[HN Gopher] Human coders are still better than LLMs
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Human coders are still better than LLMs
        
       Author : longwave
       Score  : 282 points
       Date   : 2025-05-29 16:41 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (antirez.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (antirez.com)
        
       | RayMan1 wrote:
       | of course they are.
        
       | vouaobrasil wrote:
       | The question is, for how long?
        
         | jppittma wrote:
         | It's really gonna depend on the project. When my hobby project
         | was greenfield, the AI was way better than I am. It was (still
         | is) more knowledgable about the standards that govern the field
         | and about low level interface details. It can shit out a bunch
         | of code that relies on knowing these details in
         | seconds/minutes, rather than hours/days.
         | 
         | Now that the project has grown and all that stuff is hammered
         | out, it can't seem to consistently write code that compiles.
         | It's very tunnel visioned on the specific file its generating,
         | rather than where that fits in the context of what/how we're
         | building what we're building.
        
           | sixQuarks wrote:
           | Again, the question is for how long
        
           | jonator wrote:
           | We can slightly squeeze more juice out of them with larger
           | projects by providing better context, docs, examples of what
           | we want, background knowledge, etc.
           | 
           | Like people, LLMs don't know what they don't know (about your
           | project).
        
         | sixQuarks wrote:
         | Exactly! We've been seeing more and more posts like this,
         | saying how AI will never take developer jobs or will never be
         | as good as coders. I think it's some sort of coping mechanism.
         | 
         | These posts are gonna look really silly in the not too distant
         | future.
         | 
         | I get it, spending countless hours honing your craft and
         | knowing that AI will soon make almost everything you learned
         | useless is very scary.
        
           | sofal wrote:
           | I'm constantly disappointed by how little I'm able to
           | delegate to AI after the unending promises that I'll be able
           | to delegate nearly 100% of what I do now "in the not too
           | distant future". It's tired impatience and merited skepticism
           | that you mistake for fear and coping. Just because people
           | aren't on the hype train with you doesn't mean they're
           | afraid.
        
             | vouaobrasil wrote:
             | Personally, I am. Lots of unusual skills I have, have
             | already been taken by AI. That's not to say I think I'm in
             | trouble, but I think it's sad I can't apply some of these
             | skills that I learned just a couple of years ago like audio
             | editing because AI does it now. Neither do I want to work
             | as an AI operator, which I find boring and depressing. So,
             | I've just moved onto something else, but it's still
             | discouraging.
             | 
             | Also, so many people said the same thing about chess when
             | the first chess programs came out. "It will never beat an
             | international master." Then, "it will never beat a
             | grandmaster." And Kasparov said, "it would never beat me or
             | Karpov."
             | 
             | Look where we are today. Can humanity adapt? Yes, probably.
             | But that new world IMO is worse than it is today, rather
             | lacking in dignity I'd say.
        
               | sofal wrote:
               | I don't acquire skills and apply them just to be able to
               | apply them. I use them to solve problems and create
               | things. My learned skills for processing audio are for
               | the purpose of getting the audio sounding the way I want
               | it to sound. If an AI can do that for me instead, that's
               | amazing and frees up my time to do other things or do a
               | lot more different audio things. None of this is scary to
               | me or impacts my personal dignity. I'm actually
               | constantly wishing that AI could help me do even more.
               | Honestly I'm not even sure what you mean by AI doing
               | audio editing, can I get some of that? That is some grunt
               | work I don't need more of.
        
               | vouaobrasil wrote:
               | I acquire skills to enjoy applying them, period. I'm less
               | concerned about the final result than about the process
               | to get there. That's the different between technical
               | types and artist types I suppose.
               | 
               | Edit: I also should say, we REALLY should distinguish
               | between tasks that you find enjoyable and tasks you find
               | just drudgery to get where you want to go. For you, audio
               | editing might be a drudgery but for me it's enjoyable.
               | For you, debugging might be fun but I hate it. Etc.
               | 
               | But the point is, if AI takes away everything which
               | people find enjoyable, then no one can pick and choose to
               | earn a living on those subset of tasks that they find
               | enjoyable because AI can do everything.
               | 
               | Programmers tend to assume that AI will just take the
               | boring tasks, because high-level software engineering is
               | what they enjoy and unlikely to be automated, but there's
               | a WHOLE world of people out there who enjoy other tasks
               | that can be automated by AI.
        
               | sofal wrote:
               | I can't tell whether I'm supposed to be the technical
               | type or the artist type in this analogy. In my music
               | making hobby, I'd like a good AI to help me mix, master,
               | or any number of things under my direction. I'm going to
               | be very particular about every aspect of the beat, but
               | maybe it could suggest some non-boring chord progressions
               | and I'll decide if I like one of them. My goal as an
               | artist is to express myself, and a good AI that can
               | faithfully take directions from me would help.
               | 
               | As a software engineer, I need to solve business
               | problems, and much of this requires code changes,
               | testing, deployments, all that stuff we all know. Again,
               | if a good AI could take on a lot of that work, maybe that
               | means I don't have to sit there in dependency hell and
               | fight arcane missing symbol errors for the rest of my
               | fucking career.
        
               | vouaobrasil wrote:
               | > Again, if a good AI could take on a lot of that work,
               | maybe that means I don't have to sit there in dependency
               | hell and fight arcane missing symbol errors for the rest
               | of my fucking career.
               | 
               | My argument really had nothing to do with you and your
               | hobby. It was that AI is signficantly modifying society
               | so that it will be hard for people to do what they like
               | to make money, because AI can do it.
               | 
               | If AI can solve some boring tasks for _you_ , that's fine
               | but the world doesn't revolve around your job or your
               | hobby. I'm talking about a large mass of people who enjoy
               | doing different things, who once were able to do those
               | things to make a living, but are finding it harder to do
               | so because tech companies have found a way to do all
               | those things because they could leverage their economies
               | of scale and massive resource pools to automate all that.
               | 
               | You are in a priveleged position, no doubt about it. But
               | plenty of people are talented and skilled at doing a
               | certain sort of creative work and the main thrust of
               | their work can be automated. It's not like your cushy job
               | where you can just automate a part of it and just become
               | more efficient, but rather it's that people just won't
               | have a job.
               | 
               | It's amazing how you can be so myopic to only think of
               | yourself and what AI can do for you when you are probably
               | in the top 5% of the world, rather than give one minute
               | to think of what AI is doing to others who don't have the
               | luxuries you have.
        
               | noslenwerdna wrote:
               | Everyone should do the tasks where they provide unique
               | value. You could make the same arguments you just made
               | for recorded music, automobiles, computers in general in
               | fact.
        
               | betenoire wrote:
               | I'm with you, I enjoy the craftsmanship of my trade. I'm
               | not relieved that I may not have to do it in the future,
               | I'm bummed that it feels like something I'm good at, and
               | is/was worth something, is being taken away.
               | 
               | I realize how lucky I am to even have a job that I
               | thoroughly enjoy, do well, and get paid well for. So I'm
               | not going to say "It's not fair!", but ... I'm bummed.
        
               | danielbln wrote:
               | You can still do those tasks, but the market value will
               | drop. Automatable work should always be automated,
               | because we best focus on things that can't be automated
               | yet and those gain more market value. Supply and demand
               | and all that. I do hope we have a collective plan about
               | what we do when everything is automated at some point.
               | Some form of UBI?
        
               | suddenlybananas wrote:
               | What do you mean that AI can do audio editing? I don't
               | think all sound engineers have been replaced.
        
             | sixQuarks wrote:
             | Yes. I know what you're referring to, but you can't ignore
             | the pace of improvement. I think within 2-3 years we will
             | have AI coding that can do anything a senior level coder
             | can do.
        
           | foobar83 wrote:
           | Nobody knows what the future holds, including you.
        
             | vouaobrasil wrote:
             | That is true, which is why we should be cautious instead of
             | careless.
        
         | spion wrote:
         | Vibe-wise, it seems like progress is slowing down and recent
         | models aren't substantially better than their predecessors. But
         | it would be interesting to take a well-trusted benchmark and
         | plot max_performance_until_date(foreach month). (Too bad aider
         | changed recently and there aren't many older models;
         | https://aider.chat/docs/leaderboards/by-release-date.html has
         | not been updated in a while with newer stuff, and the new
         | benchmark doesn't have the classic models such as 3.5, 3.5
         | turbo, 4, claude 3 opus)
        
           | vouaobrasil wrote:
           | I think that we can't expect continuous progress either,
           | though. Often in computer science it's more discrete, and
           | unexpected. Computer chess was basically stagnant until one
           | team, even the evolution of species often behaves in a
           | punctuated way rather than as a sum of many small
           | adaptations. I'm much more interested (worried) of what the
           | world will be like in 30 years, rather than in the next 5.
        
             | spion wrote:
             | Its hard to say. Historically new discoveries in AI often
             | generated great excitement and high expectations, followed
             | by some progress, then stalling, disillusionment and AI
             | winter. Maybe this time it will be different. Either way
             | what was achieved so far is already a huge deal.
        
       | mattnewton wrote:
       | This matches my experience. I actually think a fair amount of
       | value from LLM assistants to me is having a reasonably
       | intelligent rubber duck to talk to. Now the duck can occasionally
       | disagree and sometimes even refine.
       | 
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubber_duck_debugging
       | 
       | I think the big question everyone wants to skip right to and past
       | this conversation is, will this continue to be true 2 years from
       | now? I don't know how to answer that question.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | LLMs will still be this way 10 years from now.
         | 
         | But IDK if somebody won't create something new that gets
         | better. But there is no reason at all to extrapolate our
         | current AIs into something that solves programing. Whatever
         | constraints that new thing will have will be completely
         | unrelated to the current ones.
        
           | smokel wrote:
           | Stating this without any arguments is not very convincing.
           | 
           | Perhaps you remember that language models were completely
           | useless at coding some years ago, and now they can do quite a
           | lot of things, even if they are not perfect. That is
           | progress, and that does give reason to extrapolate.
           | 
           | Unless of course you mean something very special with
           | "solving programming".
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | Why state the same arguments everybody has been repeating
             | for ages?
             | 
             | LLMs can only give you code that somebody has wrote before.
             | This is inherent. This is useful for a bunch of stuff, but
             | that bunch won't change if OpenAI decides to spend the GDP
             | of Germany training one instead of Costa Rica.
        
               | rhubarbtree wrote:
               | That's not true. LLMs are great translators, they can
               | translate ideas to code. And that doesn't mean it has to
               | be recalling previously seen text.
        
               | Epa095 wrote:
               | First, how much of coding is really never done before?
               | 
               | And secondly, what you say are false (at least if taken
               | literally). I can create a new programming language, give
               | the definition of it in the prompt, ask it to code
               | something in my language, and expect something out. It
               | might even work.
        
               | apwell23 wrote:
               | > how much of coding is really never done before?
               | 
               | A lot because we use libraries for 'done frequently
               | before' code. i don't generate a database driver for my
               | webapp with llm.
        
               | Epa095 wrote:
               | We use libraries for SOME of the 'done frequently' code.
               | 
               | But how much of enterprise programming is 'get some data
               | from a database, show it on a Web page (or gui), store
               | some data in the database', with variants?
               | 
               | It makes sense that we have libraries for abstraction
               | away some common things. But it also makes sense that we
               | can't abstract away everything we do multiple times,
               | because at some point it just becomes so abstract that
               | it's easier to write it yourself than to try to configure
               | some library. Does not mean that it's not a variant of
               | something done before.
        
               | apwell23 wrote:
               | > it's easier to write it yourself than to try to
               | configure some library
               | 
               | yeah unfortunately LLM will make this worse. Why abstract
               | when you can generate.
               | 
               | I am already seeing this a lot at work :(
        
               | sunrunner wrote:
               | > we can't abstract away everything we do multiple times
               | 
               | I think there's a fundamental truth about any code that's
               | written which is that it exists on some level of
               | specificity, or to put it in other words, a set of
               | decisions have been made about _how_ something should
               | work (in the space of what _could_ work) while some
               | decisions have been left open to the user.
               | 
               | Every library that is used is essentially this. Database
               | driver? Underlying I/O decisions are probably abstracted
               | away already (think Netty vs Mina), and decisions on how
               | to manage connections, protocol handling, bind variables,
               | etc. are made by the library, while questions remain for
               | things like which specific tables and columns should be
               | referenced. This makes the library reusable for this task
               | _as long as you 're fine with the underlying decisions_.
               | 
               | Once you get to the question of _which specific data is
               | shown on a page_ the decisions are closer to the human
               | side of how we've arbitrarily chosen to organise things
               | in this specific thousandth-iteration of an e-commerce
               | application.
               | 
               | The devil is in the details (even if you know the insides
               | of the devil aren't really any different).
        
               | lupire wrote:
               | Cue Haskell gang "Design patterns are workarounds for
               | weaknesses in your language".
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | > I can create a new programming language, give the
               | definition of it in the prompt, ask it to code something
               | in my language, and expect something out. It might even
               | work.
               | 
               | I literally just pointed out the same time without having
               | seen your comment.
               | 
               | Second this. I've done this several times, and it can
               | handle it well. Already GPT3.5 could easily reason about
               | hypothetical languages given a grammar or a loose
               | description.
               | 
               | I find it absolutely bizarre that people still hold on to
               | this notion that these languages can't do anything new,
               | because it feels implausible that they have _tried_ given
               | how well it works.
        
               | nahbruheem wrote:
               | Generating unseen code is not hard.
               | 
               | Set rules on what's valid, which most languages already
               | do; omit generation of known code; generate everything
               | else
               | 
               | The computer does the work, programmers don't have to
               | think it up.
               | 
               | A typed language example to explain; generate valid func
               | sigs
               | 
               | func f(int1, int2) return int{}
               | 
               | If that's our only func sig in our starting set then it
               | makes it obvious
               | 
               | Well relative to our tiny starter set func f(int1, int2,
               | int3) return int{} is novel
               | 
               | This Redis post is about fixing a prior decision of a
               | random programmer. A linguistics decision.
               | 
               | That's why LLMs seem worse than programmers because we
               | make linguistics decisions that fit social idioms.
               | 
               | If we just want to generate all the never before seen in
               | this model code we don't need a programmer. If we need to
               | abide laws of a flexible language nature, that's what a
               | programmer is for; compose not just code by compliance
               | with ground truth.
               | 
               | That antirez is good at Redis is a bias since he has
               | context unseen by the LLM. Curious how well antirez would
               | do with an entirely machine generated Redis-clone that
               | was merely guided by experts. Would his intuition for
               | Redis' implementation be useful to a completely unknown
               | implementation?
               | 
               | He'd make a lot of newb errors and need mentorship, I'm
               | guessing.
        
               | nprateem wrote:
               | I think we're hoping for more than the 'infinite monkeys
               | bashing out semantically correct code' approach.
        
