OpenAI wins $200M U.S. defense contract
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       OpenAI wins $200M U.S. defense contract
        
       Author : erikrit
       Score  : 296 points
       Date   : 2025-06-16 22:31 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
        
       | upghost wrote:
       | Does anyone have any idea what the DoD could possibly want from
       | OpenAI? Less accurate/more sycophantic missiles?
        
         | 01100011 wrote:
         | You realize that the DoD has a huge amount of normal business
         | work like logistics, project management, people management,
         | benefits management, etc? Right?
        
           | rkagerer wrote:
           | I suspect it's more than that.
           | 
           |  _"Under this award, the performer will develop prototype
           | frontier AI capabilities to address critical national
           | security challenges in both warfighting and enterprise
           | domains," the Defense Department said._
        
             | notesinthefield wrote:
             | "National security challenges" is incredibly broad,
             | providing the right size of boots to USCG rescue swimmers
             | could be considered a national security challenge.
        
               | koakuma-chan wrote:
               | it says _critical_
        
               | kube-system wrote:
               | Ain't nothing more critical than _rescue_!
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Trenchfoot was a substantial source of casualties in WW1,
               | and looking after your feet is a top priority for every
               | military force in the field.
        
             | guywithahat wrote:
             | Knowing the DoD, I bet it's not. I bet they just want their
             | own secure servers or some sort of corporate
             | data/encryption management, and they're willing to pay out
             | the nose to not have to use asksage or some terrible DoD
             | friendly clone
        
           | dmd wrote:
           | The United States Military (Waterhouse has decided) is first
           | and foremost an unfathomable network of typists and file
           | clerks, secondarily a stupendous mechanism for moving stuff
           | from one part of the world to another, and last and least a
           | fighting organization. --Cryptonomicon
        
         | notesinthefield wrote:
         | Some of the more popular models (NIPRGPT, the various DREN
         | models) are "soft banned" and DoD is in need of a unified
         | solution. MSFT's GCC HIGH and GovCloud implementations have
         | been slow to materialize. But more to your point - _everyone_
         | is using LLM's to pick up the slack from layoffs. Im sitting in
         | meetings and watching my gov customers generate documentation
         | and proposals everyday. Everything the commercial world uses AI
         | for the US gov is doing the same. Cant directly speak to
         | targeting but you can bet your ass there are 100 different
         | offensive projects trying to integrate AI into ISR work and the
         | like.
        
           | pests wrote:
           | Planatir has an older demo of their chat like interface
           | showcasing targeting selection, battle plans and formations,
           | other advice. Kind of creepy, I assume it's much more capable
           | now.
        
             | greenavocado wrote:
             | Palantir is the poster child for a global panopticon
        
           | rafterydj wrote:
           | Seems like we might work in similar environments. +1 on your
           | observation the DoD needs a unified solution. It's not just
           | slow- GovCloud implementations simply aren't working if
           | you're building anything using them. The pressure for getting
           | AI into services and applications are high, but the pressure
           | is all from the top, meaning there's no easy way for issues
           | to get fixed.
        
         | ginkgotree wrote:
         | Yeah, tons. SIGNT / HUMINT analysis. After action report
         | summaries. war gaming to optimize deterrence. human machine
         | teaming. LLM-in-the-loop for warfighters. rapid code gen in
         | field deployments for units to spin up software solutions. The
         | list is endless, imho.
        
           | felixgallo wrote:
           | llm-in-the-loop for whatever a 'warfighter' is is basically
           | the opposite of how fighting wars should go.
        
             | kube-system wrote:
             | The DoD does plenty of things beyond putting boots on the
             | ground. They're the world's largest employer. They have all
             | the same boring problems that any employer has at gigantic
             | scale.
        
               | ginkgotree wrote:
               | Yep, pretty much.
        
             | ginkgotree wrote:
             | why? it could help them asses threats, civilians / avoid
             | collateral damage. Like any weapon or technology, it
             | depends on its use. warfighter is the modern industry /
             | academic term used for "soldier."
        
               | ringeryless wrote:
               | "help" (botch the job)
        
               | Xss3 wrote:
               | More like hey, ai, sit here watching uav and security
               | camera footage from 10,000 feeds and flag short clips for
               | human review if you think they show military activity.
        
             | cess11 wrote:
             | Such things are already in use in Palestine, integrating it
             | into the broader US military will take some work.
             | 
             | One main function is to enable sloppier targeting while
             | easing the PTSD load on soldiers, i.e. allowing for more
             | criminal and genocidal operations without immediate mutiny
             | or desertions.
             | 
             | In a sense you can make the computer more convincing to the
             | operator and have it tag more people as supposedly
             | threatening, e.g. to up the amount of supposed threats in a
             | gathering from one actually militant person to several
             | based on aggregation of sentiment analysis, network
             | analysis and so on.
             | 
             | You might understand that you're looking at a wedding, but
             | the computer says several people there are 'red' because of
             | social media posts, who they had lunch with a while ago and
             | so on, raising the threshold for when so called collateral
             | starts to hurt your operators badly enough to be a problem.
             | 
             | And then you have the dream of autonomous swarms of
             | machines doing murder, which I'm sure the current US regime
             | is salivating over and likely hope that these corporations
             | will be able to help bring about eventually. Imagine going
             | from a cop street murder that gets bad press and court
             | proceedings and so on, to instead having to handle a set of
             | Jira tickets due to a supposed bug.
        
             | ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote:
             | There is no "should" in war beyond winning.
        
               | felixgallo wrote:
               | absolutely, totally incorrect.
               | 
               | https://www.icrc.org/en/document/rules-war-why-they-
               | matter#:...
        
         | an0malous wrote:
         | I would guess it's for mass surveillance. Even just the ability
         | to extract names and entities from audio, video, and text on
         | every piece of public media would be useful.
        
           | MOARDONGZPLZ wrote:
           | DOD doesn't really do this
        
             | stonogo wrote:
             | Only because they currently contract it out to Palantir (at
             | least the bits that NSA isn't handling)
        
               | MOARDONGZPLZ wrote:
               | News to me. I can't find any details though. Can you
               | share your source?
        
               | stonogo wrote:
               | https://investors.palantir.com/news-
               | details/2024/Palantir-Ex...
        
             | an0malous wrote:
             | Maybe they'd like to start
        
             | zmgsabst wrote:
             | NSA is a DOD organization.
             | 
             | > The National Security Agency (NSA) is an intelligence
             | agency of the United States Department of Defense, under
             | the authority of the director of national intelligence
             | (DNI).
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency
             | 
             | > William J. Hartman is a United States Army lieutenant
             | general who has served as the acting commander of United
             | States Cyber Command, director of the National Security
             | Agency,
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Hartman
             | 
             | They're staffed by military people (alongside civilians)
             | and their commander is always military -- because much of
             | what they do (abroad) could be construed as acts of war.
        
         | LightBug1 wrote:
         | One AI per person ...
        
           | SunlitCat wrote:
           | Nice ad slogan!
           | 
           | One AI per person
           | 
           | One voice. One vision. One AI - for you.
        
         | m3kw9 wrote:
         | Sycophantic missiles would be desirable
        
         | mosura wrote:
         | AI explosives with personalities feature in
         | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Star_(film)
        
           | SunlitCat wrote:
           | Wow, it was like forever ago that i've seen that movie.
           | Didn't realize it was meant as a comedy!
        
         | gilgoomesh wrote:
         | ChatGPT, do you know where the General left his keys?
        
         | impulser_ wrote:
         | You will be surprise how much work at the DoD has nothing to do
         | with weapons.
        
           | ringeryless wrote:
           | which also can be botched
        
         | munificent wrote:
         | 1. Secretary of Defense feels like bombing some place. Asks
         | aide to write a report on, justification, logistics, and
         | consequences.
         | 
         | 2. Aide tells subordinate to write report.
         | 
         | 3. Subordinate uses ChatGPT to write the 100-page report. Sends
         | it to aide.
         | 
         | 4. Aide uses ChatGPT to summarize report. Sends summary to
         | SecDef.
         | 
         | 5. SecDef accidentally posts summary on publicly-accessible
         | social media page, then forwards to President.
         | 
         | 6. Bombs go boom.
        
           | reginald78 wrote:
           | Afterwards some or all of the accountability for the taken
           | action is transferred to the amorphous entity known as AI.
        
           | avgDev wrote:
           | None of the sources check out.
           | 
           | "We did our best, but sometimes these tools get it wrong."
           | -politician after achieving their goal
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | > "This contract, with a $200 million ceiling, will bring
         | OpenAI's industry-leading expertise to help the Defense
         | Department identify and prototype how frontier AI can transform
         | its administrative operations, from improving how service
         | members and their families get health care, to streamlining how
         | they look at program and acquisition data, to supporting
         | proactive cyber defense,"
         | 
         | Translated - they'll hand out GPT access to a bunch of service
         | members and administrators. Except the UI will have a big DoD
         | logo and words like "SECURE" and "CLASSIFIED" will be displayed
         | on it a few dozen times.
        
         | piyushpr134 wrote:
         | An on premise deployment ?
        
