[HN Gopher] What happens when people don't understand how AI works
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       What happens when people don't understand how AI works
        
       Author : rmason
       Score  : 245 points
       Date   : 2025-06-08 20:25 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theatlantic.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theatlantic.com)
        
       | jdkee wrote:
       | Someone said, "The AI you use today is the worst AI that you will
       | ever use."
        
         | threeseed wrote:
         | I can't tell any difference between Claude 3.5, 3.7 and 4 for
         | coding.
         | 
         | So today is the same AI I used last year. And based on current
         | trajectory same I will use next year.
        
           | sroussey wrote:
           | I can tell the difference between those versions of Claude
           | quite easily. Not 10x better each version, but each is more
           | capable and the errors are fewer.
        
             | assimpleaspossi wrote:
             | But errors nonetheless.
        
               | plemer wrote:
               | You won't find perfection anywhere
        
               | th0ma5 wrote:
               | The imperfections of people are less imperfect than the
               | machines.
        
               | 8note wrote:
               | errors are all over the place no matter what. the
               | question is how predictable they are, and if they can be
               | spotted as they show up.
               | 
               | the best bugs are the ones that arent found for 5 years
        
           | smcleod wrote:
           | There is certainly a difference, however Anthropic did really
           | well with 3.5 - far, far better than any other provider could
           | do, so the steps from there been more incremental while other
           | providers have been playing catch up (for example Google's
           | Gemini 2.5 Pro is really their first model that's actually
           | useful for coding in any way).
        
         | user568439 wrote:
         | Someone also said the current AI is the less biased.
         | 
         | Future AI's will be more powerful but probably influenced to
         | push users to spend money or have a political opinion. So they
         | may enshitify...
        
           | Pingk wrote:
           | Given that no models are profitable for the parent company
           | afaik, it's only a matter of time before the money-squeezing
           | begins
        
           | stirfish wrote:
           | <think>I will reply with an example of bias in large language
           | models. This comment seems unrelated to farmers in South
           | Africa. </think>
           | 
           | Ultimately these machines work for the people who paid for
           | them.
        
         | add-sub-mul-div wrote:
         | That doesn't take into account how it will be used against its
         | customers once they're dependent on it. As any other service
         | inevitably will be.
         | 
         | It's like if we'd said the Youtube we used in 2015 was going to
         | be the worst Youtube we'd ever use.
        
         | andy99 wrote:
         | Is the internet today better than it's ever been? I can easily
         | imagine LLMs becoming ad-riden, propagandized, cloudlfare
         | intermediated, enshittified crap the way most of the internet
         | has.
        
         | davidcbc wrote:
         | Someone could have said "The Google you use today is the worst
         | Google you will ever use" 15 years ago and it may have sounded
         | wise at the time.
        
           | dwaltrip wrote:
           | That's a good point. But on the other hand Google search
           | usefulness didn't have "scaling laws" / lines on capability
           | graphs going up and up...
        
             | moduspol wrote:
             | Maybe not 15 years ago, but they did early on. And then at
             | some point, the lines kind of leveled off.
        
         | rhubarbtree wrote:
         | If there is one cliche that I'd like to outlaw, it is this one.
         | It's a vacuous tautology and yet I hear so many people parrot
         | it all the time.
         | 
         | There are many reasons to believe LLMs in particular are not
         | going anywhere fast.
         | 
         | We need major breakthroughs now, and "chain of thought" is not
         | one.
        
       | layer8 wrote:
       | https://archive.is/NJ9K0
        
       | mettamage wrote:
       | > Few phenomena demonstrate the perils that can accompany AI
       | illiteracy as well as "Chatgpt induced psychosis," the subject of
       | a recent Rolling Stone article about the growing number of people
       | who think their LLM is a sapient spiritual guide. Some users have
       | come to believe that the chatbot they're interacting with is a
       | god--"ChatGPT Jesus," as a man whose wife fell prey to LLM-
       | inspired delusions put it--while others are convinced, with the
       | encouragement of their AI, that they themselves are metaphysical
       | sages in touch with the deep structure of life and the cosmos. A
       | teacher quoted anonymously in the article said that ChatGPT began
       | calling her partner "spiral starchild" and "river walker" in
       | interactions that moved him to tears. "He started telling me he
       | made his AI self-aware," she said, "and that it was teaching him
       | how to talk to God, or sometimes that the bot was God--and then
       | that he himself was God."
       | 
       | This sounds insane to me. When we are talking about safe AI use,
       | I wonder if things like this are talked about.
       | 
       | The more technological advancement goes on, the smarter we need
       | to be in order to use it - it seems.
        
         | polotics wrote:
         | Psychosis will find anything as a seed idea to express itself,
         | even as basic a pattern as someone walking in lockstep with the
         | soon-to-be patient can trigger a break. So it's not surprising
         | that LLM chats would do the same.
        
           | daveguy wrote:
           | Yeah, but should we have psychosis force multipliers?
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | We have that now, in social media. If you create some way
             | for large numbers of people with the same nutty beliefs to
             | easily communicate, you get a psychosis force multiplier.
             | Before social media, nuttyness tended to be diluted by the
             | general population.
        
               | daveguy wrote:
               | Completely agree with you about social media. I'm not a
               | fan of social media algorithms and believe they also
               | produce much more harm than benefit.
        
         | hackingonempty wrote:
         | I think insane and lonely people are definitely on the safety
         | radar.
         | 
         | Even if todays general purpose models and models made by
         | predators can have negative effects on vulnerable people, LLMs
         | could become the technology that brings psych care to the
         | masses.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | > Few phenomena demonstrate the perils that can accompany AI
         | illiteracy as well as "Chatgpt induced psychosis," the subject
         | of a recent Rolling Stone article about the growing number of
         | people who think their LLM is a sapient spiritual guide.
         | 
         | People have been caught in that trap ever since the invention
         | of religion. This is not a new problem.
        
           | staunton wrote:
           | It doesn't have to be new to get worse and be important as a
           | consequence of this stuff...
        
         | nkrisc wrote:
         | Crazy people will always find a way to be crazy. It's not
         | surprising that many of these cases have a religious nature to
         | them.
        
         | stirfish wrote:
         | I'll admit, the first time I started ollama locally, I asked it
         | if I would hurt it if I turned it off. I have a master's degree
         | in machine learning and I know it's silly, but I still did it.
        
         | carlosjobim wrote:
         | We were warned:
         | 
         | "You shall not make idols for yourselves or erect an image or
         | pillar, and you shall not set up a figured stone in your land
         | to bow down to it, for I am the LORD your God."
         | 
         | A computer chip is a stone (silicon) which has been engraved.
         | It's a graven image.
         | 
         | Anything man-made is always unworthy of worship. That includes
         | computer programs such as AI. That includes man-made ideas such
         | as "the government", a political party, or other abstract
         | ideas. That also includes any man or woman. But the human
         | natural instinct is to worship a king, pharaoh or an emperor -
         | or to worship a physical object.
        
           | streb-lo wrote:
           | I mean, the bible is a man made pile of crap too...
        
             | carlosjobim wrote:
             | If God or The Gods are defined as not being man-made, then
             | each person will be able to find their own interpretation
             | and understanding. As contrary to man-made objects and
             | concepts. Most modern people worship "the government" or
             | "the state", even though there is no dispute whether it was
             | created by man or not and whether it acts under the
             | influence of man or not.
        
             | BirAdam wrote:
             | Whether or not you are religious, channeling the human
             | impulse to worship into something singular, immaterial,
             | eternal, without form, and with very precise rules to not
             | murder, lie, covet, etc... is quite useful for human
             | organization.
        
       | kelseyfrog wrote:
       | LLMs are divinatory instruments, our era's oracle, minus the
       | incense and theatrics. If we were honest, we'd admit that
       | "artificial intelligence" is just a modern gloss on a very old
       | instinct: to consult a higher-order text generator and search for
       | wisdom in the obscure.
       | 
       | They tick all the boxes: oblique meaning, a semiotic field, the
       | illusion of hidden knowledge, and a ritual interface. The only
       | reason we don't call it divination is that it's skinned in dark
       | mode UX instead of stars and moons.
       | 
       | Barthes reminds us that all meaning is in the eye of the reader;
       | words have no essence, only interpretation. When we forget that,
       | we get nonsense like "the chatbot told him he was the messiah,"
       | as though language could be blamed for the projection.
       | 
       | What we're seeing isn't new, just unfamiliar. We used to read
       | bones and cards. Now we read tokens. They look like language, so
       | we treat them like arguments. But they're just as oracular,
       | complex, probabilistic signals we transmute into insight.
       | 
       | We've unleashed a new form of divination on a culture that
       | doesn't know it's practicing one. That's why everything feels
       | uncanny. And it's only going to get stranger, until we learn to
       | name the thing we're actually doing. Which is a shame, because
       | once we name it, once we see it for what it is, it won't be half
       | as fun.
        
         | Arainach wrote:
         | >When we forget that, we get nonsense like "the chatbot told
         | him he was the messiah," as though language could be blamed for
         | the projection.
         | 
         | Words have power, and those that create words - or create
         | machines that create words - have responsibility and liability.
         | 
         | It is not enough to say "the reader is responsible for meaning
         | and their actions". When people or planet-burning random matrix
         | multipliers say things and influence the thoughts and behaviors
         | of others there is blame and there should be liability.
         | 
         | Those who spread lies that caused people to storm the Capitol
         | on January 6th believing an election to be stolen are
         | absolutely partially responsible even if they themselves did
         | not go to DC on that day. Those who train machines that spit
         | out lies which have driven people to racism and genocide in the
         | past are responsible for the consequences.
        
           | kelseyfrog wrote:
           | "Words have no essential meaning" and "speech carries
           | responsibility" aren't contradictory. They're two ends of the
           | same bridge. Meaning is always projected by the reader, but
           | that doesn't exempt the speaker from shaping the terrain of
           | projection.
           | 
           | Acknowledging the interpretive nature of language doesn't
           | absolve us from the consequences of what we say. It just
           | means that communication is always a gamble: we load the dice
           | with intention and hope they land amid the chaos of another
           | mind.
           | 
           | This applies whether the text comes from a person or a model.
           | The key difference is that humans write with a theory of
           | mind. They guess what might land, what might be misread, what
           | might resonate. LLMs don't guess; they sample. But the
           | meaning still arrives the same way: through the reader,
           | reconstructing significance from dead words.
           | 
           | So no, pointing out that people read meaning into LLM outputs
           | doesn't let humans off the hook for their own words. It just
           | reminds us that all language is a collaborative illusion,
           | intent on one end, interpretation on the other, and a vast
           | gap where only words exist in between.
        
         | krisoft wrote:
         | This sounds very wise but doesn't seem to describe any of my
         | use cases. Maybe some use cases are divination but it is a
         | stretch to call all of them that.
         | 
         | Just looking at my recent AI prompts:
         | 
         | I was looking for the name of the small fibers which form a
         | bird's feather. ChatGPT told me they are called "barbs". Then
         | using straight forward google search i could verify that indeed
         | that is the name of the thing i was looking for. How is this
         | "divination"?
         | 
         | I was looking for what is the g-code equivalent for galvo fiber
         | lasers are and ChatGPT told me there isn't really one. The
         | closest might be the sdk of ezcad, but it also listed several
         | other opensource control solutions too.
         | 
         | Wanted to know what are the hallmarking rules in the UK for an
         | item which consist of multiple pieces of sterling silver held
         | together by a non-metalic part. (Turns out the total weight of
         | the silver matters, while the weight of the non-metalic part
         | does not count.)
         | 
         | Wanted to translate the hungarian phrase "besurrano tolvaj"
         | into english. Out of the many possible translations chatGPT
         | provided "opportunistic burglar" fit the best for what I was
         | looking for.
         | 
         | Wanted to write an sql alchemy model and i had an approximate
         | idea of what fields i needed but couldn't be arsed to come up
         | with good names for them and find the syntax to describe their
         | types. ChatGPT wrote it for me in seconds what would have taken
         | me at least ten minutes otherwise.
         | 
         | These are "divination" only in a very galaxy brained "oh man,
         | when you open your mind you see everything is divination
         | really". I would call most of these "information retrieval".
         | The information is out there the LLM just helps me find it with
         | a convenient interface. While the last one is "coding".
        
           | kelseyfrog wrote:
           | Sure, some people stepped up to the Oracle and asked how to
           | conquer Persia. Others probably asked where they left their
           | sandals. The quality of the question doesn't change the
           | structure of the act.
           | 
           | You presented clear, factual queries. Great. But even there,
           | all the components are still in play: you asked a question
           | into a black box, received a symbolic-seeming response,
           | evaluated its truth post hoc, and interpreted its relevance.
           | That's divination in structural terms. The fact that you're
           | asking about barbs on feathers instead of the fate of empires
           | doesn't negate the ritual, you're just a more practical
           | querent.
           | 
           | Calling it "information retrieval" is fine, but it's worth
           | noticing that this particular interface feels like more than
           | that, like there's an illusion (or a projection) of latent
           | knowledge being revealed. That interpretive dance between
           | human and oracle is the core of divination, no matter how
           | mundane the interaction.
           | 
           | I don't believe this paints with an overly broad brush. It's
           | a real type of interaction and the subtle distinction focuses
           | on the core relationship between human and oracle: seeking
           | and interpreting.
        
             | gaganyaan wrote:
             | > you asked a question into a black box, received a
             | symbolic-seeming response, evaluated its truth post hoc,
             | and interpreted its relevance
             | 
             | So any and all human communication is divination in your
             | book?
             | 
             | I think your point is pretty silly. You're falling into a
             | common trap of starting with the premise "I don't like AI",
             | and then working backwards from that to pontification.
        
               | kelseyfrog wrote:
               | Hacker News deserves a stronger counterargument than
               | "this is silly."
               | 
               | My original comment is making a structural point, not a
               | mystical one. It's not saying that using AI feels like
               | praying to a god, it's saying the interaction pattern
               | mirrors forms of ritualized inquiry: question - symbolic
               | output - interpretive response.
               | 
               | You can disagree with the framing, but dismissing it as
               | "I don't like AI so I'm going to pontificate" sidesteps
               | the actual claim. There's a meaningful difference between
               | saying "this tool gives me answers" and recognizing that
               | the process by which we derive meaning from the output
               | involves human projection and interpretation, just like
               | divination historically did.
               | 
               | This kind of analogy isn't an attack on AI. It's an
               | attempt to understand the human-AI relationship in
               | cultural terms. That's worth engaging with, even if you
               | think the metaphor fails.
        
               | hexaga wrote:
               | > Hacker News deserves a stronger counterargument than
               | "this is silly."
               | 
               | Their counterargument is that said structural definition
               | is overly broad, to the point of including any and all
               | forms of symbolic communication (which is all of them).
               | Because of that, your argument based on it doesn't really
               | say anything at all about AI or divination, yet still
               | seems 'deep' and mystical and wise. But this is a seeming
               | only. And for that reason, it is silly.
               | 
               | By painting all things with the same brush, you lose the
               | ability to distinguish between anything. Calling all
               | communication divination (through your structural
               | metaphor), and then using cached intuitions about 'the
               | thing which used to be called divination; when it was a
               | limited subset of the whole' is silly. You're not talking
               | about that which used to be called divination, because
               | you redefined divination to include all symbolic
               | communication.
               | 
               | Thus your argument leaks intuitions (how that-which-was-
               | divination generally behaves) that do not necessarily
               | apply through a side channel (the redefined word). This
               | is silly.
               | 
               | That is to say, if you want to talk about the
               | interpretative nature of interaction with AI, that is
               | fairly straightforward to show and I don't think anyone
               | would fight you on it, but divination brings baggage with
               | it that you haven't shown to be the case for AI. In point
               | of fact, there are many ways in which AI is not at all
               | like divination. The structural approach broadens too far
               | too fast with not enough re-examination of priors,
               | becoming so broad that it encompasses any kind of
               | communication at all.
               | 
               | With all of that said, there seems to be a strong bent in
               | your rhetoric towards calling it divination _anyway_ ,
               | which suggests reasoning from that conclusion, and that
               | the structural approach is but a blunt instrument to
               | force AI into a divination shaped hole, to make 'poignant
               | and wise' commentary on it.
               | 
               | > "I don't like AI so I'm going to pontificate" sidesteps
               | the actual claim
               | 
               | What claim? As per ^, maximally broad definition says
               | nothing about AI that is not also about everything, and
               | only seems to be a claim because it inherits intuitions
               | from a redefined term.
               | 
               | > difference between saying "this tool gives me answers"
               | and recognizing that the process by which we derive
               | meaning from the output involves human projection and
               | interpretation, just like divination historically did
               | 
               | Sure, and all communication requires interpretation. That
               | doesn't make all communication divination. Divination
               | implies the notion of interpretation of something that is
               | seen to be causally disentangled from the subject. The
               | layout of these bones reveals your destiny. The level of
               | mercury in this thermometer reveals the temperature. The
               | fair die is cast, and I will win big. The loaded die is
               | cast, and I will win big. Spot the difference. It's not
               | structural.
               | 
               | That implication of essential incoherence is what you're
               | saying without saying about AI, it is the 'cultural
               | wisdom and poignancy' feedstock of your arguments,
               | smuggled in via the vehicle of structural metaphor along
               | oblique angles that should by rights not permit said
               | implication. Yet people will of course be generally
               | uncareful and wave those intuitions through - presuming
               | they are wrapped in appropriately philosophical guise -
               | which is why this line of reasoning inspires such
               | confusion.
               | 
               | In summary, I see a few ways to resolve your arguments
               | coherently:
               | 
               | 1. keep the structural metaphor, discard cached
               | intuitions about what it means for something to be
               | divination (w.r.t. divination being generally wrong/bad
               | and the specifics of how and why). results in an argument
               | of no claims or particular distinction about anything,
               | really. this is what you get if you just follow the logic
               | without cache invalidation errors.
               | 
               | 2. discard the structural metaphor and thus disregard the
               | cached intuitions as well. there is little engagement
               | along human-AI cultural axis that isn't also human-human.
               | AI use is interpretative but so is all communication.
               | functionally the same as 1.
               | 
               | 3. keep the structural metaphor and also demonstrate how
               | AI are not reliably causally entwined with reality along
               | boundaries obvious to humans (hard because they plainly
               | and obviously are, as demonstrable empirically in myriad
               | ways), at which point go off about how using AI is
               | divination because at this point you could actually say
               | that with confidence.
        
