[HN Gopher] China's Clinical Trial Boom
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       China's Clinical Trial Boom
        
       Author : surprisetalk
       Score  : 84 points
       Date   : 2025-04-28 15:13 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.asimov.press)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.asimov.press)
        
       | Veedrac wrote:
       | So much of policy success comes down to doing obvious and
       | reasonable things, and most of the problem is how to incentivize
       | making those choices. For all China's flaws, they've figured this
       | out.
       | 
       | The best news here is that we might finally have a prosaic means
       | to escape our modern-era applied biotech stagnation, the same way
       | solar has appeared as a means to kick the feet out of traditional
       | energy sources. China is pretty new to being an R&D powerhouse,
       | but there are few more worthy causes.
        
         | narrator wrote:
         | The best outcome for the current China/U.S conflict is lots of
         | peaceful competition that forces each society to innovate.
        
           | kccqzy wrote:
           | Well during the Cold War with U.S./USSR conflict there was a
           | lot of competition that heralded many new technologies,
           | especially the dual use technologies that are good for both
           | civilian and military uses. I can imagine something happening
           | again if the U.S. had good leadership.
        
           | henry2023 wrote:
           | One of the parties involved already decided they don't event
           | wanna try to compete.
        
       | munchler wrote:
       | Meanwhile DOGE has cancelled more than $2 billion in federal
       | research grants. The US is shooting itself in the foot when it
       | should be competing at its best.
       | 
       | https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/nih-layoffs-budget-cuts-med...
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | The administration is also pressing for a 55% budget cut to the
         | National Science Foundation. The NSF is the primary funding
         | agency for engineering, physics, mathematics, chemistry and
         | computer science, among many other fields. If there's any doubt
         | about the seriousness of that situation, the director has
         | resigned over it. When some worried that US world leadership in
         | physical and life sciences may be surpassed in a generation, I
         | doubt anyone realized it might only take one year.
         | 
         | https://www.science.org/content/article/nsf-director-resign-...
        
         | saturdaysaint wrote:
         | Fascinating, then, how the head of DOGE has deep financial
         | interests in China. It's really not out of bounds to suggest
         | that his benefactors could've pulled some strings to kneecap
         | the US.
        
       | buyucu wrote:
       | China is having a boom in everything, not just in clinical
       | trials.
        
       | mmooss wrote:
       | Competing with it is a problem for conservativism. Some
       | admittedly loose reasoning:
       | 
       | Conservativism preserves currently widely accepted structures,
       | including ideas, by ridiculing and excluding new ones; social
       | structures, by outlawing / persecuting / demonizing new ones as a
       | threat to 'our traditions' and 'way of life'; businesses, through
       | tariffs and other anti-competitive measures - the House GOP is
       | considering a bill that reduces antitrust powers, for example;
       | existing economic sectors, by government picking winners and
       | funding them, limiting the economy to what is popular and that
       | the government already understands, such as manufacturing; etc.
       | 
       | Remember the land of the individual, of personal freedom, of
       | opportunity, that by its culture generated invention and
       | innovation that other places, without that culture, couldn't
       | match. What China, which is limited by central control, is doing
       | is copying well-established innovations - a biotech industry that
       | relies on clinical trials. Cutting edge stuff - decades ago.
       | 
       | What has made the US successful is creating, innovating, and
       | moving on to the next thing - things the government and most of
       | the public are far behind on. Look at the boom in the IT industry
       | over the last several decades (also no longer cutting edge except
       | in limited ways).
       | 
       | How can that happen now? The US has currently embraced relatively
       | extreme conservatism. People are afraid to offer challenging
       | ideas, and make their money from rent and from squeezing revenue
       | from old ideas (the stereotypical private equity model). They
       | can't go anywhere except by pleasing the oligarchy, now including
       | the government.
        
         | vladms wrote:
         | While agree with the whole analysis, I do wonder if
         | most/enough/all the ones supporting the regime change in US are
         | really conservatives ("embraced extreme conservatism") or they
         | just feel/are "left behind" hence they want any change. People
         | might not care who is in power (although they will suffer the
         | consequences), but if after 4 years they do not live better
         | they will say "let's change" - without really checking what is
         | the alternative...
         | 
         | In the end, alternation of rulers is probably on average
         | healthier than having the same guys over and over, but it is no
         | guarantee of success.
        
           | theLiminator wrote:
           | I personally think you're right. I think that in general a
           | lot of people want change for the sake of change if they're
           | unhappy (or often even if they're happy).
        
         | dlisboa wrote:
         | > Remember the land of the individual, of personal freedom, of
         | opportunity, that by its culture generated invention and
         | innovation that other places, without that culture, couldn't
         | match. What China, which is limited by central control, is
         | doing is copying well-established innovations
         | 
         | They don't seem to be limited by it at all and in many areas of
         | high tech innovation they are years ahead.
         | 
         | It's very hard to argue that their EV market, for instance, is
         | not an example of competitiveness driving innovation, which is
         | supposedly the hallmark of the free market.
        
       | 486sx33 wrote:
       | Aren't chinese trials how we got Covid ?
        
       | miki123211 wrote:
       | China's population is almost twice that of the US and EU
       | _combined_. If what you 're lacking for is patients, there's no
       | better place to go to.
       | 
       | Not only that, but we're also a lot more obsessed with patient
       | privacy. If somebody dies of cancer, there's no headline news
       | about them dying of a cancelled trial, even if that's actually
       | what happened. If patient data leaks, there's both a PR nightmare
       | and legal consequences for the institution. That drives
       | priorities.
       | 
       | I wouldn't be surprised if (some) Chinese researches are allowed
       | to SELECT * from citizens where disease = 'bone_cancer', whereas
       | researchers in the US have to send people to waiting rooms in
       | hopes of catching an eligible patient[1]. Unless this gets
       | changed, things won't get better.
       | 
       | We really need to start optimizing for min(deaths) instead of
       | min(bad_pr) or min(outrage). That's a genuinely hard problem in a
       | democratic society that respects the right to free speech (which,
       | to be clear, is a very good society to live in IMO). In a way,
       | it's a good problem to have.
       | 
       | [1] is a really good and accessible overview of why drug trials
       | are so hard and what could be done to make them easier, it's
       | worth checking out for anybody who wants to dive deeper into the
       | subject.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-
       | developm...
        
         | kulahan wrote:
         | I strongly disagree. There is no need for humans to be
         | immortal, and there is nothing wrong with tacking healthcare
         | research to public opinion at a bare minimum. If nothing else,
         | it helps ensure our medical care doesn't veer too far off
         | track.
        
       | holoduke wrote:
       | Just a walk in a random big city in China reveals how fast they
       | are progressing. The speed of things changing is ridiculous. In
       | almost every field they are getting better. And fast. Thats what
       | you can achieve when your country has 40 years of mass production
       | experience. The thing I hope most for is that China gets its own
       | high performing chips so that companies like Nvidia really get a
       | competitor.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2025-04-29 23:00 UTC)