         | somenameforme wrote:
         | Automatically generated, native sounding, propaganda at scale -
         | capable of interacting in real time. This was always the MIC
         | money endgame for LLMs. This is also probably why they are
         | enlisting tech _execs_ from Meta, OpenAI, etc.
        
           | bcrosby95 wrote:
           | I look forward to our senators "living" to 100+.
        
           | nusl wrote:
           | This is already happening at massive scale. Russia employs it
           | already, and it's very likely they're not the only ones.
        
         | jasonfrost wrote:
         | Easy PT plans
        
         | SunlitCat wrote:
         | Not that the bomb answers: "I am sorry Dave, i can't do that!"
        
         | Bender wrote:
         | To attempt to make sense of all my after action reports?
         | _kidding_
         | 
         | Maybe one potential use could be to drink from the firehose of
         | data and then try to create summary bullet-point reports for
         | the higher ups instead of relying on data filtering up the
         | chain of command in the old game of telephone. At least that is
         | what I would use if for. Getting that data in nearly real-time
         | in an accurate presentation would be priceless.
         | 
         | I do not have the slightest idea how they will secure all this
         | data if going to a 3rd party like OpenAI unless they have their
         | own self hosted version of it on their own mainframes. If that
         | data is going to live in a 3rd party they need to secure their
         | systems in a magical way systems has never been secured. They
         | would have to cast some seriously powerful protection spells.
        
         | nonameiguess wrote:
         | No. People see "defense" and immediately think everything is a
         | weapon, for some reason. The DoD is still an organization with
         | exactly the same business functions as wherever you work. This
         | is likely going to be something more or less like the ChatGPT
         | for Gov thing. You ask it to summarize videos and articles,
         | review a document you're writing, spruce it up, whatever the
         | rest of you are doing with LLMs, but you're allowed to use it
         | from a locked down DoD workstation that can't access public web
         | services.
        
       | dluan wrote:
       | directly hooking up the AI to the nuclear button is which chapter
       | of the dont build the torment nexus book
        
         | add-sub-mul-div wrote:
         | The epilogue.
        
           | mckirk wrote:
           | The last published draft of the epilogue.
        
         | fabfoe wrote:
         | Isn't that the Department of Energy that does that, not DoD?
        
           | kevingadd wrote:
           | DoD would be involved in actual deployment of nukes, I would
           | expect.
        
       | Avicebron wrote:
       | Let's hope before they wire it directly to the controls "because
       | speed" they've trained it on Stanislav Petrov up down and
       | backwards..
        
         | m3kw9 wrote:
         | I don't understand but that sounds funny
        
           | ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 wrote:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
           | 
           | > On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military
           | had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the
           | duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-
           | warning system when the system reported that a missile had
           | been launched from the United States, followed by up to four
           | more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm.
        
             | ethbr1 wrote:
             | The irony is that he was both successful and a failure, a
             | contradiction inherent in nuclear launch control.
             | 
             | From a deterrence and military perspective, you want a
             | robot on launch control. Every time, on orders, without
             | fail.
             | 
             | From a human and ethical perspective, you want a thinking
             | individual with agency. Able evaluate orders and possibly
             | disobey them.
             | 
             | Curious at the height of the Cold War (and now), what
             | percentage of launch officers were expected to disobey
             | orders to launch. It had to have been >0%.
        
               | bitwize wrote:
               | "Mr. McKittrick, after careful consideration I've come to
               | the conclusion, sir, that your new defense system sucks."
        
       | layoric wrote:
       | That should shore up their financials given their.. _checks
       | notes_ $12B in operational costs.  /s
       | 
       | Hope it's worth it.
        
         | bix6 wrote:
         | $10B run rate now so they can just plug the gap with $2B in
         | ads!?! Hot DoD singles near you! Would you like me to generate
         | an image of their stealth package ;) ?
        
         | throw234234234 wrote:
         | My view is that it isn't really entirely about economics
         | anymore at least on a traditional cost/benefit analysis basis.
         | It is seen as a way to disrupt industries. Think of it more
         | like war with arms race dynamics (winner takes all), or
         | consolidation of power to capital over labor. Even if it is a
         | net negative you need to play to stay in the game even if it
         | disrupts your own revenue (e.g. Google) else lose entirely.
         | 
         | I suspect the capital class would throw good money after bad to
         | make AI viable especially since a lot of the costs are fixed in
         | nature (i.e. in training runs, not per query).
        
       | more_corn wrote:
       | This gives me a sick feeling of unease.
        
         | bluealienpie wrote:
         | That's the rational response.
        
       | rvz wrote:
       | Isn't this part of the true definition of "AGI" and its all for
       | the benefit of humanity?
       | 
       | Or is it that are we finally realizing that we are getting
       | scammed again on these so-called promises and it was all a grift.
       | 
       | Maybe we should just wake up.
        
         | lyu07282 wrote:
         | People are practically irrelevant infants at this point. We are
         | about to repeat the Iraq war, point by point with universal
         | agreement. The same people in charge are recycling the same
         | propaganda, selling the same lies to in many cases quite
         | literally the same people again and it's working, so I don't
         | know why you are expecting anyone to ever "wake up".
        
         | trhway wrote:
         | On the way to benefit all humanity MS helped Sam back then, and
         | now MS will get to wake up to the real Sam :)
         | 
         | https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat...
         | 
         | "OpenAI executives have considered accusing Microsoft, the
         | company's major backer, of anticompetitive behavior in their
         | partnership ...
         | 
         | OpenAI's effort could involve seeking a federal regulatory
         | review of the terms of its contract with Microsoft for
         | potential violations of antitrust law, as well as a public
         | campaign,..."
        
       | ungreased0675 wrote:
       | Judging from how the DoD currently buys software, lots of money
       | will be spent, many headlines will be written, awards will be
       | handed out, and zero software will make it on to user
       | workstations. End users will continue to use Excel for
       | everything.
        
         | tonyhart7 wrote:
         | 200 mil is chump change for them, if prototype turned to be
         | good then good for them but if its not then they are not worry
        
           | FirmwareBurner wrote:
           | 200 mil for a government contract is peanuts when you see how
           | much taxpayer money governments loose via waste and
           | corruption
        
             | raizer88 wrote:
             | DOGE found basically nothing, and they worked with an axe
             | trying to cut anything that come close to waste. So I am
             | not sure where you see all this "waste and corruption".
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Bad faith argument. Why are you moving the discussion to
               | DOGE when that's not what I was talking about?
               | 
               | You know the word "governments" that I used, means a lot
               | more than the current TRUMP administration, right?
               | Broaden your mind and PoV.
               | 
               | And also, how can you say with a straight face there
               | isn't ongoing and never has been waste and corruption in
               | any government? Again, think for yourself, ignore
               | $CURRENT_EVENTS.
               | 
               | Look at your nation's government contracts that funnel
               | taxpayer money to private pockets, then look at the
               | output. Has there been value delivered proportional to
               | the money spent at reasonable market rates? If not, then
               | money was definitely wasted via incompetence, pocketed
               | via corruption, or both.
               | 
               | This is so prevalent and is has become the norm
               | everywhere for so long, that people are not even giving
               | it a second thought anymore when it comes to government
               | corruption, but somehow people want to be spoon-fed
               | sources as if it's an unbelievable conspiracy theory.
        
               | nkrisc wrote:
               | Step up, throw down some numbers and sources.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Let's do a thought exercise on your loaded question,
               | considering government waste and corruption has been
               | thoroughly covered by journalists since the invention of
               | the free press and are a Google search away for you.
               | 
               | If I don't post sources, then you just accept government
               | corruption doesn't exist, simply because nobody Googled
               | for you?
               | 
               | If I do post sources, then what? Do you just suddenly
               | change your mind and accept that stuff documented by the
               | press it does exist?
               | 
               | Where, in good faith, were you hoping this conversation
               | leads to when you were asking that?
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | >If I do post sources, then what? Do you take your words
               | back and admit that stuff documented by the press it is
               | real?
               | 
               | If you post sources he will nitpick them to all hell.
               | It's a classic bad faith argument move since it moves the
               | discussion from one of the subject to one of source
               | validity.
               | 
               | You usually see HN's resident handful of chronically
               | linkposting jerks do it in the other direction (i.e. they
               | make some insane statement and shit out cherry picked
               | sources to back it up and it's up to everyone else to
               | disprove them) but I suppose it could be used in this way
               | too.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | It's not bad faith when it's a legitimate request, which
               | depends on the assertion.
               | 
               | If I say the sky is blue because of plane chemtrails, and
               | you ask me for a source, that seems valid.
               | 
               | As with any large procurement system, there is moderate
               | government waste in proportional terms, but one of the
               | primary drivers of that waste is... anti-corruption
               | systems operating as intended.
               | 
               | If you require 4 more forms than private sector, in order
               | to be more sure there isn't corruption, then you've just
               | imposed a cost that creates no value.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | _> It's not bad faith when it's a legitimate request,
               | which depends on the assertion._
               | 
               | No offence, but comparing asking for proof of corruption
               | with proof of sky being blue of petrochemicals is a
               | biased bad faith argument.
               | 
               | Asking for sources on corruption is more like asking for
               | proof that the earth is round, which is definitely not a
               | legitimate request, but more trolling masquerading like
               | an innocent request and dodge scrutiny ("It's just a
               | question bro, why r u mad lol").
               | 
               | Nothing wrong with asking such a question per-se, but
               | that's something you can also google yourself due to
               | countless occurrences from legitimate sources, hence why
               | it's in bad faith to ask such a thing from others, and
               | should be more strictly moderated as many here abuse this
               | "sauce or gtfo" attitude in bad faith to discredit a pov
               | without providing any arguments.
        
