[HN Gopher] A Postmortem of a Startup
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       A Postmortem of a Startup
        
       Author : jamierumbelow
       Score  : 111 points
       Date   : 2025-04-16 10:39 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (buildwithtract.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (buildwithtract.com)
        
       | andrewstuart wrote:
       | >> After raising a PS744,000 pre-seed round in April 2024, we
       | explored several business models
       | 
       | Capital after traction
        
         | dzonga wrote:
         | to those who cry about 'BS' like diversity etc ask yourself if
         | people without the same backgrounds, looks would have been able
         | to raise the same amount without a business model.
        
           | drdrek wrote:
           | The financial world is not equitable, its about results.
           | People from privileged backgrounds are more likely to raise
           | funds because their privilege makes them more likely to
           | succeed. If Being raised in a trailer park raised the odds of
           | a successful exit, you can be sure VC interns would be having
           | business meetings over deep fried Oreos way more often.
        
             | devmor wrote:
             | This presupposes that VC firms generally know what is more
             | likely to succeed, which is demonstrably wrong and the
             | entire reason that the "eggs" are put into so many
             | different baskets every season.
        
             | Urahandystar wrote:
             | Is that so or is it more likely to succeed because they can
             | raise funds? The way modern VC works is just a packaging
             | industry anyway. A VC will give money to a founder if he
             | thinks that he can raise more money in the future. They'll
             | get back what they put in from someone else before it
             | fails.
        
         | immibis wrote:
         | Good advice for investors, maybe - not for founders. Why would
         | a founder turn down money?
        
         | hnthrow90348765 wrote:
         | I don't know, getting paid to try things out sounds like a good
         | deal
        
       | pyb wrote:
       | A good question to ask before starting a startup is : "Do I see
       | myself working 10 years on this problem?". Looks like they ran
       | out of steam, rather than out of runway.
        
         | bad_username wrote:
         | Why 10 years? Is it not typical with startup founders to plan a
         | lucrative exit in a much shorter time frame?
        
           | pyb wrote:
           | No, where did you get this idea? Good startups do not think
           | this way.
        
           | flessner wrote:
           | > "Good startups usually take 10 years." - Sam Altman
           | 
           | It also aligns with other Y Combinator teachings, such as
           | targeting growing markets.
        
           | drdrek wrote:
           | 7-10 years is the realistic time frame for a moderately
           | successful exit, usually those that are "Bought" after 1-3
           | years are actually failed ventures with all or most of the
           | money going back to the investors to recoup their loses.
        
           | _fat_santa wrote:
           | It seems high at first but take a look at practically any
           | successful startup (Slack, Dropbox, Notion, etc) and they all
           | were around for 8-12 years before the founders cashed out.
        
       | AJRF wrote:
       | Thanks for writing this!
       | 
       | > Housing in Britain is expensive because getting planning
       | permission is difficult.
       | 
       | Isn't the real problem that supply is artificially constrained
       | because house prices and the economy are interlinked in a way in
       | a special way in the UK economy, such that the majority of home
       | owners don't want it changed (because more supply == downward
       | pricing pressure)
       | 
       | I think the only entity that could meaningfully change this
       | situation is government, and well it's easier to not upset your
       | donors.
       | 
       | Edit: To be fair to the author, they do mention artificial supply
       | constraints but I think my point stands - it is there by design,
       | too much inertia forcing it to be that way that won't be changed
       | by streamlining the bureaucratic elements
        
         | nemomarx wrote:
         | is that a very special thing? it seems like that in the US too
         | imo
        
         | Destiner wrote:
         | I think you're describing NIMBY, which is more of a US/SF thing
         | (but also is a case in Europe to some extent).
        
           | zihotki wrote:
           | NIMBY is an universal human concept, it's present everywhere
           | - Europe, Asia, South America. It may come in different
           | flavours but it's everywhere. People don't welcome changes to
           | the surrounding environment if it doesn't benefit them more
           | or less directly.
        
         | rob74 wrote:
         | I agree with you that that's probably the real problem, but not
         | that the situation is unique to Britain (although maybe it's
         | worse in Britain then elsewhere)...
        
         | kijin wrote:
         | It looks like this startup tried to hack the system by
         | streamlining one of the key mechanisms of artificial
         | constraint: the difficulty of getting permits.
         | 
         | Not a fundamental cure, of course, but it sounds like a
         | promising hack to squeeze out a few more building permits than
         | would otherwise have been issued.
        
