[HN Gopher] Data manipulations alleged in study that paved way f...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Data manipulations alleged in study that paved way for Microsoft's
       quantum chip
        
       Author : EvgeniyZh
       Score  : 186 points
       Date   : 2025-05-09 11:23 UTC (11 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.science.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.science.org)
        
       | krastanov wrote:
       | This is such a beautiful theoretical idea (a type of "natural"
       | error correction which protects the qubits without having to deal
       | with the exorbitant overhead of error correcting codes). It is
       | very disheartening and discouraging and just plain exhausting
       | that there has been so much "data manipulation" in this subfield
       | (see all the other retracted papers from the last 5 years
       | mentioned in the article). I can only imagine how hard this must
       | be on the junior scientists on the team who have been swept into
       | it without much control.
        
         | pc86 wrote:
         | Hopefully people are keeping lists of the PIs on these redacted
         | papers and keeping that in mind for future grants, hiring, etc.
         | I know almost nobody is, but one can hope.
         | 
         | Academic fraud ranging from plagiarism to outright faking data
         | should, more often than not, make it basically impossible for
         | you to get _any_ academic job whatsoever, in your field or
         | others.
         | 
         | This chip is an extreme example, but potentially millions of
         | dollars of productivity, hundreds or even thousands of people
         | spending months or years on something based in a fabrication.
         | 
         | The person or people directly responsible for this should never
         | work again.
        
           | jakobgm wrote:
           | Totally agree! As with any behavior which is difficult to
           | detect and often goes by unnoticed; the punishment should be
           | large enough for the expected value of fraud being clearly
           | net negative for those that might feel tempted at "tweaking
           | some numbers".
           | 
           | In case anybody else also isn't familiar with "PI" as an
           | abbreviation in this context:
           | 
           | > In many countries, the term principal investigator (PI)
           | refers to the holder of an independent grant and the lead
           | researcher for the grant project, usually in the sciences,
           | such as a laboratory study or a clinical trial.
           | 
           | Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal_investigator
        
           | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
           | >Academic fraud ranging from plagiarism to outright faking
           | data should, more often than not, make it basically
           | impossible for you to get any academic job whatsoever, in
           | your field or others.
           | 
           | That might actually be a perverse incentive. If you've
           | already nuked your career with some fraud, you can't make it
           | worse by extra fraud... why ever stop? People inclined to do
           | this sort of thing, when faced with that deterrent just
           | double down and commit even more fraud, they figure the best
           | that can be hoped for is to do it so much and so perfectly
           | that they're never discovered.
           | 
           | The trouble is that the system for science worked well when
           | there exists only some tiny number of scientists, but now
           | we're a planet of 8 billion and where people tell their
           | children they have to go to college and get a STEM degree.
           | Hell, you can only become a scientist by producing new
           | research, even if there's not much left to research in your
           | field. And the only way to maintain that position as a
           | scientist is "to publish or perish". We have finite avenues
           | of research with an ever-growing population of scientists,
           | bullshit is inevitable.
        
             | dullcrisp wrote:
             | You stop because you can't get a job?
        
             | pc86 wrote:
             | Even if "bullshit is inevitable" is true -- I don't think
             | it is -- that doesn't mean we shouldn't punish people who
             | make up data, who steal others' work, who steal grant money
             | by using their fake data to justify future grants.
             | 
             | "Well there's lots of people now" is not really a great
             | justification. You become a low trust society by allowing
             | trust to deteriorate. That happens in part because you
             | choose not to punish people who violate that trust in the
             | first place.
        
               | NoMoreNicksLeft wrote:
               | >that doesn't mean we shouldn't punish people who make up
               | data,
               | 
               | I am not wishy-washy on punishment. A part of me that I
               | do not deny nor suppress wants punishment for those who
               | do wrong.
               | 
               | But sometimes punishments are counter-productive. The
               | easiest example is the death penalty for heinous, non-
               | murder crimes. This incentivizes the rapist or child
               | molester (or whatever) to kill the victim. You can't
               | execute them twice, after all, so if they're already on
               | the hook for a death penalty crime, murdering their
               | victim also gets rid of a prime witness who could get
               | them the death penalty by testifying, but without
               | increasing the odds of the death penalty.
               | 
               | "Career death penalty" here is like that.
               | 
               | >"Well there's lots of people now" is not really a great
               | justification.
               | 
               | It wasn't meant to be a justification. It was an
               | explanation of the problem, and (in part, at least) and
               | attempt to show that things need to change if we want the
               | fraud to go away.
               | 
               | >You become a low trust society by allowing trust to
               | deteriorate
               | 
               | We've been a low trust society for a long time now.
               | People need to start thinking about how to accomplish the
               | long, slow process of changing a low trust society to a
               | high trust one.
        
               | hollerith wrote:
               | >We've been a low trust society for a long time now.
               | 
               | Although trust has been decreasing, the US remains a
               | high-trust society compared to the global average.
        
               | mschuster91 wrote:
               | > We've been a low trust society for a long time now.
               | People need to start thinking about how to accomplish the
               | long, slow process of changing a low trust society to a
               | high trust one.
               | 
               | The core problem is that most people define their self-
               | worth by their employment, and no matter what, this is
               | all going to crash hard due to automation. The generation
               | currently in power is doing everything they can to deny
               | and downplay what is about to happen, instead of helping
               | our societies prepare.
               | 
               | We're all being thrown into the rat race, it is being
               | told to us verbally and in personal experience that there
               | is no alternative than to become the top dog at all costs
               | because that will be the only chance to survive once
               | automation truly hits home. The result is that those who
               | have the feeling they have failed the rat race and have
               | no hope of catching up withdraw from the "societal
               | contract" and just do whatever they want, at the expense
               | of others if need be.
        
               | kevinventullo wrote:
               | In the case of academia, I'm fine with harsh punishment
               | for people who fabricate data, even if it does
               | incentivize them to be more brazen with their
               | fabrications in the short term. Makes it easier to catch
               | them!
               | 
               | The fact is, we don't want these people in academia at
               | all. You want researchers who are naturally inclined not
               | to fabricate data, not people who only play by the rules
               | because they think they're otherwise going to get caught.
        