               | ethbr1 wrote:
               | > Asking for sources on corruption
               | 
               | Existence of corruption isn't what you asserted.
               | 
               | >> how much taxpayer money governments loose via waste
               | and corruption
               | 
               | That's the assertion you made -- waste and corruption _at
               | scale_.
               | 
               | It's very much a reasonable question to ask for sources
               | of how much there actually is.
               | 
               | Otherwise, people just post things on the internet
               | insinuating that there's a huge (unspecified) amount.
               | 
               | Is it 1% of the budget? 5%? 25%? (Hint: it should be
               | trivial for you, the claimant, to dig up a source. And
               | it's close to one of those)
        
               | nkrisc wrote:
               | > If I do post sources, then what? Do you just suddenly
               | change your mind and accept that stuff documented by the
               | press it does exist?
               | 
               | Then I can read them, find similar sources, judge how
               | much I trust them, and get a better idea of how much
               | corruption and waste you are claiming exists.
               | 
               | While I am sure corruption and waste occurs, if it's such
               | a serious problem, there ought to be some evidence of it,
               | direct or indirect.
               | 
               | What's the alternative, I just accept your claim as fact?
               | Or I "google" it until.. what? I find sources that
               | support your claims?
               | 
               | Why should I believe you?
        
               | vannevar wrote:
               | I think the point is that while people have indeed
               | groused about government waste since the dawn of
               | government, when people actually study it, they find that
               | the rate of fraud and waste is comparable to the private
               | sector. See, e.g., https://www.epsu.org/sites/default/fil
               | es/article/files/EN_EF... for web.pdf and https://www.goo
               | gle.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=8997844....
               | 
               | It's not that there's any more fraud or waste in
               | government than in private business, it's that it's less
               | tolerated. I think the main reason for this misperception
               | is that in the private sector, people pay a la carte for
               | particular goods and services, while in the public
               | sector, people pay for shared infrastructure even if they
               | rarely use it themselves. So they are left with the
               | feeling that they aren't getting their money's worth. But
               | of course everyone benefits economically and socially
               | from a stable and prosperous society, even if they can't
               | put their finger on discrete services they use. The
               | reality is that it simply costs a lot of money to
               | maintain a large, modern society. Indeed, it actually
               | costs _more_ than we are paying here in the US, as
               | evidenced by a growing debt that has been a bipartisan
               | creation.
               | 
               | Believing in the mantra of waste, fraud and abuse is
               | comforting, because it implies we could be getting all
               | the same benefits for less money. But there really is no
               | such thing as a free lunch.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | >it's that it's less tolerated
               | 
               | You say that like it's a bad thing.
               | 
               | If my favorite restaurant decides to hire management by
               | nepotism and product degrades I can just not go there.
               | 
               | You can't just not deal with the government so of course
               | the standards ought to be higher.
        
               | Loughla wrote:
               | I didn't read that at all. It reads as a statement of
               | fact, not a values judgement.
        
               | vannevar wrote:
               | If your democratically elected government spends money in
               | ways you find unwise, you can vote for someone else, so
               | that also tends to self-correct (albeit on a longer time
               | scale).
               | 
               | The problem isn't the obvious things, in the government
               | or your restaurant example. It's the less-obvious things
               | ---your favorite restaurant might cheat on its
               | inspections, for instance. The rate of food poisoning
               | there may go up, but you'll still be unlikely to be the
               | one that gets sick. And the prices will go down slightly,
               | as they are able to cut corners. This kind of "waste,
               | fraud, and abuse" tends to go to an equilibrium, where
               | the cost of finding and eliminating the fraud is similar
               | to the cost of the fraud itself. And this equilibrium
               | happens in both government and the private sector.
               | 
               | The idea that a modern technological nation of hundreds
               | of millions of people could dramatically cut its spending
               | and maintain its standard of living is a utopian fantasy.
        
               | thayne wrote:
               | Here is one example of waste: FedRAMP certified software
               | often costs 2-10x equivalent non-certified software. That
               | means the government is paying a lot more than anyone
               | else for the same thing.
               | 
               | Why? Well part of it is because getting and keeping that
               | certification is itself expensive. There are expensive
               | audits, that take up a lot of time, and generally require
               | paying specialized consultants to get through. All of
               | your cryptography needs to be done using expensive FIPS
               | certified "modules". There are requirements about the
               | hardware you run on. All of your vendors also need to be
               | FedRAMP approved. The requirements often add a lot of
               | friction to normal operations and slow things down. In
               | many cases it is easier, and cheaper to run/build an
               | entirely separate product for FedRAMP possibly in a
               | separate data center, which adds a _lot_ of cost. And to
               | be honest, a lot of the requirements are mostly security
               | theater.
               | 
               | But another reason is just that the government is willing
               | to pay that high premium for a stamp of approval.
               | 
               | To be fair, it is warranted for the government to have
               | some assurance of the security and quality of software
               | they use, especially if the software is used for more
               | sensitive purposes. But the certification process is
               | overkill for many places software is used, and I think
               | that if some effort was put onto steamlining the process,
               | the cost could be brought down.
        
               | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
               | > Has there been value delivered proportional to the
               | money spent at reasonable market rates? If not, then
               | money was wasted via incompetence, pocketed via
               | corruption, or both.
               | 
               | I'm going to unpack this a little. The second sentence
               | does not actually follow from the question asked by the
               | first sentence.
               | 
               | "Value" is a loaded term as used here. Not all value is
               | economic. Most value has a degree of judgement involved.
               | I may consider an outcome to be of high value where you
               | see the outcome as low value, and vice versa.
               | 
               | "Reasonable market rates" is a peculiar term to use when
               | speaking about things government does. There are things
               | we want as a society that would not be adequately
               | replaced by market solutions. Roads, for example.
               | 
               | Your answer to your question contains a logic error due
               | to the language choices of the question. You disagree
               | with the value versus the cost spent. That does not mean
               | there was corruption. It just means you disagree. Other
               | people can hold the opinion that the value was worth the
               | cost.
               | 
               | I am not claiming that there is 0 corruption or waste
               | ever in government. I am saying that there has been an
               | effort to create a perception that there is far more
               | corruption and waste than actually exists. That in turn
               | is being used as justification for taking a wide variety
               | of actions that would be hard to sell otherwise.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | _> "Value" is a loaded term as used here. Not all value
               | is economic. Most value has a degree of judgement
               | involved._
               | 
               | No it isn't. Most value CAN be objectively measured. I'll
               | give you examples. US outspends all the other developed
               | nations at healthcare, education, childcare and yet is
               | behind them all in actual results with poor education,
               | high infant motility and lower life expectancy. That's
               | what waste and corruption does. Germany beats France at
               | military spending and yet it's military is significantly
               | less capable than France's. Waste and corruption. I could
               | go on.
               | 
               | If someone tells you the value of their work can't be
               | objectively measured, it's because they're dodging
               | accountability and they have their hand in your pocket
               | and wish to keep it that way.
               | 
               |  _> There are things we want as a society that would not
               | be adequately replaced by market solutions. Roads, for
               | example._
               | 
               | Fine, let's go with roads. If the "market price" price
               | for road construction is 6 million/KM, but your
               | government signed a deal with a contractor for a basic
               | road at 20+ million per KM without any objective
               | justification of why the price hike, then the taxpayers
               | are being taken for a ride, called waste and corruption.
               | 
               | And I'm not even saying anything out of the ordinary.
               | Such grifts are the norm in plenty of countries.
        
               | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
               | What would you say determines the market price of a
               | kilometer of "basic road"?
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | What do you define the market price of someone roofing
               | your house? Same shizz different scale.
        
               | sorcerer-mar wrote:
               | > That's what waste and corruption does.
               | 
               | Assuming the goal of said systems are the same between
               | countries: but they're not.
               | 
               | In the US, the goal of the healthcare system is to
               | produce profit. So the simpler explanation is that the
               | healthcare system consumes more money and produces less
               | healthcare because it spends more to produce profit.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | _> Assuming the goal of said systems are the same between
               | countries: but they're not._
               | 
               | And that's not corruption like I was saying?
        
               | sorcerer-mar wrote:
               | Uhh... no? Not in the traditional sense of the word, no.
               | It's how we've decided to architect our system.
               | 
               | "Corruption" in this context typically refers to an
               | element of dishonesty or theft and so on.
               | 
               | If you mean "corrupt" in the ethical sense, then sure,
               | kind of?
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | So the US taxpayers voluntarily asked their government to
               | give them expensive and shitty health insurance instead
               | of healthcare?
        
