[HN Gopher] NYC home prices rise 10% in early 2025
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NYC home prices rise 10% in early 2025
Author : geox
Score : 67 points
Date : 2025-04-30 19:43 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (qns.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (qns.com)
| ChrisLTD wrote:
| You'd think NYC would reach a point where the market wouldn't
| bear any more price increases, but we're not there yet.
| tehlike wrote:
| and may never be.
| subpixel wrote:
| I thought that 20 years ago.
| bobthepanda wrote:
| NYC is unlike most housing markets in that for a lot of people,
| an international pied-a-terre in NYC is a sign of luxury and
| wealth, whereas no one really gives a crap if you have a second
| home in Seattle or Chicago or Boston.
|
| In the US the only other markets that operate like that are
| probably LA, Miami, maybe Honolulu.
| brailsafe wrote:
| Some bits of Colorado maybe?
| bobthepanda wrote:
| ski towns and places like Jackson Hole or Bozeman are
| unique in their own right but my understanding is that the
| demand there is mostly domestic-driven, amplified by a by-
| definition small housing market size.
|
| this doesn't affect big cities near nature nearly as much,
| like SLC or Denver.
| esseph wrote:
| "is a sign of luxury and wealth"
|
| I wish they'd just go to therapy instead
| psunavy03 wrote:
| . . . or they're rich enough to buy it, but they
| legitimately enjoy having it?
| euroderf wrote:
| Does New Jersey get no love ?
| bobthepanda wrote:
| Well no, because the entire point of using an NY address
| for clout is that it's in NY. NJ is definitively not NY for
| that purpose.
| mmooss wrote:
| For a lot of people, many more I would guess, there is no
| substitute for access to the city, culture, highly skilled
| dynamic people and organizations, etc.
| bombcar wrote:
| LA is a huge sprawling pile of homes of various prices.
| _Portions_ of LA have some cachet but a "second home" in LA
| could be this wonderful box:
|
| https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10955-S-Spring-St-Los-
| Ang...
| bobthepanda wrote:
| Nearly all metropolitan housing markets have bad areas; you
| can find a home for <200k in the South Bronx in NYC, for
| example.
| bombcar wrote:
| Yeah, my point was that I doubt a 10% increase in prices
| is being driven by people shopping zip codes.
|
| They want the actual _residence_ for whatever reason -
| more than they want the money.
| quickthrowman wrote:
| That's not even really a listing for a house, if I was
| interested in purchasing it I would take the land value and
| subtract the cost to demolish the building to get a fair
| value.
| FredPret wrote:
| According to the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, the USA
| alone has ~26m millionaires, and ~85m in the whole world.
|
| A lot of them want to live in NYC, and many times more than
| that want to visit.
| psunavy03 wrote:
| Millionaire money is not "second home in NYC" money these
| days.
| FredPret wrote:
| Enough for "rent an apartment in NYC" or "holiday in NYC"
| though
| flerchin wrote:
| I see home prices in Dallas are down by about 10% from peak.
| affinepplan wrote:
| unsustainable. and should be unconscionable. almost every
| pressing social problem can be traced back to the lack of housing
| supply (of course, some traces are looser than others)
| readthenotes1 wrote:
| If we are going for a reductivism, I'm going to take it all the
| way to pride, greed, and envy for the housing supply problem.
|
| (I could throw in lust, but that's last century's problem since
| various forms of birth control have negated its influence on
| housing demand)
| tshaddox wrote:
| > I'm going to take it all the way to pride, greed, and envy
| for the housing supply problem.
|
| Eh, I mean greed in other economic environments would cause
| people to build ever taller condos and apartment buildings to
| get more and more revenue.
| digbybk wrote:
| Changing human pride, greed and envy is hard. We know how to
| build housing. Or we used to.
| redwood wrote:
| Surely it's not so simple when New York City is building more
| housing supply that essentially any other American city (and
| has the best public transit system in the nation)
| fvrghl wrote:
| Source? NYC chronically under builds. It's ranked #35 in new
| housing construction:
| https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-
| investing-m...
| filoleg wrote:
| That link you shared is counting the number of units build
| per 1k existing units.
|
| Given how dense and populated NYC is (aka how many existing
| units there are), this metric isn't as meaningful. I
| believe the grandparent comment was talking about the raw
| number of units.
|
| Actually, go to the bottom of the page you shared and look
| at the section titled "Full results", then sort by "Total
| new housing units authorized". Sadly, you will need to do
| some quick manual work to parse the results, because it
| sorts numbers as strings rather than as actual numbers. But
| you can clearly see from there that NYC is #1 in terms of
| raw numbers of new housing units. And that's data from
| 2021, and afaik NYC only increased those numbers
| significantly in the past 4 years.