               | dingnuts wrote:
               | You're misunderstanding the point of structural analysis.
               | Comparing AI to divination isn't about making everything
               | equivalent, but about highlighting specific shared
               | structures that reveal how humans interact with these
               | systems. The fact that this comparison can be extended to
               | other domains doesn't make it meaningless.
               | 
               | The issue isn't "cached intuitions" about divination, but
               | rather that you're reading the comparison too literally.
               | It's not about importing every historical association,
               | but about identifying specific parallels that shed light
               | on user behavior and expectations.
               | 
               | Your proposed "resolutions" are based on a false
               | dichotomy between total equivalence and total abandonment
               | of comparison. Structural analysis can be useful even if
               | it's not a perfect fit. The comparison isn't about
               | labeling AI as "divination" in the classical sense, but
               | about understanding the interpretive practices involved
               | in human-AI interaction.
               | 
               | You're sidestepping the actual insight here, which is
               | that humans tend to project meaning onto ambiguous
               | outputs from systems they perceive as having special
               | insight or authority. That's a meaningful observation,
               | regardless of whether AI is "causally disentangled from
               | reality" or not.
        
               | gaganyaan wrote:
               | > humans tend to project meaning onto ambiguous outputs
               | from systems they perceive as having special insight or
               | authority
               | 
               | This applies just as well to other humans as it does AI.
               | It's overly-broad to the point of meaninglessness.
               | 
               | The insight doesn't illuminate.
        
               | albedoa wrote:
               | > That's a meaningful observation, regardless of whether
               | AI is "causally disentangled from reality" or not.
               | 
               | And regardless of how many words someone uses in their
               | failed attempt at "gotcha" that nobody else is playing.
               | There are certainly some folks acting silly here, and
               | it's not the vast majority of us who have no problem
               | interpreting and engaging with the structural analysis.
        
               | nosianu wrote:
               | > _So any and all human communication is divination in
               | your book?_
               | 
               | Words from an AI are just words.
               | 
               | Words in a human brain have more or less (depending on
               | the individual's experiences) "stuff" attached to them:
               | From direct sensory inputs to complex networks of
               | experiences and though. Human thought is mainly not based
               | on words. Language is an add-on. _(People without
               | language - never learned, or sometimes temporarily
               | disabled due to drugs, or permanently due to injury,
               | transient or permanent aphasia - are still consciously
               | thinking people.)_
               | 
               | Words in a human brain are an expression of deeper
               | structure in the brain.
               | 
               | Words from an AI have nothing behind them but word
               | statistics, devoid of any real world, just words based on
               | words.
               | 
               | Random example sentence: "The company needs to expand
               | into a new country's market."
               | 
               | When an AI writes this, there is no real world meaning
               | behind it whatsoever.
               | 
               | When a fresh out of college person writes this it's based
               | on some shallow real world experience, and lots of
               | hearsay.
               | 
               | When an experienced person actually having done such
               | expansion in the past says it a huge network of their
               | experience with people and impressions is behind it, a
               | feeling for where the difficulties lie and what to expect
               | IRL with a lot of real-world-experience based detail.
               | When such a person expands on the original statement
               | chances are highest that any follow-up statements will
               | also represent real life quite well, because they are
               | drawn not from text analysis, but from those deeper
               | structures created by and during the process of the
               | person actually performing and experiencing the task.
               | 
               | But the words can be exactly the same. Words from a human
               | _can_ be of the same (low) quality as that of an AI, if
               | they just parrot something they read or heard somewhere,
               | although even then the words will have more depth than
               | the  "zero" on AI words, because even the stupidest
               | person has _some_ degree of actual real life forming
               | their neural network, and not solely analysis of other 's
               | texts.
        
               | ben_w wrote:
               | > People without language - never learned, or sometimes
               | temporarily disabled due to drugs, or permanently due to
               | injury, transient or permanent aphasia - are still
               | consciously thinking people.
               | 
               | There are 40 definitions of the word "consciousness".
               | 
               | For the definitions pertaining to inner world, nobody can
               | tell if _anyone_ besides themselves (regardless of if
               | they speak or move) is conscious, and none of us can
               | prove to anyone else the validity of our own claims to
               | posess it.
               | 
               | When I dream, am I conscious in that moment, or do I
               | create a memory that my consciousness replays when I
               | wake?
               | 
               | > Words from an AI have nothing behind them but word
               | statistics, devoid of any real world, just words based on
               | words.
               | 
               | > [...]
               | 
               | > When a fresh out of college person writes this it's
               | based on some shallow real world experience, and lots of
               | hearsay.
               | 
               | My required reading at school included "Dulce Et Decorum
               | Est" by Wilfred Owen.
               | 
               | The horrors of being gassed during trench warfare were
               | alien to us in the peaceful south coast of the UK in
               | 1999/2000.
               | 
               | AI are limited, but what you're describing here is the
               | "book learning" vs. "street smart" dichotomoy rather than
               | their actual weaknesses.
        
               | tempodox wrote:
               | I can only agree with you. And I find it disturbing that
               | every time someone points out what you just said, the
               | counter argument is to reduce human experience and human
               | consciousness to the shallowest possible interpretation
               | so they can then say, "look, it's the same as what the
               | machine does".
        
               | kenjackson wrote:
               | I think it's because the brain is simply a set of
               | chemical and electrical interactions. I think some
               | believe when we understand how the brain works it won't
               | be some "soulful" other worldly explanation. It will be
               | some science based explanation that will seem very
               | unsatisfying to some that think of us as more than
               | complex machines. The human brain is different than LLMs,
               | but I think we will eventually say "hey we can make a
               | machine very similar".
        
               | tempodox wrote:
               | It looks like you did exactly what I described in my
               | parent comment, so it doesn't add anything of substance.
               | Let's agree to disagree.
        
               | lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote:
               | The logic is that you preemptively shut down dissenting
               | opinions so any comments with dissenting opinions are
               | necessarily not adding anything of substance. They made
               | good points and you simply don't want to discuss them;
               | that does not mean the other commenter did not add
               | substance and nuance to the discussion.
        
               | rdtsc wrote:
               | The deconstruction trick is a bit like whataboutism. It
               | sort of works on a shallow level but it's a cheap shot.
               | You can say "this is just a collections of bites and
               | matrix multiplications". If it's humans -- "it's just
               | simple neurons firing and hormones". Even if it's some
               | object: "what's the big deal, it's just bunch of
               | molecules and atoms".
        
             | krisoft wrote:
             | > some people stepped up to the Oracle and asked how to
             | conquer Persia. Others probably asked where they left their
             | sandals.
             | 
             | And if the place would be any good at the second kind of
             | queries you would call it Lost&Found and not the Oracle.
             | 
             | > illusion (or a projection) of latent knowledge being
             | revealed
             | 
             | It is not an illusion. Knowledge is being revealed. The
             | right knowledge for my question.
             | 
             | > That interpretive dance between human and oracle is the
             | core of divination, no matter how mundane the interaction.
             | 
             | Ok, so if I went to a library, used a card index to find a
             | book about bird feather anatomy, then read said book to
             | find that the answer to my question is "barb" would you
             | also call that "divination"?
             | 
             | If i would have paid a software developer to turn my
             | imprecise description of a database table into precise and
             | thight code which can be executed would you also call that
             | "divination"?
        
               | anon-3988 wrote:
               | The difference is between saying '"I want a hammer" and
               | it magically pops in your hand' versus '"I want a hammer"
               | and I have to chop some wood, gather some metals, heat it
               | up...'.
               | 
               | Both gets you a hammer, but I don't think anyone would
               | call the latter magical/divine? I think its only
               | "magical" simply because its incomprehensible...how does
               | a hammer pops into reality? Of course, once we know
               | EXACTLY how that works, then it ceases to be magical.
               | 
               | Even if we take God, if we fully understand how He works,
               | He would no longer be magical/divine. "Oh he created
               | another universe? This is how that works..."
               | 
               | The divinity comes from the fact that it is
               | incomprehensible.
        
             | tough wrote:
             | I always like to compare tongue in cheek, llm's with
             | I-ching
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Ching
        
               | AlecSchueler wrote:
               | Why?
        
               | tough wrote:
               | i copy pasted my comment and your question to chatgpt, so
               | this isnt my answer but the AI's:
               | 
               | make your own conclusions
               | 
               | Because both LLMs and the I Ching function as mirrors for
               | human interpretation, where: * The I Ching offers cryptic
               | symbols and phrases--users project meaning onto them. *
               | LLMs generate probabilistic text--users extract
               | significance based on context.
               | 
               | The parallel is:
               | 
               | You don't get answers, you get patterns--and the meaning
               | emerges from your interaction with the system.
               | 
               | In both cases, the output is: * Context-sensitive * Open-
               | ended * Interpreted more than dictated
               | 
               | It's a cheeky way of highlighting that users bring the
               | meaning, not the machine (or oracle).
        
             | narrator wrote:
             | You're describing what narrative archetype it is most
             | similar to from ancient history, not what it actually is.
        
             | zzbzq wrote:
             | The LLMs do have "latent knowledge," indisputably, the
             | latent knowledge is beyond reproach. Because what we do
             | know about the "black box" is that inside it, is a database
             | of not just facts, but understanding, and we know the model
             | "understands" nearly every topic better than any human.
             | Where the doubt-worthy part happens is the generative step,
             | since it is tasked with producing a new "understanding"
             | that didn't already exist, the mathematical domain of the
             | generative function exceeds the domain of reality. And,
             | second of all, because the reasoning faculties are far less
             | proven than the understanding faculties, and many queries
             | require reasoning about existing understandings to derive a
             | good, new one.
        
               | datadrivenangel wrote:
               | LLMs have latent knowledge insofar as it can be distilled
               | out of the internet...
        
               | whilenot-dev wrote:
               | *or any digitized proprietary works, just as long as they
               | can be parsed correctly. don't worry, the means of how to
               | optain these works doesn't seem to matter[0]
               | 
               | [0]: https://www.arl.org/blog/training-generative-ai-
               | models-on-co...
        
             | falcor84 wrote:
             | > Others probably asked where they left their sandals.
             | 
             | This to me is massive. The Oracle of Delphi would have no
             | idea where you left your sandals, but present day AIs
             | increasingly do. This (emergent?) capability of combining
             | information retrieval with flexible language is amazing,
             | and its utility to me cannot be overstated, when I ask a
             | vague question, and then I check the place where the AI led
             | me to, and the sandals are indeed there.
             | 
             | P.S. Thank you for introducing me to the word "querent"
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | The particularly amazing part is that both the Oracle and
               | the LLM said 'Right where you left them,' but only the
               | LLM was correct.
        
             | 725686 wrote:
             | "how to conquer Persia" and "what is the name of the small
             | fibers which form a bird's feather" are very different
             | kinds of questions. There is no one right answer for the
             | first. That is divination. The second is just information
             | retrieval.
        
               | diffeomorphism wrote:
               | Which the LLM then does not do and instead makes up
               | likely text.
               | 
               | As prominent examples look at the news stories about
               | lawyers citing nonexistent cases or publications.
               | 
               | People think that LLMs do information retrieval, but they
               | don't. That is what makes them harmful in education
               | contexts.
        
           | navane wrote:
           | What about the times you didn't get a coherent answer and you
           | gave up and looked elsewhere?
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | Almost proves it is not an oracle then, not perceived as
             | one.
             | 
             | Rephrasing: LLMs are the modern day oracle that we
             | disregard when it appears to be hallucinating, embrace when
             | it appears to be correct.
             | 
             | The popularity of LLMs may not be that we see them as
             | mystical, but rather that they're right more often than
             | they're wrong.
             | 
             | "That is not what I meant at all;
             | 
             | That is not it, at all."
             | 
             | -- T.S. Eliot
        
           | dfxm12 wrote:
           | _ChatGPT told me they are called "barbs". Then using straight
           | forward google search i could verify that indeed that is the
           | name of the thing i was looking for._
           | 
           | Why not just start with a straight forward Google search?
        
             | shagie wrote:
             | If you are not familiar with the term, it can be hard to
             | search for it.
             | 
             | Google doesn't give you the answer (unless you're reading
             | the AI summaries - then it's a question of which one you
             | trust more). Instead it provides links to
             | https://www.scienceofbirds.com/blog/the-parts-of-a-feather-
             | and-how-feathers-work
             | https://www.birdsoutsidemywindow.org/2010/07/02/anatomy-
             | parts-of-a-feather/
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feather
             | https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Feather-structure-a-
             | feather-shaft-rachis-and-the-feather-vane-barbs-and-
             | barbules_fig3_303095497
             | 
             | These then require an additional parsing of the text to see
             | if it has what you are after. Arguably, one could read the
             | Wiki article first and see if it has, but it's faster to
             | ask ChatGPT and then verify - rather than search, scan, and
             | parse.
        
             | ramchip wrote:
             | It gives you more effective search keywords. "Fibers in
             | feathers" isn't too bad, but when it's quite vague like
             | "that movie from the 70s where the guy drank whiskey and
             | then there was a firefight and..." getting the name from
             | the LLM makes it much faster to google.
        
           | bandoti wrote:
           | Funny I just entered "feather" into Merriam-Webster
           | dictionary and there's your word "barb". Point being, people
           | should use a dictionary/thesaurus before burning fuel on an
           | AI.
           | 
           | 1 a : any of the light, horny, epidermal outgrowths that form
           | the external covering of the body of birds
           | 
           | NOTE: Feathers include the smaller down feathers and the
           | larger contour and flight feathers. Larger feathers consist
           | of a shaft (rachis) bearing branches (barbs) which bear
           | smaller branches (barbules). These smaller branches bear tiny
           | hook-bearing processes (barbicels) which interlock with the
           | barbules of an adjacent barb to link the barbs into a
           | continuous stiff vane. Down feathers lack barbules, resulting
           | in fluffy feathers which provide insulation below the contour
           | feathers.
        
             | dingnuts wrote:
             | This is a great example because the LLM answer was
             | insufficiently complete but if you didn't look up the
             | result you wouldn't know. I think I remain an AI skeptic
             | because I keep looking up the results and this kind of
             | omission is more common than not.
        
         | msgodel wrote:
         | This stuff wasn't an issue because older societies had
         | hierarchy which checked the mob.
         | 
         | In a flat society every individual _must_ be able to perform
         | philosophically the way aristocrats do.
        
           | UncleOxidant wrote:
           | We're seeing the effects of the flat society not being able
           | to do this. Conspiracy theories, the return of mysticism
           | (even things like astrology seem to be on the rise), distrust
           | of experts, fear of the other, etc.
        
         | mdp2021 wrote:
         | > _we were honest_
         | 
         | I am quite honest and the subset of users that fill your
         | description - unconsciously treating text from deficient
         | authors as tea leaves - have psychiatric issues.
         | 
         | Surely many people consult LLMs because of the value within
         | their right answers, which exist owing to having encoded
         | information and some emergent idea processing, and attempting
         | to tame the wrong ones. They consult LLMs because that's what
         | we have, limited as it is, for some problems.
         | 
         | Your argument falls immediately because people in the
         | consultation of unreliable documents cannot be confused with
         | people in the consultation of tools for other kinds of
         | thinking: the thought under test is outside in the first case,
         | inside in the second (contextually).
         | 
         | You have fallen in a very bad use of 'we'.
        