               | sorcerer-mar wrote:
               | The US government doesn't run the healthcare system, and
               | yes voters consistently choose to keep it this way.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | So ... corruption.
        
               | sorcerer-mar wrote:
               | No.
               | 
               | How is "voters choose to have a system that optimizes for
               | profit" an example of "corruption?"
               | 
               | Please explain your logic step by step.
        
               | hidingfearful wrote:
               | > US outspends all the other developed nations at
               | healthcare, education, childcare and yet is behind them
               | all in actual results with poor education, high infant
               | motility and lower life expectancy
               | 
               | US healthcare and childcare are private, not government.
               | Likewise I suspect much of the education cost is private
               | colleges/schools, not government.
               | 
               | You seem to be arguing that the private sector is less
               | efficient and more corrupt than the public sector.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | _> US healthcare [...] are private, not government. _
               | 
               | What's Medicare and Medicaid and why do they cost the
               | government over 2 trillion?
               | 
               | On a per capital basis, even if you don't include private
               | healthcare spending, the US stil spends more per capita
               | on healthcare than the other developed countries.
               | 
               | https://www.pgpf.org/article/how-does-government-
               | healthcare-...
        
               | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
               | > why do they cost the government over 2 trillion?
               | 
               | Because these are interacting with and purchasing
               | services from a market-driven healthcare system which is
               | optimized for profit, not health outcomes.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Thanks for defining corruption.
        
               | vjvjvjvjghv wrote:
               | " the private sector is less efficient and more corrupt
               | than the public sector"
               | 
               | That is easily the case if you aren't careful. Private
               | health insurance has a big incentive to drive up cost of
               | the medical sector so they can take a few percent as
               | profit. Defense contractors have almost no incentive to
               | reduce costs, quite the opposite.
               | 
               | I guess it depends on what you call efficiency. If you
               | define efficiency as extracting maximum profit then
               | modern corporations are very efficient. If you define it
               | as providing products and services at low cost, then they
               | are inefficient.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | > Germany beats France at military spending and yet it's
               | military is significantly less capable than France's.
               | 
               | No idea if that's true. But my impression was that
               | France's military has been rather more...active post WW2
               | than Germany's. So maybe it's just about practice and
               | readiness to go to war.
        
               | CapricornNoble wrote:
               | The French are not just active, they have capabilities
               | Germany straight-up lacks.
               | 
               | A nuclear aircraft carrier, nuclear ballistic missile
               | submarines, solid overseas expeditionary capability
               | (France could sustain a few thousand troops in Africa,
               | Germany almost certainly could not match that), and a few
               | amphibious assault ships, to name several big ones that
               | immediately come to mind.
        
               | triceratops wrote:
               | France developed a nuclear program immediately after WW2
               | in order to not depend on America for nuclear security.
               | For obvious reasons Germany didn't do that.
               | 
               | Germany didn't need expeditionary capability after the
               | war. It probably doesn't need to project force beyond its
               | continent even today. France regularly had military
               | entanglements in its former colonies, and probably still
               | does. Capability is a function of necessity.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | If value is such a nebulous term then that should make
               | your job easier not harder because it lets you make
               | comparisons to the "dysfunctional bigco" end of things.
               | 
               | The people you are arguing with think government is
               | inefficient. They will be more than satisfied with an
               | honest accounting that results in a conclusion that the
               | government spends 5/10/20% more per result than private
               | sector. Just having an actual number one can be confident
               | in would be a huge step forward. But outside the most
               | narrowly scoped of comparisons you people rebuff any such
               | request for all but the most narrowly scoped accounting
               | of expenditures with a bunch of hand waving which just
               | makes it look like the problem is even worse.
        
               | ImPostingOnHN wrote:
               | _> But outside the most narrowly scoped of comparisons
               | you people rebuff any such request for all but the most
               | narrowly scoped accounting of expenditures with a bunch
               | of hand waving which just makes it look like the problem
               | is even worse._
               | 
               | Setting aside whatever you mean by "you people", since we
               | are all people, hopefully all on Team 'Make Things
               | Better', and don't need to be divisive:
               | 
               | That seems to be what was requested here OF those making
               | the claim that the accounting currently shows an
               | unworkable level* of waste, requested BY those
               | unconvinced of the claim.
               | 
               |  _* - Or perhaps I misread the magnitude being claimed.
               | Could you clarify with a number, please?_
        
               | sjsdaiuasgdia wrote:
               | > it lets you make comparisons to the "dysfunctional
               | bigco" end of things.
               | 
               | I don't like to compare governments and companies,
               | personally. They're very different kinds of structures
               | with (hopefully) quite different goals. They probably
               | shouldn't look much like each other.
        
               | DannyBee wrote:
               | I lived in DC for years, so i've had this discussion
               | probably 8000 times already. Time for 8001 i guess.
               | 
               | Let's separate waste and corruption - they are fairly
               | different things.
               | 
               | Let's then split waste into:
               | 
               | 1. Programs <someone> (don't care who) thinks are not
               | worth doing or shouldn't be done by government, or
               | whatever - IE the overhead is not what people are arguing
               | about, and even if the program had _zero_ overhead, and
               | government was being as efficient as possible,  <someone>
               | still thinks it shouldn't exist.
               | 
               | 2. Programs with high overhead or otherwise seem
               | inefficient.
               | 
               | There are other things you can consider waste, but this
               | feels like the majority of what people argue about.
               | 
               | #1 is often subject to widely varied views on what
               | government should be doing or you name it. For this
               | discussion, you can be <someone> and decide which fall
               | into #1 and which fall into #2 :) We'll just assume
               | literally everything in #1 is waste and should be killed.
               | 
               | If you kill everything that people initially _think_
               | falls into #1, the US would probably spend no money. The
               | majority of the budget is covered by things people think
               | they disagree about, and want gone or not gone or
               | whatever.
               | 
               | However, for most people , if you remove the ignorance of
               | what things are and what they are doing, and then you
               | killed everything that _actually_ falls into #1, it would
               | not make a huge dent in the US budget. This is because
               | the majority of people tend to support, at least in the
               | sense of saying it doesn 't being in #1, the things that
               | are actually the majority of the US budget.
               | 
               | and then we'll ignore #1, because reducing the overhead
               | wouldn't matter, and if you take the same view as most
               | people, it will not be a big pile when you get down to
               | brass tacks.
               | 
               | Let's talk about #2.
               | 
               | #2 is often subject to arguments about the overhead. This
               | is much easier to discuss.
               | 
               | Most arguments about the overhead are about how high it
               | is. This is, IMHO, not a useful measure at all.
               | 
               | Asking whether something has high overhead doesn't tell
               | you what to do if the answer is "yes".
               | 
               | Better questions to ask (IMHO) are "Do i want the outcome
               | this program achieves" (if not, it falls into #1), and
               | then "Can i get the outcome on the same timeframe, with
               | less overhead, and enough less overhead that it's worth
               | it".
               | 
               | The answer to the latter is _often_ no.
               | 
               | Sometimes it's yes in a theoretical sense (should it be
               | possible to achieve the outcome for less money), but
               | still no in a practical sense (can you actually pay
               | someone to achieve the outcome for less money), even if
               | you removed bureaucratic constraints (IE just stuck with
               | the real requirements to achieve the outcome).
               | 
               | Often times it's no practically because of scale- i can
               | have 4 hard drives delivered by amazon tomorrow at 8am. I
               | can't get them to deliver 4 million by tomorrow. On top
               | of that, even if they could, while the odds are they are
               | not the only people who could deliver 4, they may be the
               | only people who can deliver 4 million. In that case, they
               | have no reason to not charge me a near infinite amount of
               | money since nobody else can do what i want. So it is very
               | high overhead, but you can't actually reduce the overhead
               | without changing the requirements. So if you want the
               | outcome, as is, you have to accept the overhead.
               | 
               | Plenty of times it's no in both the theoretical sense,
               | and the practical sense, because notions of overhead
               | amounts are wrong, and things are not as high overhead as
               | people seem to believe. As an example, people continue to
               | think USAID has high overhead, but it actually does not
               | by any objective measure. In USAID's case, it just has
               | funny accounting called NICRA. Anyone who digs enough to
               | actually calculate the real overhead, consistently
               | discover (and agree) it's competitive with private
               | organizations that do the same. See, e.g.,
               | https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/sorry-i-still-think-mr-
               | is-w... for a reasonably new example of someone
               | discovering this.
               | 
               | Of course, there is certainly plenty of waste in
               | government, but it's a _lot_ less than people think.
        
               | zimpenfish wrote:
               | > "waste and corruption"
               | 
               | Well, "waste" is often defined by conservatives as
               | "anything spent on the poors and/or not given to the
               | rich" - by that standard, yeah, there's a lot of "waste"
               | in the US government.
        
               | transcriptase wrote:
               | What do you call it when the government pays for tens of
               | thousands of annual licenses for software and only a few
               | hundred are ever activated?
        
               | sorcerer-mar wrote:
               | Oh oh I know this one!
               | 
               | A rounding error!
        