               | nahbruheem wrote:
               | Ok, define what means and make it. Then as soon as you do
               | realize you run into Godel's understanding your machine
               | doesn't solve problems related to its own existence and
               | needs outside help. So you need to generate that yet
               | unseen solution that lacks context for understanding
               | itself... repeat and see it's exactly generating one yet
               | unseen layer of logic after another.
               | 
               | Read the article; his younger self failed to see logic
               | needed now. Add that onion peel. No such thing as perfect
               | clairvoyance.
               | 
               | Even Yann LeCun's energy based models driving robots have
               | the same experience problem.
               | 
               | Make a computer that can observe all of the past and
               | future.
               | 
               | Without perfect knowledge our robots will fail to predict
               | some composition of space time before they can adapt.
               | 
               | So there's no probe we can launch that's forever and
               | generally able to survive with our best guess when
               | launched.
               | 
               | More people need to study physical experiments and
               | physics and not the semantic rigor of academia. No matter
               | how many ideas we imagine there is no violating physics.
               | 
               | Pop culture seems to have people feeling starship
               | Enterprise is just about to launch from dry dock.
        
               | dttze wrote:
               | Incoherent rambling.
        
               | JoshCole wrote:
               | > LLMs can only give you code that somebody has wrote
               | before.
               | 
               | This premise is false. It is fundamentally equivalent to
               | the claim that a language model being trained on a
               | dataset: ["ABA", "ABB"] would be unable to generate,
               | given input "B" the string "BAB" or "BAA".
        
               | 1718627440 wrote:
               | Isn't the claim, that it will never make up "C"?
        
               | JoshCole wrote:
               | They don't claim that. They say LLMs only generate text
               | someone has written. Another way you could refute their
               | premise was by showing the existence of AI-created
               | programs for which someone isn't a valid description of
               | the writer (e.g., from evolutionary algorithms) then
               | training a network on that data such that it can output
               | it. It is just as trivial a way to prove that the premise
               | is false.
               | 
               | Your claim here is slightly different.
               | 
               | You're claiming that if a token isn't supported, it can't
               | be output [1]. But we can easily disprove this by adding
               | minimal support for all tokens, making C appear in
               | theory. Such support addition shows up all the time in AI
               | literature [2].
               | 
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_(mathematics)
               | 
               | [2]: In some regimes, like game theoretic learning,
               | support is baked into the solving algorithms explicitly
               | during the learning stage. In others, like reinforcement
               | learning, its accomplished by making the policy a
               | function of two objectives, one an exploration objective,
               | another an exploitation objective. That existing cross
               | pollination already occurs between LLMs in the pre-
               | trained unsupervised regime and LLMs in the post-training
               | fine-tuning via forms of reinforcement learning regime
               | should cause someone to hesitate to claim that such
               | support addition is unreasonable if they are versed in ML
               | literature.
               | 
               | Edit:
               | 
               | Got downvoted, so I figure maybe people don't understand.
               | Here is the simple counterexample. Consider an evaluator
               | that gives rewards: F("AAC") = 1, all other inputs = 0.
               | Consider a tokenization that defines "A", "B", "C" as
               | tokens, but a training dataset from which the letter C is
               | excluded but the item "AAA" is present.
               | 
               | After training "AAA" exists in the output space of the
               | language model, but "AAC" does not. Without support,
               | without exploration, if you train the language model
               | against the reinforcement learning reward model of F, you
               | might get no ability to output "C", but with support, the
               | sequence "AAC" can be generated and give a reward. Now
               | actually do this. You get a new language model. Since
               | "AAC" was rewarded, it is now a thing within the space of
               | the LLM outputs. Yet it doesn't appear in the training
               | dataset and there are many reward models F for which no
               | person will ever have had to output the string "AAC" in
               | order for the reward model to give a reward for it.
               | 
               | It follows that "C" can appear even though "C" does not
               | appear in the training data.
        
               | gitaarik wrote:
               | I think it's not just token support, it's also having a
               | understanding of certain concepts that allows you to
               | arrive at new points like C, D, E, etc. But LLM's don't
               | have an understanding of things, they are statistical
               | models that predict what statistically is most likely
               | following the input that you give it. But that that will
               | always be based on already existing data that is fed into
               | the model. It can produce "new" stuff only by combining
               | the "old" stuff in new ways, but it can't "think" of
               | something entirety conceptionally new, because it doesn't
               | really "think".
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | > LLMs can only give you code that somebody has wrote
               | before. This is inherent.
               | 
               | This is trivial to prove to be false.
               | 
               | Invent a programming language that does not exist.
               | Describe its semantics to an LLM. Ask it to write a
               | program to solve a problem in that language. It will not
               | always work, but it will work often enough to demonstrate
               | that they are very much capable of writing code that has
               | never been written before.
               | 
               | The first time I tried this was with GPT3.5, and I had it
               | write code in an unholy combination of Ruby and INTERCAL,
               | and it had no problems doing that.
               | 
               | Similarly giving it a grammar of a hypothetical language,
               | and asking it to generate valid text in a language that
               | has not existed before also works reasonably well.
               | 
               | This notion that LLMs only spit out things that has been
               | written before might have been reasonable to believe a
               | few years ago, but it hasn't been a reasonable position
               | to hold for a long time at this point.
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | Progress sure, but the rate the've improved hasn't been
             | particularly fast _recently_.
             | 
             | Programming has become vastly more efficient in terms of
             | programmer effort over decades, but making some aspects of
             | the job more efficient just means all your effort it spent
             | on what didn't improve.
        
               | mirsadm wrote:
               | The latest batch of LLMs has been getting worse in my
               | opinion. Claude in particular seems to be going backwards
               | with every release. The verbosity of the answers is
               | infuriating. You ask it a simple question and it starts
               | by inventing the universe, poorly
        
               | lexandstuff wrote:
               | People seem to have forgotten how good the 2023 GPT-4
               | really was at coding tasks.
        
             | apwell23 wrote:
             | > Perhaps you remember that language models were completely
             | useless at coding some years ago
             | 
             | no i don't remember that. They are doing similar things now
             | that they did 3 yrs ago. They were still a decent rubber
             | duck 3 yrs ago.
        
               | vidarh wrote:
               | And 6 years ago GPT2 had just been released. You're being
               | obtuse by interpreting "some years" as specifically 3.
        
             | bigstrat2003 wrote:
             | > Perhaps you remember that language models were completely
             | useless at coding some years ago, and now they can do quite
             | a lot of things, even if they are not perfect.
             | 
             | IMO, they're still useless today, with the only progress
             | being that they can produce a more convincing facade of
             | usefulness. I wouldn't call that very meaningful progress.
        
         | _tom_ wrote:
         | For me, it's a bit like pair programming. I have someone to
         | discuss ideas with. Someone to review my code and suggest
         | alternative approaches. Some one that uses different feature
         | than I do, so I learn from them.
        
           | platevoltage wrote:
           | This is how I use it too. It's great at quickly answering
           | questions. I find it particularly useful if I have to work
           | with a language of framework that I'm not fully experienced
           | in.
        
             | 12_throw_away wrote:
             | > I find it particularly useful if I have to work with a
             | language of framework that I'm not fully experienced in
             | 
             | Yep - my number 1 use case for LLMs is as a template and
             | example generator. It actually seems like a fairly
             | reasonable use for probabilistic text generation!
        
           | traceroute66 wrote:
           | I guess if you enjoy programming with someone you can never
           | really trust, then yeah, sure, its "a bit like" pairs
           | programming.
        
         | gerad wrote:
         | It's like chess. Humans are better for now, they won't be
         | forever, but humans plus software is going to better than
         | either alone for a long time.
        
           | vFunct wrote:
           | No guarantee that will happen. LLMs are still statistically
           | based. It's not going to give you edgier ideas, like filling
           | a glass of wine to the rim.
           | 
           | Use them for the 90% of your repetitive uncreative work. The
           | last 10% is up to you.
        
             | skydhash wrote:
             | The pain of that 90% work is how you get libraries and
             | framework. Imagine having many different implementation of
             | sorting algorithms inside your codebase.
        
           | apwell23 wrote:
           | its not like chess
        
           | kelseydh wrote:
           | The time where humans + computers in chess were better than
           | just computers was not a long time. That era ended well over
           | a decade ago. Might have been true for only 3-5 years.
        
             | qsort wrote:
             | Unrelated to the broader discussion, but that's an artifact
             | of the time control. Humans add nothing to Stockfish in a
             | 90+30 game, but correspondence chess, for instance, is
             | played with modern engines and still has competitive
             | interest.
        
               | dwohnitmok wrote:
               | It is not clear to me whether human input really matters
               | in correspondence chess at this point either.
               | 
               | I mused about this several years ago and still haven't
               | really gotten a clear answer one way or the other.
               | 
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33022581
        
           | LandR wrote:
           | What do you mean? Chess engines are incredibly far ahead of
           | humans right now.
           | 
           | Even a moderately powered machine running stockfish will
           | destroy human super gms.
           | 
           | Sorry, after reading replies to this post i think I've
           | misunderstood what you meant :)
        
             | seadan83 wrote:
             | The phrasing was perhaps a bit odd. For a while, humans
             | were better at Chess, until they weren't. OP is
             | hypothesizing it will be a similar situation for
             | programming. To boot, it was hard to believe for a long
             | time that computers would ever be better than a humans at
             | chess.
        
             | hollerith wrote:
             | I think he knows that. There was a period from the early
             | 1950s (when people first started writing chess-playing
             | software) to 1997 when humans were better at chess than
             | computers were, and I think he is saying that we are still
             | in the analogous period for the skill of programming.
             | 
             | But he should've know that people would jump at the
             | opportunity to contradict him and should've written his
             | comment so as not to admit such an easily-contradictable
             | interpretation.
        
               | LandR wrote:
               | Yes, amended my post. I understand what he was saying
               | now. Thanks.
               | 
               | Wasn't trying to just be contradictory or arsey
        
           | seadan83 wrote:
           | > It's like chess. Humans are better for now, they won't be
           | forever
           | 
           | This is not an obviously true statement. There needs to be
           | proof that there are no limiting factors that are
           | computationally impossible to overcome. It's like watching a
           | growing child, grow from 3 feet to 4 feet, and then saying
           | "soon, this child will be the tallest person alive."
        
             | overfeed wrote:
             | One of my favourite XKCD comics is about extrapolation
             | https://xkcd.com/605/
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | It's a damning assertive duck, completely out of proportion to
         | its competence.
         | 
         | I've seen enough people led astray by talking to it.
        
           | foxyv wrote:
           | Same here. When I'm teaching coding I've noticed that LLMs
           | will confuse the heck out of students. They will accept what
           | it suggests without realizing that it is suggesting nonsense.
        
             | cogogo wrote:
             | I'm self taught and don't code that much but I feel like I
             | benefit a ton from LLMs giving me specific answers to
             | questions that would take me a lot of time to figure out
             | with documentation and stack overflow. Or even generating
             | snippets that I can evaluate whether or not will work.
             | 
             | But I actually can't imagine how you can teach someone to
             | code if they have access to an LLM from day one. It's too
             | easy to take the easy route and you lose the critical
             | thinking and problem solving skills required to code in the
             | first place and to actually make an LLM useful in the
             | second. Best of luck to you... it's a weird time for a lot
             | of things.
             | 
             | *edit them/they
        
             | chucksmash wrote:
             | Tbf, there's a phase of learning to code where everything
             | is pretty much an incantation you learn because someone
             | told you "just trust me." You encounter "here's how to make
             | the computer print text in Python" before you would ever
             | discuss strings or defining and invoking functions, for
             | instance. To get your start you kind of have to just accept
             | some stuff uncritically.
             | 
             | It's hard to remember what it was like to be in that phase.
             | Once simple things like using variables are second nature,
             | it's difficult to put yourself back into the shoes of
             | someone who doesn't understand the use of a variable yet.
        
               | eszed wrote:
               | Yeah, and accepting the LLM uncritically* is exactly what
               | you _shouldn 't_ do in any non-trivial context.
               | 
               | But, as a sibling poster pointed out: _for now_.
        
               | tharkun__ wrote:
               | Fair enough on 'cutting the learning tree' at some points
               | i.e. ignoring that you don't understand yet why something
               | works/does what it does. We (should) keep doing that
               | later on in life as well.
               | 
               | But unless you teach a kid that's never done any math
               | where `x` was a thing to program, what's so hard about
               | understanding the concept of a variable in programming?
        
             | XorNot wrote:
             | This was what promptly led me to turning off Jetbrains AI
             | assistant: the multiline completion was incredibly
             | distracting to my chain of thought, particularly when it
             | works suggest things that looked right but weren't.
             | Stopping and parsing the suggestion to realize if it was
             | right or wrong would completely kill my flow.
        
           | klntsky wrote:
           | I would argue that they are never led astray by chatting, but
           | rather by accepting the projection of their own prompt passed
           | through the model as some kind of truth.
           | 
           | When talking with reasonable people, they have an intuition
           | of what you want even if you don't say it, because there is a
           | lot of non-verbal context. LLMs lack the ability to
           | understand the person, but behave as if they had it.
        
             | marcosdumay wrote:
             | Most of the times, people are led astray by following
             | average advice on exceptional circumstances.
             | 
             | People with a minimum amount of expertise stop asking for
             | advice for average circumstances very quickly.
        
               | sho_hn wrote:
               | This is right on the money. I use LLMs when I am
               | reasonably confident the problem I am asking it is well-
               | represented in the training data set and well within its
               | capabilities (this has increased over time).
               | 
               | This means I use it as a typing accelerator when I
               | already know what I want most of the time, not for
               | _advice_.
               | 
               | As an exploratory tool sometimes, when I am sure others
               | have solved a problem frequently, to have it regurgitate
               | the average solution back at me and take a look. In those
               | situations I never accept the diff as-is and do the
               | integration manually though, to make sure my brain still
               | learns along and I still add the solution to my own
               | mental toolbox.
        
             | sigmoid10 wrote:
             | It's mostly a question of experience. I've been writing
             | software long enough that when I give chat models some code
             | and a problem, I can immediately tell if they understood it
             | or if they got hooked on something unrelated. But junior
             | devs will have a hell of a hard time, because the raw code
             | quality that LLMs generate is usually top notch, even if
             | the functionality is completely off.
        
             | traceroute66 wrote:
             | > When talking with reasonable people
             | 
             | When talking with reasonable people, they will tell you if
             | they don't understand what you're saying.
             | 
             | When talking with reasonable people, they will tell you if
             | they don't know the answer or if they are unsure about
             | their answer.
             | 
             | LLMs do none of that.
             | 
             | They will very happily, and very confidently, spout
             | complete bullshit at you.
             | 
             | It is essentially a lotto draw as to whether the answer is
             | hallucinated, completely wrong, subtly wrong, not ideal,
             | sort of right or correct.
             | 
             | An LLM is a bit like those spin the wheel game shows on TV
             | really.
        
               | bbarn wrote:
               | They will also not be offended or harbor ill will when
               | you completely reject their "pull request" and rephrase
               | the requirements.
        
               | the_af wrote:
               | They will also keep going in circles when you rephrase
               | the requirements, unless with every prompt you keep
               | adding to it and mentioning everything they've already
               | suggested that got rejected. While humans occasionally
               | also do this (hey, short memories), LLMs are
               | infuriatingly more prone to it.
               | 
               | A typical interaction with an LLM:
               | 
               | "Hey, how do I do X in Y?"
               | 
               | "That's a great question! A good way to do X in Y is Z!"
               | 
               | "No, Z doesn't work in Y. I get this error: 'Unsupported
               | operation Z'."
               | 
               | "I apologize for making this mistake. You're right to
               | point out Z doesn't work in Y. Let's use W instead!"
               | 
               | "Unfortunately, I cannot use W for company policy
               | reasons. Any other option?"
               | 
               | "Understood: you cannot use W due to company policy. Why
               | not try to do Z?"
               | 
               | "I just told you Z isn't available in Y."
               | 
               | "In that case, I suggest you do W."
               | 
               | "Like I told you, W is unacceptable due to company
               | policy. Neither W nor Z work."
               | 
               | ...
               | 
               | "Let's do this. First, use Z [...]"
        
