[HN Gopher] Alberta separatism push roils Canada
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       Alberta separatism push roils Canada
        
       Author : paulpauper
       Score  : 52 points
       Date   : 2025-05-23 17:22 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | jleyank wrote:
       | Before going to secede, Alberta should do what Quebec has done
       | and "practise" being a country: collect its own taxes, run its
       | own police, run its own retirement system, control provincial
       | immigration, ... This will give them a better idea what will be
       | required to go it alone, and test whether their low-tax haven
       | will survive leaving Canada.
        
         | wagwang wrote:
         | alberta is a net tax contributor unlike an annoying unnamed
         | province
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | For maybe another 10 more years, tops. With the world adding
           | > 1TW of solar every year and > 20 million EV's every year,
           | the demand for oil is going to drop. Alberta oilsands oil has
           | the most expensive production costs of any major oil
           | production area, which means they're the marginal producer,
           | the first to shut down. Saudi Arabia with their cheap light
           | oil is going to be making money on oil for at least 50 years,
           | but Alberta will be lucky to get 10 more.
        
             | bluefirebrand wrote:
             | Alberta is nothing but empty space and sunshine. It is a
             | prime location for Solar
             | 
             | It will continue to be an energy juggernaut
        
               | SoftTalker wrote:
               | During the summertime maybe? It's pretty far north to
               | generate much from solar in the wintertime isn't it?
        
               | bluefirebrand wrote:
               | I'm not a solar expert, but even during winter we get
               | tons of sun, just fewer hours per day
               | 
               | Northern Alberta would probably not do very good, but
               | southern Alberta would be fine I'm sure
        
               | johnwalkr wrote:
               | It's not hard to look this up. It's not just fewer hours
               | per day, latitude matters a lot. If you look at yearly
               | totals[1] Alberta looks better than BC but not better
               | than any other neighbors to the South or East. All its
               | neighbors also have plenty of space. Plus, total energy
               | consumption (electricity plus gas) is probably highest in
               | winter when solar input is lowest. I think it's hard to
               | argue Alberta will become an exporter of solar-derived
               | power.
               | 
               | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#/media/
               | File:W...
        
               | Marsymars wrote:
               | In Calgary I rule-of-thumb 10x less solar energy in
               | December than in June.
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | Alberta/Canada exports oil which earns it forex. Which
               | allows it to buy stuff from other countries. Exporting
               | solar electricity to earn forex will earn next to
               | nothing.
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | Not really, the level of production in the winter would
               | be very low, and no batteries can fix that.
               | 
               | They have cheap gas though, and that could be used in the
               | winter.
        
               | BJones12 wrote:
               | > the level of production in the winter would be very
               | low, and no batteries can fix that
               | 
               | But overbuilding can. It's already a fairly common idea.
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | You'd need to overbuild by a ridiculous amount. I don't
               | think it's currently close to viable.
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | Alberta's solar energy might make BC rich. The price of
               | electricity while the sun is shining is very low. The
               | combination of Alberta solar during the daytime and BC
               | hydro at night is valuable, but it's the hydro that'll
               | get the vast bulk of the dollars.
               | 
               | And Alberta is quite far from big electricity markets.
               | It's far cheaper to put overbuild solar in places with
               | poor sunshine than it is to build a HVDC line.
               | 
               | Plus Alberta will have to compete with Arizona and
               | neighboring states, which have even more sunshine than
               | Alberta does.
        
             | badc0ffee wrote:
             | > Alberta oilsands oil has the most expensive production
             | costs of any major oil production area, which means they're
             | the marginal producer, the first to shut down
             | 
             | This has not been true for years. Oil sands costs are lower
             | than US shale costs:
             | https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-
             | canadian...
             | 
             | The oil sands projects are longer-lived (no need to
             | continually dig new wells), and labour costs have been
             | optimized after the price shock of 2014.
        
               | landl0rd wrote:
               | Admittedly they are benefiting mostly from American
               | refining tech in this sense. They would have a tough time
               | negotiating advantageous trade terms on their own and not
               | many refineries can handle it, meaning they are mostly
               | dependent on pipelines to America to make their oil
               | saleable.
        
             | bdcravens wrote:
             | A lot of this may hinge on whether the US's drive to end
             | subsidies for solar and EVs stick and if they take hold
             | elsewhere.
        
           | Tiktaalik wrote:
           | All this means is that the average income of citizens in
           | Alberta is dramatically higher than other provinces and so
           | Alberta pays more in the federal taxes that are applied
           | uniformly to everyone.
           | 
           | I'm sure the other provinces also wish they had such high
           | paying jobs and contributed more in taxes!
           | 
           | Avg individual income Alberta: 74,237
           | 
           | Avg individual income New Brunswick: 57,336.
        
             | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
             | Yeah, this whole "Alberta gives Quebec money" complaint is
             | in fact just how federal income, in the form of income tax,
             | is distributed and is like getting upset that your
             | provincial taxes are paying for something in Red Deer when
             | you live in Calgary.
        
         | badc0ffee wrote:
         | The UCP (who seem to have no official opinion on separation)
         | have already begun some of this, with an Alberta pension plan
         | and a new Alberta police force.
         | 
         | (Edit: to be clear, these are just proposals the government is
         | exploring at this point.)
         | 
         | > test whether their low-tax haven will survive leaving Canada.
         | 
         | The math already makes sense from a tax perspective. Alberta is
         | a net contributor to the rest of the country, mainly due to
         | resource royalties.
         | 
         | But to me, the question is whether that would still hold when
         | it has to work out trade deals with two neighbouring countries,
         | while small (pop. 5 million), and landlocked.
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | > The UCP (who seem to have no official opinion on
           | separation) have already begun some of this, with an Alberta
           | pension plan and a new Alberta police force.
           | 
           | To be clear, none of this has been enacted. The UCP love to
           | threaten, but those initiatives have not proven to be popular
           | with Albertans.
           | 
           | > But to me, the question is whether that would still hold
           | when it has to work out trade deals with two neighbouring
           | countries, while small (pop. 5 million), and landlocked.
           | 
           | And when Alberta needs to take on all the things that the
           | federal government does for them.
        
             | slavik81 wrote:
             | > The UCP love to threaten, but those initiatives have not
             | proven to be popular with Albertans.
             | 
             | Unpopularity didn't stop them from changing the
             | environmental rules to allow a new coal mine in the eastern
             | slopes of the Rockies. The vast majority of Albertans were
             | opposed and they went ahead anyway.
        
           | nonchalantsui wrote:
           | There is no Alberta Pension Plan that exists today. All
           | provinces also already run their own police forces. So there
           | has been no movement on this in Alberta.
        
             | badc0ffee wrote:
             | > There is no Alberta Pension Plan that exists today.
             | 
             | There is a fund (AIMCo) that the government is proposing to
             | convert in to a general pension plan. So far that has not
             | been popular enough to translate into concrete action.
             | 
             | > All provinces also already run their own police forces.
             | 
             | No, rural policing is handled by the RCMP in 8 provinces.
             | Ontario has the OPP and Quebec has SQ.
             | 
             | > So there has been no movement on this in Alberta.
             | 
             | The idea of the police force is more popular with voters
             | than the idea of the pension plan. So, something could come
             | of it: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-
             | plans-to-cre...
        
               | giltron wrote:
               | And the numbers the UCP used from the consulting report
               | were disputed by multiple groups including CPP.
               | 
               | However it appears to not be moving forward anymore.
               | 
               | https://www.benefitsandpensionsmonitor.com/news/industry-
               | new...
        
         | bee_rider wrote:
         | Some clause to this effect could be a nice thing to add to any
         | future unions. Want to leave? Go for it! Run your own services,
         | take your chunk of the national debt and once you've paid it
         | off you are free.
         | 
         | Why are countries begging their regions to stay? It's obviously
         | just a negotiation or political rhetoric. If these movements
         | actually had to take themselves seriously they would
         | immediately dissolve I think.
        
           | projektfu wrote:
           | Because a national identity means more than a temporary
           | convenience, and regions have ups and downs in their
           | fortunes. Why should the rich parts of Alberta fund the poor
           | parts?
        
         | Gothmog69 wrote:
         | Yup this is what the so-called firewall is all about and
         | floating an alberta CPP
        
       | alephnerd wrote:
       | People underestimate the anger that has festered in Alberta,
       | Saskatchewan, and parts of BC due to Pierre Trudeau's National
       | Energy Program [0]. It caused a severe recession across western
       | Canada back in the 80s and 90s leading to the Reform Party
       | movement, Social Credit movement (a proto-MAGA movement), and the
       | BC Liberals (a reform party splinter that uses the Liberal name,
       | and all the liberals got pushed into the BC NDP as a result), and
       | that resentment has festered.
       | 
       | Secession is a pipe dream, but do not underestimate the anger and
       | conservatism in Western Canada outside of Greater Vancouver,
       | Nanaimo, Victoria, Kelwona, and a couple other islands of
       | liberalism in a sea of conservatism - there's no cultural or
       | social difference between Abbotsford and Bellingham (edit:
       | whitcom county, did not realize Bellingham gentrified), or
       | Lethbridge and Great Falls. Western Canada's resource-driven
       | economy also plays a major role in this because for a lot of
       | Canadians it's their only shot at middle class salaries and life.
       | 
       | At least Carney grew up in Alberta during that era, so he can
       | probably avoid the misteps that Justin Trudeau and his father did
       | when dealing with Western Canada.
       | 
       | [0] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program
        
         | earleybird wrote:
         | Let's not forget the Salmon Arm salute :-)
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | Heh. That was a bit before my time, but I spent a couple
           | years in a rust (wood?) belt town in BC as a kid, and the
           | anger and resentment was palpable even then.
           | 
           | The kind of populist anti-business and anti-establishment
           | anger I saw amongst the post-Reform and post-Social Credit
           | guys was the exact same as that which I saw among MAGA all
           | the way back in 2015.
           | 
           | I think Canadians (in reality Ontarians and Quebeckers - but
           | not like they could read English anyhow /s) really
           | underestimate the MAGA style populist alt-right trend.
           | 
           | Stuff like Rebel News was always in the water back west.
           | 
           | It's the exact same type of right-wing I see across NorCal
           | (real NorCal starts north of Yuba), Oregon, Washington,
           | Idaho, and Montana.
           | 
           | The Quebecois alt-right is deep in the FN and Zemmour
           | pipeline as well.
        
             | philipallstar wrote:
             | "alt-right" is a much smaller group than you think it is.
        