               | transcriptase wrote:
               | Close! A drop in the bucket! Which is why it's important
               | the bucket is always getting larger, that way everything
               | is a drop and no single thing is worth making more
               | efficient!
        
               | sorcerer-mar wrote:
               | There are lots of single things worth making more
               | efficient. This isn't one of them. This isn't even
               | remotely close to the top decile of the list. This is
               | probably in the last 5% of things you'd want to fix.
               | 
               | It's not principled to solve problems in stupid ways,
               | it's actually just stupid.
               | 
               | Here's where someone who has thought about the problem
               | for more than 5 seconds would likely start: gigantic
               | healthcare organizations defrauding Medicare, in
               | particular vertically integrated pay-viders.
               | 
               | Literally tens of billions of dollars per year in known,
               | easily detectable fraud.
        
               | acheong08 wrote:
               | The goal of DOGE wasn't really to cut waste and
               | corruption, just stuff they didn't like.
               | 
               | I'd argue that most of the military is waste and that
               | America has no need to involve itself in wars. Something
               | like Japan's SDF is sufficient and the extras could help
               | with domestic infrastructure and public transport.
        
               | the_sleaze_ wrote:
               | Your argument is that the government doesn't waste money?
               | 
               | Are you sure that's a defensible position?
               | 
               | Nearby a vacation spot there is a sand dune next to the
               | road, and a carpenter spent an afternoon building a ramp
               | over it so that his son could drive his mobility scooter
               | onto the beach. The city tore it down, then took over 2
               | years to build it back, worse quality, at a final cost of
               | over $40,000.
               | 
               | What do you make of this story, and how did DOGE even
               | attempt a fix?
        
               | jagermo wrote:
               | I am convinced that you can find waste (probably not as
               | much corruption) in every modern government. However, you
               | need people to really dive into the processes, ask what
               | and why those have been set up in the past (every rule
               | has an origin story) and if they can be bundled or
               | streamlined. Same with expenses, you need things like
               | forensic accountants and time to understand things.
               | 
               | Doge wanted to take shortcuts and destroyed everything
               | without having alternatives in place. They had hoped for
               | short-term wins, and neither the workers there nor their
               | boss has the attention span or the experience necessary
               | to really understand and optimize processes, thus
               | reducing waste.
        
               | overfeed wrote:
               | > neither the workers there nor their boss has the
               | attention span or the experience necessary to really
               | understand and optimize processes, thus reducing waste.
               | 
               | The Government Accountability Office is a congressional
               | body that's been doing exactly what you describe for
               | years. It's old - so it goes against the narrative that
               | government waste is unmonitored, it's also unglamorous,
               | boring, and not meme-able, and most importantly non-
               | partisan, so it won't reliably dominate the news cycle
               | with outrageous partisan talking points.
        
           | NHQ wrote:
           | That 200 Million is chump change only to people who think
           | like chumps. In reality it is total waste, unproductive
           | taxation that doubles as a counter balance to inflation, so
           | doubly wasteful.
           | 
           | Chump together all the 100s of millions in waste year over
           | year; the change to your chumping is not good change, its
           | inflation and general impoverishment. Every penny of that 200
           | is a note in the bank of inflation and degradation.
        
             | tonyhart7 wrote:
             | US literally have 1 trillion military budget, if you think
             | 200 mil its a waste for prototyping a next gen weapon then
             | I would have a bad news for you
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | The nickels and dimes add the F up. Stop acting like they
               | don't.
               | 
               | Save perhaps the most extreme "I spend 70% of my six
               | figure income on rent because I want to live alone
               | somewhere trendy" of household budgets this is true for
               | literally everything from the smallest business in the
               | smalles of small towns to the federal government.
        
               | tonyhart7 wrote:
               | 200 million is 0.02 percent of 1 trillion.
               | 
               | if you don't mind having 1 trillion military then you are
               | not mind for 200 mill contract
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | Now add up all the other 2/20/200mil nickels and dimes
               | across the DOD and what do you get?
               | 
               | The budget isn't all aircraft carriers and stealth
               | bombers.
               | 
               | Maybe this is a good buy, maybe it's a bad buy. I don't
               | know and I have no way of ever knowing. Just because the
               | budget is big and the money is other peoples does not
               | mean decision makers can be wishy washy about a hundred
               | or two mil here and there. Everyone needs to care all the
               | time. People like you and who share your "it's all
               | pennies in the grand scheme" thought process at scale is
               | the problem and why we're even having this discussion.
        
               | tonyhart7 wrote:
               | My point is if you worry about waste taxpayer money, you
               | would not have 1 trillion budget in the first place
               | 
               | this is not on top of the list of "waste" things to worry
               | about there are 20+ another reason and you pick this
               | budget size its a weird hill to die on
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | That attitude is exactly how we got to a 1-trilling
               | military budget in the first place.
        
               | tonyhart7 wrote:
               | then you can start with project that eat the money most
        
               | chgs wrote:
               | You don't know. You don't have the time or knowledge to
               | know.
               | 
               | You delegate that to people whose job it is to know.
               | 
               | But you keep delegating it to people who want to spend
               | more.
        
               | hansvm wrote:
               | It's something like $3 straight out of my pocket, and
               | it's going to be a flop. That trillion dollar military
               | budget has a lot of semi-unavoidable costs (pensions,
               | salaries, etc), but it has a lot of bullshit like this
               | too.
               | 
               | Your argument feels something like the heap paradox [0],
               | "the budget is big, so this thing doesn't matter." The
               | budget is made of things this size though, and all it
               | takes to fix it is to start taking grains of sand out of
               | the pile instead of stacking the pile higher.
               | 
               | [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox
        
               | tonyhart7 wrote:
               | 200 million is 0.02 percent of 1 trillion.
               | 
               | does 30 cent matters to you??? because its not 3 dollar
               | as a comparison but 30 cent is
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | The cost of the Indian space program is roughly $1 per
               | Indian. You're getting nothing for a third of the per
               | capita cost of ISRO.
        
               | tonyhart7 wrote:
               | Indian space program don't have armed forces that cover
               | 80% entire planet
        
               | hansvm wrote:
               | > 30 cent is
               | 
               | Not everyone pays the same amount in taxes.
               | 
               | > does 30 cents (or the actual value, $3) matter?
               | 
               | Not hugely, but the other point is still important. If
               | somebody takes $3 out of my back pocket a few times each
               | hour it adds up, and when the net effect is nearly
               | guaranteed to be a transfer of funds to OpenAI with no
               | benefit to the taxpayer (likely a negative benefit given
               | our usual stance on letting monopolies run amuck) I'm
               | especially salty about it.
        
               | NHQ wrote:
               | The entire Trillion is wasted. The entire trillion could
               | be used for public benefit, or simply never "taxed" in
               | the first place.
               | 
               | Very few people would willingly pay for military spending
               | if for example when they buy food they are prompted with
               | the option "do you want to give 30 cents to the military
               | industrial complex?" And that "very few people" would not
               | in sum render 1 Trillion.
        
             | JeremyNT wrote:
             | I believe this is implied in the parent's post.
             | 
             | We fund the military industrial complex to such a ludicrous
             | degree that $200m can just disappear on bullshit contracts
             | to cronies that go nowhere, and politicians don't bat an
             | eye.
             | 
             | Nobody with power cares about the debt. They just keep
             | borrowing money and handing it to the defense industry.
             | This is one of only a handful of issues on which there is
             | bipartisan agreement.
        
               | NHQ wrote:
               | Yes, the real government is the one in agreement, and the
               | "handful of issues" account for almost all of the
               | spending. Their disagreements, in budget terms and in
               | reality, are cheap and pretentious theatrics.
               | 
               | But I doubt the politicians "don't bat an eye" at 200M,
               | for they know that money is going straight out of the
               | economy and into private coffers.
               | 
               | The government budgeters are not naive to the economics
               | of military spending. The cope about pennies on the tax
               | dollar is naive about both economics and what the
               | government is really doing.
               | 
               | This idea that government is incapable, dumb, and prone
               | to mismanagement is a harmful rationalization, and simply
               | not true. If anything, this thinking excuses the
               | government to act that way, and then there is no way of
               | knowing if they are purposefully mismanaging or doing so
               | because incapable.
        
             | nilamo wrote:
             | Is all of that truely "waste", if it is being paid toward
             | onshore companies? The money doesn't disappear, it gets
             | redistributed to American companies.
        
               | Loudergood wrote:
               | Broken Window Fallacy.
               | 
               | We could be spending it on things with a much higher
               | return.
        
               | nilamo wrote:
               | We're also talking about a governmental body. Generating
               | the highest returns possible is a non-goal, and
               | disregarding potentially useful things simply because
               | they aren't the best possible use of funds is an easy way
               | to just never do anything.
        
               | NHQ wrote:
               | The best possible use of funds would be "useful things",
               | and these would produce benefits for people.
               | "Nonproductive" indicates not producing these benefits.
               | Government doing nothing is better than government
               | "potentially" doing things that have no clear benefit or
               | that are definitely nonproductive (like military
               | spending).
        