         | lalaithion wrote:
         | One of the ways in which supply is artificially restricted is
         | that getting planning permission is difficult, so you're not
         | actually disagreeing with OP
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | Supply is somewhat constrained _and_ demand is also
         | artificially inflated (at national level it is 100% caused by
         | immigration, which is kept high by the successive governments).
         | 
         | Everyone relies on the property market going up. Beyond the
         | obvious reasons, another important one is that fixed rate
         | mortgages are not fixed for the life of the mortgage but only
         | for, usually, 2 to 5 years after which rates jump so everyone
         | is continuously worried about remortgaging.
        
           | spacebanana7 wrote:
           | It's curious to think about what house prices in the UK would
           | be like without immigration.
           | 
           | With a sustained negative fertility rate over the past few
           | decades, there could've feasibly been stable prices with no
           | new houses built at all.
        
             | mytailorisrich wrote:
             | The UK population would have started to decrease naturally
             | I believe around 2024 without immigration. It so happens
             | that the past few years have also seen record high
             | immigration and population growth...
             | 
             | Obviously the property market would be looking very
             | differently if population was decreasing. The whole economy
             | would.
        
               | immibis wrote:
               | Are you trying to paint a conspiracy here? It seems like
               | people just move around if they can, and one pressure
               | that drives people away is a lack of housing even worse
               | than other places' lack of housing. If there's less of a
               | lack of housing (relative to how bad it is everywhere
               | else), of course a place becomes more attractive to move
               | to.
        
               | spacebanana7 wrote:
               | > It so happens that the UK population would have started
               | to decrease naturally I believe around 2024 without
               | immigration
               | 
               | I think it would've been much earlier than that.
               | Cumulative net migration since 2000 is around 8.5 million
               | people. So the UK's current population would be radically
               | lower today without immigration.
               | 
               | https://www.statista.com/statistics/283287/net-migration-
               | fig... (annoyingly the per year figures need to be summed
               | up manually on both this and ONS reports)
        
               | LurkerAtTheGate wrote:
               | > Obviously the property market would be looking very
               | differently if population was decreasing. The whole
               | economy would.
               | 
               | Isn't this exactly what's happening in Japan? Govt
               | practically giving away mostly rural homes, as owners
               | died without heirs.
        
         | AJRF wrote:
         | NIMBYism is not unique, but the importance of house prices to
         | the UK economy is more severe than other countries.
         | 
         | - The UK has a very strong household wealth affect (consumption
         | is tied to house price growth / decline). The US and UK
         | borrowers borrow at a rate against household wealth not seen in
         | other nations (look at the chart on page 6 -
         | https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1117.pdf)
         | 
         | - It has had dramatic, sustained house price growth (400% real
         | price growth since 1980) vs US (200%), France (200%), Germany
         | (150%), Spain (Collapsed in 2008), Italy (Stagnant since 2008)
         | 
         | Some Links:
         | 
         | - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-
         | pa...
         | 
         | -
         | https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2016/12/31/Uni...
        
           | immibis wrote:
           | It's been said about the New Zealand economy that it mainly
           | consists of five people trading houses with each other for
           | ever bigger numbers.
        
         | rhubarbtree wrote:
         | I've posted this before, but I think the reason house prices
         | are expensive in the UK is that they are an asset. If the rich
         | can buy that asset and make a return, they will buy it. So
         | price equilibrium is where rents are at an absolute maximum
         | that can be born by tenants. As the price is determined the
         | potential yield, the price then rises as high as possible.
         | 
         | Building more houses won't change this situation until the
         | number of houses is greater than the number of tenants. At the
         | point where the number of tenants equals the housing supply,
         | the returns can still be made and prices will be bid up.
         | 
         | The problem is that is a competition between the rich buying as
         | an asset vs the rest of us buying as a home. The only solutions
         | are to reduce or eliminate the possible returns for the rich.
         | 
         | And as posted if the prices are then allowed to fall, the whole
         | economy is in danger, because it is based on the creation of
         | illusory wealth via asset inflation. Remortgaging a house that
         | has risen in price feeds money into the economy, despite no
         | wealth actually being created. And the entire economy is based
         | on this, because the rest of the economy has been destroyed by
         | neoliberalism.
        
