[HN Gopher] Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop B...
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       Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire
        
       Author : mfiguiere
       Score  : 255 points
       Date   : 2025-05-03 18:16 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | jll29 wrote:
       | https://web.archive.org/web/20250503183427/https://www.bloom...
        
       | nu11ptr wrote:
       | Wow, not sure why this surprises me, but I guess I figured he
       | would be like Charlie and keep working until he passed.
        
         | Lammy wrote:
         | Had to look this up because I am not rich enough to be on a
         | first-name basis with my close personal billionaire friend
         | Charles Thomas Munger
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger
        
           | palmotea wrote:
           | > Had to look this up because I am not rich enough to be on a
           | first-name basis with my close personal billionaire friend
           | Charles Thomas Munger
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger
           | 
           | It's almost certain that the GP isn't either, and is only
           | _para_ socially on a first name basis.
        
         | rufus_foreman wrote:
         | I would assume this means that he is not in great health.
         | Hopefully I'm wrong and he just decided that 85 years or so of
         | hustling for dollars was enough.
        
           | unsnap_biceps wrote:
           | At 94, if he had a health concern, I don't think he'd be
           | planning out 7 months for stepping down.
        
             | Supermancho wrote:
             | I heard he has a knack for prediction. Pair that with
             | advantageous events (or prior to) and 7mo ahead is the
             | result of a calculation.
        
               | unsnap_biceps wrote:
               | Sure, but at his age, heath issues spiral out of control
               | very very very fast. I fully expect that he doesn't have
               | a specific health concern right now and is planning ahead
               | because if he did have a specific health issue, I don't
               | expect that he would be able to plan 7 months ahead.
        
               | 0cf8612b2e1e wrote:
               | I suspect there has been succession a plan in place for
               | at least 20 years.
        
             | nabla9 wrote:
             | He probably took a health insurance and plans to cash in.
        
             | paulpauper wrote:
             | Stepping down ASAP would look worse than doing it 7 months
             | out
        
               | unsnap_biceps wrote:
               | Sure, but if there is a health concern, announcing a date
               | and then passing away before then is even worse then just
               | stepping down asap.
        
           | bayarearefugee wrote:
           | There's video of his announcement.
           | 
           | https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/03/warren-buffett-to-ask-
           | board-...
           | 
           | On one hand, he doesn't sound that great (in terms of subtle
           | overall health markers in his voice) when he talks.
           | 
           | On the other hand, he's 94 and most people (especially men)
           | don't make it into their 90s, so...
        
             | paulpauper wrote:
             | comparing the video to 2024, he sounded similar to last
             | year. not much of a difference
        
         | andsoitis wrote:
         | You want an orderly succession.
        
         | bloodyplonker22 wrote:
         | The difference is that Charlie didn't have his partner die.
        
       | lokimedes wrote:
       | And now after decades of stock buybacks, quantitative easing and
       | other mad financial manipulation, comes again the time for value
       | investors, and he leaves?! :)
        
         | Supermancho wrote:
         | What are you trying to say? It's not clear at all.
        
           | lokimedes wrote:
           | Just finding it mildly amusing to consider that in the messed
           | up economics we are entering with Trump, there may be a shift
           | to value investing, something I have always associated with
           | Buffett.
        
           | lucianbr wrote:
           | Pretty clear and funny to me. Not sure how to explain it
           | without just repeating the same thing.
           | 
           | It seems the markets will soon go through a period when
           | Buffet's approach will work best, which makes it an
           | inoportune moment for him to retire. Of course at his age
           | retirement is expected, maybe even inevitable - that's the
           | joke.
        
             | HarHarVeryFunny wrote:
             | I don't know how much of Bershire's funds Buffet personally
             | manages nowadays - he's had other people managing a lot of
             | it for years.
        
             | Supermancho wrote:
             | > And now after decades of stock buybacks, quantitative
             | easing and other mad financial manipulation, comes again
             | the time for value investors
             | 
             | These are things that have happened in the past. Mad
             | financial manipulations? Like what is "mad"? "Comes again
             | the time." How is it different than any other day?
             | 
             | > Pretty clear and funny to me.
             | 
             | You're making up your own interpretation of nonsense then
             | calling it obvious. Good luck with that.
        
             | epolanski wrote:
             | > It seems the markets will soon go through a period when
             | Buffet's approach will work best
             | 
             | Why would you think so?
             | 
             | US equity is still at insanely high valuations, markets are
             | full of denials about it and about the future tariff
             | related uncertainty.
        
         | AustinDev wrote:
         | They have like half a trillion in cash on the balance sheet.
         | I'm sure they're going to scoop up a bunch of value in the
         | coming years. Whoever takes over has a hell of a war chest to
         | work with.
        
       | riffraff wrote:
       | He's 94 years old, it's honestly impressive he was still there.
       | Still, end of an era.
        
         | heresie-dabord wrote:
         | > Still, end of an era.
         | 
         | That is an enormous understatement. At 94, Buffet has witnessed
         | history and has represented a vision of betterment, a just
         | society, and sound economic stewardship. These things were not
         | and are not hallucinations.
         | 
         | But for many, it seems, the lessons about co-operation, stable
         | economic growth. the sane application of democratic principles,
         | and the rule of law must be learned again.
         | 
         | It's the end of an era bona fides and respect for truth and
         | accountability as the structural integrity of democratic
         | society.
        