             | nathan_compton wrote:
             | My hunch is that these double down types won't be dissuaded
             | by much of anything. I think fundamentally this kind of
             | person has a risk taking personality and often feels they
             | will get away with it.
        
           | nextos wrote:
           | > Academic fraud ranging from plagiarism to outright faking
           | data should, more often than not, make it basically
           | impossible for you to get any academic job whatsoever, in
           | your field or others.
           | 
           | Sadly, the system is often rewarding fake or, especially,
           | exaggerated/misrepresented data and conclusions. I think that
           | a significant proportion of articles exaggerate findings and
           | deliberately cherry-pick data.
           | 
           | It's a market of lemons. Proving misrepresentation is really
           | hard, and the rewards for doing so are immense. Publishing an
           | article in _Nature_ , _Science_ , or _Cell_ is a career-
           | defining moment.
        
             | pc86 wrote:
             | Yeah I agree it's not an easy problem to solve by any
             | stretch. I'm not a professor or scientist so I won't
             | pretend to understand the intricacies of journal
             | publication and that sort of thing.
             | 
             | But I do wonder when someone's PhD thesis gets published
             | and it turns out they plagiarized large parts of it, why
             | isn't their degree revoked? When someone is a professor at
             | a prestigious institution and they fabricate data, why are
             | they still teaching the following year?
        
               | nextos wrote:
               | Serious universities do often revoke doctoral degrees if
               | plagiarism is proven. I've seen Oxford University going
               | as far as demanding someone to issue a correction of a
               | journal article to cite prior work because they were
               | making some claims of novelty that were not true.
               | 
               | > When someone is a professor at a prestigious
               | institution and they fabricate data, why are they still
               | teaching the following year?
               | 
               | Internal politics. Committees judging potential
               | misconduct are not independent. If you are sufficiently
               | high up in the ladder, you can get away with many things.
               | Sweden recently created a Swedish National Board for
               | Assessment of Research Misconduct (Npof) to address this
               | problem. I think this is a step in the right direction.
               | 
               | But, ultimately, I think academic fraud should be judged
               | in court. However, e.g. Leonid Schneider
               | (forbetterscience.com) has been taken to court several
               | times for reporting fraud, including fraud that led to
               | patient death, and some judges didn't seem to care much
               | about data fabrication / misrepresentation.
        
           | MeteorMarc wrote:
           | Or get rehabilitated, like Leo Kouwenhoven, see
           | https://delta.tudelft.nl/article/gerehabiliteerde-
           | kouwenhove...
        
             | 77pt77 wrote:
             | I missed the redemption.
        
           | mensetmanusman wrote:
           | This would be half of the nsf grants according to the
           | replication crisis work.
        
       | christkv wrote:
       | So the chip is a paperweight ?
        
         | pelagicAustral wrote:
         | I propose everything is a paperweight until you show an
         | implementation.
        
         | nottorp wrote:
         | Its 5 years away, just like cold fusion and AI.
        
           | whynotmaybe wrote:
           | We've had cold fusion for years :
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adobe_ColdFusion
           | 
           | And while searching for this silly joke, I'm now baffled by
           | the fact that it's still alive !
        
             | nottorp wrote:
             | For every framework that ever existed there's somewhere out
             | there a computer running it and doing real work with it,
             | without any updates since autumn 1988, while the google
             | wannabe solo founders worry about the best crutch^H^H^H^H
             | tooling, their CI/CDs and not scaling.
        
       | russianGuy83829 wrote:
       | that's going to be a banger bobbybroccoli video
        
       | _heimdall wrote:
       | Unpopular opinion I'm sure, but I very much quantum today as
       | smoke and mirrors. I've tried to dive down that rabbit hole and I
       | keep finding myself in a sea of theoretical mathematics that
       | seems to fall into the "give me one miracle" category.
       | 
       | I expect this won't be the last time we hear about quantum
       | research that has been foundational to a lot of work turns out to
       | have been manipulated, or designed poorly and unverified by other
       | research labs.
        
         | yesbut wrote:
         | It is all a scam. The research side is interesting for what it
         | is, but the idea of having any type of useful "quantum
         | computer" is sci-fi make believe. The grifters will keep
         | stringing investors and these large corporations along for as
         | long as possible. Total waste of resources.
        
           | roflmaostc wrote:
           | Why do you think so?
           | 
           | Your words sounds like what people said in the 40s and 50s
           | about computers.
        
             | skywhopper wrote:
             | Do you have any citations for that?
        
               | reaperducer wrote:
               | _Do you have any citations for that?_
               | 
               | I'm not the OP, but when you're of a certain age, you
               | don't need citations for that. Memory serves. And my
               | family was saying those sorts of things and teasing me
               | about being into computers as late as the 1970's.
        
               | DangitBobby wrote:
               | I would actually like to read about that, though.
        
               | Henchman21 wrote:
               | When you're of a certain age, time has likely blurred
               | your memories. Citation becomes more important then.
               | Source: me I'm an old SOB.
        
               | reaperducer wrote:
               | _Source: me I'm an old SOB._
               | 
               | By your own criteria, a citation better than "me" is
               | needed.
        
               | pessimizer wrote:
               | Looks like you've got it.
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | I can attest to the fact that people who didn't
               | understand computers at all were questioning the value of
               | spending time on them long after the 1970s. The issue is
               | that there are people today who do understand quantum
               | computing that are questioning their value and that's not
               | a great sign.
        
               | roflmaostc wrote:
               | https://www.ittc.ku.edu/~evans/stuff/famous.html
        
             | lucianbr wrote:
             | Survivor bias. Just because a certain thing seemed like a
             | scam and turned out useful does not mean all things that
             | seem like a scam will turn out useful.
        
               | monooso wrote:
               | GP's comment didn't suggest that _every_ supposed scam
               | will turn out to be useful.
               | 
               | Quite the opposite, in fact. It was pointing out that
               | _some_ supposed scams do turn out to be useful.
        
               | mrguyorama wrote:
               | GP is just blatantly wrong. Electronic computation was
               | NEVER considered a "scam".
               | 
               | The Navy, Air Force, government, private institutions,
               | etc didn't dump billions of funding into computers
               | because they thought they were overrated.
        