           | matt-p wrote:
           | Yes, it's seriously unhealthy to have most of peoples
           | individual wealth tied up in the fact that there's
           | constrained property supply. If we just built a bunch more
           | housing (or removed net immigration) such that house prices
           | dropped say 25% (which would still be too little, actually),
           | people would be in negative equity, the banks would collapse,
           | government voted out, riots in the street. Yet it's whats
           | needed. If a late 20's professional in London is earning
           | PS40,000 after tax they're doing fairly well, yet a one bed
           | flat in zone 2 would still be 10X their annual income.
        
           | automatic6131 wrote:
           | >Building more houses won't change this situation until the
           | number of houses is greater than the number of tenants.
           | 
           | That's wrong though. Building more houses eases this
           | situation as it approaches the number of tenants. It gets
           | better! Better is good!
           | 
           | And the (perceived) appreciation of houses is also part of
           | the asset price, not just the rental income.
        
             | matt-p wrote:
             | arguably asset price is built on scarcity vs demand
             | everything else is all second order really.
        
         | pyb wrote:
         | It's true that the general public have a revealed preference
         | for the housing crisis to continue forever.
         | 
         | However in principle, as with many social issues, a motivated
         | actor such as a startup could still have a chance of fixing it.
        
       | monkeydust wrote:
       | Nice writeup, wish more startups who didn't succeed did this
       | though understand not easy thing to write so kudos.
       | 
       | One factor to success is timing, as someone who lives in UK
       | around London and is seeing (slowly) greenbelt getting developed
       | on perhaps the market might be moving towards you in the next 5
       | years.
        
         | ktallett wrote:
         | I would agree but I doubt it will become more of a thing, too
         | many seem to not be willing to accept failure or show
         | vunerability. This will always be rare in the start up market
         | as long as bravado and fake it till you make it is still a
         | thing, which it is.
        
       | morsecodist wrote:
       | This is interesting and they make some good observations but I
       | can't help but think the deck was stacked against them because
       | they are trying to come up with a technical/business solution to
       | what is fundamentally a political problem.
        
         | OccamsMirror wrote:
         | Yeah "founded to build software to fix Britain's housing
         | crisis."
         | 
         | There was literally zero hope for success.
        
         | mytailorisrich wrote:
         | Planning permission is partly a political issue, partly down to
         | expertise. You need experience, you need to know the rules, you
         | need to know the tricks, you need to know how to draft the
         | application. You need to know the game. Indeed this is not
         | something that is waiting for a technical solution.
         | 
         | It's great that they tried, though. But it strikes me that they
         | seem to be 20 something students (not meant disparagingly) with
         | no experience in this so perhaps lacked the insights and
         | understanding of the pain points. It does seem that VCs were
         | happy to fund based on an AI play, though ;)
        
       | dzonga wrote:
       | well written. I think your fatal mistake even though you folks
       | are smart was not understanding the complete value chain of your
       | business.
       | 
       | What I mean by understanding the economics of the value chain is
       | you've to understand how your customers make money, how their
       | customers make money & how their suppliers make money. From there
       | - you can workout your value proposition - are you saving your
       | customers money (means there's a cap on how much value you can
       | extract) or are you allowing your customers to make more money
       | (how much value you can extract is kinda uncapped - depending on
       | mechanics)
       | 
       | The other mistake - which you correctly kinda alluded to is not
       | understanding the incentives / dynamics of the industry. UK land
       | is tricky since most wealth / power is packed into UK land. hence
       | your part about emotion etc.
       | 
       | final mistake was equating success to raising money. Profit, if
       | not revenue growth is the only measure of success. Raising money
       | is not.
        
         | Etheryte wrote:
         | I don't think the last paragraph is correct, many unicorns
         | don't generate profit, yet are hugely successful by any other
         | metric. In many cases, generating profit is actually
         | undesirable for tax reasons.
        
           | frankdejonge wrote:
           | I believe that why they said "if not revenue growth". Those
           | successful, yet unprofitable companies do have revenue
           | growth, or market share growth.
        
           | mytailorisrich wrote:
           | Generating profit is highly desirable for any business.
           | 
           | For tax purpose you need to differentiate between "profit"
           | and "taxable profit". You can try to lower your taxable
           | profit to minimise tax, e.g. by re-investing your profits,
           | but ultimately it is better to turn a profit and to have to
           | pay some tax on it that to have an unprofitable business.
        
