[HN Gopher] A Man Out to Prove How Dumb AI Still Is
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       A Man Out to Prove How Dumb AI Still Is
        
       Author : fortran77
       Score  : 39 points
       Date   : 2025-04-04 21:09 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.theatlantic.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.theatlantic.com)
        
       | echelon wrote:
       | > When I spoke with him earlier this year, Chollet told me that
       | AI companies have long been "intellectually lazy"
       | 
       | s/intellectually lazy/hype maxing for fundraising/
        
         | refulgentis wrote:
         | I think it's fascinating that his impossible benchmark got
         | defeated, but because the Keras guy doesn't like LLMs, it is
         | possible to mishear algorithmic distaste as saying people
         | shipping this are "lazy" and "hype maxing."
        
           | artificialprint wrote:
           | Arc agi 1 that "got defeated" was published even before first
           | mainstream llms and still stood the test of time
        
             | refulgentis wrote:
             | "LLMs won't lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true
             | solution" - https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/francois-chollet -
             | 1.5 hours with the gent and Dwarkesh (June 2024, and by
             | December, well...we can all agree there's an ARC AGI 2 now)
        
           | whiplash451 wrote:
           | Francois never said he dislike LLMs. In fact, he said he
           | expected them to be part of the solution to ARC.
           | 
           | I don't know where this persistent myth comes from, but it
           | has to go.
        
             | refulgentis wrote:
             | > _part of_ the solution to ARC. I don't know where this
             | persistent myth comes from,
             | 
             | Part of, explicitly, not _the_ , quite 100% explicitly. The
             | TL;DR is "LLMs can't do it alone, program synthesis
             | leveraging LLMs is my bet". Not "Maybe not LLMs but they'll
             | certainly help us get there!", quite the opposite! Hence:
             | well, TFA. And the intellectually lazy quote we are
             | explicitly discussing. And anything Chollet has said on the
             | subject. [^1]
             | 
             | [^1]"LLMs won't lead to AGI - $1,000,000 Prize to find true
             | solution" - https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/francois-chollet -
             | 1.5 hours with the gent
        
       | andersco wrote:
       | https://archive.is/7PL2a
        
       | j_bum wrote:
       | > To hit 87 percent on the original ARC-AGI test, o3 spent
       | roughly 14 minutes per puzzle and, by my calculations, may have
       | required hundreds of thousands of dollars in computing and
       | electricity
       | 
       | > the bot came up with more than 1,000 possible answers per grid
       | before selecting a final submission.
       | 
       | Yeah, AGI is right around the corner... /s
        
         | HenryBemis wrote:
         | Let's all hope two things: 1) AGI is not near 2) Nobody ever
         | allows it to have physical presence 2b) should that happen,
         | expect the one idiot ask it to make "as many paperclips as
         | possible" :)
        
       | i_am_proteus wrote:
       | >Chollet, a French computer scientist and one of the industry's
       | sharpest skeptics
       | 
       | I feel like this description really buries the lede on Chollet's
       | expertise. (For those who don't know, he's the creator of and
       | lead contributor[0] to Keras)
       | 
       | [0]https://github.com/keras-team/keras/graphs/contributors
        
       | some_random wrote:
       | Calling Francois Chollet just "A Man" in the title (or "The Man"
       | in the actual article as of writing) is crazy work, he's been
       | deeply involved in ML for ages including creating Keras.
        
       | noosphr wrote:
       | >Last week, the ARC Prize team released an updated test, called
       | ARC-AGI-2, and it appears to have sent the AIs back to the
       | drawing board. The full o3 model has not yet been tested, but a
       | version of o1 dropped from 32 percent on the original puzzles to
       | just 3 percent on the new version, and a "mini" version of o3
       | currently available to the public dropped from roughly 30 percent
       | to below 2 percent. (An OpenAI spokesperson declined to say
       | whether the company plans to run the benchmark with o3.) Other
       | flagship models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have achieved
       | roughly 1 percent, if not lower. Human testers average about 60
       | percent.
       | 
       | Arc AGI is the main reason why I don't trust static bench marks.
       | 
       | If you don't have an essentially infinite set to draw your
       | validation data from then a large enough model will memorize it
       | as part of its developer teams KPIs.
       | 
       | Forget all these fancy benchmarks. If you want to saturate any
       | model today give it a string and a grammar and ask it to generate
       | the string from the grammar. I've had _every_ model fail this on
       | regular grammars with strings of more than 4 characters long.
       | 
       | LLMs are the solution to natural language, which is a huge deal.
       | They aren't the solution to reasoning which is still best solved
       | with what used to be called symbolic AI before it started
       | working, e.g. sat solvers.
        