           | kinnth wrote:
           | Buffet reminded me a lot of Angela Merkel.
           | 
           | They stood clearly and simply for good moral judgment, fair
           | systems and looked at the bigger picture to carry most people
           | forward. They also based all their decision in facts, truth
           | and science. They learn't their trades (economics & politics)
           | over time and weren't afraid to adapt as times changed.
           | 
           | Their slow and steady presence did more for equality and
           | fairness than many others. We will need to find these values
           | again after the current times have played out.
        
             | fifilura wrote:
             | It is ok, I understand how you are thinking.
             | 
             | But unfortunately I think Merkels legacy will be "Wandel
             | durch handel".
             | 
             | Trying to pacify Russia and Putin through increasing trade.
             | Did not work.
        
               | jnwatson wrote:
               | Don't forget the climate-change-decision-accelerating
               | decision to mothball all their nuclear reactors. This was
               | a monumentally poor strategic decision from multiple
               | angles.
        
               | impossiblefork wrote:
               | It doesn't have to have been totally wrong always, but
               | it's certainly been wrong at least since the invasion of
               | Georgia in 2008.
        
             | thi2 wrote:
             | That has to be about a different Angela Merkel, the one I
             | know had one priority: preserving status quo.
        
               | FirmwareBurner wrote:
               | Which recent German politician in power wasn't about
               | preserving the status quo? The entire country and culture
               | is all about the status quo.
        
               | DonHopkins wrote:
               | Well when the alternative is right wing fascism, I'll
               | take the status quo thank you.
        
               | netsharc wrote:
               | Feh, Merkel created conditions for the rise of right wing
               | fascism... IMO.
               | 
               | She and her finance minister championed austerity uber
               | alles, squeezing the middle and lower class across the
               | EU, and then she said refugees were welcome. I agree with
               | the idea of helping people fleeing bombs and bullets, but
               | after decades of saying there's money, we need to watch
               | our budgets, suddenly there's money? Nooo fucking wonder
               | the populist right managed to grasp on to the
               | disillusionment of the lower/middle class.
        
             | bergheim wrote:
             | > They also based all their decision in facts, truth and
             | science
             | 
             | What? She shut down nuclear power plants to ramp up coal
             | and Russian dependence.
             | 
             | Idolizing people is rarely helpful.
        
               | JimmyBiscuit wrote:
               | She shut down nuclear power because of extreme pressure
               | from the population. Tens of thousands protested around
               | her office. Nuclear is complicated (and mostly fear
               | driven) in Germany. Oddly enough the first exit was done
               | under Schroder who is a russian asset. Makes you think.
        
               | codethief wrote:
               | > Oddly enough the first exit was done under Schroder who
               | is a russian asset. Makes you think.
               | 
               | Oddly enough? Schroder was in a coalition with the green
               | party that had emerged from the anti-nuclear movement two
               | decades before.
        
               | AdamJacobMuller wrote:
               | > Tens of thousands protested around her office
               | 
               | Germany has a population of 84 million people. 10,000
               | should not be able to dictate a policy decision of this
               | magnitude, regardless of how loud they are.
               | 
               | > Nuclear is complicated (and mostly fear driven)
               | 
               | The politics of nuclear are complicated, the science
               | (more engineering) of nuclear are complicated, the
               | imperative is clear and simple. You are correct that it's
               | mostly fear driven, but stoked by "green" advocacy
               | organizations and/or manipulated by people with a stake
               | in the continued use of fossil fuels (and largely the
               | latter funding the former).
               | 
               | True leadership would stand up to both of these
               | pressures, making people understand that the voice of
               | 10,000 (or even 100,000) people can not dictate policy
               | alone and educating people on the reality of nuclear
               | power, while also fixing some of the real issues with
               | nuclear power (an aging power plant fleet and an
               | inability economically build better replacements).
               | 
               | Merkel totally flopped on energy policy.
        
               | neom wrote:
               | We've been running nuclear here in Canada for over 80
               | years now. CANDU is very safe and not very complicated.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANDU_reactor
        
               | cjpearson wrote:
               | The protestors were not a very vocal minority, but
               | representative of the majority opinion. At the time well
               | over 80% of Germans wanted an end to nuclear power.
               | (Although now following the Ukraine invasion and rising
               | energy costs the opposition has significantly softened.)
               | 
               | In a democratic system it is simply difficult to maintain
               | such extremely unpopular positions. Governments which do
               | so don't last long. Merkel flip-flopped and maintained
               | her Chancellorship.
        
               | netsharc wrote:
               | She finally agreed to shut down nuclear because Fukushima
               | happened just a few days before the state elections of
               | Baden-Wurttemberg. She was afraid of a rout so she agreed
               | to do the above, and her party lost to the Greens anyway.
        
             | neom wrote:
             | Measured governance. I feel the same, although I'm sure the
             | Europeans and Germans not at all, but they also talked
             | Angela out of nuclear, so one might argue the Germans are a
             | bit too measured compared to their Chancellor.
        