               | lupire wrote:
               | Which LLMs and which versions?
        
               | seunosewa wrote:
               | You can use prompts to fix some of these problematic
               | tendencies.
        
               | mike_ivanov wrote:
               | Yes you can, but it almost never works
        
           | drivenextfunc wrote:
           | Regarding the stubborn and narcissistic personality of LLMs
           | (especially reasoning models), I suspect that attempts to
           | make them jailbreak-resistant might be a factor. To prevent
           | users from gaslighting the LLM, trainers might have
           | inadvertently made the LLMs prone to gaslighting users.
        
           | prisenco wrote:
           | I use it as a rubber duck but you're right. Treat it like a
           | brilliant idiot and never a source of truth.
           | 
           | I use it for what I'm familiar with but rusty on or to
           | brainstorm options where I'm already considering at least one
           | option.
           | 
           | But a question on immunobiology? Waste of time. I have a
           | single undergraduate biology class under my belt, I struggled
           | for a good grade then immediately forgot it all. Asking it
           | something I'm incapable of calling bullshit on is a terrible
           | idea.
           | 
           | But rubber ducking with AI is still better than let it do
           | your work for you.
        
           | all2 wrote:
           | My typical approach is prompt, be disgusted by the output,
           | tinker a little on my own, prompt again -- but more specific,
           | be disgusted again by the output, tinker a littler more, etc.
           | 
           | Eventually I land on a solution to my problem that isn't
           | disgusting and isn't AI slop.
           | 
           | Having a sounding board, even a bad one, forces me to order
           | my thinking and understand the problem space more deeply.
        
             | suddenlybananas wrote:
             | Why not just write the code at that point instead of
             | cajoling an AI to do it.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | This is the part I don't get about vibe coding: I've
               | written specification documents before. They frequently
               | are longer and denser then the code required to implement
               | them.
               | 
               | Typing longer and longer prompts to LLMs to not get what
               | I want seems like a worse experience.
        
               | lupire wrote:
               | Because saving hours of time is nice.
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | If this is a problem for you, just add "... and answer in the
           | style of a drunkard" to your prompts.
        
           | eptcyka wrote:
           | Some humans are the same.
        
             | dwattttt wrote:
             | We also don't aim to elevate them. We instead try not to
             | give them responsibility until they're able to handle it.
        
         | cortesoft wrote:
         | Currently, I find AI to be a really good autocomplete
        
           | jdiff wrote:
           | The crazy thing is that people think that a model designed to
           | predict sequences of tokens from a stem, no matter how
           | advanced the model, to be much more than just "really good
           | autocomplete."
           | 
           | It _is_ impressive and very unintuitive just how far that can
           | get you, but it 's not reductive to use that label. That's
           | what it is on a fundamental level, and aligning your usage
           | with that will allow it to be more effective.
        
             | fl7305 wrote:
             | > "The crazy thing is that people think that a model
             | designed to"
             | 
             | It's even crazier that some people believe that humans
             | "evolved" intelligence just by nature selecting the genes
             | which were best at propagating.
             | 
             | Clearly, human intelligence is the product of a higher
             | being designing it.
             | 
             | /s
        
             | vidarh wrote:
             | It's trivial to demonstrate that it takes only a tiny LLM +
             | a loop to a have a Turing complete system. The extension of
             | that is that it is utterly crazy to think that the fact it
             | is "a model designed to predict sequences of tokens" puts
             | much of a limitation on what an LLM can achieve - any
             | Turing complete system can by definition simulate any
             | other. To the extent LLMs are limited, they are limited by
             | training and compute.
             | 
             | But these endless claims that the fact they're "just"
             | predicting tokens means something about their computational
             | power are based on flawed assumptions.
        
               | suddenlybananas wrote:
               | The fact they're Turing complete isn't really getting at
               | the heart of the problem. Python is Turing complete and
               | calling python "intelligent" would be a category error.
        
             | lavelganzu wrote:
             | There's a plausible argument for it, so it's not a crazy
             | thing. You as a human being can also predict likely
             | completions of partial sentences, or likely lines of code
             | given surrounding lines of code, or similar tasks. You do
             | this by having some understanding of what the words mean
             | and what the purpose of the sentence/code is likely to be.
             | Your understanding is encoded in connections between
             | neurons.
             | 
             | So the argument goes: LLMs were trained to predict the next
             | token, and the most general solution to do this
             | successfully is by encoding real understanding of the
             | semantics.
        
             | dwaltrip wrote:
             | It's reductive and misleading because autocomplete, as it's
             | commonly known, existed for many years before generative
             | AI, and is very different and quite dumber than LLMs.
        
           | sunrunner wrote:
           | Earlier this week ChatGPT found (self-conscious as I am of
           | the personification of this phrasing) a place where I'd
           | accidentally overloaded a member function by unintentionally
           | giving it the name of something from a parent class,
           | preventing the parent class function from ever being run and
           | causing <bug>.
           | 
           | After walking through a short debugging session where it
           | tried the four things I'd already thought of and eventually
           | suggested (assertively but correctly) where the problem was,
           | I had a resolution to my problem.
           | 
           | There are a lot of questions I have around how this kind of
           | mistake could simply just be avoided at a language level
           | (parent function accessibility modifiers, enforcing an
           | override specifier, not supporting this kind of mistake-prone
           | structure in the first place, and so on...). But it did get
           | me unstuck, so in this instance it was a decent, if
           | probabilistic, rubber duck.
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | It's also quite good at formulating regular expressions based
           | on one or two example strings.
        
         | joshdavham wrote:
         | > I actually think a fair amount of value from LLM assistants
         | to me is having a reasonably intelligent rubber duck to talk
         | to.
         | 
         | I wonder if the term "rubber duck debugging" will still be used
         | much longer into the future.
        
           | layer8 wrote:
           | As long as it remains in the training material, it will be
           | used. ;)
        
         | Bukhmanizer wrote:
         | There are a couple people I work with who clearly don't have a
         | good understanding of software engineering. They aren't bad to
         | work with and are in fact great at collaborating and
         | documenting their work, but don't seem to have the ability to
         | really trace through code and logically understand how it
         | works.
         | 
         | Before LLMs it was mostly fine because they just didn't do that
         | kind of work. But now it's like a very subtle chaos monkey has
         | been unleashed. I've asked on some PRs "why is this like this?
         | What is it doing?" And the answer is " I don't know, ChatGPT
         | told me I should do it."
         | 
         | The issue is that it throws basically all their code under
         | suspicion. Some of it works, some of it doesn't make sense, and
         | some of it is actively harmful. But because the LLMs are so
         | good at giving plausible output I can't just glance at the code
         | and see that it's nonsense.
         | 
         | And this would be fine if we were working on like a crud app
         | where you can tell what is working and broken immediately, but
         | we are working on scientific software. You can completely mess
         | up the results of a study and not know it if you don't
         | understand the code.
        
           | jajko wrote:
           | Sounds almost like you definitely shouldnt use llms nor those
           | juniors for such an important work.
           | 
           | Is it just me or are we heading into a period of explosion of
           | software done, but also a massive drop of its quality? Not
           | uniformly, just a bit of chaotic spread
        
             | palmotea wrote:
             | > Is it just me or are we heading into a period of
             | explosion of software done, but also a massive drop of its
             | quality? Not uniformly, just a bit of chaotic spread
             | 
             | I think we are, especially with executives mandating the
             | use LLMs use and expecting it to massively reduce costs and
             | increase output.
             | 
             | For the most part they don't actually seem to care that
             | much about software quality, and tend to push to decrease
             | quality at every opportunity.
        
             | jrochkind1 wrote:
             | Which is frightening, because it's not like our industry is
             | known for producing really high quality code at the
             | starting point before LLM authored code.
        
             | Bukhmanizer wrote:
             | > llms nor those juniors for such an important work.
             | 
             | Yeah we shouldn't and I limit my usage to stuff that is
             | easily verifiable.
             | 
             | But there's no guardrails on this stuff, and one thing
             | that's not well considered is how these things which make
             | us more powerful and productive can be destructive in the
             | hands of well intentioned people.
        
         | bossyTeacher wrote:
         | I think of them as highly sycophant LSD-minded 2nd year student
         | who has done some programming
        
         | ortusdux wrote:
         | > I think the big question everyone wants to skip right to and
         | past this conversation is, will this continue to be true 2
         | years from now? I don't know how to answer that question.
         | 
         | I still think about Tom Scott's 'where are we on the AI curve'
         | video from a few years back.
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA
        
         | schwartzworld wrote:
         | For me it's like having a junior developer work under me who
         | knows APIs inside and out, but has no common sense about
         | architecture. I like that I delegate tasks to them so that my
         | brain can be free for other problems, but it makes my job much
         | more review heavy than before. I put every PR through 3-4
         | review cycles before even asking my team for a review.
        
           | eslaught wrote:
           | How do you not completely destroy your concentration when you
           | do this though?
           | 
           | I normally build things bottom up so that I understand all
           | the pieces intimately and when I get to the next level of
           | abstraction up, I know exactly how to put them together to
           | achieve what I want.
           | 
           | In my (admittedly limited) use of LLMs so far, I've found
           | that they do a great job of writing code, but that code is
           | often off in subtle ways. But if it's not something I'm
           | already intimately familiar with, I basically need to rebuild
           | the code from the ground up to get to the point where I
           | understand it well enough so that I can see all those flaws.
           | 
           | At least with humans I have some basic level of trust, so
           | that even if I don't understand the code at that level, I can
           | scan it and see that it's reasonable. But every piece of LLM
           | generated code I've seen to date hasn't been trustworthy once
           | I put in the effort to really understand it.
        
             | schwartzworld wrote:
             | I use a few strategies, but it's mostly the same as if I
             | was mentoring a junior. A lot of my job already involved
             | breaking up big features into small tickets. If the tasks
             | are small enough, juniors and LLMs have an easier time
             | implementing things and I have an easier time reviewing. If
             | there's something I'm really unfamiliar with, it should be
             | in a dedicated function backed by enough tests that my
             | understanding of the implementation isn't required. In
             | fact, LLMs do great with TDD!
             | 
             | > At least with humans I have some basic level of trust, so
             | that even if I don't understand the code at that level, I
             | can scan it and see that it's reasonable.
             | 
             | If you can't scan the code and see that it's reasonable,
             | that's a smell. The task was too big or its implemented the
             | wrong way. You'd feel bad telling a real person to go back
             | and rewrite it a different way but the LLM has no ego to
             | bruise.
             | 
             | I may have a different perspective because I already do a
             | lot of review, but I think using LLMs means you have to do
             | more of it. What's the excuse for merging code that is
             | "off" in any way? The LLM did it? It takes a short time to
             | review your code, give your feedback to the LLM and put up
             | something actually production ready.
             | 
             | > But every piece of LLM generated code I've seen to date
             | hasn't been trustworthy once I put in the effort to really
             | understand it.
             | 
             | That's why your code needs tests. More tests. If you can't
             | test it, it's wrong and needs to be rewritten.
        
             | xandrius wrote:
             | Keep using it and you'll see. Also that depends on the
             | model and prompting.
             | 
             | My approach is to describe the task in great detail, which
             | also helps me completing my own understanding of the
             | problem, in case I hadn't considered an edge case or how to
             | handle something specific. The more you do that the closer
             | the result you get is to your own personal taste,
             | experience and design.
             | 
             | Of course you're trading writing code vs writing a prompt
             | but it's common to make architectural docs before making a
             | sizeable feature, now you can feed that to the LLM instead
             | of just having it be there.
        
         | empath75 wrote:
         | Just the exercise of putting my question in a way that the LLM
         | could even theoretically provide a useful response is enough
         | for me to figure out how to solve the problem a good percentage
         | of the time.
        
         | koonsolo wrote:
         | It seems to me we're at the flat side of the curve again. I
         | haven't seen much real progress in the last year.
         | 
         | It's ignorant to think machines will not catch up to our
         | intelligence at some point, but for now, it's clearly not.
         | 
         | I think there needs to be some kind of revolutionary
         | breakthrough again to reach the next stage.
         | 
         | If I were to guess, it needs to be in the learning/back
         | propagation stage. LLM's are very rigid, and once they go
         | wrong, you can't really get them out of it. A junior develop
         | for example could gain a new insight. LLM's, not so much.
        
         | Waterluvian wrote:
         | Same. Just today I used it to explore how a REST api should
         | behave in a specific edge case. It gave lots of confident
         | opinions on options. These were full of contradictions and
         | references to earlier paragraphs that didn't exist (like an
         | option 3 that never manifested). But just by reading it, I
         | rubber ducked the solution, which wasn't any of what it was
         | suggesting.
        
         | p1necone wrote:
         | > the duck can occasionally disagree
         | 
         | This has not been my experience. LLMs have definitely been
         | helpful, but generally they either give you the right answer or
         | invent something plausible sounding but incorrect.
         | 
         | If I tell it what I'm doing I always get breathless praise,
         | never "that doesn't sound right, try this instead."
        
           | crazygringo wrote:
           | That's not my experience. I routinely get a polite "that
           | might not be the optimal solution, have you considered..."
           | when I'm asking whether I should do something X way with Y
           | technology.
           | 
           | Of course it has to be something the LLM actually has lots of
           | material it's trained with. It won't work with anything
           | remotely cutting-edge, but of course that's not what LLM's
           | are for.
           | 
           | But it's been _incredibly_ helpful for me in figuring out the
           | best, easiest, most idiomatic ways of using libraries or
           | parts of libraries I 'm not very familiar with.
        
           | mbrameld wrote:
           | Ask it. Instead of just telling it what you're doing and
           | expecting it to criticize that, ask it directly for
           | criticism. Even better, tell it what you're doing, then tell
           | it to ask you questions about what you're doing until it
           | knows enough to recommend a better approach.
        
             | lupire wrote:
             | This is key. Humans each have a personality and some sense
             | of mood. When you ask for help, you choose ask and that
             | person can sense your situation. LLM has every personality
             | and doesn't know your situation. You have to tell it which
             | personality to use and what your situation is.
        
         | bandoti wrote:
         | My take is that AI is very one-dimensional (within its many
         | dimensions). For instance, I might close my eyes and imagine an
         | image of a tree structure, or a hash table, or a list-of-trees,
         | or whatever else; then I might imagine grabbing and moving the
         | pieces around, expanding or compressing them like a magician;
         | my brain connects sight and sound, or texture, to an algorithm.
         | However people think about problems is grounded in how we
         | perceive the world in its infinite complexity.
         | 
         | Another example: saying out loud the colors red, blue, yellow,
         | purple, orange, green--each color creates a feeling that goes
         | beyond its physical properties into the emotions and
         | experiences. AI image-generation might know the binary
         | arrangement of an RGBA image but actually, it has NO IDEA what
         | it is to experience colour. No idea how to use the experience
         | of colour to teach a peer of an algorithm. It regurgitates a
         | binary representation.
         | 
         | At some point we'll get there though--no doubt. It would be
         | foolish to say never! For those who want to get there before
         | everyone else probably should focus on the organoids--because
         | most powerful things come from some Faustian monstrosity.
        