         | Fricken wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | Rural Canada was fairly poor back in the day, but being poor
           | doesn't mean you are gullible or some "aw shucks" ingnoramus.
           | 
           | For someone with a partial high school education an Oil job
           | was the only job that would afford them the kind of salary a
           | UT or McGill grad could demand in Toronto or Montreal back in
           | the day.
           | 
           | As such, attacking the ONG industry feels like an attack on
           | livelihoods for a lot of people.
           | 
           | If you turn a culture war into a class war, us liberals and
           | progressives cannot win.
        
             | Fricken wrote:
             | [flagged]
        
               | bondarchuk wrote:
               | What kind of drugs?
        
               | Maxatar wrote:
               | Alberta has been particularly hit hard by the opioid
               | crisis.
        
               | AlexandrB wrote:
               | > Either way their victim complex is preyed upon by an
               | industry that has been working to undermine Canadian
               | unity for decades.
               | 
               | I thought we were taking about Alberta, not Quebec.
        
             | dang wrote:
             | Please don't perpetuate regional flamewar, or any flamewar,
             | on HN. It just makes things worse.
             | 
             | (Your comment would be fine without that first bit.)
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
               | alephnerd wrote:
               | Fair enough! If you can edit/remove the first part I'd
               | appreciate it!
        
               | dang wrote:
               | Ok I've done that and thanks for the kind response!
               | 
               | I'll autocollapse this subthread since it's no longer
               | relevant.
        
           | Teever wrote:
           | It's also worth mentioning the influence of insular religious
           | groups in Alberta. Hutterites, Mennonites, Doukhobors, and
           | Mormons moved to Alberta to escape oppression/oversight and
           | their presence has had a lasting impact on the culture and
           | political structure of Alberta.
        
           | enlightenedfool wrote:
           | We saw in USA how the highly literate people believed they
           | had a functional president for 4 years and even voted for the
           | moronic VP next. That literacy doesn't beat common sense when
           | it comes to politics.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | Please don't do regional flamewar on HN, such as putting down
           | populations.
           | 
           | Like national flamewar and religious flamewar, it's a circle
           | of hell we want to avoid here. You can make your substantive
           | points without it, so please do that instead.
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
         | dehugger wrote:
         | While I agree with your general statement here, are you saying
         | that Abbotsford and Bellingham are both conservative towns?
         | Greater Whatcom county, certainly, but Bellingham is a very
         | liberal city.
         | 
         | Political leaning aside I agree that Western BC and Western WA
         | are nigh identical culturally. Can't speak for anything further
         | east as I don't live there.
        
           | alephnerd wrote:
           | I mean Whatcom county!
           | 
           | Bellingham may have changed over the past few years - last
           | time I spent a significant amount of time there was in the
           | 2000s.
           | 
           | At least on the BC side, other than Nanaimo, the others
           | haven't really shifted from conservative to liberal.
        
         | api wrote:
         | Sounds like the same pattern as the USA. The non-scientific
         | wing of the environmental movement gutted industries across the
         | interior, and in the end all we did was move fossil fuel
         | burning and pollution overseas in exchange for poverty and
         | resentment. (In fact, we probably burn more carbon by
         | manufacturing overseas and then burning a ton of bunker diesel
         | to ship it here on container ships.)
         | 
         | https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions
         | 
         | As you can see these policies did nothing.
         | 
         | Seems to be slowing a bit, probably due to technological
         | improvement. In the end there is only one thing that will
         | reduce CO2 emissions: technologies for generating energy from
         | non-fossil sources that are competitive with fossil fuels.
         | Solar and wind are getting there.
         | 
         | If fossil fuels are still cheaper than other sources, then they
         | will be burned somewhere and energy intensive industries will
         | flock to wherever has the cheapest energy (and labor). The only
         | way to stop this would be a global scale agreement to curtail
         | fossil fuel use, and developing nations would never agree to
         | this.
        
           | pixl97 wrote:
           | >As you can see these policies did nothing.
           | 
           | Yea, if we didn't reduce energy usage in the US the global
           | average would be _far_ higher than it is now. Those factories
           | would have moved out of the US anyway due to labor costs, and
           | higher energy costs. Efficiency in energy production _lowers_
           | costs. You 're probably not old enough to remember how damned
           | bad pollution in the US used to be.
           | 
           | Burning bunker fuel on large ships is insanely efficient per
           | km traveled. Mostly because the amount of material on said
           | ships is staggering.
           | 
           | Also, we've raised those countries overseas out of poverty.
           | We are talking about billions of people. World wide CO2 usage
           | increased because more of the world walked away from farming
           | dirt and is now producing useful economic product.
        
         | Tiktaalik wrote:
         | It wouldn't be accurate at all to paint the BC Liberals as a
         | reform party splinter group. While the party was half taken
         | over by conservatives, rats fleeing their own sinking ship, the
         | reality is that the party up until the last leader Falcon was
         | always lead by individuals with strong Federal Liberal party
         | ties. It's always been a right of centre Liberal party and was
         | clearly even more right wing given its big tent coalition
         | status with Fed Conservatives but labelling it as some sort of
         | Reform Party western grievance party is absolutely a step too
         | far.
         | 
         | The boring reality is that the BC NDP occupied all the space on
         | the left and so the only viable space for the Liberals was more
         | right of centre. Should be noted, not at all an unusual space
         | for a Liberal to be. When the conservative Social Credit party
         | imploded the BC Liberals took them on and it became a defacto
         | two party system with the BC Liberals on the right.
         | 
         | The previous leader Clark kicked the can on a Fed Liberal
         | leadership and we can see already from the actions of Carney
         | that the right of centre Fed Liberals are alive and well.
        
       | oldpersonintx2 wrote:
       | won't happen but the point is to reset the balance of power
       | 
       | basically Alberta will be like Glenn Close from Fatal Attraction:
       | " _You can 't ignore me!_"
       | 
       | but Americans also tend to underestimate or disbelieve that
       | right-wing sentiment exists in Canada
       | 
       | most Americans think Canada is like Berkeley on a continent-
       | scale...Justin Trudeau believed that too and he was reviled
       | eventually
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/cIwx6
        
       | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
       | As an Albertan I really have to wonder who is behind this PR
       | push. Immediately after the election there were people coming to
       | my door, asking about my attitude towards separatism. There's
       | been flyers and news articles, and now there's an article in the
       | NY Times? Considering the relative unpopularity of the movement,
       | whoever is bankrolling this has a big reach and deep pockets.
        
         | mycatisblack wrote:
         | My first thought when reading the title was "divide & conquer"
        
         | api wrote:
         | The West, and especially the US orbit, is obviously under heavy
         | propaganda attack, but the reason it's working is that it's
         | exploiting a deep reservoir of resentment that was already
         | there.
        
           | palmotea wrote:
           | > The West, and especially the US orbit, is obviously under
           | heavy propaganda attack, but the reason it's working is that
           | it's exploiting a deep reservoir of resentment that was
           | already there.
           | 
           | And I bet liberals will focus on the former in an attempt to
           | ignore the latter, just like they did with Trump.
        
             | api wrote:
             | I can't stand Trump and didn't vote for him but I
             | understand why some people did, and people like him will
             | keep getting elected until the rest of the political world
             | removes its head from its ass and realizes that no, they
             | cannot just eat cake. Any politician or movement able to
             | channel the rage that's out there is going to win.
             | 
             | When it comes to foreign influence we need to be asking why
             | people are so angry that they can be swayed by some lame
             | low effort memes and honestly kind of dumb propaganda.
             | Russian, Chinese, and other propaganda is not even very
             | good, but it doesn't have to be. It just has to channel
             | that rage.
             | 
             | As for what's wrong, there's a list but I think the top
             | item on that list is something almost disappointingly
             | boring. I am a huge believer in the housing theory of
             | everything:
             | 
             | https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-
             | every...
        
         | jmward01 wrote:
         | Information warfare is still warfare. Now that we are in the
         | age of information, and disinformation, maybe it is time that
         | countries, and populations, start taking information warfare
         | more seriously. If there really is an entity bankrolling this
         | in an effort to create something that doesn't exist, then what
         | is the appropriate response?
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | _Is it_ unpopular? I grew up in Alberta and know many people
         | who would be happy to separate, going back to my step dad way
         | back in the 90s. Plenty of Albertans also still hold a grudge
         | for the National Energy Program[1] that bankrupted them in the
         | 80s. At the very least, many Albertan 's perceive Queubec
         | separatism as a negotiating tactic that allowed Quebec to
         | secure preferential treatment from Ottawa and would be willing
         | to try the same approach.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | Yes, it's unpopular. There've been no polls that indicate it
           | would have any chance of passing if it came down to a vote. A
           | lot of Albertans love to grumble.
        
             | BJones12 wrote:
             | That's like saying Bernie was unpopular because he couldn't
             | win the primary. He was very popular.
        
               | jszymborski wrote:
               | No, that's like saying Bernie was unpopular because polls
               | of his popularity said he was unpopular.
        
               | nonchalantsui wrote:
               | That's not at all similar. We know exactly how many voted
               | for Bernie.
               | 
               | The only actual test of separatism in albert has been
               | support for the pension plan and that has been so abysmal
               | they've put the entire push on hold.
        
           | BJones12 wrote:
           | As someone who grew up in Ontario, I judge this comment to be
           | 100% accurate.
        
           | hbsbsbsndk wrote:
           | I think it's a "fuck around and find out" situation like
           | Brexit. People love to stomp their feet and complain, but
           | when some big interest group actually organizes the vote and
           | it happens they'll be caught unawares.
           | 
           | People complain about have/have-not provinces, but Alberta
           | would be in a much worse position as a independent nation.
           | There are benefits to Confederation beyond just shuffling tax
           | dollars around.
        
             | aylmao wrote:
             | This certainly sounds to me more like a Texas situation.
             | Independent for about a year, to then join the USA.
        
             | Alupis wrote:
             | As an outsider with no horse in the race, and pays little
             | attention to domestic affairs of foreign nations - has
             | Brexit actually been that awful for people?
             | 
             | For all of the doomsday talk, hand-wringing, and sky-is-
             | falling bluster, nothing substantial/consequential seems to
             | have materialized.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > For all of the doomsday talk, hand-wringing, and sky-
               | is-falling bluster
               | 
               | You have to be careful about these arguments. A lot of
               | them were post-fact rationalisation by Brexiteers who
               | needed to justify their actions, and they did it by
               | erecting strawmen. Nobody said that the sky would be
               | falling. Nobody sane, anyway. What was said was things
               | like "immigration will happen anyway because the UK has a
               | structural need for manpower", which is true and
               | immigration is still increasing; "this will create more
               | red tape rather than less", which it did; "exports will
               | fall and it is our major market", which they did and it
               | still is; and so on.
               | 
               | If you read actual prospective papers from the time, the
               | warnings were true, give or take the massive spanner in
               | the works that was Covid. The EU did not roll over, and
               | the UK did not get access to the single market without
               | costs. The UK was sidelined and just spent 10 years cap
               | in hand trying to get free trade deals. Fishermen are not
               | better off, far from it. Environment regulations did get
               | to shit. The cost in terms of GDP was massive. Poverty
               | did rise (although it was bound to rise anyway with pre-
               | Brexit policies).
               | 
               | If the whole thing is not a massive self-inflicted shot
               | in the feet, I don't know what is.
        