             | huijzer wrote:
             | > They stood clearly and simply for good moral judgment
             | 
             | Merkel has severely underestimated Putin. She played a role
             | in the continuous betting on Russian oil. Merkel has called
             | the internet "neuland" and wasn't her government also the
             | one starting with hydrogen subsidies. I donno about you but
             | to this day I only hear lots of talk about hydrogen but
             | near zero results. So all the wrong bets.
             | 
             | Also I don't know whether you noticed but Germany is
             | expected to be in a recession for three years in a row now.
             | 
             | About equity and fairness okay I guess you are right.
             | Everybody in Germany will be poor if things continue like
             | this.
        
             | ponector wrote:
             | Silent approval of Putin's invasions to Georgia and Ukraine
             | doesn't look like "good moral judgment, fair systems"
        
             | FiniteField wrote:
             | "The current times" are a direct result of decisions like
             | that of Merkel to throw open the borders of Germany to a
             | million unchecked foreign men. If there's one reason that
             | the AfD is the largest party in Germany today, it's because
             | of that decision Merkel made a whole decade ago. How was
             | that "based in facts, truth and science", or "slow and
             | steady"?
        
         | paulpauper wrote:
         | Munger was still going strong at 99, good genes both of them, i
         | guess
        
           | nly wrote:
           | And the best healthcare money can buy anywhere in the world.
        
             | KajMagnus wrote:
             | Doctors aren't that useful, unfortunately
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | Yeah, quality years at end of life are not solved problem
               | even for the rich. Being this active must be genetic.
        
               | xboxnolifes wrote:
               | And no amount of good doctors can make you change your
               | lifestyle. At the end of the day, a ton of doctor advise
               | is ways to change your lifestyle, and that takes personal
               | effort.
        
           | KajMagnus wrote:
           | Having friends also contributes to living longer (Buffet and
           | Charlie)
        
         | HeavyStorm wrote:
         | I read the title and thought, about time, he's probably
         | 80-something.
         | 
         | I really hope I could be productive at 90. Heck, I hope I'm
         | productive at 70.
        
           | sbankowi wrote:
           | Heck, I hope I'm productive on Monday!
        
             | mckirk wrote:
             | Generally I'm really glad that HN has resisted the social
             | media brain-rot trends, but sometimes the ability to react
             | to a comment with a heart emoji would be cool.
        
         | jasonpeacock wrote:
         | Chocolate chips[1] were invented in 1937, when Buffet was 6yrs
         | old, and commercialized as we know them today in 1941 when
         | Buffet was 10.
         | 
         | He's literally older than chocolate chips!
         | 
         | [1] https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chocolate_chip
        
       | 8f2ab37a-ed6c wrote:
       | I always run across great quotes from Warren Buffett, but I never
       | spent any time actually reading any of his writings or anything
       | written about him. What's the best place to start to absorb some
       | of his wisdom? Anything that's applicable to startups, tech, and
       | life in general, beyond being the CEO of a holding company?
        
         | xNeil wrote:
         | Not by Buffett, but you'll love Poor Charlie's Alamanack, by
         | Charlie Munger, his lifelong business partner.
         | 
         | https://www.stripe.press/poor-charlies-almanack/cover
        
           | cromulent wrote:
           | Buffet said of Munger:
           | 
           | > "In terms of managing money, there wasn't anybody better in
           | the world to talk to for many, many decades than Charlie."
           | 
           | Buffet gets all the press, but he acknowledges Munger as a
           | huge part, if you listen.
        
             | nabla9 wrote:
             | Munger really gave Buffet wings. They did it together.
        
           | iamsanteri wrote:
           | For Buffett I recommend Essays of Warren Buffett. Regarding
           | Munger's Almanack, I wrote a nice summary just before his
           | death:
           | 
           | "A real estate investment of $24 by the Dutch to buy the
           | island of Manhattan would today be roughly equivalent to $3
           | trillion. Across 378 years, that's about a seven percent
           | annual compound rate of return..."
           | 
           | https://www.lostbookofsales.com/notes/poor-charlies-
           | almanack...
        
           | KajMagnus wrote:
           | It's a great book (I think), reading it now. It's the only
           | book this far that I've brought with me to the gym (because I
           | wanted to continue reading it, in between the exercises)
        
         | tchalla wrote:
         | Start here - The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville
         | 
         | https://business.columbia.edu/cgi-finance/chazen-global-insi...
        
           | TheAlchemist wrote:
           | I still remember the feeling I got when I first read the
           | first paragraph and especially this phrase:
           | 
           | "For one thing, if (a) you had taken 225 million orangutans
           | distributed roughly as the U.S. population is; if (b) 215
           | winners were left after 20 days; and if (c) you found that 40
           | came from a particular zoo in Omaha, you would be pretty sure
           | you were on to something."
           | 
           | Compared to anything in finance I've read up until then, it
           | felt like I just found the right guy.
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | His shareholder letters are on the Berkshire website and are
         | excellent.
        
         | edouard-harris wrote:
         | Somewhat dated (10 years old), but a classic and probably the
         | best single place to get started:
         | 
         | https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Warren-Buffett-Lessons-Corpora...
        
         | andsoitis wrote:
         | Beside the various books he's written, there's also his writing
         | on Berkshire Hathaways' website:
         | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/
        
           | tim333 wrote:
           | He didn't write a book. Maybe he will now he has more time.
        