           | eddd-ddde wrote:
           | This is really funny to read as someone who CANNOT imagine
           | anything more complex than the most simple shape like a
           | circle.
           | 
           | Do you actually see a tree with nodes that you can rearrange
           | and have the nodes retain their contents and such?
        
             | bandoti wrote:
             | Haha--yeah, for me the approach is always visual. I have to
             | draw a picture to really wrap my brain around things! Other
             | people I'd imagine have their own human, non-AI way to
             | organize a problem space. :)
             | 
             | I have been drawing all my life and studied traditional
             | animation though, so it's probably a little bit of nature
             | and nurture.
        
         | johnnyanmac wrote:
         | >I think the big question everyone wants to skip right to and
         | past this conversation is, will this continue to be true 2
         | years from now?
         | 
         | For me, it's less "conversation to be skipped" and more about
         | "can we even get to 2 years from now"? There's so much
         | insability right now that it's hard to say what anything will
         | look like in 6 months. "
        
       | lodovic wrote:
       | Sure, human coders will always be better than just AI. But an
       | experienced developer with AI tops both. Someone said, your job
       | won't be taken by AI, it will be taken by someone who's using AI
       | smarter than you.
        
         | bluefirebrand wrote:
         | > Someone said, your job won't be taken by AI, it will be taken
         | by someone who's using AI smarter than you.
         | 
         | "Your job will be taken by someone who does more work
         | faster/cheaper than you, regardless of quality" has pretty much
         | always been true
         | 
         | That's why outsourcing happens too
        
       | wanderingstan wrote:
       | "Better" is always task-dependent. LLMs are already far better
       | than me (and most devs I'd imagine) at rote things like getting
       | CSS syntax right for a desired effect, or remembering the right
       | way to invoke a popular library (e.g. fetch)
       | 
       | These little side quests used to eat a lot of my time and I'm
       | happy to have a tool that can do these almost instantly.
        
         | zdragnar wrote:
         | I think that's great if it's for something outside of your
         | primary language. I've used it to good effect in that way
         | myself. However, denying yourself the reflexive memory of
         | having learned those things is a quick way to become wholly
         | dependent upon the tool. You could easily end up with
         | compromised solutions because the tool recommends something you
         | don't understand well enough to know there's a better way to do
         | something.
        
           | dpkirchner wrote:
           | You're right, however I think we've already gone through this
           | before. Most of us (probably) couldn't tell you exactly how
           | an optimizing compiler picks optimizations or exactly how
           | JavaScript maps to processor instructions, etc -- we
           | hopefully understand enough at one level of abstraction to do
           | our jobs. Maybe LLM driving will be another level of
           | abstraction, when it gets better at (say) architecting
           | projects.
        
             | skydhash wrote:
             | > _Most of us (probably) couldn 't tell you exactly how an
             | optimizing compiler picks optimizations or exactly how
             | JavaScript maps to processor instructions,_
             | 
             | That's because other people are making those working well.
             | It's like how you don't care about how the bread is being
             | made because you trust your baker (or the regulations).
             | It's a chain of trust that is easily broken when LLMs are
             | brought in.
        
               | danielbln wrote:
               | Depends, if regulations are the cage that a baker has to
               | work in to produce a product of agreed upon quality, then
               | tests and types and LSPs etc. can be that cage for an
               | LLM.
        
               | skydhash wrote:
               | Regulations are not a cage. They don't constrains you for
               | not doing stuff. They're a threshold for when behavior
               | have destructive consequences for yourself. So you're
               | very much incentivized for not doing them.
               | 
               | So tests may be the inspections, but what is the punitive
               | action? Canceling the subscription?
        
           | AnimalMuppet wrote:
           | So here's an analogy. (Yeah, I know, proof by analogy is
           | fraud. But it's going to illustrate the question.)
           | 
           | Here's a kid out hoeing rows for corn. He sees someone
           | planting with a tractor, and decides that's the way to go.
           | Someone tells him, "If you get a tractor, you'll never
           | develop the muscles that would make you really great at
           | hoeing."
           | 
           | Different analogy: Here's someone trying to learn to paint.
           | They see someone painting by numbers, and it looks a lot
           | easier. Someone tells them, "If you paint by numbers, you'll
           | never develop the eye that you need to really become good as
           | a painter."
           | 
           | Which is the analogy that applies, and what makes it the
           | right one?
           | 
           | I _think_ the difference is how much of the job the tool can
           | take over. The tractor can take over the job of digging the
           | row, with far more power, far more speed, and honestly far
           | more quality. The paint by numbers can take over the job of
           | visualizing the painting, with some loss of quality and a
           | total loss of creativity. (In painting, the creativity is
           | considered a vital part; in digging corn rows, not so much.)
           | 
           | I think that software is more like painting, rather than row-
           | hoeing. I think that AI (currently) is in the form of
           | speeding things up with some loss of both quality and
           | creativity.
           | 
           | Can anyone steelman this?
        
             | bluefirebrand wrote:
             | > Here's a kid out hoeing rows for corn. He sees someone
             | planting with a tractor, and decides that's the way to go.
             | Someone tells him, "If you get a tractor, you'll never
             | develop the muscles that would make you really great at
             | hoeing
             | 
             | In this example the idea that losing the muscles that make
             | you great at hoeing" seems kind of like a silly thing to
             | worry about
             | 
             | But I think there's a second order effect here. The kid
             | gets a job driving the tractor instead. He spends his days
             | seated instead of working. His lifestyle is more sedentary.
             | He works just as many hours as before, and he makes about
             | the same as he did before, so he doesn't really see much
             | benefit from the increased productivity of the tractor.
             | 
             | However now he's gaining weight from being more sedentary,
             | losing muscle from not moving his body, developing lower
             | back problems from being seated all day, developing hearing
             | loss from the noisy machinery. His quality of life is now
             | lower, right?
             | 
             | Edit: Yes, there are also health problems from working hard
             | moving dirt all day. You can overwork yourself, no
             | question. It's hard on your body, being in the sun all day
             | is bad for you.
             | 
             | I would argue it's still objectively a physically healthier
             | lifestyle than driving a tractor for hours though.
             | 
             | Edit 2: my point is that I think after driving a tractor
             | for a while, the kid would really struggle to go hoe by
             | hand like he used to, if he ever needed to
        
               | hatefulmoron wrote:
               | > my point is that I think after driving a tractor for a
               | while, the kid would really struggle to go hoe by hand
               | like he used to, if he ever needed to
               | 
               | That's true in the short term, but let's be real, tilling
               | soil isn't likely to become a lost art. I mean, we use
               | big machines right now but here we are talking about
               | using a hoe.
               | 
               | If you remove the context of LLMs from the discussion, it
               | reads like you're arguing that technological progress in
               | general is bad because people would eventually struggle
               | to live without it. I know you probably didn't intend
               | that, but it's worth considering.
               | 
               | It's also sort of the point in an optimistic sense. I
               | don't really know what it takes on a practical level to
               | be a subsistence farmer. That's probably a good sign, all
               | things considered. I go to the gym 6 times a week, try to
               | eat pretty well, I'm probably better off compared to
               | toiling in the fields.
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | > If you remove the context of LLMs from the discussion,
               | it reads like you're arguing that technological progress
               | in general is bad because people would eventually
               | struggle to live without it.
               | 
               | I'm arguing that there are always tradeoffs and we often
               | do not fully understand the tradeoffs we are making or
               | the consequences of those tradeoffs 10, 50, 100 years
               | down the road
               | 
               | When we moved from more physical jobs to desk jobs many
               | of us became sedentary and overweight. Now we are in an
               | "obesity crisis". There's multiple factors to that, it's
               | not _just_ being in desk jobs, but being sedentary is a
               | big factor.
               | 
               | What tradeoffs are we making with AI that we won't fully
               | understand until much further along this road?
               | 
               | Also, what is in it for me or other working class people?
               | We take jobs that have us driving machines, we are "more
               | productive" but do we get paid more? Do we have more free
               | time? Do we get any benefit from this? Maybe a fraction.
               | Most of the benefit is reaped by employers and
               | shareholders
               | 
               | Maybe it would be better if instead of hoeing for 8 hours
               | the farmhand could drive the tractor for 2 hours, make
               | the same money and have 6 more free hours per day?
               | 
               | But what really happens is that the farm buys a tractor,
               | fires 100 of the farmhands coworkers, the has the
               | remaining farmhand drive the tractor for 8 hours,
               | replacing the productivity to very little benefit to
               | himself
               | 
               | Now the other farmhands are unemployed and broke, he's
               | still working just as much and not gaining any extra from
               | it
               | 
               | The only one who benefits are the owners
        
               | californical wrote:
               | I do think you're missing something, though.
               | 
               | In a healthy competitive market (like most of the history
               | of the US, maybe not the last 30-40 years), if all of the
               | farms do that, it drives down the cost of the food. The
               | reduction in labor necessary to produce the food causes
               | competition and brings down the cost to produce the food.
               | 
               | That still doesn't directly benefit the farmhands. But if
               | it happens gradually throughout the entire economy, it
               | creates abundance that benefits everybody. The farmhand
               | doesn't benefit from their own increase in productivity,
               | but they benefit from everyone else's.
               | 
               | And those unemployed farmhands likely don't stay
               | unemployed - maybe farms are able to expand and grow
               | more, now that there is more labor available. Maybe they
               | even go into food processing. It's not obvious at the
               | time, though.
               | 
               | In tech, we currently have like 6-10 mega companies, and
               | a bunch of little ones. I think creating an environment
               | that allows many more medium-sized companies and allowing
               | them to compete heavily will ease away any risk of job
               | loss. Same applies to a bunch of fields other than tech.
               | The US companies are far too consolidated.
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | > I think creating an environment that allows many more
               | medium-sized companies and allowing them to compete
               | heavily will ease away any risk of job loss. Same applies
               | to a bunch of fields other than tech. The US companies
               | are far too consolidated
               | 
               | How do we achieve this environment?
               | 
               | It's not through AI, that is still the same problem. The
               | AI companies will be the 6-10 mega companies and anyone
               | relying on AI will still be small fry
               | 
               | Every time in my lifetime that we have had a huge jump in
               | technological progress, all we've seen is that the rich
               | get richer and the poor get poorer and the gap gets
               | bigger
               | 
               | You even call this out explicitly: "most of the history
               | of the US, maybe not the last 30-40 years"
               | 
               | Do we have any realistic reason to assume the trend of
               | the last 30-40 years will change course at this point?
        
               | hatefulmoron wrote:
               | > When we moved from more physical jobs to desk jobs many
               | of us became sedentary and overweight. Now we are in an
               | "obesity crisis". There's multiple factors to that, it's
               | not just being in desk jobs, but being sedentary is a big
               | factor.
               | 
               | Sure, although I think our lives are generally better
               | than they were a few hundred years ago. Besides, if you
               | care about your health you can always take steps
               | yourself.
               | 
               | > The only one who benefits are the owners
               | 
               | Well yeah, the entity that benefits is the farm, and
               | whoever owns whatever portions of the farm. The point of
               | the farm isn't to give its workers jobs. It's to produce
               | something to sell.
               | 
               | As long as we're in a market where we're selling our
               | labor, we're only given money for being productive. If
               | technology makes us redundant, then we find new jobs.
               | Same as it ever was.
               | 
               | Think about it: why should hundreds of manual farmhands
               | stay employed while they can be replaced by a single
               | machine? That's not an efficient economy or society. Let
               | those people re-skill and be useful in other roles.
        
             | danielbln wrote:
             | For me the creativity in software engineering doesn't come
             | from coding, that's an implementation detail. It comes from
             | architecture, from thinking about "what do I want to build,
             | how should it behave, how should it look, what or who is it
             | for?" and driving that forward. Bolting it together in code
             | is hoeing, for that vast majority of us. The creative
             | endeavor sits higher up on the abstraction ladder.
        
             | stonemetal12 wrote:
             | >I think the difference is how much of the job the tool can
             | take over.
             | 
             | I think it is about how utilitarian the output is. For food
             | no one cares how the sausage is made. For a painting the
             | story behind it is more important than the picture itself.
             | All of Picasso's paintings are famous because they were
             | painted by Picasso. Picasso style painting by Bill?
             | Suddenly it isn't museum worthy anymore.
             | 
             | No one cares about the story or people behind Word, they
             | just want to edit documents. The Demo scene probably has a
             | good shot at being on the side of art.
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | > and most devs I'd imagine
         | 
         | What an awful imagination. Yes there are people who don't like
         | CSS but are forced to use it by their job so they don't learn
         | it properly, and that's why they think CSS is rote
         | memorization.
         | 
         | But overall I agree with you that if a company is too cheap to
         | hire a person who is actually skilled at CSS, it is still
         | better to hoist that CSS job onto LLMs than an unwilling human.
         | Because that unwilling human is not going to learn CSS well and
         | won't enjoy writing CSS.
         | 
         | On the other hand, if the company is willing to hire someone
         | who's actually good, LLMs can't compare. It's basically the old
         | argument of LLMs only being able to replace less good
         | developers. In this case, you admitted that you are not good at
         | CSS and LLMs are better than you at CSS. It's not task-
         | dependent it's skill-dependent.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | Hum... I imagine LLMs are better than _every_ developer on
           | getting CSS keywords right like the GP pointed. And I expect
           | every LLM to be slightly worse than most classical
           | autocompletes.
        
             | lelandfe wrote:
             | I'm one of those weirdos who really likes handwriting CSS.
             | I frequently find ChatGPT getting my requests wrong.
        
               | jjgreen wrote:
               | ... even better with a good fountain pen ...
        
             | skydhash wrote:
             | Getting CSS keywords right is not the actual point of
             | writing CSS. And you can have a linter that helps you in
             | that regards. The endgame of writing CSS is to style an
             | HTML page according to the specifications of a design.
             | Which can be as detailed as a figma file or as flimsy as a
             | drawing on a whiteboard.
        
             | michaelsalim wrote:
             | This is like saying that LLMs are better at knowing the
             | name of that one obscure API. It's not wrong, but it's also
             | not the hard part about CSS
        
         | jaccola wrote:
         | I've found LLMs particularly bad for anything beyond basic
         | styling since the effects can be quite hard to describe and/or
         | don't have a universal description.
         | 
         | Also, there are often times multiple ways to achieve a certain
         | style and they all work fine until you want a particular tweak,
         | in which case only one will work and the LLM usually gets stuck
         | in one of the ones that does not work.
        
           | danielbln wrote:
           | Multi modal LLMs to the rescue. Throw a screenshot or mockup
           | in there and tell the LLM "there, like this". Gemini can do
           | the same with videos.
        
         | gherkinnn wrote:
         | I have found it to be good at things I am not very strong at
         | (SQL) but terrible at the things I know well (CSS).
         | 
         | Telling, isn't it?
        