             | Etheryte wrote:
             | Not necessarily, this is a classic misunderstanding. As a
             | famous example, Uber did not make a profit for 14 years,
             | all the way up to 2023. For taxable profit it's even more
             | severe, they've built up a considerable backlog of losses,
             | so they'll pay very little in taxes for the foreseeable
             | future, even though they're now profitable.
        
               | mytailorisrich wrote:
               | Uber, like Amazon before, had the strategy to forego
               | profit in the short term to focus on growth. Ultimately
               | the goal is to be profitable because that's the point of
               | a business.
               | 
               | I think the misunderstanding is to confuse this for
               | "profit isn't desirable".
               | 
               | Sure you may try to minimise your taxable profit for tax
               | purposes but that means you are turning a profit, and
               | that may be impossible if you intend to pay dividends.
        
         | immibis wrote:
         | Success is when you get paid. If the product is unprofitable,
         | you lose out on a bunch more money, and your investors lose out
         | on most of their money, but _you_ did your job and got paid for
         | that, and as long as it was a reasonable rate, what 's the
         | failure on your part?
        
       | flessner wrote:
       | Very thoughtful writing and great to see someone cut it early
       | instead of continuing without a clear path.
       | 
       | > If I were to start a startup again, I'd take more time and be
       | more intentional in talking to potential customers before needing
       | to raise money.
       | 
       | From the outside, this pretty much hit the nail on the head.
        
       | philipallstar wrote:
       | > Housing in Britain is expensive because getting planning
       | permission is difficult.
       | 
       | It's true that planning departments are very expensive, don't do
       | much positively, and still seem to allow awful-looking things to
       | be built, and I'd probably happily do away with them, but the
       | fundamental driver is the incredible onboarding of people from
       | overseas for years that crushes the combination of the existing
       | population and the new people into a number of dwellings that
       | isn't that dissimilar to the previous year.
       | 
       | You can't take on a net number of people each year that would
       | require a new city the size of Nottingham to be built to
       | accommodate, and say "well, it's all the planning process'
       | fault."
        
         | froddd wrote:
         | Reducing the problem to 'people coming from overseas' is an
         | equally reductionist argument.
         | 
         | There are properties going unused, for very many reasons.
         | Second homes, holiday homes, etc. This also drives the price of
         | properties up. This is one of the inputs to the problem.
         | Planning permission laws is another input. The size and change
         | of size of the people needing housing is another input.
        
           | spacebanana7 wrote:
           | Is it not the dominant factor, at least in the short term?
           | It's much faster for 150k people to enter/leave the UK than
           | for a corresponding number of homes to built/demolished.
        
           | chippiewill wrote:
           | It does, but occupancy rates in the UK are already incredibly
           | high compared to countries like France.
           | 
           | There are simply too many people and not enough houses.
        
           | matt-p wrote:
           | reductionist in this case is not a bad thing. We need a major
           | change to fix this situation and doing some little tweaks
           | like increasing taxes on second homes or holiday homes does
           | not actually fix this (we already tax those specific cases,
           | with things like second home stamp duty or in some areas
           | second home council tax).
           | 
           | You have
           | 
           | A - Demand (immigration of 1 Million per year)
           | 
           | Or
           | 
           | B - Supply (building only 120,000 houses per year)
           | 
           | We MUST fix one or both of these sides of the equation.
           | Holiday homes aren't going to add up to a row of beans quite
           | frankly (and will have very negative effects on the tourism
           | industry, not so bad in London - but might be quite an impact
           | in cornwall for example).
        
       | margorczynski wrote:
       | I think the problem with startups (from a business perspective)
       | is that they're ego-driven and instead of looking at the business
       | reality in an objective fashion they mostly try to
       | "revolutionize" and "make a difference".
       | 
       | It isn't as sexy as doing the next Facebook or disrupting global
       | healthcare but just copying an existing archaic & expensive
       | product and doing it better can yield a great and stable
       | business. There's a plethora of software products (offline &
       | online) which cost way too much and work like crap - all you need
       | to do is do it better for a more reasonable price (where those
       | old companies have a big headcount and lots of mouths to feed
       | producing a hard price floor for them).
        