             | andsoitis wrote:
             | You're right. I stand corrected.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | Not to diminish any of his accomplishments, but read his quotes
         | and story as being a product of his time. He famously missed
         | out on a lot of solid tech investments because of his
         | background as a value investor. Value investing doesn't exist
         | the same way it did when Berkshire started making a name for
         | itself. Tech investing also isn't them same as 1997, 2004, or
         | 2010.
        
           | nabla9 wrote:
           | Berkshire has outperformed Nasdaq and SP500 from the IPO (May
           | 9, 1996), 10y, 5y, 1y time periods and he has now $340B in
           | cash.
           | 
           | All this with low risk holding lots of cash. He has not
           | missed anything.
        
             | dehrmann wrote:
             | Just because it beat indexes doesn't mean it couldn't have
             | done better.
             | 
             | From 2017:
             | 
             | https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren-buffett-admits-he-
             | mad...
        
               | nabla9 wrote:
               | "Not to diminish the accomplishments of Magnus Carlsen ,
               | but he has lost many games."
               | 
               | "Not to diminish the accomplishments of the world's best
               | poker player, but he did lose many hands."
        
               | dehrmann wrote:
               | My point is that you have to put all of his wisdom and
               | stories in the context of what he's good at and the
               | environment he was in. He tried to apply his value
               | investing playbook to early Google, and it looked like a
               | bad investment. He later realized this (see my link), but
               | that gets talked about less than value investing in its
               | heyday. Aside: for debated reasons, value investing,
               | which used to outperform, has been in a slump for a long
               | time.
               | 
               | It's east to hear his story and think if you do the same
               | thing, you'd be successful. If you did the same thing in
               | 1970, you might be! And some of his wisdom is generally
               | applicable, but reading his story as a guide for
               | investing today isn't the right approach.
        
               | nabla9 wrote:
               | Think of the time horizon.
               | 
               | The current tech investing boom is just a blip just like
               | previous tech booms (Auto industry boom, aircraft boom,
               | personal computer boom).
        
               | TeaBrain wrote:
               | Someone probably said something similar in the 1960s when
               | Buffet avoided crowded Go-Go era investments in the 1960s
               | to his benefit.
        
           | readthenotes1 wrote:
           | It's not that he missed out on it, both Buffett and munger
           | said that they didn't really understand technology so they
           | didn't feel a reason to go there. They felt they better
           | understood insurance and railroads and candies and whatnot
           | and they made Bank doing it.
        
             | zhivota wrote:
             | I agree and I think furthermore no one has really
             | understood technology enough to have consistently made the
             | right moves, because tech stocks fundamentally were blazing
             | a new trail.
             | 
             | Buffett invested in businesses that, relatively speaking,
             | were already well understood, if not widely by everyone,
             | the point being that you could look at the balances and
             | financial statements of an insurance company and derive an
             | investment plan that was based on basically nothing new.
             | Google, and tech in general, were not like that.
             | 
             | I think now some tech stocks do look like that. Microsoft,
             | Oracle, Salesforce, all have business models that are much
             | more well understood at this point than 30 years ago.
             | 
             | Even though Google has been wildly successful, I do see
             | them as riskier since they derive so much of their income
             | from web search ads, which feels like a precarious position
             | compared to selling office productivity suites, databases,
             | and CRMs to enterprises (I know Google does some of this
             | but it's not where they make the bulk of their income).
        
           | epolanski wrote:
           | You are, and you're doing so naively, because one of the
           | reasons Buffett has been successful is that he stuck to
           | things that were in his circle of competence.
        
         | DontchaKnowit wrote:
         | Honestly his ex wifes book about how he reads 10k reports is
         | really good. Cant remember the name.
        
           | TheAlchemist wrote:
           | Never heard about it, and can't find a trace on google. If
           | you remember, please post here.
        
         | iancmceachern wrote:
         | Watch YouTube videos of old Berkshire meetings, especially ones
         | with Charlie.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | "The Intelligent Investor", by Benjamin Graham. He was
         | Buffett's mentor, and contributed to that book. It's straight
         | value investing. Never buy a startup.
         | 
         | There are biographies of Buffett. I read one of them years ago.
         | It goes into great detail about the early deals that got him
         | started. I never did quite understand the deal that moved him
         | into the big leagues, the takeover of GEICO insurance.
        
       | ivape wrote:
       | It's kind of a damn shame a man like that was not tapped for any
       | major economic position in the government. I don't know how men
       | like Peter Navarro got so far. In a sense, all the money in the
       | world didn't actually fulfill his true potential, and I say that
       | with the utmost respect.
        
         | xNeil wrote:
         | Not convinced working for government is the best use of your
         | potential, though considering he owns 5% of all US Treasury
         | Bills, I wouldn't say his impact is any less than being a
         | government employee.
        
           | curiousgal wrote:
           | > best use
           | 
           | Well I don't think him sitting on billions of dollars at 94
           | is better from a societal perspective.
        
             | dghlsakjg wrote:
             | That money has already been committed to charitable use for
             | the most part, or already donated. He is essentially
             | managing billions of dollars on behalf of charitable
             | causes. Seems like a pretty good use of his money
             | management skills.
             | 
             | Besides all that he has advocated for that money to be
             | taxed away from him for decades.
             | 
             | He pretty famously lives below his means in a normal
             | suburban house and drives around in a car that most
             | software engineers could afford (Cadillac sedan).
             | 
             | From a societal perspective, I'm not sure you could ask for
             | much more from any one man.
        