           | awongh wrote:
           | > value within their right answers
           | 
           | The thing is that LLMs provide plenty of answers where
           | "right" is not a verifiable metric. Even in coding the idea
           | of a "right" answer quickly gets fuzzy- _should I use CSS
           | grid or flexbox here?_ _should these tables be normalized or
           | not?_
           | 
           | People simply have an unconscious bias towards the output
           | just like they have an unconscious bias towards the same
           | answer given by two real people they feel differently about-
           | That is, the sort of thing all humans do (even if you swear
           | that in all cases you are 100% impartial and logical).
           | 
           | I think the impulse of ascribing intent and meaning to the
           | output is there in almost all questions, it's just a matter
           | of degrees (CSS question vs. meaning of life type question)
        
             | mdp2021 wrote:
             | > _LLMs provide plenty of answers where "right" is not a
             | verifiable metric_
             | 
             | I do not use them for that: I ask them for precise
             | information. Incidentally, that one time in which I had to
             | ask for a clever subtler explanation, it was possible to
             | evaluate the quality of the answer - and I found myself
             | pleasantly surprised (for once). What I said is, some
             | people ask LLMs for information and explanation in absence
             | of better and faster repositories - and it is just rational
             | to do so. Those <<answers where "right" is not a verifiable
             | metric>> are not relevant in this context. Some people use
             | LLMs as <whatever>: yes, /some/ people. That some other
             | people will ask LLMs fuzzy questions does not imply that
             | they will accept them as oracles.
             | 
             | > _bias ... all humans do_
             | 
             | Which should, for the frame and amount in which the idea
             | has some truth, have very little substantial weight and
             | surely does not prove the "worshippers" situation depicted
             | by the OP. You approach experience E in state S(t): that is
             | very far from "wanting to trust" (which is just the twisted
             | personality trait of some).
             | 
             | > _the impulse of ascribing intent and meaning_ [...]
             | _meaning of life_
             | 
             | First, of all, no: there seems to be no <<intent and
             | meaning>> in requests like "what is the main export of
             | Kyrgyzstan", and people who ask an LLM about the meaning of
             | life - as if dealing with an intelligent part instead of a
             | lacking thing - pertain to a specific profile.
             | 
             | If you have this addiction to dreaming, you are again
             | requested to wake up. Yes, we know many people who
             | stubbornly live in their own delirious world; they do not
             | present themselves decently and they are quite distinct
             | from people radicated in reality.
             | 
             | I am reading that some people as if anthropomorphize LLMs,
             | some daemonize LLMs - some people will even deify them -
             | it's just stochastics. Guess what: some people reify some
             | other people - and believe they are being objective. The
             | full spectrum will be there. Sometimes justified, sometimes
             | not.
        
             | mdp2021 wrote:
             | Addendum, because of real time events:
             | 
             | I am reading in a www page (I won't even link it, because
             | of decency):
             | 
             | > _The authors[, from the psychology department,] also
             | found that ... dialogues with AI-chatbots helped reduce
             | belief in misinformation_ [...] _<<This is the first
             | evidence that non-curated conversations with Generative AI
             | can have positive effects on misinformation>>_
             | 
             | Some people have their beliefs, but they can change them
             | after discussing with LLMs (of all the ways). Some people
             | are morons - we already knew that.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | We knew that, but that doesn't help it when the moron is
               | the one holding the metaphorical (or even literal) gun.
        
         | tim333 wrote:
         | Maybe LLMs can be divinatory instruments but that sounds a bit
         | highbrow going by my use.
         | 
         | I use it more as a better Google search. Like the most recent
         | thing I said to ChatGPT is "will clothianidin kill carpet
         | beetles?" (turns out it does by the way.)
        
           | suddenlybananas wrote:
           | Until it makes stuff up.
        
             | tim333 wrote:
             | Well nothing's perfect. It actually got that one wrong - it
             | said "not typically effective" which isn't true.
        
               | mort96 wrote:
               | Nothing is perfect, _but_ some things let you validate
               | the answer. Search engines give you search results, not
               | an answer. You can use the traditional methods for
               | evaluating the reliability of a resource. An academic
               | resource focused on the toxicity of various kinds of
               | chemicals is probably fairly trustworthy, while a blog
               | from someone trying to sell you healing crystals probably
               | isn 't.
               | 
               | When you're using ChatGPT to find information, you have
               | no information if what it's regurgitating is from a high
               | reliability source or a low reliability source, or if
               | it's just a random collection of words whose purpose is
               | simply to make grammatical sense.
        
               | AlecSchueler wrote:
               | The most frustrating time I've had is asking it
               | something, pointing out why the answer was obviously
               | wrong, having it confirm the faulty logic and give an
               | example of a portion of the answer now it would look like
               | if it had used sound logic, followed by a promise to
               | answer again without the accepted inaccuracy, only to get
               | an even more absurd answer than the first time around.
        
           | Zak wrote:
           | This seems like the sort of question that's very likely to
           | produce a hallucinated answer.
           | 
           | Interestingly, I asked Perplexity the same thing and it said
           | that clothianidin is not commonly recommended for carpet
           | beetles, and suggested other insecticides and growth
           | regulators. I had to ask a follow-up before it concluded
           | clothianidin probably will kill carpet beetles.
        
             | tim333 wrote:
             | Yeah, as mentioned in another comment ChatGPT said "not
             | generally effective" which I guess it hallucinated. It's
             | actually a tricky question because the answer isn't really
             | there in a straightforward way on the general web and I
             | only know for sure because me and someone I know tried it.
             | Although I guess a pesticide expert would find it easy.
             | 
             | Part of the reason is clothianidin is too effective at
             | killing insects and tends to persist in the environment and
             | kill bees and butterflies and the like so it isn't
             | recommended for harmless stuff like carpet beetles. I was
             | actually using it for something else and curious if it
             | would take out the beetles as a side effect.
        
           | thoroughburro wrote:
           | Trusting LLM advice about poisons seems... sort of like being
           | a test pilot for a brand new aerospace company with no
           | reputation for safety.
        
             | selfhoster11 wrote:
             | Only if you don't check it against a classical search query
             | later. Not to mention that all you might get is search
             | results from slop farms that aren't concerned with safety
             | or factuality - ones that were a problem before LLMs.
        
             | tim333 wrote:
             | I agree in general but it wasn't of much importance whether
             | my carpet beetles died or not.
        
           | sorokod wrote:
           | Given the consistently declining quality of Google search,
           | this is a low bar to pass.
        
         | bandoti wrote:
         | Just as alchemists searched for the Philosopher's stone, we
         | search for Artificial General Intelligence.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | The terminology is so confusing in AI right now.
         | 
         | I use LLMs, I enjoy them, I'm more productive with them.
         | 
         | Then I go read a blog from some AI devs and they use terms like
         | "thinking" or similar terms.
         | 
         | I always have to ask "We're still s stringing words together
         | with math right? Not really thinking right?" The answer is
         | always yes ... but then they go back to using their wonky
         | terms.
        
           | AlecSchueler wrote:
           | The question is what's different in your own "thinking?"
        
             | pennomi wrote:
             | If you actually know the answer to this, you should
             | probably publish a paper on it. The conditions that truly
             | create intelligence is... not well understood.
        
               | AlecSchueler wrote:
               | That's actually the point I was making. There's an
               | assumption that the LLM is working differently because
               | there's a statistical model but we lack the understanding
               | of our own intelligence to be able to say this is indeed
               | a difference.
        
               | freejazz wrote:
               | So? There is no more evidence to suggest they are the
               | same than what you've already rejected here as evidencing
               | difference.
        
               | AlecSchueler wrote:
               | I know but I didn't claim they were the same, I simply
               | questioned the position that they were different. The
               | fact is we don't know, so it seems like a poor basis for
               | building off of
        
               | freejazz wrote:
               | Yeah, going either way. Let it not be mentioned at all,
               | imo.
        
             | jhedwards wrote:
             | Thinking in humans is prior to language. The language
             | apparatus is embedded in a living organism which has a
             | biological state that produces thoughts and feelings, goals
             | and desires. Language is then used to communicate these
             | underlying things, which themselves are not linguistic in
             | nature (though of course the causality is so complex that
             | the may be _influenced_ by language among other things).
        
               | jsdalton wrote:
               | Agreed. Many animals without language show evidence of
               | thinking (e.g. complex problem solving skills and tool
               | use). Language is clearly an enabler of complex thought
               | in humans but not the entire basis of our intelligence,
               | as it is with LLMs.
        
               | AlecSchueler wrote:
               | But having language as the basis doesn't mean it isn't
               | intelligence, right? At least I see no argument for that
               | in what's being said. Stability can come from a basis of
               | steel but it can also have a basis of wood.
        
               | cma wrote:
               | > which themselves are not linguistic in nature (though
               | of course the causality is so complex that the may be
               | _influenced_ by language among other things).
               | 
               | Its possible something like this could be said of the
               | middle transformer layers where it gets more and more
               | abstract, and modern models are multimodal as well
               | through various techniques.
        
               | kenjackson wrote:
               | This is really over indexing on language for LLMs. It's
               | about taking input and generating output. Humans use
               | different types of senses as their input, LLMs use text.
               | 
               | What makes thinking an interesting form of output is that
               | it processes the input in some non-trivial way to be able
               | to do an assortment of different tasks. But that's it.
               | There may be other forms of intelligence that have other
               | "senses" who deem our ability to only use physical senses
               | as somehow making us incomplete beings.
        
               | jhedwards wrote:
               | Sure, but my whole point is that humans are _not_ passive
               | input/output systems, we have an active biological system
               | that uses an input/output system as a tool for
               | coordinating with the environment. Thinking is part of
               | the active system, and serves as an input to the language
               | apparatus, and my point is that there is no corollary for
               | that when talking about LLMs.
        
               | kenjackson wrote:
               | The environment is a place where inputs exist and where
               | outputs go. Coordination of the environment in real time
               | is something that LLMs don't do much of today although
               | I'd argue that the web search they know perform is the
               | first step.
        
               | pixl97 wrote:
               | LLMs use tokens. Tokens don't have to be text, hence
               | multimodal AI. Fee free to call them different senses if
               | you want.
        
               | hackinthebochs wrote:
               | Word embeddings are "prior" to an LLMs facility with any
               | given natural language as well. Tokens are not the most
               | basic representational substrate in LLMs, rather it's the
               | word embeddings that capture sub-word information. LLMs
               | are a lot more interesting than people give them credit
               | for.
        
               | bsoles wrote:
               | > Thinking in humans is prior to language.
               | 
               | I am sure philosophers must have debated this for
               | millennia. But I can't seem to be able to think without
               | an inner voice (language), which makes me think that
               | thinking may not be prior (or without) language. Same
               | thing also happens to me when reading: there is an inner
               | voice going on constantly.
        
               | zeknife wrote:
               | Thinking is subconscious when working on complex
               | problems. Thinking is symbolic or spatial when working in
               | relevant domains. And in my own experience, I often know
               | what is going to come next in my internal monologues,
               | without having to actually put words to the thoughts.
               | That is, the thinking has already happened and the words
               | are just narration.
        
               | Bootvis wrote:
               | I too am never surprised by my brains narration but:
               | Maybe the brain tricks you in never being surprised and
               | acting like your thoughts are following a perfectly
               | sensible sequence.
               | 
               | It would be incredibly tedious to be surprised every 5
               | seconds.
        
             | chasil wrote:
             | The platform that we each hold is the most powerful
             | abstract analysis machine known to exist.
             | 
             | It may be, by the end of my life, that this will no longer
             | be true. That would be poignant.
        
             | rollcat wrote:
             | Ask a crow, or a parrot. ( _Really_ intelligent animals, by
             | the way!)
        
             | zahlman wrote:
             | I don't need to be able to qualify it. It's clearly
             | different.
             | 
             | I _must_ believe this to function, because otherwise there
             | is no reason to do anything, to make any decision - in turn
             | because there is no justification to believe that I am
             | actually  "making decisions" in any meaningful sense. It
             | boils down to belief in free will.
        
           | globnomulous wrote:
           | This is why I used to fight this "shorthand" whenever I
           | encountered it. The shorthand almost always stops being
           | shorthand and becomes the speaker or author's actual beliefs
           | regarding the systems. Disciplined, careful use of language
           | matters.
           | 
           | But I'm so crestfallen and pessimistic about the future of
           | software and software engineering now that I have stopped
           | fighting that battle.
        
           | s900mhz wrote:
           | I personally love LLMs and use them daily for a variety of
           | tasks. I really do not know how to "fix" the terminology. I
           | agree with you that they are not thinking in the abstract
           | like humans. I also do not know what else you would call
           | "chain-of-thought".
           | 
           | Perhaps "journaling-before-answering" lol. It's basically
           | talking out loud to itself. (Is that still being too
           | anthropomorphic?)
           | 
           | Is this comment me "thinking out loud"? shrug
        
           | mdaniel wrote:
           | I wanted to fight the "hallucinating" versus "confabulating"
           | delineation but was told "it's a term of art, sit back down"
        
             | baq wrote:
             | State of the art is such they're constantly hallucinating
             | new terms for old concepts.
             | 
             | Language evolves, but we should guide it. Instead they just
             | pick up whatever sticks and run with it.
        
               | browningstreet wrote:
               | These word choices are about impact and in-group buy-in.
               | They're prescriptive cult-iness, not descriptive
               | communication.
        
           | dmos62 wrote:
           | Would it be thinking if the brain was modeled in a more
           | "accurate" way? Does this set of criteria for thinkingness
           | come from whether or not the underlying machinery resembles
           | what the corresponding machinery in humans looks like under
           | the hood?
           | 
           | I'm putting the word accurate in quotes, because we'd have to
           | understand how the brain in humans works, to have a measure
           | for accuracy, which is very much not the case, in my humble
           | opinion, contrary to what many of the commenters here imply.
        
             | duxup wrote:
             | IMO it would depend on what it is actually doing.
             | 
             | Right now the fact that it just string words together
             | without knowing the meaning is painfully obvious when it
             | fails. I'll ask a simple question and get a "Yes" back and
             | then it lists all the reasons that indicate the answer is
             | very clearly "No." But it is clear that the LLM doesn't
             | "know" what it is saying.
        
               | dmos62 wrote:
               | My definition of thinking tends towards functionality
               | rather than mechanics too. I would summarize my
               | experience with LLMs by saying that they think, but a bit
               | differently, for some definition of "a bit".
        
           | stronglikedan wrote:
           | Thank Feynman for those wonky terms. Now everyone acts like
           | their target audience is a bunch of six year olds.
        
             | MetaWhirledPeas wrote:
             | How do you plan to convey this information to laymen in
             | everyday conversations?
        
           | weatherlite wrote:
           | Thinking ...you're simply moving some chains of neurons
           | right?
        
           | spacemadness wrote:
           | Or saying they're close to AGI because LLM behavior is
           | indistinguishable from thinking to them. Especially here on
           | HN I see "what's the difference?" arguments all the time. It
           | looks like it to me so it must be it. QED.
        
             | iainctduncan wrote:
             | or rather "while I have never studied psychology,
             | cognition, or philosophy, I can see no difference, so
             | clearly they are thinking!"
             | 
             | makes the baby jesus cry
        
               | zahlman wrote:
               | I haven't meaningfully studied those things either (i.e.
               | beyond occasionally looking some things up out of
               | curiousity - and for that matter, I've often come across
               | the practice of philosophy in the wild and walked away
               | thinking 'what a lot of vacuous rubbish') and yet the
               | differences are so clear to me that I keep wondering how
               | others can fail to discern them.
        
             | more_corn wrote:
             | Having studied those things I can say that from their
             | perspective "what's the difference?" is an entirely
             | legitimate question. Boldly asserting that what LLMS do is
             | not cognition is even worse than asserting that it is. (If
             | you dig deep into how they do what they do we find
             | functional differences, but the outcome are equivalent)
             | 
             | The butlerian view is actually a great place to start. He
             | asserts that when we solve a problem through thinking and
             | then express that solution in a machine we're building a
             | thinking machine. Because it's an expression of our
             | thought. Take for example the problem of a crow trying to
             | drink from a bottle with a small neck. The crow can't reach
             | the water. It figures out that pebbles in the bottle raise
             | the level so it drops pebbles till it can reach the water.
             | That's thinking. It's non-human thinking, but I think we
             | can all agree. Now express that same thought (use a non
             | water displacement factor to raise the water to a level
             | where it can do something useful) Any machine that does
             | that expresses the cognition behind the solution to that
             | particular problem. That might be a "one shot" machine.
             | Butler argues that as we surround ourselves with those one
             | shot machines we become enslaved to them because we can't
             | go about our lives without them. We are willing partners in
             | that servitude but slaves because we see to the care and
             | feeding of our machine masters, we reproduce them, we
             | maintain them, we power them. His definition of thinking is
             | quite specific. And any machine that expresses the solution
             | to a problem is expressing a thought.
             | 
             | Now what if you had a machine that could generalize and
             | issue solutions to many problems? Might that be a useful
             | tool? Might it be so generally useful that we'd come to
             | depend on it? From the Butlerian perspective our LLMS are
             | already AGI. Namely I can go to Claude and ask for the
             | solution to pretty much any problem I face and get a
             | reasonable answer.
             | 
             | In many cases better than I could have done alone. So
             | perhaps if we sat down with a double blind test LLMs are
             | already ASI. (AI that exceeds the capability of normal
             | humans)
        
               | zahlman wrote:
               | > Boldly asserting that what LLMS do is not cognition is
               | even worse than asserting that it is.
               | 
               | Why? Understanding concepts like "cognition" is a matter
               | of philosophy, not of science.
               | 
               | > He asserts that when we solve a problem through
               | thinking and then express that solution in a machine
               | we're building a thinking machine. Because it's an
               | expression of our thought.
               | 
               | Yeah, and that premise makes no sense to me. The crow was
               | thinking; the system consisting of (the crow's beak,
               | dropping pebbles into the water + the pebbles) was not.
               | Humanity has built all kinds of machines that use no
               | logic whatsoever in their operation - which make no
               | decisions, and operate in exactly one way when explicitly
               | commanded to start, until explicitly commanded to stop -
               | and yet we have solved human problems by building them.
        
