[HN Gopher] Adam Riess and the Hubble tension
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       Adam Riess and the Hubble tension
        
       Author : samizdis
       Score  : 65 points
       Date   : 2025-05-30 15:04 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theatlantic.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theatlantic.com)
        
       | observationist wrote:
       | Archive link: https://archive.is/51R4k
        
       | boxfire wrote:
       | Is there any succinct publication of his observations?
        
         | A_D_E_P_T wrote:
         | There's a "general audience" review by the man himself.
         | 
         | > https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.04492
        
       | tshaddox wrote:
       | > For nearly a century, astronomers have known that the universe
       | is expanding, because the galaxies that we can see around us
       | through telescopes are all rushing away. Riess studied how they
       | moved. He very carefully measured the distance of each one from
       | Earth, and when all the data came together, in 1998, the results
       | surprised him. They were "shocking even," he told his colleagues
       | in a flustered email that he sent on the eve of his honeymoon. A
       | striking relationship had emerged: The farther away that galaxies
       | were, the faster they were receding. This "immediately suggested
       | a profound conclusion," he said in his Nobel Prize lecture.
       | Something is causing the expansion of the universe to accelerate.
       | 
       | I'm quite confused by this early paragraph. It seems to be
       | claiming that Hubble's law was discovered in 1998 by Adam Riess,
       | instead of in the 1920s by Edwin Hubble (and others).
        
         | tinix wrote:
         | The Hubble Tension is not Hubble's constant.
        
         | dataflow wrote:
         | I think they're talking acceleration, not velocity? Hubble's
         | law says more distant galaxies are receding faster than slower
         | ones at some calculable rate, but it doesn't say the rate at
         | which they're doing that is accelerating over time. (I do find
         | it kind of shocking that one can prove this without observing
         | the same thing over a prolonged period of time.)
        
         | marcellus23 wrote:
         | Disclaimer that I'm not an astronomer and might be totally
         | wrong, but from some quick searching, it seems like the article
         | is conflating Hubble's discovery and Riess's. Hubble's law can
         | be true even if the expansion of the universe is slowing down,
         | not speeding up: a galaxy twice as far away as another can be
         | receding at twice the speed, even if that speed is decreasing
         | over time. But it seems like Riess's discovery is that the
         | speed is actually _increasing_ over time. It 's related to
         | Hubble's law but not the same thing.
         | 
         | Frankly, the fact that I could find that out with 2 minutes of
         | reading Wikipedia reflects pretty poorly on the author.
        
         | CGMthrowaway wrote:
         | It's the second derivative.
         | 
         | Riess et al's findings showed that galaxies farther away are
         | not just receding faster (as Hubble's Law already described),
         | but that the rate of expansion itself is increasing over time.
         | This discovery suggested the presence of a mysterious force,
         | now called dark energy, driving this acceleration.
         | 
         | This was unexpected because most astronomers at the time
         | thought the expansion should be slowing down due to
         | gravitational attraction between galaxies.
        
           | mr_mitm wrote:
           | Yes, but the article is indeed unclear about this. In
           | particular this line:
           | 
           | >The farther away that galaxies were, the faster they were
           | receding.
           | 
           | This is already the case in Hubble's law, which says that the
           | velocity is proportional to the distance. Hubble's constant
           | is the proportionality constant and thus the expansion rate.
           | 
           | Riess found that the Hubble constant is not constant.
           | Instead, the expansion rate is increasing over time.
        
             | mathattack wrote:
             | How many journalism majors did you encounter in undergrad
             | who knew how to apply second derivatives to Physics
             | problems? (I've given up on pop science articles - podcasts
             | with experts interviewing experts has a much higher signal
             | to noise ratio)
        
               | tshaddox wrote:
               | I wouldn't expect a journalist to _apply_ second
               | derivatives, but I would expect them to talk to
               | physicists and _accurately report_ what the physicists
               | say. Of course, I have no real physics or astronomy
               | education beyond high school, but I can recognize a
               | textbook one-line description of Hubble 's law and know
               | that something's off when it's being attributed to a guy
               | in 1998.
        
               | freedomben wrote:
               | I have quite low expectations of journalists when it
               | comes to anything technical or that requires expertise,
               | but I _do_ generally think highly of the Atlantic and
               | think they are generally a lot better than average at it.
               | I 'm a disappointed in this one though.
        
       | daedrdev wrote:
       | They may certainly have a point, but many Nobel Prize winners do
       | have a track record of going off the deep end which is something
       | to keep in mind when an article tries to justify their points
       | using Noble Prizes
       | 
       | edit: I'm just trying to say that "Having a Nobel Prize" doesn't
       | mean they are an authority on subjects they talk about since many
       | wen't on to promote homeopathy, aliens, believed aids wasn't
       | caused by HIV, don't believe in climate change, etc."
        
         | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
         | Eh, I think that is just the result of more attention/funding.
         | Plenty of scientists have wacky ideas (very much encouraged!)
         | that do not pan out upon further investigation. If you are a no
         | name lab that tries a novel idea that fails, nobody knows or
         | cares. "Celebrity" scientist with a failed idea and now you are
         | off the deep end.
        
         | api wrote:
         | The blaming of cliques of scientists for rejecting alternate
         | ideas was cliche and kind of a red flag.
         | 
         | That does happen, of course. Science is conservative because if
         | we have a theory that is a good fit to the data it should take
         | a lot of evidence to unseat that theory and the new one must
         | _also_ fit all the data the old one did. (Unless some data was
         | wrong, but that also takes evidence.)
         | 
         | But this is also something every crank says, and loudly. The
         | more obsessed and loud someone is with a conspiracy against
         | them the more they sound like a crank.
         | 
         | Was Einstein or quantum theory instantly rejected and held down
         | forever by a conspiracy? Not really. There were skeptics but I
         | seem to recall these ideas taking hold pretty fast because they
         | fit a lot of anomalous data very well.
        
           | jshaqaw wrote:
           | Agreed. People point to the edge cases where orthodoxy and
           | conformity crushed the brilliant innovator but for every one
           | of those there are 1000 cranks or embittered dead end
           | researchers claiming that only a conspiracy prevented their
           | genius from being recognized.
        
             | indigodaddy wrote:
             | This sort of argument implies that Riess must have turned
             | into a crank since his Nobel prize winning turn... Seems
             | unlikely though doesn't it?
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | Having hesitancy of any new theory that directly conflicts
           | with the known/accepted theories is not a bad thing. Telling
           | someone that their theory is so different than what everyone
           | else thinks that they might want to go back and double/triple
           | check just in case someone forgot to carry a one or something
           | else simple/embarrassing is just a CYA bit of advice. Other
           | quotes like "extraordinary claims require extraordinary
           | evidence" would also be apropos.
        
         | jerf wrote:
         | If even getting a Nobel Prize isn't enough to protect someone
         | from being accused of deviating from orthodoxy and therefore
         | _ipso facto_ "off the deep end", then the entire claim the
         | science apparatus makes about being all about ideas and not
         | about orthodoxy is falsified, and all subsequent beliefs in a
         | belief net based on that proposition need to be updated
         | accordingly.
        
           | staunton wrote:
           | "Being all about ideas" implies that whether someone has a
           | Nobel prize should play a very small role when evaluating an
           | idea. If the idea sounds implausible, it's OK to say so, no
           | matter whose idea it is. Some people will still look into it.
        
           | eej71 wrote:
           | I think this is a misunderstanding of the underlying issue.
           | 
           | It isn't about protection from straying from some level of
           | orthodoxy. It's about people who are incredibly brilliant in
           | one area of their life - and yet be incredibly dumb in
           | another. I've always seen Linus Pauling as an interesting
           | example of this. Brilliant in some ways, but going all in on
           | Vitamin C is just weird.
           | 
           | I see the basic claim as - sometimes these prizes - well
           | intentioned as they are - may lift critical guard rails that
           | unintentionally let them drive off into their weeds. They go
           | deeper and harder into the weeds because the prestige that
           | comes with these prizes creates a halo effect that blunts or
           | hides critical criticism that can no longer reach them.
        
           | kadoban wrote:
           | Someone getting the Nobel Prize and then being assumed
           | correct from then on would be approximately the opposite of
           | science.
           | 
           | They can put their ideas out there, and people can evaluate
           | them on their merits just fine, with maybe a bias towards the
           | ideas being interesting due to the source. What's wrong with
           | that?
        
           | daedrdev wrote:
           | I mean some of these are just easily problematic and wrong,
           | so its better to take their good ideas and not the rest.
           | 
           | Like these are just 2 cases of a number of examples
           | 
           | 1993 chemistry doesn't believe AIDS is caused by HIV, doesn't
           | believe in Climate Chiange, believes in astrology, thinks he
           | talked to talking alien racoon
           | 
           | 2008 medicine founded their own journal and claimed viruses
           | emitted radio waves to arrange water in nanostructure that
           | let you teleport DNA though Homeopathy and also claims
           | vaccines cause autism.
        
         | CGMthrowaway wrote:
         | Is there a correlation between being born in Superfund sites
         | and being a Nobel Prize winner?
        
         | bsoles wrote:
         | Reminds me of Roger Penrose more recently. When Nobel Prize
         | winners start making YouTube rounds, you have a good indicator
         | of someone going of the deep end. Thank God, Eric Weinstein
         | doesn't have a Nobel Prize...
        