             | mulmen wrote:
             | "Sitting on"? He famously invests in companies that do
             | things.
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | The money isn't "out of circulation". That's not how money
             | works.
             | 
             | Even as T-bills they're doing something.
        
         | wood_spirit wrote:
         | > I don't know how men like Peter Navarro got so far.
         | 
         | It's a weird story. IIRC in the run for president before trumps
         | first term he sent Jared Kushner to find out about trade.
         | Kushner browsed Amazon, looking at book covers, and picked
         | Navarro's book because he liked the title... and the rest is
         | history
        
           | atombender wrote:
           | Trump should have hired Ron Vara [1], seems like a much more
           | competent guy.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.instagram.com/reel/DINJlumRqed/
        
           | ivape wrote:
           | You've got to be kidding ...
           | 
           | Oh god, you're not:
           | 
           | https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/328969-report-
           | ku...
           | 
           | I feel impotent, what is there to be done?
        
         | snowwrestler wrote:
         | He has been asked many times but was not interested.
        
         | johntarter wrote:
         | Warren Buffet has warned about the trade deficit problem since
         | 2003 and has proposed an alternate solution called "import
         | certificates" where exporters could earn them and sell them to
         | the importers who must use them. This would result in an even
         | trade balance. He admitted it's essentially a tariff by another
         | name but a more fair and systematic one. In other words, he
         | aligns with Peter Navarro in the problem but differs in the
         | solution.
        
       | Apocryphon wrote:
       | The Mahathir bin Mohamad of the financial world
        
       | tchalla wrote:
       | Buffet on Tariffs
       | 
       | > "It's a big mistake, in my view, when you have seven and a half
       | billion people that don't like you very well, and you got 300
       | million that are crowing in some way about how well they've done
       | - I don't think it's right, and I don't think it's wise," Buffett
       | said. "The United States won. I mean, we have become an
       | incredibly important country, starting from nothing 250 years
       | ago. There's not been anything like it."
        
         | disambiguation wrote:
         | Also buffet on tariffs (2003)
         | 
         | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf
         | 
         | Though he makes the distinction between "import certificates"
         | and Trump's version of tariffs.
        
           | throw0101b wrote:
           | Contra:
           | 
           | > _A common response I've seen to this is Warren Buffett
           | repeatedly expressing concern about the trade deficit.
           | Buffett's main concern has always been that we're sending
           | pieces of paper abroad that give foreigners claims on US
           | assets. And this is true, but I'd argue it's been a massive
           | net positive on the whole. First, as a percentage of total
           | ownership, foreign ownership of US securities is actually
           | flat since 2008. So despite 20 years of a persistent current
           | account deficit there hasn't been a huge change in foreign
           | ownership as a percentage of the total. But the current
           | account deficit also reflects the way many firms in the USA
           | outsource their comparative advantage. And that accrues to US
           | firms (and households) as increases in net worth. This is a
           | big reason why corporate profit margins have expanded so much
           | in the last 30 years. Global competition has made US firms
           | more efficient and that's accrued to Americans as a huge gain
           | in net worth. So this isn't a situation where we're just
           | sending Dollars abroad for no good reason. We're doing it in
           | large part because that is investment in our businesses that
           | has added value to those very firms and their owners. Could
           | that all reverse? For sure. And weirdly, the thing that would
           | cause it to reverse is ultra protectionist measures thereby
           | reducing demand for US Dollar assets and reducing investment
           | in US firms._
           | 
           | * https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/04/24/three-things-you-
           | gues...
        
         | next_xibalba wrote:
         | Buffett actually does share a fear of trade deficits, though.
         | His proposed solution, as an alternative to tariffs, were
         | "import certificates"-essentially a marketable credit required
         | to import goods. These would be earned via exports by
         | exporters, be freely priced and traded, and would essentially
         | bind import levels to export levels.
        
           | nabla9 wrote:
           | It's really a non-problem.
           | 
           | Net capital inflows into the U.S. = U.S. trade deficit. The
           | balance of payments is simply: Sales of assets - Purchases of
           | assets = Purchases of goods - Sales of goods
           | 
           | If you balance the trade, it means foreigners must stop
           | investing into the US.
        
             | chrisco255 wrote:
             | If you balance the trade, it means reduced foreign
             | ownership of U.S. assets, yes, which means ownership of
             | U.S. assets by domestic citizens will increase. One of the
             | primary problems with an unbalanced trade deficit is that
             | your own inhabitants are left with less wealth over time,
             | as assets are sold off to fund consumption.
        
               | ChadNauseam wrote:
               | That's zero-sum thinking. Increases demand for US assets
               | can make americans wealthier in many ways (e.g. providing
               | more capital to american businesses).
        
               | bnjms wrote:
               | Some goods are zero sum. Land is zero sum. Ownership of
               | land by non local entities is... idk seems bad
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | Why?
               | 
               | What's the issue, if me, an Italian, own land in Indiana
               | or North Cali?
        
               | chrisco255 wrote:
               | You, a single actor, probably wouldn't be a significant
               | factor. However, an international government or corporate
               | entity owning hundreds of thousands of acres and
               | exploiting resources on the land and routing them back to
               | their home country can be problematic. It places
               | additional strain on limited resources and the profits
               | are not spent in the local economy...just sent overseas.
               | Absentee ownership of non-productive real estate can also
               | drive up the costs of housing for citizens, making
               | homeownership more difficult and driving down wealth in
               | the middle class.
        