         | belinder wrote:
         | Now where to get a list of such companies and products to
         | decide what to build...
        
           | madmask wrote:
           | A decent 3d CAD and multiphysics FEM (cheap comsol) would be
           | a good start
        
             | ph4evers wrote:
             | Yes but the industry is so rooted and vendor locked that it
             | is extremely hard. People pay for Autodesk, Ansys, comsol
             | etc. because it is proven and engineers are trained to use
             | it. I would not be eager to use something new if I'm a
             | constructor or car manufacturer.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | Sure, a new startup will never get any market share in
               | large, stable businesses like those. They would have to
               | sell to other startups. New auto parts manufacturers pop
               | up all the time.
        
             | qazxcvbnmlp wrote:
             | Yep, decent 3d CAD is expensive. Competition in this space
             | would be fantastic
        
           | razakel wrote:
           | People constantly moan about their jobs, stupid processes,
           | broken software and tools... listen to them and build
           | something better.
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | The problem is that usually the moaners are not the loaners
             | - they're not the ones making the purchase decisions.
             | 
             | That's why you either get in via very small business (where
             | the owner is the buyer and user) or guerrilla (like Slack
             | et al).
        
               | Zambyte wrote:
               | The people moaning are the ones building things that can
               | be built better, not the ones that you should try to sell
               | to.
        
               | pavel_lishin wrote:
               | I'm a moaner, but I'm not building anything.
               | 
               | The software my school uses to communicate with parents
               | is fucking _awful_. Based on digging around their website
               | & linkedin, I suspect they have a team of offshore
               | developers - which is _fine_ - but my money is that they
               | don 't actually have a team, they're paying a company
               | that gives them supposedly-fungible engineer-hours
               | instead of an actual cohesive team that works on the
               | product and is proud of what they've made. They just eat
               | requirements and shit something approximating software.
               | 
               | But what am I going to do? Say I build a competitor,
               | solo, for cheap. (It can be done. The software doesn't do
               | much. The hardest thing would be ensuring the emails
               | actually get delivered.)
               | 
               | Now I get to play salesman. I have to sell it to my
               | school. Now I have to maintain it. Our school isn't rich;
               | a local school paid $130k for an unrelated
               | hardware+software solution, so I'm _at most_ going to get
               | that, and now I 'm on call 24/7, now I'm training the
               | teachers & administrators to use it, now I'm fielding
               | support emails, etc., etc.
               | 
               | Fuck it. I'll keep moaning.
        
             | dazh wrote:
             | Is this true? I've tried for months to get people to talk
             | to me about their problems and the most common answer I get
             | is "everything's... fine?".
        
           | bagpuss wrote:
           | there's neoseed.io that sends out emails weekly with "ideas
           | you can replicate"
        
           | mickael-kerjean wrote:
           | A dirty secret I recently learned about: look for public
           | contracts in your area, to find some of those, google
           | "contract register filetype:pdf".
           | 
           | Tons of crazy shit in there waiting to be disrupted. The
           | tricky part is to get the right financials to bid on the
           | interesting stuff, a good pathway there is to combine
           | multiple companies together and make a shared bid, reach out
           | to me if you're interested.
        
         | _fat_santa wrote:
         | > There's a plethora of software products (offline & online)
         | which cost way too much and work like crap - all you need to do
         | is do it better for a more reasonable price (where those old
         | companies have a big headcount and lots of mouths to feed
         | producing a hard price floor for them).
         | 
         | Our startup is basically doing this right now. Our thesis is
         | basically if we can make a product marginally better than our
         | massive competitors and be able to peel away just a sliver of
         | their customer base and get rich by virtue of having just 2
         | people and not 2000.
         | 
         | The business itself it not sexy at all but there are still
         | loads of interesting technical problems to solve from building
         | the app to marketing.
         | 
         | I would say our biggest strength right now is just having me
         | and my co-founder and no other folks to pay. When your burn
         | rate is your monthly digital ocean bill (which runs ~$50), you
         | can burn practically forever.
        
           | c_hastings wrote:
           | As long as you remember to pay yourselves too!
        