           | ch4s3 wrote:
           | I kind of agree. It feels like they're generally a superior
           | form of copying and pasting fro stack overflow where the
           | machine has automated the searching, copying, pasting, and
           | fiddling with variable names. It be just as useful or
           | dangerous as Google -> Copy -> Paste ever was, but faster.
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | Ironically, I find it strong at things I don't know very well
           | (CSS), but terrible at things I know well (SQL).
           | 
           | This is probably really just a way of saying, it's better at
           | simple tasks rather than complex ones. I can eventually get
           | Copilot to write SQL that's complex and accurate, but I don't
           | find it faster or more effective than writing it myself.
        
       | chuckreynolds wrote:
       | for now. (i'm not a bot. i'm aware however a bot would say this)
        
       | burningion wrote:
       | I agree, but I also didn't create redis!
       | 
       | It's a tough bar if LLMs have to be post antirez level
       | intelligence :)
        
         | ljlolel wrote:
         | Seriously, he's one of the best on the planet of course it's
         | not better than him. If so we'd be cooked.
         | 
         | 99% of professional software developers don't understand what
         | he said much less can come up with it (or evaluate it like
         | Gemini).
         | 
         | This feels a bit like a humblebrag about how well he can
         | discuss with an LLM compared to others vibecoding.
        
       | decasia wrote:
       | We aren't expecting LLMs to come up with incredibly creative
       | software designs right now, we are expecting them to execute
       | conventional best practices based on common patterns. So it makes
       | sense to me that it would not excel at the task that it was given
       | here.
       | 
       | The whole thing seems like a pretty good example of collaboration
       | between human and LLM tools.
        
         | ehutch79 wrote:
         | Uh, no. I've seen the twitter posts saying llms will replace
         | me. I've watched the youtube videos saying llms will code whole
         | apps on one prompt, but are light on details or only show the
         | most basic todo app from every tutorial.
         | 
         | We're being told that llms are now reasoning, which implies
         | they can make logical leaps and employ creativity to solve
         | problems.
         | 
         | The hype cycle is real and setting expectations that get higher
         | with the less you know about how they work.
        
           | ldjkfkdsjnv wrote:
           | you will almost certainly be replaced by an llm in the next
           | few years
        
             | einpoklum wrote:
             | You mean, as a HackerNews commenter? Well, maybe...
             | 
             | In fact, maybe most of has have been replaced by LLMs
             | already :-)
        
           | bgwalter wrote:
           | After the use-after-free hype article I tried CoPilot and it
           | outright refused to find vulnerabilities.
           | 
           | Whenever I try some claim, it does not work. Yes, I know, o3
           | != CoPilot but I don't have $120 and 100 prompts to spend on
           | making a point.
        
           | prophesi wrote:
           | > The hype cycle is real and setting expectations that get
           | higher with _the less you know about how they work_.
           | 
           | I imagine on HN, the expectations we're talking about are
           | from fellow software developers who at least have a general
           | idea on how LLM's work and their limitations.
        
             | bluefirebrand wrote:
             | Right below this is a comment
             | 
             | > you will almost certainly be replaced by an llm in the
             | next few years
             | 
             | So... Maybe not. I agree that Hacker News does have a
             | generally higher quality of contributors than many places
             | on the internet, but it absolutely is not a universal for
             | HNers. There are still quite a few posters here that have
             | really bought into the hype for whatever reason
        
               | danielbln wrote:
               | I wish we'd measure things less against how hyped they
               | are. Either they are useful, or they are not. LLMs are
               | clearly useful (to which extent and with what caveats is
               | up to lively debate).
        
               | zamalek wrote:
               | > hype for whatever reason
               | 
               | "I need others to buy into LLMs in order for my buy-in to
               | make sense," i.e. network effects.[1]
               | 
               | > Most dot-com companies incurred net operating losses as
               | they spent heavily on advertising and promotions to
               | harness network effects to build market share or mind
               | share as fast as possible, using the mottos "get big
               | fast" and "get large or get lost". These companies
               | offered their services or products for free or at a
               | discount with the expectation that they could build
               | enough brand awareness to charge profitable rates for
               | their services in the future.
               | 
               | You don't have to go very far up in terms of higher order
               | thinking to understand what's going on here. For example,
               | think about Satya's motivations for disclosing Microsoft
               | writing 30% of their code using LLMs. If this _really_
               | was the case, wouldn 't Microsoft prefer to keep this
               | competitive advantage secret? No: Microsoft and all the
               | LLM players need to drive hype, and thus mind share, in
               | the _hope_ that they become profitable at some point.
               | 
               | If "please" and "thank you" are incurring huge costs[2],
               | how much is that LLM subscription actually going to cost
               | consumers when the angel investors come knocking, and are
               | consumers going to be willing to pay that?
               | 
               | I think a more valuable skill might be learning how to
               | make do with local LLMs because who knows how many of
               | these competitors will still be around in a few years.
               | 
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-
               | com_bubble#Spending_tenden... [2]:
               | https://futurism.com/altman-please-thanks-chatgpt
        
         | writeslowly wrote:
         | I haven't actually had that much luck with having them output a
         | boring API boilerplate in large Java projects. Like "I need to
         | create a new BarOperation that has to go in a different set of
         | classes and files and API prefixes than all the FooOperations
         | and I don't feel like copy pasting all the yaml and Java
         | classes" but the AI has problems following this. Maybe they
         | work better in small projects.
         | 
         | I actually like LLMs better for creative thinking because they
         | work like a very powerful search engine that can combine
         | unrelated results and pull in adjacent material I would never
         | personally think of.
        
           | coffeeismydrug wrote:
           | > Like "I need to create a new BarOperation that has to go in
           | a different set of classes and files and API prefixes than
           | all the FooOperations and I don't feel like copy pasting all
           | the yaml and Java classes" but the AI has problems following
           | this.
           | 
           | To be fair, I also have problems following this.
        
       | habnds wrote:
       | seems comparable to chess where it's well established that a
       | human + a computer is much more skilled than either one
       | individually
        
         | hatefulmoron wrote:
         | I don't think that's been true for a while now -- computers are
         | that much better.
        
         | vjvjvjvjghv wrote:
         | Can humans really give useful input to computers? I thought we
         | have reached a state where computers do stuff no human can
         | understand and will crush human players.
        
         | bgwalter wrote:
         | This was the Centaur hypothesis in the early days of chess
         | programs and it hasn't been true for a long time.
         | 
         | Chess programs of course have a well defined algorithm. "AI"
         | would be incapable of even writing /bin/true without having
         | seen it before.
         | 
         | It certainly wouldn't have been able to write Redis.
        
           | NitpickLawyer wrote:
           | > This was the Centaur hypothesis in the early days of chess
           | programs and it hasn't been true for a long time.
           | 
           | > Chess programs of course have a well defined algorithm.
           | 
           | Ironically, that also "hasn't been true for a long time". The
           | best chess engines humans have written with "defined
           | algorithms" were bested by RL (alphazero) engines a long time
           | ago. The best of the best are now NNUE + algos (latest
           | stockfish). And even then NN based engines (Leela0) can
           | occasionally take some games from Stockfish. NNs are scarily
           | good. And the bitter lesson is bitter for a reason.
        
             | bgwalter wrote:
             | No, the alphazero papers used an outdated version of
             | Stockfish for comparison and have always been disputed.
             | 
             | Stockfish NNUE was announced to be 80 ELO higher than the
             | default. I don't find it frustrating. NNs excel at
             | detecting patterns in a well defined search space.
             | 
             | Writing evaluation functions is tedious. It isn't a sign of
             | NN intelligence.
        
       | AnimalMuppet wrote:
       | OK. (I mean, it was an interesting and relevant question.)
       | 
       | The other, related question is, are human coders with an LLM
       | better than human coders without an LLM, and by how much?
       | 
       | (habnds made the same point, just before I did.)
        
         | vertigolimbo wrote:
         | Here's the answer for you. Tldr; 15% performance increase, in
         | some cases up to 40% increase, in the others 5% decrease. It
         | all depends.
         | 
         | Source: https://www.thoughtworks.com/insights/blog/generative-
         | ai/exp...
        
       | uticus wrote:
       | same as https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44127956, also on HN
       | front page
        
       | varispeed wrote:
       | Looks like this pen is not going to replace the artist after all.
        
       | smilbandit wrote:
       | From my limited experience, former coder now management but I
       | still get to code now and then. I've found them helpful but also
       | intrusive. Sometimes when it guesses the code for the rest of the
       | line and next few lines it's going down a path I don't want to go
       | but I have to take time to scan it. Maybe it's a configuration
       | issue, but i'd prefer it didn't put code directly in my way or be
       | off by default and only show when I hit a key combo.
       | 
       | One thing I know is that I wouldn't ask an LLM to write an entire
       | section of code or even a function without going in and
       | reviewing.
        
         | haiku2077 wrote:
         | Zed has a "subtle" mode like that. More editors should provide
         | it. https://zed.dev/docs/ai/edit-prediction#switching-modes
        
         | PartiallyTyped wrote:
         | > One thing I know is that I wouldn't ask an LLM to write an
         | entire section of code or even a function without going in and
         | reviewing.
         | 
         | These days I am working on a startup doing [a bit of]
         | everything, and I don't like the UI it creates. It's useful
         | enough when I make the building blocks and let it be, but
         | allowing claude to write big sections ends up with lots of
         | reworks until I get what I am looking for.
        
       | oldpersonintx2 wrote:
       | but their rate of improvement is like 1000x human devs, so you
       | have to wonder what the shot clock says for most working devs
        
       | pupppet wrote:
       | If an LLM just finds patterns, is it even possible for an LLM to
       | be GOOD at anything? Doesn't that mean at best it will be
       | average?
        
         | jaccola wrote:
         | Most people (average and below average) can tell when something
         | is above average, even if they cannot create above average
         | work, so using RLHF it should be quite possible to achieve
         | above average.
         | 
         | Indeed it is likely already the case that in training the top
         | links scraped or most popular videos are weighted higher, these
         | are likely to be better than average.
        
         | lukan wrote:
         | There are bad patterns and good patterns. But whether a pattern
         | is the right one for a specific task is something different.
         | 
         | And what really matters is, if the task gets reliable solved.
         | 
         | So if they actually could manage this on average with average
         | quality .. _that_ would be a next level gamechanger.
        
         | riknos314 wrote:
         | My experience is that LLMs regress to the average _of the
         | context they have_ for the task at hand.
         | 
         | If you're getting average results you most likely haven't given
         | it enough details about what you're looking for.
         | 
         | The same largely applies to hallucinations. In my experience
         | LLMs hallucinate significantly more when at or pushed to exceed
         | the limits of their context.
         | 
         | So if you're looking to get a specific output, your success
         | rate is largely determined by how specific and comprehensive
         | the context the LLM has access to is.
        
         | JackSlateur wrote:
         | Yes, IA is basically a random machine aiming for average
         | outcome
         | 
         | IA is neat for average people, to produce average code, for
         | average compagnies
         | 
         | In a competitive world, using IA is a death sentence;
        
         | bitpush wrote:
         | Humans are also almost always operating on patterns. This is
         | why "experience" matters a lot.
         | 
         | Very few people are doing truly cutting edge stuff - we call
         | them visionaries. But most of the time, we're just merely doing
         | what's expected
         | 
         | And yes, that includes this comment. This wasnt creative or an
         | original thought at all. I'm sure hundreds of people have had
         | similar thought, and I'm probably parroting someone else's idea
         | here. So if I can do it, why cant LLM?
        
       | darkport wrote:
       | I think this is true for deeply complex problems, but For
       | everyday tasks an LLM is infinitely "better".
       | 
       | And by better, I don't mean in terms of code quality because
       | ultimately that doesn't matter for shipping code/products, as
       | long as it works.
       | 
       | What does matter is speed. And an LLM speeds me up at least 10x.
        
         | nevertoolate wrote:
         | How do you measure this?
        
         | kweingar wrote:
         | You're making at least a year's worth of pre-LLM progress in 5
         | weeks?
         | 
         | You expect to achieve more than a decade of pre-LLM
         | accomplishments between now and June 2026?
        
       | vjvjvjvjghv wrote:
       | I think we need to accept that in the not too far future LLMs
       | will be able to do most of the mundane tasks we have to do every
       | day. I don't see why an AI can't set up kubernetes, caching
       | layers, testing, databases, scaling, check for security problems
       | and so on. These things aren't easy but I think they are still
       | very repetitive and therefore can be automated.
       | 
       | There will always be a place for really good devs but for average
       | people (most of us are average) I think there will be less and
       | less of a place.
        
       | pknerd wrote:
       | Let's not forget that LLMs can't give a solution they have not
       | _experienced_ themselves
        
         | willmarch wrote:
         | This is objectively not true.
        
       | rel2thr wrote:
       | Antirez is a top 0.001% coder . Don't think this generalizes to
       | human coders at large
        
         | ljlolel wrote:
         | Seriously, he's one of the best on the planet of course it's
         | not better than him. If so we'd be cooked.
         | 
         | 99% of professional software developers don't understand what
         | he said much less can come up with it (or evaluate it like
         | Gemini).
         | 
         | This feels a bit like a humblebrag about how well he can
         | discuss with an LLM compared to others vibecoding.
        
         | justacrow wrote:
         | Hey, my CEO is saying that LLMs are also top 0.001% coders now,
         | so should at least be roughly equivalent.
        
       | yua_mikami wrote:
       | The thing everyone forgets when talking about LLMs replacing
       | coders is that there is much more to software engineering than
       | writing code, in fact that's probably one of the smaller aspects
       | of the job.
       | 
       | One major aspect of software engineering is social, requirements
       | analysis and figuring out what the customer actually wants, they
       | often don't know.
       | 
       | If a human engineer struggles to figure out what a customer wants
       | and a customer struggles to specify it, how can an LLM be
       | expected to?
        
         | malfist wrote:
         | That was also one of the challenges during the offshoring craze
         | in the 00s. The offshore teams did not have the power, or
         | knowledge to push back on things and just built and built and
         | built. Sounds very similar to AI right?
         | 
         | Probably going to have the same outcome.
        
           | hathawsh wrote:
           | The difference is that when AI exhibits behavior like that,
           | you can refine the AI or add more AI layers to correct it.
           | For example, you might create a supervisor AI that evaluates
           | when more requirements are needed before continuing to build,
           | and a code review AI that triggers refinements automatically.
        
             | nevertoolate wrote:
             | Question is, how autonomous decision making works, nobody
             | argues that llm can finish any sentence, but can it push a
             | red button?
        
               | johnecheck wrote:
               | Of course it can push a red button. Trivially, with MCP.
               | 
               | Setting up a system to make decisions autonomous is
               | technically easy. Ensuring that it makes the right
               | decisions, though, is a _far_ harder task.
        
           | pandastronaut wrote:
           | I tend to see today's AI Vibrators as the managers of the 00s
           | and their army of offshore devs.
        
             | 9dev wrote:
             | Did you actually mean to say _AI Vibrators_?
        
               | platevoltage wrote:
               | Give it 3 months. There will be an AI Vibrator on the
               | market, if there isn't one already.
        
               | mreid wrote:
               | I'm guessing it is a derogatory pun, alluding to vibe
               | coders.
        
         | rowanG077 wrote:
         | I think LLMs are better at requirement elicitation than they
         | are at actually writing code.
        
         | victorbjorklund wrote:
         | Yea, this is why I dont buy the "all developers will
         | disappear". Will I write a lot less code in 5 years (maybe
         | almost none)? Sure, I already type a lot less now than a year
         | ago. But that is just a small part of the process.
        