               | dragonwriter wrote:
               | > If you balance the trade, it means reduced foreign
               | ownership of U.S. assets, yes, which means ownership of
               | U.S. assets by domestic citizens will increase.
               | 
               | Proportionately, perhaps, but that doesn't mean by value
               | of assets owned. It just means the aggregate value of
               | assets in the US will be less.
        
               | monadINtop wrote:
               | >which means ownership of U.S. assets by domestic
               | citizens will increase
               | 
               | Which to be clear will be largely domestic oligarchs and
               | other whales since the vast majority of domestic citizens
               | in the US don't have enough capital to own any
               | significant amount of assets, US or otherwise.
        
               | chrisco255 wrote:
               | It applies across the spectrum, but to your point, at
               | least domestic billionaires pay domestic taxes and spend
               | money domestically.
               | 
               | Speaking to the middle class, home ownership
               | (traditionally one of the most reliable sources of wealth
               | for the middle class) would increase.
        
               | nabla9 wrote:
               | >U.S. assets by domestic citizens will increase.
               | 
               | You think zero sum like accountant or land owner.
               | 
               | They money coming is invested for opportunities. There
               | will be less opportunities for startups, less VC money.
               | Less affordable loans for corporations to expand and
               | invest.
        
               | epolanski wrote:
               | Why would it even be desirable to have less foreign
               | ownership of US assets?
               | 
               | Like what is the sound logic here?
               | 
               | As an Italian I would love more foreign ownership of
               | Italian businesses, that would not only bring capital but
               | more scrutiny.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | On one side it could mean that less money leaves. That is
               | no dividends are paid to outside the country. All profits
               | stay in.
               | 
               | On other hand the economy overall and stock market
               | especially have enormously increased due to outside
               | investments. As injection of money in later one directly
               | pushes valuations up. And the borrowing is only possible
               | when someone loans money...
        
               | chrisco255 wrote:
               | If the foreign entities are not aligned with your
               | country's values, what good is it? For example, Putin is
               | arguably one of the wealthiest individuals in the world.
               | Would you be bothered if he scooped up a controlling
               | share in Italy's defense contractors or machining
               | manufacturers?
        
             | johntarter wrote:
             | It was a problem to Warren Buffet and he used a parable in
             | the past to explain the issue:
             | 
             | A perpetuation of this transfer will lead to major trouble.
             | To understand why, take a wildly fanciful trip with me to
             | two isolated, side-by-side islands of equal size,
             | Squanderville and Thriftville. Land is the only capital
             | asset on these islands, and their communities are
             | primitive, needing only food and producing only food.
             | Working eight hours a day, in fact, each inhabitant can
             | produce enough food to sustain himself or herself. And for
             | a long time that's how things go along. On each island
             | everybody works the prescribed eight hours a day, which
             | means that each society is self-sufficient.
             | 
             | Eventually, though, the industrious citizens of Thriftville
             | decide to do some serious saving and investing, and they
             | start to work 16 hours a day. In this mode they continue to
             | live off the food they produce in eight hours of work but
             | begin exporting an equal amount to their one and only
             | trading outlet, Squanderville.
             | 
             | The citizens of Squanderville are ecstatic about this turn
             | of events, since they can now live their lives free from
             | toil but eat as well as ever. Oh, yes, there's a quid pro
             | quo-but to the Squanders, it seems harmless: All that the
             | Thrifts want in exchange for their food is Squanderbonds
             | (which are denominated, naturally, in Squanderbucks).
             | 
             | Over time Thriftville accumulates an enormous amount of
             | these bonds, which at their core represent claim checks on
             | the future output of Squanderville. A few pundits in
             | Squanderville smell trouble coming. They foresee that for
             | the Squanders both to eat and to pay off-or simply service-
             | the debt they're piling up will eventually require them to
             | work more than eight hours a day. But the residents of
             | Squanderville are in no mood to listen to such doomsaying.
             | Meanwhile, the citizens of Thriftville begin to get
             | nervous. Just how good, they ask, are the IOUs of a
             | shiftless island? So the Thrifts change strategy: Though
             | they continue to hold some bonds, they sell most of them to
             | Squanderville residents for Squanderbucks and use the
             | proceeds to buy Squanderville land. And eventually the
             | Thrifts own all of Squanderville.
             | 
             | At that point, the Squanders are forced to deal with an
             | ugly equation: They must now not only return to working
             | eight hours a day in order to eat-they have nothing left to
             | trade-but must also work additional hours to service their
             | debt and pay Thriftville rent on the land so imprudently
             | sold. In effect, Squanderville has been colonized by
             | purchase rather than conquest. It can be argued, of course,
             | that the present value of the future production that
             | Squanderville must forever ship to Thriftville only equates
             | to the production Thriftville initially gave up and that
             | therefore both have received a fair deal. But since one
             | generation of Squanders gets the free ride and future
             | generations pay in perpetuity for it, there are-in
             | economist talk-some pretty dramatic "intergenerational
             | inequities."
             | 
             | Source:
             | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf
        
               | nabla9 wrote:
               | The failure of this parable is the assuming that money
               | that comes in to Squanderville is spent on consumption.
               | 
               | In reality people in Thriftville invest money in
               | Squanderville and that money grows new sectors other than
               | manufacturing while the share of manufacturing as GDP
               | declines everywhere.
        