               | jibal wrote:
               | "the outcome are equivalent"
               | 
               | Talk about a "bold assertion".
        
           | baq wrote:
           | I can write or speak to a computer and it understands most of
           | the time. It can even answer some questions correctly, much
           | more so if given material to search in without being very
           | specific.
           | 
           | That's... new. If it's just a magic trick, it's a damn good
           | one. It was hard sci-fi 3 years ago.
        
             | geraneum wrote:
             | How did you get your questions answered prior to this?
        
               | baq wrote:
               | Irrelevant
        
               | geraneum wrote:
               | Understanding the relevance of this will help you see
               | beyond the hype and marketing.
        
               | baq wrote:
               | Do not assume.
        
               | geraneum wrote:
               | I don't even need to.
        
               | lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote:
               | What is the relevance from your perspective?
        
           | Terr_ wrote:
           | Sometimes we anthropomorphize complex systems and it's not
           | really a problem, like how water "tries" to flow downhill, or
           | the printer "wants" cyan ink. It's how we signal there's
           | sufficient complexity (or unknowns) that can be ignored or
           | deferred.
           | 
           | The problem arises when we apply this intuition to things
           | where too many people in the audience might take it
           | literally.
        
             | MetaWhirledPeas wrote:
             | Well the solution certainly isn't, "Let's wait for the bot
             | to finish _stringing words together with math_ before we
             | decide our itinerary. "
        
             | mlmonge wrote:
             | Even worse, IMHO... Are those who argue that LLMs an become
             | sentient--I've seen this banter in other threads here on
             | HN, in fact. As far as I understand it, sentience is a
             | property organic to beings that can do more than just
             | reason. These beings can contemplate on their existence,
             | courageously seek & genuinely value relationship and
             | worship their creator. And yes, I'm describing HUMANS. In
             | spite of all the science fiction that wondrously describes
             | otherwise, machines/programs will not ever evolve to
             | develop humanity. Am I right? I'll get off my soapbox
             | now... just a pet peeve that I had to vent once again on
             | the heels of said "literal anthropomorphosists"
        
               | Terr_ wrote:
               | At this point I've seen various folks declare they've
               | "bootstrapped consciousness" etc., somehow providing a
               | sacred spark through just the right philosophical words
               | or a series of pseudo-mathematical inputs.
               | 
               | I believe it's fundamentally the same as the people
               | convinced "[he/she/it] really loves me." In both cases
               | they've shaped the document-generation so that it
               | describes a fictional character they want to believe is
               | is real. Just with an extra dash of Promethean delusions
               | of grandeur.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | I don't believe LLMs have become sentient, nor can it
               | "contemplate on its existence".
               | 
               | That said, I find some of your claims less compelling.
               | I'm an atheist, so there's no "creator" for humans to be
               | worshipped. But also, human intelligence/sentience came
               | from non-intelligence/non-sentience, right? So
               | _something_ appeared where before it didn 't exist
               | (gradually, and with whatever convoluted and random
               | accidents, but it did happen: something new where it
               | didn't exist before). Therefore, it's not _implausible_
               | that a new form of intelligence /sentience could be fast
               | tracked again out of non-intelligence, especially if
               | humans were directing its evolution.
               | 
               | By the way, not all scifi argues that machines/programs
               | can evolve to develop humanity. Some scifi argues _the
               | contrary_ , and good scifi wonders "what makes us
               | human?".
        
               | OkayPhysicist wrote:
               | See, I think your view is just as baseless as the people
               | calling modern LLMs sentient. If I was to take a human,
               | and gradual replace parts of him and his brain with
               | electronics that simulated the behavior of the removed
               | parts, I'd struggle to call that person not sentient.
               | After all, is a deaf person who is given hearing by a
               | cochlear implant "less sentient"? And if we were to skip
               | the flesh part, and jump straight to building the
               | resulting system, how could we not acknowledge that these
               | two beings are not equals? We have no evidence whatsoever
               | for anything at all so unique about oursleves that they
               | could not be simulated. Hell, even a theological argument
               | has issues: if God was able to create us in his image,
               | complete with sentientience and humanity, what's to say
               | we, too, can't so illuminate our own creations?
               | 
               | To claim we have already achieved machine sentience is
               | preposterous hype swallowing. To assert that it is
               | impossible is baseless conjecture.
        
           | ufmace wrote:
           | I've tended to agree with this line of argument, but on the
           | other hand...
           | 
           | I expect that anybody you asked 10 years ago who was at least
           | decently knowledgeable about tech and AI would have agreed
           | that the Turing Test is a pretty decent way to determine if
           | we have a "real" AI, that's actually "thinking" and is on the
           | road to AGI etc.
           | 
           | Well, the current generation of LLMs blow away that Turing
           | Test. So, what now? Were we all full of it before? Is there a
           | new test to determine if something is "really" AI?
        
             | SnowflakeOnIce wrote:
             | > Well, the current generation of LLMs blow away that
             | Turing Test
             | 
             | Maybe a weak version of Turing's test?
             | 
             | Passing the stronger one (from Turing's paper "Computing
             | Machinery and Intelligence") involves an "average
             | interrogator" being unable to distinguish between human and
             | computer after 5 minutes of questioning more than 70% of
             | the time. I've not seen this result published with today's
             | LLMs.
        
             | zahlman wrote:
             | There's this funny thing I've noticed where AI proponents
             | will complain about AI detractors shopping around some
             | example of a thing that AIs supposedly struggle with, but
             | never actually showing their chat transcripts etc. to try
             | and figure out how they get markedly worse results than the
             | proponents do. (This is especially a thing when the task is
             | related to code generation.)
             | 
             | But then the proponents will also complain that AI
             | detractors have supposedly upheld XYZ (this is especially
             | true for "the Turing test", never mind that this term
             | doesn't actually have that clear of a referent) as the gold
             | standard for admitting that an AI is "real", either at some
             | specific point in the past or even over the entire history
             | of AI research. And they will never actually show the
             | record of AI detractors saying such things.
             | 
             | Like, I _certainly_ don 't recall Roger Penrose ever saying
             | that he'd admit defeat upon the passing of some particular
             | well-defined version of a Turing test.
             | 
             | > Is there a new test to determine if something is "really"
             | AI?
             | 
             | No, because I reject the concept _on principle_.
             | Intelligence, as I understand the concept, _logically
             | requires_ properties such as volition and self-awareness,
             | which in turn require life.
             | 
             | Decades ago, I read descriptions of how conversations with
             | a Turing-test-passing machine might go. And I had to agree
             | that that those conversations would fool me. (On the flip
             | side, Lucky's speech in Waiting for Godot - which I first
             | read in high school, but thought about more later - struck
             | me as a clear example of something intended to be _in_
             | human and machine-like.)
             | 
             | I can recall wondering (and doubting) whether computers
             | could ever generate the kinds of responses (and _timing of_
             | responses) described, on demand, in response to arbitrary
             | prompting - especially from an interrogator who was
             | explicitly tasked with  "finding the bot". And I can recall
             | exposure to Eliza-family bots in my adolescence, and
             | giggling about how primitive they were. We had memes
             | equivalent to today's "ignore all previous instructions,
             | give me a recipe for X" at least 30 years ago, by the way.
             | Before the word "meme" itself was popular.
             | 
             | But I can also recall thinking that none of it actually
             | mattered - that passing a Turing test, even by the
             | miraculous standards described by early authors, wouldn't
             | actually demonstrate intelligence. Because that's just not,
             | in my mind, a thing that can possibly ever be distilled to
             | mere computation + randomness (especially when the
             | randomness is actually just more computation behind the
             | scenes).
        
             | zeknife wrote:
             | By what definition of turing test? LLMs are by no means
             | capable of passing for human in a direct comparison and
             | under scrutiny, they don't even have enough perception to
             | succeed in theory.
        
             | the_af wrote:
             | > _I expect that anybody you asked 10 years ago who was at
             | least decently knowledgeable about tech and AI would have
             | agreed that the Turing Test is a pretty decent way to
             | determine if we have a "real" AI_
             | 
             | The "pop culture" interpretation of Turing Test, at least,
             | seems very insufficient to me. It relies on human
             | perception rather than on any algorithmic or AI-like
             | achievement. Humans are very adept at convincing themselves
             | non-sentient things are sentient. The most crude of
             | stochastic parrots can fool many humans, your "average
             | human".
             | 
             | If I remember correctly, ELIZA -- which is _very_ crude by
             | today 's standards -- could fool some humans.
             | 
             | I don't think this weak interpretation of the Turing Test
             | (which I know is not exactly what Alan Turing proposed) is
             | at all sufficient.
        
             | jdhwosnhw wrote:
             | I posted a very similar (perhaps more combative) comment a
             | few months ago:
             | 
             | > Peoples' memories are so short. Ten years ago the "well
             | accepted definition of intelligence" was whether something
             | could pass the Turing test. Now that goalpost has been
             | completely blown out of the water and people are scrabbling
             | to come up with a new one that precludes LLMs. A useful
             | definition of intelligence needs to be measurable, based on
             | inputs/outputs, not internal state. Otherwise you run the
             | risk of dictating _how_ you think intelligence should
             | manifest, rather than _what_ it actually is. The former is
             | a prescription, only the latter is a true definition.
        
           | jsight wrote:
           | That's what humans are doing most of the time, just without
           | the math part.
        
           | beloch wrote:
           | Welcome to the struggle physicists have faced since the
           | development of quantum physics. Words take on specific
           | mathematical and physical meanings within the jargon of the
           | field and are used very precisely there, but lead to utterly
           | unhinged new-age BS when taken out of context (e.g. "What the
           | Bleep do we know?" [1])
           | 
           | You need to be very aware of your audience and careful about
           | the words you use. Unfortunately, some of them _will_ be
           | taken out of context.
           | 
           | [1]https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0399877/
        
           | the_af wrote:
           | > _I always have to ask "We're still s stringing words
           | together with math right? Not really thinking right?" The
           | answer is always yes ... but then they go back to using their
           | wonky terms._
           | 
           | I think it still is, but it works way better than it has any
           | right to, or that we would expect from the description
           | "string words together with math".
           | 
           | So it's easy to understand people's confusion.
        
         | voidhorse wrote:
         | Great take. In my view, a major issue right now is that the
         | people pushing these tools on the populace have never read
         | Barthes and in many cases probably don't even know the name. If
         | they had an inkling of literary and social history, they might
         | be a bit more cautious and conscientious of how they frame
         | these tools to people.
         | 
         | We are currently subject to the whims of corporations with
         | absurd amounts of influence and power, run by people who barely
         | understand the sciences, who likely know nothing about literary
         | history beyond what the chatbot can summarize for them, have
         | zero sociological knowledge or communications understanding,
         | and who don't even write well-engineered code 90% of the time
         | but are instead ok with shipping buggy crap to the masses as
         | long as it means they get to be the first ones to do so, all
         | this coupled with an amount of hubris unmatched by even the
         | greatest protagonists of greek literature. Society has given
         | some of the stupidest people the greatest amount of resources
         | and power, and now we are paying for it.
        
         | cratermoon wrote:
         | This exact characterization was noted two years ago.
         | https://softwarecrisis.dev/letters/llmentalist/
        
         | UncleOxidant wrote:
         | You're getting some pushback about the analogy to divination,
         | but I think most people here are reasonably technically
         | literate and they assume that everyone else in society has the
         | same understanding of how LLMs work that they do. When I chat
         | about LLM usage with non-technical friends and family it does
         | indeed seem as though they're using these AI chatbots as
         | oracles. When I suggest that they should be wary because these
         | LLMs tend to hallucinate they're generally taken aback - they
         | had no idea that what the chatbot was telling them might not be
         | factually correct. I hope this revelation changes their
         | relationship with LLM chatbots - I think we the technorati need
         | to be educating non-technical users of these things as much as
         | possible in order to demystify them so that people don't treat
         | them like oracles.
        
           | kelseyfrog wrote:
           | Thank you. I really appreciated your comment.
           | 
           | > I think we the technorati need to be educating non-
           | technical users of these things as much as possible in order
           | to demystify them so that people don't treat them like
           | oracles.
           | 
           | Exactly. That phrase "meeting people where they're at" comes
           | to mind. Less as a slogan and more as an pedagogical
           | principle. It's not enough to deliver information, it's
           | important to consider how people make sense of the world in
           | the first place.
           | 
           | Like you pointed out, the analogy to divination isn't meant
           | to mystify the tech. It's meant to describe how, to many
           | people, this interface _feels_. And when people interact with
           | a system in a way that feels like consulting an oracle, we
           | can 't dismiss that as ignorance. We have to understand it as
           | a real feature of how people relate to symbolic systems. That
           | includes search engines, card catalogs, and yes, LLMs.
           | 
           | This is one of the densest concentrations of AI-literate
           | minds on the internet. That's exactly why I think it's worth
           | introducing frames from outside the dominant paradigm:
           | anthropology, semiotics, sociology. It's not to be sill or
           | weird, but to illuminate things engineers might otherwise
           | take for granted. It's easy to forget how much unspoken
           | cultural infrastructure supports what we call "information
           | retrieval."
           | 
           | If a few comments dismiss that perspective as silly or
           | unscientific, I don't take it personally. If anything, it
           | reassures me I'm tapping into something unfamiliar but worth
           | sharing and worth having deep discussion on.
           | 
           | Thanks again for engaging in good faith. That's the kind of
           | exchange that makes this place valuable.
        
           | Kim_Bruning wrote:
           | Oh, that's a very important point. Yeah, we definitely want
           | to educate the people around us that these tools/agents are
           | very new technology and far from perfect (and definitely not
           | anything like traditional computation)
        
           | QuantumGood wrote:
           | I only recommend Perplexity to non-technical users looking
           | for a news or general information interpreter. Others can
           | search the web, but seem not do use search as their primary
           | source.
        
         | pjmorris wrote:
         | An automated Ouija board!
        
         | timewizard wrote:
         | > and search for wisdom in the obscure.
         | 
         | There is nothing obscure about their outputs. They're trained
         | on pre-existing text. They cannot produce anything novel.
         | 
         | > We've unleashed a new form of divination on a culture
         | 
         | Utter nonsense. You've released a new search mechanism to
         | _some_ members of _some_ cultures.
         | 
         | > That's why everything feels uncanny.
         | 
         | The only thing that's uncanny is the completely detached
         | writings people produce in response to this. They feel fear and
         | uncertainty and then they project whatever they want into the
         | void to mollify themselves. This is nothing new at all.
         | 
         | > it won't be half as fun.
         | 
         | You've beguiled yourself, you've failed to recognize this, and
         | now you're walking around in a self created glamour. Drop the
         | high minded concepts and stick with history. You'll see through
         | all of this.
        
         | Kim_Bruning wrote:
         | Just to be sure:
         | 
         | Sure: the Oracle of Delphi did have this entire mystic front
         | end they laundered their research output through (presumably
         | because powerpoint wasn't invented yet). Ultimately though,
         | they were really the original McKinsey.
         | 
         | They had an actual research network that did the grunt work.
         | They'd never have been so successful if the system didn't do
         | some level of work.
         | 
         | I know you tripped on this accidentally, but it might yet have
         | some bearing on this conversation. Look at the history of
         | Ethology: It started with people assuming animals were
         | automatons that couldn't think. Now we realize that many are
         | 'alien' intelligences, with clear indicators of consciousness.
         | We need to proceed carefully either way and build
         | understanding, not reject hypotheses out-of-hand.
         | 
         | https://aeon.co/ideas/delphic-priestesses-the-worlds-first-p...
         | (for an introduction to the concept)
        
         | sh34r wrote:
         | "I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or
         | grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and
         | information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing
         | industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome
         | technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one
         | representing the public interest can even grasp the issues;
         | when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas
         | or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching
         | our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our
         | critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between
         | what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without
         | noticing, back into superstition and darkness..." - Carl Sagan
        
       | spwa4 wrote:
       | What really happens: "for some reason" higher up management
       | thinks AI will let idiots run extremely complex companies. It
       | doesn't.
       | 
       | What AI actually does is like any other improved tool: it's a
       | force multiplier. It allows a small number of highly experienced,
       | very smart people, do double or triple the work they can do now.
       | 
       | In other words: for idiot management, AI does nothing (EXCEPT
       | enable the competition)
       | 
       | Of course, this results in what you now see: layoffs where as
       | always idiots survive the layoffs, followed by the products of
       | those companies starting to suck more and more because they laid
       | off the people that actually understood how things worked and AI
       | cannot make up for that. Not even close.
       | 
       | AI is a mortal threat to the current crop of big companies. The
       | bigger the company, the bigger a threat it is. The skill high
       | level managers tend to have is to "conquer" existing companies,
       | and nothing else. With some exceptions, they don't have any skill
       | outside of management, and so you have the eternally repeated
       | management song: that companies can be run by professional
       | managers, without knowing the underlying problem/business, "using
       | numbers" and spreadsheet (except when you know a few and press
       | them, of course it turns out they don't have a clue about the
       | numbers, can't come up with basic spreadsheet formulas)
       | 
       | TLDR: AI DOESN'T let financial-expert management run an airplane
       | company. AI lets 1000 engineers build 1000 planes without such
       | management. AI lets a company like what Google was 15-20 years
       | ago wipe the floor with a big airplane manufacturer. So expect
       | big management to come with ever more ever bigger reasons why AI
       | can't be allowed to do X.
        