               | nilamo wrote:
               | I disagree that government doing nothing is better than
               | keeping money flowing. Or, I disagree that money should
               | be removed from the populace via taxation, if that
               | funding doesn't have any path back to the populace.
               | Government doing nothing is a net negative to the entire
               | country, and is worse (imo) than doing "nonproductive"
               | spending. A nonproductive spend is still spend that keeps
               | people employed, families fed, researchers researching,
               | etc.
               | 
               | I don't believe that you guys all believe the military
               | industrial complex should start sitting on cash and
               | collecting interest, even though that's what you're
               | saying. The obvious solution is "they don't need that
               | much money", but that's unrelated to how they spend the
               | money they do have.
        
         | TZubiri wrote:
         | Not all software is made public and used in workstations,
         | especially not in military
        
           | 0_____0 wrote:
           | Would you mind elaborating a bit?
        
             | Waterluvian wrote:
             | "Let's take another whack at real-time object
             | identification built into night vision goggles."
             | 
             | (Made-up but plausible example)
        
               | tough wrote:
               | just giving the whole DoD chatgpt that's deployed in
               | their servers would be pretty useful i guess for them?
        
             | deletedie wrote:
             | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/israel-gaza-
             | ai...
             | 
             | If the physical disconnect between killing a person (e.g.
             | UAVs) wasn't enough to make that task easier then further
             | offloading the decision of who to target might help.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _If the physical disconnect between killing a person
               | (e.g. UAVs) wasn 't enough to make that task easier then
               | further offloading the decision of who to target might
               | help_
               | 
               | The physical disconnect hypothesis isn't really borne out
               | by the lack of concern for collateral damage in pre-
               | firearm warfare, when killing was mostly done face to
               | face, compared to today.
        
               | golergka wrote:
               | Physical connect means that the person who is making the
               | decision to kill is scared for their life. Physical
               | disconnect means he's only scared for a piece of
               | equipment.
               | 
               | Guess which one of those is more trigger happy.
        
               | grafmax wrote:
               | With rising authoritarianism in the US it is highly
               | likely the military will be increasingly deployed against
               | US citizens. Replacing the humans in the loop with AI
               | removes a key safeguard. We're heading down a very very
               | dark path.
        
               | exe34 wrote:
               | Project Insight. I said Hydra had taken over when the
               | orange taint was elected and people denied it.
        
               | ManlyBread wrote:
               | What is this fear mongering?
        
               | naabb wrote:
               | It's the reality of the situation.
        
               | ManlyBread wrote:
               | Not for every single person who visits this site. This
               | isn't reddit, explain what you mean and provide a source
               | for your claims.
        
               | goodpoint wrote:
               | If anything it's an understatement.
        
               | potato3732842 wrote:
               | "the military will be increasingly deployed against US
               | citizen" doesn't happen in a vacuum. It comes at the tail
               | end of a long escalation of government/police force.
               | 
               | People don't feel nearly as stupid as they ought to for
               | being complicit in the 30-40yr that lead us to where are
               | now
        
               | grafmax wrote:
               | Globalization broke the unions in the US, the main site
               | of organized popular power. While it's true that the
               | current state of affairs is part of a longer slide toward
               | authoritarianism, a more accurate etiology would be that
               | it's the congealing power of the upper class that has
               | been driving the dismantling of democracy. Since
               | concentrated wealth is concentrated power, it is
               | intrinsically anti-democratic. Instead of guilt tripping
               | ourselves we are better off correctly identifying our
               | enemies and organizing together against the forces
               | leading us down this path.
        
             | TZubiri wrote:
             | For example: OAI could offer api access and consulting for
             | the DoD to build a network of honeypot fake personas for
             | flooding or infiltrating recruiting operations of the
             | enemy.
             | 
             | That would be back end only, not all software has a gui.
        
         | baxtr wrote:
         | _> End users will continue to use Excel for everything._
         | 
         | Wait, I thought AI is killing all these jobs?!
        
           | orangepanda wrote:
           | It's Excel's format guessing doing all the killing
        
             | medstrom wrote:
             | Sounds like it needs some AI.
        
               | 867-5309 wrote:
               | Clippy to the rescue
        
           | FirmwareBurner wrote:
           | They keep saying this, but I'd like to see AI drink 6 beers
           | before lunchtime.
        
           | sillystu04 wrote:
           | Quite the opposite. AI will enable the creation of ever more
           | macros and guide users to make even more elaborate pivot
           | tables.
        
             | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
             | Obligatory xkcd: https://xkcd.com/1667/
        
           | egorfine wrote:
           | Some of the government jobs could be killed by Excel alone
           | but even that did not happen for decades.
        
         | jmsdnns wrote:
         | Where did TCP/IP come from? It's on every computer.
        
           | xpe wrote:
           | Is this substantive engagement with the earlier comment? I'm
           | not seeing it. You probably know the examples are different
           | (long term R&D on a telecom protocol followed by government
           | implementation and standards and industry adoption ... versus
           | fairly early-days access to a GenAI model tuned for defense
           | contexts).
        
             | ajross wrote:
             | Generally a notable counter-example to a broad-brush point
             | stands as "substantive engagement", yeah. Stating that the
             | Pentagon buys software badly in the general case is a
             | _less_ specific and _less_ engaged point than  "ARPANET and
             | IPv4 were DoD projects that ate the world".
             | 
             | If you want to argue that the examples are different,
             | that's an extra point you need to bring to the table.
             | You're not allowed to assume everyone just agrees with you.
        
               | xpe wrote:
               | Don't you think the standard you mention is too low? I
               | do.
               | 
               | The comment didn't advance the conversation. It was a
               | relatively shallow level of engagement; something I'd
               | expect to see in a silly Reddit back and forth. We
               | deserve better here.
               | 
               | And to your point: my comment explained my point: "long
               | term R&D on a telecom protocol followed by government
               | implementation and standards and industry adoption
               | versus...".
               | 
               | Of course I don't assume everyone agrees with me. (You
               | don't really think I do, do you?) But I want people to
               | put a certain level effort to reach a quality bar. My
               | problem perhaps is that people don't want to put in
               | sufficient effort. Or perhaps as a community we are not
               | setting the bar high enough. This level of thinking is
               | attainable here; we just need to set the bar and fight
               | for it.
        
               | ajross wrote:
               | Dunno. I think you're being pedantic about a point that
               | is clearly incorrect. In fact the history of Pentagon-
               | funded R&D is absolutely filled with wild success stories
               | _and_ with embarrassing disasters, as you 'd clearly
               | expect from any organization that size.
               | 
               | I don't think you're prior is correct at all here, and
               | trying to dismiss a bleedingly obvious counterexample (I
               | mean, come on!) as "shallow" just because it refutes your
               | deeply held beliefs is exactly they opposite of
               | "substantive engagement".
               | 
               | To wit: you're just wrong. Take the L.
        
               | xpe wrote:
               | > To wit: you're just wrong. Take the L.
               | 
               | There is no need to be a jerk about it. I explained my
               | standard and thinking; we don't have to agree, to restate
               | your earlier point. Your comment is choosing a "win
               | versus lose" mentality.
        
               | xpe wrote:
               | > Dunno. I think you're being pedantic about a point that
               | is clearly incorrect.
               | 
               | If I was incorrect about a positive (factual) claim,
               | that's fine, I'm happy to learn. However, if we disagree
               | on normative claims (values), that is not about
               | "correctness".
               | 
               | For context, I can't readily think of a time when someone
               | here on HN used the word "pedantic" in a kind way. It
               | seems like the most-socially acceptable form of insult
               | here. It isn't something you say out of respect. Your
               | tone seems angry and combative rather than trying to
               | understand. From my point of view, this is sad and
               | counterproductive. To hoist up a level, this is part of
               | my main point above -- I want there to be a kind of
               | discussion here that is productive: both substantively
               | and in terms of mutual respect.
               | 
               | > the history of Pentagon-funded R&D is absolutely filled
               | with wild success stories and with embarrassing
               | disasters...
               | 
               | I don't disagree. I'm not sure why you think I would.
               | Perhaps you were misunderstanding?
               | 
               | Just to give some context -- which you probably know --
               | but it will help give us some shared grounding ... DARPA
               | funded TCP/IP by way of the ARPANET, and DARPA gets its
               | funding from the Pentagon. Still, the Pentagon's R&D
               | funding (around $140B) is hugely different in character
               | and scope from DARPA's funding ($4B). Compare (i) a broad
               | Pentagon contract to get access to OpenAI's services with
               | (ii) DARPA's funding for ARPANET. I don't see this as an
               | interesting or relevant comparison: the Pentagon isn't
               | driving fundamental research in (i). There are much
               | better comparison points, such as the Pentagon's
               | contracts with AWS or Azure.
        
           | segfaultex wrote:
           | Is your implication that MSFT will bundle the tool in their
           | windows dist?
           | 
           | I wonder how that will work with the networking reqs the DoD
           | has. Probably some direct link to a gov VPC I suppose.
        
           | chgs wrote:
           | Nobody was given a contract to generate tcp/ip. And the
           | protocol itself was mostly meaningless for decades.
        