           | chrisco255 wrote:
           | Sounds like it would achieve a similar effect, but would be
           | far more complex to implement and yet would still have the
           | effect of being a tax on imports while not actually
           | generating any revenue for the federal government.
        
           | Keyframe wrote:
           | That sounds awful a lot like we had it back in the Yugoslavia
           | days. It wasn't exactly free market, as you might know.
           | Companies that exported stuff had credits attached to them
           | and with that quota they could then import goods. They
           | couldn't trade those credits. You then had absurd situations
           | like a company that sells agricultural stuff and has stores
           | for those was also selling, for example, commodore 64 in
           | their stores since that's what they imported.
        
         | ashoeafoot wrote:
         | Change in general, should always come gradually , that way the
         | inevitable consequences rear their head early. Its the bold
         | paintstrokes that topple the world on its side. Obamas biofuels
         | come to mind triggering the arab spring by raising bread
         | prices.
        
         | sillysaurusx wrote:
         | I'm a bit slow in this field. Could someone explain how this
         | quote relates to tariffs? I've re-read it three times now,
         | looking for the connection to a tax on imported goods, but I
         | just can't see it.
         | 
         | I _think_ it's saying that the US population is crowing about
         | how well we've done, and so we should be able to tax whatever
         | imports we want? But what an odd way to say that if so. How
         | well we've done seems completely unrelated to tariffs.
         | 
         | Then the quote caps off with some back-patting about how we've
         | only been around 250 years, and that our rise is unprecedented.
         | Again seemingly unrelated to tariffs.
        
           | terribleperson wrote:
           | Part of the justification for tarriffs is that America is
           | somehow being 'taken advantage' of by the rest of the world
           | and the tarriffs are the rest of the world finally paying
           | their fair share. The reality is that (until now) America has
           | had a uniquely privileged position in the world economy that
           | got America, in general, very beneficial trade deals.
           | 
           | He's commenting on the attitude driving the tariffs.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | Uniquely privileged position?
             | 
             | The only unique thing about America is free markets. Any
             | country can become highly successful by enacting free
             | markets. The only thing in the way is their disbelief that
             | they work.
             | 
             | There's a common thread across the world and history. The
             | more free market a country is, the more it prospers.
        
               | pyth0 wrote:
               | This is only true if you ignore the important material
               | and historical factors that go into the success of a
               | country. Like for example, the immense wealth of natural
               | resources and variation in climates that the US has. Or
               | how about escaping much of the devastation that Europe
               | faced in WW2 and benefiting immensely from helping them
               | rebuild. Or having (for the most part) incredibly safe
               | and stable relationships with neighbors to the north and
               | south. Free markets have certainly contributed to
               | success, but to say it's the only unique thing about
               | America is just wrong.
        
               | terribleperson wrote:
               | I would say that the dollar being the global reserve
               | currency is a unique privilege, yes.
        
               | TeaBrain wrote:
               | >The only unique thing about America is free markets
               | 
               | This is less unique than the dollar being the dominant
               | reserve currency and dominant currency for settling
               | international trade.
        
               | ajross wrote:
               | > Any country can become highly successful by enacting
               | free markets.
               | 
               | And the existence proof for that assertion is which
               | country, exactly? Lots of nations lack regulation of some
               | form or another, many of them are "freer" than the US.
               | The US isn't entirely "free" of trade barriers either
               | (c.f. tariffpocalype).
               | 
               | Basically this sounds like a no-true-scotsman in the
               | making. No, it's not that simple.
        
               | yodsanklai wrote:
               | > The only unique thing about America is free markets
               | 
               | Is that unique to America? I'm in EU, I thought we had
               | free markets too.
               | 
               | > The more free market a country is, the more it
               | prospers.
               | 
               | Some countries, including the US, reached prosperity by
               | protecting their markets.
        
               | yupitsme123 wrote:
               | They created one kind of prosperity early on by
               | protecting their markets and letting industries develop.
               | Many other countries have done the same thing.
               | 
               | The unique thing was that they then created another, less
               | broadly shared, kind of prosperity by eliminating those
               | protections and offshoring those industries, and focusing
               | instead on dollar diplomacy.
        
       | behnamoh wrote:
       | All that money and he's still a mortal just like the rest of us.
       | I wonder if mega billionaires like him have done private research
       | on life longevity, cryosleep, mind-upload, etc. It's the only
       | useful thing they can do with that much money that directly
       | benefits them. Anything else (legacy, influence, children, etc.)
       | doesn't benefit them when they're gone.
        
         | locallost wrote:
         | There are things I don't like about him, and the way he is
         | idolized by people that want to accumulate money. But I will
         | say you can't really throw that "all that money and he's still
         | mortal" thing at him because in reality he lived really below
         | his means. So the money part is interesting, why did he try to
         | get so much if he didn't really need it? I think (without
         | really knowing anything about him), that he wanted money like
         | everyone else to be independent, but at one point it turned
         | into a game to see how much he can win.
        