               | Alupis wrote:
               | Is it not one of those "rip the band-aid off" things and
               | endure temporary pain for long term gain?
               | 
               | Sometimes continuing the status quo is attractive, but
               | wrong in the long term.
               | 
               | The EU moves appeared to be out of spite at the time.
               | Perhaps things will thaw over time?
               | 
               | The UK has a long history of being fiercely independent,
               | so I can at least understand the desire to separate from
               | the EU (which appears, to a foreigner, to be assembling
               | into a nation of states, similar to the US).
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > Is it not one of those "rip the band-aid off" things
               | and endure temporary pain for long term gain?
               | 
               | Not really, because Brexit cannot deliver what its
               | supporters are still saying it will. It won't have its
               | cake after having eaten it and there are no sunny uplands
               | of milk and honey. It was a scam, internal Tory politics
               | that went out of hand.
               | 
               | > The EU moves appeared to be out of spite at the time.
               | 
               | The thing is, the EU did not move. The vast majority of
               | what happened was utterly predictable. The UK was never
               | going to get access without contributing, it would never
               | have worked with the treaties and there would never have
               | been the necessary support amongst member-states to
               | change them. All of this was clear from day 1. As was the
               | fact that the EFTA members had no interest in welcoming
               | the UK. Never mind the fact that May had no plan
               | whatsoever and Boris was a lying bastard so trust was in
               | short supply anyway.
               | 
               | > Perhaps things will thaw over time?
               | 
               | Of course. The UK physically cannot get away from Europe.
               | And the EU has strong interests in having good relations
               | with the UK over the long term. Things will improve, and
               | however terrible it was during the negotiations, there
               | were other lows before in the History of Europe. It's
               | still cold comfort for the people living through it.
               | 
               | > The UK has a long history of being fiercely independent
               | 
               | That's how they like to see it. The UK has more of an
               | history of meddling and playing divide and conquer games
               | with the rest of Europe. It was never outside European
               | politics at any point in time since the Romans. It is not
               | more fiercely independent than France or Poland.
               | 
               | > which appears, to a foreigner, to be assembling into a
               | nation of states, similar to the US
               | 
               | The EU is nothing like the US. It is not a nation and
               | does not have a central government. The whole
               | construction depends on the member-states approving it
               | indefinitely. It is a club of countries, not a
               | federation.
        
               | Alupis wrote:
               | > The EU is nothing like the US. It is not a nation and
               | does not have a central government. The whole
               | construction depends on the member-states approving it
               | indefinitely. It is a club of countries, not a
               | federation.
               | 
               | I addressed most of your comment in my down-thread
               | comment - but I'd like to point out here that this is
               | almost exactly how the US was started via it's Articles
               | of Confederation[1].
               | 
               | Over time, the loosely formed "club" of states were
               | determined to be too weak, which in order to address
               | growing problems (simplifying a bit) led to the birth of
               | a much stronger centralized government. Over time, even a
               | war was fought to compel states to remain in the union
               | (another simplification but you get the gist).
               | 
               | Prior to the Constitution being ratified, each state was
               | it's own nation state, complete with it's own culture,
               | customs, way of life, etc - hence the name "The United
               | States".
               | 
               | [1]
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation
        
               | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
               | >Nobody said that the sky would be falling. Nobody sane,
               | anyway.
               | 
               | At a previous job I worked, there were lunchroom
               | conversations among the younger developers (in their
               | 20s), all of a leftist persuasion. They were convinced
               | that people in the UK would be dying because there was no
               | access to medicine (that came from the mainland), and
               | even in some cases hunger (though they didn't go so far
               | as to claim starvation).
               | 
               | For the rest of you it may be the case that the people
               | saying these same things were online, and therefor
               | suspect (as it should be), but for me these were real-
               | life conversations that I overheard. Perhaps this
               | phenomenon was atypical, and almost everywhere else it
               | was untrue, and of course you shouldn't take my word for
               | it either, but with proper skepticism keep in mind I'm
               | reporting something different here.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > At a previous job I worked, there were lunchroom
               | conversations among the younger developers (in their
               | 20s), all of a leftist persuasion. They were convinced
               | that people in the UK would be dying because there was no
               | access to medicine (that came from the mainland), and
               | even in some cases hunger (though they didn't go so far
               | as to claim starvation).
               | 
               | That's not really serious. I am not talking as serious
               | the noise from people like Gisela Stuart, either. Though
               | I still have a flyer that explains that 70 millions
               | Syrians will invade the UK because Turkey was a candidate
               | (!)
               | 
               | Listening to what politicians like Cameron (yuck) and
               | Tory, Lib Dems and Labour remainers actually said is a
               | different story. There still are recordings of debates
               | and speeches, it's not hidden. Most of them warned of
               | severe consequences and little gains, not the end of the
               | world.
               | 
               | If anything, remainers were not very good at playing the
               | emotional card.
               | 
               | > For the rest of you it may be the case that the people
               | saying these same things were online, and therefor
               | suspect (as it should be), but for me these were real-
               | life conversations that I overheard.
               | 
               | I was there, I remember very well. I split my time
               | between London and Newcastle at the time, talk about
               | worlds apart...
        
               | Alupis wrote:
               | What were/are the consequences, though?
               | 
               | Darn near every graph/poll I've seen completely ignores
               | COVID-19 happening, and points to economic turmoil (which
               | every nation on the planet suffered). AKA, the data is
               | political and not objective.
               | 
               | The rest of the world enjoys trade relations with EU
               | member nations, but aren't part of the EU themselves.
               | 
               | So, besides EU citizens (whatever they're actually
               | called) being able to freely come/go from the UK, what
               | else actually happened that was negative?
               | 
               | The immigration issues brought up by Brexit supporters,
               | in my opinion, cannot casually be tossed aside. The UK
               | isn't a huge nation, and having it's culture and national
               | identity changed so rapidly by outsiders is a net
               | negative for any society - something many nations are
               | currently grappling with today (including the US).
               | 
               | You mentioned the EFTA rejecting the UK in another
               | comment - my googling indicates EFTA is made up of 4
               | relatively small nations. Is this really a significant
               | problem? Won't those nations openly trade with the UK in
               | time, like they do with the rest of the world (hinting at
               | my "spite" comment from earlier).
               | 
               | Reviewing all of your comments in this thread, so far,
               | nothing seems to be an actual problem for the UK.
               | 
               | My opinion here is meaningless since I do not live in the
               | region - but I just want to point out your responses are
               | slightly colored by your political views - as you
               | indicate which politicians you believe are liars but
               | somehow others are fine, etc. Perhaps there's some
               | objective truth to what you are asserting, but I'm not
               | seeing it very clearly.
        
               | nonchalantsui wrote:
               | I mean if you don't pay attention to foreign affairs, of
               | course nothing seems consequential?
               | 
               | You can begin here:
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/19/how-has-
               | bri...
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | None of it. And you can't get a remainer to admit it,
               | ever. They'll just deny they ever said anything was going
               | to happen, and call leavers stupid liars again. According
               | to remainers, all of that screaming they were doing is
               | because they thought Brexit would slightly weaken the PS.
               | 
               | Purely a protest of the wealthy and the haters of export?
               | It didn't seem like it at the time. I thought they were
               | fighting a Nazi-ridden post-apocalyptic deathscape. The
               | numbers of dead from medication shortages was supposed to
               | be massive. Was that ever a sane or good-faith
               | prediction?
        
             | alfor wrote:
             | It would join the USA right away. That would be the end of
             | Canada.
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | I can understand Alberta being unhappy with Canada. But
               | the solution is to _join the US_? Have they _seen_ the US
               | lately?
        
         | jack_h wrote:
         | The polls that I've seen showed something like 30% wanted
         | independence before the election and now it's in the high 30%
         | to mid 40%[1]. The polls could of course be wrong, but if
         | they're any indication it seems as though it isn't that
         | unpopular of a position, but it is highly contentious.
         | 
         | I'm sure there's a lot of people behind the PR push for
         | independence and similarly there will be a lot of people behind
         | a counter PR push against independence. Assuming that another
         | position exists merely because of powerful interests usually
         | leads to a lot of strife as two sides of an issue can never
         | reconcile their differences; after all you can't debate against
         | a position that is perceived as being held by people due to
         | powerful interests tricking them into holding it. The reverse
         | will also naturally happen.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism#Opinion_pol...
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | I'm assuming the position exists because of the active and
           | obvious manpower involved.
           | 
           | Like I said, there's now people going door to door and flyers
           | being handed out. Important to note, it's not just about
           | separation, it's explicitly in connection to the "Republican
           | Party of Alberta", a newly rebranded political party that
           | has, to date, been entirely inconsequential (the preceding
           | Buffalo Party got 106 votes in the 2023 Provincial Election).
           | There's an obvious and concerted effort to coordinate the
           | sentiment through a single centralized source.
           | 
           | I'm not saying the sentiment didn't exist at all before them,
           | there's always been grumblings, but they are latching on to
           | it and intentionally turning it up to 11.
        
         | dismalaf wrote:
         | As a born Albertan, it's not unpopular. The current separatists
         | aren't popular politicians per se, but the idea we should push
         | for a new plan with the feds like Quebec and the idea of
         | separation itself is more popular than ever.
         | 
         | And yes, the people funding it have deep pockets. It's the oil
         | industry. You know what else though? The oil industry bankrolls
         | nearly everything in Alberta. Oil royalties are the reason we
         | don't have PST. It employs hundreds of thousands. That money
         | then supports construction, services, etc...
         | 
         | Anyone who was in Alberta when oil was booming knows exactly
         | what it does for the province.
         | 
         | Also, it's Canada's #1 export. It keeps the dollar at least
         | almost respectable. And billions get taken from Alberta to pay
         | for the welfare of Canadians in other provinces. Alberta's GDP
         | per capita is literally 35% higher than Canada's... And that's
         | _with_ them kneecapping us...
        