             | RhysabOweyn wrote:
             | I don't think that you can really make that comparison.
             | "Conventional" computers had more proven practical usage
             | (especially by nation states) in the 40s/50s than quantum
             | computing does today.
        
             | empath75 wrote:
             | By the 1940s and 50s, computers were already being used for
             | practical and useful work, and calculating machines had a
             | _long_ history of being useful, and it didn't take that
             | long between the _idea_ of a calculating machine and having
             | something that people paid for and used because it had
             | practical value.
             | 
             | They've been plugging along at quantum computers for
             | decades now and have not produced a single useful machine
             | (although a lot of the math and science behind it has been
             | useful for theoretical physics).
        
             | os2warpman wrote:
             | In the 40s and 50s programmable general-purpose electronic
             | computers were solving problems.
             | 
             | Ballistics tables, decryption of enemy messages, and more.
             | Early programmable general-purpose electronic computers,
             | from the moment they were turned on could solve problems in
             | minutes that would take human computers months or years. In
             | the 40s, ENIAC proved the feasibility of thermonuclear
             | weaponry.
             | 
             | By 1957 the promise and peril of computing entered popular
             | culture with the Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn film
             | "Desk Set" where a computer is installed in a library and
             | runs amok, firing everybody, all while romantic shenanigans
             | occur. It was sponsored by IBM and is one of the first
             | instances of product placement in films.
             | 
             | People knew "electronic brains" were the future the second
             | they started spitting out printouts of practically
             | unsolvable problems instantly-- they just didn't (during
             | your timeframe) predict the invention and adoption of the
             | transistor and its miniaturization, which made computers
             | ubiquitous household objects.
             | 
             | Even the quote about the supposed limited market for
             | computers trotted out from time-to-time to demonstrate the
             | hesitance of industry and academia to adopt computers is
             | wrong.
             | 
             | In 1953 when Thomas Watson said that "there's only a market
             | for five computers" what he actually said was "When we
             | developed the IBM 701 we created a customer list of 20
             | organizations who might want it and because it is so
             | expensive we expected to only sign five deals, but we ended
             | up signing 18" (paraphrased).
             | 
             | Militaries, universities, and industry all wanted all of
             | the programmable general-purpose electronic computers they
             | could afford the second it became available because they
             | all knew that it could solve problems.
             | 
             | Included for comparison is a list of problems that quantum
             | computing has solved:
        
             | belter wrote:
             | You can't put a man on the Sun just because you put one on
             | the Moon.
        
           | Mistletoe wrote:
           | I became disillusioned when I learned that 5x3=15 was the
           | largest number that has been factored by a quantum computer
           | without tricks or scams. Then I became even more
           | disillusioned when I learned the 15 may not be legit...
           | 
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/QuantumComputing/comments/1535lii/w.
           | ..
        
           | cess11 wrote:
           | IBM has given the public access to qubits for close to a
           | decade, including a free tier, and as far as I know it
           | produced a stream of research articles that fizzled out
           | several years ago and nothing generally useful.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Quantum_Platform
        
         | AndrewStephens wrote:
         | In 2001, a pure quantum computer using Shor's algorithm
         | correctly gave the prime factors of 15. In 2012 they managed to
         | find the prime factors of 21. Since then, everyone has given up
         | on the purely quantum approach by using lots of traditional
         | CPU-time to preprocess the input, somewhat defeating the
         | purpose.
         | 
         | Its a shame. I was really looking forward to finding out what
         | the prime factors of 34 are.
        
           | JohnKemeny wrote:
           | If I understand correctly, they didn't actually _find_ the
           | prime factors, they merely verified them, so it 's
           | unfortunately up to you to factor 34. Maybe some time in the
           | future a quantum machine can verify whether you were right.
        
             | teekert wrote:
             | It's 2 and 17, I asked Claude.
        
               | Lionga wrote:
               | Not sure if it was more wasteful of energy asking Claude
               | or trying to solve it with Quantum.
        
               | solardev wrote:
               | A twelve year old could do it for 500 kcal of cookies.
        
               | tomashubelbauer wrote:
               | I volunteer as a tribute
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Reminds me of the Groucho Marx line: "A child of five
               | could understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of
               | five."
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | At least quantum computers are cool.
        
               | RHSeeger wrote:
               | We could ask Claude to generate the schematics for a
               | quantum computer that can find the prime factors of 21.
               | Then we get the best of both worlds.
        
               | AndrewStephens wrote:
               | AI can do that now? Looks like I have to upgrade all of
               | my 5-bit SSL keys.
        
               | xxs wrote:
               | >5-bit SSL keys.
               | 
               | 34 requires 6 bits, though
        
               | Bootvis wrote:
               | Hence the urgency.
        
           | xxs wrote:
           | The infamous 21 (which is half of 42) was my 1st thought when
           | I heard 'unpopular' which is of course a very popular
           | opinion.
        
           | thesz wrote:
           | https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1018.pdf
           | 
           | "As pointed out in [57], there has never been a genuine
           | implementation of Shor's algorithm. The only numbers ever to
           | have been factored by that type of algorithm are 15 and 21,
           | and those factorizations used a simplified version of Shor's
           | algorithm that requires one to know the factorization in
           | advance..."
           | 
           | If you have a clue what these factors are, you can build an
           | implementation of Shor's algorithm for them, I guess.
        
             | EvgeniyZh wrote:
             | There was for this year's sigbovik [1]
             | 
             | [1]
             | https://fixupx.com/CraigGidney/status/1907199729362186309
        
         | bwfan123 wrote:
         | What amazes me is how big tech wants to be in on this
         | bandwagon. There is fomo, and each company announces its own
         | chip that does something - and nobody knows what. The risk of
         | inaction is bigger than the risk of failure.
         | 
         | Meanwhile, a networking company wants to "network" these chips
         | - what does that even mean ? And a gpu company produces a
         | library for computing with quantum.
         | 
         | Smoke-and-mirrors can carry on for a long time, and fool the
         | best of them. Isaac Newton was in on the alchemist bandwagon.
        