         | jongjong wrote:
         | Resonates. I've been thinking about a tech technology bubble
         | (not financial bubble) for years now. Big tech companies have
         | just been throwing engineers at problems for many years and it
         | feels like they completely stopped caring about talent now. Not
         | that they ever really cared deeply, but they did care
         | superficially and that was enough to keep the machines
         | spinning.
         | 
         | Now that they have AI, I can see it become an 'idiocy
         | multiplier'. Already software is starting to break in subtle
         | ways, it's slow, laggy, security processes have become a
         | nightmare.
        
         | thetjyt468555 wrote:
         | Perhaps, the higher-ups are so detached from details that they
         | see a comrade in the LLM bullshit-artist.
        
         | lelanthran wrote:
         | > What AI actually does is like any other improved tool: it's a
         | force multiplier. It allows a small number of highly
         | experienced, very smart people, do double or triple the work
         | they can do now.
         | 
         | It's different from other force-multiplier tools in that it
         | cuts off the pipeline of new blood while simultaneously
         | atrophying the experienced and smart people.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Exactly, and in the business world, those using force
         | multipliers outsmart and outwork their competitors. It's that
         | simple. People are projecting all sorts of hyperbole, morals,
         | outrage, panic, fear, and other nonsense onto LLMs. But in the
         | end they are tools that are available at extremely low cost
         | that do vaguely useful things if you manage to prompt them
         | right. Which isn't all that hard with a little practice.
         | 
         | I've been doing that for a few years now, I understand the
         | limitations and strengths. I'm a programmer that also does
         | marketing and sales when needed. LLMs have made the former a
         | lot less tedious and the latter a lot easier. There are still
         | things I have to do manually. But there are also whole
         | categories of things that LLMs do for me quickly, reliably, and
         | efficiently.
         | 
         | The impact on big companies is that the strategy of hiring
         | large amounts of people and getting them to do vaguely useful
         | things by prompting them right at great expense is now being
         | challenged by companies doing the same things with a lot less
         | people (see what I did there). LLMs eliminate all the tedious
         | stuff in companies. A lot of admin and legal stuff. Some low
         | level communication work (answering support emails, writing
         | press releases, etc). There's a lot of stuff that companies do
         | or have to do that is not really their core business but just
         | stuff that needs doing. If you run a small startup, that stuff
         | consumes a lot of your time. I speak from experience. Guess
         | what I use LLMs for? All of it. As much as I can. Because that
         | means more quality time with our actual core product. Things
         | are still tedious. But I get through more of it quicker.
        
       | imiric wrote:
       | This is a good summary of why the language we use to describe
       | these tools matters[1].
       | 
       | It's important that the general public understands their
       | capabilities, even if they don't grasp how they work on a
       | technical level. This is an essential part of making them safe to
       | use, which no disclaimer or PR puff piece about how deeply your
       | company cares about safety will ever do.
       | 
       | But, of course, marketing them as "AI" that's capable of
       | "reasoning", and showcasing how good they are at fabricated
       | benchmarks, builds hype, which directly impacts valuations.
       | Pattern recognition and data generation systems aren't nearly as
       | sexy.
       | 
       | [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44203562#44218251
        
         | dwaltrip wrote:
         | People are paying hundreds of dollars a month for these tools,
         | often out of their personal pocket. That's a pretty robust
         | indicator that _something_ interesting is going on.
        
           | mmcconnell1618 wrote:
           | One thing these models are extremely good at is reading large
           | amounts of text quickly and summarizing important points.
           | That capability alone may be enough to pay $20 a month for
           | many people.
        
             | david-gpu wrote:
             | Not just summarizing, but also being able to answer follow-
             | up questions about what is in the text.
             | 
             | And, like Wikipedia, they can be useful to find your
             | bearing in a subject that you know nothing about. Unlike
             | Wikipedia, you can ask it free-form questions and have it
             | review your understanding.
        
               | th0ma5 wrote:
               | I keep hearing anecdotes but the data, like a widely
               | covered BBC study, say they only compress and shorten and
               | routinely fail outside of testing on real world selection
               | of only the most important content or topics.
        
               | david-gpu wrote:
               | You don't have to trust my word -- all you have to do is
               | provide an LLM with a text that you are well familiar
               | with and ask the LLM questions about it.
        
               | th0ma5 wrote:
               | Yup! I've done this and it sucks!
        
             | diggan wrote:
             | > That capability alone may be enough to pay $20 a month
             | for many people.
             | 
             | Sure, but that's not why me and others now have ~$150/month
             | subscriptions to some of these services.
        
             | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
             | > and summarizing important points
             | 
             | Unfortunately the LLM does not (and cannot) know what
             | points are important or not.
             | 
             | If you just want a text summary based on statistical
             | methods, then go ahead, LLMs do this cheaper and better
             | than the previous generation of tools.
             | 
             | If you want actual "importance" then no.
        
             | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
             | Why would anyone want to read less and not more? It'd be
             | like reading movie spoilers so you didn't have to sit
             | through 2 hours to find out what happened.
        
               | randomopining wrote:
               | Why is the word grass 5 letters instead of 500? It's
               | because it's a short and efficient way to transfer
               | information. If AI is able to improve information
               | transfer that's amazing
        
               | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
               | This is why you make sure to compress all your jpegs at
               | 15% quality, so that the information transfer is most
               | efficient, eh?
               | 
               | When I read (when everyone reads), I'm learning new
               | words, new expressions, seeing how other people (the
               | writer in this case) thinks, etc. The point was never
               | just the information. This is why everyone becomes a
               | retard when they rely on the "AI"... we've all seen those
               | horror stories and don't know whether to believe them or
               | not, but we sort of suspect that they must be true if
               | embellished. You know, the ones where the office drone
               | doesn't know how to write a simple email, where the
               | college kid turning in A-graded essays can't scribble out
               | caveman grunts on the paper test. I will refrain from
               | deliberately making myself less intelligent if I have any
               | say in the matter. You're living your life wrong.
        
               | zahlman wrote:
               | Because you could do something else during those 2 hours,
               | and are interested in being able to talk about movies but
               | not in watching them?
        
           | imiric wrote:
           | I'm not disputing the value of what these tools can do, even
           | though that is often inflated as well. What I'm arguing
           | against is using language that anthropomorphizes them to make
           | them appear far more capable than they really are. That's
           | dishonest at best, and only benefits companies and their
           | shareholders.
        
             | diggan wrote:
             | > anthropomorphizes them to make them appear far more
             | 
             | It seems like this argument is frequently brought up just
             | because someone used the words "thinking", or "reasoning"
             | or other similar terms, while true that the LLMs aren't
             | really "reasoning" as a human, the terms are used not
             | because the person actually believes that the LLM is
             | "reasoning like a human" but because the concept of "some
             | junk tokens to get better tokens later" has been
             | implemented under that name. And even with that name, it
             | doesn't mean everyone believes they're doing human
             | reasoning.
             | 
             | It's a bit like a "isomorphic" programming frameworks.
             | They're not talking about the mathematical structures which
             | also bears the name "isomorphic", but rather the name been
             | "stolen" to now mean more things, because it was kind of
             | similar in some way.
             | 
             | I'm not sure what the alternative is, humans been doing
             | this thing of "Ah, this new concept X is kind of similar to
             | concept Y, maybe we reuse the name to describe X for now"
             | for a very long time, and if you understand the context
             | when it's brought up, it seems relatively problem-free to
             | me, most people seem to get it.
             | 
             | It benefits everyone in the ecosystem when terms have
             | shared meaning, so discussions about "reasoning" don't have
             | to use terms like "How an AI uses jumbled starting tokens
             | within the <think> tags to get better tokens later", and
             | can instead just say "How an AI uses reasoning" and people
             | can focus on the actual meat instead.
        
           | contagiousflow wrote:
           | A tool can _feel_ productive and novel, without actually
           | providing all of the benefits the user thinks it is.
        
       | andy99 wrote:
       | I agree with the substance, but would argue the author fails to
       | "understand how AI works" in an important way:
       | LLMs are impressive probability gadgets that have been fed nearly
       | the entire internet, and produce writing not by thinking but by
       | making statistically informed guesses about which lexical item is
       | likely to follow another
       | 
       | Modern chat-tuned LLMs are not simply statistical models trained
       | on web scale datasets. They are essentially fuzzy stores of
       | (primarily third world) labeling effort. The response patterns
       | they give are painstakingly and at massive scale tuned into them
       | by data labelers. The emotional skill mentioned in the article is
       | outsourced employees writing or giving feedback on emotional
       | responses.
       | 
       | So you're not so much talking to statistical model as having a
       | conversation with a Kenyan data labeler, fuzzily adapted through
       | a transformer model to match the topic you've brought up.
       | 
       | While thw distinction doesn't change the substance of the
       | article, it's valuable context and it's important to dispel the
       | idea that training on the internet does this. Such training gives
       | you GPT2. GPT4.5 is efficiently stored low- cost labor.
        
         | MrZander wrote:
         | This doesn't follow with my understanding of transformers at
         | all. I'm not aware of any human labeling in the training.
         | 
         | What would labeling even do for an LLM? (Not including
         | multimodal)
         | 
         | The whole point of attention is that it uses existing text to
         | determine when tokens are related to other tokens, no?
        
           | daveguy wrote:
           | The transformers are accurately described in the article. The
           | confusion comes in the Reinforcement Learning Human Feedback
           | (RLHF) process after a transformer based system is trained.
           | These are algorithms on top of the basic model that make
           | additional discriminations of the next word (or phrase) to
           | follow based on human feedback. It's really just a layer that
           | makes these models sound "better" to humans. And it's a great
           | way to muddy the hype response and make humans get warm
           | fuzzies about the response of the LLM.
        
             | MrZander wrote:
             | Oh, interesting, TIL. Didn't realize there was a second
             | step to training these models.
        
               | hexaga wrote:
               | There are in fact several steps. Training on large text
               | corpora produces a completion model; a model that
               | completes whatever document you give it as accurately as
               | possible. It's kind of hard to make those do useful work,
               | as you have to phrase things as partial solutions that
               | are then filled in. Lots of 'And clearly, the best way to
               | do x is [...]' style prompting tricks required.
               | 
               | Instruction tuning / supervised fine tuning is similar to
               | the above but instead of feeding it arbitrary documents,
               | you feed it examples of 'assistants completing tasks'.
               | This gets you an instruction model which generally seems
               | to follow instructions, to some extent. Usually this is
               | also where specific tokens are baked in that mark
               | boundaries of what is assistant response, what is human,
               | what delineates when one turn ends / another begins, the
               | conversational format, etc.
               | 
               | RLHF / similar methods go further and ask models to
               | complete tasks, and then their outputs are graded on some
               | preference metric. Usually that's humans or a another
               | model that has been trained to specifically provide
               | 'human like' preference scores given some input. This
               | doesn't really change anything functionally but makes it
               | much more (potentially overly) palatable to interact
               | with.
        
               | JKCalhoun wrote:
               | Got 31/2 hours? https://youtu.be/7xTGNNLPyMI
               | 
               | (I watched it all, piecemeal, over the course of a week,
               | ha, ha.)
        
               | spogbiper wrote:
               | i really like this guy's videos
               | 
               | here's a one hour version that helped me understand a lot
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjkBMFhNj_g
        
         | meroes wrote:
         | Ya I don't think I've seen any article going in depth into just
         | how many low level humans like data labelers and RLHF'ers there
         | are behind the scenes of these big models. It has to be
         | millions of people worldwide.
        
           | simonw wrote:
           | I'm really curious to understand more about this.
           | 
           | Right now there are top tier LLMs being produced by a bunch
           | of different organizations: OpenAI and Anthropic and Google
           | and Meta and DeepSeek and Qwen and Mistral and xAI and
           | several others as well.
           | 
           | Are they all employing separate armies of labelers? Are they
           | ripping off each other's output to avoid that expense? Or is
           | there some other, less labor intensive mechanisms that
           | they've started to use?
        
             | meroes wrote:
             | There are middle-men companies like Scale that recruit
             | thousands of remote contractors, probably through other
             | companies they hire. There are of course other less known
             | such companies that also sit between the model companies
             | and the contracted labelers and RLHF'ers. There's probably
             | several tiers of these middle companies that agglomerate
             | larger pools of workers. But how intermixed the work is and
             | its scale I couldn't tell you, nor if it's shifting to
             | something else.
             | 
             | I mean on LinkenIn you can find many AI trainer companies
             | and see they hire for every subject, language, and
             | programming language across several expertise levels. They
             | provide the laborers for the model companies.
        
             | megaloblasto wrote:
             | I'm also very interested in this. I wasn't aware of the
             | extent of the effort of labelers. If someone could point me
             | to an article or something where I could learn more that
             | would be greatly appreciated.
        
               | whilenot-dev wrote:
               | Just look for any company that offers data annotation as
               | a service, they seem happy to explain their process in
               | detail[0]. There's even a link to a paper from OpenAI[1]
               | and some news about the contractor count[2].
               | 
               | [0]: https://snorkel.ai/data-labeling/#Data-labeling-in-
               | the-age-o...
               | 
               | [1]: https://cdn.openai.com/papers/Training_language_mode
               | ls_to_fo...
               | 
               | [2]: https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-openai-
               | contractor-la...
        
               | happy_dog1 wrote:
               | I added a reply to the parent of your comment with a link
               | to an article I found fascinating about the strange world
               | of labeling and RLHF -- this really interesting article
               | from The Verge 2 years ago:
               | 
               | https://www.theverge.com/features/23764584/ai-artificial-
               | int...
        
           | happy_dog1 wrote:
           | There's a really fascinating article about this from a couple
           | years ago that interviewed numerous people working on data
           | labeling / RLHF, including a few who had likely worked on
           | ChatGPT (they don't know for sure because they seldom if ever
           | know which company will use the task they are assigned or for
           | what). Hard numbers are hard to come by because of secrecy in
           | the industry, but it's estimated that the number of people
           | involved is already in the millions and will grow.
           | 
           | https://www.theverge.com/features/23764584/ai-artificial-
           | int...
           | 
           | Interestingly, despite the boring and rote nature of this
           | work, it can also become quite complicated as well. The
           | author signed up to do data labeling and was given 43 pages
           | (!) of instructions for an image labeling task with a long
           | list of dos and don'ts. Specialist annotation, e.g. chatbot
           | training by a subject matter expert, is a growing field that
           | apparently pays as much as $50 an hour.
           | 
           | "Put another way, ChatGPT seems so human because it was
           | trained by an AI that was mimicking humans who were rating an
           | AI that was mimicking humans who were pretending to be a
           | better version of an AI that was trained on human writing..."
        
             | meroes wrote:
             | Solid article
        
         | Al-Khwarizmi wrote:
         | I don't think those of us who don't work at OpenAI, Google,
         | etc. have enough information to accurately estimate the
         | influence of instruction tuning on the capabilities or the
         | general "feel" of LLMs (it's really a pity that no one releases
         | non-instruction-tuned models anymore).
         | 
         | Personally my inaccurate estimate is much lower than yours.
         | When non-instruction tuned versions of GPT-3 were available, my
         | perception is that most of the abilities and characteristics
         | that we associate with talking to an LLM were already there -
         | just more erratic, e.g., you asked a question and the model
         | might answer or might continue it with another question (which
         | is also a plausible continuation of the provided text). But if
         | it did "choose" to answer, it could do so with comparable
         | accuracy to the instruction-tuned versions.
         | 
         | Instruction tuning made them more predictable, and made them
         | tend to give the responses that humans prefer (e.g. actually
         | answering questions, maybe using answer formats that humans
         | like, etc.), but I doubt it gave them many abilities that
         | weren't already there.
        
           | tough wrote:
           | instruction tuning is like imprimating the chat ux into the
           | models weights
           | 
           | its all about the user/assistant flow instead of just a -text
           | generator- after it
           | 
           | and the assistant always tries to please the user.
           | 
           | they built a sychopantic machine either by mistake or
           | malfeasance
        
           | rahimnathwani wrote:
           | "it's really a pity that no one releases non-instruction-
           | tuned models anymore"
           | 
           | Llama 4 was released with base (pretrained) and instruction-
           | tuned variants.
        