| asdff wrote:
| Raw numbers are meaningless when the rate of home
| building relative to job growth is what defines prices.
| mrDmrTmrJ wrote:
| "# of new homes / # of people"
|
| Is the only way to access if new home construction will
| affect prices. NYC is chronically underbidding.
| jimbokun wrote:
| NYC housing price increases have been unsustainable for several
| decades now.
| koolba wrote:
| This is not surprising at all. Gold is up 23% year to date priced
| in dollars. The euro is up about 10% year to date.
|
| A commensurate rise in real estate prices for arguably the most
| international city in the USA seems logical.
| janalsncm wrote:
| This is YoY Q1 for NYC. I'd be curious whether this holds for the
| first half of the year. Likely no. Bay Area prices are also
| expected to fall due to market volatility.
|
| I think the reason for this is pretty intuitive: more expensive
| (NYC/Bay Area) homes are purchased by high income people. And
| higher incomes are more affected by the stock market because high
| comps are composed of higher % stock. Someone making 200k might
| have 20% stock. Someone making 600k might have 50% stock. So a
| 10% drop in stock market costs the first person 2% of their comp
| and the second person 5% of their comp.
| hx8 wrote:
| 1. Stock is mostly a tech thing, which is a smaller percentage
| of NYC home buyers.
|
| 2. Real estate is a safe haven asset to put capital into. In
| uncertain markets some buyers will choose real estate over
| stock or other more risky investments. NYC real estate is a
| highly valued asset globally.
|
| 3. Real estate prices in prime global locations (London, Dubai,
| NYC) are determined more by global liquidity than by local
| wages.
|
| 4. Recessions often impact real estate prices less than stock
| prices. 2007 was an outlier because of how many defaults
| occurred in real estate. In general the mortgages today are
| much stronger than before.
|
| 5. If mortgage rates decrease then that would have upwards
| pressure on housing valuations.
|
| EDIT: Prices might come down, but I wouldn't expect fantastic
| bargains in NYC.
| master_crab wrote:
| I live and own in NYC. Stock is very much also a part of comp
| in finance as well (I'm not in it, but my wife is).
|
| I think you are spot on that prices will come down slightly
| (bonus pools will drop and that matters) but NYC real estate
| is rarely a bargain (or at least hasn't been since 1998).
| ardit33 wrote:
| 2009 - 2013 there were some good bargains in LIC and other
| areas. It will take a major recession to see some prices
| come down again to some reasonable level.
|
| Also, I wonder what the volume of transactions is. Because
| I see little inventory (I was looking into Brooklyn), and
| perhaps only new construction is selling, which means it
| skews prices higher (new construction is always more
| expensive).
| margorczynski wrote:
| The question is whenever it is more than inflation or less,
| averaged out since the last few years.
|
| Of course the other major effect seen worldwide is that people
| naturally concentrate in bigger cities and the countryside is
| dying out.
| r00fus wrote:
| Clearly the congestion pricing has amazing side effects as people
| now enjoy living in the city even more! /s
|
| On a serious note, the dollar lost about 10% of valuation, and
| GDP is contracting .3% in Q1.
|
| How this relates to property valuations isn't clear to me, but
| you can't say this is an apples to (big) apples comparison from
| the past year either.
| mupuff1234 wrote:
| I wonder how NYC would look like if it were managed by Singapore.
| nxm wrote:
| Fining people for spitting in public would not fly with social
| justice warriors in NYC.
| 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
| Fining? Don't they publicly cane?
|
| It seems to work! It's one of the cleanest places I've ever
| been to.
| GlibMonkeyDeath wrote:
| Real estate is local. Hard to conclude much from a single
| (desirable) area.
|
| Scroll down to the two tables at the bottom in this link to
| compare metro areas:
|
| https://www.realtor.com/research/march-2025-data/
|
| Sure, NYC metro is up 10%, but the median price ($780k) is still
| far from LA/Orange County (an eye-watering $1.2 M median) and San
| Jose/Sunnyvale at $1.4 M.
|
| Cleveland and Buffalo are at ~$250k median though...and they are
| technically "coastal" cities :)
| acchow wrote:
| What about $/sqft?
|
| Or $/acre of actual land?
| paulpauper wrote:
| I remember all the hype during Covid about falling home prices in
| metro areas like SF and NYC. Sure enough, as I suspected, it
| would prove temporary. Good news for those who held or bought,
| bad news for those looking to buy or need to rent.
| 01100011 wrote:
| I'm surprised they're rising given NYC is an 'international' city
| and wealthy foreigners seem to be leaving the US.
| mulmen wrote:
| This is median sale price so it could be driven by more
| expensive homes going on the market. It could be further
| exacerbated by overall sales declining. The wealthy bail out
| but everyone else is stuck, possibly upside down.
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