           | mepian wrote:
           | It is really desperation, the low-hanging fruit of computing
           | paradigm shifts to fuel the "tech" industry's growth was
           | completely plucked more than a decade ago.
        
           | cjbgkagh wrote:
           | AFAIK, in the case of Microsoft, it's less FOMO and more
           | about execs being able to impress their peers at other
           | companies. So not really a fear of missing out but a desire
           | to have an exclusive access to a technology that has already
           | been socialized and widely understood to be impressive. It's
           | a simple message, 'that impressive thing you've been reading
           | about, we're the ones building that'.
        
             | jhallenworld wrote:
             | Also: the big company "thought leaders" need something new
             | to talk about every year at conferences like "Microsoft
             | Ignite" or whatever. These people will push funding into
             | things like quantum research just for this. I'm sure
             | they're getting lots of mileage out of LLMs these days...
             | 
             | I'm maybe a little jaded having worked on whole products
             | that had no market success, but were in fact just so that
             | the company had something new to talk about.
        
           | shalg wrote:
           | There are exactly 2 reasons we might want quantum networks.
           | 
           | 1. 100% secure communication channels (even better we can
           | detect any attempt at eavesdropping and whatever information
           | is captured will be useless to the eavesdropper)
           | 
           | 2. Building larger quantum computers. A high fidelity quantum
           | network would allow you to compute simultaneously with
           | multiple quantum chips by interfacing them.
           | 
           | The thing that makes quantum networking different from
           | regular networking is that you have to be very careful to not
           | disturb the state of the photons you are sending down the
           | fiber optics.
           | 
           | Im currently doing my PhD building quantum networking devices
           | so im a bit biased but I think it's pretty cool :).
           | 
           | Now does it matter I'm not sure. Reason 1 isn't really that
           | useful because encryption is very secure. However if quantum
           | computers start to scale up and some encryption methods get
           | obsoleted this could be nice. Also having encryption that is
           | provably secure would be nice regardless.
           | 
           | Reason 2 at the moment seems like the only path to building
           | large scale quantum computing. Think a datacenter with many
           | networked quantum chips.
        
             | nativeit wrote:
             | I feel like most of your answer was just re-stating the
             | question. I'm happy to admit that's almost certainly a mix
             | of my ignorance on the topic at hand, and I have been
             | primed to view the discussions surrounding quantum
             | computing with suspicion, but either way, that's the way it
             | reads to this layperson.
        
             | chatmasta wrote:
             | If studio execs have their way, Quantum DRM will be the
             | killer use case...
        
               | autoexec wrote:
               | Jokes on them, we'll just end up creating and using
               | quantum pirating systems or even the dreaded Quantum
               | Analog Hole to evade it.
        
             | nativeit wrote:
             | > 100% secure communication channels (even better we can
             | detect any attempt at eavesdropping and whatever
             | information is captured will be useless to the
             | eavesdropper) chips. A few follow up questions:
             | 
             | 1. What is it about quantum computers that can guarantee
             | 100% secure communication channels?
             | 
             | 2. If the communications are 100% secure, why are we
             | worried about eavesdropping?
             | 
             | 3. If it can detect eavesdropping, why do we need to
             | concern ourselves with the information they might see/hear?
             | Just respond to the detection.
             | 
             | 4. What is it about quantum computing that would make an
             | eavesdroppers' overheard information useless to them,
             | without also obviating said information to the intended
             | recipients?
             | 
             | This is where the language used to discuss this topic turns
             | into word salad for me. None of the things you said
             | necessarily follow from the things that were said before
             | them, but rather just levied as accepted fact.
        
               | foota wrote:
               | Sorry, but I think the way you're phrasing this implies a
               | burden on them to explain well understood and widely
               | accepted principles of quantum physics that you seem to
               | be implying are pseudoscience.
               | 
               | This seems like a decent overview if you want to learn
               | more: https://www.chalmers.se/en/centres/wacqt/discover-
               | quantum-te....
        
               | SAI_Peregrinus wrote:
               | 1. Nothing. Quantum Key Distribution is what they're
               | talking about, and it still requires P!=NP because
               | there's a classical cryptographic step involved (several,
               | actually). It just allows you to exchange symmetric keys
               | with a party you've used classical cryptography to
               | authenticate, it's vulnerable to MITM attacks otherwise.
               | So you're dependent on classical signatures and PKI to
               | authenticate the endpoints. And you're exchanging
               | classical symmetric keys, so still dependent on the
               | security of classical encryption like AES-GCM.
               | 
               | 2. Because they're not 100% secure. Only the key exchange
               | step with an authenticated endpoint is 100% secure.
               | 
               | 3. Eavesdropping acts like a denial of service and breaks
               | all communications on the channel.
               | 
               | 4. It makes the information useless to _everyone_ , both
               | the eavesdropper and the recipients. Attempting to
               | eavesdrop on a QKD channel randomizes the transmitted
               | data. It's a DOS attack. The easier DOS attack is to
               | break the fiber-optic cable transmitting the light
               | pulses, since every endpoint needs a dedicated fiber to
               | connect to every other endpoint.
        
               | staunton wrote:
               | > Only the key exchange step with an authenticated
               | endpoint is 100% secure.
               | 
               | It's 100% secure _in theory_ , assuming a model of the
               | hardware (which is impossible to verify even if you could
               | build it to "perfectly" satisfy all model assumptions,
               | which of course you also can't).
        
             | thesz wrote:
             | What is the difference between channel error or distortion
             | and eavesdropping?
        
               | staunton wrote:
               | For eavesdropping, there is someone there who cares about
               | what you're sending and is successfully learning things
               | about it.
        
           | sharpshadow wrote:
           | It's not only big tech. Since months I'm reading about joint
           | venture types between companies of European countries with
           | state sponsoring in QC. When you follow the path there are a
           | bundle of fresh created companies in every country each
           | claiming a branch like quantum communication, quantum
           | encryption, quantum this.. all working together and
           | cooperating with the same companies in other EU countries.
           | 
           | Still trying to figure out what is going on. Are they
           | preposition for the upcoming breakthroughs and until then it
           | will be like the beginning in AI where many claimed to have
           | it but actually just pretended. Additionally they likely want
           | to access the money flow.
        