         | abanana wrote:
         | _> the problem with startups is that they 're ego-driven_
         | 
         | 100% agree. This looks like another case of nothing more than
         | arrogance - another case of somebody thinking they know it all,
         | can revolutionise an industry, even though their experience
         | within that industry is basically zero. Some of the choices of
         | wording in there, e.g. "potential for venture-backed
         | disruption", say it all.
         | 
         | It's not far from being that typical problem where someone,
         | without domain knowledge, has that common simplistic thought:
         | "why don't they just..." because it's always so obvious from
         | the outside! In this case, why don't they just buy our
         | software? Turns out it wasn't so obvious after all.
         | 
         | It feels like I've seen several stories on HN from people
         | seduced by the idea of being called an entrepreneur. (Or more
         | accurately, wanting to call _themselves_ an entrepreneur.)
         | Sometimes they keep failing, and just try a different industry
         | instead of taking stock and changing their approach to one that
         | starts with some real learning. Their blog posts make it clear
         | that creating a startup is /was their goal. No understanding
         | that to be successful, your business is supposed to be a means
         | to an end, not the end in itself - do enough research first to
         | create a viable solution to an actual problem. Though it seems
         | in venture capital funding, businesses tend to get funding
         | regardless... it's another world.
        
         | duped wrote:
         | > I don't want to make a little money every day, I want to make
         | a fuckton of money all at once
         | 
         | - Russ Hanneman
         | 
         | The thing that distinguishes a startup from a small business is
         | that the goal is growth - not being "great and stable." That
         | said, I've worked at startups for years and I would not agree
         | that _good_ startups are  "ego driven." They may seem that way
         | on the outside if you take LinkedIn posts at face value or only
         | read blog posts by people trying to hack it through publicity.
         | They often have more understanding of the business reality of
         | the markets they're trying to enter (or create) than anyone
         | else, the value they add is by saying "fuck that" to a
         | particular set of assumptions everyone else in the market might
         | live by.
         | 
         | Sometimes that set of assumptions can't be discarded, but if it
         | can and the startup is right, the backers stand to make a
         | fuckton of money all at once.
        
           | FloorEgg wrote:
           | Most startups fail, and most startups are run by founders
           | driven by ego and vision rather than by disciplined market
           | research or curiosity or understanding of the market.
           | 
           | The successful ones will either have gotten very lucky, or
           | know lots about the market as you say. In fact the first main
           | success hurdle is to understand the market well enough to
           | know it's actually a market, and that it can be monetized.
           | 
           | All that to say, I agree with both you and OP.
        
       | 4ndrewl wrote:
       | "address Britain's housing crisis"
       | 
       | It's a feature, not a bug.
        
         | matt-p wrote:
         | up to a certain point, yes, asset holders do benefit from
         | workers spending 50% of post tax income on housing. It is now
         | restricting GDP growth, however - so long term it's not in many
         | peoples interest.
        
       | djoldman wrote:
       | I looked for a source for this statement in the article:
       | 
       | > Granting permission takes the median hectare of land from
       | PS20,000 to PS2.4 million - a 139x uplift.
       | 
       | I couldn't find one. However, I did run into some interesting
       | viewpoints by a certain Paul Cheshire, Professor Emeritus of
       | Economic Geography at the London School of Economics... "one of
       | the world's pre-eminent housing economists"
       | 
       | He has this to say about "Green Belts":
       | 
       | > Britain imposed its first Green Belt in 1955 and now, if re-
       | zoned for building, farmland at the built edge of London has an
       | 800-fold mark-up. There was no secular trend in housing land
       | prices in Britain until the mid-1950s, but after Green Belts were
       | imposed real prices increased some 15-fold. More than houses
       | because you can substitute land out of house production. There is
       | a similar pattern in Canada, New Zealand or the West and East
       | coasts of the United States where policies restrict land supply.
       | 
       | https://www.newgeography.com/content/006358-lse-economist-pa...
        
         | matt-p wrote:
         | I have not researched this but someone I know at one of the big
         | house-builders pegged the cost of building a 3 bed at around
         | PS35-40,000, so in the south east land with PP is 10X more
         | valuable than what's sat on it.
         | 
         | "Farm" land, even in the SE is about 12K an acre, and you get
         | 6-8 houses to the acre so you should be able build a three bed
         | and sell it for PS50K on the outskirts of London, Cambridge,
         | Oxford or Brighton (just by example) still making a profit if
         | we liberalised planning in those areas. That shows you how
         | extreme this situation of fake constraint is.
         | 
         | It could therefore never be allowed to happen. The big house-
         | builders wouldn't build and sell at that price, the locals
         | wouldn't allow it as they've bought their houses for 500K, 10X
         | as much and would literally all go personally bankrupt...
        