         | mdp2021 wrote:
         | > _I 've had _every_ model fail this_
         | 
         | That seems to be because LLMs don't seem to be able to follow
         | procedures (e.g. reliably counting).
        
         | whiplash451 wrote:
         | Show me the results of your symbolic AI on ARC 2.
        
         | gambiting wrote:
         | >> If you want to saturate any model today give it a string and
         | a grammar and ask it to generate the string from the grammar.
         | 
         | I'm not sure I understand what that means - could you explain
         | please?
        
           | elpocko wrote:
           | I'm not GP, but here goes:
           | 
           | LLMs are token-based, which are words or word fragments; they
           | have limited ability to work on a letter-by-letter basis.
           | They can't reliably count letters in a sentence, for example.
           | "give it a string and a grammar and ask it to generate the
           | string from the grammar" can't be done by inference alone
           | because of this: they would generate tokens that don't match
           | the grammar.
           | 
           | But you can use a grammar-based sampler and it'll generate
           | valid strings just fine. llama.cpp can easily do this if you
           | provide an EBNF grammar specification.
        
           | janalsncm wrote:
           | It means applying specific rules about how text can be
           | generated. For example, generating valid json reliably.
           | Currently we use constrained decoding to accomplish this
           | (e.g. the next token _must_ be one of three valid options).
           | 
           | Now you can imagine giving an LLM arbitrary validity rules
           | for generating text. I think that's what they mean by
           | "grammar".
        
         | janalsncm wrote:
         | > best solved with what used to be called symbolic AI before it
         | started working
         | 
         | Right, the current paradigm of requiring an LLM to do arbitrary
         | digit multiplication will not work and we shouldn't need to. If
         | your task is "do X" and it can be _reliably_ accomplished with
         | "write a python program to do X" that's good enough as far as
         | I'm concerned. It's preferable, in fact.
         | 
         | Btw Chollet has said basically as much. He calls them "stored
         | programs" I think.
         | 
         | I think he is onto something. The right atomic to approach
         | these problems is probably not the token, at least at first.
         | Higher level abstraction should be refined to specific
         | components, similar to the concept of diffusion.
        
           | Ologn wrote:
           | Most human ten year olds in school can add two large numbers
           | together. If a connectionist network is supposed to model the
           | human brain, it should be able to do that. Maybe LLMs can do
           | a lot of things, but if they can't do that, then they're an
           | incomplete model of the human brain.
        
             | SpicyLemonZest wrote:
             | No LLM or other modern AI architecture I'm aware of is
             | supposed to model the human brain. Even if they were, LLMs
             | can add large numbers with the level of skill I'd expect
             | from a 10 year old:
             | 
             | ----
             | 
             | What's 494547645908151+7640745309351279642?
             | 
             | ChatGPT said: The sum of 494,547,645,908,151 and
             | 7,640,745,309,351,279,642 is:
             | 
             | 7,641,239,857,997,187,793
             | 
             | ----
             | 
             | (7,641,239,856,997,187,793 is the correct answer)
        
             | michaelmarkell wrote:
             | If I were to guess, most (adult) humans could not add two 3
             | digit numbers together with 100% accuracy. Maybe 99%?
             | Computers can already do 100%, so we should probably be
             | trying to figure out how to use language to extract the
             | numbers from stuff and send them off to computers to do the
             | calculations. Especially because in the real world most
             | numbers that matter are not just two digits addition
        
             | janalsncm wrote:
             | Artificial neural nets are pretty far from brains. We don't
             | use them because they are like brains, we use them because
             | they can approximate arbitrary functions given sufficient
             | data. In other words, they work.
        
           | mdp2021 wrote:
           | > _that's good enough as far as I'm concerned_
           | 
           | But in that case, why an LLM. If we want Question-Answer
           | machines to be reliable, they must have the skills which
           | include "counting" just as a basic example.
        