           | no_wizard wrote:
           | >Isaac Newton was in on the alchemist bandwagon
           | 
           | An often overlooked or unmentioned fact too!
           | 
           | I think its a shame, because it humanizes the (for lack of a
           | better term) smartest people in history to know these things
           | about them.
           | 
           | Yes, Newton invented calculus, but he also tried to turn lead
           | into gold!
           | 
           | So you too, might be able to do something novel, is the idea.
        
         | 77pt77 wrote:
         | > I very much quantum today as smoke and mirrors
         | 
         | The most accurate and expirimentaly tested theory of reality is
         | "smoke and mirrors".
         | 
         | There are so many other areas to say that about, even in
         | physics. But this?...
        
           | tokai wrote:
           | With the context of the article its clear that GP means
           | quantum computing.
        
         | gaze wrote:
         | Pessimistically I think it's most comparable to fusion.
         | Theoretically possible but very difficult. I'm biased because
         | I'm in the industry, but nothing has cropped up that I've seen
         | that requires a miracle.
        
           | naasking wrote:
           | > I'm biased because I'm in the industry, but nothing has
           | cropped up that I've seen that requires a miracle.
           | 
           | Scaling is itself the open question. Gravitational effects
           | start creeping in when you scale up sensitive entangled
           | systems and we don't have a good understanding of how gravity
           | interacts with entanglement. Entangled systems above a
           | certain size may just be impossible.
        
           | shrubble wrote:
           | The difference is that whenever it's daytime and there aren't
           | many clouds in the sky, you can see an example of fusion
           | working at scale...
        
             | krastanov wrote:
             | And every time you use a transistor, observe a green plant
             | living, or see that your hand does not pass through the
             | table when you tap it, you see quantum mechanical effects
             | working at scale. Every time you use a telescope, you see
             | quantum information processing (interference) at scale. The
             | control over that process is the difficult part, same as
             | with fusion.
        
               | walleeee wrote:
               | Transistors, plants, hands, and tables are all
               | macroscopic. We see quantum mechanical effects, but we do
               | not see stable superpositions. None of these real-world
               | examples seem to shield a quantum state from decoherence
               | in the way a quantum computer needs to. The sun
               | demonstrates clearly that fusion is controllable (albeit
               | in a regime we struggle to match). I don't think your
               | examples show that a quantum state can be controlled at
               | the scale we need it to be, and I don't know of any
               | extant phenomena that do. But I am no expert, yell at me
               | if I'm wrong.
        
               | krastanov wrote:
               | On the contrary, we have plenty of examples of long-lived
               | (many hours, days, or more) examples of superposition in
               | many solid state materials and chemical systems. For a
               | quantum computer you need both (1) something that can
               | retain superposition and (2) be easily controllable.
               | Point 2 is the difficult one, because if you can control
               | it (interact with it), the "environment" can interact
               | with it and destroy it as well.
               | 
               | All of the examples of macroscopic effects above are
               | possible thanks to effects explainable only through the
               | existence of superposition. It is just that they are not
               | particularly controllable and thus not of interest for
               | storing quantum information.
               | 
               | Another fun point: the example you are focusing on,
               | fusion happening in the sun, is only possible due to the
               | quantum tunneling effect, which is itself dependent on
               | "superposition" being a real thing. Looking past the
               | clouds at our star is already an example of quantum
               | mechanics working, which is very much an experimental
               | observation of an effect possible only thanks to the
               | existence of superposition.
        
           | _heimdall wrote:
           | Quantum state _is_ the miracle in my opinion. By definition
           | it can never really be confirmed.
           | 
           | You cannot observe the initial state because that collapses
           | the super position. Said more simply, we can only see the end
           | result and make educated guesses as to how it happened and
           | what the state was prior to the experiment.
        
         | tjpnz wrote:
         | Quantum annealers have been working on real world problems for
         | a while now - assuming they can be expressed as combinatorial
         | optimization problems of course.
        
           | krastanov wrote:
           | But there is no scalable computational advantage with quantum
           | annealers. They are not what most people in the field would
           | call a "(scalable/digital) quantum computer".
        
         | hnthrow90348765 wrote:
         | D-Wave venturing into blockchain stuff raised a red flag for me
         | as a layman investor: https://ir.dwavesys.com/news/news-
         | details/2025/D-Wave-Introd...
         | 
         | There are maybe other reasons to invest, but this caused me to
         | sell my shares
        
         | EvgeniyZh wrote:
         | > won't be the last time we hear about quantum research that
         | has been foundational to a lot of work
         | 
         | This research wasn't foundational to a lot of work. Most of
         | important/foundational works in quantum (doesn't matter if
         | computing or general, I'm not sure which one you meant) are
         | verified. How can you possibly base your experimental work on
         | someone else's work if you can't replicate it?
        
           | _heimdall wrote:
           | Scientific research today is largely about publishing
           | positive results, we rarely see negative results published
           | and most people focus on publish novel work rather than
           | attempting to validate someone else's work.
           | 
           | I agree with you, its a terrible idea to base your work on
           | someone else's when it hasn't been well confirmed in
           | independent research.
           | 
           | I consider the source work in the OP as foundational because
           | Microsoft built so much work and spent so many resources
           | building on top of it. It's not foundational to the entire
           | field but it _is_ foundational to a lot of follow-up
           | research.
        
             | EvgeniyZh wrote:
             | > I agree with you, its a terrible idea to base your work
             | on someone else's when it hasn't been well confirmed in
             | independent research.
             | 
             | It's not about whether it's good or bad idea. To make
             | follow-up experiments you need to first reproduce the
             | original experiment. That's why faking "big" experiments
             | like Schon could never work.
             | 
             | > Microsoft built so much work and spent so many resources
             | building on top of it. It's not foundational to the entire
             | field but it is foundational to a lot of follow-up
             | research.
             | 
             | Will all due respect, a single group (even large one) doing
             | a single type of experiments (even important and
             | complicated one) is not a lot of research. Also, Microsoft
             | knew about data manipulation, that why they moved the
             | experiments in house. They didn't do experiments under
             | assumption that the early Majorana papers are correct, then
             | they wouldn't need to develop their own complicated (and
             | somewhat controversial) protocol to detect Majoranas. It
             | was quite clear for everyone that regardless of data
             | manipulation people were too optimistic interpreting
             | Majorana signatures in these early papers.
        