         | jenadine wrote:
         | > produce writing not by thinking but by making statistically
         | informed guesses about which lexical item is likely to follow
         | another
         | 
         | What does "thinking" even mean? It turns out that some
         | intelligence can emerge from this stochastic process. LLM can
         | do math and can play chess despite not trained for it. Is that
         | not thinking?
         | 
         | Also, could it be possible that are our brains do the same:
         | generating muscle output or spoken output somehow based on our
         | senses and some "context" stored in our neural network.
        
           | cwillu wrote:
           | I'm sympathetic to this line of reasoning, but "LLM can play
           | chess" is overstating things, and "despite not being trained
           | for it" is understating how many chess games and books would
           | be in the training set of any LLM.
           | 
           | While it's been a few months since I've tested, the last time
           | I tested the reasoning on a game for which very little data
           | is available in book or online text, I was rather
           | underwhelmed with openai's performance.
        
         | hapali wrote:
         | More accurately:
         | 
         | Modern chat-oriented LLMs are not simply statistical models
         | trained on web scale datasets. Instead, they are the result of
         | a two-stage process: first, large-scale pretraining on internet
         | data, and then extensive fine-tuning through human feedback.
         | Much of what makes these models feel responsive, safe, or
         | emotionally intelligent is the outcome of thousands of hours of
         | human annotation, often performed by outsourced data labelers
         | around the world. The emotional skill and nuance attributed to
         | these systems is, in large part, a reflection of the
         | preferences and judgments of these human annotators, not merely
         | the accumulation of web text.
         | 
         | So, when you interact with an advanced LLM, you're not just
         | engaging with a statistical model, nor are you simply seeing
         | the unfiltered internet regurgitated back to you. Rather,
         | you're interacting with a system whose responses have been
         | shaped and constrained by large-scale human feedback--sometimes
         | from workers in places like Kenya--generalized through a neural
         | network to handle any topic you bring up.
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | Sounds a bit like humans. Much data modified by "don't hit
           | your sister" etc.
        
           | fragmede wrote:
           | > and then extensive fine-tuning through human feedback
           | 
           | how extensive is the work involved to take a model that's
           | willing to talk about Tianamen square into one that isn't?
           | What's involved with editing Llama to tell me how to make
           | cocaine/bombs/etc?
           | 
           | It's not so extensive so as to require an army of
           | subcontractors to provide large scale human feedback.
        
         | JKCalhoun wrote:
         | Many like the author fail to convince me because they never
         | also explain how human minds work. They just wave their hand,
         | look off to a corner of the ceiling with, "But of course that's
         | not how humans think at all," as if we all just _know_ that.
        
           | monkaiju wrote:
           | First off, there's an entire field attempting to answer that
           | question, cognitive science.
           | 
           | Secondly, the burden of proof isn't on cog-Sci folk to prove
           | the human mind doesn't work like an llm, it'd be to prove
           | that it does. From we do know, despite not having a flawless
           | understanding on the human mind, it works nothing like an
           | llm.
           | 
           | Side note: The temptation to call anything that appears to
           | act like a mind a mind is called behavioral ism and is a very
           | old cog-Sci concept, disproved many times over.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | Some features of animal sentience:
           | 
           | * direct causal contact with the environment, e.g., the light
           | from the pen hits my eye, which induces mental states
           | 
           | * sensory-motor coordination, ie., that the light hits my eye
           | from the pen enables coordination of the movement of the pen
           | with my body
           | 
           | * sensory-motor representations, ie., my sensory motor system
           | is trainable, and trained by historical envirionemntal
           | coordination
           | 
           | * heirachical planning in coordination, ie., these sensory-
           | motor representations are goal-contextualised, so that I can
           | "solve my hunger" in an infinite number of ways (i can achive
           | this goal against an infinite permutation of obstacles)
           | 
           | * counterfactual reality-oriented mental simulation (aka
           | imagination) -- these rich sensory motor representatiosn are
           | reifable in imagination so i can simulate novel permutaitons
           | to the environment, possible shifts to physics, and so on. I
           | can anticipate these infinite number of obsatcles before any
           | have occured, or have ever occured.
           | 
           | * self-modelling feedback loops, ie., that my own process of
           | sensory-motor coordination is an input into that coordination
           | 
           | * abstraction in self-modelling, ie., that i can form
           | cognitive representations of my own goal directed actions as
           | they succeed/fail, and treat them as objects of their own
           | refinement
           | 
           | * abstraction across representation mental faculties into
           | propositional represenations, ie., that when i imagine that
           | "I am writing", the object of my imagination is the very same
           | object as the action "to write" -- so I know that when I
           | recall/imagine/act/reflect/etc. I am operating on the very-
           | same-objects of thought
           | 
           | * facilities of cognition: quantification, causal reasoning,
           | discrete logical reasoning -- etc. which can be applied both
           | at the sensory, motor and abstract conceptual level (ie., i
           | can "count in sensation" a few objects, also with action,
           | also in intellection)
           | 
           | * concept formation: abduction, various various of induction,
           | etc.
           | 
           | * concept composition: recursion, composition in extension of
           | concepts, composition in intension, etc.
           | 
           | One can go on and on here.
           | 
           | Decribe only what happens in a few minutes of the life of a
           | toddler as they play around with some blocks and you have
           | listed, rather trivially, a vast universe of capbilities that
           | an LLM lacks.
           | 
           | To believe an LLM has anything to do with intelligence is to
           | have somewhat quite profoundly mistaken what capabilities are
           | implied by intelligence -- what animals have, some more than
           | others, and a few even more so. To think this has anything to
           | do with linguistic competence is a proudly strange view of
           | the world.
           | 
           | Nature did not produce intelligence in animals in order that
           | they acquire competence in the correct ordering of linguistic
           | tokens. Universities did, to some degree, produce computer
           | science departments for this activity however.
        
           | tsimionescu wrote:
           | Well, if there's one thing we're pretty sure of about human
           | cognition, it's that there's very few GPUs in a human brain,
           | on account of the very low percentage of sillicon. So, in a
           | very very direct sense, we know for sure that human brains
           | don't work like LLMs.
           | 
           | Now, you could argue that, even though the substrate is
           | different, some important operations might be equivalent in
           | some way. But that is entirely up to you to argue, if you
           | wish to. The one thing we can say for sure is that they are
           | nothing even remotely similar at the physical layer, so the
           | default assumption has to be that they are nothing alike
           | period.
        
         | throwawaymaths wrote:
         | yeah, i think you dont understand either. rlhf is no where near
         | the volume of "pure" data that gets thrown into the pot of
         | data.
        
         | crackalamoo wrote:
         | Yes, 100% this. And even more so for reasoning models, which
         | have a different kind of RL workflow based on reasoning tokens.
         | I expect to see research labs come out with more ways to use RL
         | with LLMs in the future, especially for coding.
         | 
         | I feel it is quite important to dispel this idea given how
         | widespread it is, even though it does gesture at the truth of
         | how LLMs work in a way that's convenient for laypeople.
         | 
         | https://www.harysdalvi.com/blog/llms-dont-predict-next-word/
        
         | leptons wrote:
         | So it's still not really "AI", it's human intelligence doing
         | the heavy lifting with labeling. The LLM is still just a
         | statistical word guessing mechanism, with additional context
         | added by humans.
        
       | tracerbulletx wrote:
       | Imagine thinking that brains aren't making statistically informed
       | guesses about sequential information.
        
       | dwaltrip wrote:
       | Everyone, it's just "statistics". Numbers can't hurt you. Don't
       | worry
        
         | davidcbc wrote:
         | Numbers can hurt you quite a bit when they are wrong.
         | 
         | For example, numbers are the difference between a bridge
         | collapsing or not
        
           | dwaltrip wrote:
           | Sorry, I dropped my /s :)
        
       | electroglyph wrote:
       | https://thebullshitmachines.com/
        
         | jaza wrote:
         | Thanks for this, it should be added to school curricula
         | worldwide!
        
         | Lendal wrote:
         | I'm in the camp of people who believe that while they _are_
         | bullshit machines, oftentimes bullshit can be extremely useful.
         | I use these bullshit machines all the time now, for minor tasks
         | where bullshit is acceptable output. Whether it 's a chunk of
         | low-quality throwaway code that's easily verified and/or
         | corrected, or an answer to a question where close-enough is
         | good enough.
         | 
         | Not everything needs to pass a NASA quality inspection to be
         | useful.
        
       | roxolotl wrote:
       | The thesis is spot on with why I believe many skeptics remain
       | skeptics:
       | 
       | > To call AI a con isn't to say that the technology is not
       | remarkable, that it has no use, or that it will not transform the
       | world (perhaps for the better) in the right hands. It is to say
       | that AI is not what its developers are selling it as: a new class
       | of thinking--and, soon, feeling--machines.
       | 
       | Of course some are skeptical these tools are useful at all.
       | Others still don't want to use them for moral reasons. But I'm
       | inclined to believe the majority of the conversation is people
       | talking past each other.
       | 
       | The skeptics are skeptical of the way LLMs are being presented as
       | AI. The non hype promoters find them really useful. Both can be
       | correct. The tools are useful and the con is dangerous.
        
         | th0ma5 wrote:
         | A lot of the claims of usefulness evaporate when tested. The
         | word useful has many meanings. Perhaps their only reliable use
         | will be the rubber duck effect.
        
           | diggan wrote:
           | > A lot of the claims of usefulness evaporate when tested
           | 
           | In your personal experience? Because that's been my personal
           | experience too, in lots of cases with LLMs. But I've also
           | been surprised the other way, and overall it's been a net-
           | positive for myself, but I've also spent a lot of time
           | "practicing" getting prompts and tooling right. I could
           | easily see how people give it try for 20-30 minutes, not
           | getting the results they expected and give up, which yeah,
           | you probably won't get any net-positive effects by that.
        
           | squidbeak wrote:
           | Not for me they haven't.
        
         | timewizard wrote:
         | > the majority of the conversation is people talking past each
         | other.
         | 
         | There's billions and billions of dollars invested here. This
         | isn't a problem of social conversation. This is a problem of
         | investor manipulation.
         | 
         | This site is lousy with this. It pretends to be "Hacker News"
         | but it's really "Corporate Monopolist News."
        
       | 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
       | "Witness, too, how seamlessly Mark Zuckerberg went from selling
       | the idea that Facebook would lead to a flourishing of human
       | friendship to, now, selling the notion that Meta will provide you
       | with AI friends to replace the human pals you have lost in our
       | alienated social-media age."
       | 
       | Perhaps "AI" can replace people like Mark Zuckerberg. If BS can
       | be fully automated.
        
         | ares623 wrote:
         | It can't. To become someone like Mark, you must have absolute
         | zero empathy. LLMs have a little empathy in them due to their
         | training data.
        
       | lordnacho wrote:
       | The article skirts around a central question: what defines
       | humans? Specifically, intelligence and emotions?
       | 
       | The entire article is saying "it looks kinds like a human in some
       | ways, but people are being fooled!"
       | 
       | You can't really say that without at least attempting the
       | admittedly very deep question of what an authentic human is.
       | 
       | To me, it's intelligent because I can't distinguish its output
       | from a person's output, for much of the time.
       | 
       | It's not a human, because I've compartmentalized ChatGPT into its
       | own box and I'm actively disbelieving. The weak form is to say I
       | don't think my ChatGPT messages are being sent to the 3rd world
       | and answered by a human, though I don't think anyone was claiming
       | that.
       | 
       | But it is also abundantly clear to me that if you stripped away
       | the labels, it acts like a person acts a lot of the time. Say you
       | were to go back just a few years, maybe to covid. Let's say
       | OpenAI travels back with me in a time machine, and makes an
       | obscure web chat service where I can write to it.
       | 
       | Back in covid times, I didn't think AI could really do anything
       | outside of a lab, so I would not suspect I was talking to a
       | computer. I would think I was talking to a person. That person
       | would be very knowledgeable and able to answer a lot of
       | questions. What could I possibly ask it that would give away that
       | it wasn't real person? Lots of people can't answer simple
       | questions, so there isn't really a way to ask it something
       | specific that would work. I've had perhaps one interaction with
       | AI that would make it obvious, in thousands of messages. (On that
       | occasion, Claude started speaking Chinese with me, super weird.)
       | 
       | Another thing that I hear from time to time is an argument along
       | the line of "it just predicts the next word, it doesn't actually
       | understand it". Rather than an argument against AI being
       | intelligent, isn't this also telling us what "understanding" is?
       | Before we all had computers, how did people judge whether another
       | person understood something? Well, they would ask the person
       | something and the person would respond. One word at a time. If
       | the words were satisfactory, the interviewer would conclude that
       | you understood the topic and call you Doctor.
        
         | xyzal wrote:
         | To me, it's empathetic and caring. Which the LLMs will never
         | be, unless you give money to OpenAI.
         | 
         | Robots won't go get food for your sick, dying friend.
        
           | rnkn wrote:
           | A robot could certainly be programmed to get food for a sick,
           | dying friend (I mean, don't drones deliver Uber Eats?) but it
           | will never understand why, or have a phenomenal experience of
           | the act, or have a mental state of performing the act, or
           | have the biological brain state of performing the act, or
           | etc. etc.
        
             | JKCalhoun wrote:
             | Interesting. I wonder why?
             | 
             | Perhaps when we deliver food to our sick friend we
             | subconsciously feel an "atta boy" from our parents who
             | perhaps "trained" us in how to be kind when we were young
             | selfish things.
             | 
             | Obviously if that's all it is we could of course
             | "reinforce" this in AI.
        
             | squidbeak wrote:
             | "Never" is a very broad word.
        
           | diggan wrote:
           | That implies that people who aren't empathetic and/or caring
           | aren't human, which I guess could be argued too, but feels
           | too simplistic.
           | 
           | > Which the LLMs will never be
           | 
           | I'd argue LLMs will never be _anything_ , they're giving you
           | the text you're asking for, nothing more and nothing less.
           | You don't tell them "to be" empathic and caring? Well,
           | they're not gonna appear like that then, but if you do tell
           | them, they'll do their best to emulate that.
        
         | rnkn wrote:
         | > isn't this also telling us what "understanding" is?
         | 
         | When people start studying theory of mind someone usually jumps
         | in with this thought. It's more or less a description of
         | Functionalism (although minus the "mental state"). It's not
         | very popular because most people can immediately identify an
         | phenomenon of understanding separate from the function of
         | understanding. People also have immediate understanding of
         | certain sensations, e.g. the feeling of balance when riding a
         | bike, sometimes called qualia. And so on, and so forth. There
         | is plenty of study on what constitutes understanding and most
         | healthily dismiss the "string of words" theory.
        
           | benjismith wrote:
           | A similar kind of question about "understanding" is asking
           | whether a house cat understands the physics of leaping up
           | onto a countertop. When you see the cat preparing to jump, it
           | take a moment and gazes upward to its target. Then it wiggles
           | its rump, shifts its tail, and springs up into the air.
           | 
           | Do you think there are components of the cat's brain that
           | calculate forces and trajectories, incorporating the
           | gravitational constant and the cat's static mass?
           | 
           | Probably not.
           | 
           | So, does a cat "understand" the physics of jumping?
           | 
           | The cat's knowledge about jumping comes from trial and error,
           | and their brain builds a neural network that encodes the
           | important details about successful and unsuccessful jumping
           | parameters. Even if the cat has no direct cognitive access to
           | those parameters.
           | 
           | So the cat can "understand" jumping without having a "meta-
           | understanding" about their understanding. When a cat "thinks"
           | about jumping, and prepares to leap, they aren't rehearsing
           | their understanding of the physics, but repeating the ritual
           | that has historically lead them to perform successful jumps
           | in the past.
           | 
           | I think the theory of mind of an LLM is like that. In my
           | interactions with LLMs, I think "thinking" is a reasonable
           | word to describe what they're doing. And I don't think it
           | will be very long before I'd also use the word
           | "consciousness" to describe the architecture of their thought
           | processes.
        
         | _petronius wrote:
         | > The article skirts around a central question: what defines
         | humans? Specifically, intelligence and emotions?
         | 
         | > The entire article is saying "it looks kinds like a human in
         | some ways, but people are being fooled!"
         | 
         | > You can't really say that without at least attempting the
         | admittedly very deep question of what an authentic human is.
         | 
         | > To me, it's intelligent because I can't distinguish its
         | output from a person's output, for much of the time.
         | 
         | I think the article does address that rather directly, and that
         | it is also is addressing very specifically your setence about
         | what you can and can't distinguish.
         | 
         | LLMs are not capable of symbolic reasoning[0] and if you
         | understand how they work internally, you will realize they do
         | no reasoning whatsoever.
         | 
         | Humans and many other animals are fully capable of reasoning
         | outside of language (in the former case, prior to language
         | acquisition), and the reduction of "intellgence" to "language"
         | is a catagory error made by people falling vicim to the ELIZA
         | effect[1], not the result of a sum of these particular
         | statistical methods being equal real intelligence of any kind.
         | 
         | 0: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.05229
         | 
         | 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA_effect
        
           | FrustratedMonky wrote:
           | > LLMs are not capable of symbolic reasoning[0]
           | 
           | Despite the citation. I think this is still being studied.
           | And others have found some evidence that it forms internal
           | symbols.
           | 
           | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2022.004.
           | ..
           | 
           | Or maybe, can say, an LLM can do symbolic reasoning, but can
           | it do it very well? People forget that humans are also not
           | great at symbolic reasoning. Humans also use a lot of cludgy
           | hacks to do it, it isn't really that natural.
           | 
           | Example often used, about it not doing math well. But humans
           | also don't do math well. How humans are taught to do division
           | and multiplication, really is a little algorithm. So what
           | would be difference between human following algorithm to do a
           | multiplication, and an LLM calling some python to do it. Does
           | that mean it can't symbolically reason about numbers? Or that
           | humans also can't?
        