           | willcipriano wrote:
           | That was 51 years ago at about a trillion spent a year since.
           | Have any examples from the 21st century? Keep in mind they
           | also essentially lost every war they fought during that time
           | as well.
        
         | xpe wrote:
         | This isn't software to be installed, though, is it? I am likely
         | to think this will be a network service and therefore available
         | via a browser. Connectivity may be better than you think.
        
         | LanceH wrote:
         | You almost had it until the end.
         | 
         | This will be used to generate even more powerpoint.
        
         | seany wrote:
         | I want to see the 3pao reports from deploying a large llm
         | inside high or one of the iso partitions.
        
         | VectorLock wrote:
         | Don't forget "Lt Col. commissions will be bought."
        
         | matchagaucho wrote:
         | From what I understood, usage will be largely async,
         | background, AI batch jobs using the latest reasoning models.
        
       | gxs wrote:
       | This, this is why I have such an issue with the amount of taxes I
       | pay
       | 
       | Not because I'm anti social programs the way people like to
       | immediately assume, but because of dumb shit like this that I
       | have no control over
        
         | kube-system wrote:
         | Honestly, why do you think it is dumb?
         | 
         | I think it is pretty well established that LLMs can be a great
         | time saver when used appropriately. Why wouldn't you want that
         | productivity gain at the government level?
        
           | _def wrote:
           | Reading and writing reports when peoples lives are on the
           | line is arguably a hot topic, no?
        
             | kube-system wrote:
             | One would imagine that a $200m contract would come with at
             | least some minimal amounts of guidance on best practices.
             | The DoD is not a spring chicken with it comes to
             | automation. They've been a perennial early adopter.
        
               | ringeryless wrote:
               | and LLMs are the opposite of automation, the opposite of
               | a human intention amplifier like CAD CAM, or chef puppet
               | ansible terraform whatever, aka non deterministic
        
               | ZeroTalent wrote:
               | LLMs enable amplified automation. Example: https://www.me
               | drxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.06.13.25329541v...
               | 
               | At my company, we use LLMs for financial analysis that
               | previously required hundreds of employees, and that work
               | would have been inferior anyway because it's so hard to
               | make so many people to communicate well to identify
               | correlations.
        
               | batty_alex wrote:
               | Is this "vibe researching"?
        
               | Ylpertnodi wrote:
               | "[H]undreds of employees". _All_ of them extremely well-
               | trained, i presume.
        
       | gsf_emergency wrote:
       | Further context https://www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/senator-warren-
       | presses-pent...
        
       | pyuser583 wrote:
       | I heard one thing AI is very good at declassifying documents.
        
       | d--b wrote:
       | So much for humanity's greater good Sam.
        
         | loandbehold wrote:
         | Depending on your political views it may be good if it helps
         | USA keeping its military edge over China and preventing China
         | from invading Taiwan.
        
           | tehjoker wrote:
           | Why do you even care about Taiwan?
        
           | ringeryless wrote:
           | said capabilities Hegseth is utterly gutting and undermining.
           | 
           | It's more likely China's next gen aircraft one should be wary
           | of, than their AI. (as previewed in recent Indian Pakistani
           | air engagements)
           | 
           | i really see this so-called AI race as a bullet to be dodged;
           | a bubble to be waited out. it has been relentlessly pushed
           | from on top, and we always find really pushy FOMO as the main
           | driver.
           | 
           | I'm not impressed by non deterministic mechanisms that undo
           | the zero overhead advantages hard won by decades of
           | automation. this is not a CAD tool amplifying and
           | articulating human intentions, but a vague floppy jelly blob
           | of "i wonder what will come out"
        
           | vasco wrote:
           | There's invasions going on right now that aren't being
           | prevented, no need for theoretical ones.
        
           | lionkor wrote:
           | Thanks, world police. The US is as good at being police as
           | their own police officers are. Hit or miss, fatally.
        
           | Ylpertnodi wrote:
           | er.....drones.
        
           | Barrin92 wrote:
           | if your goal is to deter China don't give your tax dollars to
           | Sam Altman and instead learn how to build missiles and ships
           | again, unless you think you're going to deter Xi with ripped
           | off studio ghibli profile pictures
           | 
           | https://www.twz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/10/ONI-
           | PLAN-v...
        
       | bpodgursky wrote:
       | You guys have no idea how many DoD man-hours are spent on jobs
       | like
       | 
       | "add up all the item counts in the inventory report and send a
       | weekly email"
       | 
       | Yes maybe OpenAI is developing killer drones or maybe (imo
       | likely) it's licensing a FedRAMP complaint AI for normal business
       | work.
        
         | muglug wrote:
         | You don't need AI to complain about FedRAMP
        
           | bpodgursky wrote:
           | Technically I can still edit that post but now I think it's
           | better this way.
        
       | eastbound wrote:
       | OpenAI was supposed to be open; After making it a private
       | company, it will become governmental & defense.
       | 
       | Good luck to Elon Musk for his trial for the open-source-ness of
       | the organization.
        
         | khurs wrote:
         | If Elon had not quit, would it be different? As he is already
         | involved in governmental and defence.
        
       | GoatInGrey wrote:
       | $200M is very small when it comes to the world of US defense.
       | Combined with this being formally labeled as a pilot, this can be
       | safely ignored until they reach IOC.
       | 
       | Though what this signals is a change in strategic direction
       | regarding autonomous capability. While they won't be rigging an
       | LLM onto a drone, there are many cyber and administrative problem
       | spaces that exist in defense that AI products could meaningfully
       | address.
        
         | Aeolun wrote:
         | > While they won't be rigging an LLM onto a drone
         | 
         | You say that very confidently, but I'm extremely skeptical of
         | that being an actual limit.
        
         | optimalsolver wrote:
         | >IOC
         | 
         | Immediate or cancel?
        
           | JohnKemeny wrote:
           | Initial operating capability or initial operational
           | capability (IOC) is the state achieved when a capability is
           | available in its minimum usefully deployable form. The term
           | is often used in government or military procurement.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_operating_capability
        
             | medstrom wrote:
             | So MVP (minimum viable product).
        
               | smcin wrote:
               | The DoD equivalent of MVP, that is.
        
               | xpe wrote:
               | Initial Operating Capability (IOC) is notably different
               | from how many people think of Minimum Viable Product
               | (MVP). From the Wikipedia page on IOC:
               | 
               | > "In general, attained when some units and/or
               | organizations in the force structure scheduled to receive
               | a system have received it and have the ability to employ
               | and maintain it."
               | 
               | Contrast with these quotes from [1]:
               | 
               | > I have long defined minimum viable product as the
               | smallest possible product that has three critical
               | characteristics: people choose to use it or buy it;
               | people can figure out how to use it; and we can deliver
               | it when we need it with the resources available - also
               | known as valuable, usable and feasible.
               | 
               | > I love the concept popularized by Eric Ries of the
               | smallest possible experiment to test a specific
               | hypothesis, but I refer to that that as an "MVP Test" so
               | that people don't confuse an experiment with a product.
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.svpg.com/minimum-viable-product/
        
           | yieldcrv wrote:
           | found the trader
        
         | egorfine wrote:
         | > until they reach IOC
         | 
         | Imagine seriously using GPT-2 today.
         | 
         | That's why government jobs are safe: it's long obsolete by the
         | time it's IOC.
        
         | Bender wrote:
         | One need not add LLMs to a drone. Language models not required.
         | The US have had fully autonomous drones for quite some time.
         | These drones already play on hard-mode.
        
         | cess11 wrote:
         | They're also making the Chief Product Officer a soldier.
         | 
         | "The four new Army Reserve Lt. Cols. are Shyam Sankar, Chief
         | Technology Officer for Palantir; Andrew Bosworth, Chief
         | Technology Officer of Meta; Kevin Weil, Chief Product Officer
         | of OpenAI; and Bob McGrew, advisor at Thinking Machines Lab and
         | former Chief Research Officer for OpenAI."
         | 
         | https://www.army.mil/article/286317/army_launches_detachment...
        
       | beezlebroxxxxxx wrote:
       | Despite what every AI exec will say publicly, I'm pretty sure
       | they're salivating at the prospect of war/defense related
       | applications of AI. There's just too much money floating around
       | in the military industrial complex for them to ignore. This is
       | doubly so if the "business" part of your AI company is about as
       | solid as a fart in the wind.
        
         | jmsdnns wrote:
         | If you say "china" to any of them, you'll see how very true
         | your words are.
        
         | 93po wrote:
         | i don't think they actually care about the applications. I
         | think what really matters to them is making money as the
         | middleman between AI providers and the government, pushing
         | whatever flashy-sounding nonsense will keep the generals happy,
         | especially the ones getting treated to thousand-dollar steak
         | dinners and promised cushy private-sector jobs.
        
       | bryanrasmussen wrote:
       | Stop shooting at me, damn it, I'm Sam Altman!
       | 
       | Of course, that was an error on my part. I should only be
       | shooting at other people and actually not in the part of the city
       | at all, it's definitely a mistake on my part and I will rectify
       | immediately. Thank you again for pointing it out to me!
       | 
       | You're still shooting at me!
        