         | andrepd wrote:
         | Wait just so I'm sure I understand what you're saying: you
         | tried to read but don't understand the mathematics, therefore
         | it's smoke and mirrors.
        
       | trentnix wrote:
       | Looks like the end of the world has been delayed.
        
       | anonym29 wrote:
       | Microsoft's finest, ladies and gentlemen.
        
       | sschueller wrote:
       | Sadly I have the feeling some people are starting to just "play"
       | being scientists/engineers and not actually doing the real work
       | anymore.
        
         | 77pt77 wrote:
         | MBA science.
         | 
         | Only perception matters?
        
           | nathan_compton wrote:
           | "Fake it till you make it" was practically the motto of young
           | scientists when I was matriculating. In fairness, I don't
           | think they really meant "fake your research" but our entire
           | incentive/competition based society encourages positive
           | misrepresentation - you can't do science, good or bad, if you
           | get competed out of the system entirely.
           | 
           | Guy Debord wrote a book about what he called "The Society of
           | the Spectacle," wherein he argues that capitalism, mostly by
           | virtue of transforming objects into cash at the point of
           | exchange, (that is, a person can take the money and run)
           | tends to cause all things to become evacuated, reduced as
           | much as possible to their image, rather than their substance.
           | 
           | I believe even GK Chesterton understood this when he said
           | that the purpose of a shovel is to dig, not to be sold, but
           | that capitalism tends to see everything as something to be
           | sold primarily and then as something to be used perhaps
           | secondarily.
           | 
           | There is some truth in all this, I think, though obviously
           | the actual physical requirements of living and doing things
           | place some restrictions on how far we can transform things
           | into their images.
        
             | caseyy wrote:
             | "Fake it till you make it." has turned into "fake it."
             | recently, and it seems to be working disturbingly well in
             | society.
        
       | Panoramix wrote:
       | Looking at the paper, cherry picking 5 out of 21 devices is in
       | itself not a deal breaker IMO, but it's certainly something they
       | should have disclosed. I bet this happens all the time with these
       | kinds of exotic devices that take almost a year to manufacture
       | only for a single misplaced atom to ruin the whole measurement.
       | 
       | Average of positive and negative Vbias data and many other
       | manipulations are hard to justify, this reeks of "desperate PhD
       | needed to publish at all costs". Yet at the same time I wouldn't
       | fully disqualify the findings, but make the conclusion a lot
       | weaker "there might be something here".
       | 
       | All in all, it's in Microsoft's interests that the data is not
       | cooked. They can only ride on vaporware for so long. Sooner or
       | later the truth will come out; and if Microsoft is burning a lot
       | of cash to lie to everyone, the only loser will be Microsoft.
        
         | darth_avocado wrote:
         | > cherry picking 5 out of 21 devices is in itself not a deal
         | breaker IMO
         | 
         | Might as well draw a straight line through a cloud of data
         | points that look like a dog
        
           | crote wrote:
           | It's a physical device at the bleeding edge of capabilities.
           | Defects are pretty much a guarantee, and getting a working
           | sample is a numbers game. Is it really _that_ strange to not
           | get a 100% yield?
           | 
           | Having 5 working devices out of 21 is normal. The problem is
           | that the other 16 weren't mentioned.
        
             | darth_avocado wrote:
             | Well you also need to account for what kind of deviation
             | are we talking about between the 21. If they selected the 5
             | because they were the best, but the others showed results
             | that were within say 0-5% of the 5, then sure that is
             | acceptable. But if we're talking about flipping a coin 21
             | times, seeing heads 16 times and then choosing the 5 tails
             | outcomes as the results, then I would say that's pretty
             | unacceptable.
        
               | Panoramix wrote:
               | Like I said, a single misplaced atom is enough to wreak
               | havoc in the behaviour of these things. That's not the
               | problem, everyone knows there's a large gap between
               | phenomena observed, and making it consistently
               | manufacturable with high yield.
        
               | krastanov wrote:
               | I do not think this is the right metaphor. Having 5
               | devices work out of 21 is actually a better yield than
               | what TSMC would get with a brand new process. This is not
               | just normal, this is expected. It is all the other
               | allegations that make this be a very questionable case.
        
         | nathan_compton wrote:
         | > the only loser will be Microsoft.
         | 
         | Not really - that cash could have been allocated to more
         | productive work and more honest people.
        
         | absolutelastone wrote:
         | It wasn't just that by itself. There was a list of several
         | undisclosed data tweaks and manipulations. None were
         | particularly fraudulent or anything, but once you have them all
         | included in the paper, as the former author was complaining, it
         | seems more likely that they just manipulated the theory and
         | data as needed to make them match. There's a big difference
         | between predicting something and demonstrating it in
         | experiment, versus showing your theory can be made to fit some
         | data you have been given when you can pick the right
         | adjustments and subset of data.
        
       | teekert wrote:
       | Sabine was already skeptical in February [0]. Although to be
       | fair, she usually is :) But in this field, I think it is
       | warranted.
       | 
       | [0]: https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2025/02/microsoft-
       | exaggera...
        
         | eqvinox wrote:
         | Sabine Hossenfelder has grown a little... controversial...
         | lately. You should probably do some googling (or YouTube
         | searching, in this case.) It's not entirely clear to me what's
         | going on but some of her videos do raise serious question
         | marks.
        
           | matkoniecz wrote:
           | can you be more specific what you are alleging?
           | 
           | and little controversy is not automatically a problem or
           | reason to discount/ignore someone anyway
        
             | HideousKojima wrote:
             | There was an email she claimed to have received many years
             | ago from another academic essentially saying "you're right
             | that a lot of academic research is BS and just a jobs
             | program for academics, but you shouldn't point that out
             | because it's threatening a lot of people's livelihood."
             | Some people are claiming she fabricated this alleged email
             | etc., I haven't looked too much into it myself.
        
