[HN Gopher] Japan and the Birth of Modern Shipbuilding
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       Japan and the Birth of Modern Shipbuilding
        
       Author : m463
       Score  : 24 points
       Date   : 2025-05-23 18:30 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.construction-physics.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.construction-physics.com)
        
       | alephnerd wrote:
       | Something I wish was discussed in the article was the fact that
       | shipbuilding salaries in Japan, while low compared to developed
       | countries at the time, was around 160% the average salary a
       | Japanese employee could demand in the post-war era [0]
       | 
       | A similar relative difference didn't seem to exist in the Canada
       | (which I'm using to extrapolate for the US) around that time [1].
       | 
       | It appears that this incentivized higher skilled workers to work
       | in the shipbuilding and steel industry in post-war Japan.
       | Essentially, shipbuilding in Japan in the 50s and 60s would have
       | been the equivalent of being a Software Engineer in the US today,
       | and it was treated as an engineering/STEM disciple [2] instead of
       | as a blue collar semi-skilled discipline in the US.
       | 
       | I can safely say a similar trend happened in South Korea in the
       | 1970s-80s as well according to one of my professors back in the
       | day who specifically specialized in Korea and Japan policy and
       | advised Hyundai and Samsung back then, which lead to a similar
       | decrease in shipbuilding capacity in Japan.
       | 
       | Unsurprisingly, this trend can be seen to this day in any
       | industry - be it chip design, VFX, battery manufacturing, etc.
       | 
       | I've noticed a similar trend in distributed
       | systems/infra/os/networking/cybersecurity as well, where American
       | schools skip teaching systems or architecture fundamentals in
       | order to overindex on Theory/Applied Math whereas NAND-to-Tetris
       | is the default philosophy in programs in Israel, India, and the
       | CEE.
       | 
       | [0] - https://www.jstor.org/stable/2519602
       | 
       | [1] -
       | https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2017/statc...
       | 
       | [2] -
       | https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1966/august/japan...
        
         | palmotea wrote:
         | > Something I wish was discussed in the article was the fact
         | that shipbuilding salaries in Japan, while low compared to
         | developed countries at the time, was around 160% the median
         | salary a Japanese employee could demand in the post-war era [0]
         | ... It appears that this incentivized higher skilled workers to
         | work in the shipbuilding and steel industry in post-war Japan.
         | 
         | It would be interesting to use wage and salary controls to
         | drive talented workers out of certain industries and into more
         | productive ones. For instance, cap total compensation and
         | benefits for people working in advertising (including adtech)
         | at say, $130k/year. People working on cryptocurrency could be
         | capped at 2x minimum wage. It's sometimes hard to identify
         | industries that should be supported, but it seems like it would
         | be much easier to identify the handful of well-compensated but
         | problematic industries.
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | > seems like it would be much easier to identify the handful
           | of well-compensated but problematic industries
           | 
           | That would only incentivize a brain drain. A good example of
           | this is software engineering in UK, Germany, Canada, South
           | Korea, and Japan, as SWE salaries in those countries are not
           | significantly different compared to other vocations.
           | 
           | Also, I'm not a fan of cryptocurrencies, but they are one of
           | the few industries left in the US that incentivizes NAND-to-
           | Tetris level knowledge, and it did help subsidize the GPU
           | buildout that made foundational models easier to train cost
           | effectively.
           | 
           | You can't "command economy" innovation - it can only be
           | nudged.
           | 
           | The solution I've seen most industrial planners use is
           | provide tax holidays and subsidizes for targeted industries,
           | as this helps reduce the upfront cost of hiring, and does
           | give wiggle room to raise compensation. Linking that with
           | production, timeline locks, or even tariffs tends to help
           | force an ecosystem to develop - which is what Japan used to
           | build their shipbuilding and automotive industries in the
           | post-war era.
        
             | palmotea wrote:
             | > Also, I'm not a fan of cryptocurrencies, but they are one
             | of the few industries left in the US that incentivizes
             | NAND-to-Tetris level knowledge,
             | 
             | And what does it do with that knowledge?
             | 
             | > and it did help subsidize the GPU buildout that made
             | foundational models easier to train cost effectively.
             | 
             | Crypto and AI both use GPUs, but I'm not under the
             | impression that AI people repurposed old crypto mines for
             | anything (e.g. crypto mines used janky racks of consumer
             | GPUs, AI typically uses specialized high-end equipment).
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | > And what does it do with that knowledge?
               | 
               | Notice how I talked about HPC, distributed systems, and
               | cybersecurity in my comment?
               | 
               | > I'm not under the impression that AI people repurposed
               | old crypto mines for anything
               | 
               | The crypto boom helped incentivize the scaling out of GPU
               | design and fabrication, just like how video games helped
               | with the first iteration in the 2000s.
               | 
               | There's a reason the concept of "dual use technology" has
               | gained currency
        
           | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
           | >It's sometimes hard to identify industries that should be
           | supported,
           | 
           | It's sometimes controversial to claim this industry or that
           | industry should be pursued at a national level, but this
           | isn't the same thing as _difficult_. It 's just that politics
           | gets in the way.
           | 
           | And yes, shipbuilding should be one of those industries we
           | pursue.
           | 
           | For that matter, I think you may have nailed the one industry
           | we should punish.
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | Japan, Korea, and China kind of did this, but not via direct
           | wage and salary controls. Window guidance is the informal
           | practice where government/finance officials tell banks which
           | industries to prefer for loans.
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Window_guidance
           | 
           | It only really works where capital markets are undeveloped or
           | heavily restricted; and it does starve out the rest of the
           | economy, which is bad for the not-chosen-few (e.g. South
           | Korea's chaebols) and can also backfire if you end up being
           | bad at picking winners.
        
             | alephnerd wrote:
             | Window guidance doesn't have a great correlation with wage
             | power, as was seen with the loss of shipbuilding capacity
             | in Japan in the 1980s to South Korea as wages rose leading
             | to automation (remember the whole Japanese "robots" trend).
        
       | DrNosferatu wrote:
       | The ongoing narrative in the EU is that the State shouldn't get
       | involved in the Economy - chiefly among the "liberal economics"
       | parties.
       | 
       | That should take a good look at this.
        
         | Analemma_ wrote:
         | I've never seen a convincing explanation from the laissez-faire
         | neoliberal crowd how their view of the world squares with the
         | fact that _all_ the Asian miracles-- Japan, Taiwan, China,
         | South Korea, Singapore-- involved heavy and widespread state
         | intervention. They generally handwave it away and try to change
         | the subject as quickly as possible.
        
       | rufus_foreman wrote:
       | "At the height of the war the US was producing nearly 90% of the
       | world's ships. By the 1950s, it produced just over 2%"
        
       | dumdedum123 wrote:
       | That's an interesting take. I read the article and it sounds like
       | the US invented modern shipbuilding during WW2, and the Japanese
       | just copied it and ran with it. But ok.
        
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