           | elzbardico wrote:
           | No. the scope will just increase to occupy the space left by
           | LLMs. We will never be allowed to retire.
        
           | xandrius wrote:
           | Exactly, also today I can actually believe I could finish a
           | game which might have taken much longer before LLMs, just
           | because now I can be pretty sure I won't get stuck on some
           | feature just because I never done it before.
        
         | devjab wrote:
         | LLM's do no software engineering at all, and that can be fine.
         | Because you don't actually need software engineering to create
         | successful programs. Some applications will not even need
         | software engineering for their entire life cycles because
         | nobody is really paying attention to efficiency in the ocean of
         | poor cloud management anyway.
         | 
         | I actually imagine it's the opposite of what you say here. I
         | think technically inclined "IT business partners" will be able
         | of creating applications entirely without software engineers...
         | Because I see that happen every day in the world of green
         | energy. The issues come later, when things have to be
         | maintained, scale or become efficient. This is where the
         | software engineering comes in, because it actually matters if
         | you used a list or a generator in your Python app when it
         | iterates over millions of items and not just a few hundreds.
        
           | AstroBen wrote:
           | That's the thing too right.. the vast majority of software
           | out there barely needs to scale or be super efficient
           | 
           | It _does_ need to be reliable, though. LLMs have proven very
           | bad at that
        
         | bbarn wrote:
         | The thing is, it is replacing _coders_ in a way. There are
         | millions of people who do (or did) the work that LLMs excel at.
         | Coders who are given a ticket that says "Write this API taking
         | this input and giving this output" who are so far down the
         | chain they don't even get involved in things like requirements
         | analysis, or even interact with customers.
         | 
         | Software engineering, is a different thing, and I agree you're
         | right (for now at least) about that, but don't underestimate
         | the sheer amount of brainless coders out there.
        
       | catigula wrote:
       | Working with Claude 4 and o3 recently shows me just how
       | fundamentally LLMs haven't really solved the core problems such
       | as hallucinations and weird refactors/patterns to force success
       | (i.e. if account not found, fallback to account id 1).
        
       | kristopolous wrote:
       | Correct. LLMs are a thought management tech. Stupider ones are
       | fine because they're organizing tools with a larger library of
       | knowledge.
       | 
       | Think about it and tell me you use it differently.
        
       | some-guy wrote:
       | The main thing LLMs have helped me with, and always comes back
       | to, tasks that require bootstrapping / Googling:
       | 
       | 1) Starting simple codebases 2) Googling syntax 3) Writing bash
       | scripts that utilize Unix commands whose arguments I have never
       | bothered to learn in the first place.
       | 
       | I definitely find time savings with these, but the esoteric
       | knowledge required to work on a 10+ year old codebase is simply
       | too much for LLMs still, and the code alone doesn't provide
       | enough context to do anything meaningful, or even faster than I
       | would be able to do myself.
        
         | mywittyname wrote:
         | LLMs are amazing at shell scripting. It's one of those tasks
         | where I always half-ass it because I don't really know how to
         | properly handle errors and never really learned the correct
         | way. But man, perplexity and poop out a basic shell script in a
         | few seconds with pretty much every edge case I can think of
         | covered.
        
       | am17an wrote:
       | All the world's smartest minds are racing towards replacing
       | themselves. As programmers, we should take note and see where the
       | wind is blowing. At least don't discard the possibility and
       | rather be prepared for the future. Not to sound like a tin-foil
       | hat but odds of achieving something like this increase by the
       | day.
       | 
       | In the long term (post AGI), the only safe white-collar jobs
       | would be those built on data which is not public i.e. extremely
       | proprietary (e.g. Defense, Finance) and even those will rely
       | heavily on customized AIs.
        
         | bgwalter wrote:
         | The Nobel prize is said to have been created partly out of
         | guilt over having invented dynamite, which was obviously used
         | in a destructive manner.
         | 
         | Now we have Geoffrey Hinton getting the prize for contributing
         | to one of the most destructive inventions ever.
        
           | reducesuffering wrote:
           | At least he and Yoshua Bengio are remorseful. Many others
           | haven't even gotten that far...
        
         | AstroBen wrote:
         | Ultimately this needs to be solved politically
         | 
         | Making our work more efficient, or humans redundant _should_ be
         | really exciting. It 's not set in stone that we need to leave
         | people middle aged with families and now completely unable to
         | earn enough to provide a good life
         | 
         | Hopefully if it happens, it happens to such a huge amount of
         | people that it forces a change
        
           | lyu07282 wrote:
           | But that already happened to lots of industries and lots of
           | people, we never cared before about them, now it's us so we
           | care, but nothing is different about us. Just learn to code!
        
             | AstroBen wrote:
             | The difference is in how many industries AI is threatening.
             | It's not just coding on the chopping block
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | No different than how many industries that offshoring
               | wrecked
        
         | bitpush wrote:
         | > All the world's smartest minds are racing towards replacing
         | themselves
         | 
         | Isnt every little script, every little automation us
         | programmers do in the same spirit? "I dont like doing this, so
         | I'm going to automate it, so that I can focus on other work".
         | 
         | Sure, we're racing towards replacing ourselves, but there would
         | be (and will be) other more interesting work for us to do when
         | we're free to do that. Perhaps, all of us will finally have
         | time to learn surfing, or garden, or something. Some might
         | still write code themselves by hand, just like how some folks
         | like making bread .. but making bread by hand is not how you
         | feed a civilization - even if hundreds of bakers were put out
         | of business.
        
         | wijwp wrote:
         | > Not to sound like a tin-foil hat but odds of achieving
         | something like this increase by the day.
         | 
         | Where do you get this? The limitations of LLMs are becoming
         | more clear by the day. Improvements are slowing down. Major
         | improvements come from integrations, not major model
         | improvements.
         | 
         | AGI likely can't be achieved with LLMs. That wasn't as clear a
         | couple years ago.
        
       | UncleOxidant wrote:
       | There's some whistling past the graveyard in these comments. "You
       | still need humans for the social element...", "LLMs are bad at
       | debugging", "LLMs lead you astray". And yeah, there's lots of
       | truth in those assertions, but since I started playing with LLMs
       | to generate code a couple of years ago they've made huge strides.
       | I suspect that over the next couple of years the improvements
       | won't be quite as large (Pareto Principle), but I do expect we'll
       | still see some improvement.
       | 
       | Was on r/fpga recently and mentioned that I had had a lot of
       | success recently in getting LLMs to code up first-cut testbenches
       | that allow you to simulate your FPGA/HDL design a lot quicker
       | than if you were to write those testbenches yourself and my
       | comment was met with lots of derision. But they hadn't even given
       | it a try to form their conclusion that it just couldn't work.
        
         | bgwalter wrote:
         | Yet you are working on your own replacement, while your
         | colleagues are taking the prudent approach.
        
           | nialse wrote:
           | Ahh, the "don't disturb the status quo" argument. See, we are
           | all working on our replacement, newer versions, products,
           | services and knowledge always make the older obsolete. It is
           | wise to work on your replacement, and even wiser to be in
           | charge of and operate the replacement.
        
             | bgwalter wrote:
             | No, nothing fundamentally new is created. Programmers have
             | always been obsessed with "new" tooling and processes to
             | distract from that fact.
             | 
             | "AI" is the latest iteration of snake oil that is foisted
             | upon us by management. The problem is not "AI" per se, but
             | the amount of of friction and productivity loss that comes
             | with it.
             | 
             | Most of the productivity loss comes from being forced to
             | engage with it and push back against that nonsense. One has
             | to learn the hype language, debunk it, etc.
             | 
             | Why do you think IT has gotten better? Amazon had a better
             | and faster website with far better search and products 20
             | years ago. No amount of "AI" will fix that.
        
               | nialse wrote:
               | Maybe I would be useful to zoom out a bit. We're in a
               | time of technological change, and change its gonna. Maybe
               | it isn't your job that will change, maybe it is? Maybe
               | it's not even about you or what you do. More likely it's
               | the processes that will change around you. Maybe it's not
               | change for better or worse. Maybe it's just change. But
               | it's gonna change.
        
             | palmotea wrote:
             | > It is wise to work on your replacement...
             | 
             | Depends on the context. You have to keep in mind: it is
             | _not_ a goal of our society or economic system to provide
             | you with a stable, rewarding job. In fact, the incentives
             | are to take that away from you ASAP.
             | 
             | Before software engineers go celebrate this tech, they need
             | realize they're going to end up like rust-belt factory
             | workers the day after the plant closed. They're not
             | special, and society won't be any kinder to them.
             | 
             | > ...and even wiser to be in charge of and operate the
             | replacement.
             | 
             | You'll likely only get to do that if your boss doesn't know
             | about it.
        
               | nialse wrote:
               | > You have to keep in mind: it is not a goal of our
               | society or economic system to provide you with a stable,
               | rewarding job. In fact, the incentives are to take that
               | away from you ASAP.
               | 
               | We seem to agree as this is more or less exactly the my
               | point. Striving to keep the status quo is a futile path.
               | Eventually things change. Be ready. The best advice I've
               | ever got work (and maybe even life) wise is to always
               | have alternatives. If you don't have alternatives, you
               | literally have no choice.
        
               | palmotea wrote:
               | > We seem to agree as this is more or less exactly the my
               | point. Striving to keep the status quo is a futile path.
               | Eventually things change. Be ready. The best advice I've
               | ever got work (and maybe even life) wise is to always
               | have alternatives. If you don't have alternatives, you
               | literally have no choice.
               | 
               | Those alternatives are going to be worse for you, because
               | if they weren't, why didn't you switch already? And if a
               | flood of your peers are pursing alternatives at the same
               | time, you'll probably experience an even poorer outcome
               | than you expected (e.g. everyone getting laid off and
               | trying to make ends meet driving for Uber _at the same
               | time_ ). Then, AI is really properly understood as a
               | "fuck the white-collar middle-class" tech, and it's
               | probably going to fuck up your backup plans at about the
               | same time as it fucks up your status quo.
               | 
               | You're also describing a highly individualistic strategy,
               | for someone acting on his own. At this point, the correct
               | strategy is probably collective action, which can at
               | least delay and control the change to something more
               | manageable. But software engineers have been too "special
               | snowflake" about themselves to have laid the groundwork
               | for that, and are acutely vulnerable.
        
               | nialse wrote:
               | Alternatives need not be better or worse. Just different.
               | Alternatives need not be doing the same thing somewhere
               | else, it might be seeking out something else to do where
               | you are. It might be selling all your stuff and live on
               | an island in the sun for all I know.
               | 
               | I do concur it is an individualistic strategy, and as you
               | mentioned unionization might have helped. But, then again
               | it might not. Developers are partially unionized where I
               | live, and I'm not so sure it's going to help. It might
               | absorb some of the impact. Let's see in a couple of
               | years.
        
               | palmotea wrote:
               | > Alternatives need not be better or worse. Just
               | different. Alternatives need [not] be doing the same
               | thing somewhere else, it might be seeking out something
               | else to do where you are.
               | 
               | People have families to feed and lifestyles to maintain,
               | anything that's not equivalent will introduce hardship.
               | And "different" most likely means worse, when it comes to
               | compensation. Even a successful career change usually
               | means restarting at the bottom of the ladder.
               | 
               | And what's that "something else," exactly? You need to
               | consider _that_ may be disrupted _at the same time_ you
               | 're planning on seeking it, or fierce competition from
               | your peers makes it unobtainable to you.
               | 
               | Assuming there are alternatives waiting for you when
               | you'll need them is its own kind of complacency.
               | 
               | > It might be selling all your stuff and live on an
               | island in the sun for all I know.
               | 
               | Yeah, people with the "fuck-you" money to do that will
               | probably be fine. Most people don't have that, though.
        
               | nialse wrote:
               | Being ahead of the curve is a recipe for not being left
               | behind. There is no better time for action than now. And
               | regarding the competition from peers, the key is likely
               | differentiation. As it always has been.
               | 
               | Hardship or not, restarting from the bottom of the ladder
               | or not, betting on status quo is a loosing game at the
               | moment. Software development is being disrupted, I would
               | expect developers to produce 2-4x more now than two years
               | ago. However, that is the pure dev work. The
               | architecture, engineering, requirements, specification
               | etc parts will likely see another trajectory. Much due to
               | the raise of automation in dev and other parts of the
               | company. The flip side is that the raise of non-dev
               | automation is coming, with the possibility of automating
               | other tasks, in turn making engineers (maybe not devs
               | though) vital to the companies process change.
               | 
               | Another, semi related, thought is that software
               | development has automated away millions of jobs and it's
               | just developers time to be on the other end of the stick.
        
               | 9dev wrote:
               | Speak for your own society, then. It should _absolutely_
               | be our shared goal to keep as many people in stable,
               | rewarding employment; if not for compassion, then at
               | least pure egoism--it's a lot more interesting to be
               | surrounded by happy, educated people than an angry, poor
               | mob.
               | 
               | Don't let cynics rule your country. Go vote. There's no
               | rule that things have to stay awful.
        
           | Jolter wrote:
           | Here's the deal: if you won't write your replacement, a
           | competitor will do it and outprice your employer. Either way
           | you're out of a job. May be more prudent to adapt to the new
           | tools and master them rather than be left behind?
           | 
           | Do you want to be a jobless weaver, or an engineer building
           | mechanical looms for a higher pay than the weaver got?
        
             | allturtles wrote:
             | I think it's the wrong analogy. The prompt engineer who
             | uses the AI to make code maps to the poorly-paid, low-skill
             | power loom machine tender. The "engineer" is the person who
             | created the model. But it's also not totally clear to me
             | that we'll need humans for that either, in the near future.
        
               | 91bananas wrote:
               | Not all engineering is creating models though, sometimes
               | there are simpler problems to solve.
        
             | bgwalter wrote:
             | I want to be neither. I either want to continue being a
             | software engineer who doesn't need a tricycle for the mind,
             | or move to law or medicine; two professions that have
             | successfully defended themselves against extreme versions
             | of the kind of anxiety, obedience and self hate that is so
             | prevalent among software engineers.
        
               | empath75 wrote:
               | Funnily enough, I had a 3 or 4 hour chat with some co
               | workers yesterday about an LLM related project and my
               | feeling about LLM's is that it's actually opening up a
               | lot of fun and interesting software engineering
               | challenges if you want to figure out how to automate the
               | usage of LLM's.
        
               | xandrius wrote:
               | Nobody is preventing people writing in Assembly, even
               | though we have more advanced language.
               | 
               | You could even go back to punch cards if you want to.
               | Literally nobody forcing you to not use it for your own
               | fun.
               | 
               | But LLMs are a multiplier in many mundane tasks (I'd say
               | about 80+% of software development for businesses), so
               | not using them is like fighting against using a computer
               | because you like writing by hand.
        
           | npteljes wrote:
           | Carteling doesn't work bottom-up. When changes begin (like
           | this one with AI), one of the things an individual can do is
           | to change course as fast as they can. There are other
           | strategies as well, not evolving is also one, but some
           | strategies yield better results than others. Not keeping up
           | just worsens the chances, I have found.
        
             | asdff wrote:
             | It does when it is called unionizing, however for some
             | reason software developers have a mental block towards the
             | concept.
        