               | hinkley wrote:
               | I end up playing father confessor often enough at work
               | that I have had to launder things people have complained
               | about.
               | 
               | When you are trying to make the right calls for a team,
               | you need to know what the pushback is, but the bullies
               | and masochists on the team don't need to know who
               | specifically brought forward a complaint as long as the
               | leadership accept it as a valid concern.
               | 
               | So if everyone knows I had a private meeting with Mike
               | yesterday it's going to be pretty fucking obvious that I
               | got this from Mike unless I fib a bit about the details.
               | 
               | Saying a conversation during a visit happened in email
               | sounds like about the sort of thing I might lie about
               | while not making up the conversation from whole cloth.
               | 
               | Not that Sabine is perfect. I've let the YouTube
               | algorithm know I want to see less of her stuff. But just
               | because there is no email doesn't mean there was no
               | conversation.
        
             | immibis wrote:
             | She has a tendency to be wrong on things outside her domain
             | of expertise. It's the classic being an expert in one field
             | and thinking you're an expert in all of them.
        
               | dimal wrote:
               | Please give specific examples. I keep seeing vague
               | comments like this about her, but very little in the way
               | of specifics. Without specifics, this is just ad hominem
               | rumor mongering.
        
               | krastanov wrote:
               | Extreme specifics: her comments on work out of MIT on
               | Color Center Qubits was basically "finally an example of
               | actual progress in quantum computing because of reason A,
               | B, C". That statement was in the class of "not even
               | wrong" -- it was just complete non sequitur. People
               | actually in the fields she comments on frequently laugh
               | at her uninformed nonsense. In this particular case, the
               | people that did the study she praised were also among the
               | ones laughing at her.
        
             | eqvinox wrote:
             | No, I'm intentionally not taking a position or alleging
             | anything. I'm pointing out the existence of some
             | controversy. It's up to you to decide whether you want to
             | look into it, and if yes, what sources to prefer.
        
           | antidumbass wrote:
           | I've found great success in ignoring, entirely, baseless
           | aspersions cast by faceless anon avatars about people in the
           | public eye.
        
         | dsabanin wrote:
         | Is there something she is not skeptical of or controversial
         | about?
        
           | nlitened wrote:
           | Einstein equations
        
             | dsabanin wrote:
             | Hm, that may be controversial in itself, depending on where
             | you stand in the current cosmology.
        
           | hinkley wrote:
           | I don't know if she has changed or I have changed but I don't
           | enjoy her stuff anymore. Maybe I should watch some of her old
           | stuff and figure that out.
        
             | teekert wrote:
             | I'm starting to feel the same indeed.
        
         | chermi wrote:
         | A broken clock....
        
       | os2warpman wrote:
       | As far as I can tell the only thing >25 years of development into
       | quantum computing implementations has resulted in is the
       | prodigious consumption of helium-3.
       | 
       | At least with fusion we've gotten some cool lasers, magnets, and
       | test and measurement gear.
        
         | krastanov wrote:
         | You are right about that (well, except all the progress in
         | classical complexity theory and algorithms, cosmology,
         | condensed matter physics, material science, and sensing, which
         | stemmed from this domain).
         | 
         | But, for the little it is worth, it took much longer between
         | Babbage conceiving of a classical computer and humanity
         | developing the technology to make classical computers reliable.
         | Babbage died before it was possible to build the classical
         | computers he invented.
        
           | os2warpman wrote:
           | If you are going to use Babbage as the start of the clock, we
           | must use the mechanical and electromechanical logarithmic and
           | analytical engines created in the late 1800s/early 1900s as
           | the stop.
           | 
           | We must also use 1980 as the year in which quantum computing
           | was "invented".
           | 
           | As far as progress goes, in all of those fields there are
           | naught but papers that say "quantum computing would be
           | totally rad in these fields" or simulations that are slower
           | than classical computers. (by, like, a lot)
        
             | krastanov wrote:
             | There has been a programmable electromechanical computer
             | build in the late 1800? Not just a simple calculator?
             | Please share examples, this sounds awesome.
             | 
             | Yes, late 1980s is when I would say quantum computing was
             | conceived.
             | 
             | I gave plenty of examples of positive outcomes thanks to
             | quantum information science in my parenthetical. It is much
             | more than the overhyped VC-funded vapor.
        
         | Hasz wrote:
         | This kind of fundamental research though is absolutely worth
         | it. For a fairly small amount of money (on the nation-state
         | scale) you can literally change the world order. Same deal with
         | fusion or other long-term research programs.
         | 
         | Quantum computers are still in a hype bubble right now, but
         | having a "real" functional one (nothing right now is close IMO)
         | is a big a shift as nuclear energy or the transistor.
         | 
         | Even if we don't get a direct result, ancillary research
         | products can still be useful, as you mentioned with fusion.
        