           | gamma42 wrote:
           | How has Penrose gone off the deep end?
        
             | bsoles wrote:
             | His theories about quantum consciousness...
        
               | nimih wrote:
               | Penrose published "The Emperor's New Mind" some 16 years
               | before YouTube existed as a website, so you may need to
               | clarify which particular theories about quantum
               | consciousness you're referring to.
        
         | ryandamm wrote:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_disease
         | 
         | This is a decently-well documented observation. (I hesitate to
         | call it a "phenomenon" as that would imply an actual casual
         | mechanism.)
        
       | gaoshan wrote:
       | The description of how the universe is expanding sounds like how
       | an explosion expands. Rapidly then slower until it settles down
       | and stops (with no collapse at the end, just matter in place
       | where it landed). I wonder if that could be the closest analogy?
        
         | BurningFrog wrote:
         | Riess' original discovery is the opposite: The universe expands
         | faster and faster over time.
        
         | pavlov wrote:
         | An explosion has a center. I'm not a cosmologist, but my
         | understanding is that the universe expands everywhere and at a
         | rate that's in fact accelerating rather than slowing down.
        
           | dylan604 wrote:
           | What does the has a center comment have to do with the rest
           | of the comment? The big bang had a center too. That doesn't
           | mean anything in the context though.
        
             | Aloisius wrote:
             | I thought the big bang had no center because there is no
             | edge. Rather expansion was of space itself that happened
             | everywhere.
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | No, it's not space itself. Relative to what would it
               | expand? It's galaxies moving away from one another, which
               | necessarily increases the space between them.
               | 
               | See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansion_of_the_
               | universe#Expa...
        
             | meroes wrote:
             | I don't think the big bang or the universe ever had a
             | center.
        
             | mr_mitm wrote:
             | The other two sibling comments expressed some doubt, but I
             | can tell you with absolute certainty that in the standard
             | model, and to the best of our knowledge in reality, the big
             | bang did not have a center.
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | This makes no sense to me. Are we saying the universe
               | existed before the big bang? The big bang went boom and
               | everything started expanding from it. How is it not the
               | center?
        
               | mr_mitm wrote:
               | No, we are not saying that. We are saying that the
               | entirety of space - and not just its contents - have been
               | compressed into a point (ignoring quantum gravity for
               | now). Any two points in space have been arbitrarily close
               | if you play the movie backwards sufficiently close to the
               | first moment.
        
               | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
               | It's a 4D spacetime, not a 3D space.
               | 
               | Start with a tiny sphere. Expand it. The sphere gets
               | bigger, but no point on the 2D-like surface is the
               | centre.
               | 
               | It's like that, but the surface is a 4D spacetime.
               | 
               | You can't use your imagination to visualise this. But you
               | can use math to describe it.
               | 
               | Whether there's some kind of ultradimensional hypercentre
               | is a different question. Even if there was, it wouldn't
               | be accessible from this universe.
               | 
               | And don't forget we don't have a clue what spacetime is.
               | Relativity has some nice descriptions of what it does,
               | but there's no _fundamental_ explanation of how the
               | universe generates the phenomena we call position, time,
               | and distance.
        
               | Tadpole9181 wrote:
               | The Big Bang is not a physical explosion and the universe
               | is not a balloon. All space was condensed together, but
               | space is (to our current ability to measure it)
               | topologically flat and infinite. It was still infinitely
               | big in every dimension, it was just unfathomably dense.
               | 
               | The expansion that's occurring is that the space
               | _between_ things is growing. But it 's every space
               | between everything all at once, everywhere.
               | 
               | There is no physical equivalent.
        
               | layer8 wrote:
               | We observe that the matter density in the universe is
               | decreasing with time. As far as we know, this looks the
               | same from every point in the universe: galaxies move away
               | from each other. The speed with which they move away from
               | each other doesn't depend on where in the universe you
               | are. (It only depends on the time, as the speed is slowly
               | increasing.) There is no center from which they move away
               | from. Or alternatively, every point in the universe is
               | such a center. It's like when zooming into a grid. It
               | doesn't matter at which point of the grid you zoom in,
               | the grid expands in the same way regardless. The grid has
               | no center, and also no boundary.
               | 
               | Due to the laws of general relativity, extrapolating that
               | observation into the past, the implication is that the
               | matter in the universe was ever denser the further you go
               | into past. Furthermore, there is a point in time where it
               | becomes infinitely dense. This is what we call the Big
               | Bang. Because our equations break down at that point, we
               | don't know what happened at that point in time, or
               | before, or whether there was a before. However,
               | observational evidence like the cosmic microwave
               | background strongly support the theory: https://en.wikipe
               | dia.org/wiki/Big_Bang#Observational_evidenc...
               | 
               | Note that "infinitely dense" does _not_ imply that the
               | universe shrinks to a single point at that time. Rather,
               | it was infinitely dense at every point. (Again, this is
               | like zooming out from an infinite grid infinitely far.
               | The grid always remains infinitely large.) This means
               | that the Big Bang happened everywhere at once. It's a
               | point in time, not a location.
        