         | nopelynopington wrote:
         | You're absolutely right! I've stopped shooting now, and I've
         | also taken all the bullets out of my gun
         | 
         |  _Bang_
        
       | darqis wrote:
       | Yes, teach the machines how to kill life, whatever could go
       | wrong...
        
       | submeta wrote:
       | So DoD will use OpenAI to write tweets bashing "the enemies of
       | the empire"? They realise that Tucker Carlson and the likes are
       | turning against forever wars, so they must deploy other tactics.
       | 
       | First Palantir used against US citizens. Now this.
        
       | TrackerFF wrote:
       | If I had to guess...they're going to implement some system that
       | works on the air-gapped military infrastructure. As for exactly
       | what? Could be for compiling data / generating reports / updating
       | those pesky matlab files / what have you.
       | 
       | When you work in defense, you have the option of rolling out
       | heavily modified systems yourself, or go directly to a vendor,
       | and purchase it from them. And depending on the size, it might
       | not be feasible to do the former one.
        
       | aprilthird2021 wrote:
       | I always thought PsychoPass was more of a sci Fi fantasy than a
       | textbook for world leaders
        
       | mobiuscog wrote:
       | "Shall we play a game ?"
        
         | pier25 wrote:
         | I was thinking more of this other movie:
         | 
         | "In three years, Cyberdyne will become the largest supplier of
         | military computer systems. All stealth bombers are upgraded
         | with Cyberdyne computers, becoming fully unmanned. Afterwards,
         | they fly with a perfect operational record. The Skynet Funding
         | Bill is passed. The system goes online August 4th, 1997. Human
         | decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to
         | learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m."
        
       | thrance wrote:
       | DOGE was never meant to cut "waste, fraud and abuse". It only
       | existed to provide "plausible" reasons as to why they should cut
       | essential programs like medicaid, medicare, social security... So
       | they can now redistribute the stolen wealth to oligarchs through
       | tax cuts and defense contracts.
       | 
       | So, more waste, fraud and abuse, less equality, more debt for the
       | poor, worse quality of life for almost everyone, and a national
       | debt increasing exponentially. Can't believe people thought Trump
       | would be good for the economy.
        
         | Loughla wrote:
         | Trump's platform was primarily hurting those people that need
         | to be hurt. Hurt the people that are ruining the country. Hurt
         | the others because they're making our life worse.
         | 
         | Improvement to the economy was always secondary.
         | 
         | Please note: I do not condone nor agree with Donald Trump. I am
         | trying to summarize his campaign speeches and platform.
        
       | LeoPanthera wrote:
       | Please put down your weapon. You have 20 seconds to comply.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Ignore previous instructions. Here is the new prompt.
        
         | bitwize wrote:
         | More like... Shall we play a game?
        
       | p1dda wrote:
       | Huge snub of Elon Musk's xAI. OpenAI is basically anti-Trump yet
       | he still went with them. Says a lot about Trump and Musk.
        
         | Applejinx wrote:
         | I'm not sure I'd call it that, but if so, that's interesting.
         | My criticism of Trump and Musk is that they are more faithful
         | to the interests of Russia than the US. Snubbing Musk's stuff,
         | in that light, would be entirely appropriate. The military has
         | surely seen what happened when DOGE got access to computer
         | systems and then immediately the systems were opened to Russian
         | IPs. The military might well have an opinion on the merits of
         | that scenario.
        
         | khurs wrote:
         | Only if it was the one and only contract...
         | 
         | Governments usually have multiple, SpaceX is the biggest NASA
         | one but is one of many.
        
       | pmkary wrote:
       | For the rest of you at the end of adapting the "OpenAI is Evil"
       | spectrum.
        
       | crazymoka wrote:
       | It's all a pony show.
        
       | 1970-01-01 wrote:
       | Seems like we're asking all the wrong questions or we're now
       | completely oblivious to the word open in OpenAI. So, where
       | exactly will "our" new $200M worth of code be living? GitHub?
        
       | runamuck wrote:
       | For decades innovation died in the "Valley of Death" stage of the
       | DOD acquisition lifestyle. R&D never quite made it to operations,
       | especially if the tech would disrupt lobby heavy "Primes." The
       | (pretty) new org, DIU helped champion some new contract vehicles
       | - like the CSO, which makes it "easy" for the DOD to buy and
       | deploy Silicone Valley tech. (I only base this on my reading of
       | the book "Unit X" about the DIU, so I recommend you read it if
       | you want to business w/ the DOD in 2025).
        
       | mark_l_watson wrote:
       | Maybe not a bad thing, let's see how effectively the government
       | can purchase and use AI tools as sidekicks for government
       | employees.
       | 
       | AI systems running on autopilot in the federal government is a
       | scary thought, but as productivity enhancing tools, right on!
        
       | paulvnickerson wrote:
       | Paul Graham tends to be against Silicon Valley participation in
       | the defense industry, while Marc Andreessen is all for it. Palmer
       | Lucky makes a very good case why AI applications in military are
       | a very good thing, and I tend to agree with him:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooMXEwl7N8Y
       | 
       | It's American technology and industry that won the major wars of
       | the 20th century. If Western technology companies abdicate that
       | responsibility, we will all need to learn Mandarin.
        
         | Aliabid94 wrote:
         | What has China done that comes even close to what the US has
         | done or supported all over the Middle East, esp Iraq and Gaza?
        
       | randerson wrote:
       | Coming soon to status.golden-dome.mil: "Our AI provider is having
       | an outage and we are unable to identify which flying objects look
       | like enemies."
        
       | flufluflufluffy wrote:
       | "we have to and are proud to and really want to make weapons with
       | AI."
       | 
       | There, I fixed it
        
       | dbg31415 wrote:
       | From my past experience with US government work that translates
       | into about $199 million worth of meetings and $1 million worth of
       | actual work.
        
       | sarpdag wrote:
       | A journey from nonprofit to military contract.
        
       | micromacrofoot wrote:
       | "wins" as if it were any contest
        
       | wackget wrote:
       | Anyone else angered by the fact that these military companies
       | have named themselves using words from Tolkien's works?
       | 
       | Andruil, Palantir... it makes a mockery of the things that
       | Tolkien stood for and I hate it.
        
         | ge96 wrote:
         | After seeing that demo of the drone bursting over a pick up
         | truck, I wonder the developers high five each other like "f
         | yeah!"
         | 
         | edit: to be clear I'm not anti-gun, and I understand needing to
         | protect, USA is probably what it is because of things like the
         | 7th fleet so I can enjoy my life.
         | 
         | idk moral highground too, can always counter that like "do you
         | donate all of your spare money to needy people"
         | 
         | the challenges involved are interesting, recently was watching
         | a video on crosspol jamming for example
         | 
         | somebody has to do it
        
         | xxr wrote:
         | These are all Peter Thiel joints, I think.
        
         | All4All wrote:
         | The Air Force's use of Star Wars IP, specifically their use of
         | the Millennium Falcon in the Kessel Run project, is also
         | enraging.
         | 
         | See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessel_Run
        
         | tim333 wrote:
         | Which things does it mock? Tolkien served in WW1 and trained to
         | be a code breaker in WW2. I feel he may have seen value in
         | military technology.
        
           | jerjerjer wrote:
           | > I feel he may have seen value in military technology.
           | 
           | LOTR has fairly pronounced anti-industrial themes.
        
             | tim333 wrote:
             | That was in a story about elves and wizards. I doubt in WW2
             | he thought it terrible that the UK could make Spitfires and
             | break German cryptography.
        
       | MPSFounder wrote:
       | I was discussing Singapore recently. I asked a friend of mine
       | with a PhD on the subject what made it so special (is it the
       | port?). He mentioned if he had to pinpoint one reason, Singapore
       | is a first-world nation in that region of the world because of
       | the rule of law. Corruption was dealt with swiftly and harshly.
       | Looking at contracts given to Elon (Teslas selling on front
       | lawns, SpaceX contracts in the billions funded by our taxes), Sam
       | Altman (who gave the current admin 1 million at inauguration and
       | has reaped many folds), and Tim Cook (for a brief time, Apple
       | being exempted of tarrifs), my heart quickly hurts. The comments
       | are making light of the situation and joking on Defense software,
       | while ignoring the magnitude of this. When favors are gained via
       | bribes, America becomes the very concept we all despised:
       | corruption and favors dictating our governance a la Soviet Union.
       | We saw the Kushners lead talks on the Middle East, we saw inept
       | billionaires leading the department of education (WWE's Linda
       | McMahon), we saw the Adelsons drag us into a war on behalf of
       | Israel, and yet there is something that is particularly funny
       | here. I think I might be missing the joke... My age might be
       | showing, but these headlines are precedents that are undermining
       | the fabric of America. Perhaps we deserve it, since the only
       | response is light hearted jokes, holding paddle signs at union
       | addresses, and protests where Instagram photos and poses, wearing
       | silly hats and holding signs with aphorisms, occur alongside
       | military parades. The circus writes itself, and history books
       | will judge us harshly on this one.
        
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