           | YZF wrote:
           | What's in this for the oil industry? Not sure that oil
           | companies actively working for separatism makes sense. What
           | would be the consequences if it becomes public that they're
           | doing this?
           | 
           | What sort of pull do the oil companies have over NY Times and
           | other media that's reverberating this?
           | 
           | Money pours in when oil prices are high. That's not exactly
           | under Alberta's control. What happens when there's an energy
           | bear market? What is the push towards alternative energy
           | going to do in the long run? Also Alberta is landlocked which
           | would make exporting oil more difficult if Alberta becomes a
           | country. One of PP's talking point (not wrong IMO) was that
           | not having invested in being able to export to non-US
           | customers was forcing Canada to sell oil for lower prices to
           | the US.
           | 
           | EDIT: another random thought is that a lot of labor in
           | Alberta came from out of the province. How is separating
           | going to impact that?
        
             | BJones12 wrote:
             | > What's in this for the oil industry?
             | 
             | The ability to sell more oil at a higher price, and to lose
             | less of the revenue as tax.
        
             | rfrey wrote:
             | Low royalties compared to other jurisdictions, with the
             | possibility of them going lower with an "independent"
             | government comprised of their surrogates.
             | 
             | Complete socialization of externalities: for example oil
             | companies are flagrantly ignoring their legal obligations
             | to clean up abandoned sites, and the current government is
             | moving to assume the liability for them. Having that and
             | similar cost offloading happen without the pesky federal
             | courts interfering is worth some investment.
        
           | SauciestGNU wrote:
           | It's just wild to sit in Alberta and push to become a
           | Russian-style oligarchic petrostate.
        
             | dismalaf wrote:
             | What makes you think we'd resemble Russia more than, say,
             | Norway?
        
               | SauciestGNU wrote:
               | The general right-wing friendliness of the movement. If
               | not fully Russian-style kleptocratic petrostate then at
               | least American style fascism. If the Alberta
               | conservatives were courting European relationships that
               | would be one thing, but it sure seems like the Alberta
               | and Canadian conservatives in general are fellow
               | travelers with the russo-hungaro-american-etc
               | authoritarian nationalists.
        
               | dismalaf wrote:
               | Literally one government ago we elected a leftist party.
               | Separation goes back way further than Danielle Smith.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | One government, but two elections and due to a split in
               | the right. And "leftist" is... generous.
        
               | dismalaf wrote:
               | There is nothing left of the NDP except the literal
               | communist parties that get like 0.001% of the vote... How
               | is that not leftist?
        
               | Sprocklem wrote:
               | The Alberta NDP under Notley was a centrist party and its
               | policies were far more aligned with the federal liberals
               | than the federal NDP. Obviously, there has been a change
               | in leadership, but I don't see any reason to believe that
               | the Alberta NDP will be any less centrist under Nenshi.
        
               | jagger27 wrote:
               | There was plenty of opportunity for a sovereign wealth
               | fund for decades within Alberta and for all of Canada.
               | You're saying now it's only on the table that the filthy
               | liberal coastal elites won't be on the unfair dole?
               | 
               | The unaccountable extra-national corporations who control
               | most of Alberta's oil production won't suddenly become
               | more generous and compliant to the needs of Albertans
               | upon separation. You don't have the balls or the leverage
               | to control them. The province will have less leverage in
               | the long run than before without the other two thirds of
               | Canada's economy to lever with in trade deals.
               | 
               | The main selling point it seems is to make the rest of
               | Canada suffer as hard as possible. Make no mistake, we
               | absolutely will suffer from the withdrawal of being cut
               | off that black tar we're addicted to from you. But you're
               | far more addicted to it than the rest of us are. What
               | comes after?
        
               | dismalaf wrote:
               | Alberta has a wealth fund... We've also paid $67 billion
               | to the rest of Canada in equalization payments...
        
               | jagger27 wrote:
               | Alberta _had_ a sovereign wealth fund. What happened to
               | it? Equalization payments don't explain of the collapse
               | of the once huge fund. It sure didn't buy much local
               | diversification!
               | 
               | You'd think Alberta would be more like Norway already
               | then. Instead you have lifted pickup trucks and tailings
               | ponds. Even more wealth won't solve the cultural
               | bankruptcy that's making the province upset enough to
               | consider separation to begin with.
               | 
               | To answer your original question, that's why I think
               | it'll be more like Russia.
        
               | dismalaf wrote:
               | > Alberta _had_ a sovereign wealth fund. What happened to
               | it?
               | 
               | It's literally still there. You just need to pay
               | attention: https://www.alberta.ca/heritage-savings-trust-
               | fund
               | 
               | It would be bigger without Canada limiting our export
               | ability and taking money from us for equalization though.
        
           | nonchalantsui wrote:
           | Alberta does not pay for the welfare of Canadians in other
           | provinces, it has never paid towards any equalization
           | systems. It has taken billions in debt though, including
           | during COVID when oil flatlined.
           | 
           | The reason Danielle et al were cozying up to US politicians
           | at private events, pushing narratives like embracing
           | America's new direction, isn't for independence or a new
           | federal plan - it's to become the 51st state.
        
             | dismalaf wrote:
             | https://www.canada.ca/en/department-
             | finance/programs/federal...
             | 
             | From the horse's mouth...
             | 
             | There's a nice chart at the bottom to show how much each
             | province pays, and which provinces receive equalization
             | payments (it's in red). Alberta pays 50% more per capita
             | than any Eastern province and doesn't receive equalization
             | (obviously).
        
         | Tiktaalik wrote:
         | The dominant media in the west, the Postmedia Network, is owned
         | by foreign and conservative interests so there's certainly
         | potential for outside influence.
         | 
         | If one took Trump at his word that he'd like to annex Canada
         | this is absolutely a strategy to take. Help along a flimsy and
         | non-viable break away movement, then justify the need to rescue
         | and liberate the repressed minority break away group as casus
         | belli to invade an annex the entire country. This was the Putin
         | playbook with Ukraine.
        
           | vdupras wrote:
           | And, also famously, Hitler's playbook with Czechia.
        
         | earlyriser wrote:
         | I think this is part of the Balkanization of the West (
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics ) and
         | I'm really surprised this is not stronger in Quebec, but I
         | guess it's more easy to orchestrate a propaganda campaign in
         | English.
        
           | libraryatnight wrote:
           | Genuine question from someone ignorant about that ignorance:
           | I'm aware of some desire for Quebec independence, I'd never
           | heard of similar for Alberta. Is it extra propaganda value to
           | stoke the independence movement somewhere it's less prevalent
           | in hopes it riles up the area where it already is more
           | pronounced? Assuming it is more pronounced - as I am not well
           | informed on Canadian politics.
        
             | jszymborski wrote:
             | DISCLAIMER: This is from the perspective of a Quebecker,
             | not an Albertan.
             | 
             | Alberta separatism is something that has been floated at
             | various points in the zeitgeist, but for many, many
             | reasons[0], I have mostly heard it spoken about unseriously
             | by all but few on the fringe.
             | 
             | The Quebec sovereignty movement came on the wings of the
             | Quiet Revolution[1] which had critical mass and large
             | support from the francophone population which made up the
             | vast majority of the province.
             | 
             | [0] It's unpopularity among alberans and impracticality as
             | a landlocked province, being chief among them.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiet_Revolution
        
           | vdupras wrote:
           | Quebec separatism isn't popular right now, but I also think
           | the the balkanization of the West is coming. The separatist
           | party in Quebec has pretty good support right now, not
           | because separatism is popular, but because of the lack of
           | options.
           | 
           | Next elections are in 2026 and I think that by then,
           | _something_ , I don't know what, but some event, some context
           | difficult to predict, will put back Quebec separatism on the
           | forefront. This time around, there will be many, many less
           | people coming to the front to defend Canada, which is already
           | pretty weak now.
           | 
           | So yeah, that's my wild prediction: Canada doesn't exist
           | anymore in 2027.
        
             | decimalenough wrote:
             | Isn't Trump's sole accomplishment making Canada more
             | united? External threats are great at bringing people
             | together, so while Quebec may have a rocky relationship
             | with the rest of Canada, but they still much prefer the
             | status quo over becoming the 51st state.
        
               | vdupras wrote:
               | Yes, I agree that we can observe that phenomenon, but
               | it's more a "public emotion" kind of movement. America's
               | loss of its world police status means balkanization of
               | many states and that's an undercurrent that is stronger
               | than this temporary emotion.
               | 
               | Fundamentally, Canada's provinces don't care about each
               | other. It's not a real country.
               | 
               | It's like when COVID broke out. The initial public
               | emotion was "everything is going to be alright!". It went
               | strong for a little while, but it broke off eventually.
        
               | qball wrote:
               | No; it's actually made the division worse.
               | 
               | Look at the election map: the elected party has near-zero
               | representation west of Ontario (even in the cities where
               | you'd expect it to be, with the exception of Vancouver
               | which is its own thing).
               | 
               | Westerners are unhappy with paying top tax dollar for
               | policies that are intended to destroy Western economic
               | productivity and culture (whether one likes what that is
               | or not is ultimately irrelevant).
               | 
               | Thus- from their perspective- if Easterners cannot be
               | reasoned with, then there's no reason that they should
               | accept Eastern rule as legitimate. Thus the recent moves
               | to, if not outright reject it entirely, renegotiate the
               | amount of political power that their outsized economic
               | productivity (especially per capita) is currently buying
               | them... because for the last 6 years (with every
               | indication that it'll actually be 10+ due to de facto
               | Toronto/Quebec coalition government), it's zero.
               | 
               | The Conservative Party makes more sense as a nascent Bloc
               | Ouest than anything else. And if Eastern voters continue
               | to reject all their reforms, well, there's nothing
               | illegitimate about ending an abusive marriage.
        
           | nonce42 wrote:
           | I agree. The sudden influence of the separatist movement does
           | match what that book ( _Foundations of Geopolitics_ ) says:
           | "Russia should use its special services within the borders of
           | the United States and Canada to fuel instability and
           | separatism" (quote from Wikipedia). I don't want to be a
           | conspiracy nut, but I have to wonder how many separatist and
           | protest movements are unknowingly getting external support to
           | produce geopolitical disorder.
        