       | chermi wrote:
       | Based on the comments in this thread... Guys, Microsoft fuckery
       | doesn't invalidate an entire field.
       | 
       | I think certain VCs are a little too optimistic about quantum
       | computing timelines, but that doesn't mean it's not steadily
       | progressing. I saw a comment talking about prime factorization
       | from 2001 with some claim that people haven't been working on
       | pure quantum computing since then?
       | 
       | It's really hard. It's still firmly academic, with the peculiar
       | factor that much of it is industry backed. Google quantum was a
       | UCSB research lab turned into a Google branch, while still being
       | powered by grad students. You can begin to see how there's going
       | to be some culture clash and unfortunate pressure to make claims
       | and take research paths atypical of academia (not excusing any
       | fraud, edit: also to be very clear, not accusing Google quantum
       | of anything). It's a hard problem in a funky environment.
       | 
       | 1) it's a really hard problem. Anything truly quantum is hard to
       | deal with, especially if you require long coherence times.
       | Consider the entire field of condensed matter (+ some amo). Many
       | of the experiments to measure special quantum properties/confirm
       | theories do so in a destructive manner - I'm not talking only
       | about the quantum measurement problem, I'm talking about the
       | probes themselves physically altering the system such that you
       | can only get one or maybe a few good measurements before the
       | sample is useless. In quantum computing, things need to be cold,
       | isolated, yet still read/write accessible over many many cycles
       | in order to be useful.
       | 
       | 2) given the difficulty, there's been many proposals for how to
       | meet the "practical quantum computer" requirement. This ranges
       | from giving up on a true general purpose quantum computer
       | (quantum annealers) to NV vacancies, neutral/ionic lattices,
       | squid/Josephson based,photonic, hybrid system with mechanical
       | resonators, and yeah, topological/anyon shit.
       | 
       | 3) It's hard to predict what will actually work, so every
       | approach is a gamble and different groups take different gambles.
       | Some take bigger gambles than the others. Id say topological
       | quantum was a pretty damn big gamble given how new the theory
       | was.
       | 
       | 4) Then you need to gradually build up the actually system +
       | infrastructure, validating each subsystem then subsystem
       | interactions and finally full systems. Think system preparation,
       | system readout, system manipulation, isolation, gate design...
       | Each piece of this could be multiple +/- physicist, ece/cse, me,
       | CS PhDs + postdocs amount of work. This is deep expertise and
       | specialization.
       | 
       | 4) Then if one approach seems to work, however poorly*, you need
       | to improve it, scale it. Scaling is not guaranteed. This will
       | mean many more PhDs worth trying to improve subsystems.
       | 
       | 5) again, this is really hard. Truly, purely quantum systems are
       | very difficult to work with. Classical computing is built on
       | transistors, which operate just fine at room temperature*
       | _(plenty of noise, no need for cold isolation) with macroscopic
       | classical observables /manipulations like current, voltage. Yes,
       | transistors work because of quantum effects, and with more recent
       | transistors more directly use quantum effects (tunneling). For
       | example, the "atomic" units of memory are still effectively
       | macroscopic. The systems as a whole are very well described
       | classically, with only practical engineering concerns related to
       | putting things too close together, impurities, heat dissipation.
       | Not to say that any of that is easy at all, but there's no
       | question of principle like "will this even work?"
       | 
       | * With a bunch of people on HN shitting on how poorly + a bunch
       | of other people saying its a full blown quantum computer +
       | probably higher ups trying to make you say it is a real quantum
       | computer or something about quantum supremacy.
       | 
       | *_Even in this classical regime think how much effort went into
       | redundancy and encoding/decoding schemes to deal with the very
       | rare bit flips. Now think of what's needed to build a functioning
       | quantum computer at similar scale
       | 
       | No, I don't work in quantum computing, don't invest in it, have
       | no stake in it.
        
         | wordpad wrote:
         | Why couldn't single-user quantum computers be a viable path?
         | 
         | General computing is great, but we built large hadron collider
         | to validate a few specific physics theories, couldn't we we
         | make do with single-use quantum computer for important
         | problems? Prove out some physics simulation, or to break some
         | military encryption or something?
        
           | chermi wrote:
           | Oh sure, I'm all for that in the mean time. But the people
           | funding this are looking for big payoff. I want to be clear
           | that this is not my field and I'm probably a bit behind on
           | the latest, especially on the algorithmic side.
           | 
           | IIRC some of them have done proof of principle solutions to
           | hydrogen atom ground state, for example. I haven't kept up
           | but I'm guessing they've solved more complicated systems by
           | now. I don't know if they've gone beyond ground states.
           | 
           | Taking this particular problem as an example... The
           | challenge, in my mind, is that we already have pretty good
           | classical approaches the problem. Say the limit of current
           | approaches is characterized by something like the number of
           | electrons ( I don't know actual scaling factors) and that
           | number is N_C(lassical). I think the complexity and thus
           | required advances (difficulty) for building special purpose
           | hypothetical quantum ground state solver that can solve the
           | problem for N_Q >> N_C is similar enough to the difficulty
           | required to scale a more general quantum computer to some
           | "problem" size of moderately smaller magnitude that it's
           | probably hard to justify the funding for the special purpose
           | one over the generic one.
           | 
           | I could be way off, and it's very possible there's new
           | algorithms to solve specific problems that I'm unaware of.
           | Such algorithms with an accompanying special purpose quantum
           | computer could make its construction investible in the sense
           | that efficient solutions to problem under consideration are
           | worth enough to offset the cost. Sorry that was very
           | convoluted phrasing but I'm on my phone and I gtg.
        
       | devwastaken wrote:
       | intellectual property is the entire point of modern tech. it
       | doesnt matter if it doesnt work. they want the IP and sit on it.
       | that way if someone else actually does the work they can claim
       | they own it.
       | 
       | repeal IP laws and regulate tech.
        
       | m101 wrote:
       | I bet you quantum computing will go the way of Newtonian physics
       | - wrong and only proven so by our ability to measure things.
       | 
       | It's as if Newton insisted that he was right despite the orbit of
       | mercury being weird, and blaming his telescope.
       | 
       | Physics is just a description of reality. If your business
       | depends on reality being _the same_ as the model, then you 're
       | going to have an expensive time.
        
         | thrance wrote:
         | Uuh no? Quantum computing relies on some aspects of quantum
         | physics, that at this point, have been thoroughly and
         | extensively experimentally verified.
         | 
         | If there are objections to quantum computing, and I believe
         | there are many, those are to be found in questioning the
         | capability of current engineering to build a quantum computer,
         | or the usefulness of one if it could be built.
        
           | m101 wrote:
           | As the old saying goes: the proof is in the pudding. And
           | quantum computing has produced zero pudding. All hype, and
           | zero pudding. When they actually do something useful (like
           | the equivalent of general relativity and solving GPS), then
           | we can see it as a _useful_ theory.
        
         | staunton wrote:
         | We still use Newton's equations for building rockets (and a
         | _lot_ of other things). A theory being replaced by a better one
         | does not mean devices motivated by the obsoleted theory stop
         | working...
        
           | m101 wrote:
           | We use general relativity for anything fast moving I think.
           | Not sure, but pretty sure. GPS wouldn't work with newton. But
           | that's the point, newton mostly works _to within an error of
           | measurement_
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2025-05-09 23:01 UTC)