         | gnfargbl wrote:
         | > I couldn't find one.
         | 
         | A parliamentary publication from 2018 estimated the uplift
         | factor to be 93x outside London and 287x inside [1]. Found via
         | ChatGPT.
         | 
         | I would think that the north-south variation has flattened a
         | little bit by now, but I can't immediately find any similar
         | document from the last couple of years.
         | 
         | [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads
         | /..., page 12.
         | 
         | [2] https://www.progressive-policy.net/publications/gathering-
         | th...
        
       | tiffanyh wrote:
       | A lot of time & effort went into that write-up.
       | 
       | I realize what I'm about to say will get backlash ... but I can't
       | help but think is the time to write this postmortem indicative of
       | how the business was run.
       | 
       | Meaning, who benefits from the output of this postmortem? Seems
       | like mostly strangers (who might not even live in UK).
       | 
       | What other time/effort/resources was spent on things that weren't
       | directly engaging with their customer ... because it seems
       | extremely clear without knowing much about that market that this
       | isn't a technical challenge per se - but a regulatory / social
       | problem and the modest amount of capital they raised won't even
       | scratch the service on solving this problem.
       | 
       | Note: not intending to be negative. It just seems like the
       | elephant in the room is that the team was so ill-prepared and not
       | understanding what actual problem they are solving - that my
       | heart goes out to them.
        
         | spacebanana7 wrote:
         | > this isn't a technical challenge per se - but a regulatory /
         | social problem and the modest amount of capital they raised
         | won't even scratch the service on solving this problem.
         | 
         | Stripe hasn't fully fixed online payments but still made a good
         | business of making things better.
         | 
         | At a high level, SaaS to help people filling out planning
         | permission forms sounds like a viable business. Many thousands
         | of people do this as their full time job, so their employers
         | might be willing to pay PS100 per user per month on something
         | that makes them more productive.
        
         | shalmanese wrote:
         | > Meaning, who benefits from the output of this postmortem?
         | Seems like mostly strangers (who might not even live in UK).
         | 
         | Seems to be a piece of content marketing intended to help the
         | two founders land a new role in the US so, in that sense, it
         | does seem pretty strategic and well targeted.
        
       | maxehmookau wrote:
       | > In May 2023, Tract was founded to build software to fix
       | Britain's housing crisis.
       | 
       | I mean, they took on a heck of a problem. At least they tried,
       | but I suspect it was an upward battle from day 0.
        
       | ejsdev wrote:
       | I wrote something similar to this last year - it was an
       | incredibly cathartic writing experience. It's extremely weird to
       | realise that you're hung up on a business venture from years
       | before, but made a lot of sense.
       | 
       | FWIW I am never doing a 3-way marketplace again, hellish.
       | 
       | If anyone is interested - https://edjs.dev/blog/my-first-startup/
        
       | shalmanese wrote:
       | When I coach startup founders, I walk them through a very simple
       | 4 step process when we meet:
       | 
       | 1. What have you learnt since we last met and how has that
       | altered your priors?
       | 
       | 2. What do you now believe is the most important problem you
       | should be solving?
       | 
       | 3. What's currently blocking you from solving that problem?
       | 
       | 4. How do we overcome those blocks?
       | 
       | Crucial to this process is that Q1 is not what have you _done_ ,
       | it's what have you _learnt_. I do not give a shit about anything
       | you 've done if it's not in the service of learning.
       | 
       | I also run a retro every 3 months with founders where we ask the
       | following questions:
       | 
       | 1. What would you want to tell yourself 3/6/12 months ago
       | (essentially, all the lessons learnt in italics) to save the
       | maximum amount of pain?
       | 
       | 2. When did you learn each specific thing?
       | 
       | 3. When was the earliest you could have learnt that thing?
       | 
       | 4. What changes can we make going forward to minimize that delta?
       | 
       | Extremely simple things but extraordinarily powerful when applied
       | consistently over a long enough span of time.
        
         | mrweiner wrote:
         | Thank you -- the way you frame this is helpful.
        
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