             | sequoia wrote:
             | > have to wonder how many separatist and protest movements
             | are unknowingly getting external support to produce
             | geopolitical disorder.
             | 
             | Many movements "wittingly" receive external support. From
             | wikipedia[0]:
             | 
             | > In 2022, a report by the Network Contagion Research
             | Institute (NCRI) identified Qatar as the most significant
             | foreign donor to American universities. The research
             | revealed that from 2001 to 2021, US higher education
             | institutions received US$13 billion in funding from foreign
             | sources, with Qatar contributing donations totaling $4.7
             | billion to universities in the United States.
             | 
             | In addition to investing in US Universities, Qatar is also
             | host to the the Hamas political apparatus, which operates
             | out of Doha.
             | 
             | Foreign propagandists don't exclusively target right wing
             | radical movements, they are very happy to exploit leftists
             | as well!
             | 
             | 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatari_involvement_in_US_h
             | ighe...
        
         | stego-tech wrote:
         | Those who promote separatism often have the most to gain from
         | instability. A divided populace is far easier to exploit than a
         | unified one, and the same goes for a fractured government. The
         | UK, the US, Canada, and it wouldn't surprise me to see more of
         | these overtures from western countries in the decade ahead.
         | 
         | People whose sole skill is exploitation of others always seem
         | to believe they can run the world better than others; it's why
         | they bankroll these movements.
        
           | vdupras wrote:
           | How can we tell if a populace is unified or not? If Canada
           | and the US merged, would it be more "unified"? Would the
           | world population be more "unified" under a world government?
           | 
           | If not, what makes the existing governments more legitimate
           | than those fake "unification dreams"?
        
         | bjourne wrote:
         | That weird neighbour of yours who like to meddle in others
         | affairs? They've done it before...
        
         | dustbunny wrote:
         | Agreed. Immediately after the election this was talked about
         | heavily, but all the rural western Canadians I know are super
         | pro-Canada and not in favor of separatism. It feels like it's
         | even less popular now because of how nationalistic the boomer
         | generation became during this election cycle.
         | 
         | As someone with deep connection to the rural roots of this
         | place, this seperatism stuff feels fake.
        
       | Teever wrote:
       | I'm from Alberta and I'm quite concerned about this topic. This
       | recent HN comment[0] has been on my mind lately.
       | 
       | I've lived here my whole life and while I have some level of
       | sympathy for the sense of western alienation I feel that it's
       | more of an identity thing that's been fomented by bad actors over
       | the decades for their own personal political agendas and now that
       | it's embedded into people's sense of self from birth it has
       | become hyper-real and a great threat to me and the economic
       | stability of the place that I call home.
       | 
       | Nefarious people can really take advantage of these sentiments
       | and get the people who truly believe them to eagerly do some
       | fantastically bad things that are against their self interest.
       | 
       | I don't know what can be done about that. Like what's the "Ape
       | together Strong"[1] counter to this divisive bullshit?
       | 
       | Alberta has a highly educated population, and one that has robust
       | blue collar abilities, pretty good infrastructure, A shit load of
       | natural resources, enviable geographic advantages in terms of
       | security and isolation, and overall a very good quality of life.
       | 
       | What Alberta needs is to be honest with itself and recognize that
       | so many of our issues are caused by ourselves and our inability
       | to coordinate as a people against internal and external forces.
       | Separating won't change that, it'll only make it worse.
       | 
       | [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43487443
       | 
       | [1] https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/apes-together-strong
        
         | BJones12 wrote:
         | > I've lived here my whole life and while I have some level of
         | sympathy for the sense of western alienation I feel that it's
         | more of an identity thing that's been fomented by bad actors...
         | 
         | As someone who grew up in Ontario, there is a real "f*ck
         | Alberta" mentality in the central provinces.
        
           | AlexandrB wrote:
           | I grew up in Alberta and now live in Ontario and in my mind
           | it's less "fuck Alberta" and more "I don't give a fuck about
           | Alberta". Most Ontarians don't care about Alberta, its well
           | being, or what its citizens want. Perhaps this is inevitable
           | in a country as large as Canada.
           | 
           | A good parallel is America's "flyover country".
        
         | YZF wrote:
         | I'm from BC. Seeing Alberta and the US as some sort of parallel
         | to Russia and Ukraine feels like some new level of paranoia.
         | 
         | If you don't mind me asking, how old are you?
         | 
         | Alberta is not going to separate from Canada. The US is not
         | going to invade Canada. This is just noise. There's plenty of
         | things that matter that we need to focus on instead of this
         | nonsense.
         | 
         | I guess Brexit shows us that the public can vote for stupid
         | things.
         | 
         | > What Alberta needs is to be honest with itself and recognize
         | that so many of our issues are caused by ourselves and our
         | inability to coordinate as a people against internal and
         | external forces. Separating won't change that, it'll only make
         | it worse.
         | 
         | Can you expand on this? What sort of issues do Albertans cause
         | to themselves?
        
           | Teever wrote:
           | I'm a bit busy at the moment so my comment will be in point
           | form.
           | 
           | * Tying personal identity to a commodity which has a price
           | that experiences guaranteed and radical fluctuations.
           | 
           | * Being the only province that doesn't have a provincial
           | sales tax to provide some sort of stability to the provincial
           | budget.
           | 
           | * Perpetually voting conservative at a provincial and federal
           | level regardless of what that those policies those parties
           | propose and enact, or the corruption that they blatantly
           | practice.
           | 
           | * Embracing an 'us or them' mentality in all things, being
           | unwilling to compromise or work with people viewed as
           | outsiders. Any push back from outsiders leaders to Albertan
           | leaders feigning moral injury in a way that would make a
           | soccer player at the world cup blush.
           | 
           | * Letting oil companies act with impunity (orphaned wells,
           | policies to hobble wind and solar)
           | 
           | * Always reactive -- never proactive. "Please God, give me
           | one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away next
           | time."
           | 
           | * Bizarre centre of the universe thinking that ultimately
           | stems from an insecurity of realizing that it's not and never
           | will be and not being able to accept that it's okay.
           | 
           | * Head in the sand mentality w.r.t. climate change and
           | therefore no planning for long term water sources for
           | southern Alberta.
        
             | pcthrowaway wrote:
             | I find it interesting that one of only 7 NDP MPs elected in
             | the last election was in Alberta.
        
           | rfrey wrote:
           | How old are YOU? I think there's a certain age bracket who
           | thinks the US would never invade Canada, and if you were a
           | bit _older_ you might not be so certain.
        
       | fatbird wrote:
       | An important factor to consider is that provinces in Canada are
       | not like states in the U.S.: they are not sovereign bodies in
       | themselves, they are administrative divisions to which certain
       | federal powers are delegated. Alberta was created _within Canada_
       | by subdividing what was then the Northwest Territories, already
       | part of Canada.
       | 
       | Albertans certainly feel a distinct identity within their
       | province, but that doesn't map to a prior nation, state, or other
       | entity that could be considered coequal with Canada. It's more
       | like a child suing for emancipation from their parent. Their
       | entire identity was created within the Canadian context.
       | 
       | Who knows what effect that will have on separation if it comes to
       | pass, but you can't really analogize separation to secession by a
       | U.S. state.
        
         | palmotea wrote:
         | > Albertans certainly feel a distinct identity within their
         | province, but that doesn't map to a prior nation, state, or
         | other entity that could be considered coequal with Canada. It's
         | more like a child suing for emancipation from their parent.
         | Their entire identity was created within the Canadian context.
         | 
         | Your analysis is too legalistic. You could have said the same
         | thing about the US, pre-1776, and you'd have missed (or been
         | trying to gaslight away) the elephant in the room. Nations and
         | identities can form on their own, brand new, and don't require
         | an appeal to some prior legal entity.
         | 
         | > Alberta was created within Canada by subdividing what was
         | then the Northwest Territories, already part of Canada. ... Who
         | knows what effect that will have on separation if it comes to
         | pass, but you can't really analogize separation to secession by
         | a U.S. state.
         | 
         | I believe you could say the same of many of the Southern states
         | that suceeded during the civil war (e.g. Alabama and
         | Mississippi were created within the US by Congress, out of
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_Territory).
        
         | returningfory2 wrote:
         | > Alberta was created within Canada by subdividing what was
         | then the Northwest Territories, already part of Canada.
         | 
         | The same is true of the majority of the US states. The original
         | 13 colonies and Texas and Florida (and maybe a few more?) had
         | some preexisting status, but the rest were created out of
         | Federal territories.
        
           | kjkjadksj wrote:
           | I mean if you gloss over the concept of slave states then
           | sure.
        
       | jmclnx wrote:
       | I thought I read elsewhere the Indigenous people would succeed
       | from Alberta and stay wilt Canada if this ever happens. Plus the
       | same article said much of the "wealth" is on Indigenous Lands.
       | Leaving Alberta with little.
        
         | badc0ffee wrote:
         | > Plus the same article said much of the "wealth" is on
         | Indigenous Lands. Leaving Alberta with little.
         | 
         | I don't think that's true.
         | 
         | About 1% of Alberta's land is first nations reserves. The
         | productive agricultural land and oil sands land is definitely
         | outside of that 1%.
         | 
         | Edit: Maybe you're confusing this with crown land? But if
         | Alberta was independent, crown land would just be Alberta
         | government-administered land.
        
           | Tiktaalik wrote:
           | Alberta's lands are part of a treaties that First Nations
           | have with Canada. The literal reserve lands themselves are
           | less relevant than the vast traditional territories that
           | Alberta First Nations are sharing with Canada under some
           | treaty obligation.
           | 
           | I'm not terribly familiar with the minute details of the
           | numbered treaties that cover the area of Alberta, but I am
           | aware from recent reporting that the local First Nations do
           | not see Alberta as having any right to separate and take FN
           | lands with them.
        
             | a-priori wrote:
             | Alberta would need the consent of the councils for Treaty
             | 4, 6, 7 and 8 in order to take their land with them. The
             | treaties are between various First Nations and the Crown of
             | Canada and are not transferable to an independent Alberta
             | without consent.
             | 
             | Some provinces have non-treaty land, acquired through land
             | purchases or conquest. Quebec, for example, had the right
             | to take roughly the southern third of its territory when it
             | discussed separatism. But that's not the case with Alberta
             | -- it is entirely composed of treaty land.
             | 
             | This means that Canada cannot grant them independence, even
             | if it were to accept the results of a referendum that meets
             | Clarity Act requirements. That alone makes Alberta
             | separatism a non-starter. There's no legal route for
             | Alberta to separate from Canada without negotiating new
             | treaties with the treaty councils in order to get their
             | consent, and they've already signalled they are not willing
             | to do so.
        