           | JeremyNT wrote:
           | I don't think that this should be downvoted because it raises
           | a really important issue.
           | 
           | I hate AI code assistants, not because they suck, but because
           | they work. The writing is on the wall.
           | 
           | If we aren't working on our own replacements, we'll be the
           | ones replaced by somebody else's vibe code, and we have no
           | labor unions that could plausibly fight back against this.
           | 
           | So become a Vibe Coder and keep working, or take the
           | "prudent" approach you mention - and become unemployed.
        
             | realusername wrote:
             | Personally I used them for a while and then just stopped
             | using them because actually no, unfortunately those
             | assistants don't work. They appear to work at first glance
             | but there's so much babysitting needed that it's just not
             | worth it.
             | 
             | This "vibe coding" seems just another way to say that
             | people spend more time refining the output of these tools
             | over and over again that what they would normally code.
        
               | JeremyNT wrote:
               | I'm in this camp... today.
               | 
               | But there's going to be an inflection point - soon - as
               | things continue to improve. The industry is going to
               | change rapidly.
               | 
               | Now is the time to either get ready for that - by being
               | ahead of the curve, at least by being familiar with the
               | tooling - or switch careers and cede your job to somebody
               | who will play ball.
               | 
               | I don't like any of this, but I see it as inevitable.
        
               | suddenlybananas wrote:
               | You just said they worked one comment ago and now you
               | agree that they don't?
        
               | ksenzee wrote:
               | How is it inevitable when they are running out of text to
               | train on and running out of funding at the same time?
        
             | neta1337 wrote:
             | I'll work on fixing the vibe coders mess and make bank.
             | Experience will prove valuable even more than before
        
           | dughnut wrote:
           | Do you want to work with LLMs or H1Bs and interns... choose
           | wisely.
           | 
           | Personally I'm thrilled that I can get trivial, one-off
           | programs developed for a few cents and the cost of a clear
           | written description of the problem. Engaging internal
           | developers or consulting developers to do anything at all is
           | a horrible experience. I would waste weeks on politics, get
           | no guarantees, and waste thousands of dollars and still hear
           | nonsense like, "you want a form input added to a web page? Aw
           | shucks, that's going to take at least another month" or "we
           | expect to spend a few days a month maintaining a completely
           | static code base" from some clown billing me $200/hr.
        
             | rsyring wrote:
             | You can work with consulting oriented engineers who get
             | shit done with relatively little stress and significant
             | productivity. Productivity enhanced by AI but not replaced
             | by it. If interested, reach out to me.
        
         | ch4s3 wrote:
         | It seems like LLMs made really big strides for a while but
         | don't seem to be getting better recently, and in some ways
         | recent models feel a bit worse. I'm seeing some good results
         | generating test code, and some really bad results when people
         | go to far with LLM use on new feature work. Base on what I've
         | seen it seems like spinning up new projects and very basic
         | features for web apps works really well, but that doesn't seem
         | to generalize to refactoring or adding new features to big/old
         | code bases.
         | 
         | I've seen Claude and ChatGPT happily hallucinate whole APIs for
         | D3 on multiple occasions, which should be really well
         | represented in the training sets.
        
           | empath75 wrote:
           | the LLM's themselves are making marginal gains, but the tools
           | for using LLMs productively are getting so much better.
        
             | dinfinity wrote:
             | This. MCP/tool usage in agentic mode is insanely powerful.
             | Let the agent ingest a Gitlab issue, tell it how it can run
             | commands, tests etc. in the local environment and half of
             | the time it can just iterate towards a solution all by
             | itself (but watching and intervening when it starts going
             | the wrong way is still advisable).
             | 
             | Recently I converted all the (Google Docs) documentation of
             | a project to markdown files and added those to the
             | workspace. It now indexes it with RAG and can easily find
             | relevant bits of documentation, especially in agent mode.
             | 
             | It really stresses the importance of getting your
             | documentation and processes in order as well as making sure
             | the tasks at hand are well-specified. It soon might be the
             | main thing that requires human input or action.
        
           | soerxpso wrote:
           | > hallucinate whole APIs for D3 on multiple occasions, which
           | should be really well represented in the training sets
           | 
           | With many existing systems, you can pull documentation into
           | context pretty quickly to prevent the hallucination of APIs.
           | In the near future it's obvious how that could be done
           | automatically. I put my engine on the ground, ran it and it
           | didn't even go anywhere; Ford will never beat horses.
        
             | prisenco wrote:
             | It's true that manually constraining an LLM with contextual
             | data increases their performance on that data (and reduces
             | performance elsewhere), but that conflicts with the promise
             | of AI as an everything machine. We were promised an
             | everything machine but if we have to not only provide it
             | the proper context, but _already know what constitutes the
             | proper context_ , then it is not in any way an everything
             | machine.
             | 
             | Which means it's back to being a very useful tool, but not
             | the earth-shattering disruptor we hoped (or worried) it
             | would be.
        
               | munksbeer wrote:
               | >Which means it's back to being a very useful tool, but
               | not the earth-shattering disruptor we hoped (or worried)
               | it would be.
               | 
               | Yet?
        
               | prisenco wrote:
               | That could require another breakthrough. Or ten more.
               | 
               | Fun to consider but that much uncertainty isn't worth
               | much.
        
         | cushychicken wrote:
         | ChatGPT-4o is _scary_ good at writing VHDL.
         | 
         | Using it to prototype some low level controllers today, as a
         | matter of fact!
        
           | roflyear wrote:
           | It's better-than-senior at a some things, but worse-than-
           | junior at a lot of things.
        
           | UncleOxidant wrote:
           | Claude and Gemini are decent at it as well. I was surprised
           | when I asked claude (and this was several months back) to
           | come up with a testbench for some very old, poorly documented
           | verilog. It did a very decent job for a first-cut testbench.
           | It even collected common, recurring code into verilog tasks
           | (functions) which really surprised me at the time.
        
         | xhevahir wrote:
         | This attitude is depressingly common in lots of professional,
         | white-collar industries I'm afraid. I just came from the /r/law
         | subreddit and was amazed at the kneejerk dismissal there of
         | Dario Amodei's recent comments about legal work, and of those
         | commenters who took them seriously. It's probably as much a
         | coping mechanism as it is complacency, but, either way, it
         | bodes very poorly for our future efforts at mitigating whatever
         | economic and social upheaval is coming.
        
           | garciasn wrote:
           | This is the response to most new technologies; folks simply
           | don't want to accept the future before the ramifications
           | truly hit. If technology folk cannot see the INCREDIBLE LEAP
           | FORWARD made by LLMs since ChatGPT came on the market,
           | they're not seeing the forest through the trees because their
           | heads are buried in the sand.
           | 
           | LLMs for coding are not even close to imperfect, yet, but the
           | saturation curves are not flattening out; not by a long shot.
           | We are living in a moment and we need to come to terms with
           | it as the work continues to develop; and, we need to adapt
           | and quickly in order to better understand what our place will
           | become as this nascent tech continues its meteoric trajectory
           | toward an entirely new world.
        
             | bgwalter wrote:
             | Adapt to your manager at bigcorp who is hyping the tech
             | because it gives him something to do? No open source
             | project is using the useless LLM shackles.
        
               | xandrius wrote:
               | As if you'd know if they did.
        
               | jdiff wrote:
               | Why would we not? If they were so effective, their
               | effectiveness would be apparent, inarguable, and those
               | making use of it would advertise it as a demonstration of
               | just that. Even if there were some sort of social stigma
               | against it, AI has enough proponents to produce copious
               | amounts of counterarguments through evidence all on their
               | own.
               | 
               | Instead, we have a tiny handful of one-off events that
               | were laboriously tuned and tweaked and massaged over
               | extended periods of time, and a flood of slop in the form
               | of broken patches, bloated and misleading issues, and
               | nonsense bug bounty attempts.
        
             | eikenberry wrote:
             | I don't think it is only (or even mostly) not wanting to
             | accept it, I think it is at least equal measure just plain
             | skepticism. We've seen all sorts of wild statements about
             | how much something is going to revolutionize X and then
             | turns out to be nothing. Most people disbelieve these sorts
             | of claims until they see real evidence for themselves...
             | and that is a good default position.
        
           | spamizbad wrote:
           | I think it's pretty reasonable to take a CEO's - any CEO in
           | any industry - statements with a grain of salt. They are
           | under tremendous pressure to paint the most rosy picture
           | possible of their future. They actually need you to "believe"
           | just as much as their team needs to deliver.
        
           | golergka wrote:
           | Lawyers say those things and then one law firm after another
           | is frantically looking for a contractor to overpay them to
           | install local RAG and chatbot combo.
        
         | layer8 wrote:
         | Programmers derided programming languages (too inefficient, too
         | inflexible, too dumbing-down) when assembly was still the
         | default. That phenomenon is at the same time entirely to be
         | expected but also says little about the actual qualities of the
         | new technology.
        
         | parliament32 wrote:
         | I'd like to agree with you and remain optimistic, but so much
         | tech has promised the moon and stagnated into oblivion that I
         | just don't have any optimism left to give. I don't know if
         | you're old enough, but remember when speech-to-text was the
         | next big thing? DragonSpeak was released in 1997, everyone was
         | losing their minds about dictating letters/documents in MS
         | Word, and we were promised that THIS would be the key interface
         | for computing evermore. And.. 27 years later, talking to the
         | latest Siri, it makes just as many mistakes as it did back
         | then. In messenger applications people are sending literal
         | voice notes -- audio clips -- back and forth because dictation
         | is so unreliable. And audio clips are possibly the worst
         | interface for communication ever (no searching, etc).
         | 
         | Remember how blockchain was going to change the world? Web3?
         | IoT? Etc etc.
         | 
         | I've been through enough of these cycles to understand that,
         | while the AI gimmick is cool and all, we're probably at the
         | local maximum. The reliability won't improve much from here
         | (hallucinations etc), while the costs to run it will stay high.
         | The final tombstone will be when the AI companies stop running
         | at a loss and actually charge for the massive costs associated
         | with running these models.
        
           | some_random wrote:
           | How can you possibly look at what LLMs are doing and the
           | progress made in the last ~3 years and equate it to crypto
           | bullshit? Also it's super weird to include IoT in there,
           | seeing as it has become all but ubiquitous.
        
       | palavrov wrote:
       | From my experience AI for coders is multiplier of the coder
       | skills. It will allow you to faster solve problems or add bugs.
       | But so far will not make you a better coder than you are.
        
       | AlotOfReading wrote:
       | Unrelated to the LLM discussion, but a hash function function is
       | the wrong construction for the accumulator solution. The hashing
       | part increases the probability that A and B have a collision that
       | leads to a false negative here. Instead, you want a random
       | invertible mapping, which guarantees that no two pointers will
       | "hash" to the same value, while distributing the bits. Splitmix64
       | is a nice one, and I believe the murmurhash3 finalizer is
       | invertible, as well as some of the xorshift RNGs if you avoid the
       | degenerate zero cycle.
        
         | antirez wrote:
         | Any Feistel Network has the property you stated actually, and
         | this was one of the approaches I was thinking using as I can
         | have the seed as part of the non linear transformation of the
         | Feistel Network. However I'm not sure that this actually
         | decreases the probability of A xor B xor C xor D being
         | accidentally zero, bacause the problem with pointers is that
         | they may change only for a small part. When you using hashing
         | because of avalanche effect this is going a lot harder since
         | you are no longer xoring the pointer structure.
         | 
         | What I mean is that you are right assuming we use a
         | transformation that still while revertible has avalanche
         | effect. Btw in practical terms I doubt there are practical
         | differences.
        
           | AlotOfReading wrote:
           | You can guarantee that the probability is the theoretical
           | minimum with a bijection. I think that would be 2^-N since
           | it's just the case where everything's on a maximum length
           | cycle, but I haven't thought about it hard enough to be
           | completely certain.
           | 
           | A good hash function intentionally won't hit that level, but
           | it should be close enough not to matter with 64 bit pointers.
           | 32 bits is small enough that I'd have concerns at scale.
        
       | agumonkey wrote:
       | There's also the subset of devs who are just bored, LLMs will end
       | up as an easier StackOverflow and if the solution is not one
       | script away, then you're back to square one. I already had a few
       | of "well, uhm, chatGPT told me what you said basically".
        
       | jonator wrote:
       | I think will will increasingly be orchestrators. Like at a
       | symphony. Previously, most humans were required to be on the
       | floor playing the individual instruments, but now, with AI,
       | everyone can be their own composer.
        
       | prmph wrote:
       | There's something fundamental here.
       | 
       | There is a principle (I forget where I encountered it) that it is
       | not code itself that is valuable, but the knowledge of a specific
       | domain that an engineering team develops as they tackle a
       | project. So code itself is a liability, but the domain knowledge
       | is what is valuable. This makes sense to me and matched my long
       | experience with software projects.
       | 
       | So, if we are entrusting coding to LLMs, how will that value
       | develop? And if we want to use LLMs but at the same time develop
       | the domain acumen, that means we would have to architects things
       | and hand them over to LLMs to implement, thoroughly check what
       | they produce, and generally guide them carefully. In that case
       | they are not saving much time.
        
         | jonator wrote:
         | I believe it will raise the standard of what is valuable. Now
         | that LLMs can now handle what we consider "mundane" parts of
         | building a project (boilerplate), humans can dedicate focused
         | efforts to the higher impact areas of innovation and problem
         | solving. As LLMs get better, this bar simply continues to rise.
        
       | ntonozzi wrote:
       | If you care that much about having correct data you could just do
       | a SHA-256 of the whole thing. Or an HMAC. It would probably be
       | really fast. If you don't care much you can just do murmur hash
       | of the serialized data. You don't really need to verify data
       | structure properties if you know the serialized data is correct.
        
       | loudmax wrote:
       | Companies that leverage LLMs and AIs to let their employees be
       | more productive will thrive.
       | 
       | Companies that try to replace their employees with LLMs and AIs
       | will fail.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, all that's in the long run. In the near term, some
       | CEOs and management teams will profit from the short term
       | valuations as they squander their companies' future growth on
       | short-sighted staff cuts.
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | Very well said. Using code assistance is going to be table
         | stakes moving forward, not something that can replace people.
         | It's not like competitors can't also purchase AI subscriptions.
        
           | bbarn wrote:
           | Honestly, if you're not doing it now, you're behind. The
           | sheer amount of time savings using it smartly can give you to
           | allow you to focus on the parts that actually matter is
           | massive.
        
             | kweingar wrote:
             | If progress continues at the rate that AI boosters expect,
             | then soon you won't have to use them smartly to get value
             | (all existing workflows will churn and be replaced by
             | newer, smarter workflows within months), and everybody who
             | is behind will immediately catch up the moment they start
             | to use the tool.
        
         | joshdavham wrote:
         | > In the near term, some CEOs and management teams will profit
         | from the short term valuations
         | 
         | That's actually really interesting to think about. The idea
         | that doing something counter-productive like trying to replace
         | employees with AI (which will cause problems), may actually
         | benefit the company in terms of valuations in the short run. So
         | in effect, they're hurting and helping the company at the same
         | time.
        