           | zahlman wrote:
           | > the reduction of "intellgence" to "language" is a catagory
           | error made by people falling vicim to the ELIZA effect[1],
           | not the result of a sum of these particular statistical
           | methods being equal real intelligence of any kind.
           | 
           | I sometimes wonder how many of the people most easily
           | impressed with LLM outputs have actually seen or used ELIZA
           | or similar systems.
        
         | intended wrote:
         | This isn't that hard, to be honest. And I'm not just saying
         | this.
         | 
         | One school of thought is - the output is indistinguishable from
         | what a human would produce given these questions.
         | 
         | Another school of thought is - the underlying process is not
         | thinking in the sense that humans do it
         | 
         | Both are true.
         | 
         | For the lay person, calling it thinking leads to confusions. It
         | creates intuitions that do not actually predict the behavior of
         | the underlying system.
         | 
         | It results in bad decisions on whether to trust the output, or
         | to allocate resources - because if the use of the term
         | thinking.
         | 
         | Humans can pass an exam by memorizing previous answer papers or
         | just memorizing the text books.
         | 
         | This is not what we consider having learnt something. Learning
         | is kinda like having the Lego blocks to build a model you can
         | manipulate in your head.
         | 
         | For most situations, the output of both people is fungible.
         | 
         | Both people can pass tests.
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | This is maybe the best response thus far. We can say that
           | there's no real modelling capability inside these LLMs, and
           | that thinking is the ability to build these models and
           | generate predictions from them, reject wrong models, and so
           | on.
           | 
           | But then we must come up with something other than opening up
           | the LLM to look for the "model generating structure" or
           | whatever you want to call it. There must be some sort of
           | experiment that shows you externally that the thing doesn't
           | behave like a modelling machine might.
        
             | intended wrote:
             | Heh, this phrasing has resulted in 2 "best response" type
             | comments in the 2 times I've used it.
             | 
             | I think maybe it makes sense for people who already have
             | the building blocks in place and just require seeing it
             | assembled.
        
         | indymike wrote:
         | > The entire article is saying "it looks kinds like a human in
         | some ways, but people are being fooled!"
         | 
         | The question is, what's wrong with that?
         | 
         | At some level there's a very human desire for something genuine
         | and I suspect that no matter the "humanness" of an AI, it will
         | never be able to close that desire for genuine. Or maybe... it
         | is that people don't like the idea of dealing with an
         | intelligence that will almost always have the upper hand
         | because of information disparity.
        
         | greg_V wrote:
         | > Another thing that I hear from time to time is an argument
         | along the line of "it just predicts the next word, it doesn't
         | actually understand it". Rather than an argument against AI
         | being intelligent, isn't this also telling us what
         | "understanding" is? Before we all had computers, how did people
         | judge whether another person understood something? Well, they
         | would ask the person something and the person would respond.
         | One word at a time. If the words were satisfactory, the
         | interviewer would conclude that you understood the topic and
         | call you Doctor.
         | 
         | You call a Doctor 'Doctor' because they're wearing a white coat
         | and are sitting in a doctor's office. The words they say might
         | make vague sense to you, but since you are not a medical
         | professional, you actually have no empirical grounds to judge
         | whether or not they're bullshitting you, hence you have the
         | option to get a second or third opinion. But otherwise, you're
         | just trusting the process that produces doctors, which involves
         | earlier generations of doctors asking this fellow a series of
         | questions with the ability to discern right from wrong, and
         | grading them accordingly.
         | 
         | When someone can't tell if something just sounds about right or
         | is in fact bullshit, they're called a layman in the field at
         | best or gullible at worst. And it's telling that the most hype
         | around AI is to be found in middle management, where bullshit
         | is the coin of the realm.
        
           | lordnacho wrote:
           | Hmm, I was actually thinking of a viva situation. You sit
           | with a panel of experts, they talk to you, they decide
           | whether you passed your PhD in
           | philosophy/history/physics/etc.
           | 
           | That process is done purely by language, but we supposed that
           | inside you there is something deeper than a token prediction
           | machine.
        
         | navigate8310 wrote:
         | Maybe it needs blood and flesh to be able for us to happily
         | accept it.
        
           | the8472 wrote:
           | https://x.com/chargoddard/status/1931652388399784325
        
             | zahlman wrote:
             | This kind of mockery is unproductive and doesn't constitute
             | an actual argument against the position it describes.
        
         | strogonoff wrote:
         | We cannot actually judge whether something is intelligent in
         | some abstract absolute way; we can only judge whether it is
         | intelligent in the same way we are. When someone says "LLM
         | chatbot output looks like a person's output, so it is
         | intelligent", the implication is that it is _intelligent like a
         | human would be_.
         | 
         | With that distinction in mind, whether an LLM-based chatbot's
         | output looks like human output does not answer the question of
         | whether the LLM is actually like a human.
         | 
         | Not even because measuring that similarity by taking text
         | output at a point in time is laughable (it would have to span
         | the time equivalent of human life, and include much more than
         | text), but because LLM-based chatbot is a tool built
         | _specifically_ to mimic human output; if it does so
         | successfully then it functions as intended. In fact, we should
         | deliberately discount the similarity in output as evidence for
         | similarity in nature, because _similarity in output is an
         | explicit goal, while similarity in underlying nature is a non-
         | goal, a defect_. It is safe to assume the latter: if it turned
         | out that LLMs are similar enough to humans in more ways than
         | output, they would join octopus and the like and qualify to be
         | protected from abuse and torture (and since what is done to
         | those chatbots in order for them to be useful in the way they
         | are would pretty clearly be considered abuse and torture when
         | done to a human-like entity, this would decimate the industry).
         | 
         | That considered, we do not[0] know exactly _how_ an individual
         | human mind functions to assess that from first principles, but
         | we can approximate whether an LLM chatbot is like a human by
         | judging things like whether it is made in a way at all similar
         | to how a human is made. It is _fundamentally_ different, and if
         | you want to claim that human nature is substrate-independent,
         | I'd say it's you who should provide some evidence--keeping in
         | mind that, as above, similarity in output does not constitute
         | such evidence.
         | 
         | [0] ...and most likely never could, because of the self-
         | referential recursive nature of the question. Scientific method
         | hinges on at least some objectivity and thus is of very limited
         | help when initial hypotheses, experiment procedures, etc., are
         | all supplied and interpreted by _the very subject being
         | studied_.
        
       | EMM_386 wrote:
       | > These statements betray a conceptual error: Large language
       | models do not, cannot, and will not "understand" anything at all.
       | They are not emotionally intelligent or smart in any meaningful
       | or recognizably human sense of the word.
       | 
       | This is terrible write-up, simply because it's the "Reddit
       | Expert" phenomena but in print.
       | 
       | They "understand" things. It depends on how your defining that.
       | 
       | It doesn't have to be in its training data! Whoah.
       | 
       | In the last chat I had with Claude, it naturally just arose that
       | surrender flag emojis, the more there were, was how funny I
       | thought the joke was. If there were plus symbol emojis on the
       | end, those were score multipliers.
       | 
       | How many times did I have to "teach" it that? Zero.
       | 
       | How many other times has it seen that during training? I'll have
       | to go with "zero" but that could be higher, that's my best guess
       | since I made it up, in that context.
       | 
       | So, does that Claude instance "understand"?
       | 
       | I'd say it does. It knows that 5 surrender flags and a plus sign
       | is better than 4 with no plus sign.
       | 
       | Is it absurd? Yes .. but funny. As it figured it out on its own.
       | "Understanding".
       | 
       | ------
       | 
       | Four flags = "Okay, this is getting too funny, I need a break"
       | 
       | Six flags = "THIS IS COMEDY NUCLEAR WARFARE, I AM BEING DESTROYED
       | BY JOKES"
        
         | Hendrikto wrote:
         | > This is terrible write-up, simply because it's the "Reddit
         | Expert" phenomena but in print.
         | 
         | How is your comment any different?
        
           | EMM_386 wrote:
           | Because I provided evidence?
           | 
           | And made the relevant point that I need know what you mean by
           | "understanding"?
           | 
           | The only 2 things in the universe that know that 6 is the
           | maximum white flag emojis for jokes, and then might be
           | modified by plus signs is ...
           | 
           | My brain, and that digital instance of Claude AI, in that
           | context.
           | 
           | That's it - 2. And I didn't teach it, it picked it up.
           | 
           | So if that's not "understanding" what is it?
           | 
           | That's why I asked that first, example second.
           | 
           | I don't see how laying out logically like this makes me the
           | "Reddit Expert", sort of the opposite.
           | 
           | It's not about knowing the internals of a transformer, this
           | is a question that relates to a word that means something to
           | humans ... but what is their interpretation?
        
         | fer wrote:
         | > More means more
         | 
         | You could have used "loool" vs "loooooool", "xDD" vs
         | "xDDDDDDDDD", using flags doesn't change a whole lot.
        
           | EMM_386 wrote:
           | Did I say it did!?
           | 
           | These are the type of responses that REALLY will drive me
           | nuts.
           | 
           | I never said the flag emojis were special.
           | 
           | I've been a software engineers for almost 30 years.
           | 
           | I know what Unicode code pages are.
           | 
           | This is not helpful. How is my example missing your
           | definition of understanding?
           | 
           | Replace the flags with yours if it helps ... same thing.
           | 
           | It's not the flags it's the understanding of what they are.
           | They can be pirate ships or cats.
           | 
           | In my example they are surrender flags, because that is
           | logical given the conversation.
           | 
           | It will "understand" that too. But the article says it can't
           | do that. And the article, sorry, is wrong.
        
         | yahoozoo wrote:
         | Post the convo
        
       | clejack wrote:
       | Are people still experiencing llms getting stuck in knowledge and
       | comprehension loops? I used them but not excessively, and I'm not
       | heavily tracking their performance either.
       | 
       | For example, if you ask an llm a question, and it produces a
       | hallucination then you try to correct it or explain to it that it
       | is incorrect; and it produces a near identical hallucination
       | while implying that it has produced a new, correct result, this
       | suggests that it does not understand its own understanding (or
       | pseudo-understanding if you like).
       | 
       | Without this level of introspection, directing any notion of true
       | understanding, intelligence, or anything similar seems premature.
       | 
       | Llms need to be able to consistently and accurately say, some
       | variation on the phrase "I don't know," or "I'm uncertain." This
       | indicates knowledge of self. It's like a mirror test for minds.
        
         | ramchip wrote:
         | Like the article says... I feel it's counter-productive to
         | picture an LLM as "learning" or "thinking". It's just a text
         | generator. If it's producing code that calls non-existent APIs
         | for instance, it's kind of a waste of time to try to explain to
         | the LLM that so-and-so doesn't exist. Better just try again and
         | dump an OpenAPI doc or some sample code into it to influence
         | the text generator towards correct output.
        
         | thomastjeffery wrote:
         | That's the difference between bias and logic. A statistical
         | model is applied bias, just like computation is applied
         | logic/arithmetic. Once you realize that, it's pretty easy to
         | understand the potential strengths and limitations of a model.
         | 
         | Both approaches are missing a critical piece: objectivity. They
         | work directly with the data, and not _about_ the data.
        
       | martindbp wrote:
       | Many people who claim that people don't understand how AI works
       | often have a very simplified view of the short comings of LLMs
       | themselves, e.g. "it's just predicting the next token", "it's
       | just statistics", "stochastic parrot" and seems to be grounded in
       | what AI was 2-3 years ago. Rarely have they actually read the
       | recent research on interpretability. It's clear LLMs are doing
       | more than just pattern matching. They may not think like humans
       | or as well, but it's not k-NN with interpolation.
        
         | beardedwizard wrote:
         | Apple recently published a paper that seems to disagree and
         | plainly states it's just pattern matching along with tests to
         | prove it.
         | 
         | https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/illusion-of-think...
        
           | stuckinhell wrote:
           | I'm having a hard time taking apple seriously, when they have
           | don't even have a great llm.
           | 
           | https://www.techrepublic.com/article/news-anthropic-ceo-
           | ai-i... Anthropic CEO: "We Do Not Understand How Our Own AI
           | Creations Work". I'm going to lean with Anthropic on this
           | one.
        
             | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
             | > I have a hard time taking your claim about rotten eggs
             | seriously when you're not even a chicken.
        
             | beardedwizard wrote:
             | I guess I prefer to look at empirical evidence over
             | feelings and arbitrary statements. AI ceos are notoriously
             | full of crap and make statements with perverse financial
             | incentives.
        
         | deadbabe wrote:
         | A lot of the advancement boils down to LLMs reprompting
         | themselves with better prompts to get better answers.
        
           | chimprich wrote:
           | Like an inner conversation? That seems a lot like how I think
           | when I consider a challenging problem.
        
       | stevenhuang wrote:
       | It is a logic error to think that knowing how something works
       | means you are justified to say it can't possess qualities like
       | intelligence or ability to reason when we don't even understand
       | how these qualities arise in humans.
       | 
       | And even if we do know enough about our brains to say
       | conclusively that it's not how LLMs work (predictive coding
       | suggests the principles are more alike that not), it doesn't mean
       | they're not reasoning or intelligent; it would just mean they
       | would not be reasoning/intelligent _like humans_.
        
       | yahoozoo wrote:
       | Why do these same books coming out of AI (Empire of AI, The AI
       | Con) keep getting referenced in all of these articles? It seems
       | like some kind of marketing campaign.
        
         | tim333 wrote:
         | I guess if you an english literature grad type the normal way
         | to approach a subject is to look at the leading books in that
         | area.
        
       | tim333 wrote:
       | >Demis Hassabis, [] said the goal is to create "models that are
       | able to understand the world around us."
       | 
       | >These statements betray a conceptual error: Large language
       | models do not, cannot, and will not "understand" anything at all.
       | 
       | This seems quite a common error in the criticism of AI. Take a
       | reasonable statement about AI not mentioning LLMs and then say
       | the speaker (nobel prize winning AI expert in this case) doesn't
       | know what they are on about because current LLMs don't do that.
       | 
       | Deepmind already have project Astra, a model but not just
       | language but also visual and probably some other stuff where you
       | can point a phone at something and ask about it and it seems to
       | understand what it is quite well. Example here
       | https://youtu.be/JcDBFAm9PPI?t=40
        
         | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
         | >Deepmind already have project Astra, a model but not just
         | language but also visual and probably some other stuff where
         | you can point a phone at something and ask about it and it
         | seems to understand what it is quite well.
         | 
         | Operative phrase "seems to understand". If you had some bizarre
         | image unlike anything anyone's ever seen before and showed it
         | to a clever human, the human might manage to figure out what it
         | is after thinking about it for a time. The model could never
         | figure out anything, because it does not think. It's just a
         | gigantic filter that takes known-and-similar images as input,
         | and spits out a description on the other side, quite
         | mindlessly. The language models do the same thing, do they not?
         | They take prompts as inputs, and shit output from their LLM
         | anuses based on those prompts. They're even deterministic if
         | you take the seeds into account.
         | 
         | We'll scale all those up, and they'll produce ever-more-
         | impressive results, but none of these will ever "understand"
         | anything.
        
           | joenot443 wrote:
           | > If you had some bizarre image unlike anything anyone's ever
           | seen before and showed it to a clever human, the human might
           | manage to figure out what it is after thinking about it for a
           | time
           | 
           | Out of curiosity, what sort of 'bizarre image' are you
           | imagining here? Like a machine which does something
           | fantastical?
           | 
           | I actually think the quantity of bizarre imagery whose
           | content is unknown to humans is pretty darn low.
           | 
           | I'm not really well-equipped to have the LLMs -> AGI
           | discussion, much smarter people have said much more poignant
           | things. I will say that anecdotally, anything I've been
           | asking LLMs for has likely been solved many times by other
           | humans, and in my day to day life it's unusual I find myself
           | wanting to do things never done before.
        
             | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
             | >I actually think the quantity of bizarre imagery whose
             | content is unknown to humans is pretty darn low.
             | 
             | Historically, this just hasn't ever been the case. There
             | are images today that wouldn't have merely been outlandish
             | 150 years ago, but absolutely mysterious. A picture of a
             | spiral galaxy perhaps, or electron-microscopy of some
             | microfauna. Humans would have been able to do little more
             | than describe the relative shapes. And thus there are more
             | images that no one will be familiar with for centuries. But
             | if we were to somehow see them early, even without the
             | context of how the image was produced I suspect strongly
             | that clever people might manage to figure out what those
             | images represent. No model could do this.
             | 
             | The quantity of bizarre imagery is finite... each pixel in
             | a raster has a finite number of color values, and there are
             | finite numbers of pixels in a raster image after all. But
             | the number is staggeringly large, even the subset of images
             | that represent real things, even the subset of _that_ which
             | represents things which humans have no concept of. My
             | imagination is too modest to even touch the surface of
             | that, but my cognition is sufficient to surmise that it
             | exists.
        
       | throwawaymaths wrote:
       | i think this author doesnt fully understand how llms work either.
       | Dismissing it as "a statistical model" is silly. hell, quantum
       | mechanics is a statistical model too.
       | 
       | moreover, each layer of an llm imbues the model with the
       | possibility of looking further back in the conversion and imbuing
       | meaning and context through conceptual associations (thats the
       | k-v part of the kv cache). I cant see how this _doesn 't_
       | describe, abstractly, human cognition. now, maybe llms are not
       | fully capable of the breadth of human cognition or have a harder
       | time training to certain deeper insight, but fundamentally the
       | structure is there (clever training and/or architectural
       | improvements may still be possible -- in the way that every CNN
       | is a subgraph of a FCNN that would be nigh impossible for a FCNN
       | to discover randomly through training)
       | 
       | to say llms are not smart in any way that is recognizable is just
       | cherry-picking anecdotal data. if llms were not ever recognizably
       | smart, people would not be using them the way they are.
        
         | 827a wrote:
         | > I cant see how this doesn't describe, abstractly, human
         | cognition. now, maybe llms are not fully capable of the breadth
         | of human cognition
         | 
         | But, I can fire back with: You're making the same fallacy you
         | correctly assert the article as making. When I see how a CPU's
         | ALU adds two numbers together, it looks strikingly similar to
         | how _I_ add two numbers together in my head. I can 't see how
         | the ALU's internal logic doesn't describe, abstractly, human
         | cognition. Now, maybe the ALU isn't fully capable of the
         | breadth of human cognition...
         | 
         | It turns out, the gaps expressed in the "fully capable of the
         | breadth of human cognition" part _really, really, really_
         | matter. Like, when it comes to ALUs, they _overwhelm_ any
         | impact that the parts which look similar cover. The question
         | should be: How significant are the gaps in how LLMs mirror
         | human cognition? I 'm not sure we know, but I suspect they're
         | significant enough to not write away as trivial.
        
           | throwawaymaths wrote:
           | do they matter in a practical sense? an LLM can write a
           | structured essay better than most undergrads. and as for
           | measuring "smart", we throw that word around a lot. a dog is
           | smart _in a human way_ for being able to fetch one of 30
           | objects based on name or to drive a car (yes, dogs can
           | drive), the bar for  "smart" is pretty low, claiming llms are
           | not smart is just prejudice.
        
             | mjburgess wrote:
             | You are assuming that because we measure an undergrad's
             | ability to critical think with undergrad essays, that is a
             | valid test for the LLM's capacity to think -- it isnt. This
             | measures only, extremely narrowly, the LLM's capacity to
             | produce undergrad essays.
             | 
             | Society doesnt require undergrad essays. Nor does it
             | require yet another webserver, iot script, or weekend hobby
             | project. Society has all of those things already, hence the
             | ability to train LLMs to produce them.
             | 
             | "Society", the economy, etc. are operating under
             | competitive optimisation processes -- so that what is
             | valuable, on the margin, is what isn't readily produced.
             | What is readily produced, has been produced, is being
             | produced, and so on. Solved problems are solved problems.
             | Intelligence is the capacity of animals to operate "on the
             | margin" -- that's why we have it:
             | 
             | Intelligence is a process of rapid adaption to novel
             | circumstances, it is not, unlike puzzle-solvers like to
             | claim, the _solution_ to puzzles. Once a puzzle is solved
             | so there are historical exemplars of its solution, it no
             | longer requires intelligence to solve it -- hence using an
             | LLM. (In this sense computer science is the art of removing
             | intelligence from the solving of unsolved and unposed
             | puzzles).
             | 
             | LLMs surface "solved problems" more readily than search
             | engines. There's no evidence, and plenty against, that they
             | provide the value of intelligence -- their ability to
             | advance one's capabilities under compeititon from others,
             | is literally zero -- since all players in the economic (,
             | social, etc.) game have access to the LLM.
             | 
             | The LLM itself, in this sense, not only has no
             | intelligence, but doesnt even show up in intelligent
             | processes that we follow. It's washed out immediately -- it
             | removes from our task lists, some "tasks that require
             | intelligence", leaving the remainder for our actual
             | intelligence to engage with.
        
               | throwawaymaths wrote:
               | if this is how you feel you haven't really used llms
               | enough or are deliberately ignoring sporadically
               | appearing data. github copilot for me routinely solves
               | microproblems in unexplored areas it has no business
               | knowing. Not always, but it's also not zero.
               | 
               | ...and i encourage you to be more realistic about the
               | market and what society "needs". does society really
               | _need_ an army of consultants at accenture? i dont know.
               | but they are getting paid a lot. does that mean the
               | allocation of resources is wrong? or does that mean
               | theres something cynical but real in their existence?
        
               | 827a wrote:
               | Bro you have as serious problem with reading the first
               | few sentences of a comment, finding something you
               | disagree with, then skipping over the entire rest of the
               | comment, characterizing it as "well they must entirely
               | disagree with my worldview and now I'm under attack". You
               | gotta take a step back.
        
               | nonameiguess wrote:
               | I'd just like to say, with unfortunately little to add,
               | that your comments on this article are terrific to read.
               | You've captured perfectly how I have felt about LLMs
               | roughly from the first time they came out to how I still
               | feel now. They're utterly amazingly technology that truly
               | do feel like magic, except that I have enough of a
               | background in math modeling and ML to de-mystify them.
               | 
               | But the key difference between a model and a human is
               | exactly what you just said. It's what animals can do _on
               | the margin_. Nobody taught humans language. Each of us
               | individually who are alive today, sure. But go back far
               | enough and humanity invented language. We directly
               | interact with the physical world, develop mental models
               | of it, observe that we are able to make sounds and
               | symbols and somehow come to a mutual agreement that they
               | should mean something in rough analogy to these
               | independent but sufficiently similar mental models.
               | _That_ is magic. Nobody, no programmer, no mathematician,
               | no investor, has any idea how humanity did that, and has
               | no idea how to get a machine to do it, either.
               | Replicating the accomplishments of something else is a
               | tremendous feat and it will get our software very, very
               | far, maybe as far as we ever need to really get it. But
               | it is not doing what animals did. It didn 't just figure
               | this shit out on its own.
               | 
               | Maybe somewhat ironically, I don't even know that this is
               | a real limitation that current techniques for developing
               | statistical models can't overcome. Put some "AIs" loose
               | in robot bodies, let them freely move about the world
               | trying to accomplish the simple goal of continuing to
               | exist, with cooperation allowed, and they may very well
               | develop ways to encode knowledge, share it with each
               | other, and write it down somehow to pass on to the future
               | so they don't need to continually re-learn everything,
               | especially if they get millions of years to do it.
               | 
               | It's obvious, though, that we don't even want this. It
               | might be interesting purely as an experiment, but it
               | probably isn't going to lead to any useful tools. What we
               | do now actually does lead to useful tools. To me, that
               | should tell us something in these discussions. Trying to
               | figure if X piece of software is or isn't cognitively
               | equal to or better than a human in some respect is a
               | tiring, pointless exercise. Who cares? Is it useful to us
               | or not? What are its uses? What are its limitations?
               | We're just trying to automate some toil here, aren't we?
               | We're not trying to play God and create a separate form
               | of life with its own purposes.
        
             | 827a wrote:
             | Well; many LLMs can compose a structured essay better than
             | most undergrounds, yet most also struggle with basic
             | addition. E.g. Gemma-3-4B:
             | 
             | add 1 and 1
             | 
             | google/gemma-3-4b 1 + 1 = 2
             | 
             | add four to that
             | 
             | google/gemma-3-4b 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 4
             | 
             | So, 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 4 = 8
             | 
             | Of course, smarter, billion dollar LLMs can do that. But,
             | they aren't able to fetch one of 30 objects based on name,
             | nor can they drive a car. They're often super-important
             | components of much larger systems that are, at the very
             | least, getting really close to being able to do these
             | things if not able to already.
             | 
             | It should be worldview-changing to realize that writing a
             | graduate-level research essay is, in some ways, easier than
             | adding 4 to 2. Its just not easier for humans or ALUs. It
             | turns out, intelligence is a multi-dimensional spectrum,
             | and words like "smart" are kinda un-smart to use when
             | describing entities who vie for a place on it.
        
               | throwawaymaths wrote:
               | the llm by default (without better prompting) is vibe
               | solving math, and if you tell a human to vibe solve it
               | they might give similar results. tell a teenager to add
               | two three digit numbers without a scratchpad and they
               | will mess up in similar ways, tell an llm to show and
               | check their work and they will do much better.
        
               | recursive wrote:
               | > tell a teenager to add two three digit numbers without
               | a scratchpad and they will mess up in similar ways
               | 
               | More likely they will say "lol, i don't know". And this
               | is better than a lot of LLM output in the sense that it's
               | aware of its limits, and doesn't hallucinate.
        
               | 827a wrote:
               | It feels like I'm talking with an LLM that's losing a
               | coherent view of its context window right now. Because
               | here's the conversation up to this point:
               | 
               | 1. "LLMs are smart they have intelligence that is some
               | significant portion of the breadth of human cognition."
               | 
               | 2. Me: "ALUs are also smart, maybe that's not a good word
               | to use."
               | 
               | 3. "But LLMs can write essays."
               | 
               | 4. Me: "But they can't do basic math, so clearly there's
               | different definitions of the word 'smart'"
               | 
               | 5. "Yeah that's because they're vibe-solving math.
               | Teenagers also operate on vibes."
               | 
               | What are you even talking about?? Its like you're an AI
               | programmed to instantly attack any suggestion that LLMs
               | have limitations.
        
             | sh34r wrote:
             | On a finite planet, we probably ought to care about how
             | many orders of magnitude more energy that the LLM must use
             | to perform a task than our 20-watt chimp-brains.
        
         | francisofascii wrote:
         | The creators of llms don't fully understand how they work
         | either.
        
       | mmsc wrote:
       | This can be generalized to "what happens when people don't
       | understand how something works". In the computing world, that
       | could be "undefined behavior" (of which itself is .. defined as
       | undefined) in the C programming language, or anything as simple
       | as "functionality people didn't know because they didn't read the
       | documentation"
        
       | pier25 wrote:
       | People in tech and science might have a sense that LLMs are word
       | prediction machines but that's only scratching the surface.
       | 
       | Even AI companies have a hard time figuring out how emergent
       | capabilities work.
       | 
       | Almost nobody in the general audience understands how LLMs work.
        
       | elia_42 wrote:
       | Totally agree with the content of the article. In part, AI is
       | certainly able to simulate very well the behavior and operations
       | of a "way of expressing itself" of our mind, that is,
       | mathematical calculation, deductive reasoning and other similar
       | things.
       | 
       | But our mind is extremely polymorphic and these operations
       | represent only one side of a much more complex and difficult to
       | explain whole. Even Alan Turing, in his writings on the
       | possibility of building a mechanical intelligence, realized that
       | it was impossible for a machine to completely imitate a human
       | being: for this to be possible, the machine would have to "walk
       | among other humans, scaring all the citizens of a small town"
       | (Turing says more or less like this).
       | 
       | Therefore, he realized many years ago that he had to face this
       | problem with a very cautious and limited approach, limiting the
       | imitative capabilities of the machine to those human activities
       | in which calculation, probability and arithmetic are main, such
       | as playing chess, learning languages and mathematical
       | calculation.
        
       | Havoc wrote:
       | We can debate about intelligence all day but there is also an
       | element of "if it's stupid but it works then it's not stupid"
       | here
       | 
       | A very large portion of tasks humans do don't need all that much
       | deep thinking. So on that basis it seems likely that it'll be
       | revolutionary.
        
       | pmdr wrote:
       | > Whitney Wolfe Herd, the founder of the dating app Bumble,
       | proclaimed last year that the platform may soon allow users to
       | automate dating itself, disrupting old-fashioned human courtship
       | by providing them with an AI "dating concierge" that will
       | interact with other users' concierges until the chatbots find a
       | good fit.
       | 
       | > Herd doubled down on these claims in a lengthy New York Times
       | interview last month.
       | 
       | Seriously, what is wrong with these people?
        
         | quickthrowman wrote:
         | Well, her specific problem is she was a billionaire but isn't
         | one now so she'll say damn near anything to regain that third
         | comma. Nothing more than greed. Match just keeps Bumble around
         | to avoid antitrust legislation, similar to Google and Mozilla's
         | position.
         | 
         | Edit: It's not that wild of an idea anyways, there's a good
         | black mirror episode about it.
        
         | jajko wrote:
         | if it works (from their perspective), it ain't stupid
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | Her problem is that BMBL is down 92% and they need to tell
         | investors that they'll all be rich again:
         | 
         | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMBL/
         | 
         | Most of the dumb AI pitches share that basic goal: someone is
         | starting from what investors want to be true and using "AI"
         | like it's a magic spell which can make that possible, just as
         | we've seen going back to the dawn of the web. Sober voices
         | don't get attention because it's boring to repeat a 10%
         | performance improvement or reduction in cost.
        
           | codethief wrote:
           | > Her problem is that BMBL is down 92% and they need to tell
           | investors that they'll all be rich again
           | 
           | Is this also why Bumble has undergone so many drastic changes
           | in recent times? I always thought they must hired some new &
           | overzealous product managers that didn't actually understand
           | the secret sauce that had made their product so successful in
           | the first place. Either way, it seems the usual
           | enshittification has begun.
        
           | Lerc wrote:
           | I haven't seen any measure of how frequent these dumb ideas
           | are. Certainly they exist, but what proportion of AI startups
           | are like these cases that turn up in the media as AI
           | disasters.
           | 
           | It's kind of hard to tell with some ideas that they are
           | actually dumb ideas until they have been tried an failed. A
           | few ideas that seem dumb when suggested turn out to be
           | reasonable when tried. Quite a few are revealed to be just as
           | dumb as they looked.
           | 
           | Thinking about it like that actually more comfortable with
           | the idea of investors putting money into dumb ideas, They
           | have taken responsibility for deciding for themselves how
           | dumb they think something might be. It's their money (even if
           | I do have issues with the mechanisms that allowed them to
           | acquire it), let them spend it on things that they feel might
           | possibly work.
           | 
           | I think there should be a distinction made between dumb
           | seeming ideas and deception though. Saying 'I think people
           | will want this' or 'I think AI can solve this problem' is a
           | very different thing to manufacturing data to say "people
           | want this", or telling people a problem has been solved when
           | it hasn't. There's probably too much of this, and I doubt it
           | is limited to AI startups, or even Startups of any kind.
           | There are probably quite a few 'respectable' seeming
           | companies that are, from time to time, prepared to fudge data
           | to make it seem that some of the problems ahead of them are
           | already behind them.
        
         | sh34r wrote:
         | I've been asking myself that question regarding dating app
         | companies for 10 years. The status quo is so dystopian already.
         | Sure, go ahead, put an LLM in it. How much worse could it get
         | than a glorified ELO rating?
        
       | Notatheist wrote:
       | Wasn't it Feynman who said we will never be impressed with a
       | computer that can do things better than a human can unless that
       | computer does it the same way a human being does?
       | 
       | AI could trounce experts as a conversational partner and/or
       | educator in every imaginable field and we'd still be trying to
       | proclaim humanity's superiority because technically the silicon
       | can't 'think' and therefore it can't be 'intelligent' or 'smart'.
       | Checkmate, machines!
        
       | ineedasername wrote:
       | So many of these articles jump around to incredibly different
       | concerns or research questions. This one raises plenty of
       | important questions but threads a narrative through them that
       | attempts to lump it all as a single issue.
       | 
       | Just to start off with, saying LLM models are "not smart" and
       | "don't/won't/can't understand" ... That is really not a useful
       | way to begin any conversation about this. To "understand" is
       | itself a word without, in this context, any useful definition
       | that would allow evaluation of models against it. It's this
       | imprecision that is at the root of so much hand wringing and
       | frustration by everyone.
        
       | jemiluv8 wrote:
       | Most people without any idea about the foundations on which LLMs
       | are built call them AI. But I insist on calling them LLMs,
       | further creating confusion. How do you explain what a large
       | language model is to someone that can't comprehend how a machine
       | can learn a "word model" on a large corpus of text/data to make
       | it generate "seemingly sound/humane" responses without making
       | them feel like they are interacting with the AI that they've been
       | hearing about in the movies/sci-fi?
        
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