               | belval wrote:
               | I genuinely wonder if and how that would hold though, you
               | need the buck to stop somewhere, if Alberta were to vote
               | to leave Canada you may call it illegal as you want to
               | they won't just say "this is treaty land" and cancel
               | their own referendum.
               | 
               | Say they separate politically and renege on the treaty,
               | the first nations will go to the ICC? Or ask Canada to
               | invade its own province? What support if any would the
               | later have with the Canadian elector, sending the army to
               | fight against other Canadians?
               | 
               | It's very similar to the old constitutional argument that
               | separatism needs a "clear majority" which sparked
               | questions that following a "yes" in Quebec the supreme
               | court would have to statute on whether 51% is a "clear
               | majority". Would Quebec actually have just accepted a
               | ruling against them from a institution that is not really
               | theirs?
        
               | a-priori wrote:
               | My point is that legally the First Nations have the right
               | to not consent to the separation of provinces from the
               | country. Of course, it's always possible for parties to
               | act illegally...
               | 
               | If Alberta did unilaterally declare independence (which
               | would be illegal according to Reference Re Secession of
               | Quebec [1998]), the First Nations have the right to call
               | upon Canada to defend their treaty rights under the
               | "peace and good order" terms of the treaties.
               | 
               | If Canada did grant Alberta independence without First
               | Nations consent, or Canada refuses to defend their treaty
               | rights, they would have a claim that Canada had violated
               | their rights to self-determination under the United
               | Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
               | (UNDRIP) which Canada ratified in 2021. But UNDRIP is a
               | non-binding resolution, so I don't think they'd have a
               | case with the ICC or ICJ (even assuming it had
               | jurisdiction).
        
       | llm_nerd wrote:
       | It is fascinating to me that there is never a discussion about US
       | states seceding. Well to put that another way, there _is_ a
       | discussion when it 's a red state like Texas that is mad that the
       | federal government wants clean air and good healthcare -- Texas
       | spent Biden's term setting up "consulates" and fanning separation
       | threats -- but why do we never hear serious talk about "blue"
       | states seceding, and the mere notion is consider traitorous and
       | "undivided under god" or something civil war incantions?
       | 
       | Comparing the trivial complaints Albertans have relative to the
       | federal government[1], just looking at what is happening in the
       | US right now, where the country is objectively and rapidly
       | becoming a _profoundly_ corrupt, banana-republic level idiocracy,
       | and I cannot fathom how the West Coast, New England, New York and
       | the like want to continue to be dictated to by people like MTG or
       | Mike Lee, or have to watch the news everyday to see what new
       | catastrophe the self-dealing felonious president has announced.
       | 
       | I mean, in actual polling, 9% of Canadians want to join the US
       | (the absolute high was 15% of Albertans). _20%_ of Americans want
       | their state to join Canada. Isn 't that Amazing?
       | 
       | So, start the process?
       | 
       | [1] - Most of Alberta's complaints are nonsensical. The NEP
       | program mentioned elsewhere, for instance, promised a coast to
       | coast pipeline system. Alberta _refused_ it, yet now strangely
       | one of their biggest grievances is that there isn 't a coast to
       | coast pipeline system. Keystone XL was't cancelled by Canada, it
       | was by the US which has always been extremely antagonistic to the
       | province, and is rapidly replacing it with North Dakota (a state
       | that produces about 4x the per capita oil value, but whose
       | residents see very little value from the same). The federal
       | government recently dropped $35B for a pipeline because
       | _commercially_ most big oil companies refuse to spend money on
       | Albertan projects, but just want to rile up the low-info rubes
       | into thinking somehow it 's actually the federal government's
       | fault. See Petronas cancelling an LNG project because spending
       | billions on a terminal in a world flooded with low price LNG
       | isn't worthwhile...still somehow a grievance about the federal
       | government.
        
         | Henchman21 wrote:
         | > but why do we never hear serious talk about "blue" states
         | seceding, and the mere notion is consider traitorous and
         | "undivided under god" or something civil war incantions?
         | 
         | Because conservatives own the media and push their agenda. Its
         | of no use to them to portray things accurately. For instance,
         | gun violence in red states is significantly worse than in blue,
         | but the media pushes their narrative that simply _going to
         | Chicago_ is taking your life in your own hands.. you're gonna
         | get shot _for sure_ , better to stay away! Which,
         | coincidentally, means that those folks never investigate the
         | truth of the matter and often they push the narrative!
        
         | pvg wrote:
         | There is endless talk about US states seceding but this
         | question was settled by what is still the country's deadliest
         | war. There's no meaningful 'process' by which a US state can
         | secede so the talk is limited to talk.
        
           | marcusverus wrote:
           | Will the United States exist for the remainder of human
           | history simply because "there is no handy 'process'" by which
           | states can secede? The idea is silly. If people actually
           | cared about such things, the US would never have come into
           | existence. After all, as of 1776, the question of rebellion
           | was clearly settled by the Treason Act of 1351. There was no
           | meaningful 'process' by which the colonies could secede. And
           | yet the American revolution happened. It happened in the same
           | way that history always happens. Not in strict adherence to
           | some scrap of paper, or in accordance to a process flow
           | chart, but off the cuff. After all, what proportion of
           | successful secession movements in human history have followed
           | a strictly legal process? I can only think of a few, all
           | small nations, all in the last 100 years or so. Bismarck was
           | right (as usual) when he said:
           | 
           | > Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great
           | questions of the day be decided... but by iron and blood.
           | 
           | When people are determined to secede, they won't be stopped
           | by words. They'll be stopped by "iron and blood", or they'll
           | be on their way. I've heard many Americans express their fear
           | of another civil war, but I have never heard a single one
           | express their support for _starting one_ and sacrificing
           | hundreds of thousands of lives for the sake of preserving a
           | polity.
        
             | pvg wrote:
             | _Will the United States exist for the remainder of human
             | history simply because "there is no handy 'process'" by
             | which states can secede? The idea is silly._
             | 
             | I'm not sure why you're telling me your silly idea, I
             | didn't say that.
             | 
             | Canada has had a reasonably recent, nearly successful
             | political secessionist movement and two effectively failed
             | efforts at constitutional reform to address it. Secession
             | is not a settled issue in Canada the way it is in the US
             | which is why it has a different valence in that context.
        
         | AlexandrB wrote:
         | The NEP also applied price controls on domestic sales of oil,
         | effectively forcing Alberta to sell oil to other provinces at
         | below market rates:
         | 
         | > The NEP's Petroleum Gas Revenue Tax (PGRT) instituted a
         | double-taxation mechanism that did not apply to other
         | commodities, such as gold and copper (see "Program details"
         | item (c), below), "to redistribute revenue from the [oil]
         | industry and lessen the cost of oil for Eastern Canada" in an
         | attempt to insulate the Canadian economy from the shock of
         | rising global oil prices[20] (see "Program details" item (a),
         | below). In 1981, Scarfe argued that by keeping domestic oil
         | prices below world market prices, the NEP was essentially
         | mandating provincial generosity and subsidizing all Canadian
         | consumers of fuel, because of Alberta and the other oil-
         | producing provinces (such as Newfoundland, which received
         | funding by the NEP for the Hibernia project).[14]: 8
         | 
         | and
         | 
         | > Estimates have placed Alberta's losses between $50 billion
         | and $100 billion because of the NEP.[32][33]
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program
        
         | SoftTalker wrote:
         | > just looking at what is happening in the US right now, where
         | the country is objectively become a profoundly corrupt, banana-
         | republic level idiocracy,
         | 
         | Half the population, or perhaps slightly more, doesn't agree
         | with that.
        
           | llm_nerd wrote:
           | By what measure do you come up with that?
           | 
           | Nationwide, Trump's approval rating is somewhere around
           | 42-46%. And just to be clear, early in a term presidential
           | approval rating is in a honeymoon period where the public is
           | trying to make the best of the next four years and sees it
           | with rose coloured glasses. Obama had a 65% approval rating.
           | Biden had a 57% approval rating. Both at the same stage in
           | their presidency.
           | 
           | On _every single_ issue, the public disagrees with how Trump
           | has acted. From immigration to trade and tariffs to education
           | to health. And he 's currently in the "lie about everything
           | and promise the world" stage, but much like his first term
           | that has an expiry date when people realize that he is
           | incredibly stupid and lies with every breath. There will be
           | no trillion dollar windfall from tariffs "paid for by the
           | other country" (though there is the most regressive, largest
           | tax hike in US history), everything is going to get more
           | expensive, and the "Golden age" is going to be a dire descent
           | to a fallen empire. There will be no $5000 DOGE savings
           | cheques or elimination of taxes on tips or overtime, egg
           | prices haven't dropped 95%, gas isn't $1.99, and the Ukraine
           | war keeps going on. He isn't going to eliminate the debt or
           | even the massively exploding deficit with his magical crypto
           | scam shitcoin.
           | 
           | But Trump will self-enrich himself and everyone who pays his
           | extortion racket. His trade war grift seems mostly targeted
           | at getting various Trump co projects going, along with
           | fellating his pal Elon's various companies.
           | 
           | But regardless, I'm not talking about the US as a whole. No
           | one in Canada wants Kentucky or Texas or Florida joining us,
           | and those people can herald their orange idol however much
           | they want. But on the West Coast Trump has a 30% approval
           | rating. In much of New England and New York he's mid-30s.
           | Again, despite this being the honeymoon period.
           | 
           | Yeah, the areas I talked about hugely disagree with this
           | government.
           | 
           | So do something about it. Again, _red_ people and states talk
           | about this _all the time_.
           | 
           | https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-
           | news/marjorie...
           | 
           | https://www.newsweek.com/texas-secession-closer-anyone-
           | think...
           | 
           | If the so-called Blue states don't want to be dragged back a
           | hundred years into this growing anti-science, corrupt
           | idiocracy, start taking the same tact. Somehow it's only
           | incomprehensible when the better states broach it.
        
           | krapp wrote:
           | >Half the population, or perhaps slightly more, doesn't agree
           | with that.
           | 
           | If you're implying that half the population or perhaps
           | slightly more voted for Donald Trump, perhaps as
           | extrapolation from Trump having "won the popular vote," you
           | would be incorrect. Only about 63% of the eligible voting
           | populace voted in 2024, and of those, _marginally_ more voted
           | for Trump than Harris (49.9% vs 48.4%). So a more realistic
           | estimate of the total pro-Trump populace would be closer to
           | 30%. While the narrative that Trump voters command half, or
           | over half, of the entire US population is common it has never
           | actually been true.
           | 
           | And this doesn't even take into account the number of Trump
           | voters who are currently dissatisfied with the regime's
           | behavior - the ones who despite all evidence to the contrary
           | saw absolutely nothing wrong with Trump, trusted his motives
           | and integrity, and just thought he would bring the price of
           | eggs down.
           | 
           | Also, who cares? They're wrong. Donald Trump is objectively
           | the most corrupt and least competent President in living
           | memory.
        