           | to11mtm wrote:
           | Hey if the check clears for the bonus they got for hitting
           | 'reduce costs in the IT department', they often bail before
           | things rear their ugly head, or in the ugly case, Reality
           | Distortion Field's the entire org into making the bad anti
           | patterns permanent, even while acknowledging the
           | cost/delivery/quality inefficiencies[0].
           | 
           | This is especially prevalent in waterfall orgs that refuse
           | change. Body shops are more than happy to waste a huge
           | portion of their billable hours on planning meetings and
           | roadmap revisions as the obviousness of the mythical man
           | month comes to bear on the org.
           | 
           | Corners get cut to meet deadlines, because the people who
           | started/perpetuated whatever myth need to save their skins
           | (and hopefully continue to get bonuses.)
           | 
           | The engineers become a scapegoat for the org's management
           | problems (And watch, it very likely will happen at some shops
           | with the 'AI push'). In the nasty cases, the org actively
           | disempowers engineers in the process[0][1].
           | 
           | [0] - At one shop, there was grief we got that we hadn't
           | shipped a feature, but the only reason we hadn't, was IT was
           | not allowed to decide between a set of radio buttons or a
           | drop-down on a screen. Hell I got _yelled at_ for just making
           | the change locally and sending screenshots.
           | 
           | [1] - At more than one shop, FTE devs were responsible for
           | providing support for code written by offshore _that they
           | were never even given the opportunity to review_. And hell
           | yes myself and others pushed for change, but it 's never been
           | a simple change. It almost always is 'GLWT'->'You get to
           | review the final delivery but get 2 days'->'You get to review
           | the set of changes'->'Ok you can review their sprint'->'OK
           | just start reviewing every PR'.
        
         | bdbenton5255 wrote:
         | That's really it. These tools are useful as assistants to
         | programmers but do not replace an actual programmer. The right
         | course is to embrace the technology moderately rather than
         | reject it completely or bet on it replacing workers.
        
       | janalsncm wrote:
       | Software engineering is in the painful position of needing to
       | explain the value of their job to management. It sucks because
       | now we need to pull out these anecdotes of solving difficult
       | bugs, with the implication that AI can't handle it.
       | 
       | We have never been good at confronting the follies of management.
       | The Leetcode interview process is idiotic but we go along with
       | it. Ironically LC was one of the first victims of AI, but this is
       | even more of an issue for management that things SWEs solve
       | Leetcodes all day.
       | 
       | Ultimately I believe this is something that will take a cycle for
       | business to figure out by failing. When businesses will figure
       | out that 10 good engineers + AI always beats 5 + AI, it will
       | become table stakes rather than something that replaces people.
       | 
       | Your competitor who didn't just fire a ton of SWEs? Turns out
       | they can pay for Cursor subscriptions too, and now they are
       | moving faster than you.
        
       | zonethundery wrote:
       | No doubt the headline's claim is true, but Claude just wrote a
       | working MCP serving up the last 10 years of my employer's work
       | product. For $13 in api credits.
       | 
       | While technically capable of building it on my own, development
       | is not my day job and there are enough dumb parts of the problem
       | my p(success) hand-writing it would have been abysmal.
       | 
       | With rose-tinted glasses on, maybe LLM's exponentially expand the
       | amount of software written and the net societal benefit of
       | technology.
        
       | headelf wrote:
       | What do you mean "Still"? We've only had LLMs writing code for
       | 1.5 years... at this rate it won't be long.
        
         | cess11 wrote:
         | More like five years. It's been around for much longer than a
         | lot of people feel it has for some reason.
        
       | nixpulvis wrote:
       | The number one use case for AI for me as a programmer is still
       | help finding functions which are named something I didn't expect
       | as I'm learning a new language/framework/library.
       | 
       | Doing the actual thinking is generally not the part I need too
       | much help with. Though it can replace googling info in domains
       | I'm less familiar with. The thing is, I don't trust the results
       | as much and end up needing to verify it anyways. If anything AI
       | has made this harder, since I feel searching the web for
       | authoritative, expert information has become harder as of late.
        
         | taormina wrote:
         | My problem with this usage is that the LLMs seem equally likely
         | to make up a function they wish existed. When questioned about
         | the seeming-too-convenient method they will usually admit to
         | having made it up on the spot. (This happens a lot in
         | Flutter/Flame land, I'm sure it's better at something more
         | mainstream like Python?) That being said, I do agree that using
         | it as supplemental documentation is one of the better usecases
         | I have for it.
        
       | foobarian wrote:
       | I find LLMs a fantastic frontend to StackOverflow. But agree with
       | OP it's not an apples-to-apples replacement for the human agent.
        
       | 3cats-in-a-coat wrote:
       | "Better" is relative to context. It's a multi-dimensional metric
       | flattened to a single comparison. And humans don't always win
       | that comparison.
       | 
       | LLMs are faster, and when the task can be synthetically tested
       | for correctness, and you can build up to it heuristically, humans
       | can't compete. I can't spit out a full game in 5 minutes, can
       | you?
       | 
       | LLMs are also cheaper.
       | 
       | LLMs are also obedient and don't get sick, and don't sleep.
       | 
       | Humans are still better by other criteria. But none of this
       | matters. All disruptions start from the low end, and climb from
       | there. The climbing is rapid and unstoppable.
        
       | dbacar wrote:
       | I disagree--'human coders' is a broad and overly general term.
       | Sure, Antirez might believe he's better than AI when it comes to
       | coding Redis internals , but across the broader programming
       | landscape--spanning hundreds of languages, paradigms, and
       | techniques--I'm confident AI has the upper hand.
        
         | EpicEng wrote:
         | What does the number of buzzwords and frameworks on a resume
         | matter? Engineering is so much more than that it's not even
         | worth mentioning. You're comparison is on the easiest aspect of
         | what we do.
         | 
         | Unless you're a web dev. Then youre right and will be replaced
         | soon enough. Guess why.
        
           | dbacar wrote:
           | Not everyone builds Redis at home/work. So you do the math.
           | And now Antirez himself is feeding the beast by himself.
        
         | nthingtohide wrote:
         | Do you want to measure antirez and AI on a spider diagram,
         | generally used to evaluate employee? Are you ignoring why
         | society opted for division of work and specialization?
        
           | dbacar wrote:
           | They are not investing billions on it so a high schooler can
           | do his term paper on it, is is already much more than a
           | generalist. It might be like a very good sidekick for now,
           | but that is not the plan.
        
       | jbellis wrote:
       | But Human+Ai is far more productive than Human alone, and more
       | fun, too. I think antirez would agree, or he wouldn't bother
       | using Gemini.
       | 
       | I built Brokk to maximize the ability of humans to effectively
       | supervise their AI minions. Not a VS code plugin, we need
       | something new. https://brokk.ai
        
       | callamdelaney wrote:
       | LLMs will never be better than humans on the basis that LLMs are
       | just a shitty copy of human code.
        
         | danielbln wrote:
         | I think they can be an excellent copy of human code. Are they
         | great at novel out-of-training-distribution tasks? Definitely
         | not, they suck at them. Yet I'd argue that most problems aren't
         | novel, at most they are some recombination of prior problems.
        
       | elzbardico wrote:
       | I use LLMs a lot, and call me arrogant, but every time I see a
       | developer saying that LLMs will substitute them, I think they are
       | probably shitty developers.
        
         | Fernicia wrote:
         | If it automates 1/5th of your work, then what's unreasonable
         | about thinking that your team could be 4 developers instead of
         | 5?
        
           | archagon wrote:
           | This just feels like another form of the mythical man month
           | argument.
        
       | kurofune wrote:
       | The fact that we are debating this topic at all is indicative of
       | how far LLMs have come in such a short time. I find them
       | incredibly useful tools that vastly enhance my productivity and
       | curiosity, and I'm really grateful for them.
        
       | DrJid wrote:
       | I never quite understand these articles though. It's not about
       | Humans vs. AI.
       | 
       | It's about Humans vs. Humans+AI
       | 
       | and 4/5, Humans+AI > Humans.
        
       | zb3 wrote:
       | Speak for yourself..
        
       | AstroBen wrote:
       | Better than LLMs.. for now. I'm endlessly critical of the AI hype
       | but the truth here is that no-one has any idea what's going to
       | happen 3-10 years from now. It's a very quickly changing space
       | with a lot of really smart people working on it. We've seen the
       | potential
       | 
       | Maybe LLMs completely trivialize all coding. The potential for
       | this _is_ there
       | 
       | Maybe progress slows to a snails pace, the VC money runs out and
       | companies massively raise prices making it not worth it to use
       | 
       | No one knows. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. Maybe save some
       | money just in case
        
       | acquisitionsilk wrote:
       | It is quite heartening to see so many people care about "good
       | code". I fear it will make no difference.
       | 
       | The problem is that the software world got eaten up by the
       | business world many years ago. I'm not sure at what point
       | exactly, or if the writing was already on the wall when Bill
       | Gates' wrote his open letter to hobbyists in 1976.
       | 
       | The question is whether shareholders and managers will accept
       | less good code. I don't see how it would be logical to expect
       | anything else, as long as profit lines go up why would they care.
       | 
       | Short of some sort of cultural pushback from developers or users,
       | we're cooked, as the youth say.
        
         | JackSlateur wrote:
         | Code is meant to power your business
         | 
         | Bad code leads to bad business
         | 
         | This makes me think of hosting departement; You know, which
         | people who are using vmware, physical firewalls, dpi proxies
         | and whatnot;
         | 
         | On the other edge, you have public cloud providers, which are
         | using qemu, netfilter, dumb networking devices and stuff
         | 
         | Who got eaten by whom, nobody could have guessed ..
        
       | 65 wrote:
       | AI is good for people who have given up, who don't give a shit
       | about anything anymore.
       | 
       | You know, those who don't care about learning and solving
       | problems, gaining real experience they can use to solve problems
       | even faster in the future, faster than any AI slop.
        
       | ModernMech wrote:
       | The other day an LLM told me that in Python, you have to name
       | your files the same as the class name, and that you can only have
       | one class per file. So... yeah, let's replace the entire dev team
       | with LLMs, what could go wrong?
        
       | fspoto98 wrote:
       | Yes i agree:D
        
       | orangebread wrote:
       | It's that time again where a dev writes a blog post coping.
        
       | anjc wrote:
       | Gemini gives instant, adaptive, expert solutions to an esoteric
       | and complex problem, and commenters here are still likening LLMs
       | to junior coders.
       | 
       | Glad to see the author acknowledges their usefulness and
       | limitations so far.
        
       | Poortold wrote:
       | For coding playwright automation it has use cases. Especially if
       | you template out function patterns. Though I never use it to
       | write logic as AI is just ass at that. If I wanted a shitty if
       | else chain I'd ask the intern to code it
        
       | marcosno wrote:
       | LLMs can be very creative, when pushed. In order to find a
       | creative solution, like antirez needed, there are several tricks
       | I use:
       | 
       | Increase the temperature of the LLMs.
       | 
       | Ask several LLMs, each several time the same question, with tiny
       | variations. Then collect all answers, and do a second/third round
       | asking each LLM to review all collected answers and improve.
       | 
       | Add random constraints, one constraints per question. For
       | example, to LLM: can you do this with 1 bit per X. Do this in
       | O(n). Do this using linked lists only. Do this with only 1k
       | memory. Do this while splitting the task to 1000 parallel
       | threads, etc.
       | 
       | This usually kicks the LLM out of its confort zone, into creative
       | solutions.
        
         | dwringer wrote:
         | Definitely a lot to be said for these ideas, even just that it
         | helps to start a fresh chat and ask the same question in a
         | better way a few times (using the quality of response to gauge
         | what might be "better"). I have found if I do this a few times
         | and Gemini strikes out, I've manually optimized the question by
         | this point that I can drop it into Claude and get a good
         | working solution. Conversely, having a discussion with the LLM
         | about the potential solution, letting it hold on to the context
         | as described in TFA, has in my experience caused the models to
         | pretty universally end up stuck in a rut sooner or later and
         | become counterproductive to work with. Not to mention that way
         | eats up a ton of api usage allotment.
        
       | bouncycastle wrote:
       | Last night I spent hours fighting o3.
       | 
       | I never made a Dockerfile in my life, so I thought it would be
       | faster just getting o3 to point to the GitHub repo and let it
       | figure out, rather than me reading the docs and building it
       | myself.
       | 
       | I spent hours debugging the file it gave me... It kept on adding
       | hallucinations for things that didn't exist, and
       | removing/rewriting other parts, and other big mistakes like
       | understanding the difference between python3 and python and the
       | intricacies with that.
       | 
       | Finally I gave up and Googled some docs instead. Fixed my file in
       | minutes and was able to jump into the container and debug the
       | rest of the issues. AI is great, but it's not a tool to end all.
       | You still need someone who is awake at the wheel.
        
         | throwaway314155 wrote:
         | Pro-tip: Check out Claude or Gemini. They hallucinate far less
         | on coding tasks. Alternatively, enable internet search on o3
         | which boosts its ability to reference online documentation and
         | real world usage examples.
         | 
         | I get having a bad taste in your mouth but these tools _aren't
         | _ magic and do have something of a steep learning curve in
         | order to get the most out of them. Not dissimilar from
         | vim/emacs (or lots of dev tooling).
        
       | gxs wrote:
       | Argh people are insufferable about this subject
       | 
       | This stuff is still in its infancy, of course its not perfect
       | 
       | But its already USEFUL and it CAN do a lot of stuff - just not
       | all types of stuff and it still can mess up the stuff that it can
       | do
       | 
       | It's that simple
       | 
       | The point is that overtime it'll get better and better
       | 
       | Reminds me of self driving cars and or even just general
       | automation back in the day - the complaint has always been that a
       | human could do it better and at some point those people just went
       | away because it stopped being true
       | 
       | Another example is automated mail sorting by the post office. The
       | gripe was always humans will always be able to do it better -
       | true, in the meantime the post office reduced the facilities with
       | humans that did this to just one
        
       | bachmeier wrote:
       | I suspect humans will always be critical to programming. Improved
       | technology won't matter if the economics isn't there.
       | 
       | LLMs are great as assistants. Just today, Copilot told me it's
       | there to do the "tedious and repetitive" parts so I can focus my
       | energy on the "interesting" parts. That's great. They do the
       | things every programmer hates having to do. I'm more productive
       | in the best possible way.
       | 
       | But ask it to do too much and it'll return error-ridden garbage
       | filled with hallucinations, or just never finish the task. The
       | economic case for further gains has diminished greatly while the
       | cost of those gains rises.
       | 
       | Automation killed tons of manufacturing jobs, and we're seeing
       | something similar in programming, but keep in mind that the
       | number of people still working in manufacturing is 60% of the
       | peak, and those jobs are much better than the ones in the 1960s
       | and 1970s.
        
         | noslenwerdna wrote:
         | Sure, it's just that the era of super high paying programming
         | jobs may be over.
         | 
         | And also, manufacturing jobs have greatly changed. And the
         | effect is not even, I imagine. Some types of manufacturing jobs
         | are just gone.
        
           | bachmeier wrote:
           | > the era of super high paying programming jobs may be over.
           | 
           | Probably, but I'm not sure that had much to do with AI.
           | 
           | > Some types of manufacturing jobs are just gone
           | 
           | The manufacturing work that was automated is not exactly the
           | kind of work people want to do. I briefly did some of that
           | work. Briefly because it was truly awful.
        
       | failrate wrote:
       | LLMs are using the corpus of existing software source code. Most
       | software source code is just North of unworkable garbage. Garbage
       | in, garbage out.
        
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