       | pavel_lishin wrote:
       | All of this is wildly exciting - I wonder if this is how people
       | in the 1800s and 1930s felt like, as electricity and nuclear
       | science was going through its hey-day.
        
         | spauldo wrote:
         | Your time's a bit off - electrification didn't really take off
         | until the early 20th century and nuclear applications outside
         | of weapons until the 1950s and 1960s.
         | 
         | My grandmother grew up when cars were scarce, electric wires
         | were stapled to the wall, and indoor plumbing was for city
         | folk. She hit a certain level of technological advancement and
         | then just stopped, probably around the 1980s. She died last
         | year, having never used the Internet or a computer and still
         | using a console TV (with an adapter box installed by the cable
         | company).
        
       | cogogo wrote:
       | Reminded me of this thread from a couple of days ago. Interesting
       | that both Riess and Gough argue there's a sociological phenomenon
       | amongst cosmologists. Though who knows what Riess might think of
       | the "blowtorch theory."
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44115973
        
         | snowwrestler wrote:
         | Every scientist knows there is a sociological component to the
         | practice of science. This is not a novel or noteworthy
         | observation and I don't think Riess was intending it to be.
        
           | mr_mitm wrote:
           | Also, every cosmologist knows the standard model is not the
           | final answer. I think the author is really trying to
           | overstate the controversy.
        
             | cogogo wrote:
             | But many non-cosmologists like me aren't so aware. Many of
             | us learned basic physics where the standard model is
             | treated as a given. Or the standard if you don't mind dad
             | jokes.
        
           | cogogo wrote:
           | I happen to not be a scientist but found the observation
           | interesting given the overlapping subject matter. Especially
           | given the stark differences in training/background. E.g.
           | scientist/not scientist.
        
       | pixelpoet wrote:
       | > He compared the theory to an egg that is breaking. "It's not
       | going to cleave neatly in one place," he said. "You would expect
       | to see multiple cracks opening up."
       | 
       | Someone needs to send him an
       | https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Eierschalensollbruchstellenve...
        
         | ge96 wrote:
         | interesting was trying to figure out how it works looks like
         | the metal bead you raise and drop it
        
           | WastedCucumber wrote:
           | Genau!
        
         | kylecazar wrote:
         | "It is easier for a cannibal to enter the Kingdom of Heaven
         | through the eye of a rich man's needle than it is for any other
         | foreigner to read the terrible German script."
         | 
         | Mark Twain
        
           | wahern wrote:
           | I only recently learned what this is actually referring to,
           | after scouring archive.org for Spanish, French, and German
           | language versions of Lingua Latina per se Illustrata. Twain
           | is being perfectly literal, though these days we'd narrow the
           | debate to typeface as people rarely handwrite these days.
           | Example: https://archive.org/details/erstesdeutsches00wormgoo
           | g/page/n... When first opening that book, I was like, "what
           | kind of inanity is this!?" The same author wrote Spanish and
           | French versions of that book, but both were printed using a
           | perfectly familiar Latin typeface. After reading about the
           | issue, I can sort of appreciate why that typeface was chosen,
           | though it definitely steepens the learning curve.
           | 
           | There was a centuries long debate in Germany (and Germanic
           | lands) over this issue. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant
           | iqua%E2%80%93Fraktur_disput... for info about the debate over
           | typeface specifically. TL;DR: The Nazis resolved the dispute
           | by fiat, in an odd twist of history settling on the Latin
           | typeface.
           | 
           | (For typeface enthusiasts, I apologize for any poor use of
           | terminology.)
        
             | pixelpoet wrote:
             | These days, even here in Germany, Fraktur script is mainly
             | used to determine when you're finally doing serious
             | mathematics.
        
             | djmips wrote:
             | I remember that font from Walt Kelley's Pogo - used for the
             | undertaker vultures
        
       | lproven wrote:
       | Paywall bypassed:
       | 
       | https://archive.ph/51R4k
        
       | otherayden wrote:
       | Archive link using a tool I built to automatically redirect to
       | archive links :)
       | 
       | https://unbloq.us/https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archiv...
        
       | zvorygin wrote:
       | I wish the journalist asked the leading scientists in the field
       | "Before you learned of the Hubble tension, what did you think the
       | odds were of the standard model being correct? And after?"
       | 
       | And everything would be much clearer.
        
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