             | SoftTalker wrote:
             | The people who vote are the only ones that matter, in this
             | context.
        
               | krapp wrote:
               | The people who voted for Trump are a subset of the people
               | who voted, and that set does not contain "half the
               | population" in any meaningful context.
        
       | BJones12 wrote:
       | This Astral Codex Ten (Slate Star Codex) article is what led me
       | to think Alberta would be better off if it separated from Canada:
       | 
       | https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-cities-and...
        
         | dang wrote:
         | That's a whole new view of Jane Jacobs! You should post this as
         | a submission to HN sometime (maybe in a few weeks, after which
         | it won't seem like a follow-up to this thread). If you want to
         | do that, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll arrange to put it
         | in the second-chance pool
         | (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26998308), which
         | guarantees at least a bit of frontpage time.
         | 
         | (Edit: I suppose I should hasten to add that my response here
         | isn't about Alberta/Canada. Just about JJ.)
        
       | bhewes wrote:
       | Having lived in Alberta and Quebec as an American this is funny
       | as hell, but that is Canada got to do something with too much
       | time inside.
        
       | FpUser wrote:
       | If Alberta wants to separate to be on their own it is a lunacy.
       | They will gain nothing in the end.
       | 
       | I suspect that in reality there is a plan to just simply sell it
       | to the US - separate first and then join the US later. I bet some
       | politicians on either side of a border are actively involved.
       | They should be fucking quartered.
       | 
       | In the US states can not secede. I wish it was the same in
       | Canada. Except couple of borderline cases splitting a country is
       | never good idea.
        
         | qingcharles wrote:
         | I believe US states can secede legally, but does it not require
         | the same sort of burden as federal constitutional amendments?
         | e.g. a large proportion of the other states have to agree?
        
           | antognini wrote:
           | There is no recognized mechanism for states in the US to
           | secede. Probably the consensus view among constitutional
           | scholars is that accession to the United States is permanent
           | --- that is, there is no way for a state to secede once it
           | joins the union. There is a minority view that a state could
           | secede with the consent of the Federal government or other
           | states, but what would constitute agreement is not spelled
           | out. If there were a serious attempt at secession it would
           | probably require a constitutional amendment, so in practice
           | it would require the consent of 3/4 of the states.
        
             | rgblambda wrote:
             | While there's no precedent of a state seceding, looking at
             | Filipino independence as the closest example, it only
             | required the President's signing of a treaty and the
             | Senate's ratification of said treaty to cede U.S. sovereign
             | territory.
        
       | Tiktaalik wrote:
       | Alberta on as its own independent state would be net _worse off_
       | in that they 'd be a landlocked state and this would not at all
       | directly advance their goals of getting more of their oil product
       | to tidewater, one of their main political grievances. British
       | Columbia would still oppose further oil pipelines to its coast
       | for the same reasons it has always opposed them and in fact it
       | would become politically easier for Canada to deny such access.
       | 
       | So the only viable outcome really is American annexation.
       | (Additionally not advancing the Albertan grievance of only
       | selling oil to one customer...)
        
         | nickff wrote:
         | Quebec also would have been worse off as an independent state,
         | but threatening sovereignty gave (and continues to give) them
         | important bargaining leverage. Additionally, Alberta has long-
         | standing grievances, and ignoring those in favor of a strictly
         | economic analysis is quite... limiting. Albertan sovereignty
         | advocates might also argue that Canada has more to lose in
         | Alberta than it ever did in the case of Quebec.
        
           | jszymborski wrote:
           | There are different degrees of "worse off", however. Quebec
           | is a major port city, while Alberta is sandwiched between BC,
           | Saskatchewan, Montana, and the North West Territories.
        
             | abdullahkhalids wrote:
             | They have US border on the South. If they were independent,
             | they can strike a deal with the US for their oil pipeline,
             | without Ottawa blocking them.
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | Ottawa has supported the keystone XL pipeline south. I
               | don't see what changes there. The democrats in the U.S.
               | are the blocker for god knows what actual reason.
        
               | TimorousBestie wrote:
               | Oil companies have proven time and time again when their
               | pipelines leak or their ships sink or their fracking
               | liquid gets into the groundwater, they're not liable for
               | it. Payouts have historically been a tiny, minuscule
               | fraction of damage done. And that's when there was an EPA
               | attempting to regulate them; that's not going to happen
               | moving forward.
               | 
               | So why should I trust one to build in my backyard?
        
               | dylan604 wrote:
               | Before being neutered, was the EPA so powerful that it
               | could regulate what happened in the great white north?
               | While I get your sentiments about bigOil getting way with
               | poisoning the land/seas, we can at least keep the
               | government agencies from one country straight.
        
               | unsnap_biceps wrote:
               | The topic was "The democrats in the U.S. are the blocker
               | for god knows what actual reason", so it makes sense that
               | they were talking about a US agency to me
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | That's not the reason. The oil goes by train which is
               | more polluting and has the same consequences when trains
               | derail.
        
               | DFHippie wrote:
               | > The democrats in the U.S. are the blocker for god knows
               | what actual reason.
               | 
               | It's not just God. I also know!
               | 
               | The Democrats believe climate change is real, the
               | externalities of fossil fuel extraction, processing, and
               | consumption are real, the injured parties in pipeline
               | construction are their constituents, and the fossil fuel
               | companies fund Republicans and Republican-aligned
               | organizations.
               | 
               | It's a really deep mystery, but I've sussed it out. Me
               | and God.
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | The oil doesn't stay in the ground, it gets shipped via
               | diesel trains without the pipeline.
               | 
               | I'm guessing climate change is the reason, but it's hard
               | to see how the current state of affairs is better for the
               | environment. Diesel trains are a lot less carbon friendly
               | than pipelines.
        
               | DFHippie wrote:
               | Here's a thought experiment: if the diesel train works as
               | well as the pipeline, why build the pipeline?
        
               | robertlagrant wrote:
               | Here's another: if a diesel train produces no pollution,
               | why not use it everywhere?
        
               | slashdev wrote:
               | It doesn't work as well, it costs more. But it's still
               | better to use the train than to slow production
        
           | Tiktaalik wrote:
           | Quebec would be worse off independent of Canada absolutely,
           | but having access to the ocean not landlocked and remarkably
           | more viable as an independent state.
           | 
           | There are other landlocked countries throughout the world so
           | it's not like it's impossible, but Alberta would be creating
           | an uphill to climb.
           | 
           | Bottom line is that none of Alberta's longstanding limited
           | market oil pipeline grievances are solved by becoming a
           | landlocked independent state.
        
           | kjkjadksj wrote:
           | Except of course the elephant in the room for why that is.
           | You know, an entire population at odds with the Canadian
           | government for trying to do to quebec and their culture what
           | the American government successfully did to native americans
           | and their culture. You don't really have that unified us vs
           | them mentality in english speaking canada.
        
             | mistrial9 wrote:
             | I dont know anything about quebec but honestly this
             | statement is so one-sided that it translates to "noise" and
             | "rage bait" level
        
         | jszymborski wrote:
         | If Canadians are worried about Trumps threats of absorption,
         | then I as a citizen of an independent Alberta would be
         | petrified.
        
           | guywithahat wrote:
           | I don't think anyone who's paying attention is worried about
           | some thread of absorption. Trump was making fun of Trudeau
           | when he was saying Canada wouldn't survive without the US's
           | help.
        
           | canadiantim wrote:
           | Actually Trump wanting to absorb Canada puts Alberta in a
           | great position.
           | 
           | Canadians like to argue that no province can secede from
           | Canada because it would be illegal but the reality is that if
           | a referendum showed 50%+ of people in Alberta supported
           | independence then the US would support Alberta and that's the
           | only thing that matters. A lot of Canadian press is wilfully
           | ignorant of that fact.
        
         | landl0rd wrote:
         | Given that existing pipelines are already overcommitted or at
         | capacity and carry not much more than a tenth, and given that
         | America is mostly the only option for refining the heavy sour
         | tarry crap they pull out of the athabasca sands, this doesn't
         | matter much. This is what came up during trump's threats about
         | tariffing oil. They basically would have had to eat the cost
         | unlike most of the other tariffs trump has proposed.
         | 
         | Regardless, let's say two places have very different values and
         | ideas about how they want to live and what goals to pursue.
         | What the hell gives one place the right, particularly when it
         | consistently votes down the desired values of the other, to
         | prevent it from leaving and going its own way? Self-
         | determination as a principle isn't magically restricted to
         | national borders only. That would be a ridiculous assertion.
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | > What the hell gives one place the right, particularly when
           | it consistently votes down the desired values of the other,
           | to prevent it from leaving and going its own way? Self-
           | determination as a principle isn't magically restricted to
           | national borders only. That would be a ridiculous assertion.
           | 
           | How granular does this asserted right go? Should Edmonton be
           | able to secede from Alberta? Can I run outside and put up a
           | flag on my front lawn?
        
             | landl0rd wrote:
             | It goes pretty granular. I don't really like secession in
             | concept, in this case it's a manifestation that governments
             | like to steal more power than they absolutely must hold at
             | that level instead of leaving it at lower ones. This gives
             | someone in BC a hell of a lot too much influence on how
             | someone in Alberta lives and vice-versa when really not
             | much besides border, military, and treaties/diplomacy needs
             | to be handled nationally. Things should be made as local as
             | possible. I would prefer municipal or neighborhood-level
             | decision making for a lot of things because it's actually
             | really hard to scale democracy well and because the losing
             | minority grows as you make decisions at higher levels.
             | 
             | There are practical limits to this principle, very hard for
             | a landlocked city to secede, but at least in principle it
             | seems morally correct if not practically possible. But I
             | struggle to see how someone can conceivably oppose
             | colonialism and also oppose secession.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | Is it actually morally correct? Philosophically, this
               | ends up with the ideal government being every single
               | person determining their own rules, doesn't it? The ideal
               | state of things would be to reject democracy and move to
               | libertarianism? I'd argue that such a society does not
               | function, and having a functional society is also a moral
               | good.
               | 
               | On a more practical note, the Alberta government is
               | currently actively meddling in municipal politics and
               | policies, so in the currently discussed application it
               | seems more of a "I want to have a government that's as
               | large as possible that I can still have power over".
        