           | DontchaKnowit wrote:
           | Hes literally like, autistic or something. If you've ever
           | watched the documentary on him he has a got a weird way about
           | him. Hes got an obsessive knack for numbers and just got into
           | the finance game where literally your job is to make as much
           | money as possible. Its your fiduciary obligation. The rest os
           | history.
        
         | deadbabe wrote:
         | With all the billionaires we've had, the fact that no one is
         | living unnaturally long or in some kind of cryosleep or AI
         | simulation probably means one thing: It's simply not possible,
         | and if it is, all the money in the world won't get you there.
        
       | andrewl wrote:
       | Buffett worked, at least informally, with the Obama
       | administration on some financial policy issues. And he is a
       | proponent of greater taxes on the very rich. Here's one short
       | video (2:46) in which he talks about it:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJzTsTU1xL8
        
         | photochemsyn wrote:
         | If the US government really wanted to bring back industrial
         | manufacturing, tax policy is one obvious route - eg a 2/3 tax
         | on billionaire and corporate wealth, such as on the huge pile
         | of cash Buffet-Berkshire is sitting on, but then offer a way
         | out - invest that cash in domestic manufacturing and R & D and
         | it won't be taxed.
         | 
         | This could motivate the private sector to go back to the Bell
         | Labs model, too.
        
           | maxilevi wrote:
           | As if the government could do better capital allocation in
           | the economy than buffett
        
             | Someone wrote:
             | Why couldn't they, for the citizens of the USA? Buffett
             | likely would not allocate it to optimize the outcome for US
             | citizens.
        
             | andrewl wrote:
             | _As if the government could do better capital allocation in
             | the economy than buffett_
             | 
             | That seems to be what Buffett is suggesting.
        
           | 33MHz-i486 wrote:
           | that doesnt really work if they have to compete on price with
           | foreign producers that have lower labor costs, looser
           | environmental regulations, deeper supply chains and better
           | process knowledge. might as well eat the tax (waiting for
           | monopolistic opportunities) or light the money on fire
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | Billionaires get that way by investing in companies. You
           | don't have to force them into it.
        
       | aliljet wrote:
       | How much of Berkshire actually relied on Buffet toward this
       | announcement? I'm increasingly suspect of 90+ or 80+ adults
       | operating the machinery of massive entities. Lots of examples of
       | this.
        
         | Frost1x wrote:
         | You're probably right, but I suspect he guided the general
         | direction of investments. I suspect they had very clever highly
         | qualified younger people dealing with most the day to day
         | decisions within those boundaries. I wouldn't discount the
         | contribution of either: both broad vision and narrow focus can
         | add a lot of value.
        
       | moomin wrote:
       | Someone at my firm went to a BH AGM. There's literally nothing
       | like it; it's like a Star Trek con, but for capitalism.
        
       | apexalpha wrote:
       | I'm not sure if it's originally his but a small talk by him about
       | getting a car made an impression on me and since watching it it's
       | become a good motivator to stay in shape.
       | 
       | This seems like a good moment to share it.
       | 
       | https://youtu.be/0fMRHpguTPM?si=75lLHzDynMCKhT9H
        
         | bamboozled wrote:
         | Real talk.
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.ph/zXRmj
        
       | Jhsto wrote:
       | Nice paper that was linked on Marginal Revolution:
       | http://docs.lhpedersen.com/BuffettsAlpha.pdf
        
       | khazhoux wrote:
       | For all I've heard about WB the last few decades, I couldn't tell
       | you a single thing he's done that's impacted my life, the
       | country, or the world. AFAIK he's a guy who makes a ton of money,
       | plays bridge with Bill Gates, gives advice, and has a fund that
       | made money for other people. Am I missing something?
        
         | zhivota wrote:
         | Buffett invested in boring industries like insurance. As
         | unexciting as it is, businesses like that basically are the
         | invisible infrastructure that makes society work smoothly.
         | 
         | Don't misunderstand flashy at the only way to be important.
        
           | khazhoux wrote:
           | I always view it as there being 2 kinds of investment:
           | 
           | * An investment that makes something possible that otherwise
           | wouldn't happen. Like the US investing in NASA
           | 
           | * Investment that is not consequential in the big scheme
           | except it makes people money.
           | 
           | Did his insurance investments keep some companies alive?
        
         | epolanski wrote:
         | He's not a politician, he doesn't have to.
         | 
         | Still, he's given dozens of billions in charity, given
         | important counsel to the government during the 80s and 2008
         | financial crisis.
         | 
         | During 2008 financial crisis he essentially saved Goldman and
         | General Electric both preventing further escape of capital and
         | an even worse situation for the US and potentially world
         | economy.
         | 
         | In any case, he's a capitalist who likes making money for
         | himself and his shareholders, he ain't a medical researcher or
         | your mayor.
        
       | havaloc wrote:
       | 94 years of age isn't too bad for someone who is a legendary Coke
       | drinker - five cans a day!
       | 
       | https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffe...
        
         | cyanydeez wrote:
         | I'm guessing the real problem is he's irrationally bullish on
         | the US stock market when there's no sane reason to be.
        
           | zahlman wrote:
           | I have been hearing about him being overall bearish for quite
           | some time (or at least, more cautious than average). I have
           | no idea what your sources might be. He does pick individual
           | stocks that he expects to do well, of course.
        
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