[HN Gopher] Kalshi CEO: 'State law doesn't really apply' to us
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       Kalshi CEO: 'State law doesn't really apply' to us
        
       Author : impish9208
       Score  : 14 points
       Date   : 2025-04-09 20:22 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (techcrunch.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (techcrunch.com)
        
       | brutal_chaos_ wrote:
       | Can you all help me understand this argument? We have stats upon
       | stats to help us predict outcomes in sports and we call that
       | betting. We have stats upon stats to help us predict outcomes in
       | elections, but we can't call that betting?
       | 
       | I admit I am out of depth here. What is the difference?
        
         | dmitrygr wrote:
         | > We have stats upon stats to help us predict outcomes in
         | elections
         | 
         | 2016 called
        
           | brutal_chaos_ wrote:
           | True, but it's still a bet, no?
        
         | TheCleric wrote:
         | In my opinion? Of course it's gambling. Where I would define
         | gambling as wagering money on a predefined event for a
         | predefined payout and little to no payout for the event not
         | occurring. In regards to where they got into it with the CFTC
         | (essentially being able to bet on elections) they pitched it as
         | essentially the same as other forecast markets that are legal
         | wherein you'd make the wager as a hedge against other financial
         | hardships. Bet on the thing you don't want to happen and either
         | you're happy it didn't or you get paid if it does. Though in
         | that way insurance is a bit like gambling.
         | 
         | This boils down, as far as I can tell, is the CFTC has
         | preliminarily been told that its authority to exclude these
         | kinds of contracts only apply to "gaming" and not "gambling"
         | (where gaming involves being a participant in a game of
         | stakes). So Kalshi is trying to say that essentially supersedes
         | state laws. I doubt that will hold water in the long run, but
         | you never know until a court rules.
        
       | xrd wrote:
       | I did not know about Kalshi until today. A blog I really like
       | pointed me to this discussion:
       | 
       | https://moontower.substack.com/p/dire-wolf
       | 
       | Also, I really like Michael Lewis's podcast about the rise of
       | sports gambling. My favorite episode is this one about a guy
       | named Rufus Peabody, who changed sports gambling with his data
       | driven approach.
       | 
       | https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/episode-4-...
       | 
       | The best line: "Theoretically? Theoretically a dick does not
       | fit..."
        
         | scrlk wrote:
         | > Rufus Peabody, who changed sports gambling with his data
         | driven approach
         | 
         | FWIW, quant sports betting trading firms have been around for a
         | long time, just that they tend to be extremely low key (bookies
         | ban people who win too much).
        
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       (page generated 2025-04-09 23:01 UTC)