           | Tiktaalik wrote:
           | On the second point it should be noted that the awful FPTP
           | system creates the regional distortions that make it appear
           | that the regions are more divided than they really are. One
           | looks on the map and it seems like Alberta is near uniform
           | blue but that's because of FPTP. The reality is that ~64%
           | voted one way and a sizeable amount of Alberta voted in
           | opposition.
           | 
           | If we fixed our voting system to be more truly representative
           | I think some of these divisions would go away.
        
         | Gothmog69 wrote:
         | [flagged]
        
           | rfrey wrote:
           | This is as true as Trump's claim that the US subsidizes
           | Canada $200 billion/year. It's a made-up outrage point.
        
           | dang wrote:
           | > got nothing in return except spat in the face
           | 
           | Please don't do regional flamewar on HN. Like national
           | flamewar and religious flamewar, it's a circle of hell we
           | want to avoid here. You can make your substantive points
           | without it, so please do that instead.
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
         | vkou wrote:
         | > this would not at all directly advance their goals of getting
         | more of their oil product to tidewater, one of their main
         | political grievances
         | 
         | It's a manufactured grievance. Alberta's been pumping and
         | selling more oil than at any point in its history under
         | Trudeau's liberals.
         | 
         | https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/dashboard/oil-productio...
         | 
         | Trace this separatism bullshit back, and you'll find the
         | fingers of the American right fully entwined in all this.
         | 
         | What all the separatists fail to be aware of is that 98% of
         | Alberta is treaty land. It can't secede as a land-locked
         | province, it could only secede as a bunch of fragmented
         | municipalities surrounded by First Nations.
         | 
         | The only _actual_ way towards it would be invasion and
         | annexation by the United States. I hope that anyone looking
         | forward to that timeline is also looking forward to IEDs.
        
         | hodder wrote:
         | Total nonsense. Political separation doesn't undue physical oil
         | infrastructure. Crude would continue to flow as is, and trade
         | deals would immediately be struck. Meanwhile, incremental
         | pipeline capacity south would be rapidly approved while
         | existing East/West expansion is hopeless under a Liberal
         | government.
         | 
         | I am a physical oil trader and I buy 200,000 barrels of oil a
         | day to supply refineries in Canada. I have also worked on
         | financing for Energy East, Keystone XL, Northern Gateway, TMX
         | and the Line 9 reversal in my career. Trust me when I say the
         | Canadian government is the problem and Alberta would be MUCH
         | better off from an oil perspective split off of Canada.
        
           | apercu wrote:
           | No personal financial bias at all?
        
       | neom wrote:
       | 30 October 1995 was the day Canada almost tore itself in half[1].
       | Within hours of the vote capital started to exits, the banks shut
       | down domestic FX trading to stop the bleeding, the loonie
       | slumped, and Quebec-listed stocks went to shit.[2] ofc, ottawa
       | responds by slashing transfers and public spending in the 1995-97
       | budgets. [3]They literally said, very loudly to province "do more
       | with less." Health care, social services, and infrastructure
       | entered a period of massive of under investment, while provinces
       | raised tuition, tolls, and property taxes to plug the gap. That
       | all started the Clarity Act fight[4].
       | 
       | As a Canadian, I left Canada because my countrymen insist on
       | shooting us in the foot, mostly in my opinion, because Canadians
       | don't have enough to worry about on average. It seems we are hell
       | bend on continuing the trend. It seems Canadians will do anything
       | to avoid building a cohesive country... 30 October 1995 flipped
       | Canada from build mode to the fetal position, and we're still in
       | it.
       | 
       | [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Quebec_referendum
       | 
       | [2]https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=841344
       | 
       | [3]https://thewalrus.ca/betting-on-separation/
       | 
       | [4]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarity_Act
        
       | perihelions wrote:
       | Not surprising given the _Times_ ' background, that the CIA isn't
       | mentioned at all as a suspect. Despite that quietly funding and
       | boosting separatist groups is their quintessential modus
       | operandi; that they've done this hundreds of times all over the
       | world; and US intelligence is the most well-funded in the world;
       | and US leadership has now _without ambiguity_ signaled US '
       | intention to end Canada as a sovereign nation.
       | 
       | They acknowledge the _politician_ , sure; but they disregard the
       | enormous state apparatus that politician wields, what it does and
       | is capable of. The New York Times is pretty consistent about
       | ignoring it.
       | 
       | Note US administration-aligned media has lately been spotlighting
       | US annexation of Alberta[0], despite only 18% support in actual
       | Alberta[1].
       | 
       | Note also the related intelligence admissions about Greenland[2].
       | 
       | [0] https://www.foxnews.com/video/6369677470112 ( _" Canadian
       | lawyer leading delegation to DC to make Alberta a state"_)
       | 
       | [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-join-u-s-
       | poll-1.743431... ( _"...the most support for that proposal in
       | Alberta with 18 per cent of respondents agreeing Canada should
       | join the U.S. "_)
       | 
       | [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43910874 ( _" U.S.
       | Orders Intelligence Agencies to Step Up Spying on Greenland
       | (wsj.com)"_)
        
         | some_random wrote:
         | Credible news organizations require some amount of evidence
         | before publishing.
        
         | blast wrote:
         | "US leadership has without ambiguity signaled US' intention"
         | 
         | That's a pretty funny way to describe the Trolling Bloviator.
        
       | cafard wrote:
       | Canadians will correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that at
       | least Alberta made noises about secession 40 or 50 years ago.
        
         | bluefirebrand wrote:
         | More recently than that. Alberta independence is a can that
         | gets kicked around quite a bit
        
       | Projectiboga wrote:
       | There is also a major First Peoples presence in Alberta. This
       | will complicate any attempts to seccede and complicate any union
       | with the USA. https://www.alberta.ca/map-of-first-nations-
       | reserves-and-met...
        
       | nayuki wrote:
       | More and more, I can see how the "Jesusland" map is a stereotype
       | that fits reality: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesusland_map ,
       | https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/Jesuslan...
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Let's please not do regional flamewar here.
         | 
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
       | dustbunny wrote:
       | As a Western Canadian, I actually think it's the media attention
       | on this that has made it more popular. The vast majority of
       | people in my life think this is a terrible idea. Western Canada,
       | and Alberta, have been shafted by federal Canadian politics for a
       | long time, but Carney seems to be saying the right things
       | ("energy super power", "energy corridor", "streamline
       | infrastructure").
        
         | diego_moita wrote:
         | As an Albertan I agree. Separatist parties never got more than
         | 5% of the vote here.
         | 
         | What is happening is:
         | 
         | 1) Conservatives believed they had a sure path to a super-
         | majority in Ottawa.
         | 
         | 2) Trump spoils everything.
         | 
         | 3) But Trump is their hero, they'd never blame him. So they
         | blame the usual suspects: Trudeau and the Libs.
         | 
         | 4) Because they can't do anything about the Libs victory, they
         | do what spoiled children do when they hear "no": throw a
         | tantrum.
         | 
         | 5) Because the media needs circus and drama to catch eyeballs,
         | the media goes to overdrama on their tantrum.
         | 
         | 6) Because children on tantrum love attention, they double down
         | on crying and yelling. Go to 4.
        
         | tavavex wrote:
         | I agree as a Canadian. It feels like there's vastly more
         | reporting on this than there are actual people fully supporting
         | this movement. These things may be getting more coverage
         | because they sound so outrageous and novel, but it's an
         | unpopular idea even among Albertans. It also lacks anything
         | that Quebec's once-mighty secessionist force had - no unified
         | organization pushing for it, no vision for what an independent
         | Alberta would be like, no cultural differences with the rest of
         | Canada, no irreconcilable grievance with the federal government
         | (outside of them not being conservative enough).
         | 
         | Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of tension in Alberta - but
         | as it stands, this movement is more of a way to voice
         | discontent, rather than a serious plan to become a sovereign
         | state. IMO, it's not worth a dramatic full-page treatment that
         | paints this as a likely possibility - but foreign reporting on
         | Canadian issues has often been very questionable.
        
       | cryptoegorophy wrote:
       | Call me a conspiracy theorist but most of these
       | post/articles/info is a Russian propaganda. It fits a textbook
       | narrative of divide and conquer. I've seen same patterns in other
       | parts of the world and similar thing seems to be in seed stage
       | here as well as USA. It is a slow grind towards a long term goal.
        
         | throwaway48476 wrote:
         | Most people who see Russian propaganda everywhere never stop
         | and look back to see the connection between their ideology and
         | Russian propaganda.
        
       | dblohm7 wrote:
       | Albertan here: a supermajority of Albertans are opposed to
       | separation, but it continues to be amplified by the press.
       | 
       | Danielle Smith, our provincial premier (equivalent to a state
       | governor) is trying to pull a David Cameron to appease the
       | separatist wing of her party.
        
         | JackYoustra wrote:
         | you'd figure that the mere invocation of the name would
         | dissuade such a person from the idea!
        
       | petermcneeley wrote:
       | What % of the participants of the trucker protest were from
       | Alberta?
        
       | thr0waway001 wrote:
       | Next huge wildfire after Alberta secedes will be very very
       | interesting.
       | 
       | Heck just last year, the most prominent city in Alberta, Calgary,
       | needed help just dealing with breaking a huge water main
       | breaking.
       | 
       | With drought becoming more of a real threat every year Alberta
       | will be in a shitty place being landlocked.
       | 
       | We are gonna need the rest of Canada's help. Unfortunately, we
       | can't drink the oil.
        
       | krooj wrote:
       | This is one of those cases where I would hope that extremely
       | strong federalism is exercised from Ottawa: essentially, Alberta
       | could be dissolved, stripped of its provincial status and
       | relegated to a territory. From that point, allow for further
       | subdivision to the various First Nations people, allowing
       | reformation into other territories or offer provincial status.
       | The rest of it could be federally administered - see how they
       | like that.
       | 
       | As much as it pains me to say it, Canada's diversity is also it's
       | weakness, and there needs to be precedent - perhaps not as severe
       | as in the US - that you do NOT leave the dominion.
        
         | squigz wrote:
         | Putting aside that this isn't that popular a position in
         | reality, why do you think such actions from the federal
         | government would go over well with not only Albertans, but the
         | rest of us in the rest of the country?
        
       | insane_dreamer wrote:
       | > Critics say that these [federal regulations] limited Alberta's
       | ability to fully extract and export its mineral and fossil fuel
       | wealth.
       | 
       | Of course they do! one of the key pillars of trying to mitigate
       | global warming is reducing dependency on fossil fuels, which
       | means not "fully extracting" it.
       | 
       | What's the alternative -- extract as much as possible now so we
       | can line our pockets, and let the next few generations deal with
       | it?
        
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