             | janalsncm wrote:
             | The purpose of the LLM would be to translate natural
             | language into computer language, not to do the calculation
             | itself.
        
       | mikestew wrote:
       | Not to dismiss Chollet's work, but I'm starting to think he need
       | prove nothing to even the muggles. For example, nearly any
       | endurance athlete stands a good chance of being a Strava user. If
       | you run in those circles, have you heard a _single_ person with
       | anything good to say about Strava's "Athletic Intelligence"?
       | Garmin is rolling out a beta right now that includes "AI
       | Insights" or summat. Same deal: useless summaries like "you ran 5
       | miles today, which contributes to your aerobic base". I could do
       | better with a database and some _if /else_ statements. And Garmin
       | wants a subscription for this. (It's included in Strava's
       | subscription, but I suppose you're still paying for it.) And so
       | now the memes tend toward "dumb AI insight of the day" on many
       | online forums.
       | 
       | Seems to me that a lot of folks are enjoying having an LLM
       | rewrite their email or whatever, but I wonder how many are
       | actually buying the rest of it? The companies themselves sure
       | aren't helping.
        
         | anthomtb wrote:
         | I use Strava for mountain biking and the Athletic Intelligence
         | is just comical.
         | 
         | "This ride was longer and harder than usual" - no sh*t, the
         | map, elevation profile and my legs have already informed me.
         | 
         | "You set 3 new PRs" - I can see that with one flick of the
         | thumb thank you.
         | 
         | "Consider a rest day" - consider? None of my job, spouse,
         | equipment or body is too keen on doing that again for a while.
        
       | mdp2021 wrote:
       | > _In 2019, Chollet created the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus
       | for Artificial General Intelligence, or ARC-AGI--an exam designed
       | to show the gulf between AI models' memorized answers and the
       | "fluid intelligence" that people have_
       | 
       | There are a number of skill signals we demand from an
       | intelligence.
       | 
       | Mind you: some of them are achieved - like the ability to
       | interpret pronouns (Hinton's "the trophy will not enter the case:
       | it's too big" vs "the trophy will not enter the case: it's too
       | small").
       | 
       | Others, we meet occasionally when we are not researching said
       | requirements systematically: one example is that detective game
       | described at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43284420 - a
       | simple game of logic that intelligences are required to be able
       | to solve (...and yet, again some rebutted that humans would fail
       | etc.).
       | 
       | It remains important though that those working modules are not
       | clustered (solving specific tasks and remaining unused
       | otherwise): they must be intellectual keys adapted into use in
       | the most general cases they can be be helpful in. That's
       | important in intelligence. So, even the ability to solve
       | "revealing" tasks is not enough - the way in which the ability
       | works is crucial.
        
       | HenryBemis wrote:
       | 1a) it's not AI, it's LLM. The companies who create/train/operate
       | them may (wink-wink) pitch them as "AI" with half-truths, but we
       | (here) know it's LLMs "all the way down"       1b) just like I
       | disliked the "autopilot" in Teslas because it was never
       | autopilot.       2) I know that I wanted to write some software
       | tools, and I have been successful at this for the past many
       | months, and I got top-shelve tools, that work, do their tasks,
       | send alerts, etc. etc. And I am not the only one. So if the
       | purpose is to "show it's a stupid AI".. well.. it's not AI.. so
       | yeah. If the purpose is "it is not perfect", yes, because it
       | draws a hand with 10 fingers. What else is new?
       | 
       | LLMs are a tool, still under development, still early in the
       | curve, they can do A-B-C well but not X-Y-Z well (or at all).
       | Congratulations :)
        
       | whiplash451 wrote:
       | Francois Chollet and his work deserve a better title than this
       | stupid headline.
       | 
       | Francois is out to push the boundaries of science and help create
       | models that are truly more intelligent.
        
       | mdp2021 wrote:
       | > _A person who scores 30 percent on ARC-AGI-2 is in no sense
       | inferior to someone who scores 90 percent_
       | 
       | "News just in: journalist for the Atlantic stops reasoning and
       | drifts in a world of feelings after neural hijacking, as he
       | perceives abilities as some kind of threat".
       | 
       | > _Human cognitive diversity [...] when that diversity is already
       | so abundant, do you really want to?_
       | 
       | We definitely need intelligence.
        
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